WEBVTT - Guy Hands Says Poland Will Soon Be Richer Than Britain 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:02.120 You can understand I love the UK to hat up 0:00:02.160 --> 0:00:04.880 and as it was system I do. I would like 0:00:04.960 --> 0:00:08.479 to somehow get that across because people think I'm latively. 0:00:08.640 --> 0:00:12.360 I'm really not. I'm just negative on not politicians. 0:00:20.280 --> 0:00:23.360 I'm David Merritt and I'm Francie Blackwall and this is 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:26.400 in the City, Bloombog's podcast, connecting you to the conversations 0:00:26.400 --> 0:00:28.320 at the heart of the City of London. 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:28.920 Dave. 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:31.440 This week billionaire investor Guy Hans. He's a founder of 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:32.760 private equity from Terra FIRMA. 0:00:32.960 --> 0:00:34.800 Yes, I was very excited to talk to Guy. He's 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:37.800 been one of the most famous and high profile UK 0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:41.520 investors for decades and of course one of the most 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:47.280 vocal critics of Brexit and pretty pessimistic about Britain. So 0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:51.839 I really wanted to dive into his views on Britain 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:54.600 and the future, but also not just hearing moan about 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:58.360 it all. Try to offer us some solutions, Francie, We. 0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:01.880 Try and challenge him to out what the possible solutions 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:05.280 for him would be to put the UK back on track. Guy, 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:08.039 welcome to the podcast. You've been one of the most 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:10.360 bearish on the UK as far as I can remember, 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:12.800 certainly since the Brexit vote, has that changed. 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:17.240 No, it hasn't. That's actually was I was pretty bullish 0:01:17.240 --> 0:01:22.360 on the UK in twenty ten right through twenty twelve, 0:01:23.560 --> 0:01:27.480 but I was probably Yeah, I was very keen on 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:32.720 an expansionist policy then rather than a very conservative strategy, 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:38.120 and I probably remained against a Maverick and probably, you know, 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:42.839 economically on the opposite side of the Conservative Party. 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:46.479 Obviously we've had a lot of economic termilk, guy, and 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:50.200 you've come out and criticized the government. You've criticized Brexit 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:54.480 obviously extensively. Is there any signs of optimism now we've 0:01:54.480 --> 0:01:56.960 got a new administration trying to get things like an 0:01:57.040 --> 0:02:01.080 inflation under control. The turmoil of last auto is definitely 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:04.560 in the past where you predicted possibly an IMF bailout 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:09.040 for Britain. Are there any signs of positive outlook on 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:09.600 the horizon? 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:12.440 It's certainly a lot better than it was then. I mean, 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:15.280 that was just a horrendous situation and it was quite 0:02:15.360 --> 0:02:19.400 quite clear by how long this trust survived that even 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:23.320 the Conservative Party realized that her economic policies would be 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:27.239 absolute disastrous and probably would have needed some form of bailout. 0:02:27.280 --> 0:02:29.840 I mean, you know, we were really running a huge 0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:32.639 risk of an incredible run on the pound. I think 0:02:32.680 --> 0:02:38.560 the slightly sad thing about list Trust and that time 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:43.160 was that her argument that the UK needed to become 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:48.040 much more productive on a global basis to be competitive 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:51.280 was one hundred percent right. I don't think her idea 0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:53.839 about how you got it was right, which was really, 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:56.600 you know, you flogged the people until they until they smile. 0:02:56.960 --> 0:03:01.400 But I do think her understand that the UK is 0:03:01.440 --> 0:03:05.960 in a really bad place was correct, and that she 0:03:06.120 --> 0:03:09.320 was basically putting forward back in twenty ten and it 0:03:09.360 --> 0:03:11.200 was pretty consistent. So I'm not quite sure when the 0:03:11.200 --> 0:03:13.520 Conservatives put her in as leader what they expected her 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:15.160 to do, because what she did was what she said 0:03:15.160 --> 0:03:17.600 she was going to do. The issue in the UK 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:21.200 has is how outside of Europe is it going to 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:24.520 be competitive on a world stage, and how does it 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:27.640 become competitive on a world stage when you have a 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:34.160 population which is very very socialist in its inner core 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:37.120 beliefs and how a society should run in terms of 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:41.720 for example, fairness, national health service, etc. So you can't 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:45.920 do a Singapore solution, which is what Liz Trust is 0:03:45.960 --> 0:03:48.360 trying to do, but you do need to do a 0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:51.920 solution which enables the country to be much much more competitive. 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:54.840 Guy, what do you take issue with now? So first, 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:57.400 you don't think the UK now needs an imfbilout. 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:00.560 No, I think we're in a much more stablesition now 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:03.760 that we were when as trust was there, much more stable. 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:06.760 I think we're almost in sort of a situation with 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:11.360 sort of geriatric decline. I look at the UK and 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:15.800 see that two thousand and thirty Poland will be wealthier 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:18.039 than we are. You know, that's sort of predicted, and 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:21.080 I think that will happen. Twenty and forty will probably 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:23.640 be the poor man in Europe if we go in 0:04:23.680 --> 0:04:26.160 the way we're going at the moment, all you can 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:29.120 really see is is Britain just becoming poorer and poor 0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:32.360 on a relative basis to the rest of Europe. And 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:35.560 that's very sad because we've had fifty years of the 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:41.480 UK really competing and becoming much better economically than Europe. 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:44.359 So it's sort of actually, I say forty years, so 0:04:44.360 --> 0:04:48.840 it's sort of reversal of what the that right generation, 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:53.120 which is my generation, really experienced. We're very much back 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:54.320 to the seventies at the moment. 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:58.560 And you called it geriatric decline and that's you know, 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:00.600 I guess the thing about geriatricric and is it's kind 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:02.599 of irreversible, isn't it. I mean, do you see any 0:05:02.680 --> 0:05:05.600 chance of putting us out of this, out of the situation? 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:08.479 And you mentioned Liz Trust's policies, and you know, we 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:10.760 hear this a lot from people on the on the 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:12.960 on the right side of politics or on CONSERTI party 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:16.680 saying that, you know, she diagnosed the right problem, but 0:05:16.720 --> 0:05:19.200 the conundrum was the markets didn't like the solution. So 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:21.359 was there anything else or is there anything else that 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:24.800 she's soon at now in Downing Street can do to 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:28.520 turbocharge the economy and pull us out of that geriatric decline. 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:31.799 Yes, And I'm actually probably on the lift side of politics, 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:34.440 right on the right, but I think I'm honest enough 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:36.000 to say that, you know, if you look listen to Corbyn, 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:39.640 Corbyn has some really some good ideas. Yes, some terrible 0:05:39.680 --> 0:05:42.400 ideas as well, but we had some good ones. And 0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:44.680 I think probably I'm much as a businessman and more 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:49.039 of a prognosis than a politician. And therefore I sort 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:50.680 of think you have to look at and say what 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:54.680 is the problem. And the first issue we've got is 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:56.920 we left Europe and that means we're competing on the 0:05:56.920 --> 0:05:59.559 world stage. How do we get ourselves in the position 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:01.520 where we can compete on the world stage and what 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:07.080 does that mean? I think rule of law consistency is 0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:10.680 really important, and the UK was used to be seen 0:06:10.680 --> 0:06:13.599 in a very consistent place with a very strong rule 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:16.760 of law. I think a lot of the battles over 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:22.520 Brexit exposed that the government was willing to change and 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:26.320 do things which they felt within their best interests, regardless 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:29.440 of what the law was saying. So I think that's 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:30.960 the first thing we need to do to sort of 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:37.200 give people confidence. There's been enormous amounts of change for 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:42.200 political reasons over the last seven years, obviously stemming to 0:06:42.240 --> 0:06:45.159 some extent from the Brexit battle to the Conservative Party, 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:48.599 and that for an investor is very very concerning and 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:52.520 very very difficult to deal with. So get some stability, 0:06:52.600 --> 0:06:55.359 and I think Sunak actually is somebody who's probably pretty 0:06:55.360 --> 0:06:58.400 good at that. And if you like, that's sort of 0:06:58.440 --> 0:07:02.960 the housekeeping war stuff. We then need some exciting stuff. 0:07:03.000 --> 0:07:06.080 And I think the exciting stuff would be actually to say, 0:07:06.120 --> 0:07:10.120 look what out of you we can actually now take 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:14.640 some radical approach to some of our rules, and I 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:18.680 would start with the labor. Labor laws. Employment laws in 0:07:18.720 --> 0:07:24.800 the UK are extraordinarily complex, very litigious and very very difficulties. 0:07:24.840 --> 0:07:26.920 Aren't they a lot looser than Germany and France? They 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:29.200 aren't they going? I mean, I think compared to many. 0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:32.000 You know, they're not. Actually they're absolutely not. It's a 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:35.440 great myth. You know, I have businesses in Germany, our businesses, 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:38.480 and Italy. I have businesses right across the Nordics. The 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:42.360 UK is a nightmare in comparison with those other countries, 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:44.080 an absolute nightmare. 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:46.720 I'm a little bit confused. So you want the UK 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:49.600 closer to the EU, but you also want the UK 0:07:49.720 --> 0:07:52.280 to have their own rules and break away completely from 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:54.480 the U, like Singapore and theems that you can have both. 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:57.320 Well, no, I don't think you can have both. But 0:07:57.360 --> 0:07:59.880 I don't think your Pe and you. There isn't a 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:03.600 politician out there on any political party who was saying 0:08:03.880 --> 0:08:07.240 let's get back into Europe or even let's have a 0:08:07.280 --> 0:08:10.280 single market financially. None of them are saying that there 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:13.360 was a vote. One third of the population voted in favor. 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:17.600 I mean, I'm sorry this whole argument about democracy is, 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:20.600 you know, it's like saying a third of the British 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:24.440 people voted to leave Brexit, therefore what we said then 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:28.640 is time stamped forever. I hate to say it, you know, 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:31.640 but Hitler got a bigger vote in Germany than Brexit 0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:35.120 got in the UK. So I think using democracy in 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:38.520 this way is a little bit. I think it's insulting 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:42.400 to what democracy is about. Democracy is about representing everyone 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:44.680 now and actually the majority of people did not vote 0:08:44.720 --> 0:08:48.960 for Brexit. Is it is a small not even a majority, 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:50.880 it's a small minority voting for Brexit. 0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:54.760 Do you think that should be a political party who 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:58.199 comes out more pro Europe? I mean, should get starmer. 0:08:58.400 --> 0:09:00.320 Some of the polls now are saying the major ority 0:09:00.360 --> 0:09:03.120 of people regret Brexit in the UK, and yet there's 0:09:03.120 --> 0:09:05.920 no politician in a leading party who's going to maybe 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:08.920 apart from the SMP who are on a national level, 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:10.439 who will take that position. 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:12.720 Now, I have no question in my mind the Labor 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:15.320 Party should should be supporting going back in or would 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:21.160 least negotiating a single market solution. And there's nothing in 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:24.600 the European labor laws or policies which the Labor Party 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:26.280 would have a problem with. 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:28.760 Would you vote Labor in that case? Guy? Because you've 0:09:28.760 --> 0:09:30.920 been a Tory donor and supporter, would you would you 0:09:31.080 --> 0:09:33.360 would you switch to Labor if they came out as 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:38.559 a pro European, pro EU policy. 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:41.600 Well, I've always said that if I had voted at 0:09:41.600 --> 0:09:45.880 the election with Corburn, I would have voted for Corburn, 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:50.280 not because I necessarily politically support Corlan because I think 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:54.280 he was the the least bad alternatment at the time, 0:09:54.320 --> 0:09:55.960 because I don't think he would have ended up with 0:09:55.960 --> 0:09:57.760 the Brexit we ended up with. I think we'd end 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:01.280 up with much softer Brexit. Would I be in favor 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:03.640 of Labor over the Conservatives if they were in favor 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:06.760 of Europe, Yes, definitely. I mean, frankly, at the moment, 0:10:07.320 --> 0:10:09.440 I think we've only got we've got two choices. We've 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:14.839 got a choice of dismantling a lot of what has 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:19.720 the political parties have spent thirty years putting in place 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:22.600 so that we can be competitive on a world stage, 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:24.199 or we need to go back into Europe. 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:26.880 Would you vote for Labor today or even become a 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:27.559 Labor downer? 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:31.680 Now? I left the UK some years ago and I 0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:34.959 think for me to go to the UK election probably 0:10:34.960 --> 0:10:43.560 be inappropriate, So I wouldn't would I support them vocally absolutely, And. 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:47.000 That's because you think kir Starmer and Rachel Reeves would 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.960 do a better job. I mean, putting the Europe question aside. 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:52.600 We've seen Starma and Reeves really do a lot of 0:10:52.640 --> 0:10:56.120 outreach to the City of London to business and try 0:10:56.160 --> 0:11:00.000 to convince everybody that they would be better custodentcy, the economy, 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:02.520 but also you know, thinking about the City of London 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:05.280 now maybe reversing some of the decline we've seen in 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:07.640 terms of business there. Do you think they have got 0:11:07.640 --> 0:11:08.760 the right proposals? 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:13.360 I think they're probably marginally better than where the Conservative 0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:17.600 Party is. Do I think where they are today we 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:21.800 make a radical difference. Not really. On the other hand, 0:11:21.880 --> 0:11:25.360 to be fair, you never really know what politicians are 0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:28.600 going to do until they're in power. As you say, 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:32.200 they have spoken a good game. I think you know, 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:37.080 one area where I think they are right is with 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:40.600 regard to planning laws. But again that sort of follows 0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:42.680 my theme, which is if we want the UK to 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:46.480 succeed outside of Europe, we have to reduce a lot 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:49.880 of the bureaucracy that exists in the country, and planning 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:54.320 is a big area regulation. You start to dismantle that 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:57.240 and you can get the economy moving pretty quickly. 0:11:57.920 --> 0:12:00.000 It's not too late. The government can still do that. 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.120 Do you just see them as distracted or just not 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:05.560 wanting to help out the city of London. 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:10.199 I think the Conservative Party is distracted. For the Conservative 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:13.320 Party to be able to rule properly, it has somehow 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:20.160 got to move on from this internal fight over Brexit 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:23.640 and over Europe. And I think that means two things. 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:27.640 Those who supported Brexit have to admit it hasn't worked 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:30.320 out the way they meant it to and they failed 0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:33.280 to deliver what they said they would liver. And those 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:36.360 who are remainers have to say, fine, you know we 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:39.800 are out of Europe. Now we have to think about 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:41.679 how do we get the country to move forward out 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:45.280 of Europe. I think the Conservative Party losing the next election, 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:48.240 which is actually certain, the questions how much they lose 0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:50.880 it by, I think would be a good wake up 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:54.240 call for them. You know, I think they need to lose, 0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:57.520 spend a few years in the wilderness and rethink the agenda, 0:12:57.520 --> 0:13:00.960 because at the moment it's too dominated frankly by a 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:03.160 battle which was fought back in the seventies. 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:06.679 So assuming Keir Starmer wins and the election will have 0:13:06.720 --> 0:13:08.520 to come at some point next year, we have Rachel 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:11.400 Reeves as the chancellor. We talk a lot on this 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:13.959 podcast about the future of the City of London specifically, 0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:16.040 and we've seen, you know, the data is kind of 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:17.520 starting to come in, isn't it in terms of the 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:21.160 kind of the slow puncture it's sometimes called of jobs 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:26.120 and capital and trading out of the City of London. 0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:30.520 How does it look from your perspective? Is that leaking 0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:34.199 of business real? And what is the future hold? Is that? 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:37.079 Is the City of London in a kind of terminal tailspin. 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:40.840 Yeah, it's it's unfortunate, it's very real. And I think 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:44.880 the problem that the politicians had probably the British public 0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:47.760 to a certain extmpent that's largely the politicians fault because 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:50.000 they haven't told them is the City of London is 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:54.080 vastly more than just financial institutions. It's also a county, firms, 0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:57.640 consultancy firms, advertising agencies, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. 0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:04.480 And once you start to lose that center there's a 0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:07.400 massive businesses that will move apart. So even if you 0:14:07.440 --> 0:14:12.120 take for example, architects, you know, I would have used 0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:16.000 a London based architectural firm for some some of the 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:20.120 architectural work I'm doing in other countries in Europe. Now 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:23.160 out of Brexit, I'm not going to I'll use Italian 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:26.760 architects and Swedish architects, and that's a chunk of money 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:28.600 which will go to Europe and won't go to the UK. 0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:32.120 Law firms. I'm using European law firms because frankly, I 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:35.239 don't trust what will happen if I have a contract 0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:37.680 which I want to use in Italy which is under 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.120 English law. I'm not convinced that Italian judge will look 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:43.360 very favorably on that. So I'm using Italian law out 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:46.000 and English law to do do contracts in terms of 0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:48.360 where one's set up and one has one's holding company, 0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:50.600 you know, frankly, I feel I've got to have a 0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:53.480 European country for that holding company, and I think that's 0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:57.760 pretty typicult. So it's a slow puncher, but it's it's 0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:00.360 going to lead to a blowout at some point, and 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:03.400 the only way you can change that is some free 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:09.120 movement of business and people, and no political parties putting 0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:12.520 that forward at the moment. So I think without that change, 0:15:13.280 --> 0:15:15.080 we have to accept that the city of London will 0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:17.920 become less and less important. The only reason for the 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:22.120 city of London to be beneficial to Europe in importance 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:25.040 is if it's a global hub and you can benefit 0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:28.400 from it. Outside of Europe, they don't benefit from it, 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:32.080 so they've got no real interest in London succeeding. In fact, 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:35.200 they've got every interest in London not succeeding. So if 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.440 you're sitting in Amsterdam, you want to have some of 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:40.360 the business that existed in London. If you're sitting in Milan, 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:44.440 you want to have the consultancy, the architecture, some of 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:47.720 that business. And so pretty well, you know, if I'm 0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:50.920 sitting in any European city, I'm just looking at the moment, 0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:52.960 say how much of that business can I get from London? 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:57.480 So that puncher will get worse. And as soon as 0:15:57.480 --> 0:15:59.560 it's feeling of weakness, and I think we're getting pretty 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:02.520 close to that tipping point, you'll find people start moving 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:03.120 very vaguanate. 0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:05.520 Okay, how much of that activity can actually be lost? 0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:07.280 I mean a lot of people are still emphasizing the 0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:10.480 breath and the depth of London capabilities, and you know, 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.000 I wonder whether you're just being too pessimistic. There's still 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:14.800 the rule of law, people still speak English, you have 0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:16.000 a great schooling system. 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:21.040 I might question the schooling systems. I'm not sure. Anyway, 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:25.160 we won't get into the data about English education. The 0:16:25.240 --> 0:16:28.160 rule of law in England has been questioned and continues 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:31.360 to be questioned. We saw that the British government from 0:16:31.640 --> 0:16:34.280 you know, twenty sixteen onwards has been willing to do 0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:37.960 things which are right on the edge of law. And 0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:40.800 some people would say, and I don't think with an 0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:44.480 extreme exaggeration that actually the law in the UK is 0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:46.680 not what it used to be. And if you go 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:50.040 and want to do law with some consistency, you might 0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:55.000 choose to do Sweedisch law speaking English. You know, most 0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:58.840 senior people in Europe speak English. And you talk about 0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:02.080 the breath. The problem with breadth rule is the second 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:05.119 that breaks down, then what do you have? And people 0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:08.480 are leaving, very very top people are leaving, and they're 0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:11.320 leaving increasingly, and it's more and more expensive to get 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:14.119 them here as well. You know what I have to 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:16.040 pay to take a European to come to the UK. 0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:19.080 Now is a premium, whereas it used to be a discount. 0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:21.120 It used to be I want to come and work 0:17:21.119 --> 0:17:23.760 in London. Now I want a premium. And you know 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:27.679 it's the same as you're not going to get And 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:29.120 I know it's a bit of a joke, but you're 0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:31.320 not going to get your Polish plumbers back when they 0:17:31.320 --> 0:17:33.760 can earn more money in Poland and they feel they've 0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:36.359 got a better lifestyle. You're not going to get your 0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:38.720 French bankers back when they think they can have a 0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:40.199 better time in Paris. 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:42.600 You mentioned Paris. We've talked about it a lot in 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:45.399 this podcast. Is that the new financial coupital of the 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:48.480 European Union? I mean, it seems like that's the place 0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:51.600 where the most jobs are being added. Where they seems, 0:17:51.680 --> 0:17:53.560 you know, the stock market has become the biggest by 0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:56.679 market value. Is that where the investment is flowing. 0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:00.479 It's funny because everybody does talk about Paris but actually 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:04.879 see a broader business, not just a financial law. And 0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:08.280 that's why I mentioned Milan, and I mentioned Lisbon, and 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:11.639 i'd mentioned Frankfurt, and i mentioned Amsterdam, and I'd actually 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:14.159 mentioned Stockholm. I think the city of London is a 0:18:14.160 --> 0:18:17.520 lot more than just financial institutions, and you're seeing some 0:18:17.560 --> 0:18:20.879 of those move, you know, all across, all across Europe, 0:18:21.760 --> 0:18:25.280 not just a Paris is Paris the most aggressive. Yes, 0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:28.800 is there a risk that the French decide that they 0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:31.520 really want to wipe London out and say, fine, all 0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:33.520 business contracts in the Europe have to be done under 0:18:33.560 --> 0:18:35.920 European law or the local European law, or they try 0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:40.480 and introduce a European business law. I think that's that's 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:43.920 a real risk. I mean, the French are without any 0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:51.760 question more anti the UK than other countries, and that's historically. 0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:54.199 I mean, it goes back years and years. I remember 0:18:54.240 --> 0:18:57.919 once speaking to a French prime minister about doing business 0:18:57.920 --> 0:18:59.840 in Trance and he was very blunly to go, I'm 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:01.960 not going to say this publicly, but you know, we 0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:05.320 spit in your seep and he said, just don't do 0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:08.200 business in France. You need to understand we hate you. 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:11.320 We hate you since Joan of Arc and you burnt 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:13.840 up our votes in the Second World War. I mean, 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:16.680 it was really venomous. And so I've always worked in 0:19:16.680 --> 0:19:19.240 the principle that the French don't really like us. The good 0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:19.679 news was. 0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:22.760 Really maybe not all French guys hate you gay. 0:19:22.720 --> 0:19:24.840 Well, not all French, but you know, but I think 0:19:24.880 --> 0:19:27.120 from a from a political point of view, they don't. 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:30.560 You know. An ex English foreign farmist said, you know 0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:34.199 that the guidance that he was always given by his 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:37.119 civil service was when looking at doing any form of 0:19:37.160 --> 0:19:40.400 negotiation in Europe regard to the EU, he was told, 0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:43.240 just take the opposite position to the French. You can't 0:19:43.240 --> 0:19:46.480 go wrong. And so I think, I hate to say it, 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:50.080 but from a political class point of view, the French 0:19:50.119 --> 0:19:53.199 and the English have always had this battle and I 0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:55.639 don't think it. I don't think it's going to go away. 0:19:55.920 --> 0:19:58.000 The great thing about the EU was we had to 0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:01.520 work together with each other. I mean, it's amazing the 0:20:01.600 --> 0:20:04.720 Channel tunnel ended up ended up actually connecting in the middle. 0:20:05.000 --> 0:20:07.400 I've always found that that really quite extortedly. 0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:11.680 Maybe we do also speak to former presidents who actually 0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:16.040 love Britain. Of course, a bit of healthy competition, they 0:20:16.040 --> 0:20:21.080 would get business, would they? What the French not being 0:20:21.080 --> 0:20:24.199 more polite than the Bridge? Are they more than the 0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:25.880 Bridge army? 0:20:26.040 --> 0:20:27.400 The French are so charming. 0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:30.879 I no one's ever said that. On the podcast Before. 0:20:31.640 --> 0:20:34.119 The Bridge, we're just so ghost. We just know we 0:20:34.160 --> 0:20:36.680 don't look good. We don't know how to carry things off. 0:20:36.680 --> 0:20:38.840 The French can make a movie which lasts two hours 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:41.680 and nothing happens and everybody thinks it's wonderful. 0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:44.640 Yeah, it seems so critical of the UK. You're also 0:20:44.880 --> 0:20:47.480 embroiled in a legal case with the UK government. Is 0:20:47.560 --> 0:20:50.040 there anything that politicians can do to win you over? 0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:52.760 Well, let me just say I think the British people 0:20:52.760 --> 0:20:56.399 in the British countryside is amazing, and I think the 0:20:56.440 --> 0:20:58.200 food and Britain, regardless of what the rest of the 0:20:58.200 --> 0:21:01.639 world says, is spectacular. So you know, I loved Writtain 0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:04.159 as a place and I love the people. I just 0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:06.160 have a problem with what the politicians have done over 0:21:06.160 --> 0:21:08.480 the last twenty years. I mean, you know, it's when 0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:11.600 I first went to the business I was told three rules. 0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:14.600 They're called shanks because the guy told me, you know, 0:21:14.720 --> 0:21:18.480 what goes up will come down, what goes down won't 0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:21.119 necessarily come back up. And the politicians at the end 0:21:21.119 --> 0:21:23.280 of the day were put all up. And I still 0:21:23.400 --> 0:21:25.880 basically think those are pretty good free things to remember. 0:21:26.520 --> 0:21:29.400 I think that UK was doing absolutely beautifully up until 0:21:29.440 --> 0:21:32.359