WEBVTT - SVB's Senate Hearing and Alibaba's Split

0:00:02.759 --> 0:00:06.000
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia for this Wednesday, March twenty

0:00:06.080 --> 0:00:09.200
<v Speaker 1>ninth in Hong Kong, Tuesday March twenty eighth in New

0:00:09.280 --> 0:00:12.800
<v Speaker 1>York and coming up today, top US financial officials outlined

0:00:12.840 --> 0:00:15.960
<v Speaker 1>what is likely to be the biggest regulatory overhaul of

0:00:16.000 --> 0:00:19.599
<v Speaker 1>the banking sector in years. Micron Technology gives a better

0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:23.639
<v Speaker 1>sales forecast than analysts had feared, and Ali Baba announces

0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:27.360
<v Speaker 1>plans to split its empire into six business units. A

0:00:27.560 --> 0:00:30.120
<v Speaker 1>US warship docs in South Korea for the first time

0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:34.280
<v Speaker 1>in sixty years. North Korean hackers posing as journalists gather

0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:38.120
<v Speaker 1>international intelligence. Biden says chip production must be done on

0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:44.520
<v Speaker 1>the US. I'm at Baxter with Global News. That's all

0:00:44.600 --> 0:00:48.159
<v Speaker 1>straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, the business news you

0:00:48.280 --> 0:00:51.120
<v Speaker 1>need to start your day in just one fifteen minute

0:00:51.159 --> 0:00:55.400
<v Speaker 1>podcast available on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg Business app and

0:00:55.560 --> 0:01:01.560
<v Speaker 1>everywhere you get your podcasts. Good morning, I'm Doug Prisoner

0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:04.760
<v Speaker 1>and I'm Brian Curtis. Here are the stories we're following today.

0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:08.440
<v Speaker 1>Top US financial officials outline what's likely to be the

0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:12.640
<v Speaker 1>biggest regulatory overhaul of the banking sector in years. That

0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:17.000
<v Speaker 1>Vice share for Supervision. Michael Barr, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg,

0:01:17.240 --> 0:01:21.800
<v Speaker 1>and Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nelly Leung all testified

0:01:21.840 --> 0:01:24.560
<v Speaker 1>before a Senate panel. They brought forth an initiative aimed

0:01:24.560 --> 0:01:27.880
<v Speaker 1>at addressing underlying issues that contributed to the collapse of

0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:32.240
<v Speaker 1>Silicon Valley Bank and other US lenders. Michael Barr outlined

0:01:32.319 --> 0:01:35.000
<v Speaker 1>future steps we need to move forward with our work

0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:38.000
<v Speaker 1>to improve the resilience of the banking system, including the

0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:41.880
<v Speaker 1>Basel three endgame reforms, a long term debt requirement for

0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:46.640
<v Speaker 1>large banks, and enhancements to stress testing with multiple scenarios.

0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:49.840
<v Speaker 1>We must also explore changes to our liquidity rules and

0:01:49.920 --> 0:01:53.040
<v Speaker 1>other reforms to improve the resilience of the financial system.

0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:56.720
<v Speaker 1>So a lot being considered here. Martin Gruenberg called for

0:01:56.880 --> 0:02:00.200
<v Speaker 1>serious attention to the capital requirements for the secure these

0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:03.559
<v Speaker 1>portfolios of banks with assets at higher than one hundred

0:02:03.560 --> 0:02:06.560
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars. He also said the FDIC would lay out

0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:11.000
<v Speaker 1>options for potential changes to deposit insurance coverage. At the

0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:14.079
<v Speaker 1>moment it's capped at two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Well.

0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:18.079
<v Speaker 1>The founder of the crypto exchange FTX Sam Bankman Freed,

0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:21.320
<v Speaker 1>is facing more criminal charges. He is now accused of

0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:26.480
<v Speaker 1>conspiring to bribe Chinese government officials. That story from Bloomberg's

0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:30.720
<v Speaker 1>Denis Pellegrini. Prosecutors alleged bankman Freed authorize bribing at least

0:02:30.760 --> 0:02:34.360
<v Speaker 1>one Chinese official with at least forty million dollars worth

0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:37.680
<v Speaker 1>of cryptocurrency in twenty twenty one, and the prosecutors say

0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:39.640
<v Speaker 1>this was all part of an attempt by bankman Freed

0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:43.000
<v Speaker 1>to get the officials to unfreeze accounts at Almeter Research,

0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:47.360
<v Speaker 1>a Hong Kong based trading firm affiliated with FTX. Those accounts,

0:02:47.400 --> 0:02:50.919
<v Speaker 1>they say held more than a billion dollars in cryptocurrency.

0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:53.960
<v Speaker 1>With this new charge of conspiracy to violate the Foreign

0:02:54.000 --> 0:02:58.679
<v Speaker 1>Corrupt Practices bankmen Freed now faces thirteen criminal accounts. He's

0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:02.240
<v Speaker 1>already pleaded not guilty to fraud related to bankrupt FTX

0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:05.799
<v Speaker 1>and Alameda. He's out unbailed. Trial scheduled for October. Denise

0:03:05.840 --> 0:03:10.840
<v Speaker 1>Peligudy Bloomberg day Breakasia, China's online commerce leader Ali Baba

0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:14.480
<v Speaker 1>announced plans to split its Empire into six business units.

0:03:14.800 --> 0:03:17.400
<v Speaker 1>The move free ump the company's main divisions from e

0:03:17.560 --> 0:03:21.000
<v Speaker 1>commerce and media to the cloud to operate with far

0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:24.960
<v Speaker 1>more autonomy. It also lays the foundation for future spinoffs

0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:28.440
<v Speaker 1>and market debuts. We heard earlier from Bloomberg Stephen Engel,

0:03:28.639 --> 0:03:32.040
<v Speaker 1>ali Baba has gone from an eight hundred billion valuated

0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:35.360
<v Speaker 1>company down to about two hundred and twenty billion, So

0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:38.920
<v Speaker 1>now they're going to kind of be reshuffled. Is this

0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:42.120
<v Speaker 1>at government order? We don't know. Is it going to

0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:46.840
<v Speaker 1>unlock more value than the pre breakup, if you will,

0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:49.760
<v Speaker 1>or pre at breakup? We don't know yet, a lot

0:03:49.760 --> 0:03:52.560
<v Speaker 1>of questions to be answered. Ali Baba's shift to a

0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:56.160
<v Speaker 1>holding company structure is rare for major Chinese tech firms,

0:03:56.440 --> 0:03:59.440
<v Speaker 1>and it could present a template for Ali Baba's peers

0:03:59.640 --> 0:04:04.080
<v Speaker 1>through China. Decentralizing Ali Baba's business lines and decision making

0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:08.520
<v Speaker 1>power also addresses one of Beijing's primary goals during it's

0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:11.120
<v Speaker 1>sweeping crackdown on the tech sector that was launched a

0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:14.800
<v Speaker 1>couple of years back. Ali baba eightrs closed fourteen point

0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:19.240
<v Speaker 1>three percent higher. But Steve's point, if you look at

0:04:19.279 --> 0:04:22.440
<v Speaker 1>the shares, they're trading around eighty four dollars and twenty

0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:25.640
<v Speaker 1>five cents in Hong Kong. They topped out over three hundreds,

0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:28.040
<v Speaker 1>So that's why a company that used to have an

0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:30.560
<v Speaker 1>eight hundred billion dollar valuation is now down in the

0:04:30.560 --> 0:04:33.160
<v Speaker 1>two hundred's done well after the bell Here in the US,

0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.480
<v Speaker 1>we heard from Micron Technology. The company gave a forecast

0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:39.760
<v Speaker 1>for the current quarter better than some analysts had feared.

0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:43.520
<v Speaker 1>That story from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett, Micron is the largest

0:04:43.600 --> 0:04:47.279
<v Speaker 1>American maker of memory chips, and the quarter is sparking hope,

0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:50.680
<v Speaker 1>but the worst of a brutal industry slump maybe over.

0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:54.200
<v Speaker 1>Micron said sales will be as much as three point

0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:57.680
<v Speaker 1>nine billion dollars in the fiscal third quarter. That compares

0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:00.640
<v Speaker 1>with an average of analysts estimates of three point seven

0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:06.000
<v Speaker 1>five billion. CEO Sonja Morotra said customer inventories are getting better,

0:05:06.240 --> 0:05:10.480
<v Speaker 1>and we expect gradual improvements to the industry's supply demand balance.

0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:14.279
<v Speaker 1>The forecast suggests the memory chip market may be poised

0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:18.119
<v Speaker 1>for a comeback after a rough stretch. In New York,

0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:22.920
<v Speaker 1>Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Daybreak, Asia, AMC shares rose more than

0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:27.640
<v Speaker 1>thirteen percent after the Intersect website reported that Amazon is

0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:31.080
<v Speaker 1>weighing a possible acquisition of the movie theater chain. AMC

0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:34.680
<v Speaker 1>has struggled financially as consumers have returned slowly to cinemas

0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:39.120
<v Speaker 1>after the pandemic. Bloomberg's Tom Giles says acquiring AMC would

0:05:39.160 --> 0:05:42.080
<v Speaker 1>be a win for Amazon. Amazon wants to make a

0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:45.680
<v Speaker 1>splash in Hollywood. They are spending more and more money

0:05:45.800 --> 0:05:52.240
<v Speaker 1>on big production shows and movies, and if you wanted

0:05:52.360 --> 0:05:58.040
<v Speaker 1>a traditional outlet for distribution of those movies as people

0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:02.039
<v Speaker 1>tentatively come back to theater, this is one way they

0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:05.560
<v Speaker 1>could do it. The Intersect website said that AMC theaters

0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.200
<v Speaker 1>could serve as a platform for the twelve to fifteen

0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:12.320
<v Speaker 1>movies that Amazon plans to release in cinemas every year.

0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:15.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm Brian Curtis along with Doug Krisner. Paul Allen will

0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:17.880
<v Speaker 1>join us in a few moments. So a big move

0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:20.800
<v Speaker 1>here by Ali Baba Doug. It gets a little bit

0:06:20.839 --> 0:06:24.560
<v Speaker 1>more interesting though, when we think about other big Chinese

0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:27.920
<v Speaker 1>tech companies. Ten Cent was up eight percent, JD up

0:06:28.000 --> 0:06:30.760
<v Speaker 1>four percent. On the one hand, they might benefit as

0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:33.520
<v Speaker 1>well in unlocking value. But on the other you know,

0:06:34.240 --> 0:06:39.440
<v Speaker 1>this move could provide a lots stiffer competition for these companies.

0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:42.360
<v Speaker 1>Some of the other companies by these specialized Boba Units

0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:45.480
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence said, for instance that may twine and C

0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:48.320
<v Speaker 1>might struggle a little bit. I would say this, no

0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:51.640
<v Speaker 1>matter what, Hong Kong looks to benefit from a lot

0:06:51.640 --> 0:06:55.000
<v Speaker 1>of lucrative IPOs coming, and I'd expect Hong Kong Exchanges

0:06:55.000 --> 0:06:58.240
<v Speaker 1>in clearing to probably do well in today's session. I

0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:00.440
<v Speaker 1>would say that's a safe at the other thing to

0:07:00.480 --> 0:07:02.680
<v Speaker 1>think about when it comes to competition, maybe this is

0:07:02.680 --> 0:07:05.960
<v Speaker 1>what Beijing would like to see because in that environment

0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:09.800
<v Speaker 1>of tougher competition, that's where the innovation comes. And I

0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:12.800
<v Speaker 1>think the government has already acknowledged the fact that innovation

0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:16.240
<v Speaker 1>is needed in order to drive the next level or

0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:19.880
<v Speaker 1>level of recovery in the Chinese economy. So maybe maybe

0:07:19.920 --> 0:07:22.160
<v Speaker 1>that's part of the design here. Brian. Yeah. And the

0:07:22.200 --> 0:07:24.920
<v Speaker 1>other big story that we obviously rolled out, and I'll

0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:26.720
<v Speaker 1>just pose a question to you and you can have

0:07:26.720 --> 0:07:30.680
<v Speaker 1>fun trying to answer it. Does the market want to

0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:34.800
<v Speaker 1>see more regulation of the banks or more punishment of

0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:37.400
<v Speaker 1>those who get themselves in trouble? Well, I think the

0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:40.520
<v Speaker 1>market probably was well prepared for the idea that we're

0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:43.559
<v Speaker 1>going to see tougher regulation, particularly for some of these

0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:46.800
<v Speaker 1>MidCap banks that have been flying underneath that two hundred

0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:51.640
<v Speaker 1>and fifty billion dollars level that was set when Dodd

0:07:51.680 --> 0:07:55.160
<v Speaker 1>Frank was revisited a couple of years back. So the

0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:57.920
<v Speaker 1>conversation now not only from Michael Barr, who is the

0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:00.720
<v Speaker 1>Vice Chair of Supervision at the FED, but Mark Gruenberg,

0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:05.000
<v Speaker 1>who is the Chair of the FDIC, talking about banks

0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:08.840
<v Speaker 1>with assets over one hundred billion needing serious attention. So

0:08:08.880 --> 0:08:11.040
<v Speaker 1>I think now that the market is kind of embracing

0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:12.880
<v Speaker 1>this idea and really, if at the end of the

0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:16.760
<v Speaker 1>day it means greater stability for the financial system, than

0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:18.320
<v Speaker 1>I think a number of people are going to be

0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:19.880
<v Speaker 1>on board with that. I think a lot of people

0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:23.600
<v Speaker 1>would also like to see more of a separate look

0:08:23.640 --> 0:08:28.240
<v Speaker 1>at regulation and supervision. Regulation is one thing, and they

0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:31.920
<v Speaker 1>may have to write some new laws, but the supervision

0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:34.880
<v Speaker 1>is something that should be like on an ongoing basis

0:08:35.240 --> 0:08:37.640
<v Speaker 1>and maybe should have gotten out in front of what

0:08:37.679 --> 0:08:41.320
<v Speaker 1>the management at Silicon Valley Bank was doing. It's something

0:08:41.360 --> 0:08:43.840
<v Speaker 1>that we can try to unlock further with our guest.

0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:47.439
<v Speaker 1>We have Christina Hooper coming up, chief Global market Strategist

0:08:47.559 --> 0:08:50.240
<v Speaker 1>at Invesco, and we'll be taking a closer look at

0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:53.160
<v Speaker 1>the markets now it's time for global news. Well, for

0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:56.400
<v Speaker 1>the first time in sixty years, a US Navy warship

0:08:56.520 --> 0:08:59.480
<v Speaker 1>has dopped at a South Korean port at Baxter has

0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:02.000
<v Speaker 1>Global News in the nine sixty. Newsman San Francisco ed,

0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:05.079
<v Speaker 1>yeah right, Brian, the US has an over seventy year

0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:09.280
<v Speaker 1>relationship history, but yes, it has been sixty years. Carrier

0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:12.160
<v Speaker 1>USS limits is in boosts on harbor as the two

0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:16.079
<v Speaker 1>nations carry on military drills and international waters. Captain Craig

0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:19.439
<v Speaker 1>Cicola says, an important mission if pour call reflects the

0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:23.160
<v Speaker 1>mutual interest and the share goals between our countries, just

0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:27.320
<v Speaker 1>to maintain peace, your dialogue and diplomacy. This is North

0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:31.439
<v Speaker 1>Korea has been banging the drum on growing nuclear capabilities. Meanwhile,

0:09:31.480 --> 0:09:34.720
<v Speaker 1>suspected North Korean hackers are posing as journalists and trying

0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:39.440
<v Speaker 1>to gather intelligence about international officials posing as journalists. From

0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:42.880
<v Speaker 1>the Voice of America, US President Joe Biden is kicking

0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:46.120
<v Speaker 1>off his Investing in America tour, making remarks at a

0:09:46.160 --> 0:09:48.880
<v Speaker 1>factory in North Carolina that he says is lined up

0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:52.600
<v Speaker 1>to make semiconductors. He says, Republicans are content with the

0:09:52.640 --> 0:09:55.360
<v Speaker 1>work being done elsewhere. You want to see our clean

0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:58.440
<v Speaker 1>energy future to China to make his dependent and overseas

0:09:58.480 --> 0:10:03.520
<v Speaker 1>supplies and supply chains, export jobs overseas, weaken our energy security.

0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:06.280
<v Speaker 1>And meanwhile, Biden also talked about getting an assault weapons

0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:09.959
<v Speaker 1>ban passed in Congress. Last year, we came together to

0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:13.079
<v Speaker 1>pass the most significant gun safety legislation in thirty years.

0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:16.719
<v Speaker 1>It was bipartisan. We got it done, and don't tell

0:10:16.760 --> 0:10:19.600
<v Speaker 1>me we can't do more together. So I again call

0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:23.240
<v Speaker 1>on Congress to pass the Sloman's Man about Republican Senator

0:10:23.320 --> 0:10:26.199
<v Speaker 1>John Tone says this is not the right time with

0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:31.360
<v Speaker 1>Nashville happening yesterday with respect to any discussion of legislation.

0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:36.120
<v Speaker 1>It's premature. There's an ongoing investigation, and I think we

0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:39.120
<v Speaker 1>need to let the facts come out fact well. Nashville

0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:43.800
<v Speaker 1>police chief says an investigation shows that the perpetrator owned

0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:48.160
<v Speaker 1>seven illegally purchased weapons, including semi automatic. Three of those

0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:55.000
<v Speaker 1>weapons were used yesterday doing the horrific tragedy that happened,

0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:58.800
<v Speaker 1>and says she was under mental healthcare programs. The wide

0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:01.720
<v Speaker 1>ranging hearings on the banking crisis who've been talking about

0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:04.920
<v Speaker 1>today brought to the four again long time bank regulation

0:11:05.000 --> 0:11:08.520
<v Speaker 1>critic Senator Elizabeth Warren showed what she said was an

0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:14.400
<v Speaker 1>example of lacks regulations. Xaminers were asking too many questions

0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:19.920
<v Speaker 1>that they should quote let us know, end quote. Now

0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:23.360
<v Speaker 1>there's a banking regulator who makes it clear that she

0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:25.800
<v Speaker 1>is there to serve the big banks instead of the

0:11:25.800 --> 0:11:28.960
<v Speaker 1>American public. Now, Warren wants to make sure that regulations

0:11:29.040 --> 0:11:32.240
<v Speaker 1>are changed for any bank holding more than one hundred

0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:35.880
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars in assets. Ukraine has a new voice for

0:11:35.960 --> 0:11:38.920
<v Speaker 1>its attack warning systems. Now, I want to let you know.

0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:42.480
<v Speaker 1>This is a demonstration. Okay, a demonstration. Now the voice

0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:54.320
<v Speaker 1>is that of Luke Skywalker, Mark Hamill. Attention, air raid alert.

0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:59.599
<v Speaker 1>Proceed to the nearest shelter. Don't be careless. Your overconfidence

0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:03.600
<v Speaker 1>is your weakness. And then the all clear. Attention, the

0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:07.640
<v Speaker 1>air alert is over. May the force be with you. Indeed,

0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:11.320
<v Speaker 1>Global News powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists

0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:13.920
<v Speaker 1>and analysts and over one hundred and twenty countries. In

0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:18.440
<v Speaker 1>San Francisco, I'm at Baxter and this is Bloomberg. Let's

0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:21.520
<v Speaker 1>get to our guest. Christina Hooper joins US chief Global

0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:26.600
<v Speaker 1>market Strategist at Invesco. Christina, the market must be doing

0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:29.880
<v Speaker 1>something right here in that it would appear that both

0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:33.120
<v Speaker 1>the bulls and the bears are kind of equally frustrated.

0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:37.200
<v Speaker 1>They're not getting their way. They're not but perhaps that's

0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:41.560
<v Speaker 1>a good thing, certainly better than some of the alternatives. Right.

0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:46.360
<v Speaker 1>The reality is there is a fair amount of confusion

0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:50.760
<v Speaker 1>about where the economy is going from here, are we

0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:55.559
<v Speaker 1>passed this mini banking crisis? And what will the FED

0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:59.760
<v Speaker 1>do going forward? So I think it's fair to expect

0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:03.400
<v Speaker 1>this kind of market environment. That's a question that we

0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:06.199
<v Speaker 1>actually should be putting to you, not you, Why do

0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:08.640
<v Speaker 1>you answer it? While you're at it? It was rhetorical,

0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:14.360
<v Speaker 1>but yes, So my expectation is that we're likely to

0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:18.600
<v Speaker 1>see the FED hike rates one more time now. I

0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:21.360
<v Speaker 1>think there's probably a slightly more than fifty percent chance

0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:24.000
<v Speaker 1>of that, and of course they are data dependent, so

0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:28.079
<v Speaker 1>that could change. But then I would expect the Fed

0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:30.880
<v Speaker 1>to hold it does not want to cut rates, and

0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:36.240
<v Speaker 1>unless we see a very significant deterioration in the US economy,

0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:40.320
<v Speaker 1>I don't think they will cut rates, at least not

0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:45.120
<v Speaker 1>in the next several months. Now. Of course, what happens

0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:50.400
<v Speaker 1>with markets, I think markets will get more comfortable the

0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:55.240
<v Speaker 1>more distance we have from the last banking issue that

0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:58.959
<v Speaker 1>popped up on. The more distance we have from that,

0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:02.640
<v Speaker 1>and once we get to a FED pause, I think

0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:05.160
<v Speaker 1>markets are going to start to look out and start

0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:11.520
<v Speaker 1>to anticipate in economic recovery next year and could move

0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:15.959
<v Speaker 1>into more of a risk on stance. That's certainly not

0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:19.880
<v Speaker 1>the case today, but that could change now. I do

0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:25.479
<v Speaker 1>think the economy experiences a downturn, possibly a mild recession

0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:27.360
<v Speaker 1>in the back half of this year, but I don't

0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:29.960
<v Speaker 1>think it's a deep recession. I don't think it's a

0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:34.440
<v Speaker 1>broad based recession, and I think we see an economic

0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:37.440
<v Speaker 1>recovery in twenty twenty four, just as markets are likely

0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:41.200
<v Speaker 1>to discount. And where do you stand on the inflation question?

0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:44.360
<v Speaker 1>Do you feel that the fight is getting towards the end,

0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:46.640
<v Speaker 1>the things are coming under control, especially when you consider

0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:49.080
<v Speaker 1>the lagging impact of the right hinks we've seen so far.

0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:52.360
<v Speaker 1>I think it's all about the lagging impact. I think

0:14:52.400 --> 0:14:57.320
<v Speaker 1>the FED is going to be satisfied enough with progress.

0:14:57.520 --> 0:15:00.560
<v Speaker 1>This is not going to be perfect. It's not going

0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:03.920
<v Speaker 1>to be an immaculate disinflation, but I do think we're

0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:06.640
<v Speaker 1>going to see significant progress this year, and it's going

0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:10.680
<v Speaker 1>to be enough to satisfy the Fed, hence the change

0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:14.160
<v Speaker 1>in position and the move to a pause. And speaking

0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:17.200
<v Speaker 1>of rhetorical questions, one that I pose to Doug earlier,

0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.480
<v Speaker 1>perhaps you heard it. Do you think the market wants

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:21.960
<v Speaker 1>to see more regulation of the banks here or would

0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:25.760
<v Speaker 1>they rather see more punishment of those who get themselves

0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:30.800
<v Speaker 1>in trouble. I don't think the market wants much more regulation,

0:15:30.880 --> 0:15:33.960
<v Speaker 1>but I think it's willing to tolerate smart regulation, and

0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:37.359
<v Speaker 1>so that's hopefully what we'll ultimately get. You know, sometimes

0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:41.320
<v Speaker 1>with regulation you can get overkill that's not very smart.

0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:47.320
<v Speaker 1>So I'm hoping for smart regulation that is both forward

0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:52.400
<v Speaker 1>looking and of course reacting to what's happened. Yeah, in

0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:55.280
<v Speaker 1>terms of regulation, there's quite a lot. If we take

0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:58.360
<v Speaker 1>a look at the dog Frankek for example, that's two thousand,

0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:02.479
<v Speaker 1>three hundred pages long. There are four hundred rules and mandates.

0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:06.320
<v Speaker 1>Is a question of there being enough regulation or perhaps

0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:09.760
<v Speaker 1>maybe too much, and is it not being enforced correctly? Well?

0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:12.240
<v Speaker 1>I think that if you were to write a post

0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 1>mortem on Dodd Frank, you'd largely say that it was

0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:20.560
<v Speaker 1>a success in terms of really addressing kind of the

0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:27.680
<v Speaker 1>key issues that impacted and caused the global financial crisis. Now,

0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:32.000
<v Speaker 1>one could argue and make a very good argument that

0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:34.400
<v Speaker 1>it was overkilled, that there was a lot more to

0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:36.680
<v Speaker 1>it than was necessary. But I think a lot of

0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:41.560
<v Speaker 1>the key elements have helped improve the environment and prevented

0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:45.560
<v Speaker 1>the kind of crisis we saw in two thousand and

0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:48.880
<v Speaker 1>seven through two thousand and nine. So Bloomberg listeners are

0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:53.000
<v Speaker 1>smart people. One in particular has a million dollars safely

0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:56.440
<v Speaker 1>tucked into four different accounts at banks. But once to

0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.480
<v Speaker 1>know what the Christina Hooper Blue Ribbon call is to

0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:02.040
<v Speaker 1>do with that money? Now, well, it all depends on

0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.479
<v Speaker 1>your time horizon, but I'm assuming that they have a

0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:07.639
<v Speaker 1>long time horizon, and so I would say it is

0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:12.879
<v Speaker 1>time to really think about one's exposure to a broad

0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:16.800
<v Speaker 1>array of asset classes. So certainly it's nice to have

0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:20.720
<v Speaker 1>keep one of those buckets in cash for now, but

0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:25.680
<v Speaker 1>start deploying the others into equities. I'm excited about equities

0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:29.359
<v Speaker 1>outside the US, particularly Asia em in this environment. I

0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:33.080
<v Speaker 1>think that China reopening is going well, and I think

0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:37.400
<v Speaker 1>it's going to exceed many people's expectations for this year,

0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:40.040
<v Speaker 1>and that will be a positive that will have a

0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:44.480
<v Speaker 1>halo effect for Asia EM in general within fixed income

0:17:44.560 --> 0:17:48.840
<v Speaker 1>investment grade credit. In terms of the emerging markets position,

0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:51.680
<v Speaker 1>we still have a persistently strong US dollar that would

0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:54.439
<v Speaker 1>rather way on EM. Do you see that changing? I

0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:58.000
<v Speaker 1>do think that's going to change, certainly. The US dollar

0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:03.480
<v Speaker 1>strength is typically a function of three things, right, interest

0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:10.000
<v Speaker 1>rate differentials, growth differentials, and of course the perceived need

0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:13.399
<v Speaker 1>for a safe haven asset class like the US dollar.

0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:16.879
<v Speaker 1>So we've gone through some difficult times recently, but I

0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:20.080
<v Speaker 1>would anticipate that as we move through the year that

0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:23.560
<v Speaker 1>is likely to change and we won't see the dollar

0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:27.040
<v Speaker 1>astrong okay in forty five seconds. This big move by

0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:30.960
<v Speaker 1>Ali Babat. Does that set a template for even American

0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:34.560
<v Speaker 1>big tech companies. Well, I certainly think there are technology

0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:42.720
<v Speaker 1>companies out there thinking about how to unleash opportunities, unleash

0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:45.800
<v Speaker 1>interests and excitement. I don't know if we're going to

0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:49.440
<v Speaker 1>see many follow that same path, but I'm sure it's

0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:53.960
<v Speaker 1>a consideration right now as it should be. This is

0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:56.760
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, your morning brief on. This story is

0:18:56.760 --> 0:18:59.920
<v Speaker 1>making news from Hong Kong to Singapore and Wall Street.

0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:04.320
<v Speaker 1>Look for US on your podcast feed every day on Apple, Spotify,

0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:07.800
<v Speaker 1>and anywhere else you get your podcast. You can also

0:19:07.840 --> 0:19:10.480
<v Speaker 1>listen live each day on Bloomberg eleven three zero in

0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:14.159
<v Speaker 1>New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one in Washington, Bloomberg one

0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:17.439
<v Speaker 1>oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine sixty in

0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:21.280
<v Speaker 1>San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available

0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:25.720
<v Speaker 1>on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg

0:19:25.800 --> 0:19:29.080
<v Speaker 1>eleven thirty plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg

0:19:29.119 --> 0:19:33.760
<v Speaker 1>Business app, Sirius XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeartRadio app,

0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:38.160
<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Brian Curtis and I'm Doug Prisoner.

0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:40.439
<v Speaker 1>Join us again tomorrow for all the news unique to

0:19:40.480 --> 0:19:45.240
<v Speaker 1>start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia