1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. The 5 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: story is just the data. Globally, it's fantastic, whether it's 6 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: the United States, Europe or Asia. Couldn't get much better. 7 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 1: John Sylvia Wells, Fargo Chief Economists, joins us now here 8 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 1: in New York City. John, always great to catch up 9 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 1: with you. Thank you. Is this peak growth? Can it 10 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 1: get any better? Oh? I think that peak growth for 11 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 1: this year eighteen, But I don't think it gets better 12 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: and it's not sustainable going into I think you've got 13 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: a big jump here. You've got a good would gain equipment. Uh, 14 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: spending in the United States housing starts has improved. Also 15 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 1: in the United States, and as you just mentioned, Uh, 16 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: the European economies have surprised US in the last year, 17 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:13,479 Speaker 1: and they continue to surprise us, but they will settle 18 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: down to a more longer term trend. But it is 19 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 1: good to see those positives. John, What do you see 20 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:20,400 Speaker 1: is more sustainable. What's happening in Europe or what is 21 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 1: happening in the United States. Well, I think for more sustainable, 22 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: I would go with Europe. I think there there have 23 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 1: been some changes there. They continue to do fundamental reform 24 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:34,039 Speaker 1: for different nations, and I think they've got their story together. 25 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 1: With respect to trade, I am more concerned Jonathan with trade, 26 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: as Tom and I had discussed earlier today. Uh, you know, 27 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:43,679 Speaker 1: what are we actually going to do to NAFTA? Do 28 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 1: we understand the importance of naftal the United States? So 29 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: I like the European sustainability. Do you see reason for 30 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 1: that to be enthusiasm in the equity market? With the 31 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 1: Dow set to go through twenty five thousand today for 32 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 1: the first time ever, the SMP northred yesterday for the 33 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: first time ever, we keep grinding our old time highs. 34 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 1: Does it make sense to you, John right now? It 35 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: does because you've gotten changes in fiscal policy, You've got 36 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: the p M I s that have done really well, 37 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 1: sustainable gains and employment means the consumer continues to move forward, 38 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 1: and you have relative peace in the world. Good morning, everyone, 39 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:21,920 Speaker 1: John farre and time Keene thrilled you with us and 40 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: We've got some really constructive news here. This is the 41 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 1: micro news. It's made John Sylvia's career in particularly with 42 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 1: his work of the National Association for Business and Pharmaceutical Economics. 43 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 1: Walgreens Boots. What's boots? John Boots is um like Dwayne 44 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 1: read here. Okay, so it's like British Walens. Yes, so 45 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: you go and you can buy like what you need 46 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: for the bathroom to have a wash and brush your teeth. 47 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: I just had the December teeth brush. Walgreens Boots out 48 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: with important numbers and in the one headline and want 49 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:56,919 Speaker 1: to with their upgrade the one headline, I want to 50 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: mention John Sylvia, which folds into your economics reach l 51 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 1: Pharmacy comp sales four point seven percent, which is away 52 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: from fed mombo jumbo nominal g d P shows corporate 53 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 1: indications of picking up absolutely and for a traveler who 54 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: does go to London least twice a year, Boots is 55 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 1: essential for all those little things. Honestly, Boots fantastic, Tom, 56 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 1: It is fantastic. When I go into the airport at 57 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 1: JFK and I don't see a Boots. There is a 58 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 1: Boot to every airport in the UK and it's got everything. 59 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 1: Thank you for that important information, Mr Fer. But it 60 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: shows you consumer strength. That's what it's telling you. That 61 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: people are going into those stores and actually communing things ahead. 62 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: So I'm working with Dr hass In, the President of 63 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: United States, and I'm saying, all this doom and gloom, 64 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 1: look at the animal spirit. How much bigger will the 65 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 1: animal spirit be? Do we go from the gloom of 66 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: four percent nominal GDP? Can you get to a six 67 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: percent nominal? I can't get get to six percent, and 68 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 1: maybe someone else can get there. The President would do that. Wow, 69 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 1: But I'll give you a two and a half percent 70 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: g d P. Let's say a year from now, and 71 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: I'll give you two two and a quarter percent, So 72 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: maybe four four and a half to five is a 73 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 1: six percent is a little bit too. But these corporate Honeywell, 74 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 1: Walgreens and many others, I'm beginning to see the lift 75 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 1: and you know organic absolutely yeah, I mean we can 76 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 1: see that. For the last four or five years, it's 77 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 1: been economic growth around to two and a quarter and 78 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 1: now we're moving up to two and a half maybe 79 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 1: two and three quoters. That's great. Give us a briefing 80 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: before we go to Jim blast One and Bill Gross Tomorrow, 81 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,239 Speaker 1: Dr Sylvia give us a briefing on what we need 82 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 1: to know about the immediacy of wage growth. Our wages 83 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 1: actually going up adjusted for inflation. Yes, that's a point 84 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: point time that's overlooked. It's real wages. But total real 85 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: compensation has really improved because once again people care about 86 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: their benefits, particularly healthcare benefit. Company station is not part 87 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 1: of the unemployment number. That's plain to our audience. How 88 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: that's published, Well, it's published again by the federal government 89 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:13,919 Speaker 1: in the United States, but it takes into consideration the pensions, 90 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 1: takes into considerate healthcare, life insurance, disability insurance, all those 91 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 1: other things that Tom are not taxed. So the wages 92 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 1: attacks and workers have realized over the last three or 93 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:29,919 Speaker 1: forty years, if I'm getting the compensation through insurance that 94 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: is not tax then my total income actually goes up. 95 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 1: It's a really good point, John. Before we let you go, 96 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 1: can we get to the economics of cold weather. It's 97 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 1: snowing outside. Tom doesn't want to talk about the hysteria. 98 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 1: But Q one after Q one, after Q one after 99 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 1: Q one in the United States of America, we have 100 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: had soft growth after soft growth, and economists continually missed 101 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: the story to your important observation, what we have around 102 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 1: at John Farroll is a big asterisk every first quarter. 103 00:05:57,320 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: And are you it wasn't like that. Now we've got 104 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 1: this and it feels like we're going to do it 105 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 1: all over again, and we are. How many economists, including yourself, John, 106 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: are going to come out of the next couple of 107 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 1: weeks and say with downgrade and knock Q one estimates 108 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 1: because of the weather. I would say the majority will 109 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:17,920 Speaker 1: again because this again, when you're impacting New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, 110 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: southern New England, that is a huge economic powerhouse in 111 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 1: the United States. You know, as as Tom was mentioning earlier, 112 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:26,599 Speaker 1: if you have an earthquake in San Francisco, that's a 113 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:30,479 Speaker 1: minor earthquake, okay, but if it's significant, that economic impact 114 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,359 Speaker 1: is significant. We got one minute left with you. No 115 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: one cares about this. How did the Boston Red Sox 116 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 1: respond to the New York Yankees? The Yankees have going 117 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 1: to Aaron Judge is gonna lead off. They've got this 118 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 1: guy from Miami, this piece of meat from Miami. It's 119 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,280 Speaker 1: gonna win a hundred and forty baseball games. How does 120 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: Team Red Sox respond? Uh? Pitch around the opening Uh? 121 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: Eight intentional walks per game? Eight intentional walks per game? 122 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 1: Just walk them and deal with all the rest of 123 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 1: the line up. You don't see any strategic thing like 124 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 1: in a case of there against lager beer or anything. 125 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: Now he's coming back, is coming back. It's coming entrepreneurial 126 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: spirit of New England, right, John Sylvia, thank you so much. 127 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: With Wills Fargo now living in the Carolina is our 128 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: last conversation with the amble from Toughs Lector School was 129 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: most distressing. James Tavitis has been a student of our Navy, 130 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 1: of our military, and now teaches students on international relations 131 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: at Tufts. Admiral stevinus, wonderful to have you with us 132 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 1: this morning. Our men are in danger, or sailors are 133 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 1: in danger? Are women are in danger? Off boost on 134 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 1: South Korea? Where it's a chilly thirty five degrees this morning. 135 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: We've got boats out at sea, UH doing what our 136 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:04,679 Speaker 1: military show the flag, et cetera. How damaged are they 137 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: by the silliness the discourse of Washington? I think they 138 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 1: are able to tune it out. Tom and that's kind 139 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: of the good news. First of all, particularly our worships 140 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 1: at sea. Uh, don't gather around and watch CNN seven. 141 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: They're so busy. They've got contacts in the ocean around them, 142 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: they've got planes overhead, they're tracking missile flying. They are 143 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 1: not focused on Washington. And if they did, I think 144 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 1: they would still tune it out because they have that 145 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 1: kind of ethos that says, we're out here, we stand 146 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 1: on the wall to protect our nation. We're not going 147 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 1: to get caught up in the day to day. So 148 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: on that score, I feel pretty good. Give us your 149 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 1: update on the adult nous of the adults our General Kelly, 150 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: our General Madis, and other adults of Washington doing this morning. 151 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 1: Uh Well, I would say on a scale of one 152 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: to ten, they have a job that's about a thirteen. 153 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: This is a tough operation to effectively put guard rails 154 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 1: around a presidency that is too impulsive, too erratic, too unpredictable. 155 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: I would say they're still in the game, particularly the 156 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: two you mentioned or four star US Marine Corps. General's 157 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,319 Speaker 1: seen a lot of combat. Uh, you know, they've seen worse. 158 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 1: They'll they'll stay with the program. We also ought to 159 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 1: be concerned about three star General hr McMaster national Security Advisor. 160 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 1: He's just done a very good job getting out a 161 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:37,679 Speaker 1: new national security strategy which is actually shockingly shockingly normal. 162 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 1: So I think that team is doing pretty well. The 163 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:43,239 Speaker 1: one to watch that I'm worried about is Rex Tillerson 164 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: over at State. I think his stock is very low. 165 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 1: I think his morale is very low. I know his 166 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 1: department's morale is very low. I suspect we'll see that 167 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:55,679 Speaker 1: change earlier this year. And I'm really you worried about 168 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 1: Rex Titterson, the Secretary of State? Are you worried about 169 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 1: the State Department? The latter um secretaries come and go. 170 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 1: The department is a generational operation. You have to bring 171 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 1: in young foreign service officers who are willing to devote 172 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 1: themselves for ten twenty thirty years to create that cadre 173 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 1: of professional ambassadors. At the far end, the State Department 174 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: is down fifty five zero percent in applications this year. 175 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 1: That's shocking. There is a concern that the State Department 176 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 1: is being gutted. There's a lot being written about it 177 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 1: and reported about it over the last twelve months. Key 178 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: individuals that should be in key areas of the world 179 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 1: representing the United States no longer there animal. What are 180 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: the consequences of that? Are they immediate? Are they around 181 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 1: the corner or they slow burning over several decades. You know, 182 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 1: they're all three and I'll give you a practical example 183 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 1: of each. In the immediate term. What this does is 184 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: it overweights us in the military instrument. Believe me, We've 185 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,719 Speaker 1: got all the generals and admirals we need um. If 186 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:00,719 Speaker 1: we don't have ambassadors to kind of put balance, our 187 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 1: program overweights towards hard power in the if you will, 188 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 1: medium term, we don't have the expertise on the ground. 189 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: In the long term diplomatic efforts in the Balkans, in Afghanistan, 190 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:14,959 Speaker 1: and long term, as I said, we lose that cadre 191 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: of professional ambassadors twenty thirty years from now. So I'm 192 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:21,719 Speaker 1: very worried about State Department and Stavids. Were you ever 193 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 1: on a p T boat. I never was assigned to 194 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 1: the crew of one time, but of course I've been 195 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 1: on the many many times all over, particularly in the 196 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,680 Speaker 1: Caribbean for example, doing counter narcotics. I mean, folks, that 197 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:37,319 Speaker 1: it resonates so much. Of course, with President Kennedy, I 198 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 1: think of a close quarters p T boats in the 199 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 1: United States Navy. Robert bots a classic text Admiral Stevidez. 200 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: Here's the latest tweet I guess on p T boats 201 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 1: by the President United States. Well, all of the failed 202 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 1: quote experts on quote, he doesn't mention you animal weighing in? 203 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: Does anybody really believe that talks and dialogues would be 204 00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 1: going on between North and South Korea right now if 205 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: I wasn't firm, strong and willing to commit our total 206 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 1: quote might unquote against the North fools? But talks are 207 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: a good thing. What is what is an amateur like 208 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: Tom Keane or President Trump or John Ferrell? What do 209 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: we know about? Might you lived it? What? What is 210 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 1: the might of our military? How would you lecture civilians? Well, 211 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 1: first of all, I think this is part of the 212 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: pattern of a president who thinks he's the reason that 213 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 1: airlines are not crashing out of the sky. Um, it's 214 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: just he is living in a fantasy world. And I 215 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 1: would say that the might of the United States is 216 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: certainly part of this. But the real driver of the 217 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 1: chain of events were in the middle of is Kim 218 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 1: Jong Hunt And he is the one that is step 219 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,280 Speaker 1: or two ahead of US tactically. So I think the 220 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 1: president ought to get some balance in his rhetoric, rely 221 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 1: on the professional US around him, build a coherent deterrent, 222 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: you cyber offensively, put up maritime interception operations. He's done 223 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 1: none of that um so far. What we see as 224 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 1: a chain of events driven by a young, unpredictable dictator 225 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 1: in the North. In our own unpredictable president needs to 226 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 1: up his game if we're going to succeed diplomatically in 227 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 1: resolving this. John, and on the plane flight back from 228 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 1: the Old World, thank you British Air for the great flight. 229 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,200 Speaker 1: I watched one of the recent Churchill epics yea, and 230 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: there was Churchill being lectured by the general from the 231 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 1: United States in a kind way, Dwight David Eisenhower about 232 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:42,199 Speaker 1: excuse me, sir, you're a civilian. I mean, John Ferroll. 233 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 1: This this is not just about America now, its every institution, 234 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 1: about the world response and global institutions. But Adam Well, 235 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 1: you've touched on something really important, and that's the overweight 236 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 1: of hard power, the over dependence on hard power. Is 237 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:58,679 Speaker 1: this an administration that you think fails to understand seft 238 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 1: power or is it an administration that has said, well, 239 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:03,439 Speaker 1: it hasn't worked for the last twenty years to deal 240 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 1: with the threat of North Korea, so why should we 241 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 1: continue down this path? I think the former John and 242 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 1: if we think about where we've used the mix of 243 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: hard and soft power, that's where we succeed. And that's 244 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 1: the subtlety that this administration thus far has not grasped. 245 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 1: For example, in the Balkans, we use hard power initially, 246 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 1: but it's been soft power, the economics, the private public partnering, 247 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 1: the development aid that's brought to Balkans where it is 248 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 1: same in Columbia for example, same in Sri Lanka. It's 249 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 1: that balance of hard and soft power in that Back 250 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: to your earlier question is why worry about a lack 251 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: of the State Department in the case of the United States, 252 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 1: where we don't have influencers who drive us towards balancing 253 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 1: hard power when you need it, but soft power for 254 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 1: the long came to win. In the scenario, I'm gonna 255 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 1: assume it's not the Philippines. You're not going to line 256 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: up the Missouri sixty miles offshore of North Korea and 257 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 1: bombom what is a quote unquote might attack that the 258 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 1: President would envision. I mean, how do you attack North Korea? 259 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 1: I don't understand tactically, how do you attack You cannot 260 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 1: conduct an attack that does not escalate into a war 261 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 1: on the peninsula, which will cause at a minimum a 262 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 1: million but somewhere in the range of two to four 263 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 1: million casualty stomp. And that's because of the geography where 264 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 1: Soul sits right under the guns of North Korea, and 265 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 1: because we have a dictator in the North who already 266 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 1: has tactical nuclear weapons that he can use in the 267 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:47,119 Speaker 1: immediate context of the conflict. So any kind of military 268 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 1: response is highly, highly fraught. Edmill, thank you so much. 269 00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 1: Here into the lecture, unlike this morning with animals, David, 270 00:15:54,600 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: is the Tufts in the Fletcher School, m Let's said. 271 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 1: The longest joint is now port folio manager over at 272 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: Oppenheimer Funds. As we see, what did you say, Tompson 273 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 1: Warmth on the tape future is positive at five points 274 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 1: on the SMP five Dow futures up a six twenty 275 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 1: five K and site nor hundred on the SMP five 276 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 1: hundred yesterday, Alessio, is this as good as it gets? 277 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: With the data on both sides of the Atlantic looking 278 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: very very nice Good morning, Tom and John. Yes, I 279 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: mean we we couldn't wish for a better global economic outlook. 280 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 1: I mean, we've seen the recent data literally over the 281 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: last couple of days, especially with the business services such 282 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 1: as the p mzing IM survey, really suggesting a continuation 283 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: of this very strong momentum in the development markets. But 284 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: also we're seeing good news in the emerging world. So 285 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: we continue to see what looks like the best global 286 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 1: growth synchronization, the best global growth acceleration we have seen 287 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,880 Speaker 1: in over a decade, So peak growth. When we start 288 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:10,639 Speaker 1: talking about peak growth, that that's a very important point 289 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 1: because we m we begin to see, particularly in the 290 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 1: US UM the flattening of the yield curve um which 291 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: and we're very early stages, but that's flattening of the 292 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:24,639 Speaker 1: yield curve. Is a reminder, of course that the FED 293 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 1: has been tightening rates now for a while. I'll date 294 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,920 Speaker 1: at the at a gradual pace. I think it's still 295 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:35,439 Speaker 1: early to talk about growth peak. We we seem to 296 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 1: be in a solid fooding throughout the first half of 297 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:41,479 Speaker 1: the year, and you know, of course the economy always 298 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 1: go through some some soft patches, but I think we 299 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 1: we can't really start worrying about a serious downturn for 300 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: at least at least another year. What is your calling dollar? 301 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: I mean, it's really a way from your remit, but 302 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:56,359 Speaker 1: I want to go there. I mean, you look at 303 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: dollar dynamics and and John and I saw a lot 304 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 1: of different opinions at the end of the year. Is 305 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: it a flow story with money flowing into Euro money 306 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:09,439 Speaker 1: flowing into the American system as well? Well, you know, 307 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 1: the dollar question is is a particularly interesting one given 308 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:16,639 Speaker 1: the anomalies that we've seen last year, that we expect 309 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,879 Speaker 1: a dollar to continue to UH, to continue the weakening 310 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 1: trend that has experienced in sev outbet maybe at a 311 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: more gradual pace and some more rangebound price dynamics. But 312 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: why that dollar weakening? Because the first question is why 313 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 1: is the dollar weakening when the FED is raising rates? UH. 314 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 1: There has been almost an unprecedented disconnect between rate differentials 315 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: and currency performance, and you see it particularly with the 316 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 1: euro last year. We expect that to continue somewhat. This 317 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: environment is very reminiscent to me of what we saw 318 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 1: in the early two thousands, say two thousand, two, two 319 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 1: and four, where despite the FED raising rates and the 320 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: c B not raising rates the or of strengthen the 321 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 1: dollar weekend. Why we are seeing that late cycle dynamics 322 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 1: for the US where the current account differential between the 323 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:11,919 Speaker 1: US and the Eurozone is extremely wide. The Eurozone and 324 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:16,160 Speaker 1: Japan have very wide current account surpluses. And and those 325 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,479 Speaker 1: are some of the structural flows that you Tom are 326 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 1: referring to, some of the structural frows in the background 327 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:25,639 Speaker 1: that are supporting UH foreign currencies. On top of it, 328 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:29,320 Speaker 1: we believe that the biggest driver of capital flows will 329 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 1: be the equity side. We continued to expect our performance 330 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:38,160 Speaker 1: of European and emerging market growth versus US growth, and 331 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:43,920 Speaker 1: that typically leads US capital US investors to deploy capital 332 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 1: into foreign markets, which we know is typically unheedged unless 333 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: you know, there's a point where bond market dynamics really 334 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:57,840 Speaker 1: and abruptly folds into stock market dynamics. Review for US, 335 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 1: how does that work? Rising yield? How does it fold 336 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:06,879 Speaker 1: into stock market effects? UM? I would say there's a 337 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: two three channels here to to keep in mind, there 338 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,639 Speaker 1: is the the and and bond markets effect equity markets 339 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:16,959 Speaker 1: with a with a long UM lead UH. The The 340 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 1: first and most important channel in my opinion is the 341 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 1: is the tightening of financial conditions that is represented the 342 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 1: first and foremost by the flattening of the yolker. Right, 343 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 1: so as the as the yelker flattens gradually that these 344 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 1: incentivizes the banks from credit creation over time. Right, they 345 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 1: borrow in the short end and they land at the 346 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:40,679 Speaker 1: long end of plus a credit spread. As as the 347 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 1: availability of the term premium over time in the long 348 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 1: term um gets reduced. Banks of course have less of 349 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 1: an incentive to to land, to extend credit, and most 350 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: importantly in some cases, to even roll over credit. So 351 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: what happens is then towards the end of the cycle, 352 00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 1: if banks stopped rolling over their credit, highly level companies UH, 353 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 1: towards the end of the cycle find themselves with an 354 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 1: economy they're explowing and with credit not being rolled over. 355 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 1: And that's how then it translates. I would say, the 356 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,359 Speaker 1: transmission mechanism is from the yield curve to the bond 357 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 1: market and credit spreads and then eventually to the stock market. 358 00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 1: But unless yeah, that's not happening yet. Because deposit better 359 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,399 Speaker 1: is so low for many of these banks, the the 360 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 1: interest that they pay on deposits to depositors is incredibly love. 361 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 1: It hasn't been picking up. So the net interest margin, 362 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:31,640 Speaker 1: despite the flat yield curve, has been picking up because 363 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 1: they're passing on the higher rates over at the FED 364 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 1: two loans that they create. Do you see that dynamic 365 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:39,920 Speaker 1: staying in place over the next couple of years, really 366 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,359 Speaker 1: low deposit beta, and that essentially means that net interest 367 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 1: marches at banks hold up. Yes, and you see some 368 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,600 Speaker 1: some some continuation of death for quite some time. And 369 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:52,399 Speaker 1: actually if you look in Tom you were alluding to 370 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 1: the two stands, but if we actually look at the 371 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,760 Speaker 1: three months of ten year, we're still about a hundred 372 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 1: hundred and ten basis points. Uh so. And also to 373 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 1: the point that John was making, so three month rade 374 00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 1: are are much lower than than two year rates, and 375 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 1: I think for the purpose of the credit transmission, the 376 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 1: three month a ten year is more indicative. Furthermore, I 377 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 1: would say that the first confirmation of that transmission mechanism 378 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,160 Speaker 1: is still be seen in lending standards. And at the moment, 379 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 1: all the set surveys show the lending standards remained very generous, 380 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 1: both for large firms and small firms. So that's where 381 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,320 Speaker 1: we're not worried yet about the flatting of the yield curve. 382 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 1: N should we dazzle Bloomberg Radio audience and put the 383 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,640 Speaker 1: threes tens chart out on Twitter place? I think we should. 384 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 1: You should absolutely do that. What you're doing that, I 385 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,400 Speaker 1: want to make the horizontal line that beautiful Appenheimer Funds. 386 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,760 Speaker 1: I'm going to ask the lessie an important question. Now. 387 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 1: We just talked about really strong data, really decent a 388 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 1: d P report. We had our sam yesterday, the strongest 389 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,439 Speaker 1: sense I believe, two thousand and four. Yet we're reconciling 390 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 1: that with a flatter yield curve. Why is it only 391 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,919 Speaker 1: the front end of the curve of the s adjusting 392 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 1: to a better economy. Why are we not saying you'll 393 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:08,119 Speaker 1: to pick up further down a curve unlessia Because the 394 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:11,640 Speaker 1: three month is really controlled by the set. The two 395 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: year part of the curve is really driven by market 396 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: participants anticipating FED hikes. The three months is really ultimately 397 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,919 Speaker 1: the fat funds rate, and it's a reflection of the 398 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:26,080 Speaker 1: fact that the seed is hiking at a much much 399 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:30,159 Speaker 1: more gradual taste than historically we have seen with this 400 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 1: strength in the economic data, and there reason being as 401 00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 1: we all know the puzzle with the inflation picture. The 402 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 1: latest FED minutes revealed again the puzzle that the steadies facing. 403 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 1: They have clearly upgraded their growth projections, even incorporated the 404 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 1: common fiscal expansion, yet they have still revived higher their 405 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 1: inflation numbers. They are taking with this puzzle unless you've 406 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 1: got to leave it there, unless you're the longest. Thank 407 00:23:56,040 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 1: you so much with that, m Thanks for listening to 408 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on 409 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:15,200 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 410 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You can 411 00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio