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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: The single best idea A really interesting Thursday, sort of

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Speaker 2: midsummer but not summer doldrums. The way this market's going

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Speaker 2: in the stimulus to the halves, the financialization of America.

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Speaker 2: It's certainly not a dull August. But it was a

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Speaker 2: great cross section of guests. Today. Anna Wong joined us,

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Speaker 2: of course with the Bloomberg Economics, a brilliant report out

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Speaker 2: and really the first one to begin to think about

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Speaker 2: not a quarter point twenty five beep cut here by

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Speaker 2: the Fed in September vote, could it be two quarter

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Speaker 2: points a fifty basis point beat on the labor economy

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Speaker 2: on the Fed, Anna Wong.

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Speaker 3: The two months backward revision of two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 3: eight thousand drop in May and June's pay roles was

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Speaker 3: a three standard deviation outside of the mean phenomenon, and

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Speaker 3: that in a normal distribution means there's only a less

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Speaker 3: than a zero point two percent chance to see a

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Speaker 3: decline in jobs as large as as in terms of revisions.

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Speaker 3: And then when we drill into details, they found that well,

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Speaker 3: if you look at the private sector revisions, those are

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Speaker 3: there's a story there, and the probability of that happening

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Speaker 3: is actually not that out of line. You know, it's possible.

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Speaker 3: And however, the real black swan really is happening in

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Speaker 3: the government sector because normally the collection of government data

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Speaker 3: does not go through such big drastic changes in response

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Speaker 3: rates as the private sector does. And I did say

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Speaker 3: in the black Swan piece, which is that I.

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Speaker 4: Think fifty bits could be in play because of all

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Speaker 4: these revisions, stuff that could happen in the August jobs

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Speaker 4: report that could make everything worse, plus the per andary

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Speaker 4: benchmark revisions.

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Speaker 2: Somehow I think we could I'm not going to predict it,

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Speaker 2: but we could see more of that Moving towards the

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Speaker 2: September I believe seventeenth meeting, we have Jackson Hole out there.

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Speaker 2: We'll be there with Lisa Bramowitz and Michael McKee leading

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Speaker 2: our coverage. All of a sudden interesting Jackson Hole to

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Speaker 2: say the least, CPI data next week, and of course

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Speaker 2: the jobs report for August I believe it's September fifth

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Speaker 2: as well. Onto that meeting, we'll see if doctor Wong

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Speaker 2: gets her fifty basis points really good analysis of the

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Speaker 2: American economy with a Midwest field out of the Ohio

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Speaker 2: State's Columbus Ohio with Nationwide Kathleen miss Johnson, we.

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Speaker 5: Have done that exercise, and part of the calculus that

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Speaker 5: we're doing that is you've got to look at this

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Speaker 5: live side of things. So I think it may be

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Speaker 5: tough to get to five percent. In fact, we see

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Speaker 5: it kind of peaking around four point six percent, maybe

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Speaker 5: four to seven at most, but you're decline and supply,

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Speaker 5: so that means the unemployment rate itself doesn't climb that much.

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Speaker 2: This came up at least three times today. I've asked

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Speaker 2: it before. You know, it's not an original idea, but

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Speaker 2: let's go with it. Is a five percent unemployment rate

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five, the same as a five percent

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Speaker 2: unemployment rate, say in twenty fifteen. Or to go more granular,

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Speaker 2: is Kathleen bus Johnstick did there is a four point

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Speaker 2: six percent unemployment rate, the new five percent. There's a

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Speaker 2: lot going on on labor demand and labors supply. We

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Speaker 2: demand you listen out on your podcast out on Apple,

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Speaker 2: on Spotify, and on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea