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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough?

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Speaker 3: No running again?

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Speaker 4: So smoothe so sweet slidid.

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Speaker 1: Sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 1: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop with mind?

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Speaker 1: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 4: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 4: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Up.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The one. It's left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 3: Drilled bibus how old Earth?

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Speaker 4: Pick that happens?

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Speaker 2: Helloy one and welcome back to one Ago, the soccer

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Speaker 2: betting podcast from the Action Network, presented to you by

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Speaker 2: Bet three six five. My name is Michael Ebuff and

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Speaker 2: joining me for this episode are my friends and co

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Speaker 2: hosts b J. Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo. Together the three

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Speaker 2: of us are going to go over the upcoming ten

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Speaker 2: match slate in the Premier League this weekend. We'll touch

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Speaker 2: on the rest of the European leagues. Give out a

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Speaker 2: three leg underdog parlay one hundred and fifty seven to one.

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Speaker 2: Excruciatingly close to being very live with today's action, but

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Speaker 2: oh well, we'll just have to hit this one instead

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Speaker 2: and then we'll talk about our favorite bets for the

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Speaker 2: Premier League coming up. There was of course a shakeup

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Speaker 2: in the midweek in terms of the title race. We'll

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Speaker 2: get into all that, but we'll have and we'll start

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Speaker 2: there too with Arsenal, who as we record, we are

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Speaker 2: recording Wednesday night, so City hasn't played yet. Arsenal are

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Speaker 2: top of the league with Cities yet with two games

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Speaker 2: in hand, Arsenal has a four point gap on City,

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Speaker 2: who played Brighton their big favorite on Thursday. But it's

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Speaker 2: a huge, huge match, another one for Arsenal on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: This one will be played at Tottenham and Spurs are

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Speaker 2: three to one underdogs to Arsenal, traveling as a odds

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Speaker 2: on minus one twenty five favorite. The draw here it

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Speaker 2: pays out three to one BJ. This is an Anthony

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Speaker 2: versus BJ Darby. This is a massive game. Now that

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Speaker 2: Anthony's Liverpool have been eliminated from the title race, he

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Speaker 2: can become a Spurs fan again. Yeah, so which is

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Speaker 2: you know, makes his life a little bit easier. But

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Speaker 2: you like Arsenal. Here, I'm BJ and it's not just

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Speaker 2: is it just your heart? To be honest, it's both.

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Speaker 4: It's it's everything right hard to my head, my everything Arsenal.

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Speaker 1: It's amazing against Chelsea on Tuesday in a really bad spot.

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Speaker 1: And I think there were a couple of things to

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Speaker 1: take away from that match that really made Arsenal look

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Speaker 1: a lot better. And the main one is Thomas Party

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Speaker 1: being inserted back into the lineup. You know, if you

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Speaker 1: go last season, he was Arsenal's most important player for

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Speaker 1: the first half and then he kind of fell off

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Speaker 1: towards the second half. Him being in the lineup allows

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Speaker 1: Declan Rice to push forward more and you saw the

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Speaker 1: effects of that with the very first goal. Right, Rice

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Speaker 1: is able to float fine space, got the ball, dribbled

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Speaker 1: right at the defense, got the assist for Trossard. So

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Speaker 1: having Party not only be an elite ball stopper, but

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Speaker 1: tomy Aso being an invert as well, it just gives

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Speaker 1: Arsenal so much more tactribal flexibility. And also when Arsenal

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Speaker 1: does lose the ball in the opponent's final third, Rice

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Speaker 1: is pushed up so far on them that he have

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Speaker 1: one of your best counterpressors. They're ready to win the ball.

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Speaker 1: So there's so many good things about Thomas party being

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Speaker 1: an inserted in the lineup that make Arsenal so much better.

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Speaker 4: And if we go back to the first.

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Speaker 1: Meeting, I know it ended a two to two draw

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Speaker 1: and Todam is one of the few teams that I've

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Speaker 1: created over one expected goal against.

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Speaker 4: Arsenal this season.

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Speaker 1: The first half, Todham could not strength two or three

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Speaker 1: passes together or get the ball out of their own end.

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Speaker 1: Arsenal suffocated them eleven high turnovers for the match, a

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Speaker 1: seven passes per defensive action. Arsenal's coming off match against

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Speaker 1: Chelsea where they it was game state dependent, like not

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Speaker 1: without a doubt because they scored in the fourth minute,

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Speaker 1: but they handed the ball to Chelsea. They con see

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Speaker 1: a possession. They said, we don't think you're good enough

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Speaker 1: to break us down and we're good enough out of

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Speaker 1: possession to control this match.

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Speaker 2: So here you go.

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Speaker 4: Have the ball. And what did Arsenal do.

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Speaker 1: They forced fourteen high turnovers and six of those led

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Speaker 1: to shots. Totenham is going to build out of the back,

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Speaker 1: They're not going to send the ball long. So without

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Speaker 1: Adoghi now, which is a huge loss for Tottenham because

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Speaker 1: he would be the one that would be defending Soka

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Speaker 1: another thing Arsenal's been doing. Ben White's been overlapping quite

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Speaker 1: a bit with Socca, which creates a lot of problems

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Speaker 1: for opposing defenses who get in those one v ones

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Speaker 1: versus Sokka. So I think there's a light a lot

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Speaker 1: to like about Arsenal here. Yes, Tottenham does have the

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Speaker 1: rest advantage. Yes they're at home, but again not having Adogi,

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Speaker 1: which now creates a little bit of a problem and

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Speaker 1: of what Spurs are able to actually do and build up.

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Speaker 1: I think Arsenal can be able to control this match

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Speaker 1: out of possession. I think that they're going to be

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Speaker 1: very live on sep pieces as they always are, and

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to force side turnovers and create

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Speaker 1: those easy transition moments. So projected Arsenal north of minus

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Speaker 1: one thirty, so you know, the market's kind of gone

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Speaker 1: up a little bit here on to them. Like you said, Michael,

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Speaker 1: it's at minus one twenty five, so that's a little

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Speaker 1: that's like minus one twenty is probably the breaking point

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Speaker 1: for me.

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Speaker 4: So if you can find them on us one twenty

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Speaker 4: or better, I think that's good enough for Arsenal here

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Speaker 4: on the road.

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Speaker 3: I think the fullbacks are the big key and the

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Speaker 3: thing that I'm concerned about for Spurs. Here you mentioned

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Speaker 3: your Doggie being out. Pooro is also listed as questionable

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Speaker 3: here fifty to fifty to go. You know, Tottenham's fullbacks

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Speaker 3: are so important in build up in how they'd like

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Speaker 3: to use them, and I think they're going to be

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Speaker 3: a huge key in trying to play through pressure. You

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Speaker 3: can even go back to you know, the United match

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Speaker 3: way back in the beginning of the season, and even

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Speaker 3: that Arsenal match way back in the beginning of the

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Speaker 3: season where Doggy Pooro, like their ability to you know,

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Speaker 3: be in possession, to get forward, to invert really enable

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Speaker 3: them to play through. United's press is not as bad

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Speaker 3: as it is now and Arsenal's press, which is, you know,

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Speaker 3: maybe the best in the league, so their ability to

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Speaker 3: do that without them becomes a little bit more shaky h.

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Speaker 3: And also their attack is worse. You know, they got

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Speaker 3: they get so much production from Budagi and Poro getting

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Speaker 3: into the box getting shots because at the end of

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Speaker 3: the day, you know, Charlaton's list is questionable too. When

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Speaker 3: Charlotteton's not in and the fullbacks are out, Son is

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Speaker 3: giving them decent production Madison's been okay, and like they

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Speaker 3: get they get there, but the attack is not you know,

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Speaker 3: relying on one or two three guys. They rely on

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Speaker 3: having all these numbers to produce. And when you start,

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Speaker 3: you know, kneecapping the secondary guys and say you're not

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Speaker 3: gonna play, you're out. This guy's out.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 3: It is important. And you saw the market take a

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Speaker 3: ton of Arsenal money on the I think the odogie news.

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Speaker 3: But the thing is it is a really still like

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Speaker 3: the fact that the fact that Arsenal has played three

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Speaker 3: matches since Spurs' last match is a huge difference in

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Speaker 3: terms of you know, fatigue potential here. You know, it

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Speaker 3: was just on the pod like four days ago, we

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Speaker 3: were all like, oh man, Arsenal looks so tired, they

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Speaker 3: look so ghassed. They had one great performance, you know

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Speaker 3: against Chelsea, a Chelsea team that we don't really think

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Speaker 3: much of defensively, and now we're just gonna go back

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Speaker 3: to like they're free flying again. I can't quite get there.

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Speaker 3: The total on this match I have right around three

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Speaker 3: point one and now three and a half is just

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Speaker 3: under minus one fifty. If that got down to minus

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Speaker 3: one forty, I would take the under So I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: wait and see on this one. Get a little closer

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Speaker 3: to game time. I am concerned about Tottenham's fullbacks, not

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Speaker 3: even just defensively, but in going forward. And you know,

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Speaker 3: I still have the same you know, I'm not going

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Speaker 3: to overreact to one match where they create a bunch

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Speaker 3: of chances, largely in transition against Chelsea. You know they

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Speaker 3: should be able to do that again here. I'm curious

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Speaker 3: who has more of the ball? I think that'll be

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Speaker 3: more interesting. You know, while at zero zero, which team

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Speaker 3: do we think has more of the possession? I think

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Speaker 3: is an interesting way of thinking about this match because

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Speaker 3: Tottenham have controlled matches against almost everybody they've played this year.

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Speaker 3: But again, like they played Liverpool when they had nine

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Speaker 3: men and they played you know, Arsenal at Arsenal, that

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Speaker 3: was the one match where they maybe didn't control it,

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Speaker 3: but they had a good amount of possession. So who

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Speaker 3: has a majority of the possession would be really interesting

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Speaker 3: here because you know, Arsenal's away from home. They could

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Speaker 3: come out and look to play on the break again.

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Speaker 3: I think that's a very viable strategy for them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would tend I think I'm gonna end up

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Speaker 2: betting Spurs here on Sunday morning. It just goes into

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Speaker 2: the to the fatigue factories. I mean, we saw it

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Speaker 2: with Liverpool and everyting today and maybe it's a little

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Speaker 2: apples orange just a little bit given how those teams

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Speaker 2: want to play Arsenal compared to Liverpool. But it's it's

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Speaker 2: a factor here, Like it's it's not we can't just

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Speaker 2: like like you said, like just forget that. We were saying,

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Speaker 2: who what a terrible spot against Chelsea on the Sunday episode.

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Speaker 2: Now that it's a couple of days later and they

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Speaker 2: throttled Chelsea. Who, by the way, can that can happen

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Speaker 2: to them? So I I like, I like Spurs here.

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Speaker 2: It's cliche to say it, but in a in a

189
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Speaker 2: match like this where you're trying to cause your eternal

190
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Speaker 2: rival to to lose the title, it's I'm expecting a

191
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Speaker 2: a thriller here. So I think that actually helps Spurs

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Speaker 2: a little bit if it gets a little hectic, Like

193
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Speaker 2: that's that's what they want to be in, right, Like

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Speaker 2: they want to be in a in a cauldron where

195
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Speaker 2: you got you know, people bang for blood and such.

196
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I have Arsenal minus one ten so I'm like

197
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Speaker 3: pretty much in line with the market on this one.

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Speaker 3: So no real real side opinion.

199
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Speaker 2: Well thank you for adding that.

200
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Speaker 4: Let's go on to.

201
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Speaker 2: We'll go Liverpool and west Ham And first we got

202
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Speaker 2: to say that Liverpool lost the league. It good as

203
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Speaker 2: syn Park. They lost the league. It good as syn Park.

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Speaker 2: And now they have to go to west Ham. Boy,

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Speaker 2: you want to talk about a flat spot, man, this

206
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Speaker 2: is tough that the lines already come down a bit

207
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Speaker 2: on on west Ham and we we've got very little

208
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Speaker 2: like enthusiasm to bet this Hammers team. But unless you're

209
00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:06,679
Speaker 2: just betting into Liverpool winning one for the gipper here

210
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Speaker 2: and just trying to and and like, look, they're they're

211
00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:11,520
Speaker 2: going to try to stay in Who knows, maybe city

212
00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:15,440
Speaker 2: drops points to Brighton, but you know, it's really hard

213
00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:18,040
Speaker 2: to find it. I would be hard pressed to find

214
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Speaker 2: anyone who'd be confident laying minus one eighty with Liverpool

215
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Speaker 2: on the road, considering once again the schedule spot right, like,

216
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Speaker 2: this is still a ton of soccer piling up on

217
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Speaker 2: on these guys. They looked pretty gassed today. The Masala

218
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Speaker 2: looks way out of sorts. So the back line too

219
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Speaker 2: was really had having issues with set pieces, and hey,

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Speaker 2: David Moyes, he loves himself a set piece, so us

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Speaker 2: Yeah exactly, it's a I'm not saying the same game

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Speaker 2: is going to play out again, but if there were

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Speaker 2: two opponents that could do it back to back, it

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Speaker 2: would be these two. So I would lean towards west

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Speaker 2: Ham here in pretty I'd be much more emphatic about

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Speaker 2: betting west Ham than than Liverpool who lost the league today.

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Speaker 2: Goodison Park, BJ your thoughts here west Ham and Liverpool.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, if the same game plays out, which

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Speaker 1: it probably will, where west Ham tries to play very

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Speaker 1: passively and just takes on a bunch of shots, they

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Speaker 1: are significantly worse in their defensive.

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Speaker 4: Block than Everton is. So that's a worry here.

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Speaker 1: If you're going to back west Ham right, like, they

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Speaker 1: can definitely hit Liverpool on the break. They have the

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Speaker 1: guys to do it, they have the ballcarriers, they have

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Speaker 1: the pace to be able to hit them. But I

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Speaker 1: just I'm just envisioning Darmin Nunez taking like ten shots

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Speaker 1: in this match and six of them being hilarious misses,

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Speaker 1: but also scoring twice.

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Speaker 3: Yeah exactly, but yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean west Ham, I mean you might want to

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Speaker 1: look at Liverpool's shot over props. It might be a

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Speaker 1: little big game state dependent, but yeah it's I mean

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Speaker 1: west Ham they just don't defend anymore. They're gonna sit passively.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna allow Liverpool in their final third. And Liverpool

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Speaker 1: is not really a team that and you saw it

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Speaker 1: against Everton today that really really works hard, hard hard

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Speaker 1: to get the best quality chance. It's kind of just

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Speaker 1: like once it opens up, boom shot. And that's why

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Speaker 1: a lot of shots got blocked today. So I'm passing

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Speaker 1: like I'm right in line with the market. I have

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Speaker 1: Liverpool at minus one sixty six total of three point six,

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Speaker 1: so there's really just no value for me here some passing.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna hope they rotate because like I think they

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Speaker 3: if they do rotate, I want to bet them at

256
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Speaker 3: at the reduced price for straight road match too, right,

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Speaker 3: that's the thing. Fourth traight road match in ten days.

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Speaker 3: They get the early kickoff Saturday morning after the Wednesday.

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Speaker 4: Have anything to say about travel all the.

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Speaker 3: Way back from Everton to right back that in But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think that you know, if Liverpool rotates some guys

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Speaker 3: in here and we get some fresh legs and they

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Speaker 3: still get to go at this terrible west Ham defense,

264
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Speaker 3: and I'm going to get like minus one fifty instead

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Speaker 3: of minus one eighty because Sala sits a cooked version

266
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Speaker 3: of Sala. Then I'm happy to take Liverpool at a discount,

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Speaker 3: but right now, at the current price, with not knowing

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Speaker 3: anything about the lineups, I'm going to pass.

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Speaker 2: All right, Let's go now to City and full worst

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Speaker 2: with Forrest is a big underdog at home, they are

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Speaker 2: plus six fifty between plus five fifty and six fifty

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Speaker 2: depending where you're looking, City minus two fifty. The draw

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Speaker 2: is plus four fifty. I think all of us are

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Speaker 2: gonna be on the same page here with Forrest being

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Speaker 2: a pretty tricky team for this for the City to unlock. Like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: City's light years better than them, but we know how

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Speaker 2: Forest is gonna want to play, we know what now

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Speaker 2: is gonna want them to do, and they're still in

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Speaker 2: the thick of this relegation battle, so they're gonna want

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Speaker 2: any any bit of the three points available here, whether

281
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Speaker 2: it's one or three between them and City. They're one

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Speaker 2: point clear of Glutontown right now, only three points clear

283
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Speaker 2: of Burnley. They have points deduction to contend with so

284
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Speaker 2: that's all playing into this too. But I just think,

285
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Speaker 2: you know, this is gonna be a park the bus

286
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Speaker 2: special even at home for for Forrest BJA, and it

287
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Speaker 2: could help Forest have at least a platform to cover

288
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Speaker 2: the spreads, which is where you guys, am sure are

289
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Speaker 2: gonna be looking.

290
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I do like Forrest plus one and a half here.

291
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Speaker 1: You know, Chelsea, we're obviously, like you said, recording this

292
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Speaker 1: for the Brighton match, so we don't know what happens there.

293
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Speaker 1: But the match that we've least seen is the FA

294
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Speaker 1: Cup match against Chelsea where City really struggled to figure

295
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Speaker 1: out Chelsea's low block and what Chelsea did. So they

296
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Speaker 1: played kind of a unique low block and they tried

297
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Speaker 1: it against Arsenal and didn't work. But they played a

298
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Speaker 1: four to two four low block. And the reason why

299
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Speaker 1: they did that is because when City tries to build up,

300
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Speaker 1: and you know, usually it's a back three, and then

301
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Speaker 1: in various.

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Speaker 4: Moon in the second and third pace is a build up.

303
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Speaker 1: Well, if they're going with the back three, if Chelsea

304
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Speaker 1: is able to be aggressive out of that, which they were,

305
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Speaker 1: they were trying to press out of that low block.

306
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Speaker 1: If they're pressed and able to win the ball. They

307
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Speaker 1: have a fourty three situation. You saw that work a

308
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Speaker 1: couple of times. You know, they're again Nico Jackson could

309
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Speaker 1: have put a couple away like they had chances for sure.

310
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Speaker 1: So you could see Nottingham Forrest really replicate the exact

311
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Speaker 1: same game plan. Like, yes, it'll be a park the

312
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Speaker 1: Bus special. They'll play a little bit deeper, but I

313
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Speaker 1: think you'll see them be a little bit aggress about

314
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Speaker 1: their low block, trying to press City, trying to win

315
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Speaker 1: the ball. They've been a little bit more aggressive with

316
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Speaker 1: their pressing undern No, Like it's not like a huge jump,

317
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Speaker 1: like they were the most passive team in the league

318
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Speaker 1: under Steve Cooper passed per defensive action of eighteen point eight.

319
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Speaker 1: Under nun No, they're about fifteen point two. So there's

320
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Speaker 1: been some like onus to actually.

321
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Speaker 4: Press and like, you know, not just sit back.

322
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Speaker 1: And they have the pace and the guys that can

323
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Speaker 1: give City problems in transition with Morgan, Gibbs, White, Hudson

324
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Speaker 1: and Dey Alonga Raina, et cetera.

325
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Speaker 2: They have the pace to be able to do it.

326
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Speaker 1: And you know the previous match, Roger got a red

327
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Speaker 1: card at halftime when City was already up to nothing.

328
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Speaker 1: But even up to that point, like City hadn't really

329
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Speaker 1: like dominated the match or created a bunch of high

330
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Speaker 1: quality chances like they were still struggling against for a

331
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Speaker 1: slow block. So there's also Forrest, who's played much better

332
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Speaker 1: at home the entire season round a plus three expected

333
00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:55,520
Speaker 1: goal differential, been much better offensively under Nuno, averaging close

334
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Speaker 1: to a little over one point four expected goals for

335
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Speaker 1: ninety minutes, So I think four, who is well drilled

336
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Speaker 1: and used to playing a low block, can give City

337
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Speaker 1: some problems. So blast school matches have kind of struggled

338
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Speaker 1: trying to figure out low blocks. So I like Forest

339
00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:12,360
Speaker 1: plus more and a half here only projected City a

340
00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,440
Speaker 1: little north of minus one fifty, So I like the

341
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Speaker 1: trees at home.

342
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:20,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, early Holland out for Thursday, questionable for Sunday too,

343
00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,960
Speaker 3: So that's some important to note. Obviously, the drop off

344
00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,800
Speaker 3: between him to Alvarez, it's like half a goal of

345
00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:28,600
Speaker 3: i've expected goals per ninety minutes they're getting from Holland

346
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:32,160
Speaker 3: versus Albarez, even when you take out penalties. So I

347
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:34,520
Speaker 3: know Holland hasn't been quote unquote as good as last

348
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:38,240
Speaker 3: year and finishing issues, but it's still a big, big,

349
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:39,040
Speaker 3: big golf.

350
00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,440
Speaker 2: Yeah. You know what, now we've been talking about it.

351
00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:44,640
Speaker 2: I actually don't hate the draw here at all.

352
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Speaker 4: I don't either.

353
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that this could end up one once

354
00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:50,040
Speaker 2: so plus fourth fifty on the draw. I think I'm

355
00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,800
Speaker 2: gonna be there.

356
00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:55,640
Speaker 3: So that teams a lot in the last three weeks.

357
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Speaker 3: You can pretty much bang on that.

358
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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, all right. How about Crystal Palace just an

359
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:06,919
Speaker 2: absolute juggernaut under Gloschner, who were like, what is this

360
00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:10,480
Speaker 2: guy doing as he does? Has he started to? They

361
00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:14,960
Speaker 2: look the same basically, and well he's got them rocking

362
00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,800
Speaker 2: and rolling a bit here, coming off of their third

363
00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:21,760
Speaker 2: straight win. They've beaten Liverpool, West Ham and then Newcastle

364
00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:26,119
Speaker 2: United by an aggregate score of eight to two, the

365
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:30,760
Speaker 2: most recent being a win against Newcastle at home thorough

366
00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,239
Speaker 2: two nil win. And we're gonna be right back on him,

367
00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:37,040
Speaker 2: all three of us on Palace here. I like the

368
00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,640
Speaker 2: money line. You guys are going with the spread, Anthony,

369
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 2: you can get it started here as they take on Fulham.

370
00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:43,800
Speaker 3: Tell you what, every time you kept reading, I felt

371
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:46,639
Speaker 3: less and less like I like Palace here, just like,

372
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,560
Speaker 3: oh look, at this you know, new manager, I mean

373
00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:53,240
Speaker 3: feels square. But three to a row the most trendy

374
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,879
Speaker 3: dog on the place of the earth this weekend, feels

375
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:57,880
Speaker 3: that way about them. But I mean, look, I mean

376
00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,520
Speaker 3: I watched every minute of the New cow Some match today.

377
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:02,560
Speaker 3: They were the only team in it dominated a Newcastle

378
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:06,000
Speaker 3: team that had been trending up, uh the essay, you know.

379
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:09,280
Speaker 3: They they even saddles for the first half ish of

380
00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 3: the match. And Matteta might get to ten league goals

381
00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:14,879
Speaker 3: this year and he's been on a bit of it

382
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:16,880
Speaker 3: of a heater. But yeah, golden.

383
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:21,200
Speaker 2: Boot, dark Horse next time. No, he scored, you know,

384
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:22,719
Speaker 2: twenty five more goals.

385
00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,280
Speaker 1: Palmer wasn't even he only needs like you know, it's

386
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:27,440
Speaker 1: twelve or thirteen more goals.

387
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:28,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're we're.

388
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 2: Okay, true.

389
00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:33,240
Speaker 4: Yeah Palmer was available season coon like guys cooked.

390
00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:38,359
Speaker 3: Yeah he caught a cold. Uh the you know, But

391
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:40,440
Speaker 3: there's not a ton of difference between the two teams

392
00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:42,240
Speaker 3: for me right now. In fact, Palace is a little

393
00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:43,840
Speaker 3: better with everybody healthy than Fulham.

394
00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:44,160
Speaker 2: I think.

395
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,320
Speaker 3: So, you know, you're getting plus a half of minus

396
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,280
Speaker 3: one twenty ish. I think it's good. Nothing too crazy here.

397
00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,880
Speaker 3: I think it's square. I think, you know, maybe we're

398
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,120
Speaker 3: catching Palace towards the top of the market on them,

399
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,400
Speaker 3: but you know, they're they're the team that that looks

400
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:58,200
Speaker 3: like they're sprinting into the finish and actually wants to

401
00:18:58,240 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 3: be out there and they're playing good stuff.

402
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:01,960
Speaker 2: Well, the good news is we're gonna betting them again.

403
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:06,600
Speaker 2: Uh the following week match week two at Selhurst. Don't

404
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 2: they know they play Manchester United?

405
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:10,880
Speaker 3: Oh even better even Yeah.

406
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:12,920
Speaker 2: We'll be will be lay minus two and a half

407
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:14,600
Speaker 2: and minus three and a half with Pallace, I.

408
00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 3: Think they might be like pick them in that game

409
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,119
Speaker 3: out of the line. So this is a that's a guess.

410
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:22,360
Speaker 4: J Yeah.

411
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:26,359
Speaker 1: Uh so under Glossner, they're really just starting to build

412
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,960
Speaker 1: out of the back, more control, more possession. You know,

413
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 1: Anthony mentioned that playing Elise and as they both centrally, well,

414
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 1: they're also dropping them deep when they try to build

415
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:38,479
Speaker 1: up and they're forcing center backs and defensive midfielders out

416
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 1: of position and spaces they don't really want to go

417
00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:44,080
Speaker 1: combining with Mateta. You saw that a lot today against Newcastle.

418
00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:47,400
Speaker 1: This guy Adam Wharton came over from Blackburn. I mean

419
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:50,440
Speaker 1: he's incredible, like Uh, I mean pal I mean you

420
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:54,119
Speaker 1: shouldn't shouldn't be a surprised because Palace historically just don't

421
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 1: miss on guys from the championship because obviously they hit

422
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,440
Speaker 1: on a Lisa and and as a in many other guys.

423
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,080
Speaker 1: But him with a double pivot with Will Hughes has

424
00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 1: been working really well so far. And even when Palace

425
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,439
Speaker 1: is out of possession, they're they're pressing really well, and

426
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 1: then they're falling back into a five to three too,

427
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,880
Speaker 1: like they're they're a really well drilled defensive team.

428
00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 4: We know that from Roy Hanson.

429
00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,640
Speaker 1: But you know, the thing is is once I mean

430
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 1: it goes without saying, but with Esse and Ealise on

431
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 1: the pitch together, they're averaging one point seven expected goals

432
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,680
Speaker 1: for ninety minutes under Glassner. They've now played five matches

433
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,879
Speaker 1: against teams in the bottom half of the table and

434
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 1: they have a plus four point seven expected gold differential

435
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 1: that gets those five teams so just much better with

436
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,680
Speaker 1: their best two players, much better with the manager.

437
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 4: That has tactics that cater to his best players.

438
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 1: So I agree with Anthony, like these two teams are

439
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 1: like bang on even since Gladron took over, so Palace

440
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:49,920
Speaker 1: plus a half.

441
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: Okay, let's talk about Manchester United next. Amazing, great today, right,

442
00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 2: amazing when man.

443
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,880
Speaker 3: Zacchually Harry would go Iron all things considered.

444
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, Harry Maguire sticking it to his boyhood club. He

445
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,760
Speaker 2: still goes to Sheffield United matches, which is I love that?

446
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,720
Speaker 2: So he's he's he gets a United even and then

447
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 2: Bruno scores twice in a three two thriller against Sheffield United.

448
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 2: Now they take on another relegation threatened team and their

449
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 2: minus two ten at home and Burnley is five to

450
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,120
Speaker 2: one on the road and the draw is four to one,

451
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 2: And do we even need to go into it? Like

452
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:36,479
Speaker 2: I mean, if if you're struggling to get results against

453
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 2: Sheffield United and that it wasn't an aberration or a

454
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 2: blip on the radar. You just your past two matches

455
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 2: have been absolute slobber knockers against Coventry City Sheffield United,

456
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 2: and before that, you know, you drew Bourne myth. So

457
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 2: it's not good. So why not take a shot with

458
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 2: Burnley here? It does look like the numbers, you know,

459
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,440
Speaker 2: come down a bit, but because nobody believes in United.

460
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 2: But still I'll take a five to one shot with

461
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 2: a team fighting relegation against this mess in at Old

462
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 2: Trafford BJ.

463
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 4: Yeah.

464
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:12,159
Speaker 1: Absolutely, And I think it's interesting how United conceded the

465
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 1: first goal.

466
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 4: So before the.

467
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 1: Match it came out that the new i think it's

468
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 1: the new president or the new owners, wants to play

469
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 1: a specific style, so they're forcing ten Hog to play

470
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 1: in more possession based style, which he did play at

471
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 1: Ie Hacks. He just can't right now because they have

472
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 1: nobody healthy and they try to build on the back

473
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 1: and they just concede a really easy goal off of

474
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 1: a pass from the goalkeeper right into the back of

475
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 1: the net.

476
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 4: Burnley is a team that likes to press.

477
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 1: They haven't done it much because you know they get

478
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 1: beat in transition so many times. But given the way

479
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 1: that Sheffield United, who had been one of the more

480
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 1: passive teams we've seen all season long, was able to

481
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 1: cause problems for United trying to build out of the back,

482
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 1: like of course they can cause cause some problems here

483
00:22:56,720 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 1: for some high turnovers and get some easy transition opportuit.

484
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 4: I mean I have played Maynew and.

485
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 1: Erickson in the midfield to day like that's zero to

486
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 1: little ball winning Like Maynew was great, but he's not

487
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,120
Speaker 1: an elite ball stopper yet, so they.

488
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:10,679
Speaker 4: Just have nothing.

489
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,119
Speaker 1: Nobody's healthy, Like the United attack is still good and everything,

490
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 1: but this is gonna be another basketball match and United

491
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 1: can't really Outso I mean they yes, they got to

492
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 1: call it like Bruno scored a penalty and then from

493
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,439
Speaker 1: outside the box and then Hoyland got one when the

494
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 1: match got stretched. But I like Burnley plus one and

495
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 1: a half here. You can get still a minus one

496
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 1: forty out there. They have underperformed lately, They've been okay,

497
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 1: Like they're not as bad as Sheffield, they're not as

498
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: bad as Lowton, so they definitely can give United some

499
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 1: problems here.

500
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,120
Speaker 4: So I like them plus one and a half.

501
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I have Burnley at one point two goals,

502
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 3: which puts them right around thirty three ish percent to

503
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:52,399
Speaker 3: score twice. So like plus one eighty is not like

504
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 3: a great value bet plus twenty eighty five, but you know,

505
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 3: that's been the bet we've been doing on this show

506
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 3: just about every other week with you know, team total

507
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 3: over one and a half. Against Man United, we had Borne,

508
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 3: Myth and Coventry and you know, I think at the

509
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 3: end of the year here, I'm gonna have some money

510
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 3: on Burnley team total for the similar reasons that this

511
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 3: is just one of the worst defenses I've ever seen

512
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 3: from a Big six team. They've now conceded the most

513
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 3: shots in the Premier League, which is remarkable. That was

514
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 3: before today, so maybe Sheffield probably got passed again, but

515
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 3: it's pretty remarkable that they're that far down the table

516
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 3: in that metric given their name and brand. But you

517
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 3: mentioned it, BJ, I mean, Shaw and Martinez are important

518
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,679
Speaker 3: to build up. Not having either is killing them and

519
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,159
Speaker 3: it's never been a strength of McGuire's so you know,

520
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 3: Nona gets pressed and there's just so little respect from

521
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,399
Speaker 3: these teams. I mean, Sheffield comes and just gives it

522
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 3: a go and you know, goes up to one in

523
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 3: the second half, ultimately fold because they're Sheffield. But yeah,

524
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 3: I think Burnley's live here to score a couple of

525
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:54,880
Speaker 3: times again and we're gonna go back to the well

526
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 3: as we like to do on the show.

527
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 2: Yep. Yeah, and probably our favorite well this season. Not

528
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 2: too much from any of us on Newcastle in Sheffield United.

529
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 2: Newcastle right now is sitting at minus four fifty. They

530
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 2: are the biggest favorite on the board for this week

531
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 2: and Sheffield United is traveling to Saint James at ten

532
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 2: to one. Draw here six to one. Of course Sheffield

533
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 2: United is relegated. Got nothing here, anything from you, guys, No,

534
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 2: I just.

535
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,479
Speaker 1: Looked at e Shack anytime goal scorers like minus one fifty,

536
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 1: So no, thank you.

537
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 3: Everything I need to know.

538
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have three points, is an easy, easy pass.

539
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: Three point team to score is still like minus one

540
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 1: eighty something, So like, I don't really have any interest

541
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 1: in anything here.

542
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 3: I think there's a funny story to this, which is

543
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 3: I bet the under three at even money in the

544
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:50,879
Speaker 3: first meeting. This was way back in September, and I

545
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 3: remember it was like two point eight goals I had

546
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 3: or two point eight five and now I project three

547
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,679
Speaker 3: point six goals. It just shows you how much the

548
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 3: goal environment's changed, how much these teams have changed, just

549
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 3: you know, with the bottom falling out for Sheffield and

550
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 3: Newcastle's defense and just crazy how much can change in

551
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 3: six months. But here's where we are, and I have

552
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 3: no doubt here.

553
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 2: All right, then we can move on Luton Town and

554
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 2: Wolves up next. Obviously massive game for Luton as they

555
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,719
Speaker 2: continue there battle to state in the Premier League. Wolves

556
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 2: as a odds on slightly odds on favorite minus one

557
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 2: o six at home Luton traveling plus two sixty. The

558
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:33,640
Speaker 2: draw is plus two to eighty. You guys both like Wolverhampton.

559
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 2: I'm going to pass here, Anthony tell us about Wolves.

560
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,199
Speaker 3: I think Luton's going to be a popular pick here.

561
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:40,959
Speaker 3: You're gonna hear the punitry that's going to say, oh,

562
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 3: you know, Wolves are in poor form, They're on the beach,

563
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 3: they're looking toward next season. They got all these injuries,

564
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 3: all of which is probably true. Luton Town, they need

565
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,919
Speaker 3: to win. They're only one point behind Forest and the

566
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 3: relegation picture and four matches left. This is one of

567
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 3: their better chances to get a result. And I think

568
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 3: they have Brentford and Neverton left that they have Everton left,

569
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 3: so maybe that's their best one. But tough stretch for

570
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 3: them to close. And you're gonna say, oh, you know, Luton,

571
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 3: you know they're gonna get the result they need. But

572
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 3: I you know, the number is over compensating for that.

573
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 3: The market is saying that Luton is just a smidge

574
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 3: worse than Wolves. I mean there's almost a half goal

575
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:21,199
Speaker 3: between them. Home field advantage, you know, throw throws, in

576
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 3: there as well. I know Wolves are playing like half

577
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 3: of a change team, but it even money. I think

578
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 3: they're cheap, so I'm not a huge play for me,

579
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:29,880
Speaker 3: you know, I don't like to like overstake these favorites

580
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 3: with no motivation. But it's definitely a small play just

581
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 3: based on the number being so much lower than it

582
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 3: should be at this point in the season.

583
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 4: Yeah.

584
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 1: I mean the injury situation actually isn't that bad for

585
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: Wolves as I think people are making it out to

586
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 1: be because Kunya was on the bench.

587
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 4: He came off the bench against Bornemouth today. Who knows

588
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 4: if he plays obviously, but Elasi's healthy and available to play. Really,

589
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:50,440
Speaker 4: the only.

590
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 1: Guys that are out are Dawson, Bellerguard and Nato. Other

591
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,959
Speaker 1: than that, everybody's available. You know, two best midfielders Lamina

592
00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 1: and Gomes are available, Killman's of Hillboll like the whole

593
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 1: back lines available. So yeah, like Anthony said, like, this

594
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,360
Speaker 1: is a very suppressed price on a Wolves team that, yeah,

595
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 1: has overperformed quite a bit. But I think what will

596
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 1: be interesting here is how good Wolves is trying to

597
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 1: build out and how aggressive Luton is out of possession

598
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: with their pressing becauset Wolves has had. You know, they

599
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 1: they played all right against Arsenal, like they'd exposed some

600
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,920
Speaker 1: flaws and Arsenal's press, but they really struggled against Bormous today.

601
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: They turned it over a ton in their own final

602
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 1: in their own final third. Luton is not even anywhere

603
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 1: close to as good of a pressing teams as those

604
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 1: two teams are. So if they try to go Manda

605
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 1: Man and Luton is still missing a ton of center

606
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 1: backs here, like, it's not like it's gotten any better.

607
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a it's a good spot for.

608
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 1: Wolves who have played much better at home this season

609
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: and they don't have to travel like they just played

610
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 1: a home against Burnmouth. They're gonna be at home here again.

611
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 1: So yeah, a lot of must win tax here for

612
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 1: a louton town. So I mean I've projected Wolves around

613
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 1: minus one forty, so.

614
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 3: Minus one fifty one, yeah, so I like.

615
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 4: Them to need money.

616
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 2: All right, Let's move it on Team of the Year Everton.

617
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 2: They are taking on Brentford twelve thirty pm Eastern Time

618
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 2: kickoff at Goodison Park. Everton plus one forty Brentford plus

619
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 2: one ninety. The draw here pays out plus two fifty

620
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 2: of course, just just a massive, massive win for Everton

621
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 2: on just about every level today against Liverpool they've won

622
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 2: two in a row. They are free and clear, it

623
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 2: seems so on thirty three points Brentford free and clear

624
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 2: two a little bit of a we're not on the

625
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 2: beach just yet, but we're getting there. Bowl. I would

626
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 2: say Brentford would probably be the right side here. I'm

627
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 2: going to pass though, I got nothing here, Anthony.

628
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, short rest, quick turnaround is tough. Such a physical,

629
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 3: emotional match, you know, kind of their Super Bowl really

630
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 3: at this point now they've basically secured you know, safety

631
00:29:56,040 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 3: and they have the short rest spot. It's funny because

632
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 3: something interesting else happened today. I went back and looked

633
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 3: Everton's preseason point total and we back way back when

634
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 3: we did the Wonder Gold Draft we did back in

635
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 3: August with Alon Shapiro and he came on and we did,

636
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 3: you know, we each picked all twenty teams over or under,

637
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 3: and we'll release the results. We know more about the

638
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 3: teams and who won this year. But Everton was forty

639
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 3: and a half. So the win today, the win today

640
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 3: put them at thirty three. Now we have to debate

641
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 3: I think we should grade it like there wasn't a

642
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 3: point seduction. In fairness to a line who bet the

643
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 3: over in the show, he had over forty and a half,

644
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 3: which cashed today. So all the handwringing we've done about

645
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:48,719
Speaker 3: Everton this year, we've probably talked about them more than

646
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 3: any team on the pod not named Arsenal. They went

647
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 3: over their preseason point total with four matches to spare.

648
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 3: Based on the way we've bet them this year, the

649
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 3: heartbreak they've caused us, you would have thought they were

650
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 3: like the worst team that has ever lived, and it's

651
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 3: just kind of the reality that, like, yes, they can't

652
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 3: score from open play, they have their flaws. The market

653
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 3: always thought they were pretty solid. They've they've surpassed pre

654
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 3: season market expectations. Maybe they haven't met in season market expectations.

655
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 3: But you know, all this hand ranging about how horrible

656
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 3: Everton is that that has gone on I think in

657
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 3: the public, and because they were in this relegation battle

658
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 3: because of point deductions, not how good they actually are,

659
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 3: it was funny to just kind of look back on now.

660
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 3: So congrats to a lot and getting that win over

661
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 3: forty and a half, and I'm gonna hope I get

662
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 3: my four points back from my Nottingham Forest over too,

663
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: because I have I have them in the well.

664
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: I wanted to ask you they are you mean to

665
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 1: be able to watch this match? How many set pieces

666
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: they're going.

667
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 3: To be It's gonna be heard. What time is the kick?

668
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 2: Twelve thirty eastern?

669
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 4: Just stand alone.

670
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 3: Island game now. You know, look, I don't hate set pieces,

671
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 3: just they don't excite me. I you know what got

672
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 3: exciting today? First of all, I was dreading set pieces

673
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 3: because I knew Everton had a hug judge and it

674
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 3: was like every time the ball went in the box

675
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 3: it felt like they were going to score. And you

676
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 3: know at the under but the crowd roar when they

677
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 3: win a corner. It is amazing that that that is

678
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 3: work great.

679
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a wonderful atmosphere.

680
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 3: D cl bodying up Van Dyke Van Disney all day.

681
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 2: That was great.

682
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 3: I'm on you know people, you know you were texting

683
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 3: me in our group chat making fun of me because

684
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 3: you know Liverpool went down. Look, I'm I'm out. I'm

685
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 3: on to Arnie. You know we the the word are

686
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 3: coming to anfield next year. Arnie Slot, the manager of

687
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 3: final and now the favorite to take the Liverpool job.

688
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 3: Kind of poor man's. He's like a Walmart clop in

689
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:48,719
Speaker 3: a way. So you know what, we'll take it.

690
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, the names linked to Liverpool are not going to stop.

691
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 2: It's hilarious. So Gary O'Neil, which I thought would be hilarious,

692
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 2: you know, fired for Bourdemuth does a pretty good job

693
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 2: with Wolves, massive step up to Liverpool former.

694
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, it truly is an impossible job.

695
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I think it's almost. It's almost you want

696
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 2: to hire someone who you're totally comfortable with firing in

697
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:13,719
Speaker 2: three months.

698
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 4: Just hire Mourinho. They just do it.

699
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 3: They can't do it.

700
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 2: But the hand hands off and I can't. I can't go.

701
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 2: I can't hate and.

702
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:24,479
Speaker 3: The squad is what. Honestly, if they went for Ange,

703
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 3: I don't think he would leave, but like if he did,

704
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 3: I would respect, Okay, I was his club.

705
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 2: Right yeah, but I would be furious.

706
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 3: Well yeah, because you want to root for Ande and

707
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 3: you want to root for against Liverpool. But no, I

708
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 3: think Arnie is a perfect hire. I think you know,

709
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 3: going in that bold now, the last bald man to

710
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 3: come out of the Dutch League.

711
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, everyone said was a perfect hire.

712
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 3: I I liked, Yeah, I thought he'd do better. But

713
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 3: but also Liverpool is a much better run club than

714
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 3: Man United, so it's a very very different situation that

715
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,239
Speaker 3: he'd be dropping into. If you just watch Plan, let

716
00:33:56,240 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 3: it call Madrid and Roma and all their great European

717
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 3: nights they've had, you become an army fan.

718
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 2: Villa and Chelsea up next, this one, three pm Eastern

719
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 2: Time on Saturday afternoon's Villa plus one twenty at home,

720
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 2: Chelsea traveling at two to one plus two eighty. This

721
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 2: looks right to me. I've got nothing to go into.

722
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 2: In fact, Anthony, you're the only one with a bet here.

723
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 3: So these two teams met twice in the Cup and

724
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 3: it was pretty funny because the first meeting nothing happened,

725
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:26,840
Speaker 3: and then the second meeting it all happened. And I

726
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 3: kind of think this is a match where you know

727
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:31,799
Speaker 3: it has two wide range outcomes. But I think the

728
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 3: totals a little low at over three and a half

729
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 3: plus one fifteen. So given how little defending we've seen

730
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 3: from Chelsea in transition and how little defending we've seen

731
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 3: from Villa in transition, the fact that Chelsea should have

732
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 3: Cole Palmer back, so you figure they'll get about a

733
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 3: penalty and a half. With him in the lineup, there's

734
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,360
Speaker 3: gonna be constant spacing behind and there's going to be

735
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 3: time on the ball for Chelsea. You know, Chelsea have

736
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 3: struggled most with Arsenal. Liverpool's high pressure turning them over

737
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,399
Speaker 3: and creating all kinds of chances. Villa does not really press.

738
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 3: There's gonna be time and space for them to pick

739
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 3: out those runners on the wings, get the crosses into Jackson.

740
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,320
Speaker 3: Hopefully Jackson scores one or two because he's been killing

741
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,760
Speaker 3: Chelsea betters the last couple of weeks. But this total

742
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 3: is low for me. It should be a flat three

743
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 3: and a half, so plus money is good.

744
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 2: Okay, let's move on to the last Premier League match

745
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 2: we'll talk about that's born with in Brighton. Once again, Anthony,

746
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 2: you're the only one with a play here. It's a

747
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 2: nine am kickoff on Sunday. I have a feeling most

748
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 2: people will be watching Spurs and Arsenal, but not the

749
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 2: last Born myth plus one thirty at home Brighton traveling

750
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 2: at plus two hundred to tie here with Payouf plus

751
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 2: two to sixty. Brighton hasn't played City, So take it away, Tony.

752
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I hate to sound like a broken

753
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 3: record because I do this every episode. But Ferguson ruled

754
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 3: out for the season. Now gonna get ready for next year,

755
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 3: kind of ready to buy the post type breakout of

756
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 3: Evan Ferguson next fall. But either way, their attack is

757
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 3: running out a guy here, and like Fati is back,

758
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 3: but you know, he's played sparingly this year, and then

759
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 3: Siso is back, but he's played so little, like so

760
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 3: many of the guys that they now have healthy have

761
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 3: played so a few minutes that I just don't know

762
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 3: what we're going to get from them. And as a result,

763
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 3: I'm waiting to see how Thursday looks, you know, maybe

764
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:16,880
Speaker 3: the market and who's off of that. But there's a

765
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 3: three two five at minus one fifteen. I have this

766
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 3: total right at three, so I would like the under

767
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 3: there at that number.

768
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm a little bit interested in Born with here.

769
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 1: I want to see how Thursday goes with City because

770
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 1: I do have Born with at you know, plus one eleven,

771
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 1: and the matchup here with their hybrid press with Brighton

772
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 1: wanting to build out of the back. I mean, I

773
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 1: know Wolves is not a very good build out of

774
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:41,280
Speaker 1: the back team. But I was incredibly impressed by Bournemouth

775
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 1: today and the way they're able to win the ball

776
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:47,320
Speaker 1: in the middle of the pitch. So yeah, with Brighton

777
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 1: running out of guys, not having Billy Gilmore who is

778
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 1: incredibly crucial to their build up in finding those pockets

779
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,320
Speaker 1: of space in the middle. Like, the range of outcomes

780
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 1: here is I think far worse for Brighton than it

781
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,399
Speaker 1: is good. And they're obviously in a situation where they're

782
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 1: in the middle of the table, their managers leaving, so

783
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,400
Speaker 1: you know, especially coming off one less day of rest,

784
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: I don't hate a look at Bournemouth here. You know,

785
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 1: they're sitting at plus one thirty right now. So again

786
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna see how Thursday goes to Brighton. Maybe we'll

787
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 1: get a better price on Bournemouth, but it's kind of.

788
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 2: Like the Cherries, all right. That wraps up the Premier League.

789
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 2: We will circle back at the end of the show

790
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 2: with our favorite bets, but before we get into the

791
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 2: Bundesliga and the rest of Europe, a reminder that Wonder

792
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793
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799
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804
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808
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 2: take it from here. BJ you can go first.

809
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like RBI Leipzig. One is one forty against Dortmund.

810
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:26,800
Speaker 1: Lookhead spot with Doorman having to play in the Champions

811
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 1: League against PSG Leipzig. I know Germany's already secured the

812
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:36,840
Speaker 1: fifth spot. And Doorman has a pretty clear gap over Freiburg,

813
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 1: but Leipzig's been a really good for him one. Four

814
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 1: of their last five matches have a plus eight point

815
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,239
Speaker 1: eight expect to goldfferential. Even though they're kind of on

816
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 1: the beach per se, I think they're gonna want to

817
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 1: keep that good form going. They also present a huge

818
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 1: problem for Dorman, which we already know about, is that

819
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 1: Doorman has zero to a little ball winning in the

820
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:56,800
Speaker 1: middle of the pitch and they really struggle defending in transition.

821
00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:00,239
Speaker 1: Amir Sean is also suspended for this match, So if

822
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 1: Leipzig's gonna attack transitionally through their four to two to

823
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: two two like.

824
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 4: Dorman's not gonna be able to stop it. I mean,

825
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,760
Speaker 4: Lipstick is averaging close to two expecting goals this season,

826
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 4: and the other aspect is Doormand is not a good

827
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,919
Speaker 4: build up team. They play much better in transition, They're

828
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 4: indecisive and build up they constantly turn the ball over

829
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 4: their own end. So with Leipzig pressing them relentlessly, it

830
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:22,359
Speaker 4: just presents a really bad situation here for Dormand, who

831
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,439
Speaker 4: don't really need to win honestly, so I think they're

832
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 4: gonna have one one in the Champions League, so I

833
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 4: like Leipzig miss one forty.

834
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna take Verte Bremen plus a half on

835
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 3: the road at plus money against Ausburg fitted Ousburg last

836
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 3: week successfully, I'm going back to the well if you

837
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 3: take out red cards. Since the second half started, they're

838
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 3: a bottom four defense and so is Verte Bremen. So

839
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 3: you know, I'm not like gonna hype them up, but

840
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,120
Speaker 3: I just think this defense is super overvalued and the

841
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:51,360
Speaker 3: team has run really good. You know, they're they're like

842
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:54,240
Speaker 3: almost a full half goal better than their expected numbers

843
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 3: in the second half. So I think there's a regression

844
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:58,399
Speaker 3: coming for this Ousburg team. I said it last week.

845
00:39:58,400 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 3: We want them going back to the well, as we

846
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,280
Speaker 3: like to do on this show and taking Verte Bradman

847
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 3: plus a half at plus one oh five.

848
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:09,280
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to Syria. Ah and uh

849
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 2: bjartis started here too, over over two and.

850
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: A half in Leche and Manza. Uh Mons is a

851
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,440
Speaker 1: really interesting team because they're in the bottom half of

852
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 1: the table, and you know, typically teams in Italy and

853
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:21,240
Speaker 1: around Europe.

854
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 4: Honestly, when you're in the bottom half.

855
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 1: Table play low block transitional type you know systems, but

856
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 1: Monza actually please They've taken principles from Deserves Brighton and

857
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:35,840
Speaker 1: Thiago Matsa's Bologna where they want to build out of

858
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 1: the back. They want the opponents to press them, and

859
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:41,240
Speaker 1: then they like to get the balls outlets out wide,

860
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 1: create overloads wide white areas there, and then once they

861
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 1: get to the third face and build up, they create

862
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 1: an overload in the middle of the pitch. Is what

863
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:51,360
Speaker 1: Yaga Mata essentially does at Bologna. The problem with that

864
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 1: is is that yes, they've been okay doing that, but

865
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 1: when they play teams that are like halfway decent pressing,

866
00:40:57,360 --> 00:41:00,720
Speaker 1: which nobody really presses in Syria anymore, they they tend

867
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 1: to falter and they tend to turn involve over a

868
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 1: lot they're on final third. Leche is a unique team

869
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:07,359
Speaker 1: in in the bottom half of the table where they

870
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:09,840
Speaker 1: will press you. They are top five and high turnovers,

871
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 1: they're six and passes per defensive action. So this is

872
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:14,360
Speaker 1: going to create one of two things. Either Mons is

873
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 1: going to be able to draw on their pressure and

874
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 1: get through the first and second and get to that

875
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 1: third phase build up with numbers, or they're gonna turn

876
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:22,800
Speaker 1: it over and they're going to allow a pretty easy

877
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 1: transitional opportunity. So I think total is too low here

878
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 1: projected two point eight goals, so over two and a

879
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 1: half at plus one thirty for me in Monza and Leche,

880
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,720
Speaker 1: which is nine am on Saturday morning.

881
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:37,720
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, I don't love anything in Syria

882
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 3: and nothing jumps off the page from a numbers perspective,

883
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 3: I'm in line with the market on every game. But

884
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:45,919
Speaker 3: if you wanted to take a shot, and I'm going

885
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 3: to later on Terno plays int Inter clinch to the

886
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 3: title the seasons pretty much don and you know Terino

887
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 3: is still going to show up and defend with the

888
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 3: best of them. The thing is if it enters at

889
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 3: it defensively. I only have Terino projected forer point four

890
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:02,280
Speaker 3: to nine goals, so you know, not the most exciting

891
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 3: team to back. But again, if you get an Inter

892
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 3: team that sits off defensively and to Reno gets up like,

893
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 3: are they going to really care? Are they still parting

894
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 3: on the streets of Milan? You know that's the question.

895
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:14,279
Speaker 3: So it's officially partying in the streets season for these

896
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:16,239
Speaker 3: some of these big time favorites that are out of

897
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 3: the other cops and competitions.

898
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 2: All right, Spain, Anthony, what do you got?

899
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 3: You know, we haven't faited Sevilla as a podcast in

900
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 3: a while. BJ, what's going on there? Oh?

901
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:26,919
Speaker 4: I did on Monday and they lost or they beat

902
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 4: My Majorca.

903
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 3: So okay, so we're we lost, We're back, No, we're

904
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 3: fully in that case real Batis is plus one ten.

905
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 3: Their numbers have quietly fallen off a ton this year.

906
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 3: They have not been a very good team, but at

907
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 3: home they're still projected from me better than Seville and

908
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 3: they're only plus one ten, So I liked them in

909
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 3: this spot. Sevilla, you know, did the thing where they

910
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:47,879
Speaker 3: flirted with relegation for the first half and they had

911
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 3: like a good enough winning run to pull out of it.

912
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:53,560
Speaker 3: But their numbers are still well below league average. Batiste

913
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:57,799
Speaker 3: closer to just a slightly blow average. So raal batis

914
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 3: plus one ten in Spain.

915
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I like Myorca Toronto bett plus one to

916
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 1: eighteen on the road at Cadiz. Cadiz, this is a

917
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 1: must win situation for them. They are six points behind

918
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 1: both Myorca and South Vigo with six matches left to

919
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 1: play here in La Liga.

920
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 4: But Cadiz is one of the worst teams in Spain

921
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:23,400
Speaker 4: this season. They're horrible offensively.

922
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: They're you're just traditional four to four to two low block,

923
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 1: like just rely on a few transition opportunities and crosses

924
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 1: to create all of their chances. Myorca plays very similar

925
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 1: where they do play a low block as well, but

926
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:37,359
Speaker 1: they've played it more successfully this season.

927
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:39,479
Speaker 4: They're a better defensive team, better offensive team.

928
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 1: And what I love about Majorca is they are the

929
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 1: definition of set piece merchants. Eleven of their twenty five

930
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 1: goals or non penalty goals this season have come off

931
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 1: a set pieces. Cadiz is one of the worst teams

932
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:53,880
Speaker 1: in terms of x cheaper set piece allowed, So I

933
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 1: mean like there's a six to seven gold gap in

934
00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 1: terms of underlying numbers here, and we got Cadiz as

935
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 1: a little slight fit favorite here at home, which I

936
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 1: just don't agree with.

937
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 4: It's just must win packs because of these needs. This one.

938
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 4: So Myorica Drono beat plus twenty eighteen.

939
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 2: Okay, and BJA, you're the only one with anything in league.

940
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, actually a pretty important match for European or

941
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 1: Europa League. You open conference league spots Marseille and Longs

942
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:20,919
Speaker 1: like over two and a half at minus one ten.

943
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,239
Speaker 1: You know, lons is generally a defense that has overperformed

944
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:25,719
Speaker 1: a lot this season. A lot of that came down

945
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 1: to Bryce Samba just drastically overperforming his post shot XG.

946
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 1: But he's kind of regressed a little bit. He had

947
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 1: about six matches ago he was at a plus nine

948
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:36,040
Speaker 1: point eight. Now he's down to about a seven point five,

949
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 1: so you're seeing that regression kind of more towards the mean.

950
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:42,759
Speaker 1: Marseille is a much better team when they're playing in transition,

951
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 1: which the same thing with Lonz, So you could see

952
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:47,640
Speaker 1: a very back and forth type encounter. And I know

953
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 1: Marseille has a Europa League semifinal coming up on Thursday

954
00:44:52,920 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 1: against Atlanta, but they need to win to get into

955
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 1: a European spot for next seasons.

956
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 4: They could go on for the Europa League. Generally they've

957
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 4: been playing these very up and down matches under Guessa.

958
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 4: So like over two and a half miles win ten.

959
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 2: Okay, pretty exciting underdog partlay for us this week. It

960
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 2: pays out one hundred and fifty seven to one, Anthony.

961
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:17,800
Speaker 2: You can get us started back to back one.

962
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 3: Out of three's for US we hit a five to one.

963
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:21,879
Speaker 3: BJ hit one Saturday and then Everton for US.

964
00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:24,360
Speaker 2: So in Sheffield United was right there.

965
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:27,760
Speaker 3: Chelsea, you know, right around the corner. Just missed on them.

966
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 3: Well they was by five. Yeah, I'm gonna go with

967
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 3: Tono six to one. You know, not a numbers projected

968
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:35,360
Speaker 3: edge form me. But you know, at the end of

969
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 3: the season we get these high variants teams that don't

970
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:41,359
Speaker 3: really care if they win or lose anymore necessarily. And

971
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:44,359
Speaker 3: we've seen Inter be pretty healthy with their rotation of

972
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:46,719
Speaker 3: their top strikers at various points this season. So if

973
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 3: you get like a Sanchez and Arnovitch lineup, all of

974
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:52,880
Speaker 3: a sudden, this game becomes much more lower event. Torino

975
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 3: is a stout defensive team and they're gonna be plenty

976
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 3: interested in spoiling. You know, they got a chance to

977
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 3: say they beat the champs, so I think three will

978
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 3: be up for it. They always play hard under your

979
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 3: rich and you know Inter, We've seen this with like

980
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 3: Byron when they clinched the league really early. PSG last

981
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 3: year dropped a couple games late. You just don't really

982
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:14,719
Speaker 3: care as much. They lost a mind Byron did last year,

983
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 3: so you get these kind of spots where you know

984
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:19,799
Speaker 3: they don't quite get us up for it. The Mindes

985
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 3: game was two years ago, but you get the point.

986
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 2: All right, I'll go with Burnley. This is simple, like

987
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:28,319
Speaker 2: let's keep trying, keep poking this Manchester United team, with

988
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 2: these big underdogs. They just had a real rough and

989
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 2: tumble win, a feel bad win, as we were talking

990
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 2: about last weekend against Sheffield United twentieth place, and then

991
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:42,279
Speaker 2: right before that was the FA Cup semi finally they

992
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 2: needed penalties and an absolutely incredibly fortunate var decision to

993
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:49,239
Speaker 2: go their way to get by Coventry City of the Championship.

994
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 2: Not that complicated. Burnley fighting for their lives. I think

995
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:56,399
Speaker 2: that they give United quite a scare at the very

996
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,839
Speaker 2: least on over the weekend, BJ, what do you.

997
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 1: Got Crystal Palace plus two seventy five on the road

998
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:05,839
Speaker 1: against Fulham for Crystal Palace. They've had a real resurgender

999
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:07,880
Speaker 1: Glassner and it really just comes down to the fact

1000
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:10,879
Speaker 1: that their best two players, Elise and Esse, are both

1001
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 1: healthy and Glossner is using tactics that actually benefit those

1002
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 1: two players. He's dropping them deep in build up, he's

1003
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 1: pulling defenders out of position. He's combining with Mateta and

1004
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:23,400
Speaker 1: it's really created a really fun Crystal Palace team. So

1005
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 1: far under Glosner, they've played five matches against teams in

1006
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 1: the bottom half of the table and they have a

1007
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 1: plus four point seven expected gold deficial against those teams,

1008
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 1: which tells you all you need to know. Fulham has

1009
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:36,399
Speaker 1: just been kind of a bang on average team over here.

1010
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:38,080
Speaker 1: Over the second half of the season. They have been

1011
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:40,720
Speaker 1: playing more aggressively. They have been trying to press higher.

1012
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 1: So if they try to do that at home when

1013
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:44,360
Speaker 1: they're a favorites, which I think they might try to do,

1014
00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace is going to have.

1015
00:47:46,040 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 4: Some opportunities here with their build ups. So I like

1016
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:50,359
Speaker 4: Krystal Palace plus two seventy five yep.

1017
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:53,280
Speaker 2: Like I said Pallas, Torino and Burnley, that one pays

1018
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 2: off one hundred and fifty seven to one if they

1019
00:47:56,520 --> 00:48:00,160
Speaker 2: all come through. Onto our favorite bets for the upcoming

1020
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:02,759
Speaker 2: Premier League weekend, I'll go first because Bja, you just

1021
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 2: talked about my favorite bet. I like Crystal Palace on

1022
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:07,879
Speaker 2: the money line and it's Fulham. Think these two teams

1023
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:09,480
Speaker 2: basically a coin flip when you put them on a

1024
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:12,360
Speaker 2: neutral field, so I like that the Waite Palace is

1025
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 2: trending towards the end of the season. Everything looks a

1026
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 2: okay under Oliver Gloschner, Anthony, what do you got?

1027
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,800
Speaker 3: I'm gonna make it the square play of the weekend

1028
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:25,239
Speaker 3: because I really struggle to have a best bet this year,

1029
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 3: because this weekend, because I wanted to use Wolves, but

1030
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:30,279
Speaker 3: Bja first took them, and then also it's you know,

1031
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:32,839
Speaker 3: they're kind of a disaster. So I'm gonna be square play.

1032
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 3: Huey Lewis in the news. I'm going with the timp

1033
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,320
Speaker 3: to be square Crystal Palace plus a half at minus

1034
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 3: one twenty at Fulham. I'm gonna ride this as a

1035
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:44,400
Speaker 3: Eleasa train. I keep watching them and being impressed, so

1036
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:45,799
Speaker 3: you know what, screw it, I'm going with them.

1037
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I like Wolves even money at home against Loutontown.

1038
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:51,280
Speaker 1: We're just getting a lot of must must win texture

1039
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 1: in Loutontown, who need all three points here to get

1040
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 1: out of the relegation zone. You know, I think the

1041
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:59,320
Speaker 1: market is overweighting Wolves injuries right now. Well, Conya's back,

1042
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:03,280
Speaker 1: hang He Chan Hwang is back. Really, it's just Pedro

1043
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:05,799
Speaker 1: Nato is their main key loss right now. Otherwise they

1044
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:07,799
Speaker 1: pretty much have their full squad. They're playing at home

1045
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:09,840
Speaker 1: against Loutontown, who's been the worst defensive team in the

1046
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,879
Speaker 1: Premier League, worst defensive team in twenty twenty four. They

1047
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:15,880
Speaker 1: have very little center backs healthy. They're gonna have to

1048
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:19,280
Speaker 1: play very aggressively out of possession. Wolves has showed against

1049
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:21,919
Speaker 1: Arsenal that they have the ability to build out through

1050
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:24,399
Speaker 1: good pressing teams, especially through the middle of the pitch.

1051
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 1: And now they have Coonie available. They have that outlet

1052
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,719
Speaker 1: and that person transition who can get on the end

1053
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 1: of those final third chances. And I mean Brentford was

1054
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,080
Speaker 1: able to do that with great success, scoring five goals

1055
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 1: against Lutontown. I think Wolve's gonna have a lot of

1056
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:39,640
Speaker 1: success here offensively, and they're a fantastic low block and

1057
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:42,320
Speaker 1: transition defending team. So I like the Wolves even money.

1058
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,400
Speaker 2: All right, That does it for this episode of Wondergo

1059
00:49:46,239 --> 00:49:48,320
Speaker 2: presented by Bet three six I for bj and Anthony

1060
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 2: and Michael. Good luck with all your bets this weekend.

1061
00:49:51,080 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 2: Happy and Zach Day to all our Australian and listeners

1062
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:57,520
Speaker 2: in New Zealand as well. Hopefully you have a nice

1063
00:49:57,560 --> 00:50:03,520
Speaker 2: holiday weekend, but we reconvene over the weekend. Best luck

1064
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:04,280
Speaker 2: with all your Best.

1065
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:15,440
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1066
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1067
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler