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Speaker 1: Take a look at the jobs rate three. This remains

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Speaker 1: near a historic generational low. About five hundred more than

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Speaker 1: five thousand people entered the labor market. So these months

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Speaker 1: and months and months of decent job numbers are encouraging

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Speaker 1: people to come back in. So that is an important

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Speaker 1: sign of success in the labor market right now. Some

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Speaker 1: good economic news there. Uh, there's been a lot of

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Speaker 1: good economic news now for a couple of years. I mean,

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Speaker 1: some of it just mind blowing numbers that nobody thought

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Speaker 1: we'd ever see. Unemployment, um, you know, various indexes. But

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Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago there was some number none

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Speaker 1: of us have ever heard of, the inversion point or

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Speaker 1: something that happened. In the media went all crazy and

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Speaker 1: there's been NonStop recession talk since. How likely is that

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Speaker 1: to happen? And what is a recession? Anyway? Let's talk

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Speaker 1: with Neil Irwin, he writes for The Upshot, a time

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Speaker 1: site New York Times site for analysis of politics, economics

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Speaker 1: and more. Neil, welcome of the Arms Strong and Getty Show.

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Speaker 1: Glad you're here, Hi Jack, Thanks for having me. You

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Speaker 1: know I'm gonna start here. Is there anything that's reported

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Speaker 1: more poorly than economic news in all of media. Well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I know, I don't mean people like you, just in general.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna drive you crazy. When you see a big

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Speaker 1: national newscast and they give you a thirty second overview

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Speaker 1: of what's going on. It's often so bad you were

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Speaker 1: better off having not heard it. Yeah, I think that's right.

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Speaker 1: I mean this stuff is really complicated to try and

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Speaker 1: do it justice. Um, you know, the simple headline is

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Speaker 1: really going to capture the nuances of what's happening in

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Speaker 1: a twenty trillion dollar economy. Um, but it's I share

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Speaker 1: your frustration. Um. Define recession for US so Uh, the

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Speaker 1: the official definition is an extended period of of economic contraction.

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Speaker 1: Some people use a rule of thumb of two quarters

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Speaker 1: of negative growth. Um, you know, it's it's less specific

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Speaker 1: numerical definition, more about an overall shrinking of the U.

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Speaker 1: S economy. Usually the economy grows. Uh. If it shrinks

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Speaker 1: for not just a single quarter, but for some extended

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Speaker 1: period of time, we lose jobs, industrial production falls. That's

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Speaker 1: what a recession is. And how likely is it to happen?

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Speaker 1: You love your headline? Recession is not inevitable. Yeah, look,

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Speaker 1: it's more likely than it looked a few months ago. Um,

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Speaker 1: there's no question that a lot of the economic data

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Speaker 1: has softened in the last couple of months. Uh. You

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Speaker 1: know that you mentioned this inversion of the yield curve.

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Speaker 1: Something that's happening in global bond markets seems to be

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Speaker 1: uh signaling future slow growth. UM. That said, it's not

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Speaker 1: baked in. It's not a sure thing. Uh. This economy

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Speaker 1: could easily keep growing for another one to five ten years. Uh,

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Speaker 1: there's no reason that can't happen. And I think what

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Speaker 1: we're seeing is, UM, you know, this weird thing happened

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Speaker 1: in financial markets again, this this yield curve inversion that's

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Speaker 1: making people kind of leap to conclusions that aren't necessarily warranted. Well,

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Speaker 1: what about our ability to talk ourselves into a recession?

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Speaker 1: I was pooh pooing that inversion thing that happened, because,

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Speaker 1: you know, with a little bit of googling, I was

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Speaker 1: able to find out that that UM particular number a

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, that that's that's set this talk off.

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Speaker 1: Um is wrong as as often as it's right in

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Speaker 1: terms of predicting a recession real soon. But even I

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Speaker 1: with all the recession talk in the media, was starting

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Speaker 1: to think, Oh, maybe I shouldn't buy this or that

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Speaker 1: or make this plan. I worry about us talking ourselves

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Speaker 1: into it. Yeah, that is a risk, There's no question

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Speaker 1: that's a risk, you know, if you're and and that's

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Speaker 1: thinking in terms of consumers, think in terms of corporate executives.

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Speaker 1: If you're a CFO of a company you're trying to side,

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Speaker 1: you know, do we build this new factory, do we

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Speaker 1: you know, hire another hundred people or not. Uh. You know,

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Speaker 1: you can kind of talk yourself out of um, out

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Speaker 1: of that, and that can be self fulfilling. UM. I

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Speaker 1: don't think we're seeing evidence so far that that's happening,

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Speaker 1: at least on a broad scale. You know, you just

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Speaker 1: mentioned the job's report, uh this morning. It was pretty solid.

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Speaker 1: It was a decent you know, continued growth. Um. So

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Speaker 1: you know, you can have a slowdown that's not a recession.

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Speaker 1: And that seems to be what we're having so far.

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Speaker 1: But as you point out in your own article that

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Speaker 1: consumer spending accounts for a much larger share I'm reading

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Speaker 1: from your article consumer spending accounts for a much larger

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Speaker 1: share of the economy than business investment does. And that's

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Speaker 1: why I worry about us talking ourselves into it. If

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Speaker 1: the media keeps hammering on this, A recession is coming.

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Speaker 1: A recession is coming, and you know enough people say well,

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Speaker 1: maybe I won't buy that car at least not this year,

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Speaker 1: or maybe I won't remodel the bathroom pretty soon. We're

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Speaker 1: we're in a tough spot. And you know, Bill Maher's

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Speaker 1: on TV saying, I hope there's a recession. A certain

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Speaker 1: amount of the media is rooting for it because of

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Speaker 1: their dislike a trump. Um. I wonder if if recessions

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Speaker 1: can be created in a different way in a social media,

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Speaker 1: hyper media world essentrating idea. I think that's possible. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know that said, Look, we've had periods of of

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Speaker 1: weak growth that did not fall into an all out recessions.

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Speaker 1: That happened in late kind of similar what we're seeing now.

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Speaker 1: There was a real freeze up in in manufacturing activity

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Speaker 1: and um, and a slump that you know, didn't become

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Speaker 1: a full scale recession, but was a slowdown that that

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Speaker 1: did cause a lot of pain in certain sectors. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, you could have that this time without blowing,

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Speaker 1: you know, bubbling up and turning into an all out contraction.

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Speaker 1: But I think you're right. You know, how we communicate,

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Speaker 1: how we how information is spread has changed, and there's

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Speaker 1: you know, I think what you're describing is totally plausible.

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Speaker 1: That's an interesting idea, said Neil Irwin. That's what smart

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Speaker 1: people say to dumb people when they throw out something

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Speaker 1: that makes no sense. I appreciate I haven't thought it before.

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Speaker 1: I haven't really thought that through, so a question. I

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Speaker 1: appreciate being that kind with my half assed theory. Um,

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Speaker 1: so I'm just a regular guy, obviously, What what should

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Speaker 1: I keep my eye on if if I'm actually in

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Speaker 1: a position where I think maybe I shouldn't remodel the

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Speaker 1: bathroom next year, What what numbers should I be watching

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Speaker 1: on a regular basis? But there are some some indicators

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Speaker 1: that are kind of real time tell you what's happening

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Speaker 1: right now, what's going to happen in the next couple

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Speaker 1: of months. So far those are showing okay signals. So

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Speaker 1: there's every week there's a report on the number of

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Speaker 1: jobless claims, people filing for unemployment insurance benefits. Those numbers

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Speaker 1: have stayed super low. Uh. Not a bunch of layoffs happening. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, they're these surveys of industry that that happened

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Speaker 1: every month. Those numbers are showing mixed signals for for

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Speaker 1: manufacturing that does that has fallen into negative territory, for

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Speaker 1: service industries that's still in comfortable growth territory. Um. So

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Speaker 1: there are a lot of real time indicators out there

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Speaker 1: that can tell you if you know, are we entering

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Speaker 1: a real slump or or things pretty much Okay, there

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Speaker 1: was something in your article that that that struck me

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Speaker 1: that I've been waiting for for years, um, that the

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Speaker 1: unemployment being low enough that employers actually actually have to

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Speaker 1: start worrying about, uh paying, paying their employees more, having

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Speaker 1: better benefits, packages, training, whatever to keep them around because

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Speaker 1: there are their options out there. Yeah, I think you look,

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Speaker 1: the best thing that can happen, uh for for American

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Speaker 1: workers in the in the medium term is this low

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Speaker 1: uemployment rate staying where it is or going lower still.

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Speaker 1: And you know when when employ when workers are scarce,

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Speaker 1: businesses have to do more to get good workers. They

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Speaker 1: have to pay more, as you say, they also have

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Speaker 1: to you know, take chances on people they might not

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Speaker 1: have taken chances on. You know if that means uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, taking on somebody who wants more flexiblowers, or

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Speaker 1: somebody who's disabled or as you know, coming out of prison. Um,

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Speaker 1: employers are having to take chances on people they might

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Speaker 1: not have in a in a weaker job market. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And that's just better for everybody when employers really have

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Speaker 1: to compete to get workers. Yeah, yeah, that's that's Uh. Well,

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Speaker 1: that's a switch from spend most of my career. Neil

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Speaker 1: Irwin writes for The Upshot in New York Times site

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Speaker 1: for analysis and politics, economics and more. Neil, thanks for

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Speaker 1: your time, Thanks for having me. Yes, that was he

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Speaker 1: was being very nice to me. That's an interesting idea.

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Speaker 1: Why don't you get sit over there and have some putting,

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Speaker 1: very good question, Mr radio man Haney. He was good.

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Speaker 1: I like that he was good. But that is what

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Speaker 1: smart people say to dumb people when they ask stupid questions.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I recognize that. That's I'm not ashamed. Economics

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Speaker 1: is not my my thing, but the idea that employers

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Speaker 1: might be in a position for the first time in

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Speaker 1: a long time where they gotta they gotta pay more,

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Speaker 1: they gotta pay better benefits, they gotta pay better salary,

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Speaker 1: they gotta they gotta buy new equipment. They need to

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Speaker 1: invest for the long term, to keep people around and

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Speaker 1: to plan for the future. Because the economy is so

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Speaker 1: good that could be for good for everybody. Like Neil

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Speaker 1: Irwin said, and again the headline is the headline. Recession

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Speaker 1: is not inevitable. Don't go out there and buy. Consumers,

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Speaker 1: buy anything you were thinking about buying, go out and

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Speaker 1: buy it today. I think it'd be fantastic for all

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Speaker 1: of us. Bye bye, bye, bye bye, Thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: From the Armstrong and Getty Show art Strong and Getty