1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:10,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: Daybreak Aisia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. You can join Brian 3 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: Curtis and myself for the stories, making news and moving 4 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: markets in the APAC region. You can subscribe to the 5 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: show anywhere you get your podcast and always on Bloomberg Radio, 6 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. 7 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 2: Taiwan's president or in president elect, Lijingda is to be 8 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 2: sworn in as president today and that will put him 9 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 2: right at the center of very difficult relations between the 10 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:40,919 Speaker 2: United States and China. And joining us for some discussion 11 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:43,279 Speaker 2: of this is Ron A Mitter, who is Professor of 12 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 2: US Asia Relations at the Harvard Kennedy School, to get 13 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 2: some insights on this. So, by most accounts, Leijingda is 14 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 2: likely to make a speech today that would be one 15 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 2: of continuity, but there's always the chance that there'll be 16 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 2: some thing in there that rocks the boat. What are 17 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 2: you expecting in terms of the tone. 18 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 3: Well, I think Brian that he's going to try and 19 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 3: pump up the volume a little bit when it comes 20 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 3: to the question of Taiwan being separated from the mainland. 21 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 3: His predecessor who's just leaving office president saying one was 22 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 3: pretty careful to make sure that she didn't trigger that 23 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 3: red line, which Beijing has always said is going to 24 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 3: be the trigger for an all out opposition by them, 25 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 3: and that is, of course, the decoration of independence by Taiwan. Now, 26 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 3: I think it's highly unlikely that lightingder As the new president, 27 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 3: is going to actually utter the I word of independence, 28 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 3: but he may try and use language that's a bit 29 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 3: more forceful than that of his predecessor. That having been said, 30 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 3: I'm sure that there will have been extremely strong signals 31 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 3: from the United States from the Biden administration, but he 32 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 3: should not try and upset the current status quo, particularly 33 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 3: since mainland mainland China's relations with the US have been 34 00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 3: getting better in the last year, and so while they're 35 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 3: going to be stronger rhetoric, I don't expect to hear 36 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 3: any difference in terms of Taiwan's policy. 37 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: Mister Lai managed to get around forty percent of the 38 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 1: popular vote, so there is not a strong mandate, is there. 39 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 3: Well, forty percent is pretty strong. I think there are 40 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 3: an awful lot of politicians who would like to have 41 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 3: that In the context of Taiwan, which is three major 42 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 3: candidates all coming together. It is certainly the case that 43 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:26,799 Speaker 3: if the two candidates who lost, Coen Jur and Ho 44 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:30,239 Speaker 3: Yui had actually managed to get together with their respective 45 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 3: parties and run together against him, then it's possible he 46 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 3: might have lost. But that having been said, he can 47 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 3: certainly go back and say he actually does have the 48 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 3: presidential mandate because he's got a lot more votes than 49 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 3: either of the other two. His problem is a little 50 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 3: bit similar to the one in the US at the moment, 51 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 3: which is that even though he has the presidency, Congress 52 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:53,920 Speaker 3: is split. Essentially the opposition KMT Nationalist Party does have 53 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 3: a very significant number of seats, pretty much actually slightly 54 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:00,519 Speaker 3: more I think one more than the ruling DPP in 55 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 3: the presidency actually has, and that means that it may 56 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,959 Speaker 3: be hard to get legislation through Taiwan's Congress, even though 57 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 3: lighting the does have the presidency in his hands. 58 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 2: Professor, I'm curious about the nuanced line between declaring independence 59 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 2: and stating that we already have independence, because that's basically 60 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 2: what William Lai has been saying. He's pushing for the 61 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 2: status quo. The status quo is de facto independence. So 62 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 2: how nervous would China be if he starts talking about 63 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 2: that in great detail? And even if it isn't a 64 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 2: declaration officially, it's statement that we have it. 65 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 3: Well, that phrasing of we don't need to declare independence 66 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 3: because essentially we have it already was actually used in 67 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 3: the form by saying one his predecessor as well, so 68 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 3: it's not completely new in that sense. I think that 69 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 3: Beijing is getting more and more nervous about the idea 70 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 3: that there might be any kind of formal separation, and 71 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 3: that's why we've seen, in fact, just today that there 72 00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 3: have been yet more sorties of fighter craft in the skies, 73 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 3: not quite above the island, but certainly quite close to it. 74 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 3: And they've made it very clear again that they regard 75 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 3: any statement that goes in the direction of independence to 76 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 3: be one that they would consider a trigger warning from 77 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 3: their point of view. That said, it is certainly the 78 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 3: case that they've acknowledged for a long time that Taiwan 79 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 3: has been autonomous. That might be a better word to 80 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 3: use than independent. And the question now comes as to 81 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 3: how long they're willing to tolerate something that looks genuinely 82 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 3: like the status quo. In other words, that Taiwan will 83 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,159 Speaker 3: not get and probably won't move very hard to seek 84 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 3: formal independence for its status, but rather seek to try 85 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:41,599 Speaker 3: and find, say, international organizations such as the WTO or 86 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 3: sections of the United Nations, where it can have a 87 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 3: sort of substate role. There are precedents for other entities 88 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 3: which are not fully recognized states getting some sort of 89 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 3: recognition in international organizations. The question is whether Beijing will 90 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 3: consider that now part of its red line. 91 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: So what does this mean for the United Sis dates, 92 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 1: particularly in the context of a US presidential election at 93 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: the end of this year that may say a change 94 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 1: in administrations, but. 95 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 3: The rest of this calendar year. My guess is that 96 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 3: it's pretty much baked into the calculations on both the 97 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 3: side of Beijing and of Washington. In other words, they 98 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 3: know that both sides have known that this inauguration was 99 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 3: going to happen. The election actually happened four months ago 100 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 3: in January, and what's happened so far has not produced 101 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:30,480 Speaker 3: any great surprises since then. Also, both sides essentially don't 102 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 3: have a great interest in raising the temperature on US 103 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,919 Speaker 3: China relations more broadly, in the run up to that 104 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 3: presidential election. Essentially, the Chinese side know that if President 105 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:44,479 Speaker 3: Biden is re elected that at that point they're going 106 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:46,159 Speaker 3: to have to work out how they'll deal with the 107 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 3: timeline question over the four years after that, in the 108 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 3: face of an administration which has made it very clear that 109 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,839 Speaker 3: it does continue the consider the continued status quoa of 110 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 3: Taiwan to be a core US interest. If President Trump 111 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 3: is re elected, then I think the general sense from 112 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 3: the Beijing side is that they're not sure what he 113 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 3: might do, anything from actually doubling down on harsh words 114 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 3: or actions with China to maybe being less involved as 115 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 3: a sort of more isolationist position from the outside world. 116 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 3: And so from that point of view, Beijing will speak 117 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 3: strong language, it will send those fighter planes into the 118 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 3: skies near Taiwan, but it's unlikely to want to trigger 119 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 3: any kind of major confrontation now before it knows the 120 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 3: result of that US presidential election. 121 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 2: Everything we've seen in the past is that Taiwan people 122 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:37,239 Speaker 2: would not in any way support becoming a part of China. 123 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 2: I mean, that's the sense of things. And you talked 124 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 2: about autonomy. How much has what's happened to Hong Kong 125 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 2: hurt China in the eyes of Taiwan people, losing its 126 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:52,839 Speaker 2: semi autonomous status here right, I. 127 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:54,799 Speaker 3: Mean the parting of the National Security Law in twenty 128 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 3: twenty in Hong Kong had an extremely negative effect on 129 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 3: impressions of getting closed to China in Taiwan, and in fact, 130 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 3: in the previous presidential election back in twenty twenty, which 131 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 3: was held in the kind of shadow of that Hong 132 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 3: Kong National Security Law, Taiing Ian was essentially able to 133 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 3: get reelection in large part by citing the example of 134 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 3: Hong Kong. But there are other means of getting close. 135 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 3: Political closeness, as you've said, is something that most Taiwanese 136 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 3: people don't seem to want to have. They prefer a 137 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 3: version of the status quo. But something like eighty percent 138 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 3: of Taiwan's businesses are in some way tied to the mainland, 139 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 3: and the mainland has shown certainly in the last few 140 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 3: months that it's capable of operating partial boycotts or sanctions 141 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 3: against Taiwanese goods. It could be pineapples, it could be chemicals. 142 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 3: Both of those have been hit recently to show that 143 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 3: if it wants to squeeze Taiwan's economy, then it has 144 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 3: the capacity to do that. I would look to that 145 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 3: sort of area, or for instance, companies like fox Conn, 146 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 3: run by a Taiwan millionaire, Terry Gull, but operating largely 147 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 3: in factories on the south coast of China, for where 148 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 3: Beijing may choose to squeeze less on the military front, 149 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 3: probably more on the economic front. 150 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: Professor, what do we know about the cabinet of the 151 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 1: incoming president? Who is he surrounding himself with. 152 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 3: Well, he does have, amongst others, people who know the 153 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 3: United States very well, including Vice President be Kim, who 154 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 3: is of course someone who has American family and is 155 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 3: very well known in Washington. In addition, it's fairly likely 156 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 3: that he's going to push hard on domestic economic issues 157 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 3: with his cabinet, one of the reasons being that although 158 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 3: one of the factors that most analysts would say led 159 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 3: to his reelection was the fear of the opposition parties 160 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 3: getting too close to China, at least on the part 161 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 3: of forty percent of the voters, there is a lot 162 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 3: of dissatisfaction within Taiwan itself about the state of the economy, 163 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 3: and because of that, issues such as youth unemployment, for instance, 164 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:59,439 Speaker 3: it's going to be important for Li's government to essentially 165 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,439 Speaker 3: come up with more economic growth. So figures like Selby 166 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:05,440 Speaker 3: Kim will be important in terms of US relations, but 167 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 3: the domestic economy and domestic politics will probably be much 168 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,080 Speaker 3: more at the center of what happens in the next 169 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 3: four years than it might appear on inauguration day itself, 170 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 3: when obviously attention is much more on what Beijing is 171 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 3: going to do. 172 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 2: Excellent stuff. Thank you very much. Professor Professor Roni Mitter, 173 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 2: Professor of US Asia Relations at Harvard Kennedy School, joining 174 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 2: us in our studios for a closer look at China 175 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 2: and indeed the Asia Pacific is Fred Newman, Chief Asia 176 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 2: Economist and co head of Global Research for Asia at HSBC. 177 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 2: So Frederick, thank you very much for joining us here 178 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,320 Speaker 2: in our studios. As usual, let's start off with China, 179 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,439 Speaker 2: looking at some of the measures of late Again, we're 180 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 2: hearing from economists that you know, it's a step in 181 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 2: the right direction, but it may not be enough, and 182 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 2: you know the chasm is huge and such. Your thoughts 183 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 2: on the developments we saw at the end of last weekend, 184 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 2: whether they might. 185 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,719 Speaker 4: Work well, it's not the magic bullet that we've been 186 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:11,680 Speaker 4: ho we'revoping for. But look, they're taking new measures. That is, 187 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 4: they had rolled out new tools to actually address the 188 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 4: housing problem. Now you could say the money they put 189 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 4: behind is not large enough, but at least they're thinking 190 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 4: a little bit outside the box. For example, they brought 191 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 4: a new central bank tool. The Central Bank will provide 192 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:32,080 Speaker 4: money at very low interest rates to commercial banks to 193 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 4: buy excess housing. We hadn't had that specific program before. 194 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 4: And so the hope is here that look that at 195 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 4: least they're opening the toolbox a little bit, and that 196 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:44,839 Speaker 4: would give them then the potential opening to add further 197 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 4: funds in the future. But certainly in themselves, this is 198 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 4: not going to solve the housing crisis. And once we fell, swoop. 199 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: Okay, So let's say that we're going to get incremental 200 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:57,080 Speaker 1: steps over in the future, something of the same order 201 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,080 Speaker 1: of magnitude. How many years is going to take fred 202 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 1: for China to get out from underneath this problem? 203 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:08,439 Speaker 4: Well, look, we already three years, three plus years into this, 204 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 4: and you think that housing market corrections magnitude would take 205 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 4: five six years with the economy to fully digest. So 206 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 4: I would say we're looking another couple of years here 207 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 4: at least before you really can say the housing crisis 208 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 4: behind us, and that's you know, that's in the US. 209 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:28,199 Speaker 4: It took many years as well for this to be digested. That. 210 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,319 Speaker 4: The thing though, at the moment, is we yet need 211 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 4: to stop the bleeding. We're not even talking about recovery. 212 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 4: We still talking about prices falling, We're still talking about 213 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:40,679 Speaker 4: housing construction being under pressure, we still talk about demand falling. 214 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 4: We just want to arrest those downward trends, stabilize things, 215 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:46,559 Speaker 4: and then it's going to take another couple of years 216 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 4: before you see things really accelerate again. 217 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 2: The ultra long sovereign bond sales, which you know is 218 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 2: going to be done in several trenches, walk us through 219 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 2: the mechanism for mean, because what it seems like is 220 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 2: that it's the federal govern you know, raising money and 221 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 2: enabling local provinces to buy up some of these unsold homes. 222 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 2: What's the transmission mechanism? How does that money move from 223 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 2: the federal to the provincial governments. 224 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 4: Well, we're not quite clear exactly how much of that 225 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:19,319 Speaker 4: money will be put towards housing purchases, right, so it's 226 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:21,560 Speaker 4: a bit of a black box. Nevertheless, we know that 227 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 4: the government's saying we need to raise more money. We 228 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 4: need to essentially put more money into the economy, be 229 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 4: it in housing or be it in other infrastructure projects 230 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:34,400 Speaker 4: for example. So by putting out long term bonds, you 231 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 4: really try to raise money essentially for the long term. 232 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 4: You're not going to attack short term money markets. It 233 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 4: aims at a different class of investors, and it's really 234 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 4: trying to establish long term funding mechanisms that local governments 235 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 4: and ultimately could use as well. So that's the idea. 236 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 4: It's going to building a long term funding market. It's 237 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 4: less so that the money is all going to be 238 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 4: available for housing purchases. 239 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 1: So let's say maybe we're at the halfway point in 240 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: terms of the recovery for the property market in China, 241 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: and then once we get, you know, fully through this 242 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 1: period of recovery, maybe we can talk about kind of 243 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:11,480 Speaker 1: a recovery in the broader economy. But I'd like to 244 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 1: talk a little bit about what's going on in Taiwan. 245 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: The installation of a new president will happen later today. 246 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 1: One of the things that we were talking about over 247 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:24,199 Speaker 1: the weekend, Brian and myself, we know that semiconductor manufacturing 248 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 1: is very, very concentrated in Taiwan. TSMC obviously the largest 249 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,599 Speaker 1: player globally. I think ninety percent of the chips in 250 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,560 Speaker 1: the world come out of out of that manufacturing facility. 251 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 1: But as countries like the US and maybe countries in 252 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: Europe seek to diversify, so it's not so concentrated. What 253 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 1: is the economic future for Taiwan if companies like TSMC 254 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,559 Speaker 1: begin to lose their heft. 255 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 4: Well, it's certainly a big headwind for the Taiwanese economy 256 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 4: because of course semiconductor advanced semiconductor manufacturing is you write, 257 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 4: is the driving force of the Taiwanese economy, and so 258 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 4: losing those fabs to other countries would certainly be a setback. 259 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 4: But make no mistake, the Taiwanese economy is much larger 260 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 4: than this. Yes, they have spectacular advances in high end chips, 261 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 4: but it's very concentrated to one company, a couple of factories. 262 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 4: It's not like thousands of workers work there. It's a 263 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 4: big profit driver, but it doesn't really employ that many people. 264 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 4: So if you just talk about overall economic growth, the 265 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 4: direct significance isn't that large. It's more significant because it 266 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 4: gives other companies in Taiwan access to advanced semiconductors. But 267 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 4: I would argue that ultimately Taiwan has a fairly diversified economy. 268 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 4: We always talk about chips, but there's petrochemicals, there's electronics, 269 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 4: there's other types of manufacturing, and you know, ultimately it 270 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 4: is a very small island's only twenty million people. They 271 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 4: need to if their companies want to grow, they have 272 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 4: to grow overseas. They can't just grow domestically, right, So 273 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 4: there's a limit to which you can actually expand capacity 274 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 4: Taiwan anyway, So it's not necessarily deathnel here to the 275 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 4: Tawanese economy. 276 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 2: Well, I'm curious though, whether or not you think that 277 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 2: Taiwan plays a bigger role in between China and the 278 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 2: United States, or whether or not it continues to be 279 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 2: sort of there in the background, a potential danger, but 280 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 2: not playing such an active role. So that's the first 281 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 2: part of the question. The second part is in China's 282 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 2: response to the US so far, it's been more words 283 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 2: than actions. Do you expect more in terms of. 284 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 4: Actions, maybe in terms of the protection on the trade side, Yeah, yes, 285 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 4: some of those things. Yeah, Well on that first, so 286 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 4: we have seen actually the Chinese so far actually not 287 00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 4: taken much action against the US lying low and they're 288 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 4: just taking on the Chin and they're still open for 289 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 4: US companies to do business in China. But visa of 290 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 4: a Europe, we've actually seen the Chinese start to say, 291 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 4: if you start to impose these measures, we may have 292 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 4: to retaliate. So they're a bit more aggressive visa of 293 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 4: a Europe because they don't want Europe to follow the United States. 294 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 4: The other thing that the Chinese could alter do is 295 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 4: they could make a life for US companies in China 296 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 4: much much harder. That's not on the cards yet, and 297 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 4: so far they want US companies to be involved. But 298 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 4: of course if there is a you know, if there's 299 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 4: an opportunity then to kind of pay back the US 300 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 4: by shutting out US companies, I think that might be 301 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 4: sort of the next way to do it. In terms 302 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 4: of Taiwan, I think it's going to play more of 303 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 4: a backstory here. The temperature has declined, you know, around Taiwan, 304 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 4: and so we'll have to see how the US election 305 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 4: shapes up. That's of course always a point where you 306 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 4: could see escalating tensions. But I think broadly speaking, things 307 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 4: are not quite as acute as some of the headlines suggests. 308 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: You know you read the news. I mean China preparing 309 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 1: to take countermeasures against the European Union if it continues 310 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 1: a series of investigations around subsidies. We were talking a 311 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: moment ago about the Canadian Trade Minister looking at the 312 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: possibility of tariffs on Chinese evs. We know what we 313 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 1: heard last week from the Bike administration when it came 314 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 1: to new tariffs on Chinese goods. Do you are you 315 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:07,959 Speaker 1: worried about a new trade war, or at least a 316 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:08,880 Speaker 1: hotter trade war. 317 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 5: Yes. 318 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 4: I think the worrying trend here is that if the 319 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:16,639 Speaker 4: US imposes restrictions, other countries will start to follow. And 320 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 4: there's a certain logic to this, because if the US 321 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:22,919 Speaker 4: says no thank you to Chinese electric vehicles, and these 322 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 4: vehicles are being redirected into other markets and they necessarily 323 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 4: get overwhelmed, and then they start to pose restrictions as well, 324 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 4: And so the risk is that you have a cascading 325 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:34,959 Speaker 4: effect here with the European Union, in Canada and everybody 326 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:38,400 Speaker 4: else it's following the US. And that's not necessarily good 327 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 4: for the world economy. It's not necessarily good for consumers, 328 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,919 Speaker 4: and so we want to kind of contain trade restrictions 329 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,239 Speaker 4: to a bare minimum. It doesn't say that they're not 330 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 4: justifications in some instances, but remember, any disruption to trade 331 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 4: is ultimately a negative for the world economies, a negative 332 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 4: for consumer for consumer choice, and so the hope is 333 00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 4: that other countries will become a bit more judicious in 334 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 4: terms of their application of these measures than kind of 335 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:07,879 Speaker 4: using brute force. 336 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 2: Are we about to see the yen play a more 337 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 2: important role in the global economy and are you expecting 338 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 2: to see weakness in the dollar anytime soon? 339 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 4: So yen is unlikely to play a stronger role. It's 340 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 4: so much pressure at the moment. I don't think it 341 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 4: will re establish itself as a reserve currency necessarily anytime soon. 342 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 4: And there's pressures on the en remain quite severe. That's 343 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 4: because US interest rates are sky high and Japanese interest 344 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 4: rates are what they are, and so there is probably 345 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 4: ongoing pressure in the Japanese end. The Japanese Center Bank 346 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 4: is trying to push back against this, allowing yields to 347 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 4: rise to kind of slow down to this end of 348 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,120 Speaker 4: the Japanese end. But remember a weaker Japanese end plays 349 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 4: a functional role in Japan's reflation. It raises inflation, it 350 00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 4: raises competitiveness, and that's ultimately good for Japan. 351 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 2: All right, Frederick, thank you for coming into our studios 352 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 2: and joining us here on a Monday morning. We do 353 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 2: appreciate it. Fred Newman, Chief Asia Economist and co head 354 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 2: of Global Research for Asia at HSBC. 355 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 1: Let's take a closer look at the President of Iran 356 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:26,399 Speaker 1: at this helicopter crash. Michael Heath joins us Bloomberg ecogov editor, 357 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:30,159 Speaker 1: joining us from our studios in Sydney. Michael, I know 358 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 1: it's still early in this event. We have information kind 359 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 1: of trickling in even before the announcement of this crash, though, 360 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say that relations between Tehran 361 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:45,920 Speaker 1: and Washington were very, very strained. Do we know anything 362 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 1: about what's happening in Iran right now? Irrespective of the 363 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 1: search for the crash site. 364 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 5: The pictures that are being broadcast on I run in 365 00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 5: safe TV and mainly of people either either praying for 366 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 5: the health of the president or obviously emergency vehicles heading 367 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:10,160 Speaker 5: up to the area. As to the higher level politics 368 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 5: of it, it doesn't seem to have been a great 369 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 5: deal said. The US has announced that President Biden has 370 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 5: been briefed on it, but it's very very unclear sort 371 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,959 Speaker 5: of the status of it. Was it just a hard landing, 372 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,680 Speaker 5: is it something more serious, It's just unknown at the moment. 373 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 5: That's a particularly mountainous part of Iran, and obviously the 374 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 5: pictures have shown very very thick fog there as well 375 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:37,679 Speaker 5: in rain. So really we're just as you say, the 376 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 5: little bits and bobs of information are trickling out, but 377 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 5: until we get something official, it's really just speculation. At 378 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 5: this stage. 379 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,919 Speaker 2: We understand that Iran asked Turkey to send a rescue 380 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 2: helicopter and one with night vision capabilities. It looks to 381 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,920 Speaker 2: be very close to the border. Do we know whether 382 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 2: this crashes on the Iranian side or on the Turkysh side. 383 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,360 Speaker 5: It seems to be on the Iran inside. I mean 384 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 5: that area is actually also known as Azerbaijan. It's said 385 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,119 Speaker 5: to have crashed in East Azerbaijan. So you've got the 386 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 5: Republic of Azerbaijan former Soviet republic, and then you've got 387 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 5: in northwest Iran, you've got another region called Azerbaijan, and 388 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 5: there's west and East and so it does seem to 389 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,199 Speaker 5: have happened just over the border inside Iran, but the 390 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 5: area is known as Azerbaijan. But he was flying back 391 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 5: that those three helicopters involved in the three helicopters, one 392 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 5: of the which was containing the president, was flying back 393 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 5: after the opening of a dam between Azerbaijan and Iran 394 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 5: as they sort of try and warm relations between the 395 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 5: two sides. As well. 396 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 1: In terms of the person of mister Raisi, I think 397 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 1: he's an ultra conservative cleric. He's obviously the president of 398 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 1: the country, and many analysts believe that he was being 399 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 1: groomed to become the next supreme leader of Iran. So 400 00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,959 Speaker 1: obviously with his absence, I mean that that would lead 401 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 1: a huge void. 402 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:03,120 Speaker 4: It would it would. 403 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,960 Speaker 5: I mean, look, in the worst case scenario, it does 404 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 5: really open up a lot of questions because obviously the 405 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:12,480 Speaker 5: Supreme Leader, who is the ultimate authority in Iran. Unlike 406 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 5: other countries where the presidents sort of head of state, 407 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 5: in Iran, it's the supreme leader, you know, sort of 408 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 5: the religious leader of this theocracy. But as you say, 409 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 5: race he was being he was well known to be groomed, 410 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,400 Speaker 5: being groomed potentially to take over a Supreme Leader at 411 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 5: some point, so yes, that that would rule will him 412 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:33,919 Speaker 5: out and then of course you under the constitution at 413 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 5: this stage you'd have the first vice President who would 414 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 5: step into his role, and then there would be a 415 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 5: group of guardians who would come together and within fifty 416 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 5: days they'd be they'd be expected to hold elections. But 417 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,120 Speaker 5: you're right, I mean, if if if he's he's sort 418 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 5: of had quite a meteoric assent through the through the 419 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 5: ranks in Iran, and if that was the ultimate goal 420 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 5: for him, it really would open up a gap avoid 421 00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 5: in terms of the succession planning there. 422 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 2: In addition to Ibrahim Raisi. Do we know much about 423 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 2: who else was board the flight? 424 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,919 Speaker 5: Yeah, we know the Foreign minister was on there, and 425 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 5: then there was there were some guards, There was a 426 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,639 Speaker 5: representative of the Supreme Leader from the region where they 427 00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,359 Speaker 5: were they were flying over, and the governor there is 428 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,679 Speaker 5: my understanding as well. That's about all the detail that 429 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 5: we have, but yeah, it was it was a three 430 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:29,200 Speaker 5: three helicopter convoy and as you were reported in the news, 431 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 5: it seems that it's the President's the president's helicopter that's 432 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 5: had the hard landing there. But Yeah, we're really really 433 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 5: fed on information or detail at this stage. 434 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 1: We appreciate it nonetheless, Michael for your insight and perspective. 435 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 1: Michael Heath, Bloomberg ecogov editor, joining us from Sydney, talking 436 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 1: about the helicopter crash. The flight carrying Iranian President Raisi 437 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:54,639 Speaker 1: and his foreign minister which crashed on Sunday in the 438 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,959 Speaker 1: Mountainous Area North in the northwest portion of Iran. 439 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing to the 440 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 2: stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 441 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more 442 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 2: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to 443 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,439 Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 444 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,879 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 445 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:24,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.