WEBVTT - NFL Week 2 Game Lines Preview (Ep. 8) 0:00:07.360 --> 0:00:09.880 Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of 0:00:09.920 --> 0:00:13.520 the Betting pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:15.840 I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me 0:00:15.880 --> 0:00:18.599 on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. Week one is in 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:20.759 the books, and as always, it was a tough week 0:00:20.800 --> 0:00:23.959 to handicap, but now we have some actionable information to 0:00:24.000 --> 0:00:27.240 guide our decision making going forward. As always, as soon 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:29.800 as week one ends, we need to start immediately looking 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:32.120 to week two, So as we always do on our 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:34.680 Monday show, we're going to be taking an early look 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:37.760 at next week's lines. We're not making picks here, We're 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:40.479 just giving our initial reaction to the lines as they 0:00:40.479 --> 0:00:42.559 first come out. And with me to break it all 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:45.560 down is Christian Pena, a professional sports better and a 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:48.760 writer and managing editor for the Sports Betting Podcast. You 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:51.040 can find them on Twitter at the very convenient at 0:00:51.120 --> 0:00:54.160 Christian Pina. That's p I n A, Christian. How's it going, man, 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:54.840 good man. 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:58.480 It's always fun talking with new people and companies that 0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:00.000 are coming up into the space, and I've been say 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:01.279 such a fan of what you guys have done on 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:04.440 other ends and other areas, so I really appreciate you 0:01:04.480 --> 0:01:06.720 thinking of me and I'm excited for you know, week two, 0:01:06.760 --> 0:01:09.160 Week one, you know the biggest differences to me in 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:11.440 the NFL season. It's so funny we think of ourselves 0:01:11.480 --> 0:01:14.280 as you know, these three month handicappers because Week one 0:01:14.360 --> 0:01:16.759 kind of comes, you know, the lines open three months 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:18.640 in advance, and then everything we have to shift to 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:21.920 basically five day handicappers. So Week two, to me, both 0:01:21.920 --> 0:01:24.480 in college football and the National Football League is one 0:01:24.560 --> 0:01:27.639 of the most unique, in my opinion, really challenging weeks 0:01:27.640 --> 0:01:28.120 of the year. 0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:31.280 Yeah, out of curiosity. If we had talked last week 0:01:31.319 --> 0:01:33.120 for Week one and again you talked about it, and 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:35.120 we talked about this last week, which is you know, 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:38.240 the Week one lines come out months in advance, and 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:39.880 we talked a little bit about how they moved from 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:42.479 when they first dropped. Did any of them coming into 0:01:42.560 --> 0:01:46.280 basically on Monday as of last week, did any of 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:48.360 them really jump out to is off when you first 0:01:48.360 --> 0:01:50.520 looked at him. I'm not saying necessarily to place a bet, 0:01:50.520 --> 0:01:52.200 but just where if you were you know, you're a 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:54.680 professional sports better basically if you were placing a bet 0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:57.240 when you looked at you said wow, I expected that line. 0:01:57.280 --> 0:02:00.160 Either an over under or spread on any particular game 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:03.360 to be significantly high or lower. Was it about where 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:04.040 you thought it would be? 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:06.360 You mean it for week one when they opened for 0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:06.880 Week one? 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:08.639 Yeah, not this week. We'll talk all about this week, 0:02:08.680 --> 0:02:10.519 But I meant last week. If I had you on 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:12.360 on our Monday show from last week, we were talking 0:02:12.360 --> 0:02:14.240 about some lines and one or two of them stuck 0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:16.600 out to us as a little bit off, just that 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:18.240 we would expect it to be a little bit different. 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:20.640 I was just wondering out of curiosity from last week, 0:02:20.960 --> 0:02:22.840 whether you had been on on Monday and we were 0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:24.799 analyzing the week one lines, whether or not any of 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:26.720 them would have stuck out to you as a little 0:02:26.720 --> 0:02:27.079 bit off. 0:02:27.280 --> 0:02:29.440 Yeah, let's talk about that Green Bay Packers line and 0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:32.520 the fact that they were an underdog. I understand that 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:34.320 they were on the rope, but when you look at this, 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:37.680 I mean, it's crazy how much the market and perception 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:39.799 of a team can shift on you know, a very 0:02:39.840 --> 0:02:42.000 short sample size. And make no mistake, the National Football 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:44.000 League is a very short sample size. You're talking about 0:02:44.000 --> 0:02:47.600 sixteen games where you know there's it's notorious that you know, 0:02:47.680 --> 0:02:51.040 sometimes professionals are a year early on teams. We saw this, 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:53.600 you know, they were backing the Browns and got you know, 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:55.880 absolutely killed for a while. You know, but they were 0:02:55.919 --> 0:02:57.639 just a year early. The same thing happened a couple 0:02:57.639 --> 0:03:00.239 of years ago. They were a year early on Jacksonville. 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:03.000 So the short sample size in the marketplace. Look, I mean, 0:03:03.200 --> 0:03:06.720 I don't understand how the Chicago team was favored at all. 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:09.640 And you know, inherently that's going to present some value. 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:11.880 And you get Aaron Rodgers, who has amazing success in 0:03:11.919 --> 0:03:14.520 the division against that you know, particular number not to 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:17.080 mention the script was one hundred and eighty degrees flipped 0:03:17.080 --> 0:03:19.000 from last year when Chicago was coming in with a 0:03:19.040 --> 0:03:22.120 new offense, and you know, green Bay to me, really 0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:24.519 I don't understand that. You know how they were in 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:27.960 an underdog when green Bay built their team to you know, 0:03:28.040 --> 0:03:30.880 contain Mitch Trubisky's legs and you know, beat the Bears, 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:32.480 and for lack of a better term, they got so 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:35.120 much faster with their draft pick and you know, Savage, 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:37.480 the safety is probably already you know, running a four 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:39.240 to two, one of the fastest guys in the back 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:41.040 end in the league. And they learned how to you know, 0:03:41.120 --> 0:03:43.200 kind of bring people in too, you know, set that 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:45.680 edge and make Triubisky beat them from the pocket, and 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:47.240 it really did play out that way. I thought their 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:49.800 offense would be a lot better. But you know, at 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:52.120 the end of the day, that's uh, you know, in 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:54.640 terms of line value, that was the biggest one that 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:56.600 really stuck out to me. And when you go down 0:03:56.600 --> 0:03:58.920 the line, look, division underdog, divisional underdogs in a week 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:01.400 one constantly have a great records, so you know, to me, 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:03.920 that's kind of where everything starts and ends, and when 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:05.960 those lines are very much flipped. Again, we saw this 0:04:06.000 --> 0:04:08.480 with Tennessee, we saw this just about everywhere. Washington just 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:10.720 squeaking in inside the numbers. So the Green Bay one 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:12.640 was the biggest kind of head scratcher to me, and 0:04:13.000 --> 0:04:15.000 just making some of these you know, divisional underdogs that 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:17.120 do so well in week ones, you know, some of 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:21.279 these being very long favorites, like the Vikings in Washington game. 0:04:21.520 --> 0:04:24.760 Yeah, we're going to talk about the differences from this week, 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:27.560 especially because I mean, look, I was preparing for the 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:30.120 show and earlier today, just a few hours ago, I 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:32.720 had sort of the list of what the consensus numbers were, 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:35.919 and they've already moved some of them pretty significantly. So 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:38.320 we're going to talk about each game here, and both 0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:40.000 the spreads and over unders that we're going to be 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:42.400 talking about, we're going to be using the bettingpros dot 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:45.440 Com consensus numbers. Now, that is an aggregation of the 0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:47.520 odds that are available in the market, and as I 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:50.320 mentioned last week, well these numbers are probably what you're 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:53.960 going to find. Generally speaking, there are occasionally pretty significant 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:56.599 differences in the odds available in the market, for example 0:04:56.880 --> 0:04:58.800 with the Bears and the Broncos right now, and some 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:00.920 of this is due to the fact that we're recording 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:03.240 this on Monday night. The Broncos haven't played yet, so 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:05.920 this could move. But you've got Fandle with the Bears 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:08.559 at minus two and a half. Almost every other book 0:05:08.600 --> 0:05:11.160 has them at plus one. So if you look to 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:14.240 maximize your return on investment, make sure to shop around 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:16.159 a bit for the best odds that you can get. 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:18.120 But for now, just know that when I list any 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:22.000 given odds, they're bettingpros dot Com consensus ods. All right, Christian, 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:24.360 let's begin with the Thursday night game. That's the Bucks 0:05:24.400 --> 0:05:27.200 at the Panthers. We've got the Panthers laying six and 0:05:27.240 --> 0:05:29.680 a half points and the over under at fifty. What's 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:30.839 your reaction to those lines. 0:05:31.520 --> 0:05:33.280 Look, when you look at this Tampa team, they are 0:05:33.440 --> 0:05:36.360 you know, they Winston. I really, you know, thought he'd make, 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:39.640 you know, finally take that step forward and you know 0:05:39.839 --> 0:05:42.520 he doesn't have Fitzpatrick, you know, looking over his shoulder, 0:05:42.600 --> 0:05:44.200 and he's not going to be worrying about coming in 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:46.719 and we saw that. It's just he just played like 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.800 there's nobody else behind him, which is usually you know, 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:52.120 a good thing for confidence, and I guess it went 0:05:52.160 --> 0:05:54.520 the other way with him, So I get this reaction. 0:05:54.760 --> 0:05:57.400 I mean when you look at the look aheadlines, this 0:05:57.560 --> 0:06:01.000 was about a minus three for Carolina at home. Look Carolina, 0:06:01.040 --> 0:06:03.560 you know, cross country, they were going to la different 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:05.400 time zone, all that type of stuff came into play 0:06:05.400 --> 0:06:07.240 on week one and they really did hang around with 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:09.040 them depending on the number that you got last time. 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:11.040 But you look at a guy like McCaffrey and I 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:13.720 just I think that his trajectory reminds me so much 0:06:13.720 --> 0:06:16.000 of Levey on Bell and you know, had Leveon Bell 0:06:16.040 --> 0:06:17.520 want an MVP, I think that you could, you know, 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:19.680 really make a case for you know that blueprint to 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:21.680 be followed, it just becomes such a quarterback kind of 0:06:21.760 --> 0:06:24.000 driven league. But to me, this line in total are 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:26.200 set just about where I would make them, again, assuming 0:06:26.320 --> 0:06:28.040 I give Carolina a little bit of a downgrade for 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:30.360 a home field advantage, you know, maybe it's two instead 0:06:30.360 --> 0:06:32.240 of the normal kind of flat three across the board 0:06:32.279 --> 0:06:35.320 that most people will use, you know, just again based 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:37.000 on time all that type of stuff. But I will 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:38.960 say there is a very good trend out there on 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:40.960 you know, home teams playing on Thursday night. And I 0:06:40.960 --> 0:06:43.000 don't know if you can classify Bruce Arians as a 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:45.000 quote unquote rookie head coach, but he is in his 0:06:45.000 --> 0:06:46.600 first year with a new team, and traditionally that is 0:06:46.640 --> 0:06:48.279 a great spot to fade. So I do think this, 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:50.240 you know, maybe there's you know, a half point of value, 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:52.599 a point of value, but I really just see this 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:55.719 one as Carolina kind of you know, continuing to undress Tampa. 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:57.479 And I think that this line is probably right on 0:06:57.560 --> 0:06:58.279 the money. 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:00.200 And how and the total too at fifty. I mean 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:03.040 they last year, one of their games they totaled at seventy, 0:07:03.200 --> 0:07:05.360 you know, so it struck me when I first looked 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:07.599 at it as maybe a little high, but you know, 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:10.240 on second thought, I guess it kind of seems right 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:12.160 at the number. You know, the Bucks offense didn't look 0:07:12.360 --> 0:07:16.160 fantastic on Sunday, and the Panthers, you know, Cam Newton 0:07:16.280 --> 0:07:18.560 was a little rusty going in. They still have a 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:20.880 strong defense. The fifty number initially struck me as a 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:22.760 little too high, but after second thought and kind of 0:07:22.800 --> 0:07:25.440 looking at their history and looking at everything, it probably 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:27.640 struck me right about online. Are you on board there 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:29.120 with the fifty over under? Yeah? 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:30.600 You look at the last time that these two played 0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:33.520 on December second, twenty eighteen, twenty four to seventeen victory, 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:35.400 so that one, you know, did go under that I 0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:37.560 would definitely lean with the under with you there as well. 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:39.600 Look in the beginning of seasons, there's a reason that 0:07:39.600 --> 0:07:41.840 professionals will always go under in the Hall of Fame game, 0:07:41.880 --> 0:07:44.480 and that's because traditionally, to start things off, defenses are 0:07:44.520 --> 0:07:47.680 always ahead of offense. There's it's just schematically, I don't 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:49.360 want to say easier, but it's just a little bit 0:07:49.400 --> 0:07:51.560 you know, different to apply. So I will always lean 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:53.320 towards an under, especially early in the seasons. 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:55.120 All right, let's move on to the next game. We've 0:07:55.120 --> 0:07:57.680 got the Chargers at the Lions. The Chargers are laying 0:07:57.680 --> 0:07:59.800 two and a half points. Now, this was at three 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:01.640 earlier in the day, it's moved to two and a 0:08:01.680 --> 0:08:03.960 half and the over under is set on forty seven, 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:06.640 both these teams coming off overtime games. What are your 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:08.760 thoughts here on Chargers laying two and a half and 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:10.239 the over under at forty seven. 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:12.920 Yeah, a couple things here really struck me out. Number one, 0:08:12.920 --> 0:08:15.200 this is probably going to be the most publicly sided 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:18.000 game of the week, and I would say that majority 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:19.440 of people are going to come out in droves for 0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:21.800 the Chargers laying that short number on the road. And 0:08:21.800 --> 0:08:25.000 again we just said both teams playing, you know, after overtime, 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:27.760 so you know, the Lions did go the full you know, 0:08:27.840 --> 0:08:30.400 extra quarter in the season in the beginning of the season. 0:08:30.400 --> 0:08:31.320 That's usually a detriment. 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:32.880 You could look at a couple of different ways, but 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:34.560 to me, that's what struck me the most about this 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:36.800 one is this is going to be probably the biggest, 0:08:36.840 --> 0:08:39.640 one of the biggest book needs of the afternoon. When 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:41.960 we talk about the Chargers side, again, you saw that 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:45.080 number tick up minus two and a half three some places, 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:47.040 again using our consensus minus two and a half. 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:47.559 And the other thing. 0:08:47.640 --> 0:08:49.800 Public's like two things, favorites and overs because they'd like 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:51.760 to see scores, and the same thing happened. I saw 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:54.080 that total, and my initial reaction was that seems, you know, 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:55.640 very very low when you look at the game last 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:57.160 year that ended thirty three to twenty eight with these 0:08:57.160 --> 0:08:57.640 two teams. 0:08:57.880 --> 0:08:59.760 Yeah, no, that was my reaction too. I mean, I 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:03.000 think that spread was fine. You know, I also completely 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:05.960 agree that I would expect the public to certainly be 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:09.320 backing the Chargers in droves, and they probably have been 0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:11.680 at least somewhat already with the line move. And yeah, 0:09:11.679 --> 0:09:13.480 I agree the over under. It just it struck me 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:15.160 as a little light. I mean, both teams. You know 0:09:15.200 --> 0:09:18.360 that the Lions showed, you know, the Cardinals their defense 0:09:18.400 --> 0:09:20.720 certainly is nothing to write home about. But the Lions 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:24.160 on offense, you know, they have more weapons. TJ. Hockinson 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:26.600 obviously adds a new dimension to that. Danny Amandola right 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:29.920 in the middle, to add to Marvin Jones and Kenny Galladay. 0:09:30.000 --> 0:09:32.120 So I do think that their offense can score points. 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:35.079 And Indianapolis showed yesterday that the Charters defense certainly is 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:38.480 far from infallible. Although they're strong, they're dealing with another 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:41.280 injury at cornerback. So you know, with the two with 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:43.560 the Chargers defense kind of backed up both teams having 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:46.800 offenses at the Lions that are a little bit surprisingly 0:09:47.200 --> 0:09:49.360 good at least if you look at yesterday. I also 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:51.559 agree that I thought the over under struck me as 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:53.680 a little light. But it should be a close game 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:56.400 and I would expect more money to come in on 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:59.559 the Chargers. As you said, let's move to the next game, Colts. 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:02.880 At time Titans, Titans laying three points and the over 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:04.400 under said at forty four. 0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:06.000 What do you think this is a little bit of 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:08.640 an overreaction to me? Was my first statement. Look, this 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:10.240 is kind of you always want to buy low and 0:10:10.240 --> 0:10:12.080 sell high, and I understand the Titans just went in 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:14.200 there and kind of derailed the Browns hype training again, 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:18.240 a divisional underdog situation, a bunch of new pieces specifically 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:20.320 on offense, and you know, the Titans. For everyone out 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:22.080 there that you know hasn't kind of listened to me before, 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:24.040 this is one team that I don't know that I've 0:10:24.080 --> 0:10:25.760 ever backed in my life. I just think that they're 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:28.520 stuck in a different age. You know, this was again 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:30.920 Mike Malarkey, the thunder and Lightning. They wanted to run 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:32.840 the ball, and that's just not how the league is played, 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:35.199 not you know, how the league is won. And so 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:37.079 the Titans are a team until they show me that 0:10:37.120 --> 0:10:40.080 they are shifting, you know, kind of their philosophical mindset. Offensively, 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:41.880 I don't know that I can get behind a ticket 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:43.800 on them very much. But again a great you know, 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:46.640 divisional road spot for them in some nice plus money 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:48.320 last week. You look at the other side of the Colts. 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:51.080 This is another you know, reaction to the Andrew Luck drama. 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:54.000 You know, Brissette, you know, played okay, but this to 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:56.320 me is the ultimate kind of buy low, sell high. 0:10:56.320 --> 0:10:58.240 So definitely kind of lean with the Colts on that 0:10:58.280 --> 0:11:00.880 one and these divisional games, you know, despite the high 0:11:00.920 --> 0:11:03.360 powered nature and theory of kind of what the Colts 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:06.240 offense was supposed to be. You know, let's be very clear, 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:09.439 this is a downgrade from Brissett, you know, our to 0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:12.520 Luck from or from Luck to Berset. And you know, 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:14.959 traditionally coltson and these two teams have played each other 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:17.680 very very tight. They usually kind of split there, and 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:19.600 when you look at this, you know total again last 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:21.400 year was a little bit of a different situation, but 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:23.760 Indianapolis thirty three seventeen, and that was at a time 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:26.280 when Tennessee had kind of gone off the rails. But 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:28.000 to me, I mean Marlon Mack what he is able 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:29.560 to do that, you know, really to kind of take 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:32.000 the pressure off Brissett at only one hundred and ninety yards. 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:34.959 You know, Mariota, somebody I will always dare you to 0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:36.560 beat me and there you know, if you do, I'll 0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:38.040 tip my cap. And that's how we feel about this. 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:39.839 So definitelyan with the road underdog cults here at the 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:42.480 plus three and in the total, definitely lean U slightly 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:43.120 towards the ender. 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:47.120 Yeah, I would think the numbers struck me as roughly correct. 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:49.439 And I don't know about you. I have a really 0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:52.079 tough time with division games, especially early in the season. 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:53.800 I just kind of think, you know, these teams know 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:56.760 each other generally speaking. You mentioned it's a little bit 0:11:56.800 --> 0:11:59.880 different now of course because there's no Andrew Luck coming 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:02.000 in for the Colts, but it's the same system that 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:04.000 they ran last year. It's, you know, two teams with 0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:08.000 relatively good defenses. The over under forty four is pretty 0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:10.800 low for the week, but you know, it strikes me 0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:13.559 as something that's probably going to be right out of curiosity, 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:15.560 and this is a little off topic, but I'm wondering, 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:19.280 do you have any fear of betting on divisional games 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:20.920 like this with teams that know each other so well, 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:22.840 especially earlier in the season, or do you just take 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:23.840 it like it's any other game. 0:12:23.960 --> 0:12:26.920 Well, let's think about this, right, so divisional underdogs again, 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:28.959 I haven't. I didn't go back and do this for 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:31.760 I didn't add in what happened for last week, but 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:34.320 they were seventeen and four last few years against the spread, 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:36.319 and so I will always lean with the trends. I'm 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:38.600 a big trend better. But you know, traditionally what happens 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:41.199 with people, they see a trend once out there, inevitably 0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:42.920 on their first time betting it, it loses, and then 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:44.960 they never touch it again, and all of a sudden 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:47.720 they forget it exists. So it's, you know, again, seventy 0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:49.480 seven percent, you know, and I think that must have 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:52.000 probably went up when you had you think about Washington 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:54.760 covering last week, the Titans obviously winning out right and covering, 0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:56.320 So there's probably a couple more in there, at least, 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:58.720 you know, nineteen and four, so above you know, pretty 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:00.800 much eighty percent in week one. When you look at 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:03.400 week two, you know, I will always, like I said, 0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:06.040 side with the underdogs in division just based on that. 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:09.080 And when you look at this, you know, Redskins, Bills, Giants, Raiders, 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.720 it's a good opportunity here, and so I will always 0:13:11.760 --> 0:13:13.440 kind of lean with those, because, look, we don't know 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:15.760 what these these teams are yet. In week two, we're 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:18.520 going off you know, preconceived notions of the offseason and 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:20.719 pretty much last year's data. It takes three to four 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:22.200 weeks to know what a team is this year versus 0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:24.120 what a team was and what they could be like 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:24.720 like the Browns. 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:28.160 You know, yep, no, absolutely, yeah. For me, I just 0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:30.080 never feel like I have a good, good sense of 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:33.160 it early on this season, So I don't look laying 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:36.480 three essentially saying that it's roughly an even matchup on 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:39.000 a neutral field and a small over under. That strikes 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:40.720 me as about right. Let's move to our next game, 0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:44.440 also divisional game, the Cowboys at the Redskins. Cowboys are 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:46.480 laying four and a half points and the over under 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:48.400 is now forty six. Now when I checked earlier in 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:50.880 the day, it was forty four, so it's moved roughly 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:53.600 two points over. I don't know about you, I kind 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:56.199 of expected the line to be higher here. I expected 0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:58.240 the Cowboys to be laying more points. What about you? 0:13:58.480 --> 0:13:59.760 Yeah, much like that Chargers line. 0:13:59.800 --> 0:14:01.440 I think this is kind of the fishy line of 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:03.280 the week that the public will you know, probably be 0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:06.400 a consensus pick just about everywhere for the Cowboys just 0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:08.360 over that field goal. But again, it's a divisional matchup, 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:10.880 and as Tennessee showed, these can be you know, very 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:15.000 very tricky, especially in the early part of the season. Look, 0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:18.400 I don't necessarily give Washington a full three for that. 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:20.480 And these again, these teams know each other so well. 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:23.640 But the way that you know, Dak playing motivated and 0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:25.880 if he you know, I would dare say maybe this 0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:27.760 line even moves if he you know, does get paid, 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:29.120 And it could go the other way, just because you 0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:31.240 look at the motivation factor for a guy, you know, 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:33.480 to go out there and just you know, make people 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:36.200 be quiet. And look, I am or I was the 0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:39.160 the biggest Dak detractor on the planet. Before he got 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:41.360 a Mari Cooper, I was betting you know, his his 0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:44.200 passing yards props under every single week and returning at 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.000 pretty nice you know, ROI in that department, I just 0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:49.000 did not think you could win with a guy like 0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:49.840 Dak Prescott. 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:52.240 And you know, I've said that before. I've been wrong before. 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:53.600 I'll be rung again when it comes to guys like 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:55.880 Trubisky and Golf, although the jury is kind of out 0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:57.640 on those guys still, and as it is, you know, 0:14:57.760 --> 0:14:59.720 in my opinion, maybe even on Dak despite the big number, 0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.480 he's a to get paid, so it's very low when 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:04.480 you look at you know, a pure power numbers handicapper 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:06.640 is probably going to make this you know, Dallas minus 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:09.880 a you know, seven Road favorite. To me, this Washington 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:13.080 team is kind of you know, held together with you know, 0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:15.760 silly putty and some duct tape and maybe some spit. 0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:17.480 And I really do feel that way, and I think 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:19.440 that the rails can kind of come off here. Of course, 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:21.560 you had the incredible running Davis touchdown here, and maybe 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:23.720 that's kind of fresh in everyone's mind, but next level 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:25.640 thinking is very real, and when something seems too good 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:27.640 to be true in this business that is a very 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:30.680 real situation and not trap lines nothing like that. I 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:32.720 just think that there's something to be you know, when 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:34.120 you look at a line and it's so oft from 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.560 what you have, it probably means oddsmakers are taking into 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:38.600 account something that you're not. And as far as the 0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:41.120 over under, I will always go under in these Cowboys 0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.000 Redskins divisional games, especially in the first half market and 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:45.680 that's just kind of a long, you know, trend play. 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:48.120 The Giants and Cowboys went under I believe like five 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:50.680 maybe six straight prior to this this one as well, 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:52.000 so I'll definitely go with the under there. 0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:54.560 Yeah, this one, really, as I said, stuck out to me. 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:57.000 And again, you know, the only thing is I kind 0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.880 of had that same feeling last week with the Ravens 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:02.400 and the Dolphins, where I said, this line really needs 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:05.680 to be moving much higher and it stuck under seven 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:08.320 at least where I was looking, and that was shocking 0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:10.400 and I went with it. But it was one of 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:12.120 those where I said, I know I must be missing 0:16:12.120 --> 0:16:14.400 something because you know, a line like this is begging 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:16.880 you to take the Ravens. And that's kind of how 0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:18.840 I feel about this one, which is why I'm surprised 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:21.600 it's a low. Again, You're right, there's probably something. I mean, 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:23.640 this is a line that's sort of begging you to 0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:25.920 take the Cowboys, which is why I expected it to 0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:28.120 be higher. But for me, look, I don't want to 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.960 draw too many conclusions from yesterday against the Giants, but 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:33.720 I think with Kellen Moore calling the plays, with you know, 0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:36.720 Zeke back, with a full season from Mamari, with Gallup 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.920 taking that next step, I think that this Cowboys offense 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:44.400 is going to be really, really difficult to stop. The Redskins, Honestly, 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:46.840 impressive is the word that I want to use for them, 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:49.560 as unfair as that is, because they're really not a 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:51.920 very good team, but the fact that they came out 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:54.360 hot against the Eagles, they hung in their all game. 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:56.560 They're now going to be without Darius Guice though for 0:16:56.640 --> 0:16:58.520 at least a couple of weeks. So for me, I'm 0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:01.160 going to be surprised. As much as it's kind of 0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:03.240 seems like a trapline, I'm gonna be surprised. There's got 0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:05.240 to be tons of public money coming in, which also, 0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:08.000 again you know that they know that setting the line 0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:10.359 at this number, that there's gonna be a ton of 0:17:10.400 --> 0:17:12.240 money coming in on the Cowboys, which makes you feel 0:17:12.280 --> 0:17:14.359 like they probably want a lot of money coming in 0:17:14.400 --> 0:17:16.840 on the Cowboys. But to me, the four and a 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:19.639 half points just really stuck out to me as the 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:21.240 one that when I was going through the lines, I 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:23.840 was like, Wow, this is something where I really sort 0:17:23.840 --> 0:17:25.879 of had the projection being much much different. As for 0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:29.480 the overunder, I'm inclined to agree. You know, I think 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:32.160 a forty six where it's at now forty four struck 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:33.960 me as a little light. But at a forty six, 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:36.320 I think that's roughly right. Even though I like the 0:17:36.320 --> 0:17:38.720 Cowboys offense, I do think that in a divisional game 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:40.800 like this where the teams know as a general matter, again, 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:43.400 yesterday Cowboys seem to have no trouble with the Giants, 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:46.080 But in divisional game generally, I think going with the 0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:48.360 under and having a lower over under than you might 0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:51.440 expect probably makes sense. Let's move to our next game, 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:54.440 the Seahawks at the Steelers. Now, this one is interesting 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:58.040 because it was at five, the Steelers laying five, it's 0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:00.399 now the Steelers laying three and a half, and the 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:02.800 over under was it forty seven and now it's at 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:04.920 forty six and a half. Do you think that this 0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:08.200 is a reaction just to how abysmal the Steelers look 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:09.679 last night? Or do you think that this was just 0:18:09.680 --> 0:18:12.359 going to move once we got a little more data regardless. 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:13.760 Yeah, I want to say one more thing about that 0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:14.720 Cowboys Washington game and that. 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:16.360 Oh yeah, sorry, I don't need to cut you off. 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:18.040 No, no, go ahead, you're fine that though. 0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:19.600 You know, one more thing that did stuck, you know, 0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:20.959 stick out to me when you look at this, you know, 0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:22.840 why is this line where it is? Look, the Redskins 0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:24.960 lost to you know, the clear front runner I think 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:27.200 in most people's minds along with Dallas by you know, 0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:29.320 guess what margin five points. I don't want to say 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:31.439 they did that kind of blindly, but the situation and 0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:33.240 you know, I know, Washington at home in this one 0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:35.080 and all that type of stuff, but that does make sense. 0:18:35.119 --> 0:18:36.800 And look, that's a little bit of prime while you 0:18:36.800 --> 0:18:39.359 know what's called basic teaser wong teaser territory at that 0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:41.359 plus four and a half gets you through many different 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:44.280 key numbers up towards you know, above that ten and 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:44.920 a half mark. 0:18:45.000 --> 0:18:46.600 So on Seattle. Same thing. 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:48.159 The first thing that stuck out to me is I 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:51.560 wish that five was available, because I believe Russell Wilson 0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:53.800 has not. I lost maybe one game in his career 0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:55.919 by more than double digits. And anytime I can, you know, 0:18:55.960 --> 0:18:58.119 tease a number up to get that, that is always 0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:00.720 what I'm going to do. And every single time. And 0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:02.240 now that that's gone, look Toy still like it at 0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:04.000 the nine and a half? Sure, I just would have 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:06.320 absolutely loved that eleven teaser leg It was the first 0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:08.440 thing that stuck out to me about that total or 0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:10.200 I'm sorry about that side and the total. 0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:12.040 Why do you think it moved so much out of curiosity? 0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:13.920 I mean that's a that's a fairly significant move a 0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:15.720 point and a half, and you know they just played 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:18.840 last night the Steelers. They looked terrible. The Seahawks didn't 0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:20.960 look that great either. I mean they were favored by 0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:22.800 nine and a half over the Bengals and they barely 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:24.439 squeaked by. So out of care, I mean, what do 0:19:24.440 --> 0:19:26.640 you think is driving that point and a half move? 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:27.000 Yeah? 0:19:27.000 --> 0:19:30.160 Absolutely, Look, this was a National League televised game week 0:19:30.200 --> 0:19:32.159 one where every that's you know, probably one of the 0:19:32.160 --> 0:19:34.040 biggest numbers are going to do for viewers both in 0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:36.720 LAS Vegas sportsbooks or wherever people are watching this game 0:19:36.760 --> 0:19:40.440 for this reason. And so when you you know, primetime games, 0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:43.560 the market over correct or you know over ad just 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:45.720 more than anything else in the world. When you get 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:48.960 beat that badly, it's just so fresh in everyone's mind 0:19:49.000 --> 0:19:51.399 that inherently there's an overreaction. So yeah, if you are 0:19:51.480 --> 0:19:54.280 kind of the you know, value based power numbers type 0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:57.240 of handicapper, you know, maybe there is some inherent value 0:19:57.240 --> 0:19:59.800 with the Steelers to me. Look this Steelers team, I 0:19:59.840 --> 0:20:02.080 think I think there's a narrative. I think that Mike 0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:04.480 Tomlin could be out of a job very quickly, you know, 0:20:04.560 --> 0:20:06.560 quicker than people think. I think he makes a lot 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:08.119 of sense if you want to go into the novelty 0:20:08.160 --> 0:20:10.159 prop market of first coach to be dismissed, if you 0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:13.080 know anywhere still has that up. And look, the Seahawks 0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:15.320 Russell Wilson has been very good to me in his career, 0:20:15.359 --> 0:20:18.399 both in his season win total in specific situations just 0:20:18.560 --> 0:20:20.720 like this one. So while I do think that this 0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:23.120 is something of a bilosl high not again, like you said, 0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:25.439 not that Seattle did anything to kind of you know, 0:20:25.840 --> 0:20:27.399 sell them high on but they did get out of 0:20:27.400 --> 0:20:29.320 town with a victory. And that's, you know, from a 0:20:29.359 --> 0:20:33.200 straight up perspective, all that matters. And so Seattle or Steelers, 0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:35.240 I think the ship could be on fire much quicker. 0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:37.800 You saw Juju limp off as well. I don't know that. 0:20:38.000 --> 0:20:39.600 He's supposed to be okay, by the way, just to 0:20:39.960 --> 0:20:41.960 there was a report today that he's supposed to be fine. 0:20:42.000 --> 0:20:43.880 He is going to play in this game. So that's 0:20:43.880 --> 0:20:45.680 at least one thing that we don't have to worry about. 0:20:45.760 --> 0:20:48.760 Pouncy as well, was another injury. Then we have seen 0:20:48.800 --> 0:20:51.240 this time and time again. When you know Pouncy Brothers 0:20:51.240 --> 0:20:53.240 and what they really do for the makeup, much like 0:20:53.280 --> 0:20:55.760 Frederick for the Cowboys, it's a different unit when he 0:20:55.800 --> 0:20:58.040 is in there versus when he's not. So I understand 0:20:58.119 --> 0:20:59.800 the line move, I you know, and I don't say 0:20:59.840 --> 0:21:02.160 I agree with it, but I completely understand the reasons 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:04.520 for it. Is just that's what the market does because 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:06.520 everyone is going to see what happened last week and 0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:08.200 when they come out and they're going to try to 0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:10.080 hit that you know road underdog at the plus you 0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:11.399 know five all the way down to plus three and 0:21:11.440 --> 0:21:13.560 a half. So I get it, don't necessarily agree with it, 0:21:13.600 --> 0:21:15.720 but I completely understand why odds makers did that. And 0:21:15.760 --> 0:21:18.000 as far as the total, look, I was really shocked 0:21:18.040 --> 0:21:21.080 at this Steelers offense. This Patriots defense has had holes 0:21:21.119 --> 0:21:22.960 in the past. I know they're a revamped unit and 0:21:22.960 --> 0:21:25.879 that offense, you know, is scary without Antonio Brown. But 0:21:25.960 --> 0:21:29.840 to me, you know, the forty seven, what did Antonio 0:21:29.840 --> 0:21:31.680 Brown mean to this team? We will find out now. 0:21:31.720 --> 0:21:33.520 I thought Juju was going to take that next step. 0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:35.119 It was about, you know, just a bad game. I 0:21:35.119 --> 0:21:37.600 completely understand that. But this all depends on if the 0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:39.840 Pittsburgh team can get going. And you saw, you know, 0:21:39.880 --> 0:21:41.879 with Metcalf, this is you know, Russell Wilson's has some 0:21:41.920 --> 0:21:43.760 weapons to play with. Now Tyler Lockett all he does 0:21:43.800 --> 0:21:45.959 is catch touchdown, So definitely lean towards the overs bill 0:21:46.000 --> 0:21:47.560 teams look to get their offenses in flowing. 0:21:47.760 --> 0:21:51.280 Yeah, the number, both numbers struck me as as roughly correct. 0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:55.919 The five that the open was I found to be 0:21:56.080 --> 0:21:59.080 crazy to me. I mean, even before watching the Steelers, 0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:01.160 I just didn't think. I think people, as you sort 0:22:01.200 --> 0:22:05.640 of said, for whatever reason, sportsbooks always seem to underestimate 0:22:05.760 --> 0:22:09.359 Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, So I thought that that 0:22:09.480 --> 0:22:11.600 was way too high. As it moves closer to three, 0:22:11.880 --> 0:22:13.480 I think that that's about correct. I think you put 0:22:13.480 --> 0:22:15.520 these guys in the neutral field. I think it's roughly 0:22:15.800 --> 0:22:17.600 a pick them game. And the over under to me 0:22:17.760 --> 0:22:19.840 forty six and a half forty seven. I think it 0:22:19.920 --> 0:22:23.720 was fine. You know, I imagine that I guess I 0:22:23.760 --> 0:22:25.800 don't know, but I would imagine that most money would 0:22:25.800 --> 0:22:27.399 come in sort of on the under. You suggested that 0:22:27.440 --> 0:22:29.640 you like the over there to me the forty six 0:22:29.640 --> 0:22:31.680 and a half forty seven right around there. I'm sure 0:22:31.720 --> 0:22:33.919 that's where it's going to end up. But to me, 0:22:34.119 --> 0:22:36.439 both these numbers at this point kind of struck me 0:22:36.480 --> 0:22:39.960 as roughly correct. Let's move to your favorite team that 0:22:40.000 --> 0:22:42.719 you were talking about, the Vikings at the Packers. Now 0:22:42.760 --> 0:22:46.119 the Packers are the oddsmakers have adjusted, the Packers are 0:22:46.160 --> 0:22:48.640 favored just by three, and the over under is at 0:22:48.640 --> 0:22:50.600 forty four and a half. That has dropped a bit 0:22:51.000 --> 0:22:54.040 since earlier today it was at forty six, So the 0:22:54.080 --> 0:22:56.720 numbers dropped by about a point and a half. Again, 0:22:56.760 --> 0:22:59.200 Packers at three forty four and a half over under. 0:22:59.200 --> 0:23:01.639 The Vikings at the Packers, what's your reaction to that. 0:23:01.800 --> 0:23:03.680 My reaction was, the Vikings are probably going to be 0:23:03.760 --> 0:23:06.520 one of the biggest public underdogs of the week because 0:23:06.560 --> 0:23:09.720 everyone just saw how they dismantled an Atlanta team out there, 0:23:09.760 --> 0:23:12.520 and so look, the Packers looked great. They did well 0:23:12.520 --> 0:23:15.119 to say they've looked great, I think that defensively they 0:23:15.160 --> 0:23:17.639 looked amazing. That being said, as I said in the beginning, 0:23:17.720 --> 0:23:20.399 I think that they built their team to stop the 0:23:20.440 --> 0:23:25.000 Bears and the Minnesota is here is a cheat sheet 0:23:25.040 --> 0:23:26.919 on how I will bet against Minnesota or bet on 0:23:26.960 --> 0:23:29.520 Minnesota if they are playing a team that finished the 0:23:29.600 --> 0:23:32.320 year above five hundred the previous year. I Am going 0:23:32.359 --> 0:23:34.920 to bet against them and do it every single time. 0:23:34.960 --> 0:23:38.040 And conversely, nobody beats bad teams like Kirk Cousins. Now, 0:23:38.080 --> 0:23:41.720 this one gets a little bit tricky because I don't 0:23:41.760 --> 0:23:43.919 think this is the same Green Bay Packers team. I 0:23:44.000 --> 0:23:46.399 really don't. But yet they finished the year, you know, 0:23:46.520 --> 0:23:48.880 under five hundred last year. And that stat of Kirk 0:23:48.880 --> 0:23:51.040 Cousins is absolutely incredible. 0:23:51.080 --> 0:23:51.520 I'm trying. 0:23:51.520 --> 0:23:54.200 I'm gonna pull it up right now. He is basically 0:23:54.200 --> 0:23:57.639 about sixteen percent against the spread throughout his career against 0:23:57.680 --> 0:24:01.399 a team that finished whether he over five hundred record 0:24:01.440 --> 0:24:03.119 the year prior. So this one's a little bit of 0:24:03.160 --> 0:24:05.879 an anomaly. I think that the crowds are going to 0:24:05.920 --> 0:24:08.840 come and you know, look too back what they just 0:24:08.880 --> 0:24:12.440 saw again Week two is over reaction week and so 0:24:12.880 --> 0:24:15.200 it's a you gotta be very much aware of it. Again, 0:24:15.280 --> 0:24:18.240 a divisional, you know, opponent, I usually do like to 0:24:18.320 --> 0:24:20.080 lean towards the underdog, and as I said this, but 0:24:20.240 --> 0:24:22.320 this number at the plus three that we are looking 0:24:22.359 --> 0:24:25.879 at is something it's basically, you know, I don't want 0:24:25.920 --> 0:24:27.199 say it's to pick them because it is a key 0:24:27.280 --> 0:24:28.679 number and it can kind of come off of that, 0:24:28.760 --> 0:24:31.199 but it's it's absolutely crazy. And look, cousins, you know 0:24:31.280 --> 0:24:33.760 record verse winning teams is five and twenty five, and 0:24:33.840 --> 0:24:36.800 that is absolutely incredible. So in twenty eighteen, last year 0:24:36.840 --> 0:24:39.760 went one and six, road record thirteen and twenty three. 0:24:39.840 --> 0:24:41.880 These are just too many things to me to look 0:24:41.920 --> 0:24:44.160 to look at that divisional trend. So I would take 0:24:44.200 --> 0:24:46.600 three points here and avoid that you know, gross stinky 0:24:46.640 --> 0:24:49.520 public underdog on the road, and look, totals, you're always 0:24:49.520 --> 0:24:50.960 going to get me to take a lean towards that 0:24:51.040 --> 0:24:53.000 under on a divisional game. I do think that total 0:24:53.080 --> 0:24:55.040 is probably pretty much right on the money and just 0:24:55.080 --> 0:24:56.479 where about where I made it. 0:24:56.560 --> 0:24:58.760 So if you were gonna make the spread for this game, 0:24:58.800 --> 0:25:01.239 would you have it? What Packer laying five or what? 0:25:01.560 --> 0:25:03.320 Yeah, I would put it right in what's called the 0:25:03.320 --> 0:25:06.119 dead zone. If I was an odds maker, I would this. 0:25:06.320 --> 0:25:08.440 You know, this game is really, like I just said, 0:25:08.480 --> 0:25:10.560 I don't exactly know what to do with it from 0:25:10.560 --> 0:25:13.480 a point spread perspective, because I just don't know about 0:25:13.520 --> 0:25:15.840 this Packers team yet, and that offense look bad, and 0:25:15.840 --> 0:25:18.679 look that Vikings offense looks great. Yet Cousins will you know, 0:25:18.880 --> 0:25:20.520 it's almost as if they've figured it out. They only 0:25:20.600 --> 0:25:22.320 let Cousins throw the ball I believe ten times last 0:25:22.320 --> 0:25:24.639 week and just had Dalvin Cook go wild. The Packers 0:25:24.640 --> 0:25:26.000 you're not going to be able to do that. All 0:25:26.000 --> 0:25:28.520 they are going to do is set that edge, contain 0:25:28.600 --> 0:25:30.960 Dalvin Cook and make Cousins, you know, beat them. And 0:25:31.000 --> 0:25:32.399 when you have a four to two safety and what 0:25:32.400 --> 0:25:34.119 I believe is the second fastest in the defense in 0:25:34.160 --> 0:25:36.240 the NFL, I put this in the dead zone and I, 0:25:36.359 --> 0:25:38.080 you know, really make you pay a premium if you 0:25:38.119 --> 0:25:40.520 want to back the Packers and find out and I 0:25:40.560 --> 0:25:42.080 think that would probably make a lot of people pass 0:25:42.119 --> 0:25:45.199 because traditionally fours and fives quote unquote dead numbers. But 0:25:45.240 --> 0:25:47.520 that's really what I would make that number right around 0:25:47.520 --> 0:25:49.320 that four four and a half to five point mark. 0:25:49.640 --> 0:25:51.520 All right, great, Well, before we move on, I do 0:25:51.560 --> 0:25:53.800 want to tell everyone about the sponsor of today's show, 0:25:53.840 --> 0:25:57.560 bet MGM. 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The Bills are laying one and a half 0:27:37.680 --> 0:27:39.639 and the over under a set at forty three and 0:27:39.640 --> 0:27:40.840 a half. What's your reaction here? 0:27:41.160 --> 0:27:43.399 I was really looking forward to what this line would be. 0:27:43.640 --> 0:27:46.600 And that is for you know, one reason, there is 0:27:46.640 --> 0:27:48.280 a you know what if I told you that this 0:27:48.359 --> 0:27:52.359 situation presents at something rather unique in the marketplace where 0:27:52.560 --> 0:27:55.560 one of these teams is you know, six point sixty 0:27:55.600 --> 0:27:58.000 seven percent against the spread in the spot that they're in, 0:27:58.119 --> 0:27:59.760 you know what that trend is when it comes to 0:27:59.800 --> 0:28:04.280 this scheduling statistic for the in this case the Buffalo Bills. 0:28:04.040 --> 0:28:05.040 I do not what is it. 0:28:05.240 --> 0:28:07.679 Teams on back to back road games to start the 0:28:07.720 --> 0:28:11.480 season are one in fourteen against the numbers since twenty fifteen. 0:28:12.119 --> 0:28:13.480 And look, these. 0:28:13.440 --> 0:28:16.800 Usually aren't big numbers, so sometimes you can sneak in there, 0:28:16.800 --> 0:28:19.360 but usually these spots are really all about. 0:28:19.080 --> 0:28:20.439 You know, winning or losing. 0:28:20.480 --> 0:28:23.160 I think the Bills just came back in fashion and 0:28:23.200 --> 0:28:25.520 the public is going to see that as well. And 0:28:25.600 --> 0:28:30.000 this is a gross home underdog Bills non conference road game. 0:28:30.040 --> 0:28:33.200 These are all situations of look ahead spots after divisional 0:28:33.280 --> 0:28:35.639 game A hard fought one and by the way, the 0:28:35.640 --> 0:28:37.720 Colts are also in that discussion as well at the 0:28:37.720 --> 0:28:39.920 plus three against the Titans. But to me, this is 0:28:39.960 --> 0:28:43.040 the gross underdog nobody wants to take. And somehow we 0:28:43.120 --> 0:28:45.360 don't understand how the Bills beat the Jets and they 0:28:45.440 --> 0:28:47.720 just looked ahead to the next week. But this is 0:28:47.760 --> 0:28:50.240 a pretty good scheduling spot at least for the Giants, 0:28:50.320 --> 0:28:52.800 just to win the game at home against a Buffalo 0:28:52.880 --> 0:28:55.680 team that is still going through the motions here and again, 0:28:55.760 --> 0:28:58.160 when you talk about this total, you look at the 0:28:58.160 --> 0:29:00.680 Bills putting up just seventeen points last week, you look 0:29:00.680 --> 0:29:03.200 at the Giants putting up seventeen. That forty two number 0:29:03.280 --> 0:29:05.680 is very very low, begging people to take that over 0:29:05.760 --> 0:29:07.880 and maybe somebody gets it going. There is just not 0:29:08.080 --> 0:29:10.400 a lot of weapons on the field for these two teams, 0:29:10.440 --> 0:29:11.800 so I would have to go under there as long 0:29:11.840 --> 0:29:13.160 as you're over that key number. 0:29:13.360 --> 0:29:15.040 And what do you think about the one and a half? Then, 0:29:15.040 --> 0:29:16.520 I mean, what would you have said it at if 0:29:16.560 --> 0:29:18.080 you could make the line the Bills are right now 0:29:18.160 --> 0:29:19.760 laying one and a half, would you have then made 0:29:19.760 --> 0:29:20.760 it more of a pickum or. 0:29:20.760 --> 0:29:25.320 What if they Because I know the data behind that trend, 0:29:25.320 --> 0:29:27.000 and I think that it's you know, it depends what 0:29:27.040 --> 0:29:29.400 you put stock into. To me, I weigh that heavily 0:29:29.440 --> 0:29:31.360 when I go through my process and everything like that. 0:29:31.400 --> 0:29:33.520 So I may have a completely different number, but I 0:29:33.560 --> 0:29:35.600 would probably knowing what I know about you know how 0:29:35.640 --> 0:29:38.920 successful Again, that's what ninety four percent, you know, And 0:29:39.160 --> 0:29:41.080 in week two for those you know four teams that 0:29:41.120 --> 0:29:43.240 I just talked about, in this situation, I'm going to 0:29:43.320 --> 0:29:46.239 make you know, if you're a quote unquote sharp out there, 0:29:46.240 --> 0:29:47.600 I'm going to make you pay at tax for it, 0:29:47.600 --> 0:29:49.400 and I'm going to beg people to take the take the 0:29:49.800 --> 0:29:52.760 bills in that situation. So I would maybe I would go, 0:29:52.880 --> 0:29:55.280 you know, maybe even giants minus three make people scratch 0:29:55.320 --> 0:29:55.600 their head. 0:29:55.600 --> 0:29:56.400 I'd go four and a half. 0:29:56.400 --> 0:29:59.920 One's different just because I I'm sorry the uh yeah, giants. 0:30:00.000 --> 0:30:02.360 I would go giants minus three and make people, you know, 0:30:02.440 --> 0:30:04.240 dare people to take the bills in this dead that 0:30:04.520 --> 0:30:05.560 scheduling spot form. 0:30:05.720 --> 0:30:07.920 Wow interesting that there is one thing to note in 0:30:07.960 --> 0:30:10.040 that although it is back to back road games, it's 0:30:10.040 --> 0:30:12.680 in the same spot. They just faced the Jets and 0:30:12.680 --> 0:30:14.800 now they're facing the Giants. So it's the same stadium. 0:30:14.840 --> 0:30:16.920 I don't know if they stayed I would although I mean, 0:30:16.960 --> 0:30:19.240 I guess Buffalo's not too far, but I mean I 0:30:19.280 --> 0:30:21.080 wonder whether or not that's going to have any impact. 0:30:21.080 --> 0:30:22.880 But it's a great stat that you gave as for 0:30:22.960 --> 0:30:25.040 where I would see it going. I think it's probably 0:30:25.080 --> 0:30:27.160 going to stick right around here. I think, you know, 0:30:27.280 --> 0:30:30.440 they basically it's going to be about a point. If 0:30:30.480 --> 0:30:33.160 the Giants wound up being favored, I'm you know, certainly 0:30:33.240 --> 0:30:35.600 there would be a different way of betting. But for now, 0:30:35.680 --> 0:30:37.320 I think the Bills laying one and a half the 0:30:37.320 --> 0:30:38.840 over under at forty three and a half, I think 0:30:38.840 --> 0:30:40.680 that that's roughly where it's going to end up. 0:30:41.080 --> 0:30:42.560 Can I ask you one question about that though? 0:30:43.160 --> 0:30:45.120 Yeah, when it's under that too, mark, or let's say 0:30:45.160 --> 0:30:47.480 under two and a half, I think, you know, this 0:30:47.520 --> 0:30:49.880 is where I really, you know, really really differ on 0:30:49.920 --> 0:30:52.640 my opinion from a lot of professionals. I don't know 0:30:52.760 --> 0:30:55.240 that I, to be honest with you, care a ton. 0:30:55.400 --> 0:30:57.440 It wouldn't change my opinion on how I bet the game. 0:30:57.480 --> 0:30:59.840 If it was you know, Bills minus one in an 0:30:59.880 --> 0:31:01.320 hour half or if it was Giants one and a 0:31:01.360 --> 0:31:03.200 half or even up to that, you know two mark 0:31:03.240 --> 0:31:05.680 anything below that number to just win. Do you do 0:31:05.720 --> 0:31:07.800 you really, you know, would that change your opinion if 0:31:07.800 --> 0:31:10.320 it was flipped and inherently taking those quote unquote three 0:31:10.360 --> 0:31:11.080 points of value. 0:31:11.240 --> 0:31:13.200 If you gave me the giants lang. 0:31:13.000 --> 0:31:15.640 Three No, no, no, instead of giants, instead of giants, it 0:31:15.760 --> 0:31:17.360 was instead of giants plus one and a half, it 0:31:17.400 --> 0:31:19.000 was giants minus one and a half, and instead of 0:31:19.040 --> 0:31:20.480 bills minus one and a half was plus one and 0:31:20.520 --> 0:31:20.880 a half. 0:31:21.080 --> 0:31:23.040 No, No, I mean I think your point, you know, 0:31:23.080 --> 0:31:25.640 for me personally, No, I mean, I don't think that 0:31:25.680 --> 0:31:29.560 really makes a difference. I mean anything under probably under 0:31:29.560 --> 0:31:32.440 two really when you're below you know three at that point, 0:31:32.440 --> 0:31:34.760 if you're just talking about whatever the bet is, I 0:31:34.760 --> 0:31:36.600 don't really think it makes that much of a difference. 0:31:36.640 --> 0:31:38.520 But certainly if you moved it from one and a 0:31:38.560 --> 0:31:40.920 half to the giants one and a half. No, I mean, 0:31:41.080 --> 0:31:42.640 if you like the bills, you like the bills at 0:31:42.640 --> 0:31:44.200 that point. If you like the giants, you like the giants. 0:31:44.240 --> 0:31:46.160 So for me, I agree with you there. If that's 0:31:46.160 --> 0:31:48.480 what the point was, certainly not it wouldn't make a 0:31:48.520 --> 0:31:50.360 difference in how I would approach the game. But I mean, 0:31:50.400 --> 0:31:52.800 I think the public probably does, right, I mean the 0:31:52.840 --> 0:31:55.840 public probably When you move lines like that, I imagine 0:31:55.840 --> 0:31:58.800 that their perception of the game changes dramatically, wouldn't you think? 0:31:58.920 --> 0:32:02.520 Yeah? And look, gambling psychologueal psychology is something I've been 0:32:02.520 --> 0:32:05.240 fascinated for so long. And as soon as you put 0:32:05.240 --> 0:32:07.360 a minus next to a team and a plus next 0:32:07.360 --> 0:32:10.360 to a team, people instantly feel a certain way and oh, 0:32:10.440 --> 0:32:12.720 how how can the Bills be favored? Or how can 0:32:12.880 --> 0:32:16.040 Team X be favored? And in reality you're talking about 0:32:16.040 --> 0:32:19.280 maybe three cents between a you know, minus one ten 0:32:19.440 --> 0:32:21.560 no pickum game and minus one and a half minus 0:32:21.600 --> 0:32:23.520 one thirteen or plus one and a half minus one 0:32:23.600 --> 0:32:26.120 oh six. So I just think people kind of almost 0:32:26.120 --> 0:32:28.720 psyche themselves out too much just because of what you know, 0:32:28.800 --> 0:32:30.800 plus or minus sign is next to that number, when 0:32:30.840 --> 0:32:33.800 in reality those type of things don't genuinely come into play, 0:32:33.880 --> 0:32:34.840 you know, too too often. 0:32:35.200 --> 0:32:37.680 Yep, I think that's a good point. Next game, Jaguars 0:32:37.760 --> 0:32:40.400 at the Texans. Texans are playing right now, so things 0:32:40.440 --> 0:32:42.600 can change here. But the odds are the Texans are 0:32:42.640 --> 0:32:45.040 laying nine and a half points and the over under 0:32:45.160 --> 0:32:49.120 is fifty two and a half out of curiosity. Absent 0:32:49.160 --> 0:32:51.920 a major offensive line injury or an injury to Watson 0:32:51.960 --> 0:32:55.040 tonight while they're playing, would you expect anything really moving 0:32:55.080 --> 0:32:57.320 this line significantly or do you think roughly nine and 0:32:57.360 --> 0:32:59.640 a half and under fifty over under fifty two and 0:32:59.680 --> 0:33:00.680 a half is where we end up. 0:33:00.760 --> 0:33:02.320 It's going to be where we end up. This is 0:33:02.440 --> 0:33:05.040 obviously changed so much when you go from fulls to 0:33:05.160 --> 0:33:08.600 Gardner Minshaw. But look, I think that this is that's 0:33:08.640 --> 0:33:10.640 going to be the story with this Jags team, and 0:33:10.840 --> 0:33:14.360 you know kind of how he progresses. Look, there's always 0:33:14.400 --> 0:33:16.520 a rookie quarterback. There's always somebody that comes out, and 0:33:16.560 --> 0:33:18.760 a narrative never plays out exactly how you thought, and 0:33:19.040 --> 0:33:21.200 these stories happen and you get to try to spot those, 0:33:21.800 --> 0:33:24.480 you know, trends in the market or inefficiencies before the 0:33:24.520 --> 0:33:27.040 market catches up here. And look the you know, odds 0:33:27.040 --> 0:33:29.040 makers have no idea what to do with a you know, 0:33:29.120 --> 0:33:31.600 what is Minshaw worth to a spread? You know, they 0:33:31.600 --> 0:33:33.160 didn't know what to do when Tom Brady came into 0:33:33.160 --> 0:33:34.920 the league. What is he worth to a spread? Nobody 0:33:34.960 --> 0:33:36.920 knows these things until they have data to kind of 0:33:36.960 --> 0:33:39.200 show it. I mean, you could you can't even quantify it, 0:33:39.200 --> 0:33:40.440 you know, preseason. I know, I got a lot to 0:33:40.480 --> 0:33:42.320 run all that type of stuff here, but this line 0:33:42.520 --> 0:33:45.120 probably does not move. Look, the narrative is already written 0:33:45.120 --> 0:33:48.520 for Jacksonville. Oddsmakers have shown that if the Texans get 0:33:48.520 --> 0:33:51.280 blown out or if they you know, pull the upright outset, 0:33:51.280 --> 0:33:53.520 which I do think they are a live underdog in 0:33:53.560 --> 0:33:55.560 that spot this week, you know, maybe it gets over. 0:33:55.640 --> 0:33:57.520 You know, maybe it just goes bananas, just like the 0:33:57.920 --> 0:34:00.920 Dolphins and Patriots land line. But I really don't see 0:34:01.080 --> 0:34:02.520 much of a move. I mean, you'd have to be 0:34:02.560 --> 0:34:05.160 talking about twenty plus point victory for this line to 0:34:05.200 --> 0:34:07.240 get over that key number of ten before professionals would 0:34:07.280 --> 0:34:09.400 undoubtedly buy back on a divisional underdog. 0:34:09.520 --> 0:34:11.759 Yeah. I mean, I think basically you've nailed it in 0:34:11.800 --> 0:34:14.400 that it's really tough to handicap this game because you 0:34:14.520 --> 0:34:16.239 just don't know what it's going to look like now 0:34:16.280 --> 0:34:18.000 with the Foles injury. So I think nine and a 0:34:18.040 --> 0:34:20.480 half over under fifty two and a half absent something 0:34:20.560 --> 0:34:23.160 dramatic tonight is probably where we're going to end up. 0:34:23.200 --> 0:34:25.799 Let's move on to the Cardinals at the Ravens. We've 0:34:25.800 --> 0:34:28.959 got the Ravens lanth thirteen points and the over under 0:34:29.000 --> 0:34:31.640 set at forty six. That's moved a bit. I've checked 0:34:31.680 --> 0:34:34.080 earlier today it was at forty four, so it's moved 0:34:34.120 --> 0:34:37.120 up two points. What are your reaction to Ravens lank 0:34:37.200 --> 0:34:39.960 thirteen over under forty six against the Cardinals. 0:34:40.080 --> 0:34:44.279 My reaction was that total is l ow low. I 0:34:44.520 --> 0:34:46.439 get it in a way because look, you were talking 0:34:46.520 --> 0:34:48.680 about you know, Kingsbury famously saying that was three of 0:34:48.719 --> 0:34:50.919 the worst offensive, you know, three quarters of the worst 0:34:50.960 --> 0:34:53.360 offense I've ever seen. You look at that fourth quarter 0:34:53.400 --> 0:34:55.360 and look, Kyler Murray's going to have growing pains. But 0:34:55.360 --> 0:34:56.840 look at the end of the day twenty nine for 0:34:56.880 --> 0:34:59.279 fifty fourth three h eight and two. You know, I 0:34:59.520 --> 0:35:02.319 was The Ravens are such a fascinating case study to 0:35:02.360 --> 0:35:05.520 me in so many different ways because what they did 0:35:05.600 --> 0:35:08.000 is reinvent their whole philosophy. How long have there evens 0:35:08.000 --> 0:35:11.760 been run first, defense first, and you know all this stuff. 0:35:11.800 --> 0:35:13.360 Now all of a sudden they're playing the madd and 0:35:13.400 --> 0:35:15.520 O seven running gun with you know, Michael vic two 0:35:15.520 --> 0:35:17.799 point zero over there, and nobody knows what to come. 0:35:17.840 --> 0:35:20.040 That's why I love, you know, in some ways it's 0:35:20.120 --> 0:35:23.239 very difficult. But from a you know, fan perspective, from 0:35:23.239 --> 0:35:25.759 a handicapper perspective, some games you have to sit back 0:35:25.760 --> 0:35:28.600 and watch and build your opinion on. In some games 0:35:28.640 --> 0:35:30.640 you could spot in an efficiency. I believe that the 0:35:30.680 --> 0:35:33.640 Packers in you know, last week wasn't inefficiency not knowing 0:35:34.280 --> 0:35:36.839 you know, what that offense would look like. This is look, 0:35:36.920 --> 0:35:39.759 without a doubt, the side total or the side side 0:35:39.760 --> 0:35:42.520 of this is this is a complete overreaction. If you're 0:35:42.560 --> 0:35:44.719 a value guy, you are going to take you know, 0:35:44.840 --> 0:35:47.000 any any professional tell you always, you know, take ten 0:35:47.040 --> 0:35:49.200 points or more just about any time in the NFL. 0:35:49.239 --> 0:35:53.080 And this is, you know, value wise, this is a 0:35:53.200 --> 0:35:55.560 over reaction we do. And look, I think there's a 0:35:55.560 --> 0:35:58.319 real situation that Miami was just that bad and this 0:35:58.400 --> 0:36:01.000 Ravens team is you can't look that good every week. 0:36:01.040 --> 0:36:03.000 I don't think the Ravens are the Kansas City Chiefs 0:36:03.040 --> 0:36:04.759 of a year ago, although the league is changing, but 0:36:04.840 --> 0:36:07.879 that over I'm I would definitely that was my first 0:36:07.920 --> 0:36:10.319 one is that seems very low for what Kyler Murray 0:36:10.360 --> 0:36:12.160 was able to show. And look, the difference was Kyler 0:36:12.200 --> 0:36:14.480 Murray was able to run his you know, his style, 0:36:14.520 --> 0:36:16.480 he ran up tempo, no huddles. Well, that's what he 0:36:16.480 --> 0:36:19.640 did at Oklahoma shotgun. And so if things do pan 0:36:19.680 --> 0:36:22.760 out for the Ravens, this one could be fireworks of plenty. 0:36:23.000 --> 0:36:24.880 And do you think the thirteen number is right or 0:36:24.880 --> 0:36:27.439 do you think that that should be significantly lower? Sounds 0:36:27.480 --> 0:36:29.880 like you feel like the either the sports books or 0:36:29.920 --> 0:36:31.719 the market generally has been overreacting a bit. 0:36:31.920 --> 0:36:34.320 Yeah, and again week two overreaction week I would probably 0:36:34.360 --> 0:36:36.880 make this one if even I want to kind of 0:36:36.960 --> 0:36:40.719 I mean, the look aheadline I believe was like it's 0:36:40.800 --> 0:36:42.799 vastly different. Let's just say that I think it's maybe 0:36:42.840 --> 0:36:45.480 even five or six points difference. And so if you 0:36:45.920 --> 0:36:47.960 are a value based guy, that's you know what you're 0:36:47.960 --> 0:36:48.399 going to take. 0:36:48.560 --> 0:36:49.120 Make me pick. 0:36:49.160 --> 0:36:52.360 I would definitely look towards that underdog, just because you know, 0:36:52.640 --> 0:36:54.759 bet team or bet numbers not teams right, and kind 0:36:54.760 --> 0:36:56.680 of ignore what you saw in Bilosa High all that 0:36:56.719 --> 0:36:58.480 type of stuff. I probably make this one based on 0:36:58.520 --> 0:37:00.560 what I seen, which again is still probably a little 0:37:00.560 --> 0:37:03.560 bit of an overreaction, maybe eight and a half nine. 0:37:03.600 --> 0:37:06.640 And again, I'm not a value based handicapper. I don't 0:37:06.640 --> 0:37:08.839 take points just to take points. In this league where 0:37:08.840 --> 0:37:11.080 the spread is mattering less and less every single week, 0:37:11.160 --> 0:37:13.680 So maybe you know, throw them a little teaser, maybe 0:37:13.680 --> 0:37:15.640 get down to that look ahead number something like that. 0:37:15.680 --> 0:37:17.360 But I would make this one much closer to what 0:37:17.400 --> 0:37:19.080 I see for the Jaguars and the Texans, or even 0:37:19.080 --> 0:37:19.759 a little bit less. 0:37:19.920 --> 0:37:22.239 Yeah, it struck me as high. It really did. I 0:37:22.440 --> 0:37:24.400 don't necessarily think it's going to move anywhere, because I 0:37:24.440 --> 0:37:27.200 think people are, you know, as much as people might 0:37:27.480 --> 0:37:29.160 like you know, Murray and be excited by him, I 0:37:29.160 --> 0:37:30.880 think what the Ravens data is just going to be 0:37:30.920 --> 0:37:33.440 fresh in the public's mind. So it struck me as high. 0:37:33.440 --> 0:37:36.560 I would have thought it was probably closer to you know, 0:37:37.360 --> 0:37:39.759 the ten mark one way or another. So thirteen struck 0:37:39.800 --> 0:37:41.319 me as high. But I don't expect it to move 0:37:41.640 --> 0:37:44.480 all that much going forward. Forty nine ers at the Bengals. 0:37:44.600 --> 0:37:47.239 Forty nine ers are now plus half a point. They 0:37:47.239 --> 0:37:51.040 were at minus one when I checked earlier today. I 0:37:51.080 --> 0:37:53.040 don't know if that is the Tevin Coleman injury or 0:37:53.040 --> 0:37:56.319 what the over under is now at forty five. Joe 0:37:56.360 --> 0:37:58.080 Mixon also may miss the game, but he has a 0:37:58.160 --> 0:38:00.800 chance to sit up so right now because Census odds 0:38:00.800 --> 0:38:02.520 are forty nine ers plus half a point in the 0:38:02.520 --> 0:38:03.640 over under at forty five. 0:38:03.640 --> 0:38:06.600 What do you think, same situation. I can't really waiver 0:38:06.680 --> 0:38:08.360 from the from us. You know, something that's been so 0:38:09.080 --> 0:38:11.720 successful for me, forty nine ers back to back road games, 0:38:11.760 --> 0:38:13.840 and you know, the numbers tell me I have to 0:38:13.840 --> 0:38:15.600 take the other side no matter what the number was. 0:38:15.760 --> 0:38:17.440 Do I wish the Bengals were catching you know, a 0:38:17.440 --> 0:38:19.920 three spot here three and a half? Absolutely, but look, 0:38:19.960 --> 0:38:22.640 Cincinnati looked very good in a spot where many people 0:38:22.680 --> 0:38:25.160 picked them to kind of you know, challenge the Dolphins 0:38:25.160 --> 0:38:28.080 to have the worst record, especially without aj Green, and 0:38:28.239 --> 0:38:30.200 you know, and the first quarter they're winning, you know, 0:38:30.400 --> 0:38:32.520 they're up at half. They just dropped it in the 0:38:32.560 --> 0:38:35.560 fourth quarter and that could certainly happen. You know, this 0:38:35.640 --> 0:38:37.760 Seahawks team, you know, when you look at to compare 0:38:37.800 --> 0:38:40.040 to the Bengals and kind of, you know, give them 0:38:40.040 --> 0:38:42.640 that measuring stick task. I think Seattle's you know, I 0:38:42.680 --> 0:38:44.520 thought was a lot better than them, and maybe that 0:38:44.719 --> 0:38:47.359 was you know, that was a tough spot for Cincinnati again, 0:38:47.400 --> 0:38:49.359 a non conference road game to open up the year. 0:38:49.480 --> 0:38:51.520 All those type of things that are coming into play here. 0:38:51.560 --> 0:38:54.080 So look, I got to take the number regardless of 0:38:54.080 --> 0:38:55.799 what it is in terms of the value. And when 0:38:55.800 --> 0:38:58.319 you talk about you know, Cincinnati did a pretty good 0:38:58.400 --> 0:39:01.160 job limiting that offense, and you can't really say that 0:39:01.200 --> 0:39:04.040 a lot about the Cincinnati defense usually. But to me, 0:39:04.680 --> 0:39:06.879 that forty five a little bit short. I just think 0:39:06.920 --> 0:39:09.839 that there's a narrative here that Garoppolo I don't know 0:39:09.840 --> 0:39:12.319 that he can be this bad. I really do believe that. 0:39:12.320 --> 0:39:13.839 And look, all the guy does is win when he's 0:39:13.880 --> 0:39:15.920 healthy and he's in there. But to me, he just 0:39:16.560 --> 0:39:18.759 don't rust all that type of stuff. Compounded with I 0:39:18.800 --> 0:39:20.239 think he was just getting back into the flow. And 0:39:20.280 --> 0:39:22.719 again all he does is also lose weapons around him. Right, 0:39:22.760 --> 0:39:24.600 So look at Dalton. I mean foury eighteen and two 0:39:24.640 --> 0:39:26.960 without an AJ Green and the San Francisco team had 0:39:27.000 --> 0:39:30.080 two interceptions all of last year, already surpassed that turnover 0:39:30.080 --> 0:39:32.920 differential comes around, but not to the point of, you know, 0:39:33.000 --> 0:39:35.480 tripling it in the first two weeks. So while Dalton's 0:39:35.520 --> 0:39:37.040 been known to throw an interception or two, I think 0:39:37.040 --> 0:39:38.719 this one does go over the total, and I think 0:39:38.760 --> 0:39:40.680 Garoppolo is going to be the key to that. But 0:39:40.719 --> 0:39:41.960 I do think he gets it going at least a 0:39:41.960 --> 0:39:43.080 little bit to get over that number. 0:39:43.160 --> 0:39:44.560 All right, let's move on to one of the more 0:39:44.600 --> 0:39:47.480 fascinating lines of the week, The Patriots at the Dolphins. 0:39:47.600 --> 0:39:52.120 The Patriots are at at this point, they're at minus 0:39:52.200 --> 0:39:54.920 seventeen and a half. It has been moving all day 0:39:54.960 --> 0:39:57.359 towards the Patriots. The over under a set at forty seven. 0:39:57.400 --> 0:39:58.960 I mean, you've been doing this for a long time. 0:39:59.000 --> 0:40:01.280 When's the last time you've seen they've spread this high 0:40:01.400 --> 0:40:03.600 for a road favorite? Because I can't remember it. 0:40:04.000 --> 0:40:05.720 Ooh, put me on the spot. 0:40:05.800 --> 0:40:08.600 That is a no, no, I'm not asking, it's all right, 0:40:08.640 --> 0:40:09.840 no no, But I mean, what do you think of 0:40:09.840 --> 0:40:11.840 this seventeen and a half? The Dolphins looked at bismol. 0:40:11.880 --> 0:40:13.920 The Pats looked as good as they ever have their 0:40:13.920 --> 0:40:15.520 getting brown back. I mean, what do you think of 0:40:15.560 --> 0:40:16.120 this line? 0:40:16.280 --> 0:40:18.160 I would say, first, well, I think it was probably 0:40:18.200 --> 0:40:20.640 the undefeated year. Whenever they played the Jets for the 0:40:20.680 --> 0:40:22.680 second time late in the year. Would probably my guess 0:40:22.719 --> 0:40:24.880 is to when that that second time was maybe Buffalo. 0:40:25.000 --> 0:40:28.200 But this look, again, it depends on your philosophy. Are 0:40:28.239 --> 0:40:30.600 you a you know, are you going to take the 0:40:30.760 --> 0:40:32.439 points value every single time? 0:40:32.560 --> 0:40:33.239 Or are you not? 0:40:33.560 --> 0:40:36.840 And look, I mean, god, bless oz makers. They've they've finally, 0:40:36.880 --> 0:40:38.799 you know, put the Patriots tax too high for even 0:40:38.880 --> 0:40:42.319 me and I there's really wasn't a Patriots tax that 0:40:42.360 --> 0:40:45.200 I was afraid to play throughout the basically over the 0:40:45.239 --> 0:40:46.920 past three to four years. The first bet I make 0:40:46.960 --> 0:40:49.200 every single year when when any line's open, as the 0:40:49.239 --> 0:40:51.040 Patriots to win the AFC East, because I feel like 0:40:51.080 --> 0:40:53.399 they should be priced like Lebron and the Cavaliers were 0:40:53.440 --> 0:40:55.359 all those years. It's absolutely crazy to me that there 0:40:55.360 --> 0:40:57.920 are plus money every single year and then everyone, you know, 0:40:57.960 --> 0:41:00.920 things crash and oh my god, look this is the 0:41:00.920 --> 0:41:03.720 p the NFL is the Patriots league here and anything 0:41:03.760 --> 0:41:05.719 else is you know, at least to put yourself in 0:41:05.719 --> 0:41:08.000 a position to hedge guarantee money week to week and 0:41:08.080 --> 0:41:10.600 certainly in the futures market, can I get behind laying 0:41:10.680 --> 0:41:12.960 seventeen and a half on the road. Look, this is 0:41:12.960 --> 0:41:17.160 a weird spot because usually the Dolphins come into Foxborough 0:41:17.400 --> 0:41:21.960 in the first game and Patriots play in Miami every December. 0:41:22.480 --> 0:41:25.360 Basically since the last ten plus years that I can remember, 0:41:25.360 --> 0:41:27.719 that's always, always always been the case. That's why the 0:41:27.719 --> 0:41:31.120 Patriots always struggle Ats or even outright against Miami in 0:41:31.200 --> 0:41:33.440 that December spot, So you're getting that here. Look the 0:41:33.480 --> 0:41:36.719 Dolphins the second time around. It's no matter what the 0:41:36.800 --> 0:41:39.000 number is, always a blind bet. I can't remember lying 0:41:39.000 --> 0:41:42.359 getting this out of control in a very long time. Look, 0:41:42.400 --> 0:41:44.480 maybe you treat this like Alabama and you play a 0:41:44.520 --> 0:41:47.640 little Patriots first quarter or something like that. I don't 0:41:47.680 --> 0:41:49.120 even know what to do with this. I have to 0:41:49.160 --> 0:41:51.240 pass because the tax is just too high. 0:41:51.320 --> 0:41:53.520 Yeah, I mean, it's just been moving all day long, 0:41:53.680 --> 0:41:56.360 so I can't imagine it gets much higher than seventeen 0:41:56.400 --> 0:41:59.600 and a half. But it opened at fourteen essentially, and 0:42:00.000 --> 0:42:02.800 it was like, you know, it's moved two points essentially 0:42:02.880 --> 0:42:04.400 over the last I think it's. 0:42:04.520 --> 0:42:05.960 Like ten and a half in some spots. 0:42:05.960 --> 0:42:08.799 Honestly, it's just crazy. I mean recently when I looked 0:42:08.800 --> 0:42:10.440 at it, originally it was at fourteen and then it 0:42:10.520 --> 0:42:12.440 just kept going. So my guess is going to hit 0:42:12.480 --> 0:42:14.839 a tipping point. This is probably about where it is 0:42:14.880 --> 0:42:17.560 you started getting in eighteen nineteen. I mean, it's just insane. 0:42:17.640 --> 0:42:19.400 So my guess is this is a round where it 0:42:19.480 --> 0:42:21.200 ends up. Let's move on to the Chiefs at the 0:42:21.280 --> 0:42:23.879 Raiders I don't have an over under right now because 0:42:23.920 --> 0:42:25.960 the Raiders haven't played yet, so books haven't at least 0:42:25.960 --> 0:42:27.239 what I've seen come out with it. Or we don't 0:42:27.239 --> 0:42:30.360 have a consensus anyway. But the Chiefs are laying nine points. 0:42:30.360 --> 0:42:33.600 They've lost Tyreek Hill. Ma Holmes has a bit of 0:42:33.600 --> 0:42:36.200 an angle injury. I mean, what do you think. It's 0:42:36.239 --> 0:42:37.920 hard to know, of course, because we haven't seen the 0:42:37.960 --> 0:42:39.720 Raiders play yet. What do you think about the Chiefs 0:42:39.800 --> 0:42:41.320 at the Raiders laying nine points? 0:42:41.520 --> 0:42:42.080 You nailed it. 0:42:42.239 --> 0:42:43.719 We don't know what to see, you know, what to 0:42:43.760 --> 0:42:44.960 expect out of this Raiders team. 0:42:45.000 --> 0:42:45.560 It could go way. 0:42:45.760 --> 0:42:47.920 You know, the Raiders to me are always kind of 0:42:47.960 --> 0:42:49.759 I equate them in Major League Baseball to the Mets. 0:42:49.800 --> 0:42:53.200 There's just such a range of outcomes every single year, 0:42:53.239 --> 0:42:54.120 and usually. 0:42:53.840 --> 0:42:57.000 You're talking so much about my teams. Man, I'm a mess. 0:42:57.640 --> 0:43:01.040 Here is just NonStop. It's fine, I get it, go ahead, Sorry, keep. 0:43:00.920 --> 0:43:04.600 Going, No, It's just look, there's so many ranges of outcomes. 0:43:04.600 --> 0:43:06.799 If you know the pitching staff on the Mets, could 0:43:06.840 --> 0:43:10.160 you know they could be basically top three, one, two 0:43:10.239 --> 0:43:12.600 three in Si Young votes every single year, or they 0:43:12.640 --> 0:43:14.400 could you know, be at the bottom of the division. 0:43:14.520 --> 0:43:17.319 Just there's so many ranges of outcomes. The floor is 0:43:17.480 --> 0:43:19.879 so low. But I guess in theory even without Ab, 0:43:20.040 --> 0:43:22.000 I mean, what is the ceiling without him? That's what 0:43:22.040 --> 0:43:23.799 we have to find out. Look this the Chiefs are 0:43:23.880 --> 0:43:26.720 in a bad situational spot here back to back road games, 0:43:26.800 --> 0:43:29.680 banged up. Is Sammy Watkins, this player that we saw 0:43:29.840 --> 0:43:32.239 last week. In my opinion, no, I have to take 0:43:32.239 --> 0:43:34.040 the points here because it's I have to do it 0:43:34.080 --> 0:43:36.279 blindly in a situational spot week two that I do 0:43:36.400 --> 0:43:39.440 every single season. So the number, I'm glad it's it's 0:43:39.480 --> 0:43:41.040 a little bit higher than basically a pick them for 0:43:41.080 --> 0:43:42.680 all the other ones. Maybe they sneak in there and 0:43:42.760 --> 0:43:44.759 back door at Allah Washington last year. But I got 0:43:44.800 --> 0:43:46.399 to take the number. I gotta take the Raiders nine. 0:43:46.560 --> 0:43:48.800 Yeah, I mean, I think this one might move depending 0:43:48.800 --> 0:43:50.480 on what the Raiders look like right now without Ab, 0:43:50.600 --> 0:43:53.359 and of course depending on how Mahomes looks. But there's 0:43:53.440 --> 0:43:55.560 a lot of variables here. It's a tough one to 0:43:55.600 --> 0:43:58.239 really handicap in this point. So minus nine, I don't 0:43:58.280 --> 0:44:01.200 really know. I think it's probably struck me is right 0:44:01.239 --> 0:44:03.480 around where it needs to be given the Hill injury 0:44:03.480 --> 0:44:05.319 and without knowing much from the Raiders. But we'll find 0:44:05.360 --> 0:44:07.360 out a lot more tonight, as we will with the 0:44:07.400 --> 0:44:09.759 next game, the Bears at the Broncos. Right now, we've 0:44:09.800 --> 0:44:11.680 got the Bears getting half a point, but we talked 0:44:11.719 --> 0:44:14.759 about that FanDuel line that's messing it up a little bit. 0:44:14.800 --> 0:44:17.920 The consensus was at Broncos laying half a point and 0:44:17.960 --> 0:44:19.920 the over under is forty two and a half. Again, 0:44:20.000 --> 0:44:22.040 we need to see what the Broncos look like. I 0:44:22.080 --> 0:44:24.279 did see a stat today though, that I thought was 0:44:24.320 --> 0:44:27.080 worth pointing out. I believe it was Warren Sharp. He 0:44:27.200 --> 0:44:30.040 noted that the Broncos are twenty two and one at 0:44:30.080 --> 0:44:33.200 home in the first two weeks of the season since 0:44:33.239 --> 0:44:35.080 two thousand. I don't know if something like that matters 0:44:35.120 --> 0:44:36.560 to you, But what do you think here. Let's make 0:44:36.560 --> 0:44:38.480 it the Bears getting half a point, which is the 0:44:38.480 --> 0:44:41.040 consensus ods and the over under forty two and a 0:44:41.080 --> 0:44:43.120 half again without really knowing what the Broncos look like 0:44:43.120 --> 0:44:44.359 because we haven't seen him play yet. 0:44:44.440 --> 0:44:46.840 Yeah, so look that the trend certainly matters to me, 0:44:46.920 --> 0:44:50.160 But some things are just an anomaly, and you know, 0:44:50.360 --> 0:44:52.080 if you're at a roulette table, Red can come up 0:44:52.080 --> 0:44:53.960 twenty two times in a row, right, Well, is there 0:44:53.960 --> 0:44:56.080 a reason for it in that situation? No, But let's 0:44:56.080 --> 0:44:58.280 dig deeper and say why are they That is because 0:44:58.440 --> 0:45:01.960 at that elevation, at that air, the Denver Broncos are equipped, 0:45:02.000 --> 0:45:03.759 they know how to handle it, they know how to play, 0:45:03.760 --> 0:45:06.479 and teams coming in early in the season again talking 0:45:06.480 --> 0:45:09.680 about this unconditioned, they're not in you know, full season 0:45:09.760 --> 0:45:12.319 grind mode. They're not you know, into this, you know, 0:45:12.400 --> 0:45:14.520 into the full swing. And that to me is such 0:45:14.560 --> 0:45:17.760 the reason why. And look, Oddsmakers did a great job 0:45:17.800 --> 0:45:20.080 with this line. I really do believe that because I 0:45:20.239 --> 0:45:23.040 wanted to take the Bears, you know, hoping that the overreaction, 0:45:23.520 --> 0:45:26.319 because again I truly believe that that game last week 0:45:26.320 --> 0:45:28.200 says so much more about Green Bay and what they 0:45:28.239 --> 0:45:30.640 did to build their team to beat that division rival, 0:45:30.920 --> 0:45:32.759 more than it even says about the Bears. And again 0:45:32.800 --> 0:45:36.080 I'm not the biggest Bears believer here, but they made 0:45:36.080 --> 0:45:38.279 this line in the exact place that's going to keep 0:45:38.280 --> 0:45:40.920 me off of it. It really really did, because I 0:45:40.960 --> 0:45:42.759 can't go against twenty two and one. If you if 0:45:42.760 --> 0:45:44.719 you think I'm going against that, you're absolutely crazy. It's 0:45:44.719 --> 0:45:47.120 a very real thing. And when you talk about that total, 0:45:47.200 --> 0:45:49.920 the under makes an absolute ton of sense, knowing you know, 0:45:50.200 --> 0:45:54.799 Chicago's offense tired, you know these traditional what does elevation do? 0:45:54.880 --> 0:45:57.760 It makes you, you know, slower, it makes you breathe heavier, 0:45:57.800 --> 0:46:00.600 and so while the Broncos, you know, maybe equipped offensively 0:46:00.600 --> 0:46:03.000 to handle the physical limitations, I just don't think there's 0:46:03.120 --> 0:46:05.680 enough talent to overcome the Bears defense. So i'd love 0:46:05.719 --> 0:46:07.960 that at the number for the under absolutely stuck out 0:46:07.960 --> 0:46:09.839 to me, but I have to pass on the side 0:46:09.880 --> 0:46:11.160 just because of that show that you mentioned. 0:46:11.320 --> 0:46:12.880 Yeah, I think the over under at forty two and 0:46:12.880 --> 0:46:14.759 a half, which is low, is pretty right on for 0:46:14.800 --> 0:46:16.600 all the reasons you said. I wouldn't expect it to 0:46:16.600 --> 0:46:18.919 move the line. I think it's going to bounce around 0:46:18.960 --> 0:46:21.719 a little bit, but it's gonna not be It's going 0:46:21.800 --> 0:46:24.480 to be close to essentially a pick them in the end. 0:46:24.480 --> 0:46:26.560 And you know, it's an interesting game for sure, to 0:46:26.560 --> 0:46:28.680 say the least. But we'll see how tonight goes for 0:46:28.760 --> 0:46:31.080 the Broncos. Now, before we get into our last few games, 0:46:31.120 --> 0:46:32.960 I want to remind everyone that we're giving away and 0:46:33.040 --> 0:46:36.120 autographed Alvin Kamara helmet this month. To be entered into 0:46:36.120 --> 0:46:38.000 our contest, all you need to do is leave a 0:46:38.080 --> 0:46:41.240 review for the podcast on iTunes or Stitcher and senday's 0:46:41.239 --> 0:46:44.400 screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com. 0:46:44.440 --> 0:46:47.120 And again I pointed this out before we only started 0:46:47.160 --> 0:46:49.480 this season, so it's not like there are thousands of 0:46:49.680 --> 0:46:52.400 entries here. You have a legitimate shot to win if 0:46:52.440 --> 0:46:54.880 you send in a screenshot of your review, and if 0:46:54.920 --> 0:46:56.960 you entered last month's contest and did not win the 0:46:57.040 --> 0:47:00.760 Christian McCaffrey Helmet, then you are automatically entered this month already, 0:47:00.920 --> 0:47:02.919 so no need to worry about that. All right, Let's 0:47:02.960 --> 0:47:05.000 move on again to another game. That's a little tough 0:47:05.040 --> 0:47:07.320 because we haven't seen the team play yet, although we 0:47:07.640 --> 0:47:09.520 know generally what they are. This is the Saints at 0:47:09.560 --> 0:47:11.640 the Rams. The Rams are laying three. We don't have 0:47:11.680 --> 0:47:14.520 an over under yet because the Saints haven't played and 0:47:14.520 --> 0:47:16.279 there's no consensus sides. But what do you think about 0:47:16.280 --> 0:47:18.040 the Rams laying three to the Saints. 0:47:18.440 --> 0:47:20.080 I think a lot of people look at last week 0:47:20.160 --> 0:47:23.080 and you know, maybe the Rams offense wasn't what they remember. Look, 0:47:23.120 --> 0:47:25.800 the Super Bowl hangover is very, very real in team's 0:47:25.800 --> 0:47:28.000 week one. You know, there's there's great data out there 0:47:28.000 --> 0:47:31.160 where basically any team that is not the Patriots goes 0:47:31.239 --> 0:47:33.080 under their season win total if they lose a super 0:47:33.120 --> 0:47:35.640 Bowl the next year. In Week one is a nightmare 0:47:35.680 --> 0:47:39.240 situational spot for super Bowl losers. It's just everything as fresh, 0:47:39.280 --> 0:47:41.879 everything is, you still have that hangover. It's it's very real, 0:47:41.960 --> 0:47:44.360 and I think this is the ultimate kind of overreaction. 0:47:44.440 --> 0:47:47.520 Look to me, I need this. This is gonna sound 0:47:47.560 --> 0:47:50.359 weird because every you know, situation is different, everything like that, 0:47:50.480 --> 0:47:53.560 and I completely understand that. But narrative wise, look, the 0:47:53.640 --> 0:47:56.840 Saints have not had success in Week one, and so 0:47:56.960 --> 0:47:59.120 if they do end up you know, dropping this you know, 0:47:59.560 --> 0:48:02.359 uh home game against Houston on Monday night, could they 0:48:02.360 --> 0:48:06.160 start the season zero and two? Very real possibility. I 0:48:06.200 --> 0:48:09.000 think this is really where the Rams are. You know, 0:48:09.120 --> 0:48:11.800 now they can put last season behind them, you know again, 0:48:11.840 --> 0:48:13.560 depending on the number and everything like that. It was 0:48:13.560 --> 0:48:15.279 a really bad spot for them last week, and that's 0:48:15.280 --> 0:48:17.239 why the number looked a lot you know, fishier to 0:48:17.360 --> 0:48:20.400 some people who couldn't believe that the you know, that 0:48:20.520 --> 0:48:22.880 line was so short in this Rams you know offense, 0:48:22.960 --> 0:48:24.920 is this and that I get it, but I need 0:48:24.960 --> 0:48:27.120 to see what the Saints do in this spot to 0:48:27.200 --> 0:48:29.520 kind of really make my opinion, just you know, doing 0:48:29.520 --> 0:48:31.799 this one kind of blind without that, this is a 0:48:31.880 --> 0:48:34.399 very short number where the public and even odds makers 0:48:34.400 --> 0:48:36.480 are really underestimating the Rams, looking at it as an 0:48:36.600 --> 0:48:38.439 x's and o's thing or a scheme thing, when really, 0:48:38.480 --> 0:48:41.360 in my mind, that was just the worst situational spot 0:48:41.360 --> 0:48:42.920 for the Rams to come out, and they just needed 0:48:42.920 --> 0:48:46.680 to exercise last semon season's demons and put that behind them. 0:48:46.680 --> 0:48:49.200 That three is very very short to me. Aaron Donald 0:48:49.239 --> 0:48:51.160 could rek Havoc and Drew Brees all day. 0:48:51.080 --> 0:48:53.239 And out of curiosity. We don't have the over under yet, 0:48:53.280 --> 0:48:54.560 but what do you think the over under is going 0:48:54.600 --> 0:48:57.400 to be? Roughly two high powered offenses? Of course, what 0:48:57.440 --> 0:48:59.200 do you think? Make your prediction. I won't hold you 0:48:59.200 --> 0:49:00.600 to it, but let me know what you think it is. 0:49:00.960 --> 0:49:03.319 Oh man, that's don't worry. 0:49:03.320 --> 0:49:04.600 I'm not going to hold you to it. You could 0:49:04.640 --> 0:49:06.239 just come off the top of your head. You're good. 0:49:06.400 --> 0:49:08.480 Absolutely not. You got to hold me to it. I 0:49:08.560 --> 0:49:10.920 would say fifty six and a half at least. 0:49:11.239 --> 0:49:12.920 I like it. I like it all right. I was 0:49:12.960 --> 0:49:15.000 thinking fifty five, but I like it fifty six and 0:49:15.000 --> 0:49:17.120 a half. I bet you know you do this for 0:49:17.160 --> 0:49:18.880 a living. Of course you're probably a little more accurate. 0:49:18.880 --> 0:49:20.480 Fifty five was a number that stuck out to me, 0:49:20.520 --> 0:49:23.600 assuming no major injuries, of course, of course, to Breeze 0:49:23.680 --> 0:49:26.279 or any real skill player around the Saints. Let's move 0:49:26.320 --> 0:49:29.359 on to the Eagles. At the Falcons, the Falcons are 0:49:29.440 --> 0:49:31.839 laying one here and the over under a set at 0:49:31.840 --> 0:49:33.920 fifty one. I was a little surprised by this one. 0:49:33.920 --> 0:49:35.960 I get that the Falcons are home. I kind of 0:49:36.040 --> 0:49:38.359 expected this to either be a pick them or maybe 0:49:38.440 --> 0:49:40.880 even the Eagles to be favored by a point. But 0:49:40.920 --> 0:49:43.120 what's your reaction to Falcons laying one and the over 0:49:43.239 --> 0:49:44.080 under at fifty one. 0:49:45.920 --> 0:49:47.000 Let's break this down. 0:49:47.480 --> 0:49:49.719 This was the we've I feel like we said this 0:49:49.760 --> 0:49:51.560 a couple times on lines that stick out to us 0:49:51.560 --> 0:49:53.640 and some that we make pretty much the same on 0:49:54.080 --> 0:49:57.839 I do not understand this, And look say I don't 0:49:57.880 --> 0:49:59.360 understand it. Divisional underdogs. 0:49:59.360 --> 0:50:00.440 I get it. 0:50:01.280 --> 0:50:04.279 Did Philly come out you know slow where they down 0:50:04.320 --> 0:50:07.000 seventeen or ten nothing, whatever it was, seventeen three, seventeen 0:50:07.040 --> 0:50:10.080 seve whatever it was to start that game. Absolutely Philadelphia. 0:50:10.120 --> 0:50:12.719 To me, I think they're one of the best. The 0:50:12.760 --> 0:50:15.040 top two teams in the NFC, or let's say this, 0:50:15.160 --> 0:50:16.839 two out of the top three in my mind are 0:50:16.840 --> 0:50:19.160 the Eagles and the Cowboys, and they're both playing the 0:50:19.160 --> 0:50:21.720 same division. And I don't even put the Falcons close, 0:50:21.840 --> 0:50:24.920 especially with that defense and all the injuries. And really, 0:50:25.280 --> 0:50:28.239 just look, we saw this last last week. Are the 0:50:28.440 --> 0:50:30.640 Vikings this month? This is an overreaction. When you do 0:50:30.680 --> 0:50:34.040 a little bit of Oddsmaker math here, you know, Vikings 0:50:34.080 --> 0:50:36.080 being favored over the Eagles is what this is saying, 0:50:36.120 --> 0:50:38.840 which is a little bit crazy to me. The Eagles 0:50:38.880 --> 0:50:40.880 maybe the heaviest betside. I think I've said that a 0:50:40.880 --> 0:50:42.600 couple of times, but now I'm changing this for the 0:50:42.640 --> 0:50:45.000 last time to the Eagles because everyone is going to 0:50:45.040 --> 0:50:47.520 look at this and again this is psychological just because 0:50:47.520 --> 0:50:50.759 there's a plus in front of the Eagles. Oh the disrespect. 0:50:50.880 --> 0:50:54.000 Oh my god, Carson Wentz all these weapons to Seawan Jackson. Look, 0:50:54.040 --> 0:50:57.160 DeShawn Jackson's a boomer bust guy. That was a revenge 0:50:57.160 --> 0:50:58.759 game on a team that he didn't want to be. 0:50:58.719 --> 0:51:01.120 A part of. That's narrative rights itself. 0:51:01.160 --> 0:51:03.880 That's Sean Jackson one oh one that when he's motivated, 0:51:03.880 --> 0:51:06.040 he gets behind a defense. When he's not, he can 0:51:06.080 --> 0:51:08.480 take some stuff off. So the Falcons need to not 0:51:08.640 --> 0:51:10.520 you know, need to not be oing to. That's that's 0:51:10.600 --> 0:51:13.239 number one. The Eagles got out of Washington with a 0:51:13.280 --> 0:51:15.879 division win, so in theory, could they you know, kind 0:51:15.880 --> 0:51:17.200 of lose this one and be okay? 0:51:17.400 --> 0:51:18.880 Sure? I don't know. 0:51:19.600 --> 0:51:21.600 Public bet percentages are a very weird thing. When I 0:51:21.640 --> 0:51:23.839 look at this, I just didn't I make this line 0:51:23.960 --> 0:51:26.520 much different and be honest with you, but I understand it. Thought, 0:51:26.560 --> 0:51:30.320 what would you make it minus three and a half Eagles? 0:51:30.560 --> 0:51:33.399 Yeah, that's right. I mean that that's the thing. That's 0:51:33.440 --> 0:51:36.320 what's sort of stuck out to me here. I'm shocked. 0:51:36.400 --> 0:51:38.520 I imagine it's going to move. Do you think they're 0:51:38.520 --> 0:51:39.560 going to leave it where it is? Or do you 0:51:39.560 --> 0:51:41.239 think it's going to depend on the money that comes in? 0:51:41.440 --> 0:51:44.040 Here's my thing is it depends on the camp that 0:51:44.080 --> 0:51:46.640 you're in, because if it most from Eagles minus one 0:51:46.680 --> 0:51:49.120 to Eagles minus two, it's no difference to me. 0:51:49.200 --> 0:51:50.560 And that's the psychological aspect. 0:51:50.560 --> 0:51:52.279 But you would feel better about betting the Eagles if 0:51:52.320 --> 0:51:54.400 it was Eagles minus two almost rather than if it 0:51:54.440 --> 0:51:56.279 was Eagles because you feel like you're missing something, right, 0:51:56.320 --> 0:51:59.319 that's the psychological aspect of these numbers that you really 0:51:59.400 --> 0:52:01.279 have to start to take advantage or at least be 0:52:01.320 --> 0:52:03.360 self aware of of what's happening to you. And I 0:52:03.400 --> 0:52:05.279 just talked you through it. That's that plus one just 0:52:05.320 --> 0:52:07.200 makes you say, something is so wrong here. I have 0:52:07.280 --> 0:52:10.560 to stay away. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. I 0:52:10.600 --> 0:52:12.160 would say a lot of people would feel a lot 0:52:12.200 --> 0:52:14.080 better about this if it was just Eagles minus one 0:52:14.080 --> 0:52:16.399 instead of plus one. So to me, look, I make 0:52:16.400 --> 0:52:18.120 this Eagles minus three and a half on a pure 0:52:18.160 --> 0:52:20.680 handicap kind of last week aside, you know, taking account 0:52:20.680 --> 0:52:23.200 for narratives and kind of what happened and injuries and 0:52:23.239 --> 0:52:25.560 all that. So look a little short to me is 0:52:25.560 --> 0:52:26.200 what I would say. 0:52:26.320 --> 0:52:28.279 Yep, I agree. All right, let's hit our last game, 0:52:28.640 --> 0:52:31.000 Browns at the Jets. The Browns are laying two and 0:52:31.000 --> 0:52:32.960 a half. The over under is forty six. What are 0:52:33.000 --> 0:52:33.560 your thoughts here? 0:52:33.880 --> 0:52:37.520 Overreaction central here? Look, Cleveland was favored by I believe 0:52:37.600 --> 0:52:39.640 seven if they look aheadline at this, but you know 0:52:39.840 --> 0:52:41.759 time and time ago and now because they drop a 0:52:41.800 --> 0:52:43.640 divisional game in their opener, and now the hype train 0:52:43.680 --> 0:52:45.640 and now it's the same old Browns and it's this 0:52:45.719 --> 0:52:48.320 And look, I am not a Brown's believer. I believe 0:52:48.320 --> 0:52:50.560 that you see what you know, look what your eyes 0:52:50.600 --> 0:52:53.080 are showing you, and look at the data, and you 0:52:53.120 --> 0:52:55.480 can largely discount some stuff. And I thought that when 0:52:55.480 --> 0:52:57.360 the hype gets so real, you can look this In 0:52:57.360 --> 0:53:00.719 college football in Nebraska Ucla, there's all these different, you know, 0:53:00.800 --> 0:53:02.840 kind of hype trains. The Chargers every year are a 0:53:02.880 --> 0:53:05.520 big one for the general public. This is a very 0:53:05.560 --> 0:53:07.800 short look at either Cleveland goes oh in two and 0:53:07.880 --> 0:53:10.960 the season's over. You know, that's the narrative that'll be floated, 0:53:10.960 --> 0:53:13.040 and the Jets go one in one. This is a big, 0:53:13.080 --> 0:53:15.319 big overreaction for a Jets team that won, you know, 0:53:15.400 --> 0:53:18.480 three quarters against I would say, a pretty equal Buffalo team. 0:53:18.480 --> 0:53:21.120 Those games are always back and forth. Look, Cleveland dropped 0:53:21.120 --> 0:53:24.359 their opener and now they're all of a sudden, I 0:53:24.400 --> 0:53:26.439 think that their narrative, maybe even though it's not true, 0:53:26.520 --> 0:53:28.239 is the backs against the wall, because it would be 0:53:28.280 --> 0:53:29.920 such a story if they did start oh in two. 0:53:30.000 --> 0:53:32.680 And there's you know, the biggest Super Bowl liability for 0:53:32.719 --> 0:53:35.160 sports books. I don't say this very often because I'd 0:53:35.160 --> 0:53:36.920 like to fade public hype, but I think that that 0:53:37.000 --> 0:53:38.840 Browns minus two and a half when you look at 0:53:38.880 --> 0:53:41.920 looking at it look ahead, that was about seven overreaction 0:53:42.040 --> 0:53:43.080 Central was my first thought. 0:53:43.239 --> 0:53:45.040 Do you think it's going to move in favor of 0:53:45.080 --> 0:53:45.480 the Browns. 0:53:45.680 --> 0:53:48.480 I think this is the ultimate middle opportunity for professionals. 0:53:48.520 --> 0:53:49.839 I think if it gets to a three, you'll see 0:53:49.840 --> 0:53:51.320 a minus one twenty three and a half and a 0:53:51.400 --> 0:53:53.680 minus one twenty two and a half. And most professionals 0:53:53.680 --> 0:53:55.919 that I know would look to middle that every single time, 0:53:55.920 --> 0:53:56.720 taking both sides. 0:53:56.840 --> 0:53:58.880 All right, that's some good stuff, and thank you for 0:53:58.960 --> 0:54:01.160 not speaking ill of the Jets like you have for 0:54:01.280 --> 0:54:03.839 the rest of the podcast. I really appreciate that. Come on, 0:54:04.040 --> 0:54:05.800 I'm just kidding, buddy, you did great and now you know, 0:54:05.800 --> 0:54:07.560 as a Jet spent I'm used to it anyway. But 0:54:07.600 --> 0:54:09.560 that's gonna do it for today's show. Christian, thanks so 0:54:09.640 --> 0:54:11.160 much for joining me. I'd love to have you back 0:54:11.200 --> 0:54:13.160 on later in the season to give your reaction to 0:54:13.200 --> 0:54:15.120 the opening lines and make some picks next time. 0:54:15.400 --> 0:54:17.560 Absolutely, my friend. Thank you so much for the opportunity 0:54:17.560 --> 0:54:18.719 to take care. We'll talk soon, all. 0:54:18.680 --> 0:54:21.120 Right, great, Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show, 0:54:21.120 --> 0:54:24.400 bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app 0:54:24.400 --> 0:54:26.600 and use the promo code Harris to get your risk 0:54:26.680 --> 0:54:29.359 free five hundred dollars wager. And don't forget to enter 0:54:29.400 --> 0:54:32.239 our September contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin 0:54:32.280 --> 0:54:34.680 Kamara helmet. Just leave a review for the show on 0:54:34.719 --> 0:54:37.400 iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review 0:54:37.719 --> 0:54:40.560 to contest at bettingpros dot com. We'll be back later 0:54:40.600 --> 0:54:43.200 this week giving some of our best bets for Week two. 0:54:43.600 --> 0:54:44.319 I'll talk to you then. 0:55:00.080 --> 0:55:09.120 Oh, it's