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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? There were running again? So smooth, so sweet,

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Speaker 1: slipid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shot with that? Shop with mind?

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Speaker 2: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The love is left too, the wide eyed, drilled fibus

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Speaker 2: how old Earth?

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hellorie one and welcome back to Wondergirl of the Soccer

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Speaker 3: Betting Podcast when the Action Network presented to you by

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Speaker 3: Betree sixty five. My name is Michael Leebup and joining

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Speaker 3: me for the show horton episode is bj Cunningham, and

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Speaker 3: together the two of us are going to break down

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Speaker 3: the midweek three match slate in the Premier League. It

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Speaker 3: includes a whopper of a match Tuesday between Tottenham and

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Speaker 3: Manchester City. So sure that's why most of you are

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Speaker 3: listening to get our thoughts on that. We'll get to

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Speaker 3: those right away. I will also talk about the Cope

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Speaker 3: Battalia Final, the one La Liga match if there's anything there,

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Speaker 3: and then we'll get out of here and get ready

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Speaker 3: for the final match week of the Premier League match

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Speaker 3: weekend of the Premier League a week from tonight. We're

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Speaker 3: recording this on Sunday night, so bj we have to

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Speaker 3: start with Tottenham and Manchester City title race still on.

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Speaker 3: Arsenal's got the one point lead over City, but City

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Speaker 3: do have the.

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Speaker 1: Game in hand.

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Speaker 3: This is the game in hand and it is wonderfully positioned.

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Speaker 3: This is poised perfectly.

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Speaker 2: Right, like poetic almost.

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Speaker 3: It is poetic. And there have been situations like this

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Speaker 3: in the past. We've seen it with United and and City.

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Speaker 3: We've seen it with Liverpool and Everton when Liverpool Pool

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Speaker 3: were charging for the city title right before the pandemic

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Speaker 3: that City ended up winning with. The most famous moment

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Speaker 3: was the Vincent Company screamer against Who's at Leicster. Right,

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Speaker 3: Spurs are Arsenal's eternal rival. They are at home as

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Speaker 3: a plus five point fifty underdog to Manchester City. City

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Speaker 3: is minus two seventy five. The draw here is five

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Speaker 3: to one. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say

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Speaker 3: that everybody in that stadium will be rooting for Manchester City,

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Speaker 3: whether they do it outwardly, because I think some people

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Speaker 3: do have some sort of like moral dilemma about actually

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Speaker 3: like cheering if Erling Hollands scores a goal against the

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Speaker 3: team and it's your team, it's it's akin to like

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Speaker 3: rooting for your team to be tanking, I guess in

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Speaker 3: American sports with flatteries, et cetera. But I've been there

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Speaker 3: before with with like I said, Everton and played Manchester

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Speaker 3: City late in that season when City won the title

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Speaker 3: by the skin of their teeth against Liverpool, I was

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Speaker 3: rooting for City, like I.

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Speaker 1: Everdon We're safe.

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Speaker 3: They had nothing to play for it, they were going

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Speaker 3: to finish what whatever they finished, like fourteenth.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's wrong.

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Speaker 3: I do think it's a little crazy to think of it,

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Speaker 3: to let it seep into your handicap.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think that that's actually it's.

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Speaker 3: Like an important conversation I have is like, yes, Tottenham

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Speaker 3: fans will be rooting for Manchester City to win. No,

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Speaker 3: Tottenham players are not going to let Manchester City just

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Speaker 3: show up and roll all over them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so be careful. Yeah, it's you know, as an

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Speaker 2: Arsenal fan, it's like unfortunate, right, Like, we get to

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Speaker 2: this point and we're like, yes, this was the game

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Speaker 2: we had circle on the calendar for so long, of like,

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Speaker 2: this is the spot where they trip up and unfortunately,

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Speaker 2: how it's played out is if Tottham gets a result,

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Speaker 2: most likely Arsenal will have the advantage going to the

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Speaker 2: final day. I will say this though. We are recording

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Speaker 2: this on Sunday night, So aston Villa and Liverpool has

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Speaker 2: not happened yet. But with Tottenham beating Burnley, they have

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Speaker 2: kept their top four hopes alive. And if Liverpool is

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Speaker 2: able to beat aston Villa then Tottenham does have a

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Speaker 2: backdoor root into the top four, so they technically do

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Speaker 2: still have something to play for Michael, right, Like again,

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Speaker 2: if aston Villa wins and then it's done. So that's

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Speaker 2: kind of where I'm going with this is I want

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Speaker 2: to wait until Tuesday. First, I want to see the lineups.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to see it. I want to make

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Speaker 2: sure Totam actually plays somebody because I think there might

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Speaker 2: be a chance that if you know, aston Villa wins

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Speaker 2: and the season's over, they might sit a few guys.

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Speaker 2: But again, if it's a situation where they have a

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Speaker 2: full strength squad and they're still battling for top four.

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Speaker 2: I think you still will get a fantastic effort from

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Speaker 2: Tottenham because guess who aston Villa has on the final day.

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Speaker 2: They have the team that can't lose right now, Chris

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Speaker 2: A Palace. So it's the door is open for Tottenham.

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Speaker 2: They got Sheffield away, so like it could be a

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Speaker 2: must all in must win right here for them if

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Speaker 2: Liverpool's ever win. But in terms of the matchup, because

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Speaker 2: you know, there's obviously a lot of things going off

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Speaker 2: the field. First off, if you believe in Bohee teams

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Speaker 2: like Tottenham, is that two City Since twenty twenty, City

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Speaker 2: is four five four five and one against Tottenham, they've

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Speaker 2: lost five times. I've not lost more than five times

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Speaker 2: to any other team in the world during that timeframe.

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Speaker 2: In terms of the matchup, I know Citi has been

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Speaker 2: you know bludgeoning you know, Wolves and Fulham. Fulham looked

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Speaker 2: like they did not care one bit on Saturday morning.

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Speaker 2: Tottenham in the two meetings against City have gotten beaten

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Speaker 2: down pretty bad. If you look at the x G

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Speaker 2: like that's there's no doubt about that City's created close

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Speaker 2: to six expectacles over the two meetings, which is not great.

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Speaker 2: But the times Tottenham has been successful is when they

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Speaker 2: decide to play very very direct by beating them in transition.

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Speaker 2: And really the only time that City has punished them

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Speaker 2: is they've forced eight turnovers and they've scored goals off

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Speaker 2: of set pieces, which are the two biggest achilles heels

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Speaker 2: of Tottenham right now. So if Tottenham actually decides to

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Speaker 2: do what is right, and I don't think post cult

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Speaker 2: is going to do this, but if they just play

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Speaker 2: a little more passively and play more solid defensively and

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Speaker 2: look to play very very direct, it's their best chance

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Speaker 2: of beating Manchester City in this matchup. And if you

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Speaker 2: look at Cities results against good teams away from home,

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Speaker 2: it hasn't been back great all season long. There's obviously

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Speaker 2: the stat that's still out there they have not beaten

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Speaker 2: a Big six team outside of Manchester United in the

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Speaker 2: Premier League this season. They did beat Tottenham away from

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Speaker 2: home in the FA Cup and then they beat Chelsea

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Speaker 2: at a neutral site, but if you look at their

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Speaker 2: recent results away from home, I mean again the matchiginst

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Speaker 2: Chelsea couldn't create everyone expected goal away to real Madrid

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Speaker 2: pointed expected goals but scored three of them. They've lost

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Speaker 2: aston Villa, they've lost Arsenal. They're gonna give up close

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Speaker 2: to three expectacles against Liverpool at anfield like the performances

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Speaker 2: have not been good away from home. So I mean,

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Speaker 2: if this match is being played in like November, Michael,

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Speaker 2: what would City be, They'd be like minus one fifty,

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Speaker 2: like minus one sixty in that range. Right, So I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna wait because as we've seen, and it happened with

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Speaker 2: Arsenal on Sunday, partly because of injuries and partly just

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Speaker 2: because of must win tax. But this line's going only

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Speaker 2: going up. There's I don't see a world where this

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Speaker 2: is gonna come back down to minus two fifty or

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Speaker 2: minus two thirty where it opened. Like we're gonna get

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Speaker 2: up to minus three hundred, like minus three fifty range,

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Speaker 2: and we're gonna get Tottenham at close to maybe even

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Speaker 2: eight or nine to one on the money line, you know,

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Speaker 2: getting them, you know, plus one and a half at

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Speaker 2: plus money. So it's it's a wait and see type

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Speaker 2: of thing in my opinion, like in terms of lineups

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Speaker 2: and what's the motivation, because I truly kind of do

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Speaker 2: believe in, like my heart of hearts that if they

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Speaker 2: have nothing to play for and the result is Arsenal

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Speaker 2: gets the title on, you're not going to see them

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Speaker 2: just let the ball go in the back of the net.

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Speaker 2: But I don't know if they're gonna you're gonna get

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Speaker 2: the eight plus plus performance. You might just get the

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Speaker 2: beer the c performance.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a fun win a handicap. Honestly, it's tough.

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Speaker 1: It's tough.

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Speaker 3: Yes, it's you know, we talk about this, We say

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Speaker 3: it a lot, especially when we're talking tournaments, and we'll

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Speaker 3: talk a lot like Euros when we get there in

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Speaker 3: Copa America all that that there's so much more that

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Speaker 3: can go into a single game when you like take

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Speaker 3: it out of them, when you take it out of

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Speaker 3: a big schedule like this, like when this is the

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Speaker 3: only game on Tuesday, right, it's a Tuesday afternon kickoff.

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Speaker 1: So when you can create like.

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Speaker 3: A standalone game and then you lump in all the

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Speaker 3: drama and the intrigue and and the off the field stuff,

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Speaker 3: it becomes so much fun to handicap. This is why

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Speaker 3: betting can be so much fun. Uh, these kind of situations. Honestly,

174
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Speaker 3: I'm with you. I think Tottenham is easily the right

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Speaker 3: way to go here. And I know it's it's kind

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Speaker 3: of like a tongue in cheek joke for me to

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Speaker 3: say this. You might know what's coming. I really don't

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Speaker 3: think that the nil nil is a bad bet here, yep,

179
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Speaker 3: I really don't think it is. It's thirty three to

180
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Speaker 3: one again, it's not gonna win. But when you think

181
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Speaker 3: about these two teams, right like, if you like you said,

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Speaker 3: there's a very real chance that Tottenham is a little

183
00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:36,480
Speaker 3: more passive, and if and if pasta Coaglu decides to

184
00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:41,959
Speaker 3: rotate and whatever, and some weird chicanery happens, like even

185
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Speaker 3: then those guys are gonna go out there, whoever's in

186
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Speaker 3: the line is gonna go out there try to win

187
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Speaker 3: and whatever. But and also City has the ball and

188
00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:51,040
Speaker 3: Tottenham isn't able to and Tottenham is not able to

189
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Speaker 3: play there, you know, all action, press, get the ball

190
00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,240
Speaker 3: back when it get it, move in one touch, stuff like.

191
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Speaker 1: This game could come disjointed. I see a path here,

192
00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:02,320
Speaker 1: So I don't know.

193
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Speaker 3: I don't think that it's a terrible idea to bet

194
00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:08,640
Speaker 3: to back the draw, which is, you know, if you

195
00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:11,839
Speaker 3: want to just go that route and play it safe

196
00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,480
Speaker 3: with a five to one pay out, go right ahead.

197
00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,360
Speaker 3: But I think that the thirty three to one on

198
00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:20,160
Speaker 3: nil nill once again. And like I said, I know

199
00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:22,160
Speaker 3: this is kind of you know, take you can take

200
00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:23,800
Speaker 3: it for a grain of salt, because I love these

201
00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,559
Speaker 3: kind of bets. I think it's I think it's going

202
00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:27,040
Speaker 3: to be there.

203
00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:32,000
Speaker 2: So yeah. One more thing to note I think that's

204
00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:34,800
Speaker 2: very very important and in Tottenham's favor, is that James

205
00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,200
Speaker 2: Madison didn't play in either meeting most the FA Cup

206
00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:39,679
Speaker 2: and the three to three draw. He's incredibly important to

207
00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:42,520
Speaker 2: Tottenham building up, and like I said, basically all of

208
00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:46,079
Speaker 2: City's chances just came off Tottenham making huge dumb mistakes

209
00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:48,160
Speaker 2: and build up. The three to three draw, they had

210
00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:51,280
Speaker 2: to start Emerson Royale and Ben Davies as their center

211
00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,120
Speaker 2: back pairing. That's when they were going through the injury

212
00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:57,160
Speaker 2: crisis from Romero being suspended. So him being there is

213
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Speaker 2: very very important because he's someone who can drop deep

214
00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:02,280
Speaker 2: and build up. He has two hundred and five progressive

215
00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:04,960
Speaker 2: passes in twenty one point eight nineties. The next closest

216
00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,400
Speaker 2: on Tottenham is Pedro Poro with one hundred and eighty

217
00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,640
Speaker 2: and he's played ten more matches than Madison, so he

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Speaker 2: is he's everything to their build up because not only

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Speaker 2: that is he's able to like his positioning on the

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Speaker 2: field is very similar to Kevin de Bruyna. How Man

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Speaker 2: City uses him where you'll oftentimes see him near the

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Speaker 2: touch line because he's you know, for teams want to

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Speaker 2: play man and man. He polls guys out of position,

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Speaker 2: let's create space for guys through the middle. And I

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Speaker 2: mean like City is still short. Like they probably have

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Speaker 2: their best out of possession performance against Fulham and they've

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Speaker 2: had all season quite honestly, but as we know from them,

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Speaker 2: like it's one thing to stop Fulham, who's a very

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Speaker 2: very average offense in terms of building out, Todam is

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Speaker 2: still a very good build up team. So it's a

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Speaker 2: good matchup for them if they care.

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Speaker 3: Quite frankly, we shall see, all right. So that's the

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Speaker 3: Tuesday kick off the then we have two on Wednesday,

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Speaker 3: one at two forty five pm Eastern that's Brighton and Chelsea.

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Speaker 3: I think this is pretty fair to say of the

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Speaker 3: three matches that will be previewing for the midweek, the

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Speaker 3: least appealing from a betting perspective, Brighton plus two twenty,

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Speaker 3: Chelsea traveling plus one oh five and the draw here

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Speaker 3: is three to one. Feels like Chelsea's getting a lot

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Speaker 3: of respect, but they've kind of earned it. We've tried

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Speaker 3: to push back against it a little bit, but they

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Speaker 3: keep getting results down the stretch here, maybe a little

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Speaker 3: bit of you know that that no, you see a

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Speaker 3: lot when when teams are kind of eliminated from playoff

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Speaker 3: contention in the NHL or other sports, then they start

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Speaker 3: to like get their stuff together because there's no.

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Speaker 1: Real pressure.

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Speaker 3: And I know Chelsea's technically playing for I guess in

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Speaker 3: the top six, et cetera. But I think this looks

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Speaker 3: a little like too much respect and I don't really

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Speaker 3: want to back Brighton. I don't know what's going on there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the that's the thing, right. So I have

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Speaker 2: Chelsea projected at plus one fourteen, so I think the

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Speaker 2: kid is pretty close to kind of where it should be.

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Speaker 2: And from a matchup perspective, you know, Chelsea's build up

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Speaker 2: has been a lot better the last three or four matches.

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Speaker 2: They you know, first half of the season, even even

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Speaker 2: more into the second half, they were doing the three

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Speaker 2: one six build up, trying to like create an over

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Speaker 2: overload on the bat last line, but they were isolating

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Speaker 2: Moys's Cassado and he just wasn't good enough and there

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Speaker 2: was just too far of a gap between that front

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Speaker 2: line and the midfield. Well now they're going with the

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Speaker 2: three two five and they're inverting Kukarea, who is a

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Speaker 2: really good ball playing fullback. He's just not a very

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Speaker 2: good defender. So having him in the middle of the

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Speaker 2: pitch and having somebody like Caaila able to cover him

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Speaker 2: when teams go and transition like it does help Chelsea

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Speaker 2: a lot and they've been playing a lot better with

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Speaker 2: that structure Brighton. Against Newcastle they went with a little

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Speaker 2: bit of a better defensive structure four four two instead

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Speaker 2: of just like the suicidal Manda Man they went with

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Speaker 2: against City a couple of weeks ago. If they do

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Speaker 2: go Mando man, which they shouldn't because Chelsea has no

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Speaker 2: guys like Gallagher and Cole Palmer who can really pull

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Speaker 2: guys out of position and drop deep, it's just not

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Speaker 2: a great match up here for Brighton. But I'm not

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Speaker 2: going to lay Chelsea at you know, plus one or

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Speaker 2: five on the roads, So and even the total I

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Speaker 2: have projected right at three and a half, So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think it's a fairly easy pass and the numbers

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Speaker 2: about right.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 3: The three pm kickoff on Wednesday is a lot more intriguing.

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Speaker 3: It's United and Newcastle man you is plus one sixty

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Speaker 3: at home Newcastle is a slight road favorite plus one forty.

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Speaker 3: The draw here is plus three hundred. These odds are

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Speaker 3: from Bet three six five and a reminder that wonder

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00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:40,360
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297
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Speaker 3: Bet three six five. You must be twenty one or

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Speaker 3: older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,

300
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Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky

301
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302
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Speaker 3: In Iowa terms, conditions and restrictions apply. So essentially it's

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Speaker 3: it's a pick them between United and Newcastle.

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Speaker 1: It's been a mess for United.

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Speaker 3: I thought, you know, pretty gutsy performance against Arsenal. Weren't

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Speaker 3: We're gonna win, go down one. Nothing looks respectable here.

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Speaker 1: Now I don't know.

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Speaker 3: What to expect from this match. You figure it's a

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Speaker 3: lame duck manager situation. It's at home.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's at home and you have no idea

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Speaker 1: what the crowd is going to be.

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Speaker 2: Like.

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Speaker 3: They haven't been great at home the the rest of

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Speaker 3: the like that. The Arsenal game was it for them, right,

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Speaker 3: they had a chance to really play into the the

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Speaker 3: title race.

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Speaker 1: They don't.

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Speaker 3: They're not able to do it. And now they've got

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Speaker 3: this home game. So it's the last home game of

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Speaker 3: the season to expect. Okay, they'll they'll want to show out,

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Speaker 3: go out on their shield in front of their home fans.

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Speaker 3: Then it's a match against Brighton which is going to

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Speaker 3: be dead rubber on Sunday, So once again a match

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Speaker 3: where you can say it's there's top six implications, but

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Speaker 3: I think that this could get off the rails very

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Speaker 3: quickly and you can get Newcastle minus two and a

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Speaker 3: half at close to nine to one. And I think

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Speaker 3: if Newcastle does win, it's going to look like that,

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Speaker 3: it's going to look similar to the Palace match, where

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Speaker 3: United doesn't have the kind of baggage and the kind

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Speaker 3: of responsibility and pressure to play a more cohesive defensive

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Speaker 3: game like they tried to do against Arsenal tonight.

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Speaker 1: So this thing I think can get fly.

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Speaker 3: Off the rails and Newcastle can run it up if

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Speaker 3: they do win. The other option of courses, you can say, okay,

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Speaker 3: but United probably can get theirs. But I don't know

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Speaker 3: I'm getting I think I think that number on Newcastle

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00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:08,760
Speaker 3: looks pretty appealing here for them to win by three.

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Speaker 3: I don't think it's out of the question.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So there was another thing that happened today against

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Speaker 2: Arsenal that I thought was kind of interesting, and it

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Speaker 2: was just another way that shows how bad Manchester United

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Speaker 2: is is that Arsenal recognized very quickly that and they

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Speaker 2: knew this going in that they are so good out

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Speaker 2: of possession and that the one way that United could

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Speaker 2: beat them was in transition. So they handed United the

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Speaker 2: ball and going up inside the first twenty minutes obviously helps,

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Speaker 2: you know, playing one goal lead, but they basically handed

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Speaker 2: United the ball and said, here, break us down. You're like,

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Speaker 2: you can't do it. And guess what they couldn't do

352
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Speaker 2: it point six expected goals, fourteen shots. And you know,

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Speaker 2: United's has been such a tactically flawed team for so long.

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Speaker 2: And there was another instance today. They obviously like to

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Speaker 2: play very direct, but when they were about to play direct,

356
00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:10,439
Speaker 2: they kept inverting Diego Dallo into the midfield for some reason,

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00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:12,919
Speaker 2: and then they were sending the ball along and so

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Speaker 2: when the goal happened, Dalla was just standing in the

359
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:17,359
Speaker 2: middle of the pitch and obviously you know the screenshots

360
00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:19,480
Speaker 2: of Casimiro not getting up to the pack line and

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00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:22,480
Speaker 2: allowing Everts to actually be on side for the goal.

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Speaker 2: But it was just like, all right, well, if we're

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Speaker 2: playing direct, like what is the left back doing in

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00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,280
Speaker 2: the middle of the pitch, Like what is going on?

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Speaker 2: So just like another you know, just added to the

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Speaker 2: list of you know, things that ten Hog has done

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Speaker 2: at United. But but yeah, this match should be very

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Speaker 2: fun like very back and forth transitional type match. I mean,

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00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:46,320
Speaker 2: Newcastle's offense is incredible. Like it's funny because if you were,

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Speaker 2: you know, a neutral, and you haven't followed the Premier

371
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:50,679
Speaker 2: League and you're like, oh my gosh, Like Newcastle put

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00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:54,640
Speaker 2: up five against Sheffield United, four against Burnley, Like over

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00:18:54,680 --> 00:19:01,000
Speaker 2: their last three matches they've almost created and expected goals,

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Speaker 2: you'd be like, oh, well, they're playing Manchester United, right, Well,

375
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,400
Speaker 2: Matche is just as bad as the defense as Burnley

376
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Speaker 2: and Sheffield United. So since January thirtieth, Newcastle is averaging

377
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,960
Speaker 2: two point two expected goals per ninety minutes. And Newcastle

378
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 2: is still going through sminjuries across their back lineups like

379
00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,080
Speaker 2: Fabian Shar won't be back for this one, so it's

380
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:25,080
Speaker 2: gonna be another Emul Kraft and Dan Byrne as the

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00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 2: center back pairing, which is, you know, obviously not ideal,

382
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 2: but their entire attack is healthy. What's funny, Michael, is

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Speaker 2: if you go back to the previous meeting, because Newcastle's

384
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Speaker 2: beaten Nowt United twice and in both meetings Newcastle has

385
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Speaker 2: come into those in just the most dire injury situation

386
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:45,399
Speaker 2: that you could even imagine, you know, there's the famous

387
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Speaker 2: three nil win that they had against them in the

388
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,640
Speaker 2: FA Cup after they had lost to Dortmund and drew

389
00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:55,360
Speaker 2: Wolves and basically had you know, sent Yain no midfielders

390
00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 2: or no center backs really healthy to play for that match.

391
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 2: They beat him three tough thing by just playing passively

392
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 2: and letting United try to break them down right, and

393
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 2: they just sole them all off them at the midway

394
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:09,160
Speaker 2: line and then scored. And then they beat them one

395
00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 2: nothing and created two point four expected goals in November,

396
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:18,199
Speaker 2: coming off the match against PSG where they conceded like

397
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:20,680
Speaker 2: six expected goals and then went on to lose three

398
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 2: nothing to Everton. After that lost four one to Tottenham

399
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 2: and then lost to as Milana, got kicked out of

400
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 2: it and got knocked out the Champions League. So even

401
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 2: when Newcastle was going through a really rough time, they

402
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 2: still found a way to throttle Manchester United. So my

403
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 2: point is is like this could be the exact same scenario.

404
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,159
Speaker 2: So I like Newcastle's team total. If you want to

405
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 2: chase a bigger price, two and a half is over

406
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 2: two and a half is plus two to twenty five.

407
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 2: Over one and a half is minus one fifty I

408
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:52,879
Speaker 2: protected two point three goals for that match. And I

409
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 2: also like e Shack anytime goal score at plus one

410
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 2: twenty just because he's amazing and this is the worst defense,

411
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 2: and he's been playing these bad defenses and he keeps

412
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,719
Speaker 2: scoring against them, so why not against United?

413
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Speaker 3: Okay, that does it for the Premier League. The three

414
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,639
Speaker 3: matches in the Premier League. We'll be back again obviously

415
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 3: Wednesday night to go through all of the ten matches

416
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,119
Speaker 3: coming up. They'll all kick off at Sunday morning at

417
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,680
Speaker 3: eleven am Eastern time. But before we get out of here,

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00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 3: we'll talk about a couple more matches, and a big

419
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 3: one in Italy between Adelanta and Juventus, the Copa Italia Final.

420
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 1: This one is a pickup.

421
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 3: The three way line is sitting plus one seventy five

422
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:38,199
Speaker 3: on Adelanta, plus one seventy five for Juve and the

423
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 3: draw is plus two ten.

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00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 1: What do you got here?

425
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean, how can you not bet at Atlanta

426
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 2: right now? One of the hottest teams on the planet

427
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 2: obviously just made the Europa League final against Juventus after

428
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 2: knocking down Marseille. You know, Juventus, they've kind of been

429
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 2: locked in the top four or champions league spot for

430
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,919
Speaker 2: a long time now. There's you know, this is probably

431
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:04,159
Speaker 2: a Legris one of his last matches with Juventus. But

432
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 2: over the second half of the season, Adelanta has a

433
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 2: pretty sizable better to expect a goal differential than Juventus

434
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 2: because Uventus got a lot of their best results in

435
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 2: the beginning of the season. They've actually gone five straight

436
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 2: matches now where they've been winless, and you know, they've

437
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 2: actually lost the expected goals battle in three of those

438
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 2: five matches, and that's playing teams like Toino, Lazio, Milan Roma,

439
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 2: essentially good teams like they have beaten up on the

440
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 2: bottom half of the Sirias table for a long time now,

441
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 2: but when they play good competition they tend to struggle.

442
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 2: They just played out alanten To to to draw on

443
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:42,719
Speaker 2: March tenth. That was a pretty even match, and then

444
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 2: earlier this season it was a zero zero draw and

445
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 2: they got pretty well out played. So without a lot

446
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 2: of playing much better, they'll be the ones controlling the possession.

447
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 2: They've been much better at defending in transition. At least

448
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 2: they did a great job against a transition team like Marseille,

449
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 2: so I like got a lot of Dronto bad at

450
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 2: minus ten to lift the trophy at minus one ten.

451
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 2: Either one you want to play is totally fine, but yeah,

452
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 2: I mean we're getting down to the nitty gritty here

453
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 2: and on Alana has just got a huge win against

454
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:13,719
Speaker 2: Roman on Sunday that puts them into the Champions League spots,

455
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 2: So just back in the hot team.

456
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 3: That one is also Wednesday afternoon. It's a three pm

457
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 3: Eastern time kickoff. And finally we'll talk some La Liga,

458
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 3: whole host of matches to go through through the midweek.

459
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 3: What anything that jumps out to you here before you

460
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 3: wrap this up.

461
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, via Real Girona over three and a half at

462
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 2: even money. So via Real started out the season under

463
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 2: key k Centtien, playing more of a possession dominant style

464
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 2: build out of the back, and they've since under Marcelino

465
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 2: have transitioned to more of a four to four to two,

466
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 2: more direct type of team, which really bodes well here

467
00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 2: against Girona. Girona again mentioned them against Alavase. Jerona is

468
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,360
Speaker 2: a team that is playing a little bit more conservatively,

469
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,159
Speaker 2: not getting just completely exposed in transition, but they're still

470
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 2: kind of vulnerable in that aspect, and you know, be

471
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,879
Speaker 2: arial has been playing just some bonkers matches over the

472
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 2: second half of the season, averaging well over three expected

473
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 2: goals in their matches, so should be a very fun

474
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 2: back and forth type of encounter. But Virial's defense is

475
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 2: literally one of the worst in La Liga, bottom five

476
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 2: in expected goals allowed. They are close to the bottom

477
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 2: in final thirty to box entry conversion rate as well,

478
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:41,360
Speaker 2: so it's a It's a decent match up here for

479
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,360
Speaker 2: for both offenses quite frankly so, and even vi Real,

480
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 2: I mean they're allowing the most box entries in La

481
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 2: Liga's not really a team that defends too much. So

482
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 2: over three and a half at even money for me.

483
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,880
Speaker 3: Okay, short and sweet for this episode of Wonder Goal.

484
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:03,160
Speaker 3: Obviously that that Manchester City time match we'll take up

485
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:04,880
Speaker 3: most of the attention this week, but as I said,

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00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 3: we'll be back recording Wednesday night to preview the final

487
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 3: weekend of the Premier League, and then we'll be back

488
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 3: for the Champions League final and we will start getting

489
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 3: going on our Euros preview episodes, etc.

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00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 1: So keep an eye out for that.

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00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 3: No rest for the weary here in Soccerland and the

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00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 3: Wonderful Podcast.

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00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 1: Thank you for listening. Please rate, review and subscribe.

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00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 3: Thank you to our producer Noah, and we will see

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00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 3: you all again in a couple of days.

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00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,600
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