Speaker 1: Check it on Man down Man, Good Monday morning to do.
Speaker 1: It is a number of game right here at the
Speaker 1: four Spetting Network, serious XEP channel tool for Visa dot Com,
Speaker 1: the Visa f Boobo sling at Game Plus. It is
Speaker 1: Gil Alexander. Jason con is here as well. Good morning
Speaker 1: to you, Jason. How are you? How are you? By
Speaker 1: the way, good? Thanks, go happy Monday. I couldn't go, Howard,
Speaker 1: I couldn't decide between how are you and how you doing?
Speaker 1: And that's what came out of my It's good on
Speaker 1: all accounts. Uh. This is Guessing Lines week eleven in
Speaker 1: the NFL. That's what we're here for this morning. Of course,
Speaker 1: we'll briefly touch on Dustin Johnson's amazing coronation at the
Speaker 1: Masters today. Coronation the entire weekend was that for a
Speaker 1: Hall of fame golfer who got it done with the
Speaker 1: green jacket. This weekend we'll talk about that, uh when
Speaker 1: it comes up sort of organically. Congratulations to everybody who
Speaker 1: had DJ with their bets. A record twenty under par
Speaker 1: at Augusta, never been done before his second major of
Speaker 1: his career. Uh, and of course the NFL will if
Speaker 1: you're just landing on this show for the first time,
Speaker 1: we talk about the upcoming week lines. I've been in
Speaker 1: a cocoon. This is a tribute to the old start
Speaker 1: US radio show of the same name. I've been in
Speaker 1: a cocoon since last night. I don't know the lines.
Speaker 1: I guess them. Chrissie Andrews from the South Point Sports Book,
Speaker 1: the director of that sports book right here behind us,
Speaker 1: the tip of the strip. Uh, he tells us what
Speaker 1: he's going to post after the show. Right after the show,
Speaker 1: and within that exercise, we got ourselves some value. And uh.
Speaker 1: Last week, what was the line that I thought was
Speaker 1: the most ridiculous was Cleveland And yeah, that should have covered.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about that. We'll talk about that in the
Speaker 1: Arizona endings, because I think that is those are obviously
Speaker 1: the two headlines from a Benny standpoint. Let's bring him
Speaker 1: in my mish book of Chris Andrews. Good morning, Chris.
Speaker 1: What's going on? I I got questions for you. One.
Speaker 1: Let's just let's start it out. First of all, congratulations,
Speaker 1: you have you have four survivor pools that are still
Speaker 1: four survivor entries. You and your partners are still available.
Speaker 1: You and your partner partners plural. Oh, I got a
Speaker 1: bunch of partners. We put in a bunch of stuff
Speaker 1: all over the place. So it's like, I gotta win
Speaker 1: one of these to break even. So yeah, I've got
Speaker 1: a lot of money. But you are in the circle
Speaker 1: one right with four entries left. Yeah, yeah, that'll if
Speaker 1: we win that one, that'll pay a few bills. So
Speaker 1: you know, so we went from three ten to three
Speaker 1: oh one another. Yeah, the gaunten. The gauntlet begins now.
Speaker 1: But how did you play it this weekend? Did you
Speaker 1: have all four on one team? No, we had three gutten.
Speaker 1: We had three with Green Bay. It's made a sweat.
Speaker 1: Yeah and uh and then we had one with the Saints.
Speaker 1: Okay they both did they all got through? Um? Yeah.
Speaker 1: Now here's my question of a bookmaking standpoint that game
Speaker 1: last night is we're watching Baltimore, New England, and New
Speaker 1: England ends up winning it out right. I don't know how,
Speaker 1: you know, It's like, it's amazing how it always works
Speaker 1: out for books in the end, That's what it seems like.
Speaker 1: But a Sunday night game, you probably weren't having the
Speaker 1: best week, I would imagine, and then that happens. How
Speaker 1: big of a decision was that for you? Boy? It
Speaker 1: was big? Yeah, it was big winning that game we
Speaker 1: wound up not I mean we went to the day
Speaker 1: and not you know, not like a great number, but
Speaker 1: like an okay number. If we lost that game, it
Speaker 1: would have been really bad. So but we went into
Speaker 1: it and then we need a miracle here because I
Speaker 1: didn't know New England it beat him, you know, I
Speaker 1: really didn't. Um, But we got it, you know, and
Speaker 1: it was nice. It kind of salvage the salvage the
Speaker 1: weekend because Saturday was not very good at all. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and we weren't looking very good going into Sunday night.
Speaker 1: But that that was a big win for us. Great
Speaker 1: game plan by Belichick, weather helps um was. But you know,
Speaker 1: you could have said that if the Ravens were up,
Speaker 1: the weather would help them too, probably. So just a
Speaker 1: great game plan from start to finish for the Patriots.
Speaker 1: Patriots when at twenty three to seventeen as outright seven
Speaker 1: point dogs, they went it out right, that is uh
Speaker 1: and that's huge. Four books. Let's start with Thursday, because
Speaker 1: there's so much to get into from yesterday as we're
Speaker 1: doing this. By the way, for week eleven. For those
Speaker 1: who are just here for the first time, we of
Speaker 1: course go back through all the Shenanigans betting in Otherwise,
Speaker 1: in week ten, what is Thursday Night? Good game? Cardinals
Speaker 1: at the Seahawks. Oh, that is a good game. Cardinals
Speaker 1: six and three. Seahawks six and three. Rams are also
Speaker 1: six and three in the NFC West. Niners not so much.
Speaker 1: Not their fault. Huge Thursday game. Uh. Arizona wins yesterday
Speaker 1: on the Hail Mary. I guess people are calling it
Speaker 1: to Hail Murray, Hail Mary, Hail Mary from Kyler Murray
Speaker 1: to DeAndre Hopkins forty three yards with two seconds left
Speaker 1: on the clock, and that beats the Bills yesterday and
Speaker 1: dramatic fashion. After the Bills had scored with just over
Speaker 1: thirty seconds love, I believe, with thirty four seconds left,
Speaker 1: Stephen dig scored and Stefon Diggs was on the sideline
Speaker 1: doing a whole bunch of me me, look at me.
Speaker 1: Uh that's my translation of what I saw thirty two
Speaker 1: thirty though the Cardinals hook it up on the on
Speaker 1: the Murray to Hopkins play. By the way, Bill O'Brien
Speaker 1: had no need for DeAndre Hopkins, just want to point
Speaker 1: that out. So if you had the Bills plus two
Speaker 1: and a half, uh, you end up By the way,
Speaker 1: it's Gill Alexander and Chris Andrews right here in the
Speaker 1: numbers game at Visa the Sports Betting Network Serious Except
Speaker 1: Channel to A four, Visa dot Com, the Visa that
Speaker 1: Food bos link a game plus guessing lines for week eleven.
Speaker 1: Looking back at week ten, Uh, if you had the
Speaker 1: Bills plus two and a half, you end up winning.
Speaker 1: If you have the Cardinals minus two and a half,
Speaker 1: you end up losing. The two is a push and
Speaker 1: the reason for the push here is that when the
Speaker 1: touchdown was scored with just two ticks of the clock
Speaker 1: left and the Cardinals go up thirty two to thirty,
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury and staff decided, Uh, we're not going to
Speaker 1: kick an extra point. We are going to line up
Speaker 1: in a two point conversion formation and we're just gonna
Speaker 1: take a knee. And that is a genius move. I
Speaker 1: know that it hurts some gamblers and it and it
Speaker 1: harm and it and it helped others. But the only
Speaker 1: way with two seconds left on the clock that you
Speaker 1: can get beat in that situation, or you can get
Speaker 1: and you can get beat is if they block the kick,
Speaker 1: return it for two points and then beat you in overtime.
Speaker 1: So just take the knee. I totally get that move. Now.
Speaker 1: There wasn't notion in my head that Kingsbury just looked
Speaker 1: into and I was like, does he think this is
Speaker 1: a time down? Like there's a little of that in
Speaker 1: my head. But I'm gonna give him a benefit of
Speaker 1: the doubt. I think he knew what he was doing,
Speaker 1: So that one I endorse. We'll get to the Cleveland
Speaker 1: Brown ones later because I have Cleveland Brown's one later
Speaker 1: because I have a different opinion on that. But Kyler
Speaker 1: Murray twenty two of thirty two for two forty five,
Speaker 1: one touchdown, one pick, sack three times, eleven carries for
Speaker 1: sixty one yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Uh,
Speaker 1: he's in the m v P conversation everybody. He's gotta
Speaker 1: be first quarterback with a touchdown in five straight games
Speaker 1: since nineteen fifty six. Hopkins ends up seven for a touchdown,
Speaker 1: rake four hundred fifty three total yards for the Cardinals
Speaker 1: and victory. And then there's Seattle, And I don't think
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson is really in the m v p conversation anymore. Uh,
Speaker 1: the The Seahawks have lost three of four s and
Speaker 1: starting five and oh Wilson was twenty three thirty eight
Speaker 1: for two forty nine but no touchdowns, two picks. He
Speaker 1: was sacked six times. He was eight for sixty on
Speaker 1: the ground. The Seahawks have ten turnovers in their last
Speaker 1: four games, including three yesterday. The third was a fumble
Speaker 1: lost by Wilson. They were minus two in turnovers in
Speaker 1: their loss yesterday to the Rams to sixteen. It was
Speaker 1: a bad spot for the Seahawks, though the Rams had
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks. If Sean McVeigh couldn't have schemed
Speaker 1: two weeks to beat that defense, I'm not sure if
Speaker 1: we could call him a genius anymore. That was my
Speaker 1: buddy Matt Brown's comment. I agree with that, but in
Speaker 1: the end, for me, Russell Wilson another really bad pick yesterday,
Speaker 1: that one at the end of the second quarter when
Speaker 1: they were down seven and he could have run for
Speaker 1: the first down, he threw it in the end zone.
Speaker 1: It was picked just really uncharacteristic plays. But it's Arizona
Speaker 1: at Seattle on a short weekend. So getting finally to
Speaker 1: the guests, I think it's Seattle not quite a field goal.
Speaker 1: I'd say Seattle minus two and a half. Gilly, what's
Speaker 1: our t shirts gonna come out? Your number better? Uh?
Speaker 1: It's it's three with juice on the favorite. And I
Speaker 1: even see one three and ALP with juice on the dog.
Speaker 1: My numbers come to pick them. However, and this is
Speaker 1: purely anecdote. I wish I shouldn't been keeping track of
Speaker 1: this for years. In a shortened weekend like this, I do.
Speaker 1: I prefer a veteran team. I think home field might
Speaker 1: mean a little something. And I'm gonna give you to
Speaker 1: that in a second. Uh, you know, I like a
Speaker 1: veteran team, a veteran quarterback, you know. And I was
Speaker 1: I'm going to be the first to admit I was
Speaker 1: very late to the Murray party. He's really good and
Speaker 1: I had my serious doubts about him, but this kid's good.
Speaker 1: I however, like I said, he's still you know, young quarterback.
Speaker 1: I still don't like their coach. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you looked into that, uh non extra point or not,
Speaker 1: but that that was another thing that really helped the books.
Speaker 1: By the way, but you know, Russell Wilson not playing
Speaker 1: very good ball. So I have these two teams equal,
Speaker 1: I would not go to three, which is really what
Speaker 1: it is, is three and juice. I'm gonna open three
Speaker 1: flat and they're gonna probably bet me. See I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm sure they'll bet me settle, uh, which I'm certainly
Speaker 1: okay with. But like I said, even though I made
Speaker 1: power rating wise make the game pick on, I give
Speaker 1: Seattle a little bit of a nod because of you know,
Speaker 1: the coach and the quarterback. And when it comes to
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, Uh, they're really asking a lot of him.
Speaker 1: And yesterday what was that Jalen Ramsey was a cornerback
Speaker 1: really shut down DK met gap and I think when
Speaker 1: you get in that situation now, not too many guys
Speaker 1: are gonna be able to do that, by the way,
Speaker 1: but they're really asking Wilson to do an awful lot.
Speaker 1: And uh, it came back to haunt him yesterday, and
Speaker 1: it's maybe come back to haunt him a couple of
Speaker 1: times in the last couple of weeks because Wilson has
Speaker 1: not looked at good. You know, for years, I've been
Speaker 1: saying I hate rooting against this guy, but yesterday, you know,
Speaker 1: we kind of needed to beat him and we did. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, but he's not playing real well right now.
Speaker 1: I got his qbready from yesterday thirty one point one.
Speaker 1: That's one of the lowest I remember how to him
Speaker 1: because you know, I love the guy. I talked about
Speaker 1: him altiple time. He's terrific. But uh, you know, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna open three. I think they'll lay it to me.
Speaker 1: Like I said, I'm fine with that, but I do
Speaker 1: kind of like your number better. To be honest with you,
Speaker 1: but you got helped by that nal down and I'm
Speaker 1: sure you got healthy by the other one that's coming
Speaker 1: up in in the Cleveland game? What is it? What
Speaker 1: is next Sunday? Speaking of Cleveland, Billy yeat Cleveland. By
Speaker 1: the way, how great was the five early game six
Speaker 1: late games thing yesterday? Great? H so good? What is
Speaker 1: it this coming week? Are we reverting back to the normal? Yeah? Seven,
Speaker 1: seven and four. We're getting there. We're getting there. That
Speaker 1: was a great, a great weekend where college football cooperated
Speaker 1: in terms of not being a really sexy schedule, having
Speaker 1: fifteen postponements or cancelation, and then Dustin Johnson having the
Speaker 1: decency to run away with the masters. So there wasn't
Speaker 1: much to watch. They either in the NFL accommodating it
Speaker 1: with five early games and five that weren't of the
Speaker 1: sexiest matchups. Right, all the all the good ones were
Speaker 1: in the afternoon. Just from a fan standpoint, what was
Speaker 1: the game with Cleveland again? Who was it? Cleveland? Oh? Boy? Philly?
Speaker 1: The NFC East leading Philadelphia Eagles now at three five
Speaker 1: and one, they lose to the Giants. A lot of
Speaker 1: money came in on the Eagles. Eagles ended up as
Speaker 1: a four and a half point closing favorite. They lose
Speaker 1: twenty seven to seventeen, broken eight game winning streak against
Speaker 1: the Giants. They Giants hadn't beaten them to twenty six.
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz thirty seven, two oh eight, no touchdowns, no picks,
Speaker 1: and there's the sacks, three sacks man as he gets
Speaker 1: sacked all out this year oh for nine on third down?
Speaker 1: The Eagles were oh for nine on third down at
Speaker 1: zero for nine, one for three on four. First game
Speaker 1: for the Eagles franchise since two thousand four without a
Speaker 1: third down conversion. Think about that, sixteen years they've gone
Speaker 1: without getting a third down conversion. They had eleven penalties
Speaker 1: for seventy four yards and then in one of these
Speaker 1: I mean, this is really the theme of yesterday Analytics
Speaker 1: gone bad. Whence and the Eagles go for two down
Speaker 1: twenty one to seventeen in the third quarter. But could
Speaker 1: we please can we please stop with this someone? I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's so funny how we can anything
Speaker 1: can be justified. But in that moment, you know, because
Speaker 1: you can, you can take it to you know, chess
Speaker 1: place plays forward and be like, well yeah, but if
Speaker 1: then if they end up with the field goal and
Speaker 1: blah blah blah, you'll still be you know, no, no, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: just cut it to three. What are we doing here?
Speaker 1: It's a third quarter, for God's sakes. So they don't
Speaker 1: get it, by the way, not that it would have
Speaker 1: mattered perhaps in the end, but it's just you know,
Speaker 1: they went for two earlier. Okay, that cut it to uh,
Speaker 1: you know, to a three point game, but then on
Speaker 1: this one, you're not gonna go for a one to
Speaker 1: cut it to a three point game. I I don't
Speaker 1: understand anymore. Um So Philly loses, but they still lead
Speaker 1: the NFC East at three five and one, again a
Speaker 1: division that I say to folks, why would you want
Speaker 1: to win this and have a draft pick at least
Speaker 1: nine or ten picks worse than you would if you don't. UM.
Speaker 1: Then there's the Browns. The Browns beat the Texans. Uh
Speaker 1: and they and they beat them by the final score
Speaker 1: of ten to seven. And uh Baker Mayfield was twelve
Speaker 1: twenty one thirty two, no touchdowns, no picks, sacked on
Speaker 1: two yards passing. They got it done on the ground,
Speaker 1: as they should have in that weather. Uh. Nick Chubb
Speaker 1: nineteen for one and a touchdown Kareem Hunt nineteen for
Speaker 1: one oh four. But obviously the headline of this game
Speaker 1: is it's ten to seven and Chub on a scamper
Speaker 1: from the brown zoned forty hard line full sprint. Instead
Speaker 1: of going the full sixty, he goes fifty nine and
Speaker 1: makes a hard left out of bounds at the one
Speaker 1: in the clear with under a minute left. So Cleveland
Speaker 1: minus three ends up pushing Cleveland minus three and a
Speaker 1: half is a loss. Houston plus three and a half
Speaker 1: is a win. They kneeled twice after that to preserve
Speaker 1: the ten to seven win. Now, unlike the Kingsbury play,
Speaker 1: let me just say this, this is like the Todd
Speaker 1: Gurley thing against the Packers a few years back or
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago, I don't even remember now,
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago, where in the case of
Speaker 1: Girley with the Packers, if Gurley goes into the end
Speaker 1: zone and they kick the extra point, it's still a
Speaker 1: nine point lead. I think with less than two minutes
Speaker 1: or less than it was. It was definitely less than
Speaker 1: two minutes against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Okay, it's
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. There might be a little time on the
Speaker 1: clock where he could do something. Maybe you could make
Speaker 1: the case or that. Even though it's two scores, I
Speaker 1: still have my doubts this one yesterday. You are essentially
Speaker 1: turning a nine nine point nine percent win probability into
Speaker 1: a hundred percent. I get it, it's a percent. Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go nuts, But what are we doing? Really?
Speaker 1: What are these games? Are tough enough to beat betting normally,
Speaker 1: and he goes out of bounds like that, and you're
Speaker 1: just like, okay, wow, So this makes NFL. This makes
Speaker 1: betting on the NFL even harder now that guys have
Speaker 1: these ideas in their head, Like, Okay, everybody's telling me
Speaker 1: I should go out of hounds. By the way, that's
Speaker 1: what Chuck claimed. Here's here's Dave Purdham in at ESPN
Speaker 1: dot com. He said that at William Hill of the
Speaker 1: money bet on the point spread was on Cleveland, accorded
Speaker 1: data reported by the bookmaker an hour before kickoff. Jeff
Speaker 1: Stone back over at bet MGM and Nevada Texans covering
Speaker 1: the spread produced amid six figure swing in favor of
Speaker 1: the House and a collective moan from the crowded betters
Speaker 1: at the Mirage uh Draft Kings reported taking significantly more
Speaker 1: money on the Browns and the Texans. Action on Cleveland
Speaker 1: resulted in what Draft King sports book director Johnny Vello
Speaker 1: characterized as quote a pretty sizeable swing unquote Johnny's never
Speaker 1: committed all that stuff. ESPNS win probability metric showed Cleveland
Speaker 1: had a greater than ninety nine percent chance of winning
Speaker 1: whether Chubb scored or not at that point, and Cleveland
Speaker 1: coach Kevin Stefanski said he wouldn't have gotten mad at
Speaker 1: Chub had he scored, but that he had gave Chubb
Speaker 1: the team's code phrase no Moss, instructing him to go
Speaker 1: down after a first doubt and not score by the way.
Speaker 1: No moss, of course, made famous by Roberto Duran Heads
Speaker 1: Hands of Stone Manostpira in his UH rematch with Ray
Speaker 1: Leonard when Ray Leonard mugged him, Bolo punched him eighth
Speaker 1: round t k O in their rematch. Sorry, m Ray
Speaker 1: Leonard fan, I was getting excited. Yes, that's I got
Speaker 1: carried away. Sorry, I'm sorry, pardon me. So so what
Speaker 1: was the game anyway? So let's get back Philadelphia Cleveland.
Speaker 1: Let's say super It gets worth noting that that game
Speaker 1: went down, was was bent down from fifty four to
Speaker 1: forty five point five and still went way under, still
Speaker 1: went away on to Cleveland windy games just two weeks
Speaker 1: in a row and didn't and didn't compare at all
Speaker 1: to the weather the in the in New England last night,
Speaker 1: which was a monsoon. I'll say Cleveland minus three. But Man,
Speaker 1: these decisions that that some teams are making at the
Speaker 1: ends of games, chrissie, they seem, how can I put this,
Speaker 1: almost like they're trying to they're trying to be smarter,
Speaker 1: that they're trying to do what they think is smart,
Speaker 1: not actually knowing what they're doing. Uh, you know, I'm
Speaker 1: like you're reading too many books. You know, I'm a
Speaker 1: big reader. But you know, let's draw the line at
Speaker 1: some point. You know, not everything of the conspiracy on
Speaker 1: everything you do is analytically correct. And I would say
Speaker 1: that about silly. Uh. Once again, Gilly, here we go
Speaker 1: with the same same. I like your number better. Um
Speaker 1: My power rings come to two. I'm really I'm not
Speaker 1: enamored with Cleveland, and a lot of it is Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 1: I hate to say, uh, but I see three and
Speaker 1: a half juice on the dog, three juice on the favorite.
Speaker 1: You know, either way you go here, that's the way
Speaker 1: they're gonna bet you. I'm gonna open three and definitely
Speaker 1: take a bet. Um. You know not that I really
Speaker 1: like Philly perfect. I have a number here that I
Speaker 1: want to quote from Paul heimbi Kinti's and he goes
Speaker 1: on Twitter, Paul Hembo h g m bo. Paul Hembo
Speaker 1: on Twitter. He's a producer at ESPN, and he and
Speaker 1: I have exchanged a couple of direct messages on Twitter. Anyway,
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz has six games with a q b R
Speaker 1: under fifty, leads the NFL. I mean, we've got to
Speaker 1: stop making excuses for this guy. And I know we're
Speaker 1: talking about injuries and all that other stuff. Baker Mayfield
Speaker 1: has four, you know, so you know, but Wentz is
Speaker 1: clearly the favorite. There's Cup one of the guys. We
Speaker 1: might get to a couple of them later on. I
Speaker 1: want to go to go hold this right now, but
Speaker 1: go to go to excuse me. Paul him Bi Keatons
Speaker 1: Paul Himbow on Twitter. It's a great fall, a lot
Speaker 1: of a lot of great little staffs. A little tidbit
Speaker 1: so you might not stick up one. But like I said,
Speaker 1: I'm not crazy but stilly either. My numbers come to two,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open three and I'll probably lay it to me.
Speaker 1: But it's one of those. If I open three and
Speaker 1: a half, they take it. If I open three, they're
Speaker 1: gonna lay it. I'm gonna open three, definitely take the
Speaker 1: bed because they just think it's gonna be a tight game.
Speaker 1: I'm not crazy about the way Cleveland's playing either myself.
Speaker 1: So yeah, for sure. And by the way, Eagles one
Speaker 1: and a half game lead still in the NFC ET
Speaker 1: so they can still absorb, you know, some of this,
Speaker 1: And and there was that prop over there at was
Speaker 1: it was the DraftKings that that they had the NFC
Speaker 1: East winner. They had this up early in the season.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if it's still it. There seven and
Speaker 1: a half wins for the NFC East winner and the
Speaker 1: under was was plus money, and the plus money came down.
Speaker 1: But man, right now, to think team could get to
Speaker 1: eight wins like Philly would have to go five and
Speaker 1: to the rest of the way, that ain't happening. There's
Speaker 1: no way the Giants have to go Giants have to
Speaker 1: go six and one? Is that right now? They're playing
Speaker 1: some good football. They ain't going six and one. I
Speaker 1: got news for you. No, Yeah, Giants would have to
Speaker 1: go six and one. Yeah, they'd have to go to
Speaker 1: go eight and eight. They'd have to go six and one. Um,
Speaker 1: and then uh, and then you take a team like
Speaker 1: what is it, so they're the Giants are three and seven? No,
Speaker 1: pardon me, they'd have to go five and one. Pardon me.
Speaker 1: Giants would have to go five and one. Giants have
Speaker 1: a bye this week. Yeah, and they're there's seven and
Speaker 1: three against the spread, they're surprisingly good against. Yeah, they
Speaker 1: ain't going five one. Yeah. And then Dallas and Washington
Speaker 1: would both have to go six and one. Good luck
Speaker 1: to you. Yeah, not good? All right, we'll come back
Speaker 1: more guessing lines is all broad skill, Alexander. It's Chris Andrews,
Speaker 1: the sports book director here at the South Point Hotel Casino. Chrissie,
Speaker 1: what's next on Sunday morning? Another pretty good one, Atlanta
Speaker 1: at New Orleans. But we have some question marks for
Speaker 1: New Orleans of course. Yeah, so this will have to
Speaker 1: be if Drew Brees plays line or if he doesn't
Speaker 1: line breeze yesterday and I go ahead, I'm sorry. I
Speaker 1: was just gonna interrupted and say I see no lines
Speaker 1: on this game or the next one either. Save a
Speaker 1: little time with some of these. Alright, Well, Atlanta's off
Speaker 1: of Bie, so we don't have anything to say about
Speaker 1: the three and six Falcons. H New Orleans does beat
Speaker 1: the Niners yesterday. They do cover. Uh they cover to
Speaker 1: thirteen was the final score was a ten or nine
Speaker 1: and a half point closing number. They covered largely because
Speaker 1: they got two muffed punts from the Niners. So good yeah. Um,
Speaker 1: but they do get the cover, but largely because of
Speaker 1: those breezes. By the way, before he went out, actually
Speaker 1: after he went out, He's here's the thing. He got
Speaker 1: hurt and stayed in the game for the rest of
Speaker 1: the first half, so I can't really say before he
Speaker 1: got hurt. Breeze was eight of thirteen in the end
Speaker 1: for seventy six yards, one touchdown, note picks. He was
Speaker 1: not sacked, but the play on which he was heard uh,
Speaker 1: he absorbed a big hit that led to a personal
Speaker 1: foul penalty on Contavias Street with eight minutes twenty seconds
Speaker 1: remaining in the second quarter. Breeze has missed only six
Speaker 1: games because of injury in his twenty year NFL career,
Speaker 1: five of them in twenty nineteen because of a torn
Speaker 1: thumb ligament. People will remember, I didn't even think that
Speaker 1: was a personal foul. I thought that was an off
Speaker 1: terrible call, But apparently I did everything he could to
Speaker 1: not h rough the passer and got called for a
Speaker 1: horrible call. He got flagged for planned football. Chris flagged
Speaker 1: for planned football. Jamis came in. He was six of
Speaker 1: ten for sixty three, no touchdowns, no picks. He was
Speaker 1: sacked twice. It was all Alvin Camaro on offense. Eight
Speaker 1: of fifteen on the ground for two touchdowns, seven of
Speaker 1: eighty three through the air, receiving that is for a
Speaker 1: touchdown as well three touchdowns for Camara. But the Saints
Speaker 1: were one of ten on third down, they were one
Speaker 1: of one on four. They only had two hundred thirty
Speaker 1: seven total yards, but plus two in turnovers, and and
Speaker 1: that's the ball game right there. The turnovers held the
Speaker 1: Niners to forty nine yards rushing. Uh So, if it's breeze,
Speaker 1: I would say it's close to a touchdown. I would
Speaker 1: say minus six. If it's not breeze, it'll be significantly
Speaker 1: lower than that, probably a field goal. But you said
Speaker 1: there's no line, so I don't know. Well, I saw
Speaker 1: some look aheadlines were looking like about six and a
Speaker 1: half seven, you know, with breeze healthy, I personally like
Speaker 1: a lower. I'm thinking like a five myself. I think
Speaker 1: Atlanta is really playing well. Raheem Morris. You know, I
Speaker 1: don't think he was very good at a Tampa coach.
Speaker 1: He had his moments where he was, but you know,
Speaker 1: maybe he learned some things and you know the years
Speaker 1: in between, because he's got this team playing really well.
Speaker 1: And Atlanta was one of those teams out you know,
Speaker 1: they have talent and they there was just something missing.
Speaker 1: And maybe Morris is hitting the right buttons, but they're
Speaker 1: playing well. So I mean to me, like I said,
Speaker 1: I have a number of five. And while we're on
Speaker 1: the subject, because I think people are putting home field advantage,
Speaker 1: I got a few quotes in here that I want
Speaker 1: to make and I want to credit them properly. Uh.
Speaker 1: Andrew Siciliano, the NFL Network said, straight up, going into
Speaker 1: this weekend, home teams were six sixty seven and one.
Speaker 1: Straight up. Now they did have they were seven four
Speaker 1: and two, or that they were eleven and two yesterday,
Speaker 1: but they were favored in nine games, so that's gonna
Speaker 1: skew things a little bit. But even including yesterday's play,
Speaker 1: see this straight up winners, reported Dave Tooley, You know
Speaker 1: from vs In going into this weekend, home teams were
Speaker 1: seventy and two against the spread and including yesterday, seventy
Speaker 1: four and four. So I think people that are adding
Speaker 1: home field advantage. It's a mistake that one war from
Speaker 1: a visa and guy. Yeah, yeah, it's just from Jeff Vogel. Uh.
Speaker 1: And he posted this, I believe on Friday, Jeff Vogel
Speaker 1: vsaan guy great follow on Twitter. This is quoting Jeff
Speaker 1: in these win at Tennessee last night pushed the full
Speaker 1: season scoreboard differential to plus nineteen for visitors through a
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty four games. Accounting OT games is zero
Speaker 1: to keep everything at sixty minutes. Bloomfield advantage, it puts
Speaker 1: that quotes right now is minus zero point one four
Speaker 1: points per game. Media result is still a zero, and
Speaker 1: that's which would be an OT game. That was so
Speaker 1: that's quoting Jeff, Sorry, go ahead. That was probably predictable.
Speaker 1: We've seen home field, um, you know, without the fans
Speaker 1: and other sports act the same way. Well, it was.
Speaker 1: It was predictable in the sense when when whatever outfit
Speaker 1: put out the whole grid of games to all two
Speaker 1: hundred and two fifty six is at NFL games in
Speaker 1: the lines way back when in the middle of the spring,
Speaker 1: when you did the crunching of the numbers, it was
Speaker 1: only one and a half even then, and that was
Speaker 1: already sort of allowing for the fact that it might
Speaker 1: be nothing. Now, what Chrissy saying is it's nothing at all.
Speaker 1: Come back, Chris, because I don't know if you finish
Speaker 1: your thought. Well, we'll finish the thought on that coming
Speaker 1: back guessing lines right here Week eleven on a numbers
Speaker 1: game at Visa the sports betting Networks. Tonight's game is
Speaker 1: between the Bears and the Vikings Bears three point home dogs. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I will too. Yeah, it feels bears ish to me. Certainly.
Speaker 1: The Bears feel like a good teaser leg as well.
Speaker 1: You can stop Dalvin Cook, which the Bears appeared to
Speaker 1: be built to do, beat us kirk Cousins in prime time. Yeah,
Speaker 1: a lot of people thrown around the Kirk Cousins prime
Speaker 1: time stat or Monday night football stad where's overdone? Um? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think it sets up nicely for the Bears. Let's
Speaker 1: take a let the little tweets here. We get tweets
Speaker 1: at beating the book real quick, Fodi Bhura. No better
Speaker 1: way to start work Monday morning. Thank you Gilling, Chris,
Speaker 1: thank you for listening. Great Monday morning tradition. Tim Johnson,
Speaker 1: I think the players were just ready to get the
Speaker 1: game came over with in Cleveland yesterday, especially after the
Speaker 1: weather they had to deal with Chubb scores, that game
Speaker 1: probably takes another five to ten minutes. You know what, Tim,
Speaker 1: You might be right even though they're saying that was
Speaker 1: their plan, maybe that was behind their plan too. A
Speaker 1: little bit of that. Let's get out of here. Um
Speaker 1: nemesis enforcer. Maybe it's a Georgia thing, Chubb and Gurley
Speaker 1: not scoring at the wrong moment with players in analytics glide.
Speaker 1: You're telling me, all right, Chrissy, did you did you
Speaker 1: finish the home field advantage thought? Because I think it's
Speaker 1: a great one. I just want to throw in one
Speaker 1: more thing. Ed Fang, who really smart guy. I think
Speaker 1: it's been on DESA a couple of times. I've done
Speaker 1: his podcast. Yeah, real smart, smart guy coming into this year.
Speaker 1: And I don't know how long it was. It was
Speaker 1: just last year, you know, it was a couple of
Speaker 1: years involved. He said. Home field advantage wors worth one
Speaker 1: point seven points. So this standard three that we're giving
Speaker 1: is just too much. And like I said, this year,
Speaker 1: I'm making my numbers with no home field advantage. Certain
Speaker 1: cases you give it to. You said, I like the
Speaker 1: Seahawks with a little home field advantage this week on
Speaker 1: a short week, and I think that means a little something,
Speaker 1: But ordinarily I think home field essentially needs not All right,
Speaker 1: let's move on Sunday morning. Okay, this one, there's no
Speaker 1: numbers whatsoever. Detroit and Carolina. We've got question marks with
Speaker 1: both quarterbacks, both starting quarterbacks, although from what I hear
Speaker 1: both are pretty likely to play. But no numbers whatsoever
Speaker 1: that I see. Yeah, I have in my notes. I
Speaker 1: have Bridgewater hurt question mark. That wasn't even sure myself
Speaker 1: at the end of that game. Uh, Carolina, it's Detroit
Speaker 1: at Carolina. Let's start with the visiting Detroit Lions. Detroit
Speaker 1: gives up a twenty one lead to Washington only to
Speaker 1: win it on a fifty nine yard or with no
Speaker 1: time left, thanks in part and in big part to
Speaker 1: a Chase Young horrific roughing the passer on Stafford well
Speaker 1: after the whistle, just brutal, and Prater sinks the fifty
Speaker 1: nine yard or to beat the Washington football team. Stafford
Speaker 1: thirty three for two seventy six, three touchdowns note picks
Speaker 1: he sacked once DeAndre Swift the coming out party of
Speaker 1: DeAndre Swift. Uh, seemingly more and more every week. Sixteen
Speaker 1: carries for eighty one yards, five catches for sixty eight
Speaker 1: to touchdown Marvin Jones eight for ninety six in a touchdown,
Speaker 1: and Carolina, Uh, they lose to Tampa Bay played with
Speaker 1: the Bucks for for a half of this game, and
Speaker 1: then the Bucks just ran away with it. And I
Speaker 1: do mean run Ronald Jones the second with a ninety
Speaker 1: eight yard or to the house the big play Bridge
Speaker 1: Bridgewater yesterday, eighteen of twenty four for one thirty six.
Speaker 1: I think about that, eighteen for one thirty six. Uh
Speaker 1: two touchdowns where to pick He was sacked once DJ
Speaker 1: Moore four for ninety six in a touchdown, but they
Speaker 1: were one of nine on third down. They only had
Speaker 1: a hundred and eighties seven total yards defense set him
Speaker 1: up at least once in that ballgame. They were out
Speaker 1: first down by the Bucks thirty to thirteen. They were
Speaker 1: out gained five forty four to one eighties seven. I
Speaker 1: don't think I remember a bigger difference in yards in
Speaker 1: a game this year. Four yards geez two ten to
Speaker 1: sixty five on the ground. Yeah, that's ridiculous right time
Speaker 1: of possession, oh five. So there's no line. If they're
Speaker 1: if they're both playing, I would think Caroline is a favorite,
Speaker 1: and I would say Carolina a little bit more in
Speaker 1: the field, but I'd say Carolina mine is four. If
Speaker 1: they do. I've got Carolina, mine is three if they do.
Speaker 1: That's my number again, no home field advantage, no anything,
Speaker 1: and McCaffrey and McCaffrey might play too, right, Yeah, I
Speaker 1: was looking at a Tampa New Orleans and excuse it,
Speaker 1: he's going off on a little bit of a tangent. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm looking here at New Orleans the week before. Oh, okay,
Speaker 1: Tampa the week before. I'm sorry, Tampa. I mean such
Speaker 1: an aberration for how poorly they played, you know, uh,
Speaker 1: and then had a fantastic game yesterday. Who really played
Speaker 1: unbelievably well. So it just shows you how crazy this
Speaker 1: NFL is from week to week. So about Tampa looked
Speaker 1: great yesterday and looked absolutely horrible the week before. So uh,
Speaker 1: you know, but Caroline, I though I've played okay and
Speaker 1: I would have the three over Detroit if both quarterbacks
Speaker 1: are healthy. Let's do another one. Let's stink another one
Speaker 1: here before the break. New England at Houston, New England
Speaker 1: at Houston, New England with the outright winner last night
Speaker 1: in the monsoon in Foxborough. Um, go back to my
Speaker 1: college days in Boston. I'm like, why why would people
Speaker 1: live in this weather? It's horrific. I love you Boston though,
Speaker 1: It's a great place to go. To school. It was
Speaker 1: just a monsoon. New England gets it done, beats Baltimore
Speaker 1: to seventeen, does so as six and a half point
Speaker 1: closing dogs. Their consensus cam was thirteen of seventeen for
Speaker 1: one eighteen touchdown. Noe Pacy was sacked once. Jacoby Meyers,
Speaker 1: the law firm of Jacoby Myers for all your personal
Speaker 1: injury needs one of one as a as a passer
Speaker 1: for twenty four yards of a touch Daddy also caught
Speaker 1: five for fifty nine. Uh. Damian Harris twenty two for
Speaker 1: one one on the ground. That was the key. Uh.
Speaker 1: New England's four and five. Good for Bill Belichick and
Speaker 1: the Patriot. It's there at Houston. Houston, as we mentioned,
Speaker 1: loses in bad weather to Cleveland. DeShawn was one sixty
Speaker 1: three one touchdown. Note picks. He was sacked twice. He
Speaker 1: takes a lot of sacks twice in this one. Two
Speaker 1: three total yards was all Houston and Muster. I'll say, um,
Speaker 1: I'll say New England minus two and a half at
Speaker 1: Houston Gilley. That's exactly my number, New England and half. Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: well unfortunately or unfortunately that's not the number I see
Speaker 1: out there. So once again, I like your number better.
Speaker 1: I see it anywhere from Pick to the Texans as
Speaker 1: much as a one and a half point favorite. Uh
Speaker 1: you know again, I'm gonna open Yeah. I know Texans
Speaker 1: have just gone south and the Romeo Cornell by all
Speaker 1: accounts a wonderful, wonderful human being, but he's not doing
Speaker 1: a great job coaching this team. And I heard they're
Speaker 1: even thinking about keeping him for next year. I don't
Speaker 1: know about that. Well, probably the same guy that traded
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins is making that decision. So but I made
Speaker 1: New England two and a half. That's what my numbers
Speaker 1: came to. And again I think people are putting in
Speaker 1: our home gold advantage that should not exist. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: open Pick again just because I see it at the
Speaker 1: highest Houston one and a half, So I expect him
Speaker 1: that that Houston on me, which is just funny. Wow.
Speaker 1: So Cleveland Houston was the one that I thought was
Speaker 1: the most perplexing last week, and if Chubb doesn't go
Speaker 1: out of bounds, that one works. And here's New England Houston.
Speaker 1: So clearly it's the Texans that me and the market
Speaker 1: just don't see eyed eye on, Like I just don't
Speaker 1: get it with the Texans. What am I missing anything? Nothing?
Speaker 1: The Patriots are going to win that game. There it is.
Speaker 1: You don't even have to watch. We'll come back more
Speaker 1: more guessing lines coming back on the numbers game at Visa,
Speaker 1: these sports betting that where let's get through a couple
Speaker 1: more of these games here on Sunday. Okay, listen before
Speaker 1: we go further. I don't know if people are listening
Speaker 1: to our show or cooler heads are prevailing, But the
Speaker 1: Patriots are going to the favorite right now? Okay, okay,
Speaker 1: well but if you got if you even see pick them,
Speaker 1: I would say better now because they're going New England
Speaker 1: is going to the favorite. They're going to the favorite. Okay,
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna certainly open one and if I feel
Speaker 1: one and a half opening that because even the pickums
Speaker 1: are starting to disappear right now. Well we we would
Speaker 1: love to think that's based on our discussion here before
Speaker 1: the break um, but but I'm saying that does it
Speaker 1: doesn't like, how does it even come out the other way?
Speaker 1: That's nuts to me, Like, I just don't understand what
Speaker 1: the deal is with the Texans. I thought it was
Speaker 1: a miss price number last week against yesterday against the Okay,
Speaker 1: so it's it's a pick them so again, you can't
Speaker 1: bet the Patriots on a tease, on a perfect tease anymore.
Speaker 1: If you could at one and a half or whatever
Speaker 1: it was on the Texans spots, but man, that would
Speaker 1: have been sweet. Um. Oh, here's a Joe Pete as
Speaker 1: a Joe Pete tweet. You want to just throw up
Speaker 1: real quick about the Uh, how incredible is Bernard Longer
Speaker 1: making the cut at the Masters. Longer has competed in
Speaker 1: a major against Gene Saraz in board and able get
Speaker 1: Diegos born two thousand two opponents born a hundred years
Speaker 1: apart Sarahs and played his last major at the seventy
Speaker 1: six Open Championship, Langer's first. Yeah, Bernard Linger, good for him? Uh,
Speaker 1: getting it done, making the cut, the oldest player to
Speaker 1: ever make a cut at Augusta. All right, um, alright,
Speaker 1: cooler heads prevailing, as you're saying on New England at Houston.
Speaker 1: That one made no sense to me. What's next? Yeah?
Speaker 1: The boards lighting up? Anyway, Let's move on Steelers at
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. We're drunk with power right now, Chrissy, aren't we? Uh?
Speaker 1: Steelers Steelers from nine and oh boy boy, Cincinnati was
Speaker 1: the squarest of square dogs yesterday. Felt like I didn't
Speaker 1: know one person, I said on Primetime Action Friday, and
Speaker 1: I go, you know what scares me about this game?
Speaker 1: I don't know one person who likes the Steelers against
Speaker 1: the number. And that's assuming Big Ben came back, and
Speaker 1: he did. Got the negatives he needed after being on
Speaker 1: the COVID nineteen reserve list from tracing Big Ben yesterday
Speaker 1: against the Bengals in the UH Steelers thirty six to
Speaker 1: ten win as six and a half point favorites, he
Speaker 1: was twenty seven and forty six for three thirty three,
Speaker 1: four touchdowns, no picks, UH, no sacks. Johnson six six
Speaker 1: for one sixteen that's Deante six for one, sixteen for touchdown,
Speaker 1: ju June nine for seventy seven in touchdown, Claypool four
Speaker 1: for fifty six, two touchdowns. Steelers only needed forty four
Speaker 1: rushing yards, but they were plus two and turnovers that helps.
Speaker 1: And they're at Jacksonville, Jacksonville. Get all got all of
Speaker 1: us who or gave all of us who had the
Speaker 1: Packers and survivor a big scare. Jake Luton eighteen for
Speaker 1: thirty five one sixty nine, one touchdown, one pick. He
Speaker 1: was sacked three times, James Robinson again filling up the
Speaker 1: statute twenty three for one O nine only two hundred
Speaker 1: sixty total yards of offense for Jacksonville. They were helped
Speaker 1: by a Keelan cole ninety one yard punt return for
Speaker 1: a touchdown. Yesterday, I'll say Pittsburgh, Wow. I mean, this
Speaker 1: is gonna be a big survivor pick for anybody who
Speaker 1: has Pittsburgh left Pittsburgh minus. You know again, home field
Speaker 1: doesn't mean anything, but I get a feeling in these
Speaker 1: lines there in somehow incorporated. So I'll say it's only
Speaker 1: in quote it's Pittsburgh minus ten. Yeah, it's only ten. My, Uh, well,
Speaker 1: here's a line of and well it was a little
Speaker 1: later in the day. I'm sure a couple of guys
Speaker 1: who have a drinking game going diminishing returns. Uh. My
Speaker 1: power ratings come to sixteen on this game, because, uh,
Speaker 1: I think the Jaguars probably as bad as we thought
Speaker 1: they were gonna be at the beginning of a year.
Speaker 1: And Luton, he I mean he played okay, I mean
Speaker 1: for a guy that didn't get drafted, you know, etcetera, etcetera.
Speaker 1: But you know, I think it's just Green Bay was
Speaker 1: just nod into that game yesterday. They were just you know,
Speaker 1: walking through it. May Mike power rates come to sixteen.
Speaker 1: I see it pretty much a universal pen. You know.
Speaker 1: I think that's actually okay because you know, I know
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh could sleep walk through some of these games too,
Speaker 1: just like Green Bay did yesterday, and that's probably what
Speaker 1: I would expect them to do this Sunday. You know,
Speaker 1: they got big games coming up, including you know, the
Speaker 1: following following week against against the Ravens, so they're not
Speaker 1: going to show everything. So ten, I think it's a
Speaker 1: fine number, even though my numbers come a lot higher. Chris,
Speaker 1: I have a question for you. Why do you think
Speaker 1: Big Ben is not getting any conversation in the m
Speaker 1: v P race. It has nothing to do with you
Speaker 1: and get a large future on Ben Roethlisberger to win
Speaker 1: the MVP. Serious Jason's asking questions. I think he's starting
Speaker 1: to now, you know now that I mean because everybody,
Speaker 1: like two or three weeks ago, we just had Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson has been like probably a one to five favorite,
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, everybody just assumed he was going
Speaker 1: to get it, but now it's opened way up and
Speaker 1: I think people are opening their eyes to you know,
Speaker 1: I mean, Ben needs weapons, but so does every quarterback,
Speaker 1: you know. I mean you look with what my Homes
Speaker 1: has a casey um, But yeah he listen, he's got
Speaker 1: some weapons back that they didn't have it all last
Speaker 1: year in the brief time that he played. But yeah,
Speaker 1: I think he'll be in the conversation from here on,
Speaker 1: so and away, Jason, let me see what I could
Speaker 1: do to enhance your position. We're in free seeing him
Speaker 1: being in the conversation by having the conversation. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: that is that what you're doing. Well, Well, we influenced
Speaker 1: the Patriot Line universally quickly. We could do something with
Speaker 1: big bands, I will say with the m v P
Speaker 1: race though, Patrick Mahomes is Lebron right, Like, I think
Speaker 1: we'll get to the point with Patrick Mahomes where you
Speaker 1: could give it to him every year. Um, with Lebron,
Speaker 1: that's certainly the thing, and they just decide, well, we'll
Speaker 1: give it to this guy this year, We'll give it
Speaker 1: to that guy. But he's always in the conversation. You
Speaker 1: can always make a case for him. I don't think
Speaker 1: Mahomes has enough in his on his bookcase yet to
Speaker 1: be there. But I think we'll get there with him.
Speaker 1: But this feels to me now that Russell Wilson has
Speaker 1: sort of abdicated, you know, uh, the throne here, the
Speaker 1: leader in the clubhouse. If I can mix all kinds
Speaker 1: of metaphors, I kind of think it's Mahomes. Who's next.
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray in the conversation before. Yeah, but they they're
Speaker 1: not gonna win their division and probably and they might,
Speaker 1: they're not going to have as good of a season
Speaker 1: as the Steelers are likely or the Chiefs really, Kyler Murray,
Speaker 1: there's six and three, they're they're tied for the top
Speaker 1: of the division. You never know. Rogers is in the
Speaker 1: conversation for sure. Oh yeah, Rogers quietly doing his thing. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's a yeah, he's told Brady might get a little bit.
Speaker 1: Brady might get some acknowledgement, you know, you never know. Yeah,
Speaker 1: if you throw out, if you throw out games against
Speaker 1: New Orleans, what is it a game against Orlis? Tom
Speaker 1: Brady twenty one touchdowns in two picks. That's pretty I'm
Speaker 1: told that's good. It's impressive. Forty three years old, or
Speaker 1: thirty three years old thirty ninety nine said that, uh,
Speaker 1: forty three doing pretty good. Should we know we probably
Speaker 1: shouldn't squeeze in one. Well, let's see what's the next
Speaker 1: game here, Chris good one green Bay at Indianapolis. Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: we don't have enough time to do this, but it
Speaker 1: is seven and two green Bay against six and three
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Rogers. In that game against Jacksonville, twenty four of
Speaker 1: thirty four for three twenty five, two touchdowns. One Piggy
Speaker 1: was sacked once. Valdes Scantling Marques Valdes Scantling was a
Speaker 1: big target four for one forty nine and a touchdown,
Speaker 1: big seventy eight yard touchdown in that game against Jacksonville
Speaker 1: yesterday in green Bay's twenty four to twenty win, not
Speaker 1: even coming close to covering the fourteen points. And like
Speaker 1: I said, for survivor players like myself who had them sweat,
Speaker 1: and then there's Indianapolis, they'll be on extra rest. Remember
Speaker 1: they doubled up Tennessee on Thursday night where Philip Rivers
Speaker 1: was twenty nine of thirty nine for three oh eight
Speaker 1: one touchdown. Note Pixie was sacked once. Naim Hines two touchdowns,
Speaker 1: one on the ground, one through the air, four thirty
Speaker 1: total yards of offense, and that strange game Thursday night
Speaker 1: were Indianapolis felt like Tennessee just stopped playing in the
Speaker 1: second half. And we went through the whole dissertation Friday
Speaker 1: about how Philip Rivers won't sneak the football and yet
Speaker 1: they still want it that way. I'll say Indianapolis, but
Speaker 1: not quite by three, by two and a half. We'll
Speaker 1: get Chrissie's response. Next Guessing lines Week eleven. Right here
Speaker 1: in a numbers game at Visa the Sports Betting Network.
Speaker 1: Our number two of the numbers game right here at
Speaker 1: Visa the Sports Betty Network. Serious except channel two or
Speaker 1: four Visa dot Com. The Visa have Phobos, Legua Gay
Speaker 1: plus it is Gill Alexander. Jason Khan is here as well,
Speaker 1: asking questions through the prism of his bets, just to
Speaker 1: try to manifest Big Ben too. H m v P.
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's gonna happen, but not terrible
Speaker 1: by the way. I just think he should be in
Speaker 1: the conversation. That's all all right. I mean his team
Speaker 1: is undefeated nine and oh you think they can get there?
Speaker 1: Just have him in the conversation. I don't think they'll
Speaker 1: be undefeated. Undefeated, but if he goes sixteen and no,
Speaker 1: that would help your cause, right for sure. So that's
Speaker 1: what you should be rooting for. Okay, I'm rooting for that. Okay,
Speaker 1: that's that's you're in. That's you're in. We've identified you're in. Uh.
Speaker 1: It's all about guessing lines for week eleven and trying
Speaker 1: to extract value from the exercise of guessing lines on
Speaker 1: Chris Andrews and I Chrissie Mysa. We've we've already decided
Speaker 1: that we moved to New England Houston line moments ago.
Speaker 1: That's what we're going with, Chris. Green Bay in Indianapolis
Speaker 1: is an early game still Sunday. No, that got moved
Speaker 1: to the afternoon. It's in the ear that moved to
Speaker 1: the ano. Yeah, because that's a game between division the
Speaker 1: leaders right there, Indianapolis a co leader with Tennessee in
Speaker 1: the an f C South. I'll say, given given the
Speaker 1: backdrop of what I just mentioned before, but I'll say
Speaker 1: Indianapolis minus two and a half, you're a shade high.
Speaker 1: It's one and a half and two. Uh, my numbers
Speaker 1: still come to Green Bay one. Um, you know, listen,
Speaker 1: Indianapolis is playing much better in the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: and I still have my questions about them as a
Speaker 1: team and Rivers specifically. I quoted himbo before talking about
Speaker 1: Whence having six games under under fifty for a q BR,
Speaker 1: that's you know, tops in the league. But uh, well,
Speaker 1: Drew Lock will get to him a little bit from
Speaker 1: Denver second. But there's a bunch with four Rivers is amongst.
Speaker 1: I mean, he plays really well and he had a
Speaker 1: great game. I thought he and the team looked fantastic
Speaker 1: Thursday night. But I'm not letting one game, you know,
Speaker 1: get ahold of me that much. Um, you know, they
Speaker 1: aren't playing better as a team. But I still think
Speaker 1: I like green Baby going there and win this game.
Speaker 1: I make them a very slight thing that I make
Speaker 1: a one. I'd like to see I see it one
Speaker 1: and a half and two. I think I'll open a
Speaker 1: one and a half. Yeah, they might get me the
Speaker 1: colt if I see it dropping on then a drop
Speaker 1: because I do. I think Green Bay should be a
Speaker 1: very very slight favorite this game. Yeah, and I went
Speaker 1: through it Friday eight circumstances against the Titans, where Philip
Speaker 1: Rivers could have snuck the football, they chose not to
Speaker 1: do it. The eighth time was was a was a
Speaker 1: pinch sneak from Jacoby Brissette. So it was sort of
Speaker 1: like Philip Rivers finally coming out and uh and saying, uh, yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't do this, and maybe it's in my contract.
Speaker 1: I'm just not letting you guys know. Um, but I
Speaker 1: just think that that is a competitive disadvantage. It was
Speaker 1: for the Chargers all those years. It is for the
Speaker 1: Cults in those moments. Those are high leverage situations. For
Speaker 1: those wondering why do you keep harping on the sneak thing,
Speaker 1: because those are high leverage situations in football games, and
Speaker 1: when you have money on these, It's the equivalent again
Speaker 1: of runners in scoring position in baseball. It's as if
Speaker 1: when runners on second and third, batter goes, yeah, I
Speaker 1: can't do this. You're gonna have to sub me out
Speaker 1: right here. Somebody else gotta come in and do this
Speaker 1: for me. It's just it's the weirdest thing, and it
Speaker 1: was not enough has been made of it throughout his career,
Speaker 1: and it's rearing its head and I think it will
Speaker 1: wear its head in a very key situation for the
Speaker 1: Colts moving forward. Just file that away. So you've got
Speaker 1: it as Colts minus one and a half. Is that
Speaker 1: what you said? You know my question? And somebody brought
Speaker 1: this up on squitter. I can't remember what. How did
Speaker 1: Tennessee not know that that was gonna be a sneak
Speaker 1: when they brought it and when they brought into Kobe,
Speaker 1: I mean I didn't even realize he was in there
Speaker 1: by a coach just supposed to understand that, you know. Geez, yeah,
Speaker 1: you would have thought talk about telegraphing. Yeah, alright, we're
Speaker 1: halfway through. What's the next? Cincinnati at your Washington football team?
Speaker 1: Washington still alive the NFC's despite despite their loss to
Speaker 1: Detroit yesterday and Cincinnati again got housed by the Steelers.
Speaker 1: Cincinnati's two six and one, Washington is two and seven.
Speaker 1: So Washington is what that makes them? A game and
Speaker 1: a half back in the NFC East. Is that what
Speaker 1: it comes out to? Yeah? Game and a half back?
Speaker 1: Um yeah um. Joe Burrow yesterday twenty one of forty
Speaker 1: against the Steelers for two thirteen, one touchdown note picks.
Speaker 1: He was sacked four times. Tee Higgins is his dude, though,
Speaker 1: that's his target. Seven for one, fifteen and touch down.
Speaker 1: The Bengals were oh for thirteen on third downs, two
Speaker 1: for three on four, two for three on four. Uh.
Speaker 1: They were minus two in turnovers. Were the Bengals. They're
Speaker 1: oh seventeen and one in their last eighteen road games.
Speaker 1: There four twenty and one under Zach Taylor. Should I
Speaker 1: stop because I could go on and on all day
Speaker 1: with these, But by the way, they're ridiculous on fourth
Speaker 1: downs this year, like fourteen of sixteen. Skill Alexander, It's
Speaker 1: Chrissie Andrews. This is a numbers game right here on Visa,
Speaker 1: the sports spending Network, serious XM, channel two oh four,
Speaker 1: Visa dot Com, the Visa app food boastling a game plus.
Speaker 1: But Cincinnati oh fort zero for thirteen on third downs
Speaker 1: against the Steelers yesterday. Uh. And then there's Washington. Alex
Speaker 1: Smith thirty eight for fifty five and three ninety no touchdowns,
Speaker 1: no picks, sacked twice. Now, I said this before the
Speaker 1: season even started. I said, if Alex Smith takes even
Speaker 1: one snap and throws one forward pass, and I said,
Speaker 1: I don't care if he throws it into the dirt,
Speaker 1: He's your comeback player of the year. Well, barring a
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins or Nick Foles explosion tonight, he will have
Speaker 1: thrown for the most yards in the NFL this weekend,
Speaker 1: three ninety. He is your comeback player of the year. End.
Speaker 1: The discussion with the odds were on him leading the
Speaker 1: weekend past. Oh man, I'm terrified every time he backs
Speaker 1: up to Bess. You're not alone. Yeah, it's just it's
Speaker 1: just not fun to watch. Terry mcclorin always fills up
Speaker 1: stat sheets. Seven for nine, Antonio Gibson with two fourth
Speaker 1: quarter touchdowns fo six total yards for Washington. Again. They
Speaker 1: made up a twenty one point deficit in this game,
Speaker 1: only to lose at the end on a Matt Prator
Speaker 1: fifty nine yard or to win it after Washington tied
Speaker 1: it up at twenty four apiece. Three plays was all
Speaker 1: it took to get to Prater's fifty nine yard attempt,
Speaker 1: largely because of Chase Young's horrific roughing the passer penalty.
Speaker 1: I'll take Chase Young every day, but man, that was bad.
Speaker 1: Cincinnatia Washington, Real barn Burner Washington. I mean, I'll split
Speaker 1: the difference between a pick him and the three, and
Speaker 1: I'll just say one and a half to be lazy.
Speaker 1: It's one or one and a half. I like Washington
Speaker 1: one little better. In fact, my numbers have sent to
Speaker 1: a very very slight favorite. I'm not sure that's actually correct.
Speaker 1: A couple of things that really probably should have alerted
Speaker 1: us before the game. In the Cincinnati game, Mike Tomlan
Speaker 1: and I didn't hear this toy after the game, but
Speaker 1: he said, you know, we wanted to introduce Joe Brown
Speaker 1: paraphrasing that we wanted to introduce Joe Burrows to the
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers and show him what he has to look
Speaker 1: forward to twice a year for the rest of his career.
Speaker 1: So that team was a little focused. I would say,
Speaker 1: you know, uh, but you know, Alex Smith played fantastic,
Speaker 1: But Jason, what's wrong with the Ben Roethlisberger comeback Player
Speaker 1: of the Year. You know he's got to be in
Speaker 1: that conversation too, I guess, but it'll go to Alex Smith.
Speaker 1: It'll go to Smith. Um, I don't have a bad anyway.
Speaker 1: Have you seen the E sixty on Alex Smith? Chris
Speaker 1: he did. It's hard to watch to watch, but it's
Speaker 1: just why he's even playing. I have no idea. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think I gotta packed her up. You know, if
Speaker 1: I were he he's made plenty of money and then
Speaker 1: kids pack it up. Yeah, seems like a really good guy,
Speaker 1: you know, great, you know, I think that ended up
Speaker 1: having a very good career. People thought he was a bust.
Speaker 1: Ended up having a really good career. Got kaepernicked in
Speaker 1: San Francisco, played well, and then you know, got mahomes
Speaker 1: in Kansas City, a couple of playoff wins with San
Speaker 1: Francisco if I remember correctly, like before Kaepernick like he
Speaker 1: oh yeah, that great game against New Orleans. Yeah yeah,
Speaker 1: all right, Well, wishing the best, certainly do just by
Speaker 1: the way before we let our influence in the market
Speaker 1: go to our heads, at least from me perfectly. The
Speaker 1: cults are going to like a two and a half
Speaker 1: and three point favorite as we speak. I had money
Speaker 1: showing on the coal Green Bay one. So maybe it's
Speaker 1: me that my head is too big, which I guess
Speaker 1: it's too big if you ever saw it. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: open a little higher. I'm gonna see what the market
Speaker 1: fell that could. Probably I'm looking at two and a
Speaker 1: half because like there are some trees around. By the way, Christie,
Speaker 1: you're feeling better. Yes, you sound like you're feeling much better.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I've been negative for quite a while. But
Speaker 1: we had some other issues we had to clear up.
Speaker 1: So you know, okay, good, yeah, yeah, we got plenty more.
Speaker 1: What's next Tennessee at Baltimore. Well that's good too. So
Speaker 1: Tennessee and a co lead for the a f C
Speaker 1: South Division six and three Baltimore now six and three.
Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill in the game this past Thursday night was
Speaker 1: only fifteen of twenty seven for one seven one touchdown.
Speaker 1: Note Pixie was sacked once. Derrick Henry was nineteen for
Speaker 1: one oh three last night Baltimore in the monsoon against
Speaker 1: the Patriots, and again they lose it out right. That
Speaker 1: got all of three survivors at a three three ten
Speaker 1: went down to three oh one in circa as I mentioned,
Speaker 1: six six on the on the Eagles, three on the Ravens.
Speaker 1: Jackson Lamar was thirty four yesterday for forty nine, two touchdowns,
Speaker 1: one pick. He was sacked twice. Eleven carries for fifty
Speaker 1: five yards. Now, um, here's the thing. There's an epidemic
Speaker 1: of bad spotting of football's too. Can I just mention this,
Speaker 1: There was one really bad spot laid in this game
Speaker 1: for New England. First of all, Baltimore got screwed a
Speaker 1: couple of times, one on the bad spot, but one
Speaker 1: that Jude on penalty on defense was so ticky. Tech
Speaker 1: Um kept a drive going for New England. But the
Speaker 1: spotting thing like this an epidemic. Did you see Miami
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech on Saturday? There was at least three occasions
Speaker 1: twice for the Canes, one for the Hokeys where nine
Speaker 1: yards were gained or it was just one yard shy
Speaker 1: of the marker two game, and the refs just casually like, yeah,
Speaker 1: my first town, and they moved the change. And I'm
Speaker 1: just like, is anybody gonna complain about this over and
Speaker 1: over and over again, Like people are betting on this stuff.
Speaker 1: Stop it. If it's nine yards, it's nine yards. They
Speaker 1: should be able to integrate technology into the spotting and
Speaker 1: make it a lot more seamless. It's like Todd Wishnev's
Speaker 1: old what he called the zigzag diagonal spotting of referees. Anyway,
Speaker 1: there's one of these in this game too. It was
Speaker 1: a total monsoon by the end of that game. It
Speaker 1: really looked like Baltimore just wanted to get the heck
Speaker 1: out of there. But Baltimore is facing ten See Tennessee
Speaker 1: with a little bit of extra rest. This is a
Speaker 1: tough one to make because I just think if I
Speaker 1: make it, if it's Baltimore three or four, everybody but
Speaker 1: will bet Baltimore. If it's Baltimore six or seven, everybody
Speaker 1: will bet the Titans. I'll just put in no man's
Speaker 1: land at five and a half and let the hate
Speaker 1: wash over me. What is this one going to be? Well?
Speaker 1: I kind of like your number better once again, I
Speaker 1: see six and six and a half. My numbers came
Speaker 1: to four and a half. Neither team is playing that
Speaker 1: great right now. A month ago this would have been
Speaker 1: a much better game. But like I said, both teams
Speaker 1: I think I hit the skids a little bit. I
Speaker 1: don't you know, I've got four and a half. You know,
Speaker 1: at first glance looked a little cheap, and and maybe
Speaker 1: it is, but the six six and a half looks
Speaker 1: a little too live. But I'm gonna open six just
Speaker 1: because there's higher numbers out there, and uh, they want
Speaker 1: to bet me Baltimore. I'm gonna make them lamey to six,
Speaker 1: which I think probably a lot of guys will Interesting.
Speaker 1: This is a rematch, of course, of the big playoff
Speaker 1: game last year, where the Titans are upset the Ravens.
Speaker 1: You get me six or seven, I may, I may
Speaker 1: take all those points. I'll take those points in Wentland.
Speaker 1: You know, if you beat me, you beat me. Tip
Speaker 1: of the cat. Interesting that is that an afternoon game? Also,
Speaker 1: these are afternoon games. Now that's stillings. Now we go
Speaker 1: to the afternoon. Okay, now we'll go to the afternoon.
Speaker 1: By the way, the point spread mattered in four games yesterday,
Speaker 1: yes number that. Well, it ended up mattering in Houston
Speaker 1: Cleveland because you know why, well, you know it's still matter.
Speaker 1: What can I tell you? Yeah, it ended up mattering
Speaker 1: in Arizona Buffalo because you know why. You know, so
Speaker 1: those are two right there. Well that's football. Well, it's football.
Speaker 1: But now see I would add add there's this extra
Speaker 1: layer again of coaches in some cases being more heavy
Speaker 1: than they used to be. So in some cases I
Speaker 1: applaud it, like again the Kingsbury thing, assuming he knew
Speaker 1: what he was doing there, way to go, he's in
Speaker 1: your head. And in the case of Chub. I'm just
Speaker 1: sort of like, do we really what we're doing? I mean,
Speaker 1: I mean, I get it goes to a hundred percent
Speaker 1: from nine point nine, but okay, and then you know
Speaker 1: the Eagles thing with the Giants. This is why I
Speaker 1: know this is all like I can't trust any of it.
Speaker 1: The fact that Doug Peterson will go for two, sometimes
Speaker 1: correctly and sometimes it's just like, what are you doing now,
Speaker 1: Doug Peterson? Like why who told you this was the
Speaker 1: right play? But I guess they know. I guess they've
Speaker 1: they figured it out that it's for them, it's the
Speaker 1: smart play. Okay. Um, not to disparage your your four
Speaker 1: times the spread matter thing, but yeah, those were two
Speaker 1: quirky endings. But it's football. And I would add that
Speaker 1: it's harder and harder every week in the NFL with
Speaker 1: stuff like that. What's next? Maybe they were watching The
Speaker 1: Queen's Gambit and they're trying to play again. Well, you know,
Speaker 1: it's funny you mentioned that. It's what do you mention that?
Speaker 1: By the way, I thought The Queen's Gambit fell off
Speaker 1: the rails like the last couple of episodes. I thought
Speaker 1: it was really good for the first five and then
Speaker 1: last couple, I was like, that wasn't great. Uh. Parlay
Speaker 1: Producing Number five texted me last night about the Baltimore
Speaker 1: New England game and he said, am I crazy? Or
Speaker 1: should New England have gone or no, should Baltimore have
Speaker 1: gone for two when they went for one? At one point?
Speaker 1: I was like, what's your thinking there? He goes, well,
Speaker 1: because then if New England kicks a field goal, they'll
Speaker 1: only be down eight as opposed to nine. I can't
Speaker 1: remember the situation. And I said to him, exactly what
Speaker 1: you just said. With the Queen's Gambit, which, for those
Speaker 1: who don't know, is this series or this this dramatic
Speaker 1: episodic series on on Netflix, and it's rooted in chess.
Speaker 1: It's it's fictional, but it's rooted in the sports chess.
Speaker 1: And I said to Jeff, I go, you're playing chess,
Speaker 1: they're playing checkers because you're already thinking two steps ahead,
Speaker 1: and I don't think these guys are thinking that. So yeah,
Speaker 1: once we start doing that, Once we start, you know,
Speaker 1: if I do two here and then they do three there,
Speaker 1: oh my god, we're gonna drive ourselves crazy. Um. Not
Speaker 1: that he was wrong, but I don't think they're thinking
Speaker 1: on that level. All right, what's next? Okay, Dallas at
Speaker 1: Minnesota and I see sub sporadic numbers unlessure if they're
Speaker 1: old ones or new ones and mayas I'm sure at
Speaker 1: this point is that Andy Dalton will be playing right now,
Speaker 1: they've got him questionable, but I think it's likely that
Speaker 1: he played this. Uh this something well, we haven't seen Minnesota.
Speaker 1: They played the Bears tonight again. Yeah, this will be
Speaker 1: really hard to make because if Minnesota crushes the Bears,
Speaker 1: this could be pretty high. It's a short week in Minnesota, though,
Speaker 1: and copies are on bye week. But I could say
Speaker 1: if the Bears crushed Minnesota, I mean this, this is
Speaker 1: not going to be you know, this will be muted
Speaker 1: anywhere between. I can't make this line. This is difficult.
Speaker 1: I'll say, just to throw it out there, I'll say
Speaker 1: Minnesota minus four and a half. But that's just me
Speaker 1: hedging both ways. I think you're way light. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: anywhere between seven and a half and nine. Oh wait
Speaker 1: a minute, really, yeah, I got Minnesota, you know, I mean,
Speaker 1: my numbers come a lot higher than that. I hate
Speaker 1: to tell you. If it's got Minnesota playing really good football, right, now,
Speaker 1: And I say poised to make a run. And I
Speaker 1: know you guys like the Bears tonight. I don't. I
Speaker 1: definitely do not. I like Minnesota tonight. And like I said,
Speaker 1: I think this team is poised to make a run.
Speaker 1: And if they looked good tonight, I think it's going
Speaker 1: to be I think they might be looking at double digits. Wow. Now,
Speaker 1: I'm not opinion. Don't get me wrong. I'm not racing
Speaker 1: to beout the Dallas Cowboys in any situation. But I
Speaker 1: don't think Minnesota should be favorites like that over anybody.
Speaker 1: But we'll see tonight, We'll see how they play. Could
Speaker 1: change my mind. How many games of Dallas covered this year?
Speaker 1: How many games? One game? At one? They covered the
Speaker 1: Steelers that was their first game, one in eight after
Speaker 1: being so, you're saying that's not good, Chris? Is that
Speaker 1: what I'm getting from you? And Andy didn't cover that game.
Speaker 1: It was Garrett. The other guy covered the game. I
Speaker 1: forget his name, the breast Scott Yeah, oh no, no,
Speaker 1: Garrett Gilbert. Yeah, he was the guy who was great. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you're right, he's their best looking quarterbacks so far this year.
Speaker 1: Well you know why I remember that because I had
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and Survivor then to every Survivor week is a
Speaker 1: sweat everything, and now the gauntlet begins. Good lord, how
Speaker 1: are you gonna play? Your four picks are four entries, Chrissy,
Speaker 1: you can break them up now. Yeah. I don't know
Speaker 1: what we're gonna do this week, because we've got to
Speaker 1: say some powder for Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving that a week. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's gonna be tough. I'm looking at those games. That's
Speaker 1: gonna be tough. Like an interesting note on Garrett Gilbert
Speaker 1: when he was in Texas, Andrew Luck wanted to go
Speaker 1: to Texas, but they didn't want Andrew Luck because they
Speaker 1: were committed to Garrett Gilbert. Well, he was the guy.
Speaker 1: Garrett Gilbert was the guy. If you remember when Colt
Speaker 1: McCoy had weak arm against Alabama, do you remember what
Speaker 1: his arm just went dead? That was Garret Gilbert around. Yeah, yeah, wow,
Speaker 1: that's all. That's when last we heard from Garrett Gilbert.
Speaker 1: He was playing in the National Championship kind of things. Well,
Speaker 1: he was in the short lived Football League last playing
Speaker 1: on and he was quite good. Right Yeah, then, yeah,
Speaker 1: I wish I had known that before I had bet
Speaker 1: on the Steelers I don't know how I feel about
Speaker 1: that Minnesota Dallas line. But we'll just wait to see
Speaker 1: what happens tonight. I see where that comes out. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not putting anything up there. It's okay, way too
Speaker 1: out there. Okay. Next up, another really good game, Chiefs
Speaker 1: at the Raiders. Che's at the Raiders. Chief that's that's
Speaker 1: the Sunday night game that last. Yeah, let's do that.
Speaker 1: Let's do that second to last, and it's proper lay. Okay, okay,
Speaker 1: So next up time wise, Miami at Denver. Miami wins again,
Speaker 1: push at worst on their season win total. For those
Speaker 1: of us who have Miami over six looking good, it's
Speaker 1: a free roll from here. In two against the spread.
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins best starts since two thousand one at six
Speaker 1: and three two uh fifteen of twenty five, six, two touchdowns,
Speaker 1: no picks, and it wasn't sacked sal vonam eight six
Speaker 1: and a touchdown, two eighty one total yards for the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: A blocked hunt for the Dolphins set up their first
Speaker 1: score first and goal at the one. Three straight weeks
Speaker 1: in which the defense is either scored or set up
Speaker 1: a short field score, including I think two weeks in
Speaker 1: a row now from the one on short fields. Um
Speaker 1: so we helped out once again by the defense and
Speaker 1: the special teams in this case. And then there's Denver.
Speaker 1: Denver gets destroyed yesterday by the Raiders thirty seven to
Speaker 1: twelve as four and a half point dogs. There was
Speaker 1: no comeback from the Broncos this time to make it
Speaker 1: cosmetically acceptable or at least look acceptable. Drew Lock twenty
Speaker 1: three forty eight for two fifty seven, one touchdown and
Speaker 1: a career high four picks, sack twice. The Bronchos were
Speaker 1: minus five in turnovers, that's all you need to know,
Speaker 1: and four of those were Lock picks. Miami will be favorites.
Speaker 1: They will be favorites by more than a field goal.
Speaker 1: Say Miami minus four. I like your number way better.
Speaker 1: I hate to tell you, by the way, numbers like
Speaker 1: two and a juice on the favorite, three juice on
Speaker 1: the duck. You know, we went through this last week.
Speaker 1: You know, every wise guy in town and I'm lucky,
Speaker 1: and every one of them had the Chargers against Miami issue,
Speaker 1: and we said it on this show. And I know
Speaker 1: I said, as you have one team that finds a
Speaker 1: way to lose every week, and another team that finds
Speaker 1: a way to win every week. And I had nothing.
Speaker 1: I was that great. I was two and two on
Speaker 1: the picks that I gave last Monday, but Miami was
Speaker 1: one of I like Miami, I listen. I also like
Speaker 1: Denver yesterday to getting points, but that was another game.
Speaker 1: Every wise guy in town had Denver, every one of them.
Speaker 1: At Denver, we had we need to say we had
Speaker 1: them on both our picks. You know that I got
Speaker 1: out voted, um but you know Drew Lock is not
Speaker 1: a good quarterback fan Joe is not a good head coach.
Speaker 1: I like this number a lot higher. My power ring
Speaker 1: has come a lot higher. So I will open the three.
Speaker 1: They'll take it, they could have it, but I plan
Speaker 1: on one and need Miami in this game because they're
Speaker 1: much better, much much better than Denver. Yeah. I will
Speaker 1: happily take Miami at three and again tip of the
Speaker 1: cap if you beat me Miami. Of course, beating the
Speaker 1: Chargers by eight charges kept it within one score, but
Speaker 1: Miami gets it done six and three, season win too
Speaker 1: before the season was six, and they are live for
Speaker 1: the division. Love that coming back Guessing lines Week eleven
Speaker 1: continues right here on the numbers game at Visa These
Speaker 1: Sports Betting Network. The Guessing Lines Week eleven, brought you
Speaker 1: by bet MGM Novad It's my mich book of Christie
Speaker 1: Andrews from behind the desk here at the South Point
Speaker 1: Hotel Casino. Chrissy, where where are we? I don't know,
Speaker 1: but allow me to change the subject at least for
Speaker 1: God's sakes, Thanks Chrissy. Back to the back to Miami
Speaker 1: and Denver. I talked about Himbo earlier in the show.
Speaker 1: He had the list of guys who had qbrs under
Speaker 1: fifty once I had the most six lock is sacked. Geez.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. I've been waiting for this
Speaker 1: guy to show something. Maybe it's Fanjioho. I don't like
Speaker 1: the coach. And on the other side, Brian Flores, What
Speaker 1: a fantastic coach. This guy has turned out to be.
Speaker 1: I mean, between him and Mike Gravel, finally we got
Speaker 1: two guys out of the Bill Belichick coaching tree that
Speaker 1: have shown to be very, very good coaches. And you know,
Speaker 1: I was against the move to make two of the
Speaker 1: starting quarterback, but now that I look at it, he
Speaker 1: made the right move. This guy did. Uh, He's incredible
Speaker 1: and I'm telling you there's a really well coached team.
Speaker 1: They got some talent. You know, they're not there yet,
Speaker 1: but they're getting there, and they got the right guys
Speaker 1: in place. I mean, I'm very bullish on Miami futures.
Speaker 1: I can tell you that we haven't met futures for
Speaker 1: this year to win the Super Bowl. But there's a
Speaker 1: good team, but a good coach and a good quarterback. Again,
Speaker 1: I'll say it again from before the season, only three
Speaker 1: bets I made under New England season wins over Miami
Speaker 1: and Dolphins to win the a f C East at
Speaker 1: plus eleven fifty and there game back. This could happen.
Speaker 1: And the other thing I said off was Brian Flores
Speaker 1: to win Coach of the Year at one might be
Speaker 1: the best way to play the Dolphins, and that's looking
Speaker 1: pretty damn good right now too. Dolphins were six to
Speaker 1: one to win the East a couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 1: and I got them. Then they got a tough they
Speaker 1: got a tough schedule. I mean, it's probably still not
Speaker 1: gonna happen. They need a little help. I mean, it
Speaker 1: is really up here about it. But just the fact
Speaker 1: that they're live here at this point is is fun
Speaker 1: to talk about. All right. Yeah, they're not there yet,
Speaker 1: but they're dawned close. That's a good good I love
Speaker 1: him this week against really yeah I do too. At
Speaker 1: that number at three, my goodness, and Drew luck as
Speaker 1: you said, people in Denver will tell you he's not
Speaker 1: the answer for sure. All right, he's not getting it.
Speaker 1: Let's sneak one. Next up, Jets at the Chargers, oh
Speaker 1: and nine Jets, two and seven Chargers. It's ever been
Speaker 1: a team oh and nine that's that much worse than
Speaker 1: the two and seven team because the Charges again Aaron
Speaker 1: shots from football outsiders, and they're the most consistent team
Speaker 1: every week they show up. He's right, they don't win though.
Speaker 1: Herbert thirty two yesterday and the loss to the Dolphins
Speaker 1: eight point loss for one seven, two touchdowns, one pick.
Speaker 1: He was sacked twice. He's the first rookie ever with
Speaker 1: two plus touchdown passes in six straight games. But the
Speaker 1: Charges have allowed twenty nine plus points in six straight games,
Speaker 1: all seven losses this year by one score, eight points,
Speaker 1: a fewer seventy three total yards yesterday against the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: Charges will be more than a touchdown favorite. They'll be
Speaker 1: minus seven and a half. I'll say you're a little light.
Speaker 1: My power ring has come to nine, and I see
Speaker 1: this game in everywhere between eight and nine. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: open nine, and uh, I'm sure I'm gonna have the
Speaker 1: Chargers and some of my Survival picks. But I just
Speaker 1: think looking on the sidelines and uh, Anthony Lynn looking
Speaker 1: like somebody please get me out of this. It is
Speaker 1: really true. He could be this same the hopefully could
Speaker 1: be just it's I mean, I guess, I guess we
Speaker 1: had Pittsburgh against the Jaguars that was a higher number
Speaker 1: than this, but really is can you trust the Chargers
Speaker 1: in Survivor? The Jets are sorry. The Jets are coming
Speaker 1: off their best game at the season and bye week,
Speaker 1: best game of their season and a bye week extra
Speaker 1: rest for the New York Jets. Chrissy, Oh my god,
Speaker 1: I know I'm gonna have I know, I know you don't.
Speaker 1: You got to save some of the good dames. Can't
Speaker 1: use them all, you know, That's nature of the game.
Speaker 1: The Survivor Gaunt, which begins this week, then Thanksgiving, then
Speaker 1: the following Sunday, three and a seven. We call it
Speaker 1: eight day span coming back numbers game Visa guessing lines
Speaker 1: some more for week three, Week eleven, rather next right
Speaker 1: here at Visa. All right, let's do let's away, Yes,
Speaker 1: go ahead, we have a couple of minutes. We only
Speaker 1: have two games left. Yeah, we got Let me give
Speaker 1: you a little blur. I've teased about this all year.
Speaker 1: My book that I'm writing, Okay, was gonna was meant
Speaker 1: to be and it's would and is. There was a
Speaker 1: journal from one super Bowl to the next, like a
Speaker 1: year in the life of a bookmaker. Well, needless to say,
Speaker 1: this year in the life of anybody is nowhere near
Speaker 1: what we thought it was gonna be. I've been sharing
Speaker 1: my stuff with Anthony Curtis and the Deep castleman who
Speaker 1: is his editor, and so far they're loving it. I mean,
Speaker 1: think of all this stuff that's happened, you know, first
Speaker 1: of all, Kobe Bryant's death. We forget all about that,
Speaker 1: you know. I Mean I started, like with the championship
Speaker 1: games leading into the Super Bowl, and I was just
Speaker 1: gonna keep a daily journal. You know. We had racial unrest,
Speaker 1: which unfortunately had to make it into the book. He
Speaker 1: couldn't just ignore it because of affecting sports. I tried
Speaker 1: to keep it to anything that that affected sports strictly
Speaker 1: through the eyes of a bookmaker and the world of
Speaker 1: sports and bettings and bookmaker. It's uh, this book went
Speaker 1: nowhere near where I thought I was going to go.
Speaker 1: How could you have? Yeah, like I said, when the
Speaker 1: Kobe Bryant thing happened, my first thought was wild. You know,
Speaker 1: this was a huge curveball. We've almost forgotten about that.
Speaker 1: There's been so much that's happened since then, you know,
Speaker 1: with COVID and like I said, Rachel unrest and just
Speaker 1: things going absolutely bumpers. This year really kept the journal
Speaker 1: since last year, and I think this book is going
Speaker 1: to do fairly well any working title or not yet. Uh.
Speaker 1: The working title was like a bookmaker's Season, So you know,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know if I'm gonna stick with
Speaker 1: that or not. You know, like I said, the intention,
Speaker 1: what I planned on is nowhere near what I wound
Speaker 1: up with. We all and we all remember where we
Speaker 1: were when when we got the first text or the
Speaker 1: first news of Kobe, and yeah, for sure, and then
Speaker 1: Chris of course getting COVID himself. You know something else
Speaker 1: you could pardon me, is you getting and dealing with it,
Speaker 1: going to be in the book. I guess it's not
Speaker 1: really sports related. Deal with me. Yeah, I'm a little stuff.
Speaker 1: Have that much to deal with. It wasn't as bad
Speaker 1: as it was for other people. Wow, well we'll be
Speaker 1: in there. I think it's gonna be an interesting book.
Speaker 1: We look forward to that. CHRISY Andrews already the author
Speaker 1: of Then One Day, available at Amazon. We look forward
Speaker 1: to that book as when one year, well it's great,
Speaker 1: called it. Then one year we'll come back. We'll do
Speaker 1: the prime time games. Tell you what we like best.
Speaker 1: Hear guessing lines, Week eleven numbers, game Visa, the sports
Speaker 1: betting networks. To be clear, you like the Bears tonight,
Speaker 1: I will take the Bears in a teaser. I will
Speaker 1: not play them straight. I already have the Bears in
Speaker 1: a teaser open still, so yeah, that's gonna be where
Speaker 1: I end up. I'm not sure about the plus three,
Speaker 1: but I'm I'm quite happy with the teaser position, all right,
Speaker 1: Chris Andrews. Everybody from the South Point Hotel Casino Sports Book.
Speaker 1: Sunday Night, Chrissie Sunday A night, This great game, Kansas
Speaker 1: City at Las Vegas. The Raiders the only team to
Speaker 1: have beaten the Chiefs this year, Chiefs eight and one, coasting.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's all one big exhibition for the
Speaker 1: Chiefs to repeat. Can't help that feeling in my head. Um,
Speaker 1: Derek Carr. Yesterday and the Raiders win over the Broncos.
Speaker 1: And again it was thirty seven to twelve, five for one,
Speaker 1: fifty four, no touchdowns, no picks, wasn't sacked, just you know,
Speaker 1: casual day at the officer Derek Carr, Josh Jacob one twelve,
Speaker 1: two touchdowns. As we mentioned with the Broncos game, the
Speaker 1: Raiders were plus five and turnovers. That's all you need
Speaker 1: to know. The Raiders had five total takeaways in their
Speaker 1: first eight games, had five. Yesterday won the time of
Speaker 1: possession battle thirty five Kansas City coming off of bye,
Speaker 1: I'll say it's the Chiefs minus six and a half. Well,
Speaker 1: you're right on, um, I made the game six, so
Speaker 1: I have no but the six and a half. There
Speaker 1: was some sevens around earlier, but they're they're gone. I
Speaker 1: see a couple of sevens with juice on the dog. Um,
Speaker 1: I think seven will probably be a take for me
Speaker 1: in this game. But I think six and a half
Speaker 1: kind of makes you pause and think a little bit.
Speaker 1: I think that's a really good place to start. So
Speaker 1: I have no beef at all with the six and
Speaker 1: a half. I think that's a good number for a great,
Speaker 1: great Sunday night game. I'm proud of myself for hitting
Speaker 1: that one. Okay, Monday night the Rams at Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: Rams beat the Seahawks yesterday they do so. Um again,
Speaker 1: perfect sort of set up for the Rams yesterday. With
Speaker 1: the bye week, Sean McVeigh had two weeks to scheme
Speaker 1: up against his defense. They hadn't Winny by a touchdown
Speaker 1: three to sixteen. Um, here's the stat for you, Sean
Speaker 1: McVeigh thirty one and oh when he leads at halftime?
Speaker 1: How about that? I saw that. That's pretty good. Here
Speaker 1: here's one I even like better. The Rams defense this
Speaker 1: year has given up a max of three points in
Speaker 1: the second halves of eight of their nine games this year.
Speaker 1: It feels like they're the most surprising unit of the years.
Speaker 1: The Rams defense. Yeah, well, they got Aaron Donald and
Speaker 1: they got Jalen Ramsey, and those are the anchors. So
Speaker 1: if you have a dominant they have a new coach
Speaker 1: this year, and well, but if you have a defensive
Speaker 1: Player of the Year, guy on the front line. It
Speaker 1: just creates havoc and a guy like Jalen Ramsey will say,
Speaker 1: come here, d K mccalf, I'm gonna I'm gonna ruin
Speaker 1: you today. Those anchors, those are good anchors to have.
Speaker 1: But three points max and eight of the nine second
Speaker 1: halves thus far this year. I think it was only
Speaker 1: Buffalo we scored a touchdown on offense of the second
Speaker 1: half thus far this year. Jared Goff yesterday thirty seven
Speaker 1: for three oh two, no touchdowns, no picks. He was
Speaker 1: sacked three times. Uh, they were nine of fifty and
Speaker 1: the Rams were on third downs one of one on
Speaker 1: four they were plus two in turnovers. Again, if you
Speaker 1: had access to the box score, no better uh you
Speaker 1: know line item two, know than turnovers because you can
Speaker 1: figure out pretty much who won every game. Not every game,
Speaker 1: because there are exceptions and we note them here on
Speaker 1: the show. But turnovers are bigger than anything. Of course,
Speaker 1: you can't predict them moving forward. That's the problem. And
Speaker 1: then Tampa Bay, as we mentioned, Tampa Bay crushes the
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers yesterday forty six to twenty three. This was
Speaker 1: a seventeen seventeen game at the half, a twenty nine
Speaker 1: to six second half of the Bucks and Tom Brady
Speaker 1: tom thirty nine for three forty one three touchdowns, Doe
Speaker 1: Pacy we sacked once and as I mentioned earlier versus
Speaker 1: teams other than these Saints twenty one touchdowns and two
Speaker 1: picks this year. Yesterday hit eight different receivers, God Wins
Speaker 1: six for ninety two, Evans six or seventy seven and
Speaker 1: a touchdown, Antonio Brown seven of sixty nine, Gronk two
Speaker 1: for fifty one in a touchdown, on and on, and
Speaker 1: as I mentioned, Ronald Jones the second twenty three for
Speaker 1: one nine two a ninety eight yard touchdown scamper to
Speaker 1: the house. They were ten of sixty on third down,
Speaker 1: where the Bucks one of one on fourth and again,
Speaker 1: as I mentioned, probably the biggest yards difference in any
Speaker 1: game I remember this season, five forty four to one
Speaker 1: eighties seven versus the Panthers yesterday. So it's the six
Speaker 1: and three Rams the seven and three Bucks. I'll say
Speaker 1: the Bucks are favored. I'm gonna guess four and a half. Chris,
Speaker 1: You're way high. It's um three and a half. I
Speaker 1: see a couple of three and a half, the juice
Speaker 1: on the dog, I see a couple of threes juice
Speaker 1: on the favorite. In fact, it looks like the three
Speaker 1: and a halves or even disappearing as we speak. I
Speaker 1: made the game one this. I love this Rams defense.
Speaker 1: They are playing well, and Jared Goff, you know, I mean,
Speaker 1: he's not great, but he is pretty good. I think
Speaker 1: has gotten some mocks, maybe undeserved. But this defense of
Speaker 1: the Rams, I just think is, you know, I don't
Speaker 1: know if they're the best in the league. I don't know,
Speaker 1: but we mentioned they got two anchors in there that,
Speaker 1: you know, make them a very formidable opponent. I think
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open three and they're gonna I'm sure they'll
Speaker 1: probably lay it to me, but I think there's gonna
Speaker 1: be a really really tight game. And I think, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, totals seven forty seven and a half, let's
Speaker 1: see it a reasonable anymore. I think points will be
Speaker 1: at a premium. I think it's gonna be a really
Speaker 1: tight game. And I had at three and a half.
Speaker 1: I think I would definitely like to RAM. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna open three RAMS teaser like Rams teaser like, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think I saved my worst gifts for last. But yeah,
Speaker 1: I would, I would agree with that. And again, if
Speaker 1: the rams D can do right. If you know, there
Speaker 1: is a staff shot in my head that sees Aaron
Speaker 1: Donald wreaking havoc one year old Tim Brady, they got
Speaker 1: to make a move around and and the rams DAM
Speaker 1: might be able to They can move around for sure. Man,
Speaker 1: there's something that's the key, and it's been the key
Speaker 1: for him for years. If you can get him off
Speaker 1: his spot, he's less effective. You know, he's not my
Speaker 1: homes He's not even Roethlisberger if you get him off
Speaker 1: the spot. But they've protected him well his whole career
Speaker 1: in New England. When he's protected here at Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: has had some really good games. Will they be able
Speaker 1: to protect him against Aaron Donald. I'm not so sure.
Speaker 1: I think I like the rams a little bit in
Speaker 1: this spot. There's some good games man, Rams Bucks six
Speaker 1: and three verses seven to three on Monday night. Um,
Speaker 1: I don't really hold the Raiders in that same but
Speaker 1: at least on paper eight and one verses six and
Speaker 1: three on Sunday night, Kansas City at the Raiders Green
Speaker 1: Bay at Indianapolis is a good game as well. And
Speaker 1: he read off of buy is a thing, right. That's
Speaker 1: Andy read and he read off of buy is a
Speaker 1: thing right right. Tennessee at Baltimore is a is a
Speaker 1: good looking game on paper as well. And then that
Speaker 1: Thursday about Thursday, Yeah, that started at all Arizona at Seattle?
Speaker 1: Who along with the Rams or six and three? So
Speaker 1: when we look up and down, Chris, I'll give you
Speaker 1: honors here. What do you like the best? If you
Speaker 1: put on your betting head, Miami, that would be my
Speaker 1: top pick. I like Miami, I said, I love the coach,
Speaker 1: love the quarterback from Miami, the exact offosite for Denver,
Speaker 1: and don't like the coach a quarterback. I'm not ready
Speaker 1: to quite sell out on them yet, but I think
Speaker 1: everybody in Denver is you know, um, But I like Miami.
Speaker 1: That would be my best bet of the week for me.
Speaker 1: I think it's uh. I also like Miami. I think
Speaker 1: it's New England. Again. That was the line that was
Speaker 1: the most perplexing, although you said right afterwards it's sort
Speaker 1: of moved in our direction. What what the market's fascination
Speaker 1: is with the Houston Texans I will never understand. I
Speaker 1: guess two and a half. Chrissie said Houston was even
Speaker 1: favored in some spots, and I would say, pick them,
Speaker 1: so it's moving our way. And then the other definitely
Speaker 1: gone on one are gone New England minus one. Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: it's coming coming our way. Um yeah, that made no sense.
Speaker 1: And uh, it feels good when you make a guess
Speaker 1: and you're like what and then it comes your way
Speaker 1: before the end of the show. And then the other
Speaker 1: one was Tennessee. I know you were saying a lot
Speaker 1: of people will take Baltimore here, but if you're giving me,
Speaker 1: you said north of six points on Tennessee against Baltimore,
Speaker 1: I'll take all those points. It's mostly six and a half,
Speaker 1: mostly six and in all right, So so I'm anself.
Speaker 1: So those are the three I like the best. New England,
Speaker 1: Miami and Tennessee at a glance. Um, but that's the
Speaker 1: point of the exercise. The point of the exercise, like
Speaker 1: the old Stardust radio show, is too within this uh conversation,
Speaker 1: try to extract value on the lines. And usually the
Speaker 1: first instinct is the best, and the rest of the
Speaker 1: week we spend just talking, talking ourselves out of it,
Speaker 1: and maybe sometimes we're dumb to do that. So in
Speaker 1: the end, then we only have about a minute left.
Speaker 1: But with your four survivor and I know you have
Speaker 1: partners to uh to consult with. UM. This is tough
Speaker 1: this week because we mentioned the Chargers will be a possibility,
Speaker 1: Chargers hosting the Jets. That's the second biggest line of
Speaker 1: the week. Do you trust Anthony Lynn and the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's the biggest line at Jacksonville. So if you still
Speaker 1: have Pittsburgh, that's going to be a team that people use,
Speaker 1: even though Jacksonville shows up for these games. New Orleans
Speaker 1: is tough because you don't know about Drew Brees right now,
Speaker 1: Kansas City on the road, if you still have them
Speaker 1: at the Raiders, I don't know. This is a tough
Speaker 1: We've tried to go with home teams as much as possible.
Speaker 1: I can tell you that, you know, even though even
Speaker 1: even though hopefill has proven Yah, I got a bunch
Speaker 1: of partners. Yeah, this is the hardest week this week,
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving next week. It's the gone three really tough tough weeks,
Speaker 1: including Thanksgiving as its own weekend circle uh UM and
Speaker 1: this will cut the finally, you know, it's three oh
Speaker 1: one and only one from three ten to three on one.
Speaker 1: That's like three or four straight weeks now where it's
Speaker 1: barely dwindled. Now the having begins each and every one
Speaker 1: of these. Chrissy, can't thank you enough. Appreciate it. Man,
Speaker 1: My pleasure, my friend, and my pleasure. All right, we
Speaker 1: look for we look forward to the book. Do you
Speaker 1: have an estimated date on this? Are you just saying
Speaker 1: some day something? No, I mean, I'm not going to
Speaker 1: finish till we do the super Bowl. It's gonna hear that.
Speaker 1: Like I said, that was the book. Okay, I'm super Bowl,
Speaker 1: the super Bowl. So you know, it's just a journal
Speaker 1: of everything that's happened, which is quite a bit in
Speaker 1: this last year. Jason, by the way, then one year
Speaker 1: I'm gonna think about that. Yes, could you imagine Jason
Speaker 1: having that kind of impact? I like it. Then what
Speaker 1: then one year? Thank you, Chrissy, good luck to all,
Speaker 1: good luck with the Bears and the Vikings. Tonight from
Speaker 1: all of us at BC Sports to day now back
Speaker 1: back BA