1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg PENL podcast. I'm Paul swing you 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits. Each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. We want to stick with we 8 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 1: work withdrawing its initial public offering perspectives. After a tumultuous month, 9 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: we are seeing some movement in the bonds going lower 10 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: now at their lowest levels. Wow, at eight seven cents 11 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 1: uh and a quarter uh per on the dollar. And this, 12 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 1: you know, comes at a time when borrowing casts are 13 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,160 Speaker 1: supposedly lower. Not for we work joining us nationally, boss 14 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 1: who covers all things up finance for us here at Bloomberg. 15 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: I'm wondering this doesn't come as a surprise. No, no, 16 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:52,279 Speaker 1: I mean this is this is something that's been known exactly, 17 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: so it's not a shocker, right. I mean that they 18 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 1: were going to delay their I p O. The question 19 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: that's looming over everyone's minds two things is when will 20 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: this happen, Will it ever happen? And how are they 21 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: going to raise money without a happening? So what is 22 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 1: the thinking here? Because I know that they had a 23 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 1: big debt financing that was gonna was contingent upon them 24 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: going public, that obviously is not going to happen. And 25 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: is Leasa's point out earlier they are going to need 26 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 1: cash in the relative near term? Is there a plan 27 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 1: out there for this company? So right now they're in 28 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:28,320 Speaker 1: talks for multiple things potentially happening here. H soft Bank 29 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 1: may make another equity injection, but with the ft actually 30 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 1: reporting that it could be more than a billion dollars, 31 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 1: I mean that that is huge. Remember, the interesting thing 32 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 1: about soft Bank making another injection is we're waiting right 33 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: now on whether soft Bank is going to write down 34 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:44,559 Speaker 1: the stake of their we Work investment. And soft Bank 35 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 1: is already bleeding right now from a lot of different 36 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: investments that are that are troubled right now. Just to 37 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: put this in a perspective, when Jefferies took a write 38 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: down on their we Work stake of less than one percent, 39 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 1: it was over a hundred million dollars. And so the 40 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 1: we Work right down with the stake of almost maybe 41 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: a little more. When you count how much they have 42 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 1: in UM convertible shares, it could be very significant. So 43 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 1: how are they going to make another equity injection when 44 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 1: they're already writing down their existing stake? Could be really 45 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,360 Speaker 1: interesting tension. Another interesting tension is what's going on in 46 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 1: the C suite at JP Morgan, which I believe was 47 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: going to be the lead banker on the I p OH. 48 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 1: How big of a liability is this for them? So 49 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: think about how many aspects they have connections to we work, right, 50 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 1: they have the it's it's something like a margin loan. 51 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 1: So Adam Newman took out a loan based on his 52 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: his stock hundreds of millions of dollars led by JP Morgan. 53 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: JP Morgan also is responsible for the mortgages for Adam 54 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 1: Newman's own homes. They also have exposure to a lot 55 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:51,399 Speaker 1: of the buildings that we work as exposed to and 56 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 1: so they have some and that's on top of helping 57 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: lead this loan as well as the I p O 58 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 1: that's not happening. So those are fees you're not going 59 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 1: to see for J P. Morgan in their upcoming earnings 60 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: report because the I p O obviously never happened. But 61 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: then you also have to wonder how these other moving 62 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: parts affects JP Morgan. Their own investors are also invested 63 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: in early we Work stock. Some of those investors have 64 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 1: told me that they're not thrilled with the right ups 65 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 1: and the right downs that maybe UM embedded in JP 66 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 1: Morgan funds that have we Work shares in them. So 67 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 1: brought it out from JP Morgan and we work here. 68 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 1: I mean, there's been a lot of big disappointing deals 69 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: here in twenty nine Uber Lift and just on and 70 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: on the list goes. And this was supposed to be 71 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: the year when the bankers got fat and happy and 72 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 1: I PO investors got fat and happy. It hasn't worked 73 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: out that way. Has there been any meaningful pushback on 74 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 1: the bankers and saying, you guys just haven't done a 75 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: very good job this year. Totally, so get this. Tomorrow 76 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: is the day in Silicon Valley that all the big 77 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 1: venture capitalists will be meeting, and the bankers are not 78 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: invited because they are looking to change the I p 79 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: O model as we know it. They don't like the 80 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 1: initial pop that got in an I p O and 81 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: they certainly don't like the first day fall you get 82 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 1: lately with Smile Direct, Club and and Peloton were two 83 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 1: of the very rare companies to fall on their first 84 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:14,600 Speaker 1: day of trading that are that big and raise how 85 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 1: much money? How much is the banker's fault? How much 86 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 1: is the venture capitalists fault for valuing these companies as 87 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:21,600 Speaker 1: highly as they have? Well, if you talk to the 88 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:23,600 Speaker 1: ventral capitalists, what they're gonna do is they're going to 89 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:27,920 Speaker 1: deflect the responsibility not just away from the venture capitalists, 90 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: but over to soft Bank, which has been really inflating 91 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: some of these um silicon value valuations. And you know, 92 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 1: there's a lot of people that say a lot of 93 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,039 Speaker 1: these new big fundraisers we're seeing is in response to 94 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: soft Bank really changing the dynamics of the market. Least 95 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: you've covered this a lot too, But the bankers are 96 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 1: not without blame here for certain. The next big one 97 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 1: that I think we were waiting on was Airbnb. What's 98 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: the status of that TBD? The thing that's nice. The 99 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,599 Speaker 1: thing that's nice about airbnb is that it does turn 100 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 1: a profit. It is kind of a darling and you 101 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 1: no matter you can think about it, when the I 102 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 1: P O market's bad, it's not that it closes up completely. 103 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: People still want listings and so they're going to look 104 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: for the best possible ones. And so I think Airbnb 105 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 1: still dangles a little bit of hope in front of 106 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 1: investors and in front of UM, in front of in 107 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: front of banks as well. Shinali Bassett, thank you so 108 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 1: much for joining a Shonali's investment banking reporting for Bloomberg News. 109 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 1: Journey us here on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, bringing 110 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 1: us up to date on that news that we work 111 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: UH plans to withdraw its I p O perspectives as expected, 112 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:33,280 Speaker 1: but still a shocking formative for a company that just 113 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago I was looking to raise, 114 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 1: you know, a huge amount on a very high valuation. 115 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:40,800 Speaker 1: A lot of questions now Number one, where will we 116 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 1: work raise money? Number two? What does this to to 117 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 1: investment bankers? And a sort of tom was a year 118 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: generally for I p O s sale was was was 119 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 1: putting out there? And number three for soft bank at 120 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 1: what point do they just say forget it, We're gonna 121 00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: let you fail. Exactly right time to check in with 122 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,919 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion. We're joined by opinion columnists Brian Cheppetta. Brian 123 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: is a debt markets calumnist. He joins us here in 124 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 1: our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. So, Brian, I know you're 125 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 1: out with a column and you're basically saying it could 126 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:30,039 Speaker 1: be a shaky time for the bond market, but investment 127 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 1: grade issues are just flooding the market here. So what's 128 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 1: going on in your side of the credit markets? Yeah, 129 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: I thought it was really fascinating to see that a 130 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: D seven investment grade bond deals cluded the market as 131 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: of the end of last week, which is a record high. UH. 132 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: No month has ever seen so many investment grade companies 133 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 1: come and borrow, And it's just it's really surprising because 134 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: you saw all this different, tumultuous activity in various corners 135 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:58,160 Speaker 1: of the markets. But it was steady as she goes. 136 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 1: I guess uh for corporate And even though they're down 137 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: a little bit this month, first monthly loss this year 138 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:09,279 Speaker 1: because of yields rising, UH, still out performing treasuries and 139 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 1: still up year data, pretty strong, pretty strong year. So 140 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 1: this is this is such a fascinating area because there 141 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 1: seems to be a flood of cash coming from overseas 142 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 1: into the US investment grade bond market trying to get 143 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 1: some yield. Uh, since there is still some yield in 144 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: the United States. That said, Morgan Stanley crunched the data 145 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: and found that liabilities that the event of debt versus 146 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 1: income have reached their highest level in the investment grade 147 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 1: corporate sector since two thousand and nine. And they were 148 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: talking about how forty of all investment grade issuers now 149 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: have debt levels more equivalent to junk ratings, even though 150 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 1: they are still rated with the with the top tiers 151 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 1: of credit grades. Should people be concerned? Well, I guess 152 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: when I see that all the pushback, I always have 153 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:59,119 Speaker 1: the thing I always want to see, and maybe maybe 154 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 1: there is some data out on that is sort of Okay, 155 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 1: the debt levels are high, but what are the borrowing costs? 156 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: Because yes, it's the highest since two thousand nine, But 157 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 1: you have to sort of look at where yield levels 158 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: are now relative to where they were ten years ago. 159 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: Because you can borrow, you can refinance, and yes you 160 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: have higher debt, but it's it's cheaper to borrow, So 161 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 1: I mean sort of the question is the corporate structure, 162 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: I mean, is it is it economically more feasible and 163 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: and better to to actually have have some debt if 164 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 1: you can borrow it. I'll push back on that. I 165 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 1: think that you know you're right that it net interest 166 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 1: costs are coming down, right just simply math, because rates 167 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: are lower and there is so much money and interest 168 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 1: coming into this market. That's said. The reason why leverage 169 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: picked up to such degree, according to this Morgan Stanley 170 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 1: analysis was twofold. It was because the borrowing more and 171 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 1: the revenues are coming down. Right there. The extra debt 172 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:59,479 Speaker 1: that they are borrowing is not helping them boost their profits. 173 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:02,959 Speaker 1: And so at what point is debt for debt's sake 174 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: really going to potentially crimp companies as we head into 175 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 1: potentially another downturn. Yeah, I mean I think that's a 176 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 1: fair I mean, I think everything that we sort of 177 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 1: know about this cycle and what companies have been doing 178 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: effectively taking on more debt, doing more share buy backs 179 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 1: to boost their equity price, I mean, all those things 180 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: are not what you would ideally like to see. But 181 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 1: I guess the question going forward that people have to 182 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: think about is what else do you do in an 183 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 1: economy that's growing but not growing that fast? I mean, 184 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: it seems like all of these executives sort of have 185 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 1: come to the decision that this is the way that 186 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 1: we go. We we take out debt to maybe finance 187 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 1: murders and acquisitions, or even just to buy back our shares. 188 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 1: So what are we seeing in terms of credit quality 189 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 1: out there? Are we seeing any signs of a deterioration 190 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 1: in credit quality? Well, I think that the high yield 191 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 1: market is where you're starting to see a lot of 192 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 1: investor pushback and some deals had to be show l 193 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 1: that aren't getting done. I mean there have been downgrades, um. 194 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: I think that Tupperware was the one that was mentioned 195 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 1: in the Bloomberg News story today being cut to junk UM. 196 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: But overall, UH, downgrades are happening, but not quite at 197 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 1: the clip. I think that people were really worried about. 198 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,440 Speaker 1: The question will be obviously if for some reason the 199 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 1: economy gets worse, we head into even even more slow down. 200 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 1: If that will change, UH, you want to shift gears 201 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 1: a little bit to the repo market. Since we are 202 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 1: reaching quarter end and this has been the time that 203 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: people really were worried about, we are seeing overnight repo 204 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: costs go up. How big of a concern is that. 205 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people are sort of thinking that, Okay, 206 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 1: the repo market is a problem area and the FED 207 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 1: doesn't have a quick fix. They're in there doing their 208 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: temporary repo operations for now, and it'll be generally okay, 209 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 1: we'll muddle through now. But I think everyone's really focused 210 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: on what will the FED come out with UH in 211 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 1: there are after there are October meeting. What sort of 212 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 1: permanent solution is there? Are we going back to buying 213 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 1: more treasuries uh in an attempt to sort of flood 214 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 1: the system with more reserves, or will they have some 215 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,319 Speaker 1: standing repo facility, But it sounds like they're not as 216 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 1: close to that as people might expect, So it sounds 217 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 1: like they might go back to sort of organic growth 218 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 1: of the balance sheet. Brian Chabot, thank you so much 219 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: for being with us. Thank you. Brian Chabot is a 220 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion columnist, joining us here in our Bloomberg Gotter 221 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 1: Active Broker Studios. You can read all of his columns 222 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,560 Speaker 1: at O, P, I N GO, on the Bloomberg Terminal 223 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 1: or Bloomberg dot com Slash Opinion. His columns are great, 224 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: so are those of his colleague and you can catch 225 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 1: them all there. Let's shift gears to what's been going 226 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,320 Speaker 1: on in Washington, D see some of the political turmoil 227 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:04,839 Speaker 1: with respect to the impeachment probe and the hearings last week. 228 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: How much does that trickle into markets? Jeff Powell, managing 229 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 1: partner at Polari's gray Stone Financial Group, joining us now 230 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,200 Speaker 1: by phone from San Francisco. Jeff, how much did you 231 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 1: care and pay attention to the political tumult that we 232 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 1: saw over the past week. Well, I mean, obviously we 233 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 1: have to pay attention to headline news, and obviously something 234 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 1: like an impeachment inquiry is a very serious thing. Um. Personally, 235 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 1: I don't think that a impeachment walk her under the circumstances, 236 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 1: but it certainly plays into sentiment of marketplace, and it's 237 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 1: certainly complicates what's going on with our trade negotiations with China. 238 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 1: So it's a very important thing for us to consider 239 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,079 Speaker 1: to track progress of what's going on there and also 240 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: the impacts of it as in other areas of the marketplace. Yeah, Jeff, 241 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 1: I've actually been I guess a little bit surprised at 242 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:57,679 Speaker 1: the market has kind of taken this news in stride um, 243 00:12:57,720 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 1: and but I guess the question investors are just trying 244 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,080 Speaker 1: to get a sense of where could this really hit 245 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 1: me in terms of the economy, And I guess you 246 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 1: mentioned one area is trade and that's clearly been the 247 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 1: big driver this market over the last year. So so 248 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 1: give us your thoughts to kind of how do you 249 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:17,479 Speaker 1: think this may impact trade negotiations if at all? Well, yeah, absolutely, 250 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 1: I mean if you think back to May when we 251 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:24,680 Speaker 1: heard Donald Trump tweet about how he was unhappy with 252 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 1: the Fed and if the Fed had been more aggressive 253 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 1: about cuts that we would have as strong in an 254 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 1: economy as China had, And all of a sudden, we 255 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 1: had China rethinking what was going on with our trade negotiations. So, uh, Premier, 256 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: she obviously is a lifetime position for him. We obviously 257 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 1: don't have lifetime positions for our leaders, and so when 258 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 1: you look at it, I believe the Chinese kind of 259 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 1: negotiate on kind of a different calendar than we do, 260 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 1: so they may be in a situation where they tried 261 00:13:56,559 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 1: to outweigh outweight President Trump under these circumstances, but it 262 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 1: certainly weakens his position with trade negotiations with China. Do 263 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 1: you trade on the headlines, No, we don't at all. 264 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 1: I mean, but I mean obviously you know things, things spiral, 265 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 1: and so uncertainty is a major factor. I mean, if 266 00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 1: you just look at what happened in the fourth quarter 267 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 1: of last year, almost everything that was going on during 268 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 1: fourth quarter was sentiment of and everybody was worried about 269 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: the potential of a of having an economy that was 270 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 1: weakening or even going into recession, when there was really 271 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 1: no evidence of it. We had a strong economy, we 272 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 1: had really strong earnings. You have the markets drop during 273 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 1: that time period. So really we're looking at headlines and 274 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 1: their impact. I mean, you can run into circumstances that 275 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: become self fulfilling prophecies where you have people become more 276 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 1: and more worried about what's going on economically as a 277 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 1: result of headlines, which would be a driving factor for 278 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 1: us to make a decision to get more defensive and portfolios. So, Jeff, 279 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 1: we are, um, you know, at or near this the 280 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 1: all time high for the smp fived. You talk a 281 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 1: little bit about getting defensive. How are you thinking about 282 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 1: your positioning right here, given where we are in the 283 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: economic cycle, given where the FED is, are you taking 284 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 1: on additional risk here? Are or are you getting more defensive? 285 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 1: It's kind of funny you bring that up, but it's 286 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 1: it's more of a neutral stance right now, more of 287 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 1: a wait and see um. When we talk about economic cycles, 288 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 1: I mean I have a very hard time really gauging that. 289 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 1: I mean, we talked about how long the economy has 290 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 1: been expanding, yet you've had government intervention going on until 291 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 1: they'll end the part of two thousand fourteen, we dealt 292 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 1: with three different quantitative easing time periods in which you 293 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: had the government stepping in and really pressing yields down 294 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 1: very low as a result of quantitative easing. How do 295 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 1: you gauge true economic expansion when the government was being 296 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 1: was involved basically for seven of the years of that expansion. 297 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 1: So it's challenging. It's it's very challenging to sit there 298 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 1: and and really step in hard with this. I think 299 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: that we are going to see a a smattering of 300 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: disappointments going into earning season, especially with what's going on 301 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,080 Speaker 1: with tariffs in the trade war that we have going on. 302 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: I think it's hard to get really really aggressive with 303 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 1: within the markets based upon that. So we're going in, 304 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: we're being we're market weight with what we would typically 305 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,320 Speaker 1: be for a client and their risk levels and so on. 306 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: That being said, we are lower beta stocks more so 307 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 1: than we would be in a normal circumstance with the 308 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 1: allocations that we're in. Are you boosting your allocation to 309 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 1: cash we did about a month ago. We're holding tight 310 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 1: with what we are now. We have our laundry list 311 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: of names that we like, and we're looking or the 312 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 1: right opportunity to step back into the market a little 313 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:07,200 Speaker 1: bit more heavily and get into an overweight position should 314 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,120 Speaker 1: the need arise. So, Jeff, one of the issues I've 315 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 1: heard about getting a little bit more cautious is utilities reads. 316 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 1: You know, consumer staples by historical standards, they're not cheap. 317 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:22,400 Speaker 1: You're absolutely correct, and so, I mean we are market 318 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 1: weight and all three of those categories, but we are 319 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 1: not overweighted into them. Uh So, it is something that 320 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,280 Speaker 1: is a little bit more challenging to sit there and 321 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 1: and chase that kind of performance. I mean, if you 322 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 1: look at what utilities have done in particular, I mean, 323 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:41,679 Speaker 1: they've had an amazing run, an amazing year for that 324 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,639 Speaker 1: particular category. But you're absolutely correct, it makes it very 325 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 1: challenging to go into an area of the marketplace that 326 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 1: is considered to be expensive even though it's considered to 327 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: be defensive. Jeff pal thanks so much for joining us. 328 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 1: Jeff's a managing partner for Polarist gray Stone Financial Group 329 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 1: based in San Francisco. Jeff and just via phone from 330 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: San Francisco giving us his thoughts on the market. A 331 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 1: lot of workplaces talk about the difficulties of hiring qualified 332 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 1: people are frankly hiring people in general. There is a 333 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 1: question of what role artificial intelligence can play in that. 334 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:29,640 Speaker 1: Joining us now is A L. Graevsky. He's chief executive 335 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 1: officer of Maya Systems, joining us from San Francisco. I 336 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 1: can you just talk a little bit about what Maya 337 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 1: Systems is. Yeah, So, Maya Systems is a recruitment automation 338 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:44,360 Speaker 1: platform using conversational AI. So we built this conversational AI 339 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:48,440 Speaker 1: assistant named Maya, who engages with candidates through natural language 340 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,359 Speaker 1: and helps guide them through the recruiting process, helps source 341 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 1: passive leads for hiring teams, and manage many different phases 342 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 1: of the process. So I'll just give us a sense 343 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 1: of you know, what types of companies use your system. Yeah, 344 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: so we work with some of the largest enterprises and 345 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 1: staffing companies in the world, so six of the eight 346 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 1: largest staffing businesses, as well as organizations like the Lloyd 347 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 1: Laureal a b M BEV, very large enterprises like Singapore 348 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 1: Airlines that leverage the technology to both manage their talent 349 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: pools as well as automate and guide candidates through the 350 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 1: recruiting process. What's the goal, I mean, why did you 351 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 1: create this company? Yeah? So what I learned from the 352 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 1: many years working as a recruiter is that the recruiting 353 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 1: process is still wildly manual, and you see recruiters spent 354 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:46,000 Speaker 1: about seventy of their time on what we call repetitive tasks, 355 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: which really slows them down. And later when I actually 356 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,200 Speaker 1: went out and started searching for jobs early in my career, 357 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:55,360 Speaker 1: I applied about forty jobs her back from two companies. 358 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: It's incredibly frustrating of applications fall into the black hole. 359 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,399 Speaker 1: You have about a fifty seven to one chance of 360 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: getting a job when you apply, so it's a very 361 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 1: inefficient process. And what we saw was an opportunity to 362 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,920 Speaker 1: build a technology that can really engage and communicate with 363 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:15,960 Speaker 1: people at a large scale so that we can learn 364 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 1: about those individuals and then in building that profile and 365 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 1: understanding their interests, we can help guide them and convert 366 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 1: them into their next job. So we really saw that 367 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 1: unique opportunity to bridge the communications gap. It's interesting, you know, 368 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 1: I think the LinkedIn is really emerged as a recruiting tool. 369 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 1: Give us a sense of kind of how you either 370 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: compete with or complementary to a LinkedIn type of service. Yea, 371 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 1: So we we be viewed complementary and that LinkedIn is 372 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 1: very much a marketplace, and of course they have a 373 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 1: platform that organizations can um used to source and engage 374 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:56,159 Speaker 1: passive candidates and and so forth. What we are is 375 00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 1: really an enterprise staff business. We integrate into our clients 376 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 1: systems and we support recruitment across many different sources. So 377 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,159 Speaker 1: LinkedIn might be one of the sources that are generating 378 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 1: leads where Maya might engage that candidate and convert them 379 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 1: through the funnel. Uh, and then of course Maya. The 380 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 1: really interesting thing about what we're doing is we can 381 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:24,200 Speaker 1: use the technology to engage our customers database of candidates, 382 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 1: people that they've engaged within the past. Many of our 383 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 1: customers have millions of candidates that they've acquired over the 384 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 1: years and maya can really engage, re engage and surface 385 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:40,240 Speaker 1: leads directly within your existing pool. So um, in that way, 386 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 1: sometimes we use the reliance on external sources like LinkedIn. 387 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 1: So given the fact that you you probably have conversations 388 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 1: with a lot of different companies, they are trying to 389 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 1: tailor this to their specific needs. Are you getting any 390 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:57,080 Speaker 1: sense that there is a shift in what employers are 391 00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,920 Speaker 1: looking for in terms of the skills that will determine 392 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,919 Speaker 1: whether a candidate will be successful and will stick around 393 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:10,679 Speaker 1: versus not. Yeah, so, um, there's absolutely shifts in in 394 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:15,640 Speaker 1: perspective and how employers are making decisions on candidates and 395 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 1: and that's probably gonna change on an employer to employer basis. Um. 396 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 1: You know, really our goal as a as a product 397 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 1: is is to really learn and understand the candidate and 398 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:30,439 Speaker 1: surface those insights that might be hidden not on the resume, 399 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 1: not in the LinkedIn profile. You know, these are insights 400 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,679 Speaker 1: that typically our surfaced from like a phone screen, and 401 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,240 Speaker 1: we'll help build that profile that enriched profile and understanding 402 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 1: of the candidate as it pertains to the job requirements. Um. Really, 403 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:48,199 Speaker 1: based on the criteria that the recruiter is looking for 404 00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 1: and then we'll let the recruiter make that educated decision. 405 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 1: But yeah, companies are gonna very much differ and how 406 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 1: they think about candidates. Another cool thing that we're doing 407 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:03,200 Speaker 1: is we're really understanding how candidates are engaging UM and 408 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 1: how other candidates in the past that we've screened or 409 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,879 Speaker 1: that we've engaged with our performing, so we can help 410 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,639 Speaker 1: our customers make predictions that are really grounded in data 411 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:18,639 Speaker 1: and and and grounded in analytics over time. Hey, I'll 412 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 1: ye have ski. Thank you so much for joining us. 413 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 1: Just fascinating discussion. Ails, the chief executive officer for Maya Systems, 414 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 1: joining us on the phone from San Francisco, talking about 415 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,680 Speaker 1: the recruiting process, the hiring process, the retaining talent process, 416 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:37,200 Speaker 1: and how artificial intelligence and other technologies can help recruiters, companies, 417 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 1: UH and candidates themselves find a better fit. Thanks for 418 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can 419 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever 420 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,959 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at 421 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,639 Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa bram Woyds. I'm on Twitter at 422 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 1: Lisa A. Bramwoit's one before the podcast. You can always 423 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 1: catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio