1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:07,119 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts. If you are even remotely 2 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: a savage, you'll run these people over for a second. 3 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Over podcast presented by FanDuel. I'm 4 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: sean Zerrella, joined today by former professional MMA fighter Billy Ward, 5 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 2: who is fighting through an ice storm and joining us 6 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 2: via audio only, So we do apologize about the audio, 7 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 2: but we are happy to have Billy here providing his 8 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 2: analysis as we break down UFC Vegas seventy, going down 9 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 2: this weekend at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. We're 10 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 2: gonna take you through the card, talk about our favorite underdogs, 11 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 2: our top props, and more, and finish up with some 12 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 2: best bets. But first we're gonna get you started with 13 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 2: the main event and our bets on the main event 14 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 2: between to Kita Krylov coming in is a minus one 15 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,559 Speaker 2: seventy eight favorite, and Ryan spanned about plus one forty 16 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 2: five on the comeback at FANDU will be over under 17 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 2: set at one and a half rounds and juiced up 18 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 2: to that under at a round minus one fifty span 19 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 2: a lot of his fights, do you and inside of 20 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 2: round one and Billy, you are betting this fight in 21 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 2: an angle that has Spanned getting an early finish. 22 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, you pointed out most of Spans fights 23 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 3: have a tendency to end early, and if you're on 24 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 3: the Span side, which I am, there's just no reason 25 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 3: to play his money line. Straight up, he's not going 26 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 3: to win a five round decision, or he's very unlikely to, 27 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 3: and there's a few different ways you can go about it. 28 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 3: One of the ones I love the option that FanDuel 29 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 3: gives us. They're letting you bet Span in round one, 30 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 3: two or three at plus one ninety five, so that 31 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 3: covers you across the first three rounds of this fight. 32 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 3: We haven't really seen Span go long in any of 33 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 3: his fights. I have a lot of questions about his 34 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 3: cardio because he swings very aggressively, doesn't really defend takedowns. 35 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 3: Prefers to just lock up his power guillotine and try 36 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 3: to get that, which is great if it were, but 37 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 3: if it doesn't, he's going to be losing rounds, losing 38 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 3: minutes to the control time of his opponent. Krylov is 39 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 3: a very solid grappler, so if he can get that takedown, 40 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a long night for Span. 41 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:12,920 Speaker 3: But you know, each of those rounds starts on the feet, 42 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:15,239 Speaker 3: Span will have a fresh tank of gas at least 43 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,919 Speaker 3: for the openings of those rounds. He has huge power 44 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:19,680 Speaker 3: in both of his hands, So if you're on the 45 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 3: Span side, I think I like him a little bit 46 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:23,799 Speaker 3: better here, just no reason to play the money line. 47 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 3: Take his finished props, take his inside the distance, or 48 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 3: you know, for even better odds at FanDuel, Span in 49 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 3: any of the first three rounds is plus one ninety five. 50 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's pretty solid analysis. You know, Span 51 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 2: a tough fighter to get a read on, because he 52 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,799 Speaker 2: said that he used wasn't previously training, and now he is. 53 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 2: He's gotten off the couch, seems to be more active 54 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 2: and more engaged with his career. Who knows how true 55 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 2: that is, but we have seen him gas out consistently 56 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 2: in the past. 57 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 4: We do know that he doesn't have the best cardio. 58 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 2: He is a big light heavyweight, has missweight cutting the 59 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 2: light heavyweight in the past, so does not have the 60 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 2: best gas tank. Krylov certainly has the better cardio and 61 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 2: has the grappling upside as well. I'll Span very dangerous 62 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 2: in the first round. We've seen Krylov get submitted on 63 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 2: numerous occasions seen him get hurt in the past, wabble 64 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 2: then sort of recover, so I think there will be 65 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,239 Speaker 2: moments where Span is going to put him in danger early. 66 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 2: But if Kralov is able to weather that storm, I 67 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 2: think he takes over at a pretty significant degree over 68 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 2: the final four and a half rounds or so. I 69 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 2: should say three and a half rounds or so, once 70 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 2: you get past that one and a half round. 71 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 4: Mark where the total is set. 72 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 2: So if Krylov can stay healthy, if he can survive 73 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 2: that first six seven minute mark, I think he takes 74 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 2: over to significant degree. Krylov live after round one maybe 75 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 2: the best entry point, but I don't mind laying his 76 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 2: money line pre fight at minus one seventy projected a 77 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 2: closer to minus one eighty five, and then Krylov live 78 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 2: after round one would be an additional spot to add more. 79 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 2: Moving on to our favorite underdog on the card, to 80 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 2: Billy and I have a consensus play here, Dantel Mays 81 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 2: plus one ten against the Costosakai. 82 00:03:57,960 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 4: Billy. 83 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 2: You talked about Dontel Mays in your luck ratings this week, 84 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 2: which people can find on Action network dot com. You'll 85 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 2: also be able to find my main event review up 86 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 2: there shortly as well. But Dontel May's last performance was 87 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 2: a bit underwhelming coming off of what seemed like a 88 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 2: breakout performance. A lot of people bet him as a 89 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 2: favorite against Homdy. They were let down. Dantel May's plus 90 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:19,919 Speaker 2: one ten here against the gust of Sakai. Why do 91 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 2: you like him as the dog side? 92 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know you mentioned the luck rating piece. This 93 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 3: is kind of a perfect example, and I'm going through, 94 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 3: you know, various factors and trying to figure out what matters. 95 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 3: But that fight against Homdy turns out after the fact 96 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:34,679 Speaker 3: Homdy was just on a ton of performance and anton drugs. 97 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 3: That one's a no contest now. But it's not because 98 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 3: you know, some medical issue or something weird happened. It's 99 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 3: because the guy was just to the guild. So I'm 100 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:43,600 Speaker 3: willing to give Mays a little bit of a pass 101 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 3: on that just given the situation. And there was a 102 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 3: short notice fight for both of them, which can be 103 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 3: an issue. But you know, he's fighting Augusta Sokia Soakaia 104 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,279 Speaker 3: has lost four straight, He's been knocked out in each 105 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 3: of them. While it's been tougher competition then against Dontell, 106 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 3: Mays Maze has actually had a pretty rough go of 107 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:01,039 Speaker 3: it in terms of the fight he's been messed up with. 108 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 3: He made his USC debut against cerro Gon. He also 109 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:07,599 Speaker 3: lost to Rodriguo Nassimento. Most of those guys submitted him, 110 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 3: so syrol Gon even wasn't able to win the fight 111 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 3: on the feet and had to take it down. Soa 112 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 3: Kai has never really won much by submission, not much 113 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 3: to a grappler. So we've got a guy who's really 114 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 3: only vulnerable to grappling exchanges as an underdog against someone 115 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 3: who's lost four straight fights and been knocked out in 116 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:24,480 Speaker 3: each of them. I would make may as a favor here, 117 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:26,039 Speaker 3: so a plus one time. That's just a gift. 118 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 4: Yeah. 119 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:29,839 Speaker 2: The one thing I can't forgive Mays for against Homby 120 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 2: is the fight IQ issues. Going for takedown against the 121 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 2: Olympic revel wrestler when all you need to do is 122 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 2: keep the fight on the feet and out strike him. 123 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 2: Are the things that you don't like to see from 124 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 2: fighters who you've been on, you know, the guys who 125 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 2: aren't able to recognize the path of Lee's resistance and 126 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 2: sort of engage their opponent in the area where their 127 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 2: opponent specializes those sort of things drive me nuts, and 128 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 2: Dantel May's has low fight IQ is reliable to do 129 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:56,479 Speaker 2: things that are going to frustrate you as you watch him. 130 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 2: But that's why you'd rather bet him at plus money 131 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:00,799 Speaker 2: than laying juice on him. And I guess the Skai 132 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 2: may be completely washed at this point four straight knockout losses. 133 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 2: You do not see UFC fighters bounce back from four 134 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,239 Speaker 2: straight knockout losses and get their career righted very often. 135 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 2: He used to be a heavyweight who relied on his 136 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 2: durability and outpacing opponents. Now he seems super gun shy 137 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 2: and super fragile. So Augusto Sakai may be broken, but 138 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 2: really I just like the grappling upside that Dontel Mays 139 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 2: has here. I think if he pursues the takedowns, He's 140 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 2: going to get on top of Sakai and be able 141 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 2: to keep him down. So Dantell May is at plus 142 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 2: one ten and another underdog I like in that same 143 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 2: price range with grappling upside, Jazmine Jess Sudavisious at plus 144 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 2: one ten against the debutante Fernandez. Grappling upside for Jess 145 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 2: suitivisious here, reliable to shoot about three to four takedowns 146 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:45,800 Speaker 2: per round, and we've seen Fernandez get stuck on her 147 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 2: back regionally and give up takedowns at a high rate 148 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 2: at the regional level. So again, and going against the 149 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:56,799 Speaker 2: UFC caliber opponent who's going to have that grappling upside, certainly. 150 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 4: Like Jess Suitivicious at plus money. 151 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 2: Let's move onto our fight of the night between Andrea 152 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 2: Munees and Brandon Allen, the co main event on the card, 153 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 2: and I like the over one and a half rounds here. 154 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 2: I'm expecting a close and competitive affair. There is a 155 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 2: chance that you need takes Allen down and instantly submits him. 156 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 2: He's one of the most dangerous sbmission grapplers in the world. 157 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 2: But we've seen when fighters are willing to prioritize staying 158 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 2: save against me knees like you' Riyah Hall did in 159 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 2: his last fight and not try to get up, they 160 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 2: don't give anything to him. There are able to stay 161 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 2: safe and survive, and Munize has poor cardios. So if 162 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 2: Allen is able to survive that first round, get back 163 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 2: standing for the start of the second round and keep 164 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 2: the fight standing. I think he can out strike me 165 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 2: Knees can out strike me knees if he avoids the takedown. 166 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 2: But I do expect him to be taken down in 167 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 2: that first round. So maybe if you wait for a 168 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 2: better price after round one on Allen can better find 169 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 2: a better price on his money line. 170 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 4: If it gets up to plus two. 171 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 2: Hundred pre fight, I consider betting that, But my favorite 172 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 2: way to play it the over one and a half 173 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 2: rounds at minus one forty five and then Alan by 174 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 2: decision of plus five hundred. I think is interesting as well, 175 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 2: projected that closer to plus three point fifty. Billy, I 176 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 2: think you're of a similar mind that you expect this 177 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 2: to be a competitive fight. Curious how you feel about 178 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 2: the over one and a half rounds, and I know 179 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 2: you are leaning to Alan as the side as well. 180 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that. I also like, you know, live 181 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 3: angles on Alan. I tend not to give out live angles, 182 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 3: especially on these fight night cards, so I just don't 183 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 3: want to assume that anyone's going to actually be watching 184 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 3: this live all the way through. But yeah, the cardio 185 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 3: is a very good point. If you watch a lot 186 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 3: of jiu jitsu competitions and stuff, the pace is just 187 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 3: so much slower and an AMMA fight, and they also 188 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 3: don't have rounds. It's one continuous thing. So a lot 189 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 3: of the guys who compete in the high level jiu 190 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 3: jitsu like Unis does, they just don't really have that 191 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 3: pacing and that cardio to keep up in an MMA fight. 192 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 3: And Allen is no slouch as a grappler. He's a 193 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 3: jiu jitsu black belt as well. He's eight and two 194 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 3: in the UFC. Both of his losses were against strikers. 195 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,200 Speaker 3: He lost to Chris Curtis and Teron Strickland. You know, 196 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 3: both of those losses actually look pretty good in retrospect. 197 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 3: It was a short notice, early fight for Curtis, but 198 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 3: he's been really good. Strickla went on a middleweight and 199 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 3: it's probably a top five guy. So I think Allen's 200 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 3: just a little bit undervalued here. So a plus one 201 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 3: ninety or so on a money line, super happy with that. 202 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 3: You know, any angle where you get him laid or 203 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 3: mute or Allen in over one and a half stuff 204 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 3: like that is also solid. But yeah, I love the 205 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 3: cardio point. I think he's got the grappling to survive 206 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:19,599 Speaker 3: on the ground even if he doesn't necessarily win the 207 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 3: most exchanges, and then just the far better striker should 208 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 3: dominate once it gets to the feed, especially if Menies 209 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 3: runs out of gas. 210 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 2: I mentioned Alan my decision plus five hundred books where 211 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 2: you can same game parlay Allen in the over one 212 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:33,079 Speaker 2: and a half rounds, that's closer to plus three hundred. 213 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 2: I think that's a very sharp bet as well, if 214 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 2: you have that option available. And just to Billy's point 215 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 2: about BJJ dominant guys like Coodolfo Vieira, like Gilbert Burns, 216 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 2: these world class, decorated BJJ grapplers necessarily do not have 217 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 2: the best cardio. In fact, I'd say more often than 218 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 2: not they all have about seven minutes of gas and 219 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 2: then they all really start to fade. So going with 220 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:58,600 Speaker 2: the cardio angle on Allen here, I think he takes 221 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:00,719 Speaker 2: over in the second half of the fight if he 222 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:03,920 Speaker 2: makes it there. And talking about those Allen decision props 223 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 2: leads us into our favorite props on the evening. I 224 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 2: do like Allen decision A five to one quite a bit, 225 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 2: But the two biggest favorites on the card Joe Selecki 226 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 2: Fight minus five ninety and Tatiana Suarez making her return 227 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 2: minus eight hundred. Both have massive grappling upside, and I 228 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 2: think if either wins, they're going to need to hit 229 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 2: their wing condition by getting to dominant grappling positions where 230 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 2: they should have a chance to finish the fight via submission. 231 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 2: SELECTI inside the distance is minus one ten. Suarez inside 232 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 2: the distance is about plus one thirty. I do like 233 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 2: their sub props though, at plus one thirty and plus 234 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 2: two point eighty, respectively. Those would also be the building 235 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:42,199 Speaker 2: blocks at the start of any of my round robin tickets, 236 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 2: as well as Suarez sub plus two eighty Seleti sub 237 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 2: plus one thirty for the two biggest favorites on the card. 238 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 2: Billy is also going to the finish prop. Another fighter 239 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 2: he talked about in his Luck Ratings piece this week. 240 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 2: That would be Odei Osborn, who was finished last time 241 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,319 Speaker 2: out with a very mistime flying knee eating a right 242 00:10:59,360 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 2: hand counter. 243 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 4: But you like oday to get the job done this time. 244 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not necessarily that I think he's going to win, 245 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 3: but if he wins, it will almost certainly be by 246 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 3: a stoppage. Charles Johnson has very solid wrestling for a 247 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 3: guy with a boxing background. Much better cardio. You know, 248 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:15,959 Speaker 3: it's a bit of a short notice fight for Johnson, 249 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 3: but his cardio is held up really well. He even 250 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 3: started to get the better of some exchanges with Mohammed 251 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 3: Mokayev in Johnson's debut. So I just have a lot 252 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,679 Speaker 3: more faith in Johnson's cardio. But Oda has big power 253 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,559 Speaker 3: for a flyweight, and he's fighting guy in Johnson who 254 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:33,080 Speaker 3: kind of leans and dips like a boxer. Ode loves 255 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 3: to kick, loves to throw flying knees. As you reference, 256 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:37,959 Speaker 3: he definitely has the opportunity to put him out. His 257 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 3: inside the distance line is well and plus three hundred. 258 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 3: You could even go round one at plus six hundred 259 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 3: if you wanted to juice it a little bit more. 260 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 3: You know, I like a lot of these stoppage guys. 261 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 3: I like there's chances at the start of the second 262 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 3: round as well, not just in the first, since the 263 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 3: fight necessarily gets stood back up and they get a 264 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 3: little bit of a break. But just the gap between 265 00:11:57,520 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 3: his inside the distance line and his money line is 266 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 3: far too big. If Oday is going to win this, 267 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,440 Speaker 3: he probably has to finish Johnson. So at plus three hundred, 268 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 3: that's just a much better bet than is plus one 269 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 3: forty five or so money line. 270 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 4: I think that's really solid analysis, Billy. I like the 271 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 4: way you said it. 272 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 2: I don't think he's necessarily going to win, but if 273 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 2: he does, it's more likely to be inside the distance 274 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 2: than the market is, indicating that it is his ITD 275 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 2: odds should be closer to his money line. This is 276 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:24,160 Speaker 2: something I see all the time with fighters whose win 277 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 2: conditions seems to only be by finish in a fight. 278 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 2: Their ITD price or their knockout price, submission price, whatever 279 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 2: they're more likely to win by, should be much closer 280 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,599 Speaker 2: in line to their money line. Way too big of 281 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 2: a gap here between plus twenty seven one twenty seven 282 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 2: on Oday Osborne and plus three hundred inside the distance. 283 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 2: I do agree with that assessment. He is also a 284 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 2: fast starter and Johnson is a slow starter. So if 285 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 2: anything Oday round one definitely interests me, and another way, 286 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 2: I would think about playing that fight a same game 287 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:54,160 Speaker 2: parlay with Oday and the under one and a half 288 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 2: rounds as opposed to the inside the distance. So get 289 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 2: some more juiced up odds on the first seven and 290 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 2: a half minutes where he's more more likely to finish 291 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 2: that fight. 292 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:02,839 Speaker 4: Let's move on to. 293 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:05,960 Speaker 2: Our best bets for Saturday Night and underdog play that 294 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 2: we were both going to talk about. However, her odds 295 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 2: have slowly moved into minus territory Alien Perez minus one 296 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 2: oh two on the money line, yet another fighter you 297 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 2: talked about her reluct ratings piece coming off of a 298 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 2: short notice fight where she debuted up a weight division, 299 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,320 Speaker 2: Alien Perez moving back to a proper weight class here 300 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 2: you like her to get the win. 301 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is another one where the luck rakings I 302 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 3: think really highlighted a lot of what I was looking at. 303 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 3: Both women are exactly seven and two, right, so just 304 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 3: on pure record, they should be pretty evenly matched. But 305 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 3: Perez's two losses one she came up a weight class, 306 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 3: as you mentioned, on short notice. Her other she lost 307 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 3: by disqualification because she threw an illegal strike, So hard 308 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 3: to say she was really beaten there. Cohen is seven 309 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:50,680 Speaker 3: and two, but she's been finished in both of her losses, 310 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 3: one of which was against a one and two pro 311 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 3: fighter who hasn't even fought since, and she made it 312 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:58,440 Speaker 3: into the UFC with a split decision win on the 313 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 3: Contender series. She was saved by the bell in that fight. 314 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 3: The fight ended with her opponent riding her about to 315 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,560 Speaker 3: get a rear naked choke razor close split decision could 316 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:09,240 Speaker 3: have gone either way. So just one of the two 317 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 3: fighters with the similar record has far better stoppage. Up 318 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,440 Speaker 3: side has never been finished. You know, her losses are 319 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 3: a little bit questionable or a little bit excusable, I 320 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 3: should say, And the other fighter has two split decision wins, 321 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 3: hasn't really shown me much. Perez should be the favorite here. 322 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 3: I take her down to about minus one ten. I 323 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 3: think you can still get around even money right now. 324 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 3: You know, if you read the article, you might have 325 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 3: got her at plus money earlier. But even at roughly 326 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 3: even money, I really think she should be a heavier 327 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 3: favorite here. 328 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, I projected Perez a fifty five percent, so I 329 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 2: agree she should be favored. I would bet her two 330 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 2: about minus one ten minus one fifteen. I think she 331 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 2: is the grappling upside. I don't think Cohen is fully 332 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 2: developed yet. Her fight on Contender Series in the past 333 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 2: would not have been enough to get her a UFC contract. 334 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 2: They've been much more generous giving out those contracts of 335 00:14:56,680 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 2: late maybe two three years from now. She beats Perez 336 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 2: pretty handily. Levels up her skills a bit more, but 337 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 2: at this stage of their respective careers, I think Perez 338 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 2: should be favored Colin Moore upside in the future, but 339 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 2: not right now. So Perez on the money line a 340 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 2: play for me as well, and my final money line 341 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 2: play of the evening. I'm gonna call it my best 342 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 2: bet for Frankly, I like all these bets about the same, 343 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 2: and if anything, I would maybe make cry Law at 344 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 2: minus one seventy my best bet. But one money line 345 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 2: bet I haven't talked about, which doesn't necessarily align with 346 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 2: my projections because I do make him about minus one 347 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 2: ten is Victor Martinez, who is sitting as a pick 348 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 2: him against. 349 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 4: Jordan leave It. 350 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 2: I like Martinez in this spot for a lot of 351 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 2: stylistic reasons. I do think leave It is pretty finish 352 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 2: relying here, and I think his finish prop should be 353 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 2: closer to his money line price. He doesn't have the 354 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 2: best top control, does have the grappling upside, but if 355 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 2: Leavitt is going to get to the positions he needs 356 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 2: to in order to win this fight, he's probably going 357 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 2: to win by submission or finish it via positional TKO. 358 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 2: If Martinez is able to avoid those bad grappling positions. 359 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 2: I think he eventually boxes leave It up and finishes 360 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 2: him or just outclasses him to a pretty wide decision 361 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 2: by landing significantly more damage. Much better striker has shown 362 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 2: some grappling concerns on the defensive end regionally, and this 363 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 2: is the one fighter I've brought up on this podcast 364 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 2: who does not have the grappling advantage that I'm betting 365 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 2: in their fight. But I do think martinez defensive grappling 366 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 2: is underrated and is getting better. That is one thing 367 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 2: I've seen from him in his recent fights. It seems 368 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 2: like he is improving in his weakest area, and I 369 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 2: know he is a clear striking advantage here. Also has 370 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 2: a clear physicality advantage as well, And even though leave 371 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 2: It as a really good grappler when opponents are stronger 372 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:44,760 Speaker 2: than him, which is generally the case in his weight class, 373 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 2: because he's just not the most physically strong guy, when 374 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 2: you're able to out muscle him, he can't really get 375 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 2: his game plan going. So Martinez on the money line 376 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 2: and to pick him price again, that's right where I 377 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 2: have it projected. The one bet I've given out on 378 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 2: here that doesn't necessarily offer me a technic goal edge 379 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 2: when I'm betting it, but I do think the stylistics 380 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 2: point to Martinez being more of a favorite than the 381 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:08,440 Speaker 2: pick on price suggests. Billy going with Alien Perez at 382 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,399 Speaker 2: minus one oh two is his best bet. He likes 383 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 2: ode Osbordy inside the distance. I like Joe Silecki and 384 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:16,879 Speaker 2: Tatiana Suarez, both by submission as our top props in 385 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 2: the andre A Munies versus Brandon Allen fight, I like 386 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 2: the over one and a half and I like Alan 387 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 2: by decision at plus five hundred. Billy likes Allen at 388 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 2: plus one eighty four. We both like Dontel Mays as 389 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 2: an underdog at plus one ten. I like Jazmin jess 390 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:31,879 Speaker 2: Udavicius at plus one ten as well. And then finally 391 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 2: in the main event, Nikita Krailov minus one seventy for me, 392 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 2: Billy is going to span in the first three rounds 393 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:41,959 Speaker 2: at plus one ninety five. That'll do it for us 394 00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:44,400 Speaker 2: for the UFC Vegas seventy betting preview on the Action 395 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:48,840 Speaker 2: Network podcast presented by FanDuel. Find more of our picks 396 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:52,119 Speaker 2: more of our content on actionnetwork dot com and in 397 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 2: the Action Network ap which is free to download Best 398 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:56,919 Speaker 2: of Luck with all of your bets this weekend, and 399 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 2: we'll see you next week. 400 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:10,199 Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 401 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 402 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:16,120 Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler