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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us prow

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game so

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Speaker 1: smoothe so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 2: Six sing just glorious extrocution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shut with that shop of mind?

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Speaker 1: But buddy, and that's why you.

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Speaker 2: See nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picture them up.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The wall. It's left too.

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Speaker 3: The wide eyed drill pibus how old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, Welcome back to Wondergal, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 4: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Hebuff. This

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Speaker 4: is part two of our World Cup group betting preview.

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Speaker 4: We'll be going through groups E, FG and H and

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Speaker 4: joining me for this adventure as always will be my

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Speaker 4: co hosts friends colleagues BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo. But

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Speaker 4: before I bring them in, a reminder that Wonder Goal

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Speaker 4: is presented by Bet three six five, the world's favorite

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Speaker 4: sportsbook brand. Sign Up with promo code Action to get

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Speaker 4: BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer in New

25
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Speaker 4: Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on any game, get

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Speaker 4: two hundred free. Groupie Spain odds on to win it

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Speaker 4: minus one, twenty, Germany plus one. Ten behind them Japan,

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Speaker 4: the Blue Samurai fourteen to one, and.

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Speaker 1: The Costa Rica.

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Speaker 4: They're the biggest underdog in any group. They're fifty to

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Speaker 4: one to win it.

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Speaker 1: Not gonna happen. No, it's not gonna happen.

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Speaker 4: BJ hates he just he doesn't like good he doesn't

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Speaker 4: like bad teams.

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Speaker 1: It's very straight. I don't like teams that cost me

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Speaker 1: a ton of money.

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Speaker 2: I do want to set this up.

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Speaker 4: So if you listen to part one of the preview,

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Speaker 4: I went over this, I'm gonna do it real quickly again.

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Speaker 4: Last World Cup group stage incredibly chalky. But the one

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Speaker 4: before that, Spain, Italy, England, Portugal all knocked out in

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Speaker 4: the group stage. Germany finished last, England finished last in

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Speaker 4: the group in twenty fourteen. Stuff happens, weird stuff happens

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Speaker 4: at these tournaments. Teams just don't shell. We're in Qatar.

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Speaker 4: Maybe teams don't take to it. Well, who knows. That

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Speaker 4: said that out of the way, I want to start

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Speaker 4: with Anthony. All three of us kind of like a

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Speaker 4: team in this group that will be backing and you're

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Speaker 4: gonna be driving the bus.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like Japan's fun man, Like they're good. You know,

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Speaker 2: we're doing team by team previews for this World Cup

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Speaker 2: and they'll be up probably by the time you've listened

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Speaker 2: to this podcast, if not right after. And I wrote

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Speaker 2: about Japan and why I really like this team, Like

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Speaker 2: they are excellent out of possession. If you watched Japan

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Speaker 2: play the US men's national team and completely play them

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Speaker 2: off the park, then you know why there's so much

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Speaker 2: to like about this Japan team. And it really starts

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Speaker 2: in the midfield with a player on a team we

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Speaker 2: don't like as a We're not big I track Frankfurt people,

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Speaker 2: but Daichi Kamada is awesome and he really kind of

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Speaker 2: sets the tone for their press. He's very good at it,

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Speaker 2: very effective. They you can't really do much with their numbers,

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Speaker 2: right because they play in a very weak confederation. It's

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Speaker 2: relatively easy to qualify, so like, I don't look at

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Speaker 2: their numbers and immediately think that they're some great team,

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Speaker 2: like you know that's really on the level of Germany

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Speaker 2: or Spain. But there is a lot to like number one,

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Speaker 2: made it to their und sixteen in the last World Cup.

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Speaker 2: There is experience, Their age profile is pretty encouraging. They

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Speaker 2: have a good center back pairing to the point where I,

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Speaker 2: you know, I trust them. Minemino left winger. We've seen

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Speaker 2: him at Liverpool. We know that, Yes he didn't quite

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Speaker 2: work out there, but he can be. You know, he

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Speaker 2: was obviously good enough to get Liverpool interests, So there's

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Speaker 2: there's stuff like there. He's having a decent season in

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Speaker 2: France this year. They did lose Koey Takura to injury,

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Speaker 2: which sucks because he was having a breakout season nick Lodbach,

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Speaker 2: so not having him kind of stinks. But again they

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Speaker 2: have people who are used to playing in the Bundesliga,

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Speaker 2: whether it's My Yoshida at center back, so talking here,

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Speaker 2: Tommy Asu from Arsenal, like, there's a lot of talent

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Speaker 2: on this team. The question is how do they compete

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Speaker 2: with the big boys?

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Speaker 4: Right?

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Speaker 2: Can they do enough to pressure Germany in Spain who

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Speaker 2: are dominant possession teams. I think I'd rather have somebody

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Speaker 2: who's going to give it a go and take their

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Speaker 2: chance against Germany and Spain, because what do we know

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Speaker 2: about Germany? And Spain is that both of them have

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Speaker 2: similar flaws. Germany and Spain are dominant possession teams, but

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Speaker 2: when they do lose the ball, they're immediately vulnerable. Germany

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Speaker 2: center backs are a big question mark. Spain is so

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Speaker 2: used to having the ball, they're not great without the ball,

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Speaker 2: so you can hit them quick in transition and get

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Speaker 2: at and I think that's the two flaws of those

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Speaker 2: two teams. And I think Japan is a team they

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Speaker 2: were very good at win the ball within ten seconds,

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Speaker 2: we're in your goal. And if they can pull that

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Speaker 2: off once or twice, that's the path to them getting

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Speaker 2: out of this. It also is just a path for chaos.

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Speaker 2: I think that Costa Rica's the worst team in the field.

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Speaker 2: So if they just beat Costa Rica, all they need

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Speaker 2: is one fluke result, whether it's they draw Germany and

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Speaker 2: then Germany lose to Spain, or they draw Spain and

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Speaker 2: Spain lose. The German like the team that they can

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Speaker 2: get a point against, draws and then all of a

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Speaker 2: sudden it comes down a goal difference and then it's

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Speaker 2: you know, anything can happen. I mean they advanced on

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Speaker 2: on you know, remember when they got out of the group.

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Speaker 2: It was the Sportsmanship yellow cards, so there's a path here.

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Speaker 2: I don't love their like their path because of course

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Speaker 2: Germany and Spain are very good teams. But we saw

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Speaker 2: Germany at the Euros just last summer, was fifteen minutes

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Speaker 2: from going out and I was holding a seven to

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Speaker 2: one on them not to advance. And Hungary the exact

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Speaker 2: same thing, not quite as talented as Japan, but scored

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Speaker 2: two goals and both came right on the heels of

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Speaker 2: loss of possession for Germany as soon as it was

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Speaker 2: the ball. They're vulnerable, So I think there's a path.

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Speaker 2: I'm taking them a plus four hundred. It's a good

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Speaker 2: long shot, good flyer on a team that I think

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Speaker 2: is underrated and has shown their pressing ability.

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Speaker 4: So Spain plays Costa Rica to start. That means Japan

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Speaker 4: and Germany played, and Japan's seven to one on the

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Speaker 4: money line, I'll be on that in the opening match

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Speaker 4: there plus three seventy five to win the group. I

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Speaker 4: think I would just rather play the money line against

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Speaker 4: Germany at you know, higher odds.

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Speaker 1: I don't hate Japan.

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Speaker 4: To win the group at fourteen to one, just with

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Speaker 4: the way the schedule sets up, because they beat Germany,

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Speaker 4: then you know, all bets are off because in Germany's

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Speaker 4: got to go for it against Spain. I just think

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Speaker 4: it sets up for a little bit more chaos than

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Speaker 4: people will realize when they look at this group. They think, oh,

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Speaker 4: straightforward Spain Germany. Spain's mindus nine hundred two advance. Germany's

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Speaker 4: they minus eight hundred two advance. This is you know,

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Speaker 4: set it and forget it. We'll see both of these

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Speaker 4: two teams in the round of sixteen. I think that

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Speaker 4: is a dangerous game to play, especially because there is

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Speaker 4: a bottom feeder too, So like the group sets up

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Speaker 4: for more chaos I think than people realize. At Japan too, Remember,

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Speaker 4: like so they they got through at the You know,

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Speaker 4: that was a tough one for me because I had

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Speaker 4: a lot of money tied up in Senegal. So seeing

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Speaker 4: Japan get through on sportsmanship points over Senegal was tough.

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Speaker 4: But then they went up to nil on Belgium and

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Speaker 4: then they blew that one, and you know the same

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Speaker 4: kind of situation, right like you can beat Belgium going

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Speaker 4: the other way, I mean.

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Speaker 1: The Blue Samurai.

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Speaker 4: I think, you know it's as a group, we're going

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Speaker 4: to be all over this team over and over and

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Speaker 4: over against Yeah.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna catch. I think almost two goals in both

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Speaker 2: matches against Spain and Germany. I haven't looked well.

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Speaker 4: Not after they beat Germany. That number is gotta crash

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Speaker 4: when they play.

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Speaker 2: Well at that point, they might be through, right yeah,

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Speaker 2: But but reality, like I will be on them in

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Speaker 2: the first match against Costa Rica. I think that that

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Speaker 2: match is actually a little bit trickier then you know,

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Speaker 2: from a matchup point of view we talk about you know,

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Speaker 2: Costa Rica is sitting in their low block just banking

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Speaker 2: on Navas Like of course, I think the talent gap

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Speaker 2: is bigger, like I think there's value on Japan. But

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Speaker 2: then they get to that second match, if they've already

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Speaker 2: won it, you know, how aggressive are they? I don't know,

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Speaker 2: you know, what to look like a team total? Maybe

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Speaker 2: I think that, but I think they're so live in

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Speaker 2: this matchup with the transitions, and their age profile is solid,

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Speaker 2: Like they don't have any like aging stars where you're like,

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Speaker 2: oh I don't love that Fu or how she's on

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Speaker 2: the team striker from Celtic. But they clearly trust their

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Speaker 2: plan and got through qualifying pretty easily and had good

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Speaker 2: online numbers, even though I don't really read much into it.

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Speaker 2: So I like Japan, all.

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Speaker 3: Right, BJ Yeah, I love Japan obviously along with you guys.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know the underlying numbers. It's a plus

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Speaker 3: one point six expect to go to the frenchial per ninety. Now,

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Speaker 3: you can take whatever you want from that. They played

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Speaker 3: a lot of you know, smaller nations around Asia, like

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Speaker 3: it wasn't that difficult. But again, like doing that even

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Speaker 3: against smaller nation is still impressive. And Anthony hit the

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Speaker 3: nail right in the head. Is this team lives in transition.

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Speaker 3: What they actually do a really good job of. You know,

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Speaker 3: they're probably gonna play a center back pairing. You know,

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Speaker 3: Tomy Yasu obviously plays right back left back for Arsenal,

190
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Speaker 3: but he played a lot of center back also Bologna.

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Speaker 3: Like he's very capably. He plays there for the national

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Speaker 3: team as well. Those are two really good ball controlling

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Speaker 3: center backs. And what they do actually do a great

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Speaker 3: job of is they just bait teams into pressing them.

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Speaker 3: And the thing is in that first match against Germany,

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Speaker 3: Germany has a new manager. It's Hansei Flick, who formerly

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Speaker 3: managed Bayern Munich, and the word conservative is not in

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Speaker 3: his vocabulary. Like, they are incredibly aggressive in terms of

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Speaker 3: their attacking and they're pressing, like since Flick took over.

200
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Speaker 3: You know, throughout World Cup qualifying, Germany's averaging over three

201
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Speaker 3: expected goals per match. Now they haven't really played that

202
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Speaker 3: difficult of competition. You know, it's against Armenia, Iceland, Romania

203
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Speaker 3: in North Macedonia, like you know, not exactly Murderer's role,

204
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Speaker 3: but it really led to a lot of bonkers matches

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Speaker 3: in the Nations League as well, like they had a

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Speaker 3: five to two match inst Italy, a three to three

207
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Speaker 3: draw against England, and Anthony Alison mentioned like they're very

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Speaker 3: possession dominant, like they held over sixty percent possession in

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Speaker 3: the matches against England and Italy. So the possession battle

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Speaker 3: against you know, Spain is going to be very interesting.

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Speaker 3: I have no interest in playing Jeermany to get through

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Speaker 3: or Spain to win this group. I think the prices

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Speaker 3: are fairly price more interested in Spain from a long

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Speaker 3: term future perspective. So you can turn into our tournament

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Speaker 3: futures and I'll get into Spain a little bit more detailed.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean Japan has set up perfectly to

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Speaker 3: sit back and just live in transition against two teams

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Speaker 3: like Anti Manchieds. Spain doesn't know what to do without

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Speaker 3: the ball. Germany is way too aggressive in that in

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Speaker 3: terms of their pressing. So the first match against Germany

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Speaker 3: is going to be absolutely bonkers. It's a perfect overmatch. Well,

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Speaker 3: and I really really like this Japanese team to get through,

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Speaker 3: just like you guys, because again the friendly against US.

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Speaker 3: Say that Anthony mentioned, like where did their goals come

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Speaker 3: off of? It was off of high turnovers and they

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Speaker 3: just punished the US on the counter. They can do

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Speaker 3: the exact same thing this both Spain and Germany. So

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Speaker 3: I agree with you guys. I love the Japanese. There's

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Speaker 3: a couple of ways I've been thinking about how I'm

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Speaker 3: going to play Coasta Rican this because I'm gonna be

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Speaker 3: fading them quite heavily because They've cost me a ton

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Speaker 3: of money throughout CONCACAFF qualifying.

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Speaker 2: To make it back.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so they got Kayler Nabas and that's it pretty

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Speaker 3: much for this entire team. They had seventy percent of

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Speaker 3: their roster is playing in the Costa Rican Premira Division.

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Speaker 3: Half their rosters over the age of thirty against the USA,

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Speaker 3: Mexico and Canada, they had about a minus two and

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Speaker 3: a half expected goal differential and they allowed eight goals

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Speaker 3: throughout CONCACAFF qualifying off twenty expected Like this team, like

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Speaker 3: Anthony mentioned, you know, Michael's the hockey guy here, they

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Speaker 3: basically just play penalty kill. Like they just sit back

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Speaker 3: in their two low blocks and then they just throw

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Speaker 3: clearances or long balls up to Joe Campbell and just

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Speaker 3: hope that something happens. And that's really what they're gonna

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Speaker 3: do in this group. Like they're Spain and Germany might

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Speaker 3: hold eighty percent possession against Costa Rica, like maybe more,

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Speaker 3: they're gonna get off more than twenty shots against them.

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Speaker 3: And it's just gonna come down to whether Kayler Navas

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Speaker 3: can really stand in his head. You know, he's thirty five.

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Speaker 3: He hasn't played much for PSG this season, but when

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Speaker 3: he gets in between the posts against Costa Rica, balls

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Speaker 3: just magically seemed to find the post or magically seem

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Speaker 3: to find his gloves. So we'll see. So there's a

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Speaker 3: couple of ways. I'm playing Costa Rica seven to one

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Speaker 3: for the lowest scoring team. I don't even know how

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Speaker 3: they're going to score in this in this group, they're

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Speaker 3: going to put up a big fat zero.

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Speaker 2: You can play they'll score against Spain or Jeremy off stupid.

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Speaker 1: I know it's again, but.

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Speaker 4: All scored the first goal of the World Cup two

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Speaker 4: thousand and six against Germany in Germany, right, Paulo Wanchup.

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Speaker 3: Their minus two hundred finished bottom in this group. Like,

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Speaker 3: that's too, I have a price. I'm not going to

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Speaker 3: pay that. Rather just bet Japan incredibly heavily. When those

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Speaker 3: two play. You can bet them for zero points at

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Speaker 3: two to one. I think there's ye that's still a

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Speaker 3: pretty low of a price, you know, plus two forty

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Speaker 3: for exactly what one point?

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Speaker 1: You know, maybe split a unit on those two.

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Speaker 3: But the reality is I'm probably just gonna be fading

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Speaker 3: Costa Rica in every single match in this tournament because,

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Speaker 3: like Andy said, they are the worst team in this tournament.

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Speaker 3: Their age profile is incredibly old. All their players are

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Speaker 3: playing in the Costa Rican League. Like there's just no

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Speaker 3: talent on the squad whatsoever besides Navas. So I agree

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Speaker 3: with you guys, Japan you get through at four to one,

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Speaker 3: I think is a fantastic price, and just honestly playing

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Speaker 3: Japan in every single match, just kind of doubling down,

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Speaker 3: so you can do one or the other, Like you

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Speaker 3: can just play Japan every single match, or you can

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Speaker 3: play them get through.

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Speaker 1: Just I agree with you, guys. Just love the Blue Samurai.

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Speaker 4: Group f Belgium minus one eighty eight to win it.

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Speaker 4: Croatia runners up in the last World Cup. They're plus

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Speaker 4: two fifty, Morocco ten to one, Canada twelve to one.

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Speaker 4: I like Canada just generally. I think we talked about

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Speaker 4: in the last episode, different cores that have been playing

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Speaker 4: together for a long time, that are pulling in the

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Speaker 4: same direction, that know how to like kind of just

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Speaker 4: play to their strengths. And this this Canadian team not

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Speaker 4: only has some talent right like David's great Afonso Davies, boy,

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Speaker 4: that was scary, thought he was going to miss the

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Speaker 4: World Cup for a second there, but they have some

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Speaker 4: game breakers which should help them.

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Speaker 1: I think.

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Speaker 4: Cause some trouble with against Croatia and Morocco and Belgium

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Speaker 4: is you know Belgium. I think all three of us

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Speaker 4: are down on Belgium's chances. I actually think a bet

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Speaker 4: on them at twenty to one to finish at the

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Speaker 4: foot of the table is my favorite bet here in

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Speaker 4: group F because, like I said, at the top, someone's

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Speaker 4: going to do it. One of the big boys is

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Speaker 4: going to do it. And the other groups, like we

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Speaker 4: talked about how Costa Rica' is a in one. You

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Speaker 4: know you got Iran and Tunisia and Australia and others

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Speaker 4: like Cameroon in the group with Brazil and then Portugal.

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Speaker 4: I think you can make a case for it, but

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Speaker 4: the number much shorter. So I like Belgium twenty to

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Speaker 4: one finish last. I like Canada as a long shot.

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Speaker 4: However you want to play them, It's fine with me.

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Speaker 4: But I think both the two teams at the top here,

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Speaker 4: Belgium because of the way they play going in the

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Speaker 4: wrong direction and Croatia because of their age profile, are vulnerable.

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Speaker 4: So Canada for me or a team that I'll be

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Speaker 4: circling here, and Belgium is a team to fade you

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Speaker 4: two though, like Morocco b jelgy go first.

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Speaker 3: I love Morocco to get through a two to one.

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Speaker 1: Here's the thing about Morocco is if you look at their.

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Speaker 3: Underlying numbers throughout African qualifying and even the afric Up

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Speaker 3: nations like they've been the best in the entire continent.

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Speaker 3: Like they've had a plus one actually differential throughout African qualifying.

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Speaker 3: You know African qualifying what happens to there are a

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Speaker 3: lot of low event type matches. Teams play very, very

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Speaker 3: very defensive, so it's harder to get margin in Africa

326
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Speaker 3: than it is in Asia or some other type of qualification.

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Speaker 3: So getting a high actually differential per ninety and AFCA

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Speaker 3: is actually kind of impressive for Morocco.

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Speaker 1: They have a ton of talent throughout this entire squad.

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Speaker 3: Obviously, the key man is Atro Flakimi, who puts for PSG,

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Speaker 3: one of the best right backs in the world. He's

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Speaker 3: their main man in terms of ball progressing, getting up

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00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:55,320
Speaker 3: the wings. But the bigger thing with Morocco is they've

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Speaker 3: had the best underlying metrics, Like there's since March of

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty one, seventeen straight matches they won.

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Speaker 1: The expected goals battle throughout Africa.

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00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:05,400
Speaker 3: Is two of their best players a Keim Zeke and

338
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Speaker 3: Maserawi who plays for Bayern Munich. They haven't played for

339
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,360
Speaker 3: the last fifteen months for the national team because they

340
00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,280
Speaker 3: had a falling out with the manager.

341
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Speaker 1: Who you know, you can read about him, but essentially.

342
00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,280
Speaker 3: He said some not some nice things about those two guys,

343
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Speaker 3: and they said, well screw this and not playing for

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Speaker 3: the national team. Well, that guy's been fired. They brought

345
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Speaker 3: a new manager in August and he mended the relationship

346
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Speaker 3: with those two guys and he selected them for the friendlies.

347
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Speaker 3: So now they're going to be playing for the national team.

348
00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:32,360
Speaker 3: So two of their best players didn't play when they

349
00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:35,560
Speaker 3: went through this crazy run and now they're only going

350
00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:38,160
Speaker 3: to be better going into this World Cup. So you

351
00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:39,560
Speaker 3: know what you're going to get is a lot of

352
00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,560
Speaker 3: crosses from this team, like in scenario from Savilla is

353
00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:44,680
Speaker 3: very used to that playing under low pataggy like you

354
00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:48,440
Speaker 3: know obviously with the you know, Maserawi and Akmi getting

355
00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:50,240
Speaker 3: up the wings, like they can punish a lot of

356
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Speaker 3: teams in this group. So this is a well drilled

357
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Speaker 3: squad that has great underlying metrics, that can play a

358
00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 3: really good system that I think is very very live

359
00:15:58,240 --> 00:15:59,600
Speaker 3: to get through in this group. And like you mentioned

360
00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:03,200
Speaker 3: with Belgium, like the Golden Generations over, what does Belgium

361
00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,760
Speaker 3: have that gets you really excited besides Kevin de Bruyne,

362
00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,160
Speaker 3: Like they're gonna play Eden Hazzard who hasn't really played

363
00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:10,680
Speaker 3: that much for Real Madrid. It's completely cooked. Romola Kaku,

364
00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:12,560
Speaker 3: who knows if he's even gonna play in this World Cup.

365
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:14,600
Speaker 3: He's been out forever. He had a setback where he's

366
00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,400
Speaker 3: with his thigh injuries, so and honestly, he hasn't looked

367
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:19,800
Speaker 3: good since he made the move to Chelsea and even

368
00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:23,200
Speaker 3: back to Enter. And then in defense, like are they

369
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:27,440
Speaker 3: really gonna roll with fir Tongan, Denier and alde Wilde again?

370
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:31,160
Speaker 3: Like this is a very aging again again.

371
00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,520
Speaker 2: Like this is the year Belgium finally gets their trip?

372
00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:35,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.

373
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:37,760
Speaker 3: And then you know they're gonna play a defensive midfield

374
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,720
Speaker 3: pairing of Tieleaman's and Axl Vietzel. You know, Tielemens is

375
00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 3: obviously a very good in terms of ball progression, but

376
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,240
Speaker 3: he doesn't really do that great defensive work for Lester,

377
00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:47,680
Speaker 3: so they'd be relying a lot of their you know,

378
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:49,960
Speaker 3: in terms of transition on Whetzel, who's thirty three.

379
00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:51,200
Speaker 1: That's concerning.

380
00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:53,520
Speaker 3: So there's just like not a lot of talent with

381
00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,880
Speaker 3: this Belgium squad and they're very they're probably the most vulnerable,

382
00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,680
Speaker 3: I would say of the favorites in this tournament and

383
00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,800
Speaker 3: one that I know a lot of people will be

384
00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,280
Speaker 3: circling in that to get upset in that first round.

385
00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:07,320
Speaker 3: And even though you saw with Belgium as well as

386
00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,719
Speaker 3: the euros is, like, yes, they won their group that

387
00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:13,240
Speaker 3: included Denmark, even though the match gets Denmark, they got.

388
00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,480
Speaker 1: Completely luckbox, completely luck box.

389
00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:17,439
Speaker 3: But what happened when they got to the round of

390
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,119
Speaker 3: sixteen they had to play Portugal. They scored early and

391
00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,200
Speaker 3: then they had to sit in a low defensive block

392
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:23,840
Speaker 3: for pretty much the entire match, and they looked like

393
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:25,399
Speaker 3: they had no idea what they were doing, and they

394
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:26,160
Speaker 3: got very.

395
00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:26,879
Speaker 2: Terrible because Portugal.

396
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:28,840
Speaker 3: And it wasn't terrible, but they got very very more

397
00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:32,399
Speaker 3: about Portugal than Belgium, right, more about Portugal's finishing, But

398
00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:34,679
Speaker 3: it highlights a bigger point that like once they get

399
00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,200
Speaker 3: into the round of sixteen, they have to play teams

400
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 3: that are more possession dominant, Like it's kind of concerning.

401
00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,600
Speaker 3: So unless Kevin de Bruyne can like basically will them

402
00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:44,520
Speaker 3: on his back throughout this tournament, like Belgium's, Belgium's going

403
00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:45,040
Speaker 3: out early.

404
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,360
Speaker 1: So I have no interest to playing Belgium as a favorite.

405
00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:48,200
Speaker 1: The other two teams.

406
00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,679
Speaker 3: Canada, I mean Alfonda Davis is going to play, Like

407
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:52,600
Speaker 3: how healthy is he going to be? Like, Canada's very

408
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,080
Speaker 3: very direct, Like they're very direct, countertech and maybe a

409
00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:56,679
Speaker 3: lot of speed like Jonathan David's in the form of

410
00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,480
Speaker 3: his life, so like they have a lot of Yeah,

411
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:01,960
Speaker 3: and I mean ten expected goals throughout Europe. That's the

412
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,520
Speaker 3: third best in Europe's Big five leagues, so that's kind

413
00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:08,000
Speaker 3: of impressive. And then Croatia, I mean they're just old, honestly,

414
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,000
Speaker 3: like the Golden generation for Creasi's over. They have a

415
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 3: great midfield like that can really dominate games. Besides the midfield,

416
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 3: there's really just not much talent, Like they're just relying

417
00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,800
Speaker 3: on Kramerick as a false nine up top, which is

418
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 3: just not going toally get it done. Goalkeepers a big

419
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,320
Speaker 3: time concern. You know, he had a minus two actually

420
00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:24,960
Speaker 3: post shot actually plus mis.

421
00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:25,359
Speaker 1: At the Euros.

422
00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,000
Speaker 3: He was very very bad lover ins thirty three and

423
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,119
Speaker 3: playing in Russia. Like there's just not a lot to

424
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 3: like about this Croatian team in terms of, you know,

425
00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,200
Speaker 3: mimicking that magical run in the twenty eighteen World Cup.

426
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:40,240
Speaker 3: So I love Morocco to get through in this group, Like,

427
00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:44,160
Speaker 3: I think they have more talent honestly than Canada, and

428
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,160
Speaker 3: I think they can give Croatia a big time run.

429
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,480
Speaker 1: And then obviously Belgium is very very vulnerable as a favorite.

430
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,040
Speaker 3: So Morocco plus two hundred to get through in this

431
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,520
Speaker 3: group is one of my favorite bets throughout the.

432
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 1: Entire World Cup.

433
00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,000
Speaker 2: I think is going to be so fun.

434
00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be.

435
00:18:57,840 --> 00:18:59,159
Speaker 4: That's just about to say, this is a group that

436
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:01,639
Speaker 4: you know, you you might want to just sprinkle Canada

437
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,840
Speaker 4: and Morocco to advance forty to one as a dual forecast, right, Like.

438
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:06,600
Speaker 2: There's just stole that off my sheet?

439
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 1: Is that your favorite bet?

440
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:08,720
Speaker 4: Here?

441
00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:09,520
Speaker 3: Well?

442
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:10,720
Speaker 2: I got a few things.

443
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,440
Speaker 4: I just before I turn it to Like the thing

444
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:16,680
Speaker 4: about we're talking about these age profiles. Normally I wouldn't

445
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,720
Speaker 4: worry too much about them if this is a normal

446
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,320
Speaker 4: summer World Cup. But all these guys have been playing

447
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 4: you know, club for their.

448
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:28,199
Speaker 3: Close Rose is just coming off August, right, Like it

449
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:31,280
Speaker 3: does matter well more than over thirty seven.

450
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:36,359
Speaker 2: It's a super crammed World Cup in the desert. I

451
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,120
Speaker 2: care more about it like I generally do think because

452
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,440
Speaker 2: here's the thing and this is more philosophical, like bigger

453
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,800
Speaker 2: picture on these international tournaments. The data we have is

454
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:47,080
Speaker 2: so talent dependent, skewed, like how many teams play their

455
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:50,000
Speaker 2: best lineup? How many times? Who do you play? When

456
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,479
Speaker 2: were the matches like the manager's change so often, And

457
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:55,760
Speaker 2: even then the samples are small, like we're talking about

458
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 2: like fifteen matches for ten matches for a lot of

459
00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,639
Speaker 2: these teams. So it is there's more art in this

460
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:02,199
Speaker 2: than there is. You know, you listen to Wonder Goal,

461
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 2: you'll hear me talk about XG all the time, Like

462
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:05,480
Speaker 2: I don't use as much XG when I talk about

463
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 2: international tournaments. And I think age profile is a really

464
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:10,200
Speaker 2: good way to figure out where teams are trending, who

465
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 2: might be in trouble if things go wrong, Where could

466
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 2: they go wrong? And the two teams at the top

467
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 2: of this group on paper are two of the biggest

468
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,199
Speaker 2: teams where you're like the cliff could come here and

469
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:23,160
Speaker 2: we just don't know it yet. And I think for Belgium,

470
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 2: I think BJ mentioned it with Lukaku. Lukaku was in

471
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,399
Speaker 2: great form heading into the Euros last year. That is

472
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 2: no longer the case anymore, Like he had had a

473
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:36,880
Speaker 2: great season at inter Milan. He went into Euros. Him

474
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,440
Speaker 2: and Debryna are off, like that's a scary thought betting

475
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,760
Speaker 2: against those two players. But Lukaku has not been the

476
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 2: same player. He's over, you know, right at thirty Now

477
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 2: bj mentioned the ages of the of the center backs.

478
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:50,880
Speaker 2: Belgium loves to play with the ball, but they don't

479
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:52,679
Speaker 2: have a lot of ball winners. Tilaman is not a

480
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,920
Speaker 2: ball winner. Vitso is old. Their full backs have always

481
00:20:55,960 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 2: been a problem. Castagna is okay Munye really like Thomas

482
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,200
Speaker 2: Mune is gonna, you know, so like there's so many

483
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 2: questions and Hazard has not been productive in any minutes

484
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:10,159
Speaker 2: any club in the last three years, so there's all

485
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 2: kinds of questions. Strese Martens has gone. Now like Belgium

486
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 2: struggled at the last Euros. They got a deflected goal

487
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:19,680
Speaker 2: where Patricio botched for Portugal and then they just sat

488
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,040
Speaker 2: deep and Portugal we'll get to them in a second,

489
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,680
Speaker 2: like they have their problems and couldn't break them down.

490
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 2: Hit the post, had some chances, but a lot of

491
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 2: long range pot shots. Belgium then played Italy got completely

492
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 2: exposed by Italy's counterpress. Belgium couldn't get out of their

493
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 2: own half, would they do? They brought on Jeremy Doku

494
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 2: and just started bombing balls up to him and letting

495
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 2: him run at people, and it worked. But that's not

496
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 2: gonna work here because one, I don't expect him to

497
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 2: play as much. That was like the Plan B emergency,

498
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 2: like We're just going to get it up to Lucacu

499
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,119
Speaker 2: and Doku and let them wreck. I don't think they

500
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 2: can do that this year because Lucacu's out a form

501
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 2: and Doku's really not taking a step forward since that match.

502
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 2: So I love fading Belgium.

503
00:21:59,480 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 1: How do we do?

504
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,440
Speaker 2: I have a couple ideas. The biggest one is Morocco

505
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 2: to win the group is twelve to one. I sprinkled

506
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 2: some there. Morocco to qualify is plus two hundred. That's

507
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 2: gonna be my main bet I Group BJ, but I

508
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 2: will also be placing a small wager on Canada and

509
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 2: Morocco to both go through at forty to one. You

510
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 2: can bet that at bet three six five. The thing

511
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:25,120
Speaker 2: that's interesting about Canada, of all the teams who might

512
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,199
Speaker 2: be best designed to sit deep and counter in the

513
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 2: whole tournament, it might be Canada because they're solid defensively

514
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 2: and they're forward runners with Davies Tejon Buchanan Go Orange

515
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,880
Speaker 2: and Johnathan David Electric, and the midfield has enough ball

516
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,159
Speaker 2: winning that I can trust them and we've seen him

517
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 2: do it in CONCACAF. So do I think they'll probably

518
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 2: be a little bit leakier defensively than they wear in

519
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,439
Speaker 2: conca cap because CONCACAF doesn't have any like attacks that

520
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,920
Speaker 2: really like are super dynamic. Yes, but I think they're

521
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 2: going to be able to hit teams and score and transition,

522
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 2: especially Belgium. And then of course, you know we talked

523
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 2: about Croatia, like everybody on their profile is like over

524
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:04,960
Speaker 2: thirty at this point when you look at their their

525
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 2: profile and like who's going to be the main starters?

526
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 2: Like Modris is ageless, like he does an age, but

527
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,119
Speaker 2: he is thirty seven, and I don't think he's going

528
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 2: to be able to play all the minutes Lavrinn Old

529
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:20,160
Speaker 2: Vita Old Versaco Old Crameridge thirty one, Parisich thirty three.

530
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: Like you're not getting two hundred and seventy minutes from

531
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 2: these players in ten days. So that's the FRED flag.

532
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 2: There's no easy game in this group either where you

533
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 2: can be like, oh, we'll rest them for this game

534
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 2: because you could lose.

535
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, And Croatia, let's be honest, they sucked at the

536
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 3: Euros too. They lost the expecta goles battle every single match.

537
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 3: I understand they were kind of a difficult group, but

538
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 3: like they played Scotland, they played Czech Republic and obviously

539
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 3: the bonkers match against Spain then is where they conceded

540
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 3: five goals. But like they have, they've been great throughout

541
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 3: World Cup qualifying, but they've you know, they've been playing

542
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 3: Slovakia and Slovenia, like they haven't really played the top tier, right.

543
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 2: Talent has changed quickly in international soccer, and this even

544
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 2: goes back to the last group. Like Costa Rica, I

545
00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,639
Speaker 2: had them out of the group and my predictions in

546
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 2: twenty four team when I like made my little bracket

547
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 2: on ESPN, I was like, oh, they had a golden generation.

548
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 2: Everybody got old. They're all over thirty.

549
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:07,199
Speaker 1: Same thing.

550
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 2: It's true for Belgium just about. Belgium has some young talent,

551
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 2: like they'll be okay in the future whatever. But Costa Rica,

552
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 2: you look at Belgium, you look at Croatia, these are

553
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,880
Speaker 2: teams who are not footballing traditional powerhouses. They go through

554
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 2: peaks and valleys, and Belgium and croati are the two

555
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 2: teams that are teetering on the cliff here, and I

556
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 2: think by the next cycle, the next Euros, we're going

557
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 2: to see very different teams for both of them. So

558
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 2: that's when it kind of restarts, and I want to

559
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 2: be there for the end of the cycle to fade, so.

560
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 1: You can book it.

561
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 4: Belgium and Croatia through.

562
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 2: Through nine points, yeah, six points easy. Group G.

563
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 4: Brazil tournament favorites. They are minus two seventy five to

564
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,239
Speaker 4: win Group G. They are four to one to win

565
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 4: the whole tournament. They are playing in a pod with

566
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 4: Switzerland plus four fifty to win the group Serbia six

567
00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 4: to one, Cameroon twenty to one. Switzerland Serbia basically the

568
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 4: same odds too advance. Brazil's minus signed hundred and Cameroon

569
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 4: are plus three fifty to just advance. It's a pretty

570
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 4: uninteresting group for me, just from a betting perspective, and

571
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 4: I don't have much here, I think, yeah, I mean, honestly,

572
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 4: I've got nothing here. This one was pretty straightforward for me.

573
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 4: I think I have a tough time separating Serbia and Switzerland.

574
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 4: So I'll probably just take the bigger number on Serbia

575
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:23,919
Speaker 4: if I had to BJ What about you?

576
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 3: So, I think there's a way to play this group

577
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 3: where we can essentially get good prices on both Switzerland

578
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 3: and Serbia advance to where we come down to that

579
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 3: final match and you have either opportunity to hedge on

580
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 3: Serbia or you can get even Serbia to a bigger number,

581
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 3: because what the reality is is that well, the funny

582
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 3: part is these three teams repaired together at the twenty

583
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 3: eighteen World Cup as well, and Serbia got beat both

584
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 3: times by Switzerland and Brazil. I mean with Brazil, I mean,

585
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 3: what do you say, like they're deserving of being the

586
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 3: tournament favorites. In my opinion, they probably have the most

587
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 3: talent of anybody in this entire World Cup.

588
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 1: They've been the best.

589
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 3: Team throughout in South American qualifying and neymar is honestly

590
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 3: in the form of his life for PSG this and

591
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 3: so I mean, what else do you really say about Brazil,

592
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 3: Like they're also one of these teams that's incredibly possession dominant,

593
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 3: but it's a stranglehold on the ball. So you know,

594
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 3: their first match against Serbia we'll talk about in length,

595
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 3: but there's a wonderful beta like there. But I like

596
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 3: Brazil Switzerland. You know, essentially group forecast first second at

597
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 3: plus one seventy five, because you know Switzerland is going

598
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:25,159
Speaker 3: to be favored over Serbia in the final match, and

599
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 3: with Serbia playing Brazil in that first match and Switzerland

600
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 3: playing camera and being a minus one thirty favorite, you're

601
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 3: gonna get a scenario if everything goes according to plan,

602
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,880
Speaker 3: where Switzerland and Brazil are going to be a top

603
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:39,199
Speaker 3: the group three points and you can get potentially a

604
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:44,439
Speaker 3: pretty big number on Serbia to advance, or essentially in

605
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 3: the final match against Switzerland where they'll be essentially over

606
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 3: plus two hundred. I mean the Swiss team again, another

607
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 3: team that Anthony has me drinking the kool aid because

608
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 3: they're a team much like Denmark that's been playing together

609
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 3: for a really, really long time and knows exactly what

610
00:26:57,680 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 3: they want to do tactically, Like yes, they they tend

611
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 3: to set a little bit deeper and then just look

612
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:01,679
Speaker 3: the counter.

613
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: Granted, Shaka is also.

614
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:05,640
Speaker 3: In the form of his life for Arsenal, He's enjoyed

615
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 3: a little bit more of an attacking role for Arsenal,

616
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 3: he'll have to play a little bit more defensive alongside Frauler.

617
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 3: In their system, Brilian Bolo is a really fun striker.

618
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 3: They have a very solid center back pairing. We don't

619
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 3: know if Jon Summer is going to be healthy enough

620
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 3: for the World Cup yet, but like their.

621
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 1: Their next option.

622
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 3: You know Cabal who is having a great season for Dortmund,

623
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 3: so he's a fine replacement. Like it's a team that's

624
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 3: very very well drilled, can sit back in a four

625
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 3: to four to two low block when they're out of

626
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 3: possession and really frustrate a lot of teams. In Serbia,

627
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 3: it's just like they're just going to cross you to death.

628
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 3: Like basically all they do is they say, okay, we're

629
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 3: going to get the ball moving forward, we'll get it

630
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,879
Speaker 3: out to you know, Felipe Kostich or just on Tatic

631
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 3: and we'll just send crosses into Vlahovic and Mitrovich and

632
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,639
Speaker 3: the you know, they rely on their physicality quite a

633
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:52,479
Speaker 3: bit to overpower a lot of teams.

634
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 1: Like that's how they're very well drilled.

635
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 3: But when they're out of possession, what Serbia likes to

636
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 3: do is like they're very aggressive with their pressing and

637
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 3: they just kind of have no fear, which tends to

638
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:02,439
Speaker 3: a lead to a lot of open matches. That's why

639
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 3: they're matches throughout Worlcup qualifying of average three point one

640
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 3: expected goals. So you know, it's impressive to get through

641
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 3: a Worokup qualifying group over Portugal, who will get to

642
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 3: in a second. But I think there's a good situation

643
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 3: here with how the group sets up, with you know,

644
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 3: Serbia playing Brazil first, Switzerland playing Cameroon first, and then

645
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 3: the final match being Serbia on Switzerland, where you can

646
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,880
Speaker 3: have a wonderful hedge opportunity. So I'm going to play

647
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,360
Speaker 3: Brazil Switzerland first, second, and then look to play back

648
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 3: on Serbia.

649
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 1: To have a nice price before we get to that

650
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: final match.

651
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,360
Speaker 4: Anthony, anything for you here Group G before we wrap

652
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 4: things up with Group BAG.

653
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't decide if I want to hop off

654
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 2: the Switzerland bandwagon or not. Sorry, BJ, I know you

655
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 2: hitched your wagon too. My Swiss boys, we had a

656
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 2: really fun euro We were within a penalty shootout of

657
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 2: the semifinal. We would have beatn Italy, we would have

658
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 2: won the tournament. We were so close, but I'm you know,

659
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 2: Serbia on paper has just a lot more attacking talent

660
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 2: than Switzerland. So I like the defense of Switzerland more

661
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 2: without a doubt. But you kind of look at this

662
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 2: the way that the form table sets, like how informed

663
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 2: Mitrovich's scares me? How good at crossing costages? Lahovich Like

664
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 2: they're perfectly set up for these crosses and they can

665
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 2: kind of just bypass the mid good advantage that I

666
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 2: think Switzerland's going to have in the match with Shaka

667
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 2: and Freuler. That that kind of concerns me. Zacharia as well,

668
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 2: has not been informed much. He has not been playing

669
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 2: much for Chelsea. I love braille En Below.

670
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: We know we love him.

671
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 2: We had him, you know. The first match of the

672
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 2: Euros when he scored against Wales was awesome. He's very

673
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 2: good at kind of helping their attack because their attack

674
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 2: struggles so much with getting the ball into the penalty area.

675
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 2: He just kind of comes short, takes the ball and

676
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 2: then runs with it. You know, we've talked about that before.

677
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,959
Speaker 2: They have the the the guy who led the Euros

678
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 2: and assists with Zuber. But you kind of just look

679
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 2: across the board and you're like, Okay, there's kind of

680
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 2: a limit to how like the ceiling is low for

681
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 2: Switzerland because their attack is just not that good. And

682
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 2: I do see a world where Serbia with its attacking

683
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 2: players because it's not just Vlahovich, but it was just

684
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 2: Flahovich and Mitrovich wasn't in a good form. I was like, uh, like,

685
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 2: how much we really like this team? But now I'm

686
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 2: starting to spin a narrative where like Sergey Milinkovich, Savage Costach,

687
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 2: like Tatich are just such good playmakers compared to what

688
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 2: you're seeing for Switzerland, that match is probably rightly a

689
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 2: toss up. And so I actually have not bet this

690
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 2: anything here. I think I'm gonna end up staying away.

691
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 2: We'll see. I may may come around and change my

692
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 2: mind again and just trust my Swiss boys to get through,

693
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 2: which they always seem to do. They always seem to

694
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 2: get through and then lose in the round of sixteen,

695
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 2: which I'm kind of expecting if whoever gets second in

696
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 2: this group. But Cameroon is interesting. I think there's a

697
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 2: world where if Serbia doesn't come to fruition the way

698
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 2: I think that they could, and Switzerland starts to fall

699
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 2: off the way that I think they could that Cameroon

700
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 2: could surprise some people, Like there is some talent on

701
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 2: this team. I love Onana and goal. They have decent

702
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 2: underline numbers in qualifying, like there are Like I said,

703
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 2: there is talent on this ross overall. You know, in

704
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,719
Speaker 2: general they're they're clearly on paper the fourth team. But

705
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 2: you know, Chappumo thing's been in good form. Zambo and

706
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 2: Giza is kind of the man in midfield, like he's

707
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 2: been one of the best midfielders I'd argue in the world.

708
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 2: The defensive question marks definitely exists for this team, but

709
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 2: the peak ages are solid like everybody. All their best

710
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 2: players are you know, between twenty five and twenty nine

711
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 2: and thirty. So you like that. Toko a comedy has

712
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 2: been good too. So like there's an interesting battle for

713
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 2: second here. I do agree Brazil wins this comfortably, but

714
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 2: the battle for second will be a fun one in

715
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 2: this group. And if you know, the next group goes

716
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 2: a little bit differently, there could be a path I

717
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 2: think for the team to get through depending on who

718
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 2: wins the other group.

719
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 4: Let's talk about that other group's group. H Portugal is

720
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 4: at the top on the oddsboard. There mightus won sixty three.

721
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 1: To win it.

722
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 4: Uruguay two to one, South Korea ten to one, Ghana

723
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 4: sixteen to one. This one sets up beautifully. If you're

724
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 4: a World Cup historian, we remember Uruguay and Ghana have

725
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 4: a fun rivalry because of Luis swas As with the

726
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 4: reverse hand of God against Ghana back in twenty ten.

727
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 4: I think this conversation is going to go down a

728
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 4: pretty similar path. Then it'll branch off. All of us

729
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 4: think that Portugal is a vulnerable favorite at the top

730
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 4: in terms of the group. I actually think Portugal, if

731
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 4: you like them, just investing them to win the tournament

732
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 4: at fourteen to one because you don't want to lay

733
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 4: this money, because I think Uruguay at fifty to one

734
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 4: are my favorite bet for a sleeper in the entire tournament.

735
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 4: On the big board, Federico Valverde is an absolute wonder

736
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 4: kind from Real Madrid.

737
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 2: They got mess of the tournament.

738
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, Darwin Nunez is he should be great, you know,

739
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 4: especially in this kind of environment. Then they got le

740
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 4: Suarez and Kavani who can fill in and be those

741
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 4: life savers off the lifeguards, off the sub bench whoever's

742
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 4: not starting.

743
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 1: I mean, I think there's.

744
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 4: A lot to like here for the South America side.

745
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 1: New manager.

746
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 4: Obviously, Oscar Tabarez was there forever, he's there for fifteen years.

747
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 4: Diego A Lonzo's there now, playing a little bit more

748
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 4: on the front foot than they were. They used to

749
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 4: just be this robust four to four to two with

750
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 4: Goden and whatever his name is in the back, the

751
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 4: triple name guy, and then they would just get the

752
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 4: ball to four lawn Suarez, Kavani, whoever is the striker

753
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 4: at the time. But they're much more talented, kind of

754
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 4: all over the pitch here, and it's a team that

755
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 4: Anthony talks about like peaks and valleys. I think we're

756
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 4: kind of going up in a weird way because you

757
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 4: think like Suarez and Cavani are aging out, but there's

758
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 4: this new class of player that's coming to take their

759
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 4: spots and they're all good. So I like Uruguay fifty

760
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 4: to one win the tournament if you're doing like a

761
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 4: group winner parlay. I think they're a good price to

762
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 4: throw in there at two to one because the Portugal side,

763
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 4: I think it sounds weird to say I like their

764
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 4: long term prospects much more than I do. To win

765
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 4: the group. But that's how I'll be playing this one

766
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 4: BJ anything here.

767
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I agree with you.

768
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 3: I like Uruguay more from the future's perspective, potentially to

769
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 3: win the tournament, to get to the quarters, to get

770
00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 3: to the Semis than I do necessarily to win this group,

771
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 3: because I just don't think the price is really there

772
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 3: on Uruguay Portugal. You know, they obviously have all the

773
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 3: talent in the world, but I mean we saw throughout

774
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,399
Speaker 3: the Eros, right, they got completely dominated by Germany, Like, yes,

775
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 3: they dominated Hungary, like they dominated Belgium. They couldn't really finish,

776
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 3: Like let's be honest, when all those completely cooked.

777
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:17,359
Speaker 1: They're very reliant on him up top.

778
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 3: Diego Jota is out, and it's another team that I

779
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 3: don't really think is that great out of possession, Like

780
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,879
Speaker 3: they just they don't have a lot of ball winning midfielders,

781
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 3: like you know, they obviously have Berna Fernanz, they have

782
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 3: Bernardo Silva. Those are great attacking midfielders, but they they

783
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 3: really going to rely on essentially Ruben Nevis and you know,

784
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 3: Patina and all these guys. Like in terms of midfields,

785
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 3: like I think Uruguay has a better midfield than Portugal

786
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 3: in terms.

787
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 1: Of defensive midfielders.

788
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 3: But the two ways I'm going to be playing this

789
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 3: group is I like self created advance. Obviously it's very

790
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 3: dependent on if Young Men's Sun plays right, because if

791
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 3: he doesn't, then I say, I don't like the beep.

792
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,760
Speaker 3: But they're plus two twenty five to advance, incredibly impressive

793
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 3: throughout Asian qualifying.

794
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: You know, they were the second best team behind Japan.

795
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 3: You know, obviously they didn't really play anybody, but they're

796
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 3: a team much like Japan that is just lives in transition.

797
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 3: They're very, very good at their pressing, they're very good

798
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,480
Speaker 3: at sitting deep and countering a lot of teams, and

799
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:12,319
Speaker 3: you know, midfield is a question mark for them, but

800
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 3: they have They have a really good defender in Napoli's

801
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 3: Minja Kim who's having a breakout season in Syria. Ah Like,

802
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,759
Speaker 3: he's averaging over three tackles plus interceptions per ninety and

803
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 3: he's like a big reason why Napoli has been one

804
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 3: of the best defensive teams in Europe. But the attacking

805
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 3: talent that South Korea possesses with Young Manson to punish

806
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 3: teams on the counter, especially two teams in this group

807
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,399
Speaker 3: like I think they should. They shouldn't be a pick

808
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 3: them against Ghana, like I'll get to Ghana in second.

809
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 3: But this is a team I love to get through.

810
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:42,879
Speaker 3: I mean, hum Min Sun can really carry them again

811
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 3: if he doesn't play. I don't like this bed at

812
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 3: all because they are very, very reliant on him, but

813
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:49,839
Speaker 3: they are a team that's very well drilled to play

814
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 3: out of possession and counter teams. Ghana is a team

815
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 3: I like to finish bottom of this group as minus

816
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 3: one ten. They are maybe the most influx team I

817
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,240
Speaker 3: think coming into this World Cup. Just fired their manager

818
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 3: after the Africaupan Nations after really poor showing. They couldn't

819
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,880
Speaker 3: get out of a group with Morocco, Gabon and Comoros.

820
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 3: They lost three two to Comoros in the final match,

821
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 3: ended up getting him fired. They brought in Otto Adou,

822
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 3: who's been a player for the national team, but he's

823
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 3: not the only experience he's had as a manager was

824
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:21,919
Speaker 3: managing the U Nite teens for Hamburger in Germany and listen.

825
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 3: They somehow got past Nigeria in the African World Cup playoffs,

826
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 3: but they were incredibly lucky to do so.

827
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,279
Speaker 1: Like they created him really zero point six expected goals

828
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 1: over the two legs.

829
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 3: It was just a Thomas Party weird goal from outside

830
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 3: the box and they kind of just held onto it

831
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:37,479
Speaker 3: and that's how they got through. It's real shame because

832
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,320
Speaker 3: Nigeria is one of the powerhouses across Africa.

833
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 1: I mean.

834
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 3: So another thing that really concerns me is that, Okay,

835
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 3: so Ghana really, if overall, didn't really have much talent,

836
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 3: right they have Thomas Party as one of the best

837
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 3: defensive midfielders in the Premier League, and they got a

838
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 3: couple of guys to switch nationalities, Tarik Lampi and Aki

839
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,360
Speaker 3: Williams from Athletic Bilbao, who's been obviously very good in

840
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 3: La Liga. But they haven't really played with the national

841
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 3: team that much. Like they played two matches Africa Cup

842
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:07,280
Speaker 3: of Nations qualification in June. They drew with the Central

843
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 3: Africa Republic one to one. Like that team is I

844
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 3: have ranked one hundred and seventy seventh in the world. Like,

845
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,320
Speaker 3: It's just a it was a very weird performance and

846
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,919
Speaker 3: the xtually suggests that result was actually right. So I'm

847
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 3: concerned about Ghana from just a tackle perspective of like

848
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,440
Speaker 3: they don't seem to really have an identity right now

849
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 3: or really what they want to do. They obviously have,

850
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,279
Speaker 3: you know, it's not like they don't have talent, like

851
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,839
Speaker 3: you know, Djoku and Armati as a capable center back

852
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:34,919
Speaker 3: pairing in Aki Williams, like already mentioned, is very good.

853
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 1: But they played a friendly against Brazil.

854
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 3: They got beat very soundly three nothing like, they really

855
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 3: didn't look like they knew what they really wanted to do.

856
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:44,800
Speaker 1: They do come out and press high, like they have pace,

857
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 1: but at least.

858
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,719
Speaker 3: A lot of open space and behind something that's South

859
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 3: Korea and obviously Uruguay and Portugal can really take advantage of.

860
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 3: So I really think that this Ghana team is just

861
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 3: not that great. I think they're going to lose to

862
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 3: South Korea. So I think minus one ten is a

863
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:00,879
Speaker 3: fantastic price for them to finished bottom of this group

864
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 3: and then obviously South Korea to advance at plus two

865
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 3: twenty five.

866
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 4: All right, Anthony, what about you fregribeach Uruguay, Uruguay, Uruguay.

867
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 1: That's right.

868
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 2: You know, I don't look at qualifying numbers that much,

869
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 2: like I said that earlier, and I'm kind of like, uh,

870
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 2: you know, we'll see Uruguay from an expected goals point

871
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 2: of view, had really encouraging underline numbers this in the

872
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 2: in the cycle, you know, they had the third best

873
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 2: expected goals for They were not that far behind Argentina

874
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 2: to the point where they just didn't finish, so that

875
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 2: their qualification was a little bit dicier than it needed

876
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 2: to be. They went through an incredibly weird variant spell

877
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:41,720
Speaker 2: where every chance was missed and I just don't expect

878
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 2: that to continue. And I think they're underrated. You mentioned

879
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 2: the defenders. Godin is still there. He's like the Pepe,

880
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:49,879
Speaker 2: you know, he never dies, never retires, He's just there

881
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 2: and always solid. And you can get away with it

882
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 2: when you play as Uruguay does. They're not going to

883
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 2: be a hugely pressing team. Nobody really presses a ton

884
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,959
Speaker 2: and that's the one thing the difference beween international club

885
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 2: and you know, you just don't see the structure out

886
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 2: of possession, the depressing nature. You just don't see that

887
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:06,879
Speaker 2: as much in international. That's why the teams who are

888
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 2: effective at it, like Denmark and even those Italy teams

889
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 2: that won the Euro last year, like that's what makes

890
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:16,760
Speaker 2: them so much more dangerous I think the biggest point

891
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 2: to make in this group is that the biggest difference

892
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: between talent, like the some of the parts and the whole,

893
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:25,800
Speaker 2: and the whole in this entire world might be Portugal.

894
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 2: And it's because Fernando Santos doesn't let them be expansive,

895
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 2: doesn't let them show what they have, which is an

896
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 2: incredible group of attackers. I mean, we we can list

897
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 2: off all the good players, like if you just pull

898
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 2: up the rosters and said, all right, who do we

899
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 2: really like, We're like, wow, oh my gosh, they have

900
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:47,759
Speaker 2: so many good players, even not just attackers, but fullbacks

901
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:57,280
Speaker 2: Rafael Guerrero, Juan Cancelo and in attack Fernandez Ronaldo Jalta's injured, okay,

902
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 2: but Bernardo Silva, Like there's so many good pla. You're like,

903
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 2: how can this team not be good? And then you

904
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 2: turn on the game and you watch them and you're like,

905
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 2: and this team really sticks, like they just don't have

906
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 2: a plan to progress the ball up the pitch. Like,

907
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 2: let's not forget, Portugal probably wouldn't have made the World

908
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 2: Cup if North Macedonia hadn't beaten Italy and that stunning

909
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 2: upset miracle because Portugal probably would have lost to Italy,

910
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 2: who was better. You look at Portugal's numbers in qualifying,

911
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 2: it wasn't that impressive, like their attack put up good numbers,

912
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 2: but that was against such weak competition. The second best

913
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 2: team in their group was Serbia. The rest of the

914
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 2: group was awful and the defense didn't hold up that well.

915
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 2: So I am concerned about Portugal across the board. I

916
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 2: think they're a fade team in this tournament. I thought

917
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 2: they were a fade team going into the Euros as well.

918
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:53,360
Speaker 2: They were eleventh and expected goals allowed in Europe. So

919
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 2: I'm not buying into the Portugal narratives. I think Uruguay

920
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 2: is the team to take a step forward. Uruguay did

921
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 2: beat them at the last World Cup to knock them out.

922
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 2: I think Portugal and Rinaldo is a problem too. I mean,

923
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 2: even the Ronaldo compared to the Euros last year, or

924
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 2: compared to the last like, it's a huge difference in

925
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 2: how much he's fallen off. They can't rely on him

926
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 2: and if they're going to build their entire attack around him,

927
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 2: that hurts the attack. I think the biggest thing you

928
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 2: see too, Bruno Fernandez is so good at times for

929
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 2: United when he's getting on the ball and able to

930
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:28,520
Speaker 2: get space to make those dangerous passes, and he's a

931
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 2: high risk pass it right, so he doesn't have a

932
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 2: high completion percentage. But when he does pick that right pass,

933
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 2: it's beautiful. Remember the story's coming out the Euros last year,

934
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 2: Bruno Fernandez doesn't turn up for country out of form,

935
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 2: choked the eros. That was the narrative. Reality is they

936
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:41,799
Speaker 2: just don't have anybody who can get him the ball.

937
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 2: They couldn't progress the ball up the pitch enough to

938
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 2: get Bruno space to do his thing. So and I

939
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 2: don't think they solve that issue at all. So I'm

940
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 2: out on Portugal. I like Uruguay to win the group.

941
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 4: All right, It's going to be a lot of money

942
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 4: sunk into Japan and Uruguay for us. Once again, we

943
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 4: thank you for listening to Morocco and Morocco for yeah,

944
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:01,839
Speaker 4: Kindada Morocco. Again, thank you for listening to Wonder Goal.

945
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 4: A reminder that we will have four World Cup previews.

946
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 4: We already did a through D, this was E through

947
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 4: H and then we'll have a tournament futures. We'll talk

948
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:14,239
Speaker 4: about our favorite bets to win. Player futures like Golden Boot,

949
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:17,839
Speaker 4: Golden Ball and then a USA deep dive. But until then,

950
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,280
Speaker 4: this is Michael Leeboff for b J. Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo,

951
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 4: wishing you the best of lucks, all your bets,