WEBVTT - Inside the Heist Issue

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the

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<v Speaker 1>latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,

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<v Speaker 1>all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course Carol that's part of a team of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can

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<v Speaker 1>also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>by searching Bloomberg Global News. We continually, of course, update

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<v Speaker 1>you here on the Bloomberg about what's going on with

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<v Speaker 1>the virus. And I gotta say, yesterday was I feel

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<v Speaker 1>like a turning point once again, as we saw surging

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<v Speaker 1>new cases in a bunch of southern and Western states.

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<v Speaker 1>We had states reopening plans, putting them on hold, hospitalizations

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<v Speaker 1>are up. And then Anthony Faucci, the US government's top

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<v Speaker 1>infectious disease specialist, warning lawmakers that virus cases could top

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<v Speaker 1>and rise to a hundred thousand a day if behaviors

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<v Speaker 1>don't change, I can't make an accurate prediction, but it

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be very disturbing. I will guarantee you that,

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<v Speaker 1>because when you have an outbreak in one part of

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<v Speaker 1>the country, even though in other parts of the country

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<v Speaker 1>they're doing well, they are vulnerable. I made that point

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<v Speaker 1>very clearly last week at a press conference. We can't

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<v Speaker 1>just focus on those areas that are having the surge.

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<v Speaker 1>It puts the entire country at risk. We are now

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<v Speaker 1>having a quality plus thousand new cases a day. I

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<v Speaker 1>would not be surprised if we go up to a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand a day if this does not turn around,

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<v Speaker 1>and so I am very concerned. Yep, that number got

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<v Speaker 1>our attention. That's of course Dr Anthony Fauci talking to

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<v Speaker 1>senators yesterday and hearing held by the Senate Health, Education,

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<v Speaker 1>Labor and Pensions Committee, and Jason Dyer absolutely well, from

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<v Speaker 1>one of the nation stop doctors to our top doctor.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr I and Les bed are back with us, clinical

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<v Speaker 1>Associate Professor of Medicine at n y U s Linga

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<v Speaker 1>Medical Center, joining us once again on the phone from

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<v Speaker 1>New York City. So Ian, when you heard that from

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Fauci. I'm guessing it didn't shock you given how

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<v Speaker 1>on the front lines you've been on this, but it

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<v Speaker 1>has to be disappointing and a little bit scary, especially

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<v Speaker 1>given that you've been on the front lines of this

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<v Speaker 1>and seeing what's happened in New York City. Hi, Carol

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<v Speaker 1>and Jason. Yes, I think most doctors that I speak

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<v Speaker 1>to certainly are very concerned, and hospitals are concerned, as

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<v Speaker 1>they should be um to some degree. You know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think by by not really mandating you know, masks and

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<v Speaker 1>social isolation, really by giving that as an option, which

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<v Speaker 1>you know, with multiple states and in a free country,

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<v Speaker 1>that's certainly one approach. We're really, in a way, uh

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<v Speaker 1>following the Swedish model, which is letting nature take its course,

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<v Speaker 1>and when that happens, there's certainly a significant risk. As

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Fauci says, you know, cases at this point we're

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<v Speaker 1>about forty or fifty thousand a day. We know they're

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<v Speaker 1>really much higher because we're really only picking up about

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<v Speaker 1>one intent or only diagnosing one intent. There are probably

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<v Speaker 1>ten times more people who have UH COVID than than

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<v Speaker 1>are actually being picked up by tests. So we're talking

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<v Speaker 1>hundreds of thousands a day of new cases, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course that translates into potentially um higher surge on hospitals

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<v Speaker 1>and health care facilities. And this is what we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>across the Sun Belt. Yeah, it's not even it's not

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<v Speaker 1>even just the surge with hospitals, which is a concern,

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<v Speaker 1>but really ultimately a higher death rate and then what

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<v Speaker 1>I like to call post COVID syndrome. Even people who

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<v Speaker 1>get through it often have a lot of other symptoms

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<v Speaker 1>and ongoing healthcare issues. So it's it's quite worrisome. Ian,

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<v Speaker 1>let's talk about that. In anticipation of our conversation, I

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<v Speaker 1>was talking to others about, um, exactly what you're getting

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<v Speaker 1>to know. You were the first one, Jason, and I

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<v Speaker 1>can kind of almost remember the day where you talked

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<v Speaker 1>about the blood clots, you know, throughout the body, and

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<v Speaker 1>this was just not something you see often. Talk to

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<v Speaker 1>us about the implications of that and and the problems

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<v Speaker 1>that seemed to be maybe staying with some patients even

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<v Speaker 1>after they recover. Exactly, so this uh and Dr Faucci

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<v Speaker 1>has said this. He said, this is a virus with

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<v Speaker 1>protein manifestations, meaning multiple ways of manifesting. We typically think

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<v Speaker 1>of viruses perhaps as an ammonia or fever, chills and aches,

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<v Speaker 1>but this virus is unique. We we really can't think

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<v Speaker 1>of something similar where multiple organs are affected, strokes in

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<v Speaker 1>the brain, and kidney disease, liver disease, very high liver

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<v Speaker 1>function test g I disease, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, and not

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<v Speaker 1>only that, besides um killing people with blood clots and

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<v Speaker 1>and so of the latest data show that the virus

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<v Speaker 1>seems to increase a platelet aggregation or the stickiness of

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<v Speaker 1>platelets and platelets. Normally, you know, we need to to

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<v Speaker 1>cause some clotting when you get an injury or a cut,

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<v Speaker 1>but when there's a massive increase in platelet stickiness, you

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<v Speaker 1>get clots everywhere. And that probably explains a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the you know, severe consequences that we see as a

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<v Speaker 1>result of these infections. Well, and presumably that ultimately has

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<v Speaker 1>an impact on a hospital and doctor's abilities to treat

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<v Speaker 1>a whole host of things, including new cases. But also

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<v Speaker 1>this long tail, as it were, uh inn of COVID

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<v Speaker 1>exactly right, So we have the you know, the acute

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<v Speaker 1>UH injury or the the acute illness, and we're still

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<v Speaker 1>a bit perplexed why there is a number of patients

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<v Speaker 1>who have mild to to know symptoms and this is

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<v Speaker 1>that large young group of people who are asymptomatic. They

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<v Speaker 1>form a reservoir are they're often feel fine and feel invulnerable.

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<v Speaker 1>They're not wearing masks. They're potentially transferring this to other

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<v Speaker 1>people who are older, which is why you know, universal

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<v Speaker 1>masking is certainly a reasonable request for for all um

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<v Speaker 1>and then uh, insusceptible patients. You get this really cascade

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<v Speaker 1>of effects that make people more short of breath, have

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<v Speaker 1>clots everywhere, and then even if people survive after hospitalization,

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<v Speaker 1>many have a long term not only psychologic effects but

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<v Speaker 1>physical effects. Ian when do you realistically still expect a virus?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean a vaccine mother? So I you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think this is encouraging news. Fightser is one of the

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<v Speaker 1>number of companies Maderna j and j a Estra Zeneca,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, who are really moving forward. A lot of

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<v Speaker 1>these studies are going to go into phase three with

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<v Speaker 1>wider number of patients. The Fighter study is is fairly small,

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<v Speaker 1>uh you know, forty five patients or so um, but

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<v Speaker 1>it certainly is encouraging. What we don't know is in

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<v Speaker 1>a larger number of patients, how many will develop antibodies

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<v Speaker 1>that are neutralizing, how long those antibodies will last, and

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<v Speaker 1>will the virus mutate. So I think it is encouraging

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<v Speaker 1>that we're making progress. It is a unique a way

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<v Speaker 1>of making UH vaccine with messenger RNA which gets into

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<v Speaker 1>your own cells and uh UH forms these proteins that

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<v Speaker 1>are typical of the coronavirus COVID nineteen, typically the spike protein,

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<v Speaker 1>and then your body forms antibodies to that, so you're

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<v Speaker 1>not subject to the risk of a live virus. And

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<v Speaker 1>we think that this is hopefully a better way. It

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<v Speaker 1>is a relatively new technology, but again there are a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of hurdles before not only is it proven effective,

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<v Speaker 1>but it can be ramped up, manufactured and distributed, and

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<v Speaker 1>probably there'll be several vaccines using similar technology, hopefully with

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<v Speaker 1>similar efficacy. So I think at some point UH and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm thinking early, but I think it can be a

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<v Speaker 1>very bumpy road until we get there where it where

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<v Speaker 1>it's widespread, and then you have to see how many

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<v Speaker 1>people we'll be willing to take it. But since we

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<v Speaker 1>know probably twenty five million or more Americans probably have

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<v Speaker 1>the virus. Based on that one in ten, we know

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<v Speaker 1>the death rate is certainly higher than the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and twenty five or hundred and fifty thousand people

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<v Speaker 1>as going to climb much much higher. You know, we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna have a lot of shocks to the system, the

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<v Speaker 1>economic system. Uh. And I think it is this is encouraging,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's it is an early step in a very

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<v Speaker 1>long process to to turn things around. I don't mean

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<v Speaker 1>to be negative. I'm just trying to keep it in perspective.

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<v Speaker 1>We look to you to keep it real for us. See.

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<v Speaker 1>And um so speaking of which is speaking of long roads, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>the road back for New York City. You are there

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<v Speaker 1>in New York. You saw I'm sure that Major de

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<v Speaker 1>Blasio and Governor Cuomo said let's slow down a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit on indoor dining, uh, expansive outdoor dining. This is

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<v Speaker 1>a cautious reopening, to say the least. Uh, clearly informed

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<v Speaker 1>by what we see going on in the rest of

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<v Speaker 1>the country in New York and New York City specifically,

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<v Speaker 1>not wanting to fall back. What do you make of

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<v Speaker 1>it so far? The reopening? All right, this is really

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<v Speaker 1>unexplored territory. We we it's not like there's a template,

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<v Speaker 1>UH to follow. And I think New York certainly has

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<v Speaker 1>done remarkably well compared to the rest of the country.

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<v Speaker 1>We dealt with a major hospital surge, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>everyone is afraid, justifiably of either a second wave or

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<v Speaker 1>losing ground, and that would be a real strain on

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<v Speaker 1>not only the economics the hospital system, and so I

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<v Speaker 1>think we have to be careful. Certainly, we know outside

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<v Speaker 1>is better than inside. Wearing masks, having some social distance

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<v Speaker 1>certainly reduces the risk. Um and I think he's trying

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<v Speaker 1>to be prudent. It's going to be very difficult to

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<v Speaker 1>know when is the old clear signal that restaurants can

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<v Speaker 1>go back, And I think that puts a question on

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<v Speaker 1>the whole economy and um, yeah, and small business owners,

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<v Speaker 1>you know they're they're under strain. So I think, um,

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<v Speaker 1>we do need to get back. The optimal time for

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<v Speaker 1>that is unclear, and I think if there's any place

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<v Speaker 1>to begin that, it appears in New York City is

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<v Speaker 1>ready to take some some forward steps as long as

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<v Speaker 1>we track and trace and contact trace and make sure

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<v Speaker 1>we're not seeing any any recurrence or second wave right

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<v Speaker 1>and we're getting ready for that Phase three reopening. Come

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<v Speaker 1>to Lyst six um and thank you so much. Have

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<v Speaker 1>a great holiday, a safe holiday, and of course we'll

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<v Speaker 1>check in with you next week. Dr I and Lost Beat,

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<v Speaker 1>our clinical associate professor of Medicine at the n y

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<v Speaker 1>U Landgoing Medical Center. On the phone from New York City.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg business Week with Carol Mazer and Jason

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<v Speaker 1>Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Jason and I talked about this early.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the perfect beach read, social distancing beach read mind

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<v Speaker 1>you or stay cation or work from home cation read. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>there's lots of from home cation, you know. I think

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<v Speaker 1>you've a lot of sleep. I'm throwing a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>words out there. Um. It has stolen Super Bowl rings,

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<v Speaker 1>it has corporate espionage, and the most famous art heist

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<v Speaker 1>in modern history. It is time for Business Week's annual

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<v Speaker 1>Heist issue. It's a double issue, lots of stories of

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<v Speaker 1>mystery and things gone missing behind it all. Features editor

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<v Speaker 1>Max Chafkin on the phone from Queen's New York, along

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<v Speaker 1>with Bloomberg Business Week editor Joe Weber on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. Joel and Max gotta tell you we love

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<v Speaker 1>this issue, and I feel like it's what everybody needs

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<v Speaker 1>right now. Well that was why we made it go ahead, Joel. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, just the third annual Heist issue. It's a

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<v Speaker 1>huge testament to one Max Chafkin, who has become just

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<v Speaker 1>the captain of this thing. And you know, Max and

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<v Speaker 1>I just like all year long or basically like talking

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<v Speaker 1>about this issue and like putting together our our works

0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:09.920
<v Speaker 1>in progress list or whip list, and you know, trying

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<v Speaker 1>to figure out the ones that are gonna make it

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<v Speaker 1>or not make it. And you know that this issue

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<v Speaker 1>is a culmination really of that process and a huge

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<v Speaker 1>testament to him. And you know, all these UM reads.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we've always said joke that, um, we want

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<v Speaker 1>to kind of steal your summer with this issue and

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<v Speaker 1>and boy, um could we have come out at a

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<v Speaker 1>better moment in time for that. UM. So hopefully everyone

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<v Speaker 1>can you know, pack this around all summer long and

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<v Speaker 1>take their time enjoying it because the stories are just

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<v Speaker 1>tremendously good. Max, what is your favorite? I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I love them all, but the this story that Carol

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned at the top, the Super Bowl Rings pis um

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<v Speaker 1>Is is epic and wonderful. It's by Zeeke Fox and

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<v Speaker 1>I don't want to ruin the whole thing. Um, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's about a very very very committed New England Patriots

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<v Speaker 1>fans who decided, uh in basically that thirteen years ago

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<v Speaker 1>to get revenge on on the Giants, and the way

0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:10.760
<v Speaker 1>he decided to do that was by sealing their Super Bowl.

0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:16.040
<v Speaker 1>Now and it wasn't even the biggest heist that he

0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:20.200
<v Speaker 1>went math for that, you'll have to read the story. Um. Uh.

0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:24.079
<v Speaker 1>You know, you guys talked with clear Subteth yesterday, um

0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:28.360
<v Speaker 1>about her story about the Gardner Museum where this five

0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:33.560
<v Speaker 1>million dollar mystery remains, this this sort of thing in

0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:35.520
<v Speaker 1>the art world that no one has ever been able

0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:39.320
<v Speaker 1>to crack. Um. My favorite little detail about that is

0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:42.040
<v Speaker 1>we call it we've called it the case of the

0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:46.640
<v Speaker 1>Empty Frames because the museum has to keep the frames

0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:51.679
<v Speaker 1>empty on the walls because otherwise the the entire museum

0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:54.559
<v Speaker 1>would actually turn over to Harvard and they have to

0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:57.280
<v Speaker 1>keep things exactly as they were when the eras handed

0:13:57.280 --> 0:14:00.120
<v Speaker 1>them down and created the museum. Um. So it's like

0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:02.160
<v Speaker 1>a heist within a heist if they you know, if

0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:05.480
<v Speaker 1>they act out of line. Um and and the stories

0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:07.080
<v Speaker 1>just kind of keep going. There's an amazing one that

0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:11.920
<v Speaker 1>we just published today by Natalie Obico Pearson Um about

0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:17.040
<v Speaker 1>Huawei and Canada where there was once a company called Nortel,

0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:23.360
<v Speaker 1>a mysterious hack um sink that company Whahwei. It coincides

0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:25.960
<v Speaker 1>with basically the moment in time that Huawei really started

0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:30.240
<v Speaker 1>to emerge as a dominant force. And actually, uh Huahwei

0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:34.200
<v Speaker 1>ended up hiring a whole team of Nortel engineers who

0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:37.320
<v Speaker 1>basically ended up being the ones that built five g

0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:40.400
<v Speaker 1>at Wahwei. Uh. So all of these stories, it's a

0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:42.760
<v Speaker 1>way of talking. And there's another one that we'll talk

0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:45.440
<v Speaker 1>more about tomorrow. I hope um that make it very

0:14:45.440 --> 0:14:47.360
<v Speaker 1>of the moment. So it's a way for us to

0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:50.880
<v Speaker 1>be both timely and and timeless, which is sort of

0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:52.680
<v Speaker 1>one of my favorite attributes that we try and do it.

0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:55.240
<v Speaker 1>They're just so much fun. So, Max, I'm just curious

0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:57.440
<v Speaker 1>about the conversations you guys have in the news room

0:14:57.480 --> 0:14:59.280
<v Speaker 1>when you are putting this together. You gotta think about

0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:01.000
<v Speaker 1>it. It It comes out every year at least for the

0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:04.040
<v Speaker 1>last four years, so you know what goes on in

0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:05.560
<v Speaker 1>the newsroom as you get ready, you know, and you

0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:09.760
<v Speaker 1>plan for this well so I mean these are mostly fun.

0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:12.320
<v Speaker 1>Really not every story in this issue is what I

0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:15.680
<v Speaker 1>would call, you know, a hundred percent fall laugh. Um.

0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:18.080
<v Speaker 1>But but for the most part, we're talking about stories

0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:21.520
<v Speaker 1>that are fun and entertaining to report and and and

0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:24.040
<v Speaker 1>entertaining to write and entertaining to read. And so you know,

0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:26.920
<v Speaker 1>the reporters in the newsroom like this issue. It's a

0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:31.120
<v Speaker 1>it's a kind of journalist favorite and um. And so yeah,

0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:33.680
<v Speaker 1>throughout the year, you know, we're, like Joel said, you know,

0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:37.560
<v Speaker 1>we're fielding pitches, um for these stories. The Super Bowl

0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:40.080
<v Speaker 1>one that I mentioned was uh, you know months in

0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:42.480
<v Speaker 1>the making. I think we first started talking about it

0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:46.440
<v Speaker 1>in October and November of last year. Um and uh

0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:49.080
<v Speaker 1>and and and so it's it's kind of a combination

0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.640
<v Speaker 1>of just sort of over the year, uh, you know,

0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:53.640
<v Speaker 1>fielding a bunch of pitches, but then also trying to

0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:56.880
<v Speaker 1>be a little bit imaginative and think about, you know,

0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.360
<v Speaker 1>what are some what are business stories that you wouldn't

0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:02.800
<v Speaker 1>necessarily think of as a conventional heist story, but that

0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:04.800
<v Speaker 1>could be thought of that way. And and and that's

0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:08.440
<v Speaker 1>one that's like the North Tell story that that Joel mentioned,

0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:10.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, also by the way Happy Canada Day everybody.

0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:14.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the story is about a Canadian national champion

0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:19.840
<v Speaker 1>that um was you know, through its own hand, through

0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:23.080
<v Speaker 1>the market, and through a hack was destroyed. And so

0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:25.320
<v Speaker 1>it's not it's not a straight up heist, but it

0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:28.240
<v Speaker 1>is a story where there where some theft plays a role,

0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:30.840
<v Speaker 1>and there's also kind of a sort of business theft

0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:33.560
<v Speaker 1>that is like one company taking another company's market share.

0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:36.960
<v Speaker 1>So we try to take you know, a a sort

0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:38.680
<v Speaker 1>of broader view of heist. And then we and then

0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:40.440
<v Speaker 1>but of course they have to have some like just

0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:44.880
<v Speaker 1>classic you know, take the painting type type type stories

0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:47.240
<v Speaker 1>and and and we actually have two of us issues.

0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:51.880
<v Speaker 1>So so it's it's a mix Canada Dayay a zoom

0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:53.800
<v Speaker 1>cocktail party for that one a little bit later on.

0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:58.600
<v Speaker 1>So Max, just one last quick question for you. I mean,

0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:02.880
<v Speaker 1>as you odd about this issue, and as Joel pointed out,

0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:05.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, this is one that you're talking about for

0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:07.960
<v Speaker 1>months and months and months of in advance. Obviously the

0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:11.479
<v Speaker 1>world changed pretty dramatically over the past four or five months.

0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:14.840
<v Speaker 1>How does pandemic sort of infuse a project like this

0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:18.879
<v Speaker 1>other than everybody's working remotely and you're probably doing to

0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:21.439
<v Speaker 1>Carol's point just a minute ago, a lot more zoom calls.

0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:24.840
<v Speaker 1>But how does it affect it editorially? Yeah, I mean

0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:28.120
<v Speaker 1>in terms of the process, that's all the usual tough

0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:31.480
<v Speaker 1>stuff that everybody's going through. Um. But but in Turm,

0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:33.399
<v Speaker 1>we we thought a lot about how to how to

0:17:33.440 --> 0:17:36.600
<v Speaker 1>treat the pandemic because on one hand, you know, maybe

0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:38.840
<v Speaker 1>maybe people don't want to read anything about you know,

0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:41.600
<v Speaker 1>an art and art theft or something like that, because

0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:44.239
<v Speaker 1>you know it couldn't be furthest thing, furtherest from your

0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:46.760
<v Speaker 1>mind right now. And and our thought was like, look,

0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:49.760
<v Speaker 1>people need a break where people are ready to obviously

0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:52.639
<v Speaker 1>that there's there's room for um, there's room for all

0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:55.040
<v Speaker 1>kinds of stories and the pandemic. There is a teachy

0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:58.680
<v Speaker 1>bit of pandemic in this issue. Um. But we just thought,

0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:00.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, time to give people a little bit of

0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:02.960
<v Speaker 1>a break, let them let them read some read some

0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:05.560
<v Speaker 1>news and read some stories that that that you know,

0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:07.600
<v Speaker 1>don't touch on this mullable thing that we're going through

0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:10.320
<v Speaker 1>in and hopefully you know, readers will appreciate that. Yeah,

0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:12.360
<v Speaker 1>I think it's great timing. Jason and I are still

0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:15.040
<v Speaker 1>talking about the b story. We just love that one

0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:18.480
<v Speaker 1>from from last year. Alright, re up that. Go to

0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:20.639
<v Speaker 1>business week dot com and re up that. Max Chafkin,

0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:24.200
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much, Features editor for Bloomberg, the architect

0:18:24.280 --> 0:18:26.800
<v Speaker 1>of the heist issue. Or thanks as well to Joe Webber,

0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:30.959
<v Speaker 1>the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. You're listening to Bloomberg

0:18:30.960 --> 0:18:35.399
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio,

0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:40.400
<v Speaker 1>and it's time to do a little Business Week economics.

0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:43.280
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about everything that's going on in the world

0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:48.159
<v Speaker 1>of economics, Carol, because those FED minutes obviously very important

0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:51.200
<v Speaker 1>in terms of setting the tone. UM. Happy to catch

0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:54.600
<v Speaker 1>up with Winny Catalano. Yeah, he's a chief market strategist

0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.879
<v Speaker 1>of its Duyveson Capital Management, global investment strategist at Defoe

0:18:58.240 --> 0:19:01.679
<v Speaker 1>Red Mound on the phone for New Jersey. I'm being

0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:03.440
<v Speaker 1>nice to have you back with us. How are you.

0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:07.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm doing well, How are you doing okay? I'm trying

0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:11.600
<v Speaker 1>to make sense, you know, and just watching the virus developments,

0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:14.840
<v Speaker 1>watching the economy, watching the market moves. UM, and of

0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:17.439
<v Speaker 1>course we have those FED minutes earlier. You have some

0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:22.320
<v Speaker 1>thoughts about the role of the FED, in which you

0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:27.520
<v Speaker 1>talk about perpetuating a broken economic system. How so okay,

0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:30.760
<v Speaker 1>several years ago I had an email debate going on

0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:35.359
<v Speaker 1>with the then Minneapolis FED president Narayana cut up Coda,

0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:38.399
<v Speaker 1>I believe is how you pronounced his name. I asked

0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:44.440
<v Speaker 1>a simple question, is the Fed back stopping bad economic behavior?

0:19:44.800 --> 0:19:48.080
<v Speaker 1>Of course, that can happen from time to time, And

0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:52.440
<v Speaker 1>his response was an interesting one. It was that they

0:19:52.520 --> 0:19:56.639
<v Speaker 1>are appointed officials and it is not their job to

0:19:57.480 --> 0:20:01.119
<v Speaker 1>um to do to disagree with say they might disagree with,

0:20:01.200 --> 0:20:04.120
<v Speaker 1>but it's not their job to implement different policy than

0:20:04.320 --> 0:20:10.080
<v Speaker 1>elected officials, meaning politicians. And I just let that thought. Okay,

0:20:10.240 --> 0:20:12.480
<v Speaker 1>it's sunk in for a while, and then I'm looking

0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:15.280
<v Speaker 1>at the way the market has how the ft has behaved,

0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:17.959
<v Speaker 1>and the markets have behaved in the economy and everything

0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:20.280
<v Speaker 1>else over the years. And a couple of other things

0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:23.600
<v Speaker 1>sorted to fall into place, which deals with the fact

0:20:23.640 --> 0:20:27.520
<v Speaker 1>that we're in an economic system which I call neoliberalism,

0:20:28.240 --> 0:20:33.040
<v Speaker 1>which is the replacement from Keynesianism. And there are certain

0:20:33.119 --> 0:20:36.800
<v Speaker 1>dynamics and elements that happened within this economic system of

0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:43.600
<v Speaker 1>neoliberalism that involved a proactive the central bank. So now

0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:46.680
<v Speaker 1>if you put those two things together. What you get

0:20:46.880 --> 0:20:51.000
<v Speaker 1>is you get a proactive FED. Uh, not reactive like

0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:53.000
<v Speaker 1>it had been in the past. But since the mid

0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:56.520
<v Speaker 1>nineteen nineties, the FET has been proactive. It's been stepping in,

0:20:56.640 --> 0:21:01.600
<v Speaker 1>has been um avoiding, doing its best to have the

0:21:01.640 --> 0:21:07.280
<v Speaker 1>economy avoid an economic downturn. You know, recessions happen and

0:21:07.680 --> 0:21:12.000
<v Speaker 1>we end up getting these uh ten year period big

0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:15.399
<v Speaker 1>hits to the economy because they don't allow the normal

0:21:15.440 --> 0:21:19.800
<v Speaker 1>process to occur. So the FED is acting in this

0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:25.080
<v Speaker 1>proactive manner. Elected officials love that idea because they don't

0:21:25.119 --> 0:21:27.880
<v Speaker 1>have to make the hard choices. And we do need

0:21:28.119 --> 0:21:32.960
<v Speaker 1>a new economic system because clearly neoliberalism is run its course.

0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:36.639
<v Speaker 1>Just like Caijianism run its course. Neoliberalism is run its course.

0:21:36.880 --> 0:21:38.879
<v Speaker 1>We need something new, but it's not going to happen

0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:45.800
<v Speaker 1>because I called the FED the monetary uh pueterion guard. Uh.

0:21:46.040 --> 0:21:49.320
<v Speaker 1>They are the protectors of the emperor, the protectors of

0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:52.520
<v Speaker 1>the empire. Alright, alright, we got a lot of questions,

0:21:52.520 --> 0:21:54.480
<v Speaker 1>so you get it. Wait, hold on a second, So

0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:56.960
<v Speaker 1>so go ahead, James, I think you've got something. Well,

0:21:57.000 --> 0:22:01.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I have many questions, but how much of

0:22:01.560 --> 0:22:06.320
<v Speaker 1>this is crisis induced Vinny, and how much of this

0:22:06.440 --> 0:22:11.720
<v Speaker 1>was just going on before and now it's much more apparent. Okay,

0:22:11.800 --> 0:22:14.800
<v Speaker 1>everything seems to be a crisis. At least in terms

0:22:14.920 --> 0:22:17.119
<v Speaker 1>this is a big one. I think we can agree

0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:19.080
<v Speaker 1>this is a pretty big This is a big one,

0:22:19.160 --> 0:22:21.480
<v Speaker 1>and this was needed. And this is where the FED

0:22:21.520 --> 0:22:25.719
<v Speaker 1>traditionally has been reactive. It's necessary to do because of

0:22:25.720 --> 0:22:30.720
<v Speaker 1>what's happened circumstances, you know, uh, force the situation. But

0:22:30.880 --> 0:22:34.120
<v Speaker 1>in prior periods, at the end off and the early

0:22:34.119 --> 0:22:38.760
<v Speaker 1>part of when they went into the QUEUEI to infinity toolbox,

0:22:39.280 --> 0:22:40.840
<v Speaker 1>it was at a point in time in which the

0:22:40.880 --> 0:22:43.960
<v Speaker 1>financial markets were turning down, the economy was getting a

0:22:44.040 --> 0:22:47.440
<v Speaker 1>little bit weak. It wasn't necessary at that point in time,

0:22:47.800 --> 0:22:50.399
<v Speaker 1>at least from what I can tell that they had

0:22:50.440 --> 0:22:53.200
<v Speaker 1>a step in at that at that particular juncture. So

0:22:53.280 --> 0:22:55.760
<v Speaker 1>there were points along the way in which they did

0:22:55.840 --> 0:22:59.880
<v Speaker 1>things that did not allow the economy to go through

0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:03.840
<v Speaker 1>it's normal creative, destructive process, as painful as that is,

0:23:04.240 --> 0:23:06.199
<v Speaker 1>and then things build up and build up and build up,

0:23:06.200 --> 0:23:08.600
<v Speaker 1>and then something comes along a catalyst, So this one

0:23:08.640 --> 0:23:11.040
<v Speaker 1>was unusual, and then we end up with where we're

0:23:11.040 --> 0:23:13.960
<v Speaker 1>at now. All right, So Okay, we've only got about

0:23:14.000 --> 0:23:17.680
<v Speaker 1>two minutes a little bit over. So what what should

0:23:17.680 --> 0:23:19.639
<v Speaker 1>be the new economic system? And the other thing that

0:23:19.720 --> 0:23:21.240
<v Speaker 1>I need to ask you. If the FETE did not

0:23:21.359 --> 0:23:26.000
<v Speaker 1>come in after the Great Recession, after what's happened with

0:23:26.080 --> 0:23:30.000
<v Speaker 1>the COVID shutdown, I am worried about what might have

0:23:30.080 --> 0:23:34.720
<v Speaker 1>happened essentially to our economy, our market environment, um kind

0:23:34.720 --> 0:23:37.080
<v Speaker 1>of to our system. Are you saying that we should

0:23:37.080 --> 0:23:40.080
<v Speaker 1>have just let it come undone? No? Not. At those

0:23:40.119 --> 0:23:42.359
<v Speaker 1>points in time it was necessary to step in. They

0:23:42.400 --> 0:23:45.360
<v Speaker 1>did what they needed to do to stabilize the system,

0:23:45.640 --> 0:23:48.640
<v Speaker 1>to help the economy get out of a bad situation.

0:23:48.680 --> 0:23:51.959
<v Speaker 1>But then along the way it stepped in repeatedly because

0:23:52.000 --> 0:23:56.479
<v Speaker 1>of this market centric mentality of what neoliberalism is. And

0:23:56.520 --> 0:24:01.240
<v Speaker 1>so therefore the FETE is just reflecting back on ideology.

0:24:01.400 --> 0:24:03.920
<v Speaker 1>What a system that will replace it? I don't know.

0:24:04.200 --> 0:24:07.919
<v Speaker 1>I don't know what it is. I just know the process. Finny, Jenny,

0:24:08.000 --> 0:24:10.440
<v Speaker 1>you can't come up and tell me it's this huge

0:24:10.520 --> 0:24:13.640
<v Speaker 1>problem and they not have a solution. You're a man

0:24:13.680 --> 0:24:17.560
<v Speaker 1>of solutions, Vinny, Well, you know that's a great point.

0:24:18.280 --> 0:24:22.639
<v Speaker 1>What you need is what they call Erik Coffer called

0:24:23.440 --> 0:24:25.800
<v Speaker 1>a man of words, let's call him a person of words,

0:24:25.840 --> 0:24:29.680
<v Speaker 1>somebody who writes the economic theory that then gets adopted

0:24:29.680 --> 0:24:33.200
<v Speaker 1>by the person of action. And if you look at neoliberalism,

0:24:33.240 --> 0:24:37.480
<v Speaker 1>the person of words was Milton Friedman, Frederick Kayak fifties

0:24:37.480 --> 0:24:41.040
<v Speaker 1>and sixties. And then along comes roun Oreagan, Margaret Santra Boom,

0:24:41.080 --> 0:24:44.040
<v Speaker 1>it gets implemented. Those are the people of action. Listen,

0:24:44.080 --> 0:24:46.320
<v Speaker 1>I will say, I will say, and we're running out

0:24:46.320 --> 0:24:47.840
<v Speaker 1>of time, but this is one of those things we could,

0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:49.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, sit down at a bar, have some good

0:24:49.359 --> 0:24:51.120
<v Speaker 1>red wine and really talk about it for a long time.

0:24:51.160 --> 0:24:53.320
<v Speaker 1>But I do agree that there are some things in

0:24:53.320 --> 0:24:57.359
<v Speaker 1>our economic system that we know, and certainly these crises

0:24:57.359 --> 0:25:00.280
<v Speaker 1>continue to lay it out for us that we need

0:25:00.359 --> 0:25:02.879
<v Speaker 1>to look at our system and maybe rework some things

0:25:02.880 --> 0:25:06.320
<v Speaker 1>so that it works better. Vinny um, always provocative. Have

0:25:06.359 --> 0:25:09.160
<v Speaker 1>a great holiday. Nice to check in with you. Yeah,

0:25:09.280 --> 0:25:13.240
<v Speaker 1>be well. Vinny Catalana, Chief Market Strategy at Stuyveston Capital Management,

0:25:13.240 --> 0:25:15.399
<v Speaker 1>Global Investment Strategies at the Faux Red Mount, on the

0:25:15.400 --> 0:25:18.639
<v Speaker 1>phone from New Jersey. This is Bloomberg Business Week with

0:25:18.720 --> 0:25:23.200
<v Speaker 1>Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Let's get

0:25:23.240 --> 0:25:26.760
<v Speaker 1>to our next story. Emily Chason is back with us.

0:25:27.119 --> 0:25:30.440
<v Speaker 1>She's talking about what we're all doing, which is working

0:25:30.480 --> 0:25:34.400
<v Speaker 1>from home, Carol, and she is here to talk about

0:25:34.800 --> 0:25:37.600
<v Speaker 1>what we do in a green world? Can we be

0:25:37.760 --> 0:25:40.720
<v Speaker 1>sustainable while we're working from home? I would like to

0:25:40.760 --> 0:25:44.000
<v Speaker 1>be Emily Jason shed on the phone, tell me what

0:25:44.040 --> 0:25:51.320
<v Speaker 1>we should be thinking about. Yeah, hi, Green newsletter this week. UM,

0:25:51.359 --> 0:25:55.560
<v Speaker 1>I was looking at what happened when everybody works from home,

0:25:55.680 --> 0:26:00.080
<v Speaker 1>and you know, daily US carbon emissions were down in

0:26:00.200 --> 0:26:03.080
<v Speaker 1>March to early June. So just eliminating the commute with

0:26:03.200 --> 0:26:07.119
<v Speaker 1>a huge impact in terms of reducing emissions. Um. But

0:26:07.200 --> 0:26:08.680
<v Speaker 1>it turns out that's the only part of the story.

0:26:08.680 --> 0:26:11.439
<v Speaker 1>While all these people were working from home. UM. We

0:26:11.520 --> 0:26:14.240
<v Speaker 1>also talk to Google, and Google found that the number

0:26:14.280 --> 0:26:18.640
<v Speaker 1>of people searching for how to live a sustainable lifestyle

0:26:18.680 --> 0:26:22.879
<v Speaker 1>increased by four thousand five during the coronavirus period. So

0:26:22.920 --> 0:26:25.639
<v Speaker 1>people are trying to be more sustainable at home. I

0:26:25.680 --> 0:26:27.640
<v Speaker 1>love your story because what you say when it comes

0:26:27.640 --> 0:26:30.840
<v Speaker 1>to as Google searches, people are searching on composting, switching

0:26:30.840 --> 0:26:34.960
<v Speaker 1>to green energy providers. That has all become populars popular,

0:26:35.080 --> 0:26:38.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean people. I do agree that folks don't laugh

0:26:38.359 --> 0:26:42.240
<v Speaker 1>at me, Jason, I'm because I can only see the

0:26:42.359 --> 0:26:44.840
<v Speaker 1>very top of your head because sorry, I had to

0:26:44.880 --> 0:26:47.399
<v Speaker 1>stand up now. But what's interesting, Emily is we've been

0:26:47.440 --> 0:26:51.920
<v Speaker 1>having this conversation, whether it's talking about sustainability, whether it's

0:26:51.920 --> 0:26:54.760
<v Speaker 1>about race and diversity, Like we're all at home kind

0:26:54.760 --> 0:26:56.760
<v Speaker 1>of really looking or you know, what we're eating. We

0:26:56.840 --> 0:26:59.359
<v Speaker 1>talked about this with Impossible Foods the CFO, like what

0:26:59.400 --> 0:27:02.320
<v Speaker 1>we're eating, we're really looking, taking a deep dive into

0:27:02.400 --> 0:27:06.240
<v Speaker 1>our life and looking at kind of our actions and

0:27:06.240 --> 0:27:08.840
<v Speaker 1>and that plays into what you write about in terms

0:27:08.880 --> 0:27:12.800
<v Speaker 1>of sustainability. Yeah, I mean when you're home, all the

0:27:12.880 --> 0:27:15.000
<v Speaker 1>stuff that's visibility. You know, most people haven't sent that

0:27:15.040 --> 0:27:16.320
<v Speaker 1>much time in their home or it just kind of

0:27:16.359 --> 0:27:18.960
<v Speaker 1>come in and out every day, and you know, it's

0:27:18.960 --> 0:27:20.480
<v Speaker 1>spending all the time really well, what am I really

0:27:20.480 --> 0:27:22.760
<v Speaker 1>doing here? And it's very visible to you. And the

0:27:22.800 --> 0:27:25.200
<v Speaker 1>things that you can do to actually reduce your emissions

0:27:25.240 --> 0:27:28.439
<v Speaker 1>impact or maybe not that obvious, like using the dishwasher

0:27:28.680 --> 0:27:33.880
<v Speaker 1>is more energy and water efficient than hand washing dishes. Um,

0:27:33.960 --> 0:27:36.879
<v Speaker 1>using cold laundry cold water to wash your clothes and

0:27:36.920 --> 0:27:39.679
<v Speaker 1>the laundry um, says a huge amount of emissions. Like

0:27:39.680 --> 0:27:42.080
<v Speaker 1>if you talk to practor and Gamble or seven generations,

0:27:42.119 --> 0:27:44.080
<v Speaker 1>they'll say that that is a huge impact. I do

0:27:44.119 --> 0:27:47.520
<v Speaker 1>almost all my laundry and cold water really, yeah, forever.

0:27:47.600 --> 0:27:49.520
<v Speaker 1>And part of it is because it's better on your clothes,

0:27:49.560 --> 0:27:52.520
<v Speaker 1>because hot water really in terms of the colors and pigments.

0:27:52.520 --> 0:27:55.200
<v Speaker 1>So I almost always do all cold water and almost

0:27:55.240 --> 0:27:57.280
<v Speaker 1>all of my clothes. I'm sorry. And one of the

0:27:57.680 --> 0:28:00.760
<v Speaker 1>ones today we found the still read this week about

0:28:00.800 --> 0:28:03.119
<v Speaker 1>toilet paper. Um, I guess the stuff that we were

0:28:03.119 --> 0:28:05.240
<v Speaker 1>getting in the office is made of more recycled content,

0:28:05.560 --> 0:28:07.400
<v Speaker 1>and the fluffier stuff you buy at home is made

0:28:07.440 --> 0:28:10.080
<v Speaker 1>of more virgin wood pulp from trees. Oh my god.

0:28:10.359 --> 0:28:13.280
<v Speaker 1>We went so deep on that story, Emily. It was actually,

0:28:13.359 --> 0:28:18.639
<v Speaker 1>I think disturbing to our listeners because we talked at nauseam. Emily.

0:28:18.680 --> 0:28:20.800
<v Speaker 1>It was a t m I moment. Yeah, it was

0:28:20.880 --> 0:28:23.720
<v Speaker 1>just there was so much about buying habits and and

0:28:23.800 --> 0:28:26.760
<v Speaker 1>I just I'm glad you weren't listening. But it is

0:28:26.800 --> 0:28:28.960
<v Speaker 1>an important story. It's an important piece of the story.

0:28:29.000 --> 0:28:31.399
<v Speaker 1>But it's an awareness, right like we had we have

0:28:31.520 --> 0:28:34.240
<v Speaker 1>had now the soft toilet paper conversation at home and

0:28:34.720 --> 0:28:37.040
<v Speaker 1>we might have to rethink that. I mean, my husband's like,

0:28:37.040 --> 0:28:39.720
<v Speaker 1>do you really need that's love stuff? And you know,

0:28:39.760 --> 0:28:44.200
<v Speaker 1>but but we're thinking about this stuff, right Yeah. Well,

0:28:44.240 --> 0:28:46.000
<v Speaker 1>I guess you know. One thing that's interesting about they

0:28:46.000 --> 0:28:48.640
<v Speaker 1>two is there's a lot more single use classic out there.

0:28:48.680 --> 0:28:51.520
<v Speaker 1>People are seeing the masks and the gloves on the

0:28:51.560 --> 0:28:53.680
<v Speaker 1>ground and thinking, oh, well, am I using all the

0:28:53.680 --> 0:28:55.840
<v Speaker 1>classic And you know, when you limiting your commute, you're

0:28:55.840 --> 0:28:59.040
<v Speaker 1>actually probably reducing some of your single use plasticause you

0:28:59.040 --> 0:29:01.320
<v Speaker 1>don't have that coffee cut to go or anything like that.

0:29:01.600 --> 0:29:04.400
<v Speaker 1>But um, you know, the plastics industry has really pushed

0:29:04.880 --> 0:29:07.120
<v Speaker 1>but you know, their stuff is safe right now. And

0:29:07.200 --> 0:29:09.880
<v Speaker 1>a screen piece just this month put out a piecing

0:29:10.040 --> 0:29:12.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, usable bags and cups are still safe, Like

0:29:12.200 --> 0:29:15.000
<v Speaker 1>they didn't want UM people to think that you have

0:29:15.080 --> 0:29:16.680
<v Speaker 1>to do single use to be safe. You can still

0:29:16.680 --> 0:29:19.760
<v Speaker 1>wash things and they're still safe from coronavirus. Yeah. I

0:29:19.760 --> 0:29:21.720
<v Speaker 1>think we need to understand that we're on a mission

0:29:21.720 --> 0:29:23.400
<v Speaker 1>in our home to get rid of UM. And I'm

0:29:23.440 --> 0:29:26.480
<v Speaker 1>really sorry Ziplock, but Ziplock bags and things like we've

0:29:26.480 --> 0:29:28.840
<v Speaker 1>been buying a lot of those. The new kinds of

0:29:28.920 --> 0:29:32.280
<v Speaker 1>is its silicone, silicon, um, the plastic and stuff that's

0:29:32.320 --> 0:29:34.840
<v Speaker 1>supposed to be safer in terms of what the wax

0:29:34.920 --> 0:29:38.720
<v Speaker 1>paper and yeah, like really rethinking that because you can

0:29:38.760 --> 0:29:42.800
<v Speaker 1>go through so much of that stuff. Yeah, Well, it's

0:29:42.920 --> 0:29:45.120
<v Speaker 1>it's interesting to change when people change habits to when

0:29:45.120 --> 0:29:48.440
<v Speaker 1>you do that or like you know, stop buying straws um,

0:29:48.480 --> 0:29:50.560
<v Speaker 1>but you do it. It's kind of hard and Sustainbillard

0:29:50.600 --> 0:29:52.600
<v Speaker 1>to unsee it. Right. Once you see something and you

0:29:52.640 --> 0:29:54.080
<v Speaker 1>start doing it, you're kind of not going to go

0:29:54.120 --> 0:29:58.320
<v Speaker 1>backwards on that behavior. Um. So it's pretty interesting as

0:29:58.320 --> 0:30:01.880
<v Speaker 1>people adopt it and its they're going to stay home more. Um.

0:30:02.120 --> 0:30:05.560
<v Speaker 1>That just to be sort of a long term impact. Well,

0:30:05.600 --> 0:30:07.360
<v Speaker 1>and I will say, and I know you experienced this

0:30:07.440 --> 0:30:11.000
<v Speaker 1>to Carol. Kids are a great check on this, especially

0:30:11.000 --> 0:30:14.960
<v Speaker 1>teenagers who are definitely much more environmentally aware of calling

0:30:15.040 --> 0:30:17.840
<v Speaker 1>us out on you know, things, whether it's single use

0:30:17.880 --> 0:30:21.400
<v Speaker 1>stuff for I don't know, I'm just spitballing here printing uh.

0:30:21.440 --> 0:30:24.560
<v Speaker 1>In any case, Emily Chason, thank you so much, sustainability

0:30:24.640 --> 0:30:27.800
<v Speaker 1>editor for Bloomberg, joining us on the phone from New

0:30:27.880 --> 0:30:35.520
<v Speaker 1>York City. I'm bro journal Yeah, but you let me drive?

0:30:35.800 --> 0:30:39.760
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to honey? Please,

0:30:39.840 --> 0:30:43.480
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the right revel I want to drive ball,

0:30:45.960 --> 0:30:59.240
<v Speaker 1>just drive baby, questions trying. This is the Drive to

0:30:59.280 --> 0:31:06.280
<v Speaker 1>the Globe that COMMU Boomberg Radio and it's time for

0:31:06.400 --> 0:31:09.120
<v Speaker 1>the Drive to the clothes. Let's head south. Check back

0:31:09.160 --> 0:31:12.280
<v Speaker 1>in with Kara Murphy, chief investment officer for Goldman Sex

0:31:12.360 --> 0:31:16.160
<v Speaker 1>Personal Financial Management, joining us on the phone from Dallas.

0:31:16.280 --> 0:31:19.920
<v Speaker 1>Also a proud Hoya I will point out alma of

0:31:20.160 --> 0:31:23.080
<v Speaker 1>that fine institution. Kara. Great to have you back with

0:31:23.160 --> 0:31:27.520
<v Speaker 1>Carol and myself. So what's it like in Dallas right now? Well,

0:31:27.560 --> 0:31:31.520
<v Speaker 1>it's amazing how quickly we've gone to being relatively unaffected

0:31:31.560 --> 0:31:35.840
<v Speaker 1>by COVID to a new hot spot. So it hasn't

0:31:35.920 --> 0:31:39.200
<v Speaker 1>changed too much, but definitely the headlines out So your

0:31:39.200 --> 0:31:42.760
<v Speaker 1>life hasn't changed that much. Well, we've we've been locked

0:31:42.800 --> 0:31:45.080
<v Speaker 1>down since mid March. You know, I spend a lot

0:31:45.120 --> 0:31:48.200
<v Speaker 1>of walking up and down my street, not going to restaurants,

0:31:48.240 --> 0:31:51.440
<v Speaker 1>and so you know that really hasn't changed. But driving around,

0:31:51.800 --> 0:31:54.400
<v Speaker 1>you know recently you had seen definitely more people out

0:31:54.400 --> 0:31:57.800
<v Speaker 1>and about. Um, I think that's probably starting to change again.

0:31:57.880 --> 0:32:00.440
<v Speaker 1>But you know, personally we're hold up like every boy else.

0:32:01.360 --> 0:32:03.720
<v Speaker 1>So what does it mean as we you know, Jason

0:32:03.720 --> 0:32:05.200
<v Speaker 1>and I kind of kid that, you know, we make

0:32:05.200 --> 0:32:06.840
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of progress and then we fall back.

0:32:06.920 --> 0:32:08.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's certainly what we're seeing here in terms

0:32:08.840 --> 0:32:12.120
<v Speaker 1>of the reopening UM. But it's not just about the reopening.

0:32:12.120 --> 0:32:15.360
<v Speaker 1>It's about the implications it has obviously on individuals on

0:32:15.400 --> 0:32:18.760
<v Speaker 1>the economy. UM. Markets seem to be okay with it,

0:32:18.920 --> 0:32:23.600
<v Speaker 1>so there is that disconnect, But how do you see it? Yeah,

0:32:23.920 --> 0:32:26.960
<v Speaker 1>it's interesting because I think we can expect that there

0:32:26.960 --> 0:32:28.800
<v Speaker 1>are going to be a lot of fits and starts

0:32:28.840 --> 0:32:32.000
<v Speaker 1>with this virus for quite some time, so we're probably

0:32:32.040 --> 0:32:34.360
<v Speaker 1>going to have to get used to this. UM. But

0:32:34.440 --> 0:32:37.360
<v Speaker 1>when we look very broadly at the market, and it's

0:32:37.400 --> 0:32:40.240
<v Speaker 1>incredible to say this given all of the volatility that

0:32:40.280 --> 0:32:42.400
<v Speaker 1>we've seen over the last couple of months, but when

0:32:42.440 --> 0:32:45.440
<v Speaker 1>we look at the market today, it feels about fairly valued.

0:32:45.920 --> 0:32:48.120
<v Speaker 1>And one way that we look at it is, you know,

0:32:48.160 --> 0:32:51.200
<v Speaker 1>on purely evaluation basis, if you compare where we are

0:32:51.240 --> 0:32:55.040
<v Speaker 1>today to a very long term historical average, we look expensive.

0:32:55.640 --> 0:32:58.200
<v Speaker 1>But that if you isolate those periods in history where

0:32:58.240 --> 0:33:01.320
<v Speaker 1>inflation is low and stable as it is today, we

0:33:01.400 --> 0:33:04.560
<v Speaker 1>look about in line with those periods, so that could

0:33:04.640 --> 0:33:07.320
<v Speaker 1>mean that that likely means going forward, we can expect

0:33:07.320 --> 0:33:10.360
<v Speaker 1>stock returns to be about mid single digits, in line

0:33:10.400 --> 0:33:13.560
<v Speaker 1>with near term earnings growth. Um. But it feels like

0:33:13.560 --> 0:33:17.840
<v Speaker 1>we're about where we should be. So that's kind of

0:33:17.840 --> 0:33:20.720
<v Speaker 1>an amazing place to be here. And I was about

0:33:20.760 --> 0:33:25.080
<v Speaker 1>to stay June, but it's actually July. So what's an

0:33:25.120 --> 0:33:28.160
<v Speaker 1>investor to do? I mean, I I look at this,

0:33:28.240 --> 0:33:31.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, both from a professional perspective, but also as

0:33:31.080 --> 0:33:32.800
<v Speaker 1>a guy who as a four oh one k who

0:33:32.880 --> 0:33:35.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, sort of watched everything really plummet and then

0:33:35.920 --> 0:33:39.560
<v Speaker 1>come back. But I'm still worried because I see the

0:33:39.640 --> 0:33:43.920
<v Speaker 1>headlines and everything around the virus as well, you know,

0:33:44.000 --> 0:33:48.920
<v Speaker 1>I see governors and mayors being very very cautious. Uh,

0:33:48.960 --> 0:33:51.000
<v Speaker 1>and yet I see a market that's like to do

0:33:51.000 --> 0:33:55.600
<v Speaker 1>to do? Here we go? So what do you do? Yeah?

0:33:55.720 --> 0:33:58.800
<v Speaker 1>And so I think one very interesting lesson that we've

0:33:58.840 --> 0:34:01.240
<v Speaker 1>had during this downturn. And remember, like we've had a

0:34:01.240 --> 0:34:03.920
<v Speaker 1>recession in a bear market in the last couple of rods.

0:34:04.000 --> 0:34:07.320
<v Speaker 1>It's prettyful. But one lesson that I took away from

0:34:07.320 --> 0:34:10.480
<v Speaker 1>that is that this downturn was in many ways very typical.

0:34:10.960 --> 0:34:14.400
<v Speaker 1>So the speed at which it unfolded was very atypical.

0:34:14.600 --> 0:34:17.040
<v Speaker 1>What normally takes months or years took weeks. So it's

0:34:17.040 --> 0:34:19.000
<v Speaker 1>been very hard to kind of get our arms around that.

0:34:19.600 --> 0:34:22.640
<v Speaker 1>But during the downturn, we had risk assets like stocks

0:34:22.640 --> 0:34:25.240
<v Speaker 1>and hay yield greatly under perform and we had bonds

0:34:25.239 --> 0:34:27.680
<v Speaker 1>that did a really great job buffering during that period.

0:34:28.160 --> 0:34:31.040
<v Speaker 1>And then as the market started to to to re

0:34:31.480 --> 0:34:35.520
<v Speaker 1>um to re accelerate, we had the reverse of that. So,

0:34:36.040 --> 0:34:38.319
<v Speaker 1>like a lot of these sorts, like classic lessons that

0:34:38.360 --> 0:34:41.319
<v Speaker 1>individual investors should have, I think we're the right ones.

0:34:41.480 --> 0:34:43.800
<v Speaker 1>So you need to have a diverse, fied portfolio. You

0:34:43.880 --> 0:34:46.560
<v Speaker 1>might be all really excited about stocks, but they're gonna

0:34:46.560 --> 0:34:49.560
<v Speaker 1>be periods when stocks are going to greatly underperform um

0:34:49.640 --> 0:34:51.600
<v Speaker 1>and so it's really best to have a mix of both.

0:34:52.000 --> 0:34:54.200
<v Speaker 1>You sound I just want to break in. You sound

0:34:54.200 --> 0:34:56.640
<v Speaker 1>fairly enthusiastic, and I just do wonder we're going to

0:34:56.719 --> 0:35:00.279
<v Speaker 1>head into another earning cycle. Um, what do we need

0:35:00.360 --> 0:35:04.600
<v Speaker 1>to hear when companies report that support the bounce back

0:35:04.640 --> 0:35:08.319
<v Speaker 1>that we've seen in equity so far? Yeah, And it's

0:35:08.360 --> 0:35:10.400
<v Speaker 1>interesting because even just this morning we got some I

0:35:10.560 --> 0:35:14.400
<v Speaker 1>s M manufacturing data that was quite optimistic, you know,

0:35:14.719 --> 0:35:16.880
<v Speaker 1>coming in at the headline number, coming in at fifty

0:35:16.920 --> 0:35:19.400
<v Speaker 1>two point six UM. This tends to be a pretty

0:35:19.440 --> 0:35:21.960
<v Speaker 1>good leading leading indicator for the next couple of months.

0:35:22.320 --> 0:35:25.080
<v Speaker 1>And also some more contemporaneous data that we've seen in

0:35:25.200 --> 0:35:28.160
<v Speaker 1>terms of UM people getting out on the road, more

0:35:28.440 --> 0:35:31.719
<v Speaker 1>consumer spending. So I think what we're just gonna want

0:35:31.760 --> 0:35:34.520
<v Speaker 1>to see is more on the ground data confirming that,

0:35:35.000 --> 0:35:37.839
<v Speaker 1>you know, people are indeed starting to open their wallets more,

0:35:38.400 --> 0:35:40.880
<v Speaker 1>some people are getting back to work. There are obviously

0:35:40.920 --> 0:35:43.160
<v Speaker 1>some areas of the economy that are continued to go

0:35:43.239 --> 0:35:45.640
<v Speaker 1>and continue to be really challenged. You know, sing bars

0:35:45.680 --> 0:35:48.000
<v Speaker 1>are probably going to be really challenged for quite some time.

0:35:48.480 --> 0:35:52.160
<v Speaker 1>But other areas, like technology are able to operate pretty

0:35:52.200 --> 0:35:54.880
<v Speaker 1>well remotely. I mean, my business, everybody's at home and

0:35:54.920 --> 0:35:57.239
<v Speaker 1>we're just as productive as we were. So not to

0:35:57.239 --> 0:35:59.399
<v Speaker 1>say that there aren't challenges, but I think we're gonna

0:35:59.400 --> 0:36:02.319
<v Speaker 1>want to hear from companies that they're continuing to kind

0:36:02.320 --> 0:36:06.319
<v Speaker 1>of get back to a state of normal. So, Kara,

0:36:06.719 --> 0:36:10.080
<v Speaker 1>if you can generalize, what's the tone of the calls

0:36:10.160 --> 0:36:13.160
<v Speaker 1>that you're getting from clients as you talk to them,

0:36:13.200 --> 0:36:15.920
<v Speaker 1>how are they feeling? Does it depend on where they

0:36:15.960 --> 0:36:20.440
<v Speaker 1>are geographically, like what's the tone from them? Yeah, it's

0:36:20.560 --> 0:36:23.440
<v Speaker 1>very interesting because throughout this period I will say that

0:36:23.480 --> 0:36:28.080
<v Speaker 1>by and large, our clients felt okay, which again it's

0:36:28.120 --> 0:36:30.759
<v Speaker 1>remarkable given what we've been through. And I think there

0:36:30.800 --> 0:36:33.600
<v Speaker 1>are a couple of reasons for that. One is, you know,

0:36:33.640 --> 0:36:37.840
<v Speaker 1>I firmly believe that an investment portfolio, it should be

0:36:37.880 --> 0:36:40.600
<v Speaker 1>constructed in the context of a financial plan. We have

0:36:40.680 --> 0:36:42.840
<v Speaker 1>to know what's important to our clients in order to

0:36:42.920 --> 0:36:46.319
<v Speaker 1>build that plan for them. So what that means is

0:36:46.320 --> 0:36:49.080
<v Speaker 1>that we talk a lot about long term goals, about

0:36:49.400 --> 0:36:52.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, margin of error, and even though we had

0:36:52.560 --> 0:36:55.480
<v Speaker 1>a significant downturn in the market, our clients knew that

0:36:55.520 --> 0:36:57.480
<v Speaker 1>they were still on track to meet those goals. And

0:36:57.480 --> 0:37:01.279
<v Speaker 1>that's really key to sit through volatility, I have to say.

0:37:01.320 --> 0:37:03.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean that has been a point of comfort for

0:37:03.480 --> 0:37:05.560
<v Speaker 1>me at least so far as like you got like,

0:37:05.640 --> 0:37:07.279
<v Speaker 1>you know, you sort of like squinter your eyes a

0:37:07.280 --> 0:37:09.200
<v Speaker 1>little bit, like you brace yourself and you look at

0:37:09.200 --> 0:37:12.840
<v Speaker 1>the formumday you're like, okay, like maybe you know, maybe

0:37:12.840 --> 0:37:15.560
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna be okay to all of this. Yeah, amazing,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, Kara Murphy. Great to hear your voice. Good

0:37:18.160 --> 0:37:21.400
<v Speaker 1>luck down in Dallas, especially at what is certainly an

0:37:21.440 --> 0:37:24.720
<v Speaker 1>uncertain time there in Texas. Kara Murphy is chief investment

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<v Speaker 1>Officer for Goldman Sachs Personal Financial Management, joining us on

0:37:27.960 --> 0:37:30.520
<v Speaker 1>the phone from the Big d. Thanks so much for

0:37:30.560 --> 0:37:33.800
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, Southcloud,

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