WEBVTT - Beating The Book: Guessing Lines Week 11 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:12.720 Check it on Man down Man, Good Monday morning to do. 0:00:12.800 --> 0:00:14.319 It is a number of game right here at the 0:00:14.400 --> 0:00:17.439 four Spetting Network, serious XEP channel tool for Visa dot Com, 0:00:17.440 --> 0:00:20.639 the Visa f Boobo sling at Game Plus. It is 0:00:20.640 --> 0:00:23.919 Gil Alexander. Jason con is here as well. Good morning 0:00:23.960 --> 0:00:25.440 to you, Jason. How are you? How are you? By 0:00:25.440 --> 0:00:27.800 the way, good? Thanks, go happy Monday. I couldn't go, Howard, 0:00:27.840 --> 0:00:29.760 I couldn't decide between how are you and how you doing? 0:00:29.760 --> 0:00:31.360 And that's what came out of my It's good on 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:34.720 all accounts. Uh. This is Guessing Lines week eleven in 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:37.280 the NFL. That's what we're here for this morning. Of course, 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:42.120 we'll briefly touch on Dustin Johnson's amazing coronation at the 0:00:42.159 --> 0:00:47.000 Masters today. Coronation the entire weekend was that for a 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:49.839 Hall of fame golfer who got it done with the 0:00:49.880 --> 0:00:52.960 green jacket. This weekend we'll talk about that, uh when 0:00:53.000 --> 0:00:55.760 it comes up sort of organically. Congratulations to everybody who 0:00:55.760 --> 0:01:00.319 had DJ with their bets. A record twenty under par 0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:04.679 at Augusta, never been done before his second major of 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:07.200 his career. Uh, and of course the NFL will if 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:08.920 you're just landing on this show for the first time, 0:01:09.319 --> 0:01:11.440 we talk about the upcoming week lines. I've been in 0:01:11.480 --> 0:01:13.240 a cocoon. This is a tribute to the old start 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:15.080 US radio show of the same name. I've been in 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:16.920 a cocoon since last night. I don't know the lines. 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:20.559 I guess them. Chrissie Andrews from the South Point Sports Book, 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:23.080 the director of that sports book right here behind us, 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:25.240 the tip of the strip. Uh, he tells us what 0:01:25.760 --> 0:01:28.920 he's going to post after the show. Right after the show, 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:32.959 and within that exercise, we got ourselves some value. And uh. 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:34.600 Last week, what was the line that I thought was 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:37.880 the most ridiculous was Cleveland And yeah, that should have covered. 0:01:38.440 --> 0:01:41.280 We'll talk about that. We'll talk about that in the 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:44.360 Arizona endings, because I think that is those are obviously 0:01:44.400 --> 0:01:46.640 the two headlines from a Benny standpoint. Let's bring him 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:49.559 in my mish book of Chris Andrews. Good morning, Chris. 0:01:49.600 --> 0:01:53.160 What's going on? I I got questions for you. One. 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:56.280 Let's just let's start it out. First of all, congratulations, 0:01:56.280 --> 0:01:59.240 you have you have four survivor pools that are still 0:01:59.280 --> 0:02:02.680 four survivor entries. You and your partners are still available. 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:05.760 You and your partner partners plural. Oh, I got a 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:08.160 bunch of partners. We put in a bunch of stuff 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:11.880 all over the place. So it's like, I gotta win 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:14.359 one of these to break even. So yeah, I've got 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:17.120 a lot of money. But you are in the circle 0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:21.799 one right with four entries left. Yeah, yeah, that'll if 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:25.239 we win that one, that'll pay a few bills. So 0:02:24.760 --> 0:02:27.600 you know, so we went from three ten to three 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:32.079 oh one another. Yeah, the gaunten. The gauntlet begins now. 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:33.760 But how did you play it this weekend? Did you 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:39.720 have all four on one team? No, we had three gutten. 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:44.160 We had three with Green Bay. It's made a sweat. 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:48.120 Yeah and uh and then we had one with the Saints. 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:51.280 Okay they both did they all got through? Um? Yeah. 0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:54.680 Now here's my question of a bookmaking standpoint that game 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:57.280 last night is we're watching Baltimore, New England, and New 0:02:57.280 --> 0:03:00.200 England ends up winning it out right. I don't know how, 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:02.680 you know, It's like, it's amazing how it always works 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:04.440 out for books in the end, That's what it seems like. 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.280 But a Sunday night game, you probably weren't having the 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:10.080 best week, I would imagine, and then that happens. How 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:14.120 big of a decision was that for you? Boy? It 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:18.120 was big? Yeah, it was big winning that game we 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:21.280 wound up not I mean we went to the day 0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:24.400 and not you know, not like a great number, but 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:28.480 like an okay number. If we lost that game, it 0:03:28.520 --> 0:03:32.200 would have been really bad. So but we went into 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:34.200 it and then we need a miracle here because I 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:35.920 didn't know New England it beat him, you know, I 0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:40.040 really didn't. Um, But we got it, you know, and 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:42.560 it was nice. It kind of salvage the salvage the 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:45.800 weekend because Saturday was not very good at all. Yeah, 0:03:45.840 --> 0:03:48.560 and we weren't looking very good going into Sunday night. 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:50.520 But that that was a big win for us. Great 0:03:50.560 --> 0:03:54.840 game plan by Belichick, weather helps um was. But you know, 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:56.240 you could have said that if the Ravens were up, 0:03:56.240 --> 0:03:58.880 the weather would help them too, probably. So just a 0:03:59.200 --> 0:04:01.280 great game plan from start to finish for the Patriots. 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:04.680 Patriots when at twenty three to seventeen as outright seven 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:07.440 point dogs, they went it out right, that is uh 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:10.600 and that's huge. Four books. Let's start with Thursday, because 0:04:10.600 --> 0:04:12.760 there's so much to get into from yesterday as we're 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:14.720 doing this. By the way, for week eleven. For those 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:16.440 who are just here for the first time, we of 0:04:16.480 --> 0:04:19.040 course go back through all the Shenanigans betting in Otherwise, 0:04:19.080 --> 0:04:24.240 in week ten, what is Thursday Night? Good game? Cardinals 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:27.760 at the Seahawks. Oh, that is a good game. Cardinals 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:31.200 six and three. Seahawks six and three. Rams are also 0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:34.400 six and three in the NFC West. Niners not so much. 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:40.359 Not their fault. Huge Thursday game. Uh. Arizona wins yesterday 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:42.719 on the Hail Mary. I guess people are calling it 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:46.640 to Hail Murray, Hail Mary, Hail Mary from Kyler Murray 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:51.280 to DeAndre Hopkins forty three yards with two seconds left 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:54.680 on the clock, and that beats the Bills yesterday and 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:58.440 dramatic fashion. After the Bills had scored with just over 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:01.000 thirty seconds love, I believe, with thirty four seconds left, 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:04.400 Stephen dig scored and Stefon Diggs was on the sideline 0:05:04.400 --> 0:05:06.719 doing a whole bunch of me me, look at me. 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:10.120 Uh that's my translation of what I saw thirty two 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:13.159 thirty though the Cardinals hook it up on the on 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:15.680 the Murray to Hopkins play. By the way, Bill O'Brien 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:17.640 had no need for DeAndre Hopkins, just want to point 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:21.720 that out. So if you had the Bills plus two 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:24.680 and a half, uh, you end up By the way, 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:26.480 it's Gill Alexander and Chris Andrews right here in the 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:28.920 numbers game at Visa the Sports Betting Network Serious Except 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:30.640 Channel to A four, Visa dot Com, the Visa that 0:05:30.800 --> 0:05:33.400 Food bos link a game plus guessing lines for week eleven. 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:35.720 Looking back at week ten, Uh, if you had the 0:05:35.760 --> 0:05:38.400 Bills plus two and a half, you end up winning. 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:40.080 If you have the Cardinals minus two and a half, 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:42.680 you end up losing. The two is a push and 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:45.560 the reason for the push here is that when the 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:47.760 touchdown was scored with just two ticks of the clock 0:05:47.839 --> 0:05:50.040 left and the Cardinals go up thirty two to thirty, 0:05:50.400 --> 0:05:53.960 Cliff Kingsbury and staff decided, Uh, we're not going to 0:05:54.080 --> 0:05:56.760 kick an extra point. We are going to line up 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.480 in a two point conversion formation and we're just gonna 0:05:59.480 --> 0:06:02.960 take a knee. And that is a genius move. I 0:06:03.080 --> 0:06:05.440 know that it hurts some gamblers and it and it 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.560 harm and it and it helped others. But the only 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:10.880 way with two seconds left on the clock that you 0:06:10.920 --> 0:06:13.560 can get beat in that situation, or you can get 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:15.960 and you can get beat is if they block the kick, 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:18.400 return it for two points and then beat you in overtime. 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:23.240 So just take the knee. I totally get that move. Now. 0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:26.080 There wasn't notion in my head that Kingsbury just looked 0:06:26.120 --> 0:06:27.480 into and I was like, does he think this is 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:29.279 a time down? Like there's a little of that in 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:31.240 my head. But I'm gonna give him a benefit of 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:32.960 the doubt. I think he knew what he was doing, 0:06:33.000 --> 0:06:36.560 So that one I endorse. We'll get to the Cleveland 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:38.880 Brown ones later because I have Cleveland Brown's one later 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:41.320 because I have a different opinion on that. But Kyler 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:43.479 Murray twenty two of thirty two for two forty five, 0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:46.560 one touchdown, one pick, sack three times, eleven carries for 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:50.200 sixty one yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Uh, 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:53.039 he's in the m v P conversation everybody. He's gotta 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:55.960 be first quarterback with a touchdown in five straight games 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:59.880 since nineteen fifty six. Hopkins ends up seven for a touchdown, 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:03.520 rake four hundred fifty three total yards for the Cardinals 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:06.160 and victory. And then there's Seattle, And I don't think 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:09.800 Russell Wilson is really in the m v p conversation anymore. Uh, 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:12.280 the The Seahawks have lost three of four s and 0:07:12.360 --> 0:07:14.680 starting five and oh Wilson was twenty three thirty eight 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:17.520 for two forty nine but no touchdowns, two picks. He 0:07:17.600 --> 0:07:19.800 was sacked six times. He was eight for sixty on 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:23.440 the ground. The Seahawks have ten turnovers in their last 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:27.560 four games, including three yesterday. The third was a fumble 0:07:27.600 --> 0:07:30.920 lost by Wilson. They were minus two in turnovers in 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:34.520 their loss yesterday to the Rams to sixteen. It was 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:36.280 a bad spot for the Seahawks, though the Rams had 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:39.160 a couple of weeks. If Sean McVeigh couldn't have schemed 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:42.800 two weeks to beat that defense, I'm not sure if 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:44.960 we could call him a genius anymore. That was my 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:47.800 buddy Matt Brown's comment. I agree with that, but in 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:51.400 the end, for me, Russell Wilson another really bad pick yesterday, 0:07:51.480 --> 0:07:53.200 that one at the end of the second quarter when 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:55.360 they were down seven and he could have run for 0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:57.040 the first down, he threw it in the end zone. 0:07:57.040 --> 0:08:00.800 It was picked just really uncharacteristic plays. But it's Arizona 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:05.240 at Seattle on a short weekend. So getting finally to 0:08:05.280 --> 0:08:07.720 the guests, I think it's Seattle not quite a field goal. 0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:13.800 I'd say Seattle minus two and a half. Gilly, what's 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:19.360 our t shirts gonna come out? Your number better? Uh? 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:22.640 It's it's three with juice on the favorite. And I 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:25.160 even see one three and ALP with juice on the dog. 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:32.440 My numbers come to pick them. However, and this is 0:08:32.480 --> 0:08:35.240 purely anecdote. I wish I shouldn't been keeping track of 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:39.040 this for years. In a shortened weekend like this, I do. 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:42.760 I prefer a veteran team. I think home field might 0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:44.560 mean a little something. And I'm gonna give you to 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:47.080 that in a second. Uh, you know, I like a 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:49.600 veteran team, a veteran quarterback, you know. And I was 0:08:49.960 --> 0:08:52.040 I'm going to be the first to admit I was 0:08:52.200 --> 0:08:56.480 very late to the Murray party. He's really good and 0:08:56.559 --> 0:08:59.240 I had my serious doubts about him, but this kid's good. 0:08:59.840 --> 0:09:03.240 I however, like I said, he's still you know, young quarterback. 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:05.480 I still don't like their coach. I don't know if 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:09.199 you looked into that, uh non extra point or not, 0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:11.640 but that that was another thing that really helped the books. 0:09:11.679 --> 0:09:15.319 By the way, but you know, Russell Wilson not playing 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:17.680 very good ball. So I have these two teams equal, 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:21.640 I would not go to three, which is really what 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:23.800 it is, is three and juice. I'm gonna open three 0:09:23.800 --> 0:09:25.840 flat and they're gonna probably bet me. See I mean, 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:29.559 I'm sure they'll bet me settle, uh, which I'm certainly 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:32.400 okay with. But like I said, even though I made 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:34.640 power rating wise make the game pick on, I give 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:37.080 Seattle a little bit of a nod because of you know, 0:09:37.280 --> 0:09:40.400 the coach and the quarterback. And when it comes to 0:09:40.559 --> 0:09:44.400 Russell Wilson, Uh, they're really asking a lot of him. 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:48.000 And yesterday what was that Jalen Ramsey was a cornerback 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:51.160 really shut down DK met gap and I think when 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:53.120 you get in that situation now, not too many guys 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:55.000 are gonna be able to do that, by the way, 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:58.640 but they're really asking Wilson to do an awful lot. 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:02.280 And uh, it came back to haunt him yesterday, and 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:03.880 it's maybe come back to haunt him a couple of 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:06.440 times in the last couple of weeks because Wilson has 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:08.480 not looked at good. You know, for years, I've been 0:10:08.520 --> 0:10:11.680 saying I hate rooting against this guy, but yesterday, you know, 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.839 we kind of needed to beat him and we did. Um, 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:17.400 you know, but he's not playing real well right now. 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:20.000 I got his qbready from yesterday thirty one point one. 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:22.360 That's one of the lowest I remember how to him 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:24.080 because you know, I love the guy. I talked about 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:27.520 him altiple time. He's terrific. But uh, you know, I'm 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:30.199 gonna open three. I think they'll lay it to me. 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:32.560 Like I said, I'm fine with that, but I do 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:34.439 kind of like your number better. To be honest with you, 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:37.520 but you got helped by that nal down and I'm 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:39.840 sure you got healthy by the other one that's coming 0:10:39.920 --> 0:10:42.160 up in in the Cleveland game? What is it? What 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:49.160 is next Sunday? Speaking of Cleveland, Billy yeat Cleveland. By 0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:51.360 the way, how great was the five early game six 0:10:51.440 --> 0:10:56.280 late games thing yesterday? Great? H so good? What is 0:10:56.280 --> 0:11:00.000 it this coming week? Are we reverting back to the normal? Yeah? Seven, 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:05.160 seven and four. We're getting there. We're getting there. That 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:09.040 was a great, a great weekend where college football cooperated 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:11.559 in terms of not being a really sexy schedule, having 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:15.840 fifteen postponements or cancelation, and then Dustin Johnson having the 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:18.280 decency to run away with the masters. So there wasn't 0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:21.280 much to watch. They either in the NFL accommodating it 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:23.400 with five early games and five that weren't of the 0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:25.600 sexiest matchups. Right, all the all the good ones were 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:28.480 in the afternoon. Just from a fan standpoint, what was 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:33.640 the game with Cleveland again? Who was it? Cleveland? Oh? Boy? Philly? 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:37.200 The NFC East leading Philadelphia Eagles now at three five 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:40.840 and one, they lose to the Giants. A lot of 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:42.800 money came in on the Eagles. Eagles ended up as 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:45.120 a four and a half point closing favorite. They lose 0:11:45.280 --> 0:11:49.280 twenty seven to seventeen, broken eight game winning streak against 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:51.800 the Giants. They Giants hadn't beaten them to twenty six. 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:56.680 Carson Wentz thirty seven, two oh eight, no touchdowns, no picks, 0:11:56.679 --> 0:11:59.520 and there's the sacks, three sacks man as he gets 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:03.199 sacked all out this year oh for nine on third down? 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:06.040 The Eagles were oh for nine on third down at 0:12:06.120 --> 0:12:09.080 zero for nine, one for three on four. First game 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:12.040 for the Eagles franchise since two thousand four without a 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:15.720 third down conversion. Think about that, sixteen years they've gone 0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:18.560 without getting a third down conversion. They had eleven penalties 0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:21.040 for seventy four yards and then in one of these 0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:24.520 I mean, this is really the theme of yesterday Analytics 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:29.000 gone bad. Whence and the Eagles go for two down 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:32.000 twenty one to seventeen in the third quarter. But could 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:35.920 we please can we please stop with this someone? I mean, 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:39.320 you know, it's it's so funny how we can anything 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:42.520 can be justified. But in that moment, you know, because 0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:44.840 you can, you can take it to you know, chess 0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:47.440 place plays forward and be like, well yeah, but if 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:48.920 then if they end up with the field goal and 0:12:48.960 --> 0:12:51.520 blah blah blah, you'll still be you know, no, no, no, no, no, 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:54.400 just cut it to three. What are we doing here? 0:12:55.360 --> 0:12:58.040 It's a third quarter, for God's sakes. So they don't 0:12:58.080 --> 0:12:59.880 get it, by the way, not that it would have 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.560 mattered perhaps in the end, but it's just you know, 0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:05.720 they went for two earlier. Okay, that cut it to uh, 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:08.200 you know, to a three point game, but then on 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.080 this one, you're not gonna go for a one to 0:13:11.120 --> 0:13:12.720 cut it to a three point game. I I don't 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:16.600 understand anymore. Um So Philly loses, but they still lead 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:18.680 the NFC East at three five and one, again a 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:21.199 division that I say to folks, why would you want 0:13:21.200 --> 0:13:24.240 to win this and have a draft pick at least 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:28.319 nine or ten picks worse than you would if you don't. UM. 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:32.360 Then there's the Browns. The Browns beat the Texans. Uh 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:34.520 and they and they beat them by the final score 0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:38.800 of ten to seven. And uh Baker Mayfield was twelve 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:42.400 twenty one thirty two, no touchdowns, no picks, sacked on 0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:45.160 two yards passing. They got it done on the ground, 0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:47.520 as they should have in that weather. Uh. Nick Chubb 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:51.280 nineteen for one and a touchdown Kareem Hunt nineteen for 0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:54.040 one oh four. But obviously the headline of this game 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:57.959 is it's ten to seven and Chub on a scamper 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:02.760 from the brown zoned forty hard line full sprint. Instead 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:05.800 of going the full sixty, he goes fifty nine and 0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:08.520 makes a hard left out of bounds at the one 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:13.119 in the clear with under a minute left. So Cleveland 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:16.960 minus three ends up pushing Cleveland minus three and a 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:19.320 half is a loss. Houston plus three and a half 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:23.040 is a win. They kneeled twice after that to preserve 0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:26.760 the ten to seven win. Now, unlike the Kingsbury play, 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:29.760 let me just say this, this is like the Todd 0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:32.360 Gurley thing against the Packers a few years back or 0:14:32.400 --> 0:14:34.040 a couple of years ago, I don't even remember now, 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:36.520 a couple of years ago, where in the case of 0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:39.280 Girley with the Packers, if Gurley goes into the end 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:41.160 zone and they kick the extra point, it's still a 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.600 nine point lead. I think with less than two minutes 0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:46.120 or less than it was. It was definitely less than 0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:49.680 two minutes against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Okay, it's 0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:51.960 Aaron Rodgers. There might be a little time on the 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:54.880 clock where he could do something. Maybe you could make 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:56.840 the case or that. Even though it's two scores, I 0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:59.880 still have my doubts this one yesterday. You are essentially 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:04.520 turning a nine nine point nine percent win probability into 0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:08.440 a hundred percent. I get it, it's a percent. Okay, 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:11.920 I'm not gonna go nuts, But what are we doing? Really? 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:14.760 What are these games? Are tough enough to beat betting normally, 0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:17.120 and he goes out of bounds like that, and you're 0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:21.320 just like, okay, wow, So this makes NFL. This makes 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:24.120 betting on the NFL even harder now that guys have 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:26.320 these ideas in their head, Like, Okay, everybody's telling me 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:27.600 I should go out of hounds. By the way, that's 0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:31.440 what Chuck claimed. Here's here's Dave Purdham in at ESPN 0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:35.960 dot com. He said that at William Hill of the 0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:38.400 money bet on the point spread was on Cleveland, accorded 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.400 data reported by the bookmaker an hour before kickoff. Jeff 0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:44.600 Stone back over at bet MGM and Nevada Texans covering 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:47.040 the spread produced amid six figure swing in favor of 0:15:47.080 --> 0:15:49.680 the House and a collective moan from the crowded betters 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:53.600 at the Mirage uh Draft Kings reported taking significantly more 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.880 money on the Browns and the Texans. Action on Cleveland 0:15:56.880 --> 0:15:59.400 resulted in what Draft King sports book director Johnny Vello 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:03.520 characterized as quote a pretty sizeable swing unquote Johnny's never 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:07.400 committed all that stuff. ESPNS win probability metric showed Cleveland 0:16:07.440 --> 0:16:10.040 had a greater than ninety nine percent chance of winning 0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:16.440 whether Chubb scored or not at that point, and Cleveland 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:18.560 coach Kevin Stefanski said he wouldn't have gotten mad at 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:20.640 Chub had he scored, but that he had gave Chubb 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:24.800 the team's code phrase no Moss, instructing him to go 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:27.320 down after a first doubt and not score by the way. 0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:33.000 No moss, of course, made famous by Roberto Duran Heads 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:38.240 Hands of Stone Manostpira in his UH rematch with Ray 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:43.000 Leonard when Ray Leonard mugged him, Bolo punched him eighth 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:46.080 round t k O in their rematch. Sorry, m Ray 0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:50.560 Leonard fan, I was getting excited. Yes, that's I got 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:56.040 carried away. Sorry, I'm sorry, pardon me. So so what 0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:59.120 was the game anyway? So let's get back Philadelphia Cleveland. 0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:01.560 Let's say super It gets worth noting that that game 0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:04.399 went down, was was bent down from fifty four to 0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:07.560 forty five point five and still went way under, still 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:10.119 went away on to Cleveland windy games just two weeks 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:12.200 in a row and didn't and didn't compare at all 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:15.080 to the weather the in the in New England last night, 0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:19.760 which was a monsoon. I'll say Cleveland minus three. But Man, 0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:23.040 these decisions that that some teams are making at the 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:26.880 ends of games, chrissie, they seem, how can I put this, 0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:31.560 almost like they're trying to they're trying to be smarter, 0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:33.840 that they're trying to do what they think is smart, 0:17:34.240 --> 0:17:38.280 not actually knowing what they're doing. Uh, you know, I'm 0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:41.639 like you're reading too many books. You know, I'm a 0:17:41.680 --> 0:17:43.960 big reader. But you know, let's draw the line at 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:46.480 some point. You know, not everything of the conspiracy on 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:50.440 everything you do is analytically correct. And I would say 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:53.800 that about silly. Uh. Once again, Gilly, here we go 0:17:53.920 --> 0:17:57.200 with the same same. I like your number better. Um 0:17:57.400 --> 0:18:00.879 My power rings come to two. I'm really I'm not 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:04.200 enamored with Cleveland, and a lot of it is Baker Mayfield. 0:18:04.200 --> 0:18:07.760 I hate to say, uh, but I see three and 0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:11.320 a half juice on the dog, three juice on the favorite. 0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:13.600 You know, either way you go here, that's the way 0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:15.919 they're gonna bet you. I'm gonna open three and definitely 0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:18.680 take a bet. Um. You know not that I really 0:18:18.720 --> 0:18:21.399 like Philly perfect. I have a number here that I 0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:25.800 want to quote from Paul heimbi Kinti's and he goes 0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:29.639 on Twitter, Paul Hembo h g m bo. Paul Hembo 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:32.800 on Twitter. He's a producer at ESPN, and he and 0:18:32.840 --> 0:18:38.360 I have exchanged a couple of direct messages on Twitter. Anyway, 0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:44.080 Carson Wentz has six games with a q b R 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:49.800 under fifty, leads the NFL. I mean, we've got to 0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:52.199 stop making excuses for this guy. And I know we're 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:55.680 talking about injuries and all that other stuff. Baker Mayfield 0:18:55.720 --> 0:18:58.760 has four, you know, so you know, but Wentz is 0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:00.480 clearly the favorite. There's Cup one of the guys. We 0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:01.959 might get to a couple of them later on. I 0:19:01.960 --> 0:19:03.240 want to go to go hold this right now, but 0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:06.800 go to go to excuse me. Paul him Bi Keatons 0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:10.120 Paul Himbow on Twitter. It's a great fall, a lot 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:12.439 of a lot of great little staffs. A little tidbit 0:19:12.520 --> 0:19:15.080 so you might not stick up one. But like I said, 0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:17.960 I'm not crazy but stilly either. My numbers come to two, 0:19:18.440 --> 0:19:20.679 I'm gonna open three and I'll probably lay it to me. 0:19:20.720 --> 0:19:22.280 But it's one of those. If I open three and 0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:24.080 a half, they take it. If I open three, they're 0:19:24.080 --> 0:19:26.480 gonna lay it. I'm gonna open three, definitely take the 0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:28.600 bed because they just think it's gonna be a tight game. 0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:31.800 I'm not crazy about the way Cleveland's playing either myself. 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:34.880 So yeah, for sure. And by the way, Eagles one 0:19:34.920 --> 0:19:37.680 and a half game lead still in the NFC ET 0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:40.080 so they can still absorb, you know, some of this, 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:43.600 And and there was that prop over there at was 0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:46.439 it was the DraftKings that that they had the NFC 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:48.200 East winner. They had this up early in the season. 0:19:48.200 --> 0:19:50.040 I'm not sure if it's still it. There seven and 0:19:50.040 --> 0:19:52.760 a half wins for the NFC East winner and the 0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:56.600 under was was plus money, and the plus money came down. 0:19:57.440 --> 0:20:01.000 But man, right now, to think team could get to 0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:04.359 eight wins like Philly would have to go five and 0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:07.120 to the rest of the way, that ain't happening. There's 0:20:07.119 --> 0:20:11.600 no way the Giants have to go Giants have to 0:20:11.640 --> 0:20:16.639 go six and one? Is that right now? They're playing 0:20:16.640 --> 0:20:18.600 some good football. They ain't going six and one. I 0:20:18.600 --> 0:20:20.480 got news for you. No, Yeah, Giants would have to 0:20:20.480 --> 0:20:22.119 go six and one. Yeah, they'd have to go to 0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:25.359 go eight and eight. They'd have to go six and one. Um, 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:28.520 and then uh, and then you take a team like 0:20:28.560 --> 0:20:30.920 what is it, so they're the Giants are three and seven? No, 0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:33.080 pardon me, they'd have to go five and one. Pardon me. 0:20:33.359 --> 0:20:35.879 Giants would have to go five and one. Giants have 0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:38.240