Speaker 1: Derek first and goal from the one yard line and
Speaker 1: into the end zone for the touchdown. Goes to a
Speaker 1: Mere White, good protection going from the end zone, often
Speaker 1: making the grab Trey Tucker for the touchdown. It's coming passes, reach,
Speaker 1: store and hold into the touchdown by Jacoby Myers. Second
Speaker 1: and seventh, well the action wide wide, wide open touchdown.
Speaker 1: Michael Mayer taking the snap will be Brandon Folding. He'll
Speaker 1: keep it, he'll run and he'll run all the way
Speaker 1: to the end zone. First out from the twenty yard line.
Speaker 1: O'Connell to the end zone, touchdown raiders second in goal,
Speaker 1: Myers is gonna throw touchdown. Devontae Adams hauls it in
Speaker 1: no huddle here stick look him, look out from behind,
Speaker 1: and the ball is out. It's gonna be ruled. It's
Speaker 1: it's alive and going to the end zone right now.
Speaker 1: For what is ruled a touchdown is John Jenkins, You're
Speaker 1: second down and thirteen. Oh baby, unbelievable, Jack Jones.
Speaker 2: They do it again.
Speaker 1: I mean, there are bad dreams and there are crazy
Speaker 1: bad dreams. And for the Chargers spend that kind of
Speaker 1: a night.
Speaker 2: It was that kind of a night. Eight touchdowns. We
Speaker 2: usually don't go so long on the highlights leading in,
Speaker 2: But we just couldn't choose which of the eight Raiders
Speaker 2: eight touchdowns he wanted to choose. They finish it out
Speaker 2: sixty three to twenty one. It was the first game
Speaker 2: first team since the nineteen fifty Rams to have eight
Speaker 2: different players score a touchdown. We had a three hundred
Speaker 2: and twenty plus pound man John Jenkins running in for
Speaker 2: forty four yards and that wasn't even the best defensive
Speaker 2: touchdown of the night. Jack Jones got that. I am
Speaker 2: Greg Rosenthal. We're gonna break down this game a little.
Speaker 2: We'll talk a little big picture Chargers Raiders as well
Speaker 2: after this, and I will give you my MVP ladder
Speaker 2: with some great statistical help because I'm going to be
Speaker 2: helped tonight by Sam Schwartztein. If you watch Prime Vision
Speaker 2: on Amazon, you've seen Sam's head just pop up in
Speaker 2: the corner all night. He's just like a part of
Speaker 2: the family dinner at our house. Just Sam just popping up.
Speaker 2: Oh there he is with some good stats. He is
Speaker 2: there in Vegas tonight. Sam. Welcome, Thank you, thanks so much.
Speaker 2: Greg and I, you know we were talking about it.
Speaker 2: We talk about the big man touchdown. That was by
Speaker 2: far my favorite touchdown. I want to know what your
Speaker 2: favorite touchdown was.
Speaker 3: You know, I got to hop in early with some analytics,
Speaker 3: some lytics as we call them here, that every time
Speaker 3: we get a big dog touchdown at thick six, if
Speaker 3: you will shout out to my gold junior, we got
Speaker 3: to know how fast he was moving. He was moving
Speaker 3: at fourteen point nine to five hmmm miles per hour.
Speaker 3: That would have been the fourth fastest by a guy over
Speaker 3: three twenty plus, who's pushing more than three bills in
Speaker 3: the fourth fast in the EDGs era since twenty sixteen.
Speaker 2: Great job bringing the numbers right off the bat. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I wanted Al to get a little more excited there.
Speaker 2: But I think from his angle and I could tell
Speaker 2: from our angle too, was like what happened on that play?
Speaker 2: Was that actually a touchdown? It was just one of
Speaker 2: those nights. It was forty two nothing at halftime, the
Speaker 2: second largest shutout or the second largest margin, tied for
Speaker 2: the second largest in the history of the NFL. The
Speaker 2: only thing that was bigger than that game I remember
Speaker 2: well Tom Brady in the snow taking it out on
Speaker 2: Jeff Fisher, who had been honking about Bill belichicking the
Speaker 2: Patriots forty five nothing at halftime. I think that was
Speaker 2: back in two thousand and nine, And yet that wasn't
Speaker 2: the most embarrassing moment in the game. After it was
Speaker 2: forty two to nothing, the next three touchdowns for the
Speaker 2: Raiders were thrown by Jacoby Myers, ran in by John Jenkins,
Speaker 2: and then returned by Jack Jones, the former Patriot who
Speaker 2: made to me one of the most fun plays of
Speaker 2: the year, reading one of Easton Stick's pass, catching it
Speaker 2: one handed, reading it so well that the pass was
Speaker 2: behind him and going in. And at that moment, Sam,
Speaker 2: they have sixty three points and we got pretty much
Speaker 2: the whole fourth quarter to go, and I'm thinking history
Speaker 2: that we're going to be talking history. Were you rooting
Speaker 2: for seventy three or more? Or were you feeling too
Speaker 2: bad for the Chargers at that point.
Speaker 3: I just wanted to root for score Gami at that point,
Speaker 3: I'm completely honest. We were now got one. You got one,
Speaker 3: and we got one, and we got one. So you know,
Speaker 3: you always have to have something to root for, you know,
Speaker 3: whether that's the spread or the over, everything's already hit.
Speaker 3: You got to root for something and so score Gomi's
Speaker 3: what we were rooting for at the end of the game.
Speaker 2: I mean, I would assume once you get over sixty three,
Speaker 2: most everything's a scorer. Got me the.
Speaker 3: Sixty six fourteen it happened before. Okay, you know we
Speaker 3: were nervous. We were nervous if team wanted to settle
Speaker 3: for a field goal, we were nervous.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wanted it because I did feel for Brandon
Speaker 2: Stale and we'll get to him quickly. Let's before we
Speaker 2: just kind of move the bigger picture stuff and some
Speaker 2: more fun stuff. I do want to give Raiders credit.
Speaker 2: You know, they've played with Antonio Pierce now for six weeks.
Speaker 2: They're three and three. Their defensive numbers are good. I
Speaker 2: think they're giving up something like fifteen sixteen points a
Speaker 2: game now with Antonio Pierce, so he's a defensive coach.
Speaker 2: They've had some good defensive games for the most part.
Speaker 2: They're three and three. They kept going after it in
Speaker 2: this game. They were throwing not nothing crazy, but they
Speaker 2: were thrown with the lead, which I think that's respecting
Speaker 2: your opponent. To me, it's fine, you don't need to
Speaker 2: just lay down. But I think he knows, Hey, look,
Speaker 2: I have four games. If I do something historical, if
Speaker 2: I if I'm showing Mark Davis on national television what
Speaker 2: I can do, him and Champ Kelly, their interim GM
Speaker 2: are fighting to try to stay there, and I think
Speaker 2: they have a chance. I don't pretend that I have
Speaker 2: inside information on this, but I think Mark Davis said publicly,
Speaker 2: I'm going to give these guys a champce and gonna
Speaker 2: make an evaluation from everything they do. If they've had
Speaker 2: six games, they still have three fairly difficult games left.
Speaker 2: But if they happen to play well in those three games,
Speaker 2: maybe beat the Chiefs you go to and one something
Speaker 2: like that, I think they'll have a chance. So I
Speaker 2: do think there is some meaning, bigger picture to take
Speaker 2: out of this game other than it was just a
Speaker 2: fun night in Vegas.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you talked about passing throughout the game. In that
Speaker 3: two when it was a two possession game at the start,
Speaker 3: there was a plus nine point two percent pass right
Speaker 3: over expected. That's a mixt gen stats metric looking at
Speaker 3: on every down and distance, everywhere all the players line up,
Speaker 3: do we expect the team to pass or not? And
Speaker 3: so that was one of the highest ones of the
Speaker 3: season at that point, so it was really.
Speaker 2: Wet the whole game, or at what point in the game.
Speaker 3: Started an two possession game, So yeah, that was where
Speaker 3: it's like it really started to kind of show, like, hey,
Speaker 3: is this guy taking the pot up the gas. It's
Speaker 3: kind of getting out of hand already. It was the
Speaker 3: first quarter, and so when we're looking at pass right
Speaker 3: over expected, it's like, yeah, most teams in similar scenarios
Speaker 3: would not have passed, and he's ten percent nearly ten
Speaker 3: percent higher. So you know, I think I think both
Speaker 3: this team is a unique team, right, you know in
Speaker 3: O'Connell fourth round pick, not what really you know, the
Speaker 3: guy you'd expect to take you to the next level
Speaker 3: everyone got when they got blanked last week by Brian Floor.
Speaker 3: As people don't realize Brian Floor is in the Vikings
Speaker 3: is really the most unique defense in the NFL right now.
Speaker 3: He recovered zero or drop eight, So that's really hard
Speaker 3: for young quarterbacks to take advantage of, especially if you
Speaker 3: can't run the ball. So good, good, good game for them.
Speaker 3: I don't think as much as last game didn't tell
Speaker 3: us who this coaching staff was, this game also doesn't
Speaker 3: tell us who this coaching staff was I'm not gonna say,
Speaker 3: you know, maybe there's somewhere in the middle. They're definitely
Speaker 3: not either either team that we've seen so far weeks.
Speaker 2: No, but I love the response. It's Aidan O'Connell. You
Speaker 2: know you mentioned mid round rookie. I think it's a
Speaker 2: quid himself. Well, overall, he looks like he's going to
Speaker 2: have a career. Been better than average, I would say
Speaker 2: for a rookie quarterback, and he's a mid round guy.
Speaker 2: Two hundred and forty eight yards, four touchdowns, twenty for
Speaker 2: thirty four. But I let Pierce was asked by you know,
Speaker 2: your colleague Kaylee Hartung out a halftime, what's the attitude here,
Speaker 2: and he said, like to not let your foot off
Speaker 2: the pedal. And I love that. To me, that's very Raiders.
Speaker 2: That's something Mark Davis will appreciate. That something Al Davis
Speaker 2: will appreciate. And the crowd was appreciating it. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's the most expensive seat in sports. For two five
Speaker 2: and eight teams put on a show. They were booing
Speaker 2: Antonio Pierce when they didn't go it for it on
Speaker 2: fourth and short in the second half, which I loved.
Speaker 2: He did not he punted a couple times on fourth
Speaker 2: and short, so he did not get carried away. But
Speaker 2: I love it. I think, look, these guys are evaluated
Speaker 2: on statistics. Everyone is playing for their next contract, not
Speaker 2: just the coach, but DeVante Adams wants to have a
Speaker 2: nice night, a big night for once. He gets one
Speaker 2: on one. Eight catches Zamier Whites making one of his
Speaker 2: maybe his first career start, certainly the most he's been
Speaker 2: used in a long time. Everyone wants to ball out
Speaker 2: Jack Jones trying to keep his career going. Everyone wants
Speaker 2: to bull out what are you gonna do?
Speaker 3: Stop?
Speaker 2: Stop playing. I don't think Brandon Staley, who surprisingly talked
Speaker 2: to Kaylee hart on going into halftime, I give him
Speaker 2: some credit for that and wasn't giving away anything emotionally
Speaker 2: on the sideline. I don't think he would mind and
Speaker 2: people and I saw it on Twitter, so that's what
Speaker 2: I'm reacting to, Like, people need to calm down with
Speaker 2: Antonio Pears somehow breaking some sort of code. Give me
Speaker 2: a break.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think it goes both ways, though,
Speaker 3: don't I would not have been a surprised if Brandon
Speaker 3: Staley when covers zero, the entire rest of the game
Speaker 3: as well, right sure, oh sure, And that's like that.
Speaker 3: The code is that you have a choice, and I
Speaker 3: have a choice when you do a double pass. What
Speaker 3: I loved is that they installed one double pass this
Speaker 3: game and they just ran the same one twice. It's like,
Speaker 3: you know, like what they did a different over motion
Speaker 3: on it, so it was probably a sideline thing.
Speaker 2: Well it worked the first time. I know, it was
Speaker 2: just two for two for twelve yards, but he got
Speaker 2: the touchdown on it. Jacoby Myers perfect well, not quite
Speaker 2: perfect passer rating, but pretty nice tonight. Do you do
Speaker 2: NGS numbers on like Jacoby Myers as a passer?
Speaker 3: I didn't. That's me showing how unprepared I am for
Speaker 3: postgame with you.
Speaker 2: I again, and we'll move kind of to the bigger
Speaker 2: picture stuff soon. And I do want to get into
Speaker 2: your role and everything, because it is very fascinating to me.
Speaker 2: I really do enjoy and maybe that's why your producer
Speaker 2: reached out. I don't know. I've been talking up watching
Speaker 2: it this way. To me, just the coaches film alone,
Speaker 2: getting to watch a game like that is beautiful. But
Speaker 2: all the things Amazon does to supplement that really helps,
Speaker 2: especially the names and the circles and everything. I do
Speaker 2: want to shout out Malcolm Kunz, who was awesome in
Speaker 2: this game. Was crushing one of the best healthy players
Speaker 2: the Chargers have left. You know, they were kind of
Speaker 2: a mash unit, not many healthy players. He was awesome
Speaker 2: rushing the passer, beat Rashaan Slater a number of times.
Speaker 2: I don't know what he ended up with quarterback hits,
Speaker 2: but two sacks. He had that force fumble and he
Speaker 2: was crushing it and he was a big reason why
Speaker 2: they lost. And look the defense. There was a couple
Speaker 2: of fumbles early by the Chargers special teams and on
Speaker 2: offense and Raiders converted it early. But the Chargers defense,
Speaker 2: to me, was a big part of this story in
Speaker 2: the first half of this game. And you know, the
Speaker 2: conversation coming out of it will be whether Brandon Staley
Speaker 2: keeps his job through this weekend, because I think we
Speaker 2: know he's very likely to lose it after the end
Speaker 2: of the season. And I just kind of look back
Speaker 2: on him in his run because when he came in
Speaker 2: he was a little bit of an analytics darling in
Speaker 2: just that he was so aggressive. I thought he somehow
Speaker 2: lost the plot. Sometimes that he went for it so
Speaker 2: much and then he pulled back so much, and sometimes
Speaker 2: he seemed to be reacting to what the public was saying,
Speaker 2: and that's always dangerous. But the thing that I always
Speaker 2: come back to with him, and I'm sure he knows
Speaker 2: this in his heart once he has time to look back,
Speaker 2: and his was he's a defensive coach and the defense
Speaker 2: just was never good enough and his three years as
Speaker 2: Chargers coach. I don't know if you like don't like
Speaker 2: me using DVOA. Are they like a rival? Okay?
Speaker 3: I don't love Aaron.
Speaker 2: I love some in the analytics game. They don't like
Speaker 2: each other. There's different beefs. It's a tough either. The
Speaker 2: streets are tough about. There's also friendships out there too.
Speaker 3: I am I am. I am one of those people
Speaker 3: in the analytics world, especially because I come from a
Speaker 3: football background, that any number that will help us get
Speaker 3: better explaining football to people.
Speaker 2: That's why I'm I'm fan of Yes And he's been
Speaker 2: doing it and.
Speaker 3: The results are there and one of the best predictors
Speaker 3: you can get on an individual player basis. It's it's
Speaker 3: a great.
Speaker 2: Stat right, and they've been doing it for so long.
Speaker 2: And I was gonna mention Chargers defense under Staley twenty
Speaker 2: sixth in twenty twenty one, twenty first last year, and
Speaker 2: coming into this game they were twenty seventh. Obviously, Herbert
Speaker 2: kind of peaked, I would say in terms of his production.
Speaker 2: His efficiency is everything in twenty twenty one, and his
Speaker 2: numbers kind of have gone down the last couple of years.
Speaker 2: So that's the most important thing is to develop your guy.
Speaker 2: And so I'm giving a little bit of a retrospective Sam,
Speaker 2: just because there's a decent chance he might not have
Speaker 2: his job by the time we tape next and we're
Speaker 2: gonna be just recapping games on Sunday. It won't even
Speaker 2: be it'll be kind of an afterthought then. So tonight
Speaker 2: put me in a little bit of a reflective mood
Speaker 2: looking back on this Dally era.
Speaker 3: Yeah, to start on tonight, one of the stats we
Speaker 3: didn't get to bring in to the game, But you know,
Speaker 3: to me, it was a beautiful night of rudimentary football,
Speaker 3: getting down to the brass tacks on it. And what
Speaker 3: I mean by that is what the Raiders game plan
Speaker 3: was to attack Mike Davis, the cornerback for the Chargers,
Speaker 3: and you know, when you're watching film getting ready for
Speaker 3: a game, it's about finding the fish, right, who's the
Speaker 3: weak link and how do we take advantage of them.
Speaker 3: It's not always hey, we have the best concepts. Look
Speaker 3: at all these you plays. It was where's Mike Davis?
Speaker 3: And Mike Davis is not hard to find even though
Speaker 3: they're trying to hide him. He plays into the boundary
Speaker 3: more than in the eighty percent of the time or
Speaker 3: nearly eighty percent of the time. He's in the boundary
Speaker 3: and they you put a guy there because he can't
Speaker 3: cover the whole field, and they still attacked him. He
Speaker 3: still has the most touchdowns over he has six touchdowns
Speaker 3: on him when targeted over ten air yards. He had
Speaker 3: two to night. You know they knew Trey Tucker, with
Speaker 3: his speed, they were gonna attack him there. It was
Speaker 3: seriously a very simple game plan. Third down, go to
Speaker 3: mayor big play, find Mike Davis and I love I
Speaker 3: love when football can be like that and you can
Speaker 3: make it easy. And like you said, analytically was he
Speaker 3: was seemed like a darling, but he was mostly going
Speaker 3: off vibes. You know, I'm gonna be completely honest like that.
Speaker 3: You look at when you look. So in game, they
Speaker 3: have an analytics expert on their staff that is helping
Speaker 3: coach make decisions and he's guiding him. But they don't
Speaker 3: have access to the same data that you or I
Speaker 3: will see on Twitter or that I have access to
Speaker 3: with the next Gen Status Decision Guide. So the end game,
Speaker 3: they're just the printing out a book that has the
Speaker 3: possible scenarios they might run into. Analytics expert is giving
Speaker 3: a recommendation and then it's up to the coach. And
Speaker 3: so when you look at the next Stat's Decision Guide,
Speaker 3: which will has a live data, now we don't know
Speaker 3: what their game plan is, so I don't have game
Speaker 3: plan data for them. But when you look at the
Speaker 3: next ship Statisision Guide, it is as robust as can
Speaker 3: be on giving the right recommendations. And Brandon Staley has
Speaker 3: lost more win probability on situations to go for it
Speaker 3: when the.
Speaker 4: When the uh? Then when he when he treat me
Speaker 4: with the model exactly, thank you. So he's being too aggressive.
Speaker 4: And so when you say, oh, is he is he
Speaker 4: really following analytics, he's not. He's just kind of going
Speaker 4: on vibes. Whether it was the first game or his
Speaker 4: first season, he had a defense he's in trust. Then
Speaker 4: he spent one hundred and nine million dollars on defense
Speaker 4: with Khalil Mack and he goes, oh, Okay, now I
Speaker 4: have to trust my defense. And so he just kind
Speaker 4: of walked goes off of vibes in those moments, not
Speaker 4: really focusing on being as analytically savvy as it might
Speaker 4: have seen in the first year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a shame because they've had great players, but
Speaker 2: Bosa hasn't been able to stay on the field Derwin
Speaker 2: James for whatever reason this year. Maybe it's just usage.
Speaker 2: Often they're using him kind of as a single high
Speaker 2: guy and that's not really His strength hasn't been as
Speaker 2: impactful this season. And I just think, you know that
Speaker 2: a couple of moments before we move on from the Chargers,
Speaker 2: because again, I'm just anticipating what may happen here. You know,
Speaker 2: the twenty seven to nothing lost last year was concerning,
Speaker 2: But to me, Staley's responses to questions about that loss
Speaker 2: this season, we're almost more concerning. Like he was, he
Speaker 2: was just feeling it. He was tight, and I just
Speaker 2: think back to that last game of the regular season.
Speaker 2: I guess that would have been in twenty one when
Speaker 2: Justin Herbert's just at that point playing as well as
Speaker 2: he's ever played as a pro, playing out of his mind,
Speaker 2: playing one of the best games I can think of
Speaker 2: that a quarterback could play that year. Hell, he got
Speaker 2: an MVP voter or to or maybe it was just
Speaker 2: one vote that year.
Speaker 3: I think it was fine.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they still lose. They still lose because they
Speaker 2: can't stop Derek Carr in the Raiders and that defense
Speaker 2: can't get one stop late in that game. So it
Speaker 2: ends up just being a great shootout and they don't
Speaker 2: get rewarded for it. So we got to get you
Speaker 2: an MVP vote. Do you really have one?
Speaker 3: I don't. I don't, but I would. I think the
Speaker 3: guy is special. I think he did a lot of
Speaker 3: fun stuff on the field in the way he fights
Speaker 3: their injuries.
Speaker 2: I know, and he probably will be starting over unless
Speaker 2: they wanted to get really crazy and go to Kellen
Speaker 2: Moore as the head coach or maybe the interim head coach.
Speaker 2: Who knows. I see. I see a lot of Bill
Speaker 2: Belichick stuff out there. I would not hold your breath
Speaker 2: on that, like.
Speaker 3: I think you have to. What people have to see
Speaker 3: is that this is not fantasy football where everyone's created equal. Like, uh,
Speaker 3: you know, one of the things I should say about
Speaker 3: Brandon Staley White went for it so much on fourth
Speaker 3: down was his first year. He hit a four year deal.
Speaker 3: It's very hard to get fired in your first year
Speaker 3: because having run a football league before, you don't have
Speaker 3: in the budget double paying the head coach. You just
Speaker 3: it's it's it's it's not a thing that you account
Speaker 3: for when going forward. So I think, you know, paying
Speaker 3: the money that Belichick will demand, and I think that's
Speaker 3: something that the Chargers aren't going to do right.
Speaker 2: And I I look at it too. Just Belichick famously
Speaker 2: said about what he Johnson in a book or was
Speaker 2: quoted sorts, was I'm not going to work for that
Speaker 2: bleeping guy. Uh when he ended up, you know, retiring
Speaker 2: five five days after uh he was hired or two
Speaker 2: days after whatever it was. And I just think you
Speaker 2: look at the situation, Tom Telesco, the GM, will he
Speaker 2: be there? Will he won't. Belichick's only going to have
Speaker 2: all the power. And there's a certain amount of ego
Speaker 2: that's involved a certain amount of it, like who would
Speaker 2: even want to take him on? And to me, the
Speaker 2: Chargers are just not the ownership or if tell Telesco's
Speaker 2: there as a GM, someone that's gonna want to take
Speaker 2: him on. We do have a quote from from Brandon
Speaker 2: Staley after this game. I'm just gonna read for you quickly.
Speaker 2: He said, games like this happened in the NFL to
Speaker 2: every coach that's ever coaching this league. You can look
Speaker 2: at any great coach that's ever coached in league. Sometimes
Speaker 2: games like this happen. I don't need to retrace history,
Speaker 2: but it's part of sports. Sometimes there are games where
Speaker 2: it doesn't go right, none of it. You have to
Speaker 2: put it behind. You got to move on to the
Speaker 2: next thing. It's philosophical, it's even true, but it's not
Speaker 2: what any charges fan or I suspect Dean span Us
Speaker 2: is going to want to hear tonight. Let let's talk
Speaker 2: something more fun. Let's get out of tonight. You broke
Speaker 2: out a stat between the third and the fourth quarter,
Speaker 2: I mean breaking news. It was called qb D. I
Speaker 2: explain this stat for me.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so QB difficulty Index and we call it QBDI
Speaker 3: for short. It kind of set out. It was like
Speaker 3: a little bit of a pipe dream. You know, we
Speaker 3: have a great team at Amazon and the things that
Speaker 3: we can kind of create. But we have so many
Speaker 3: different metrics, whether the composites or machine learning metrics like
Speaker 3: EPA per dropback or different things that can measure the
Speaker 3: performance of quarterback, and like none of them are everyone
Speaker 3: set picks and choose, which is when they want to
Speaker 3: use passer rating and then just passing score, you know,
Speaker 3: passer rating, and they don't have sacks. QBR that has SAX,
Speaker 3: but we don't know exactly how it's made right, all
Speaker 3: the different right, Like, there's a bunch of different things
Speaker 3: that measure the performance. So we thought, well, let's measure
Speaker 3: the world around the quarterback and see if we can
Speaker 3: create a level playing fields. And this quarterback has a
Speaker 3: more difficult time than this one, and so then we
Speaker 3: can then look at that as a baseline and saying okay,
Speaker 3: now we're trying to compare it. And what's great about
Speaker 3: the stat this year is this is something we thought
Speaker 3: of last year in one of our games. And now
Speaker 3: the conversation about MVP is all about brock Party's life
Speaker 3: is so easy. He's got the easiest game plan, everything's
Speaker 3: made the easy for him. And qbd I is trained
Speaker 3: on expert annotations myself, other NFL players that have done
Speaker 3: this that that kind of know football, annotating which plays
Speaker 3: are most easy for a quarterback to complete, and we
Speaker 3: take that, we run some machine learning on it. We
Speaker 3: have some of stack rank metrics that we're applying to
Speaker 3: things that the quarterback doesn't typically control. And then it
Speaker 3: spits out a number, and so it has a pretty
Speaker 3: high agreeance with how experts anna tape plays kicking the
Speaker 3: exact number, but it's very high where the model agrees
Speaker 3: with the experts. So we feel confident that the numbers
Speaker 3: that we're able to give out correctly identify which quarterbacks
Speaker 3: have the most difficult games, of which quarterbacks are the easiest.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and to give our listeners some background, I do
Speaker 2: know you are a former player. It used to play
Speaker 2: offensive line at Stanford with Andrew Luck and I'm sure
Speaker 2: that's all going into it. I am curious, does it so?
Speaker 2: What does it take into account? It takes an account
Speaker 2: how easy the passes scheme? Does it take in like
Speaker 2: opponent into account?
Speaker 3: So I got to put this the right way. The
Speaker 3: thing about machine learning is it's not you can't always
Speaker 3: pick out what components are taking place, right so even
Speaker 3: when you see on prime vision, if your Prime Vsion watcher,
Speaker 3: we have defensive alert when it's giving out a recommendation
Speaker 3: of this player is likely to blitz or not. I
Speaker 3: can't go in and say this is the moment using
Speaker 3: the components they're telling you we're able to do. Is
Speaker 3: every single player in the NFL is tracking chips in
Speaker 3: their shoulder pads in the ball on the we have
Speaker 3: a wire frame of the field, a web of the field,
Speaker 3: and we're tracking those player movements, and then we annotate
Speaker 3: plays off of identifying these plays are more difficult than
Speaker 3: these plays, and we stack rank different plays, and then
Speaker 3: the model trains off that information.
Speaker 2: So I can't when you're starting it out, are you
Speaker 2: sort of starting it out like that it's more difficult
Speaker 2: because the defense is playing. Well, I'm just curious if
Speaker 2: it's including the defense all the way the.
Speaker 3: Model works and I'm curious. Yeah no, no, yeah no,
Speaker 3: you're talking to the biggest football door. The way we
Speaker 3: view it is and identifies how easy the game plan is,
Speaker 3: which we saw tonight for Eastern stick screen passes, easy throws,
Speaker 3: get them all out quick. We know that is involved
Speaker 3: and that we're able to match that up. We're able
Speaker 3: to then also see as offensive line blocking correctly, is
Speaker 3: this quarterback being pressured a lot?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 3: You see that plays of pressure have higher difficulties very easy.
Speaker 3: And then we have a we have a stat that
Speaker 3: we co developed with next Gen Stats called prime targets,
Speaker 3: which is identifying players that are open or likely to
Speaker 3: convert a first down if they caught the ball in
Speaker 3: that moment. You're you know, if you're watching the broadcast,
Speaker 3: these are the players that light up green with a
Speaker 3: green orb. Uh, because we're measuring not just who the
Speaker 3: quarterback throws to, but is any other player on the
Speaker 3: field open. So the more prime targets, the easier the players.
Speaker 3: And so there's different metrics that go into it, but
Speaker 3: all the player tracking data is also being measured on
Speaker 3: top of it. So uh, we're able to confiantly say
Speaker 3: that you know the coordinator, your offensive line, your and
Speaker 3: your skill position players are are doing their jobs, then
Speaker 3: you're going to have an easier game. There's also a
Speaker 3: way that quarterbacks can be unie because if your quarterback
Speaker 3: that your coach calls quick game and you do not
Speaker 3: throw that quick game plat pass, you're gonna have a
Speaker 3: difficult game. So that's the only way the quarterback really
Speaker 3: is controlling how difficult their game is. And we've seen
Speaker 3: quarterbacks do that where they're just gonna hold onto the
Speaker 3: ball and trying hero ball a lot. That game makes
Speaker 3: to play more difficult. Guys like Patrick Mahomes Josh Allen
Speaker 3: who we see do hero ball things. They're not doing
Speaker 3: it on the quick passes.
Speaker 2: Right, they're doing it on the right on the right passes.
Speaker 2: And yeah, I saw you mentioned East and Stick had
Speaker 2: a you know, uh, I guess it would be a
Speaker 2: high score there in terms of it was easy.
Speaker 3: It was easy, So the lower the number of the
Speaker 3: easier score, so we scale everything from one to ten,
Speaker 3: and he would have hit a little bit a little
Speaker 3: bit above a three, which would have won one of
Speaker 3: the easier games this year.
Speaker 2: But to be fair, easton Stick not an embarrassment tonight.
Speaker 2: Despite the fact that they had like no points throughout
Speaker 2: the game. He actually ended up with two fifty seven
Speaker 2: and three touchdowns and even early when I know there
Speaker 2: was a fumble and he wasn't looking great to me, uh,
Speaker 2: didn't do the bad. Congratulations to all the fantasy owners,
Speaker 2: by the way, who had the gut to play an
Speaker 2: O'Connell or Easton stick three touchdowns, four touchdowns for O'Connell
Speaker 2: or Zamir White, nice night or Josh Palmer got the
Speaker 2: long touchdown. It's like, if you had the stones to
Speaker 2: do any of that, this actually ended up being a scorefest.
Speaker 2: Let's use your new stat to break down my MVP ladder.
Speaker 2: We actually haven't done this on the show. We've talked
Speaker 2: like Dak Purty, but it's just kind of in general conversations.
Speaker 2: I hadn't thought to sit down and do it. I
Speaker 2: used to always write this as a weekly column at
Speaker 2: the end of the season. I just want to throw
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes in as like an honor roll mention, because
Speaker 2: really he's playing outstanding despite everything that's happening around him.
Speaker 2: But I wrote down six names because I could not
Speaker 2: bear to not include Josh Allen as my number six.
Speaker 2: I actually think there's a chance he finishes this season
Speaker 2: completely on fire and is playing as high level this
Speaker 2: season as just about anyone, and that could get into
Speaker 2: people's minds for the MVP. Tied for fourth and fifth,
Speaker 2: I have the two forty nine. As Kyle c and
Speaker 2: Ann said, he did not want to pick between Christian
Speaker 2: McCaffrey and Brock Purty, and I'm not going to either.
Speaker 2: I'm going to give some reasons for that, but I
Speaker 2: am curious how Purdy and this group matches up with
Speaker 2: your your numbers in terms of the new stat you
Speaker 2: came up with.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, yeah, so which guys did you want to
Speaker 3: know first? On the difficulty range?
Speaker 2: Let let's go, Let's go party. But you can just
Speaker 2: tell me kind of compared to the rest of the
Speaker 2: field and I'll run through my the rest of mine later,
Speaker 2: Like how does Perdy rate out here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Party would be in the upper third right or
Speaker 3: right of the edge. Of easiest quarterbacks, he's at a
Speaker 3: four point nine to six. Tua is the lowest at
Speaker 3: three point nine to one. Right, And a large part
Speaker 3: of what we're seeing with Tua is the quick game,
Speaker 3: and those guys are getting open, and he's not really
Speaker 3: diverting off the quick game quite a bit, and he's
Speaker 3: throwing behind line scrimmage, you know, over one hundred percent
Speaker 3: of his yards in the or not over one hundercent,
Speaker 3: that's just RhE most inside the red zone. Ninety plus
Speaker 3: percent of his yards are yack, right, So easy plays
Speaker 3: or screen. Screenplays are easy plays, and so we're seeing
Speaker 3: a lot of that from him. But Brock Pardy, his
Speaker 3: offensive line isn't blocking as well as some of the
Speaker 3: other offensive lines out there, and so when you're looking
Speaker 3: at how difficult it is, that's part of it. Now,
Speaker 3: is it making it easier for him because there are
Speaker 3: open receivers quite a bit? Absolutely? Is he being called
Speaker 3: upon to play as much as other as to pass
Speaker 3: as much as some of the other guys, not as much.
Speaker 3: So we're seeing that on a total difficulty place. He's
Speaker 3: not playing seen as many difficult plays, but he's still
Speaker 3: able to operate within those plays. And you know when
Speaker 3: the Brock party Dak Prescott is the two leading favorites
Speaker 3: or the you know, the betting favorites right now, they're
Speaker 3: right around each other. They're in the exact same territory.
Speaker 3: So those guys, where's Lamar? Let me look at the list.
Speaker 3: He's one of the more difficult ones because he's he's
Speaker 3: running around quite a bit. Yeah, probably one of the
Speaker 3: highest guys in the NFL the eligible players. So looking
Speaker 3: at our list right now, Lamar is up there. So
Speaker 3: if you're looking for Lamar as your MVP, this is
Speaker 3: the stat to help back up your MVP.
Speaker 2: Well you can just see, you know, put his rushing
Speaker 2: numbers in there too, and his rushing QBR value. I
Speaker 2: have Lamar number three right now, and before forty nine
Speaker 2: ers fans go crazy that I would have you know,
Speaker 2: Purty fourth or fifth. A lot of it. First of all,
Speaker 2: it is some eye test and evaluating like how well
Speaker 2: this player is playing relative, But having someone in the
Speaker 2: top five MVP, and for me that would be the
Speaker 2: top three quarterbacks is saying he's playing at an exceptionally
Speaker 2: high level. I just like the other people playing at
Speaker 2: an exceptionally high level, like a little more. And a
Speaker 2: big part of that is what you mentioned, which is opportunity.
Speaker 2: He has less than about one hundred less dropbacks than
Speaker 2: Dak Prescott. That's like two to three games for Brock Purty.
Speaker 2: So when I think about that, they are asking Dak
Speaker 2: Prescott to do more, which they clearly are. He essentially
Speaker 2: runs the offense himself. He's changing all the plays, he's
Speaker 2: changing the protection. He he has so much more on
Speaker 2: his plate. It's just it's just a fact. And then
Speaker 2: you're also adding that just volume wise, him and Lamar
Speaker 2: and some other quarterbacks have such a higher number of dropbacks.
Speaker 2: Lamar obviously as the running game. So that's why I'm
Speaker 2: giving like a slight edge. I have Lamar three Tyreek
Speaker 2: Hill two because to me, his value, what he's doing
Speaker 2: is just special at his position compared to maybe what
Speaker 2: any quarterback season is having. If he can get over
Speaker 2: two thousand, I give him a chance, and then Dak
Speaker 2: would be my number one. Where where would you lean
Speaker 2: at this point in the season.
Speaker 3: Look, I have a tough time fault and breaking the
Speaker 3: trend of VP per dropback deciding who our MVP is
Speaker 3: going to be. It's done a pretty good job over
Speaker 3: the years.
Speaker 2: But that's looking back, like, isn't it that a team
Speaker 2: not to jump in? Sorry, isn't that to me? You'll
Speaker 2: be able to drop back a little bit of a
Speaker 2: team stat more than a quarterback stat.
Speaker 3: It's a holistic stat, absolutely, but you can't argue that
Speaker 3: quarterbacks don't have the most impact. And then, for the
Speaker 3: past seven years, I think, going back to Cam Newton,
Speaker 3: the EPA for dropback leader has won the MVP. So
Speaker 3: it passes the eyeball test in terms of quarterback performance.
Speaker 3: And then I'll tell you this, this is probably my
Speaker 3: favorite reasoning on why Eat Rock Party should win it.
Speaker 3: When Kyle Shanahan was asked preseason two years ago if
Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo is the starter, he said, I don't know what.
Speaker 3: If we're all going to be alive tomorrow, how can
Speaker 3: I tell you that? And then he was asked this
Speaker 3: year if Rock Party was the starter coming off of
Speaker 3: a ucl tair, he said, Brock Purty would have to
Speaker 3: melt off the face of the earth for him not
Speaker 3: to be the starter. So in terms of we're all
Speaker 3: saying that Kyle Shanhan's the guru the greatest, how does
Speaker 3: he view of this quarterback compared to the ones he's
Speaker 3: had in the past. I don't know. So should we
Speaker 3: take Matt Ryan's MVP away from him? Right? Because he
Speaker 3: also led the league in mv okay, And so that's
Speaker 3: where I look at for brock perty Now, if you're
Speaker 3: asking me what I trade Brock Purdy for Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 3: if straight up, if I were the the Niners, you know,
Speaker 3: I think I might take Patrick Mahomes on my team more.
Speaker 3: It's just, you know, it's hard to separate out the
Speaker 3: teams and the situations, and then my probably my last
Speaker 3: tongue in cheek reason for Brock Purdy. He's the eighty
Speaker 3: first highest highest paid quarterback in the NFL. So when
Speaker 3: you talk about value you're getting for performance no more
Speaker 3: point per dollar greater. So we're gonna go semantics on MVP.
Speaker 3: He is definitely the most valuable quarterback in the NFL.
Speaker 2: That that is a completely fair point and would be
Speaker 2: a fun column like the most valuable players in the NFL,
Speaker 2: like relative to how much money they're making, and he
Speaker 2: would run away with that. I hear, I hear everything
Speaker 2: you're saying, but I think like multiple things can be true.
Speaker 2: I think Matt Ryan that year, for instance, was so
Speaker 2: far ahead of the pack and was so exceptional in
Speaker 2: every way that that it's okay to in that year
Speaker 2: that he made sense for that award and to look
Speaker 2: around the league right now, And again, the volume thing
Speaker 2: really does matter a lot to me personally. And I
Speaker 2: think Dak and Lamar are having exceptional season. But I'm
Speaker 2: kind of splitting nits. And I also would say, like
Speaker 2: four weeks is an exceptionally long time in an MVP race.
Speaker 2: A lot of times what you think with four weeks
Speaker 2: to go, it completely changes, and for me having pretty
Speaker 2: third among quarterbacks, it's like three among great quarterbacks having
Speaker 2: great seasons and there's very little difference between them. And
Speaker 2: I'm very open minded to seeing kind of how this goes.
Speaker 2: But I think it's okay to break from what voters
Speaker 2: do in the past. Two people say like, well, you know, Tyreek,
Speaker 2: you can't consider that because they haven't done in the past,
Speaker 2: Like why do we have to why do we have
Speaker 2: to be slaves to what is often an unthinking process
Speaker 2: for a lot of the voters, because I know some
Speaker 2: of their thought processes and they're just like asking the
Speaker 2: assistance at the place they work at to do it
Speaker 2: for them. Sometimes, like I do we can break from
Speaker 2: the e PA has to be the the no the choice.
Speaker 3: We actually can. I think it's just it's a little
Speaker 3: bit of a tough pill to swallow when all of
Speaker 3: a sudden for Brock Party, it struggles like we don't
Speaker 3: have many non first round pick m vps. I think
Speaker 3: it's Tom Brady. Did Tom Brady win MVP? Yeah? Yeah,
Speaker 3: and then you have rich Gannon right was the last
Speaker 3: after that? So, uh, we have a little first round
Speaker 3: pick bias. So Dak Prescott doesn't follow that, but I
Speaker 3: think that's what that's That could be a little bit
Speaker 3: of it too. So look, and I know I know
Speaker 3: the brock Party stuff. If you really want to get
Speaker 3: me to start on someone, it's probably Josh Allen, But
Speaker 3: I think you have to make the playoffs and they're
Speaker 3: still outside looking in. So Josh Allen probably does more
Speaker 3: for his team than anyone right now.
Speaker 2: I'm kind of with you on that, and it's a
Speaker 2: good point. Dak Prescott fourth round pick, Tyreek Hill, fifth
Speaker 2: round pick, brock Party, mister irrelevant. So it's not all
Speaker 2: about the draft, Sam, I would love to dive deep
Speaker 2: into all things Prime Vision, but I want to get
Speaker 2: you out of there before it gets too late. I
Speaker 2: appreciate you joining me, and look, if you're an overseas
Speaker 2: listener and you don't get Prime, I feel bad for you.
Speaker 2: But if you're here, because we do have a lot
Speaker 2: of listeners overseas, if you're in the States and you
Speaker 2: haven't been checking out, just just hit that down button
Speaker 2: on the main broadcast and it really does change. I
Speaker 2: wish it was an option, but maybe it's just nice
Speaker 2: as a once a week kind of like dessert or
Speaker 2: something like that watching the coaches film and everything that
Speaker 2: goes on with the Prime Vision Live is a much
Speaker 2: different experience than when you've tried to watch coaches film,
Speaker 2: or if you've watched coaches film like after the Fact
Speaker 2: and on Game Pass or on NFL Plus or anything.
Speaker 2: It really is a fun different way. It's like being
Speaker 2: there and it's been fun, and you've added a lot
Speaker 2: to the broadcast. This here shit you, Sam.
Speaker 3: Thanks so much. Yeah. Now you have my number, you
Speaker 3: have Alex Strande's number. You have the information. So you
Speaker 3: have ideas, you want to see something during the game,
Speaker 3: you send it over.
Speaker 2: Oh, my son's got lots of ideas. He is hooked
Speaker 2: on Prime Vision so he loves it too. So I
Speaker 2: will be bugging you with that and our listeners. We
Speaker 2: will be bugging you again. On Sunday the recap show
Speaker 2: will be.
Speaker 3: Live.
Speaker 2: Wow Week fifteen sixteen games. We'll hit all the Saturday
Speaker 2: games on Sunday night until then. For Sam Schwarztein, he
Speaker 2: the call