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Speaker 1: I didn't have the best week, but I felt most
Speaker 1: of my games were go either way games. I mean,
Speaker 1: I lost that Bears game, but I still thought I
Speaker 1: was on the right side. Chad Millman CCO Action Network,
Speaker 1: All odds provided by FanDuel, So it's a bounce back week.
Speaker 1: Didn't love all the lines. There's a lot of plus
Speaker 1: three or minus three, and I think the numbers are right.
Speaker 1: So as we venture into Sharper Square on a Friday morning,
Speaker 1: I'll start with one of those games. Texans getting three
Speaker 1: or three and a half. The Texans have been in
Speaker 1: most of their games. Washington short week comes off a
Speaker 1: highly emotional win where they played nearly perfect football. We
Speaker 1: tend to get a little hyperbolic if a team looks
Speaker 1: great on a standalone game, Texans at home getting a
Speaker 1: field goal or more. I'd take that side. Go look
Speaker 1: at their results they've been in games Sharper Square Sharp
Speaker 1: on Sharp. This was immediately bet. I bet it at
Speaker 1: plus three. Unfortunately I bet it too early. It went
Speaker 1: up to three and a half. The wise guys have
Speaker 1: now come back and taking it down back to three.
Speaker 1: There might be a couple of three and a half's
Speaker 1: out there. If you can find a three and a half,
Speaker 1: take it. Three is still the right side for me.
Speaker 1: It's a huge pros Joe's game. About eighty percent of
Speaker 1: the money coming in on the Texans and about fifty
Speaker 1: eight percent of the money coming in on the Commanders.
Speaker 1: The Texans, you mentioned it, they outplayed the Giants. Look
Speaker 1: they averaged six yards per play against against the Giants.
Speaker 1: They completely outplayed them. There's massive Washington inflation. After beating
Speaker 1: Philly on Monday night, this was the first game that
Speaker 1: I bet Tuesday morning, looked at the lines, saw the
Speaker 1: Texans at plus three. I was worried it was going
Speaker 1: to go to two and a half. I was worried
Speaker 1: the wise guys would nail it through Week ten the
Speaker 1: Texans have been the unluckiest NFL team parar Luck Rankings,
Speaker 1: which quantifies a lot of different metrics that basically say
Speaker 1: this team will regress back to the mean. They have
Speaker 1: been incredibly unlucky against the Giants. Two red zone turnovers,
Speaker 1: two red zone field goals did them in. You're getting
Speaker 1: a couple of points of value based on the perception
Speaker 1: right now. Take the Texans. Another game that jumped out
Speaker 1: to me later today, Chargers plus five and a half
Speaker 1: at home. Keenan Allen Mike Williams should both play offensive
Speaker 1: lines in better shape. You know, the Chiefs have not
Speaker 1: necessarily been a great cover team. They win, they don't
Speaker 1: necessarily cover. It feels like a make or break game
Speaker 1: for the Chargers. This one feels obvious to me. Five
Speaker 1: and a half Chargers Sharper square. Yeah, so this one
Speaker 1: opened at seven and this one again. You know, we
Speaker 1: do that segment Sharp Calls on the Favorites me and
Speaker 1: my bff, Simon Hunter, where the wise guys will call
Speaker 1: us in the middle of the week after hearing the
Speaker 1: first episode of the week. We get to the second episode.
Speaker 1: They're telling us what they liked and what they didn't
Speaker 1: like about what we said we love the Chargers in
Speaker 1: our first episode on Tuesday at plus seven. By late
Speaker 1: Thursday it was at five and a half. I still
Speaker 1: like the Chargers at five and a half. I like
Speaker 1: them a little bit less, just because you're not getting
Speaker 1: the best of the number and you want to get
Speaker 1: the best of the number in these scenarios. The key
Speaker 1: here is that Patrick Mahomes historically does really well as
Speaker 1: a favorite of less than three and a half is
Speaker 1: under five hundred. As a favorite of more than three
Speaker 1: and a half, it's hard to go on the road.
Speaker 1: The Chiefs have not been winning by big numbers, and
Speaker 1: even against the Jags, I liked the Jags last week
Speaker 1: plus nine and a half. They missed two field goals, right,
Speaker 1: so even then the score is not indicative of what
Speaker 1: happened on the field. The Chargers are going to be
Speaker 1: the right side here. I'm going to take the Eagles
Speaker 1: minus six and a half of the Colts, so I
Speaker 1: think we're overplaying the emotional elevation of the Colts for
Speaker 1: Jeff Saturday. Dan Campbell briefly was mister Magic in Miami.
Speaker 1: Philadelphia is a good team that played like crap and
Speaker 1: could not get the ball back in the first half.
Speaker 1: They're a much better team. We still have an MVP
Speaker 1: candidate quarterback, better O line and D line played. You
Speaker 1: see the Eagles picked up some interior D lineman this week.
Speaker 1: I think the Culture a bad team. I know they're
Speaker 1: a favorite, but I like the Eagles to blow them out.
Speaker 1: Sharper Square. There's a reason why the Eagles had to
Speaker 1: pick up defensive line help. There's a reason why the
Speaker 1: Commanders controlled the line of scrimmage for something like forty minutes.
Speaker 1: It's because the Eagles defensive line is missing. Jordan Davis
Speaker 1: and Fletcher Cox had to play seventy plays, and he
Speaker 1: was admitting in the middle of the league he was
Speaker 1: feeling it a little bit. Incomes in Damakan Sue, who
Speaker 1: really who hasn't played this year. So now you're signing
Speaker 1: a guy off the street who's kind of got some
Speaker 1: tread on him and has past his prime, way past
Speaker 1: his prime, and plugging him in, hoping that you're going
Speaker 1: to play better against an offensive line that can be
Speaker 1: equal to what Washington just did with a significantly better
Speaker 1: running back who's finally healthy. So I was playing the
Speaker 1: emotional residence of Jeff Saturday coming in. I'm playing the
Speaker 1: fact the Colts just have a better offensive line and
Speaker 1: have a running game that I think can beat up
Speaker 1: on the Eagles defensively. So you gotta take the Colts here.
Speaker 1: And this line's been coming down like it was at
Speaker 1: eight and a half. It was at eight, it was
Speaker 1: seven and a half, it was seven. I took it
Speaker 1: at seven. I waited a little bit too long. It's
Speaker 1: getting a little bit lower. Like you're alone on this one, Kylin.
Speaker 1: The Wise guys like the Colts. I like the Cowboys
Speaker 1: minus one and a half at the Vikings an exhausting,
Speaker 1: wildly emotional game against Buffalo. Dallas had opportunity after opportunity
Speaker 1: to beat Green Bay. They were controlling them at Lambeo
Speaker 1: in the third quarter. Also, the left tackle for the Vikings,
Speaker 1: who's been fantastic, could be hurt. Michael Parsons office, worst
Speaker 1: game of the year. I take Dallas straight up to
Speaker 1: beat Vikings. Sharper square, totally sharp. The Wise guys are
Speaker 1: in love, in love with this game. And this is
Speaker 1: like one of the biggest pros Joe's disparities that we
Speaker 1: have on the board this week. When I'm talking about
Speaker 1: pros Joe's I talk about tickets are the joes the
Speaker 1: number of betting tickets ten dollars, fifteen dollars, twenty dollars
Speaker 1: coming in on one side, and the money those are
Speaker 1: the pros coming in on the other side. Huge disparity
Speaker 1: in this game. Look, everyone says it. The Vikings have
Speaker 1: been one of the luckiest teams this year. They're winning
Speaker 1: in less than one score games. We saw it again
Speaker 1: this past week. This past week, their collective win probability
Speaker 1: in the game makes them the second luckiest winners in
Speaker 1: the NFL since twenty fourteen. Number one, by the way
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins against the Baltimore Ravens earlier this year. This
Speaker 1: is a mediocre team in every single respect. This is
Speaker 1: a mediocre team in the Minnesota Vikings. Look at the
Speaker 1: DVOA Cowboys are fourth Minnesota's seventeenth estimated wins. So if
Speaker 1: you take away sort of the one score elements and
Speaker 1: you just look at the overall stats, Dallas should have
Speaker 1: seven point seven wins. Minnesota should have four point five wins.
Speaker 1: Yards per play on offense Minnesota's sixteenth yards per play
Speaker 1: allowed their twenty eighth. This is Dallas. Every single wise
Speaker 1: guy will tell you Dallas should be favored by three
Speaker 1: in this game. Okay, another game I liked. The Jets
Speaker 1: are able to get a rush with four people. If
Speaker 1: you look at Mac Jones's numbers, they are regressing badly.
Speaker 1: He is now no better than Zach Wilson on six
Speaker 1: or seven vital stats. If the numbers three and a
Speaker 1: half and what I think will be a very low
Speaker 1: scoring game between two very good defensive coaches, that's just
Speaker 1: too much. The weather could be choppy. New England just
Speaker 1: doesn't score a lot and the Jets don't allow you
Speaker 1: to score a lot. They discombobulated the Packers at Lambeau.
Speaker 1: If I get three and a half, I would take
Speaker 1: the Jets. That just seems again low scoring Jets front
Speaker 1: real pressure on Mac Jones, who is acknowledged this year
Speaker 1: has been a struggle for him with no offensive coordinator.
Speaker 1: Jets plus three and a half sharper square. The flip
Speaker 1: side is that what is it? Three weeks ago the
Speaker 1: Jets and the Patriots played in New York, New Jersey.
Speaker 1: The Patriots were three point favorites in that game. They
Speaker 1: ended up winning by five. So three weeks later, after
Speaker 1: a big Jets win, against the Bills. The Patriots now
Speaker 1: go home and they are three point favorites again. So
Speaker 1: you're telling me, in those three weeks with one win
Speaker 1: that is dynamic against the Jets Bills team that might
Speaker 1: not be as good as we thought it was. The
Speaker 1: Patriots are all of a sudden still just three point favorites.
Speaker 1: So that three point edge that you get by playing
Speaker 1: at home is washed away in three weeks. That is
Speaker 1: a massive, massive adjustment. The Patriots are the wise guys
Speaker 1: side here. The Patriots have been betting. The wise guys
Speaker 1: have been betting the Patriots. They bet him at three.
Speaker 1: It's why it's going up to three and a half.
Speaker 1: I would still take it at three and a half.
Speaker 1: I might even take it at four. I think the
Speaker 1: Patriots Mac Jones might be complaining, but their running game
Speaker 1: is doing really well. And I am not actually as
Speaker 1: big a hater on Matt Patricia running that offense as
Speaker 1: other people have been. I think he's kind of figured
Speaker 1: something out. So of the wise guys, they like the Patriots.
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna take the Raiders plus two and
Speaker 1: a half at Denver off a bye. Denver is awful.
Speaker 1: Could not get into the red zone. The Raiders are
Speaker 1: in six one possession losses, They're in games, they have
Speaker 1: a legitimate quarterback, they have a functional coach. I can't
Speaker 1: Denver can't be a favorite over anybody. Can you imagine
Speaker 1: coming in off a bye week and you can't get
Speaker 1: into the red zone again, the Titan team missing five starters.
Speaker 1: The Raiders are the better team. This goes to my
Speaker 1: Arizona Seattle situation, or twice Seattle got points. Seattle is
Speaker 1: a better team. The Raiders are the better team than Denver.
Speaker 1: Of course I'm taking point sharper square, So yeah, the
Speaker 1: Raiders are the better team. The wise guys will be
Speaker 1: betting the Raiders. It's a really interesting game because when
Speaker 1: these two teams met earlier in the season, you had
Speaker 1: almost an entirely different lineup for the Denver Broncos. You
Speaker 1: won't have Randy Gregory in this game. You had him
Speaker 1: in that game. You won't have Bradley Chubb in this game.
Speaker 1: You had him in that game. You're not gonna have
Speaker 1: kJ Hamler you had him in that game. Jerry Judy
Speaker 1: potentially injured. You have a lot of injuries on the
Speaker 1: offensive line, and as we know, this offense is terrible. Right.
Speaker 1: The last time a team was last in scoring offense
Speaker 1: and first in scoring defense nineteen forty six. I think
Speaker 1: everyone saw the stat this week. If the Broncos had
Speaker 1: scored more than seventeen points in any of their games
Speaker 1: this year, they'd be eight and one. So I think
Speaker 1: you're getting the right side in the Raiders, all right.
Speaker 1: We always finished with two things. I ask you about
Speaker 1: a game that I'm not going to bet you can
Speaker 1: potentially talk me into it. Bears plush three at the
Speaker 1: Falcons Chicago would have been my side. I thought they
Speaker 1: outplayed Detroit, but Atlanta can take the ball away from
Speaker 1: you with a run game. In Justin Fields, who's a
Speaker 1: little heavy legged now because they're depending on them a lot,
Speaker 1: how would you play it? So I like the Bears
Speaker 1: in this game, but I'm waiting to see if it
Speaker 1: gets back to three and a half. It was at
Speaker 1: three and a half. I think if you can get there,
Speaker 1: I'd probably play the Bears at a field goal. It's
Speaker 1: a pass for me, but honestly, the Bears the last
Speaker 1: few weeks have been offensive. Juggernai right, And this is
Speaker 1: the one thing that Justin Fields has shown other than
Speaker 1: his legs. When he's not being pressured, he's a pretty
Speaker 1: good passer. And right now the Falcons can't get any
Speaker 1: pressure on the quarterback, the league's worst pressure rate, and
Speaker 1: their secondary is still shorthanded. Meanwhile, their offense has been
Speaker 1: fading a little bit, marks mariotas sort of becoming who
Speaker 1: we thought he would be. And so are the Falcons
Speaker 1: going to be able to score enough to keep up
Speaker 1: with the Bears. They're both incredibly bad defenses. The Bears offense,
Speaker 1: to me, is a little more potent, and I think
Speaker 1: Justin Fields is a better quarterback. So I'm just hoping
Speaker 1: that the number as we get closer to the game
Speaker 1: gets back up to three and a half. Finally, in
Speaker 1: Sharper Square, Chad Millman, give me a game I haven't
Speaker 1: brought up that you think is a gem. Well, look,
Speaker 1: you you brought up the Chargers, which I was surprised
Speaker 1: and pleasantly surprised that you brought them up. You threw
Speaker 1: the Broncos at me, which we hadn't even talked about,
Speaker 1: and sort of when I start to get word of
Speaker 1: what you might be interested in, So the other game
Speaker 1: that is interesting to me, Let me see if I
Speaker 1: can convince you with this, because I am. Last week
Speaker 1: we talked about the Niners and the Chargers, and I
Speaker 1: told you I was making an executive decision. The Wise
Speaker 1: guys were really all over the Niners. I loved the
Speaker 1: Chargers in this spot, right, I'm going to do the
Speaker 1: same thing this week, the Steelers and the Bengals. The
Speaker 1: Wise guys love the Steelers. They love the t. J.
Speaker 1: Watter Is back, They love Mike Tomlin as a home dog.
Speaker 1: They are impressed by their performance last week. So are
Speaker 1: we both love the Steelers last week, this line has
Speaker 1: moved from five and a half down to five to
Speaker 1: four and a half to four to three and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Bengals, right. I think I've got the
Speaker 1: better quarterback. I've got the better team. I've got a
Speaker 1: team that one last week, coming off the by with
Speaker 1: a new quarterback. They're a little bit lower emotionally. I
Speaker 1: feel like this is a really good spot for the
Speaker 1: Bengals to take another leaf forward in their quest to
Speaker 1: get back to the playoffs. Also, the Steelers off a
Speaker 1: bye beat the Saints in a short week, so Kenny
Speaker 1: Pickett had extra days to prepare. Now Kenny is the
Speaker 1: quarterback with fewer days to prepare against the significantly better quarterback,
Speaker 1: so Burrow does at three. I would take them. These
Speaker 1: divisional rivalry games are close, but pick it now goes
Speaker 1: from having that advantage of extra prep to facing a
Speaker 1: significantly better quarterback that has the advantage over him. It
Speaker 1: does feel like the Bengals of the side. It does
Speaker 1: feel like the Bengals of the side. I will tell you,
Speaker 1: I don't know that it's going to get to three.
Speaker 1: I hope it does. I took it at three and
Speaker 1: a half because I'm starting to see numbers out there
Speaker 1: where it could go back to be four before it
Speaker 1: goes back down to three. So I took it at
Speaker 1: three and a half. I might have rushed. I got
Speaker 1: a little antsy. I don't know. Sometimes I get impatient,
Speaker 1: but it'll be interesting. Look when we do the podcast,
Speaker 1: when we do the favorites, when Simon and I do
Speaker 1: the favorites, we will have one bet every week that
Speaker 1: we call our big balls better the week. It's the
Speaker 1: bet that nobody else is making that feels kind of ugly.
Speaker 1: And we were debating this week between the Chargers and
Speaker 1: the Bengals, and we ultimately went with the Bengals. All right, Melburn,
Speaker 1: good stuff. I'm trying to bounce back. This week is
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