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Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of

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Speaker 1: the Betting pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. Week one is in

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Speaker 1: the books, and as always, it was a tough week

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Speaker 1: to handicap, but now we have some actionable information to

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Speaker 1: guide our decision making going forward. As always, as soon

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Speaker 1: as week one ends, we need to start immediately looking

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Speaker 1: to week two, So as we always do on our

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Speaker 1: Monday show, we're going to be taking an early look

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Speaker 1: at next week's lines. We're not making picks here, We're

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Speaker 1: just giving our initial reaction to the lines as they

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Speaker 1: first come out. And with me to break it all

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Speaker 1: down is Christian Pena, a professional sports better and a

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Speaker 1: writer and managing editor for the Sports Betting Podcast. You

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Speaker 1: can find them on Twitter at the very convenient at

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Speaker 1: Christian Pina. That's p I n A, Christian. How's it going, man,

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Speaker 1: good man.

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Speaker 2: It's always fun talking with new people and companies that

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Speaker 2: are coming up into the space, and I've been say

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Speaker 2: such a fan of what you guys have done on

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Speaker 2: other ends and other areas, so I really appreciate you

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Speaker 2: thinking of me and I'm excited for you know, week two,

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Speaker 2: Week one, you know the biggest differences to me in

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Speaker 2: the NFL season. It's so funny we think of ourselves

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Speaker 2: as you know, these three month handicappers because Week one

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Speaker 2: kind of comes, you know, the lines open three months

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Speaker 2: in advance, and then everything we have to shift to

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Speaker 2: basically five day handicappers. So Week two, to me, both

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Speaker 2: in college football and the National Football League is one

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Speaker 2: of the most unique, in my opinion, really challenging weeks

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Speaker 2: of the year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, out of curiosity. If we had talked last week

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Speaker 1: for Week one and again you talked about it, and

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Speaker 1: we talked about this last week, which is you know,

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Speaker 1: the Week one lines come out months in advance, and

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Speaker 1: we talked a little bit about how they moved from

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Speaker 1: when they first dropped. Did any of them coming into

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Speaker 1: basically on Monday as of last week, did any of

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Speaker 1: them really jump out to is off when you first

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Speaker 1: looked at him. I'm not saying necessarily to place a bet,

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Speaker 1: but just where if you were you know, you're a

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Speaker 1: professional sports better basically if you were placing a bet

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Speaker 1: when you looked at you said wow, I expected that line.

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Speaker 1: Either an over under or spread on any particular game

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Speaker 1: to be significantly high or lower. Was it about where

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Speaker 1: you thought it would be?

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Speaker 3: You mean it for week one when they opened for

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Speaker 3: Week one?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not this week. We'll talk all about this week,

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Speaker 1: But I meant last week. If I had you on

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Speaker 1: on our Monday show from last week, we were talking

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Speaker 1: about some lines and one or two of them stuck

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Speaker 1: out to us as a little bit off, just that

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Speaker 1: we would expect it to be a little bit different.

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Speaker 1: I was just wondering out of curiosity from last week,

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Speaker 1: whether you had been on on Monday and we were

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Speaker 1: analyzing the week one lines, whether or not any of

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Speaker 1: them would have stuck out to you as a little

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Speaker 1: bit off.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk about that Green Bay Packers line and

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Speaker 2: the fact that they were an underdog. I understand that

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Speaker 2: they were on the rope, but when you look at this,

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's crazy how much the market and perception

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Speaker 2: of a team can shift on you know, a very

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Speaker 2: short sample size. And make no mistake, the National Football

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Speaker 2: League is a very short sample size. You're talking about

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Speaker 2: sixteen games where you know there's it's notorious that you know,

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Speaker 2: sometimes professionals are a year early on teams. We saw this,

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Speaker 2: you know, they were backing the Browns and got you know,

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Speaker 2: absolutely killed for a while. You know, but they were

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Speaker 2: just a year early. The same thing happened a couple

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Speaker 2: of years ago. They were a year early on Jacksonville.

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Speaker 2: So the short sample size in the marketplace. Look, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I don't understand how the Chicago team was favored at all.

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Speaker 2: And you know, inherently that's going to present some value.

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Speaker 2: And you get Aaron Rodgers, who has amazing success in

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Speaker 2: the division against that you know, particular number not to

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Speaker 2: mention the script was one hundred and eighty degrees flipped

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Speaker 2: from last year when Chicago was coming in with a

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Speaker 2: new offense, and you know, green Bay to me, really

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Speaker 2: I don't understand that. You know how they were in

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Speaker 2: an underdog when green Bay built their team to you know,

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Speaker 2: contain Mitch Trubisky's legs and you know, beat the Bears,

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Speaker 2: and for lack of a better term, they got so

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Speaker 2: much faster with their draft pick and you know, Savage,

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Speaker 2: the safety is probably already you know, running a four

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Speaker 2: to two, one of the fastest guys in the back

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Speaker 2: end in the league. And they learned how to you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of bring people in too, you know, set that

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Speaker 2: edge and make Triubisky beat them from the pocket, and

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Speaker 2: it really did play out that way. I thought their

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Speaker 2: offense would be a lot better. But you know, at

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Speaker 2: the end of the day, that's uh, you know, in

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Speaker 2: terms of line value, that was the biggest one that

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Speaker 2: really stuck out to me. And when you go down

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Speaker 2: the line, look, division underdog, divisional underdogs in a week

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Speaker 2: one constantly have a great records, so you know, to me,

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Speaker 2: that's kind of where everything starts and ends, and when

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Speaker 2: those lines are very much flipped. Again, we saw this

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Speaker 2: with Tennessee, we saw this just about everywhere. Washington just

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Speaker 2: squeaking in inside the numbers. So the Green Bay one

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Speaker 2: was the biggest kind of head scratcher to me, and

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Speaker 2: just making some of these you know, divisional underdogs that

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Speaker 2: do so well in week ones, you know, some of

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Speaker 2: these being very long favorites, like the Vikings in Washington game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to talk about the differences from this week,

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Speaker 1: especially because I mean, look, I was preparing for the

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Speaker 1: show and earlier today, just a few hours ago, I

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Speaker 1: had sort of the list of what the consensus numbers were,

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Speaker 1: and they've already moved some of them pretty significantly. So

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about each game here, and both

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Speaker 1: the spreads and over unders that we're going to be

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Speaker 1: talking about, we're going to be using the bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: Com consensus numbers. Now, that is an aggregation of the

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Speaker 1: odds that are available in the market, and as I

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Speaker 1: mentioned last week, well these numbers are probably what you're

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Speaker 1: going to find. Generally speaking, there are occasionally pretty significant

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Speaker 1: differences in the odds available in the market, for example

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Speaker 1: with the Bears and the Broncos right now, and some

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Speaker 1: of this is due to the fact that we're recording

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Speaker 1: this on Monday night. The Broncos haven't played yet, so

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Speaker 1: this could move. But you've got Fandle with the Bears

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Speaker 1: at minus two and a half. Almost every other book

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Speaker 1: has them at plus one. So if you look to

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Speaker 1: maximize your return on investment, make sure to shop around

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Speaker 1: a bit for the best odds that you can get.

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Speaker 1: But for now, just know that when I list any

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Speaker 1: given odds, they're bettingpros dot Com consensus ods. All right, Christian,

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Speaker 1: let's begin with the Thursday night game. That's the Bucks

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Speaker 1: at the Panthers. We've got the Panthers laying six and

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Speaker 1: a half points and the over under at fifty. What's

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Speaker 1: your reaction to those lines.

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Speaker 2: Look, when you look at this Tampa team, they are

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Speaker 2: you know, they Winston. I really, you know, thought he'd make,

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Speaker 2: you know, finally take that step forward and you know

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Speaker 2: he doesn't have Fitzpatrick, you know, looking over his shoulder,

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Speaker 2: and he's not going to be worrying about coming in

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Speaker 2: and we saw that. It's just he just played like

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Speaker 2: there's nobody else behind him, which is usually you know,

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Speaker 2: a good thing for confidence, and I guess it went

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Speaker 2: the other way with him, So I get this reaction.

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Speaker 2: I mean when you look at the look aheadlines, this

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Speaker 2: was about a minus three for Carolina at home. Look Carolina,

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Speaker 2: you know, cross country, they were going to la different

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Speaker 2: time zone, all that type of stuff came into play

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Speaker 2: on week one and they really did hang around with

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Speaker 2: them depending on the number that you got last time.

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Speaker 2: But you look at a guy like McCaffrey and I

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Speaker 2: just I think that his trajectory reminds me so much

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Speaker 2: of Levey on Bell and you know, had Leveon Bell

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Speaker 2: want an MVP, I think that you could, you know,

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Speaker 2: really make a case for you know that blueprint to

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Speaker 2: be followed, it just becomes such a quarterback kind of

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Speaker 2: driven league. But to me, this line in total are

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Speaker 2: set just about where I would make them, again, assuming

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Speaker 2: I give Carolina a little bit of a downgrade for

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Speaker 2: a home field advantage, you know, maybe it's two instead

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Speaker 2: of the normal kind of flat three across the board

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Speaker 2: that most people will use, you know, just again based

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Speaker 2: on time all that type of stuff. But I will

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Speaker 2: say there is a very good trend out there on

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Speaker 2: you know, home teams playing on Thursday night. And I

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Speaker 2: don't know if you can classify Bruce Arians as a

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Speaker 2: quote unquote rookie head coach, but he is in his

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Speaker 2: first year with a new team, and traditionally that is

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Speaker 2: a great spot to fade. So I do think this,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe there's you know, a half point of value,

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Speaker 2: a point of value, but I really just see this

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Speaker 2: one as Carolina kind of you know, continuing to undress Tampa.

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Speaker 2: And I think that this line is probably right on

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Speaker 2: the money.

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Speaker 1: And how and the total too at fifty. I mean

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Speaker 1: they last year, one of their games they totaled at seventy,

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Speaker 1: you know, so it struck me when I first looked

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Speaker 1: at it as maybe a little high, but you know,

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Speaker 1: on second thought, I guess it kind of seems right

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Speaker 1: at the number. You know, the Bucks offense didn't look

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Speaker 1: fantastic on Sunday, and the Panthers, you know, Cam Newton

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Speaker 1: was a little rusty going in. They still have a

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Speaker 1: strong defense. The fifty number initially struck me as a

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Speaker 1: little too high, but after second thought and kind of

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Speaker 1: looking at their history and looking at everything, it probably

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Speaker 1: struck me right about online. Are you on board there

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Speaker 1: with the fifty over under? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: You look at the last time that these two played

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Speaker 2: on December second, twenty eighteen, twenty four to seventeen victory,

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Speaker 2: so that one, you know, did go under that I

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Speaker 2: would definitely lean with the under with you there as well.

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Speaker 2: Look in the beginning of seasons, there's a reason that

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Speaker 2: professionals will always go under in the Hall of Fame game,

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Speaker 2: and that's because traditionally, to start things off, defenses are

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Speaker 2: always ahead of offense. There's it's just schematically, I don't

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Speaker 2: want to say easier, but it's just a little bit

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Speaker 2: you know, different to apply. So I will always lean

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Speaker 2: towards an under, especially early in the seasons.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the next game. We've

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Speaker 1: got the Chargers at the Lions. The Chargers are laying

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Speaker 1: two and a half points. Now, this was at three

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Speaker 1: earlier in the day, it's moved to two and a

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Speaker 1: half and the over under is set on forty seven,

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Speaker 1: both these teams coming off overtime games. What are your

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Speaker 1: thoughts here on Chargers laying two and a half and

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Speaker 1: the over under at forty seven.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple things here really struck me out. Number one,

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Speaker 2: this is probably going to be the most publicly sided

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Speaker 2: game of the week, and I would say that majority

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Speaker 2: of people are going to come out in droves for

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Speaker 2: the Chargers laying that short number on the road. And

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Speaker 2: again we just said both teams playing, you know, after overtime,

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Speaker 2: so you know, the Lions did go the full you know,

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Speaker 2: extra quarter in the season in the beginning of the season.

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Speaker 3: That's usually a detriment.

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Speaker 2: You could look at a couple of different ways, but

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Speaker 2: to me, that's what struck me the most about this

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Speaker 2: one is this is going to be probably the biggest,

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Speaker 2: one of the biggest book needs of the afternoon. When

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Speaker 2: we talk about the Chargers side, again, you saw that

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Speaker 2: number tick up minus two and a half three some places,

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Speaker 2: again using our consensus minus two and a half.

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Speaker 3: And the other thing.

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Speaker 2: Public's like two things, favorites and overs because they'd like

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Speaker 2: to see scores, and the same thing happened. I saw

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Speaker 2: that total, and my initial reaction was that seems, you know,

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Speaker 2: very very low when you look at the game last

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Speaker 2: year that ended thirty three to twenty eight with these

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Speaker 2: two teams.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, that was my reaction too. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: think that spread was fine. You know, I also completely

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Speaker 1: agree that I would expect the public to certainly be

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Speaker 1: backing the Chargers in droves, and they probably have been

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Speaker 1: at least somewhat already with the line move. And yeah,

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Speaker 1: I agree the over under. It just it struck me

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Speaker 1: as a little light. I mean, both teams. You know

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Speaker 1: that the Lions showed, you know, the Cardinals their defense

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Speaker 1: certainly is nothing to write home about. But the Lions

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Speaker 1: on offense, you know, they have more weapons. TJ. Hockinson

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Speaker 1: obviously adds a new dimension to that. Danny Amandola right

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Speaker 1: in the middle, to add to Marvin Jones and Kenny Galladay.

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Speaker 1: So I do think that their offense can score points.

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Speaker 1: And Indianapolis showed yesterday that the Charters defense certainly is

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Speaker 1: far from infallible. Although they're strong, they're dealing with another

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Speaker 1: injury at cornerback. So you know, with the two with

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Speaker 1: the Chargers defense kind of backed up both teams having

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Speaker 1: offenses at the Lions that are a little bit surprisingly

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Speaker 1: good at least if you look at yesterday. I also

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Speaker 1: agree that I thought the over under struck me as

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Speaker 1: a little light. But it should be a close game

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Speaker 1: and I would expect more money to come in on

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Speaker 1: the Chargers. As you said, let's move to the next game, Colts.

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Speaker 1: At time Titans, Titans laying three points and the over

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Speaker 1: under said at forty four.

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Speaker 2: What do you think this is a little bit of

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Speaker 2: an overreaction to me? Was my first statement. Look, this

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Speaker 2: is kind of you always want to buy low and

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Speaker 2: sell high, and I understand the Titans just went in

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Speaker 2: there and kind of derailed the Browns hype training again,

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Speaker 2: a divisional underdog situation, a bunch of new pieces specifically

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Speaker 2: on offense, and you know, the Titans. For everyone out

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Speaker 2: there that you know hasn't kind of listened to me before,

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Speaker 2: this is one team that I don't know that I've

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Speaker 2: ever backed in my life. I just think that they're

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Speaker 2: stuck in a different age. You know, this was again

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Speaker 2: Mike Malarkey, the thunder and Lightning. They wanted to run

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Speaker 2: the ball, and that's just not how the league is played,

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Speaker 2: not you know, how the league is won. And so

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Speaker 2: the Titans are a team until they show me that

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Speaker 2: they are shifting, you know, kind of their philosophical mindset. Offensively,

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Speaker 2: I don't know that I can get behind a ticket

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Speaker 2: on them very much. But again a great you know,

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Speaker 2: divisional road spot for them in some nice plus money

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Speaker 2: last week. You look at the other side of the Colts.

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Speaker 2: This is another you know, reaction to the Andrew Luck drama.

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Speaker 2: You know, Brissette, you know, played okay, but this to

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Speaker 2: me is the ultimate kind of buy low, sell high.

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Speaker 2: So definitely kind of lean with the Colts on that

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Speaker 2: one and these divisional games, you know, despite the high

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Speaker 2: powered nature and theory of kind of what the Colts

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Speaker 2: offense was supposed to be. You know, let's be very clear,

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Speaker 2: this is a downgrade from Brissett, you know, our to

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Speaker 2: Luck from or from Luck to Berset. And you know,

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Speaker 2: traditionally coltson and these two teams have played each other

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Speaker 2: very very tight. They usually kind of split there, and

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Speaker 2: when you look at this, you know total again last

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Speaker 2: year was a little bit of a different situation, but

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Speaker 2: Indianapolis thirty three seventeen, and that was at a time

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Speaker 2: when Tennessee had kind of gone off the rails. But

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Speaker 2: to me, I mean Marlon Mack what he is able

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Speaker 2: to do that, you know, really to kind of take

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Speaker 2: the pressure off Brissett at only one hundred and ninety yards.

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Speaker 2: You know, Mariota, somebody I will always dare you to

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Speaker 2: beat me and there you know, if you do, I'll

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Speaker 2: tip my cap. And that's how we feel about this.

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Speaker 2: So definitelyan with the road underdog cults here at the

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Speaker 2: plus three and in the total, definitely lean U slightly

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Speaker 2: towards the ender.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would think the numbers struck me as roughly correct.

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Speaker 1: And I don't know about you. I have a really

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Speaker 1: tough time with division games, especially early in the season.

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Speaker 1: I just kind of think, you know, these teams know

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Speaker 1: each other generally speaking. You mentioned it's a little bit

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Speaker 1: different now of course because there's no Andrew Luck coming

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Speaker 1: in for the Colts, but it's the same system that

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Speaker 1: they ran last year. It's, you know, two teams with

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Speaker 1: relatively good defenses. The over under forty four is pretty

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Speaker 1: low for the week, but you know, it strikes me

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Speaker 1: as something that's probably going to be right out of curiosity,

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Speaker 1: and this is a little off topic, but I'm wondering,

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Speaker 1: do you have any fear of betting on divisional games

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Speaker 1: like this with teams that know each other so well,

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Speaker 1: especially earlier in the season, or do you just take

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Speaker 1: it like it's any other game.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's think about this, right, so divisional underdogs again,

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Speaker 2: I haven't. I didn't go back and do this for

315
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Speaker 2: I didn't add in what happened for last week, but

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Speaker 2: they were seventeen and four last few years against the spread,

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Speaker 2: and so I will always lean with the trends. I'm

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Speaker 2: a big trend better. But you know, traditionally what happens

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Speaker 2: with people, they see a trend once out there, inevitably

320
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Speaker 2: on their first time betting it, it loses, and then

321
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Speaker 2: they never touch it again, and all of a sudden

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Speaker 2: they forget it exists. So it's, you know, again, seventy

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Speaker 2: seven percent, you know, and I think that must have

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Speaker 2: probably went up when you had you think about Washington

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Speaker 2: covering last week, the Titans obviously winning out right and covering,

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Speaker 2: So there's probably a couple more in there, at least,

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Speaker 2: you know, nineteen and four, so above you know, pretty

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Speaker 2: much eighty percent in week one. When you look at

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Speaker 2: week two, you know, I will always, like I said,

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Speaker 2: side with the underdogs in division just based on that.

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Speaker 2: And when you look at this, you know, Redskins, Bills, Giants, Raiders,

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Speaker 2: it's a good opportunity here, and so I will always

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Speaker 2: kind of lean with those, because, look, we don't know

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Speaker 2: what these these teams are yet. In week two, we're

335
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Speaker 2: going off you know, preconceived notions of the offseason and

336
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Speaker 2: pretty much last year's data. It takes three to four

337
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Speaker 2: weeks to know what a team is this year versus

338
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Speaker 2: what a team was and what they could be like

339
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Speaker 2: like the Browns.

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Speaker 1: You know, yep, no, absolutely, yeah. For me, I just

341
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Speaker 1: never feel like I have a good, good sense of

342
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Speaker 1: it early on this season, So I don't look laying

343
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Speaker 1: three essentially saying that it's roughly an even matchup on

344
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Speaker 1: a neutral field and a small over under. That strikes

345
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Speaker 1: me as about right. Let's move to our next game,

346
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Speaker 1: also divisional game, the Cowboys at the Redskins. Cowboys are

347
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Speaker 1: laying four and a half points and the over under

348
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Speaker 1: is now forty six. Now when I checked earlier in

349
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Speaker 1: the day, it was forty four, so it's moved roughly

350
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Speaker 1: two points over. I don't know about you, I kind

351
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Speaker 1: of expected the line to be higher here. I expected

352
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Speaker 1: the Cowboys to be laying more points. What about you?

353
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Speaker 3: Yeah, much like that Chargers line.

354
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Speaker 2: I think this is kind of the fishy line of

355
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Speaker 2: the week that the public will you know, probably be

356
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Speaker 2: a consensus pick just about everywhere for the Cowboys just

357
00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:08,360
Speaker 2: over that field goal. But again, it's a divisional matchup,

358
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Speaker 2: and as Tennessee showed, these can be you know, very

359
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Speaker 2: very tricky, especially in the early part of the season. Look,

360
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Speaker 2: I don't necessarily give Washington a full three for that.

361
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Speaker 2: And these again, these teams know each other so well.

362
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Speaker 2: But the way that you know, Dak playing motivated and

363
00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:25,880
Speaker 2: if he you know, I would dare say maybe this

364
00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:27,760
Speaker 2: line even moves if he you know, does get paid,

365
00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:29,120
Speaker 2: And it could go the other way, just because you

366
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Speaker 2: look at the motivation factor for a guy, you know,

367
00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,480
Speaker 2: to go out there and just you know, make people

368
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Speaker 2: be quiet. And look, I am or I was the

369
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Speaker 2: the biggest Dak detractor on the planet. Before he got

370
00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:41,360
Speaker 2: a Mari Cooper, I was betting you know, his his

371
00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:44,200
Speaker 2: passing yards props under every single week and returning at

372
00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,000
Speaker 2: pretty nice you know, ROI in that department, I just

373
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Speaker 2: did not think you could win with a guy like

374
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Speaker 2: Dak Prescott.

375
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Speaker 3: And you know, I've said that before. I've been wrong before.

376
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Speaker 2: I'll be rung again when it comes to guys like

377
00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:55,880
Speaker 2: Trubisky and Golf, although the jury is kind of out

378
00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:57,640
Speaker 2: on those guys still, and as it is, you know,

379
00:14:57,760 --> 00:14:59,720
Speaker 2: in my opinion, maybe even on Dak despite the big number,

380
00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,480
Speaker 2: he's a to get paid, so it's very low when

381
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Speaker 2: you look at you know, a pure power numbers handicapper

382
00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:06,640
Speaker 2: is probably going to make this you know, Dallas minus

383
00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,880
Speaker 2: a you know, seven Road favorite. To me, this Washington

384
00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,080
Speaker 2: team is kind of you know, held together with you know,

385
00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,760
Speaker 2: silly putty and some duct tape and maybe some spit.

386
00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:17,480
Speaker 2: And I really do feel that way, and I think

387
00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:19,440
Speaker 2: that the rails can kind of come off here. Of course,

388
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:21,560
Speaker 2: you had the incredible running Davis touchdown here, and maybe

389
00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:23,720
Speaker 2: that's kind of fresh in everyone's mind, but next level

390
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:25,640
Speaker 2: thinking is very real, and when something seems too good

391
00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:27,640
Speaker 2: to be true in this business that is a very

392
00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,680
Speaker 2: real situation and not trap lines nothing like that. I

393
00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:32,720
Speaker 2: just think that there's something to be you know, when

394
00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:34,120
Speaker 2: you look at a line and it's so oft from

395
00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,560
Speaker 2: what you have, it probably means oddsmakers are taking into

396
00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:38,600
Speaker 2: account something that you're not. And as far as the

397
00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,120
Speaker 2: over under, I will always go under in these Cowboys

398
00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,000
Speaker 2: Redskins divisional games, especially in the first half market and

399
00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:45,680
Speaker 2: that's just kind of a long, you know, trend play.

400
00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:48,120
Speaker 2: The Giants and Cowboys went under I believe like five

401
00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:50,680
Speaker 2: maybe six straight prior to this this one as well,

402
00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:52,000
Speaker 2: so I'll definitely go with the under there.

403
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, this one, really, as I said, stuck out to me.

404
00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:57,000
Speaker 1: And again, you know, the only thing is I kind

405
00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,880
Speaker 1: of had that same feeling last week with the Ravens

406
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,400
Speaker 1: and the Dolphins, where I said, this line really needs

407
00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,680
Speaker 1: to be moving much higher and it stuck under seven

408
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,320
Speaker 1: at least where I was looking, and that was shocking

409
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:10,400
Speaker 1: and I went with it. But it was one of

410
00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:12,120
Speaker 1: those where I said, I know I must be missing

411
00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,400
Speaker 1: something because you know, a line like this is begging

412
00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:16,880
Speaker 1: you to take the Ravens. And that's kind of how

413
00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:18,840
Speaker 1: I feel about this one, which is why I'm surprised

414
00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:21,600
Speaker 1: it's a low. Again, You're right, there's probably something. I mean,

415
00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:23,640
Speaker 1: this is a line that's sort of begging you to

416
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:25,920
Speaker 1: take the Cowboys, which is why I expected it to

417
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:28,120
Speaker 1: be higher. But for me, look, I don't want to

418
00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,960
Speaker 1: draw too many conclusions from yesterday against the Giants, but

419
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,720
Speaker 1: I think with Kellen Moore calling the plays, with you know,

420
00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,720
Speaker 1: Zeke back, with a full season from Mamari, with Gallup

421
00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,920
Speaker 1: taking that next step, I think that this Cowboys offense

422
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:44,400
Speaker 1: is going to be really, really difficult to stop. The Redskins, Honestly,

423
00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:46,840
Speaker 1: impressive is the word that I want to use for them,

424
00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:49,560
Speaker 1: as unfair as that is, because they're really not a

425
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 1: very good team, but the fact that they came out

426
00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,360
Speaker 1: hot against the Eagles, they hung in their all game.

427
00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:56,560
Speaker 1: They're now going to be without Darius Guice though for

428
00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:58,520
Speaker 1: at least a couple of weeks. So for me, I'm

429
00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:01,160
Speaker 1: going to be surprised. As much as it's kind of

430
00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:03,240
Speaker 1: seems like a trapline, I'm gonna be surprised. There's got

431
00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,240
Speaker 1: to be tons of public money coming in, which also,

432
00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:08,000
Speaker 1: again you know that they know that setting the line

433
00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:10,359
Speaker 1: at this number, that there's gonna be a ton of

434
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,240
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Cowboys, which makes you feel

435
00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,359
Speaker 1: like they probably want a lot of money coming in

436
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:16,840
Speaker 1: on the Cowboys. But to me, the four and a

437
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,639
Speaker 1: half points just really stuck out to me as the

438
00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:21,240
Speaker 1: one that when I was going through the lines, I

439
00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:23,840
Speaker 1: was like, Wow, this is something where I really sort

440
00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:25,879
Speaker 1: of had the projection being much much different. As for

441
00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:29,480
Speaker 1: the overunder, I'm inclined to agree. You know, I think

442
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,160
Speaker 1: a forty six where it's at now forty four struck

443
00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:33,960
Speaker 1: me as a little light. But at a forty six,

444
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,320
Speaker 1: I think that's roughly right. Even though I like the

445
00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:38,720
Speaker 1: Cowboys offense, I do think that in a divisional game

446
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 1: like this where the teams know as a general matter, again,

447
00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,400
Speaker 1: yesterday Cowboys seem to have no trouble with the Giants,

448
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:46,080
Speaker 1: But in divisional game generally, I think going with the

449
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,360
Speaker 1: under and having a lower over under than you might

450
00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:51,440
Speaker 1: expect probably makes sense. Let's move to our next game,

451
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,440
Speaker 1: the Seahawks at the Steelers. Now, this one is interesting

452
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:58,040
Speaker 1: because it was at five, the Steelers laying five, it's

453
00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:00,399
Speaker 1: now the Steelers laying three and a half, and the

454
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,800
Speaker 1: over under was it forty seven and now it's at

455
00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:04,920
Speaker 1: forty six and a half. Do you think that this

456
00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,200
Speaker 1: is a reaction just to how abysmal the Steelers look

457
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:09,679
Speaker 1: last night? Or do you think that this was just

458
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,359
Speaker 1: going to move once we got a little more data regardless.

459
00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to say one more thing about that

460
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:14,720
Speaker 2: Cowboys Washington game and that.

461
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:16,360
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, sorry, I don't need to cut you off.

462
00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 3: No, no, go ahead, you're fine that though.

463
00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 2: You know, one more thing that did stuck, you know,

464
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:20,959
Speaker 2: stick out to me when you look at this, you know,

465
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:22,840
Speaker 2: why is this line where it is? Look, the Redskins

466
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:24,960
Speaker 2: lost to you know, the clear front runner I think

467
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,200
Speaker 2: in most people's minds along with Dallas by you know,

468
00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:29,320
Speaker 2: guess what margin five points. I don't want to say

469
00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:31,439
Speaker 2: they did that kind of blindly, but the situation and

470
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:33,240
Speaker 2: you know, I know, Washington at home in this one

471
00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 2: and all that type of stuff, but that does make sense.

472
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:36,800
Speaker 2: And look, that's a little bit of prime while you

473
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,359
Speaker 2: know what's called basic teaser wong teaser territory at that

474
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,359
Speaker 2: plus four and a half gets you through many different

475
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 2: key numbers up towards you know, above that ten and

476
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:44,920
Speaker 2: a half mark.

477
00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 3: So on Seattle. Same thing.

478
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,159
Speaker 2: The first thing that stuck out to me is I

479
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,560
Speaker 2: wish that five was available, because I believe Russell Wilson

480
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:53,800
Speaker 2: has not. I lost maybe one game in his career

481
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:55,919
Speaker 2: by more than double digits. And anytime I can, you know,

482
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,119
Speaker 2: tease a number up to get that, that is always

483
00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,720
Speaker 2: what I'm going to do. And every single time. And

484
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:02,240
Speaker 2: now that that's gone, look Toy still like it at

485
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,000
Speaker 2: the nine and a half? Sure, I just would have

486
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,320
Speaker 2: absolutely loved that eleven teaser leg It was the first

487
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:08,440
Speaker 2: thing that stuck out to me about that total or

488
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:10,200
Speaker 2: I'm sorry about that side and the total.

489
00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 1: Why do you think it moved so much out of curiosity?

490
00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:13,920
Speaker 1: I mean that's a that's a fairly significant move a

491
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 1: point and a half, and you know they just played

492
00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 1: last night the Steelers. They looked terrible. The Seahawks didn't

493
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:20,960
Speaker 1: look that great either. I mean they were favored by

494
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 1: nine and a half over the Bengals and they barely

495
00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:24,439
Speaker 1: squeaked by. So out of care, I mean, what do

496
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:26,640
Speaker 1: you think is driving that point and a half move?

497
00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 3: Yeah?

498
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:30,160
Speaker 2: Absolutely, Look, this was a National League televised game week

499
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,159
Speaker 2: one where every that's you know, probably one of the

500
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 2: biggest numbers are going to do for viewers both in

501
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 2: LAS Vegas sportsbooks or wherever people are watching this game

502
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,440
Speaker 2: for this reason. And so when you you know, primetime games,

503
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 2: the market over correct or you know over ad just

504
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 2: more than anything else in the world. When you get

505
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,960
Speaker 2: beat that badly, it's just so fresh in everyone's mind

506
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,399
Speaker 2: that inherently there's an overreaction. So yeah, if you are

507
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 2: kind of the you know, value based power numbers type

508
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,240
Speaker 2: of handicapper, you know, maybe there is some inherent value

509
00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,800
Speaker 2: with the Steelers to me. Look this Steelers team, I

510
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:02,080
Speaker 2: think I think there's a narrative. I think that Mike

511
00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,480
Speaker 2: Tomlin could be out of a job very quickly, you know,

512
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 2: quicker than people think. I think he makes a lot

513
00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:08,119
Speaker 2: of sense if you want to go into the novelty

514
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,159
Speaker 2: prop market of first coach to be dismissed, if you

515
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 2: know anywhere still has that up. And look, the Seahawks

516
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson has been very good to me in his career,

517
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,399
Speaker 2: both in his season win total in specific situations just

518
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 2: like this one. So while I do think that this

519
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:23,120
Speaker 2: is something of a bilosl high not again, like you said,

520
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,439
Speaker 2: not that Seattle did anything to kind of you know,

521
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:27,399
Speaker 2: sell them high on but they did get out of

522
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 2: town with a victory. And that's, you know, from a

523
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:33,200
Speaker 2: straight up perspective, all that matters. And so Seattle or Steelers,

524
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 2: I think the ship could be on fire much quicker.

525
00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 3: You saw Juju limp off as well. I don't know that.

526
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 1: He's supposed to be okay, by the way, just to

527
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 1: there was a report today that he's supposed to be fine.

528
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,880
Speaker 1: He is going to play in this game. So that's

529
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 1: at least one thing that we don't have to worry about.

530
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 2: Pouncy as well, was another injury. Then we have seen

531
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 2: this time and time again. When you know Pouncy Brothers

532
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 2: and what they really do for the makeup, much like

533
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 2: Frederick for the Cowboys, it's a different unit when he

534
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 2: is in there versus when he's not. So I understand

535
00:20:58,119 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 2: the line move, I you know, and I don't say

536
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:02,160
Speaker 2: I agree with it, but I completely understand the reasons

537
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 2: for it. Is just that's what the market does because

538
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 2: everyone is going to see what happened last week and

539
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 2: when they come out and they're going to try to

540
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 2: hit that you know road underdog at the plus you

541
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:11,399
Speaker 2: know five all the way down to plus three and

542
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 2: a half. So I get it, don't necessarily agree with it,

543
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 2: but I completely understand why odds makers did that. And

544
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 2: as far as the total, look, I was really shocked

545
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 2: at this Steelers offense. This Patriots defense has had holes

546
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 2: in the past. I know they're a revamped unit and

547
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 2: that offense, you know, is scary without Antonio Brown. But

548
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 2: to me, you know, the forty seven, what did Antonio

549
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 2: Brown mean to this team? We will find out now.

550
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 2: I thought Juju was going to take that next step.

551
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:35,119
Speaker 2: It was about, you know, just a bad game. I

552
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 2: completely understand that. But this all depends on if the

553
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh team can get going. And you saw, you know,

554
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:41,879
Speaker 2: with Metcalf, this is you know, Russell Wilson's has some

555
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 2: weapons to play with. Now Tyler Lockett all he does

556
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:45,959
Speaker 2: is catch touchdown, So definitely lean towards the overs bill

557
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 2: teams look to get their offenses in flowing.

558
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, the number, both numbers struck me as as roughly correct.

559
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:55,919
Speaker 1: The five that the open was I found to be

560
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 1: crazy to me. I mean, even before watching the Steelers,

561
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 1: I just didn't think. I think people, as you sort

562
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:05,640
Speaker 1: of said, for whatever reason, sportsbooks always seem to underestimate

563
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, So I thought that that

564
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 1: was way too high. As it moves closer to three,

565
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 1: I think that that's about correct. I think you put

566
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 1: these guys in the neutral field. I think it's roughly

567
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 1: a pick them game. And the over under to me

568
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 1: forty six and a half forty seven. I think it

569
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 1: was fine. You know, I imagine that I guess I

570
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 1: don't know, but I would imagine that most money would

571
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,399
Speaker 1: come in sort of on the under. You suggested that

572
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 1: you like the over there to me the forty six

573
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:31,680
Speaker 1: and a half forty seven right around there. I'm sure

574
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:33,919
Speaker 1: that's where it's going to end up. But to me,

575
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,439
Speaker 1: both these numbers at this point kind of struck me

576
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 1: as roughly correct. Let's move to your favorite team that

577
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,719
Speaker 1: you were talking about, the Vikings at the Packers. Now

578
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 1: the Packers are the oddsmakers have adjusted, the Packers are

579
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,640
Speaker 1: favored just by three, and the over under is at

580
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 1: forty four and a half. That has dropped a bit

581
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 1: since earlier today it was at forty six, So the

582
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 1: numbers dropped by about a point and a half. Again,

583
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 1: Packers at three forty four and a half over under.

584
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 1: The Vikings at the Packers, what's your reaction to that.

585
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 2: My reaction was, the Vikings are probably going to be

586
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 2: one of the biggest public underdogs of the week because

587
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 2: everyone just saw how they dismantled an Atlanta team out there,

588
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 2: and so look, the Packers looked great. They did well

589
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,119
Speaker 2: to say they've looked great, I think that defensively they

590
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 2: looked amazing. That being said, as I said in the beginning,

591
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,399
Speaker 2: I think that they built their team to stop the

592
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 2: Bears and the Minnesota is here is a cheat sheet

593
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:26,919
Speaker 2: on how I will bet against Minnesota or bet on

594
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 2: Minnesota if they are playing a team that finished the

595
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 2: year above five hundred the previous year. I Am going

596
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,920
Speaker 2: to bet against them and do it every single time.

597
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 2: And conversely, nobody beats bad teams like Kirk Cousins. Now,

598
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 2: this one gets a little bit tricky because I don't

599
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:43,919
Speaker 2: think this is the same Green Bay Packers team. I

600
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,399
Speaker 2: really don't. But yet they finished the year, you know,

601
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,880
Speaker 2: under five hundred last year. And that stat of Kirk

602
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 2: Cousins is absolutely incredible.

603
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 3: I'm trying.

604
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 2: I'm gonna pull it up right now. He is basically

605
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 2: about sixteen percent against the spread throughout his career against

606
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 2: a team that finished whether he over five hundred record

607
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 2: the year prior. So this one's a little bit of

608
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 2: an anomaly. I think that the crowds are going to

609
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 2: come and you know, look too back what they just

610
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 2: saw again Week two is over reaction week and so

611
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 2: it's a you gotta be very much aware of it. Again,

612
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 2: a divisional, you know, opponent, I usually do like to

613
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 2: lean towards the underdog, and as I said this, but

614
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 2: this number at the plus three that we are looking

615
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 2: at is something it's basically, you know, I don't want

616
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:27,199
Speaker 2: say it's to pick them because it is a key

617
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 2: number and it can kind of come off of that,

618
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 2: but it's it's absolutely crazy. And look, cousins, you know

619
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 2: record verse winning teams is five and twenty five, and

620
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 2: that is absolutely incredible. So in twenty eighteen, last year

621
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 2: went one and six, road record thirteen and twenty three.

622
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:41,880
Speaker 2: These are just too many things to me to look

623
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,160
Speaker 2: to look at that divisional trend. So I would take

624
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 2: three points here and avoid that you know, gross stinky

625
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 2: public underdog on the road, and look, totals, you're always

626
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 2: going to get me to take a lean towards that

627
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 2: under on a divisional game. I do think that total

628
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 2: is probably pretty much right on the money and just

629
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:56,479
Speaker 2: where about where I made it.

630
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 1: So if you were gonna make the spread for this game,

631
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,239
Speaker 1: would you have it? What Packer laying five or what?

632
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would put it right in what's called the

633
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 2: dead zone. If I was an odds maker, I would this.

634
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 2: You know, this game is really, like I just said,

635
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 2: I don't exactly know what to do with it from

636
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 2: a point spread perspective, because I just don't know about

637
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 2: this Packers team yet, and that offense look bad, and

638
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,679
Speaker 2: look that Vikings offense looks great. Yet Cousins will you know,

639
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 2: it's almost as if they've figured it out. They only

640
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 2: let Cousins throw the ball I believe ten times last

641
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 2: week and just had Dalvin Cook go wild. The Packers

642
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 2: you're not going to be able to do that. All

643
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 2: they are going to do is set that edge, contain

644
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 2: Dalvin Cook and make Cousins, you know, beat them. And

645
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 2: when you have a four to two safety and what

646
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 2: I believe is the second fastest in the defense in

647
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 2: the NFL, I put this in the dead zone and I,

648
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 2: you know, really make you pay a premium if you

649
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 2: want to back the Packers and find out and I

650
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 2: think that would probably make a lot of people pass

651
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,199
Speaker 2: because traditionally fours and fives quote unquote dead numbers. But

652
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 2: that's really what I would make that number right around

653
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 2: that four four and a half to five point mark.

654
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 1: All right, great, Well, before we move on, I do

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Speaker 1: problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, Christian, let's

691
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 1: move on to our next game. It's the Bills at

692
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 1: the Giants. The Bills are laying one and a half

693
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 1: and the over under a set at forty three and

694
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: a half. What's your reaction here?

695
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 2: I was really looking forward to what this line would be.

696
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 2: And that is for you know, one reason, there is

697
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 2: a you know what if I told you that this

698
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 2: situation presents at something rather unique in the marketplace where

699
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 2: one of these teams is you know, six point sixty

700
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 2: seven percent against the spread in the spot that they're in,

701
00:27:58,119 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 2: you know what that trend is when it comes to

702
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 2: this scheduling statistic for the in this case the Buffalo Bills.

703
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 1: I do not what is it.

704
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,679
Speaker 2: Teams on back to back road games to start the

705
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 2: season are one in fourteen against the numbers since twenty fifteen.

706
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 3: And look, these.

707
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 2: Usually aren't big numbers, so sometimes you can sneak in there,

708
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,360
Speaker 2: but usually these spots are really all about.

709
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:20,439
Speaker 3: You know, winning or losing.

710
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 2: I think the Bills just came back in fashion and

711
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 2: the public is going to see that as well. And

712
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 2: this is a gross home underdog Bills non conference road game.

713
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 2: These are all situations of look ahead spots after divisional

714
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 2: game A hard fought one and by the way, the

715
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 2: Colts are also in that discussion as well at the

716
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 2: plus three against the Titans. But to me, this is

717
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 2: the gross underdog nobody wants to take. And somehow we

718
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 2: don't understand how the Bills beat the Jets and they

719
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 2: just looked ahead to the next week. But this is

720
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 2: a pretty good scheduling spot at least for the Giants,

721
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 2: just to win the game at home against a Buffalo

722
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 2: team that is still going through the motions here and again,

723
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 2: when you talk about this total, you look at the

724
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 2: Bills putting up just seventeen points last week, you look

725
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 2: at the Giants putting up seventeen. That forty two number

726
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 2: is very very low, begging people to take that over

727
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 2: and maybe somebody gets it going. There is just not

728
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 2: a lot of weapons on the field for these two teams,

729
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 2: so I would have to go under there as long

730
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 2: as you're over that key number.

731
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 1: And what do you think about the one and a half? Then,

732
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 1: I mean, what would you have said it at if

733
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 1: you could make the line the Bills are right now

734
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 1: laying one and a half, would you have then made

735
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 1: it more of a pickum or.

736
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 2: What if they Because I know the data behind that trend,

737
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 2: and I think that it's you know, it depends what

738
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 2: you put stock into. To me, I weigh that heavily

739
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 2: when I go through my process and everything like that.

740
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 2: So I may have a completely different number, but I

741
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 2: would probably knowing what I know about you know how

742
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 2: successful Again, that's what ninety four percent, you know, And

743
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 2: in week two for those you know four teams that

744
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 2: I just talked about, in this situation, I'm going to

745
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,239
Speaker 2: make you know, if you're a quote unquote sharp out there,

746
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 2: I'm going to make you pay at tax for it,

747
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 2: and I'm going to beg people to take the take the

748
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 2: bills in that situation. So I would maybe I would go,

749
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 2: you know, maybe even giants minus three make people scratch

750
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 2: their head.

751
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 3: I'd go four and a half.

752
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 2: One's different just because I I'm sorry the uh yeah, giants.

753
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 2: I would go giants minus three and make people, you know,

754
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 2: dare people to take the bills in this dead that

755
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 2: scheduling spot form.

756
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 1: Wow interesting that there is one thing to note in

757
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 1: that although it is back to back road games, it's

758
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 1: in the same spot. They just faced the Jets and

759
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 1: now they're facing the Giants. So it's the same stadium.

760
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 1: I don't know if they stayed I would although I mean,

761
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 1: I guess Buffalo's not too far, but I mean I

762
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 1: wonder whether or not that's going to have any impact.

763
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 1: But it's a great stat that you gave as for

764
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 1: where I would see it going. I think it's probably

765
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 1: going to stick right around here. I think, you know,

766
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 1: they basically it's going to be about a point. If

767
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 1: the Giants wound up being favored, I'm you know, certainly

768
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: there would be a different way of betting. But for now,

769
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 1: I think the Bills laying one and a half the

770
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 1: over under at forty three and a half, I think

771
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 1: that that's roughly where it's going to end up.

772
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 3: Can I ask you one question about that though?

773
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, when it's under that too, mark, or let's say

774
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 2: under two and a half, I think, you know, this

775
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 2: is where I really, you know, really really differ on

776
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 2: my opinion from a lot of professionals. I don't know

777
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 2: that I, to be honest with you, care a ton.

778
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 2: It wouldn't change my opinion on how I bet the game.

779
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 2: If it was you know, Bills minus one in an

780
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 2: hour half or if it was Giants one and a

781
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 2: half or even up to that, you know two mark

782
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 2: anything below that number to just win. Do you do

783
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 2: you really, you know, would that change your opinion if

784
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 2: it was flipped and inherently taking those quote unquote three

785
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 2: points of value.

786
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 1: If you gave me the giants lang.

787
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 2: Three No, no, no, instead of giants, instead of giants, it

788
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 2: was instead of giants plus one and a half, it

789
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 2: was giants minus one and a half, and instead of

790
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 2: bills minus one and a half was plus one and

791
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 2: a half.

792
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 1: No, No, I mean I think your point, you know,

793
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 1: for me personally, No, I mean, I don't think that

794
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 1: really makes a difference. I mean anything under probably under

795
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 1: two really when you're below you know three at that point,

796
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 1: if you're just talking about whatever the bet is, I

797
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 1: don't really think it makes that much of a difference.

798
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 1: But certainly if you moved it from one and a

799
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 1: half to the giants one and a half. No, I mean,

800
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 1: if you like the bills, you like the bills at

801
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 1: that point. If you like the giants, you like the giants.

802
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 1: So for me, I agree with you there. If that's

803
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 1: what the point was, certainly not it wouldn't make a

804
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 1: difference in how I would approach the game. But I mean,

805
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: I think the public probably does, right, I mean the

806
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: public probably When you move lines like that, I imagine

807
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 1: that their perception of the game changes dramatically, wouldn't you think?

808
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 2: Yeah? And look, gambling psychologueal psychology is something I've been

809
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 2: fascinated for so long. And as soon as you put

810
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 2: a minus next to a team and a plus next

811
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 2: to a team, people instantly feel a certain way and oh,

812
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 2: how how can the Bills be favored? Or how can

813
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 2: Team X be favored? And in reality you're talking about

814
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 2: maybe three cents between a you know, minus one ten

815
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 2: no pickum game and minus one and a half minus

816
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 2: one thirteen or plus one and a half minus one

817
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 2: oh six. So I just think people kind of almost

818
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 2: psyche themselves out too much just because of what you know,

819
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 2: plus or minus sign is next to that number, when

820
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 2: in reality those type of things don't genuinely come into play,

821
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 2: you know, too too often.

822
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: Yep, I think that's a good point. Next game, Jaguars

823
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: at the Texans. Texans are playing right now, so things

824
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 1: can change here. But the odds are the Texans are

825
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 1: laying nine and a half points and the over under

826
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 1: is fifty two and a half out of curiosity. Absent

827
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 1: a major offensive line injury or an injury to Watson

828
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 1: tonight while they're playing, would you expect anything really moving

829
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 1: this line significantly or do you think roughly nine and

830
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: a half and under fifty over under fifty two and

831
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 1: a half is where we end up.

832
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 2: It's going to be where we end up. This is

833
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 2: obviously changed so much when you go from fulls to

834
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 2: Gardner Minshaw. But look, I think that this is that's

835
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 2: going to be the story with this Jags team, and

836
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 2: you know kind of how he progresses. Look, there's always

837
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 2: a rookie quarterback. There's always somebody that comes out, and

838
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: a narrative never plays out exactly how you thought, and

839
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 2: these stories happen and you get to try to spot those,

840
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 2: you know, trends in the market or inefficiencies before the

841
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 2: market catches up here. And look the you know, odds

842
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 2: makers have no idea what to do with a you know,

843
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 2: what is Minshaw worth to a spread? You know, they

844
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 2: didn't know what to do when Tom Brady came into

845
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 2: the league. What is he worth to a spread? Nobody

846
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 2: knows these things until they have data to kind of

847
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 2: show it. I mean, you could you can't even quantify it,

848
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 2: you know, preseason. I know, I got a lot to

849
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 2: run all that type of stuff here, but this line

850
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 2: probably does not move. Look, the narrative is already written

851
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 2: for Jacksonville. Oddsmakers have shown that if the Texans get

852
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 2: blown out or if they you know, pull the upright outset,

853
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 2: which I do think they are a live underdog in

854
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 2: that spot this week, you know, maybe it gets over.

855
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 2: You know, maybe it just goes bananas, just like the

856
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 2: Dolphins and Patriots land line. But I really don't see

857
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 2: much of a move. I mean, you'd have to be

858
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 2: talking about twenty plus point victory for this line to

859
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 2: get over that key number of ten before professionals would

860
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 2: undoubtedly buy back on a divisional underdog.

861
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, I think basically you've nailed it in

862
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 1: that it's really tough to handicap this game because you

863
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 1: just don't know what it's going to look like now

864
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 1: with the Foles injury. So I think nine and a

865
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 1: half over under fifty two and a half absent something

866
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 1: dramatic tonight is probably where we're going to end up.

867
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Cardinals at the Ravens. We've

868
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,959
Speaker 1: got the Ravens lanth thirteen points and the over under

869
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 1: set at forty six. That's moved a bit. I've checked

870
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 1: earlier today it was at forty four, so it's moved

871
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 1: up two points. What are your reaction to Ravens lank

872
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 1: thirteen over under forty six against the Cardinals.

873
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 2: My reaction was that total is l ow low. I

874
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:46,439
Speaker 2: get it in a way because look, you were talking

875
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 2: about you know, Kingsbury famously saying that was three of

876
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:50,919
Speaker 2: the worst offensive, you know, three quarters of the worst

877
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 2: offense I've ever seen. You look at that fourth quarter

878
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 2: and look, Kyler Murray's going to have growing pains. But

879
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 2: look at the end of the day twenty nine for

880
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 2: fifty fourth three h eight and two. You know, I

881
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 2: was The Ravens are such a fascinating case study to

882
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 2: me in so many different ways because what they did

883
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 2: is reinvent their whole philosophy. How long have there evens

884
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:11,760
Speaker 2: been run first, defense first, and you know all this stuff.

885
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,360
Speaker 2: Now all of a sudden they're playing the madd and

886
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 2: O seven running gun with you know, Michael vic two

887
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:17,799
Speaker 2: point zero over there, and nobody knows what to come.

888
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 2: That's why I love, you know, in some ways it's

889
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 2: very difficult. But from a you know, fan perspective, from

890
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 2: a handicapper perspective, some games you have to sit back

891
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 2: and watch and build your opinion on. In some games

892
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 2: you could spot in an efficiency. I believe that the

893
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 2: Packers in you know, last week wasn't inefficiency not knowing

894
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,839
Speaker 2: you know, what that offense would look like. This is look,

895
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 2: without a doubt, the side total or the side side

896
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 2: of this is this is a complete overreaction. If you're

897
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 2: a value guy, you are going to take you know,

898
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 2: any any professional tell you always, you know, take ten

899
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 2: points or more just about any time in the NFL.

900
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 2: And this is, you know, value wise, this is a

901
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 2: over reaction we do. And look, I think there's a

902
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,319
Speaker 2: real situation that Miami was just that bad and this

903
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 2: Ravens team is you can't look that good every week.

904
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 2: I don't think the Ravens are the Kansas City Chiefs

905
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 2: of a year ago, although the league is changing, but

906
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 2: that over I'm I would definitely that was my first

907
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 2: one is that seems very low for what Kyler Murray

908
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 2: was able to show. And look, the difference was Kyler

909
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 2: Murray was able to run his you know, his style,

910
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 2: he ran up tempo, no huddles. Well, that's what he

911
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 2: did at Oklahoma shotgun. And so if things do pan

912
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,760
Speaker 2: out for the Ravens, this one could be fireworks of plenty.

913
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 1: And do you think the thirteen number is right or

914
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,439
Speaker 1: do you think that that should be significantly lower? Sounds

915
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,880
Speaker 1: like you feel like the either the sports books or

916
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 1: the market generally has been overreacting a bit.

917
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again week two overreaction week I would probably

918
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 2: make this one if even I want to kind of

919
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 2: I mean, the look aheadline I believe was like it's

920
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 2: vastly different. Let's just say that I think it's maybe

921
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 2: even five or six points difference. And so if you

922
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 2: are a value based guy, that's you know what you're

923
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:48,399
Speaker 2: going to take.

924
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 3: Make me pick.

925
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:52,360
Speaker 2: I would definitely look towards that underdog, just because you know,

926
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 2: bet team or bet numbers not teams right, and kind

927
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 2: of ignore what you saw in Bilosa High all that

928
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 2: type of stuff. I probably make this one based on

929
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 2: what I seen, which again is still probably a little

930
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 2: bit of an overreaction, maybe eight and a half nine.

931
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 2: And again, I'm not a value based handicapper. I don't

932
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:08,839
Speaker 2: take points just to take points. In this league where

933
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 2: the spread is mattering less and less every single week,

934
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 2: So maybe you know, throw them a little teaser, maybe

935
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 2: get down to that look ahead number something like that.

936
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 2: But I would make this one much closer to what

937
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 2: I see for the Jaguars and the Texans, or even

938
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 2: a little bit less.

939
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, it struck me as high. It really did. I

940
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 1: don't necessarily think it's going to move anywhere, because I

941
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 1: think people are, you know, as much as people might

942
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: like you know, Murray and be excited by him, I

943
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 1: think what the Ravens data is just going to be

944
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 1: fresh in the public's mind. So it struck me as high.

945
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 1: I would have thought it was probably closer to you know,

946
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 1: the ten mark one way or another. So thirteen struck

947
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:41,319
Speaker 1: me as high. But I don't expect it to move

948
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 1: all that much going forward. Forty nine ers at the Bengals.

949
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 1: Forty nine ers are now plus half a point. They

950
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 1: were at minus one when I checked earlier today. I

951
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 1: don't know if that is the Tevin Coleman injury or

952
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:56,319
Speaker 1: what the over under is now at forty five. Joe

953
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 1: Mixon also may miss the game, but he has a

954
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 1: chance to sit up so right now because Census odds

955
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 1: are forty nine ers plus half a point in the

956
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: over under at forty five.

957
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 2: What do you think, same situation. I can't really waiver

958
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:08,360
Speaker 2: from the from us. You know, something that's been so

959
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,720
Speaker 2: successful for me, forty nine ers back to back road games,

960
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 2: and you know, the numbers tell me I have to

961
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 2: take the other side no matter what the number was.

962
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 2: Do I wish the Bengals were catching you know, a

963
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 2: three spot here three and a half? Absolutely, but look,

964
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 2: Cincinnati looked very good in a spot where many people

965
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 2: picked them to kind of you know, challenge the Dolphins

966
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 2: to have the worst record, especially without aj Green, and

967
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 2: you know, and the first quarter they're winning, you know,

968
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 2: they're up at half. They just dropped it in the

969
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 2: fourth quarter and that could certainly happen. You know, this

970
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:37,760
Speaker 2: Seahawks team, you know, when you look at to compare

971
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 2: to the Bengals and kind of, you know, give them

972
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 2: that measuring stick task. I think Seattle's you know, I

973
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 2: thought was a lot better than them, and maybe that

974
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:47,359
Speaker 2: was you know, that was a tough spot for Cincinnati again,

975
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 2: a non conference road game to open up the year.

976
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 2: All those type of things that are coming into play here.

977
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 2: So look, I got to take the number regardless of

978
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 2: what it is in terms of the value. And when

979
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,319
Speaker 2: you talk about you know, Cincinnati did a pretty good

980
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 2: job limiting that offense, and you can't really say that

981
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 2: a lot about the Cincinnati defense usually. But to me,

982
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:06,879
Speaker 2: that forty five a little bit short. I just think

983
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:09,839
Speaker 2: that there's a narrative here that Garoppolo I don't know

984
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:12,319
Speaker 2: that he can be this bad. I really do believe that.

985
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 2: And look, all the guy does is win when he's

986
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 2: healthy and he's in there. But to me, he just

987
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 2: don't rust all that type of stuff. Compounded with I

988
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 2: think he was just getting back into the flow. And

989
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 2: again all he does is also lose weapons around him. Right,

990
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 2: So look at Dalton. I mean foury eighteen and two

991
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 2: without an AJ Green and the San Francisco team had

992
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 2: two interceptions all of last year, already surpassed that turnover

993
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 2: differential comes around, but not to the point of, you know,

994
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 2: tripling it in the first two weeks. So while Dalton's

995
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 2: been known to throw an interception or two, I think

996
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 2: this one does go over the total, and I think

997
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 2: Garoppolo is going to be the key to that. But

998
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 2: I do think he gets it going at least a

999
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 2: little bit to get over that number.

1000
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to one of the more

1001
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 1: fascinating lines of the week, The Patriots at the Dolphins.

1002
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 1: The Patriots are at at this point, they're at minus

1003
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 1: seventeen and a half. It has been moving all day

1004
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,359
Speaker 1: towards the Patriots. The over under a set at forty seven.

1005
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:58,960
Speaker 1: I mean, you've been doing this for a long time.

1006
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:01,280
Speaker 1: When's the last time you've seen they've spread this high

1007
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 1: for a road favorite? Because I can't remember it.

1008
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:05,720
Speaker 3: Ooh, put me on the spot.

1009
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 1: That is a no, no, I'm not asking, it's all right,

1010
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:09,840
Speaker 1: no no, But I mean, what do you think of

1011
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:11,840
Speaker 1: this seventeen and a half? The Dolphins looked at bismol.

1012
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 1: The Pats looked as good as they ever have their

1013
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 1: getting brown back. I mean, what do you think of

1014
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 1: this line?

1015
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 2: I would say, first, well, I think it was probably

1016
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 2: the undefeated year. Whenever they played the Jets for the

1017
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 2: second time late in the year. Would probably my guess

1018
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 2: is to when that that second time was maybe Buffalo.

1019
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 2: But this look, again, it depends on your philosophy. Are

1020
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 2: you a you know, are you going to take the

1021
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:32,439
Speaker 2: points value every single time?

1022
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 3: Or are you not?

1023
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,840
Speaker 2: And look, I mean, god, bless oz makers. They've they've finally,

1024
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 2: you know, put the Patriots tax too high for even

1025
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 2: me and I there's really wasn't a Patriots tax that

1026
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 2: I was afraid to play throughout the basically over the

1027
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 2: past three to four years. The first bet I make

1028
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 2: every single year when when any line's open, as the

1029
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 2: Patriots to win the AFC East, because I feel like

1030
00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:53,399
Speaker 2: they should be priced like Lebron and the Cavaliers were

1031
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:55,359
Speaker 2: all those years. It's absolutely crazy to me that there

1032
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:57,920
Speaker 2: are plus money every single year and then everyone, you know,

1033
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 2: things crash and oh my god, look this is the

1034
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,720
Speaker 2: p the NFL is the Patriots league here and anything

1035
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:05,719
Speaker 2: else is you know, at least to put yourself in

1036
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 2: a position to hedge guarantee money week to week and

1037
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 2: certainly in the futures market, can I get behind laying

1038
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 2: seventeen and a half on the road. Look, this is

1039
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 2: a weird spot because usually the Dolphins come into Foxborough

1040
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 2: in the first game and Patriots play in Miami every December.

1041
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:25,360
Speaker 2: Basically since the last ten plus years that I can remember,

1042
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 2: that's always, always always been the case. That's why the

1043
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 2: Patriots always struggle Ats or even outright against Miami in

1044
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,440
Speaker 2: that December spot, So you're getting that here. Look the

1045
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 2: Dolphins the second time around. It's no matter what the

1046
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 2: number is, always a blind bet. I can't remember lying

1047
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:42,359
Speaker 2: getting this out of control in a very long time. Look,

1048
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 2: maybe you treat this like Alabama and you play a

1049
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 2: little Patriots first quarter or something like that. I don't

1050
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 2: even know what to do with this. I have to

1051
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:51,240
Speaker 2: pass because the tax is just too high.

1052
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's just been moving all day long,

1053
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:56,360
Speaker 1: so I can't imagine it gets much higher than seventeen

1054
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 1: and a half. But it opened at fourteen essentially, and

1055
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:02,800
Speaker 1: it was like, you know, it's moved two points essentially

1056
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 1: over the last I think it's.

1057
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 3: Like ten and a half in some spots.

1058
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 1: Honestly, it's just crazy. I mean recently when I looked

1059
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 1: at it, originally it was at fourteen and then it

1060
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 1: just kept going. So my guess is going to hit

1061
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:14,839
Speaker 1: a tipping point. This is probably about where it is

1062
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 1: you started getting in eighteen nineteen. I mean, it's just insane.

1063
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 1: So my guess is this is a round where it

1064
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 1: ends up. Let's move on to the Chiefs at the

1065
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:23,879
Speaker 1: Raiders I don't have an over under right now because

1066
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:25,960
Speaker 1: the Raiders haven't played yet, so books haven't at least

1067
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:27,239
Speaker 1: what I've seen come out with it. Or we don't

1068
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,360
Speaker 1: have a consensus anyway. But the Chiefs are laying nine points.

1069
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 1: They've lost Tyreek Hill. Ma Holmes has a bit of

1070
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 1: an angle injury. I mean, what do you think. It's

1071
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 1: hard to know, of course, because we haven't seen the

1072
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:39,720
Speaker 1: Raiders play yet. What do you think about the Chiefs

1073
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 1: at the Raiders laying nine points?

1074
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 3: You nailed it.

1075
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 2: We don't know what to see, you know, what to

1076
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 2: expect out of this Raiders team.

1077
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 3: It could go way.

1078
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 2: You know, the Raiders to me are always kind of

1079
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 2: I equate them in Major League Baseball to the Mets.

1080
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 2: There's just such a range of outcomes every single year,

1081
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 2: and usually.

1082
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 1: You're talking so much about my teams. Man, I'm a mess.

1083
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 1: Here is just NonStop. It's fine, I get it, go ahead, Sorry, keep.

1084
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 2: Going, No, It's just look, there's so many ranges of outcomes.

1085
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 2: If you know the pitching staff on the Mets, could

1086
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 2: you know they could be basically top three, one, two

1087
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 2: three in Si Young votes every single year, or they

1088
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 2: could you know, be at the bottom of the division.

1089
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:17,319
Speaker 2: Just there's so many ranges of outcomes. The floor is

1090
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:19,879
Speaker 2: so low. But I guess in theory even without Ab,

1091
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 2: I mean, what is the ceiling without him? That's what

1092
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 2: we have to find out. Look this the Chiefs are

1093
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,720
Speaker 2: in a bad situational spot here back to back road games,

1094
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 2: banged up. Is Sammy Watkins, this player that we saw

1095
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 2: last week. In my opinion, no, I have to take

1096
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 2: the points here because it's I have to do it

1097
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 2: blindly in a situational spot week two that I do

1098
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 2: every single season. So the number, I'm glad it's it's

1099
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 2: a little bit higher than basically a pick them for

1100
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 2: all the other ones. Maybe they sneak in there and

1101
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 2: back door at Allah Washington last year. But I got

1102
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:46,399
Speaker 2: to take the number. I gotta take the Raiders nine.

1103
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:48,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think this one might move depending

1104
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 1: on what the Raiders look like right now without Ab,

1105
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:53,359
Speaker 1: and of course depending on how Mahomes looks. But there's

1106
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 1: a lot of variables here. It's a tough one to

1107
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:58,239
Speaker 1: really handicap in this point. So minus nine, I don't

1108
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 1: really know. I think it's probably struck me is right

1109
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 1: around where it needs to be given the Hill injury

1110
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:05,319
Speaker 1: and without knowing much from the Raiders. But we'll find

1111
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:07,360
Speaker 1: out a lot more tonight, as we will with the

1112
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,759
Speaker 1: next game, the Bears at the Broncos. Right now, we've

1113
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 1: got the Bears getting half a point, but we talked

1114
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 1: about that FanDuel line that's messing it up a little bit.

1115
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 1: The consensus was at Broncos laying half a point and

1116
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 1: the over under is forty two and a half. Again,

1117
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 1: we need to see what the Broncos look like. I

1118
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 1: did see a stat today though, that I thought was

1119
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 1: worth pointing out. I believe it was Warren Sharp. He

1120
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 1: noted that the Broncos are twenty two and one at

1121
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 1: home in the first two weeks of the season since

1122
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 1: two thousand. I don't know if something like that matters

1123
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 1: to you, But what do you think here. Let's make

1124
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 1: it the Bears getting half a point, which is the

1125
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 1: consensus ods and the over under forty two and a

1126
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 1: half again without really knowing what the Broncos look like

1127
00:44:43,120 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 1: because we haven't seen him play yet.

1128
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:46,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, so look that the trend certainly matters to me,

1129
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 2: But some things are just an anomaly, and you know,

1130
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 2: if you're at a roulette table, Red can come up

1131
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 2: twenty two times in a row, right, Well, is there

1132
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 2: a reason for it in that situation? No, But let's

1133
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,280
Speaker 2: dig deeper and say why are they That is because

1134
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 2: at that elevation, at that air, the Denver Broncos are equipped,

1135
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 2: they know how to handle it, they know how to play,

1136
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:06,479
Speaker 2: and teams coming in early in the season again talking

1137
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 2: about this unconditioned, they're not in you know, full season

1138
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:12,319
Speaker 2: grind mode. They're not you know, into this, you know,

1139
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 2: into the full swing. And that to me is such

1140
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:17,760
Speaker 2: the reason why. And look, Oddsmakers did a great job

1141
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:20,080
Speaker 2: with this line. I really do believe that because I

1142
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 2: wanted to take the Bears, you know, hoping that the overreaction,

1143
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:26,319
Speaker 2: because again I truly believe that that game last week

1144
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 2: says so much more about Green Bay and what they

1145
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 2: did to build their team to beat that division rival,

1146
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:32,759
Speaker 2: more than it even says about the Bears. And again

1147
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 2: I'm not the biggest Bears believer here, but they made

1148
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 2: this line in the exact place that's going to keep

1149
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 2: me off of it. It really really did, because I

1150
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 2: can't go against twenty two and one. If you if

1151
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 2: you think I'm going against that, you're absolutely crazy. It's

1152
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 2: a very real thing. And when you talk about that total,

1153
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 2: the under makes an absolute ton of sense, knowing you know,

1154
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:54,799
Speaker 2: Chicago's offense tired, you know these traditional what does elevation do?

1155
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,760
Speaker 2: It makes you, you know, slower, it makes you breathe heavier,

1156
00:45:57,800 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 2: and so while the Broncos, you know, maybe equipped offensively

1157
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 2: to handle the physical limitations, I just don't think there's

1158
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 2: enough talent to overcome the Bears defense. So i'd love

1159
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:07,960
Speaker 2: that at the number for the under absolutely stuck out

1160
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:09,839
Speaker 2: to me, but I have to pass on the side

1161
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 2: just because of that show that you mentioned.

1162
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the over under at forty two and

1163
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 1: a half, which is low, is pretty right on for

1164
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 1: all the reasons you said. I wouldn't expect it to

1165
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:18,919
Speaker 1: move the line. I think it's going to bounce around

1166
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 1: a little bit, but it's gonna not be It's going

1167
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 1: to be close to essentially a pick them in the end.

1168
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 1: And you know, it's an interesting game for sure, to

1169
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 1: say the least. But we'll see how tonight goes for

1170
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 1: the Broncos. Now, before we get into our last few games,

1171
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 1: I want to remind everyone that we're giving away and

1172
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 1: autographed Alvin Kamara helmet this month. To be entered into

1173
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:38,000
Speaker 1: our contest, all you need to do is leave a

1174
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:41,240
Speaker 1: review for the podcast on iTunes or Stitcher and senday's

1175
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:44,400
Speaker 1: screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com.

1176
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 1: And again I pointed this out before we only started

1177
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 1: this season, so it's not like there are thousands of

1178
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 1: entries here. You have a legitimate shot to win if

1179
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 1: you send in a screenshot of your review, and if

1180
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 1: you entered last month's contest and did not win the

1181
00:46:57,040 --> 00:47:00,760
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey Helmet, then you are automatically entered this month already,

1182
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:02,919
Speaker 1: so no need to worry about that. All right, Let's

1183
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 1: move on again to another game. That's a little tough

1184
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:07,320
Speaker 1: because we haven't seen the team play yet, although we

1185
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:09,520
Speaker 1: know generally what they are. This is the Saints at

1186
00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 1: the Rams. The Rams are laying three. We don't have

1187
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 1: an over under yet because the Saints haven't played and

1188
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 1: there's no consensus sides. But what do you think about

1189
00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 1: the Rams laying three to the Saints.

1190
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people look at last week

1191
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 2: and you know, maybe the Rams offense wasn't what they remember. Look,

1192
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:25,800
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl hangover is very, very real in team's

1193
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 2: week one. You know, there's there's great data out there

1194
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:31,160
Speaker 2: where basically any team that is not the Patriots goes

1195
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 2: under their season win total if they lose a super

1196
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 2: Bowl the next year. In Week one is a nightmare

1197
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:39,240
Speaker 2: situational spot for super Bowl losers. It's just everything as fresh,

1198
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,879
Speaker 2: everything is, you still have that hangover. It's it's very real,

1199
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:44,360
Speaker 2: and I think this is the ultimate kind of overreaction.

1200
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 2: Look to me, I need this. This is gonna sound

1201
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:50,359
Speaker 2: weird because every you know, situation is different, everything like that,

1202
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 2: and I completely understand that. But narrative wise, look, the

1203
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:56,840
Speaker 2: Saints have not had success in Week one, and so

1204
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 2: if they do end up you know, dropping this you know,

1205
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:02,359
Speaker 2: uh home game against Houston on Monday night, could they

1206
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 2: start the season zero and two? Very real possibility. I

1207
00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 2: think this is really where the Rams are. You know,

1208
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:11,800
Speaker 2: now they can put last season behind them, you know again,

1209
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 2: depending on the number and everything like that. It was

1210
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 2: a really bad spot for them last week, and that's

1211
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 2: why the number looked a lot you know, fishier to

1212
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:20,400
Speaker 2: some people who couldn't believe that the you know, that

1213
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:22,880
Speaker 2: line was so short in this Rams you know offense,

1214
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:24,920
Speaker 2: is this and that I get it, but I need

1215
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 2: to see what the Saints do in this spot to

1216
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 2: kind of really make my opinion, just you know, doing

1217
00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:31,799
Speaker 2: this one kind of blind without that, this is a

1218
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:34,399
Speaker 2: very short number where the public and even odds makers

1219
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 2: are really underestimating the Rams, looking at it as an

1220
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:38,439
Speaker 2: x's and o's thing or a scheme thing, when really,

1221
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:41,360
Speaker 2: in my mind, that was just the worst situational spot

1222
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 2: for the Rams to come out, and they just needed

1223
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 2: to exercise last semon season's demons and put that behind them.

1224
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 2: That three is very very short to me. Aaron Donald

1225
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 2: could rek Havoc and Drew Brees all day.

1226
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 1: And out of curiosity. We don't have the over under yet,

1227
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 1: but what do you think the over under is going

1228
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:57,400
Speaker 1: to be? Roughly two high powered offenses? Of course, what

1229
00:48:57,440 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 1: do you think? Make your prediction. I won't hold you

1230
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 1: to it, but let me know what you think it is.

1231
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:03,319
Speaker 3: Oh man, that's don't worry.

1232
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 1: I'm not going to hold you to it. You could

1233
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 1: just come off the top of your head. You're good.

1234
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 2: Absolutely not. You got to hold me to it. I

1235
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 2: would say fifty six and a half at least.

1236
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:12,920
Speaker 1: I like it. I like it all right. I was

1237
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 1: thinking fifty five, but I like it fifty six and

1238
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 1: a half. I bet you know you do this for

1239
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 1: a living. Of course you're probably a little more accurate.

1240
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 1: Fifty five was a number that stuck out to me,

1241
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 1: assuming no major injuries, of course, of course, to Breeze

1242
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:26,279
Speaker 1: or any real skill player around the Saints. Let's move

1243
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:29,359
Speaker 1: on to the Eagles. At the Falcons, the Falcons are

1244
00:49:29,440 --> 00:49:31,839
Speaker 1: laying one here and the over under a set at

1245
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 1: fifty one. I was a little surprised by this one.

1246
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 1: I get that the Falcons are home. I kind of

1247
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:38,359
Speaker 1: expected this to either be a pick them or maybe

1248
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:40,880
Speaker 1: even the Eagles to be favored by a point. But

1249
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 1: what's your reaction to Falcons laying one and the over

1250
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:44,080
Speaker 1: under at fifty one.

1251
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 3: Let's break this down.

1252
00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:49,719
Speaker 2: This was the we've I feel like we said this

1253
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 2: a couple times on lines that stick out to us

1254
00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 2: and some that we make pretty much the same on

1255
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:57,839
Speaker 2: I do not understand this, And look say I don't

1256
00:49:57,880 --> 00:49:59,360
Speaker 2: understand it. Divisional underdogs.

1257
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 3: I get it.

1258
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 2: Did Philly come out you know slow where they down

1259
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:07,000
Speaker 2: seventeen or ten nothing, whatever it was, seventeen three, seventeen

1260
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:10,080
Speaker 2: seve whatever it was to start that game. Absolutely Philadelphia.

1261
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 2: To me, I think they're one of the best. The

1262
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 2: top two teams in the NFC, or let's say this,

1263
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:16,839
Speaker 2: two out of the top three in my mind are

1264
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 2: the Eagles and the Cowboys, and they're both playing the

1265
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:21,720
Speaker 2: same division. And I don't even put the Falcons close,

1266
00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 2: especially with that defense and all the injuries. And really,

1267
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,239
Speaker 2: just look, we saw this last last week. Are the

1268
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 2: Vikings this month? This is an overreaction. When you do

1269
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 2: a little bit of Oddsmaker math here, you know, Vikings

1270
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 2: being favored over the Eagles is what this is saying,

1271
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:38,840
Speaker 2: which is a little bit crazy to me. The Eagles

1272
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:40,880
Speaker 2: maybe the heaviest betside. I think I've said that a

1273
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 2: couple of times, but now I'm changing this for the

1274
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 2: last time to the Eagles because everyone is going to

1275
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 2: look at this and again this is psychological just because

1276
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 2: there's a plus in front of the Eagles. Oh the disrespect.

1277
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:54,000
Speaker 2: Oh my god, Carson Wentz all these weapons to Seawan Jackson. Look,

1278
00:50:54,040 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 2: DeShawn Jackson's a boomer bust guy. That was a revenge

1279
00:50:57,160 --> 00:50:58,759
Speaker 2: game on a team that he didn't want to be.

1280
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:01,120
Speaker 3: A part of. That's narrative rights itself.

1281
00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 2: That's Sean Jackson one oh one that when he's motivated,

1282
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 2: he gets behind a defense. When he's not, he can

1283
00:51:06,080 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 2: take some stuff off. So the Falcons need to not

1284
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 2: you know, need to not be oing to. That's that's

1285
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:13,239
Speaker 2: number one. The Eagles got out of Washington with a

1286
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:15,879
Speaker 2: division win, so in theory, could they you know, kind

1287
00:51:15,880 --> 00:51:17,200
Speaker 2: of lose this one and be okay?

1288
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:18,880
Speaker 3: Sure? I don't know.

1289
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:21,600
Speaker 2: Public bet percentages are a very weird thing. When I

1290
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:23,839
Speaker 2: look at this, I just didn't I make this line

1291
00:51:23,960 --> 00:51:26,520
Speaker 2: much different and be honest with you, but I understand it. Thought,

1292
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:30,320
Speaker 2: what would you make it minus three and a half Eagles?

1293
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:33,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. I mean that that's the thing. That's

1294
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:36,320
Speaker 1: what's sort of stuck out to me here. I'm shocked.

1295
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 1: I imagine it's going to move. Do you think they're

1296
00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 1: going to leave it where it is? Or do you

1297
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:41,239
Speaker 1: think it's going to depend on the money that comes in?

1298
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 2: Here's my thing is it depends on the camp that

1299
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 2: you're in, because if it most from Eagles minus one

1300
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:49,120
Speaker 2: to Eagles minus two, it's no difference to me.

1301
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 3: And that's the psychological aspect.

1302
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 2: But you would feel better about betting the Eagles if

1303
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:54,400
Speaker 2: it was Eagles minus two almost rather than if it

1304
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:56,279
Speaker 2: was Eagles because you feel like you're missing something, right,

1305
00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:59,319
Speaker 2: that's the psychological aspect of these numbers that you really

1306
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:01,279
Speaker 2: have to start to take advantage or at least be

1307
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:03,360
Speaker 2: self aware of of what's happening to you. And I

1308
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:05,279
Speaker 2: just talked you through it. That's that plus one just

1309
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 2: makes you say, something is so wrong here. I have

1310
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 2: to stay away. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. I

1311
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 2: would say a lot of people would feel a lot

1312
00:52:12,200 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 2: better about this if it was just Eagles minus one

1313
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:16,399
Speaker 2: instead of plus one. So to me, look, I make

1314
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:18,120
Speaker 2: this Eagles minus three and a half on a pure

1315
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 2: handicap kind of last week aside, you know, taking account

1316
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 2: for narratives and kind of what happened and injuries and

1317
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 2: all that. So look a little short to me is

1318
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 2: what I would say.

1319
00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:28,279
Speaker 1: Yep, I agree. All right, let's hit our last game,

1320
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 1: Browns at the Jets. The Browns are laying two and

1321
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:32,960
Speaker 1: a half. The over under is forty six. What are

1322
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 1: your thoughts here?

1323
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 2: Overreaction central here? Look, Cleveland was favored by I believe

1324
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:39,640
Speaker 2: seven if they look aheadline at this, but you know

1325
00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:41,759
Speaker 2: time and time ago and now because they drop a

1326
00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:43,640
Speaker 2: divisional game in their opener, and now the hype train

1327
00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 2: and now it's the same old Browns and it's this

1328
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:48,320
Speaker 2: And look, I am not a Brown's believer. I believe

1329
00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:50,560
Speaker 2: that you see what you know, look what your eyes

1330
00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 2: are showing you, and look at the data, and you

1331
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:55,480
Speaker 2: can largely discount some stuff. And I thought that when

1332
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:57,360
Speaker 2: the hype gets so real, you can look this In

1333
00:52:57,360 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 2: college football in Nebraska Ucla, there's all these different, you know,

1334
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:02,840
Speaker 2: kind of hype trains. The Chargers every year are a

1335
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:05,520
Speaker 2: big one for the general public. This is a very

1336
00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:07,800
Speaker 2: short look at either Cleveland goes oh in two and

1337
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:10,960
Speaker 2: the season's over. You know, that's the narrative that'll be floated,

1338
00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 2: and the Jets go one in one. This is a big,

1339
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:15,319
Speaker 2: big overreaction for a Jets team that won, you know,

1340
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 2: three quarters against I would say, a pretty equal Buffalo team.

1341
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 2: Those games are always back and forth. Look, Cleveland dropped

1342
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:24,359
Speaker 2: their opener and now they're all of a sudden, I

1343
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:26,439
Speaker 2: think that their narrative, maybe even though it's not true,

1344
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:28,239
Speaker 2: is the backs against the wall, because it would be

1345
00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 2: such a story if they did start oh in two.

1346
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 2: And there's you know, the biggest Super Bowl liability for

1347
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:35,160
Speaker 2: sports books. I don't say this very often because I'd

1348
00:53:35,160 --> 00:53:36,920
Speaker 2: like to fade public hype, but I think that that

1349
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:38,840
Speaker 2: Browns minus two and a half when you look at

1350
00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:41,920
Speaker 2: looking at it look ahead, that was about seven overreaction

1351
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:43,080
Speaker 2: Central was my first thought.

1352
00:53:43,239 --> 00:53:45,040
Speaker 1: Do you think it's going to move in favor of

1353
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:45,480
Speaker 1: the Browns.

1354
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 2: I think this is the ultimate middle opportunity for professionals.

1355
00:53:48,520 --> 00:53:49,839
Speaker 2: I think if it gets to a three, you'll see

1356
00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:51,320
Speaker 2: a minus one twenty three and a half and a

1357
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 2: minus one twenty two and a half. And most professionals

1358
00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:55,919
Speaker 2: that I know would look to middle that every single time,

1359
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:56,720
Speaker 2: taking both sides.

1360
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:58,880
Speaker 1: All right, that's some good stuff, and thank you for

1361
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 1: not speaking ill of the Jets like you have for

1362
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:03,839
Speaker 1: the rest of the podcast. I really appreciate that. Come on,

1363
00:54:04,040 --> 00:54:05,800
Speaker 1: I'm just kidding, buddy, you did great and now you know,

1364
00:54:05,800 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 1: as a Jet spent I'm used to it anyway. But

1365
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:09,560
Speaker 1: that's gonna do it for today's show. Christian, thanks so

1366
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 1: much for joining me. I'd love to have you back

1367
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:13,160
Speaker 1: on later in the season to give your reaction to

1368
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:15,120
Speaker 1: the opening lines and make some picks next time.

1369
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 2: Absolutely, my friend. Thank you so much for the opportunity

1370
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 2: to take care. We'll talk soon, all.

1371
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 1: Right, great, Thanks again to the sponsor of today's show,

1372
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:24,400
Speaker 1: bet MGM. Remember to download the bet MGM Sports app

1373
00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 1: and use the promo code Harris to get your risk

1374
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:29,359
Speaker 1: free five hundred dollars wager. And don't forget to enter

1375
00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:32,239
Speaker 1: our September contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin

1376
00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 1: Kamara helmet. Just leave a review for the show on

1377
00:54:34,719 --> 00:54:37,400
Speaker 1: iTunes or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review

1378
00:54:37,719 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 1: to contest at bettingpros dot com. We'll be back later

1379
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:43,200
Speaker 1: this week giving some of our best bets for Week two.

1380
00:54:43,600 --> 00:54:44,319
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you then.

1381
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:09,120
Speaker 3: Oh, it's