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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show.

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Speaker 1: We have a number of important reports coming out of Israel.

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Speaker 1: This one I've referenced a couple times. Let's put this

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Speaker 1: up on the screen. So this is from Lancett, which

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Speaker 1: is widely respected medical journal. And there's always been this

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Speaker 1: question of what the true death toll in Gaza actually is.

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Speaker 1: And there have been concerted efforts to deny the reports

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Speaker 1: of the deaths coming out of Gaza because the only

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Speaker 1: people who are available to count the dead is the

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Speaker 1: Gaza Health Ministry, which they love to call the Hamas

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Speaker 1: run Gaza health industry. Now, their numbers have been pretty

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Speaker 1: accurate in the past. However, according to these experts, they say,

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Speaker 1: if you look at past conflicts and you look at

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Speaker 1: the level of devastation and destruction of infrastructure in medical care, etc.

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Speaker 1: In Gaza, they say, applying a conservative estimate of four

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Speaker 1: indirect deaths per one direct death to the thirty seven

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Speaker 1: three hundred ninety six deaths reporting, which by the way,

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Speaker 1: doesn't include those buried under the rubble, it's not implausible

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Speaker 1: to estimate that up to one hundred and eighty six

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Speaker 1: thousand or even more deaths could be attributable to the

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Speaker 1: current conflict in Gaza. That they describe this as a

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Speaker 1: conservative estimate. In past conflicts, the ratio of direct deaths

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Speaker 1: to indirect has been up to fifteen. It's certainly possible

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Speaker 1: in Gaza. We're seeing that level, just again, given the

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Speaker 1: level of destruction. As I mentioned before, this does not

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Speaker 1: even include those who are considered to be buried under

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Speaker 1: the rubble, which is about another ten thousand individuals. But

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Speaker 1: even with this conservative estimate, you're talking about about eight

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Speaker 1: percent of the population of Gaza that has been killed

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Speaker 1: in this conflict.

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Speaker 4: Eight percent.

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Speaker 1: So you know, we've even had the White House denying

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Speaker 1: the death toll, You've had members of Congress directly denying

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Speaker 1: the death toll, and we've been saying all along that

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Speaker 1: if anything, it is very likely the number of deaths

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Speaker 1: are being understated. Now you have a medical journal publishing

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Speaker 1: an analysis exactly to that effect that you could have

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Speaker 1: somewhere around eight percent of the entire Palestinian population in

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Speaker 1: Gaza that has been killed.

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Speaker 2: Sober well, it would be abnormal that it would be

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Speaker 2: only thirty seven. It doesn't take a genius, you know,

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Speaker 2: to figure it out and do what from famine, hunger conditions, sanitation, sanitation,

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Speaker 2: and mass placement, I mean yeah, exactly. Even in a

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Speaker 2: normal in any place, even if there was no bombing

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Speaker 2: or anything going on, if you forcibly take people over

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Speaker 2: what one point eight million or something and move them

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Speaker 2: out of their homes, a lot of people are going

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Speaker 2: to die, people who are old, people in the medical condition,

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Speaker 2: access to medicine, etc.

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Speaker 3: At war.

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Speaker 2: On top of that, it's very much like what happened

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Speaker 2: in the US invasion of Iraq, where we would estimate

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Speaker 2: the death tolls and then the eventual real tally that

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Speaker 2: came out a decade later was almost ten times the

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Speaker 2: initial number that was estimated, specifically for these reasons was

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Speaker 2: massive placement, the bombing campaign and elsewhere. So it only

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Speaker 2: I think, only confirms what I think a lot of

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Speaker 2: people already know.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think it'll be years before we really

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Speaker 1: know the toll. And that's also common in conflicts, and

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Speaker 1: especially here you've had the Israeli government which has denied

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Speaker 1: any independent access to be able to assess the toll,

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Speaker 1: and then they then deny that the death toll even

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Speaker 1: though they prohibit anyone else from being able to come

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Speaker 1: in and assess the situation themselves. So, you know, for

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Speaker 1: those who have long suspected that the death toll is

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Speaker 1: quite a lot larger than the official numbers, I think

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Speaker 1: this provides a lot of confirmation for that. At the

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Speaker 1: same time, for those who have been being raked across

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Speaker 1: the cools, we're talking about the Hannibal directive from the beginning,

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Speaker 1: even though in the New York Times indicated that the

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Speaker 1: Hannibal directive had been used at least in one instance,

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Speaker 1: you now have Harats with some blockbuster reporting here confirming,

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Speaker 1: by the way, the reporting of a number of independent

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Speaker 1: outlets that the IDEAF did order the Hannibal directive on

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Speaker 1: October seventh to prevent Hamas taking soldiers captive. Here is

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Speaker 1: some of the details that we can pull out here.

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Speaker 1: They say one of those decisions was made at seven

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Speaker 1: to eighteen am when an observation post at the Yifta

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Speaker 1: outpost reported someone had been kidnapped at the Eras border

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Speaker 1: crosses adjacent to the IDF's liaison office. Hannibal at Eres

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Speaker 1: came the command from Divisional Headquarters dispatch a zeke. The

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Speaker 1: zeke is an unmanned assault drone and the meaning of

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Speaker 1: this command was clear. At another time, at eleven twenty

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Speaker 1: two am, across the entire Gaza Division network, the order

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Speaker 1: was issued not a single vehicle can return to Gaza,

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Speaker 1: meaning that if you are in the area and you

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Speaker 1: see cars headed back to Gaza, you don't need to

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Speaker 1: worry about whether these are civilians who are fleeing, whether

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Speaker 1: there are people on board who are kidnapped. In fact,

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Speaker 1: that's the whole purpose of the Hannibal directive, is that

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Speaker 1: you would rather kill those civilians than allow them to

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Speaker 1: be taken and to be kidnapped into Gaza.

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Speaker 4: So, you know, as we.

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Speaker 1: Move forward and we think about that horrific death toll

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Speaker 1: on October seventh, it is a legitimate question to say

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Speaker 1: how many of those were Hamas and how many of

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Speaker 1: those were IDF. That is not to deny Hamas atrocities

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Speaker 1: on that day, something we have said consistently and will

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Speaker 1: continue to say.

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Speaker 4: However, there were.

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Speaker 1: Many multiple instances, now documented by a number of outlets,

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Speaker 1: the latest being Haretz and Israeli News outlet that the

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Speaker 1: Hannibal directive was employed in multiple instances and civilians were

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Speaker 1: fired on the IDAF in an attempt to prevent kidnappings

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Speaker 1: from occurring. So this is an astonishing, blockbuster revelation and

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Speaker 1: a truly courageous bit of reporting too for Haretz, which

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Speaker 1: I mean Haretz is a you know, sort of liberal

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Speaker 1: Zionist publication by and large, they have shown a lot

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Speaker 1: of courage in the way that they have reported some

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Speaker 1: aspects of this, in particular some of the Hamas atrocity

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Speaker 1: lies from October seventh, and have earned themselves direct threats

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Speaker 1: of being shut down and banned by the government because

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Speaker 1: of their reporting. So, you know, I really applaud them

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Speaker 1: for being willing to put this out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's actually I mean, look at a certain point,

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Speaker 2: it's also what it's July ninth, So it took ten

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Speaker 2: months for them to put that out. The UN already

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Speaker 2: put it out, and there were already Questions October seventeenth.

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Speaker 4: I forgot that one hadn't even said it covered that.

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Speaker 2: The show, so you know, in a certain sense, like

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Speaker 2: you're following it a little bit. That said, of course,

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Speaker 2: it does actually take a long time to confirm something

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Speaker 2: like this, and it does mean something that in Israeli

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Speaker 2: paper were to actually we admit it. But it does

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Speaker 2: seem like in the midst of the Biden news that

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Speaker 2: a lot of the things that have been confirmed or

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Speaker 2: things bubbling underneath the surface. I don't think anything is

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Speaker 2: going particularly good for Israel, and we have to keep

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Speaker 2: our eyes on it, right because things could explode in

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Speaker 2: any moment. I mean, Israeli troops are now back in

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Speaker 2: Gaza City, which in itself is an admission of failure.

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Speaker 2: There's rafa, you know, we have continues. I saw reporters

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Speaker 2: that are on the ground. There's like full on active

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Speaker 2: combat that's inside. So all of the talk, and then

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Speaker 2: the Israeli generals who actually are forcedease fire because like, hey,

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Speaker 2: we don't have any weapons anymore. They're like, we can't

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Speaker 2: keep this shit going. And then so the government is all,

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Speaker 2: you know, torn apart. So I would say, if anything

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Speaker 2: like this is the time if Barber them to actually

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Speaker 2: try and do a ceasefire, but we'll see.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, the political calculus continues to be against that.

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Speaker 4: Forna.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the latest that you see these insane news

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Speaker 1: reports that are like the sticking point and the ceasefire

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Speaker 1: deal is that Israel wants to continue fighting. It's like,

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Speaker 1: what kind of a ceasefire deal is this? Yeah, it includes,

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Speaker 1: but we want to keep fighting. We're going to talk

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Speaker 1: to Jeremy and Ryan Moore about this because they have

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Speaker 1: some really quite important insights into the way that Hamas

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Speaker 1: is viewing all of this, and they agree with the

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Speaker 1: Israeli analysts who have said this has been a failure

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Speaker 1: for Israel now. Hamas disgustingly also treats civilian life very casually,

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Speaker 1: including Palestinian civilian life. That also comes across in these interviews.

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Speaker 1: But definitely stay tuned for that because you want to

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Speaker 1: hear more from their perspective, which I know is always

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Speaker 1: very controversial, but we've always said it's important to understand

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Speaker 1: the perspective of all of the actors that are involved

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Speaker 1: in these conflicts, regardless of how you feel about them.

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Speaker 1: There was another blockbuster piece of reporting from another Israeli

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Speaker 1: outlet that has done extraordinary work throughout this conflict. This

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Speaker 1: is Plus nine seven to two magazine. The headline here

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Speaker 1: from orn ZEEV is on bored so I shoot the

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Speaker 1: Israeli armies approval a free for all violence in Gaza.

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Speaker 1: We can put this next piece up on the screen.

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Speaker 1: They were able to speak to six different sources IDF soldiers,

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Speaker 1: all of them who confirmed many of the reports from

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Speaker 1: Palestinian civilians on the ground. They were counted how Israeli

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Speaker 1: soldiers routinely executed Palestinian civilians simply because they entered an

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Speaker 1: area the military.

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Speaker 4: Defined as a no go zone.

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Speaker 1: The testimonies paint a picture of a landscape littered with

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Speaker 1: civilian corpses, which are left to rot or be eaten

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Speaker 1: by stray animals. The army only hides them from view

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Speaker 1: ahead of the arrival of international aid convoys so that

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Speaker 1: images of people in advanced stages of decay do not

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Speaker 1: come out to The soldiers also testified to a systematic

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Speaker 1: policy of setting Palestinian homes on fire after occupying them.

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Speaker 1: Could put the next piece up on the screen. They

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Speaker 1: also described how the ability to shoot without restrictions gave

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Speaker 1: soldiers a way to blow off steam or relieve the

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Speaker 1: dullness of their daily routine. Quote people want to experience

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Speaker 1: the event fully. As a reservist who served in northern

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Speaker 1: Gaza recalled, I personally fired a few bullets for no

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Speaker 1: reason into the sea or at the sidewalk and abandoned building.

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Speaker 1: They report it as normal fire, which is a code

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Speaker 1: name for I'm bored, so I shoot. I really encourage

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Speaker 1: you to read this entire report, which again confirms some

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Speaker 1: of the things that we've been talking about for a while,

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Speaker 1: including any Palestinian man, woman, child, etc. Elderly who wanders

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Speaker 1: into a quote unquote no go zone there, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's open season on them to just kill them. They

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Speaker 1: also report that any man who is killed, whether there's

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Speaker 1: any proof whatsoever that they're Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jahad

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Speaker 1: or any other sort of resistance fider, every single man

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Speaker 1: is assumed to be a terrorist and so they're logged

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Speaker 1: as you know, this is a Hamas fighter who has killed.

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Speaker 4: That's why Israel's.

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Speaker 1: Numbers are so much higher than what any when estimates

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Speaker 1: in terms of the Hamas fighters that they have killed.

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Speaker 1: And you know, to go back to Joe Biden, and

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Speaker 1: what a nice guy he is.

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Speaker 4: This is what.

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Speaker 1: He's this is what he's allowed, this is what he's overseen,

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Speaker 1: this is what he's been too weak to stop, even

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Speaker 1: when at times he's voiced some weak objections to what

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Speaker 1: is going on here. In fact soccer yesterday, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you saw this exchange, John Kirby admitted that

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Speaker 1: Israel was indiscriminately firing on civilians. Oh I didn't, he said,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's always he said, it's always unfortunate when

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Speaker 1: civilians are fired on indiscriminately. And you know, we continue

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Speaker 1: to talk to Israel and try to get them to

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Speaker 1: be more precise, like you just they just openly acknowledge

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Speaker 1: the war crimes now like it's no big deal.

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Speaker 2: Here's what drives me, not so, and we have this,

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Speaker 2: let's put this up there on the screen. This is

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Speaker 2: why it absolutely makes me lose my mind. The entire

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Speaker 2: press corps and everybody yesterday was like, oh, Russia struck

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Speaker 2: a children's hospital in deadly barrage across Ukraine. Forty missiles

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Speaker 2: hit this children's hospital, and it's like, yeah, it would

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Speaker 2: be terrible if something hit a children's hospital, right, And

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Speaker 2: as they put right there at deadly strike hits northern

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Speaker 2: Gaza hospital. I mean it was a week prior, maybe

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Speaker 2: days prior, Israel hit a children's hospital in Gaza and

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Speaker 2: they didn't care. And they probably did that, by the way,

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Speaker 2: with American weapons.

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Speaker 5: So spare me, spare me the moral to this conflict.

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Speaker 2: Like and again I don't believe in moral language on

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Speaker 2: all of this stuff. I believe this should be conducted

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Speaker 2: in terms of great power, what's in it for us

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Speaker 2: or not? But you can't selectively do It's this whole

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Speaker 2: week here in Washington is an entire you know, apotheosis

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Speaker 2: of Ukraine. Everything is about oh this poor little unjust

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Speaker 2: Ukraine which got invaded.

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Speaker 6: I'm not saying it's just.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, I think it's terrible that the

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Speaker 2: Russians are striking a children's hospital.

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Speaker 3: But what how are you going to go to.

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Speaker 2: The International Criminal Court, the Hague and everywhere else and

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Speaker 2: prop up international institutions to go after your geopolitical foe

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Speaker 2: when you're backing one of your allies doing the exact

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Speaker 2: same thing. It rings nothing. So the Russians, what do

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Speaker 2: you think they're doing? I saw this is hilarious, is

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Speaker 2: there are all these Indian experts here in America, and

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Speaker 2: one of them was like, I'm so disappointed at Mody

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Speaker 2: for going to Russia and for hugging Putin. And the

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Speaker 2: man was like, I guess India is just in its

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Speaker 2: own is only looking.

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Speaker 4: Out for its own national interests.

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Speaker 2: I'm like, yeah, it would be a real shame to

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Speaker 2: have a president who only looked out for their national interests.

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Speaker 2: And if you're Mody and you're seeing all this stuff

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Speaker 2: that's going on with America, Israel and everybody else, like oh,

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Speaker 2: why should I listen to you your joke.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna lecture me enough to go and visit.

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Speaker 5: You're going to Bibi and you guys are patting. You

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Speaker 5: invited baby to your country to speak in your your congress.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna lecture me.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna go get some cheap gas, folks, because I

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Speaker 5: got a billion poor people that I'm supposed to care for.

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Speaker 4: They'll just never understand.

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Speaker 1: I keep coming back to that column from earlier, I

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Speaker 1: don't know, maybe a couple months in after October seventh,

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Speaker 1: that said, you know this is going to cheapen all

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Speaker 1: human life. It doesn't just stay in Gaza and that's

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Speaker 1: exactly true, because I feel the same thing I see like, oh,

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Speaker 1: nine Ukrainians killed.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, right, that's nothing. And obviously that's not true.

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Speaker 1: That's a disgusting way to look at it, because these

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Speaker 1: are human beings who had lives and families and dreams

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Speaker 1: and aspirations. And there should be horror and outrage at

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Speaker 1: a children's hospital being struck here by Russia or a

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Speaker 1: children's hospital being struck in Gaza by Israel. But if

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Speaker 1: we could put that, PUTS four back up on the

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Speaker 1: screen here, because it's not just the lack of the

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Speaker 1: moral language, it's the inability.

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Speaker 4: To ascribe blame appropriately.

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Speaker 1: So when it's Russia, the headline is very direct, Russia

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Speaker 1: strikes children's hospital in deadly barrage across Ukraine. Oh okay,

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Speaker 1: I understand who the aggressor was. I understand what they struck.

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Speaker 1: I understand what happened here here When it was Gaza,

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Speaker 1: it's deadly strike HiT's Northern Gaza hospital where many were sheltering.

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Speaker 4: Oh well, who who deadly strike?

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Speaker 1: As Asaul rot who has tracked many of these things

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Speaker 1: over the course of this warsay, who committed that deadly strike? Gee,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, did a bomb just fall out on

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Speaker 1: a sky? Who can say? This hypocrisy is something, by

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Speaker 1: the way, that Matthew Miller was just pressed on yesterday

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Speaker 1: as well, State Department ghoule Matthew Miller and you know, okay, well,

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Speaker 1: how come you're able to very quickly assess and condemn

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Speaker 1: Russia striking a hospital, but when it's Israel, we're going

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Speaker 1: to talk to them. There's got to be an investigation.

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Speaker 1: We don't really know what happened, and of course he

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Speaker 1: just you know, spins out.

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Speaker 4: It's totally different.

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Speaker 1: Of course, it's not like you are able to make

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Speaker 1: these assessments in real time, clearly when it comes to

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Speaker 1: a country you don't like, like Russia. But when it's

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Speaker 1: our great ally with our weapons by the way, being

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Speaker 1: used to strike these hospitals, suddenly you're going to have

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Speaker 1: to get back to us, which we all know you

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Speaker 1: literally never will, or you'll say, oh, well, we'll trust

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Speaker 1: the Israelis to investigate themselves. Okay, yeah, that's real credible.

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Speaker 1: So no, their lies in the hypocrisy are so brazen

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Speaker 1: that I don't think I mean even they can't say

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Speaker 1: these things anymore with a straight face, because it's just

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Speaker 1: so obvious to the world.

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Speaker 4: What's really going on?

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Speaker 3: No, I doubt that.

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Speaker 2: I think they're going to be talking about that children's

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Speaker 2: striker or whatever tomorrow. Just just wait, just with a

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Speaker 2: straight face, they'll talk about crimes against humanity and all

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Speaker 2: this other. So why we all got to pony up

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Speaker 2: even more for the war machine. It's just I can't

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Speaker 2: do it anymore, I really can.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go and get to Ryan and Jeremy,

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Speaker 1: Ryan Grim, Jeremy Scahill, who just launched drop Site. They

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Speaker 1: have left the Intercept and they are already out with

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Speaker 1: some blockbuster reporting, so let's bring them in. So we

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Speaker 1: are joined now by the co founders of drop Site,

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Speaker 1: Ryan Grim, our own Ryan Grim and Jeremy Scahill.

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Speaker 4: Great to see you both, see you guys.

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Speaker 3: Good to see you guys are doing.

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Speaker 1: So you all are up this morning with an explosive

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Speaker 1: piece of reporting. I want to go ouad and put

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Speaker 1: this up on the screen. Jeremy, you spoke to a

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Speaker 1: number of top HAMAS officials. The headline here is on

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Speaker 1: the record with Hamas. In a drop Site News exclusive,

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Speaker 1: HAMAS officials discuss their motivations, political objectives, and the human

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Speaker 1: call US of their armed uprising against israel I.

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Speaker 4: Want to get into the.

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Speaker 1: Specifics of the piece, but before we do that, actually, Jeremy,

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Speaker 1: I'd like you to talk about how this is reflective

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Speaker 1: of what you intend to do with drop site, and

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Speaker 1: why we haven't seen any reporting like this, which I

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Speaker 1: think is incredibly critical to understand the mindset of both

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Speaker 1: sides of the conflict, why we don't see this sort

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Speaker 1: of thing in really hardly any other outlet.

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Speaker 7: I mean, look, Crystal, we're in the midst of a

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Speaker 7: sustained genocide in Gaza that's gone on now, it's entering

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Speaker 7: its tenth month, that has been armed, bankrolled, politically, diplomatically, legally,

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Speaker 7: supported by the most powerful nation in the world, by

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Speaker 7: the Biden administration, and by the entirety of the US

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Speaker 7: National security apparatus. And we're being told that this is

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Speaker 7: such an urgent cause that we have to just pour

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Speaker 7: weapons into pummeling two point three million people trapped inside

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Speaker 7: of what is essentially an open air prison. And the

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Speaker 7: justification for this is that around eleven hundred Israeli's six

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Speaker 7: hundred and ninety five of whom were civilians, were killed

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Speaker 7: on October seventh, and I think it's journalistic malpractice not

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Speaker 7: to speak to the individuals who organize this and to

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Speaker 7: understand what their motivation was for it, because this is

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Speaker 7: a tremendously consequential policy on the part of the United

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Speaker 7: States government. Our primary goal is to hold our own

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Speaker 7: government accountable. But also this is a genocide that we're

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Speaker 7: watching unfold in real time, and I think that it's

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Speaker 7: of great public interest to actually speak to the people

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Speaker 7: that organize the attack that then spurred this massive genocidal

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Speaker 7: response from Israel. Dan Rad interviewed Saddam Hussein's CNN had

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Speaker 7: reporters go and interview with Osama bin Laden. I've interviewed

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Speaker 7: members of al Qaeda before. I think this is basic

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Speaker 7: journalistic practice that should be embraced, not demonized. But I

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Speaker 7: know how people are going to respond to this. I mean,

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Speaker 7: you know, look, look what happens when just some networks

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Speaker 7: interview a Republican. People lose their minds. So, you know,

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Speaker 7: I want to apologie for it a all. I think

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Speaker 7: it's a vital journalistic role to go and interview people

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Speaker 7: you're told of the enemy that.

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Speaker 2: Is so obvious and yet so lacking, and so controversial,

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Speaker 2: and yet so controversial. So yeah, Jeremy, why don't you

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Speaker 2: give us some of the specifics you spoke on the

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Speaker 2: record with senior Hamas leaders here in the midst of

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Speaker 2: this ceasefire negotiation, give us into their thinking.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, please, I'll.

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Speaker 6: Give you some new right.

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Speaker 7: So right now, you know, there's you have CI Director

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Speaker 7: William Burns and other US officials, officials from Qatar, Egypt,

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Speaker 7: Israel and also from Hamas that are are now trying

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Speaker 7: to restart these negotiations to try to see if there

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Speaker 7: can be at a minimum some form of a temporary

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Speaker 7: ceasefire so there could be an exchange of captives. And

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Speaker 7: over the weekend, Netanyahu sort of blew this up again

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Speaker 7: and apparently behind the backs, even if his own negotiators

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Speaker 7: went and leaked to the media for things that he

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Speaker 7: said were non negotiables in these you know, in these

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Speaker 7: discussions that are taking place between Israel, Hamas and the mediators,

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Speaker 7: and you know, some of them are basic things like

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Speaker 7: he wants an to smuggling of weapons across the Rafa

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Speaker 7: crossing from Egypt. He doesn't want Hamas fighters to be

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Speaker 7: able to return to the north of Gaza.

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Speaker 3: He wants a.

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Speaker 7: Maximum number of living Israeli hostages returned to Israel. But

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Speaker 7: the big one is he said, Israel is not going

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Speaker 7: to budge on our commitment to continue the war to

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Speaker 7: total victory at a time of our choosing. And this

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Speaker 7: is basically the most inflammatory aspect of this. And there

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Speaker 7: had been indications, and I got some of this from

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Speaker 7: Hamas that they were actually at Hamas was willing to

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Speaker 7: kind of not entirely back off of a demand for

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Speaker 7: a full and permanent ceasefire, but to allow for an incremental,

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Speaker 7: staged settlement or resolution with Israel that would at the

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Speaker 7: onset result in the exchange of some prisoners. You know,

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Speaker 7: there are thousands and thousands of Palestinians, And on that

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Speaker 7: micro level, one of the sticking points is that Hamas'

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Speaker 7: leaders told me that one of their primary goals of

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Speaker 7: the October seventh attacks was to take as many Israeli

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Speaker 7: soldiers prisoner as possible and bring them back to Gaza,

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Speaker 7: because they don't just want to get Palestinian women and

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Speaker 7: children out of Israeli prisons. They want to get combatants.

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Speaker 7: They want people that are Hamas and Palestinian Islamic jihad fighters,

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Speaker 7: some of whom are serving life sentences or multiple life

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Speaker 7: sentences in Israel for killing Israelis, and the Israeli government

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Speaker 7: has said no, we will not release anyone that has

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Speaker 7: Jewish blood on their hands. And Yakha Sinhwar, the Gaza

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Speaker 7: based head of Hamas, one of the three or four

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Speaker 7: main organizers of the October seventh attacks, spent twenty two

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Speaker 7: to twenty three years and in Israeli prison, and he

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Speaker 7: himself was freed in twenty eleven in this very type

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Speaker 7: of deal where in Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit was returned

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Speaker 7: to Israel and then one thousand and thirty plus Palestinians

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Speaker 7: were freed, including Yakha Sinwar, the man that would then

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Speaker 7: go on to be the main organizer of Alaksa flood

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Speaker 7: on October seventh.

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Speaker 1: Ran what is your sense of where we are with

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Speaker 1: the ceasefire negotiations. I'd love you to tie this in

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Speaker 1: also with something we've been talking a nauseum about, which

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Speaker 1: is President Biden's manifest decline. It's my impression that on

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Speaker 1: domestic policy he's sort of handed over the reins to

437
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 1: the rest of the staff, but for better and largely worse,

438
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 1: he hangs on with his death grip to foreign policy

439
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 1: in spite of the fact obviously the Netnyahu bear hug

440
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,360
Speaker 1: strategy has completely failed. His latest humiliation as he gave

441
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 1: this big speech, Oh, Israel is put forward this incredibly

442
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,880
Speaker 1: generous ceasefire proposal. Meanwhile BB's out there saying things like, well,

443
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 1: my condition of ceasefires that I can go back to

444
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 1: fighting this war. So it seems very unlikely that we're

445
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 1: going to achieve a ceasefire so long as Israel is

446
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 1: committed to not having a ceasfire.

447
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:37,880
Speaker 3: Yeah.

448
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:41,479
Speaker 8: Biden really ties his worth as president to his foreign

449
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,719
Speaker 8: policy acumen, which is, you know, we can set the

450
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,639
Speaker 8: irony of that aside, given the fact that he's been

451
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 8: wrong on almost every foreign policy issue that he's weighed

452
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,679
Speaker 8: in in like fifty years. But when he talks publicly

453
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 8: about why he ought to be elected, that's what's immediately

454
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 8: what he goes to. He's got NATO here this week,

455
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 8: and he feels like if he can look like a

456
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 8: president around NATO and then also bring together a ceasefire

457
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 8: and not a ceasefire, because he wants a ceasefire to

458
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:11,399
Speaker 8: this war, in particular because McGirk and blank and have

459
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,400
Speaker 8: convinced him that I think that if he can get

460
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 8: a Saudi Israel deal, that kind of senses it for him,

461
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 8: that like settles his legacy as this great foreign policy thinker,

462
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 8: and it will also overshadow the questions about his ability

463
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 8: to finish thoughts, to complete sentences, and whether or not

464
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,880
Speaker 8: he's just too old and frail to actually serve as president.

465
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 8: So I think he sees a ceasefire or at least

466
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 8: a pause kind of as a as a necessary condition

467
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 8: to get to the next step, which is what he wants,

468
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 8: which is Saudi Israeli normalization, which he thinks then it

469
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 8: would be his like kind of landmark legacy project. But

470
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 8: like you said, net Yah, who is now in July

471
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 8: and staring at the prospect of a likely Trump presidency

472
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 8: in November, Ntyaho is a political adversary of Democrats generally

473
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 8: and of Biden in particular, and Yea who's going to

474
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 8: do everything he can to prolong this war for his

475
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 8: own survival and also to get to that place where

476
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 8: Trump is president, where then he feels like he's got

477
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 8: a reset.

478
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,360
Speaker 1: Jeremi, could you speak some too, because this has been

479
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 1: discussed previously, the way that these normalization deals, which were

480
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 1: started under Trump and then continued under Biden. The way

481
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 1: those played into the impetus for the October seventh attacks

482
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 1: by Hamas.

483
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it's a great question.

484
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 7: And you know, the status quo for twenty plus years

485
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 7: has been, and this has been the approach of many

486
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 7: Arab nations that there isn't going to be any more

487
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:41,439
Speaker 7: landmark peace agreements or normalization agreements with Israel if it

488
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 7: doesn't include a robust addressing of the question of Palestinian

489
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 7: statehood and the condition under which Palestinians are living. And

490
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:54,119
Speaker 7: so from the perspective of Hamas, they watched as Donald

491
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 7: Trump and Jared Kushner embraced Netanyahu's principle, which is that

492
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,679
Speaker 7: the Palestinians should have no vt over Israel's ability to

493
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 7: create new relationships in the Middle East. And you know, actually,

494
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 7: two weeks before October seventh, Netnahu gave a speech at

495
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,159
Speaker 7: the United Nations. It was a largely empty chamber. It

496
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 7: was just to sort of his little minions were in there.

497
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 7: But he he talked about a new vision for the

498
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 7: Middle East that connects you know, Europe, you know, that

499
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 7: connects Asia to Europe. And he holds up a map

500
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:24,679
Speaker 7: and it and and there is no Palestine on it.

501
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 7: Palestinians were entirely erased from the map, and that was

502
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 7: you know, symbolic of what had happened under Trump. And

503
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 7: then Biden comes into office. Biden picks up the mantle

504
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 7: from Jared Kushner and says, you know, we're going to

505
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 7: keep going full steam ahead with these agreements. Hamas and

506
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 7: Islamic Jihad are watching this and.

507
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 3: They're like, no way.

508
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 7: So part of their you know, part of their stated

509
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:47,159
Speaker 7: rationale for the October seventh attacks was to try to

510
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 7: derail these agreements. I don't think that they were deluding

511
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 7: themselves into believing that they would succeed in that, because,

512
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 7: as Mueen Rabani pointed out to me in the in

513
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,679
Speaker 7: the in the in my piece, you know, Palestinian blood

514
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 7: has never stopped these Arab you know, nations from making

515
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 7: any kind of an agreement with Israel. But I think

516
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 7: what is true is that Hamas and Islamic she had

517
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 7: We're sending a message to Arab populations in countries like

518
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 7: Saudi Arabia and Jordan and elsewhere that you better not

519
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 7: let your governments make these deals with Israel. At the

520
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 7: cost of Palestinian lives. I think, though, Crystal, it's really

521
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 7: important to say the main objective I think of the

522
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 7: October seventh attack was to call the question on the siege,

523
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 7: the blockade, the prison of Gaza. Hamas was starting to

524
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 7: get blamed by Palestinians in Gaza for their life conditions,

525
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,959
Speaker 7: which was the aim of Israel's collective punishment strategy of

526
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 7: putting them on a calorie restricted diet, you know, mowing

527
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 7: the lawn through regular military operations. Opinion polling suggested that

528
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 7: people were getting really furious with Hamas. So I think

529
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 7: on a political level, all of these things converged and

530
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 7: Hamas said it's now or never. You know, they were

531
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 7: in trouble internally within Gaza. They were watching the annexations spreading.

532
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 7: They were watching the situation at Alaxamas being defiled, the

533
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,120
Speaker 7: holiest site in Islam and Palestine. They were watching these

534
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,360
Speaker 7: agreements being broker that cut Palestinian out of Palestine, out

535
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 7: of the deal, and they said, this has to be

536
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 7: our stand and I think that that, I believe it.

537
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 7: I think that is sincerely what they wanted to do.

538
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 7: They wanted to shatter the paradigm you know, irrevocably.

539
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:22,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jeremy, what was fascinating reading your piece is the

540
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 2: surprise by how mass leaders, of how successful October seventh was,

541
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,439
Speaker 2: the surprise also of the number of negoligye, of the

542
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 2: number of civilians that they were able to capture, and

543
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 2: the subsequent fallout. You talk about the prisoner's dilemma that

544
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 2: they're now in with respect to the ceaspar Could you

545
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 2: break that down of what that looks like for the audience.

546
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is really important.

547
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 7: You know, My understanding is that the primary objective in

548
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 7: terms of taking you know, what Israel calls hostages, what

549
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 7: Hamas calls prisoners with soldiers, because they can get a

550
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 7: much higher price for the soldiers. As I mentioned, they

551
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 7: wanted to get the impossibles. They also wanted to know

552
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:58,959
Speaker 7: the impossibles meeting these guys who have been locked up

553
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 7: for charges that they've murdered Israelis or that they're armed terrorists.

554
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 7: They also wanted to free other Palestinians, but their primary

555
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 7: objective was to get their own people out.

556
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 3: On this issue.

557
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 7: Though I'm told that, you know, I think that there

558
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,199
Speaker 7: is reason to believe it that when the second and

559
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,640
Speaker 7: third wave of people then start pouring across the prison

560
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 7: walls and fences that Hamas blew apart, and they started

561
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:27,719
Speaker 7: entering Israel. Individual groups of people start also snatching Israelis,

562
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 7: you know, elderly women, children and others and bringing them

563
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 7: back to Tagaza. And so you know, I heard from

564
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 7: both Hamas and from an Israeli negotiator that works that

565
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 7: is currently working to try to free Israelis from Gaza

566
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 7: and deals with Hamas that on the fourth day after

567
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 7: October seventh, Hamas was basically begging net Yahu to take

568
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 7: a bunch of the civilians back. Hamas was not equipped

569
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 7: to hold them. They didn't want to have them, they

570
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 7: didn't consider them valuable. They had an enormous number of soldiers,

571
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 7: way beyond what they thought they would get, and the

572
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 7: net Nyahu government refused that. Yahu was insisting that he

573
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 7: was going to address this militarily. And so you know,

574
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 7: both Israeli negotiators and Hamas have confirmed to me that

575
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 7: not only did Hamas not want to be holding large

576
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 7: numbers of civilians, actually actively tried to give them back.

577
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 1: And Ryan final question to use as Jeremy's peace and

578
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 1: his reporting, but you're obviously deeply familiar with it as well.

579
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 1: I mean, one of the key questions is how did

580
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 1: Hamas view the civilian deaths and injuries and kidnappings of

581
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 1: Israelis on October seventh, and how have they viewed the

582
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 1: massive amount of Palestinian civilian deaths that have occurred, you know,

583
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 1: as a result of their actions. Obviously israelis to blame,

584
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 1: they're the ones dropping the bombs, but Hamas knew that

585
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 1: this would trigger a massive response.

586
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 4: What is their view of those civilian.

587
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: Deaths right there?

588
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 8: There's obviously some some cynicism involved and also some you know,

589
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 8: what would you call it just kind of cold blooded

590
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 8: calculus in the sense that they, you know, they and

591
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 8: Jeremy can talk more at length about this, but you know,

592
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 8: they they obviously understood that there would be an Israeli

593
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 8: response that would be catastrophic and would result in civilian casualties.

594
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 3: Now, they they did not expect.

595
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 8: That they would succeed as significantly as they did, which

596
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 8: means that they didn't expect the extent of the bombing campaign.

597
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 8: They've talked about saying, well, you know, we expected, similar

598
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 8: to the past several weeks, maybe even months, of a

599
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 8: relentless bombing campaign ending with you know, a prisoner exchange

600
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 8: and a ceasefire deal.

601
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 3: You know, so they.

602
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 8: Got more, that they got more than they bargained for.

603
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 8: At the same time, you know, the Palestinian cause is

604
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 8: probably at its highest place internationally. You know that it

605
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 8: has been in many decades, perhaps since the first mostly

606
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 8: non violent Antifada, And so that raises like these really

607
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 8: uncomfortable and thorny ethical ethical questions about about military and

608
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 8: strategic and geopolitical aims and the costs to civilian lives,

609
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 8: to civilian lives without of course, you know, uh, excusing

610
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 8: any kind of Israeli slaughter like that doesn't that doesn't

611
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 8: mean it's justified to respond in the way that Israel has.

612
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 7: One last point on that, Crystal, there's I heard different

613
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 7: perspectives on this question from different people within Hamas. I

614
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:29,959
Speaker 7: get the sense that they're still struggling with how to

615
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 7: answer that question, you know. On the on the one hand,

616
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 7: I had a Hamas official say to me, you know,

617
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 7: this is a really sensitive question that you're asking, and

618
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 7: I don't I don't think any of us expected this

619
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 7: level of a genocidal war. And then others are saying, listen,

620
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 7: what do you expect us to to to die peacefully,

621
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 7: to to just let you continue to slowly murder us,

622
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 7: kill us off, kill us at checkpoints, kill us and

623
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 7: drone strikes, starve us to death, deny us medical care,

624
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 7: you know, and sort of entrenched in that position of saying,

625
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 7: you know, this is on Israel, that they did it.

626
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 7: We had a right to rise up against them. These

627
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 7: are occupiers. We were legitimately engaged in armed resistance, as

628
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 7: recognized under international law. I don't get the sense that

629
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 7: they have a central party line on this question, and

630
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 7: it's quite interesting to hear the debate. It's why I

631
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 7: also spoke to people like Rashid Khalidi and Susan Ablhawa,

632
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 7: the famous Palestinian novelists, because they represent different perspectives that

633
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 7: exist in the broader Palestinian diaspora.

634
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 3: Yeah.

635
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 1: Well, I really recommend people read the entire piece, which

636
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 1: is up on drop site drop site news dot com. Right,

637
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 1: I'm getting the web address right, And congrats to both

638
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 1: of you. I'm so excited about what you're up to.

639
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 1: I can't wait to see what else you have in

640
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 1: store for us, and I really really hope that our

641
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 1: audience and others out there support the work that you're doing,

642
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 1: which is difficult and expensive and thankless and controversial and

643
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 1: all of those things. Ryan, Why don't you just tell

644
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 1: people what they should do to support you guys.

645
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 8: Yeah, go to the yesterday you guys supported us, you know,

646
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 8: big Lee as as as.

647
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 5: Our man would say, we did our goodest job at

648
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 5: that Ryans job.

649
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 8: At drop site news dot com, you can just sign

650
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 8: up to get the you know, the free alerts. I

651
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 8: think you know, we're almost at one hundred thousand. I

652
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 8: think we're ninety five thousand subscribers, so you know this.

653
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 8: You know today you guys can put us over the

654
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 8: top of that if you can, you know, support it financially,

655
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 8: do that. But but if not, that's also okay. The

656
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 8: journalism will always be free. You know, we'll be on

657
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 8: here a lot talking about you know, the results of

658
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 8: our investigations. But if you if you can support it,

659
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 8: you know, you can do that right there at drop

660
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 8: site news dot com or donate dot drop site news

661
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 8: dot com too.

662
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 4: Well. We look forward to that and thank you both.

663
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 2: Great to see you, Thanks guys, Thank you keep up

664
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 2: the great work. Joining us now is Owen Jones. He

665
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 2: is a YouTuber columnist and UK politics expert, and we're

666
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 2: very honored to be joined by him.

667
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 3: It's good to see you own polistic expert. I'll tell

668
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 3: you that. Hey, very good to man.

669
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 2: Let's put this up there on the screen and we

670
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 2: had to get your read as to what is going

671
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:06,479
Speaker 2: on in the UK. Labor wins big, but as the

672
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,840
Speaker 2: headline says here, the UK's electoral system is creaking. I

673
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 2: know you've got some thoughts as to what's happened. I

674
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,479
Speaker 2: believe your Prime minister is actually here in our town

675
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:17,439
Speaker 2: here in Washington, only a few miles away from us.

676
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,280
Speaker 2: So what has happened as a result of this election

677
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 2: and what should we know about it?

678
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 9: So well, the Labor were always on course for a big,

679
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 9: big win.

680
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 3: That's because of the Conservative collapse.

681
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 9: The Conservative government was the most disasterous and democratic history

682
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 9: by two counts. I would say, firstly, it doesn't have

683
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 9: any big achievements on its own terms.

684
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 3: So previous Conservative governments, people like me would.

685
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 9: Reile against them, but they would think we did a

686
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 9: big success. We did this, this and this Thatchers in

687
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 9: reshape Britain its own image and also presided over the

688
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 9: worst queasy living standards ever recorded in modern British history.

689
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 3: So and then they had multiple scandals.

690
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 9: They had Liz Trusty turned Britain into a big laboratory

691
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 9: its citizens as guinea pig. So this really weird hard

692
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 9: right libertarian economic experiment which went badly wrong, crashed the economy,

693
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 9: led to her being kicked out of Downing Street after

694
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 9: forty eight days. She famously a lettuce outliveder which I

695
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 9: think became very famous internationally will let the letters or

696
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 9: his jowls survive. So basically they were in a mess.

697
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 9: They collapsed as a political force. What was striking though

698
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,879
Speaker 9: is maybe we're going to win a landslide by default.

699
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 9: Even though Kistan is not popular, he's the most unpopular

700
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 9: leading the opposition to win an election in modern times.

701
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 3: And what's you know?

702
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 9: We have a bizarre electoral systems past the post like

703
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 9: your own, but with its own British sort of twist,

704
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 9: and Labour won a third of the vote.

705
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 3: In fact, Labour got.

706
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 9: Almost the same share of the vote as they got

707
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 9: last time in twenty nineteen under Jomie Corbyn when they

708
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 9: were routed and they got a lot less than Jamie

709
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 9: Corbyn got in twenty seventeen, so they got forty percent

710
00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:00,399
Speaker 9: of the vote in twenty seventeen. They actually got less

711
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 9: votes this time than they got last time, but they

712
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 9: won a landslide. On fact on a third of the vote,

713
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 9: they've won two thirds of the seats.

714
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 3: That sounds odd, it sounds bizarre. It is.

715
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:14,760
Speaker 9: It doesn't make any sense fundamentally. It's our electoral system.

716
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 9: A lot of Starmer's defenders go, well, that's the game.

717
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:18,760
Speaker 9: You know, you have to win the electoral system.

718
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 3: I get that. You know they're a legitimate government.

719
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 9: But if you're winning, no government has ever won a

720
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 9: majority or such a low share of the vote. They

721
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 9: didn't just win a majority, they won a massive landslide

722
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 9: in seats.

723
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 3: People are calling this.

724
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:34,840
Speaker 9: A gener you know the game of Genger where you

725
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:36,959
Speaker 9: were you build it up and it's with a little

726
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 9: pody can come crashing down.

727
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,320
Speaker 3: It's like a landslide. That's a big Jenger tower.

728
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 9: Because it's built on such a slim's share of the vote,

729
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 9: and on the both the herds right and also from

730
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 9: the left, they faced labor big challenges which they if

731
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 9: they can place it, the whole thing will come crashing down.

732
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, so it seems like less of a major victory.

733
00:36:58,080 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 1: It was less that Labor one and more that the

734
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 1: collapsed and also voter turnout collapsed as well as people

735
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:05,880
Speaker 1: were and this is something we're very familiar with, not

736
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 1: so happy with the choices that they had available to them.

737
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 1: Let's go and put E three up on the screen.

738
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 4: Guys.

739
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 1: This was Owen's column that he wrote in The Guardian,

740
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 1: in which you pointed out that this left for volt

741
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 1: is significant and that it could be a.

742
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 4: Real problem for Labor.

743
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 1: I'd love you to speak to some of the issues

744
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 1: that lefties such as yourself have been upset over. But

745
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 1: you point out something that's really quite astonishing here. Half

746
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 1: of Labor voters cited getting Tories out as the main

747
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 1: reason for their vote. Only five percent cited that it's

748
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 1: because they agree with Kere Starmer's policies, and only one

749
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:43,399
Speaker 1: percent cited here Starmer's leadership. So not exactly inspiring statistics there.

750
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 9: No, this is a poll by you goov. So they

751
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 9: asked what was the main reason you've voted labor? For

752
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 9: nine percent said to get the Tories out five percent,

753
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 9: As you said.

754
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 3: The policies.

755
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 9: I'd look to actually ask these five percent, what are

756
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 9: your three favorite labor policies, They would struggle. The vast

757
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 9: majority of the public aren't even aware of what most

758
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 9: of Labour's policies are.

759
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 3: I mean, you know.

760
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 9: The issue though, in terms of what labor perspectives is

761
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,240
Speaker 9: is Britain is in a mess. It's in its worst

762
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:12,840
Speaker 9: mess since the war, worst creason living standards ever recorded.

763
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 3: The public sphere is just falling apart.

764
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 9: A national health service, which a former Tory politician called

765
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 9: the closest the English hofter of religion. We take the

766
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 9: NHS faciously an actual health service, probably one healthcare. Whether

767
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 9: your right wing or left wing people see this as

768
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 9: the kind of crowning glory. It's in a mess. It's

769
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 9: falling apart. I mean, you could go on. It's just

770
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 9: this place as a disaster. It's infrastructures for you know,

771
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 9: people kind of think Britain needs to be switched off

772
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 9: and maybe if you've sard it on, maybe it'll start working.

773
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 9: Yet the country doesn't feel like it works. The trainers

774
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,919
Speaker 9: don't work, nothing works, and the problem is labor don't

775
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 9: have policies to address that. They refuse to increase taxes

776
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:49,440
Speaker 9: on the rich. They're to the right of Biden. On

777
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 9: economic policy, they don't. There were twenty billion pounds.

778
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 3: A year.

779
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 9: Cuts which are looming, and they've got to say physical

780
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 9: rules of the Conservatives they support continued well, expanding privatization

781
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 9: of the NHS. And on foreign policy they stood squarely

782
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 9: behind Israel's genocide rampage, including kids start amor saying that

783
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:15,240
Speaker 9: is well, I had the right to cut off energy

784
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 9: and water to civilians. So what that meant was and

785
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 9: this is why it's called such an odd landslide. When

786
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 9: Tony Blair won in ninety ninety seven, he won, he

787
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 9: won about forty four percent of the vote. He got

788
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 9: about ten points higher than they did and you didn't

789
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 9: have a left revolt in this election. The Greens took

790
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 9: four seats they had one before, and various independence one

791
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:39,360
Speaker 9: seats as well. But also the Greens are now second

792
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 9: place behind laboring forty seven seats, and that's ever happened before.

793
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 9: This is the best result of the non labor left

794
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 9: in British history. So now as well as on the

795
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 9: hard right, there was challenges from the left because this

796
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 9: has happened before they were even in power. That's very rare.

797
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 9: You don't get disillusionment from the left with Labor before

798
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 9: they've even taken office normally, but that's already happened, and

799
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 9: that's different.

800
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 3: And from Tony Black.

801
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:02,240
Speaker 4: That's really interesting.

802
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 2: So yeah, as you said, as I understand the Reform

803
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 2: Party and the Greens also put up significant results against

804
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 2: both of the centrist coalitions. So in the US, everyone's like, oh,

805
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:13,879
Speaker 2: what a big win for Labor. Well, it's actually quite

806
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,800
Speaker 2: more of a complicated story than that. As you said,

807
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 2: on foreign policy, maybe you can expand that a little bit,

808
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:22,800
Speaker 2: both with regards to Israel, but also with regard to Ukraine.

809
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 2: Like I said, your Prime Minister is here in Washington

810
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 2: right now, as I understand it, he does. He share

811
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 2: the same Ukraine policy as Rishi Sunak. Is there any

812
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 2: change whatsoever in that? Maybe you can break both of

813
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 2: those down for US.

814
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 9: Yeah, I don't think it there'd be any significant change,

815
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 9: And to be honest, that's the consensus here. I mean

816
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 9: even I mean, if you look at Fans the Friends

817
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,840
Speaker 9: left triumphed, they have the same policy on Ukraine. To

818
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 9: be honest, I don't think there's much of a discussion

819
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 9: a debate about that within British foreign policy. The big

820
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 9: schism is over Palestine, and you know the position of

821
00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 9: the Labor leadership is that voters had nowhere to go.

822
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 3: Muslim voters have nowhere to go.

823
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 9: But there are four million, I mean better in mind

824
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 9: our population sixty seven million or so, there are four

825
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:11,280
Speaker 9: million British Muslims. There were a significant part of Labour's

826
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 9: electoral coalition. They're treated with contempts. They're briefed about in

827
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 9: very derogatory ways by Labor officials. When Labor Muslim councilors

828
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:23,799
Speaker 9: were resigning. These are local party elected politicians. When they

829
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 9: were resigning, a Labor official brief that Labor was shaking

830
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 9: off the fleas. And previously Muslim disillusionment was explained as

831
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 9: anti Semitism and the homophobia just smears against the entire communities.

832
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 3: What you saw is.

833
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 9: Muslim voters either going for independence who have also they

834
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 9: defeated two senior Labor shadow ministers. I mean, you've got

835
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 9: a landside where Labor shadow ministers were getting defeated. It's

836
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 9: very weird, and that's partly because of not just Muslim

837
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:54,760
Speaker 9: voters but other voters.

838
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 3: I mean, the Greens did partly well over Gaza.

839
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 9: I mean the fact is, you know, people playing that

840
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:04,280
Speaker 9: foreign policy is irrelevant in elections. It was barely discussed

841
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 9: in the election campaign. We had no discussion pretty much

842
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:09,799
Speaker 9: about Palestine or any foreign policy issue, or even about

843
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:12,319
Speaker 9: you know, there was more discussion about trans people than

844
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:14,759
Speaker 9: there was about poverty. I mean, it's just it's insulting.

845
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 9: And you know, this is the sort of democracy we

846
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 9: have in this Kunji. There are some that powerles with

847
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 9: what's going on over there.

848
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 3: I get that sounds familiar.

849
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 2: If anything is probably our fault, we exported it to

850
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 2: you a little bit, a little bit.

851
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 1: Oh, and on that we can put what is this

852
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 1: E two up on the screen? Do you expect any

853
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 1: shift in the policy vis of the israel I?

854
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 4: Did see this?

855
00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 1: Labor expected to drop challenge to the ICC over Netanyahu

856
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,760
Speaker 1: arrests warrant? So do you think there might be any

857
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 1: improvement whatsoever? Were you heartened to see this move? What

858
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 1: did you make of this?

859
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 3: Yes, I mean I welcome this.

860
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 9: And you know what Richie Sunak conservative government did as

861
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 9: a parting gift to israel Is. They launched an appeal

862
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 9: to the international criminal courts to stop the Chief prosecutor's

863
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 9: requests for restaurants against Benjamin Yawho and his defense mister Yogalan,

864
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 9: And they did that on the spurious claim basis that

865
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 9: the ICC does not have jurisdiction over Israel Palistine, when

866
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:18,839
Speaker 9: it absolutely does that has already been dealt with.

867
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 3: It was worrying.

868
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 9: It was concerning that the pre trial judges had even

869
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 9: accepted that appeal to be consisers, which is what they had.

870
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 9: They then extended the deadline for submission for the case

871
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:31,520
Speaker 9: on the basis there'd been an election.

872
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 3: That now appears that the.

873
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 9: Labor government is going to drop that, as say, the

874
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 9: bars on the floor, because obviously other European governments haven't

875
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 9: submitted that in the first place.

876
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 3: But obviously that's very welcome. What also may well happen?

877
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 9: I mean, they said, for example, the government he had

878
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 9: likely been given well, they've been given legal advice over Israel.

879
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 9: A conservative senior politician who was in charge of the

880
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:58,400
Speaker 9: Defense Committee, which in parliament which kind of strutuinizes government

881
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 9: on the issue, she said that advice had been given

882
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 9: that Israel had broken international law, which anyone who is

883
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 9: in completely deranged conceison obvious truism but that would mean

884
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,799
Speaker 9: that Britain has to stop selling arms and cease all

885
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 9: intelligence cooperation with Israel. So the question now is will

886
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 9: they release that advice and will they see arm sales.

887
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:20,319
Speaker 9: Britain doesn't sell that many arms to Israel compared to

888
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 9: not just the US but Germany, which sells a lot more.

889
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 9: But nonetheless that's important. But there's you know, what Britain

890
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 9: has done at the moment the labor opposition in the

891
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 9: manifestos they said they'll accept they'll recognize Palistine.

892
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 3: At some point in the future.

893
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 9: That's not what Spain has done and Norway done. They

894
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:38,840
Speaker 9: just they recognized Palistin already.

895
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 3: So the bar is on the floor.

896
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 9: But there is an improvement there, definitely, just by the

897
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 9: fatless stot trying to hijack or sorry, the stocks, trying

898
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 9: to you know, destroy the the the requests for a

899
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 9: restaurants for example.

900
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 3: Interesting.

901
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 1: Oh and thank you so much. It's so great to

902
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 1: have your analysis. We're really grateful for your time.

903
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 3: Thanks man.

904
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 1: All right, so we are sticking with the international theme

905
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:04,760
Speaker 1: here and turning now to France, where a left coalition

906
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 1: really shocked the world with some surprising, surprisingly good results

907
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 1: there and Arno Bertrand is back with US entrepreneur and

908
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 1: analysts to discuss ourselves.

909
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:14,839
Speaker 4: Great to see Arnaw, good to see you again.

910
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:17,479
Speaker 6: Thank you for inviting me again.

911
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:20,320
Speaker 1: Yes, of course, So give people a little bit of

912
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 1: a backstory of how this left victory came together.

913
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 6: Sure, So first of all, I we don't characterize it

914
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 6: as a victory because no one actually got a majority

915
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 6: of the seats in parliament, which is what you need

916
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 6: to have in order to form a government. But it's

917
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,879
Speaker 6: true that the left coalition, which is for the New

918
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 6: Popular Front, got the most seats, so they're not the

919
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 6: first political force in France. And so it's an alliance

920
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 6: of various left parties, the Socialist, the Green, the France Asmes,

921
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 6: which is the biggest. It means that it can be

922
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 6: translated to US as on bowed front. And so right

923
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 6: now they have about one hundred eighty seats in the

924
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 6: French Parliament out of five hundred and seventy seven, which

925
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 6: is more than Macon which arrived second, and more than Lupenno.

926
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:25,240
Speaker 2: They're right third, and so Arno, last time we spoke,

927
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 2: and I believe this was a general consensus was that

928
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:30,320
Speaker 2: this was a major mistake by Macron to call this election.

929
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 2: Can we put F two please up on the screen

930
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:35,319
Speaker 2: because we actually have the results in front of us.

931
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:38,319
Speaker 2: So we see, as you said, that the coalition has

932
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty seats, Ensemble one hundred and fifty

933
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 2: nine seats, the right wing Party one hundred and forty

934
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 2: three seats. So do we still believe that this was

935
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:51,280
Speaker 2: a mistake by Macrone? Did he call the bluff correctly?

936
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 2: And was this a defeat for the right? How should

937
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:53,840
Speaker 2: we view this?

938
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:58,880
Speaker 6: I think the general consensus is yes, that was a

939
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 6: major mistake by my because he lost eighty seats in parliament,

940
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 6: which is huge and right now the Left, who is

941
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 6: been he has vilified throughout the election. There is, you know,

942
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 6: a lot of bad blood between the Left and Macon.

943
00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 6: They're not the first political force in France and pretty

944
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 6: much everyone in Macron's camp hates him now. So I

945
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:27,800
Speaker 6: don't think that this can be spinned at victory for

946
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 6: Macon or successful gamble in any way.

947
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 1: So, as you point out someone's going to have to

948
00:47:34,520 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 1: form a government, how does it look like that's going

949
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:39,000
Speaker 1: to come together at this point?

950
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 6: So it's the next veteran, So there are two choices. Basically,

951
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:49,800
Speaker 6: the left argues that because they came first, they should

952
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:54,240
Speaker 6: form of governments, and Macaron is actually trying to divide

953
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 6: the left because again it is made of several different

954
00:47:57,040 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 6: parties and try to basically gets the the party that

955
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:06,959
Speaker 6: are a bit more on the right in the left

956
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 6: to align with him and the Republican right to form

957
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 6: a coalition and onto this coalition form of government. And

958
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 6: so that's basically what's happening in France right now, those

959
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 6: two you know, solutions competing. So far, the left doesn't

960
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 6: seem to want to be divided. But you know, let's see,

961
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 6: I think we still have there is some form of deadline.

962
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:41,800
Speaker 6: By the first time the new parliament is gonna you know,

963
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 6: seit for the first time. I believe that's gonna happen

964
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:48,960
Speaker 6: in ten days or so. So basically, you know, we

965
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:51,919
Speaker 6: we we have the next few days to to see

966
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 6: how that's gonna pan.

967
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:53,399
Speaker 4: Ount.

968
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 2: Now, what do you think is going to happen in

969
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 2: the interim next few years? So this just seems like

970
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 2: chaos because I believe Macron you can correct me if

971
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,440
Speaker 2: I wrong. He can't run again in twenty twenty seven,

972
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 2: is that right? And so okay, you can't all right,

973
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 2: So okay, So then what is going to happen in

974
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:14,279
Speaker 2: the interim ahead of then the presidential elections. What will

975
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 2: that look like in terms of governance in France.

976
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,920
Speaker 6: Well, it really depends on what happens with this with

977
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:22,840
Speaker 6: this new government.

978
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 3: So if there is a.

979
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:30,320
Speaker 6: Broad coalition of you know, several parties getting together on

980
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:34,680
Speaker 6: forming a government on a specific project, on the majority

981
00:49:34,719 --> 00:49:39,400
Speaker 6: in parliament, then you know, things can be not that

982
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 6: chaotic because you know they have a majority on the

983
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 6: pass laws on sow. But that's the unlikely scenario. The

984
00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:51,040
Speaker 6: more likely scenario is that you have a minority governments

985
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 6: with a majority in parliament and therefore they won't be

986
00:49:56,640 --> 00:50:02,279
Speaker 6: able to pass law on they will face possiver. It's

987
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:07,239
Speaker 6: called the motional censure motion. Basically, the government can be

988
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 6: toppled down by Parliament at any point. So that option,

989
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 6: which is the most likely scenario, would be would be

990
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 6: fair chaotic.

991
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:22,879
Speaker 4: Guys, can we put F three up on the screen? Arna?

992
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:26,759
Speaker 1: What can you say about the issue set that was

993
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 1: important in this election? This is some of the things

994
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:31,600
Speaker 1: that the Left coalition ran on. They want to raise

995
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 1: the minimum wage, they want to lower the retirement age,

996
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 1: build one million affordable homes, freeze the price of basic needs,

997
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:41,040
Speaker 1: invest in infrastructure. I saw they also ran on easing

998
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:44,880
Speaker 1: and expanding the asylum process. So you know, dramatic difference

999
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:48,320
Speaker 1: there from the right wing party and also from where.

1000
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 4: Mccron has positioned himself.

1001
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:55,759
Speaker 1: Was this election driven primarily by these policies or other

1002
00:50:55,920 --> 00:51:00,359
Speaker 1: policy concerns? Was more about the tactical intelligence of the left,

1003
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:02,279
Speaker 1: was more of a rebuke of the right.

1004
00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 4: How do you see those things?

1005
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 2: Uh?

1006
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 6: So those issues matter a lot because there is a

1007
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:13,360
Speaker 6: strong feeling in the French population which is actually the

1008
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:17,400
Speaker 6: truth that their living standards are going down. And especially

1009
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:21,120
Speaker 6: Macron made a lot of very unpopular reforms, so for instance,

1010
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:26,760
Speaker 6: raising the the the the age at which you can retire,

1011
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:31,000
Speaker 6: which is what they want to undo. So those issues

1012
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 6: were definitely popular. Then the left ran quite a lot

1013
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:40,800
Speaker 6: on Gaza. It was even i would say, one of

1014
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 6: their main topics. And and you know in France now

1015
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 6: you have a fairly large electorate of Muslim background, and

1016
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 6: the voted massively for the left because the alternative were uh,

1017
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 6: you know, very islam of bigpen or Macron, who was

1018
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:09,879
Speaker 6: actually quite pro pro Israel, so that metal as well.

1019
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:13,560
Speaker 6: And then in between both rounds the first on the

1020
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:17,360
Speaker 6: second round, there was a lot of uh, you know,

1021
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 6: tactical play in order to basically unsure that the assemble

1022
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 6: will not win too many seats. And and that also

1023
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:34,759
Speaker 6: played a big role because when you look at the

1024
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:38,920
Speaker 6: number of votes, the personage of votes, uh, the assembles

1025
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 6: way less seeds then they will get if they had

1026
00:52:44,480 --> 00:52:47,440
Speaker 6: a proportional number of seats based on the on the

1027
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:51,880
Speaker 6: percentage of votes and Macron has way more vote on

1028
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:54,839
Speaker 6: the left to teny bit more. So you can see

1029
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 6: that these tactical moves had an effect.

1030
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:02,400
Speaker 1: Very interesting. Arnold, thank you so much for your analysis.

1031
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:04,040
Speaker 1: It's really invaluable and it's great to see you again.

1032
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 3: Thank you, no, thank you so much. Thank you.

1033
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 4: It's our pleasure.

1034
00:53:07,760 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 2: Thank you guys so much for watching me. Really appreciate it.

1035
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:11,560
Speaker 2: Counterpoints will be on tomorrow and we will see you

1036
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:12,480
Speaker 2: all on Thursday.