1 00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:08,639 Speaker 1: Al Zone Media, No Bell Prize, Welcome to it could 2 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:12,480 Speaker 1: happen here a podcast about Nobel Prizes. 3 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:16,159 Speaker 2: I guess I'm your host. VA wog with Me with Me? 4 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,760 Speaker 3: Is James Heimia excited to hear about the dynamite guy prices. 5 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:22,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, so as people I think are aware. 6 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 4: The man who invented dynamite established a bunch of prizes 7 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 4: to be like the pinnacle of human achievement. Right, every 8 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 4: years decided I'm a bunch of judges and you know, 9 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:34,599 Speaker 4: and this year in the Nobel Prize in Physics, right, 10 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 4: Nobel Prize in Physics went to two guys who did 11 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:41,480 Speaker 4: a whole bunch of the sort of fundamental basic work 12 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 4: on what became machine learning algorithms. And as annoying as 13 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 4: modern AI is, like machine learning algorithms has fundamentally changed 14 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 4: the way that science works. It changed the strong and 15 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 4: I've used it. I used the new astronomy like there's 16 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 4: all this, you know, it has fundamentally changed the way 17 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 4: that humanity functions. 18 00:00:57,560 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an important discovery. 19 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, the Nobel Prize in Medicine went 20 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 4: to a group of people who discovered micro RNA, which 21 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 4: is like a different type of RNA that fundamentally changed 22 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 4: the way that we understand how like gene regulation works. 23 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:19,479 Speaker 4: This is like a fundamental path breaking thing in biology. 24 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 4: They got that, They got the fucking medicine Noble price 25 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 4: for the Nobel Prize in economics went to three guys 26 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 4: who discovered that institutions affect prosperity. 27 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 2: Huge groundbreaking shit. 28 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 3: It's like economists don't discover shit, they just they just 29 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 3: say shit, and then other economists are like, yeah, cool. 30 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:42,320 Speaker 2: This is okay. 31 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 4: So when I was originally platting this episode, this is 32 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 4: going to be an episode about the fake Nobel Prize, 33 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 4: which is the economics Nobel Prize, which you've talked about 34 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 4: on the show before. But it's worth saying again this 35 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 4: is not a real Nobel Prize, Like, this is not 36 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 4: one of the prizes that was established by Alfred Nobel. 37 00:01:56,960 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 4: This was a thing established by the sweetest central at 38 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 4: as a way to push neoliberal economics new classical economics. 39 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 4: And every year they're always very stupid. It is the thing, right, 40 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 4: And and my plan for this episode because I started 41 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:13,639 Speaker 4: seeing stuff about this Nobel Prize and I was looking 42 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 4: at this and I was like, this is the this 43 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:16,839 Speaker 4: is the one of the dumbest ones they've had since 44 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 4: they gave out one in the two thousands for realizing 45 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 4: that people could simply not make a trade. Like but 46 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 4: I was like, Okay, I'm going to go read all 47 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 4: of these papers, right, we're gonna come back, We're gonna 48 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:28,919 Speaker 4: have a detail analysis of it. 49 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 2: And and I'm reading these papers and it's like it's nothing. 50 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 4: These three economists are They're from what's called institutional economics. 51 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 4: These are supposed to be the smart ones, right, these 52 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 4: are These are the economists that like the neoclassical economists 53 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 4: have to bring in, like the normal neoclassical econmomts have 54 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 4: to bring in because their models don't work right. And 55 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 4: the thing and the thing that makes them like quote 56 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 4: unquote smart is that they understand the institutions exist, and 57 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 4: they know how to use really really basic game theory models. 58 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 4: And this makes them like the cutting edge, the absolute 59 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 4: elite cutting edge of borgewiw economics, the front lines. 60 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 2: What are these people discovered? 61 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 4: I wanted to people win this prize for, right, Okay, 62 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 4: the thing that they won this prize for, like the 63 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 4: initial thing, and there's a couple of stuff that we'll 64 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 4: get you in a second. But like, the big thing 65 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 4: that they figured out is do a series of thunderously 66 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:19,399 Speaker 4: stupid regression analyzes. 67 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:21,360 Speaker 2: They discovered something. 68 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 4: I don't even know how to frame the magnitude of 69 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,360 Speaker 4: this discovery, but it took them a shit ton of 70 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 4: math and like a bunch of like tabulations of mortality 71 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 4: data to discover that in some places European colonial powers 72 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 4: formed settler colonies and in some places they established a 73 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 4: colonial rule that wasn't based on settler colonies, and that 74 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 4: these were different. This is what they won the Nobel 75 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 4: Prize for. They did a bunch of regression analyzes and 76 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 4: were like, holy shit, in some places the Europeans did 77 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 4: setular qualities and in some places they didn't, and it 78 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 4: had to do with like disease and a level of 79 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 4: redictance from the indigenous population. They want a Nobel Prize 80 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 4: in economics for this? Are you fucking kidding? 81 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 3: Also also a paper that you could write for my 82 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 3: history one ten class at community cottage. 83 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,720 Speaker 4: Okay, some of the discourse about this, right, the Marxist 84 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:22,799 Speaker 4: economist Sharamazar pointed out that like these fundamental observations were 85 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 4: made by another guy we've talked about on this show 86 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 4: the Red Again Marxist economist Paul Baran. 87 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 2: And that's a good point. 88 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 4: But also what I was thinking about how to do 89 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 4: this episode, right, This isn't a thing like with like 90 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 4: Donald Harris, Like we talked about Kamal Harris's dad's book, right, 91 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 4: and that's that's a book where there's there's like ideas 92 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:44,919 Speaker 4: in it, right, Right, you can go through it and 93 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 4: you can watch them developing ideas. You can't do that 94 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:51,039 Speaker 4: with this because these people are not developing ideas. They 95 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 4: have discovered the most obvious things. They have read a 96 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 4: single book about history, and they have attempted to use 97 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,280 Speaker 4: a bunch of regression analyzes to prove things that like 98 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 4: you can just read a Wikipedia article and discover about 99 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:05,480 Speaker 4: the course of colonization. 100 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, and then you can go back and to 101 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,119 Speaker 3: a bunch of aggression otities to produce something that everyone 102 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 3: already needs. 103 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 2: Yeah. 104 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 4: And the place that I got to about this is 105 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 4: I have the shoke about Maoism where all the things 106 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 4: that people get from Maoism are things that you should 107 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 4: have learned in elementary school. Like one of the most 108 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 4: common things you get from Maoists like, ah, you have 109 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 4: to read no investigation, no right to speak and like 110 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:31,719 Speaker 4: my friend, Okay, if you needed Maose Dung to tell 111 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 4: you that you needed to you needed to research something 112 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 4: before you talked about it. What the fuck happened in 113 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 4: your like the rest of your life? Wrong with your life? 114 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 4: What we're wrong with your education? Like what has gone 115 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:47,599 Speaker 4: wrong with the way you think about the world that 116 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 4: you needed Maose Dung can tell you this, and this 117 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 4: is this is what most Nobel prizes and economics are 118 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:56,279 Speaker 4: and this is the most. 119 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 2: That it has ever been. Yeah. 120 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 4: So basically their argument is that, like this is also 121 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 4: an argument that Paul Baran makes is that like, okay, 122 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 4: depending on whether you're dealing with a settuler quality or 123 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 4: a sort of like India style like administrative colony, I 124 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:14,720 Speaker 4: guess I'm like a technical term for it. 125 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 3: It gets like an extractive colony, where you have more 126 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 3: about extracted labor, raw materials and settling. 127 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:21,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, like that changes the kinds of institutions that are 128 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:25,279 Speaker 4: set up. And like, okay, you can if you want 129 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 4: to credit Paul Baron for the discovery that like the 130 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 4: settler colonies and like extractive colonies have different legal institutions 131 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 4: and they function differently and that has had long range 132 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 4: economic impacts like stretching into the future. But like this 133 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 4: is something again that you can you can just you 134 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 4: can find in a history book and immediately understand. And 135 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 4: these people have tried to do this. They're trying to 136 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 4: like track the difference in why we're like some colonies 137 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 4: more prosperous later than other colonies. Right, They're they're trying 138 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 4: to track this process through a whole bunch of incredibly 139 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 4: sketchy regression analyzes and we your assumptions about what income is. 140 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 4: They're trying to track like why was it that like 141 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 4: China and Turkey were like rich in the fifteen hundreds, 142 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 4: but they ceased to be rich after that. 143 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 2: Oh sick. 144 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 3: They're doing a fucking Jared Diamond. Yeah, they're doing a 145 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 3: West and the Rest. 146 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, it's it's it's wonder a Jerediamond bullshit, except 147 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 4: you know with China standard of living in Europe, if 148 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 4: you actually go back to the historical record and aren't 149 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 4: doing their like stupid weird like using population density as 150 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 4: an index for stuff, whether they start bringing malfus into it. 151 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 4: If you don't do that and you look at like 152 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 4: the actual like historical record, like the average quality of 153 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 4: life in China like is not eclipsed by Europe until 154 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 4: like the May eighteen hundreds. 155 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, like you know, so like this is all this 156 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 2: is all like very even. 157 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 3: Then, like life expects in the Midican hundreds, didn't it 158 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 3: took decades to go up after the Industrial revolution? 159 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 2: Right late? 160 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, Oh, this is this is sort of drawing to 161 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 4: what they're trying to do here, is that like a 162 00:07:57,600 --> 00:07:59,240 Speaker 4: lot of this is just it's directly it's just the 163 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 4: product of colonials, right, and they sort of acknowledge that 164 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 4: colonialism existed and that it was like extractive. But their 165 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 4: job is to take the basic insights of history and 166 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 4: depoliticize it. Right, We're going to get you later. One 167 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 4: of the things they win this prize for is depoliticizing revolution, 168 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 4: turning revolution into like a Nash E. Colibrium game theory thing. 169 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 4: Oh god, which is unbelievable. It's incredible. 170 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, these are the kind of people who I have 171 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 3: to deal with on a daily basis on list serves 172 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 3: Like these are the economists emailing the entire list serve 173 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 3: with a unique insight into something that we all you 174 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 3: thirty year Like the old faculty email list is plagued. 175 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 2: By this kind of individual Yeah. 176 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 4: And like like this is a thing where so they're 177 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 4: absolutely convinced that, like, like the one hundred percent convinced 178 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 4: that the thing that leads to economic prosperity is like 179 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 4: the safeguarding of individual property rights. And like I will 180 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 4: give them a little tiny bit of credit where they're like, well, yeah, 181 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 4: so direct colonial institutions were attractive and they're bad because 182 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 4: they infringe on but he writes, and that's mildly better 183 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 4: than most of these people. Yeah, but these are these 184 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 4: are these are again, these are the most advanced busheois economists. 185 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 2: Right, they're not. They're not like pro Rhodesia and neoclassical guys, right. 186 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 2: They do. 187 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:14,959 Speaker 4: They do have a lie where they say, we're not 188 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 4: going to say when the colonialism is good or bad. 189 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 4: And I think that's been misinterpreted a little bit because 190 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 4: like in their work they're pretty clear that it's bad. 191 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 3: They're just trying to make like a moral judgment because 192 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:25,680 Speaker 3: God forbid. 193 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, well they said they're saying it's extractive, and they 194 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 4: think that like attractions bad because it's inefficients. Yeah, but 195 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 4: basically things like that, they think that like Okay, so 196 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 4: like if you if you set up like regimes that 197 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 4: like SafeCare private property, this will like make people like richer. 198 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 4: But I want to read a quote from from one 199 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 4: of the papers they wrote. Quote, in comparatively poor and 200 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 4: less tense populated regions where Europeans could easily settle, it 201 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 4: was in the colonizer's interest to introduce inclusive economic institutions 202 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 4: that help to boost prosperity for the majority in the 203 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 4: long run. 204 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 3: Now, now me like they didn't go on to say, 205 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,839 Speaker 3: how like yeah, but Britain built the railways in India, 206 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 3: Like like like. 207 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 4: This is what he says, right, because what's happening here. 208 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 4: You know, this is something that economists love to do. 209 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 4: It's like economists love to go into other fields and 210 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 4: to have to colonize them, right, Yes, Like what they're 211 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 4: doing here is there they've gone into like this field 212 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 4: of history. Yeah, and they're attempting to sort of colonized them, right, 213 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 4: many such cases. Yeah, and you know they're looking at 214 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 4: this stuff, right, and you've got things like this where 215 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 4: it's like no, like the economic institutions that were set 216 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 4: up in like settler colonies were not designed to introduce 217 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 4: inclusive economic institutions to like help boost prosperity for the 218 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 4: majority of the long run, like that was. 219 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 2: The result of social struggle. 220 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 4: But they for some reason basically think that social struggles 221 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 4: started in like the eighteen eighties. Oh yeah, the Nobo 222 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 4: Bell like committee. They're like Econ fake Econdo Bell Committee 223 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 4: like releases, like a giant statement. Like there's like press 224 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 4: summaries have like a slightly more detail and they have 225 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 4: like the Econi one. And I want to read this 226 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 4: from so part of what they're doing, right, you're talking 227 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 4: about like the work that was inspired by this, by 228 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 4: the understanding that like the different institutions change economic outcomes. 229 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 2: Quote. 230 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 4: Beterg and Ivery two thousand and five examined the legacy 231 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 4: of British land institutions in India that gave cultivators in 232 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 4: certain regions proprietary rights, including that productivity was higher in 233 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 4: these regions post independence. Genioli and Rainier and Micaelopolis and 234 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 4: Papa Iyanu studied the impact of differences in political centralization 235 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 4: along ethnic groups dream Dream pre colonial times. None documented 236 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 4: the long run negative impacts of the slave trade. Delwy 237 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 4: ten by my non paper in two thousand and eight, 238 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 4: So we'll go back to that in a second. Del 239 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 4: twenty ten investigated the long run effects of the so 240 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 4: called meta system in operation between fifteen seventy three and 241 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 4: eighteen twelve and Peru. Inblivian where men were forced to 242 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:04,559 Speaker 4: work in minds, within the boundaries of metsa household consumption 243 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 4: was twenty five percent lower in twenty twenty one than 244 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 4: just outside the boundaries. So what they have discovered here again, 245 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 4: in the late two thousands and early twenty tenths, they 246 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 4: discovered that slavery had more negative economic impacts are the 247 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 4: places where there was slavery. 248 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 3: Jesus Christ, Like, thanks for trying guys like this. 249 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 2: And shit that they gave these people a Nobel prize 250 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 2: for inspiring this is insane. 251 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 3: You're right, economists, dude just love to tourist in someone 252 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 3: else's discipline and like fucking have the most basic insight possible. 253 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 3: Like all of these are things that would be like 254 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 3: an interesting undergraduate paper, right, Like, yeah, insane that these 255 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 3: people are getting Nobel prizes for this insane. It's economics 256 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 3: that same difference, I guess. 257 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 2: All right, So speaking of economics, we need to go 258 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 2: to ads because so it'll be a long term detrimental 259 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:08,960 Speaker 2: consequence for us. 260 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:13,680 Speaker 4: Don't but when we come back, there's some more unreal bullshit. 261 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 2: We are back, Okay. 262 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 4: So speaking of undergred bullshit, well, one of the big 263 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 4: things in their like initial paper that they did the 264 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 4: whole oh my god, they discovered that there's difference between 265 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 4: settler colonies and like attractive colonies. One of the big 266 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:37,559 Speaker 4: things in that paper was they spent a whole bunch 267 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,080 Speaker 4: of time looking into was the economic difference in these 268 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 4: countries because. 269 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:41,199 Speaker 2: Of the climate. 270 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:47,079 Speaker 4: Which, now, for those of you who are students of history, right, 271 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 4: the thing you will remember is that this was like 272 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 4: the most advanced race science theory of the early eighteen hundreds. Yes, 273 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 4: and these people are like the economists are finally getting 274 00:13:58,600 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 4: around to busting this. 275 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,239 Speaker 2: Like two thousand and four. 276 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 3: They had a looked at skull measurements because I felt like, 277 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 3: I feel like we're heading down that pod like econophrenology. 278 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 2: So bad, incredible. 279 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 4: That was actually a whole thing in fascist Japan where 280 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 4: they had all of I can't remember if I ever 281 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 4: talked about this in the episodes that I did on 282 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 4: Bachelor's episodes, but they had this whole thing where they 283 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 4: had like racial categorizations and like biological characteristics of like 284 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 4: the races, and they would use them to like determine 285 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 4: allocated efficiency of which slaves you should use to do what. 286 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 2: Oh cool, cool, cool, cool cool. It was great. 287 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 4: It like great, I mean, like, holy fucking shit, it's 288 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 4: so bad. 289 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 3: They dis missed that time. Man, those people could kick 290 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 3: the shit out of a Nobel Price in like twenty 291 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 3: twenty five. They came back with that stuff. 292 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, I get, like, you know, I mean one of 293 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 4: the things we were talking about, right, is like you 294 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 4: were mentionings like these these are like these are like 295 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 4: such obvious insights. And I remember, so I went to 296 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 4: University of Chicago, right, and that means that I fucking 297 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 4: know all of these fucking ghouls, Like I met all 298 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 4: the people who are going to become these econ dipshits. 299 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, you have ground zero for that shit. 300 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 4: One of the things that's funny is that like this 301 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 4: is like a particular thing of the universe of Chicago 302 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 4: become people's like they all think they can do math 303 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 4: and they can't, right, they suck at it. But one 304 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 4: of the thin things I was almost like so a 305 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 4: bunch of my friends are math majors, and math majors 306 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 4: can like actually do math, Like they could do the 307 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 4: kind of math that's like there's no there aren't like 308 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 4: numbers involved. Like it's like they're doing like field theory 309 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 4: or some shit, or like they're doing a kind of 310 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 4: math that when someone tries to explain it to you, 311 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 4: they have to start like making diagrams of like the 312 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 4: faces of cubes and then like explaining how there's like 313 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 4: thirty two dimensional edges or whatever. And there's always this 314 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 4: joke from the math professors where they'd be mad because 315 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 4: like they look at the econdable price and they'd be like, 316 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 4: this person made like an incredibly minor optimization to a 317 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 4: trading algorithm that's like incredibly obvious to anyone who even 318 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 4: sort of knows math, and they gave them at a mole 319 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 4: price for this. 320 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 2: And this is that before history. Yeah. 321 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 4: So the other thing that they discovered, right, oh God, 322 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 4: I I I'm trying to find the least depressing way 323 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 4: to put this. They they discovered that there are revolutions, 324 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 4: and they discovered that like there are different interest groups 325 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 4: in a revolution who have different interests and like like 326 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 4: literally One of the things that they won this prize 327 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 4: for is a paper where they they discovered that giving 328 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 4: people like the franchise, like giving people the ability to vote, 329 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 4: and setting up the welfare state was something that was 330 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 4: done by elites to stop revolutions. Yeah again, Yeah, they 331 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 4: have all these mathematical models that look very impressive until 332 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 4: you realize they're just they're like incredibly stupid game theory 333 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 4: bullshit to like determine whether or not a country will 334 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 4: do a revolution, and their model for it basically is 335 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 4: and they've discovered some some genuinely impressive insights for like 336 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 4: a sixteen year old who wants to go into into 337 00:16:56,920 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 4: political science, right, Like, they discovered that, for example, elites 338 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:04,679 Speaker 4: have economic interests and that those economic interests are different 339 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 4: from masses. But because they're economists, the only way they 340 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 4: can conceptualize this is in terms of tax rates. So 341 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 4: they make the argument, and this is not a joke. 342 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 4: I am, I am being serious about this. I read 343 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:21,679 Speaker 4: this fucking footnote. They make the argument that the overthrow 344 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 4: of Salvador Allende was about elite tax rates. 345 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 3: Oh that one is fucking like Jesus wept. 346 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 4: And it's so funny too, and this is this is 347 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 4: like one of the biggest most obvious problems with their models, right, 348 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 4: And this is this is this is from all the 349 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:42,920 Speaker 4: way back to like their whole thing about like how 350 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 4: the institutions that were set up by colonialists being different 351 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:48,560 Speaker 4: affected like the long term trajectory of these countries. They 352 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 4: treat these entire process because like one of the things 353 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 4: that they've discovered is that there are revolutions and counter revolutions, 354 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 4: because they read a Wikipedia article about like right wing 355 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 4: coups in Latin America, and they discovered that eats can 356 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 4: do antidemocratic coups because they don't want their taxes to 357 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 4: be too high. 358 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 2: That's the only reason they do it. 359 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 4: Yeah, But but their discovery of this, right, that that 360 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:12,160 Speaker 4: right wingers do antidemocratic cups to like preserve their wealth 361 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 4: and political power. Right, But never at any point in 362 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 4: their process does it seem to have occurred to them 363 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 4: that elites are not purely single national figures, and that 364 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 4: there are in fact multinational elites and in fact there's 365 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 4: something called the Central Intelligence Agency that doesn't come FAMI. 366 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 2: These people do curse. And this is this is like 367 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 2: the fundamental core of this right. 368 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 4: It's like these models talk about sort of like e 369 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 4: lead extraction, right, but it's all framed through the language 370 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,440 Speaker 4: of sort of like taxes or like rents, basically like 371 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 4: like the thinking like land ranch or like they're fighting 372 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 4: over a surplus. Right, Okay, But what they're trying to 373 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,879 Speaker 4: do is depoliticize how this actually works, because the thing 374 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 4: they're trying to present is that all extraction happens through 375 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 4: the state, right, Yeah, Like the state is the tool 376 00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 4: that leads use. And now if you think about those 377 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,199 Speaker 4: five seconds, well, like well no, obviously, like there's an 378 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 4: exploitation in like the workplace that's actually in indies, right, 379 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,959 Speaker 4: military hatorships, that's actually like the primary place where extraction happens. 380 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 4: Where you shoot all the union organizers and then you 381 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 4: fucking force solved the peasants to work in the field 382 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 4: and shoot them if they don't. Right. 383 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:18,360 Speaker 2: But but what what they're doing is attempting to sort 384 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:21,639 Speaker 2: of deep politicize the deep plicize this entire process. This 385 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 2: is what I'm talking about. Like they are the. 386 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 4: Most advanced Bushwi economists, and being the most advanced Bushwise economists, 387 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:31,439 Speaker 4: they have finally figured out that the whole they call 388 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 4: it modernization theory. That's not really what modernization theory is. 389 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 4: But they're economists, they're fucking stupid. They don't know anything. 390 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 4: You can't judge them for not actually knowing what modernization 391 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 4: theory is. But they finally discovered that the old line 392 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:47,119 Speaker 4: about how economic development and evidently brought democracy was wrong. 393 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:51,400 Speaker 2: Again, huge insight here. 394 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, but this brings them into the world of democratic transitions. Now, 395 00:19:58,119 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 4: after we come back from these ad breaks, I would 396 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 4: read you the most thunderously stupid line I've ever read 397 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:04,399 Speaker 4: in a paper in my entire life. And that is 398 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 4: fucking saying something given how many eCOM papers I've read. Yeah, 399 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 4: you've been in the trenches. Okay, oh god, let me 400 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:24,479 Speaker 4: let me, let me, let me read this line. This 401 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 4: is This is a quote from the ECON Nobel Prizes site. 402 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:35,720 Speaker 4: In their two thousand and sixth book, the two of 403 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 4: the three economists made an ambitious attempt to provide quote, 404 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 4: the first systematic formal analysis of the creation and consolidation 405 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:44,160 Speaker 4: of democracy. 406 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 2: The first This is very funny. This is fucking insane. 407 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,639 Speaker 3: This is like an entire field of international relations of 408 00:20:57,680 --> 00:20:58,439 Speaker 3: political science. 409 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 4: This is ship not not just that there are literally 410 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 4: multiple disciplines. This is an entire field of study, right, 411 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 4: Like I have read it, Like obviously, this is an 412 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 4: entire matcho political science. This is an entire branch of 413 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 4: international relations. This is an entire branch of sociology. There's 414 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,440 Speaker 4: like there's like an anthropological school kind of that that's 415 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 4: about this. 416 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:22,159 Speaker 3: They're interdisciplinary fucking institute, so that exists for this reason, 417 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 3: Like this is shit that I studied from people who 418 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 3: wrote books about it in the nineteen fifties, Like. 419 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,959 Speaker 5: This is like like you, And the funny thing is 420 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 5: they are they literally quote people who are writing about 421 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:41,120 Speaker 5: this from the age, like people have been studying this 422 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,160 Speaker 5: for fucking it as long as there has been democracy. 423 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:46,320 Speaker 2: People have been studying. 424 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 4: This Shitah yeah, their eCOM thing that they always was like, oh, 425 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 4: nobody ever did formal analysis for It's like, have you 426 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:52,440 Speaker 4: ever fucking. 427 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 2: Read have you read a poly side paper? 428 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:58,199 Speaker 4: I understand, I too dropped my public policy major the 429 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 4: moment I realized that public policy was just fun an 430 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 4: econ with the lines in the graph relabeled, Yeah, have 431 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 4: you ever fucking read one of these papers? Like you 432 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 4: actually have a chance of understanding them because they are 433 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,160 Speaker 4: you know, Okay, I can't bet you mean to political science, 434 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 4: they are about one hundred and fifty times more advanced 435 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 4: than the ECON papers on this subject. But that's still 436 00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,639 Speaker 4: not like a very high level of advancement, right, but 437 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,439 Speaker 4: like still they're like they have formal models of this. 438 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,680 Speaker 4: They've done all the stupid math bullshit. The sociologists done 439 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 4: all the fucking number crunching, Like okay, okay, here's another 440 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 4: go from this. The authors start the paper by showing 441 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:36,199 Speaker 4: that democratic transitions are precipitated by falls in GDP per capita. 442 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 2: They discovered this in two thousand and nineteen. I was having. 443 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 4: Twitter arguments, like arguments again with like sixteen year olds 444 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:50,399 Speaker 4: on Twitter in like twenty sixteen about what the relationship 445 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,160 Speaker 4: between revolutions and declining and raising living standards were. 446 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 2: Like this was Twitter discourse, right. 447 00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:00,040 Speaker 3: This is seven years off to the Arab Spring. 448 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:06,159 Speaker 4: Like just a twenty nine Yes, insane, they discovered. 449 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 3: This, Yeah, do they do formal analysis of the Arab Spring, 450 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:12,199 Speaker 3: famously the first and only democratic transition that's ever happened. 451 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 4: No, that's like two recents. Okay, They're all all their stuff. 452 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 2: Is what they call the quote the second wave of 453 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 2: democratic transitions. 454 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 4: Which is the second wave of all because they're two 455 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:24,720 Speaker 4: social idiots, so that they're talking about the protomocracy movements 456 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 4: in the eighties in Latin America and you saysia great, Yeah, 457 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,159 Speaker 4: which they're also just thunderously wrong about like all of 458 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 4: the time. 459 00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,200 Speaker 2: Yeah. I was going to say, I can't wait to 460 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:35,359 Speaker 2: hear what they have to say about those. 461 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 4: I'm literally not even going to talk about it because 462 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 4: it's nothing. 463 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:40,400 Speaker 2: It's just like air. 464 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 3: I'm just looking up a very very insightful paper that 465 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 3: ali Ka Diva wrote, who I've interviewed several times so 466 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:51,199 Speaker 3: different things. It's called stick Stones and Molotovs Cocktails. It 467 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,399 Speaker 3: is a fantastic analysis of democratic transitions. It's about like 468 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 3: the strategic use of violence against property and the correlation 469 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,880 Speaker 3: it has between like succesful demotratic transition movements. 470 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:04,360 Speaker 2: It's good paper. Read that. 471 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, there's a lot of great like analysis. We'll put 472 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 4: that in like the notes here. There's a lot of 473 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 4: great analysis of this. But what they're trying to do 474 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,239 Speaker 4: is they're trying to build this model where they're like 475 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:16,440 Speaker 4: looking at like basically bargaining between like the masses and 476 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,159 Speaker 4: elites to decide whether you do a revolution or a 477 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 4: counter revolution. And they're trying to build like a game 478 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 4: theory model based on like fuck off the elites and 479 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,360 Speaker 4: like give ranting concessions and when they don'te grant concessions, 480 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 4: and whether people believe they're getting grant concession. The other 481 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,119 Speaker 4: thing that's also very stupid about this, right, is that 482 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,000 Speaker 4: like the thing that they're interested in is why or 483 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 4: why not people like believe that the olibal economic reforms 484 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 4: are going to work, And a lot of democratic transitions 485 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 4: are also about like resistance to that shit. Yeah, like 486 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 4: the revolutions to Dan for example, like he is a 487 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,199 Speaker 4: bard of Marcus movement, but like it is also in 488 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 4: large part a reaction to imf postructural reforms these people 489 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,560 Speaker 4: all think are good and will like cause long term prosparity, 490 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,160 Speaker 4: and like a lot of the democratic resitions they're talking about, 491 00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 4: like like for example, again Pinochet, right, like that was 492 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 4: like you know, like obviously the pro democracy reformers did 493 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 4: more neoliberalism, but like a part of the part of 494 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,919 Speaker 4: the reason like that stuff worked was because Pinochet ran 495 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,359 Speaker 4: the economy into the graduating yeah, right. 496 00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 2: Which is what he was sad to do. 497 00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 4: But yeah, but like I want to close it on 498 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:22,120 Speaker 4: two things. One, I want to read this line right 499 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 4: from I'm talking about like the advances in their papers. 500 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 4: This is again from the equitible prize thing quote in 501 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,120 Speaker 4: the earlier models. The probability that the masses are successful 502 00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 4: when they stage a revolution is always one. 503 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 2: But this is a strong assumption that does not reflect 504 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:38,720 Speaker 2: real world events very well. 505 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 4: They published a paper about how people make a decision 506 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:46,960 Speaker 4: to do a revolution. This this was peer reviewed in 507 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 4: an economics journal. It's one of the papers that incited 508 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 4: in the noble price they gave them when they assumed 509 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 4: that revolutions always succeed. Yeah, Nobel prize. And the second 510 00:25:57,520 --> 00:25:59,440 Speaker 4: paper was one they realized, holy shit, that's. 511 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 2: Not true, mom Melter, isn't it. This is the kind of. 512 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:07,320 Speaker 4: Assumption that these absolute fucking morons make all of the time, 513 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:08,639 Speaker 4: all of the fuck. This is why they had to 514 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 4: bring in the institu social columnists in the first place 515 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 4: to bring the shit in right, because like they're basic 516 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 4: models of how humans work. Were like every single human 517 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,720 Speaker 4: like sits out and calculates a fucking utility curve, figure 518 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 4: out where they're going to brush their hair in the 519 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 4: morning was obviously not true. That's what I had to 520 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 4: bring in game theory in the first place. Right, they 521 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:27,919 Speaker 4: make stupid assumptions like this literally all the time. And 522 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,119 Speaker 4: again this is one of the ones they're making in 523 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:31,520 Speaker 4: one of the papers that was cited in here as 524 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,160 Speaker 4: the reason they want to know what prison economics. 525 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, I want to read this models of Cocktail's paper 526 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,000 Speaker 3: out to everyone. Here's a fun little sentence, and event 527 00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 3: history analysis finds it, right, so positively associated with political 528 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,080 Speaker 3: liberalization in one hundred and three non democracies from nineteen 529 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,119 Speaker 3: ninety to two thousand and four. Attacks by civilians on 530 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 3: police stations during the January twenty fifth Egyptian Revolution illustrate 531 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 3: one way in which unarmed collective violence can bring about 532 00:26:54,520 --> 00:27:00,400 Speaker 3: a democratic breakthrough. Incredible, thank you, We love to see it. 533 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 2: I love this. 534 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,359 Speaker 4: That's a pretty normal thing from like I guess you 535 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,520 Speaker 4: would call it like the center left of like Democrats 536 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:08,639 Speaker 4: edition studies stuff. 537 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:10,879 Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, it's the sociology paper. 538 00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's like a pretty normal it's like a good life, 539 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 4: a good paper. This is from one of the books 540 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,920 Speaker 4: written by people who won the Economics Nobel Prize. 541 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:20,600 Speaker 2: Quote. 542 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,720 Speaker 4: Chapter six explains why several European countries have managed to 543 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:27,919 Speaker 4: build broadly participatory societies capable but still shackled states. Our 544 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,639 Speaker 4: answer focuses on the factories that led much of Europe 545 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 4: towards the corridor during the early Middle Ages, as Germanic tribes, 546 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,359 Speaker 4: especially the Franks, came to invade lands dominated by the 547 00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:40,920 Speaker 4: Western Roman Empire. Afterwards collapse, We argue with the marriage 548 00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:45,639 Speaker 4: of bottom up participatory institutions and norms of Germanic tribes 549 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,359 Speaker 4: and the centralizing bureaucratic and legal traditions of the Roman 550 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 4: Empire forged a unique balance of power between the state 551 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 4: and society. 552 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 2: The rise of the. 553 00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:05,480 Speaker 3: Oh good for me, so depressing. I spent ten years 554 00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 3: getting a PhD in history and they've just given these 555 00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:09,119 Speaker 3: people a Nobel Prize. 556 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:13,760 Speaker 2: But like Jordan Peterson, shit, they have discovered. 557 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,639 Speaker 4: But this is the thing, Like these people have discovered 558 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 4: the concept of history. Yeah, and they've read like four 559 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:24,200 Speaker 4: Wikipedia articles and they've used those Wikipedia articles they started 560 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 4: doing regression analysis. 561 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:27,879 Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is this is what they want a 562 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:31,880 Speaker 2: Nobel prize. Yeah, this is fake Nobel prize. 563 00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 4: Like again, like I've been thinking about, like you know, 564 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 4: in physics, what you have to do to win a 565 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:42,000 Speaker 4: Nobel Prize, you have to make a prediction about the 566 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 4: fundamental nature of the universe that can only be tested 567 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:50,200 Speaker 4: by building a fucking machine that can measure a vibration 568 00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 4: of gravitational ways, which is a It has to be 569 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 4: able to measure a ripple in the fabric of space 570 00:28:56,160 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 4: time that is smaller than the diameter of the fucking 571 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 4: nucleus of an atom. 572 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 2: That is what you have to do to win the 573 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:04,040 Speaker 2: Noble Prize in physics. 574 00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:05,840 Speaker 4: What you have to do to win the Noble Prize 575 00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:12,800 Speaker 4: in economics is realize that institutions affect prosparity. 576 00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 2: Jesus, I just cannot like. This has been. This has 577 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 2: been the vibess Econdoble Prize episode. 578 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 4: I don't know. I hope this made your day slightly 579 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 4: slightly better, because holy shit, this is the fakest prize 580 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 4: in the entire world. 581 00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,560 Speaker 3: Shout out to the economists like I guess I'm eagerly 582 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 3: awaiting you discovering some other ship from my one oh 583 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,680 Speaker 3: one class. Feel free to sign up anytime if you 584 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 3: want to get about fucking prize in economics. 585 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 2: I guess ah. All right, well this has been. It 586 00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,800 Speaker 2: can happen here. We'll return. 587 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, next time they give the economics surprise for tying 588 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 3: their shoes of something. 589 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,280 Speaker 2: It happened here is a production of cool Zone Media. 590 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 6: For more podcast from cool Zone Media, visit our website 591 00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 6: fool Zonemedia dot com, or check us out on the 592 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 6: iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or. 593 00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 2: Wherever you listen to podcasts. 594 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 6: You can now find sources for it could happen here 595 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 6: listed directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.