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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Single best idea in the quarter ending Monday, I don't care.

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Speaker 2: I ended it today and we had a wonderful set

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Speaker 2: of conversations. Just the overview, not sixty thousand feet but

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Speaker 2: twenty thousand feet, lots of really good over James Steele

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Speaker 2: on Gold at HSBC was wonderful, free of beamish in

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Speaker 2: studio from Ts Lombard in London, just wonderful on the

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Speaker 2: Pacific rim and what we're going to see from China

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Speaker 2: quickly here though, On a Friday, Trey Guesci was in

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Speaker 2: with FS Investments and we looked at the optimism of

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Speaker 2: the market and he did as I do when I

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Speaker 2: think of someone like Michael Darta at Roth Capital, the

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Speaker 2: same thing, the idea of looking not at real GDP

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Speaker 2: or real wages, but the top line, the animal spirit,

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Speaker 2: nominal GDP.

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Speaker 3: It's nominal GDP that drives revenue. And even last quarter

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Speaker 3: when you had real GDP contract nomal GDP expanded over

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Speaker 3: a three percent annualized rate. And clearly we're going to

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Speaker 3: get much better real growth this year. However, remember the

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Speaker 3: biggest struggle from the trade conflict is not how much

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Speaker 3: it reduces revenue. It's how much it impinges corporate margins,

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Speaker 3: and corporate margin expectations for growth coming into the year

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Speaker 3: were already over the optimistic, primarily because the most important

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Speaker 3: systemic tech companies already told you their margins were going

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Speaker 3: to expand that we're going to contract because of all

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Speaker 3: the investments are doing in AI. So we see it

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Speaker 3: revenue positive earnings of Obviously, earnings estimates have come down rightfully,

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Speaker 3: But I think at the end of the day, the

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Speaker 3: technical strength of markets continues to be underestimated, as well

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Speaker 3: as the continued strength of the consumer Trey.

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Speaker 2: I ask you there on the non recent ession that

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Speaker 2: we've enjoyed the first half of twenty twenty five, the

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Speaker 2: market is absolutely remarkable. What's great about Renaissance Macro is

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Speaker 2: not only the quality of Neil Dutta, but he's working

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Speaker 2: with Jeff de Graf, who was literally a must read

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Speaker 2: out a Lehman years ago. Jeff de graph and Neil

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Speaker 2: Dutta synthesizing in economics with technical analysis and fundamental views

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Speaker 2: of a stock market. On the stock market, the economist Neil.

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Speaker 4: Dutta clearly Tom the pain trade is stocks go higher.

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Speaker 4: I mean you have the market at basically new highs,

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Speaker 4: and you know, it looks like bears out number of bulls.

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Speaker 4: So that's, you know, I mean, pretty good sign the

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Speaker 4: pain trade is higher.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 4: Look, I mean you know the I think you know,

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Speaker 4: the stock market is a very useful discounting mechanism, so

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Speaker 4: it's always important to keep an eye on it, especially

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Speaker 4: when you have a cautious economic view like I do.

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Speaker 4: But you know, it's also worth pointing out that it's

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Speaker 4: not a perfect counting mechanism, right, So when I think

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Speaker 4: about why stocks have gone up, you know, it's earnings

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Speaker 4: rates and risk premia and earnings estimates keep going higher.

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Speaker 4: Has been coming down, you know, you're getting soothing words

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Speaker 4: on trade, and interest rates have been coming down as

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Speaker 4: the markets bet you know, I guess more in the

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Speaker 4: direction of our fedview. So that's what's powering the stock

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Speaker 4: market higher, which kind of raises the stakes for what

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Speaker 4: earnings looks like going forward.

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Speaker 2: On July fifteenth, I believe it's JP Morgan begins the

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Speaker 2: major earning season out. Absolutely fascinating, folks. I'm speechless over

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Speaker 2: what we've seen in economics, finance, investment, and yes, international

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Speaker 2: relations just deep into this June. It has been just extraordinary,

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Speaker 2: to say the least, on our podcast Yes on Apple,

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Speaker 2: on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. This is a single best

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Speaker 2: idea

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Speaker 1: Seven