Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and
Speaker 1: editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus
Speaker 1: global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about the markets. What are the champions,
Speaker 2: what are the nots? What are not maybe in this
Speaker 2: week's trade. I feel like there's a lot coming up
Speaker 2: next week, Matt. We've got the FMC meeting, We've got
Speaker 2: several Central banks meeting, and then of course you've got
Speaker 2: some big.
Speaker 3: Tech earnings next week.
Speaker 2: So I feel like there's going to be a lot
Speaker 2: that can shape the trade absolutely.
Speaker 4: And we still have you know, it's not all about earnings.
Speaker 4: We still have economic data that's going to keep pouring
Speaker 4: out from the pmis that are going to be key
Speaker 4: next week to more housing data. So there's a lot
Speaker 4: to follow along with.
Speaker 2: All right, so let's get to it. And you mentioned
Speaker 2: strategists who are continuing to kick up their s and
Speaker 2: P forecasts. Bloomberg News Economics editor Molly Smith is with
Speaker 2: us on the phone in New York City. Bloomberg Intelligence
Speaker 2: Chief Equity strategies. Gina Martin Adams with us on Zoom
Speaker 2: in New Jersey. Gina, I do kind of want to
Speaker 2: start with you though, in terms of the earnings flow,
Speaker 2: how that's playing out, and what you're seeing in terms
Speaker 2: of the equity trade reaction.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's been a really interesting earning season so far.
Speaker 5: Only about a fifth of companies have reported in the index.
Speaker 5: Most of those are financials. We're about a third of
Speaker 5: the way through the financials reporting season. The net results
Speaker 5: of every of the reports so far as that earnings
Speaker 5: are largely tracking a bit better than expected. Instead of
Speaker 5: down about nine percent, they're down about eight and a
Speaker 5: half year over year, and that is including all the
Speaker 5: companies that have reported, as well as those companies that
Speaker 5: have yet to report.
Speaker 2: So we're down but not as bad as but not
Speaker 2: as down as much as everyone says.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's very early, and the price reactions, Dana frankly,
Speaker 5: is really bizarre. When you look at the average price reaction,
Speaker 5: it's much worse than the average across the board to
Speaker 5: a beat, to a miss, to whatever it is, which
Speaker 5: would suggest it's just too early to draw a ton
Speaker 5: of conclusions. And the companies that missed on both the
Speaker 5: Bottoman top line were actually up more than the market,
Speaker 5: so it's there's just a lot of confusion so far.
Speaker 5: I think it's just too early to draw a ton
Speaker 5: of conclusions.
Speaker 4: So when are we going to know? What are the
Speaker 4: sort of bell Weather reports that you're looking forward to?
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, next week you get forty percent of the
Speaker 5: market cup of the index reporting, so by the end
Speaker 5: of next week we'll go from twenty percent having reported
Speaker 5: to sixty percent, so we'll get a ton of context
Speaker 5: next week. Obviously, the highest expectations are in the market
Speaker 5: are for the largest stocks in the market, as well
Speaker 5: as tech, and we get a lot of those next week,
Speaker 5: including Microsoft and Google, which I think will be two
Speaker 5: of the most interesting companies to watch. Sorry, Alphabet, I'm
Speaker 5: showing my teams there. Nonetheless, nonetheless, I think those will
Speaker 5: be two of the most interesting companies to report your
Speaker 5: Microsoft in particular, strading out a really big premium, has
Speaker 5: a potential dollar tailwind that not a lot of people
Speaker 5: are talking about, but also has a lot of AI
Speaker 5: risk and lot of optimist and optimistic sort of sentiment
Speaker 5: imbedded in that price, So we'll see how they can
Speaker 5: contend with those expectations.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've got a guest coming up before the close
Speaker 2: that is keeping his eye on the dollar and thinks
Speaker 2: that is certainly important, especially when it comes to kind
Speaker 2: of earnings in those companies at US, companies that sell overseas.
Speaker 2: Molly Smith come on in FOMC meeting July twenty six.
Speaker 2: Pretty much a done deal in terms of a quarter
Speaker 2: point hike.
Speaker 6: That's the expectation, Carol. Yeah, I can't really imagine anything
Speaker 6: that would happened between now and then that would derail that.
Speaker 6: Of course, famous last words there, but really it would
Speaker 6: be the shock of the century if something through that
Speaker 6: off date. So we does get a little bit more
Speaker 6: interesting data wise after Wednesday, when the Fed meets, we'll
Speaker 6: get a first look at second quarter GDP, and then
Speaker 6: on Friday, one of the Fed's favorite wage measures comes out,
Speaker 6: that Employment Cost Index also for the second quarter, and
Speaker 6: we'll get a look at Said's favorite inflation measures, a
Speaker 6: PCE index. So a lot of exciting things Wednesday through
Speaker 6: Friday coming up next week.
Speaker 4: But they're still on track. I mean, the dot plot
Speaker 4: shows they need to raise two more times and more
Speaker 4: and more. In the markets, we're hearing investors and strategies
Speaker 4: say they only expect one more hike. We don't get
Speaker 4: a new dot plot until the end of the year, right.
Speaker 6: We'll get another one in September. They come out every quarter.
Speaker 6: So I mean, yeah, that especially after we saw that
Speaker 6: CPI report. Was that last week already? I think, yeah,
Speaker 6: last week when the time f live here, you know,
Speaker 6: it was when we saw the headline inflation number coming
Speaker 6: in around three percent, and you know, some slowing in
Speaker 6: the core measure too. I think that really started to
Speaker 6: ramp up the calls for just July to be one
Speaker 6: and done as far as the raid hikes go. So
Speaker 6: still TBD or right, Matt, that the dot plood does
Speaker 6: call for two more of this year, but we'll see how.
Speaker 6: I think Powell's pressed conference will be very informative as
Speaker 6: to how the committee sees the policy pathform here.
Speaker 2: All right, guys, So I'm looking at a tenure right
Speaker 2: now with it's at three point eight. Among our most
Speaker 2: read on the Bloomberg has to do with Bill Gross right,
Speaker 2: formerly a PIMCO, and he is saying that the on
Speaker 2: bull market isn't in the cards, and he says ten
Speaker 2: yure rates to top three point five percent for a long,
Speaker 2: long time, Gine. I want to go back to you,
Speaker 2: how how do you project where you think treasuries ultimately
Speaker 2: land right, which you and I talk a lot about.
Speaker 2: And then in terms of what that means for acid valuations.
Speaker 5: I don't the first starts. I rely on Irid Jersey
Speaker 5: and his forecast for where treasuries are headed. He actually
Speaker 5: thinks that rates are going to fall over the course
Speaker 5: of the next year, in line with what the consensus thinks.
Speaker 5: But maybe we we are past, frankly, the lows of
Speaker 5: the lows. It's really difficult to imagine we go back
Speaker 5: to the twenty twenty levels, twenty twenty twenty one levels
Speaker 5: on treasure I do think that has complications, or has consequences,
Speaker 5: at the very least for equities, because it does suggest
Speaker 5: that sort of your core valuation expectations have to be
Speaker 5: somewhat restrained. In an environment where rates are higher, you
Speaker 5: would anticipate the valuations that you're willing to pay for
Speaker 5: equities across the border generally lower, and we are seeing that,
Speaker 5: but not across the board. I mean, what you're seeing
Speaker 5: in the S and P. Five hundred is a really
Speaker 5: big divergence between the haves and the have nots. In
Speaker 5: terms of valuations. The equal weight to index still trading
Speaker 5: well below pre pandemic averages, would maybe you would argue,
Speaker 5: would reflect higher for longer interest rates. Whereas the top
Speaker 5: five stocks, tops seven stocks in the index and the
Speaker 5: tech sector at large is trading at back at record
Speaker 5: premiums to the rest of the index, and certainly, you know,
Speaker 5: nowhere near looks to be reflecting higher for longer interest rates.
Speaker 5: We've got to see then. The consequences of that are
Speaker 5: you've got to see much much stronger earnings growth to
Speaker 5: justify those current valuations, as tech stocks can grow into
Speaker 5: those expectations via an earnings recovery. But it does create
Speaker 5: a little bit of volatility or expected volatility around earning seasons,
Speaker 5: and certainly at the very least some nervousness around whether
Speaker 5: or not these ducks can satisfy those high expectations.
Speaker 4: Molly, what's your take on the treasury debate? You know,
Speaker 4: Ira Jersey and Morgan Stanley are looking for lower yields.
Speaker 4: I know Matthew Hornback said two to three percent in
Speaker 4: a recent report. But Bill Dudley, who worked at Goldman
Speaker 4: Sachs for twenty years finishing as the chief Economists before
Speaker 4: going on to run the New York Fed, wrote in
Speaker 4: a Bloomberg opinion column last month that he thinks it's
Speaker 4: going to four and a half percent.
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's definitely a lot of different calls out there,
Speaker 6: higher for lower, longer, lower for longer. I mean, at
Speaker 6: least just from the Fed's perspective, it looks like we're
Speaker 6: going to see that Fed funds rate stay at that
Speaker 6: terminal rate probably through the rest of this year. We
Speaker 6: just took a survey of economists as to where they
Speaker 6: see the Fed, among other economic indicators landing over the
Speaker 6: next couple of years, and looks like the economists are
Speaker 6: now expecting fewer rate cuts next year from the Fed
Speaker 6: than they did last month. So it's it's still very
Speaker 6: much a tossup as to where that longer run rate
Speaker 6: is going to be.
Speaker 2: So, Mollie, what are you listening for from j Powell
Speaker 2: next week?
Speaker 3: What's going to be key? In your view?
Speaker 6: I think it's definitely going to be the as much
Speaker 6: forward guidance as he really can give, which is tough
Speaker 6: when you know the officials have stressed so much how
Speaker 6: data dependent they are, but a lot of people are
Speaker 6: I'm sure going to be looking for. Is that second
Speaker 6: rate hike really a done deal or not? And where
Speaker 6: are the where's the committee's thoughts at present of if
Speaker 6: it's going to be necessary?
Speaker 4: And GM A, I guess you're going to be focused
Speaker 4: on earnings. I mean, I don't expect how Kl's not
Speaker 4: going to change his tune one bit, right, so he's
Speaker 4: gonna be a broken record. Is earnings your focus?
Speaker 7: Yeah?
Speaker 5: I mean earning earnings are going to overwhelm everything in
Speaker 5: the equity market. I suspect just given the great you know,
Speaker 5: the large swath of companies and how the size of
Speaker 5: the companies that are reporting. I would say, with respect
Speaker 5: to the FED, the market now the equity market, in
Speaker 5: my opinion, is now more focused on liquidity conditions and
Speaker 5: what's going on with the lending facility, what's going on
Speaker 5: with the balance sheet? You know, where is M two
Speaker 5: going to head over the course of the next year
Speaker 5: or so sort of. The rate discussion is increasingly taking
Speaker 5: a backseat to those conversations right now. So anything with
Speaker 5: respect to what are they doing with the balance sheet
Speaker 5: and what does that really mean for liquidity I think
Speaker 5: could trigger an equity market reaction.
Speaker 4: Carol kicked off the show talking about the Dow Jones
Speaker 4: Industrial Average and Pana Martin Adams is talking about M
Speaker 4: two money supply. What year is it?
Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't know. Remember when we used
Speaker 3: to tract money flows.
Speaker 2: To Oh my god, everything old is new again, all right, Gma,
Speaker 2: And of course Ms Molly Smith Gena Martin Adams Bloomberg
Speaker 2: part of our Bloomberg team here Gene of course with
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence, and Molly is Bloomberg News Economics editor, Gene
Speaker 2: of course, chief equity strategist.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 8: Well.
Speaker 3: US bank stocks have been on a tear this week
Speaker 3: at their.
Speaker 2: Delusion better than feared earnings reports really bringing investors back
Speaker 2: to these shares that have really been beaten to.
Speaker 4: Better than feared. You know, I saw that expression and
Speaker 4: I love it. It's true, right, better than feared? Yeah,
Speaker 4: I just think it was a nice turn of phrase.
Speaker 3: Better than feared. It happens we're talking about Zion's key Corp.
Speaker 2: The KBW Bank Index I think up about seven percent
Speaker 2: this week. So let's get into it with more in
Speaker 2: the group on the public banks from really the growing
Speaker 2: role of lenders, which I truly feel this is the story.
Speaker 3: I think you do two.
Speaker 2: Of the next five to ten years and we'll see
Speaker 2: how it plays out with us and really back with
Speaker 2: Matt who talked with her yesterday on TV as Anna Ursov.
Speaker 3: She's co head of Global.
Speaker 2: Banking of her Moodies on Zoom in New York City. Ana,
Speaker 2: thank you for coming back with us.
Speaker 4: I will say sometimes I have a guest who's so
Speaker 4: good and insightful that I'm like, we need to get
Speaker 4: her on again, and this is the case with Anna.
Speaker 4: So in less than twenty thank you for coming back.
Speaker 9: Yeah, thank you for having me. It's my pleasure.
Speaker 2: Well, well, let me let me throw to you Matt first,
Speaker 2: because what was it that stood out for you that
Speaker 2: you were like, we got to continue this conversation.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I thought she just had great insight
Speaker 4: across the board. But one of the things that really
Speaker 4: got to me was, you know, Carol and I talk
Speaker 4: about private credits so much and we're starting to hear
Speaker 4: more and more about it from bankers who say, this
Speaker 4: is a business, this is kind of getting away from us.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know the Jamie right, Jamie Diamond, you got
Speaker 2: a little sit about that private.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, so tell us about the breakdown on it right now.
Speaker 4: I mean, it's a juicy business that the big six
Speaker 4: Wall Street banks are getting less and less of.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, I think it's it's very topical now,
Speaker 10: I think for the markets, particularly post March when the
Speaker 10: bank distress started, and of course folks turned towards the
Speaker 10: alternative ast managers who have been active in this market,
Speaker 10: you know.
Speaker 9: Quite since probably even before the financial crisis, but I
Speaker 9: was accelerated post twenty fifteen. And there's a reason for that.
Speaker 9: I mean, we'll have to remember something called leverage a
Speaker 9: loan guidelines that was implemented by the US regulators and
Speaker 9: really tightening that arbitraged by the FED implementationenty fifteen that
Speaker 9: captured even the foreign banks that were very big in
Speaker 9: this market, like Broature Bank and Credit Sueeze, et cetera.
Speaker 9: And if you look at when that puotal moment for
Speaker 9: private credit was, it was exactly a year or so
Speaker 9: after implementation of those leverage Manians guidelines. Why is that
Speaker 9: the case? Because simply the large banks couldn't put this
Speaker 9: you know, six seven times very hairy deals in their
Speaker 9: balanceshept and what happened that talent folks who actually ran
Speaker 9: the businesses and Goldman it just credit sweet end up
Speaker 9: going to the private equity shops and said we can
Speaker 9: do this business here and maybe it's a better way
Speaker 9: to do this business outside of the banks.
Speaker 3: So better way or have we just transferred the risk?
Speaker 9: Well, this is the key question. We wrote a number
Speaker 9: of research in questioning the systematic cresk here, and I
Speaker 9: want to be very balanced about this issue. Look, there
Speaker 9: is a you know, the concerning is why these loans
Speaker 9: which are kind of what would argue one of the
Speaker 9: weakest quality loans that would be out there in the system,
Speaker 9: you know, highly levered companies with lots of hair kind
Speaker 9: of it's kind of companies that are very levered, but
Speaker 9: a lot of in this technology sector as well. You know,
Speaker 9: why they shouldn't be on banks balance sheet and why
Speaker 9: the benefits of being on banks balance sheets versus not. Well,
Speaker 9: let me kind of break that from banks balanceship at
Speaker 9: least we will know, we will not transparently what are
Speaker 9: they underwriting. This will be part of the bank reporting,
Speaker 9: We're part of the consolidy data for the banking system,
Speaker 9: and we'll have a little better sense how those are fairing,
Speaker 9: and it will be valued under the shared National survey,
Speaker 9: so we will know actually how those banks are performing,
Speaker 9: and transparency is pretty much uniform. On the other hand,
Speaker 9: we don't have that with a private credit lander, so
Speaker 9: we you know their secret sauces that we will basically
Speaker 9: take these loans. We have a permanent capital to underwrite it.
Speaker 9: And we can see a lot of the founders of
Speaker 9: these businesses over the last couple of months, particularly post
Speaker 9: the bank crisis, they've been talking about we have permanent capital.
Speaker 9: We do not depend on overnight deposit and overnight funding.
Speaker 9: So this is a better form to hold a high
Speaker 9: risk asset.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it makes a lot more sense than the duration
Speaker 4: mismatch problems that we saw up end a couple of banks.
Speaker 4: Speaking of that, on a I've heard more and more
Speaker 4: analysts say the banking crisis is behindh us. It's truly
Speaker 4: well and done. Do you agree?
Speaker 9: And I think as we said is yesterday I repeated
Speaker 9: again for your audience. What happened in March was very idiosyncratic,
Speaker 9: exposing vulnerabilities which I think stem from some lack of
Speaker 9: consistent regulation in the banking system of banks who simply
Speaker 9: had a serious mismatch between us has and liabilities. And
Speaker 9: when you think about what happened with the speed of
Speaker 9: quantity tightening, some were just cut short. Is the banking
Speaker 9: system outside of that, you know, a couple of outfliers.
Speaker 9: You know solid, Yes, we have a solid and strong
Speaker 9: banking system. However, doesn't mean that we are outside of
Speaker 9: the woods. First and foremost. I think this is the
Speaker 9: best probably quarter we'll see in the wild for the originals,
Speaker 9: you know. And why is that the case? Well, what
Speaker 9: we noticed across the board higher deposit cost Yes, there
Speaker 9: was the posit stability which everybody feared, but that came
Speaker 9: at a much higher cost. And we calculated today is
Speaker 9: for the banks that were quoted so far, roughly thirty
Speaker 9: basis points higher deposit costs is quarter for that stability.
Speaker 2: So when you look at the banking sector, the big banks,
Speaker 2: you feel pretty confident about their situation. And then with
Speaker 2: regionals you feel like, what would be the adjective to
Speaker 2: describe them.
Speaker 9: Look what I think it's going to be an interesting
Speaker 9: year two ahead. We have a system that's very unusual
Speaker 9: on a global comparisonal level. You know, four thousand plus banks.
Speaker 3: But is it too many? Is it too many?
Speaker 9: Look, one can argue where it's all about the ability
Speaker 9: to provide a customer depreciation. Community banks do something that's
Speaker 9: very special for the communities, and likely one can argue
Speaker 9: maybe community bank should not be as regulated as little
Speaker 9: complex banks. But what happened was that with the regulation
Speaker 9: and with the tailoring of twenty nineteen really went beyond
Speaker 9: a definition of what a community bank hits community bank
Speaker 9: is roughly, you know, bank less than ten to fifteen
Speaker 9: billion dollars. The regulation affected banks Swore and fifty billion.
Speaker 9: Silicon Valley Bank is not a community bank and did
Speaker 9: not and basically did not have the same capital standards
Speaker 9: or else. He has standards as some of the larger banks,
Speaker 9: and one can argue had its own complexity. So it
Speaker 9: is the system right for consolidation. I think that will
Speaker 9: become more obvious as we see pressures on profitability. Now
Speaker 9: we're seeing it from higher to posit funding, but we
Speaker 9: will see it now from credit costs coming in due time,
Speaker 9: so I think consolidation is eminent.
Speaker 4: What do you think about the valuations that we're looking
Speaker 4: at for these banks? I mean in terms of price
Speaker 4: to book, you know, one point one at Goldman Sachs,
Speaker 4: one point six at JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley's looking at
Speaker 4: one point seven. Do these make sense? Because Mike Mayo
Speaker 4: was on the other day and he was so enthusiastic
Speaker 4: about the fact that he thought the big banks, you know,
Speaker 4: as a block, were undervalued more than he's ever seen them.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I'm coming from a fixedinger perspective, but nevertheless,
Speaker 9: we look at relations of banks from a more of
Speaker 9: a definition of the value of the franchise, which is
Speaker 9: very important to the creators of these banks. And you
Speaker 9: have to admit that GP Morgan is just if there
Speaker 9: was one positive, absolutely clean quarter, that was GP Morgan
Speaker 9: the bank. It's a machine on every in every franchise,
Speaker 9: and one can argue, what is that you know, what
Speaker 9: valuation is appropriate on a relative scale. A Morgan Stanley
Speaker 9: similarly has a great franchise. I mean, they cut costs significantly,
Speaker 9: they could create some opening leverage. Although the capital markets,
Speaker 9: investment banking earnings were low, and they it's again on
Speaker 9: a very good strategic focus for more than a decade
Speaker 9: when they decided to buy the former jewel of City Group,
Speaker 9: so Goldman does not have that. Unfortunately, Goldman went into
Speaker 9: a little bit of experimental focus into consumer that they're
Speaker 9: retracing back. But Goldman has an amazing asset management business
Speaker 9: and focus on alternatives, and they reported that that fundraising
Speaker 9: and focused alternatives actually paying pretty You've got good premium
Speaker 9: so far. And they're trying to restructure their co investment portfolio,
Speaker 9: so they will be a little bit painful until they
Speaker 9: get to their targets the next year in terms of
Speaker 9: the ministment business and tweaking that balance usage. But Coleman
Speaker 9: has a phenomenal franchise of course all popital markets investment banking.
Speaker 9: So again I would leave that to equity analyst in
Speaker 9: terms of relations. But all of those banks are doing
Speaker 9: very well.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 3: Super cool to talk with you.
Speaker 4: I wish we had more time.
Speaker 2: Yeah, come back soon. That was right, rockstar like. It
Speaker 2: was just really interesting in terms of what we covered. Anna,
Speaker 2: thank you so much of a great weekend. Anna ourself.
Speaker 2: She's co head of Global Banking over at Moody's on
Speaker 2: zoom in New York City.
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Speaker 3: I've been looking at bitcoin.
Speaker 2: They they mister bitcoin, those people over at bitcoin. It
Speaker 2: did reach a fresh high for the year earlier this month,
Speaker 2: but we've seen maybe it kind of settle into a
Speaker 2: range because we have a great story in the bloom
Speaker 2: But that talks about the momentum maybe not sustainable because
Speaker 2: you've got prices stuck.
Speaker 4: I'll tell you what. What fearless here are so desperate
Speaker 4: to call the demise of bitcoin? I mean, maybe they're
Speaker 4: just for thirty thousand dollars. I bought one for six.
Speaker 3: Hundred, okay, but that's how many years ago.
Speaker 4: Ten years ago? What else has gone from six hundred
Speaker 4: to thirty ten years?
Speaker 3: Okay? Fine, how come you're still working then if.
Speaker 4: It went that high because I only bought one, Okay.
Speaker 3: Anyway, we want to talk into we want to talk.
Speaker 2: A little bit about the world of crypto because we've
Speaker 2: had some court rulings that some have said is positive.
Speaker 2: We've definitely seen some of the traditional finance guys continue
Speaker 2: to kind of up their bets it looks like, and
Speaker 2: moving into the space. So let's get into it with
Speaker 2: Rob Frosca. He's co founder and managing partner at the
Speaker 2: investment firm Cosmo Ventures. They invest in digital assets and
Speaker 2: blockchain companies. He's on Zoom in Boston.
Speaker 3: Hey, welcome back.
Speaker 7: How are you here? It does the afternoon?
Speaker 3: Is Matt right? What other investment has done?
Speaker 4: So Rob, I feel like we're just I think the
Speaker 4: crypto community has set expectations wait way too high, because
Speaker 4: I always hear journalists pooh poohing crypto since it hasn't
Speaker 4: completely taken over the global financial system yet in ten years.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 7: Well, you know, some people could say we're in the
Speaker 7: trough of despair right now, right you know that you
Speaker 7: know that bubble cycle where you know, the bubble pops
Speaker 7: and then everything kind of comes down and then all
Speaker 7: of a sudden everything goes goes to the moon again.
Speaker 7: I think we're in that kind of trough of despair.
Speaker 7: Right now. But there's some lot of really interesting stuff
Speaker 7: going on.
Speaker 4: Well, you had Blackrock filing an application for an ETA
Speaker 4: among others. I'm like, who.
Speaker 7: Hasn't filed an application seven now?
Speaker 4: And you had Larry Fink, you know, hater of crypto,
Speaker 4: champion of ESG go on Fox Business News and say
Speaker 4: we need to tokenize more assets. I mean, if that
Speaker 4: doesn't tell you something, I don't know what does.
Speaker 7: Yeah, look i'll tell you. So I've been in this
Speaker 7: market now since twenty fourteen, We've been investing in blockchain,
Speaker 7: and I'll tell you what I think is going on
Speaker 7: right now in the US is kind of I call
Speaker 7: it the Great trad Fire, the great traditional finance takeover. Right,
Speaker 7: So when you when you when you see the sec
Speaker 7: right they're coming down on different different projects, coming on
Speaker 7: on lack of regulation. And by the way, the rest
Speaker 7: of the world has regulation. But when you see that
Speaker 7: happen in the big pullback, and then all of a sudden,
Speaker 7: you know, Ripple wins their case, Library wins their case,
Speaker 7: and then black Roc comes out with an ETF. Look,
Speaker 7: Blackroc doesn't do anything unless they unless they kind of
Speaker 7: know where it's going to go, right, So, so there's
Speaker 7: some interesting things kind of packed up in this. One
Speaker 7: of the things that's important to understand about about Blackrock
Speaker 7: and this ETF is number one, Coinbase is doing the
Speaker 7: custody for it, okay, number two. More importantly, Nasdek is
Speaker 7: doing the surveillance on it. And that is the key, right,
Speaker 7: because the SEC is worried about market manipulation when it
Speaker 7: comes to crypto, and so rightfully, so right, and rightfully
Speaker 7: so right exactly and and and so so. Now now
Speaker 7: I don't know if you guys heard the CEO of Nasdek, right,
Speaker 7: and then you know they have this custody product for crypto.
Speaker 7: And I always kind of shook my head and said,
Speaker 7: why why are they doing that? Right? Because Nasdek has
Speaker 7: two businesses. They have exchange business and they have a
Speaker 7: software business that's really about surveillance, risk management, you know, uh,
Speaker 7: fraud detection, all of that kind of thing. So why
Speaker 7: would they be building a custodian And so recently in
Speaker 7: the in their in their earnings announcement, they she said, look,
Speaker 7: we're going to put a hold on that, on that
Speaker 7: custody business, and everybody went crazy, Oh my god, what
Speaker 7: does that mean. I'll tell you what it means. What
Speaker 7: the US wants is they want the exchanges and the
Speaker 7: custodians to be separate, and and and so and and
Speaker 7: if you look fidelity, right, they and and and Charles
Speaker 7: Schwab and Citadel. What do they do? They just launched
Speaker 7: an ed X, a new crypto exchange. The most important
Speaker 7: word in that sentence is non custodial exchanges. So I think,
Speaker 7: you know, when you look at how this is playing out,
Speaker 7: you've got the big guys coming in with ETF products,
Speaker 7: You've got proper surveillance being put in place with with Nasdaq,
Speaker 7: and then you've got bigger players coming into the to
Speaker 7: the exchange business and a non custodi way. So so
Speaker 7: I really think, you know, what's that saying right with
Speaker 7: Warren Buffett? Right, be fearful when others are greedy, be
Speaker 7: greedy when others are fearful.
Speaker 1: Man, what is it?
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're right, Buppet, Yeah right.
Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, you know. I just think I just think, look,
Speaker 7: there's a lot of fear. But when you got these
Speaker 7: big traditional finance players coming in and they are telegraphing
Speaker 7: the market, they're telegraphing the market to say, look the
Speaker 7: way that these exchanges need to work are non custodial,
Speaker 7: and then nasdek is coming in doing surveillance.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 7: So anyways that I'm excited about this because you know,
Speaker 7: as an investor, I sit back. I mean, what's Kathy Wouold,
Speaker 7: what's her prediction on let me look it up here?
Speaker 4: One point million?
Speaker 2: Yeah, about one and a half one point four.
Speaker 7: By twenty thirty. You know, don't forget right, don't forget this.
Speaker 7: There's there's there's only a limited supply of bitcoin and
Speaker 7: you know.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, and by the way, that comes in our
Speaker 2: David Weston caught up with Adana Friedman, who's the CEO
Speaker 2: NAZAC president and CEO, and they talked specifically about that.
Speaker 2: So anybody who wants to hear a little bit more
Speaker 2: about it directly from her can check it out on
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg or at Bloomberg dot com. Having said that, Robert,
Speaker 2: you play in the blockchain space right largely or predominantly
Speaker 2: or only?
Speaker 8: Why?
Speaker 7: Well, look, so I'm a dot com entrepreneur. I actually
Speaker 7: started the very first financial service on the internet, first
Speaker 7: stock quilt server. I'm talking nineteen ninety three, quick and
Speaker 7: bought it. I want to become a quick and financial network.
Speaker 7: I did it. I did one of the world's first
Speaker 7: AI companies out of Carnegie Mellon with our CTO. We
Speaker 7: sold it to Licos, took that public. So I've been
Speaker 7: in this market for a while and when blockchain emerged,
Speaker 7: what I immediately realized is that this is this is
Speaker 7: this is the piece of the Internet that's been missing.
Speaker 7: And what that is is basically that that peer to
Speaker 7: peer networked, decentralized kind of trust layer. Uh. That that
Speaker 7: that everybody needs, uh, the ability to clear transactions peer
Speaker 7: to peer in a trustful way and in a resilient way.
Speaker 7: It's kind of a geeky way, right, it's my Carnegie
Speaker 7: mamil and kind of batching the geek cree way. So
Speaker 7: for me, I think blockchain is probably, you know, I'm
Speaker 7: gonna put a little hyperbole here, probably I think it's
Speaker 7: there's going to be more value created there than the
Speaker 7: Internet itself, like it because it's the value layer of
Speaker 7: the Internet. So anyway, I'm all in on blockchain all in.
Speaker 4: So what are you actually doing in in the space.
Speaker 4: You have VC investments, Yeah, so we.
Speaker 7: Have we actually so we have a venture fund that
Speaker 7: invests in uh in the space and being pioneers that
Speaker 7: we are, we decided to tokenize it and we were
Speaker 7: the second VC fund to do that. I think we're
Speaker 7: the only evergreen VC fund to do that. We use Securitize,
Speaker 7: who now is doing KKR and a bunch of others.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 7: So we really became and we did that to really
Speaker 7: become experts in the space. It's you know, we were
Speaker 7: so early. We didn't think, you know, liquidity was going
Speaker 7: to fall out of a sky, right. Uh, it's in
Speaker 7: my in my opinion, it's still early. Uh, but we
Speaker 7: wanted to know the market, so we tokenized it. And
Speaker 7: what that fund does is invest in all kinds of
Speaker 7: early stage ill liquid generally blockchain assets, from the networks
Speaker 7: to web three to UH to the infrastructure, to the
Speaker 7: tokenization platforms across the board. And then we have a
Speaker 7: hedge fund that we're now launching, which is actually a
Speaker 7: risk managed fund, uh, and it's all proof of steak
Speaker 7: digital assets. So there's actually the ability to generate a
Speaker 7: yield while to the market with alpha.
Speaker 3: All right, gotta leave it on that note.
Speaker 4: What Matt, I'm just thinking, like I wonder if Gary
Speaker 4: Gensler is gonna come knocking on your door anytime soon.
Speaker 3: Where are you.
Speaker 4: We'll leave that for another time.
Speaker 7: Everything we do, everything we do is you know, is regulated, right,
Speaker 7: so we're not the project worthy.
Speaker 2: Investments, all right, Rob, Have a good weekend. Rob Rosca,
Speaker 2: He's maaging partner of Cosmo Ventures from Boston.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App,
Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: New issue, by the way up, the magazine is out
Speaker 2: on the cover store about WeightWatchers company Noon Now has
Speaker 2: w W.
Speaker 3: It's going to always be like that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's so silly. It's it's Weight Watchers.
Speaker 3: All right, Well it's WW.
Speaker 2: But anyway, the story's about its last shot, perhaps in
Speaker 2: terms of strategy, by embracing the wonder diet drugs of
Speaker 2: we goo vi and ozembic, those drugs we've been all
Speaker 2: talking about it the world has been making headlines because
Speaker 2: of their use among celebrities and influencers because they make
Speaker 2: you lose a lot of weight. They're expensive, but we
Speaker 2: really wanted to get a medical view on them. So
Speaker 2: great to have back with us. Is doctor Ian los Pader,
Speaker 2: Clinical Professor of Medicine at NYU Lango Medical Center on
Speaker 2: Zoom in New York City.
Speaker 3: How are you? How are you? How's your summer going?
Speaker 11: Great? Thanks Carol, Matt great to see you. Yeah, summer's
Speaker 11: going great. Scuba diving, it's been fun.
Speaker 3: Would you go scuba diving Bermuda.
Speaker 11: Which is quite beautiful? Actually great, great coral reefs in
Speaker 11: the middle of the Atlantic. Who would have guessed.
Speaker 3: You're not talking you.
Speaker 4: That's fantastic.
Speaker 2: You're talking to two divers. I've never gone diving at Bermuda.
Speaker 3: Really beautiful.
Speaker 11: Yeah, yeah, forty feet. There's a shelf, a bit of
Speaker 11: a continental shelf there, great coral, a few Rex from
Speaker 11: the eighteen hundreds.
Speaker 3: Very cool.
Speaker 4: That's fantastic.
Speaker 3: All right. We're going to switch gears though, because we
Speaker 3: do want to talk to you.
Speaker 4: I especially have questions because I want to use this stuff,
Speaker 4: so I Doc, I gotta say, have real trouble keeping
Speaker 4: off the pounds. I need to lose twenty at least
Speaker 4: twenty pounds. And the issue is I get home at
Speaker 4: night after a long day at work and after dinner,
Speaker 4: I grabbed the hogendaws and I just can't stop myself
Speaker 4: from doing it. Now I realize it's my weak will
Speaker 4: that's the issue. But I hope that if I could
Speaker 4: get a hold of just a little bit of a zempic,
Speaker 4: that could solve the problem.
Speaker 11: Well, you, you and a lot of people. It's become
Speaker 11: very popular, but you know, why do we care about
Speaker 11: weight and obesity? It's really more than just appearance. I mean, obviously,
Speaker 11: over the ages, appearance as standards have changed. In the
Speaker 11: seventeen and eighteen hundreds, being more overweight was attractive. Now
Speaker 11: we realize, you know, it's more attractive to be thinner,
Speaker 11: but it's also there are really serious health risks associated
Speaker 11: with obesity. The concern, of course, is forty percent of
Speaker 11: Americans are obese, two thirds are overweight, and we really
Speaker 11: define that as a BMI or body mass index, which
Speaker 11: is a calculation based on height and weight. So people
Speaker 11: whose weight is too big for their height have an
Speaker 11: elevated BMI and really over twenty five BMI is overweight
Speaker 11: and over thirty is obese, But who cares that? The
Speaker 11: reason is we see a much higher incidence of type
Speaker 11: two diabetes, beatty liver sleep, batanya, heart disease, sudden death, cancers,
Speaker 11: increased risks of breast cancer, colon cancer, liver cancer. So
Speaker 11: it's not just appearance. We really want to get weight
Speaker 11: to a more ideal level to reduce the risks, and
Speaker 11: in fact, we really do reduce morbidity and mortality when
Speaker 11: we get the weight down. It's also a cost issue.
Speaker 11: Over two hundred and sixty billion dollars a year is
Speaker 11: spent on obesity related issues, that includes medical costs, lost work, disability.
Speaker 11: The question is how do you do it? How do
Speaker 11: you get the weight down? And really in the old days,
Speaker 11: it was like, well, just eat less calories and burn
Speaker 11: and work calories. But we now know it's more complicated.
Speaker 11: They're genetic.
Speaker 4: Is it really more complicated than that? For most people die?
Speaker 4: Because when I do want to lose weight, all I
Speaker 4: do is eat healthy and exercise, and guess what the
Speaker 4: pounds follow.
Speaker 2: Matt keeps saying in He keeps being like, you just
Speaker 2: got to be strong and not eat, and he's like,
Speaker 2: it's just your.
Speaker 3: You know, you can control this health, which is true.
Speaker 11: For many patients. But many patients based on their genetics,
Speaker 11: based on food density. People eat burgers, and so forth.
Speaker 11: You know the fast food which is a higher calorie, Well,
Speaker 11: you can't do that. You can't do that.
Speaker 4: You got to eat fruits and vegetables and exercise.
Speaker 11: Right, Yes, that is absolutely true. But for those people
Speaker 11: who can't do that, whether it's discipline or other issues,
Speaker 11: they are a whole host of medications. In the old
Speaker 11: days we would do like some fat blockers and diabetes meds.
Speaker 11: But as researchers began to look at various meds for
Speaker 11: diabetes type two diabetes, they found these GLP one agonists
Speaker 11: which work on receptors in the brain and the gut
Speaker 11: and do laglatite, some aglatide laglatide. All of these things
Speaker 11: are for example, like wagovi or ozempic is one generation.
Speaker 11: We have some newer ones cultures epetite made by Lily
Speaker 11: or Manjaro. They all of these medications work both at
Speaker 11: the brain to suppress appetite, which is very effective. Also
Speaker 11: in the gut. It slows motility, the stomach empties slower.
Speaker 11: You feel more full, but you can also get some
Speaker 11: complications from that nausea, heartburn, sometimes vomiting, constipation, but occasionally
Speaker 11: even more serious things like pancreatitis or gallbladder issues, very
Speaker 11: very rare thyroid issues, so you really need to be
Speaker 11: reamed or you appropriate. And it's also cost insurance. These
Speaker 11: are very expensive because they're all on patent, no generics,
Speaker 11: so insurance does not want to pay for it. For
Speaker 11: a casual weight loss, you really need to be certain
Speaker 11: criteria for example, like diabetes. Some insurance companies will pay
Speaker 11: for obesity, but most private insurance really insists that you
Speaker 11: have type two diabetes. And there are some patients who
Speaker 11: are obese but their sugars are Okay.
Speaker 3: Hey, can I ask you something?
Speaker 2: And this is going to go into the woke world,
Speaker 2: you know, because I do feel like over the years
Speaker 2: there's been pressure to embrace especially for kids. You know,
Speaker 2: when kids or just individuals are overweight. But he's so fat,
Speaker 2: they'll stop, stop, stop to be more welcoming. But I
Speaker 2: there are health implications of being overweight.
Speaker 3: I can't tell you how.
Speaker 2: Many times, like a doctor's like, I'm so glad.
Speaker 4: You know, he just went through the list of things
Speaker 4: that happen.
Speaker 3: I know, so, but how how do you balance that?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 2: Because we're supposed to be more accepting of variations in individuals,
Speaker 2: but from a medical perspective, it's not healthy.
Speaker 11: Yeah, no, you can't be accepting. I mean, of course
Speaker 11: people had various issues and orientations, but when it comes
Speaker 11: to weight, diabetes, fatty liver, liver disease, it's not okay
Speaker 11: to say, well, that's just you know, how you want
Speaker 11: to be. We have to we know medically this is unhealthy.
Speaker 11: It increases the risk of complications in early death. And
Speaker 11: for patients who want to work with the doctor, we
Speaker 11: do have various approaches. Now, how long you have to
Speaker 11: stay on it? Are the risks of the medications we
Speaker 11: want over those and also the patients who do lose weight,
Speaker 11: and we do see a lot of patients lose thirty
Speaker 11: forty fifty pounds ten percent of their body mass, which
Speaker 11: is great. How long did they have to stay on it?
Speaker 11: Can they taper off? They're really a lot of questions,
Speaker 11: not to mention the cost of the medications. I wish
Speaker 11: it was so easy as diet and exercise. Just be disciplined.
Speaker 11: That works for some people, but often not. And the
Speaker 11: ability to come in and say, you know what, on medication,
Speaker 11: I'm just not hungry, I feel full and I've lost
Speaker 11: weight is a very nice got it right?
Speaker 2: I thank you, doctor Ian las Bader of NYU Land going.
Speaker 8: I'm rolling Marc.
Speaker 1: Journal.
Speaker 4: How about you let me drive? No no, no, no's.
Speaker 1: Honey please, I'll do the riding gravels.
Speaker 2: Let's I want to drive.
Speaker 9: It's the question time.
Speaker 1: This is the drive to the Globe dot com. Think
Speaker 1: we'll round to shut it on on Blueberg Radio.
Speaker 2: All right, everybody, we've got just under eighteen minutes left
Speaker 2: in today's training session, getting ready to wrap up the weekend,
Speaker 2: the day on this Friday, and kind of bouncing around here.
Speaker 2: We've got like gan as you just heard from Charlie
Speaker 2: up on the S and P and the Dabba, call
Speaker 2: it really changed, call it flat if you look at
Speaker 2: the trade here. Let's get to it though, and bring
Speaker 2: in Ryan Dietrich, his chief markets Drudge, is over at
Speaker 2: the Carsoon Group and he joins us on the phone
Speaker 2: from Charlotte, North Carolina.
Speaker 3: Hey, Ryan, nice to have you back with us technically.
Speaker 3: What's jumping out at you when you look at the markets?
Speaker 8: Yeah, good, good afternoon. Thanks leving me back. When you
Speaker 8: think about it, there's a lot of positive things happening. Caroly.
Speaker 8: I think this week that got me though with banks,
Speaker 8: right banks. They had the earnings last week and some
Speaker 8: this week. Banks have really been strong, they've been breaking out.
Speaker 8: I mean, we all know what we've heard the first
Speaker 8: half of the year. Technology communication has done amazing and
Speaker 8: it's true, right, But one of our themes at our
Speaker 8: media outlook that we just released the Carson Group last
Speaker 8: week is is broadening out and to see banks and
Speaker 8: financials in general really starting to do well along with
Speaker 8: an energy to the better industrials doing better is that theme,
Speaker 8: and the see banks leading. It's just hard to think
Speaker 8: there's this big scary recession coming that we keep hearing about.
Speaker 8: We haven't thought that. We've been in the no recession
Speaker 8: camp all year. It's quite lonely, get a little more
Speaker 8: crowded now. But do see banks doing well as what
Speaker 8: impresses me technically here.
Speaker 4: So the banks we've been talking about this day, all
Speaker 4: day today and also the last couple of days. The
Speaker 4: valuations are extremely low. If I look at Bank America,
Speaker 4: price to book is one even Goldman Sachs, I know
Speaker 4: they had a bit of a disappointing quarter, but price
Speaker 4: to book is one point one. Why are these things
Speaker 4: you think valued so poorly?
Speaker 3: Did we lose him. All right, we lost him.
Speaker 4: Okay, Well did he hang up on us?
Speaker 2: I think he was mad because he's actually on the
Speaker 2: phone in Cincinnati, and.
Speaker 3: I think I missed up.
Speaker 4: Oh I thought it was Charlotte.
Speaker 3: No, no, no, no, it's okay. No, he's not mad.
Speaker 3: He's a super nice guy. We're going to try and
Speaker 3: reconnect with him. But good question.
Speaker 2: Right, You've been looking at this right in terms of
Speaker 2: bank valuations to try and understand a little bit.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm just trying to wrap my head round why
Speaker 4: they're doing so badly, especially in a market that's you know,
Speaker 4: s and P forty five hundred doesn't necessarily signal a
Speaker 4: recession coming anytime soon to me. I guess you could
Speaker 4: say that the bank stocks are being valued by the
Speaker 4: same people.
Speaker 3: It should be close to one, right though, that's what
Speaker 3: you want.
Speaker 4: More than one. More than one just means they're valued
Speaker 4: at the stuff they have, all right, you know, don't
Speaker 4: they have any future at all?
Speaker 3: So ask his question.
Speaker 2: He's a technician fundamentally. But let's see what he's back.
Speaker 8: Is he back?
Speaker 7: Yes?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 4: How do you know this stuff? And I don't because
Speaker 4: I am a boys Ryan. Hey, sorry, we lost you there.
Speaker 4: Just wondering about the bank valuations. I mean, to me,
Speaker 4: they're so sorry about that. To me, they're not telling
Speaker 4: the same story as you know, the overall stock market
Speaker 4: s and P forty five hundred, we're up what eighteen
Speaker 4: percent year to date, looks fantastic, and yet the bank
Speaker 4: stocks Goldman Sachs valued at one point one time his
Speaker 4: book Bank America is valued at its book.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, you think about it, that's a potential positive.
Speaker 8: Now the banks have had the problems. We know about
Speaker 8: the inverge yield curve and some of the concerns that
Speaker 8: are out there, so that could be playing into some
Speaker 8: of it. And the truth again is earnings are the spectacular. No,
Speaker 8: but we know it's all relative, right, it's just kind
Speaker 8: of where relative expectations. I know, American Express is not
Speaker 8: a bank, but you look at what American Express just said,
Speaker 8: you know, record spending, don't see the consumers slowing down.
Speaker 8: Those things all make sense. And we all know the
Speaker 8: seven big stocks. We've heard a lot about that. If
Speaker 8: you look at the four ninety three, take out those seven,
Speaker 8: you know, four or twelve month earnings are like right
Speaker 8: in the line it would have been in the past,
Speaker 8: you know, the twenty years. So again, yes, Tech's had
Speaker 8: his big run, but other parts of the world are
Speaker 8: relatively cheap. And I'll say one final comment on this.
Speaker 8: We like small caps and mid caps. We like them
Speaker 8: a lot because we don't see a recession. Those areas
Speaker 8: are historically cheap if you go back multiple decades relative
Speaker 8: to large caps. So again it is broadening out. Happens financial,
Speaker 8: small caps, industrial energy, they all are pretty dark, good dusts.
Speaker 4: How would you play them, Ryan, would you buy an ets?
Speaker 4: You know, would you buy individual stocks? How do you
Speaker 4: play small caps in mid mid caps?
Speaker 8: Yeah, we would stick with just ETFs or mutual funds.
Speaker 8: I I can't do too much of the individual equities anyway,
Speaker 8: but when it comes to ETFs, I think that's that's
Speaker 8: kind of nicest way to play. To play a lot
Speaker 8: of those things, especially midcaps. Midcaps are what everybody talks about.
Speaker 8: Small caps and large caps. Midcaps just kind of get
Speaker 8: left right. But again, you look at what's going with
Speaker 8: the earnings and some of the fundamentals. There are some
Speaker 8: really solid MidCap names in there, and that's a group.
Speaker 8: We're overweight small caps and midcaps. We're all year We're
Speaker 8: still in that camp for a second half, continued to
Speaker 8: catch up trade.
Speaker 6: Hey.
Speaker 2: Ryan, one thing we talk about is we're seeing increasingly
Speaker 2: economists stop talking about recession and rotcheting hire their second
Speaker 2: quarter and third quarter GDP estimates. At the same time
Speaker 2: you see US equity strategists upping their forecast for the
Speaker 2: S and P five hundred. They were really wrong at
Speaker 2: the beginning of you know, if you go back to
Speaker 2: what they were saying at the beginning of the year.
Speaker 2: John Authors of Bloomberg News has an interesting story about
Speaker 2: all of that.
Speaker 4: Having She'll got five more months for them.
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, all right, But still we've gone halfway through
Speaker 3: the year.
Speaker 2: Fundamentally, you know, we've also talked a lot about a
Speaker 2: rolling recession perhaps.
Speaker 3: Than kind of a full on recession.
Speaker 2: Do you see any kind of fundamental or technicals playing
Speaker 2: out in the market that says that if you look
Speaker 2: at housing versus maybe cyccles versus discretionary.
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm just curious if you're seeing any of that.
Speaker 8: Yeah, we're not seeing any major signs of weakness right now,
Speaker 8: anything about that. Like you just mentioned, it was an
Speaker 8: equal weight discretionary relative to equal weight staples, plain and
Speaker 8: simple extreme strength there, which is what you tend to
Speaker 8: see when it's risk on scenarios. And now, I'll be honest,
Speaker 8: coming into this year, we thought the SMP could gained
Speaker 8: about fifteen percent for the year. We're one of the
Speaker 8: more polish people out there also saying no recession, and
Speaker 8: I get it. We're right where we are. We're above
Speaker 8: actually the stocks markets above and we did upgrade our
Speaker 8: view on equities like a lot of other people. Now
Speaker 8: we're one of the more bullish people. And you could
Speaker 8: say we still say we're wrong. You know, we've been
Speaker 8: over at equities all year, but we're we're seeing just
Speaker 8: so much good things that are taking place. And you
Speaker 8: mentioned cinema. Let's talk about cinema just for a second.
Speaker 8: Here the AAII poll, it came in over fifty percent bowls,
Speaker 8: the highest level since April of twenty twenty one. I
Speaker 8: took a look, when you have the first time there's
Speaker 8: fifty percent balls or more, which is a lot. That's
Speaker 8: a lot with a year without having it for a
Speaker 8: long time. People didn't believe. Then they believe what happens
Speaker 8: next when you look back thirty years, right the next
Speaker 8: six months or higher, like every single time up close
Speaker 8: to double digit returns on average. So just because they're
Speaker 8: starting to see some bulls finally come back, you need
Speaker 8: bulls for a bull market to take place. We're finally
Speaker 8: seeing some bulls come in, and that we don't think
Speaker 8: that means is this run is about to end. In fact,
Speaker 8: we thinks there's still a good deal left to it.
Speaker 8: But it is interesting to see so many people jumping
Speaker 8: on the bullish bandwagon here in the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 2: I don't know Julian Emmanuel ever at Emma cry As,
Speaker 2: I calls it the strategist short squeeze, So basically they
Speaker 2: were on the wrong.
Speaker 3: Side and everybody's kind of ratcheting up their estimates. Ryan,
Speaker 3: thank you so much.
Speaker 2: Ryand Turkey's chief market strategist are at the Carson Group
Speaker 2: joining us on the phone in Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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