1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,880 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action awesome. 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,959 Speaker 1: All right, here we go all the test throwing in joy. 3 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: We're sitting up to cash. We'll see most gamblers when 4 00:00:17,840 --> 00:00:21,760 Speaker 1: they go to gamble, they go to wind. That's incredible. 5 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money. All right, 6 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 1: this is the ultimate kabine if you want to pull 7 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: and we are come away. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, 8 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 1: presented by bet MGM. I'm your host, Chris Raybaund of 9 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: the Action Network, and this is your AFC betting preview, 10 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: Part one for twenty twenty four. In this episode will 11 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: be previewing the AFC North and the AFC West. Will 12 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,480 Speaker 1: be back with Part two tomorrow with the other two 13 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 1: AFC divisions, and then the NFC will drop Wednesday, so 14 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 1: be sure to give all of them listen here to 15 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: help me break down the outlooks of each team in 16 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: the AFC North and the AFC West. The Prime Minister 17 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 1: of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck, what's going on? Glad to 18 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 1: be back with you. 19 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 2: Oh, it's good to be back. In just a couple 20 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 2: of weeks, we will be sweating out NFL action on 21 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 2: a beautiful Sunday afternoon, beginning our long trep to the 22 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 2: Lombardi Trophy. Hopefully I have another profitable year. Let's get 23 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 2: to it. 24 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 1: Let's jump right in. Baltimore Ravens are the team with 25 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 1: the highest win total in the AFC North, the flight 26 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: favorite at bet MGM ten and a half is a 27 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: win total minus one twenty to the over, and they 28 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 1: are plus one thirty five to win the division. This 29 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: is a team that you're always very very dialed in 30 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: on stuck. So I'll open the floor to you. And 31 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 1: when we look at the Baltimore Ravens heading into this year, 32 00:01:56,520 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 1: coming off that kind of head scratching AFC a title game, 33 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: a game plan offensively, what do you see? 34 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, still not over that loss. Mahomes strikes again taking 35 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 2: out both of my futures. But the game plan was 36 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 2: beyond asinine. I have no other words for it. What 37 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 2: the Ravens were trying to do, not running it on 38 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 2: early downs, not using playaction, not using all of the 39 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 2: just everything that they did all year and everything that 40 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 2: the chief struggled with. But whatever, We're onto a new season. 41 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 2: But the reason I do bring that up and wanted 42 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 2: to say that is because, like that was the Ravens 43 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 2: to me, were the best team in the NFL eight year. 44 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 2: That was their chance. Like they had everything. They had 45 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson MVP season, They had health on offense, they 46 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 2: had an elite defense with McDonald running the show. Their 47 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 2: special teams were great as always. You know, you have 48 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 2: a home AFC championship game. Everything was there for the taking. 49 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:55,360 Speaker 2: And it's not gonna be as easy this year. There's 50 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 2: definitely some more questions on this team. And you know it. 51 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 2: Last year, while everything did go with the team was loaded. 52 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 2: I mean just look at any advanced metric, but they 53 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 2: did get some breaks that they might not get this year. 54 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 2: Played Stroud in this first ever start with the beat 55 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 2: up offensive line, hurt Burrow in week two. You know, 56 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 2: you get Minshew dtr you get pickt Tannehill, then he 57 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 2: gets hurt in Willis outdoor Pumpkin Goth Dobbs Burrow, then 58 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 2: Burrow gets hurt Browning. You know, you played Rudolph. So 59 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 2: they had a lot of beneficial quarterbacks that they did face. 60 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 2: I think like nine beneficial spots, including like injuries. Maybe 61 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 2: that won't be the case this year and definitely or 62 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 2: most likely won't be the case in weeks one through five. 63 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 2: Brutal schedule to start the year, including the opener, which 64 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 2: everyone knows about, at Kansas City, but they're also at Dallas, 65 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 2: they host Buffalo, go to Cincinnati before the schedule lightens 66 00:03:57,720 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 2: up a bit. But remember in the AFC North, there's 67 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 2: really no breaks. But the biggest questions I have for 68 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 2: this team coming into this year Number one the offensive line. 69 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 2: That's what everyone's gonna be talking about in Baltimore, and 70 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 2: everyone's gonna be watching. You know, you lose three starters. 71 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:19,039 Speaker 2: Moses I think is a big gloss. Zeitler's a big loss. Simpson, meh, 72 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 2: But you're gonna be relying on it. Looks like Rosengarden, 73 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 2: the rookie is gonna start at right tackle. Your left 74 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 2: guard is gonna be borre He's you're basically starting too. 75 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 2: He was hurt last year. Basically starting two rookies on 76 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 2: the offensive line, you're moving most likely a tackle to guard. 77 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:38,280 Speaker 2: And you know, Stanley's older, not getting any younger, and 78 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 2: he's can he stay healthy? And his production is starting 79 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 2: to slip and even Tyer Lindebaum is one of the 80 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 2: best centers in the NFL. He's nicked up right now, 81 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:50,159 Speaker 2: so the offensive line is a major issue. Wide receiver 82 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 2: depth question, Mark and Bateman step up. That's can he 83 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 2: break out and be consistent on the other side of Flowers. 84 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 2: I do expect more two tight ends sets this year. 85 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 2: You have a healthy Mark Andrews, you have likely Keaton Mitchell. 86 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,280 Speaker 2: When will he return? How effective will he be in 87 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 2: his exposedness? Obviously you had Derrick Henry the Ravens. You 88 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 2: know a lot of these teams in the NFL, they 89 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 2: do have an identity. You're seeing more finesse passing offenses 90 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 2: over the years, and the Ravens are a physical team, 91 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:22,840 Speaker 2: one of the most physical teams in the league. Just 92 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 2: look at what they've done in the trenches. You had Henry, 93 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 2: So the running game should be good, but Ken the 94 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 2: offensive line hold up and you know Ken Bateman step 95 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 2: up at that wide receiver two position. Because the offense 96 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:37,480 Speaker 2: was great last year, but I think in order to 97 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 2: reach where they want to go, it needs to be 98 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 2: even better because I think the defense is going to 99 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,600 Speaker 2: take a step back. Mike McDonald was a wizard. I 100 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 2: talked about it all last year with his game plans, 101 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 2: everything that he did on a week to week basis 102 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 2: and you know they use a couple other assistants as well. 103 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 2: You lose guys like Clowney, Patrick Queen, I think is overrated. 104 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 2: I don't think it's a huge loss. I lose Geno 105 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 2: Stone at safety, so the secondary is still loaded. You 106 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 2: still have Rokwan Smith. The defensive line worries me some 107 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 2: and just the coaching exact or you stayed internal. So 108 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 2: it's gonna be the same kind of defense based Nickel 109 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 2: rushed for disguised as sims lighter boxes. But I do 110 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 2: think the defense is going to take a step back. 111 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 2: The one good thing about the schedule is the net 112 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 2: rest and I think that's more important for certain teams 113 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:32,599 Speaker 2: and others, and the Ravens are one of them. They're 114 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 2: twenty one and five under Harball with three plus net 115 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 2: day's rest edge. They have that four times this year, 116 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 2: which is the most in the league. So yeah, I 117 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:44,840 Speaker 2: think the defense is going to take a step back. 118 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 2: The offense is going to come down of the offensive 119 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 2: line and can they Can they maintain the same health 120 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 2: they have they you know the past couple of years 121 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:54,600 Speaker 2: before last year they doubled a ton of injuries. Can 122 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 2: they have that same luck? So I do think the 123 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 2: d takes a step slight step back. You remember the 124 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:01,720 Speaker 2: run dye was vulnerable too. Now they would just throttle teams, 125 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 2: especially when they played good teams, they would just jump 126 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 2: out on you. Then their complex defense, their sim pressures 127 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 2: when teams are forced to pass, you know, and you 128 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 2: have a guy like Kyle Hamilton who you can move 129 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 2: all over in that secondary, very difficult on offenses. But 130 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 2: if they're not, you know, jumping out and getting those 131 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 2: same leads, it's it's gonna be tougher. So yeah, worried 132 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 2: about the pass rush, the run d wide receiver depth, 133 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 2: and most importantly the offensive line. And it's worth noting 134 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 2: that they're a long time, very good offensive line coach, 135 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 2: Joe d He just had to step away from the 136 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 2: team due to health concerns. Hope everything goes well with him. 137 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 2: But you know, that's just throw that in there as well. 138 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 2: With all of this change on the offensive line, will 139 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 2: they be able to build continuity? And I just mentioned 140 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 2: the schedule early on. When you're, you know, trying to 141 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 2: mesh in a whole new offensive line with a bunch 142 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 2: of young guys without any experience, it's a tough test. 143 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 2: So I talked about earlier this season when we did 144 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 2: our kind of just high level episode. I like the 145 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 2: Ravens under I think at the time it was like 146 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 2: eleven and a half and eleven. It's down to ten 147 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 2: and a half now, which is kind of closer to 148 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 2: where I had it, So no play there, But I 149 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 2: am targeting another team for the division, which is a 150 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 2: semi fade of the Ravens win total. What are your thoughts. 151 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 1: I agree, I don't think the Ravens should be the 152 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: favorite for the division. And what I really see for 153 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 1: this team is, obviously the upside is still there. You know, 154 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:34,719 Speaker 1: you have a two time MVP and Lamar Jackson. You 155 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: still have a very good defense in terms of the 156 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: I think the personnel. But I think there's a lot 157 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:45,199 Speaker 1: more fragility right because you mentioned the brain drain and 158 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 1: we've seen that, you know slip, you know Steiny, a 159 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:50,679 Speaker 1: team like the Philadelphia Eagles, even after they start what 160 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:53,439 Speaker 1: was it nine or ten and one last year, you 161 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: have a thirty year old Derrick Henry and that so 162 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,040 Speaker 1: that you know, when did he start to climb and 163 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 1: to a level where you know he's not really worth 164 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 1: that investment and now he's He's kind of what you're 165 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: really banking on it running back. You don't have Edwards, 166 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: you don't have Dobbins. You know, Mitchell's not coming back 167 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 1: to start the season, so and you are still going 168 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 1: to have to rely on the run. Lamar Jackson also 169 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 1: looks like you lost some weight, which I think is 170 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 1: interesting only because you know, you might have to rely 171 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: on him to, you know, more this season, because just 172 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: because I think the schedule is gonna be harder and 173 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:29,839 Speaker 1: you might he might have to be dropping back more. 174 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:31,959 Speaker 1: So I don't love that, you know, even though it 175 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: maybe it might help him in some other areas. And 176 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:36,679 Speaker 1: you know, just coming into the season, this is something 177 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 1: where usually we see this team above you know, above 178 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: average offensive line. This year Pro Football Focus has him 179 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,439 Speaker 1: ranked number twenty five, you know, and it's just kind 180 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: of could go a lot of different ways. So the 181 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:51,079 Speaker 1: upside is there, but I think the floor for this 182 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:54,079 Speaker 1: team is a lot lower than it has been. And 183 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 1: I agree with you. I think last year was the 184 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 1: time to bet on the Ravens, now this year it's 185 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 1: tas like it's a little more of a fade. The 186 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: wind total, I agree, came about ten and a half 187 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:05,839 Speaker 1: ten ten and a half is where it should be. 188 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: But I just see a much more fragile Baltimore raven 189 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: team in twenty twenty four. 190 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 2: The questions of Derrick Henry, Well, people could say, well, 191 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 2: he was running down a bad offensive line, which is 192 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 2: true the past couple of years in Tennessee. But that 193 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:21,719 Speaker 2: could be the case again this year in Baltimore. So 194 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 2: if I had a better I would actually go under. 195 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 2: But I'm I'm projected right on. And if you start 196 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 2: listing the you know, the schedules, not like what do 197 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 2: I have this schedule? I have them with the seventh 198 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 2: hardest schedule in the NFL. And if you start listing 199 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 2: the best quarterbacks in the NFL, so you just go 200 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 2: ask somebody on the street name the best quarterbacks in 201 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,599 Speaker 2: the NFL. The Ravens probably played the first seven or 202 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 2: eight names that you list. So the and I just 203 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 2: mentioned before last year they faced all those backups. You 204 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 2: know Burrow when he was hurt, Burrow hurt twice, you 205 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 2: know Stroud in his first start. It's not going to 206 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:06,559 Speaker 2: be that easy this year, So under or nothing. But 207 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:08,679 Speaker 2: I think the market has come down to a more 208 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:09,440 Speaker 2: reasonable range. 209 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals also the win total of ten and a 210 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:15,959 Speaker 1: half juice to minus one twenty at bet MGM, the 211 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: division ods for Cincinnati plus one sixty five. They're favored 212 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:25,319 Speaker 1: in for me at least fourteen of their seventeen. And 213 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:29,199 Speaker 1: you know, the teams the spotsors are really dogs are 214 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 1: Baltimore and Case. So a real good chance I think 215 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:35,719 Speaker 1: for this team to rise up and potentially even get 216 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:37,560 Speaker 1: the number one seed, because remember they had that last 217 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 1: place schedule. So I really like that. You know, they 218 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:42,679 Speaker 1: get New England and get to avoid the rest of 219 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 1: the AFC East. They get Tennessee and get to avoid 220 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 1: you know, Houston and the rest of the South, and 221 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 1: they even get Carolina in the NFC South and games 222 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: against the g Men, Washington, Denver, Vegas. So I like 223 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: the schedule for Cincinnati. I liked that they were able 224 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 1: to finish in last place, but still give you some 225 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 1: confidence that they were still not eight. So I think 226 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 1: this is what you were alluding to when you said 227 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: you're targeting another team, talk to me about Cincy. 228 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:08,719 Speaker 2: I like the Bengals to win the division. It's coming 229 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:10,679 Speaker 2: down a little bit still like it. I mean, their win, 230 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 2: I think they're wintered on now I was like spot 231 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 2: on with the Ravens. I mean, it's like Penny's different. 232 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 2: Yeah at some places, but you can get a better 233 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 2: price on the Bengals to win the division a lot 234 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 2: of it, and I was yelling. I was yelling at 235 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:24,599 Speaker 2: Bengals fans on Twitter all that year. Why are you 236 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 2: rooting for Jake Browning to get you to the playoffs? 237 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:30,559 Speaker 2: You're not winning anything you want. I was as a 238 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 2: Ravens fan, I was like, the thing I'm afraid of 239 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:37,080 Speaker 2: is the Bengals with a healthy Burrow getting a last 240 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 2: play schedule. And that's what happened. 241 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: Well. 242 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,559 Speaker 2: Last year they played fourteen games versus teams over five hundred, 243 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 2: most in the past twenty five years, eleven playoff teams. Obviously, 244 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 2: some of those are double because you're in their division. 245 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 2: Because the AFC North was the first team since the 246 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 2: merger to have all four teams finish over five hundred. 247 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 2: So last year the schedule was brutal, and this year 248 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 2: it is the opposite. I have them, which is pretty 249 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:12,439 Speaker 2: wild because they play in the AFC North, but I 250 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:17,560 Speaker 2: have them with the fifth easiest schedule in the NFL. 251 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 2: And just to illustrate why that's the case and what 252 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 2: disadvantage means. In a rough and rugged division, you're gonna 253 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 2: have a lot of similar opponents. Here's the difference. Baltimore 254 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 2: is Buffalo and Tampa Bay. It's either unique opponents Buffalo 255 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 2: and Tampa Bay. Cleveland is Miami and New Orleans. Kitt 256 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,319 Speaker 2: has the Jets in Atlanta, and since he gets New 257 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 2: England and Carolina projected to be two of the worst 258 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:49,079 Speaker 2: teams in the NFL. So as opposed to the Rams, 259 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 2: they don't have a good prep schedule and rest edge. 260 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 2: They do have three short week road games, three games 261 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 2: and ten days late in the season, so there's some 262 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 2: tricky scheduling spots, but it's a pretty manageable schedule overall, 263 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 2: and you're presumably gonna have a healthy Burrow. They were 264 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,440 Speaker 2: a weird team last year in that they didn't have Burrow, 265 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 2: which is very unlucky, but the rest of the team 266 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 2: was pretty lucky. They were lucky in turnovers, lucky in penalties, 267 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 2: extreme offensive line. Now, so I think I think all 268 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 2: their offensive line started, all five starters started every single game. 269 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 2: So that's one of the things that I'm worried about 270 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 2: this year is you know, if Barrow stays healthy, can 271 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 2: everyone else or is there some injury regression? And you 272 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 2: look at the offensive line already. You know Deontay Smith, 273 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 2: who's going to be a depth piece, he's out for 274 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 2: the year. Amarius Mims, he's he's banged up, Trent Brown 275 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 2: is dinged up. What's new? I mean, if there's a 276 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:58,520 Speaker 2: I don't even know is he still yeah? I mean, 277 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 2: if there's a chance that Jackson Carmen is in there 278 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 2: right tackle at any point, and then it's very problematic 279 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 2: because Orlando Brown, he has his deficiencies. If the problem 280 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 2: with the Bengals over the last ten they can't draft 281 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 2: offensive lineman, I mean, they tried to address it in 282 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 2: free agency. Their offensive line has been just horrid bottom 283 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 2: five last three years in pass protection, like Cordell Volson's 284 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 2: probably like the best drafted offensive lineman they've had in 285 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 2: a long time. But you know, on the defense. So 286 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 2: I am a bit worried about just the offensive line 287 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 2: health with some of the guys that are banged up 288 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 2: right now in Trent Brown's history, But if they can 289 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 2: all stay healthy, I think the offensive line does have potential. 290 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 2: Then obviously you have a very good receiving corps. You 291 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 2: had Mike get SICKI as well to give you just 292 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 2: another option up the seam. And then I think from 293 00:15:58,120 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 2: what I've read it's hard because it's a unique injury. 294 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 2: Borrow should be okay, but time will tell. The defense 295 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 2: does have some questions. You know, you lose DJ Reader. 296 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 2: They were number one against the run with him last year, 297 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 2: dead last without him. It's a big loss. So you know, 298 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 2: I'm worried about the defensive line. There's young corners, so 299 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 2: you have you know, DJ Turner, Cam Taylor Brett. I 300 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 2: think Camp Taylor Brittle will be a league average corner 301 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 2: will be okay. DJ Turner. I have more questions about 302 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 2: maybe it's Dax Hill. There's rumblings that maybe Newton gets 303 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 2: in the mix. But they got to figure out the 304 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 2: cornerback situation. What I do think will help is they 305 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 2: addressed the safeties and that position. I talked about this 306 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 2: before last year with lou Anarumo, so key to what 307 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 2: he wants to do from a scheme and adjustment perspective, 308 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 2: and their safeties just fell off a cliff without Von 309 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 2: Bell and jes He Bates, who were just mainstays back there. 310 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 2: So you know, now you're you know, you bring back 311 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 2: Von Bell battle Flash, you bring in Geno Stone, who 312 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 2: I liked. So I think the safeties will kind of 313 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,640 Speaker 2: patch up some of those communication issues, the explosive play 314 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 2: issues that they've had. But cornerback and defensive line is 315 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 2: certainly an issue. Camp sample out for the year as well. 316 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,479 Speaker 2: That does hurt. So there's some questions on this defense, 317 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 2: but ultimately it's healthy Burrow with this schedule. While I 318 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 2: do have some questions about the Bengals, I do like 319 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:44,679 Speaker 2: them to win the division. 320 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they have math of upside because of 321 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 1: the schedule. I would take a shot at them, you know, 322 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 1: to win the number one feed. I think I've seen 323 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 1: it around six fifty because Burrow last year only about 324 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: four percent of the pressures allowed were charged to him. 325 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 1: According to Pro Football Focus, that was second lowest. So 326 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 1: if the O line does stay healthy, he's going to 327 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 1: be protected, He's going to be going against an easy schedule, 328 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:08,920 Speaker 1: and he can he can make up for some of 329 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:10,680 Speaker 1: the flaws of that defense if there are some. So 330 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 1: I really like the upside for Cincinnati and they are 331 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 1: might pick to win the division as well. The Action 332 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 1: Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM use bonus code 333 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 1: action when signing up to get up to fifteen hundred 334 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: hours back in bonus bets if your first bet does 335 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 1: not win. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 336 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, at Virginia, West Virginia, 337 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: and Wyoming, terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one 338 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 1: or older. Again, when problem call one eight hundred Gambler 339 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:50,159 Speaker 1: Browns eight and a half minus one forty to the 340 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 1: over is the win total plus five hundred or five 341 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:57,119 Speaker 1: to one to win the AFC Nors. Now, this is 342 00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 1: a Brown seam that still should have one of the 343 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 1: better offensive lines in the league, still should have one 344 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 1: of the top defenses in the league. So we have 345 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: to start with this question every year. What are we 346 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: getting out of Deshaun Watson In his two years with 347 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,920 Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns. His average yards per attempt is six 348 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,920 Speaker 1: and a half compared to eight point three over his 349 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: four seasons in Houston. So let's just start there is 350 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 1: what are the Browns gonna get from Deshaun Watson in 351 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 1: your opinion. 352 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,400 Speaker 2: This year, I don't say it, and I'm beginning reports 353 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:29,919 Speaker 2: on in camp and they just haven't been good. It's 354 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 2: been ugly. There's just been no progression. I don't know 355 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 2: if he's lost it. He's holding onto the ball too long, 356 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,159 Speaker 2: he's making hard throws. It's ugly. And you mentioned the 357 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 2: offensive line. Yes, on paper, they should be good. Last 358 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:44,760 Speaker 2: year they fell off a cliff of twenty six and 359 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,920 Speaker 2: adjusted linerds. That was because of injuries, right, they lost 360 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:53,359 Speaker 2: both offensive tackles Potonio interieror the offensive line still rock solid, 361 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 2: Tonio boaches teller, but the tackle situation going into the year, 362 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 2: and by the way, you're facing what parsons in Dallas, 363 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 2: Allen and Jacksonville. The Giants now have a good pass rush. 364 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 2: The Raiders defensive line with Crosby and now Wilkins in 365 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 2: the first four weeks, and their offensive tackle issues right 366 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 2: now are alarming to say the least. Conclude, does he 367 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 2: have any knees left? I don't know. I don't know 368 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,480 Speaker 2: if he's gonna be ready, if he even has any 369 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 2: ligaments left in his knees. Will's who has flaws? Still? 370 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 2: He is not seen practicing. Is he gonna be ready. 371 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 2: Hudson then gets hurt last preseason game this weekend, Adenji 372 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 2: gets hurt. If Fetti gets hurt, I mean you're down. 373 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 2: They had at one point that preseason game, they had 374 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 2: Lorenzo Thompson. I think he's an undrafted free agent and 375 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:51,360 Speaker 2: Roy Beta Betak. I didn't know that was I thought 376 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,399 Speaker 2: I'd heard of every NFL player. He's from the international 377 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 2: pipeline program from Nigeria. He's never played in college. Well, 378 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:00,639 Speaker 2: I've never heard of him. They there were the tackles 379 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:04,719 Speaker 2: in the game, So there is major questions. And by 380 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 2: the way, you also lost your amazing offensive line coach 381 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 2: in Callahan, who went with his son to Tennessee. I 382 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 2: might see some dividends are We'll talk about that later. 383 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 2: So yeah, that that could be a major issue. The 384 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:22,199 Speaker 2: tackles and if they are healthy, because if they are, 385 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 2: then yeah, this offensive line is e leade because you 386 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 2: have now you have Dewan Jones, like if Will's isn't ready, 387 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 2: like there's talk of like do you move Conkland to 388 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:35,719 Speaker 2: left tackle if he's ready and put Jones at right tackle. 389 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 2: And Conklin did play left tackle at the Leaving College. 390 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,639 Speaker 2: But the health of those tackles. I have my eyes 391 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:46,200 Speaker 2: on running back Nick Chubb. When will he be healthy? 392 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:50,719 Speaker 2: You know, the running back depth isn't great. Foreman is okay, 393 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 2: but he got banged up too, So yeah, he got 394 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:57,520 Speaker 2: banged up. He's obviously not Nick Chubb. And but but 395 00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 2: I really just think this comes it's it's a real 396 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:03,040 Speaker 2: shame because as you know, they gave two hundred and 397 00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 2: thirty million, fully guaranteed sixty four million dollar cap pit 398 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,679 Speaker 2: this year on Deshaun Watson. I mean, and last year 399 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,479 Speaker 2: he had a seventeen and a half percent off target rate. 400 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 2: I think that was tied with Trevor Simeon. Is the 401 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 2: worst in the league. And the rest of the roster 402 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,400 Speaker 2: is ready to win, like if they just had any 403 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 2: like any other average slightly above average quarterback with all 404 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,200 Speaker 2: that other money they would have had too, because the 405 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 2: roster was built, has been built very intelligently. They've drafted well. 406 00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 2: I think Stefanski's a super sharp coach, and it's just 407 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 2: the quarterback. He's not living up to expectations and they 408 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,160 Speaker 2: gave him an astronomical amount of money. I mean, he's 409 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,640 Speaker 2: been he's playing like a bottom five quarterback getting paid 410 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:50,440 Speaker 2: like the top quarterback in the league. So yeah, this 411 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:52,439 Speaker 2: all comes out of Watson. If you believe Watson, then 412 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 2: you're probably gonna I would buy Brown's upside. The defense 413 00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 2: is going to be really good. Your off ball linebackers. 414 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 2: You replaced Walker and Talkie Talkie with bush Hicks. That's fine, 415 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 2: Dad a Jerry Judy. We'll see if he can correct 416 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,880 Speaker 2: some of his drop issues. But he had some electricity 417 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 2: at least to the offense. And this defense will be 418 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 2: elite once again. I mean last year they were great, 419 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 2: had some inconsistencies. They're very aggressive that defense, that's what 420 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,360 Speaker 2: it's going to be. But they they actually were un lucky. 421 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 2: I mean last year they were only minus nine turnover 422 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 2: margin overall, Like in the red zone, they were bad. 423 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,120 Speaker 2: So they didn't have like a lot of luck either. 424 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 2: So I think that there's I think this defense is 425 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 2: gonna be really good again. They got pressure in under 426 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,880 Speaker 2: two and a half seconds thirty four percent of the time, 427 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 2: and the past DA was a top three unit when 428 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 2: they didn't get pressure. That's what you want. Just they 429 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 2: have the personnel for the Schwartz wide nine D heavy man, 430 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 2: lots of press, single high bringing six you know, Thornhill 431 00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 2: kind of roaming in the back, Nickel heavy. Why can 432 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 2: you do that? Well, One, you have Miles Garrett. You 433 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 2: can move them all around. But they have three outstanding 434 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:12,200 Speaker 2: man corners. And keep an eye on Greg Newsom and 435 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,440 Speaker 2: his status early in the year. He's out right now. 436 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 2: But Denzel Ward do kind of worry about all these 437 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 2: concussions that he's getting. But Denzel Ward Martin Emerson is 438 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 2: an absolute stud. But you have those three corners, then 439 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 2: you have Delpit in the box. You can do a 440 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 2: lot of things with him. You can do exactly what 441 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:31,760 Speaker 2: Schwartz wants to do. Get a lot of pressure, be 442 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 2: super aggressive on that defensive line, and then you have 443 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 2: really good man corners in the outside. It's the heaviest 444 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:40,879 Speaker 2: man defense in the NFL. So the defense will be 445 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 2: good again. I think unders early are gonna be good 446 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:48,359 Speaker 2: with the Browns. I just mentioned the defensive lines that 447 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 2: they're gonna face and the offensive line. I don't think, 448 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 2: no matter what, it's not gonna be fully healthy. If 449 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 2: Watson is gonna get there, it's gonna take them time. 450 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 2: The Jorkiez their punner, I don't know what he's taking. 451 00:24:58,160 --> 00:24:59,879 Speaker 2: He's always been able to boom and he's booming them. 452 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 2: He's booming them even further in preseason. He's had sixty 453 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 2: five yard punts. He can flip the field. Yeah, for 454 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 2: their first six are on the road, and they play 455 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 2: some good defensive lines, so that offensive line and you know, 456 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 2: Watson's not gonna I don't think he can make up 457 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,360 Speaker 2: for a bad offensive line at this point. The other 458 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 2: thing is like they're they added you know, if you 459 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 2: look at their their roster, like they don't have any 460 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,200 Speaker 2: depth at tight end now, I mean unless you're like 461 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 2: a Jordan Akens guy. But they bring in Judy, they 462 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:33,040 Speaker 2: draft Thrash, they have more still there, and they went 463 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 2: to eleven personnel much more last year, which is like 464 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,199 Speaker 2: what Watson wants to do. But that's not the Stefanski offense, 465 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 2: which is more heavier personnel, and that's like his how 466 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 2: he can ski. He schemes up play so well with 467 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:50,240 Speaker 2: that type of offense. So like there's kind of a 468 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 2: misfit here. We'll see what Ken Dorsey doesh Sevanci will 469 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,879 Speaker 2: still be a play call. Maybe you'll see more RPOs, 470 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 2: but yeah, I like, I just don't think that Watson 471 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,919 Speaker 2: from what I've seen is capable of, you know, running 472 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 2: this eleven personnel offense that he can step back and 473 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:15,920 Speaker 2: just sling it all over the field like he used 474 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:17,479 Speaker 2: to in Houston, which, by the way, when he did 475 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:21,160 Speaker 2: do that too, he was indoors, not dealing with any weather. 476 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:23,879 Speaker 2: You know. I also have to remember the defense is 477 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:25,399 Speaker 2: going to be really good, just a matter of like 478 00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 2: are they super League elite really good? But last year 479 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 2: eleven of the seventeen quarterbacks they faced were either hurt, 480 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 2: right you Lawrence who was playing on one leg, Burrow 481 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 2: in the first game of the year, who was you know, 482 00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:45,920 Speaker 2: basically Matt Jones or now backups. And they also played 483 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 2: sant fram without Samuel and I believe Trent Williams is 484 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 2: out too. So I mean you look at some of 485 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:56,359 Speaker 2: the quarterbacks that he's hurt, Burrow, pick it twice, you know, Tannehill, 486 00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:04,840 Speaker 2: Minshew Clayton, Tune justin fields case, Keenum, Trevor Simeon, Jake Browning. 487 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:11,240 Speaker 2: So yeah, it was they definitely faced a pretty beneficial schedule, 488 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,399 Speaker 2: and by the way they went eleven and six, I 489 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:15,440 Speaker 2: know they had bad injury luck. They had five game 490 00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:19,160 Speaker 2: winning drives six and two in one possession games five 491 00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 2: to zero in games by a field goal or less, 492 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:27,880 Speaker 2: and Hopkins was money and other kickers weren't. Said great 493 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 2: field goal luck, which was huge when you play all 494 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 2: those close games and win them all. So yeah, there 495 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,320 Speaker 2: could be some close game regression as well. But ultimately 496 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,159 Speaker 2: just comes down to a question. Obviously, it's like the 497 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 2: offensive line got to watch that. This is just a 498 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 2: question about Watson. Yeah, and I don't see it. 499 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,639 Speaker 1: I don't either. I think there's too many red flags 500 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:51,440 Speaker 1: with Watson. I don't think Winston gives you anything in 501 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 1: terms of, you know, enough behind him to change the 502 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,119 Speaker 1: projection that much. And you know, you mentioned the win 503 00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,480 Speaker 1: total eleven wins for them last year, but their point 504 00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 1: differential was that of a nine point four win team. 505 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:07,400 Speaker 1: So teams like that tend to regress in the next year. 506 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,239 Speaker 1: So yeah, you know, this is a team. I think 507 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 1: they're gonna start hot, so it might be a team 508 00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 1: to fade in season. You know, they face the Giants, Raiders, 509 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 1: and Commanders in the first five weeks, along with the 510 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 1: Cowboys and Jags, so they could be three and they 511 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:23,159 Speaker 1: could be four and one or even three and two, 512 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:24,879 Speaker 1: and you can fade them to miss the playoffs. Or 513 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,640 Speaker 1: you know, go lower on their win total. But yeah, 514 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,920 Speaker 1: right now they're under eight and a half is juiced positively, 515 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,480 Speaker 1: and they're over is juiced up. So I would lean 516 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 1: under for the Browns, but let's keep it moving with 517 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,800 Speaker 1: the Steelers because they're always fascinating. Tomlin has had no 518 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 1: losing seasons, and they're twelve and five over their win 519 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 1: total and putting four know their last four years, it's 520 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,160 Speaker 1: eight and a half, so right there at five hundred 521 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,920 Speaker 1: but plus one ten, so you are getting some plus 522 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 1: money juice to the over. However, I only I have 523 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 1: them favored in about I think six six games. So 524 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,680 Speaker 1: this is kind of one that can go a lot 525 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 1: of ways. But Toman always finds a way to get 526 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,200 Speaker 1: it done. Does he do that again in twenty twenty 527 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 1: four stuff? Yeah? 528 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 2: And by the way, before Browns fans get out of me, yes, 529 00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 2: I know, they won eleven games and they won all 530 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,840 Speaker 2: the close games, but they did do it with four 531 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 2: different quarterbacks winning games. And it also bow tackles both 532 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 2: safeties Potonio Chubb. I get it. There's cases on both sides, 533 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 2: but at the end of the day, it's just about Watson. 534 00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,560 Speaker 2: But yeah, in regards to the Steelers seventeen straight non 535 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,400 Speaker 2: losing seasons. I'm sure you'll hear that a lot ten 536 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 2: and seven last year, but played more like an eight 537 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 2: win team. They did have the second hardest schedule in 538 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,480 Speaker 2: the NFL. Guess what I have them with the second 539 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 2: artist schedule in the NFL this year as well. They 540 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 2: were out gained in twelve of seventeen games, sixteen in 541 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:47,320 Speaker 2: NFL history. To win ten games despite being outscored by 542 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:51,760 Speaker 2: twenty plus points. It's a very interesting case study. I 543 00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 2: do show value on the under I project seven and 544 00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 2: a half seven point five. Last year. They went nine 545 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 2: two and one possession games. Since twenty twenty, here are 546 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,080 Speaker 2: the three best teams in one possion games. Steelers thirty one, 547 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 2: eleven and one seventy three point eight percent win percentage, 548 00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,080 Speaker 2: Chiefs number two twenty six and twelve sixty eight point 549 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:19,440 Speaker 2: four percent makes sense, Bucker mahomes most importantly read, and 550 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,200 Speaker 2: then the Bucks eighteen and eleven sixty two point one percent, 551 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 2: thirty one eleven one. You won't take it back even 552 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:28,600 Speaker 2: further fifty one, twenty four and two. Over the last 553 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 2: seven seasons, in one session game sixty eight percent and 554 00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,600 Speaker 2: it's not like they've had you know, it was Roethlisberger 555 00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 2: when he had no shoulder and then whatever cast of 556 00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,080 Speaker 2: clowns they've had a quarterback since. It's not like they've 557 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 2: they've it's they've basically been For my college football listeners, 558 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 2: make sure you check out our previous there and big 559 00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 2: deuts on campus, they've basically been there. Iowa, like Iowa 560 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 2: college football, just have these anemic offenses, elite defenses, and 561 00:30:56,520 --> 00:31:01,040 Speaker 2: then they just find a way they don't beat themselves, 562 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 2: and then they just find a way late to win, 563 00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,320 Speaker 2: force a turnover at the right time. I mean, it's crazy, 564 00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:10,480 Speaker 2: and they've been doing it consistently, Like is there a 565 00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 2: Russia coming or is this just who they are? I 566 00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 2: always say it with Iowa, but I mean their's special 567 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 2: teams weren't even good that or it just was crazy. 568 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 2: They just they benefit from a ton of turners. But 569 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 2: it seems like that always happens in the fourth quarter. 570 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 2: I might maybe I but the under but I don't. 571 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,360 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, I do show value from 572 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,120 Speaker 2: a number of perspective. The other thing I don't like 573 00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:29,600 Speaker 2: for this schedule for the Steelers, they're bad teams that 574 00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 2: they face are on the road, historically bad spots for Tomlin, right, 575 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,880 Speaker 2: so they're he's not farewell raw Rock coach. You know, 576 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,880 Speaker 2: going on the road against winning teams, they're usually always 577 00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 2: prepared at home. You know, these are teams on your schedule. 578 00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,479 Speaker 2: I have seen no schedule. One of the hardest schedules 579 00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:48,920 Speaker 2: in the league. These are the teams that that you 580 00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:55,160 Speaker 2: should beat. They're all on the road Atlanta, Denver, Indianapolis, Vegas, Washington, 581 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:59,680 Speaker 2: so that might not work in their favor. But this 582 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 2: also is a quarterback question. Similar to the Browns. They 583 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 2: bring in Wilson in fields, I assume Wilson is going 584 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 2: to start. You it should be an upgrade over last year. 585 00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:12,760 Speaker 2: They brought him in for nothing, so why not. They're 586 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,560 Speaker 2: not paying them. The Broncos are, and it's better than Picket. 587 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 2: You have an Art Smith, the new offensive coordinator, has 588 00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:23,520 Speaker 2: his flaws, but better than Matt Canada. So at least 589 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:29,400 Speaker 2: they upgraded there. The offensive line definitely need to build continuity. 590 00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,040 Speaker 2: Left tackle. Is it gonna be Jones or more? I 591 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 2: don't know. It looks like Zach Frazier, the rookie who 592 00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:36,840 Speaker 2: I like from West Virginia. I think it's gonna be 593 00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 2: a good player. I thought I thought the Sewers did 594 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:39,800 Speaker 2: have a really good Druft. He looks like he's gonna 595 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:43,000 Speaker 2: start at center. Fott new who's gonna the rookie looks 596 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,280 Speaker 2: like he's locked in at right tackle start week one. 597 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:48,640 Speaker 2: But they've been like Kurt and they've been more in. 598 00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:52,400 Speaker 2: Jones been right left. They haven't really built continuity and finally, 599 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 2: I think played left tackle on college. So but More 600 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,560 Speaker 2: and Cole were bad last year, so I think like Jones, 601 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,760 Speaker 2: I think are although Jones gave up over a seven 602 00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:02,720 Speaker 2: percent pressure rate, so the offensive line is still questioned 603 00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:04,960 Speaker 2: to me, but it's improving, like they're spending draft capital there. 604 00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,600 Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be good in the future. Still 605 00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 2: have questions for this year. You know, they were twenty 606 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,600 Speaker 2: six and pressure Rader lowed last year. Art Art Smit's 607 00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:15,640 Speaker 2: still gonna be a run heavy offense, still gonna kind 608 00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:17,600 Speaker 2: of look like Iowa, but there's gonna be more play 609 00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,920 Speaker 2: action and like more effective motion. I mean back Canada 610 00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,040 Speaker 2: would just run on first down, run on second and long, 611 00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 2: and then pick it with try to throw it down 612 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:28,960 Speaker 2: down the sideline. That was their entire offense, and they 613 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:30,480 Speaker 2: would never run plats and even they were running on 614 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,200 Speaker 2: first and second every time, it'll be better than that 615 00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 2: they were. That was little Iowa does, so the offense 616 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:40,360 Speaker 2: should be a little more modern. Art Smith does want 617 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 2: to throw in the middle of the field more, which 618 00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,400 Speaker 2: like Russ can't really do that right now. I think 619 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:48,760 Speaker 2: Wilson's washed and I don't think he's gonna work here. 620 00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,560 Speaker 2: By the way, the backfield's good with Harrison Warren, but 621 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,920 Speaker 2: warren hamstring injury this weekend red flag. Especially early in 622 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:59,160 Speaker 2: the season. Uh, Secondary is still a question for me. 623 00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:03,600 Speaker 2: Los twenty six hundred snaps from twenty twenty three. You 624 00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:08,360 Speaker 2: know you add Elliott Man, Dante Jackson I think is watched. 625 00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 2: He's right at that age where it looks like he 626 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:12,880 Speaker 2: will be Cam Sutton I'm not a fan of, and 627 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:19,520 Speaker 2: he's suspended. I like their Joey Porter Jr. Really strong 628 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,759 Speaker 2: second half the year. But who's Stevie two. I think 629 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,080 Speaker 2: Corey Trice might have the most potential. We'll see if 630 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:30,440 Speaker 2: he ever emerges. Beanie Bishop starting in the slot as 631 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:34,000 Speaker 2: a rookie. So secondary definitely has questions, and they're relying 632 00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,880 Speaker 2: a lot of aging stars like they're getting older. And 633 00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:40,239 Speaker 2: I'm not a huge queen guy either, so I don't 634 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:47,320 Speaker 2: think that's like some huge get. So yeah, I I 635 00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:50,480 Speaker 2: would lean under on the Steelers. I don't think Wilson's 636 00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:53,320 Speaker 2: the answer, and I still have questions about this offensive 637 00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,319 Speaker 2: line and the secondary. The schedule's really hard. Yeah, they 638 00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:57,680 Speaker 2: got the ten wins last year, Like I said, they 639 00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,399 Speaker 2: were played like an eight one team. Three their last 640 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,720 Speaker 2: four wins get the playoffs, Browning twice and huntly. 641 00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:03,640 Speaker 1: Yeah. 642 00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,880 Speaker 2: So yeah, I think I think if I had a 643 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,279 Speaker 2: bet on it, if I had to, I would bet 644 00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,640 Speaker 2: the under, and this streak ends, but I'm not sure 645 00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,400 Speaker 2: if I will just Tom and his Iowa he finds 646 00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:15,680 Speaker 2: a way. 647 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:19,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Steelers, I don't want to bet the under 648 00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,120 Speaker 1: on them just because of their track erer, but definitely 649 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 1: not betting over as I think Justin Fieldz is the 650 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:26,320 Speaker 1: best quarterback on that roster. So yeah, that's I like 651 00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 1: the Bengals in this division as well. All right, let's 652 00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,520 Speaker 1: jump to the AFC West and the Kansas City Chiefs, 653 00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,759 Speaker 1: of course, are the favorite there. Eleven and a half 654 00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:35,640 Speaker 1: is the win total. Minus went twenty to the over 655 00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,360 Speaker 1: at bet MVM minus two fifty to win the division. 656 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:42,040 Speaker 1: Of course, Andy Reid nine and two over his win 657 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,320 Speaker 1: total with the Kansas City Chiefs and his eleven seasons, however, 658 00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:50,840 Speaker 1: lost two of three over the last three seasons. This 659 00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:54,880 Speaker 1: team is trying to make history and do the get 660 00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:57,239 Speaker 1: a three peat. What do you see for Kansas City 661 00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:58,200 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four? 662 00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:00,640 Speaker 2: I mean I project right close to it, which I 663 00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:03,040 Speaker 2: was happy to see because who wants to bet Mahomes 664 00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:07,320 Speaker 2: and read under read it seventy five percent to the 665 00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:11,440 Speaker 2: over win totals this century. And yeah, you mentioned nine 666 00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,279 Speaker 2: and two. There are two times that they didn't go 667 00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,799 Speaker 2: over was by a half game. Death taxes in Kansas City. 668 00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,719 Speaker 2: The one thing that could derail it injuries. They've been 669 00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:22,239 Speaker 2: pretty healthy, so I mean, obviously if Mahomes gets hurt, 670 00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:25,480 Speaker 2: there's some questions on the roster for sure. I mean 671 00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 2: Snead is gone, which means you're gonna you're they're likely 672 00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:31,840 Speaker 2: to moveing McDuffie to the outside. And just Snead and 673 00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,840 Speaker 2: McDuffie that was they were just such a great tandem. 674 00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 2: You lose Willie Gay as well. The offensive line questions again, 675 00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:43,480 Speaker 2: but Mahomes, you could just say butt Mahomes to all 676 00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:48,120 Speaker 2: of this. But it looks like Kingsley Suma Tea. I 677 00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:51,520 Speaker 2: think I said his name wrong, but uh, Suma Taia 678 00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:58,880 Speaker 2: the rookie is gonna start at left tackle and Taylor 679 00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,120 Speaker 2: at right tackle in two is good, but the tackles 680 00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:04,319 Speaker 2: again are going to be an issue. Wide receiver room 681 00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,120 Speaker 2: still has questions. Can wear these body hold up? Obviously 682 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:11,000 Speaker 2: the speed is going to be dangerous as hell. With Mahomes, 683 00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 2: you bring in Hollywood Brown, can he hold up? And 684 00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:16,319 Speaker 2: then obviously you have rashe Rice. What's going to happen 685 00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:20,799 Speaker 2: with him in his suspension? And then you have Travis Kelce. 686 00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,960 Speaker 2: You definitely is not as lead as he once was. 687 00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:25,719 Speaker 2: We saw that all through the regular season. Yeah, but 688 00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:28,320 Speaker 2: he turned it on in the playoffs. But is he 689 00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 2: going to have these weeks where he doesn't look like 690 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:35,000 Speaker 2: the same player? So yeah, there's some questions in the secondary, 691 00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:37,719 Speaker 2: but you trust Bags to figure it out. There's some 692 00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,560 Speaker 2: questions on the offense, but you fit, you trust Mahomes 693 00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:42,879 Speaker 2: to figure it out. And I just mentioned the close 694 00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:47,360 Speaker 2: game record of the Steelers. Chiefs are number two, twenty 695 00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:50,400 Speaker 2: six and twelve since twenty twenty over sixty eight percent. 696 00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,120 Speaker 2: They're probably going to win more close games than not 697 00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,360 Speaker 2: this year again because you have the best quarterback in 698 00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,920 Speaker 2: the NFL, you have Red, and you have Bucker to 699 00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:02,640 Speaker 2: make clutch kicks. Saw that the last NFL game we 700 00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:06,239 Speaker 2: watched in the Super Bowl. So yeah, I project right on, 701 00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:10,279 Speaker 2: there'll be a player in the AFC obviously, and it 702 00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,160 Speaker 2: helps that win the Super Bowl. And I have their 703 00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:17,480 Speaker 2: schedules the twenty fourth because their division is not great, 704 00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:19,960 Speaker 2: especially compared to some of these other divisions in the AFC, 705 00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:24,800 Speaker 2: So I project right on nothing preseason, but definitely be 706 00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,800 Speaker 2: looking to fade them, especially when they're like a bigger 707 00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:30,719 Speaker 2: favorite as usual. But that's for a later date. 708 00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Kansas City at this point, you know, 709 00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,439 Speaker 1: every year that Mahomes has been the starter, they've gotten 710 00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,239 Speaker 1: to the AFC Championship game. So I think if you 711 00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:40,360 Speaker 1: want to bet Kansas City, you know, bet them to 712 00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:42,560 Speaker 1: win the AFC Championship, bet them to win the Super Bowl, 713 00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,920 Speaker 1: bet them to reach the AFC title game. That's I 714 00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,800 Speaker 1: think those are a lot better bets than just trying 715 00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:50,560 Speaker 1: to bet onto my newche of You know, whether they 716 00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,080 Speaker 1: win eleven games or twelve games, you know, the division 717 00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:56,640 Speaker 1: it's minus two fifty not really getting it's not worth 718 00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:58,520 Speaker 1: putting your money up for, you know, four or five 719 00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:01,719 Speaker 1: months for that or so That's how I kind of 720 00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,800 Speaker 1: look at Kansas City and the Chargers. Nine and a 721 00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:06,880 Speaker 1: half is the win total plus one forty five to 722 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,120 Speaker 1: the over, So the markets kind of come down on 723 00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,840 Speaker 1: them plus three fifty to win the division. This is 724 00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:13,800 Speaker 1: a team that I want a fan. I'm curious to 725 00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,000 Speaker 1: hear your opinions on this, but I just look at 726 00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:17,600 Speaker 1: the charge and I see a team not in position 727 00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,560 Speaker 1: necessarily to take advantage of its biggest strength, which is 728 00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,560 Speaker 1: justin Herbert throwing a football. Number One, you have Herbert 729 00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,839 Speaker 1: coming into the year with this Planter fascion injury, which 730 00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,000 Speaker 1: could winger. We saw how Burrow, you know, kind of 731 00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:31,439 Speaker 1: struggled with a leg injury when he entered the season hurt. 732 00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:34,000 Speaker 1: You lost what Keenan Allen, Mike Williams at wide out 733 00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,760 Speaker 1: and Austin Eckler, a running back that's over nine thousand 734 00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:39,960 Speaker 1: of Herbert's career passing yards, over half of both his 735 00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:42,680 Speaker 1: passing yards and his passing touchdowns for his career Between 736 00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,839 Speaker 1: those three guys, fifty eight scores they caught from him 737 00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,680 Speaker 1: and then you know, Roman's notoriously run heavy, so how 738 00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:50,240 Speaker 1: much were you really going to pass anyway? 739 00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:50,719 Speaker 2: You know? 740 00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:54,399 Speaker 1: Put your backfield is Edwards, who's twenty nine, and he's 741 00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,640 Speaker 1: been declining in terms of his yards per touch since 742 00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:02,040 Speaker 1: twenty twenty. JK. Dobbins has played just nine games. Yeah, 743 00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,400 Speaker 1: just nine games in twenty twenty. So they have some talent, 744 00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:07,320 Speaker 1: but you know, it's I think the depth is a 745 00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,960 Speaker 1: question mark, and then the defense. You know, twenty six 746 00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:13,640 Speaker 1: and Dvowa last year, macuts thirty three. Bos has missed 747 00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:15,840 Speaker 1: twenty games over the last two years. James was a 748 00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:18,080 Speaker 1: show of himself in coverage last year. You have a 749 00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,480 Speaker 1: first time defensive coordinator and Jesse Minter. So I'm fading 750 00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:24,279 Speaker 1: the Chargers. I don't think that this is in a 751 00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:28,560 Speaker 1: competitive AFC necessarily a team that's getting to the playoffs, 752 00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,040 Speaker 1: a team that's winning nine to ten games right off 753 00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:32,320 Speaker 1: the bat. Even though I have a lot of respect 754 00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:34,640 Speaker 1: for Harball, I just think there's a lot more issues 755 00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,880 Speaker 1: than probably meet the eye with this team, even in 756 00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:41,480 Speaker 1: you know, a somewhat weak division outside of Kansas City. 757 00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:45,239 Speaker 1: You know, So I don't like the Chargers, But what 758 00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:45,879 Speaker 1: are your thoughts? 759 00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:48,239 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, I'm hoping to get like a little 760 00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:53,120 Speaker 2: Juice nine play under there. But I do like the 761 00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:56,160 Speaker 2: under on the Chargers. I think, I love the I 762 00:40:56,200 --> 00:41:00,279 Speaker 2: think Harball will get it turned around, and I love 763 00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:04,680 Speaker 2: the Jesse Minor Higher talk about defensive coordinators later and 764 00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:09,400 Speaker 2: scheme at some point in one of these podcasts. But 765 00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:12,360 Speaker 2: I just don't think that they have number one on offense. 766 00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:14,120 Speaker 2: They just don't have the pieces yet. Like the offensive 767 00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:17,720 Speaker 2: line could be good, you know, especially if all hits 768 00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:20,960 Speaker 2: at right tackle the rookie you know, just looks the part. 769 00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:23,480 Speaker 2: Their offensive line could be pretty good, and they want 770 00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:25,040 Speaker 2: to run the ball, but the weapons just aren't there. 771 00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:28,560 Speaker 2: I mean, it's like Josh Palmer, McConkie and DJ Shark 772 00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:32,239 Speaker 2: and we saw the passing offense even with Herbert when 773 00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,880 Speaker 2: they didn't have Alan Andoor Williams just fell off a 774 00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:39,320 Speaker 2: cliff And the weapons just aren't there for this offense. 775 00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:41,920 Speaker 2: I don't think that our ball. It's gonna take up 776 00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,960 Speaker 2: time to build out the roster and Mintor to what 777 00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:46,440 Speaker 2: he wants to do with the defense. I don't think 778 00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:50,840 Speaker 2: as the pieces to run ideally what Minter wants to do. 779 00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:54,239 Speaker 2: We saw, you know, you look at what McDonald did 780 00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:56,160 Speaker 2: with the Ravens. They had a ton of talent on 781 00:41:56,280 --> 00:42:00,600 Speaker 2: that team, so you're able to be much more and 782 00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:04,560 Speaker 2: multiple and do many more things that I don't like. Yeah, 783 00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,920 Speaker 2: Derwin James could be an interesting chess piece that I'm 784 00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,560 Speaker 2: sure he's going to use, similar to what McDonald did 785 00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:15,560 Speaker 2: with Kyle Hamilton, but like Christian Fulton bringing him in 786 00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:18,719 Speaker 2: at corner to see your tailor, Nick like, it's just 787 00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:22,960 Speaker 2: not a very talented secondary. You need a Sante Samuel 788 00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,320 Speaker 2: to just bounce back and have a monster year. And 789 00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,359 Speaker 2: you mentioned it, Mac and Bosa aren't getting any younger 790 00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:31,319 Speaker 2: like Kenley and Perriman. As you're inside linebackers, it's not great. 791 00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:33,439 Speaker 2: The depth to just go down the depth, the depth 792 00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:35,160 Speaker 2: on the defense if anyone gets hurt, it's. 793 00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,200 Speaker 1: Really depth is The depth is poor. And I can 794 00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:39,719 Speaker 1: say that firsthand because I was at that Charger Ram 795 00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:42,400 Speaker 1: preseason game and you know, as the game progressed, I 796 00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:44,319 Speaker 1: actually took a bet on the Rams live. They were 797 00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,240 Speaker 1: down at think sixty three, and it was just because 798 00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:49,760 Speaker 1: watching the Chargers second and third teams and their depth, 799 00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:53,600 Speaker 1: it just wasn't there. I really almost no none of 800 00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:57,000 Speaker 1: the positions especially none of that matters, So yeah, I agree. 801 00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:59,920 Speaker 1: I think this Charger team, the depth is the coaches go. 802 00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:02,399 Speaker 1: The quarterback is good and that's always a great starting point, 803 00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:04,480 Speaker 1: but a lot of gaps to fill in. 804 00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:09,080 Speaker 2: Besides, and Herbert's lanner fast is gonna gonna linger. It's 805 00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:13,120 Speaker 2: gonna hurt exactly. The definition is mobile and he's probably 806 00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:15,080 Speaker 2: not gonna be able to push off, probably early on. 807 00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:16,360 Speaker 2: I know he just came out of the boot, but 808 00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:19,440 Speaker 2: that's something that's gonna linger. So yeah, I know the 809 00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:25,479 Speaker 2: Chargers on paper are a by team for regression. Last 810 00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:28,839 Speaker 2: year they were super unlucky pretty much across the board. 811 00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:30,520 Speaker 2: They went oh and seven in games decided by three 812 00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:33,440 Speaker 2: points or less, finished with five wins. Should have finished 813 00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:35,560 Speaker 2: with a few more. But and they do have a 814 00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:37,440 Speaker 2: much easier schedule on paper, top one of the top 815 00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:39,040 Speaker 2: three easiest schedules in the NFL. 816 00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:41,840 Speaker 1: I still have the dogs in eight of their first thirteen, 817 00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:43,759 Speaker 1: so I think it's easy at the end, but that's 818 00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,359 Speaker 1: you know, they'd be kind of playing ketchup a little, 819 00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:47,920 Speaker 1: but I still think it could. They could have a 820 00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:49,920 Speaker 1: rough start, you know, given there. 821 00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:51,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, easy at the end. It is easy on paper 822 00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:53,800 Speaker 2: at the beginning. But I'm like Vegas and Carolina to 823 00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:55,280 Speaker 2: start the first two at least. 824 00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:57,719 Speaker 1: Well yeah, those two. But then yeah, so middle of 825 00:43:57,719 --> 00:43:59,120 Speaker 1: the middle, I should say middle. 826 00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:00,719 Speaker 2: Of the g but they faste a ton of They 827 00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:03,000 Speaker 2: face more backup quarterbacks than eight seens league les years. 828 00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:05,920 Speaker 2: They were lucky there, like the totals eight eight and 829 00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:08,439 Speaker 2: a half. It's not like it's six and a half 830 00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:09,279 Speaker 2: where you're getting there. 831 00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:12,120 Speaker 1: So it's nine and half a better MVM. So yeah, 832 00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:15,040 Speaker 1: it's it's it's it's but yeah, nine and a half, yes, 833 00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:17,400 Speaker 1: it's uh yeah, but there's you know, there's big juice 834 00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:18,640 Speaker 1: on you know, there's big juice to the under on 835 00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:21,279 Speaker 1: the nine and a half and a much money to 836 00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:21,600 Speaker 1: the over. 837 00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is this is a fas. 838 00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:27,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is on this podcast. This is this is 839 00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:29,360 Speaker 1: the under that I'm taking. Football season is here and 840 00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:32,480 Speaker 1: if you've thought about becoming an Action Pro subscriber, now 841 00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:35,480 Speaker 1: is the best time to sign up. For less than 842 00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:37,640 Speaker 1: ten dollars a month, you can get a year of 843 00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:41,719 Speaker 1: Action Pro access across every sport, which includes player prop 844 00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:45,200 Speaker 1: fix and projection edges from Sean Kerner and his Action 845 00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:50,040 Speaker 1: analytics team. 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Let's close it up with Vegas and 853 00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,279 Speaker 1: Denver So Vegas six and a half is the win 854 00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:21,080 Speaker 1: total minus won forty five to the over nine to 855 00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,239 Speaker 1: one to win the West. I only have this team 856 00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:25,680 Speaker 1: favorite in a couple of games this year. Minshew's name 857 00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:28,120 Speaker 1: the starter, and you know he kind of carried the 858 00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:30,680 Speaker 1: Colts or because you know, it was decent with the 859 00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:33,080 Speaker 1: Coats to the point where they were in contention. But 860 00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:36,120 Speaker 1: I think this could be a disaster waiting for waiting 861 00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:40,040 Speaker 1: to happen. You know, I just don't know if the 862 00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:44,719 Speaker 1: Raiders have enough really anywhere to be to get even 863 00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,719 Speaker 1: to the seven win total. I think there's just a 864 00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:49,640 Speaker 1: lot of holes on this roster. I still have questions 865 00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,200 Speaker 1: about Pierce, even though he was a nice story last year. 866 00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:54,440 Speaker 1: I don't think you have much upside in the quarterback 867 00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,120 Speaker 1: room Davonte Adams. You know, are is he going to 868 00:45:57,160 --> 00:45:59,759 Speaker 1: get traded at some point if they start poorly? Just 869 00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:04,080 Speaker 1: the offensive line I think is average at best. Just 870 00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:07,080 Speaker 1: the defense should finally be, you know, better than you 871 00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:08,960 Speaker 1: know it's been in years past. I mean, Raiders almost 872 00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:12,200 Speaker 1: never have a great defense. But still don't think that, 873 00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:15,920 Speaker 1: you know, this defense is like a game changing defense 874 00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:18,040 Speaker 1: that's gonna, you know, make up for the fact that 875 00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:21,400 Speaker 1: you have Minshew and Aidan O'Connell at quarterback. But what 876 00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:22,360 Speaker 1: are you thinking with the Raiders? 877 00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:26,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, the the offensive line has potential. I mean, is 878 00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:28,400 Speaker 2: just like he's gonna be like an average quarterback. He 879 00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:29,360 Speaker 2: can win you some games. 880 00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:32,920 Speaker 1: He's not gonna think average. I think it's bow average. 881 00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:35,719 Speaker 1: I think I think the coaches top three offensive line 882 00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:36,200 Speaker 1: last year. 883 00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:38,440 Speaker 2: I mean year I have him like probably like twenty 884 00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:43,240 Speaker 2: second probably I think last year. But he's not a disaster. 885 00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,040 Speaker 2: He's serviceable. The good thing is that he. 886 00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:47,279 Speaker 1: Could be could be he could be like that that 887 00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:49,279 Speaker 1: I think that was the best minta you're getting. I 888 00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:51,560 Speaker 1: mean that's just I mean, we could disagree but they could. 889 00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:54,440 Speaker 2: Go O'Connell like and like O'Connell was fine for rookie 890 00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:56,960 Speaker 2: like their their quarterback position is not gonna win games, 891 00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:58,759 Speaker 2: but at least they have like two options. Like the 892 00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:01,919 Speaker 2: Chargers don't Minshew. I mean if you got Easton Stick 893 00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:02,960 Speaker 2: who looks awful. 894 00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:04,480 Speaker 1: And oh yeah I saw that firsthand. 895 00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:09,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, so like and the charters have nothing. If he 896 00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:12,040 Speaker 2: gets hurt, it's like minshe gets hurt as ineffectively, she 897 00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:14,600 Speaker 2: can go to O'Connell. The offensive line has potential if 898 00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:17,239 Speaker 2: powers Johnson, the rookie hits a guard and the left side, 899 00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:20,239 Speaker 2: like Miller, they're both out right now, they're both not 900 00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:22,319 Speaker 2: They're both hurt, so they got to get them back. 901 00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:26,600 Speaker 2: Question at running back, for sure, they do have weapons 902 00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:30,720 Speaker 2: on the outside. Offensive line has potential if Howards Johnson 903 00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:34,800 Speaker 2: hits Miller gets back healthy. The defense, it's one of 904 00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:38,040 Speaker 2: the most interesting defenses in the NFL. To me, they 905 00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:42,080 Speaker 2: are not talented. They still have major questions in the secondary, 906 00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:47,000 Speaker 2: but last year they were unbelievable on defense, especially the 907 00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:48,880 Speaker 2: second half of the year. Now, they did play a 908 00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:51,640 Speaker 2: bunch of backup quarterbacks, but many maybe just for that, 909 00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:53,920 Speaker 2: they were very good and this is a defense. The 910 00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:57,880 Speaker 2: team that spent the second fewest dollars on defense in 911 00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:01,359 Speaker 2: the whole league last year, and their second highest paid 912 00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:04,120 Speaker 2: player was Chandler Jones, who didn't play yep, and they 913 00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:07,799 Speaker 2: finished with a top ten schedule. Adjust the defense. Why 914 00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:14,080 Speaker 2: so I went into this for hours just watching Raiders games, 915 00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:16,560 Speaker 2: and I think a lot of it just has to 916 00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:20,880 Speaker 2: do with and we've kind of tooted his horn for 917 00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:25,520 Speaker 2: years in Patrick Graham. I think he's one of the 918 00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:30,560 Speaker 2: most underrated coordinators in the NFL. And if you look 919 00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:37,319 Speaker 2: at his background, started with Belichick charting plays, just incessantly 920 00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:41,640 Speaker 2: got the game planning aspect of defense. Worked under Spagnola, 921 00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:46,760 Speaker 2: learned about all the unbelievable exotic blitzes, worked under Flores, 922 00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:53,359 Speaker 2: Exotic fronts, went worked under Peton, learned quarters, then went 923 00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:56,560 Speaker 2: to the Giants DC peel back the blitzer started using 924 00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,800 Speaker 2: more sim pressures. Now he has like this hybrid and 925 00:48:59,840 --> 00:49:03,600 Speaker 2: this all like the defenses that now are forming the 926 00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:10,000 Speaker 2: more modern kind of next evolution of the Fangio defense, 927 00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:12,760 Speaker 2: which is kind of like the Ravens defense, the McDonald defense, 928 00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:17,480 Speaker 2: And it all starts, you know, they when he's focused 929 00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:22,359 Speaker 2: on stopping the run, takeaway, explosive plays, and it all 930 00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:25,680 Speaker 2: starts with like these unbelievable stunts and games. He plays 931 00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:28,040 Speaker 2: with the defensive line up front, and he's a defensive 932 00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:30,759 Speaker 2: line guy by nature, but he does such a good 933 00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:33,279 Speaker 2: job of confusing opposing offensive lines. They do such a 934 00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:35,960 Speaker 2: good job of freeing up Crosby. Think about it. Crosby's 935 00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:37,080 Speaker 2: like he was the only guy who had to worry 936 00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:39,239 Speaker 2: about and he's still had unbelievable years. Now you had 937 00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:44,040 Speaker 2: Christian Wilkins there, So yeah, I think so I like 938 00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:49,240 Speaker 2: the Raiders under, but the part of me is afraid 939 00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:52,880 Speaker 2: of that I'm under rating their defense because of Graham, 940 00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:55,560 Speaker 2: And I think he just might be a wizard that 941 00:49:57,080 --> 00:50:02,880 Speaker 2: from a game planning perspective and scheming that this defenses 942 00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:06,920 Speaker 2: could overperform again because I just love his background. Is 943 00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:09,560 Speaker 2: everything that you would want in a defensive coordinator and 944 00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:11,480 Speaker 2: it showed last year and we even liked him when 945 00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:13,560 Speaker 2: he was at New York. Would we would two to 946 00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:17,000 Speaker 2: horn So if I had a bet, I would go 947 00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:20,600 Speaker 2: under with the Raiders. But I just wanted to shout 948 00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:23,400 Speaker 2: out Patrick Graham is more of like this hybrid defensive 949 00:50:23,440 --> 00:50:26,200 Speaker 2: coordinator for people that don't know you have you know, 950 00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:28,040 Speaker 2: back in the early two thousands, we were covered two, 951 00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:30,560 Speaker 2: then we want to cover three. Cover one. Cover three 952 00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:34,880 Speaker 2: was the Pete Carroll. Then then we went to you know, 953 00:50:35,160 --> 00:50:40,840 Speaker 2: this Fangio defense, which was you know, your mixed coverages 954 00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:42,680 Speaker 2: in the back end, but it was a too high shell, 955 00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:44,840 Speaker 2: a lot of cover three in quarters. And now you 956 00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:48,279 Speaker 2: have the Ravens McDonald beve. It's a lot of similarities 957 00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:51,719 Speaker 2: to what Fangio runs, but just the next evolution of it. 958 00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:55,600 Speaker 2: And you're seeing that now. So like the Fangio Tree 959 00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:58,880 Speaker 2: is like Philly where he is, the Rams Arizona, Carolina, 960 00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:02,560 Speaker 2: Carolina is a ton of cover. The Ravens Streets now Baltimore, Tennessee, Seattle, 961 00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:06,520 Speaker 2: Chargers Miami to an extent, although they're coordinator who will 962 00:51:06,520 --> 00:51:09,359 Speaker 2: talk about Later's a lot of influences. Then you saw 963 00:51:09,440 --> 00:51:13,000 Speaker 2: the Carol Tree, Carol sant Frantree. You got about five 964 00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:15,839 Speaker 2: coordinators there, but they've all evolved except for your boy 965 00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:19,799 Speaker 2: Gus Bradley. You have like Morris who has evolved, Dan 966 00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:22,319 Speaker 2: Quinn who has evolved to like more cover one, San 967 00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:25,480 Speaker 2: fran the Jets Houston now more quarters. Then you have 968 00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:28,040 Speaker 2: like some of these hybrid guys. Some of your Cover 969 00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:31,960 Speaker 2: one guys, your lone wolves, Flores and Mayo or Belichick guys, 970 00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:36,160 Speaker 2: Fags McDermot, Jim Johnson guys. You have your cover two 971 00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:39,120 Speaker 2: ever fluce influence, zimmers more of a Cover two man. 972 00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:44,239 Speaker 2: But out of the hybrid guys who kind of take 973 00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:47,360 Speaker 2: a lot of these, you know, more modern influence and 974 00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:51,040 Speaker 2: kind of shape their own defense because all the offenses 975 00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:54,759 Speaker 2: modern offense. Mike McDaniel's doing in Miami, he has like 976 00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:57,960 Speaker 2: he's beating these fangio defenses. He has all the beaters 977 00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:00,360 Speaker 2: with his motion and confusing going in the middle of 978 00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:04,880 Speaker 2: the field. These coordinators who can really adapt, change their defenses, 979 00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,680 Speaker 2: change their schemes, adapt based on opponent. That's where you're 980 00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:12,840 Speaker 2: gonna have to live. And a guy like Graham, a 981 00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:16,440 Speaker 2: guy like Anna Roumo since he comes to mind, and 982 00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:18,880 Speaker 2: obviously McDonald and that Raven Tree, that's what they kind 983 00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:23,040 Speaker 2: of hang their hat on. So yeah, I have a 984 00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:26,560 Speaker 2: lot of respect for Bram, but I would go under 985 00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:27,120 Speaker 2: if I had to two. 986 00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:31,360 Speaker 1: There's just not enough for me at quarterback there. And 987 00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:34,680 Speaker 1: I still think, you know, the defense overperformed, it could underperform. 988 00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,799 Speaker 1: You mentioned Crosby. They still were very reliant on him, 989 00:52:38,560 --> 00:52:41,960 Speaker 1: you know, regardless of the situation. So I don't like. 990 00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:43,400 Speaker 1: I think the best thing you can say about them 991 00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:46,160 Speaker 1: is the schedule is not totally you know, too tough, 992 00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:48,320 Speaker 1: but I still make them like a short underdogs in 993 00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:51,840 Speaker 1: a lot of games. So yeah, I'm I'm still fading 994 00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:54,600 Speaker 1: the Raiders did the Broncos. Five and a half is 995 00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:56,439 Speaker 1: the win total minus one oh five to the over. 996 00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,840 Speaker 1: They're eighteen to one to win the division. This is 997 00:52:59,880 --> 00:53:03,040 Speaker 1: the interesting team because John Payton, you know, kind of 998 00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:05,640 Speaker 1: made something out of nothing with Wilson, kind of got 999 00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:08,719 Speaker 1: through the season after a really rough start. Defensively, with 1000 00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:11,600 Speaker 1: this team, defense should be better. The old line should 1001 00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:14,080 Speaker 1: be okay, you know, kind of middle of the pack. 1002 00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:17,120 Speaker 1: Maybe maybe some upside, but uh, you know, I guess 1003 00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:19,480 Speaker 1: it comes down to bow Nicks really because I think 1004 00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:21,160 Speaker 1: he's gonna end up getting the most starts on this 1005 00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:23,719 Speaker 1: on the squad. With that said, what do you think 1006 00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:25,879 Speaker 1: of what's your outlook for Denver here with this five 1007 00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:26,920 Speaker 1: and a half win total? 1008 00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:29,840 Speaker 2: H Yeah, this is a bad roster and yeah bo 1009 00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:31,560 Speaker 2: Nick stows him named the starter, but I assume he 1010 00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:35,960 Speaker 2: will be just not a very talented team and they 1011 00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:38,960 Speaker 2: didn't really do much because of that. Yeah, you know, 1012 00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:41,719 Speaker 2: look at in free agency they added because you're you're 1013 00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:44,840 Speaker 2: paying that Wilson money like bow Nicks, Stidham, Zach Wilson. 1014 00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:50,560 Speaker 2: I mean, I guess bo Nicks can efficiently do some 1015 00:53:50,719 --> 00:53:53,839 Speaker 2: things in the Peyton just like Peyton holding his hand, 1016 00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:59,279 Speaker 2: us his legs, short passes, but just not a very 1017 00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:05,239 Speaker 2: talented ross of the defense. Also just kind of void 1018 00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:08,839 Speaker 2: of talent. Is is the marw mathis gonna start by 1019 00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:09,160 Speaker 2: the way? 1020 00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:13,440 Speaker 1: I wouldn't think so. I think it's got to be 1021 00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:15,920 Speaker 1: like wow, if or you know, I. 1022 00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:18,319 Speaker 2: Mean, Mosley Moss gonna start. 1023 00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:20,640 Speaker 1: I mean it's not it can't be. It can't be 1024 00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:23,319 Speaker 1: by the way up and. 1025 00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:28,000 Speaker 2: Coming what's hot and not not as the Broncos quarterback situation, 1026 00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:32,960 Speaker 2: hot white corners. We haven't had a white corner start 1027 00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:37,280 Speaker 2: since two thousand and three in the NFL. Three chances 1028 00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:45,000 Speaker 2: this year, Riley Moss, Cooper, Dejean Philly and Honor is it. Yes, Yeah, 1029 00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:48,279 Speaker 2: there's a chance he might start. He's like rising up 1030 00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:51,720 Speaker 2: the depth chart and we'll get to the Dolphins next episode. 1031 00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:54,560 Speaker 2: But so I'll talk about that then. But three chances, 1032 00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:56,560 Speaker 2: so we'll see if we can get one this year. 1033 00:54:56,760 --> 00:54:59,040 Speaker 2: But yeah, I look, I went under last year under 1034 00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:00,520 Speaker 2: eight and a half. Now it's five and a half. 1035 00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:03,680 Speaker 2: I think it's priced properly. If I had a bet it, 1036 00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:05,839 Speaker 2: i'd probably go under. But there's some of these teams 1037 00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,399 Speaker 2: that the division they're going to beat each other. Yeah, 1038 00:55:08,920 --> 00:55:10,759 Speaker 2: you just play proaba and a half super low for 1039 00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:15,040 Speaker 2: showing Payton coach team with the home field advantage like Denver. 1040 00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:21,680 Speaker 2: Keep in mind that Peyton has average ten point six 1041 00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:25,120 Speaker 2: wins in sixteen seasons as a head coach, never fewer 1042 00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:28,680 Speaker 2: than seven. So no interest in going under five and 1043 00:55:28,719 --> 00:55:29,000 Speaker 2: a half. 1044 00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:31,440 Speaker 1: But yeah, I would lean by this team either. I 1045 00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:33,319 Speaker 1: would actually lean over on the five and a half. 1046 00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:35,359 Speaker 1: I think it's price pretty correctly, but I would lean 1047 00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:38,600 Speaker 1: over just because I think, you know, that's that's kind 1048 00:55:38,600 --> 00:55:41,520 Speaker 1: of a forgiving price where I do think the Raiders 1049 00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:44,680 Speaker 1: will struggle. I do think the Chargers will struggle, and 1050 00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:48,279 Speaker 1: you know, the Broncos at least they have like, you know, 1051 00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:51,840 Speaker 1: another quarterback in Stidham who is not you know, bottom 1052 00:55:51,880 --> 00:55:54,759 Speaker 1: of the barrel, terrible kind of like you feel like 1053 00:55:54,800 --> 00:55:56,680 Speaker 1: with the with O'Connell for the Raiders, So I think 1054 00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:58,839 Speaker 1: they could. They could. I think it's more likely they 1055 00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:01,640 Speaker 1: find themselves the six wins, then the Raiders and Chargers 1056 00:56:01,760 --> 00:56:04,479 Speaker 1: go go over there win total. But yeah, I agree, 1057 00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:06,040 Speaker 1: there's not They didn't. They couldn't. They were kind of 1058 00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:08,920 Speaker 1: hamstrung in free agency. In the draft, you know, they 1059 00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:10,600 Speaker 1: had to spend a pick on a quarterback. They ended 1060 00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:12,480 Speaker 1: up spending a pick on a running back. They couldn't 1061 00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:15,799 Speaker 1: do too much a free agency. So yeah, it's you're 1062 00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:17,640 Speaker 1: betting on Sean Payton, which is not a bad bet. 1063 00:56:18,160 --> 00:56:22,319 Speaker 1: But I do think the Broncos probably among the non 1064 00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:26,799 Speaker 1: Chiefs teams in this divisions, they're probably the most underrated 1065 00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:29,759 Speaker 1: just based on the market because I'm well on the 1066 00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:31,919 Speaker 1: Chargers and I'm not feeling great about the Raiders either. 1067 00:56:32,160 --> 00:56:34,640 Speaker 2: If you wanted to take a deep flyer in this division, 1068 00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:38,960 Speaker 2: the only thing, the only thing that I could recommend, 1069 00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:42,120 Speaker 2: and I'm not betting it myself, but the only thing 1070 00:56:42,160 --> 00:56:44,720 Speaker 2: that I could recommend, The Chiefs are minus two thirty 1071 00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:47,920 Speaker 2: Chargers plus three fifty Raiders plus nine hundred. The only 1072 00:56:47,960 --> 00:56:51,319 Speaker 2: thing I could recommend is Broncos twenty twenty five to one, 1073 00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:53,960 Speaker 2: and all your betting there is I think all the 1074 00:56:54,000 --> 00:56:56,440 Speaker 2: three other teams are flawed, and then you're just betting that, 1075 00:56:56,600 --> 00:57:00,279 Speaker 2: like if Mahomes gets hurt in like week two, I 1076 00:57:00,320 --> 00:57:01,800 Speaker 2: would just take a fly on the Broncos because I 1077 00:57:01,800 --> 00:57:03,799 Speaker 2: think all those teams are terrible and you're getting at 1078 00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:06,440 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five to one, where like if Momes is 1079 00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:10,280 Speaker 2: out week one for the year, eight wins, seven wins 1080 00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:11,960 Speaker 2: could win that division. 1081 00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:15,360 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, yeah, no, it's it's it's long shot playoff 1082 00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:18,160 Speaker 1: team maybe two, but that's yeah, it's this is this 1083 00:57:18,280 --> 00:57:19,640 Speaker 1: is not a team I want to be investing too 1084 00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:21,720 Speaker 1: much and then positively either. I'm just saying I just 1085 00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:24,680 Speaker 1: think of the three non Chiefs teams, they're the most underrated. 1086 00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:27,800 Speaker 1: But you know, let's let's wrap it up here to recap. 1087 00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:30,800 Speaker 1: Stuck and I both are are bullish on the Bengals. 1088 00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:32,280 Speaker 1: We like them to win the division. We like them 1089 00:57:32,840 --> 00:57:37,040 Speaker 1: over the win total. Both bearish on the Chargers. I 1090 00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:38,480 Speaker 1: like them to miss the playoffs. I like them to 1091 00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:41,120 Speaker 1: go under their win total. And Stuck your alto a 1092 00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:43,440 Speaker 1: little barish on on Ravens as well as am I. 1093 00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:48,000 Speaker 1: But but the market has kind of come down on them. 1094 00:57:48,120 --> 00:57:50,400 Speaker 1: You can find Stucky on X at Stucky Too. I'm 1095 00:57:50,440 --> 00:57:52,720 Speaker 1: at Chris Raybon. We're at those same handles on the 1096 00:57:52,720 --> 00:57:55,360 Speaker 1: three award winning Action Network app, where you can follow 1097 00:57:55,440 --> 00:57:58,640 Speaker 1: our bets and track your own all season until next time. 1098 00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:19,040 Speaker 1: Let's get this money. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 1099 00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:22,240 Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 1100 00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:25,200 Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 1101 00:58:25,280 --> 00:58:26,040 Speaker 2: hundred gambler