WEBVTT - Another Ugly Number 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:07.160 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one since 0:00:07.200 --> 0:00:12.520 coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. The 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:16.760 United States is on the doorstep of another tragic milestone, 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:22.520 two hundred thousand deaths in the country. We're still unpacking 0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:25.200 everything that has happened in the eight months since the 0:00:25.320 --> 0:00:29.200 virus hid its shores and where we go from here. 0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:40.239 But first, here's what happened in virus News today. Coronavirus 0:00:40.320 --> 0:00:43.720 vaccine shots will be ready for public use as early 0:00:43.800 --> 0:00:48.560 as November or December in China. That's what the country's 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:53.480 top bio safety scientist said this week. That timeline would 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:55.960 make the country one of the first in the world 0:00:56.200 --> 0:01:01.080 to distribute a vaccine. In an interview with State television 0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:05.440 on Tuesday, Woo Greisen, chief bio safety expert at China's 0:01:05.480 --> 0:01:09.720 Disease Control and Prevention Center, said final stage clinical trials 0:01:09.880 --> 0:01:15.039 of several vaccine candidates had progressed smoothly. She said she 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:18.600 had taken a vaccine shot in April herself and had 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:24.479 felt nothing abnormal. With the economic devastation of containment measures 0:01:24.520 --> 0:01:28.440 becoming too much to bear for many governments, political pressure 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:34.440 has grown on drugmakers to deliver vaccines quickly. London Mayor 0:01:34.520 --> 0:01:38.200 Sadiq Khan said further measures may be announced in the 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:41.840 next few days and weeks to contain infections in the 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:47.520 UK capital. The potential restrictions come as virus cases surge 0:01:47.760 --> 0:01:51.920 in the city. Estimates published on Friday suggest there were 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:55.720 six thousand new infections per day in the city last week. 0:01:56.440 --> 0:02:00.880 That's up from thirty two hundred the week before. Boris 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:06.680 Johnson's government extended coronavirus restrictions across northern England and the Midlands. 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:10.679 For the UK, the so called r rate, or how 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:14.799 many people each new COVID nineteen case infects, is now 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:19.200 as high as one point four. The government said that 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:24.880 suggests the spread is accelerating. Thailand reported its first death 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:29.440 from coronavirus since June second, two weeks after the nation 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:33.359 ended a streak of one hundred days without local transmission. 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:38.280 With the latest fatality, Thailand's total death told from the 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:44.519 pandemic rose to fifty nine. Thailand, which was the first 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:48.760 country outside China to detect the coronavirus, is among a 0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:51.960 handful of nations in the region which have managed to 0:02:52.000 --> 0:03:00.320 contain the pandemic. And now for today's main story, the 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:04.040 US will top two hundred thousand deaths from the novel 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:09.040 coronavirus in the next few days. It's a devastating milestone 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:13.320 that comes only weeks before a presidential election where the 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:17.800 virus response is front and center. The US has only 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:21.320 four percent of the world's population, but accounts for about 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:27.360 twenty one percent of global coronavirus deaths. The disparity underscores 0:03:27.400 --> 0:03:31.720 America's failure to contain a virus that hit New York 0:03:31.760 --> 0:03:36.280 City hardest in the spring, then blazed through populous states 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:41.080 like Texas, Florida, and California this summer. After New York 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:45.640 contained its infection, I spoke with reporter em A Court 0:03:45.840 --> 0:03:49.160 about what COVID nineteen in the US looks like now, 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:52.880 eight months after it was first found on American soil, 0:03:53.280 --> 0:04:00.360 and what we have learned about it since. So we're 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:03.200 about to hit a pretty dark milestone in the US 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:08.040 two deaths from COVID nineteen. I was wondering, could you 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:12.480 maybe just give us a little color on this grim statistic. 0:04:13.320 --> 0:04:15.880 It's honestly a point I think a lot of people 0:04:16.400 --> 0:04:19.000 hoped we would never get to and I think the 0:04:19.080 --> 0:04:22.040 fear now is where are we going to be at 0:04:22.040 --> 0:04:23.880 the end of the year. You know, how many deaths 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:26.560 are we going to be talking about in a couple 0:04:26.560 --> 0:04:29.800 of months time. I like to think of the pandemic 0:04:29.839 --> 0:04:32.680 in terms of phases. So earlier this year, we saw 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:35.560 New York City get hit really hard. We saw New 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:38.720 Jersey have really high numbers. We saw Seattle get hit 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:42.080 really hard early in the pandemic, and more recently over 0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:46.040 the summer, the burden of the virus really shifted towards 0:04:46.080 --> 0:04:50.480 these you know, southern and southwestern states that dominated the news. 0:04:50.560 --> 0:04:54.880 Right We had you know, Texas, Arizona, Florida, California. Really 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:58.680 the virus sort of blaze through those areas, and you know, 0:04:58.760 --> 0:05:02.080 fast forwarding to now to the fall. Uh. You know, 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:04.280 we've been talking about the fall as a time of 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:08.680 great concern for months now because schools are reopening, we're 0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:12.400 seeing colleges reopening, um, you know many in several parts 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:15.240 of the country, the temperatures are getting a lot cooler, 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:19.000 people are moving their socializing indoors, where obviously there's a 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:22.680 higher risk of the virus being transmitted. So when you 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:26.520 think about these different phases of the virus right now, 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:28.760 we're a little bit at a at an inflection point, 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:31.120 and we don't really know what's going to happen. We're 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:34.480 seeing those hotspots from the summer really dying down, and 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:38.480 that's reflected in overall the case numbers declining. We've seen 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:42.320 deaths decline as well. We have more understanding of the 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:45.880 public health measures that are needed to try to stop 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:49.280 the virus from spreading. But you know, whether we see 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:52.880 all this happen for a third time again is really 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:57.440 kind of up in the air now. Is it's a 0:05:57.560 --> 0:06:01.320 very grim number, but is there any doubt as to 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:05.520 its accuracy? There's a lot of doubt. I think we 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:09.360 can all agree that two hundred thousand is a floor 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:13.320 for death. So we know, you know, when we hit 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:17.120 this two hundred thousand number, it will be two official deaths. 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:20.000 But we also know that our our system hasn't, through 0:06:20.040 --> 0:06:22.680 the course of the pandemic, been very good at recognizing 0:06:22.800 --> 0:06:27.360 all coronavirus deaths for a variety of different reasons um 0:06:27.560 --> 0:06:31.120 And so we know, for instance, looking at CDC data, 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:35.560 that we have this marker called, you know, excess mortality, 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:39.360 and basically you look at historically how many deaths you've 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:41.680 had in a given year, and then you look at 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:44.480 how many deaths you've actually had this year. And we 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:48.839 know we've already seen more than two hundred thousand deaths 0:06:48.839 --> 0:06:51.760 occur this year than we were expecting, and so that 0:06:51.880 --> 0:06:55.680 might not all be COVID nineteen. By the way, Um, 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:59.200 you know, people were avoiding medical care for a long 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:03.000 time because they afraid of going to these virus written hospitals. 0:07:03.200 --> 0:07:06.039 They didn't want to get sick. We know people died 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:09.600 of heart attacks things like that at home. Unfortunately, so 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:13.520 this number isn't you know, it's not a hundred clear 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:18.400 exactly how this pans out, but we do know that unfortunately, 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:21.280 likely more than a hundred two hundred thousand people have 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:24.400 already died from this virus. I was wondering, if you 0:07:24.480 --> 0:07:28.360 might go into how does perhaps this two hundred thousand 0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:31.480 number or where the US is right now with COVID, 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:35.040 how does this relate to testing rates in the US. 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:40.440 Testing has remained a challenge in the US, and it 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:43.960 does obscure our view of the virus when we aren't 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:49.240 testing enough. We actually know testing has been declining each 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:52.440 week since the summer, and we're doing about you know, 0:07:52.480 --> 0:07:56.000 a million tests, uh, less than we were doing in 0:07:56.120 --> 0:08:00.760 July of the summer. So it's unclear whether when we 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:05.920 see cases decline we can be certain that it's entirely 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:10.160 because cases are declining and not because, uh, we're doing 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:13.600 less testing. So as always, that remains kind of a 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:16.840 fog through which we're viewing these numbers, and we can't 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:19.840 be totally sure. We have some other metrics we can 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:22.480 turn to to try to make sense of these numbers, 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:26.280 like test positivity rates. If test positivity rates are pretty high, 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:28.520 as we've seen, you know, just a couple of months 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:31.280 ago in the US, we know for sure that we're 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:35.040 probably not testing enough, but it's hard to know until 0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:37.520 you really see all this stuff pan out in terms 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:41.400 of hospitalization and death rates. And of course the issue 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:44.320 with that is these numbers come a lot down the road, 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:46.760 and by the time you know you're having a problem, 0:08:46.800 --> 0:08:49.240 you're you're kind of late to be doing anything to 0:08:49.320 --> 0:08:54.040 really stop it quickly. Now you've mentioned that the US 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:56.680 is really at an inflection point, and I was wondering 0:08:56.720 --> 0:08:59.040 if maybe we could talk a little bit more about 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:02.320 that in terms of the trajectory of the virus coming 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:05.000 off the summer. As you were mentioning into the fall, 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:09.360 what are the major concerns going into the next several 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:13.520 months or even say into one in terms of what 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:16.880 might be happening with the trajectory of the virus in 0:09:16.920 --> 0:09:20.400 the US. I think it can be really hard to 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:22.800 get a sense of where the U S is in 0:09:22.840 --> 0:09:26.319 this outbreak because it's all relative, right So things appear 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:29.520 to be on the upswaying from where they were the summer, 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:32.559 but things were really quite bad this summer. I mean, 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:34.960 if you look at you know, for instance, the Kaiser 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:39.520 Family Foundation, which is an independent nonprofit, maintains this map 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:42.040 of COVID nineteen hot spots in the U S. If 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.120 you look at the map today, you know, as of 0:09:44.120 --> 0:09:46.920 the time we take this, thirty three states were considered 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:49.760 hot spots. I mean, the country is you know, a 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:52.560 massive red right now if you look at this map. 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:56.080 So it's important to note, like we are still in 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:58.840 the trenches here. You know, things appear to be getting better, 0:09:58.880 --> 0:10:02.040 but it's all relative to where we were before. One 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:05.440 of the big concerns about this fall again is more 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:09.439 institutions are reopening. The weather in parts of the country 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:13.240 is getting cooler. People meeting indoors. And then, of course 0:10:13.240 --> 0:10:16.160 there's the fact that you know, traditionally we can have 0:10:16.240 --> 0:10:19.640 really bad flu seasons, and the symptoms of flu are 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:24.000 extremely similar the symptoms of COVID nineteen. And in a 0:10:24.080 --> 0:10:27.200 country where the medical infrastructure has already been placed under 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:30.679 strain by COVID nineteen, the chances of having a bad 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:34.000 flu season are are concerning, to say the least. I mean, 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:37.320 we've seen from other parts of the world that the 0:10:37.360 --> 0:10:41.720 flu seasons have actually been milder in many cases because 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:45.360 people are doing these things like social distancing and wearing masks. 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:48.560 So we know these measures, if we undertake them, will 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:52.000 not only prevent COVID nineteen from spreading, but also other 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:56.199 concerns like flu. But again, it's it is a concerning 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:59.880 time of year. There were beliefs that summer would be 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:04.000 a better time for the coronavirus crisis, and that just 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:06.840 didn't turn out to be true and and that's not 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:13.240 what happened. So let's look big picture. What does this 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:17.120 number two hundred thousand say. Do you think about the 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:22.240 US is overall response to COVID nineteen throughout this year? 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:28.160 It says we have done a very poor job of 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:31.040 containing this virus. You know, we have four percent of 0:11:31.080 --> 0:11:35.600 the world's population and about of global coronavirus deaths. I mean, 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:40.000 this is something that has to be taken really seriously, 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:44.840 you know, especially considering where these deaths have occurred, who 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:48.480 these deaths have affected. We know people with other medical 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:51.880 conditions have disproportionately died from this virus. We know elderly 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:54.320 people have died from this virus. We know people of 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:57.680 color have disproportionately died from this virus. We also know 0:11:57.760 --> 0:12:02.199 geographically that the virus deaths have been, you know, especially 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:06.120 concentrated in just about twelve states, and seventy percent more 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:09.520 than seventy of virus deaths in the US happened in 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:12.120 just twelve states, including some of the names that you 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:16.120 might assume you know in New York, California, Texas. It's 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:19.400 really striking when you think about this two number in 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:21.760 more death I mean, that is a really that's a 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:24.360 large number, and and it's an amount of deaths that 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:27.319 weren't we didn't expect to happen this year, right, I mean, 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.079 this is a new pandemic um. I think it can 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:33.400 be helpful to think about it in terms of even 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:37.400 just cities in the U S. So, um, you know, Yonkers, 0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:41.160 New York has a population of two people. Huntsville, Alabama, 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:43.480 has a population of two people. I mean, we're talking 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:48.160 about an entire city die basically, if if you think 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:54.760 about it in just geographic terms. Is there any good 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:58.920 news for folks looking for some regarding COVID nineteen in 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:01.400 the US. I think you can see good news in 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:04.880 a couple of places. I mean, from a public health perspective, 0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:08.800 I would say the good news is we do know 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:11.400 what the right thing is to do, even though it's 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:13.840 hard to do and it's hard to sustain for such 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:17.640 a long period of time. Where now eight months into 0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:20.880 a virus that was first confirmed on US soil back 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:24.360 in late January, right, I think it's almost become a 0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:26.160 bit of a cliche at this point. We know you're 0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:27.880 supposed to wear a mask, we know you're supposed to 0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:31.240 social distance, wash your hands, all that good stuff. But 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:33.880 we do know that we have that information and we 0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:36.680 have the ability. You know, most of us hopefully have 0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:39.360 the ability to adhere to these things, and not everyone 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:42.520 because of their circumstances and jobs and things like that, 0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:46.600 but intrinsically that's positive because that's information that we can 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:49.120 use and we can put to good use. There's also 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:52.720 encouraging news, I think on the vaccine front, although it's 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:56.520 still very much remains to be seen whether these experimental 0:13:57.080 --> 0:14:01.440 drugs are going to be effective and safe for Americans 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:04.800 and for the global population. I think there's a real 0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:08.600 effort from the private sector to try to find a 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:11.880 solution to this. But I think we've seen the public 0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:15.960 health response to this lag behind. And what does that 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:18.560 say about America. I think it says a lot about 0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:21.480 you know, where we invest, where our priorities have been 0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:24.360 historically um and it gives us the opportunity to do 0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:32.000 better that was in the corps. And that's it for 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:34.720 our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:40.240 bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.600 and if you like the show, please leave us a 0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:47.680 review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:51.000 the best way to help more listeners find our global reporting. 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:55.520 The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Top for fourheads 0:14:55.680 --> 0:15:01.360 Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:05.920 story was reported by Emma Court. Original music by Leo Sigrin. 0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:11.080 Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. Francesca Leavi 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:14.680 is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.