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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Huge. It's

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Speaker 1: it's it's a Monday. Um. I'm sure at some point

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Speaker 1: producer Matt Ford will come on and find a way

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Speaker 1: to mock me at some point during this week Uh.

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Speaker 1: And the opening, as anyone who listens to The Favorites knows,

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Speaker 1: he does so well. But it is a big Monday

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Speaker 1: because it's post draft weekend. There's a lot of NBA

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Speaker 1: playoffs going on. The Warriors and the Rockets opened yesterday

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Speaker 1: too much fanfare and controversy. Later on, uh this week

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Speaker 1: this weekend Saturday, Kentucky Derby. So later on in the show,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna have Matt Jones, Action Network contributor from Kentucky

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Speaker 1: Sports Radio. He's going to come on the show. Um,

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Speaker 1: but first on the phone with me right now. Having

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Speaker 1: done I'll take that bet on ESPN plus. Having done

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Speaker 1: the new Action Network show on Serious on the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Channel eight seven, channel eighty seven. On Serious, you gotta

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Speaker 1: listen two hours every day, nine to eleven Monday to Friday.

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Speaker 1: Listen to that show. Uh. He was just a guest

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Speaker 1: on their Chris Raybun Action Network senior writer. How you doing, Buddy.

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Speaker 1: I'm good, Chad. You know, just celebrated a birthday. The

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Speaker 1: NFL Draft just took place, so we got rosters. I

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Speaker 1: am feeling good. I'm feeling pretty good too. Can we

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Speaker 1: talk about the Warriors in the Rockets for a second.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna spring that on you. It's not something we

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Speaker 1: talked about in advance of you coming on, But that

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Speaker 1: was a pretty nutty game yesterday. And um, I know

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Speaker 1: you had a lot of opinions on that game. Where

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Speaker 1: did you land on that game? From a betting perspective?

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Speaker 1: So that one was one that I kind of stayed

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Speaker 1: a waite them from a betting perspective. I wanted to

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Speaker 1: see how they're gonna play it for game two, um,

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Speaker 1: because so what I saw in Game one was that

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Speaker 1: as everyone did the restaurants, a ton of calls, and

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Speaker 1: I think with all the scrutiny, with all the players

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Speaker 1: coming out on Twitter, both side teams, that players that

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Speaker 1: weren't even involved, you know, the whole Utah Jazz team

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Speaker 1: to get involved in this thing. I think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: call a tighter game and game two because they have

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Speaker 1: no choice and I think if they call a tighter

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Speaker 1: game and a tighter series for that matter, it benefits

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Speaker 1: the rocket because James Harden, you know, they said they

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Speaker 1: missed four calls and I'm not twelve free throws. James

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Speaker 1: Harden doesn't missed many free throws. So I think that

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Speaker 1: you're gonna see. Uh. I think this is the time

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Speaker 1: the bet the Warriors. I'm excusing me, bet the Rockets

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Speaker 1: because if you know, Matt mort did a piece on

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Speaker 1: Action Network and he talked about how you want to

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Speaker 1: bet against the Warriors in these reaction games when they're

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Speaker 1: coming off a win. UM in the KDI error just

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Speaker 1: six and seven against the spread coming off a win,

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Speaker 1: but six and three coming off the loss. I think

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Speaker 1: if you want to bet them, you bet them at

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Speaker 1: a third quarter. They want eleven of fourteen third quarters

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Speaker 1: against the Rockets since last season, that's kind of that's

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Speaker 1: kind of beast well, that was insane last year, Like

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Speaker 1: every single time the Warriors came out in the second half,

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Speaker 1: they would just destroy any momentum the Rockets had and

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Speaker 1: it was so so frustrating, and you kept thinking, can

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Speaker 1: they keep doing it? Can they keep doing it? Um?

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Speaker 1: And look they got into the fourth quarter this year,

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Speaker 1: they were up by nine and then the Rockets made

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Speaker 1: that comeback. Um, but I don't disagree with you. Like,

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Speaker 1: if this game gets called, if the games get called

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Speaker 1: a little bit tighter, then it's gonna be a lot

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Speaker 1: more interesting for the Rockets. You have bet a ton

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Speaker 1: of player props this year. Like if you follow people

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Speaker 1: in the Action Network app, I follow you in the

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Speaker 1: Action Network app. Um, how did you get so into

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Speaker 1: the NBA player props? I think it's really the same

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Speaker 1: way I got into fantasy as a whole. You know,

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Speaker 1: I was a big growing up. I was big box

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Speaker 1: store head. I would I would read every box score

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Speaker 1: in the factual printed newspaper every day, but pre internet days,

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Speaker 1: and uh so you know, just kind of going off that.

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Speaker 1: You know, now you can kind of just bet on

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Speaker 1: you know, points, rebounds and assists. I think it's kind

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Speaker 1: of fun because you can really zero in on one

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Speaker 1: particular player in one particular stat and kind of you know,

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Speaker 1: versus I think sometimes in Fantasy the one drawback is

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Speaker 1: it's almost like when you're making it fancy or DFF

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Speaker 1: line of more so, it's like it's like a nine

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Speaker 1: nine bet parley. You know, you're you're picking a lot

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Speaker 1: up for nine players, and you know there's all these

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Speaker 1: things that could go on. But um, when you're betting props,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's just one singular event. You know, you

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Speaker 1: better guys assist. He either goes over, he goes under.

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Speaker 1: So UM, I really like kind of zero in on

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Speaker 1: those on those sometimes is there an edge in either

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Speaker 1: the Celtics box or the Sixers Raptors, or um the

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Speaker 1: Nuggets and the Blazers or the Warriors and the Rockets.

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Speaker 1: Where is the biggest edge in terms of a player

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Speaker 1: who is either undervalued or overvalued in terms of press?

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Speaker 1: So what I do with player props, Like, one of

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Speaker 1: the things I always look for is, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: players that are coming off so like, for example, the road,

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Speaker 1: they tend to do like role players tend to do

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Speaker 1: worse on the road. Road players tend to do better

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Speaker 1: UM at home. So you know, for game ones, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't apply quite as much. But once you hit uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, all these games two's, Well, I'm looking for guys,

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Speaker 1: you know on the Celtics, um who had you know,

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Speaker 1: big you know, bigger games for his guys who essentially

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Speaker 1: like the four you know the fourth and fifth option.

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Speaker 1: Guys like Jalen Brown, Um, you know, on the on

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Speaker 1: the Celtics. You know, he's a guy that's like probably

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Speaker 1: the fifth guy that's gonna take shots in that line up.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of times, you know, you get that

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Speaker 1: him on the under and on the road. You know,

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Speaker 1: teams getting teams struggled, they uh, you know, tend to

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Speaker 1: pull their starters a little earlier if they're losing on

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Speaker 1: the road because they're not worried about kind of waving

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Speaker 1: the white flag um as they are at home. So

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Speaker 1: I like guys like that m Paul Millsap when he

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Speaker 1: gets on the road. Um, you know, I'm waiting for

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Speaker 1: that for that Game three because Paul Millsap, I mean,

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Speaker 1: home the average about fifteen points per game, uh shooting

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Speaker 1: and on the road ten points thirty one percent shooting. So, um,

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Speaker 1: he's a guy I've been banging the the unders on

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Speaker 1: any time he hits the road all season. But that's

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Speaker 1: really how I do it. And then beyond that, it's

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Speaker 1: just kind of um dut you know, I really love

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Speaker 1: our NBA player profits who at Fantasy rapp dot com

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Speaker 1: on rates every bet you know with with the bet

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Speaker 1: quality rating and those are really successful. You know, the

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Speaker 1: top rated bests are hitting at about a six rate

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Speaker 1: since the start of the season. God, I love how

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Speaker 1: you are looking for the You are mining for these

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Speaker 1: nuggets right like you are so deep in the weeds.

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Speaker 1: The fact that you're reciting Paul mill SAPs stats to me,

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Speaker 1: his splits between the Road and at home, uh, tells

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Speaker 1: me how committed and dedicated you are to betting these props,

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Speaker 1: which is a little bit scary. I'm surprised your girlfriend

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Speaker 1: even want to spend time with you this weekend. I

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Speaker 1: mean that you and me, both you and me boatch.

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Speaker 1: But you know, it's it's something where with the props,

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you've been doing it all season, you

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Speaker 1: kind of get the kind of there there's like recurring teams,

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Speaker 1: like you know, you start to note, you start to

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Speaker 1: notice guys who just play a certain way. And the

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Speaker 1: NBA is a very kind of um it's it's up

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Speaker 1: and down. So I think it's an effort lead where

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Speaker 1: a lot of guys, I don't think anyone really besides

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Speaker 1: Russell Westbrook UM gives a hundred percent effort every night.

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Speaker 1: And so what you see is like a guy might

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Speaker 1: have a big game one day and he'll feel like

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Speaker 1: he did his part in Okay, I'm gonna get my

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Speaker 1: teammates involved. So you always have things like that, Like

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Speaker 1: you usually see guys, you know, follow up at like

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Speaker 1: Kyle Lowry. The minute he had that zero point game,

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Speaker 1: you knew he was gonna go over as prop um

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Speaker 1: the next game, said Sathing. With Ben Simmons in that

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Speaker 1: first round, Um, he had a really bad game in

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Speaker 1: game one and and and went over his points prop

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Speaker 1: and games too. So you know, guys wh are aware

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Speaker 1: of their own stats very much. So in the NBA,

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Speaker 1: they get the box score the minute they um, minute

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Speaker 1: they hit the locker room in a post game, they

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Speaker 1: get a printed out box score and they look at

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Speaker 1: their stats. How many how often have you bet James

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Speaker 1: Harden under points scored in the game this year? I

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Speaker 1: want to? I think zero? Um, I tend to, you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't even if you know there's there might be

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Speaker 1: a little bit of value on some of those. I

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Speaker 1: just like hate betting against superstars like that, you know,

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Speaker 1: So like I generally don't bet Westbrook unders, I don't

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Speaker 1: bet Harden Under's just certain guys. It just doesn't seem

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Speaker 1: um like a smart thing to do. And then I

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Speaker 1: don't really want to bet the overs either because you

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Speaker 1: know they're so they're so high, so it's like you

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Speaker 1: don't want to be like it takes more for it

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Speaker 1: to go right. So I like to a lot of

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Speaker 1: times bet. You know, I'm looking at usually the fourth

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Speaker 1: or fifth role player on a team, like I bet

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Speaker 1: Anthrew Bogan, you know his under um the other the

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Speaker 1: last Warriors game against the Clippers, because I thought, you know,

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Speaker 1: he's really struggling in the picking role against Lou Williams

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Speaker 1: and Martrez the game before, and I thought, you know,

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Speaker 1: he might end up getting less minutes and of course

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Speaker 1: he actually didn't even start and did get a lot

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Speaker 1: less minutes. So um, you know, just looking for situations

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Speaker 1: like that. Um, I think they are the more profitable

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Speaker 1: ones because the the the ones with the stars. Um

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Speaker 1: I think they're priced a little more uh correctly. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I do know. Is that also following you in the

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Speaker 1: Action Network cap you consistently bet people like that I've

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Speaker 1: never heard of, and so it'll be it'll be like

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Speaker 1: this random player under five and a half rebounds, right,

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Speaker 1: you know, Because again you're always looking for you know,

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Speaker 1: I would say that when a book puts out a

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Speaker 1: line for a prop, right, a lot of times they're

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Speaker 1: just making They're just doing it very simply because they

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Speaker 1: don't have a lot of time to put these out.

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Speaker 1: They're putting out you know, if there's a full slate

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Speaker 1: of games, I mean during the regular because they're putting

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Speaker 1: out hundreds of these things, even they're in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: You know, when you consider you know, three props per starter, Um,

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Speaker 1: there's still a lot of props. And um, the people

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Speaker 1: are always betting on you know, the more obscure players

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Speaker 1: are the fourth and fifth options on the team, and

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Speaker 1: so uh, you know, the lines won't move and they won't, um,

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Speaker 1: I don't. They won't you know, get hit by as

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Speaker 1: much sharp actions, just any action. Really, So the books

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Speaker 1: aren't paying attention. And those are the ones that I

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Speaker 1: really try to, um, really try to hit because I

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Speaker 1: find the most value on those. I'm just gonna start

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Speaker 1: betting whatever you bet in the player proper arena. Sound good? Um,

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Speaker 1: can we talk a little bit about the NFL? Are

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Speaker 1: you ready for that? I knowed you talked about this

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Speaker 1: on the on our brand new show on Serious Fantasy Channel.

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Speaker 1: Lady seven. Um. But the draft was this weekend. Kyler

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Speaker 1: Murray went number one overall. Naturally, there are a million

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Speaker 1: player props against Kyler Murray. Uh, touchdowns nineteen yardage over?

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Speaker 1: Tell me why because your friend black Jack Fletcher, who's

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Speaker 1: a cost to this and oh my goodness, oh everything

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Speaker 1: over with Tyler win, Arizona win total five over wow

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Speaker 1: over like everything like like this guy all right. For example,

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Speaker 1: you know, in February, Kyler Murray was about I want

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Speaker 1: to say, plus five hundred or something like that to

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Speaker 1: be picked number one. Um. And and that's just that's

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Speaker 1: just because for him a bow number one and for

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Speaker 1: him to end up as like the overwhelming favorite, you know,

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Speaker 1: eve and you know leading up to the draft, because

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Speaker 1: this guy is a special player. Um. And he's a

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Speaker 1: guy that made kind of you know, the the league

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Speaker 1: and made you know, people around and we kind of

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Speaker 1: look at, um, you know him differently because any other year,

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Speaker 1: at any time in the past, a guy of that stature,

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Speaker 1: you know, would have gotten not just just for simply

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Speaker 1: that stature. Um. But now you know, people kind of

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Speaker 1: realizing that that doesn't matter as much, specially if the

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Speaker 1: spread offenses. Um. You know, uh. One of the guys

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Speaker 1: on on the on ABC on the when they were

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Speaker 1: covering the draft mentioned some stat about he doesn't get

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Speaker 1: many passes knocked down either, even though he is, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, not that tall, you know, under sixty. So

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Speaker 1: I think there's a special player. I love what they

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Speaker 1: did in the draft getting Isabella Minuteman and um, you know,

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Speaker 1: they got Hakim Butler. So I think this is gonna

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Speaker 1: be a pretty explosive team. And let's not forget David

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Speaker 1: Johnson has been hungry for a thousand yard Russian thousand

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Speaker 1: yard receiving season. He reminds me a lot of time

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Speaker 1: Gurley that year where it was the last year with

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Speaker 1: Jeff Fisher and Ti Gurley average three point two yards

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Speaker 1: to carry, nobody to touch him into like the end

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Speaker 1: of the second round and fancy, everyone kind of was

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Speaker 1: like wondering what the hell happened? And he goes out

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Speaker 1: and has the most monstrous season ever the next year.

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Speaker 1: Like that, David Johnson is capable of the same thing.

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Speaker 1: Like I'm I'm already pretty much drafting David Johnson over

251
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Speaker 1: Todd Gurley in fantasy. You know, Todd Gurleys got the

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Speaker 1: Niets and turns arthritic knee. Rams drafted another back, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, spent some some significant draft capital on Henderson.

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Speaker 1: So I think I think the Rams are a little

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Speaker 1: bit worried about about Girley, and I would be too,

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Speaker 1: because we know running backs have a short Shelfler. But

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Speaker 1: let's get back to the fact of the matter here,

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Speaker 1: Ariz over five wins over easily. So all right, So

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Speaker 1: objectively speaking, like let's say you have you have zero

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Speaker 1: beliefs in Tyler, you have zero beliefs in Kingsbury, uh,

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Speaker 1: and you have zero beliefs in the rest of the

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Speaker 1: roster moves they made. Teams are won three games, such

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Speaker 1: as the Cardinals over the past sixteen years. When a

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Speaker 1: team wins three games, the next year they average six

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Speaker 1: and a half win It's just the NFL is just

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Speaker 1: a regression league. It's just you have to be really

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Speaker 1: an outlier um to kind of ward off that that

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Speaker 1: inherent regression, because you know it's not just the card

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Speaker 1: you know other teams. You know it's a strong division,

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Speaker 1: but you know guys can get hurt. You know, we've

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Speaker 1: already seen what what's going on in Seattle, where you

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Speaker 1: know Doug Baldwin might not be back. Now, you know,

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Speaker 1: things can happen, things can change really quickly, and I think, um,

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Speaker 1: when you're betting on the NFL, it's kind of one

275
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Speaker 1: of those things leads I think where you have to

276
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Speaker 1: look for outliers a little bit more. You know, something

277
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Speaker 1: like the NBA. UM, it's so predictable and you can

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Speaker 1: build such good models that are so accurate because you

279
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Speaker 1: have such a large sample size, whereas the NFL they're

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Speaker 1: only sixteen games, and so even you know, people are

281
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Speaker 1: just so slow to catch onto some of the most

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Speaker 1: profitable situations. You know, just like the past Mahomes last year.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's a lot of people kind of you know,

284
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Speaker 1: kind of on the fence about you know, how good

285
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Speaker 1: he would be, how good to be a fancy, how

286
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Speaker 1: good the Chiefs would be. Um, you know, we saw

287
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Speaker 1: what happened there. So I think, you know, when you

288
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Speaker 1: see these situations, you know, even the Bears last year

289
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Speaker 1: twelve or tour um, So I think you have to

290
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Speaker 1: really kind of the um count on. You know, if

291
00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:09,920
Speaker 1: you see a team that you think it's significantly better,

292
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Speaker 1: I think you would invest, And especially now because now

293
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Speaker 1: a lot of people haven't even looked and win totals

294
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Speaker 1: yet like people aren't like they might not bet them

295
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Speaker 1: to August September, So I think you could still get

296
00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:23,040
Speaker 1: a ton of value on teams like the Cardinals. All right,

297
00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:26,240
Speaker 1: who else? Then I love the brown still at nine

298
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Speaker 1: because I think that's gonna jump up to nine and

299
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Speaker 1: a half, you know what, a lot of spots and

300
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Speaker 1: there's no question in my mind that they are they're

301
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Speaker 1: a winning team, like they're in a bug five hunt team.

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Speaker 1: But um to be able to get that push at

303
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Speaker 1: nine and seven versus um them having to win double

304
00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:42,040
Speaker 1: digit games, I think is big. But um, you know,

305
00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:44,440
Speaker 1: love what day Daniel Baker maycre Over the second half

306
00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:48,800
Speaker 1: of last season averaged eight point five seven yards in

307
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Speaker 1: attempt and that was second in the league behind only

308
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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. And so especially now with uh, you know,

309
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Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill looking like he might not a um you know,

310
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Speaker 1: didn't yet think it too. It's leads just lead to

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Speaker 1: the league in every passing category this year. So I mean,

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Speaker 1: I really like the Browns, like I like what they

313
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Speaker 1: did in the draft. I think, um, you know, they

314
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Speaker 1: also have top the top five pick talent at a

315
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Speaker 1: key defensive spots too. Denzel Awards the top five pick

316
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Speaker 1: at corner, Myles Garrett top five pick pass Russia. So, UM,

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Speaker 1: Brown's got a really good team, I think, UM, I

318
00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,920
Speaker 1: think they're gonna be kind of in the in the

319
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Speaker 1: conversation UM for the AFC Championship. Honestly, who did nothing

320
00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:35,160
Speaker 1: on draft Day to make you think wow? I really

321
00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,840
Speaker 1: think UM, the under is the right play on this

322
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Speaker 1: team because right now I got you bet in like

323
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Speaker 1: a square and just you know, you're all over the overs.

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Speaker 1: It seems to be what you want to do. Who

325
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Speaker 1: would you take the under ONUND? Well, first of all,

326
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Speaker 1: I think I actually wrote an article about this on

327
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Speaker 1: Action Now to UM last week. I think now is

328
00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:57,840
Speaker 1: the best time about overs because I do think you

329
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Speaker 1: know about what three quarters I think bets end of

330
00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:03,080
Speaker 1: coming on the over, so you win total. So UM

331
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Speaker 1: the over the other ones that are gonna tend to increase,

332
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Speaker 1: and the juice is gonna jump. So I definitely think

333
00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,560
Speaker 1: you want to get the overs um sooner and then

334
00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:13,080
Speaker 1: the unders. You know, sometimes you see under that you

335
00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:15,040
Speaker 1: like and it was still the price will still be

336
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,760
Speaker 1: going up. But UM, teams that I you know, don't

337
00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:20,120
Speaker 1: really UM that I'm betting the under on it is

338
00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:23,240
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints and um best for you know,

339
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,800
Speaker 1: they kind of came into the draft with not a

340
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:28,880
Speaker 1: lot of draft capital, so you know, I don't hate

341
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:32,400
Speaker 1: their picks necessarily as much as the fact that they

342
00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:34,160
Speaker 1: didn't have any of them, so you know, and they

343
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,560
Speaker 1: traded up a couple of times again, so uh, you

344
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:38,400
Speaker 1: know their team that I just don't think that their

345
00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:42,880
Speaker 1: roster really uh you know, it's going to be significantly improved.

346
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:44,520
Speaker 1: And I think it's a very kind of top heavy,

347
00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,640
Speaker 1: fragile team and and you know, they depend on Drew

348
00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:49,960
Speaker 1: Brees being great a lot of time. And you know,

349
00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,680
Speaker 1: even with their receiving corps, I mean, uh, you know,

350
00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:56,360
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas is commanding about thirty percent of the targets there.

351
00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:58,640
Speaker 1: So something happens to him, it's a problem. Same thing

352
00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:00,720
Speaker 1: Alvin Kamar or something happened to them, it's a problem.

353
00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,120
Speaker 1: So I think that team is a team where I do.

354
00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,080
Speaker 1: Brea didn't look right to me over the second half

355
00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:06,800
Speaker 1: um their winter, it was ten and a half. I've

356
00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:08,480
Speaker 1: been the under you know, they could be a ten

357
00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:10,639
Speaker 1: win team, a nine or ten win team, and I

358
00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,600
Speaker 1: can still win that bet. I feel really good about

359
00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:15,239
Speaker 1: that because you know, we've seen the Saint kind of

360
00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:20,480
Speaker 1: vastly between between uh you know was seven and nine.

361
00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:22,119
Speaker 1: It would be like seven and nine, can have a

362
00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:23,480
Speaker 1: couple of good years and they'll be right back to

363
00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,200
Speaker 1: seven and nine. So, um, you know, I'm betting the

364
00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:28,119
Speaker 1: under for the Saint. I'm not really buying it. I

365
00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:29,840
Speaker 1: think people are just giving him too much credit because

366
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,280
Speaker 1: they should have made the Super Bowl maybe last year

367
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,760
Speaker 1: with the blone call. But I'm not buying you know,

368
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,280
Speaker 1: them being one of the top two three teams in

369
00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:40,440
Speaker 1: the league. Do you want to know which team I've

370
00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:45,359
Speaker 1: already been on to win the Super Bowl? Whist team?

371
00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:53,359
Speaker 1: The Indianapolis Colts. Oh, They've they've done some. I I

372
00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:57,560
Speaker 1: bet them. I think it eighteen to one. And I

373
00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:00,719
Speaker 1: look at that team and felt like they just like

374
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,359
Speaker 1: they figured out who they are who they were in

375
00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 1: the second half of the year. They got better and

376
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:09,720
Speaker 1: better and better, and they've made enough sort of tweaks

377
00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:14,480
Speaker 1: to their um, to their roster that they are completely

378
00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:17,359
Speaker 1: to me undervalued. Like if you're looking at that, if

379
00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:21,240
Speaker 1: you're looking at that conference, Um, they I feel like

380
00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 1: they could come out of there in a way that

381
00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:27,280
Speaker 1: that is different that that it's just gonna be unexpected.

382
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:29,560
Speaker 1: I loved their price. I tend to like to bet

383
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:33,360
Speaker 1: on teams that are at ten to twenty two one

384
00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:38,400
Speaker 1: in the um future value. And while the Patriots sort

385
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 1: of continued to sort of be that team that beats

386
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:46,440
Speaker 1: the odds necessary, you know, in that in that philosophy.

387
00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:51,119
Speaker 1: Struggling with my words here today, But um, why are

388
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:56,280
Speaker 1: you laughing? Who's laughing? Antonio? I think you're hearing ghost Chad? Yeah,

389
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,000
Speaker 1: I don't think you're I don't think that you're feeling

390
00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,480
Speaker 1: that good about that that that picked. After all, I

391
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:02,680
Speaker 1: think you're just you know, you're you're hearing him in

392
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 1: your Hey, we're in you. And I feel really good

393
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 1: about the pick. I just don't feel good about my

394
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 1: explanation for the pick. Basically, I think there's Andrew luck. Um,

395
00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:17,720
Speaker 1: you know, they kind of exceeded expectations last year after

396
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,640
Speaker 1: a slow, a slowish start, and you know, I think,

397
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:23,159
Speaker 1: you know, there's this is a team that's you know,

398
00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,480
Speaker 1: the coaching. I think the coaching was frank right, I

399
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,760
Speaker 1: think the coach was really good, um last year. I

400
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:29,639
Speaker 1: think that helped him out a lot. I think, you know,

401
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:31,119
Speaker 1: the one thing for them. I think they just have

402
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:33,560
Speaker 1: to make sure that um, you know, hopefully you know,

403
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,320
Speaker 1: either Paris Campbell there their draft pick a wide receiver

404
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,159
Speaker 1: um gives them a boost, or Devin Clunches or somebody,

405
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,800
Speaker 1: because uh, Andrew Luck is really doing it doing it all.

406
00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:44,800
Speaker 1: I think Marlon Mack was big for them, um coming

407
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 1: down the stretch. So if he can stay healthy and

408
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 1: they can get another another guy, you know, to to

409
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:53,000
Speaker 1: kind of support Ebron and Hilton, um, you know out wide,

410
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:54,760
Speaker 1: I think it really opens things up to them. And

411
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:56,920
Speaker 1: I think their defense, you know, young defense kind of

412
00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,320
Speaker 1: ever Fluce was a really really strong for need. I

413
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 1: think that, you know, they exceeded all expectations on defense

414
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:05,160
Speaker 1: last year. We thought it was gonna take them a while,

415
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 1: and they still have a young, young defense, Um that

416
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:10,159
Speaker 1: that could be one of the better ones in the

417
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 1: week this year. So UM, I'm totally I'm totally on

418
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 1: board with the coachs. I like, if I offered you

419
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 1: my cult's ticket for a hundred dollars right now and

420
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 1: whatever it is, eighteen to one, sixteen to one, whatever,

421
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 1: would you take it? Uh? Yeah, I mean that's really

422
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 1: what there. I was all right now though, It's not

423
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,360
Speaker 1: like I'm getting any other value that I couldn't get,

424
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:38,120
Speaker 1: um just at a book. But yeah, what I better

425
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:42,200
Speaker 1: on the quat short m hmm. Maybe I'll think about that,

426
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:45,159
Speaker 1: Like I see him. I think I see him at

427
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,400
Speaker 1: sixteen to one right now, So I mean, I'll probably

428
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,359
Speaker 1: they're probably one of those UM first trendier pick that

429
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:52,640
Speaker 1: so I would think the pribaced would you know, they're

430
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 1: probably would go up as the off season progressive UM?

431
00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 1: When you did you watch the draft this weekend? Yes?

432
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 1: I did? And uh, what was the pick that was

433
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 1: that you thought? Was like, Oh, this is the pick

434
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:13,400
Speaker 1: that I love more than any you know, I actually

435
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 1: I really like going back to the Cardinals. I don't

436
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 1: keep talking about the Cardinals, but I really liked the

437
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,200
Speaker 1: Buyer Murphy pick because you know, I think one of

438
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 1: the things with them has been, you know, one of

439
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:25,720
Speaker 1: the pain points with them has been they they've struggled

440
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 1: most of Patrick Peterson's career to put a guy opposite

441
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 1: him that can kind of um, you know, take the

442
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,679
Speaker 1: heat off and that defensive don't really want to to

443
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 1: throw at and I think, you know, being able to

444
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 1: get a corner like that, UM was a really you

445
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 1: know what he's been. He's he's been, um, you know,

446
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:47,680
Speaker 1: he's extullent corner can do getting very verta oppressed zone everything.

447
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 1: So I think getting a corner like that was really

448
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 1: big for them. UM. And I think the Deebo Samuel

449
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 1: pick Uh for San Francisco, I think he wide receiver,

450
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 1: you know, I think he could um, he could be

451
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,920
Speaker 1: big for them because they really struggled to score touchdown

452
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:05,120
Speaker 1: um in the regal and that was a problem going

453
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 1: back to Jimmy Garoppolo's uh little six game whatever stint

454
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: in seventeen as well. So I think that you know,

455
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 1: them adding a guy who can catch touchdowns and take

456
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 1: some of that pressure of kiddo, you know, having having

457
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 1: got a dad and stuff. Pettis he's still and of

458
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 1: course Kiddo and and all those running backs Kevin Coleman

459
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,360
Speaker 1: and whatnot. I think this is one of those offenses

460
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 1: that could really be a lot more explosive than maybe

461
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 1: people we're kind of thinking of because you know, Jimmy

462
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,160
Speaker 1: g kind of got hurt and kind of out of sight,

463
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 1: out of mind. But I think that's a team to

464
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 1: watch out for, especially on offense. They get get a

465
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 1: lot of shootout because I don't know if theymproved their

466
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,679
Speaker 1: defense that much outside of uh, you know, they got Bosa,

467
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 1: but I think the back end could still use a

468
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 1: little work, So I think they could end up in

469
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 1: a lot of shootouts. I here, why do you think

470
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: that Miami Dolphins win total went down? I've seen it.

471
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 1: I've seen it at five and then I've all of

472
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 1: a sudden, I've seeing it at four and a half

473
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 1: of places. Um, so you know, I think that you

474
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 1: know it just it just kind of looks like they're

475
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 1: they're kind of in this they're in a rebuild, and

476
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 1: we you know, even though they traded for Rosen. Uh. Yeah,

477
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 1: I think everyone kind of knows that that they're in

478
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: a rebuild. I think that they had a solid draft,

479
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 1: but you know, not really a spectacular one. Um, as

480
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 1: far as I'm concerned. So, uh, you know, don't really

481
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 1: see them winning many games. And then I think, you know,

482
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,919
Speaker 1: other teams in the division. I think the Patriots had

483
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 1: a good draft. I think all the other teams in

484
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 1: the division probably had had solid draft. So, um, you know,

485
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 1: if you're gonna lose games, uh, you're you're playing the

486
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: teams in an FC East twice each you're you're that

487
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,160
Speaker 1: one of the team that had the worst draft there

488
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 1: that you know, it's probably gonna get not down a

489
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 1: little bit. So I don't think the Dolphins are gonna

490
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 1: really try to win this year. I mean I think

491
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 1: they will start Rosen and we'll see how that goes.

492
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 1: But you know, Rosen, I mean in a without much

493
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:46,160
Speaker 1: of you know, without much last year, UM, wasn't wasn't

494
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 1: too good. So we'll see, you know, now he's in

495
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 1: a situation where we've got another uh, you know, another

496
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 1: first year coach, has got another offense that's not really

497
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 1: that much around and a lot of inexperience, so um,

498
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 1: he could just be he could kind of not be

499
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 1: much better than last year with him on Cardinals UM

500
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: down in Miami. So I think that, you know, and

501
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 1: then fit Pastrick. I mean, you know, he was good

502
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 1: because of what was around him. I I you know,

503
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 1: Mike Devan, G. Humphreys was really good. D Jacks like

504
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,199
Speaker 1: it's hard not to put up huge numbers. Okay, Howard

505
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 1: like we're thrown and guys like that. So I think

506
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 1: he's gonna come back down to Urgin. We've seen him

507
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 1: be just a carryover machine. So I think that that

508
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 1: team is gonna struggle to win games. Listen, you have

509
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 1: gone through, You've proven what a nerd you really are.

510
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: You look cool, you're coming to the office, you don't

511
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 1: take off your sunglasses. Um, I know how late you

512
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 1: go out. You're usually wearing your like cool retro members

513
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 1: only jacket. Um, looking better than anybody else. And yet

514
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:45,919
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, you're talking to me

515
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 1: about like Paul millsap road splits and getting deep, deep,

516
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 1: deep into like teams that have won three games and

517
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 1: how they do the next year. You were like revel

518
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:03,919
Speaker 1: like your nerd qualities. Oh that was blasphemos chet, but

519
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 1: I do appreciate the compliment. But you know, we need

520
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 1: to talk about one more thing at least before I

521
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,679
Speaker 1: get out of here. And that's just this Daniel Jones pick.

522
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 1: You need to talk about this Daniel Jones pick because

523
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 1: it's just it's almost gotten to the point where it's

524
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 1: like the people like, you know, regardless of what you're

525
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:22,919
Speaker 1: thinking him as a quarterback. It's like some of the

526
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:27,119
Speaker 1: reasons I've seen for for people, um kind of slandering

527
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 1: the pig don't really make as much sense and sounds

528
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 1: as smart as as they think it is, you know,

529
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 1: as they think they do, because it's like, Okay, everyone's like, well,

530
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 1: you took him at six when you could have got

531
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 1: him as seventeen. But if you were running a franchise

532
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 1: with that mentality, and you were any team between between

533
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 1: you know, after the Giants between six and seventeen, essentially

534
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: you would have been wrong because the team at six

535
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,199
Speaker 1: would have took them. So you can't have that mentality,

536
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: Like I think there's a lot of ways that you could,

537
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 1: um kind of say that that wasn't a good pick,

538
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: but that was that. To me, that's just such a

539
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: stupid one to say, oh, you could have you could

540
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 1: have waited, because no, you couldn't have, because you know,

541
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: just like I don't think any other if you didn't

542
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 1: expect a team to take them at that spot, and

543
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: then you would have been wrong. Um. Second, I think

544
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 1: David Gentleman's response to the whole thing you know about

545
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 1: oh well we want to follow the Kansas City model,

546
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 1: I think that's uh, you know, a shaky premise as well,

547
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 1: because like you remember, you remember the chief in tweeny seventeen,

548
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: right like they were you know, Alex Smith had like

549
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 1: the year of his life. Uh, the Albert Wilson led

550
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 1: the league in separation because and that was you know,

551
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: because the Tyreek Hill was drawing so much attention that

552
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,120
Speaker 1: you know, everyone was running wide open. Everyone thought Alex

553
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 1: Smith was a deep ball thrower. You know what is

554
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: Kansas City? You know now you see what happened with

555
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: Karee Hunt. We see happen with Tyry Kill. You know,

556
00:26:56,520 --> 00:27:00,719
Speaker 1: what if Kansas City's window was you know before like

557
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 1: in seen and what if the Kansas City model only

558
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 1: held him back? Right? Like what if Patrick mahomes In

559
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,119
Speaker 1: just does even better than Alex Smith? Because I mean

560
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,919
Speaker 1: everyone's running wide open. So I mean, I don't know

561
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 1: how much that sitting on the bench watching Alex Smith,

562
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: who plays completely different than him, really did. So like

563
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 1: I hope that David Gettleman is not that to me,

564
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 1: that would be a much bigger sin than making the

565
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 1: pick is, oh, we're gonna sit this guy behind, you know, Uh,

566
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 1: ghost of eu Im adding like what you know you

567
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 1: could learn from eu Im adding while starting like you

568
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 1: don't have to watch Eui Manning throw two yard passes

569
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,400
Speaker 1: into the ground to to to be a good quarterback

570
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:44,199
Speaker 1: for you know, to watch that for a year. So

571
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 1: I hope, I hope he's not really trying to follow that.

572
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 1: I'm hoping he's just saying that because he wants to

573
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 1: kind of show respect to Eui. So that's that's just

574
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 1: what I was thinking about that. By the way, you

575
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 1: haven't written that at all. And that is a brilliant

576
00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:00,439
Speaker 1: freaking take to take about Dave Gettleman saying that Chiefs

577
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 1: model and then could have two thousand seven teen could

578
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 1: have been the Chiefs window is genius. You need to

579
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 1: write that right now for tomorrow. WHOA I got you?

580
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: You get to do an interview and you get an assignment.

581
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 1: See what I do for you. It's okay, it's okay.

582
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,879
Speaker 1: You know, get the jockets and stuff. So you know,

583
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 1: I gotta you gotta pay you back and pay you

584
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 1: all to pay all the listeners back, are you know?

585
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 1: I know they want to they want to hear more

586
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 1: about why the why David get him in the dum

587
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: because that seems to be the best everyone's favorite topic

588
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: right now. But you've got a different You've got an

589
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 1: entirely different hot take on that. Chris Raybon, thank you

590
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 1: for coming on the Favorites. Coming up next on the Favorites,

591
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 1: Matt Jones. We're gonna talk about Kentucky Derby with Kentucky

592
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: Sports Radio Raybon. Thanks man, thank you joining me now

593
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 1: on the Favorites. One of our favorites from Kentucky Sports

594
00:28:56,080 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 1: Radio calling me from Lexington. Mr Matt Jones, contributor to

595
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 1: Action Network along with Drew Franklin. What's going on, man, Hey,

596
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 1: I'm doing great. Guy. Did a radio show Saturday with

597
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 1: another of your contributors, Jeff Schwartz. Got to know him

598
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: a little bit and now I have another Action Network

599
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,719
Speaker 1: for end. Were you up in Were you in Bristol

600
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 1: doing draft stuff with Jeff? Uh? Well, I did it

601
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 1: from Kentucky. But yeah, we hosted the NFL Draft preview

602
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 1: show on Saturday morning, so it was me, him and

603
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 1: Myer Metcalf. But I didn't really know him before. He

604
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 1: was great. Oh he's Jeff is fantastic. Jeff is awesome.

605
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 1: What um And you know what Jeff is. Jeff is

606
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:39,959
Speaker 1: an inveterate um baseball better. And since you've been contributing

607
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 1: to the Action Network, and since you have been talking

608
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 1: a lot about the app, you are making a lot

609
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 1: of baseball picks. Tell me how that's going for you

610
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 1: and why you decided to do it. He goes to

611
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 1: show you how weird game wins in general. Like, I

612
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 1: know probably more about college basketball and football than any sport,

613
00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: and yet I am found I'm a significantly better baseball

614
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: better even though I don't ever really know watch it

615
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 1: or no. I'm sure it's luck, but I've started. I

616
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 1: think I'm thirty seven and sixteen right now, and that's

617
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: crazy for for uh, for baseball. I think what I

618
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: like about it is I really like betting the over

619
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 1: and unders because I think if you look at I

620
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 1: think there's some value to be found if you look

621
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:25,959
Speaker 1: at weather, pitchers, lineups, etcetera. And I I've had a

622
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 1: lot of success betting the over under, specifically the unders

623
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 1: UH in cold weather games. I know that won't last forever,

624
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 1: but it's been. You know, It's an example of why

625
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: I actually like doing stuff with the Action Network. I

626
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 1: would have never thought about betting on baseball. I would

627
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: have probably said that seems like something for degenerates, and

628
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: maybe it's just that I've become a degenerate, but I

629
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 1: actually have enjoyed it quite a bit. Well, it's funny

630
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: you say that. So like baseball is one of those

631
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 1: sports where, um it is for hardcore every day gamblers.

632
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 1: It is such a volume board with so many games

633
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: that it's hard to just sort of dip in. It's

634
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: hard to like, Okay, I'm gonna bet on the Cardinals

635
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: and Cubs this weekend. If you haven't sort of kept

636
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: up with the pictures, how managers are using the bullpen,

637
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 1: who's playing, what, um like, what the weather is, all

638
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 1: those kinds of things, it's really challenging. So the fact

639
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 1: you're doing it as often as you do, I'm a

640
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 1: little afraid for you. Yeah. Well, I don't know. I

641
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 1: don't know why. I mean again, I'm sure it'll even out.

642
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 1: I'm sure i'll I'll sort regress to the mean at

643
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 1: some point. But I think, you know, it seemed to

644
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 1: me again, who knows, but in April, especially when you're

645
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 1: looking at weather patterns, you know, the ball doesn't fly.

646
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 1: I've been I've been on every like I'm a Reds fan,

647
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 1: and I know the Reds cannot score. So the unders

648
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 1: on the Reds has been amazing this year because they

649
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 1: can't hit. Therefore, starters under two hundred in batting average,

650
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 1: and so betting the unders on Red's games this year

651
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 1: is paid for my vacation. So it's a no as

652
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 1: a fan that they have great pitching and no hitting.

653
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 1: But as a as a gambler, it's been excellent. The

654
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 1: Reds are an interesting team to me. They have not

655
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 1: been relevant since so how do you even continue to

656
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: root for a team like that. It's not even like

657
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 1: you're rooting for a bad team. You're just rooting for

658
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 1: a team that doesn't matter, like they have not mattered

659
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 1: in forever. It's like a team. It's like a Southeastern

660
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 1: team in football, right, Like no one really talks about

661
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers, you know, no one really talks about

662
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons, like no one talks about the Tampa

663
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 1: Bay Buccaneers. The Reds are one of those teams where

664
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: I have a hard time figuring out why anybody would

665
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 1: be a fan of that team. Well, I root for

666
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 1: them in the sense of it gives me something to

667
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 1: do in the off season. I root for them more

668
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 1: of as a reason to go places, uh in the

669
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 1: summer to watch games. I don't you know when you're

670
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 1: a Kentucky sports fan, and I'm sure a lot of

671
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 1: people are fans of these are like this, Every game

672
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 1: is like living die. You don't get any fun games.

673
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 1: Every game is if you lose. You're depressed with baseball.

674
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: I enjoy it because they don't really care about any

675
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: game particularly, and so I can just enjoy it. I

676
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 1: guess you would say the way a normal human being

677
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 1: would enjoy sports. But I'm not a normal human being

678
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 1: when it comes to Kentucky. So that's what I like

679
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 1: about the Reds because there's a hundred and sixty two games.

680
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 1: Because I know that they're generally going to be terrible,

681
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 1: No particular game or season really bothers me, and that

682
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 1: makes it how many games will you watch? How many

683
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: Reds games will you watch? Well, in the last couple

684
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 1: of years, I've actually watched more. I mean I bought

685
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 1: season tickets this year for the first time, and I've

686
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 1: probably gone to I've gone to three or four already.

687
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 1: I'll go to probably thirty during the year and then

688
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 1: I give the others away and it's just you know,

689
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 1: but it's what I consider baseball the ultimate background noise.

690
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 1: It's a great thing to put on while you're doing

691
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 1: other things. You know, if you miss a play, who cares.

692
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 1: I think that's what makes it makes it work, how

693
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 1: much they trust in you for season tickets to the

694
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 1: Reds games. So I think we we. I'm I'm like

695
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 1: right behind the plate and uh like I'm like eight

696
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 1: rows back right behind the plate. It's it has its

697
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 1: own like bar area. And I think the tickets are

698
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 1: like seventy five bucks a game something like that. So

699
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 1: that's not it. That's not an insignificant investment, right, Just

700
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 1: it's like you put how many tickets you get two

701
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 1: I just get to So it's it's a hundred and

702
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: fifty bucks per ticket or whatever. Yeah, that's not that's

703
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: like it's gonna be ten twelve grand for the year. Yeah,

704
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 1: it's about a twelve grand. But I also consider it

705
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 1: like like it's the kind of thing that I give

706
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 1: them away to people as gifts. It's a good way.

707
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 1: Like people I sort of know and I'm interested in

708
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 1: talking to once a year, I can do it by

709
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:03,239
Speaker 1: giving them tickets. Be like, oh, hi, friend that I

710
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 1: never speak to, here's a couple of tickets and uh,

711
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 1: you know, it's a nice night you can go watch

712
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 1: and then when Mike Trout or somebody's in town I

713
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 1: can go. So I just feel like it's it's just

714
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 1: a positive thing for everybody. I like that, all right, So,

715
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 1: so that's not a bad thing. Do you think your

716
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:22,760
Speaker 1: twelve dollars would be better spent on Cincinnati Reds baseball

717
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:32,359
Speaker 1: or betting on Roadster in the Kentucky Derby? Well, that's

718
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 1: a difficult question. Uh. I haven't broken down how much

719
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 1: I like Roadster is a potential getting in my uh

720
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 1: Triffeica pool. But I would say the Reds give me

721
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 1: about twelve thousand dollars worth of entertainment. Kentucky can give

722
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 1: me a million dollars worth of entertainment or a heart attack.

723
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 1: With the Cincinnati Reds, I know exactly what I'm getting.

724
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 1: It's always going to be disappointing, Like you're gonna have

725
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 1: a nice night, You're gonna have a couple of It's

726
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 1: not disappointing because I know, like I have a theory, Chad,

727
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 1: I say this all the time. They're it's one of

728
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 1: my life's less and life is about expectations. I think

729
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 1: ninety percent of your happiness in life is about where

730
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: you set your expectations. And most of the people who

731
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 1: are unhappy in life. Part of the issue is their expectations.

732
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 1: So for me, I set the reds expectations as it's

733
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 1: going to be a nice night, I'm going to get

734
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:34,359
Speaker 1: a nice uh you know, stadium meal and uh, I'm

735
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: gonna sit in the in the breeze. And if that's

736
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 1: my expectations, then I'm always happy. I think you're right.

737
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 1: I might be setting my expectations for life too high.

738
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 1: Yeah it's not. But but I mean, you you want

739
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:49,400
Speaker 1: to do it for some things. But I didn't go

740
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 1: a lot of what like like take this is we're

741
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 1: getting off track here, but take relationships. Like if your

742
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 1: expectation in life is that my significant other has to

743
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 1: be perfect, you're destined to be miserable. But if your

744
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 1: expectation is is my life better with this person in it?

745
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 1: Then not, then that standard is can be met and

746
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 1: you can be happy. So that's the way I learned

747
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 1: many years ago. If you set expectations right, life is

748
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 1: generally a positive experience. Oh my god, my wife has

749
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 1: such low expectations. Was explains why she's still around after

750
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:30,319
Speaker 1: all these years. Well, I mean, she probably thinks that

751
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: being with the Chad Millman is better than not being

752
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,760
Speaker 1: with him, and so if that's it, then she's happy.

753
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 1: I think you've got that one entirely wrong, my friend.

754
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 1: What should my expectations be if I came to Louisville

755
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,839
Speaker 1: for the Kentucky Derby. Um, we talked about the race

756
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 1: for a few minutes, because they're they're basically right now

757
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:55,799
Speaker 1: like three sort of favorites and everybody else is in

758
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 1: double digits. Like three. The three favorites right now are

759
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 1: that that's a great race, though to make money on it,

760
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 1: like like the standard that it is right now for

761
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 1: the Derby, and this happens about once every three or

762
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 1: four years. To me is the standard as to how

763
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: the Derby is an awesome day of gambling. But but

764
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 1: you're right if you can get three, if you I

765
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 1: had somebody give me a tip once. It's just a

766
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 1: local guy there at Churchill Downs, and it has been

767
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 1: the tip that is the best tip anyone's ever given me.

768
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 1: If you go back through history and look at the

769
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 1: Derby in the last twelve or fifteen years, which is

770
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 1: I would say, once the Internet has made it to

771
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 1: where gambling has kind of evened out in horse racing,

772
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 1: the Derby almost inevitably in the exacta and excuse me.

773
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 1: The trifect and the super fector includes two of the

774
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 1: three favorites, one medium shot, and one long shot. The

775
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 1: SuperFect of the last four years two of the three favorites,

776
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 1: one medium shot, one long shot. If you back and look,

777
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,800
Speaker 1: I think it's something like nine of the last twelve

778
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 1: years have followed that pattern. And so to me, the

779
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:10,919
Speaker 1: key and gambling and for the just for the derby,

780
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 1: because there's so many horses and so much stupid money.

781
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:15,760
Speaker 1: If you've got to look at the free three favorite

782
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,359
Speaker 1: and you've got to commit to two of them and

783
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 1: one of them you've got to throw out, and so

784
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 1: all of your betting patterns have to start with that.

785
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:26,360
Speaker 1: Which of the three favorites? Do I not believe it

786
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,879
Speaker 1: only once in the last fifteen years of the three

787
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 1: favorites come one to three. So you've got to get

788
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 1: rid of one of them, and that's the part. If

789
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 1: you can get rid of the right one, then I

790
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 1: think you have a really good chance of making money.

791
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 1: And that's what I always do. So I look for

792
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:43,919
Speaker 1: two of the three favorites, two middle of the road

793
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,760
Speaker 1: horses in a long shot. I play with those five

794
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 1: horses and if you can hit them, then you have

795
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 1: a chance of making like serious money. So the three

796
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 1: favorites right now are Beach and Roadster, who are both

797
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:02,240
Speaker 1: in the say seven to to five to one range,

798
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 1: and Improbable, which is a Bob Bafford horse. Um, and

799
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 1: that's it. Anywhere from five to one to eight to one.

800
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 1: So very sort of superficially if you're looking at those

801
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 1: three horses right now, knowing it's still like early in

802
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 1: the week, and you know, whisper Wednesday hasn't happened when

803
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 1: like everyone and the other wise guys start talking about

804
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 1: which horses day like the best? Um, how should I

805
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:31,440
Speaker 1: even be going about my research for deciding Omaha Beach,

806
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 1: Roadster or Improbable. Well, I'm I'm I'm not even Omaha

807
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 1: Beach because I think Omah Beach is. You know, every

808
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 1: two to three years you get a super talented horse.

809
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 1: Now we've been blessed at the Derby in the last

810
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 1: few years with a couple of those, not just uh,

811
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,359
Speaker 1: you know, not not not just American Pharaoh and and

812
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 1: and and Justify, but other others as well that have

813
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,240
Speaker 1: come through. It had been very good. I think Omaha

814
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,320
Speaker 1: Beach is not quite on that level, but I'm putting

815
00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 1: Omaha Beach here. I haven't broken down the roads turning

816
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 1: probable enough, but I would say this, I I it

817
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,959
Speaker 1: is very rare at the derby. Win Baffort's not even

818
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 1: in the conversation. So I'm going to look at those

819
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 1: two and one of the things I'm gonna look at

820
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 1: specifically is how do they do in fields of six

821
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 1: or more horses? And then I'm gonna really look to

822
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 1: see when they have been tested and they have faced traffic,

823
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 1: what happens, because I think the thing that's the hardest

824
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: to predicted the derby is the traffic. No matter what,

825
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,440
Speaker 1: unless you're one of these horses like Justified, it just

826
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 1: comes out at the beginning and just run away. You're

827
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:39,799
Speaker 1: gonna face traffic and some horses just don't like it.

828
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 1: So those will be the things that I will look at.

829
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 1: But I'm not leaving Omaha Beach out, so then I'm

830
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: gonna drop one of those two. And then the key

831
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 1: is figuring out the moderates and the long shots. And

832
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 1: there really is a lot of local knowledge to that.

833
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 1: You talk about Whisper Wednesday, But over the years I've

834
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: hit the super fact on the on the Derby, I

835
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 1: think two of the last five years and then three

836
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 1: of the last seven when that's happened, it's always been

837
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 1: because I've had the right long shot. And that really

838
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 1: is something that for whatever reason, local knowledge seems to

839
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 1: matter because they see that coming with the with the

840
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 1: long shots how they work that day, and so Wednesday

841
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 1: I do go out of the track Wednesday, That's my

842
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 1: day to find the long shot I'm throwing in. I

843
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 1: kind of wish I was coming down to Louisville and

844
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:29,280
Speaker 1: spending the week with you. You've got a new restaurant

845
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:32,440
Speaker 1: in Lexington, Like what happens for you the week of

846
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 1: the week of the Derby? This week? Well, you see,

847
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 1: you know what's weird is the Derby is one of

848
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 1: these events that, like everybody in Kentucky has something about it.

849
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 1: They like, you have the hardcore horse people right if

850
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 1: they love it because of the horse action. It's also

851
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 1: a massive party. I mean, I don't think unless you've

852
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:54,320
Speaker 1: ever been, I don't think people realize what a huge

853
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 1: party it is. Rulville becomes for a weekend the most

854
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 1: fun place in the country. And and I love Kentucky,

855
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:03,360
Speaker 1: but it's not like that any other weekend, but for

856
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:07,920
Speaker 1: one weekend, there are parties everywhere. Every night. The track

857
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:10,280
Speaker 1: is crazy. There are people from all over the world

858
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 1: here and no matter what you do, it's fun. So

859
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:16,400
Speaker 1: I really enjoy it because I just like to float

860
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:18,800
Speaker 1: to different types of events. I went through a period

861
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:20,799
Speaker 1: that I went to all those parties. That period has

862
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 1: kind of passed, so I kind of enjoy it now

863
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 1: for the horse racing and the people watching and uh,

864
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 1: the horse racing, they really start on Wednesday. On Wednesday

865
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 1: becomes the day that a lot of the sort of

866
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 1: hardcore horse people go. Thursday they call Furby. That's when

867
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:40,760
Speaker 1: the kind of people, it's the people of Kentucky social

868
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:45,400
Speaker 1: gathering Oaks and Derby have now become absolute wild scenes

869
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 1: that like, it's hard to say it has any culture

870
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:55,920
Speaker 1: beyond trying to make sure you get home alive. Uh

871
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 1: all right, well listen. That show is a Kentucky sports

872
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 1: radio contributor to the Action Network. UM. I hope you

873
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 1: make it through the week alive. We'd like you to

874
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 1: continue doing stuff for us, so that would be great.

875
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 1: If nothing else, I think the Reds need you behind

876
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 1: home plate showing them on. UM, please get through the

877
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:15,879
Speaker 1: get through the week safely. Let me say this about

878
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 1: for people who are listening to this. You may be

879
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 1: like casual I mean hardcore horse racing people no more

880
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 1: about it than than than me. But the casual horse

881
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 1: racing people, here's what I've found over the years. The

882
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 1: surprising money out there is in the lead up to

883
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 1: the Derby races, because the Derby is full of stupid money.

884
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 1: But the Derby, you know, people care about it enough.

885
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 1: But there's also a lot of smart money. The races

886
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 1: on Derby Day that are not the Derby. That track

887
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 1: is filled with idiots betting, and there is so much

888
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 1: room to win on those races, races about five through

889
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 1: pen on the card that if you will do your research,

890
00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 1: I think Breeders Cup Early and Derby Early Day it's

891
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 1: where you make money. It's good advice. People should check

892
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 1: out what you're gonna be writing on Action Network so

893
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 1: they can what you and Drew Franklin do so they

894
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:14,280
Speaker 1: can get a little bit advice on that. Matt Jones,

895
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 1: thank you, brother, appreciate it. Hey, thank you all right,

896
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 1: Thank you very much. To Chris Raybond from the Action Network.

897
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 1: Thank you very much to Matt Jones from Kentucky Sports

898
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 1: Radio and the Action Network. This has been the favorites

899
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 1: the podcast. Download the podcast from Apple Podcast, write a review,

900
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 1: rate US subscribe. Downloaded from radio dot com, slash the

901
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:41,720
Speaker 1: Action Network. Until next time, I'm Chad Nolman.