WEBVTT - Can the US and Iran Make a Deal?

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The United States and

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<v Speaker 1>Iran could return to the negotiating table this week. The

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<v Speaker 1>two countries held a round of indirect talks on Friday,

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<v Speaker 1>and both sides said that meeting was a good start.

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<v Speaker 2>Man, it looks like they want to make it deal

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<v Speaker 2>very badly, as they should.

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<v Speaker 1>After those talks ended on Friday, President Trump spoke to

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<v Speaker 1>reporters on Air Force One.

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<v Speaker 2>Last time, they decided maybe not to do it, but

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<v Speaker 2>I think they probably feel differently. We'll see what the

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<v Speaker 2>deal is. It it be different than last time, and

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<v Speaker 2>we have a big armada. We have a big fleet

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<v Speaker 2>heading in that direction.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump said Iran knows what the consequences would be if

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't reach a deal with the US, but he

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<v Speaker 1>said for now, at least there's no rush. Iran's president

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<v Speaker 1>described last week's negotiations as a step forward, but he

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<v Speaker 1>also said Iran does not quote tolerate the language of force.

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<v Speaker 1>These are bilateral talks with Oman mediating, but other countries

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<v Speaker 1>are watching them closely. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Nett Yahoo

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<v Speaker 1>is scheduled to meet with President Trump in Washington on Wednesday.

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<v Speaker 3>The issue is as we turn our focus on geopolitics

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<v Speaker 3>and diplomacy, and what men in suits are saying or

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<v Speaker 3>not saying, is that we lose sight of what's going

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<v Speaker 3>on on the ground in Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Golnar Motivali has covered Iran for more than a

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<v Speaker 1>decade from Tehran and from London, where she's currently based,

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<v Speaker 1>and Gaulner says, the situation that thrust Iran into this

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<v Speaker 1>weakened negotiating position in the first place is not letting

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<v Speaker 1>up economic turmoil that drove Iranians to nationwide protests.

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<v Speaker 3>The reality is is that a large number of Iranians

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<v Speaker 3>want to see change, and they have been desperately making

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<v Speaker 3>that point and making that case, and risking their lives

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<v Speaker 3>for that and giving their lives in large numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>Over the weekend, Iran's violent crackdown on dissidents and protesters continued,

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<v Speaker 1>with the arrest of several prominent activists. Security forces have

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<v Speaker 1>reportedly killed almost sixty five hundred people, according to human

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<v Speaker 1>rights organizations. President Trump previously threatened to use the US

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<v Speaker 1>military to support the demonstrators, but it's not clear if

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<v Speaker 1>violence against dissidents would alone and at this point provoke

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<v Speaker 1>a US military response.

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<v Speaker 3>The Islamic Republic. If you look over the past nearly

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<v Speaker 3>fifty years that it's been running Iran, it's never been

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<v Speaker 3>in a situation as challenging and precarious as this. So

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<v Speaker 3>I think within that context, these talks definitely provide an

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<v Speaker 3>off ramp to this regime to try and hold onto

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<v Speaker 3>power for longer.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm David Gera, and this is the big take from

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News today. On the show, Diplomatic talks between the

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<v Speaker 1>US and Iran are set to continue this week. What

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<v Speaker 1>does each country hope to achieve and what's at stake

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<v Speaker 1>if these negotiations fall apart. The United States and Iran

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<v Speaker 1>have started talks again after a month long pause. The

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<v Speaker 1>last round ended in June after the US struck Iranian

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear sites. I asked Gonar what brought them back to

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<v Speaker 1>the negotiating table.

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<v Speaker 3>So, right now, as far as Iran is concerned, it's

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<v Speaker 3>in the middle of an unprecedented crisis. We had these

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<v Speaker 3>huge protests that erupted on the twenty eighth of December

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<v Speaker 3>and grew into something much bigger than what looked initially

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<v Speaker 3>like a reaction to a currency crash. It became a

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<v Speaker 3>much more broader, wider, widespread rebuke against the Islamic Republic

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<v Speaker 3>as a system of rule and supreme lead to Iotola

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<v Speaker 3>Ali Kromne.

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<v Speaker 1>Iran is still reeling from those demonstrations and from those

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<v Speaker 1>US air strikes from back in June, and its allies

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<v Speaker 1>in the region, including Hamas and Hesbala, have been significantly weakened.

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<v Speaker 1>All of that means Iran is negotiating from a position

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<v Speaker 1>of relative weakness, but that doesn't mean these talks will

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<v Speaker 1>be easy for starters. The two countries have disagreed on

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<v Speaker 1>the scope of the talks and even on where they

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<v Speaker 1>should take place.

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<v Speaker 3>The other interesting dynamic in these talks is that they're indirect,

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<v Speaker 3>and from what we could discern from the reports who

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<v Speaker 3>were getting from journalists on the ground who were there,

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<v Speaker 3>including Iranian state TV media or reporters who had a

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<v Speaker 3>camera on the location, the whole time, they were very much,

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<v Speaker 3>very indirect, to the point where it looked like they

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<v Speaker 3>were taking turns to send messages to the Omani mediator

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<v Speaker 3>and then waiting to get a response again via the

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<v Speaker 3>Omani mediator. So it was a bit of a relay

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<v Speaker 3>physical back and forth between the two But the other

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<v Speaker 3>interesting thing that happened, given so much is at stake,

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<v Speaker 3>particularly for Iran, is that both sides sounded cautiously positive

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<v Speaker 3>using this word good.

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<v Speaker 1>So do we have any indication if they planned to

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<v Speaker 1>meet or what might be on the table if they

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<v Speaker 1>were to meet once again?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so they have said that they planned to meet,

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<v Speaker 3>they haven't given a time or date. I have a

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<v Speaker 3>feeling that may have something to do with the fact

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<v Speaker 3>that the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyah, who is likely

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<v Speaker 3>to want to talk to the Americans, and I think

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<v Speaker 3>all eyes at this moment in time are going to

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<v Speaker 3>be on how Israel reacts, because we know that Netanyahu

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<v Speaker 3>specifically is not a fan of a US Iran negotiating

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<v Speaker 3>process in which he is not involved in, at least

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<v Speaker 3>if he's not involved in directly. He wants to know

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<v Speaker 3>the direction it's going in, and he tends to not

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<v Speaker 3>like it to go in a direction that he feels

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<v Speaker 3>benefits the Iranian regime as it currently stands. And I

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<v Speaker 3>think one of the concerns is if he feels that

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<v Speaker 3>the Trump administration is going to go ahead and secure

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<v Speaker 3>some kind of deal from Iran, that he could possibly

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<v Speaker 3>preemptively strike Iran again, and I think that would be

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<v Speaker 3>very concerning and definitely escalating.

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<v Speaker 1>Prim Minister, who scheduled to meet with President Trump on

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<v Speaker 1>Wednesday of this week, can I ask you about the

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<v Speaker 1>goals of each side? So, without every simplifying, it seems

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<v Speaker 1>like Fran it would be to forestall or take military action.

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<v Speaker 3>Off the table.

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<v Speaker 1>To the US wouldn't strike Aron and maybe some sanctions relief.

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<v Speaker 1>Does it go beyond that? Do we know concretely sort

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<v Speaker 1>of what they want the outcome of these talks to be.

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<v Speaker 3>I think the only thing we can go by is

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<v Speaker 3>what they've said so far. Officials said that Iran's priority

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<v Speaker 3>is to protect its national self interest and to secure

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<v Speaker 3>some sanctions relief because a lot of the domestic problems,

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<v Speaker 3>not all of them, but a fair amount are either

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<v Speaker 3>rooted in or at least exacerbated by the economic conditions

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<v Speaker 3>inside the country, and so much of that comes down

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<v Speaker 3>to sanctions relief. If they want to avert and stave

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<v Speaker 3>off another eruption of massive unrest. I don't think they

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<v Speaker 3>can achieve it in the long term, but they can

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<v Speaker 3>put it off for a bit longer or try to

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<v Speaker 3>prevent it from happening again. Is to very quickly do

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<v Speaker 3>something that brings an injection of foreign exchange into the country.

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<v Speaker 1>For the US, a clear priority is the cessation of

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<v Speaker 1>Iran's nuclear program. Officials have also said these talks should

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<v Speaker 1>adress Iran's missiles and Tehran support for regional militias. But

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<v Speaker 1>I also wonder whether there's a bigger objective here, some

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<v Speaker 1>march toward regime change. Gonnard, What is the US's goal here.

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<v Speaker 3>I think there are a lot of people in the

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<v Speaker 3>Trump administration who are very clear about the fact that

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<v Speaker 3>they want regime change, and they have wanted it for

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<v Speaker 3>a long time. But I think there is a sense

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<v Speaker 3>in the Golf, amongst Golf officials to an extent, that

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of what may happen may rest on not

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<v Speaker 3>just Netan Yaho, but what Netanyahu's supporters in Washington want

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<v Speaker 3>to see happen to Iran, and the extent to which

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<v Speaker 3>they can influence Donald Trump's decision making. I mean, the

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<v Speaker 3>crazy kind of situation we're in right now, or the

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<v Speaker 3>unusual situation, is that I think quite clearly, countries in

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<v Speaker 3>the region, and I'm thinking specifically about the Golf Arab States,

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<v Speaker 3>countries that are allies of the US, like Saudi Arabia Lata,

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<v Speaker 3>they don't want a war. They don't want anything that's

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<v Speaker 3>going to escalate tensions, that's going to be destabilizing. They

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<v Speaker 3>certainly don't want chaos or civil war or some extraordinary

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<v Speaker 3>cares catastrophic situation in Iran. It's this huge country across

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<v Speaker 3>a very narrow channel of water to their north, and

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<v Speaker 3>it's not good for anyone.

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump has said if diplomacy fails, the consequences for

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<v Speaker 1>Iran would be quote very steep. The likelihood of another

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<v Speaker 1>US strike on Iran and what could prevent that from

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<v Speaker 1>happening is coming up. We've talked a lot about diplomacy,

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<v Speaker 1>but looming in the background here is the threat of

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<v Speaker 1>military action, and we've seen the President draw this parallel

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<v Speaker 1>to what happened in Venezuela. How do you think about

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<v Speaker 1>the prospects of that military intervention, what that would mean

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<v Speaker 1>if the US were to go that round.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's possibly the worst case scenario from the

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<v Speaker 3>point of view of a lot of other countries in

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<v Speaker 3>the region. And I think the reason why the Gulf

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<v Speaker 3>Arab states, particularly those are our allies of the US.

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<v Speaker 3>It leaves them extremely vulnerable and we saw during the

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<v Speaker 3>Twelve Day War with Israel, when the Trump administration joined

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<v Speaker 3>that bombardment at the very end effectively kind of like

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<v Speaker 3>preempted a ceasefire. The Iranians retaliated by sending a barrage

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<v Speaker 3>of missiles in the direction of the largest US military

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<v Speaker 3>base in the region, which is in Attar. That really

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<v Speaker 3>really did not I mean, obviously the Rataris were extremely,

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<v Speaker 3>extremely worried and upset over that, and I can't imagine

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<v Speaker 3>them tolerating something similar happening again along those lines. On

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<v Speaker 3>the other hand, we also have the Iranians saying repeatedly

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<v Speaker 3>over the past few weeks, basically since this flotillas started

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<v Speaker 3>to move in the direction of the of the Red Sea,

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<v Speaker 3>that any military action by the Trump administration would basically

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<v Speaker 3>provoke the full ruff of the Islamic Republic. They've made

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<v Speaker 3>that very clear that we will throw whatever we have

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<v Speaker 3>at you and your allies and your assets in the

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<v Speaker 3>region if you strike us.

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<v Speaker 1>And the Supreme Leader has talked about a regional war.

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<v Speaker 1>Isn't necessarily y yes.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think they are saying that because they want

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<v Speaker 3>to change the strategic calculation on the side on behalf

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<v Speaker 3>of the Americans and even the Israelis. I think that

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<v Speaker 3>message also because after the Twelve Day War, I think

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<v Speaker 3>there was generally a feeling and a sense, not just

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<v Speaker 3>in Tehran but outside that the Israelis may attack again,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think the Uranians were genuinely concerned about that.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think that's also message to the Israelis.

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<v Speaker 1>Of those limited options, it seems to me there is

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<v Speaker 1>still an economic one. They could block the straight or

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<v Speaker 1>form as they could with regional partners, perhaps do some

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<v Speaker 1>blockade in the Red Sea. From an economic advantage, how

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<v Speaker 1>much would that do? How much could that do to

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<v Speaker 1>the global oil market?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I think that would be very worrying, right.

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<v Speaker 3>I think if we had anything like that. I think

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<v Speaker 3>even any mention by a senior Iranian official saying we

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<v Speaker 3>will block the straight of hormals if X, Y and

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<v Speaker 3>Z happens, I'm not sure if that kind of language

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<v Speaker 3>would immediately affect oil prices. But in the current climate,

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<v Speaker 3>and given what you have in the background, what's going on,

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<v Speaker 3>and how sensitive the situation is, it's more likely to

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<v Speaker 3>drive prices up, and I think that's what Trump wants

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<v Speaker 3>to avoid as well. I think this is also a

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<v Speaker 3>question that we have to keep in the back of

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<v Speaker 3>our minds is what his priorities are going to be

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<v Speaker 3>going into the midterm elections in the US. He probably

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<v Speaker 3>doesn't on high oil prices. More broadly, in the country,

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<v Speaker 3>no one wants that kind of inflationy pressure at that time, not,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, as far as politics is concerned, and so

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<v Speaker 3>I think that is something that he may think about

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<v Speaker 3>for sure.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to end with this conversation about regime change

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<v Speaker 1>or the potential for regime change. So you've described the

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<v Speaker 1>widespread satisfaction that I think a lot of us have

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<v Speaker 1>seen in recent weeks, certainly in those protests, and drawing

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<v Speaker 1>on your experience covering the country, does it feel like

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<v Speaker 1>in this moment that is closer than it has been

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<v Speaker 1>the prospects of their being regime change in Iran?

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<v Speaker 3>From speaking to people who are in Iran, and mostly

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<v Speaker 3>in Tehran, the biggest impression I get, or the most

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<v Speaker 3>overriding sense I have, is one of complete hopelessness. People

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<v Speaker 3>are really sad. People talk of feeling depressed, and again

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<v Speaker 3>this word hopelessness, and I think that's quite concerning. I

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<v Speaker 3>think that can be quite dangerous for a country and

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<v Speaker 3>for its leadership. But I do think that you know,

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<v Speaker 3>in its current manifestation, the system of running Iran, which

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<v Speaker 3>is a theocratic state that came in after the nineteen

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<v Speaker 3>seventy nine Islamic Revolution, this is no longer working for

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<v Speaker 3>the population. More broadly, I think that's quite clear, and

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<v Speaker 3>I think the reality is is that a large number

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<v Speaker 3>of Iranians want to see change, and they have been

0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:43.000
<v Speaker 3>desperately making that point and making that case and risking

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<v Speaker 3>their lives for that and giving their lives in large numbers.

0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:53.440
<v Speaker 3>They want change. And that tells you that whatever happens,

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<v Speaker 3>the unrest is going to come back at some point

0:14:56.600 --> 0:15:01.920
<v Speaker 3>unless there's a credible answer and a solution to the

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<v Speaker 3>fact that a huge number of people in Iran, a

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<v Speaker 3>large chunk of the Uranian population, feels completely adrift from

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<v Speaker 3>its leadership, from the people who are running their lives,

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<v Speaker 3>unless there's a credible way to address that properly, not

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<v Speaker 3>just with sanctions relief here and there. That stuff is

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<v Speaker 3>important to an extent, but it's a sticking plaster.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gerra.

0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:39.720
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0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:53.160
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow