WEBVTT - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Week 11  ‘Sharp’ or ‘Square’ with Chad Millman

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<v Speaker 1>The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by FanDuel.

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<v Speaker 1>Colin and download the Fan Duel app today. All Right,

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<v Speaker 1>I didn't have the best week, but I felt most

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<v Speaker 1>of my games were go either way games. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I lost that Bears game, but I still thought I

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<v Speaker 1>was on the right side. Chad Millman CCO Action Network,

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<v Speaker 1>All odds provided by FanDuel, So it's a bounce back week.

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<v Speaker 1>Didn't love all the lines. There's a lot of plus

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<v Speaker 1>three or minus three, and I think the numbers are right.

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<v Speaker 1>So as we venture into Sharper Square on a Friday morning,

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<v Speaker 1>I'll start with one of those games. Texans getting three

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<v Speaker 1>or three and a half. The Texans have been in

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<v Speaker 1>most of their games. Washington short week comes off a

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<v Speaker 1>highly emotional win where they played nearly perfect football. We

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<v Speaker 1>tend to get a little hyperbolic if a team looks

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<v Speaker 1>great on a standalone game, Texans at home getting a

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<v Speaker 1>field goal or more. I'd take that side. Go look

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<v Speaker 1>at their results they've been in games Sharper Square Sharp

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<v Speaker 1>on Sharp. This was immediately bet. I bet it at

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<v Speaker 1>plus three. Unfortunately I bet it too early. It went

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<v Speaker 1>up to three and a half. The wise guys have

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<v Speaker 1>now come back and taking it down back to three.

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<v Speaker 1>There might be a couple of three and a half's

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<v Speaker 1>out there. If you can find a three and a half,

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<v Speaker 1>take it. Three is still the right side for me.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a huge pros Joe's game. About eighty percent of

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<v Speaker 1>the money coming in on the Texans and about fifty

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<v Speaker 1>eight percent of the money coming in on the Commanders.

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<v Speaker 1>The Texans, you mentioned it, they outplayed the Giants. Look

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<v Speaker 1>they averaged six yards per play against against the Giants.

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<v Speaker 1>They completely outplayed them. There's massive Washington inflation. After beating

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<v Speaker 1>Philly on Monday night, this was the first game that

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<v Speaker 1>I bet Tuesday morning, looked at the lines, saw the

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<v Speaker 1>Texans at plus three. I was worried it was going

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<v Speaker 1>to go to two and a half. I was worried

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<v Speaker 1>the wise guys would nail it through Week ten the

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<v Speaker 1>Texans have been the unluckiest NFL team parar Luck Rankings,

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<v Speaker 1>which quantifies a lot of different metrics that basically say

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<v Speaker 1>this team will regress back to the mean. They have

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<v Speaker 1>been incredibly unlucky against the Giants. Two red zone turnovers,

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<v Speaker 1>two red zone field goals did them in. You're getting

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of points of value based on the perception

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<v Speaker 1>right now. Take the Texans. Another game that jumped out

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<v Speaker 1>to me later today, Chargers plus five and a half

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<v Speaker 1>at home. Keenan Allen Mike Williams should both play offensive

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<v Speaker 1>lines in better shape. You know, the Chiefs have not

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily been a great cover team. They win, they don't

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily cover. It feels like a make or break game

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<v Speaker 1>for the Chargers. This one feels obvious to me. Five

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<v Speaker 1>and a half Chargers Sharper square. Yeah, so this one

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<v Speaker 1>opened at seven and this one again. You know, we

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<v Speaker 1>do that segment Sharp Calls on the Favorites me and

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<v Speaker 1>my bff, Simon Hunter, where the wise guys will call

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<v Speaker 1>us in the middle of the week after hearing the

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<v Speaker 1>first episode of the week. We get to the second episode.

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<v Speaker 1>They're telling us what they liked and what they didn't

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<v Speaker 1>like about what we said we love the Chargers in

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<v Speaker 1>our first episode on Tuesday at plus seven. By late

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<v Speaker 1>Thursday it was at five and a half. I still

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<v Speaker 1>like the Chargers at five and a half. I like

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<v Speaker 1>them a little bit less, just because you're not getting

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<v Speaker 1>the best of the number and you want to get

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<v Speaker 1>the best of the number in these scenarios. The key

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<v Speaker 1>here is that Patrick Mahomes historically does really well as

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<v Speaker 1>a favorite of less than three and a half is

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<v Speaker 1>under five hundred. As a favorite of more than three

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<v Speaker 1>and a half, it's hard to go on the road.

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<v Speaker 1>The Chiefs have not been winning by big numbers, and

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<v Speaker 1>even against the Jags, I liked the Jags last week

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<v Speaker 1>plus nine and a half. They missed two field goals, right,

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<v Speaker 1>so even then the score is not indicative of what

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<v Speaker 1>happened on the field. The Chargers are going to be

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<v Speaker 1>the right side here. I'm going to take the Eagles

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<v Speaker 1>minus six and a half of the Colts, so I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're overplaying the emotional elevation of the Colts for

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<v Speaker 1>Jeff Saturday. Dan Campbell briefly was mister Magic in Miami.

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<v Speaker 1>Philadelphia is a good team that played like crap and

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<v Speaker 1>could not get the ball back in the first half.

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<v Speaker 1>They're a much better team. We still have an MVP

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<v Speaker 1>candidate quarterback, better O line and D line played. You

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<v Speaker 1>see the Eagles picked up some interior D lineman this week.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the Culture a bad team. I know they're

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<v Speaker 1>a favorite, but I like the Eagles to blow them out.

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<v Speaker 1>Sharper Square. There's a reason why the Eagles had to

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<v Speaker 1>pick up defensive line help. There's a reason why the

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<v Speaker 1>Commanders controlled the line of scrimmage for something like forty minutes.

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<v Speaker 1>It's because the Eagles defensive line is missing. Jordan Davis

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<v Speaker 1>and Fletcher Cox had to play seventy plays, and he

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<v Speaker 1>was admitting in the middle of the league he was

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<v Speaker 1>feeling it a little bit. Incomes in Damakan Sue, who

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<v Speaker 1>really who hasn't played this year. So now you're signing

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<v Speaker 1>a guy off the street who's kind of got some

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<v Speaker 1>tread on him and has past his prime, way past

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<v Speaker 1>his prime, and plugging him in, hoping that you're going

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<v Speaker 1>to play better against an offensive line that can be

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<v Speaker 1>equal to what Washington just did with a significantly better

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<v Speaker 1>running back who's finally healthy. So I was playing the

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<v Speaker 1>emotional residence of Jeff Saturday coming in. I'm playing the

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<v Speaker 1>fact the Colts just have a better offensive line and

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<v Speaker 1>have a running game that I think can beat up

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<v Speaker 1>on the Eagles defensively. So you gotta take the Colts here.

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<v Speaker 1>And this line's been coming down like it was at

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<v Speaker 1>eight and a half. It was at eight, it was

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<v Speaker 1>seven and a half, it was seven. I took it

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<v Speaker 1>at seven. I waited a little bit too long. It's

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<v Speaker 1>getting a little bit lower. Like you're alone on this one, Kylin.

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<v Speaker 1>The Wise guys like the Colts. I like the Cowboys

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<v Speaker 1>minus one and a half at the Vikings an exhausting,

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<v Speaker 1>wildly emotional game against Buffalo. Dallas had opportunity after opportunity

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<v Speaker 1>to beat Green Bay. They were controlling them at Lambeo

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<v Speaker 1>in the third quarter. Also, the left tackle for the Vikings,

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<v Speaker 1>who's been fantastic, could be hurt. Michael Parsons office, worst

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<v Speaker 1>game of the year. I take Dallas straight up to

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<v Speaker 1>beat Vikings. Sharper square, totally sharp. The Wise guys are

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<v Speaker 1>in love, in love with this game. And this is

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<v Speaker 1>like one of the biggest pros Joe's disparities that we

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<v Speaker 1>have on the board this week. When I'm talking about

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<v Speaker 1>pros Joe's I talk about tickets are the joes the

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<v Speaker 1>number of betting tickets ten dollars, fifteen dollars, twenty dollars

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<v Speaker 1>coming in on one side, and the money those are

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<v Speaker 1>the pros coming in on the other side. Huge disparity

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<v Speaker 1>in this game. Look, everyone says it. The Vikings have

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<v Speaker 1>been one of the luckiest teams this year. They're winning

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<v Speaker 1>in less than one score games. We saw it again

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<v Speaker 1>this past week. This past week, their collective win probability

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<v Speaker 1>in the game makes them the second luckiest winners in

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<v Speaker 1>the NFL since twenty fourteen. Number one, by the way

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<v Speaker 1>Miami Dolphins against the Baltimore Ravens earlier this year. This

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<v Speaker 1>is a mediocre team in every single respect. This is

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<v Speaker 1>a mediocre team in the Minnesota Vikings. Look at the

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<v Speaker 1>DVOA Cowboys are fourth Minnesota's seventeenth estimated wins. So if

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<v Speaker 1>you take away sort of the one score elements and

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<v Speaker 1>you just look at the overall stats, Dallas should have

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<v Speaker 1>seven point seven wins. Minnesota should have four point five wins.

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<v Speaker 1>Yards per play on offense Minnesota's sixteenth yards per play

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<v Speaker 1>allowed their twenty eighth. This is Dallas. Every single wise

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<v Speaker 1>guy will tell you Dallas should be favored by three

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<v Speaker 1>in this game. Okay, another game I liked. The Jets

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<v Speaker 1>are able to get a rush with four people. If

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<v Speaker 1>you look at Mac Jones's numbers, they are regressing badly.

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<v Speaker 1>He is now no better than Zach Wilson on six

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<v Speaker 1>or seven vital stats. If the numbers three and a

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<v Speaker 1>half and what I think will be a very low

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<v Speaker 1>scoring game between two very good defensive coaches, that's just

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<v Speaker 1>too much. The weather could be choppy. New England just

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't score a lot and the Jets don't allow you

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<v Speaker 1>to score a lot. They discombobulated the Packers at Lambeau.

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<v Speaker 1>If I get three and a half, I would take

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<v Speaker 1>the Jets. That just seems again low scoring Jets front

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<v Speaker 1>real pressure on Mac Jones, who is acknowledged this year

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<v Speaker 1>has been a struggle for him with no offensive coordinator.

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<v Speaker 1>Jets plus three and a half sharper square. The flip

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<v Speaker 1>side is that what is it? Three weeks ago the

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<v Speaker 1>Jets and the Patriots played in New York, New Jersey.

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<v Speaker 1>The Patriots were three point favorites in that game. They

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<v Speaker 1>ended up winning by five. So three weeks later, after

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<v Speaker 1>a big Jets win, against the Bills. The Patriots now

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<v Speaker 1>go home and they are three point favorites again. So

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<v Speaker 1>you're telling me, in those three weeks with one win

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<v Speaker 1>that is dynamic against the Jets Bills team that might

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<v Speaker 1>not be as good as we thought it was. The

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<v Speaker 1>Patriots are all of a sudden still just three point favorites.

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<v Speaker 1>So that three point edge that you get by playing

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<v Speaker 1>at home is washed away in three weeks. That is

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<v Speaker 1>a massive, massive adjustment. The Patriots are the wise guys

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<v Speaker 1>side here. The Patriots have been betting. The wise guys

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<v Speaker 1>have been betting the Patriots. They bet him at three.

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<v Speaker 1>It's why it's going up to three and a half.

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<v Speaker 1>I would still take it at three and a half.

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<v Speaker 1>I might even take it at four. I think the

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<v Speaker 1>Patriots Mac Jones might be complaining, but their running game

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<v Speaker 1>is doing really well. And I am not actually as

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<v Speaker 1>big a hater on Matt Patricia running that offense as

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<v Speaker 1>other people have been. I think he's kind of figured

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<v Speaker 1>something out. So of the wise guys, they like the Patriots.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, I'm gonna take the Raiders plus two and

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<v Speaker 1>a half at Denver off a bye. Denver is awful.

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<v Speaker 1>Could not get into the red zone. The Raiders are

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<v Speaker 1>in six one possession losses, They're in games, they have

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<v Speaker 1>a legitimate quarterback, they have a functional coach. I can't

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<v Speaker 1>Denver can't be a favorite over anybody. Can you imagine

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<v Speaker 1>coming in off a bye week and you can't get

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<v Speaker 1>into the red zone again, the Titan team missing five starters.

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<v Speaker 1>The Raiders are the better team. This goes to my

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<v Speaker 1>Arizona Seattle situation, or twice Seattle got points. Seattle is

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<v Speaker 1>a better team. The Raiders are the better team than Denver.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course I'm taking point sharper square, So yeah, the

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<v Speaker 1>Raiders are the better team. The wise guys will be

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<v Speaker 1>betting the Raiders. It's a really interesting game because when

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<v Speaker 1>these two teams met earlier in the season, you had

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<v Speaker 1>almost an entirely different lineup for the Denver Broncos. You

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<v Speaker 1>won't have Randy Gregory in this game. You had him

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<v Speaker 1>in that game. You won't have Bradley Chubb in this game.

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<v Speaker 1>You had him in that game. You're not gonna have

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<v Speaker 1>kJ Hamler you had him in that game. Jerry Judy

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<v Speaker 1>potentially injured. You have a lot of injuries on the

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<v Speaker 1>offensive line, and as we know, this offense is terrible. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>The last time a team was last in scoring offense

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<v Speaker 1>and first in scoring defense nineteen forty six. I think

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<v Speaker 1>everyone saw the stat this week. If the Broncos had

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<v Speaker 1>scored more than seventeen points in any of their games

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<v Speaker 1>this year, they'd be eight and one. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>you're getting the right side in the Raiders, all right.

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<v Speaker 1>We always finished with two things. I ask you about

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<v Speaker 1>a game that I'm not going to bet you can

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<v Speaker 1>potentially talk me into it. Bears plush three at the

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<v Speaker 1>Falcons Chicago would have been my side. I thought they

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<v Speaker 1>outplayed Detroit, but Atlanta can take the ball away from

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<v Speaker 1>you with a run game. In Justin Fields, who's a

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<v Speaker 1>little heavy legged now because they're depending on them a lot,

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<v Speaker 1>how would you play it? So I like the Bears

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<v Speaker 1>in this game, but I'm waiting to see if it

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<v Speaker 1>gets back to three and a half. It was at

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<v Speaker 1>three and a half. I think if you can get there,

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<v Speaker 1>I'd probably play the Bears at a field goal. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a pass for me, but honestly, the Bears the last

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<v Speaker 1>few weeks have been offensive. Juggernai right, And this is

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<v Speaker 1>the one thing that Justin Fields has shown other than

0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:07.800
<v Speaker 1>his legs. When he's not being pressured, he's a pretty

0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:11.680
<v Speaker 1>good passer. And right now the Falcons can't get any

0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:14.000
<v Speaker 1>pressure on the quarterback, the league's worst pressure rate, and

0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:18.520
<v Speaker 1>their secondary is still shorthanded. Meanwhile, their offense has been

0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:21.439
<v Speaker 1>fading a little bit, marks mariotas sort of becoming who

0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.840
<v Speaker 1>we thought he would be. And so are the Falcons

0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:26.520
<v Speaker 1>going to be able to score enough to keep up

0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:30.480
<v Speaker 1>with the Bears. They're both incredibly bad defenses. The Bears offense,

0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:32.199
<v Speaker 1>to me, is a little more potent, and I think

0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:34.600
<v Speaker 1>Justin Fields is a better quarterback. So I'm just hoping

0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:36.720
<v Speaker 1>that the number as we get closer to the game

0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:39.680
<v Speaker 1>gets back up to three and a half. Finally, in

0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:42.280
<v Speaker 1>Sharper Square, Chad Millman, give me a game I haven't

0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:45.720
<v Speaker 1>brought up that you think is a gem. Well, look,

0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:49.680
<v Speaker 1>you you brought up the Chargers, which I was surprised

0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:52.079
<v Speaker 1>and pleasantly surprised that you brought them up. You threw

0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:54.720
<v Speaker 1>the Broncos at me, which we hadn't even talked about,

0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:56.880
<v Speaker 1>and sort of when I start to get word of

0:13:56.920 --> 0:14:00.760
<v Speaker 1>what you might be interested in, So the other game

0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:04.120
<v Speaker 1>that is interesting to me, Let me see if I

0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:07.120
<v Speaker 1>can convince you with this, because I am. Last week

0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:10.800
<v Speaker 1>we talked about the Niners and the Chargers, and I

0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:13.480
<v Speaker 1>told you I was making an executive decision. The Wise

0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:16.400
<v Speaker 1>guys were really all over the Niners. I loved the

0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:19.200
<v Speaker 1>Chargers in this spot, right, I'm going to do the

0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:24.080
<v Speaker 1>same thing this week, the Steelers and the Bengals. The

0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:28.200
<v Speaker 1>Wise guys love the Steelers. They love the t. J.

0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:30.800
<v Speaker 1>Watter Is back, They love Mike Tomlin as a home dog.

0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:34.000
<v Speaker 1>They are impressed by their performance last week. So are

0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:38.040
<v Speaker 1>we both love the Steelers last week, this line has

0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:40.840
<v Speaker 1>moved from five and a half down to five to

0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:42.920
<v Speaker 1>four and a half to four to three and a half.

0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:46.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm taking the Bengals, right. I think I've got the

0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:50.960
<v Speaker 1>better quarterback. I've got the better team. I've got a

0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:54.000
<v Speaker 1>team that one last week, coming off the by with

0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:58.600
<v Speaker 1>a new quarterback. They're a little bit lower emotionally. I

0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:02.280
<v Speaker 1>feel like this is a really good spot for the

0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:05.960
<v Speaker 1>Bengals to take another leaf forward in their quest to

0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 1>get back to the playoffs. Also, the Steelers off a

0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:11.200
<v Speaker 1>bye beat the Saints in a short week, so Kenny

0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:15.440
<v Speaker 1>Pickett had extra days to prepare. Now Kenny is the

0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:20.080
<v Speaker 1>quarterback with fewer days to prepare against the significantly better quarterback,

0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:24.560
<v Speaker 1>so Burrow does at three. I would take them. These

0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:28.480
<v Speaker 1>divisional rivalry games are close, but pick it now goes

0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:31.720
<v Speaker 1>from having that advantage of extra prep to facing a

0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:35.480
<v Speaker 1>significantly better quarterback that has the advantage over him. It

0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:38.560
<v Speaker 1>does feel like the Bengals of the side. It does

0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:40.320
<v Speaker 1>feel like the Bengals of the side. I will tell you,

0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:42.120
<v Speaker 1>I don't know that it's going to get to three.

0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:44.840
<v Speaker 1>I hope it does. I took it at three and

0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:48.000
<v Speaker 1>a half because I'm starting to see numbers out there

0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:50.120
<v Speaker 1>where it could go back to be four before it

0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:52.240
<v Speaker 1>goes back down to three. So I took it at

0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:53.880
<v Speaker 1>three and a half. I might have rushed. I got

0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:56.800
<v Speaker 1>a little antsy. I don't know. Sometimes I get impatient,

0:15:57.000 --> 0:16:01.080
<v Speaker 1>but it'll be interesting. Look when we do the podcast,

0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:02.640
<v Speaker 1>when we do the favorites, when Simon and I do

0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:05.560
<v Speaker 1>the favorites, we will have one bet every week that

0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:07.760
<v Speaker 1>we call our big balls better the week. It's the

0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:11.040
<v Speaker 1>bet that nobody else is making that feels kind of ugly.

0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 1>And we were debating this week between the Chargers and

0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:21.280
<v Speaker 1>the Bengals, and we ultimately went with the Bengals. All right, Melburn,

0:16:21.320 --> 0:16:23.160
<v Speaker 1>good stuff. I'm trying to bounce back. This week is

0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:27.360
<v Speaker 1>always all outs provided by FanDuel. Thanks Buddy Good to

0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:47.560
<v Speaker 1>see a man the volume. Make sure to check out

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<v Speaker 1>the dram On Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into

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<v Speaker 1>the Volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports.

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<v Speaker 1>Unique perspective understands behind the rope, also chops up with

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<v Speaker 1>guests like Gary Payton's, Zach Levine Tracy McGrady. Make sure

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<v Speaker 1>download The Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcasts,

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<v Speaker 1>only on the Volume podcast Network. Make every moment more

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