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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager.

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Speaker 1: And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.

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Speaker 3: Karin, we are hours away now from the most anticipated

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Speaker 3: FED decision in years. After holding borrowing costs at a

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Speaker 3: two decade high for more than a year, the Fed

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Speaker 3: is widely expected to cut rates at least a quarter point. Today,

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Speaker 3: we get a preview from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.

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Speaker 4: A FED rate cut would be the first since twenty twenty,

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Speaker 4: when the Central Bank took rates to zero during COVID.

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Speaker 4: The pandemic snarled supply lines and the government provided extra

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Speaker 4: cash to consumers. The combination touched off the highest inflation

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Speaker 4: since the nineteen eighties, and the FED took rates back

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Speaker 4: up again to their current range of five and a

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Speaker 4: quarter to five and a half percent. Hand Lists are

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Speaker 4: divided over whether we'll see a half point or a

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Speaker 4: quarter point cut today. That will depend on whether policymakers

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Speaker 4: see the risks tilted more towards an economic slowdown or

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Speaker 4: to reaccelerating inflation. One thing that is certain, more rate

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Speaker 4: cuts are to come. The Fed will suggest how many

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Speaker 4: with a new dot plot today as well Michael McKee

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: All right, Mike, thank you. So will it be twenty

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Speaker 1: five or fifty? We asked Laura Raim, chief US economist

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Speaker 1: at FS Investments, Robert Teeter, chief investment strategist at Silvercrest

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Speaker 1: Asset Management, and Michael Darta, chief economist at Roth Capital Partners.

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Speaker 5: I am in the twenty five basis point camp, but

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Speaker 5: I cannot recall a FED meeting where things have been

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Speaker 5: so up in the air and it is a really

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Speaker 5: close call. There are great reasons for them to do

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Speaker 5: a larger cut. I also can't remember a FED meeting

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Speaker 5: where markets have been so split going into the decision.

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Speaker 5: Half the market's going to be surprised either way.

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Speaker 6: I don't think there's a whole lot of difference between

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Speaker 6: twenty five and fifty basis points.

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Speaker 7: Here.

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Speaker 6: We're sort of tracking to know maybe sixty percent odds

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Speaker 6: of a fifty basis point cut, But it's all in

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Speaker 6: the communication as to why they're making that cut. So

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Speaker 6: is it tilted more at We've made a lot of

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Speaker 6: progress on inflation. I think that's a hard story to

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Speaker 6: tell me. You've had three months in a row of

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Speaker 6: two point six percent or so on their preferred metric

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Speaker 6: of PC eight.

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Speaker 8: Markets are thinking that maybe the FED is sending a

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Speaker 8: signal here or at least much more open to starting

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Speaker 8: with fifty rather than twenty five. And if the view

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Speaker 8: of the committee is that they're substantially above neutral, we

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Speaker 8: can debate neutral. But the highest estimates of neutral are

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Speaker 8: about one hundred bases points below where the FED is,

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Speaker 8: and you have markets pricing in a seventy one percent

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Speaker 8: probability of fifty starting with twenty five. I think Carrie's

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Speaker 8: significant risks for the FED, and that.

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Speaker 1: Was Rock Capital Partner chief economist Michael Darta, silvercrisht Asset Managements,

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Speaker 1: Robert Teeter, and Laura Ray at FS Investments. Right now,

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Speaker 1: markets are pricing and a cut closer to fifty than

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Speaker 1: twenty five basis points Karen.

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Speaker 3: A couple of Wall Street Titans are weighing in as well.

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Speaker 3: Here's JP Morgan, Chase CEO, Jamie Diamond and Bridgewater Associates

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Speaker 3: founder Ray DALLYO.

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Speaker 2: I mean they're gonna do it.

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Speaker 9: You know, A twenty five or fifty basis poicte not

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Speaker 9: gonna be earth shattering doesn't mean that much.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think they need to do it.

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Speaker 7: You know, I think j Pellow does do a.

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Speaker 1: Great job, but it's a minor thing.

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Speaker 10: What does that that have to do? FED has to

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Speaker 10: keep interest rates high enough to satisfy the creditors that

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Speaker 10: they're going to get a real return without having them

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Speaker 10: so high that the debtors have the problem. So, now,

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Speaker 10: if we're looking at this, whether it's twenty five or

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Speaker 10: fifty basis points, twenty five basis points would be the

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Speaker 10: right thing to do if you look at the whole

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Speaker 10: picture as a whole.

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Speaker 3: And that was Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dallyo and JP

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Speaker 3: Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond for full FED coverage. Stick

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Speaker 3: with Bloomberg for a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. The

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Speaker 3: FED decides it's at one thirty this afternoon, Wall Street

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Speaker 3: Time on Bloomberg Radio and television.

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Speaker 1: Now, Nathan, let's get the latest on the presidential race.

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Speaker 1: Both former President Trump and Vice President and Harris are

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Speaker 1: back out on the campaign trail after the assassination attempt

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Speaker 1: last weekend. Trump is holding a rally on Long Island

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Speaker 1: in New York today. Ahead of it, he's promising to

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Speaker 1: bring back a tax break that he reigned in as

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Speaker 1: president the state and local tax deduction. They got reaction

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Speaker 1: from Republican Senator Bell Haggerty, who sits on the Senate

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Speaker 1: Banking Committee.

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Speaker 11: I haven't had an opportunity to discuss this directly with

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Speaker 11: President Trump, but I think this was happening in the

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Speaker 11: context of a huge rally that will be underway there

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Speaker 11: in New York. I know it's going to be very popular.

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Speaker 7: In New York.

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Speaker 11: Tax cuts in general in this environment, given the inflation

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Speaker 11: that we've all experienced, are very appealing to the American public.

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Speaker 1: Senator Haggerty was a guest on Balance of Power on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberry TV and Radio, and Trump's twenty seventeen tax law

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Speaker 1: limited the popular deduction and high tax states to ten

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says

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Speaker 1: repealing the salt cap would cost one point two trillion

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Speaker 1: dollars over ten years.

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Speaker 3: Well Karen Vice President Kamala Harris is proposing a cap

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Speaker 3: of her own on the cost of childcare. She says

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Speaker 3: no working family should pay more than seven percent of

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Speaker 3: their income on raising a child. Harris made the comment

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Speaker 3: at an event with the National Association of Black Journalists

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Speaker 3: where She also talked about the attempt on Donald Trump's life.

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Speaker 4: I checked on and see if he was okay.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And.

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Speaker 12: I told him what I have said publicly. There's no

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Speaker 12: place for political violence in our country.

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Speaker 3: Vice President Harris also alluded to Trump's debate comments about

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Speaker 3: Haitian migrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, without mentioning Trump directly.

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Speaker 3: She said candidates have a responsibility when they're bestowed with

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Speaker 3: a big microphone.

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Speaker 1: Well, Nathan, let's turn to the Middle East now. And

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Speaker 1: pagers used by hundreds of members of the militant group

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Speaker 1: Hesblah exploded nearly simultaneously on Tuesday in Lebanon in Syria,

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Speaker 1: killing at least nine people, including an eight year old girl,

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Speaker 1: and wounding several thousand. Hesbela and the Lebanese government blamed

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Speaker 1: Israel for what appeared to be a sophisticated remote attack.

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Speaker 1: Israel declined to comment. Bloomberg's Ethan Bronner is in Tel

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Speaker 1: Aviv with Moore.

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Speaker 9: It looks almost certain that the Israelis, through massade or

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Speaker 9: eighty two hundred, one of their major intelligence organizations got

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Speaker 9: into the distribution or manufacturing chain of these pagers and

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Speaker 9: installed small amounts of explosives in each pager, as well

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Speaker 9: as a trigger inside that worked so that once a

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Speaker 9: message was sent, the message was the trigger that exploded

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Speaker 9: those little devices.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Israel bureau chief Ethan Bronner notes that American officials

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Speaker 1: said that the US was neither involved nor informed in

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Speaker 1: advance of the pagers incident.

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Speaker 3: In company news, Karen a legal victory for Google. It's

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Speaker 3: won a court fight with the European Union over a

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Speaker 3: one point seven billion dollar fine for thwarting competition for

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Speaker 3: online ads. Judges at the EU's General Court back to

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Speaker 3: the Alphabet Units challenge to a fine doled out in

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Speaker 3: twenty nineteen, saying regulators made mistakes in their probe. The

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Speaker 3: decision comes a week after the EUS Top Court ruled

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Speaker 3: against Google's attempt to avoid a nearly two point seven

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Speaker 3: billion dollar anti trust penalty for favoring its own product

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Speaker 3: results on search Well.

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Speaker 1: An iconic American company has found for bankruptcy. Nathan and

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's John Tucker is here with Moore and John. I'm

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Speaker 1: willing to bet that there's one of their products in

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Speaker 1: just about everyone's kitchen.

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Speaker 13: Here's a hint, Karen put a lid on it. We're

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Speaker 13: talking about Tupperware brands. For decades, they dominated the world

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Speaker 13: of food storage. Toperware's founder, Earl Tupper this was back

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Speaker 13: in nineteen forty six, introduced the plastic products to the

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Speaker 13: public and patented their flexible airtight seal. The brand's goods

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Speaker 13: later flooded into American homes, largely by the way of

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Speaker 13: independent sales Tupperware parties hosted in suburban homes. Tupperware has

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Speaker 13: filed for Chapter eleven bankruptcy protection, their listing assets of

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Speaker 13: up to one billion dollars and liabilities of up to

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Speaker 13: ten billion. The company's going to seek court approval to

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Speaker 13: facilitate a sale of the business, and they will continue

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Speaker 13: operating during the bankruptcy proceedings. This all follows months of

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Speaker 13: negotiations between Tupperware and its lenders over how to manage

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Speaker 13: hundreds of millions of dollars and loans. In New York

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Speaker 13: on John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: And John It's an end of anier on Wall Street

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Speaker 3: as well. Steve Cohen stepping away from the trading floor,

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Speaker 3: the billionaire hedge fund founder will remain Point A seventy

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Speaker 3: two Asset Management's co chief investment officer, but he's no

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Speaker 3: longer investing client capital, the firm says. The sixty eight

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Speaker 3: year old is instead focused on driving Point seventy two's

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Speaker 3: growth and mentoring and developing talent. Cohen owns the New

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Speaker 3: York Mets. He's been one of the most dominant forces

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Speaker 3: in hedge funds for more than three decades, building his

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Speaker 3: firm into one of the world's biggest. After a costly

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Speaker 3: insider trading scandal, time now for.

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Speaker 1: A look at some of the other stories making news

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Speaker 1: in New York and around the world. And for that

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Speaker 1: we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr Michael, good Morning, Good.

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Speaker 7: Morning, Karen Sean. Dinny Combs was denied bail and ordered

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Speaker 7: maya judge in a federal court in Manhattan to remain

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Speaker 7: in prison until his trial on sex trafficking and racketeering charges.

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Speaker 7: A newly unsealed federal indictment alleges he engaged in kidnapping,

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Speaker 7: forced labor, and more. The fifty four year old music mogul,

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Speaker 7: who has pleaded not guilty, was arrested late Monday. Prosecutors

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Speaker 7: alleged that Combs used his business empire to force women

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Speaker 7: to engage in sexual acts at events. US attorney Damian Williams.

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Speaker 14: As alleged when Combs didn't get his way, he was

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Speaker 14: violent and he subjected victims of physical, emotional, and verbal

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Speaker 14: abuse so that they would participate in the freak offs.

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Speaker 7: US attorney Williams says it was there that Combs was

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Speaker 7: violent toward the women, including dragging them by the hair.

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Speaker 7: After the hearing, defense attorney Marc Agnifilio says his client

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Speaker 7: intends to fight the case to the end.

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Speaker 3: He's been looking forward to this day. He's been looking

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Speaker 3: forward to clearing his name, and he's going to clear

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Speaker 3: his name.

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Speaker 7: Defense attorney Agnifilio will be back in court today for

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Speaker 7: a to get Combs out on bail. The charges come

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Speaker 7: after Homeland Security rated Combs's homes in Los Angeles and

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Speaker 7: Miami last March. Movie producer Harvey Weinstein, whose alleged sexual

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Speaker 7: misconduct helps spark the Me Too movement, will be arraigned

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Speaker 7: today on new charges. The arraignment in Manhattan will clear

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Speaker 7: up issues that resulted in a New York State appeals

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Speaker 7: court overturning Weinstein's original conviction. The appeals court ruled that

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Speaker 7: the jury heard evidence that should have been inadmissible because

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Speaker 7: it was involved in allegations from other women who never

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Speaker 7: brought charges. All but two Republicans in the Senate voted

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Speaker 7: to block a bill that would have ensured nationwide access

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Speaker 7: to in vitro fertilization. Democrats had brought it back to

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Speaker 7: the floor after Republicans previously blocked it from advancing in June.

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Speaker 7: After the vote, Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois said

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Speaker 7: IVF is now threatened by former President Trump, who appointed

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Speaker 7: three of the six Supreme Court justices who voted to

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Speaker 7: overturn Roe v. Wade.

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Speaker 15: He is the reason that IPF is in danger. He

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Speaker 15: is to blame. He and every other Republican who cares

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Speaker 15: more about staying good with Trump than about doing good

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Speaker 15: for the Americans. They are supposed to be serving global.

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Speaker 7: News twenty four hours a day and whenever you wanted

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Speaker 7: with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr. This is

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Speaker 7: Bloomberg Cart.

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Speaker 1: All right, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sports Update with John Stashaur.

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Speaker 2: John, Good morning, Good morning, Karen.

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Speaker 16: Mets and Yankees fans both enjoyed last night their teams

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Speaker 16: won both by nine runs, and the teams they wanted

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Speaker 16: to see lose did just that for the Mets ten

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Speaker 16: to one over Washington at City Field. The Mets scored

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Speaker 16: four times in the thirty eight, added home runs by

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Speaker 16: Francisco Alvarez and Pete Alonzo. Tyler McGill six innings, allowed

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Speaker 16: just two hits nowhere and wrungs. Meanwhile, Atlanta Blue of

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Speaker 16: five to one lead, lost six to five at Cincinnati.

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Speaker 16: Arizona lost eight to two at Colorado. Wildcard standings now

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Speaker 16: have San Diego followed by the Mets and Diamondbacks, who

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Speaker 16: are tied. The Brains are now two games behind. Yankees

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Speaker 16: won eleven to two at Seattle. Aaron Judge got him

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Speaker 16: going before and out was recorded. Judge with a two

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Speaker 16: run double. He added a two run single in inning later,

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Speaker 16: Austin Wells later with a three run double, and one

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Speaker 16: Soto with his fortieth home run two hundredth of his career.

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Speaker 16: Luis Hill got his fourteenth win. Marcus Stroman, just moved

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Speaker 16: to the bullpen, got the save since he worked the

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Speaker 16: last three innings. Slumping Baltimore lost to the Giants ten

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Speaker 16: to nothing. The Yanks are four games ahead, their largest

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Speaker 16: leads since June seventh, and Judge knows that if the

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Speaker 16: Yanks win tonight, they're assured of at least a wild card.

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Speaker 17: Well, we'd definitely be excited, you know, especially after the

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Speaker 17: season we had last year, missing out in the postseason.

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Speaker 17: That's you know what we came into the season to do.

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Speaker 17: You know, getting into the postseason gus ourselves an opportunity

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Speaker 17: to out there and won a World Series. So I

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Speaker 17: thought it'll be step one, but you know, we gotta

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Speaker 17: get there first.

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Speaker 16: Also, last nine, the Dodgers lost Joeyo tanis forty eighth

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Speaker 16: home run as he nears the fifty to fifty club.

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Speaker 16: Stay shower, Bloomberg Sports Canada.

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Speaker 18: Nathan Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

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Speaker 18: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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Speaker 18: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. We are hours away for

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Speaker 3: one of the most highly anticipated and hotly debated Fed

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Speaker 3: policy decisions in years. J Powell and company are widely

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Speaker 3: expected to deliver a cut this afternoon, but just how

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Speaker 3: big it will be remains an open question.

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Speaker 6: A gradual approach is what they're going to pursue.

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Speaker 10: Twenty five basis points is going to be dependent would

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Speaker 10: be the right thing to do.

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Speaker 2: If they don't know fifty tomorrow, I'll be shocked.

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Speaker 3: Now tomorrow is today for former New York FED President

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Speaker 3: Bill Dudley, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio, and Ed Heyman of

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Speaker 3: Evercors you just heard there, joining us now for more

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Speaker 3: on this debate. Veronica Clark, us economist at City Veronica,

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Speaker 3: good morning. I think you've been on both sides of

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Speaker 3: this debate. We're one of the first out of the

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Speaker 3: gate with a fifty basis point call after July jobs.

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Speaker 3: Where do you sit now on FED day?

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Speaker 12: Yeah, good morning, Thank you for having me. I don't

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Speaker 12: think anyone should have, you know, too high of a conviction,

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Speaker 12: and what will happen today? Of course, we're repricing essentially

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Speaker 12: fifty to fifty chance of a twenty five or fifty. Yeah,

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Speaker 12: we were initially expecting that this would be a fifty

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Speaker 12: basis point rate cut, and then we saw the CPI

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Speaker 12: data last week and there were some stronger elements of that.

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Speaker 12: Maybe twenty five is now the path of least resistance

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Speaker 12: in terms of an agreement amongst Seed officials, so expecting

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Speaker 12: in twenty five today, but I think it will be

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Speaker 12: a very duvish decision, keeping all options on the table

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Speaker 12: for future meetings, and I do think we are probably

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Speaker 12: in store for some big rate cuts down the line.

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Speaker 3: What makes you think that, Faronicam, Yeah, it.

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Speaker 12: Essentially comes down to what we're seeing in the labor

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Speaker 12: market and the said reaction to that labor market data.

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Speaker 12: You know, we know already that FED officials see the

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Speaker 12: other inflation mandate and employment mandate really imbalance now, and

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Speaker 12: the risks are very quickly shifting in favor of that

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Speaker 12: employment mandate. We just see hiring pulling back, of course,

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Speaker 12: the unemployment rate rising, the pace of job growth flowing.

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Speaker 12: We think that will continue in the next two jobs

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Speaker 12: reports that we're going to get before the November decision,

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Speaker 12: and I think we'll see more weakness and that will

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Speaker 12: that will let them, you know, do fifty at that meeting.

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Speaker 3: Also, what do you think the market reaction will be

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Speaker 3: if the Fed doesn't go big today? With this debate

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Speaker 3: roiling for so many days? Now, what's the market talking

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Speaker 3: itself into with this debate?

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Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, we we luckily do have you know,

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Speaker 12: updated summary of economic projections today. So that's the updated

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Speaker 12: dot plots for you know, where FED officials see rates

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Speaker 12: at the end of the year. Of course we'll have

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Speaker 12: the press conference from Chair Powell and all of that

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Speaker 12: will will matter if it's not a fifty basis point

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Speaker 12: cut today it's just twenty five. I think there are

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Speaker 12: ways that Fed officials can be sufficiently dubbish, you know,

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Speaker 12: keep what is priced priced in already because you do risk.

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Speaker 12: You know, if you're doing too little, you risk may

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Speaker 12: be looking complacent, looking out of touch, looking like you're

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Speaker 12: behind the curve and risk assets. I don't think we

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Speaker 12: would love that, you know, we would see yields, you know,

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Speaker 12: for out moving lower on almost a policy mistake kind

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Speaker 12: of pricing. So I do you think Charpala has to

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Speaker 12: be sufficiently dubash today. I think they can do that.

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Speaker 12: I think they'll show maybe one hundred basis point total

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Speaker 12: of kutzper for this year on the dot plot. But

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Speaker 12: we'll we'll see what happened.

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