Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of
Speaker 1: the Betting pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. Week one is in
Speaker 1: the books, and as always, it was a tough week
Speaker 1: to handicap, but now we have some actionable information to
Speaker 1: guide our decision making going forward. As always, as soon
Speaker 1: as week one ends, we need to start immediately looking
Speaker 1: to week two, So as we always do on our
Speaker 1: Monday show, we're going to be taking an early look
Speaker 1: at next week's lines. We're not making picks here, We're
Speaker 1: just giving our initial reaction to the lines as they
Speaker 1: first come out. And with me to break it all
Speaker 1: down is Christian Pena, a professional sports better and a
Speaker 1: writer and managing editor for the Sports Betting Podcast. You
Speaker 1: can find them on Twitter at the very convenient at
Speaker 1: Christian Pina. That's p I n A, Christian. How's it going, man,
Speaker 1: good man.
Speaker 2: It's always fun talking with new people and companies that
Speaker 2: are coming up into the space, and I've been say
Speaker 2: such a fan of what you guys have done on
Speaker 2: other ends and other areas, so I really appreciate you
Speaker 2: thinking of me and I'm excited for you know, week two,
Speaker 2: Week one, you know the biggest differences to me in
Speaker 2: the NFL season. It's so funny we think of ourselves
Speaker 2: as you know, these three month handicappers because Week one
Speaker 2: kind of comes, you know, the lines open three months
Speaker 2: in advance, and then everything we have to shift to
Speaker 2: basically five day handicappers. So Week two, to me, both
Speaker 2: in college football and the National Football League is one
Speaker 2: of the most unique, in my opinion, really challenging weeks
Speaker 2: of the year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, out of curiosity. If we had talked last week
Speaker 1: for Week one and again you talked about it, and
Speaker 1: we talked about this last week, which is you know,
Speaker 1: the Week one lines come out months in advance, and
Speaker 1: we talked a little bit about how they moved from
Speaker 1: when they first dropped. Did any of them coming into
Speaker 1: basically on Monday as of last week, did any of
Speaker 1: them really jump out to is off when you first
Speaker 1: looked at him. I'm not saying necessarily to place a bet,
Speaker 1: but just where if you were you know, you're a
Speaker 1: professional sports better basically if you were placing a bet
Speaker 1: when you looked at you said wow, I expected that line.
Speaker 1: Either an over under or spread on any particular game
Speaker 1: to be significantly high or lower. Was it about where
Speaker 1: you thought it would be?
Speaker 3: You mean it for week one when they opened for
Speaker 3: Week one?
Speaker 1: Yeah, not this week. We'll talk all about this week,
Speaker 1: But I meant last week. If I had you on
Speaker 1: on our Monday show from last week, we were talking
Speaker 1: about some lines and one or two of them stuck
Speaker 1: out to us as a little bit off, just that
Speaker 1: we would expect it to be a little bit different.
Speaker 1: I was just wondering out of curiosity from last week,
Speaker 1: whether you had been on on Monday and we were
Speaker 1: analyzing the week one lines, whether or not any of
Speaker 1: them would have stuck out to you as a little
Speaker 1: bit off.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk about that Green Bay Packers line and
Speaker 2: the fact that they were an underdog. I understand that
Speaker 2: they were on the rope, but when you look at this,
Speaker 2: I mean, it's crazy how much the market and perception
Speaker 2: of a team can shift on you know, a very
Speaker 2: short sample size. And make no mistake, the National Football
Speaker 2: League is a very short sample size. You're talking about
Speaker 2: sixteen games where you know there's it's notorious that you know,
Speaker 2: sometimes professionals are a year early on teams. We saw this,
Speaker 2: you know, they were backing the Browns and got you know,
Speaker 2: absolutely killed for a while. You know, but they were
Speaker 2: just a year early. The same thing happened a couple
Speaker 2: of years ago. They were a year early on Jacksonville.
Speaker 2: So the short sample size in the marketplace. Look, I mean,
Speaker 2: I don't understand how the Chicago team was favored at all.
Speaker 2: And you know, inherently that's going to present some value.
Speaker 2: And you get Aaron Rodgers, who has amazing success in
Speaker 2: the division against that you know, particular number not to
Speaker 2: mention the script was one hundred and eighty degrees flipped
Speaker 2: from last year when Chicago was coming in with a
Speaker 2: new offense, and you know, green Bay to me, really
Speaker 2: I don't understand that. You know how they were in
Speaker 2: an underdog when green Bay built their team to you know,
Speaker 2: contain Mitch Trubisky's legs and you know, beat the Bears,
Speaker 2: and for lack of a better term, they got so
Speaker 2: much faster with their draft pick and you know, Savage,
Speaker 2: the safety is probably already you know, running a four
Speaker 2: to two, one of the fastest guys in the back
Speaker 2: end in the league. And they learned how to you know,
Speaker 2: kind of bring people in too, you know, set that
Speaker 2: edge and make Triubisky beat them from the pocket, and
Speaker 2: it really did play out that way. I thought their
Speaker 2: offense would be a lot better. But you know, at
Speaker 2: the end of the day, that's uh, you know, in
Speaker 2: terms of line value, that was the biggest one that
Speaker 2: really stuck out to me. And when you go down
Speaker 2: the line, look, division underdog, divisional underdogs in a week
Speaker 2: one constantly have a great records, so you know, to me,
Speaker 2: that's kind of where everything starts and ends, and when
Speaker 2: those lines are very much flipped. Again, we saw this
Speaker 2: with Tennessee, we saw this just about everywhere. Washington just
Speaker 2: squeaking in inside the numbers. So the Green Bay one
Speaker 2: was the biggest kind of head scratcher to me, and
Speaker 2: just making some of these you know, divisional underdogs that
Speaker 2: do so well in week ones, you know, some of
Speaker 2: these being very long favorites, like the Vikings in Washington game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to talk about the differences from this week,
Speaker 1: especially because I mean, look, I was preparing for the
Speaker 1: show and earlier today, just a few hours ago, I
Speaker 1: had sort of the list of what the consensus numbers were,
Speaker 1: and they've already moved some of them pretty significantly. So
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about each game here, and both
Speaker 1: the spreads and over unders that we're going to be
Speaker 1: talking about, we're going to be using the bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: Com consensus numbers. Now, that is an aggregation of the
Speaker 1: odds that are available in the market, and as I
Speaker 1: mentioned last week, well these numbers are probably what you're
Speaker 1: going to find. Generally speaking, there are occasionally pretty significant
Speaker 1: differences in the odds available in the market, for example
Speaker 1: with the Bears and the Broncos right now, and some
Speaker 1: of this is due to the fact that we're recording
Speaker 1: this on Monday night. The Broncos haven't played yet, so
Speaker 1: this could move. But you've got Fandle with the Bears
Speaker 1: at minus two and a half. Almost every other book
Speaker 1: has them at plus one. So if you look to
Speaker 1: maximize your return on investment, make sure to shop around
Speaker 1: a bit for the best odds that you can get.
Speaker 1: But for now, just know that when I list any
Speaker 1: given odds, they're bettingpros dot Com consensus ods. All right, Christian,
Speaker 1: let's begin with the Thursday night game. That's the Bucks
Speaker 1: at the Panthers. We've got the Panthers laying six and
Speaker 1: a half points and the over under at fifty. What's
Speaker 1: your reaction to those lines.
Speaker 2: Look, when you look at this Tampa team, they are
Speaker 2: you know, they Winston. I really, you know, thought he'd make,
Speaker 2: you know, finally take that step forward and you know
Speaker 2: he doesn't have Fitzpatrick, you know, looking over his shoulder,
Speaker 2: and he's not going to be worrying about coming in
Speaker 2: and we saw that. It's just he just played like
Speaker 2: there's nobody else behind him, which is usually you know,
Speaker 2: a good thing for confidence, and I guess it went
Speaker 2: the other way with him, So I get this reaction.
Speaker 2: I mean when you look at the look aheadlines, this
Speaker 2: was about a minus three for Carolina at home. Look Carolina,
Speaker 2: you know, cross country, they were going to la different
Speaker 2: time zone, all that type of stuff came into play
Speaker 2: on week one and they really did hang around with
Speaker 2: them depending on the number that you got last time.
Speaker 2: But you look at a guy like McCaffrey and I
Speaker 2: just I think that his trajectory reminds me so much
Speaker 2: of Levey on Bell and you know, had Leveon Bell
Speaker 2: want an MVP, I think that you could, you know,
Speaker 2: really make a case for you know that blueprint to
Speaker 2: be followed, it just becomes such a quarterback kind of
Speaker 2: driven league. But to me, this line in total are
Speaker 2: set just about where I would make them, again, assuming
Speaker 2: I give Carolina a little bit of a downgrade for
Speaker 2: a home field advantage, you know, maybe it's two instead
Speaker 2: of the normal kind of flat three across the board
Speaker 2: that most people will use, you know, just again based
Speaker 2: on time all that type of stuff. But I will
Speaker 2: say there is a very good trend out there on
Speaker 2: you know, home teams playing on Thursday night. And I
Speaker 2: don't know if you can classify Bruce Arians as a
Speaker 2: quote unquote rookie head coach, but he is in his
Speaker 2: first year with a new team, and traditionally that is
Speaker 2: a great spot to fade. So I do think this,
Speaker 2: you know, maybe there's you know, a half point of value,
Speaker 2: a point of value, but I really just see this
Speaker 2: one as Carolina kind of you know, continuing to undress Tampa.
Speaker 2: And I think that this line is probably right on
Speaker 2: the money.
Speaker 1: And how and the total too at fifty. I mean
Speaker 1: they last year, one of their games they totaled at seventy,
Speaker 1: you know, so it struck me when I first looked
Speaker 1: at it as maybe a little high, but you know,
Speaker 1: on second thought, I guess it kind of seems right
Speaker 1: at the number. You know, the Bucks offense didn't look
Speaker 1: fantastic on Sunday, and the Panthers, you know, Cam Newton
Speaker 1: was a little rusty going in. They still have a
Speaker 1: strong defense. The fifty number initially struck me as a
Speaker 1: little too high, but after second thought and kind of
Speaker 1: looking at their history and looking at everything, it probably
Speaker 1: struck me right about online. Are you on board there
Speaker 1: with the fifty over under? Yeah?
Speaker 2: You look at the last time that these two played
Speaker 2: on December second, twenty eighteen, twenty four to seventeen victory,
Speaker 2: so that one, you know, did go under that I
Speaker 2: would definitely lean with the under with you there as well.
Speaker 2: Look in the beginning of seasons, there's a reason that
Speaker 2: professionals will always go under in the Hall of Fame game,
Speaker 2: and that's because traditionally, to start things off, defenses are
Speaker 2: always ahead of offense. There's it's just schematically, I don't
Speaker 2: want to say easier, but it's just a little bit
Speaker 2: you know, different to apply. So I will always lean
Speaker 2: towards an under, especially early in the seasons.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the next game. We've
Speaker 1: got the Chargers at the Lions. The Chargers are laying
Speaker 1: two and a half points. Now, this was at three
Speaker 1: earlier in the day, it's moved to two and a
Speaker 1: half and the over under is set on forty seven,
Speaker 1: both these teams coming off overtime games. What are your
Speaker 1: thoughts here on Chargers laying two and a half and
Speaker 1: the over under at forty seven.
Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple things here really struck me out. Number one,
Speaker 2: this is probably going to be the most publicly sided
Speaker 2: game of the week, and I would say that majority
Speaker 2: of people are going to come out in droves for
Speaker 2: the Chargers laying that short number on the road. And
Speaker 2: again we just said both teams playing, you know, after overtime,
Speaker 2: so you know, the Lions did go the full you know,
Speaker 2: extra quarter in the season in the beginning of the season.
Speaker 3: That's usually a detriment.
Speaker 2: You could look at a couple of different ways, but
Speaker 2: to me, that's what struck me the most about this
Speaker 2: one is this is going to be probably the biggest,
Speaker 2: one of the biggest book needs of the afternoon. When
Speaker 2: we talk about the Chargers side, again, you saw that
Speaker 2: number tick up minus two and a half three some places,
Speaker 2: again using our consensus minus two and a half.
Speaker 3: And the other thing.
Speaker 2: Public's like two things, favorites and overs because they'd like
Speaker 2: to see scores, and the same thing happened. I saw
Speaker 2: that total, and my initial reaction was that seems, you know,
Speaker 2: very very low when you look at the game last
Speaker 2: year that ended thirty three to twenty eight with these
Speaker 2: two teams.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, that was my reaction too. I mean, I
Speaker 1: think that spread was fine. You know, I also completely
Speaker 1: agree that I would expect the public to certainly be
Speaker 1: backing the Chargers in droves, and they probably have been
Speaker 1: at least somewhat already with the line move. And yeah,
Speaker 1: I agree the over under. It just it struck me
Speaker 1: as a little light. I mean, both teams. You know
Speaker 1: that the Lions showed, you know, the Cardinals their defense
Speaker 1: certainly is nothing to write home about. But the Lions
Speaker 1: on offense, you know, they have more weapons. TJ. Hockinson
Speaker 1: obviously adds a new dimension to that. Danny Amandola right
Speaker 1: in the middle, to add to Marvin Jones and Kenny Galladay.
Speaker 1: So I do think that their offense can score points.
Speaker 1: And Indianapolis showed yesterday that the Charters defense certainly is
Speaker 1: far from infallible. Although they're strong, they're dealing with another
Speaker 1: injury at cornerback. So you know, with the two with
Speaker 1: the Chargers defense kind of backed up both teams having
Speaker 1: offenses at the Lions that are a little bit surprisingly
Speaker 1: good at least if you look at yesterday. I also
Speaker 1: agree that I thought the over under struck me as
Speaker 1: a little light. But it should be a close game
Speaker 1: and I would expect more money to come in on
Speaker 1: the Chargers. As you said, let's move to the next game, Colts.
Speaker 1: At time Titans, Titans laying three points and the over
Speaker 1: under said at forty four.
Speaker 2: What do you think this is a little bit of
Speaker 2: an overreaction to me? Was my first statement. Look, this
Speaker 2: is kind of you always want to buy low and
Speaker 2: sell high, and I understand the Titans just went in
Speaker 2: there and kind of derailed the Browns hype training again,
Speaker 2: a divisional underdog situation, a bunch of new pieces specifically
Speaker 2: on offense, and you know, the Titans. For everyone out
Speaker 2: there that you know hasn't kind of listened to me before,
Speaker 2: this is one team that I don't know that I've
Speaker 2: ever backed in my life. I just think that they're
Speaker 2: stuck in a different age. You know, this was again
Speaker 2: Mike Malarkey, the thunder and Lightning. They wanted to run
Speaker 2: the ball, and that's just not how the league is played,
Speaker 2: not you know, how the league is won. And so
Speaker 2: the Titans are a team until they show me that
Speaker 2: they are shifting, you know, kind of their philosophical mindset. Offensively,
Speaker 2: I don't know that I can get behind a ticket
Speaker 2: on them very much. But again a great you know,
Speaker 2: divisional road spot for them in some nice plus money
Speaker 2: last week. You look at the other side of the Colts.
Speaker 2: This is another you know, reaction to the Andrew Luck drama.
Speaker 2: You know, Brissette, you know, played okay, but this to
Speaker 2: me is the ultimate kind of buy low, sell high.
Speaker 2: So definitely kind of lean with the Colts on that
Speaker 2: one and these divisional games, you know, despite the high
Speaker 2: powered nature and theory of kind of what the Colts
Speaker 2: offense was supposed to be. You know, let's be very clear,
Speaker 2: this is a downgrade from Brissett, you know, our to
Speaker 2: Luck from or from Luck to Berset. And you know,
Speaker 2: traditionally coltson and these two teams have played each other
Speaker 2: very very tight. They usually kind of split there, and
Speaker 2: when you look at this, you know total again last
Speaker 2: year was a little bit of a different situation, but
Speaker 2: Indianapolis thirty three seventeen, and that was at a time
Speaker 2: when Tennessee had kind of gone off the rails. But
Speaker 2: to me, I mean Marlon Mack what he is able
Speaker 2: to do that, you know, really to kind of take
Speaker 2: the pressure off Brissett at only one hundred and ninety yards.
Speaker 2: You know, Mariota, somebody I will always dare you to
Speaker 2: beat me and there you know, if you do, I'll
Speaker 2: tip my cap. And that's how we feel about this.
Speaker 2: So definitelyan with the road underdog cults here at the
Speaker 2: plus three and in the total, definitely lean U slightly
Speaker 2: towards the ender.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would think the numbers struck me as roughly correct.
Speaker 1: And I don't know about you. I have a really
Speaker 1: tough time with division games, especially early in the season.
Speaker 1: I just kind of think, you know, these teams know
Speaker 1: each other generally speaking. You mentioned it's a little bit
Speaker 1: different now of course because there's no Andrew Luck coming
Speaker 1: in for the Colts, but it's the same system that
Speaker 1: they ran last year. It's, you know, two teams with
Speaker 1: relatively good defenses. The over under forty four is pretty
Speaker 1: low for the week, but you know, it strikes me
Speaker 1: as something that's probably going to be right out of curiosity,
Speaker 1: and this is a little off topic, but I'm wondering,
Speaker 1: do you have any fear of betting on divisional games
Speaker 1: like this with teams that know each other so well,
Speaker 1: especially earlier in the season, or do you just take
Speaker 1: it like it's any other game.
Speaker 2: Well, let's think about this, right, so divisional underdogs again,
Speaker 2: I haven't. I didn't go back and do this for
Speaker 2: I didn't add in what happened for last week, but
Speaker 2: they were seventeen and four last few years against the spread,
Speaker 2: and so I will always lean with the trends. I'm
Speaker 2: a big trend better. But you know, traditionally what happens
Speaker 2: with people, they see a trend once out there, inevitably
Speaker 2: on their first time betting it, it loses, and then
Speaker 2: they never touch it again, and all of a sudden
Speaker 2: they forget it exists. So it's, you know, again, seventy
Speaker 2: seven percent, you know, and I think that must have
Speaker 2: probably went up when you had you think about Washington
Speaker 2: covering last week, the Titans obviously winning out right and covering,
Speaker 2: So there's probably a couple more in there, at least,
Speaker 2: you know, nineteen and four, so above you know, pretty
Speaker 2: much eighty percent in week one. When you look at
Speaker 2: week two, you know, I will always, like I said,
Speaker 2: side with the underdogs in division just based on that.
Speaker 2: And when you look at this, you know, Redskins, Bills, Giants, Raiders,
Speaker 2: it's a good opportunity here, and so I will always
Speaker 2: kind of lean with those, because, look, we don't know
Speaker 2: what these these teams are yet. In week two, we're
Speaker 2: going off you know, preconceived notions of the offseason and
Speaker 2: pretty much last year's data. It takes three to four
Speaker 2: weeks to know what a team is this year versus
Speaker 2: what a team was and what they could be like
Speaker 2: like the Browns.
Speaker 1: You know, yep, no, absolutely, yeah. For me, I just
Speaker 1: never feel like I have a good, good sense of
Speaker 1: it early on this season, So I don't look laying
Speaker 1: three essentially saying that it's roughly an even matchup on
Speaker 1: a neutral field and a small over under. That strikes
Speaker 1: me as about right. Let's move to our next game,
Speaker 1: also divisional game, the Cowboys at the Redskins. Cowboys are
Speaker 1: laying four and a half points and the over under
Speaker 1: is now forty six. Now when I checked earlier in
Speaker 1: the day, it was forty four, so it's moved roughly
Speaker 1: two points over. I don't know about you, I kind
Speaker 1: of expected the line to be higher here. I expected
Speaker 1: the Cowboys to be laying more points. What about you?
Speaker 3: Yeah, much like that Chargers line.
Speaker 2: I think this is kind of the fishy line of
Speaker 2: the week that the public will you know, probably be
Speaker 2: a consensus pick just about everywhere for the Cowboys just
Speaker 2: over that field goal. But again, it's a divisional matchup,
Speaker 2: and as Tennessee showed, these can be you know, very
Speaker 2: very tricky, especially in the early part of the season. Look,
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily give Washington a full three for that.
Speaker 2: And these again, these teams know each other so well.
Speaker 2: But the way that you know, Dak playing motivated and
Speaker 2: if he you know, I would dare say maybe this
Speaker 2: line even moves if he you know, does get paid,
Speaker 2: And it could go the other way, just because you
Speaker 2: look at the motivation factor for a guy, you know,
Speaker 2: to go out there and just you know, make people
Speaker 2: be quiet. And look, I am or I was the
Speaker 2: the biggest Dak detractor on the planet. Before he got
Speaker 2: a Mari Cooper, I was betting you know, his his
Speaker 2: passing yards props under every single week and returning at
Speaker 2: pretty nice you know, ROI in that department, I just
Speaker 2: did not think you could win with a guy like
Speaker 2: Dak Prescott.
Speaker 3: And you know, I've said that before. I've been wrong before.
Speaker 2: I'll be rung again when it comes to guys like
Speaker 2: Trubisky and Golf, although the jury is kind of out
Speaker 2: on those guys still, and as it is, you know,
Speaker 2: in my opinion, maybe even on Dak despite the big number,
Speaker 2: he's a to get paid, so it's very low when
Speaker 2: you look at you know, a pure power numbers handicapper
Speaker 2: is probably going to make this you know, Dallas minus
Speaker 2: a you know, seven Road favorite. To me, this Washington
Speaker 2: team is kind of you know, held together with you know,
Speaker 2: silly putty and some duct tape and maybe some spit.
Speaker 2: And I really do feel that way, and I think
Speaker 2: that the rails can kind of come off here. Of course,
Speaker 2: you had the incredible running Davis touchdown here, and maybe
Speaker 2: that's kind of fresh in everyone's mind, but next level
Speaker 2: thinking is very real, and when something seems too good
Speaker 2: to be true in this business that is a very
Speaker 2: real situation and not trap lines nothing like that. I
Speaker 2: just think that there's something to be you know, when
Speaker 2: you look at a line and it's so oft from
Speaker 2: what you have, it probably means oddsmakers are taking into
Speaker 2: account something that you're not. And as far as the
Speaker 2: over under, I will always go under in these Cowboys
Speaker 2: Redskins divisional games, especially in the first half market and
Speaker 2: that's just kind of a long, you know, trend play.
Speaker 2: The Giants and Cowboys went under I believe like five
Speaker 2: maybe six straight prior to this this one as well,
Speaker 2: so I'll definitely go with the under there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this one, really, as I said, stuck out to me.
Speaker 1: And again, you know, the only thing is I kind
Speaker 1: of had that same feeling last week with the Ravens
Speaker 1: and the Dolphins, where I said, this line really needs
Speaker 1: to be moving much higher and it stuck under seven
Speaker 1: at least where I was looking, and that was shocking
Speaker 1: and I went with it. But it was one of
Speaker 1: those where I said, I know I must be missing
Speaker 1: something because you know, a line like this is begging
Speaker 1: you to take the Ravens. And that's kind of how
Speaker 1: I feel about this one, which is why I'm surprised
Speaker 1: it's a low. Again, You're right, there's probably something. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is a line that's sort of begging you to
Speaker 1: take the Cowboys, which is why I expected it to
Speaker 1: be higher. But for me, look, I don't want to
Speaker 1: draw too many conclusions from yesterday against the Giants, but
Speaker 1: I think with Kellen Moore calling the plays, with you know,
Speaker 1: Zeke back, with a full season from Mamari, with Gallup
Speaker 1: taking that next step, I think that this Cowboys offense
Speaker 1: is going to be really, really difficult to stop. The Redskins, Honestly,
Speaker 1: impressive is the word that I want to use for them,
Speaker 1: as unfair as that is, because they're really not a
Speaker 1: very good team, but the fact that they came out
Speaker 1: hot against the Eagles, they hung in their all game.
Speaker 1: They're now going to be without Darius Guice though for
Speaker 1: at least a couple of weeks. So for me, I'm
Speaker 1: going to be surprised. As much as it's kind of
Speaker 1: seems like a trapline, I'm gonna be surprised. There's got
Speaker 1: to be tons of public money coming in, which also,
Speaker 1: again you know that they know that setting the line
Speaker 1: at this number, that there's gonna be a ton of
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Cowboys, which makes you feel
Speaker 1: like they probably want a lot of money coming in
Speaker 1: on the Cowboys. But to me, the four and a
Speaker 1: half points just really stuck out to me as the
Speaker 1: one that when I was going through the lines, I
Speaker 1: was like, Wow, this is something where I really sort
Speaker 1: of had the projection being much much different. As for
Speaker 1: the overunder, I'm inclined to agree. You know, I think
Speaker 1: a forty six where it's at now forty four struck
Speaker 1: me as a little light. But at a forty six,
Speaker 1: I think that's roughly right. Even though I like the
Speaker 1: Cowboys offense, I do think that in a divisional game
Speaker 1: like this where the teams know as a general matter, again,
Speaker 1: yesterday Cowboys seem to have no trouble with the Giants,
Speaker 1: But in divisional game generally, I think going with the
Speaker 1: under and having a lower over under than you might
Speaker 1: expect probably makes sense. Let's move to our next game,
Speaker 1: the Seahawks at the Steelers. Now, this one is interesting
Speaker 1: because it was at five, the Steelers laying five, it's
Speaker 1: now the Steelers laying three and a half, and the
Speaker 1: over under was it forty seven and now it's at
Speaker 1: forty six and a half. Do you think that this
Speaker 1: is a reaction just to how abysmal the Steelers look
Speaker 1: last night? Or do you think that this was just
Speaker 1: going to move once we got a little more data regardless.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to say one more thing about that
Speaker 2: Cowboys Washington game and that.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, sorry, I don't need to cut you off.
Speaker 3: No, no, go ahead, you're fine that though.
Speaker 2: You know, one more thing that did stuck, you know,
Speaker 2: stick out to me when you look at this, you know,
Speaker 2: why is this line where it is? Look, the Redskins
Speaker 2: lost to you know, the clear front runner I think
Speaker 2: in most people's minds along with Dallas by you know,
Speaker 2: guess what margin five points. I don't want to say
Speaker 2: they did that kind of blindly, but the situation and
Speaker 2: you know, I know, Washington at home in this one
Speaker 2: and all that type of stuff, but that does make sense.
Speaker 2: And look, that's a little bit of prime while you
Speaker 2: know what's called basic teaser wong teaser territory at that
Speaker 2: plus four and a half gets you through many different
Speaker 2: key numbers up towards you know, above that ten and
Speaker 2: a half mark.
Speaker 3: So on Seattle. Same thing.
Speaker 2: The first thing that stuck out to me is I
Speaker 2: wish that five was available, because I believe Russell Wilson
Speaker 2: has not. I lost maybe one game in his career
Speaker 2: by more than double digits. And anytime I can, you know,
Speaker 2: tease a number up to get that, that is always
Speaker 2: what I'm going to do. And every single time. And
Speaker 2: now that that's gone, look Toy still like it at
Speaker 2: the nine and a half? Sure, I just would have
Speaker 2: absolutely loved that eleven teaser leg It was the first
Speaker 2: thing that stuck out to me about that total or
Speaker 2: I'm sorry about that side and the total.
Speaker 1: Why do you think it moved so much out of curiosity?
Speaker 1: I mean that's a that's a fairly significant move a
Speaker 1: point and a half, and you know they just played
Speaker 1: last night the Steelers. They looked terrible. The Seahawks didn't
Speaker 1: look that great either. I mean they were favored by
Speaker 1: nine and a half over the Bengals and they barely
Speaker 1: squeaked by. So out of care, I mean, what do
Speaker 1: you think is driving that point and a half move?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Absolutely, Look, this was a National League televised game week
Speaker 2: one where every that's you know, probably one of the
Speaker 2: biggest numbers are going to do for viewers both in
Speaker 2: LAS Vegas sportsbooks or wherever people are watching this game
Speaker 2: for this reason. And so when you you know, primetime games,
Speaker 2: the market over correct or you know over ad just
Speaker 2: more than anything else in the world. When you get
Speaker 2: beat that badly, it's just so fresh in everyone's mind
Speaker 2: that inherently there's an overreaction. So yeah, if you are
Speaker 2: kind of the you know, value based power numbers type
Speaker 2: of handicapper, you know, maybe there is some inherent value
Speaker 2: with the Steelers to me. Look this Steelers team, I
Speaker 2: think I think there's a narrative. I think that Mike
Speaker 2: Tomlin could be out of a job very quickly, you know,
Speaker 2: quicker than people think. I think he makes a lot
Speaker 2: of sense if you want to go into the novelty
Speaker 2: prop market of first coach to be dismissed, if you
Speaker 2: know anywhere still has that up. And look, the Seahawks
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson has been very good to me in his career,
Speaker 2: both in his season win total in specific situations just
Speaker 2: like this one. So while I do think that this
Speaker 2: is something of a bilosl high not again, like you said,
Speaker 2: not that Seattle did anything to kind of you know,
Speaker 2: sell them high on but they did get out of
Speaker 2: town with a victory. And that's, you know, from a
Speaker 2: straight up perspective, all that matters. And so Seattle or Steelers,
Speaker 2: I think the ship could be on fire much quicker.
Speaker 3: You saw Juju limp off as well. I don't know that.
Speaker 1: He's supposed to be okay, by the way, just to
Speaker 1: there was a report today that he's supposed to be fine.
Speaker 1: He is going to play in this game. So that's
Speaker 1: at least one thing that we don't have to worry about.
Speaker 2: Pouncy as well, was another injury. Then we have seen
Speaker 2: this time and time again. When you know Pouncy Brothers
Speaker 2: and what they really do for the makeup, much like
Speaker 2: Frederick for the Cowboys, it's a different unit when he
Speaker 2: is in there versus when he's not. So I understand
Speaker 2: the line move, I you know, and I don't say
Speaker 2: I agree with it, but I completely understand the reasons
Speaker 2: for it. Is just that's what the market does because
Speaker 2: everyone is going to see what happened last week and
Speaker 2: when they come out and they're going to try to
Speaker 2: hit that you know road underdog at the plus you
Speaker 2: know five all the way down to plus three and
Speaker 2: a half. So I get it, don't necessarily agree with it,
Speaker 2: but I completely understand why odds makers did that. And
Speaker 2: as far as the total, look, I was really shocked
Speaker 2: at this Steelers offense. This Patriots defense has had holes
Speaker 2: in the past. I know they're a revamped unit and
Speaker 2: that offense, you know, is scary without Antonio Brown. But
Speaker 2: to me, you know, the forty seven, what did Antonio
Speaker 2: Brown mean to this team? We will find out now.
Speaker 2: I thought Juju was going to take that next step.
Speaker 2: It was about, you know, just a bad game. I
Speaker 2: completely understand that. But this all depends on if the
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh team can get going. And you saw, you know,
Speaker 2: with Metcalf, this is you know, Russell Wilson's has some
Speaker 2: weapons to play with. Now Tyler Lockett all he does
Speaker 2: is catch touchdown, So definitely lean towards the overs bill
Speaker 2: teams look to get their offenses in flowing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the number, both numbers struck me as as roughly correct.
Speaker 1: The five that the open was I found to be
Speaker 1: crazy to me. I mean, even before watching the Steelers,
Speaker 1: I just didn't think. I think people, as you sort
Speaker 1: of said, for whatever reason, sportsbooks always seem to underestimate
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, So I thought that that
Speaker 1: was way too high. As it moves closer to three,
Speaker 1: I think that that's about correct. I think you put
Speaker 1: these guys in the neutral field. I think it's roughly
Speaker 1: a pick them game. And the over under to me
Speaker 1: forty six and a half forty seven. I think it
Speaker 1: was fine. You know, I imagine that I guess I
Speaker 1: don't know, but I would imagine that most money would
Speaker 1: come in sort of on the under. You suggested that
Speaker 1: you like the over there to me the forty six
Speaker 1: and a half forty seven right around there. I'm sure
Speaker 1: that's where it's going to end up. But to me,
Speaker 1: both these numbers at this point kind of struck me
Speaker 1: as roughly correct. Let's move to your favorite team that
Speaker 1: you were talking about, the Vikings at the Packers. Now
Speaker 1: the Packers are the oddsmakers have adjusted, the Packers are
Speaker 1: favored just by three, and the over under is at
Speaker 1: forty four and a half. That has dropped a bit
Speaker 1: since earlier today it was at forty six, So the
Speaker 1: numbers dropped by about a point and a half. Again,
Speaker 1: Packers at three forty four and a half over under.
Speaker 1: The Vikings at the Packers, what's your reaction to that.
Speaker 2: My reaction was, the Vikings are probably going to be
Speaker 2: one of the biggest public underdogs of the week because
Speaker 2: everyone just saw how they dismantled an Atlanta team out there,
Speaker 2: and so look, the Packers looked great. They did well
Speaker 2: to say they've looked great, I think that defensively they
Speaker 2: looked amazing. That being said, as I said in the beginning,
Speaker 2: I think that they built their team to stop the
Speaker 2: Bears and the Minnesota is here is a cheat sheet
Speaker 2: on how I will bet against Minnesota or bet on
Speaker 2: Minnesota if they are playing a team that finished the
Speaker 2: year above five hundred the previous year. I Am going
Speaker 2: to bet against them and do it every single time.
Speaker 2: And conversely, nobody beats bad teams like Kirk Cousins. Now,
Speaker 2: this one gets a little bit tricky because I don't
Speaker 2: think this is the same Green Bay Packers team. I
Speaker 2: really don't. But yet they finished the year, you know,
Speaker 2: under five hundred last year. And that stat of Kirk
Speaker 2: Cousins is absolutely incredible.
Speaker 3: I'm trying.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna pull it up right now. He is basically
Speaker 2: about sixteen percent against the spread throughout his career against
Speaker 2: a team that finished whether he over five hundred record
Speaker 2: the year prior. So this one's a little bit of
Speaker 2: an anomaly. I think that the crowds are going to
Speaker 2: come and you know, look too back what they just
Speaker 2: saw again Week two is over reaction week and so
Speaker 2: it's a you gotta be very much aware of it. Again,
Speaker 2: a divisional, you know, opponent, I usually do like to
Speaker 2: lean towards the underdog, and as I said this, but
Speaker 2: this number at the plus three that we are looking
Speaker 2: at is something it's basically, you know, I don't want
Speaker 2: say it's to pick them because it is a key
Speaker 2: number and it can kind of come off of that,
Speaker 2: but it's it's absolutely crazy. And look, cousins, you know
Speaker 2: record verse winning teams is five and twenty five, and
Speaker 2: that is absolutely incredible. So in twenty eighteen, last year
Speaker 2: went one and six, road record thirteen and twenty three.
Speaker 2: These are just too many things to me to look
Speaker 2: to look at that divisional trend. So I would take
Speaker 2: three points here and avoid that you know, gross stinky
Speaker 2: public underdog on the road, and look, totals, you're always
Speaker 2: going to get me to take a lean towards that
Speaker 2: under on a divisional game. I do think that total
Speaker 2: is probably pretty much right on the money and just
Speaker 2: where about where I made it.
Speaker 1: So if you were gonna make the spread for this game,
Speaker 1: would you have it? What Packer laying five or what?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would put it right in what's called the
Speaker 2: dead zone. If I was an odds maker, I would this.
Speaker 2: You know, this game is really, like I just said,
Speaker 2: I don't exactly know what to do with it from
Speaker 2: a point spread perspective, because I just don't know about
Speaker 2: this Packers team yet, and that offense look bad, and
Speaker 2: look that Vikings offense looks great. Yet Cousins will you know,
Speaker 2: it's almost as if they've figured it out. They only
Speaker 2: let Cousins throw the ball I believe ten times last
Speaker 2: week and just had Dalvin Cook go wild. The Packers
Speaker 2: you're not going to be able to do that. All
Speaker 2: they are going to do is set that edge, contain
Speaker 2: Dalvin Cook and make Cousins, you know, beat them. And
Speaker 2: when you have a four to two safety and what
Speaker 2: I believe is the second fastest in the defense in
Speaker 2: the NFL, I put this in the dead zone and I,
Speaker 2: you know, really make you pay a premium if you
Speaker 2: want to back the Packers and find out and I
Speaker 2: think that would probably make a lot of people pass
Speaker 2: because traditionally fours and fives quote unquote dead numbers. But
Speaker 2: that's really what I would make that number right around
Speaker 2: that four four and a half to five point mark.
Speaker 1: All right, great, Well, before we move on, I do
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Speaker 1: move on to our next game. It's the Bills at
Speaker 1: the Giants. The Bills are laying one and a half
Speaker 1: and the over under a set at forty three and
Speaker 1: a half. What's your reaction here?
Speaker 2: I was really looking forward to what this line would be.
Speaker 2: And that is for you know, one reason, there is
Speaker 2: a you know what if I told you that this
Speaker 2: situation presents at something rather unique in the marketplace where
Speaker 2: one of these teams is you know, six point sixty
Speaker 2: seven percent against the spread in the spot that they're in,
Speaker 2: you know what that trend is when it comes to
Speaker 2: this scheduling statistic for the in this case the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 1: I do not what is it.
Speaker 2: Teams on back to back road games to start the
Speaker 2: season are one in fourteen against the numbers since twenty fifteen.
Speaker 3: And look, these.
Speaker 2: Usually aren't big numbers, so sometimes you can sneak in there,
Speaker 2: but usually these spots are really all about.
Speaker 3: You know, winning or losing.
Speaker 2: I think the Bills just came back in fashion and
Speaker 2: the public is going to see that as well. And
Speaker 2: this is a gross home underdog Bills non conference road game.
Speaker 2: These are all situations of look ahead spots after divisional
Speaker 2: game A hard fought one and by the way, the
Speaker 2: Colts are also in that discussion as well at the
Speaker 2: plus three against the Titans. But to me, this is
Speaker 2: the gross underdog nobody wants to take. And somehow we
Speaker 2: don't understand how the Bills beat the Jets and they
Speaker 2: just looked ahead to the next week. But this is
Speaker 2: a pretty good scheduling spot at least for the Giants,
Speaker 2: just to win the game at home against a Buffalo
Speaker 2: team that is still going through the motions here and again,
Speaker 2: when you talk about this total, you look at the
Speaker 2: Bills putting up just seventeen points last week, you look
Speaker 2: at the Giants putting up seventeen. That forty two number
Speaker 2: is very very low, begging people to take that over
Speaker 2: and maybe somebody gets it going. There is just not
Speaker 2: a lot of weapons on the field for these two teams,
Speaker 2: so I would have to go under there as long
Speaker 2: as you're over that key number.
Speaker 1: And what do you think about the one and a half? Then,
Speaker 1: I mean, what would you have said it at if
Speaker 1: you could make the line the Bills are right now
Speaker 1: laying one and a half, would you have then made
Speaker 1: it more of a pickum or.
Speaker 2: What if they Because I know the data behind that trend,
Speaker 2: and I think that it's you know, it depends what
Speaker 2: you put stock into. To me, I weigh that heavily
Speaker 2: when I go through my process and everything like that.
Speaker 2: So I may have a completely different number, but I
Speaker 2: would probably knowing what I know about you know how
Speaker 2: successful Again, that's what ninety four percent, you know, And
Speaker 2: in week two for those you know four teams that
Speaker 2: I just talked about, in this situation, I'm going to
Speaker 2: make you know, if you're a quote unquote sharp out there,
Speaker 2: I'm going to make you pay at tax for it,
Speaker 2: and I'm going to beg people to take the take the
Speaker 2: bills in that situation. So I would maybe I would go,
Speaker 2: you know, maybe even giants minus three make people scratch
Speaker 2: their head.
Speaker 3: I'd go four and a half.
Speaker 2: One's different just because I I'm sorry the uh yeah, giants.
Speaker 2: I would go giants minus three and make people, you know,
Speaker 2: dare people to take the bills in this dead that
Speaker 2: scheduling spot form.
Speaker 1: Wow interesting that there is one thing to note in
Speaker 1: that although it is back to back road games, it's
Speaker 1: in the same spot. They just faced the Jets and
Speaker 1: now they're facing the Giants. So it's the same stadium.
Speaker 1: I don't know if they stayed I would although I mean,
Speaker 1: I guess Buffalo's not too far, but I mean I
Speaker 1: wonder whether or not that's going to have any impact.
Speaker 1: But it's a great stat that you gave as for
Speaker 1: where I would see it going. I think it's probably
Speaker 1: going to stick right around here. I think, you know,
Speaker 1: they basically it's going to be about a point. If
Speaker 1: the Giants wound up being favored, I'm you know, certainly
Speaker 1: there would be a different way of betting. But for now,
Speaker 1: I think the Bills laying one and a half the
Speaker 1: over under at forty three and a half, I think
Speaker 1: that that's roughly where it's going to end up.
Speaker 3: Can I ask you one question about that though?
Speaker 2: Yeah, when it's under that too, mark, or let's say
Speaker 2: under two and a half, I think, you know, this
Speaker 2: is where I really, you know, really really differ on
Speaker 2: my opinion from a lot of professionals. I don't know
Speaker 2: that I, to be honest with you, care a ton.
Speaker 2: It wouldn't change my opinion on how I bet the game.
Speaker 2: If it was you know, Bills minus one in an
Speaker 2: hour half or if it was Giants one and a
Speaker 2: half or even up to that, you know two mark
Speaker 2: anything below that number to just win. Do you do
Speaker 2: you really, you know, would that change your opinion if
Speaker 2: it was flipped and inherently taking those quote unquote three
Speaker 2: points of value.
Speaker 1: If you gave me the giants lang.
Speaker 2: Three No, no, no, instead of giants, instead of giants, it
Speaker 2: was instead of giants plus one and a half, it
Speaker 2: was giants minus one and a half, and instead of
Speaker 2: bills minus one and a half was plus one and
Speaker 2: a half.
Speaker 1: No, No, I mean I think your point, you know,
Speaker 1: for me personally, No, I mean, I don't think that
Speaker 1: really makes a difference. I mean anything under probably under
Speaker 1: two really when you're below you know three at that point,
Speaker 1: if you're just talking about whatever the bet is, I
Speaker 1: don't really think it makes that much of a difference.
Speaker 1: But certainly if you moved it from one and a
Speaker 1: half to the giants one and a half. No, I mean,
Speaker 1: if you like the bills, you like the bills at
Speaker 1: that point. If you like the giants, you like the giants.
Speaker 1: So for me, I agree with you there. If that's
Speaker 1: what the point was, certainly not it wouldn't make a
Speaker 1: difference in how I would approach the game. But I mean,
Speaker 1: I think the public probably does, right, I mean the
Speaker 1: public probably When you move lines like that, I imagine
Speaker 1: that their perception of the game changes dramatically, wouldn't you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah? And look, gambling psychologueal psychology is something I've been
Speaker 2: fascinated for so long. And as soon as you put
Speaker 2: a minus next to a team and a plus next
Speaker 2: to a team, people instantly feel a certain way and oh,
Speaker 2: how how can the Bills be favored? Or how can
Speaker 2: Team X be favored? And in reality you're talking about
Speaker 2: maybe three cents between a you know, minus one ten
Speaker 2: no pickum game and minus one and a half minus
Speaker 2: one thirteen or plus one and a half minus one
Speaker 2: oh six. So I just think people kind of almost
Speaker 2: psyche themselves out too much just because of what you know,
Speaker 2: plus or minus sign is next to that number, when
Speaker 2: in reality those type of things don't genuinely come into play,
Speaker 2: you know, too too often.
Speaker 1: Yep, I think that's a good point. Next game, Jaguars
Speaker 1: at the Texans. Texans are playing right now, so things
Speaker 1: can change here. But the odds are the Texans are
Speaker 1: laying nine and a half points and the over under
Speaker 1: is fifty two and a half out of curiosity. Absent
Speaker 1: a major offensive line injury or an injury to Watson
Speaker 1: tonight while they're playing, would you expect anything really moving
Speaker 1: this line significantly or do you think roughly nine and
Speaker 1: a half and under fifty over under fifty two and
Speaker 1: a half is where we end up.
Speaker 2: It's going to be where we end up. This is
Speaker 2: obviously changed so much when you go from fulls to
Speaker 2: Gardner Minshaw. But look, I think that this is that's
Speaker 2: going to be the story with this Jags team, and
Speaker 2: you know kind of how he progresses. Look, there's always
Speaker 2: a rookie quarterback. There's always somebody that comes out, and
Speaker 2: a narrative never plays out exactly how you thought, and
Speaker 2: these stories happen and you get to try to spot those,
Speaker 2: you know, trends in the market or inefficiencies before the
Speaker 2: market catches up here. And look the you know, odds
Speaker 2: makers have no idea what to do with a you know,
Speaker 2: what is Minshaw worth to a spread? You know, they
Speaker 2: didn't know what to do when Tom Brady came into
Speaker 2: the league. What is he worth to a spread? Nobody
Speaker 2: knows these things until they have data to kind of
Speaker 2: show it. I mean, you could you can't even quantify it,
Speaker 2: you know, preseason. I know, I got a lot to
Speaker 2: run all that type of stuff here, but this line
Speaker 2: probably does not move. Look, the narrative is already written
Speaker 2: for Jacksonville. Oddsmakers have shown that if the Texans get
Speaker 2: blown out or if they you know, pull the upright outset,
Speaker 2: which I do think they are a live underdog in
Speaker 2: that spot this week, you know, maybe it gets over.
Speaker 2: You know, maybe it just goes bananas, just like the
Speaker 2: Dolphins and Patriots land line. But I really don't see
Speaker 2: much of a move. I mean, you'd have to be
Speaker 2: talking about twenty plus point victory for this line to
Speaker 2: get over that key number of ten before professionals would
Speaker 2: undoubtedly buy back on a divisional underdog.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, I think basically you've nailed it in
Speaker 1: that it's really tough to handicap this game because you
Speaker 1: just don't know what it's going to look like now
Speaker 1: with the Foles injury. So I think nine and a
Speaker 1: half over under fifty two and a half absent something
Speaker 1: dramatic tonight is probably where we're going to end up.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Cardinals at the Ravens. We've
Speaker 1: got the Ravens lanth thirteen points and the over under
Speaker 1: set at forty six. That's moved a bit. I've checked
Speaker 1: earlier today it was at forty four, so it's moved
Speaker 1: up two points. What are your reaction to Ravens lank
Speaker 1: thirteen over under forty six against the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: My reaction was that total is l ow low. I
Speaker 2: get it in a way because look, you were talking
Speaker 2: about you know, Kingsbury famously saying that was three of
Speaker 2: the worst offensive, you know, three quarters of the worst
Speaker 2: offense I've ever seen. You look at that fourth quarter
Speaker 2: and look, Kyler Murray's going to have growing pains. But
Speaker 2: look at the end of the day twenty nine for
Speaker 2: fifty fourth three h eight and two. You know, I
Speaker 2: was The Ravens are such a fascinating case study to
Speaker 2: me in so many different ways because what they did
Speaker 2: is reinvent their whole philosophy. How long have there evens
Speaker 2: been run first, defense first, and you know all this stuff.
Speaker 2: Now all of a sudden they're playing the madd and
Speaker 2: O seven running gun with you know, Michael vic two
Speaker 2: point zero over there, and nobody knows what to come.
Speaker 2: That's why I love, you know, in some ways it's
Speaker 2: very difficult. But from a you know, fan perspective, from
Speaker 2: a handicapper perspective, some games you have to sit back
Speaker 2: and watch and build your opinion on. In some games
Speaker 2: you could spot in an efficiency. I believe that the
Speaker 2: Packers in you know, last week wasn't inefficiency not knowing
Speaker 2: you know, what that offense would look like. This is look,
Speaker 2: without a doubt, the side total or the side side
Speaker 2: of this is this is a complete overreaction. If you're
Speaker 2: a value guy, you are going to take you know,
Speaker 2: any any professional tell you always, you know, take ten
Speaker 2: points or more just about any time in the NFL.
Speaker 2: And this is, you know, value wise, this is a
Speaker 2: over reaction we do. And look, I think there's a
Speaker 2: real situation that Miami was just that bad and this
Speaker 2: Ravens team is you can't look that good every week.
Speaker 2: I don't think the Ravens are the Kansas City Chiefs
Speaker 2: of a year ago, although the league is changing, but
Speaker 2: that over I'm I would definitely that was my first
Speaker 2: one is that seems very low for what Kyler Murray
Speaker 2: was able to show. And look, the difference was Kyler
Speaker 2: Murray was able to run his you know, his style,
Speaker 2: he ran up tempo, no huddles. Well, that's what he
Speaker 2: did at Oklahoma shotgun. And so if things do pan
Speaker 2: out for the Ravens, this one could be fireworks of plenty.
Speaker 1: And do you think the thirteen number is right or
Speaker 1: do you think that that should be significantly lower? Sounds
Speaker 1: like you feel like the either the sports books or
Speaker 1: the market generally has been overreacting a bit.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again week two overreaction week I would probably
Speaker 2: make this one if even I want to kind of
Speaker 2: I mean, the look aheadline I believe was like it's
Speaker 2: vastly different. Let's just say that I think it's maybe
Speaker 2: even five or six points difference. And so if you
Speaker 2: are a value based guy, that's you know what you're
Speaker 2: going to take.
Speaker 3: Make me pick.
Speaker 2: I would definitely look towards that underdog, just because you know,
Speaker 2: bet team or bet numbers not teams right, and kind
Speaker 2: of ignore what you saw in Bilosa High all that
Speaker 2: type of stuff. I probably make this one based on
Speaker 2: what I seen, which again is still probably a little
Speaker 2: bit of an overreaction, maybe eight and a half nine.
Speaker 2: And again, I'm not a value based handicapper. I don't
Speaker 2: take points just to take points. In this league where
Speaker 2: the spread is mattering less and less every single week,
Speaker 2: So maybe you know, throw them a little teaser, maybe
Speaker 2: get down to that look ahead number something like that.
Speaker 2: But I would make this one much closer to what
Speaker 2: I see for the Jaguars and the Texans, or even
Speaker 2: a little bit less.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it struck me as high. It really did. I
Speaker 1: don't necessarily think it's going to move anywhere, because I
Speaker 1: think people are, you know, as much as people might
Speaker 1: like you know, Murray and be excited by him, I
Speaker 1: think what the Ravens data is just going to be
Speaker 1: fresh in the public's mind. So it struck me as high.
Speaker 1: I would have thought it was probably closer to you know,
Speaker 1: the ten mark one way or another. So thirteen struck
Speaker 1: me as high. But I don't expect it to move
Speaker 1: all that much going forward. Forty nine ers at the Bengals.
Speaker 1: Forty nine ers are now plus half a point. They
Speaker 1: were at minus one when I checked earlier today. I
Speaker 1: don't know if that is the Tevin Coleman injury or
Speaker 1: what the over under is now at forty five. Joe
Speaker 1: Mixon also may miss the game, but he has a
Speaker 1: chance to sit up so right now because Census odds
Speaker 1: are forty nine ers plus half a point in the
Speaker 1: over under at forty five.
Speaker 2: What do you think, same situation. I can't really waiver
Speaker 2: from the from us. You know, something that's been so
Speaker 2: successful for me, forty nine ers back to back road games,
Speaker 2: and you know, the numbers tell me I have to
Speaker 2: take the other side no matter what the number was.
Speaker 2: Do I wish the Bengals were catching you know, a
Speaker 2: three spot here three and a half? Absolutely, but look,
Speaker 2: Cincinnati looked very good in a spot where many people
Speaker 2: picked them to kind of you know, challenge the Dolphins
Speaker 2: to have the worst record, especially without aj Green, and
Speaker 2: you know, and the first quarter they're winning, you know,
Speaker 2: they're up at half. They just dropped it in the
Speaker 2: fourth quarter and that could certainly happen. You know, this
Speaker 2: Seahawks team, you know, when you look at to compare
Speaker 2: to the Bengals and kind of, you know, give them
Speaker 2: that measuring stick task. I think Seattle's you know, I
Speaker 2: thought was a lot better than them, and maybe that
Speaker 2: was you know, that was a tough spot for Cincinnati again,
Speaker 2: a non conference road game to open up the year.
Speaker 2: All those type of things that are coming into play here.
Speaker 2: So look, I got to take the number regardless of
Speaker 2: what it is in terms of the value. And when
Speaker 2: you talk about you know, Cincinnati did a pretty good
Speaker 2: job limiting that offense, and you can't really say that
Speaker 2: a lot about the Cincinnati defense usually. But to me,
Speaker 2: that forty five a little bit short. I just think
Speaker 2: that there's a narrative here that Garoppolo I don't know
Speaker 2: that he can be this bad. I really do believe that.
Speaker 2: And look, all the guy does is win when he's
Speaker 2: healthy and he's in there. But to me, he just
Speaker 2: don't rust all that type of stuff. Compounded with I
Speaker 2: think he was just getting back into the flow. And
Speaker 2: again all he does is also lose weapons around him. Right,
Speaker 2: So look at Dalton. I mean foury eighteen and two
Speaker 2: without an AJ Green and the San Francisco team had
Speaker 2: two interceptions all of last year, already surpassed that turnover
Speaker 2: differential comes around, but not to the point of, you know,
Speaker 2: tripling it in the first two weeks. So while Dalton's
Speaker 2: been known to throw an interception or two, I think
Speaker 2: this one does go over the total, and I think
Speaker 2: Garoppolo is going to be the key to that. But
Speaker 2: I do think he gets it going at least a
Speaker 2: little bit to get over that number.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to one of the more
Speaker 1: fascinating lines of the week, The Patriots at the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: The Patriots are at at this point, they're at minus
Speaker 1: seventeen and a half. It has been moving all day
Speaker 1: towards the Patriots. The over under a set at forty seven.
Speaker 1: I mean, you've been doing this for a long time.
Speaker 1: When's the last time you've seen they've spread this high
Speaker 1: for a road favorite? Because I can't remember it.
Speaker 3: Ooh, put me on the spot.
Speaker 1: That is a no, no, I'm not asking, it's all right,
Speaker 1: no no, But I mean, what do you think of
Speaker 1: this seventeen and a half? The Dolphins looked at bismol.
Speaker 1: The Pats looked as good as they ever have their
Speaker 1: getting brown back. I mean, what do you think of
Speaker 1: this line?
Speaker 2: I would say, first, well, I think it was probably
Speaker 2: the undefeated year. Whenever they played the Jets for the
Speaker 2: second time late in the year. Would probably my guess
Speaker 2: is to when that that second time was maybe Buffalo.
Speaker 2: But this look, again, it depends on your philosophy. Are
Speaker 2: you a you know, are you going to take the
Speaker 2: points value every single time?
Speaker 3: Or are you not?
Speaker 2: And look, I mean, god, bless oz makers. They've they've finally,
Speaker 2: you know, put the Patriots tax too high for even
Speaker 2: me and I there's really wasn't a Patriots tax that
Speaker 2: I was afraid to play throughout the basically over the
Speaker 2: past three to four years. The first bet I make
Speaker 2: every single year when when any line's open, as the
Speaker 2: Patriots to win the AFC East, because I feel like
Speaker 2: they should be priced like Lebron and the Cavaliers were
Speaker 2: all those years. It's absolutely crazy to me that there
Speaker 2: are plus money every single year and then everyone, you know,
Speaker 2: things crash and oh my god, look this is the
Speaker 2: p the NFL is the Patriots league here and anything
Speaker 2: else is you know, at least to put yourself in
Speaker 2: a position to hedge guarantee money week to week and
Speaker 2: certainly in the futures market, can I get behind laying
Speaker 2: seventeen and a half on the road. Look, this is
Speaker 2: a weird spot because usually the Dolphins come into Foxborough
Speaker 2: in the first game and Patriots play in Miami every December.
Speaker 2: Basically since the last ten plus years that I can remember,
Speaker 2: that's always, always always been the case. That's why the
Speaker 2: Patriots always struggle Ats or even outright against Miami in
Speaker 2: that December spot, So you're getting that here. Look the
Speaker 2: Dolphins the second time around. It's no matter what the
Speaker 2: number is, always a blind bet. I can't remember lying
Speaker 2: getting this out of control in a very long time. Look,
Speaker 2: maybe you treat this like Alabama and you play a
Speaker 2: little Patriots first quarter or something like that. I don't
Speaker 2: even know what to do with this. I have to
Speaker 2: pass because the tax is just too high.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's just been moving all day long,
Speaker 1: so I can't imagine it gets much higher than seventeen
Speaker 1: and a half. But it opened at fourteen essentially, and
Speaker 1: it was like, you know, it's moved two points essentially
Speaker 1: over the last I think it's.
Speaker 3: Like ten and a half in some spots.
Speaker 1: Honestly, it's just crazy. I mean recently when I looked
Speaker 1: at it, originally it was at fourteen and then it
Speaker 1: just kept going. So my guess is going to hit
Speaker 1: a tipping point. This is probably about where it is
Speaker 1: you started getting in eighteen nineteen. I mean, it's just insane.
Speaker 1: So my guess is this is a round where it
Speaker 1: ends up. Let's move on to the Chiefs at the
Speaker 1: Raiders I don't have an over under right now because
Speaker 1: the Raiders haven't played yet, so books haven't at least
Speaker 1: what I've seen come out with it. Or we don't
Speaker 1: have a consensus anyway. But the Chiefs are laying nine points.
Speaker 1: They've lost Tyreek Hill. Ma Holmes has a bit of
Speaker 1: an angle injury. I mean, what do you think. It's
Speaker 1: hard to know, of course, because we haven't seen the
Speaker 1: Raiders play yet. What do you think about the Chiefs
Speaker 1: at the Raiders laying nine points?
Speaker 3: You nailed it.
Speaker 2: We don't know what to see, you know, what to
Speaker 2: expect out of this Raiders team.
Speaker 3: It could go way.
Speaker 2: You know, the Raiders to me are always kind of
Speaker 2: I equate them in Major League Baseball to the Mets.
Speaker 2: There's just such a range of outcomes every single year,
Speaker 2: and usually.
Speaker 1: You're talking so much about my teams. Man, I'm a mess.
Speaker 1: Here is just NonStop. It's fine, I get it, go ahead, Sorry, keep.
Speaker 2: Going, No, It's just look, there's so many ranges of outcomes.
Speaker 2: If you know the pitching staff on the Mets, could
Speaker 2: you know they could be basically top three, one, two
Speaker 2: three in Si Young votes every single year, or they
Speaker 2: could you know, be at the bottom of the division.
Speaker 2: Just there's so many ranges of outcomes. The floor is
Speaker 2: so low. But I guess in theory even without Ab,
Speaker 2: I mean, what is the ceiling without him? That's what
Speaker 2: we have to find out. Look this the Chiefs are
Speaker 2: in a bad situational spot here back to back road games,
Speaker 2: banged up. Is Sammy Watkins, this player that we saw
Speaker 2: last week. In my opinion, no, I have to take
Speaker 2: the points here because it's I have to do it
Speaker 2: blindly in a situational spot week two that I do
Speaker 2: every single season. So the number, I'm glad it's it's
Speaker 2: a little bit higher than basically a pick them for
Speaker 2: all the other ones. Maybe they sneak in there and
Speaker 2: back door at Allah Washington last year. But I got
Speaker 2: to take the number. I gotta take the Raiders nine.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think this one might move depending
Speaker 1: on what the Raiders look like right now without Ab,
Speaker 1: and of course depending on how Mahomes looks. But there's
Speaker 1: a lot of variables here. It's a tough one to
Speaker 1: really handicap in this point. So minus nine, I don't
Speaker 1: really know. I think it's probably struck me is right
Speaker 1: around where it needs to be given the Hill injury
Speaker 1: and without knowing much from the Raiders. But we'll find
Speaker 1: out a lot more tonight, as we will with the
Speaker 1: next game, the Bears at the Broncos. Right now, we've
Speaker 1: got the Bears getting half a point, but we talked
Speaker 1: about that FanDuel line that's messing it up a little bit.
Speaker 1: The consensus was at Broncos laying half a point and
Speaker 1: the over under is forty two and a half. Again,
Speaker 1: we need to see what the Broncos look like. I
Speaker 1: did see a stat today though, that I thought was
Speaker 1: worth pointing out. I believe it was Warren Sharp. He
Speaker 1: noted that the Broncos are twenty two and one at
Speaker 1: home in the first two weeks of the season since
Speaker 1: two thousand. I don't know if something like that matters
Speaker 1: to you, But what do you think here. Let's make
Speaker 1: it the Bears getting half a point, which is the
Speaker 1: consensus ods and the over under forty two and a
Speaker 1: half again without really knowing what the Broncos look like
Speaker 1: because we haven't seen him play yet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so look that the trend certainly matters to me,
Speaker 2: But some things are just an anomaly, and you know,
Speaker 2: if you're at a roulette table, Red can come up
Speaker 2: twenty two times in a row, right, Well, is there
Speaker 2: a reason for it in that situation? No, But let's
Speaker 2: dig deeper and say why are they That is because
Speaker 2: at that elevation, at that air, the Denver Broncos are equipped,
Speaker 2: they know how to handle it, they know how to play,
Speaker 2: and teams coming in early in the season again talking
Speaker 2: about this unconditioned, they're not in you know, full season
Speaker 2: grind mode. They're not you know, into this, you know,
Speaker 2: into the full swing. And that to me is such
Speaker 2: the reason why. And look, Oddsmakers did a great job
Speaker 2: with this line. I really do believe that because I
Speaker 2: wanted to take the Bears, you know, hoping that the overreaction,
Speaker 2: because again I truly believe that that game last week
Speaker 2: says so much more about Green Bay and what they
Speaker 2: did to build their team to beat that division rival,
Speaker 2: more than it even says about the Bears. And again
Speaker 2: I'm not the biggest Bears believer here, but they made
Speaker 2: this line in the exact place that's going to keep
Speaker 2: me off of it. It really really did, because I
Speaker 2: can't go against twenty two and one. If you if
Speaker 2: you think I'm going against that, you're absolutely crazy. It's
Speaker 2: a very real thing. And when you talk about that total,
Speaker 2: the under makes an absolute ton of sense, knowing you know,
Speaker 2: Chicago's offense tired, you know these traditional what does elevation do?
Speaker 2: It makes you, you know, slower, it makes you breathe heavier,
Speaker 2: and so while the Broncos, you know, maybe equipped offensively
Speaker 2: to handle the physical limitations, I just don't think there's
Speaker 2: enough talent to overcome the Bears defense. So i'd love
Speaker 2: that at the number for the under absolutely stuck out
Speaker 2: to me, but I have to pass on the side
Speaker 2: just because of that show that you mentioned.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the over under at forty two and
Speaker 1: a half, which is low, is pretty right on for
Speaker 1: all the reasons you said. I wouldn't expect it to
Speaker 1: move the line. I think it's going to bounce around
Speaker 1: a little bit, but it's gonna not be It's going
Speaker 1: to be close to essentially a pick them in the end.
Speaker 1: And you know, it's an interesting game for sure, to
Speaker 1: say the least. But we'll see how tonight goes for
Speaker 1: the Broncos. Now, before we get into our last few games,
Speaker 1: I want to remind everyone that we're giving away and
Speaker 1: autographed Alvin Kamara helmet this month. To be entered into
Speaker 1: our contest, all you need to do is leave a
Speaker 1: review for the podcast on iTunes or Stitcher and senday's
Speaker 1: screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 1: And again I pointed this out before we only started
Speaker 1: this season, so it's not like there are thousands of
Speaker 1: entries here. You have a legitimate shot to win if
Speaker 1: you send in a screenshot of your review, and if
Speaker 1: you entered last month's contest and did not win the
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey Helmet, then you are automatically entered this month already,
Speaker 1: so no need to worry about that. All right, Let's
Speaker 1: move on again to another game. That's a little tough
Speaker 1: because we haven't seen the team play yet, although we
Speaker 1: know generally what they are. This is the Saints at
Speaker 1: the Rams. The Rams are laying three. We don't have
Speaker 1: an over under yet because the Saints haven't played and
Speaker 1: there's no consensus sides. But what do you think about
Speaker 1: the Rams laying three to the Saints.
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people look at last week
Speaker 2: and you know, maybe the Rams offense wasn't what they remember. Look,
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl hangover is very, very real in team's
Speaker 2: week one. You know, there's there's great data out there
Speaker 2: where basically any team that is not the Patriots goes
Speaker 2: under their season win total if they lose a super
Speaker 2: Bowl the next year. In Week one is a nightmare
Speaker 2: situational spot for super Bowl losers. It's just everything as fresh,
Speaker 2: everything is, you still have that hangover. It's it's very real,
Speaker 2: and I think this is the ultimate kind of overreaction.
Speaker 2: Look to me, I need this. This is gonna sound
Speaker 2: weird because every you know, situation is different, everything like that,
Speaker 2: and I completely understand that. But narrative wise, look, the
Speaker 2: Saints have not had success in Week one, and so
Speaker 2: if they do end up you know, dropping this you know,
Speaker 2: uh home game against Houston on Monday night, could they
Speaker 2: start the season zero and two? Very real possibility. I
Speaker 2: think this is really where the Rams are. You know,
Speaker 2: now they can put last season behind them, you know again,
Speaker 2: depending on the number and everything like that. It was
Speaker 2: a really bad spot for them last week, and that's
Speaker 2: why the number looked a lot you know, fishier to
Speaker 2: some people who couldn't believe that the you know, that
Speaker 2: line was so short in this Rams you know offense,
Speaker 2: is this and that I get it, but I need
Speaker 2: to see what the Saints do in this spot to
Speaker 2: kind of really make my opinion, just you know, doing
Speaker 2: this one kind of blind without that, this is a
Speaker 2: very short number where the public and even odds makers
Speaker 2: are really underestimating the Rams, looking at it as an
Speaker 2: x's and o's thing or a scheme thing, when really,
Speaker 2: in my mind, that was just the worst situational spot
Speaker 2: for the Rams to come out, and they just needed
Speaker 2: to exercise last semon season's demons and put that behind them.
Speaker 2: That three is very very short to me. Aaron Donald
Speaker 2: could rek Havoc and Drew Brees all day.
Speaker 1: And out of curiosity. We don't have the over under yet,
Speaker 1: but what do you think the over under is going
Speaker 1: to be? Roughly two high powered offenses? Of course, what
Speaker 1: do you think? Make your prediction. I won't hold you
Speaker 1: to it, but let me know what you think it is.
Speaker 3: Oh man, that's don't worry.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to hold you to it. You could
Speaker 1: just come off the top of your head. You're good.
Speaker 2: Absolutely not. You got to hold me to it. I
Speaker 2: would say fifty six and a half at least.
Speaker 1: I like it. I like it all right. I was
Speaker 1: thinking fifty five, but I like it fifty six and
Speaker 1: a half. I bet you know you do this for
Speaker 1: a living. Of course you're probably a little more accurate.
Speaker 1: Fifty five was a number that stuck out to me,
Speaker 1: assuming no major injuries, of course, of course, to Breeze
Speaker 1: or any real skill player around the Saints. Let's move
Speaker 1: on to the Eagles. At the Falcons, the Falcons are
Speaker 1: laying one here and the over under a set at
Speaker 1: fifty one. I was a little surprised by this one.
Speaker 1: I get that the Falcons are home. I kind of
Speaker 1: expected this to either be a pick them or maybe
Speaker 1: even the Eagles to be favored by a point. But
Speaker 1: what's your reaction to Falcons laying one and the over
Speaker 1: under at fifty one.
Speaker 3: Let's break this down.
Speaker 2: This was the we've I feel like we said this
Speaker 2: a couple times on lines that stick out to us
Speaker 2: and some that we make pretty much the same on
Speaker 2: I do not understand this, And look say I don't
Speaker 2: understand it. Divisional underdogs.
Speaker 3: I get it.
Speaker 2: Did Philly come out you know slow where they down
Speaker 2: seventeen or ten nothing, whatever it was, seventeen three, seventeen
Speaker 2: seve whatever it was to start that game. Absolutely Philadelphia.
Speaker 2: To me, I think they're one of the best. The
Speaker 2: top two teams in the NFC, or let's say this,
Speaker 2: two out of the top three in my mind are
Speaker 2: the Eagles and the Cowboys, and they're both playing the
Speaker 2: same division. And I don't even put the Falcons close,
Speaker 2: especially with that defense and all the injuries. And really,
Speaker 2: just look, we saw this last last week. Are the
Speaker 2: Vikings this month? This is an overreaction. When you do
Speaker 2: a little bit of Oddsmaker math here, you know, Vikings
Speaker 2: being favored over the Eagles is what this is saying,
Speaker 2: which is a little bit crazy to me. The Eagles
Speaker 2: maybe the heaviest betside. I think I've said that a
Speaker 2: couple of times, but now I'm changing this for the
Speaker 2: last time to the Eagles because everyone is going to
Speaker 2: look at this and again this is psychological just because
Speaker 2: there's a plus in front of the Eagles. Oh the disrespect.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, Carson Wentz all these weapons to Seawan Jackson. Look,
Speaker 2: DeShawn Jackson's a boomer bust guy. That was a revenge
Speaker 2: game on a team that he didn't want to be.
Speaker 3: A part of. That's narrative rights itself.
Speaker 2: That's Sean Jackson one oh one that when he's motivated,
Speaker 2: he gets behind a defense. When he's not, he can
Speaker 2: take some stuff off. So the Falcons need to not
Speaker 2: you know, need to not be oing to. That's that's
Speaker 2: number one. The Eagles got out of Washington with a
Speaker 2: division win, so in theory, could they you know, kind
Speaker 2: of lose this one and be okay?
Speaker 3: Sure? I don't know.
Speaker 2: Public bet percentages are a very weird thing. When I
Speaker 2: look at this, I just didn't I make this line
Speaker 2: much different and be honest with you, but I understand it. Thought,
Speaker 2: what would you make it minus three and a half Eagles?
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. I mean that that's the thing. That's
Speaker 1: what's sort of stuck out to me here. I'm shocked.
Speaker 1: I imagine it's going to move. Do you think they're
Speaker 1: going to leave it where it is? Or do you
Speaker 1: think it's going to depend on the money that comes in?
Speaker 2: Here's my thing is it depends on the camp that
Speaker 2: you're in, because if it most from Eagles minus one
Speaker 2: to Eagles minus two, it's no difference to me.
Speaker 3: And that's the psychological aspect.
Speaker 2: But you would feel better about betting the Eagles if
Speaker 2: it was Eagles minus two almost rather than if it
Speaker 2: was Eagles because you feel like you're missing something, right,
Speaker 2: that's the psychological aspect of these numbers that you really
Speaker 2: have to start to take advantage or at least be
Speaker 2: self aware of of what's happening to you. And I
Speaker 2: just talked you through it. That's that plus one just
Speaker 2: makes you say, something is so wrong here. I have
Speaker 2: to stay away. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. I
Speaker 2: would say a lot of people would feel a lot
Speaker 2: better about this if it was just Eagles minus one
Speaker 2: instead of plus one. So to me, look, I make
Speaker 2: this Eagles minus three and a half on a pure
Speaker 2: handicap kind of last week aside, you know, taking account
Speaker 2: for narratives and kind of what happened and injuries and
Speaker 2: all that. So look a little short to me is
Speaker 2: what I would say.
Speaker 1: Yep, I agree. All right, let's hit our last game,
Speaker 1: Browns at the Jets. The Browns are laying two and
Speaker 1: a half. The over under is forty six. What are
Speaker 1: your thoughts here?
Speaker 2: Overreaction central here? Look, Cleveland was favored by I believe
Speaker 2: seven if they look aheadline at this, but you know
Speaker 2: time and time ago and now because they drop a
Speaker 2: divisional game in their opener, and now the hype train
Speaker 2: and now it's the same old Browns and it's this
Speaker 2: And look, I am not a Brown's believer. I believe
Speaker 2: that you see what you know, look what your eyes
Speaker 2: are showing you, and look at the data, and you
Speaker 2: can largely discount some stuff. And I thought that when
Speaker 2: the hype gets so real, you can look this In
Speaker 2: college football in Nebraska Ucla, there's all these different, you know,
Speaker 2: kind of hype trains. The Chargers every year are a
Speaker 2: big one for the general public. This is a very
Speaker 2: short look at either Cleveland goes oh in two and
Speaker 2: the season's over. You know, that's the narrative that'll be floated,
Speaker 2: and the Jets go one in one. This is a big,
Speaker 2: big overreaction for a Jets team that won, you know,
Speaker 2: three quarters against I would say, a pretty equal Buffalo team.
Speaker 2: Those games are always back and forth. Look, Cleveland dropped
Speaker 2: their opener and now they're all of a sudden, I
Speaker 2: think that their narrative, maybe even though it's not true,
Speaker 2: is the backs against the wall, because it would be
Speaker 2: such a story if they did start oh in two.
Speaker 2: And there's you know, the biggest Super Bowl liability for
Speaker 2: sports books. I don't say this very often because I'd
Speaker 2: like to fade public hype, but I think that that
Speaker 2: Browns minus two and a half when you look at
Speaker 2: looking at it look ahead, that was about seven overreaction
Speaker 2: Central was my first thought.
Speaker 1: Do you think it's going to move in favor of
Speaker 1: the Browns.
Speaker 2: I think this is the ultimate middle opportunity for professionals.
Speaker 2: I think if it gets to a three, you'll see
Speaker 2: a minus one twenty three and a half and a
Speaker 2: minus one twenty two and a half. And most professionals
Speaker 2: that I know would look to middle that every single time,
Speaker 2: taking both sides.
Speaker 1: All right, that's some good stuff, and thank you for
Speaker 1: not speaking ill of the Jets like you have for
Speaker 1: the rest of the podcast. I really appreciate that. Come on,
Speaker 1: I'm just kidding, buddy, you did great and now you know,
Speaker 1: as a Jet spent I'm used to it anyway. But
Speaker 1: that's gonna do it for today's show. Christian, thanks so
Speaker 1: much for joining me. I'd love to have you back
Speaker 1: on later in the season to give your reaction to
Speaker 1: the opening lines and make some picks next time.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, my friend. Thank you so much for the opportunity
Speaker 2: to take care. We'll talk soon, all.
Speaker 1: Right, great, Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show,
Speaker 1: bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app
Speaker 1: and use the promo code Harris to get your risk
Speaker 1: free five hundred dollars wager. And don't forget to enter
Speaker 1: our September contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin
Speaker 1: Kamara helmet. Just leave a review for the show on
Speaker 1: iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review
Speaker 1: to contest at bettingpros dot com. We'll be back later
Speaker 1: this week giving some of our best bets for Week two.
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you then.
Speaker 3: Oh, it's