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Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one since

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Speaker 1: coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. The

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Speaker 1: United States is on the doorstep of another tragic milestone,

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Speaker 1: two hundred thousand deaths in the country. We're still unpacking

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Speaker 1: everything that has happened in the eight months since the

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Speaker 1: virus hid its shores and where we go from here.

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Speaker 1: But first, here's what happened in virus News today. Coronavirus

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Speaker 1: vaccine shots will be ready for public use as early

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Speaker 1: as November or December in China. That's what the country's

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Speaker 1: top bio safety scientist said this week. That timeline would

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Speaker 1: make the country one of the first in the world

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Speaker 1: to distribute a vaccine. In an interview with State television

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday, Woo Greisen, chief bio safety expert at China's

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Speaker 1: Disease Control and Prevention Center, said final stage clinical trials

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Speaker 1: of several vaccine candidates had progressed smoothly. She said she

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Speaker 1: had taken a vaccine shot in April herself and had

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Speaker 1: felt nothing abnormal. With the economic devastation of containment measures

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Speaker 1: becoming too much to bear for many governments, political pressure

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Speaker 1: has grown on drugmakers to deliver vaccines quickly. London Mayor

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Speaker 1: Sadiq Khan said further measures may be announced in the

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Speaker 1: next few days and weeks to contain infections in the

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Speaker 1: UK capital. The potential restrictions come as virus cases surge

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Speaker 1: in the city. Estimates published on Friday suggest there were

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Speaker 1: six thousand new infections per day in the city last week.

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Speaker 1: That's up from thirty two hundred the week before. Boris

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Speaker 1: Johnson's government extended coronavirus restrictions across northern England and the Midlands.

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Speaker 1: For the UK, the so called r rate, or how

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Speaker 1: many people each new COVID nineteen case infects, is now

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Speaker 1: as high as one point four. The government said that

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Speaker 1: suggests the spread is accelerating. Thailand reported its first death

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Speaker 1: from coronavirus since June second, two weeks after the nation

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Speaker 1: ended a streak of one hundred days without local transmission.

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Speaker 1: With the latest fatality, Thailand's total death told from the

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Speaker 1: pandemic rose to fifty nine. Thailand, which was the first

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Speaker 1: country outside China to detect the coronavirus, is among a

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Speaker 1: handful of nations in the region which have managed to

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Speaker 1: contain the pandemic. And now for today's main story, the

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Speaker 1: US will top two hundred thousand deaths from the novel

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Speaker 1: coronavirus in the next few days. It's a devastating milestone

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Speaker 1: that comes only weeks before a presidential election where the

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Speaker 1: virus response is front and center. The US has only

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Speaker 1: four percent of the world's population, but accounts for about

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Speaker 1: twenty one percent of global coronavirus deaths. The disparity underscores

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Speaker 1: America's failure to contain a virus that hit New York

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Speaker 1: City hardest in the spring, then blazed through populous states

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Speaker 1: like Texas, Florida, and California this summer. After New York

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Speaker 1: contained its infection, I spoke with reporter em A Court

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Speaker 1: about what COVID nineteen in the US looks like now,

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Speaker 1: eight months after it was first found on American soil,

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Speaker 1: and what we have learned about it since. So we're

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Speaker 1: about to hit a pretty dark milestone in the US

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Speaker 1: two deaths from COVID nineteen. I was wondering, could you

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Speaker 1: maybe just give us a little color on this grim statistic.

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Speaker 1: It's honestly a point I think a lot of people

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Speaker 1: hoped we would never get to and I think the

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Speaker 1: fear now is where are we going to be at

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Speaker 1: the end of the year. You know, how many deaths

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Speaker 1: are we going to be talking about in a couple

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Speaker 1: of months time. I like to think of the pandemic

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Speaker 1: in terms of phases. So earlier this year, we saw

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Speaker 1: New York City get hit really hard. We saw New

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Speaker 1: Jersey have really high numbers. We saw Seattle get hit

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Speaker 1: really hard early in the pandemic, and more recently over

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Speaker 1: the summer, the burden of the virus really shifted towards

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Speaker 1: these you know, southern and southwestern states that dominated the news.

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Speaker 1: Right We had you know, Texas, Arizona, Florida, California. Really

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Speaker 1: the virus sort of blaze through those areas, and you know,

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Speaker 1: fast forwarding to now to the fall. Uh. You know,

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Speaker 1: we've been talking about the fall as a time of

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Speaker 1: great concern for months now because schools are reopening, we're

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Speaker 1: seeing colleges reopening, um, you know many in several parts

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Speaker 1: of the country, the temperatures are getting a lot cooler,

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Speaker 1: people are moving their socializing indoors, where obviously there's a

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Speaker 1: higher risk of the virus being transmitted. So when you

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Speaker 1: think about these different phases of the virus right now,

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Speaker 1: we're a little bit at a at an inflection point,

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Speaker 1: and we don't really know what's going to happen. We're

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Speaker 1: seeing those hotspots from the summer really dying down, and

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Speaker 1: that's reflected in overall the case numbers declining. We've seen

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Speaker 1: deaths decline as well. We have more understanding of the

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Speaker 1: public health measures that are needed to try to stop

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Speaker 1: the virus from spreading. But you know, whether we see

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Speaker 1: all this happen for a third time again is really

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Speaker 1: kind of up in the air now. Is it's a

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Speaker 1: very grim number, but is there any doubt as to

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Speaker 1: its accuracy? There's a lot of doubt. I think we

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Speaker 1: can all agree that two hundred thousand is a floor

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Speaker 1: for death. So we know, you know, when we hit

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Speaker 1: this two hundred thousand number, it will be two official deaths.

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Speaker 1: But we also know that our our system hasn't, through

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Speaker 1: the course of the pandemic, been very good at recognizing

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Speaker 1: all coronavirus deaths for a variety of different reasons um

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Speaker 1: And so we know, for instance, looking at CDC data,

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Speaker 1: that we have this marker called, you know, excess mortality,

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Speaker 1: and basically you look at historically how many deaths you've

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Speaker 1: had in a given year, and then you look at

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Speaker 1: how many deaths you've actually had this year. And we

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Speaker 1: know we've already seen more than two hundred thousand deaths

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Speaker 1: occur this year than we were expecting, and so that

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Speaker 1: might not all be COVID nineteen. By the way, Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, people were avoiding medical care for a long

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Speaker 1: time because they afraid of going to these virus written hospitals.

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Speaker 1: They didn't want to get sick. We know people died

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Speaker 1: of heart attacks things like that at home. Unfortunately, so

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Speaker 1: this number isn't you know, it's not a hundred clear

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Speaker 1: exactly how this pans out, but we do know that unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: likely more than a hundred two hundred thousand people have

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Speaker 1: already died from this virus. I was wondering, if you

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Speaker 1: might go into how does perhaps this two hundred thousand

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Speaker 1: number or where the US is right now with COVID,

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Speaker 1: how does this relate to testing rates in the US.

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Speaker 1: Testing has remained a challenge in the US, and it

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Speaker 1: does obscure our view of the virus when we aren't

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Speaker 1: testing enough. We actually know testing has been declining each

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Speaker 1: week since the summer, and we're doing about you know,

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Speaker 1: a million tests, uh, less than we were doing in

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Speaker 1: July of the summer. So it's unclear whether when we

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Speaker 1: see cases decline we can be certain that it's entirely

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Speaker 1: because cases are declining and not because, uh, we're doing

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Speaker 1: less testing. So as always, that remains kind of a

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Speaker 1: fog through which we're viewing these numbers, and we can't

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Speaker 1: be totally sure. We have some other metrics we can

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Speaker 1: turn to to try to make sense of these numbers,

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Speaker 1: like test positivity rates. If test positivity rates are pretty high,

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Speaker 1: as we've seen, you know, just a couple of months

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Speaker 1: ago in the US, we know for sure that we're

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Speaker 1: probably not testing enough, but it's hard to know until

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Speaker 1: you really see all this stuff pan out in terms

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Speaker 1: of hospitalization and death rates. And of course the issue

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Speaker 1: with that is these numbers come a lot down the road,

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Speaker 1: and by the time you know you're having a problem,

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Speaker 1: you're you're kind of late to be doing anything to

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Speaker 1: really stop it quickly. Now you've mentioned that the US

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Speaker 1: is really at an inflection point, and I was wondering

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Speaker 1: if maybe we could talk a little bit more about

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Speaker 1: that in terms of the trajectory of the virus coming

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Speaker 1: off the summer. As you were mentioning into the fall,

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Speaker 1: what are the major concerns going into the next several

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Speaker 1: months or even say into one in terms of what

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Speaker 1: might be happening with the trajectory of the virus in

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Speaker 1: the US. I think it can be really hard to

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Speaker 1: get a sense of where the U S is in

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Speaker 1: this outbreak because it's all relative, right So things appear

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Speaker 1: to be on the upswaying from where they were the summer,

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Speaker 1: but things were really quite bad this summer. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you look at you know, for instance, the Kaiser

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Speaker 1: Family Foundation, which is an independent nonprofit, maintains this map

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Speaker 1: of COVID nineteen hot spots in the U S. If

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Speaker 1: you look at the map today, you know, as of

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Speaker 1: the time we take this, thirty three states were considered

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Speaker 1: hot spots. I mean, the country is you know, a

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Speaker 1: massive red right now if you look at this map.

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Speaker 1: So it's important to note, like we are still in

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Speaker 1: the trenches here. You know, things appear to be getting better,

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Speaker 1: but it's all relative to where we were before. One

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Speaker 1: of the big concerns about this fall again is more

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Speaker 1: institutions are reopening. The weather in parts of the country

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Speaker 1: is getting cooler. People meeting indoors. And then, of course

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Speaker 1: there's the fact that you know, traditionally we can have

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Speaker 1: really bad flu seasons, and the symptoms of flu are

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Speaker 1: extremely similar the symptoms of COVID nineteen. And in a

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Speaker 1: country where the medical infrastructure has already been placed under

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Speaker 1: strain by COVID nineteen, the chances of having a bad

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Speaker 1: flu season are are concerning, to say the least. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we've seen from other parts of the world that the

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Speaker 1: flu seasons have actually been milder in many cases because

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Speaker 1: people are doing these things like social distancing and wearing masks.

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Speaker 1: So we know these measures, if we undertake them, will

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Speaker 1: not only prevent COVID nineteen from spreading, but also other

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Speaker 1: concerns like flu. But again, it's it is a concerning

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Speaker 1: time of year. There were beliefs that summer would be

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Speaker 1: a better time for the coronavirus crisis, and that just

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Speaker 1: didn't turn out to be true and and that's not

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Speaker 1: what happened. So let's look big picture. What does this

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Speaker 1: number two hundred thousand say. Do you think about the

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Speaker 1: US is overall response to COVID nineteen throughout this year?

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Speaker 1: It says we have done a very poor job of

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Speaker 1: containing this virus. You know, we have four percent of

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Speaker 1: the world's population and about of global coronavirus deaths. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is something that has to be taken really seriously,

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Speaker 1: you know, especially considering where these deaths have occurred, who

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Speaker 1: these deaths have affected. We know people with other medical

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Speaker 1: conditions have disproportionately died from this virus. We know elderly

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Speaker 1: people have died from this virus. We know people of

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Speaker 1: color have disproportionately died from this virus. We also know

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Speaker 1: geographically that the virus deaths have been, you know, especially

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Speaker 1: concentrated in just about twelve states, and seventy percent more

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Speaker 1: than seventy of virus deaths in the US happened in

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Speaker 1: just twelve states, including some of the names that you

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Speaker 1: might assume you know in New York, California, Texas. It's

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Speaker 1: really striking when you think about this two number in

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Speaker 1: more death I mean, that is a really that's a

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Speaker 1: large number, and and it's an amount of deaths that

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Speaker 1: weren't we didn't expect to happen this year, right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is a new pandemic um. I think it can

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Speaker 1: be helpful to think about it in terms of even

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Speaker 1: just cities in the U S. So, um, you know, Yonkers,

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Speaker 1: New York has a population of two people. Huntsville, Alabama,

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Speaker 1: has a population of two people. I mean, we're talking

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Speaker 1: about an entire city die basically, if if you think

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Speaker 1: about it in just geographic terms. Is there any good

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Speaker 1: news for folks looking for some regarding COVID nineteen in

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Speaker 1: the US. I think you can see good news in

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Speaker 1: a couple of places. I mean, from a public health perspective,

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Speaker 1: I would say the good news is we do know

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Speaker 1: what the right thing is to do, even though it's

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Speaker 1: hard to do and it's hard to sustain for such

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Speaker 1: a long period of time. Where now eight months into

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Speaker 1: a virus that was first confirmed on US soil back

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Speaker 1: in late January, right, I think it's almost become a

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Speaker 1: bit of a cliche at this point. We know you're

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Speaker 1: supposed to wear a mask, we know you're supposed to

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Speaker 1: social distance, wash your hands, all that good stuff. But

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Speaker 1: we do know that we have that information and we

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Speaker 1: have the ability. You know, most of us hopefully have

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Speaker 1: the ability to adhere to these things, and not everyone

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Speaker 1: because of their circumstances and jobs and things like that,

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Speaker 1: but intrinsically that's positive because that's information that we can

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Speaker 1: use and we can put to good use. There's also

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Speaker 1: encouraging news, I think on the vaccine front, although it's

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Speaker 1: still very much remains to be seen whether these experimental

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Speaker 1: drugs are going to be effective and safe for Americans

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Speaker 1: and for the global population. I think there's a real

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Speaker 1: effort from the private sector to try to find a

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Speaker 1: solution to this. But I think we've seen the public

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Speaker 1: health response to this lag behind. And what does that

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Speaker 1: say about America. I think it says a lot about

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Speaker 1: you know, where we invest, where our priorities have been

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Speaker 1: historically um and it gives us the opportunity to do

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Speaker 1: better that was in the corps. And that's it for

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Speaker 1: our show today. For coverage of the outbreak from one

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Speaker 1: bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus

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Speaker 1: and if you like the show, please leave us a

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Speaker 1: review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's

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Speaker 1: the best way to help more listeners find our global reporting.

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Speaker 1: The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Top for fourheads

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Speaker 1: Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main

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Speaker 1: story was reported by Emma Court. Original music by Leo Sigrin.

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Speaker 1: Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. Francesca Leavi

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.