1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Everybody's Business 2 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Business Week. 3 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:16,600 Speaker 2: I'm Max Chafkin, I'm Stacey Bennix Smith and Max. I 4 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 2: think the theme for this week is situationships. 5 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:21,760 Speaker 1: I don't know where this is going, but. 6 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 2: Okay, situationships as in a relationship that's kind of messy, 7 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 2: not entirely defined, source of a lot of drama. Situationships. 8 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 1: All right, Stacy, I'm gonna work with you here because 9 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:36,159 Speaker 1: but because I think you're right a little bit like 10 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 1: it does kind of describe our situation with tariffs right now. Yes, 11 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: maybe they're awesome, maybe they're not. Maybe they're legal, maybe 12 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: they're not. We've got Joe Wisenthal of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, 13 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: a friend of the pod here talking markets and tariffs. 14 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 2: Also, the Movie of the Summer is well, it's not 15 00:00:56,600 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 2: in theaters, Max, it is on Netflix. Movie of the 16 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 2: Summer on Netflix. 17 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: I'm so excited about this. I just want to say 18 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: the title. 19 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 2: I know the great Sam Sanders is here to talk. 20 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 2: Go ahead. K Pop Demon Hunter K Pop Demon Hunters. 21 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 2: Max is very into this movie, and we'll talk with 22 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 2: Sam about it. 23 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 1: And finally, I'm told it's pumpkin spice latt sas and 24 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: now I'm told Mario is love the flavor. It's everywhere. 25 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 1: Nothing is complicated about that one, right. 26 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:30,160 Speaker 2: Stacy, Except most of the ingredients are imported, so tariffs 27 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 2: are complicating our relationship with pumpkin spice lattes. It's pumpkin 28 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 2: spice tariff season now. I think right now in our economy, 29 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 2: the ultimate situationship is between companies, workers and AI. 30 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 1: And we talked about this two weeks ago on the 31 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 1: episode that Zitron, which people should check out at that 32 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: and listen to. There's all this promise with AI. We're 33 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: all a lot of businesses are super excited about it. 34 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: They're investing sing billions in some cases. 35 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:06,639 Speaker 2: Ten workers replaced by this technology in some cases right. 36 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 1: And and there's also the promise that it could create 37 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: more jobs. It's just it just feels like so much 38 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 1: there is up in the air, and we really don't 39 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 1: know anything yet except we're all spending tons of money 40 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: on it. 41 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 2: Yes, well, and I think things are changing really fast 42 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:20,399 Speaker 2: and everyone's like, is this going to take my job? 43 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 2: Is this going to help me do my job? But 44 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 2: I thought I would go to students because they are 45 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 2: tend to be more comfortable with new technology on the 46 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 2: cutting edge. So to Columbia to NYU to kind of 47 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 2: track down some students and ask them how they are 48 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 2: using AI. And here's what they said. Do you guys 49 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 2: use AI? Yes, all the time, all the time. We're 50 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 2: actually AI students students, really yes? What do you use 51 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 2: it for? 52 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: Editing? 53 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 2: So like if you write a papers. 54 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 3: It could be like as simple as just like a 55 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 3: text just to polish my language? 56 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 2: Or is it like some simple researchers. 57 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 4: I don't trust an. 58 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 2: AI on like super deep academic stuff yet. And what 59 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 2: about like with schoolwork, is it like a big helper. 60 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 2: I wouldn't say take AI with a grain of salt, 61 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:06,679 Speaker 2: because they make mistakes just like humans do as well. 62 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 2: Always double check. 63 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 1: Honestly, it's basically the greatest cheat code for college. 64 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 3: Like I'm not even kidding. 65 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 5: I do know a few people who have used AI 66 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 5: or chat GBT as kind of like a friend, like 67 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 5: getting advice from I. 68 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 4: Agree, but I definitely think that other people might find 69 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 4: more comfort in AI as a friend than what we 70 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 4: might like to think. 71 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: I study actually in the field of public health. I 72 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: studied cancer and epidemiology. We are actually working with AI, 73 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: like studying and working. 74 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 2: With it with the rise of AI, like pretty much 75 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 2: anything as possible. 76 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. 77 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, Oh my god, oh god, I'm so worried for 78 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 1: our future. Really, the AI students, well are they? Are 79 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 1: they ais or are they actual people? 80 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 2: What do you mean? 81 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 1: Well, I just got worried for a second that you 82 00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 1: had interviewed like a couple of chatbots. 83 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:03,119 Speaker 2: There was a fact at chatbot in the mix there 84 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 2: was one of the answers was a computer. It was 85 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 2: the one who said that AI was the best cheat code. 86 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:12,119 Speaker 2: I asked chat gpt to come up with, like, it's 87 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 2: like defensive AI was like if you were an a enthusiast, 88 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 2: what would you say? And you were students, So we 89 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,160 Speaker 2: said like, hey, it's the greatest cheat code. I'm not 90 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 2: even kidding. And then I used to script the software 91 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 2: program has AI voices that you can interject, and so 92 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 2: I mixed that in. But everybody else was real. Everybody 93 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:28,359 Speaker 2: else was a real student. 94 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 1: Okay, A couple of things. One is I'm glad at 95 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 1: least one person said, uh, yeah, you can't trust it 96 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 1: for everything, because. 97 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, she was one of the aid students. 98 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, well that makes sense because she's actually an expert. 99 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,279 Speaker 1: And the funniest thing about being an AI hater is 100 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: that the biggest AI haters are AI experts in many 101 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: cases because they're the ones who actually understand the limitations 102 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: of these tepelogies, whereas like people who are just like 103 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 1: you know, dipping in and out. I don't know, in 104 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,679 Speaker 1: some cases they're using it in dangerous ways, like trying 105 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 1: to trick their co host into misidentifying I think I was. 106 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 2: Doing that for illustrative purposes, not at for gas malented. No, 107 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:12,479 Speaker 2: there was no mal intent. I was just kind of 108 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 2: showing you that if that voice had been like ten 109 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 2: percent better, I don't think you would have picked it up. 110 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 1: No, Yeah, I don't know. It's super interesting. Like I 111 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: do think that the in terms of these questions of 112 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 1: new technology, they are probably like two categories that are 113 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: worth looking at. Like one is pornography because that's where 114 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 1: all new technologies seem to start, and the other are 115 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:34,480 Speaker 1: the are the youngs who are using AI. 116 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 2: Well, I chose to go with the youngs for this 117 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 2: episode because we are a family podcast. Max, you do 118 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 2: what you need to do for research, Max without a doubt. 119 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 2: The situationship I believe is dominating our economy right now, 120 00:05:57,640 --> 00:05:59,159 Speaker 2: at least this week is terriff. 121 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: I hate the word, but you're right, that is what 122 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 1: this is. 123 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:04,280 Speaker 2: And I felt like it was really worth exploring this 124 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 2: because I looked into this and since Liberation Day, the 125 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 2: tariffs have been like postponed, paused, modified, you know, enacted, 126 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 2: reacted more than a hundred times. It has been so 127 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 2: much back and forth. 128 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:19,159 Speaker 1: A lot of defining the relationship going. 129 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 2: On, a lot of like DTR talks that just seemed 130 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 2: to be going nowhere, and in the latest twist, there's 131 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 2: a big question about their legality. So Trump used something 132 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 2: called AIPA to pass the tariffs. That's the International Emergency 133 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 2: Economic Powers Act. It was in place in nineteen seventy seven, 134 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 2: and it essentially because normally Congress has to okay the tariffs, 135 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 2: this gives the president like an emergency power to override 136 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:45,559 Speaker 2: Congress and just make it happen. 137 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, and OG listeners of everybody's business will remember that 138 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:53,039 Speaker 1: we talked about this when a lower court initially invalidated 139 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 1: this basically said no, that Trump is sort of abusing 140 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: this law. He doesn't have all the power that he 141 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 1: says he has to to do these Liberation Day tariffs. 142 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 2: Right, He's claiming the trade deficit is the emergency, and 143 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 2: so our trade deficit with all these countries is an emergency. 144 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 2: The Supreme Court is now going to be hearing this 145 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 2: case and Trump has asked to fast track it. But 146 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 2: if it doesn't happen, it would mean all the tariffs 147 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 2: were invalidated and the US would have to refund the 148 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 2: money it's collected so far. It would be a mess. 149 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 2: It was very complicated. We decided we would bring in 150 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 2: someone to help us kind of navigate, like why the 151 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 2: markets are reacting to this as they are. 152 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, we walked all the way over to the other 153 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: side journey of the floor where are and found Joe Wisen's. 154 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 2: All Leaping over Desks. 155 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 1: Odd Lots podcast, which is awesome if you don't listen 156 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: to it. Joe is like one of the smartest, one 157 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: of the most entertaining people on markets. UH agreed we 158 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 1: could find and. 159 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 2: Here he is in the studio with us. Joe Wisenthal, 160 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 2: a co host of Odd Loots. Welcome, Joe, Hi, thank 161 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 2: you for having me. Well, we're very excited to have 162 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 2: you here. Especially since we are a confused Max and 163 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 2: I are confused right now and we're hoping you can 164 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 2: clear this up. So, when tariffs were first put in place, 165 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 2: I think it's fair to say that some people liked them, 166 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 2: some people hated them. The markets did not like them. 167 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 2: Sure correct, Now that they their legality is being questioned, 168 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 2: it seems like the markets do not like the idea 169 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 2: of the tariffs going away. 170 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, And amid this like ruling, Trump got up at 171 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,239 Speaker 1: a podium and the market was going down, and he said, 172 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: he said this, let's just listen, and. 173 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 6: Now it's going to the Supreme Court and we're going 174 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 6: to ask for expedited and expedited ruling because you know, 175 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:38,080 Speaker 6: when you look at the stock markets down today, the 176 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 6: stock market's down because of that, because the stock market 177 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 6: needs the tariffs. 178 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 1: They want the tariffs. Like I listened to that, Yeah, 179 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 1: and I was like, Okay, Trump's probably just saying that 180 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 1: because he likes the tariffs. But like it made me wonder, 181 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 1: is there any truth to that? Does the stock market 182 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: we can talk about the bomb market too, Do the 183 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: markets like the tariffs? And is there any aspect to this? 184 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 1: Is that he's right about. 185 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 4: I will try to maybe make the strongest defense of 186 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 4: that claim, which is there probably is some truth to 187 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 4: the idea that policy uncertainty is not great for the market, 188 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:17,680 Speaker 4: and this would clearly reinject I guess. I suppose policy 189 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 4: uncertainty on the volatility of the tariff policy is probably 190 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 4: narrower than it was back in early April, although there 191 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 4: still seems to be changes every day. So I guess 192 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 4: the idea that the tariffs could be pulled out the 193 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 4: rug from the whole thing, I would not entirely. I 194 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 4: suppose discount the possibility that investors aren't crazy about that. 195 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 4: I don't really believe it directly. I mean, the thing is, 196 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,679 Speaker 4: this market is driven by a handful of gigantic tech companies, 197 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 4: and it's mostly an AI story at this point, and 198 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 4: that is an industry in space that largely is unaffected 199 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,560 Speaker 4: by the tariffs. So the market is up a lot 200 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 4: since early April, in part because there's been some walk 201 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 4: back from the Liberation Day levels, and also because nothing 202 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 4: has derailed the AI story. 203 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 1: Now, there's one. 204 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 4: Other element that could be interesting, which is that there 205 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 4: is quite a bit of revenue coming into the federal 206 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:12,079 Speaker 4: government thanks to the tariffs. Yes, one of the anxieties 207 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 4: in markets is what's been happening at the long end 208 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 4: of developed market yield curves and sort of bond yields 209 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 4: blowing out. If there is some perception that, okay, deficits 210 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 4: are already very wide and one of the few sources 211 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 4: of growing revenue is going to suddenly disappear, maybe there 212 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:30,960 Speaker 4: could be something where people get more concerned about the 213 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 4: fiscal equilibrium and that having an effect. That was kind 214 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 4: of the story on Tuesday. Like how far I would 215 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 4: take that, I'm not sure, but I suppose I wouldn't 216 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:45,640 Speaker 4: completely say this is not a factor. 217 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 2: I mean, beyond just the uncertainty, which markets notoriously do 218 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 2: not like. It also seems like if for some reason 219 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 2: the tariffs are declared illegal, this is just gonna be 220 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 2: a mess because everybody would have to get their money back. 221 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 2: I can imagine just could sue the government for like 222 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 2: lost business or increased costs. I mean, it seems like 223 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 2: as much as you might dislike the tariffs, as much 224 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 2: as someone might dislike the tariffs, doing away with the 225 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 2: tariffs is a mess. 226 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, it would be a mess. I mean, there's sort 227 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:17,679 Speaker 4: of two things going on at once here. That are 228 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 4: both very interesting. I think longer term economists would say, look, 229 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 4: even if it's messy in the short term, tariffs are 230 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 4: bad tariffs creating efficiencies, They create all kinds of problems. 231 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:30,160 Speaker 4: They create divisions between trading partners and allies that make 232 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:32,440 Speaker 4: it hard to plan. There are all kinds of issues 233 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 4: that tariffs raised, and they would probably say, look, yeah, 234 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 4: maybe it'd be a mess in the short term to 235 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 4: dial them back, but does not compare to the mess 236 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 4: the tariff's. 237 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 2: Introduced, So better to like weadhe through the mess. 238 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 4: Yes, And I mean I think most economists would say, 239 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 4: let's just please get rid of them now. The one 240 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 4: complication I would say here is that I would say 241 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 4: that there is a perception in the United States right 242 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 4: now that we have this dysfunctional public sector and decisions 243 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 4: essentially can't get made. Things can't get built, legislation can't 244 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 4: get past, et cetera. This is because of the sort 245 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 4: of very diffuse nature of democracy, where there are a 246 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:10,679 Speaker 4: lot of veto points, et cetera, and a lot of 247 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 4: people aren't crazy about how many veto points there are 248 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 4: in American democracy, whether at the court level or the 249 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 4: local level, et cetera, how hard it is to build things, 250 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 4: et cetera. There's this frustration of stagnancy in the built 251 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 4: environment and in the policy environment. And perhaps someone would say, well, 252 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 4: if the Supreme Court undermines the Trump tariffs, this just 253 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:33,839 Speaker 4: confirms the fact that nothing can get done in America. 254 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 4: We can't set a new chart of new policy course now. Again, 255 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 4: like the ability to tariff is something that is theoretically 256 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 4: in the Congress of purview and theoretically should only be 257 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 4: used by the White House in emergency situations. The congressation in. 258 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 2: Fact invoked those emergency situations. But like for all the 259 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 2: countries in the world. 260 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 4: And Congress has not stood up for itself. So if 261 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 4: Trump is sort of usurping this power that belongs to Congress, 262 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 4: it's not like Congress has really complained or certainly the 263 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 4: Republican leaders of Congress. Nonetheless, I suppose if the Supreme 264 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 4: Court were to rule the tariffs and valid the money 265 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 4: was no longer be connected. It may feed into this 266 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 4: idea that the American sort of presidential three system of power, 267 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 4: it's difficult. 268 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 1: Well, there's also the risk branch. When we're talking about INSERTNTY. 269 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: I was just trying to think, Okay, well, what is 270 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,720 Speaker 1: the incertanty, because if they invalidated the tariffs, then like, 271 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: I don't know, it seems pretty certain we don't we 272 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:28,839 Speaker 1: don't know those tariffs. But it seems like part of 273 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 1: the risk is that Trump would somehow to ignore the 274 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:38,199 Speaker 1: Supreme Court or do some other additional thing that would 275 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: further create a sense of uncertainty. 276 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 4: And well, we're in a very weird situation right now 277 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 4: with a TikTok band where there does not seem to 278 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 4: be any legal basis whatsoever for TikTok to exist on 279 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 4: the app stores in the United States. That law has 280 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 4: not been repealed at all, but the White House uniletter 281 00:13:57,200 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 4: I said, I'm just going to not ignore it. We're 282 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 4: just not going to pay attention to the lower can 283 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 4: enforce it. But that's a very weird situation, Like, right, 284 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 4: why it's so it is it is illegal by the law, 285 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:12,680 Speaker 4: and yet no one is enforcing the ban for better 286 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:16,079 Speaker 4: or worse. But that what if the Supreme Court said 287 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 4: no tariffs can no longer be collected and the White 288 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 4: House instructed the ports to keep collecting the tariffs. I mean, potentially, 289 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 4: it's a very weird situations here. 290 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 2: I mean also, if you're running a business and you're 291 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 2: trying to figure out what to do, and you're like, okay, 292 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 2: should we if the tariffs are locked in, it would 293 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 2: be better for us to build a factory and start 294 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 2: making things here, or invest in iron mine or whatever 295 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 2: it is. But it's just hard to know if it's 296 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 2: going to get overturned or if it's going to go 297 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 2: away with the next president. It's like where do you 298 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 2: invest your money? You can't really grow and expand the 299 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 2: way you could if you had like a clear course totally. 300 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 4: So this is a really important dimension, which is that 301 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 4: the longer these tariffs exist in any form, the more 302 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 4: likely it is that they will exist forever. Because once 303 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 4: you start getting any company that is making domestic investments 304 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 4: predicated on the existence of tariffs, that company is a 305 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 4: perpetual lobbyist for the existence of. 306 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 1: A lobbyist, but like a lobbyist with a pretty good 307 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 1: case to make. We should talk about the bomb market 308 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 1: a little bit, because, like what Joe said about the 309 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 1: stock market is true, like the stock market has done 310 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 1: really well during the Trump presidency. But it could just 311 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 1: be a comment on like in Vidia and maybe maybe 312 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 1: in fact, if if there weren't tariffs. 313 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 4: Video, but we know that a huge amount of it 314 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 4: is attributable to these companies. 315 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: Anyway, keep going, yeah, yeah, So anyway, I was just 316 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 1: that's a segue for stations. 317 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 2: So since the tariff conundrum happened, since it seems like 318 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 2: the legalities come into question in a serious way, the 319 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 2: bond market has reacted in this way where like yields 320 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 2: have gone up, in other words, kind of interest rates 321 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 2: have gone up. The US is perceived to be a 322 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 2: riskier place to put your money. Yes, so what is 323 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 2: going on? 324 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 4: I guess one way to think about this question, and 325 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 4: it gets back to I think you really have to 326 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 4: talk politics, and you really have to talk about this 327 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 4: idea of whether you feel that over the next several 328 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 4: years we will still even have a nominally or truly 329 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 4: independent central bank that can set rates at will or 330 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 4: set rates sort of independent of the political cycle, regardless 331 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 4: of who is in the White House. And so if 332 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 4: you're going to put your money in the US for 333 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 4: a long time, if you're going to lock up your 334 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 4: money for a long time, you probably would like that 335 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 4: the central bank to feel. You would like that confidence 336 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 4: that the central bank will do at its job to 337 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 4: preserve the value of your currency, avoid high inflation, if 338 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 4: you are worried about the political status of the central bank, 339 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 4: if you're worried that an entity will no longer exist 340 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 4: that is committed to doing getting to two percent inflation 341 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 4: sort of whatever the cost because of something upstream in 342 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 4: the political cycle, et cetera. I don't know, maybe you 343 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 4: want a little bit more compensation in your long term 344 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 4: holdings to compensate you for this risk. 345 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 1: Well wait, that doesn't really have anything to do with 346 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: Liberation Day though, or like the tariffs, I mean. 347 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 4: Or it doesn't really you're no, no, it's totally true. 348 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 4: So it only has anything to do with it in 349 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 4: so far as all of this as a commentary on 350 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:11,120 Speaker 4: US political stability. 351 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 1: Well totally. Like if you're if you're lending money to 352 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:16,880 Speaker 1: the US government, you're like, okay, I like the most 353 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,439 Speaker 1: of those people like the global financial system as it 354 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 1: exists today, Like the US is like integrated, this like 355 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 1: incredibly successful experiment in politics and capitalism that played out 356 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 1: starting after World War Two. Yeah, and if Trump is 357 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 1: blowing that up, that makes you nervous. I think that's 358 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 1: what it is. 359 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's right, And all of these things 360 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:40,120 Speaker 4: are just sort of novelties within the American political system. Right, 361 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 4: say the Supreme Court were to say tariffs are illegal, 362 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:45,640 Speaker 4: I mean broad based. First of all, the broad based 363 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 4: tariffs on these emergency claims, that's a novelty. The idea 364 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 4: of the Supreme Court, then reversing tariffs, that's a novelty. 365 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 4: A potential dispute between the White House and the judicial branch, 366 00:17:57,800 --> 00:17:59,879 Speaker 4: that's a novelty. All of these things, right, that we 367 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 4: sort of took for granted, certain institutional arrangements. And this 368 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,159 Speaker 4: is where I get back to the FED itself. The 369 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 4: way I think about the FED is it's been encased 370 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:10,919 Speaker 4: in glass, right, and it sort of let operate to 371 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 4: do its own thing. 372 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 2: And the independence is like a little glass. 373 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:15,960 Speaker 4: But it could get shattered, and maybe it will get 374 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:18,199 Speaker 4: shattered at some point, or maybe it already has been 375 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,120 Speaker 4: shattered or at least cracked, based on the fact that's 376 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:23,880 Speaker 4: already coming under a lot of criticism. So a lot 377 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 4: of institutional arrangements which had been perceived to be stable 378 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 4: are perceived to be less stable. And once again, the 379 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 4: FED is part of that and could have a factor 380 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 4: in the degree of the payment that you want in 381 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:38,680 Speaker 4: order to keep your money in dollars long term. 382 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 1: And just to bring it back to this initial question, 383 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,679 Speaker 1: like treasury yields went up yesterday, which again kind of 384 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:48,400 Speaker 1: feeds Trump's idea that like, yeah, we need those terrifts market, 385 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: and what you're saying is this is another the story 386 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 1: is kind of the same. It's an uncertain it's a 387 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 1: certainty versus. 388 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 4: So I think part of this too, you know where 389 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 4: it's really bad is in the UK right now that 390 00:18:57,760 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 4: it's getting a lot of attention is how much they're buying. 391 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 4: Yields are blowing out at the long end, but it's 392 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:06,880 Speaker 4: really it's Japan too, and they're you know, for them 393 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 4: long term rates like one point eight percent, which is 394 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,680 Speaker 4: very low, but it's Japan, so for them that's very 395 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 4: high by their grand standard of things. 396 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: But there is this. 397 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 4: Concern I would say two concerns at least in maybe 398 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 4: three concerns within rich developed countries, which is that they 399 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 4: have unfavorable demographics, that they have aging populations that are 400 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 4: going to require a lot of resources that and a 401 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 4: lot of that will soak up and burden a lot 402 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 4: of the productive labor. Two, some combination of this burden 403 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:45,919 Speaker 4: of the aging population and then other sort of the 404 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 4: hollowing out of industrial activity, specifically because of competition with China. 405 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,480 Speaker 4: Is this fear that the productive base of rich Western 406 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 4: or you know, sort of rich liberal countries is going 407 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 4: to get hollowed out, et cetera. And then finally add 408 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 4: on to these things this sort of evident political dysfunction 409 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 4: which kind of exists everywhere. I mean, we see it. 410 00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 4: I think people perceive political volatility in the US the 411 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 4: certainly you look at the UK and also doesn't look 412 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 4: like they can get anything done. They're always having these 413 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,680 Speaker 4: very picayune scandals that seem to be at the cover 414 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,359 Speaker 4: of the paper. But everywhere you look there's similar things 415 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:22,680 Speaker 4: going on. There's these sort of stresses that are being 416 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 4: put on the sort of political arrangements. So you combine 417 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 4: all these three things together and there's sort of this 418 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 4: global story going on that is beyond just the question 419 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 4: of tariff revenue. 420 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:36,040 Speaker 2: So Joe, little known fact, well maybe not that little known, 421 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 2: but you are in a band that's right called Seek Crewsure, 422 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 2: and I had a musical questions for you because this 423 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,400 Speaker 2: is so weird. Max is going to die. But It's 424 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 2: the first thing that came into my head when I 425 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 2: read about the illegal possibly illegal tariffs, which is that 426 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 2: song by the Clash, like do I stay or do 427 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 2: I go? Oh yeah Gray so hun, Because it seems 428 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,640 Speaker 2: like with the tariffs, this is the case like if 429 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,440 Speaker 2: they stay in place, there's going to be trouble. If 430 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 2: they go away, do it'll be double. 431 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:05,120 Speaker 1: I love the setup that. 432 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 5: Was thank you. 433 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,199 Speaker 2: It's a really long setup, no, but it put I 434 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:09,360 Speaker 2: appreciate you rolling with it. 435 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:11,479 Speaker 4: I think there are a lot of things like that 436 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 4: these days, where we sort of arrive at these forks 437 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 4: in the road and we'd sort of want them to 438 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 4: never be resultd because neither of the resolutions seem great. 439 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 4: I mean, I think about this with AI. Do we 440 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 4: want the AI bubble to burst or do we want 441 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 4: AI to take all our jobs? I'm not sure at 442 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 4: this point. I think with tariffs, I look, I have 443 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,680 Speaker 4: no I'm a journalist. I have no opinion on tariffs. 444 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,159 Speaker 4: I just I just report the news and usually I 445 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 4: just ask the questions. Rarely am I answered them. Yes, 446 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 4: all of these things are very strange, and I don't 447 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 4: you know, from a sort of when you balance out 448 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 4: economics with sort of institutional stability, et cetera. I think 449 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 4: there's this feeling that we're hurtling towards genuinely uncharted territory. 450 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,120 Speaker 1: I feel like that clash song is how investors feel 451 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 1: about everything, not just yeah. 452 00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 2: I mean I feel like it also works with the 453 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 2: AI bubble too. I mean, do we want things to 454 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 2: keep going and get super overheated? 455 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 1: No? 456 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 2: Do we want the bubble to burst? 457 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:04,920 Speaker 1: No? 458 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, I gotta return, not soon. 459 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: But Joe Wisenthal, thanks for being here. 460 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 4: Thanks for having me. That was a lot of fun. 461 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 1: Shoot, I still shoot not go. 462 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 3: If you say that you on my. 463 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:24,119 Speaker 7: I'll be it. 464 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 1: Tilly En no time, Stacy. Have you seen Kpop Demon Hunters? 465 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,359 Speaker 2: Okay, Yes, this is this movie on Netflix. It's this 466 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 2: huge hit. I had not watched it until last night 467 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 2: when you your enthusiasm about this topic encouraged me to 468 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 2: watch it and I really liked it. 469 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 1: All right, So listeners to this show know that I 470 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,920 Speaker 1: have three children. My oldest is ten. I think this movie, 471 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 1: I think, snuck up on everyone who isn't ten years old. 472 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 1: It is on Netflix, came out almost three months ago, 473 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: maybe two and a half months ago. It is on 474 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,800 Speaker 1: track to be the most watched or maybe it already 475 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,200 Speaker 1: is the most watched film on Netflix two hundred and 476 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:04,959 Speaker 1: sixty six million views. 477 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 2: Definitely the movie of the summer as we're recording it. 478 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, and it is the movie the Summer, I think, 479 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 1: which is weird because there have been a couple other 480 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 1: big Netflix movies before, big streaming things before, but I 481 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,199 Speaker 1: don't think they've ever quite broken out culturally in the 482 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 1: way that this one has. And again it's not just Netflix. 483 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:24,440 Speaker 1: If you pull up Spotify their global one hundred list 484 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 1: of top songs, you got what it sounds like, which 485 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 1: is number nine. This is a musical, by the way, 486 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 1: how It's done, number six, your idol number five, Soda 487 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 1: Pop number four, and these gold bangs. So this gold 488 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 1: is a banger. It is like the hottest song right now. 489 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 2: It's on my exercising mix. 490 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 1: This movie is gonna make a fortune, and we have 491 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 1: a great person to talk about it. Sam Sanders is here. 492 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,439 Speaker 1: He is host of the Sam Sanders Show, which you 493 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 1: should subscribe to if you don't. Just a really smart 494 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:56,920 Speaker 1: cultural commentator. Sam, How you. 495 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 3: Doing, I'm good, y'all. 496 00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,880 Speaker 7: Finally got me to watch K pop demon Hunters, which 497 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 7: had been on my list, and let me tell you, 498 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 7: I was dancing in the living room with the dog 499 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:06,360 Speaker 7: last night. 500 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,160 Speaker 3: It's really cute and it's really fun. 501 00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 1: All right, So Stacy, you wanted to just kind of 502 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 1: quickly summarize the premise here. I mean, it's basically in 503 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 1: the title they're K pop stars and they hunt demons. 504 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: It's like Nake's on a plane level, like obvious. Well, okay, 505 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 1: so there is a band. 506 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 2: It's three women and they are like born like demon 507 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:33,000 Speaker 2: slayers and they slay the demons of the world with 508 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 2: their voices, which creates some kind of a network that 509 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 2: slays demons anyway. But that is also an evil boy 510 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:44,359 Speaker 2: band made up of like five very handsome men who 511 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 2: are singing for evil. 512 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 1: They're demons too. It's an animated film. It's a musical, 513 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 1: and it came out, like I said, like back in June, 514 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:55,880 Speaker 1: and I think it's snuck up on a lot of people. 515 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 1: It's snuck up on me for sure. Like I only 516 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 1: really became aware of it over the last week when 517 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,639 Speaker 1: I was on vacation and my children watched it like 518 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:06,879 Speaker 1: seven times in a row. But like, I'm kind of 519 00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 1: curious when you started to kind of hear chatter about this, 520 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 1: like when you became aware that this was going to 521 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 1: be a phenomenon, that you were going to be talking 522 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 1: about this, you know, in a professional capacity. 523 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 7: At some point, the songs kind of crept into my algorithm. 524 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,879 Speaker 7: I used Spotify mostly for streaming, and all of a sudden, 525 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,200 Speaker 7: Golden began to show up. And for the longest time, 526 00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 7: I just said, Oh, that's some new K pop band. 527 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:30,679 Speaker 7: They always got a new one over there in K 528 00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 7: pop world. Then I realized, oh, this is from a movie. 529 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 7: Then I googled a movie and I'm like, oh, it's 530 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 7: a massive, massive hit. 531 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 3: It really surprised everybody. 532 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 7: It surprised Sony, it surprised Netflix, and I think that 533 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 7: says a lot about how most executives in the entertainment 534 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:49,680 Speaker 7: industry actually. 535 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,560 Speaker 3: Don't know anything. They don't know anything. 536 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm this movie. I didn't know this going into 537 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 1: taping this, but like I guess, animated movies are really 538 00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,640 Speaker 1: expensive to make. This movie costs one hundred million dollars 539 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,080 Speaker 1: to make. Oh wow, I've read that like it is 540 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 1: gonna be a billion dollar movie, and that's a big 541 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 1: deal because it didn't have a theatrical release. Sam like 542 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 1: people who don't pay attention to this business, like how 543 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,560 Speaker 1: do you get to a billion dollars or a big 544 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 1: number for a movie that like I can go on 545 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 1: Netflix and stream for free. My kids are streaming for 546 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,199 Speaker 1: free NonStop, Like where is the money in something like this? 547 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:22,080 Speaker 1: For Netflix? 548 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,919 Speaker 7: It's fuzzy math and they'll never tell us everything. The 549 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:31,159 Speaker 7: biggest shift between watching movie and TV viewing go to 550 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,800 Speaker 7: streamers as opposed to being in networks back in the 551 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,239 Speaker 7: day and the movie theaters. Back in the day, we 552 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 7: had really distinct measures of how shows and movies did. 553 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,920 Speaker 7: There were Nielsen ratings that told you that Seinfeld had 554 00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,399 Speaker 7: thirty five million viewers a week, and box office numbers 555 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 7: that said this movie made one hundred million dollars this weekend. 556 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 7: Netflix hides a bunch of that data, but what they're 557 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 7: hoping is that this movie being so popular keeps people 558 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,920 Speaker 7: coming back and subscribe, and those subscriber fees will help 559 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:06,080 Speaker 7: their bottom line. There's also an ad tier of Netflix 560 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,920 Speaker 7: now that exists, but most people I know don't use it. 561 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:13,680 Speaker 7: So all this to say, whatever hard number they give 562 00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 7: you about this movie, it's less about that and more 563 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 7: about winning the conversation and being seen as the biggest, baddest, 564 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:22,359 Speaker 7: best stream. 565 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:25,359 Speaker 1: The subscription fees I mean is the short answer, Like 566 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,840 Speaker 1: people like this and they keep subscribing to Netflix, or 567 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,639 Speaker 1: they don't subscribe and they resubscribe because they got to 568 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 1: watch K pop demon Hunters. 569 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 2: I want to jump in here and ask you about 570 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 2: something you said earlier, Sam, which is that nobody knows anything, 571 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:40,879 Speaker 2: which I think is really interesting. I mean, the summer 572 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,160 Speaker 2: movie of the summer has always been this big deal, 573 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:47,200 Speaker 2: this big deal in business too nobody hit it right 574 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,399 Speaker 2: next Netflix seems to have accidentally hit it right, Like, 575 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 2: what's going on here? Why does nobody know nothing? Right now? 576 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:55,200 Speaker 3: I will. 577 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 7: So there's a few things going on we are seeing 578 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:00,959 Speaker 7: movie going in general. 579 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 3: Just go down. 580 00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,440 Speaker 7: There used to be a time in our youth where 581 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,160 Speaker 7: on the weekends you would go to the movies even 582 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:09,720 Speaker 7: if there wasn't a movie that you really wanted to 583 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:10,160 Speaker 7: go watch. 584 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 2: Well, Barbie Heimer happens. Not that long ago. 585 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:15,160 Speaker 3: There was the those of you in far between. 586 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, there are very few monoculture moments and movies anymore, 587 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 7: and only about twelve percent of Americans now go to 588 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,280 Speaker 7: the movies at least once a month, and about a 589 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,040 Speaker 7: quarter of Americans don't go to the movies at all. 590 00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:28,760 Speaker 1: Wow. 591 00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:31,320 Speaker 7: In the midst of this, these studios rely a lot 592 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:36,159 Speaker 7: more on IP like Barbie and other things that folks 593 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,360 Speaker 7: already know and will go see. And so if you 594 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:42,320 Speaker 7: look at the biggest performing movies of this year so far, 595 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 7: it's all existing IP, How to Train Your Dragon, Fantastic Four, 596 00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 7: Jurassic World, Superman, the Lelo and Stitch sequel. 597 00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:52,560 Speaker 3: So movie going. 598 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 7: Is going down, which means that movie studios rely on 599 00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,240 Speaker 7: old names that we all know, which means that a 600 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 7: movie like K Pop Demon Hunters, they don't know what 601 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 7: to do with it because it's new, and they're afraid 602 00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,240 Speaker 7: to take that chance and put it in theaters. So 603 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 7: there's also a really weird story about the way that 604 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:14,320 Speaker 7: Sony and Netflix made the deal that put this film 605 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 7: on Netflix and not. 606 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:17,880 Speaker 1: Any sam You want to just explain that. 607 00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:23,120 Speaker 7: Yeah, So, as I mentioned on top of Americans just 608 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 7: going to movies less, the pandemic and that era of 609 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:30,440 Speaker 7: lockdown really decimated movie theaters for a while. They're still 610 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,720 Speaker 7: bouncing back, but they're not back to what they were 611 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,480 Speaker 7: pre COVID, and they might never get there. If I'm 612 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 7: being honest, However, during that lockdown moment, a lot of 613 00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 7: movie studios said, what can we do to keep making 614 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 7: movies and not close our businesses and not lay off 615 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:49,560 Speaker 7: all of our staff. Sony ink to deal with Netflix 616 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 7: during lockdown that basically said we'll make movies, but we 617 00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,080 Speaker 7: know they can't go to theaters, so we'll sell movies 618 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 7: at a flat rate to Netflix that will then stream 619 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,880 Speaker 7: these movies on their platform and then they'll get all 620 00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 7: the rights. So K Pop Demon Hunters was a part 621 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,680 Speaker 7: of this deal, which meant that even though Sony made 622 00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 7: the movie, they were paid twenty million dollars for it, 623 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,920 Speaker 7: and Netflix got all the rights and the benefits from 624 00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:17,720 Speaker 7: having this big hit. 625 00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 1: Well the and Netflix paid to make it to paid 626 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,640 Speaker 1: one hundred million bucks to make it, and then another 627 00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 1: twenty Yeah on top of that, that was the flat 628 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 1: fee part to Sony. 629 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:29,400 Speaker 7: Yeah, yes, yes, but that means that Sony will see 630 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:33,840 Speaker 7: no upside from this movie. And even when Netflix put 631 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,480 Speaker 7: K Pop Demon Hunters in theaters for one weekend for 632 00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:41,120 Speaker 7: a special sing along edition of this film, Sony the 633 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,120 Speaker 7: movie studio saw none of that money. 634 00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:44,440 Speaker 3: WHOA to Netflix? 635 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:48,760 Speaker 1: You know, there's been this debate in Hollywood. I think 636 00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 1: over over some period of time, Sam, and I know 637 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,040 Speaker 1: you're probably familiar with this, but like we have traditional Hollywood, 638 00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,280 Speaker 1: including a lot of like filmmakers and so on, who 639 00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 1: feel like theaters are really important. Theatrical releases are really important. 640 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,400 Speaker 1: There's like a kind of cultural reason for that, which 641 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,400 Speaker 1: is like they feel like that's what a movie should be. 642 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,360 Speaker 1: But there's also like a marketing argument, which is that 643 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:11,560 Speaker 1: theaters are how you create like cultural moments, like you 644 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 1: can't have a movie of the Summer without a theatr Yeah. 645 00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,360 Speaker 2: The producers of Crazy Rich Asians turned down more money 646 00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 2: from Netflix because the theatrical release was so important to them. 647 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 1: And Netflix has been kind of like the one saying no, no, no, 648 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,600 Speaker 1: you don't need this. So so Ted Sarandos is the 649 00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 1: CEO of Netflix at the time one hundred Summit in April, 650 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:33,400 Speaker 1: which that's funny. I don't know what that is, but 651 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,600 Speaker 1: it's an event in April held by Time magazine, and 652 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,040 Speaker 1: he was asked about theaters. Just listen to what he said. 653 00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,080 Speaker 7: Folks grew up thinking I want to make movies on 654 00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:45,560 Speaker 7: a gigantic screen and have strangers watch them and play 655 00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:47,240 Speaker 7: for the the in the theaters for two months and 656 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 7: people cry and sold out shows. 657 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 3: It just doesn't happen very much outdated. 658 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:55,480 Speaker 1: So I'm kind of curious Sam, if you agree with that, 659 00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,080 Speaker 1: or if there's anything to what he's saying, and if 660 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,719 Speaker 1: K Pop demon Hunters maybe helps make make the point, 661 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,320 Speaker 1: because they did create a cultural moment in a kind 662 00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:06,800 Speaker 1: of an interesting and maybe arguably new way. 663 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:07,880 Speaker 3: Yeah. 664 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,360 Speaker 7: I mean, I talk a lot about the ways in 665 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 7: which Americans are just not going to the movies like 666 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 7: they used to. 667 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 3: It kind of makes me sad. I love movies. 668 00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:19,400 Speaker 7: I actually think that movie going does a lot for 669 00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 7: social and cultural adhesion. 670 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 3: Like it is a community experience. 671 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,040 Speaker 7: There are few feelings better than watching a really good 672 00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:28,560 Speaker 7: movie in a theater and then talking to the stranger 673 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:30,360 Speaker 7: next to you about how it was afterwards. 674 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,600 Speaker 3: I think it's good for like society. 675 00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,640 Speaker 7: So I'm sad that we don't go as much, But 676 00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,160 Speaker 7: I think that the trend lines are just inevitable. I 677 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,480 Speaker 7: tell folks a lot. I compare movie going right now 678 00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 7: to opera going. There was a time in Western culture 679 00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,360 Speaker 7: where opera was the most popular thing ever, and on 680 00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 7: the weekend you went to the opera and at night 681 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:49,920 Speaker 7: for a date you went to the opera and everyone 682 00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:53,840 Speaker 7: went to the opera, right, Opera doesn't not exist now, 683 00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,720 Speaker 7: it still exists. There are people who sing opera and 684 00:32:56,760 --> 00:33:00,440 Speaker 7: make money doing opera, but it's not nearly as dominant 685 00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:04,040 Speaker 7: as a cultural force. I think movie going in the 686 00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:07,480 Speaker 7: classical sense at the movie theater is going the way 687 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:07,959 Speaker 7: of opera. 688 00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:11,320 Speaker 2: We're all just going like people in like over dressed 689 00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,480 Speaker 2: old people coming out of movie theaters. Yea, well, am 690 00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:16,080 Speaker 2: I going to be one of these people? 691 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 1: Do you buy the marketing argument? Everything you're saying could 692 00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:23,160 Speaker 1: be true, But opera or some movie releases that are 693 00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:27,000 Speaker 1: not necessarily big moneymakers could be events that like allow 694 00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,960 Speaker 1: a project to gather enthusiasm or excitement or whatever. I 695 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 1: think there have been a lot of people arguing this 696 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:34,960 Speaker 1: is a way to signal to people like this is 697 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 1: a thing you need to see, this is a big deal, 698 00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,080 Speaker 1: like any of that. But you think that could also 699 00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:39,520 Speaker 1: go away. 700 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:41,680 Speaker 3: When is the last time that happened? 701 00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,840 Speaker 1: Probably it's like Barbie the last several years. 702 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 7: But like those were things where Christopher Nolan as a 703 00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,360 Speaker 7: director is as close to existing ip as you can 704 00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 7: get in a human being, and Barbie is a brand 705 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,880 Speaker 7: that we've all known for decades. I really think that 706 00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:00,400 Speaker 7: as movie goes the way of opera, the own things 707 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,480 Speaker 7: that will work and become cultural moments or things that 708 00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:03,680 Speaker 7: were already a cultural moment. 709 00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:05,520 Speaker 1: Before we let you go, Sam, I wanted to ask 710 00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,279 Speaker 1: you about kind of like what happens next. I mean 711 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:11,080 Speaker 1: we were talking about the money earlier, like some of 712 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,160 Speaker 1: the money's gonna be in sequels, right, there hasn't actually 713 00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:13,919 Speaker 1: been a ton of mercery. 714 00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:15,600 Speaker 2: I've not seen the last of Kop Team. 715 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,120 Speaker 1: And because this took people by surprise, like they didn't 716 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,960 Speaker 1: have enough time to like, oh really, there's some a 717 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:23,760 Speaker 1: little bit, but not as much as you would normally 718 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,440 Speaker 1: have for something like this, they're gonna be sequels. I'm 719 00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:29,560 Speaker 1: kind of curious, Sam, what you think the lessons are, 720 00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 1: I mean beyond just like we're gonna see I'm sure 721 00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:36,759 Speaker 1: copycat type stuff. What are people in entertainment? How are 722 00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,439 Speaker 1: the smart ones thinking about this? What are they gonna 723 00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:38,960 Speaker 1: learn from this? 724 00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:43,239 Speaker 7: Like, I mean, there has been a decade plus of 725 00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:47,520 Speaker 7: movie studios relying a lot on existing ip to make 726 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,520 Speaker 7: their money, so big brands that you already know and love, 727 00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,480 Speaker 7: sequel after sequel after sequel, but all the trend lines 728 00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:57,840 Speaker 7: say that this won't last forever. Most of the time, 729 00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:02,440 Speaker 7: when you extract all these sequels from ongoing IP, it's 730 00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,840 Speaker 7: diminishing returns with each sequel. That's happening with the biggest 731 00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,839 Speaker 7: franchises is in Hollywood, and so hollywoods about to face 732 00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:12,680 Speaker 7: the problem they actually need new IP. And you know 733 00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:15,839 Speaker 7: what K Pop Demon Hunters is, It's new IP. So 734 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,600 Speaker 7: I think the lesson here for all of Hollywood and 735 00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 7: all these executives is that they're gonna have to start 736 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:25,799 Speaker 7: taking chances again because the trough they're feeding from is 737 00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:29,080 Speaker 7: eventually going to run dry. How many Jurassic World movies 738 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 7: can we put up with? 739 00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:30,520 Speaker 3: Stacy? 740 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,240 Speaker 2: Don't ask that how many questions, Sam, because they answer 741 00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:35,040 Speaker 2: could be a lot. 742 00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:37,520 Speaker 1: Sam Sanders, thank you for being here. 743 00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:38,280 Speaker 2: Thanks Sam. 744 00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:42,799 Speaker 7: To everyone listening. It's good for America. Go to the movies. Yes, 745 00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:43,839 Speaker 7: Please go to the movies. 746 00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:44,080 Speaker 3: Yes. 747 00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:46,520 Speaker 2: Co sign and be sure to check out Sam Show, 748 00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,000 Speaker 2: The Sam Sanders Show. I just listened to their year 749 00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:52,080 Speaker 2: interviews so far episode. It's great checking. 750 00:35:51,880 --> 00:36:11,799 Speaker 8: Out all right, Stacey, Max, I have a confession to 751 00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:13,680 Speaker 8: make and I feel like this makes me almost like 752 00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,640 Speaker 8: anti American, Like what I hope I don't get deported 753 00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,279 Speaker 8: for saying this, but I am not a big fan 754 00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:22,120 Speaker 8: of like a pumpkin spice coffee, and I feel like 755 00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:22,600 Speaker 8: that is. 756 00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:26,359 Speaker 1: One of the institutions of this. It's as American as 757 00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:27,400 Speaker 1: apple pie and baby. 758 00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:27,760 Speaker 7: Well. 759 00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,279 Speaker 2: I have something to admit as well, which is I've 760 00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,440 Speaker 2: never actually had a pumpkin spice latte. 761 00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,399 Speaker 1: We're gonna do this whole segment without actually trying one. 762 00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 1: That's that seems harsh, but you have an underrated story 763 00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:38,880 Speaker 1: and it pertains this. 764 00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:41,960 Speaker 2: Yes, in fact, so pumpkin spic season has launched its 765 00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:45,760 Speaker 2: official and it is an economic force. The pumpkin spice, 766 00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:51,760 Speaker 2: which is apparently like cinnamon, nutmeg clothes little mix. Apparently, 767 00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:57,000 Speaker 2: visits to Starbucks go up by twenty four percent in 768 00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:02,520 Speaker 2: pumpkin spicison. People love this mix. Apparently you and I 769 00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:06,120 Speaker 2: are just in the extreme minority of non pumpkin spice. 770 00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,960 Speaker 1: But also, pumpkin spice is also what you need if 771 00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:11,640 Speaker 1: you're making a pumpkin pie, right or sweet potato pie. 772 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:15,120 Speaker 1: I love, which is a delicious thing. Yes, so it can't. 773 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,200 Speaker 2: Just be I like my coffee to taste like coffee. 774 00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:18,320 Speaker 2: I'm a purist. 775 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,840 Speaker 1: I'm just glad that Starbucks has something to look forward to, 776 00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:22,399 Speaker 1: because you know, we were talking the other day about 777 00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,000 Speaker 1: the challenges that they've had, but yes, pumpkin spice season, 778 00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:25,960 Speaker 1: this is going to be great for them. 779 00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:29,960 Speaker 2: Well it is and it isn't. So Starbucks is possibly 780 00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,880 Speaker 2: now in a situationship with the pumpkin spice latte because 781 00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:35,920 Speaker 2: not only are coffee prices up like fifteen percent over 782 00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:38,480 Speaker 2: last year, which is enormous for a number of reasons, 783 00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:41,920 Speaker 2: but all the spices in the pumpkin spice latte are imported, 784 00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:45,879 Speaker 2: and so those are all being affected by tariffs. And 785 00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:50,399 Speaker 2: the pumpkin spice latte since two thousand and five when 786 00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:53,480 Speaker 2: it started being the price started being tracked, is up 787 00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:54,960 Speaker 2: by almost seventy percent. 788 00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:56,839 Speaker 1: Okay, wait wait, break that down for us. So how 789 00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:58,319 Speaker 1: much did it cost back in. 790 00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:00,760 Speaker 2: Uh, three dollars in thirty five cents? 791 00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:02,200 Speaker 1: Okay, now it is. 792 00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:06,280 Speaker 2: It's like around seven dollars and fifty cents eight bucks. 793 00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:08,680 Speaker 1: And that's before these tariffs kicked in. 794 00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:12,319 Speaker 2: Well, the tariffs may have slightly kicked in. I don't 795 00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:16,120 Speaker 2: know if Starbucks has been stockpiling pumpkin spices. One can 796 00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,839 Speaker 2: only imagine that when they saw this coming, they were like, 797 00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,640 Speaker 2: you know, it's a very important thing, but you know, 798 00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:27,319 Speaker 2: if these tariffs get locked into place, all these spices, cinnamon, nutmeg, cloves, like, 799 00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:28,960 Speaker 2: we do not grow them in the US. 800 00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:30,800 Speaker 1: So they're mostly coming from Asia. 801 00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:34,720 Speaker 2: I think, yes, India and Indonesia, and like the places 802 00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:38,120 Speaker 2: where the spices come from are all being hit by tariffs. 803 00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:42,200 Speaker 1: I find it funny there's so much political discourse right 804 00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:45,520 Speaker 1: now where you have sort of like Democrats saying these 805 00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:47,960 Speaker 1: tariffs are are really bad and Republicans say, no, they're 806 00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,920 Speaker 1: not bad, and it's like, well, we don't really have 807 00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,560 Speaker 1: to argue about it. You can just look at the 808 00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:55,680 Speaker 1: prices of certain goods and like they're going up, I mean, 809 00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,160 Speaker 1: and you can sort of debate whether or not that's 810 00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,239 Speaker 1: a big price increase with that's like a politically a problem, 811 00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:02,880 Speaker 1: Like there are a bunch of debates you can have 812 00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,080 Speaker 1: about it, but like the prices don't really. 813 00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:08,959 Speaker 2: Lie unless you think Max that coffee is the only 814 00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:12,080 Speaker 2: thing on the line here. I would just like to 815 00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:17,760 Speaker 2: pose it that pumpkin spice has now infiltrated almost every 816 00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:23,160 Speaker 2: corner of consumer culture. There is pumpkin spice, cup of noodles. 817 00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:32,600 Speaker 2: Oh god, there is pumpkin spice spam. There are pumpkin spice, doritos, slurpies, hummus, ramen, pringles, 818 00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:37,200 Speaker 2: cough drops, my personal favorite, cat litter. There's poppins spice, 819 00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:42,760 Speaker 2: cat litter. It's everywhere, everywhere. I mean, imagine the pumpkin 820 00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:47,560 Speaker 2: spice inflation alone. The economic impact is going to reverberate 821 00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:49,080 Speaker 2: earthquake style. 822 00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:51,200 Speaker 1: Through the we had. If we had like Scott Bessen here, 823 00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,640 Speaker 1: he would say, look, the President is just trying to 824 00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:58,920 Speaker 1: reorient the US economy away from pumpkin spice, and I 825 00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:00,920 Speaker 1: would say, amen to that. 826 00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,400 Speaker 2: You're all for it. You're not going to start drinking 827 00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:04,920 Speaker 2: pumpkins spice, lattes. 828 00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:15,160 Speaker 1: Or cat litter. All right, Stacey, Before we go, I 829 00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:18,360 Speaker 1: gotta just read some of the emails we got to 830 00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:19,919 Speaker 1: the A I think I met. 831 00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:21,960 Speaker 2: We got a lot this one, we should say. This 832 00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:23,760 Speaker 2: show was we had. 833 00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:29,920 Speaker 1: On Exitron noted Ai Hater, really awesome conversation about mentioned 834 00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,400 Speaker 1: it at the top of about sort of the ways 835 00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,520 Speaker 1: in which no matter how excited you are about this stuff, 836 00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:37,760 Speaker 1: there are there seem to be some real economic. 837 00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:40,160 Speaker 2: It's possibly very overvalued in a way that could crash 838 00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:40,279 Speaker 2: they and. 839 00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:44,520 Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, Stacey, we got some some haters 840 00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:48,239 Speaker 1: listening to this show. So Rick wrote in complaining that 841 00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,680 Speaker 1: I don't use it unless it's forced upon me. Take 842 00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:56,320 Speaker 1: that college students, complaining essentially about the electricity, the water usage, 843 00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:00,319 Speaker 1: and like the fact that as a consumer you don't 844 00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:03,520 Speaker 1: always get value. Talking about customer service phones being converted 845 00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:06,640 Speaker 1: over to AI. He complained about doctor's offices, which actually 846 00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:10,879 Speaker 1: came up in another note from another correspondent I think 847 00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:15,160 Speaker 1: his name is Yoshin, but wrote in complaining about basically 848 00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:17,920 Speaker 1: having his doctor's office put him in touch with like 849 00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:22,160 Speaker 1: an AI agent and that feeling really interesting, Haley, Icky. 850 00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:25,719 Speaker 1: I mean, the most interesting note we got was a 851 00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:30,440 Speaker 1: sort of lengthy one from Josh, who is by his 852 00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:35,600 Speaker 1: account anyway, a Carnegie Mellon trained machine learning engineer, and 853 00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:39,359 Speaker 1: he's basically saying like, Although he wrote, well, I don't 854 00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:41,719 Speaker 1: always agree with Ed's approach to arguing against the current 855 00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:45,080 Speaker 1: hysteria gripping markets around AI, he's right about the fundamental 856 00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:48,000 Speaker 1: disconnect between hype and reality. I don't see this to 857 00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:50,960 Speaker 1: mean that there's no utility in LMS. There are clearly 858 00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,720 Speaker 1: are narrow applications where they provide value. However, the ROI 859 00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:57,040 Speaker 1: is highly suspect given the capital required to produce what 860 00:41:57,080 --> 00:42:00,880 Speaker 1: will likely remember as the twenty first century lies. Now, 861 00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:02,360 Speaker 1: I had to twenty. 862 00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:05,480 Speaker 2: First century Eliza look as in like Eliza Doolittle. 863 00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:10,560 Speaker 1: No, Eliza was a a like very early chatbot from 864 00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:13,279 Speaker 1: like the nineteen sixties. Okay, and I had to I 865 00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,359 Speaker 1: had to google that. But I mean again, it didn't I. 866 00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,919 Speaker 2: Was all in my fair lady, I was, you know. 867 00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:21,719 Speaker 1: But anyway, awesome emails all around on this topic, like 868 00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:25,280 Speaker 1: keep them coming. I think we really liked that conversation. 869 00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,279 Speaker 1: In particular. We're gonna, as we said on the other one, 870 00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:29,080 Speaker 1: we're going to try to keep coming back to this topic. 871 00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:32,360 Speaker 1: So so keep sending us ideas examples. Let us know 872 00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,200 Speaker 1: what you thought of K pop demon Hunters, what it 873 00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:37,120 Speaker 1: could tell you about what we can learn from Hollywood. 874 00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:40,640 Speaker 1: That's everybody's at Bloomberg dot net. Everybody's with an ass 875 00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:41,640 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot net. 876 00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:44,280 Speaker 2: Do you still consider yourself an AI skeptic? 877 00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,240 Speaker 1: I feel like everyone should be an AI skeptic, especially 878 00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:50,280 Speaker 1: if you're a journalist, Like journalists by nature are supposed 879 00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,960 Speaker 1: to be skeptical of everything. I try not to use 880 00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:54,680 Speaker 1: AI because I think it's going to actually make me 881 00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:57,200 Speaker 1: a worse writer, and I think that everyone is kind 882 00:42:57,200 --> 00:42:58,640 Speaker 1: of melting their brains a little bit. 883 00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:00,920 Speaker 2: Well, you wouldn't want us to put it on the 884 00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:02,560 Speaker 2: show or give it a job on the show. 885 00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:04,840 Speaker 1: Definitely not what we should probably do. 886 00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:05,440 Speaker 2: The credits. 887 00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:10,920 Speaker 1: This show is produced by Stacy Wong. 888 00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:14,600 Speaker 2: Magnus Henrickson is our supervising producer, and Amy Keen is 889 00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:15,160 Speaker 2: our editor. 890 00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,680 Speaker 4: We get engineering from Blake Maples and Dave Purcell, fact 891 00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:23,680 Speaker 4: checks Sage baumanheads Bloomberg Podcasts Special thanks to Jeff Muscus, 892 00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:25,520 Speaker 4: Julia Rubin and Maria. 893 00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:27,920 Speaker 1: Ling, who are these voices. If you have a minute, 894 00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:29,319 Speaker 1: please rate and review the show. 895 00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:30,640 Speaker 3: It means a lot to us. 896 00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,840 Speaker 1: If you do, Max will drink a Venti Pumpkin spice 897 00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:36,960 Speaker 1: latte during next week's show. This will be enforced. 898 00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:41,280 Speaker 5: And if you have a story that should be our business, 899 00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:46,919 Speaker 5: email us at everybody sat Bloomberg dot net. That's everybody 900 00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:50,880 Speaker 5: with an S said Bloomberg dot net. Thank you for listening. 901 00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:52,320 Speaker 5: See you next week. 902 00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:56,440 Speaker 2: Resistance is feudal max check you will be assimilated, accept 903 00:43:56,440 --> 00:44:01,120 Speaker 2: your fate I would like to to think, uh, the 904 00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:05,320 Speaker 2: descript AI generated voices that contributed to this, including Owen 905 00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:07,799 Speaker 2: and Grace, they contributed to them. 906 00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:12,240 Speaker 1: They're not voices, they're just mathematical models. It's an auto computer. 907 00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:16,080 Speaker 2: They have to drink of spice latte if somebody reviews 908 00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:18,360 Speaker 2: the show, so that's that's interesting.