1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,240 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we 3 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 2: go from throwing out, we're saying it's a cash touchdown. 4 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 2: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they 5 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:24,079 Speaker 2: go to Swayne. That's incredible being bank small. I like 6 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 2: to make money. All right, this is the ultimate combine 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 2: and you want to fall and we are underway. 8 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. 9 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 4: We are presented by Bett MGM, the King of sports books. 10 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 3: I'm your host, Brendan glas Sheen. 11 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:47,199 Speaker 4: Today's episode NFL Week seven Best Bets. Our normal rotating 12 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 4: hosts are joining us. 13 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:52,560 Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson, Luke Swayin AKA Vegas refunded. Our rotating third 14 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 3: chair this. 15 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 4: Week is being held down by Grant Nieffer, who joins 16 00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 4: the show. We've got best Bets coming momentary. Folks want 17 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 4: to remind all of you that, of course we have 18 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 4: our NFL coverage on the Action Network Podcast. Reminder, hockey 19 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:10,040 Speaker 4: betting season has already begun in the NBA regular. 20 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:11,759 Speaker 3: Season is about to tip off the Action Network. 21 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:15,039 Speaker 4: As you covered with NHL and NBA betting podcast Line 22 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 4: Change and Buckets both have new episodes out every week 23 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 4: all season long. So if you want to bet pucks 24 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 4: or hoops in the months ahead, check out line change 25 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:29,320 Speaker 4: and buckets wherever you listen to your podcasts. We went 26 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 4: five and four in week six, so we're crawling our 27 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:35,119 Speaker 4: way back to a five hundred mark. When you include 28 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 4: the look aheadlines, we are twenty eight and thirty one 29 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 4: for the season. You can find Brandon, Grant, and Luke 30 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:44,320 Speaker 4: individually in the Action Network app, the free to download 31 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 4: award winning Action Network app if they add anything else, 32 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 4: which I'm sure they will, but we're interested in the 33 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 4: best bets for week seven. Brandon, why don't you kick 34 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 4: us off? What do you got for your first one? 35 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 2: Boy? I gotta say growth ugly slate this week. Be 36 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 2: careful out there. I to get rated with some picks today, 37 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 2: So I'm gonna start out with a big favorite, a 38 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 2: division favorite, not really a sort of pick I would 39 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,919 Speaker 2: normally do, but give me the Seahawks minus seven and 40 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,239 Speaker 2: a half at home against the Cardinals. To me, this 41 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 2: is just a read on. I don't think the market 42 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 2: has caught up to how good Seattle has been, and honestly, 43 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 2: I don't think they've caught up to how much Arizona 44 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 2: has faded after that start. So Arizona. They look good early, right, 45 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 2: we didn't expect them to. We thought Arizona maybe would 46 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 2: go oh to seventeen, Like every year we do this, 47 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 2: who's the worst team in football? They got the least 48 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 2: talent of everyone, and then they're pretty good against the 49 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,519 Speaker 2: Giants and the Commanders, and then they beat the Cowboys, which, 50 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 2: by the way, theory I've heard float it out there, 51 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 2: who's the coach or the Cardinals? Jonathan Gannon? What division 52 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 2: did he come from? Last year? Hey, look who all 53 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 2: the teams were that he was pretty good against the Giants, 54 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 2: the Commanders, the Cowboys? They left the division? What happened 55 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:58,239 Speaker 2: since then? After that Cowboys win, when we all were like, oh, okay, 56 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,919 Speaker 2: I guess maybe the Cardinals are okay. Nope. Three straight 57 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 2: losses by fourteen or more. That offense that was looking 58 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 2: pretty good has been just getting a little bit worse 59 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 2: each week. Defense was never going to start with their 60 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 2: second to last in Dboa. James Connor missing on offense 61 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 2: I think has been big too. So I think Arizona 62 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 2: is back to really being what they were all along. 63 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 2: They're just not a very good team. Seattle has been 64 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:25,399 Speaker 2: pretty good. They're top ten or so offensively on both 65 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 2: running and passing. I think they can kind of have 66 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 2: their way with this bad Cardinals defense. And I'm not 67 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 2: sure if I totally believe it yet, but Seattle's defense 68 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 2: looking pretty good lately last three weeks. Small sample, but 69 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 2: Seattle is number one in EPA per play defensively, Cardinals 70 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 2: by the way thirty second, So that is this opposite 71 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 2: as you get Seattle. I think it's been a little unlucky. 72 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 2: They should have beaten Cincinnati last week, and they just 73 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 2: kind of blew some chances in the red zone. They've 74 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 2: been bottom five in the red zone. They're bottom of 75 00:03:56,440 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 2: five on third down defensively. Those are numbers that to 76 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 2: be not sticky, kind of even out over time. So 77 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 2: that's another hint that maybe this team is a little 78 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 2: better than they have looked. So I like the Seahawks. 79 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 2: They beat carolinup by double digits, they beat the Giants 80 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 2: by double digits. This line is exactly what it was 81 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 2: before the season, and I don't think I should be 82 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 2: I think Seattle's better than we thought. I think the 83 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 2: Cardinals are maybe a little worse than we thought. So 84 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 2: give me Seattle minus seven and a half. It's my 85 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 2: favorite teaser spot of the week also down to one 86 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 2: and a half if you want to tease them my 87 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 2: like Niners or Bills here, but I'll just take Seattle 88 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 2: outright minus seven and a half. 89 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 4: It reeks of a bounce back spot for them on 90 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 4: a lot of front So they're a little banged up offensively, 91 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 4: but a get right position no matter who's out there 92 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 4: personnel wise, to get back on the right track offensively. Luke, 93 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,919 Speaker 4: what's your first pick for the Best Bets episode Week seven? 94 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Seahawks as well minus 95 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:50,840 Speaker 1: seven and a half, and for a lot of the 96 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: same reasons Brandon. 97 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:55,279 Speaker 2: Did, which Dobbs is, they're just coming back down to earth. 98 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:57,720 Speaker 1: The first three weeks, Dobbs is, I think number nineteen 99 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: is success right in the last three weeks he's been 100 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 1: number twenty nine. The Cardinals defense is just ravaged right now. 101 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 1: Their only corner that ranks above forty five by PFF 102 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: right now is questionable. And if he doesn't go, which 103 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: it's a fifty to fifty shot, we're looking at the 104 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: secondary that if I listed their names, you would not 105 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 1: ever hear about them, and if they weren't playing this week, 106 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: he probably never would. 107 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 2: So it's just and Seatle should have won. 108 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: Last week they averaged five point four yards per play, 109 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 1: and since he averaged four, they just got pretty unlucky. 110 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: And now they're getting a Cardinals team that is definitely 111 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 1: trending in the wrong direction of Seattle's defense started off 112 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: pretty bad, but with Witherspoon and now Jamal Adams, they 113 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:46,919 Speaker 1: are ranked number one and the ranked number one against 114 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: the run as well. And if you're telling me that 115 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 1: without James Connor, this team has scored fifteen points in 116 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 1: the last seven quarters. So you don't have James Connor, 117 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,160 Speaker 1: you're going against the number one run d Currently you're 118 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:03,279 Speaker 1: telling me Josh Dobbs, who is regressing to what he's 119 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 1: always been, has to beat me by seven a half points, 120 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: like I think there should be more like nine, maybe higher. 121 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: I will take the Seahawks all day, even though it 122 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 1: is division bounce back. Seattle's offense, it's just as good. 123 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: Like they're number two in success right on early downs 124 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 1: and the Cardinals are number thirty. If you look at 125 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 1: the two teams the Cardinals have faced on early down 126 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: success that are top half of the league, it is 127 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 1: the Niners in the Bengals and both of them stomp 128 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: them out. So I will go with Seattle minus seven 129 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: and a. 130 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 3: Half any chance. 131 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 4: I mean, of course we're recording on a thursday'd want 132 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 4: to get this sooner rather than later, right, I would 133 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 4: imagine is the chances gets to eight and a half? 134 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:42,160 Speaker 3: Possibly? 135 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it is somewhat of a dead zone. 136 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: I would say, I don't know who be betting the 137 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 1: Cardinals plus seven and a half. If they are, there's 138 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: probably something worth noting, like injury type stuff. But I mean, 139 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: this isn't going to go get at a ten range. 140 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 1: I don't know unless there's like something crazy Dobbs is out, 141 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:02,720 Speaker 1: like how much is he even worth at this point? 142 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 2: So I don't think this gets to minus seven, right, 143 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 2: So I don't know that you need to wait on Seattle. 144 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 2: If anything, I think it's gonna move up. So if 145 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:11,520 Speaker 2: you like Seattle, I think you just grab it now. Yeah, 146 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 2: and I would, especially if you're dealing with a teaser, 147 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 2: I would just grab it now. 148 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 3: No good point. 149 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 4: Also, the Kyler Murray back at practice, but looks like 150 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 4: they're gonna rev him up. Give it a couple of 151 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 4: weeks to get Murray ready to go so who knows 152 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 4: what kind of pressure you know, just from a narrative standpoint, 153 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 4: what kind of pressure that puts on Josh Dobbs to 154 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 4: knowing he's got Kyler coming up in the wings here, Grant, 155 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 4: we haven't heard from you yet. 156 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 3: Welcome back to the pie. What do you got for 157 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 3: your first pick? Week seven Best Bets? 158 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 5: So my first pick is going to be Cleveland, Indy. 159 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 5: I'm taking the under a forty one. To me, this 160 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 5: line is just too high. I mean, we look at 161 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 5: what Cleveland's done all season. They have been just outstanding 162 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 5: on the defensive end and kind of a napt on 163 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 5: the offensive end. Cleveland hasn't allowed much more than two 164 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 5: hundred yards to pretty much any team this season. I 165 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 5: know they did give up to fifteen last week to 166 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 5: the Niners, and gave up to over two hundred too 167 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 5: long ago to another team, but they're sitting at two 168 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 5: hundred yards allowed per game this season. They have not 169 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 5: hit the over at this number in any game this 170 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 5: season outside of Pittsburgh, where there was a pick six 171 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 5: there and a fumble return for a touchdown. So realistically, 172 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 5: they've given up seventeen twenty eight, three twenty six with 173 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 5: two defensive touchdowns and three points to opposing teams so 174 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 5: far this season. PJ Walker decent chancey ends up starting 175 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 5: this week. I don't know if it's gonna be him 176 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 5: and Watson. I still like this line regardless, but if 177 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 5: it is Walker, then most likely this line's going to 178 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 5: move down one or two points, and I think it 179 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 5: should moved down more than that Indy underrated defense Minshew 180 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 5: coming in, They're probably going to go at a little 181 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 5: bit lesser pace. Currently, both these teams are sitting top 182 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 5: five in terms of pace of play, or top six 183 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 5: rather in terms of plays per game so far this season. 184 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:01,199 Speaker 5: I expect that to downgrade with a different quarterback. Overall, 185 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,199 Speaker 5: this is just a spot where best even of the 186 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 5: league underrated defense on the other side, two quarterbacks that 187 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 5: aren't really NFL caliber quarterbacks are at least starting quarterbacks, 188 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 5: and a spot where I could see this game realistically 189 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,960 Speaker 5: both teams ending up in single digit points here. I 190 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 5: don't understand why this line is so high. It start 191 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 5: out forty two and a half, it's down to forty one. 192 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 5: I think it's going to move to maybe even three 193 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 5: points by game ten this weekend, So I'm rolling with 194 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 5: the under here. I really like it. 195 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 4: Just over one thousand yards allowed by the Browns through 196 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 4: five games. That is the best stretch in a five 197 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 4: game sample through the first five games since nineteen seventy one. 198 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 3: It's a historically great defensive start here. 199 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 4: Brandon, you gave this out as a hot read on 200 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 4: Monday morning Sunday night at forty two and a half. 201 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 4: Would you like to echo and any of the sentiments 202 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 4: from Grant. 203 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll honestly just like goo all of that. You 204 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 2: basically made the same case I died, Grant, So I'm 205 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 2: with you step for step on this one. You got 206 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 2: probably two backup quarterbacks here. Yeah, defenses have the advantage 207 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 2: both ways. Kevin Stefanski. When the total is under forty 208 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 2: four unders and Stefanski games are thirteen and six sixty 209 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 2: eight percent. And also the last two seasons games that 210 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 2: have a home underdog unders are sixty one percent, and 211 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:20,679 Speaker 2: this year that's been up to sixty eight percent. So 212 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 2: even some trends that go the right direction, I think 213 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 2: this one's kind of ugly. And even even if one 214 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 2: team does get going, you might still hit the under 215 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:31,559 Speaker 2: because the other one might not, and we might get 216 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:33,959 Speaker 2: like a twenty seven to three or something like that, 217 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 2: and we still get the under that way. So I 218 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 2: definitely like this one. 219 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 4: To Shaun Watson slated to practice in some capacity on Thursday, 220 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 4: as we record on a Thursday, so just monitor that. 221 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 4: I would imagine maybe if Watson plays, maybe it might 222 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 4: it might not make a difference, It might already be 223 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,080 Speaker 4: baked in that Watson is not playing. If he is playing, 224 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 4: maybe you get a better number to take the under 225 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 4: if the market changes. The Action Network podcast is presented 226 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 4: by Bett MGM. Use bonus code Action when signing up 227 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 4: to get up to fifteen hundred dollars paid back in 228 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 4: bonus bets if your first bet loses. For new users 229 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 4: in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 230 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. 231 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 4: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older. 232 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 4: Gambling problem called one eight hundred. 233 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 3: Gambler Brandon your second pick for Week seven. 234 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go to Florida and I'm gonna take 235 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 2: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Falcons. But just the 236 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 2: first half. Give me the Bucks minus one, just in 237 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 2: the first half, and I gotta be honest, this is 238 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:40,719 Speaker 2: just straight up a bet against Desmon red Air. Yeah, 239 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 2: you all called me out on that. Before the season. 240 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 2: I was high in Atlanta coming into the year. I 241 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 2: made the whole case for why I like the Falcons 242 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 2: on our preseason pod without mentioning the quarterback. Woe is me. 243 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 2: That did not go well for me. Desmond Raiders socks. 244 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:57,319 Speaker 2: He looks so bad. He's been terrible early in games. 245 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 2: He's worse on the road. We finally got of that 246 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 2: fluky stat how he never lost a home game. That's 247 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 2: done after last week. They should have won. They more 248 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 2: than doubled Washington and yardage. They had three chances of 249 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 2: score in the final quarter. And ridder is like throwing 250 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 2: the ball eight yards over dude's head. You watch that 251 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 2: game and receivers are straight up quitting on routes like 252 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 2: mid play because they know the ball is not hitting them. 253 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 2: You see like slout shoulders, you see head down. I 254 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:26,200 Speaker 2: don't think that he has the trust of the coaching 255 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 2: staff anymore. That game. I thought the Falcons had a 256 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 2: bye this week, and I was like, all right, Ritter's done. 257 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 2: This is it. They got to make a change now. 258 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 2: No bye week for another month. So I'm gonna just 259 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 2: go ahead and play against Ritter right now. Falcons on 260 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 2: the road offensive DVA dead last in the NFL. Arthur Smith, buddy, 261 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 2: you let me down. How can you be so bad offensively? 262 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 2: First half offense Falcons are twenty ninth by DVA. They 263 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:57,320 Speaker 2: are burying themselves early early downs. First down, Falcons are 264 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 2: twenty seven. Buccaneers defense is number two two defense by DVOA. 265 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 2: So I think that's what we're gonna see is over 266 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 2: and over again. The Falcons just gonna run into the 267 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:09,839 Speaker 2: line like they do on first down. Fox run d 268 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 2: looked really good last week, and a bouncing back vite Veya. 269 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 2: They're gonna suddenly it's second and nine, Suddenly it's third 270 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 2: and six. Guess what, Desmond a ridder time. I'm happy 271 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 2: to bet against Desmond Raider. He sucks. Buccaneers defense is 272 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 2: the one good unit in this game. Honestly, I think 273 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 2: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can have a nice game too, 274 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 2: So why only first half? I'm so glad you asked 275 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 2: Number one. I think desen a Rider might get benched, 276 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 2: and I do not want to bet against Taylor Heineke. 277 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 2: And if it's bad enough early that I win the bet, 278 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 2: I'll just take my money and go home and Taylor 279 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 2: Heney can do whatever he wants, in fact, go ahead 280 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 2: and win the game. Buddy, I still got Falcon's future, 281 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:51,559 Speaker 2: so that'd be great. Number Two Desmond a ridder lifetime 282 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 2: in the NFL is oh and ten against the spread 283 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:58,079 Speaker 2: in the first half. Man has never covered a first 284 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 2: half spread. He's oh and ten by six and a 285 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 2: half points a game. Four times he has been a 286 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 2: first half underdog. Like here, here's the score of those 287 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 2: games at halftime fourteen three, fourteen three thirteen three seventeen zero. 288 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:14,439 Speaker 2: I'm gonna let you guess which side he was on 289 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 2: all those box first half minus one. 290 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 4: Okay, And to your credit in the preseason pods, you 291 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 4: did exactly what you're supposed to do. It didn't suit 292 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 4: your agenda to bring up Desmond Ritter, so you avoided 293 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 4: bringing him up. That's what you're supposed to do. So 294 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:29,080 Speaker 4: don't fall, you know, don't beat yourself up over that. 295 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 3: That's what you're supposed to do. And now it's it's 296 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 3: come back to haunt you. So you're being consistent and 297 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 3: you're admitting where you may have gone wrong. 298 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 2: But what, boy, does it suit my agenda to bring 299 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 2: him up now? 300 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 3: Exactly? Luke? Second one, what do you got? 301 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Lions plus three at Baltimore, 302 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 1: which the Lions are on the road in this game, 303 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: but the Ravens are actually had to travel this advantage, 304 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 1: and after the Cults Jacks game last week, I think 305 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 1: there's a lot of disbelief in the London travel disadvantage 306 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 1: and and I think it's. 307 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 3: Thank you Jaguars. 308 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 2: It's just a disadvantage. 309 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 1: Of the Ravens, like they got there late, like they 310 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: did a lot of different things in the. 311 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 2: Jaguars of course, where the Jacks are there for two weeks. 312 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 1: But the Ravens I travel disadvantage, and we just have 313 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 1: a Lions team that is on their second road game. 314 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 1: They didn't play as well, I want to say against 315 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 1: the Bucks, but the lines are just good. Like Dan 316 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 1: Campbell's trending towards being like the best coach ever against 317 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 1: the spread we've ever seen, Like the guy like he 318 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 1: just covers every single game, and like I make this 319 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: more of like one and a half. Like, so there's value, 320 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 1: there's not a ton of value. But the Ravens are 321 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: just consistently the games that they win are in the trenches, 322 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: and this is one game that they just don't have 323 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: that advantage where the lines do. It is potentially going 324 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 1: to be a win game. We've seen the total go 325 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: from I think forty eight and now it's at like 326 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 1: forty two with twenty mile prior wins, and I think 327 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: you want to default to the Ravens having that advantage 328 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: in the run game with Lamar, but like outside of Lamar, 329 00:15:59,160 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 1: like who do they have? 330 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 2: And then you got a Lion scene where Montgomery's out 331 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 2: that matters. 332 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: I believe in Gibbs. I believe in the Lions front five. 333 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 1: So the Lions a plus three, it's more of a 334 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 1: value player. I like the Ravens are plus three. I'd 335 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: probably be looking at them. I would never lay it 336 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 1: with the Lions, but this is just kind of you 337 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 1: just just continue to bet the Lions because you're covering 338 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: every single game. 339 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 4: Per our friend Evan Abrams, director of research at Action Network, 340 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 4: The Ravens will be the fourteenth team to return from 341 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 4: London without a bye week twelve of the previous thirteen 342 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 4: teams are either tied or trailing. 343 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 3: At some point in the fourth quarter. 344 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 4: The exception Brandon the Jaguars. Brandon, I have a feeling 345 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 4: where you're going with this. 346 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 3: You're going to chime in with the London trend or 347 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 3: something about it. 348 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, the London trend has been strong. I think there's 349 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 2: a good chance Colts aside, like even in that game 350 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 2: Gardner Minshew, I think fumbled on like the second play 351 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 2: of the game for the Colts and gave the Jags 352 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 2: an immedia touchdowns fourteen nothing like before you turn the 353 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 2: TV on. It happens like you can't. No trend stays 354 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 2: undefeated forever. So I'm not to throw the baby out 355 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,480 Speaker 2: with the bathwater in that one. I know the Lions 356 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 2: have a good chance to lead late or tire lead 357 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 2: in the fourth. Cared look the trend bounce back Giants 358 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 2: Bill Sunday Night. The Giants led to start the fourth quarter. 359 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:15,199 Speaker 2: So don't tell me the trend is nothing. But I 360 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 2: think to the Ravens defense maybe is a bit overrated here. 361 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 2: As good as they've been, they faced the thirtieth hardest 362 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:25,159 Speaker 2: offensive schedule so far, and the Lions are a different animal. 363 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:28,920 Speaker 2: Ben Johnson as Ben just lights out this season, It's 364 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 2: almost like a free seven points. I feel like every 365 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 2: week he dials up some like misdirection downfield touchdown where 366 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 2: Dud's just wide open. Every week, I feel like red 367 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 2: zone flips over and we get one of those plays. 368 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 2: So I like Lions. I was leaning to the team 369 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,920 Speaker 2: total over here. That was the trend that I've played 370 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 2: a lot of times with the post London thing. The 371 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 2: line moved, it was nineteen and a half, it's now 372 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:54,399 Speaker 2: twenty and a half. If you can get the nineteen 373 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 2: and a half, I like the over. They have scored 374 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 2: at least twenty points in twenty out of twenty three 375 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 2: games with Johnson as the coordinator. Here's the one reason 376 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 2: that stop besides that point, And I want to ask 377 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 2: you about this, Luke, because it threw me off a little. 378 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 2: We got the win, we got a road game, we 379 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,440 Speaker 2: got Jared Goff. I don't love that combo. GoF has 380 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,919 Speaker 2: not been great outdoors in the wind, and obviously that 381 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:20,120 Speaker 2: impacts the scoring for my offense too. Does that worry 382 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 2: you at all in this game? 383 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 1: I mean I've bet against that angle a couple of 384 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,239 Speaker 1: times this year and have lost, and they just they 385 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 1: just continue to prove every situational theory against the lines 386 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,400 Speaker 1: wrong where people are gonna say that the Lions really 387 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 1: haven't played anyone, the Ravens are due for positive regression. 388 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,120 Speaker 1: But in the end, like it is an outdoors game, 389 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 1: there is wind, but the Ravens offense hasn't looked like 390 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 1: it's norm like they might be like about to burst, 391 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:49,879 Speaker 1: but they just continue to Maybe it's coaching. I don't know, 392 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: Like there's just they just keep messing up, like whether 393 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 1: it's the red zone, it's just there's something about this 394 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: Ravens team that I'm just not seeing on like personally, 395 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 1: and it is very against the grain on how I 396 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: usually go. 397 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 2: But this week is tough, and this is just this. 398 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 1: Is just one that you're kind of just you're going 399 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 1: with Dan Campbell and this lines team that is defying 400 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 1: logic and taking them at plus three. 401 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, it sounds like you're the elephant in the room 402 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 4: is Todd Monkin and this new offense trying to make 403 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 4: Lamar more of a pocket passer and when the personnel 404 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 4: doesn't feel like up to speeds. 405 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 3: A Flowers has been good. 406 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 4: I think he's been their bright surprise and he was 407 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:29,880 Speaker 4: good scoring touchdowns last week. 408 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 3: He's been good, but probably what is what is what's 409 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:32,159 Speaker 3: making you? 410 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 1: He's been good, but it's kind of like Andrew's not 411 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:37,919 Speaker 1: being as good as we expected as somewhat offsetting that, 412 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 1: where like Mark Andrews is really he's kind of looked 413 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:44,359 Speaker 1: normal so far. Maybe and we're all it's only a 414 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:48,159 Speaker 1: week seven, so a lot can change. But Zay has 415 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 1: been great, but Andrews hasn't. 416 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 2: So who knows. 417 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,119 Speaker 4: Okay, okay, great, let's go back to you your second 418 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 4: pick for week seven. 419 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,440 Speaker 5: It's my second pick. I'm going with Keenan Allen over 420 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 5: seventy eight and a half for yards. To me, this 421 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,160 Speaker 5: line is tool and I don't think people realize how 422 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 5: involved Keenan Allen is now with Mike Williams Gunn and 423 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 5: I know we've seen before in the pass we've seen 424 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 5: massive outings. But so far on the season, fifty five 425 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 5: targets through five games. He's hit the over at this 426 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 5: number in four out of five games, with the one 427 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 5: game where he didn't hit the over. It is a 428 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,400 Speaker 5: game where Herbert got roughed up a little bit. They 429 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 5: got up to twenty four to zero or twenty four 430 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 5: to seven lead in the first half. Herbert only threw 431 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:30,880 Speaker 5: the ball twenty four times in that game, Ken Allen 432 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 5: still had five targets, and it was just a spot 433 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 5: where they weren't really throwing in the second half because 434 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 5: of Herbert being injured. But outside of that game, eleven 435 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 5: twenty ten to nine targets going up against the Chiefs, 436 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 5: Chiefs do have a solid pass y. While there is 437 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 5: the chance of the Chargers trying and run on the 438 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,160 Speaker 5: ball the ball on the ground more, I think they're 439 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 5: going to still air it out a decent amount a 440 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 5: lot of short and intermediate stuff that Keenan Allen should 441 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 5: be heavily involved in, even against a tough defense. Keen 442 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 5: Allen's a good enough route runner where he should be 443 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 5: pretty much matchup proof in this spot. Being a five 444 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,679 Speaker 5: and a half point dog here, Chargers probably gonna have 445 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 5: to throw it late in the game. I know that 446 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 5: the Chiefs offense hasn't looked great so far through the season, 447 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 5: but they're a good enough team where they should still 448 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 5: be up in the spot divisional game. Keen Out I 449 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 5: think is going to be in for a big game 450 00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 5: here and he has over one hundred yards per game 451 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 5: on the season. Seventy eight and a half is just 452 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 5: two level line. I haven't rejected for over ninety in 453 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:23,440 Speaker 5: this spot. 454 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 4: He had, so he didn't play in the Week two 455 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,400 Speaker 4: matchup with Kansas City last year and that second meeting 456 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 4: in November five catches on eight targets ninety four yards. 457 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 4: Turns out he wasn't the leading receiver in either game. 458 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 4: Williams played the Week two game one hundred and thirteen 459 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 4: yards against Kansas City last year. Josh Palmer won o 460 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 4: six and two touchdowns in the second matchup. But yeah, 461 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 4: I mean they were the Chargers. They had a touchdown lead. 462 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 3: In both of those games. 463 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 4: So I know you're not talking side here, but this 464 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:49,919 Speaker 4: has the makings of just a back and forth. And 465 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 4: god knows, the Chargers could go up ten and they 466 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 4: throw the ball all over the yard and you could 467 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 4: still get there early. And even if they're not in 468 00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 4: a trailing game script, they could still very well get 469 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:03,040 Speaker 4: there from your vantage point. So I like it seventy 470 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 4: eight and a half yards over Keenan Allen against the Chiefs. Brandon, 471 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:07,639 Speaker 4: let's go back to you for your third and final 472 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 4: pick for Week seven. 473 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 2: All right, I warned you this was a gross slate. 474 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 2: I'm going to Giants Commanders. I'm getting creative here. Give 475 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,479 Speaker 2: me Giants Commanders one score game and I'll tell you 476 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 2: how we get there. It's a minus one fourteen, so 477 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 2: I'm going to pick an either team to win by 478 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,920 Speaker 2: eight or last year, so Commanders are a short road favorite. 479 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 2: This total has dropped down below forty now it's another 480 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 2: one of those windy games that we're probably expecting high wins, 481 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 2: Ugly offense, if any offense at all. Giants, I believe 482 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 2: I've not scored a touchdown for three straight games now 483 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,600 Speaker 2: for the first time since nineteen seventy six, which is 484 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,000 Speaker 2: a real stat somehow. Probably need an eight touchdown here 485 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,680 Speaker 2: to keep this close. But both teams offense just struggling 486 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,200 Speaker 2: to do that much. Both offensive lines are bad Giants, 487 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 2: like every day you read about another guy going on 488 00:22:55,880 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 2: the injured reserve with their offensive line. Both quarterbacks are 489 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,400 Speaker 2: really bad under pressure, and we've got a bad Giants 490 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 2: line against a very good Commanders D line gonna rush 491 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:08,639 Speaker 2: the passer a lot, and we know Martindale and the 492 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 2: Giants are gonna come after them. So I just think 493 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:14,639 Speaker 2: we're gonna get this very like sloppy, low scoring, close, 494 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 2: goofy ugly sort of game. Normally that would be like, 495 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 2: all right, well two unpredictable, just stay away. Who wants 496 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,919 Speaker 2: to care about Washington in New York? But normally for me, 497 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 2: that's kind of a sign to say, okay, how about 498 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 2: a one score game. How about one of those where 499 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:32,680 Speaker 2: we played both sides a little bit. These teams when 500 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 2: they meet up, obviously division rivalry, six of the last 501 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,119 Speaker 2: seven times they played have finished within one score, including 502 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 2: two overtime games and a tie. Last year they tied. 503 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 2: Remember that we got the Giants one tie on the season. 504 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 2: Washington has played four to one score games out of 505 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,399 Speaker 2: six this year, and the Giants this was their specialty 506 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,200 Speaker 2: a year ago. They had thirteen one score games last 507 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:58,119 Speaker 2: season sixty eight percent of their games. So if you 508 00:23:58,200 --> 00:23:59,720 Speaker 2: really want to get goofy here, if you want a 509 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 2: little lottery ticket plus seventeen fifty to go to overtime, 510 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 2: seventy to one to end in a tie, I can't 511 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 2: tell you the masses in our favor there are. Nick Giffen, 512 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 2: or overtime Guy, says that that overtime price is about fair, 513 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 2: but I'm just gonna play the one score game. I 514 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:16,960 Speaker 2: do want eight either way. So the way to get 515 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 2: this is at most books you probably just have to 516 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,119 Speaker 2: build the same game parlay. So you do Giants plus 517 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 2: eight and a half, you do Commanders plus eight and 518 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,360 Speaker 2: a half, get them on both sides. If you want 519 00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,639 Speaker 2: to give a point or last, you go seven and 520 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 2: a half, six and a half, like, depending on how 521 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 2: close you want to cut it, You're gonna get a 522 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,440 Speaker 2: little more profit that way. But Brian Dable gets a 523 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 2: little weird with the two sometimes. So I'm gonna take 524 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 2: the eight and a half, play it safe here and 525 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 2: just take a one score game Giants Commanders minus one fourteen. 526 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 2: I don't really care who wins. I don't think it 527 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 2: matters to anybody, but I just want to stay close 528 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:47,680 Speaker 2: and ugly. 529 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 4: Speaking of inept offenses, bad offensive lines, bad quarterback play, Luke, 530 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 4: would you like to explain yourself on betting the Patriots 531 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 4: again last week? And while you're not betting the Patriots 532 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,119 Speaker 4: and what might your last pick be? Before you give 533 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 4: your last pick, you can talk about the Patriots and 534 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 4: why you. 535 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 2: Don't My god, I mean it. 536 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:06,520 Speaker 1: Was the fact, Yeah, it was a very bad beat, 537 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: losing that on the safety where like the play before, 538 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,399 Speaker 1: like I think it was gonna be like intentional grounding 539 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,159 Speaker 1: to the safety and it was like, oh god, I 540 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,520 Speaker 1: hadn't even like thought about the safety like coming into play, 541 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 1: and then he gets sacked and I don't think they 542 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,480 Speaker 1: really deserved it in the first place. But yeah, they're 543 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:26,399 Speaker 1: blacklisted for now, like good I mean. And it's funny 544 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,280 Speaker 1: because like the tune on like all my like buddies 545 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,920 Speaker 1: back home there, Patriots fans are like, oh, losses are good, 546 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,120 Speaker 1: but then like you hear from them the next week 547 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 1: like they're so bad. They're so bad, Like they're not 548 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:41,119 Speaker 1: truly rooting for losses like I actually am, Like just lose, 549 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:43,680 Speaker 1: Like losing is good enough, is enough. 550 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 2: I could go on for It's just I just give us. 551 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 3: Your last pick. I just had to pick on you 552 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:50,240 Speaker 3: there for help. 553 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Eagles minus two and a 554 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 1: half hosting the Dolphins on Sunday Night Football, which this 555 00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:00,119 Speaker 1: one is just you have a Dolphins team out an 556 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 1: all time high, with a Eagles team coming off a 557 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: surprising loss of the Jets and the biggest advantage, and 558 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,399 Speaker 1: it is a pretty big advantage is the Eagles in 559 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 1: the trenches, so offensive line, defensive line, they can dominate 560 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 1: the Dolphins in this record where you have an Eagles 561 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,920 Speaker 1: team number one in the run right now, with the 562 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,880 Speaker 1: Eagles going against a Dolphins defense. 563 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:25,399 Speaker 2: That is number thirty, it's just no, there's just so 564 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 2: many angles. 565 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 1: And I just really really liked the Eagles this week, 566 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:33,200 Speaker 1: and the matchups favor the Eagles. Where Philly hasn't faced 567 00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 1: a d worse than eighteen against the run, they're still 568 00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 1: number one. Miami hasn't faced a top but only two 569 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:44,119 Speaker 1: top offenses of Miami is faced is the Bills and 570 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 1: the Chargers, and they put up thirty four and forty 571 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,080 Speaker 1: eight on them. So this is really just setting up 572 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,119 Speaker 1: like the Miami Bills game in Buffalo a couple of 573 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 1: weeks ago where they just got boat raced out of Buffalo. 574 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,120 Speaker 1: I just have a list, and I don't even I could 575 00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 1: just read it off, but like, I just really like 576 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,879 Speaker 1: Philly and number four in pressure rate, they blitz at 577 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 1: a blow average rate. The only team Miami's face that 578 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,840 Speaker 1: has an above average pressure rate so far this year 579 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 1: is the Bills. And what did the Bills do? So 580 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,200 Speaker 1: there's just a huge advantage in the trenches. The team 581 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: coming off a surprising loss, going against a team that 582 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,880 Speaker 1: has just beat down poor teams and gotten beaten by 583 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:25,639 Speaker 1: good teams, and the Dolphins are legit. They are definitely legit. 584 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,920 Speaker 1: This just isn't the spot or the matchup for them 585 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:32,199 Speaker 1: that they're going to be able to fly it like 586 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:34,680 Speaker 1: fly like they have. So I'll take the Eagles minus 587 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:35,120 Speaker 1: two and a half. 588 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, and you could call when they went down fourteen 589 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:39,480 Speaker 4: to nothing to Carolina maybe a look ahead. 590 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:39,640 Speaker 3: Now. 591 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 4: Of course Miami turned it around and they covered kind 592 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 4: of barely, but yeah, I mean you chose their kind 593 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,359 Speaker 4: of let Bryce Young cook them up a little bit. 594 00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:51,440 Speaker 4: There any concerns about Jalen Carter being a limited participant 595 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 4: and if he plays or not, you still. 596 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:54,000 Speaker 3: Like the rest of their depth. 597 00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:54,920 Speaker 2: I think Carter. 598 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 1: I think if I was to bet on it, I 599 00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 1: would be betting on Carter playing, and I'd be betting 600 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 1: on slave, which who even knows. Maybe they like saved 601 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 1: him last week for this game, but I wouldn't. I 602 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:06,880 Speaker 1: don't think they would do that. But I think they're 603 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 1: both trending. They've been pricing limited Yeah, tomorrow, of course 604 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,119 Speaker 1: would be important, but I would be more concerned to 605 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 1: Sligh than Jalen Cardron. Even Lane Johnson is turning in 606 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:18,679 Speaker 1: the right direction, So if they get all three of 607 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,879 Speaker 1: those guys back, would be big, specifically Lane Johnson, but 608 00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,440 Speaker 1: I would say Jalen Carter is. 609 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 2: Probably it would be great. But if he's out, I 610 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 2: wouldn't have not given this bet out. 611 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,600 Speaker 4: Okay, very good, and we've got one more from Sunday night. Grant, 612 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 4: take us home your third best bet for week seven. 613 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I'm kind of picky backing off that I'm 614 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 5: going with the over on passing yards. I know that 615 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 5: the Eagles are a bit of a run first team 616 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,240 Speaker 5: the last few weeks though, two hundred and eighty yards 617 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 5: from Hurts three hundred, three hundred nineteen two seventy seven 618 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 5: over the last four weeks, and they had some tough matchmen. 619 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 5: They're going up against the Jets in Tampa Bay, but Hurts, 620 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 5: I think, is going to throw the ball decent amount here. 621 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 5: They're gonna have to keep up with Miami while I immy, 622 00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:59,959 Speaker 5: I don't think is as good as some people think 623 00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:01,720 Speaker 5: they are. And they're still a great team, but I 624 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:03,200 Speaker 5: don't think they're as good as a lot of people 625 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 5: think because they just mentioned that, like they haven't had 626 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 5: the toughest schedule. I mean Carolina, New York, Denver Patriots Chargers, 627 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 5: was a close game there, Buffalo, they absolutely got stomped. 628 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 5: Like it's a spot where they've kind of really beat 629 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:18,719 Speaker 5: up on bad teams. And we look at it. Their 630 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 5: overall pass defense currently sitting at giving up I think 631 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,960 Speaker 5: two hundred and thirty yards per game. Well, they're always 632 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 5: down a ton, so that should be a little bit higher, 633 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:33,200 Speaker 5: but or the higher than that. But Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, 634 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 5: Russell Wilson, Mac Jones, they have not faced good quarterbacks 635 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,720 Speaker 5: outside of Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. Herbert didn't do 636 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 5: a ton in the first game because they put two 637 00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 5: hundred yards on the ground there. Just a weird game there, 638 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,680 Speaker 5: and Josh Allen went for over three hundred. I think 639 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:49,520 Speaker 5: Hurt's going to throw the ball decent amount here. I 640 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 5: think they're going to try and keep up with them. 641 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 5: I think if they get a lead, they're going to 642 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 5: try and keep that lead and extend that lead more 643 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 5: and more. I know that Philly generally has a propensity 644 00:29:58,360 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 5: to run the ball later on the game, when they 645 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,440 Speaker 5: at a decent lead, try and just control the clock. 646 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:04,840 Speaker 5: But in this spot, I think they're going to try 647 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 5: and put up more points. I think jaldl Hurts is 648 00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 5: going to be throwing the ball a lot. I haven't 649 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:10,480 Speaker 5: projected for over two hundred and seventy yards in the 650 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 5: spot here. I think this line's way too low. It's 651 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 5: probably gonna move eight yards by game time here. So 652 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 5: I'm getting in now because I think there's a lot 653 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:19,520 Speaker 5: of value on this. 654 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 2: I like it. 655 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, if you shop around to them seeing a two 656 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,840 Speaker 4: fifty one and a half out there in the market. 657 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,760 Speaker 4: So there you go, Jalen Hurts over passing yards, gentlemen, 658 00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:31,719 Speaker 4: More memories are made when you're there for live NFL 659 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,680 Speaker 4: action and when you need tickets, our friends at Ticketmaster 660 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 4: have got you covered. Is the official marketplace of the NFL. 661 00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,800 Speaker 4: Ticket Master gives you more ways to find your perfect seat. 662 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,240 Speaker 4: Their interactive seat map gives you three hundred and sixty 663 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 4: degree previews of your section to make sure you have 664 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,240 Speaker 4: the best view of those pivotal plays and if your 665 00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 4: plans change. Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to sell or 666 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:56,200 Speaker 4: transfer your tickets. Plus mobile tickets make getting in on 667 00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:59,000 Speaker 4: game day a breeze, and you can even customize your 668 00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,400 Speaker 4: ticket Master app to rep your team's colors. Find tickets 669 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 4: today at ticketmaster dot com. Slash NFL, as we always do, 670 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,680 Speaker 4: we wrap with Brandon Anderson's look ahead spot. 671 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 3: We're going to week eight. Brandon, what jumps out to you? 672 00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 2: Now? For next week? Guys? I figured out why the 673 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,200 Speaker 2: slate is so gross this week? No Texans gotta have 674 00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,960 Speaker 2: the Texans. The Texans around bie weeks. I can't. We 675 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,280 Speaker 2: can't go whole podcast without doing a Texans pay give 676 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 2: me the Texans minus three in Carolina on Week eight. 677 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 2: But both these teams are in a bye week. But 678 00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 2: during the bye a week, Thomas Brown's gonna start calling 679 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 2: plays for Carolina. So we have a first time ever 680 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:40,560 Speaker 2: play caller debuting against the Tamico Ryans defense that has 681 00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:42,920 Speaker 2: an extra a week to prep and get ready for. 682 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,520 Speaker 2: Like what DJ Shark and Adam Thielen, who really scary 683 00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 2: offense to prepare for. So I don't love that for Carolina, 684 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 2: Like half of their defense in the hospital right now. 685 00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,280 Speaker 2: So I don't think they're going to magically get healthy. Houston, 686 00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,360 Speaker 2: I think is getting healthy. This bye week comes at 687 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 2: just the right time. Drew Scruggs probably comes back and 688 00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:06,160 Speaker 2: makes his debut. We might get the actual whole offensive 689 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,240 Speaker 2: line for the first time all season. Tavier Thomas, their 690 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 2: nickel corner, has been really good this year. I think 691 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,680 Speaker 2: he's probably back finally hopefully tanked Dell the rookie receiver. 692 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 2: I think Houston is getting healthy here and they're looking good. 693 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,880 Speaker 2: Like we kind of somewhat got close to giving up 694 00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:24,640 Speaker 2: on this team after the first couple of weeks when 695 00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 2: all those injuries came. Okay, we didn't. I never gave 696 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 2: up on them, but you didn't look good. It didn't 697 00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:31,880 Speaker 2: look good through two weeks. Here's the last four weeks. 698 00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,560 Speaker 2: You look by just EPA per play, just week three 699 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,800 Speaker 2: through six. Here's the last number one Kansas City Chiefs. 700 00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:41,040 Speaker 2: Then you got the Niners, the Bills, the Lions, the Dolphins, 701 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,480 Speaker 2: all the teams at the top of everyone's power rankings. 702 00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,960 Speaker 2: Right number six, Houston Texans. They're three and one with 703 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 2: a plus forty nine point differential during that period. Panthers 704 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,200 Speaker 2: are bottom three, of course, because that's where they are. 705 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,320 Speaker 2: They're owing six this season by twelve points a game. 706 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 2: They have not covered this line at all this season. 707 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,680 Speaker 2: I only have one game even within seven points, So 708 00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,880 Speaker 2: normally I would probably not take a look ahead here 709 00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,280 Speaker 2: with both teams on a bye because we usually look ahead. 710 00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:10,880 Speaker 2: I'm looking at what's gonna happen this weekend? How's it move? 711 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:14,360 Speaker 2: But these lines are moving earlier and earlier, like I'm 712 00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,200 Speaker 2: already seeing when I look at look ahead Wednesday till 713 00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:20,480 Speaker 2: when we record Thursday, lines for next week are already 714 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 2: moving in between in that period. And I'm already seeing 715 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:24,400 Speaker 2: a three and a half here a sound book. So 716 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,280 Speaker 2: give me Texans Island minus three, give me the key 717 00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:30,000 Speaker 2: number before it rises. I don't think we're gonna see 718 00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,120 Speaker 2: this for too long, so I'll take Houston at the three. 719 00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,880 Speaker 3: We led with the old Island in Seattle, and we 720 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:41,600 Speaker 3: wrap with the New Island in Houston. Very good. That's 721 00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:42,040 Speaker 3: gonna do it? 722 00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 4: Here on the Action Network podcast, our NFL Week seven 723 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,680 Speaker 4: Best Bets episode presented by Bett MGM. If you missed 724 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:52,120 Speaker 4: the full NFL betting preview with Ray Bond and Stuckey 725 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,800 Speaker 4: the Sunday six Pack, That episode is out now, and 726 00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:58,080 Speaker 4: you can also tune in Monday morning for our weekly 727 00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:02,880 Speaker 4: recap episodes that come out with Joe Gallant and Devin Abrams. 728 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,440 Speaker 4: Brandon will be on there for his hot read. Don't 729 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,680 Speaker 4: forget Folks to download the free award winning Action Network 730 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,640 Speaker 4: app to see all of the guys picks and you 731 00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:15,640 Speaker 4: can track your own for Luke Brandon and Grant Brendon Glasheen. 732 00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:17,400 Speaker 3: Thanks so much for tuning in. Everybody. 733 00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:18,880 Speaker 4: We will talk to you again next week on the 734 00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,920 Speaker 4: Action Network podcast Presented by BETTMGM. 735 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:42,120 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 736 00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,960 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 737 00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,040 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler