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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game?

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read.

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Speaker 1: Enough there for running a game.

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Speaker 2: So smooth, so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 1: Sisting just glorious ex.

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Speaker 3: Procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort

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Speaker 3: four thousand percent of the time. How shot with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why you see your

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Speaker 1: beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The wall.

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Speaker 2: It's left to of the wide eyed, drilled pibus.

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Speaker 3: How old Earth.

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens? Hello and welcome to the Manchester Derby

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Speaker 1: edition of Wonder Goal, the soccer betting podcast from the

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Speaker 1: Action Network. My name is Michael Ebuff and it just

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Speaker 1: a moment. I will be joined by my footy fluttering

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Speaker 1: friends BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo, and together the three

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Speaker 1: of us will handicap all ten upcoming Premier League matches.

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Speaker 1: Then we'll dive into some Bundesliga, some Syria a La

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Speaker 1: Liga Legal before giving out our favorite underdogs and then

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Speaker 1: wrapping everything up with our favorite bet from the weekend.

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Speaker 1: But there's only one place to start this week, and

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Speaker 1: it's at Old Trafford, where Manchester United will welcome their

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Speaker 1: inner city rivals Manchester City to the Theater of Dreams.

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Speaker 1: City has an odds on minus one forty five road

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Speaker 1: favorite to win this one. BJ Let's talk this one

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Speaker 1: through that Manchester unit has been an absolute roller coaster.

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Speaker 1: They're plus three to eighty at home. The City team

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Speaker 1: is obviously a wagon, but they're coming off a loss

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Speaker 1: to Crystal Palace in the Premier League. They did have

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Speaker 1: a little bit of trouble with Club Brus before putting

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Speaker 1: them away in Champions League. The draw sitting at plus

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Speaker 1: three ten. We've seen these two teams play to a

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Speaker 1: draw recently as last season. This is an eight thirty

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Speaker 1: am kickoff on Saturday, meaning that it's twelve thirty over

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Speaker 1: there in England because they haven't because we haven't had

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Speaker 1: daylight saving time, so it's in early kickoff too. There's

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Speaker 1: a lot of fun factors going to this one. How

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Speaker 1: do you see it playing out?

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Speaker 2: I think that this could be another Molly whopping of

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Speaker 2: Manchester United, similar to what Liverpool did a few weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: I have Manchester City projected at minus one sixteen in

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Speaker 2: the total at two point eight one, so currently I

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Speaker 2: don't really think there's much value in taking the money

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Speaker 2: line spread er total, but I do think that the

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Speaker 2: Manchester City team total is in play, especially in all

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Speaker 2: to one, like a two and a half maybe three

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Speaker 2: and a half. Because Rafael veron I limped off with

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Speaker 2: an injury in the Champions League on Wednesday, and it

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Speaker 2: got confirmed today that he's going to be out for

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Speaker 2: a month. That's a huge problem because a lot of

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Speaker 2: what Manchester United has had problems with is their defense

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Speaker 2: and defensive transition. Because Harry McGuire's out of form, Lindeloff

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Speaker 2: hasn't been playing great. So now Soulshar switches to a

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Speaker 2: three to five to two, Well, who's he going to

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Speaker 2: play at the back three? He's gonna play McGuire, Lindeloff,

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Speaker 2: who's questionable for this one in Eric Baidy, Like that's

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Speaker 2: not going to work against Manchester City, who now with

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Speaker 2: Jack Grealish in the lineup, are being much more direct,

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Speaker 2: much quicker in their transition going forward. I mean Grealish,

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Speaker 2: he's got forty three carries into the penalty area. The

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Speaker 2: next closest is Adam mont Treora at twenty five. He's

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Speaker 2: been pretty much the best player in the Premier League

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Speaker 2: from open play this season. The City has so many

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Speaker 2: attackers going forward that can just get right at this

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Speaker 2: Manchester United back line. So you could see what United

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Speaker 2: did last year. You could see them just basically sit

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Speaker 2: deep and try to play off a couple of low blocks,

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Speaker 2: then just send Rinaldo out on the counter. But Renaldo's

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Speaker 2: not going to defend at all, so You're just gonna

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Speaker 2: be basically playing nine versus ten the whole match against

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Speaker 2: pretty much one of the best attacks in the world

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Speaker 2: and basically get pinned in the entire match. So it

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Speaker 2: is a horrific matchup for Manchester United's similar to the

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Speaker 2: attacking prowess that Liverpool had going forward. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: go Manchester City team total over two and a half

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Speaker 2: at plus one ninety five. I wouldn't mind even trying

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Speaker 2: to go all the way up to three and a

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Speaker 2: half because I do think that if Manchester City scores

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Speaker 2: first and Manchester has to come out of those low blocks,

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Speaker 2: it has to actually play an open game with Pep Guardiola,

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Speaker 2: it could be just similar to Liverpool. It could be

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Speaker 2: five to nothing at half before this one's over. So

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Speaker 2: I'll take Manchester City team total over two and a

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Speaker 2: half at plus one ninety five.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm right there with you. I like the City

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Speaker 1: team total over this. United teams just don't know what

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Speaker 1: to expect from them, not just on a game by

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Speaker 1: game basis, but like every ten minutes of a game

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Speaker 1: is something different. We just saw with their Champions League

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Speaker 1: gainst Atlanta they need Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandez to

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Speaker 1: rescue them twice. They were better against out a lot

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Speaker 1: in the first meeting between the two of them a

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Speaker 1: couple weeks ago, but same thing, right, they needed Ronaldo

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Speaker 1: to rescue them twice. I don't think that Christiano Ronaldo

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Speaker 1: is going to be able to do that. I don't

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Speaker 1: think Bruno Fernandez is going to be able to do

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Speaker 1: that against this City defense, which is probably top two

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Speaker 1: or three in the world, maybe even the best in

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Speaker 1: the world. So I like City to maybe pitch a

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Speaker 1: shot out, But I'm like you, I think chasing a

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Speaker 1: big price, maybe the six to one and over three

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Speaker 1: and a half or something for an early kickoff on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: maybe get the day started right. It seems like a

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Speaker 1: lot of fun, Anthony. What about you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, Bja mentioned it with a twitch to

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Speaker 3: the three five two. I think that's the big key here.

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Speaker 3: You know, it worked against Tottenham, who doesn't have, you know,

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Speaker 3: a clear plan of ball progression. Tottenham didn't even start

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Speaker 3: tangying dumblay who's their best ball progressor in that game.

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Speaker 3: It made it much easier for United two man midfield

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Speaker 3: to really get the job done and kind of prevent

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Speaker 3: getting ripped apart. Pop Guardiola will have a very different

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Speaker 3: and a much better approach than Nuno a Spirito Santo did.

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Speaker 3: They're going to create a lot of overloads in the middle.

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Speaker 3: They're going to ice the wing backs quite a bit,

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Speaker 3: I think, and create some space in behind or in

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Speaker 3: between the wingbacks and the outside center backs. I have

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Speaker 3: major questions about Man United's ability to defend anything in

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Speaker 3: this match, but I also think we mentioned this a

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Speaker 3: few weeks ago. The City defense is not quite as impenetrable.

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Speaker 3: They're allowing teams to come at them a little more.

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Speaker 3: They're not quite as good at winning the ball back

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Speaker 3: as say the Guardiola teams of twenty eighteen and seventeen,

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Speaker 3: those pressing machines that one one hundred points in the

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Speaker 3: Premier League. They're not quite at that level in terms

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Speaker 3: of winning the ball back, but they're also not quite

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Speaker 3: at the boring slow possession, not let you have the ball,

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Speaker 3: not let you attack that the City was last season,

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Speaker 3: So I think there is some vulnerabilities here. And even

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Speaker 3: in the United drubbing against Liverpool, they still managed a

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Speaker 3: lot of shots and a lot of chances they probably

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Speaker 3: should have got one. Ultimately, they have one of the

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Speaker 3: best shot getters and scorers in the world still in

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Speaker 3: Christiano Ronaldo, so the plus that he provides on the

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Speaker 3: offensive end combined with the minus that he is on defense,

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Speaker 3: and I'm very much expecting Guardiola to exploit the fact

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Speaker 3: that Renal though can't press the ball at all. I

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Speaker 3: think they'll be very easy for somebody like say John

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Speaker 3: Stones or Rubin Diaz to play out from the back

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Speaker 3: to carry the ball past the first line of defense

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Speaker 3: for United. So I think it's going to be an

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Speaker 3: open game. I know United have played conservatively against City

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Speaker 3: in the past, I'm not sure they're capable of that

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Speaker 3: with the current structure of the team. So both teams

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Speaker 3: to score an over two and a half goals. I

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Speaker 3: think City ultimately wins this one relatively comfortably. Not comfortable

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Speaker 3: laying in minus one to forty five. But City beat

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Speaker 3: to ts and over two and a half goals is

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Speaker 3: minus one ten. That's where I'll be on the Manchester

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Speaker 3: donedy yeat.

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Speaker 1: And it also begs for mentioning that this is a

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Speaker 1: very important game for City to get points fro like

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Speaker 1: Chelsea is in first place at twenty five. Let's say

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Speaker 1: City don't get three points here and Chelsea do what

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Speaker 1: they're supposed to do against Burnley like you're playing ketchup,

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Speaker 1: and sure they're able to do it. They're actually even

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Speaker 1: though they're behind Chelsea there plus one twenty five favorites

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Speaker 1: to win the Premier League. This is an important game.

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Speaker 1: I think Guardiola will know that and have this team

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Speaker 1: ready to take all three points. So that's the Manchester derby.

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Speaker 1: That's the early kickoff on Saturday. There is a game

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Speaker 1: on Friday, the Little Friday Night Lights in the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: Southampton plus one ten at home against Acid Villa who

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Speaker 1: are plus two fifty the draws plus two seventy. This

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Speaker 1: is four pm on Friday. I think this is probably

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Speaker 1: going to end up being a bi low opportunity on Villa.

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Speaker 1: They've lost four matches in a row, but they've scored

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Speaker 1: in all four of those matches. They've not been good.

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Speaker 1: I'm not trying to gloss over that they've looked a

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Speaker 1: little lost is the best word without Jack Grealish, and

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Speaker 1: I just don't think Dean Smith has done a great

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Speaker 1: job of trying to figure out how to fit all

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Speaker 1: the pieces that he brought in in the summer to

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Speaker 1: replace Grealish correctly. But I don't think that the Southampton

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Speaker 1: team is much better in a vacuum than Asa Villa.

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Speaker 1: So the number is good enough. It might even get

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Speaker 1: better considering what Villa has been doing and the fact

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Speaker 1: that Southampton's been playing better. So I like this opportunity

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Speaker 1: to buy Loo on Villa. Anthony, what about you?

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Speaker 3: No no play for me at the current number plus

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Speaker 3: one ten's are out there. I do agree with you

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Speaker 3: that we may see some Southampton money come in late here.

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Speaker 3: If we do and we can get maybe you know,

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Speaker 3: minus one ten minus one fifteen on Villa plus a half,

189
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Speaker 3: then I'll probably jump in and buy low on Villa.

190
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Speaker 3: Southampton's numbers have actually been steadily rising in the last

191
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Speaker 3: few weeks. They've made some changes in personnel, going to

192
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Speaker 3: some younger guys. Brosia as a striker especially, has impressed

193
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Speaker 3: me with his performance, but he's questionable for this game.

194
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Speaker 3: He may not play. Southampton sitting comfortably in the mid table.

195
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Speaker 3: The biggest concern for Villa has been their defensive regression.

196
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Speaker 3: It's really started first half of last season. They were

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Speaker 3: one of the best defenses in the prem They had

198
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Speaker 3: a stretch in December and January where they played a

199
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Speaker 3: lot of the best teams in the league. Their numbers

200
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Speaker 3: took a big hit. They really haven't been great defensively since.

201
00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:40,880
Speaker 3: And now when you look at some of their numbers,

202
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Speaker 3: they're mighty concerning, down in the bottom five and expected

203
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Speaker 3: goals allowed, and they've been conceding a lot of clear

204
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Speaker 3: cut chances to a lot of very mediocre teams in

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Speaker 3: the last few weeks. So I'm a little concerned about

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Speaker 3: this defense. And you know, given that Southampton does have

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Speaker 3: some positive regression coming. But at a certain point, we

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Speaker 3: play numbers here, I make Villa or she'd be sid

209
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Speaker 3: head and plus one forty eight, and so you know,

210
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Speaker 3: we're getting to the point now where if we get

211
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Speaker 3: a little more steam on Southampton, I'll be jumping in

212
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Speaker 3: on Villa BJ.

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Speaker 1: I know you don't see much value on the money line,

214
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Speaker 1: but you are going to be playing this game in

215
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Speaker 1: a different way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go both team to score no. At

217
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Speaker 2: plus one twenty five. I mean this Auston Villa offense,

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Speaker 2: it's bad right now, only point nine to six, non

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Speaker 2: penalty expected goals per match eighteenth and big scoring chances

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Speaker 2: fifteenth and shots per ninety fourteenth in box entries. They

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Speaker 2: have not been able to replace Jack Realish whatsoever. And

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Speaker 2: eventually they might turn around. You know, they have played

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Speaker 2: a really tough schedule. Seven of their ten opponents so

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Speaker 2: far are in the top half of the table. But Southampton,

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Speaker 2: like you mentioned, Anthony, their defense is actually getting a

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Speaker 2: lot better, especially from last season. Basically, you know, they're

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Speaker 2: thirteenth and non penalty expected goals right now, but it's

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Speaker 2: because they're nineteenth and big scoring chances allowed. You know,

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Speaker 2: they're only third in box entries allowed, they're only fifth

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Speaker 2: in shots per ninety allowed. So it's still a really

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Speaker 2: good defense if they can just stop giving up those

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Speaker 2: big scoring chances. And for Aston Villa defensively, one thing

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Speaker 2: that they've really struggled. They've been horrible on set pieces

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Speaker 2: this year, they've had one of the worst on the

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Speaker 2: highest extal per shot in the Premier League. But Southampton

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Speaker 2: has only created like two expected goals off of twenty

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Speaker 2: seven set pieces, so it might not get exploited here.

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Speaker 2: I really just don't trust this Assinvil offense right now.

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Speaker 2: And I know Southampton has been progressively getting better, but

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Speaker 2: they're still pretty average in the XG table right now.

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Speaker 2: I only have both teams to score at minus one

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Speaker 2: oh seven. Yes, so I do like both teams to

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Speaker 2: score no at plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: One thing on that Philla's main reason they were in

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Speaker 3: the relegation fight a couple of years ago coming back

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Speaker 3: out of COVID was their defensive issues on set pieces.

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Speaker 3: They were much better last year. I was wondering if

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Speaker 3: it would be sustainable. Those numbers have regressed back to

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Speaker 3: what we saw when they were relegation fodder, and so

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Speaker 3: that's been the main culprit of the defensive regression. Also,

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Speaker 3: the midfield not quite doing as much ball winning as

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Speaker 3: they were last season.

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Speaker 2: Now I'd figure out when they played Burnley.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they've been an interesting team. Dean Smith on the

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Speaker 1: hot seat a little bit. He's a Villa fan, he's

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Speaker 1: a Villa through and through. He got them promoted, but

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Speaker 1: those lose four last matches in a row in the

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Speaker 1: Premier League and all of a sudden everybody wants to

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Speaker 1: have you sacked. Let's move on to Saturday morning, eleven

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Speaker 1: am kickoff. Chelsea minus three ninety prohibitive favorites against Burnley,

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Speaker 1: who are eleven to one on the money line, the

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Speaker 1: draw plus five point fifty. I don't know how much

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Speaker 1: attention will be paid to this game, just because I

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Speaker 1: think everyone expects Chelsea to continue their little romp through

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Speaker 1: what has been just a cupcake schedule for them over there,

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Speaker 1: basically since the less international break Malmo twice, then they

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Speaker 1: played Norwich, Newcastle, now Burnley. It's it's been quite the

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Speaker 1: little vacation. And Thomas Dougal's done a good job of

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Speaker 1: rotating his squad right like Ross Barkley is getting minutes,

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Speaker 1: getting off his cheek minutes. He's doing a pretty good

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Speaker 1: job of getting guys in and out of the lineup.

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Speaker 1: Ben Chilwell, I like to over here we've talked a

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Speaker 1: lot about Chelsea's defensive numbers being due for some regression.

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Speaker 1: Ten point two expectacles against this year, only three allowed

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League, so that number should tick up

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Speaker 1: at some point. And Burnley's not been as much as

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Speaker 1: Burnley I guess as they normally have, like they are

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Speaker 1: mediocre offensively and mediocre defensively. Usually they're a little bit

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Speaker 1: more stout defensively and less exciting offensively. I think that

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Speaker 1: this game could go a couple of different ways. Maybe

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Speaker 1: Burnley gets one, but I think, like we saw last

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Speaker 1: week with the Newcastle game, I was pretty confident that

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Speaker 1: Chelsea would be able to cover the over by themselves.

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Speaker 1: They did it, and I see something similar here. But

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if Burnley gets on the board.

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Speaker 1: And do you have anything on this game, even if

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Speaker 1: you don't have a play like, I think it is

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Speaker 1: interesting just to talk about this matchup because I think

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Speaker 1: Burnley is just very strange more than anything this year,

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Speaker 1: and they're usually just not we know what we're getting

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Speaker 1: out of Burnley not anymore.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, Burnley's defenses regressed hard. They're not doing

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Speaker 3: the things that you would expect to see from a

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Speaker 3: typical Burnley team who is beating their expected goals numbers,

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Speaker 3: getting a ton of bodies behind the ball blocking a

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Speaker 3: ton of shots.

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Speaker 1: We mentioned.

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Speaker 3: I think I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago

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Speaker 3: with Burnley when I bet an over in their game

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Speaker 3: and I said, like Nick Pope has regressed. He's no

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Speaker 3: longer being been the best shot stopper in the league.

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Speaker 3: He's actually been quite below average the last calendar year,

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Speaker 3: dating back to the end of last season. That that's

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Speaker 3: really part of where the regression started. They're also, like

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Speaker 3: I mentioned, blocking fewer shots. You know this matchup, you know,

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Speaker 3: and since you know, I think we have kind of

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Speaker 3: a narrative on this podcast, we're an anti Chelsea podcast.

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Speaker 3: I don't want to get that out there. Chelsea is

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Speaker 3: the third best team in this league by comfortable margin

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Speaker 3: in my numbers. I'm pretty sure BJ would agree with that.

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Speaker 3: They have just overperformed that to an excessive standard. The

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Speaker 3: reason for this is that they've been really early, really

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Speaker 3: good early in games. It's kind of similar to what

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Speaker 3: Liverpool did the year they won the title, where they

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Speaker 3: were very over very fortunate to overperform early in games,

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Speaker 3: grab an early lead and then shut it down. They haven't.

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Speaker 3: They just haven't been as good at shutting it down

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Speaker 3: this year. I'm not sure Burnley is the team. The

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Speaker 3: day will come when we're gonna we're gonna cash a

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Speaker 3: Chelsea defensive fade. This will not be the game where

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Speaker 3: I test it. Burnley does have a potential edge here

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Speaker 3: and crosses. They complete more crosses into the penalty area

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Speaker 3: than almost any team in the league. Chelsea can be

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Speaker 3: a little susceptible to crosses. That's one potential, so you

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Speaker 3: know maybe, but otherwise it's very hard to see Burnley

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Speaker 3: scoring here at Stanford Bridge. So I'm passing.

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Speaker 1: Here's a price you probably didn't think you would hear

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Speaker 1: in the preseason. That's Brentford as a minus one seventy

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Speaker 1: five favorite there at home against Norwich. So that's why

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Speaker 1: Norich is five to one on the money line the

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Speaker 1: draws plus three ten. This is eleven am on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Brentford are in a little bit of an injury crisis

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Speaker 1: right now. They could have up to seven players not fit.

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Speaker 1: Their goalkeeper he's out for a while, so they're going

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Speaker 1: to go through a little bit of a wabble here.

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Speaker 1: I think we all expected this to come at some point.

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Speaker 1: A lot of times with teams like Brentford, you want

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Speaker 1: to ride with them during the their kind of hot

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Speaker 1: spell and then when the signals start to flash that

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Speaker 1: things could start to get a little uncomfortable. You don't

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Speaker 1: want to hop off, and I mean I don't want

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Speaker 1: to bet Norich five to one against this team like

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Speaker 1: they were both in the championship last year. Norwich won

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Speaker 1: the championship very comfortably last year. This number probably if

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Speaker 1: this game was played in September, would not be this close. However,

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Speaker 1: Norrich is terrible, so I'm just gonna really really think

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Speaker 1: hard on this one. But it's no Rich or nothing

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Speaker 1: for me, Anthony, what about you?

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Speaker 3: Yea? I'm gonna go both teams to score minus one

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Speaker 3: oh five. I've been talking about this since we started

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Speaker 3: the show. This Brentford defense is not going to hold

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Speaker 3: up as a top six to seven defense in the

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Speaker 3: Premier League. That would just be unheard of in historic

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Speaker 3: for a promoted team to be that good. They lose

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Speaker 3: their goalkeeper, they lose Asia, their center back. They can

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Speaker 3: see two quarter expected goals to Burnley, three goals, one

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Speaker 3: of which was partially due to the goalie air being

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Speaker 3: way out of position. Not feeling too great about the

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Speaker 3: Brentford defense right now, and how they project going forward

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Speaker 3: in the short to medium term even long term in

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Speaker 3: this league. And we have a Norich team who I

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Speaker 3: have back to score on a couple occasions. They have

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Speaker 3: let me down both times, so let's go back to

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Speaker 3: it again. The numbers are simple. I understand they're on

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Speaker 3: pace to be historically bad in terms of their numbers,

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Speaker 3: based on actual results, based on goal difference, based on

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Speaker 3: the fact they haven't won any of their games. They

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Speaker 3: have two draws out of ten matches played. Expected numbers

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Speaker 3: have them in line with just like a bad Premier

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Speaker 3: League team, not like a historically bad Premier League team,

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Speaker 3: in fact, not even as bad as Wes Brom was

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Speaker 3: for most of last season. So I think Norwich gets

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Speaker 3: on the board here. They have seven point nine expected goals,

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Speaker 3: They've only actually scored three goals. I think they'll get

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Speaker 3: one in this game. And Norwich have conceded nineteen expected goals,

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Speaker 3: most of any team in the league. Brentford's direct, counter

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Speaker 3: attacking type style will give this Norwich team issues. Norwich

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Speaker 3: has kind of lacked a defensive spine and they are

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Speaker 3: more recent trips into the Premier League, and so I

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Speaker 3: think both teams get on the board here. I don't

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Speaker 3: hate Norwich on the money line either as a potential flag.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, real quick Derby County update. Derby County in the

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Speaker 2: seven eight season five points from the first ten matches

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Speaker 2: Norwich two. So I'll be tracking that as we go

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Speaker 2: along this season.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but I think that point is why we're seeing

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Speaker 1: value on the Canaries in the spot right, like everyone

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Speaker 1: is paying attention. Are they going to be the worst

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Speaker 1: team in the Premier League era? And as Anthony said

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Speaker 1: last year, like we've talked about what bram in a

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Speaker 1: similar light and it's just whoever's the worst team? I

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Speaker 1: mean two years before that we talked about Norwich again

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Speaker 1: in a similar light, like it's wherever's the worst team?

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Speaker 1: Gets talked about this way Usually it means the value

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Speaker 1: drives up. Does that value always come to fruition in

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Speaker 1: a win. No, they're five to one on the money

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Speaker 1: line for a reason. But yeah, it's a very tempting

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Speaker 1: number on a terribly untempting team for sure. Another eleven

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Speaker 1: am kickoff on Saturday, Crystal Palace, fresh off they're twenty

401
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Speaker 1: to one upset against Manchester City. They're plus one fifty

402
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Speaker 1: against Wolves who were plus two h five on the

403
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Speaker 1: road the draws plus two to twenty. Both of these

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Speaker 1: teams have been really impressive through the first third of

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Speaker 1: the season, Like I think Palace maybe more so. I

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Speaker 1: think less people probably expected them to look this good,

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Speaker 1: but they're both. They're underlying metrics are good, They're starting

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Speaker 1: to get results, so this is much more I think

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Speaker 1: if you would ask preseason, you know, pick out five

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Speaker 1: of the least interesting fixtures on the calendar, this one

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Speaker 1: might have made a lot of people's lists. But I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, speaking for all three of us, I'm really

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Speaker 1: intrigued by this matchup, and I think there is good

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Speaker 1: betting value and I know you two believe that too,

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Speaker 1: and we're all on the same side. So Bjay start

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Speaker 1: to break it down.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't understand why Crystal Palace is even a

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Speaker 2: slight favor in this one. Wolves should be favored. They've

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Speaker 2: been incredibly impressive this season. Honestly, probably the one more

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Speaker 2: fun aesthetically pleasing teams to actually just watch from a

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Speaker 2: you know, the the eye test. But listen, Crystal Palace

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Speaker 2: has improved defensively with Mark g and Jockey Manderson at

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Speaker 2: center back to only a long one point one to

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Speaker 2: one non penalty expect goals per match, But some of

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Speaker 2: their other defensive metrics are a little concerning. You know,

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Speaker 2: they're eleventh in box centries lowed sixteenth and crosses completed

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00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,719
Speaker 2: in their own eighteen yard box twelfth into progressive passes

428
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Speaker 2: allowed non a vieira. There they have the most pressures

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Speaker 2: of anybody in the Premier League, but their fourteenth and

430
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Speaker 2: passes per defensive action seventeenth the pressureus success rate allowed.

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Speaker 2: So especially facing a team like Wolves that is so

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Speaker 2: lethal with their combination passing going forward to beat the

433
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 2: press to defense that I think is going to regress

434
00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 2: as we go forward throughout the season. And offensively, Crystals

435
00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,359
Speaker 2: hasn't really done much. I know they created they scored

436
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,200
Speaker 2: the two goals against Manchester City, but other than that,

437
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,000
Speaker 2: they really didn't do much for the entire match, even

438
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 2: tho they're up a man for forty five minutes. I

439
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,040
Speaker 2: mean they've only created ten point nine to six non

440
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 2: penalty expected goals through their first ten matches. They're twelfth

441
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,879
Speaker 2: in big scoring chances seventeenth and shots per ninety so like,

442
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 2: how are they going to create chances against the Wolves

443
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 2: defense that is second and non penalty expected goals allowed

444
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 2: and has lowed only six big scoring chances this season.

445
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,399
Speaker 2: You know, Wolves doesn't press a ton, but when they do,

446
00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:28,200
Speaker 2: they're absolutely lethal. They're number one in pressure success rate,

447
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,840
Speaker 2: while Crystal Palace is middle of the road against pressure.

448
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:33,880
Speaker 2: So I have Wolves projected at plus one sixty four

449
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:36,000
Speaker 2: as a slight favored in this one. So I don't

450
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 2: understand why they're they're underdogs, so I love their drawn

451
00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 2: a bet line plus one twenty. I'm definitely going to

452
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:43,919
Speaker 2: play the money line on Wolves, and I wonder if

453
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 2: this is going to be a situation where money will

454
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,360
Speaker 2: come in on Wolverhampton. I would say that you're probably

455
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:50,880
Speaker 2: better off betting this one sooner.

456
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 1: Rather than later. If you're going to be on Wolves, Anthony,

457
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 1: how do you see this one playing out?

458
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,680
Speaker 3: Yeah? I have a lot on this game in terms

459
00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 3: of action that I'm going to be getting down to start.

460
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 3: I'll agree with both of you on Wolves. I've got

461
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:04,479
Speaker 3: them draw, no bet. I bet that as soon as

462
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 3: it opened. I saw it right before kickoff against Everton,

463
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 3: grabbed some plus one twenty on the draw. No bet line.

464
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 3: Really like that. Agree with BJ. I project Wolves as

465
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:18,439
Speaker 3: a tiny, tiny favorite minus one one, so pretty much

466
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 3: toss up, so I'll take the plus one twenty. There

467
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 3: bj mentioned this, Does anybody really believe that Palace and

468
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 3: Wolves are going to finish the season top six defensively?

469
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 2: No?

470
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 3: And so you know, Wolves have not played a particularly

471
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 3: difficult schedule of attacks. They have not played man City,

472
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,160
Speaker 3: they have not played Chelsea, they have not played west Ham,

473
00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:39,959
Speaker 3: they have not played Liverpool. So the tougher games are

474
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 3: coming for this Wolves team. Palace, when they've played any

475
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 3: you know what I would consider above average to good attacks,

476
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 3: they've looked significantly worse than they have. I think the

477
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 3: biggest improvement for them has come in games where they've

478
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 3: played against some of the worst teams that they're supposed

479
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:57,439
Speaker 3: to be better than, and they've been better than them.

480
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 3: But they conceded almost too expected Arsenal. There were some

481
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,880
Speaker 3: flukes in that got lucky in the sense that man

482
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:05,919
Speaker 3: said he got a red card, which you know, blunts

483
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 3: the kind of the attacking numbers there. They got Tottenham

484
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,639
Speaker 3: in a really good spot where Tottenham was missing multiple

485
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 3: key starters. So they've had a lot of benefits in

486
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 3: their scheduling as well. And so I also like over

487
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:19,280
Speaker 3: two and a quarter goals or both teams to score.

488
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 3: You could play the both of you won. I think

489
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,159
Speaker 3: this game is going to be more open than the

490
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,719
Speaker 3: Wolves Palace games of the past, and I think it's

491
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:27,399
Speaker 3: going to be a very back and forth affair. And

492
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 3: so you know, some combination of both teams to score

493
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:31,920
Speaker 3: or you could take the over two and a quarter

494
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:33,919
Speaker 3: goals is what I like in terms of the total.

495
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:35,920
Speaker 3: And I'm going to be playing Wolves on the drawing

496
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:37,679
Speaker 3: o bet line a plus one twenty, so a lot

497
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 3: of action. This one is going to probably swing the weekend,

498
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 3: and so we'll see how it goes.

499
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 1: You can argue that that Wolves or Palace at this

500
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,159
Speaker 1: point right now are the New Brighton. And speaking of

501
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 1: the Old Brighton, there minus one sixty at home against

502
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 1: Newcastle plus four seventy five the draw plus two ninety.

503
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 1: This is the one point thirty pm kickoff on Saturday.

504
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 1: Newcastle right now is plus one tend to be relegated.

505
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 1: We say it all the time. It's fun fodder. It

506
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 1: would just be so funny if maybe some karmic retribution,

507
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 1: if Newcastle gets relegated and the Saudi Arabian Prince has

508
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 1: to deal with a cold night in Luton or something

509
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 1: next year, rather than the Premier League wonders that he

510
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,880
Speaker 1: was thinking of. I think Brighton is worth a bet

511
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 1: to on a blowout just because this Newcastle team, the

512
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,360
Speaker 1: numbers are bad and there's a narrative issue here too, Right,

513
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 1: these players know that they are going to be not

514
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 1: playing for this team, maybe as soon as January. They

515
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: know that this coach isn't going to be coaching this

516
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 1: team it maybe as soon as after the international break.

517
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 1: So why would you outside of pride and trying to

518
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,320
Speaker 1: hitch on with like another team or something. You know,

519
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 1: what are you playing for if you're Newcastle? Like, I

520
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 1: think an early goal from Brighton just all of a sudden,

521
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 1: this this game is gonna blow up. So I'm gonna

522
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 1: keep doing it. I want to bet against this Newcastle

523
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 1: team as much as I can. Obviously you're laying big

524
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 1: prices to do it, but i'd much other chase you know,

525
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 1: Brighton minus one perhaps or Brighton minus to whatever you

526
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 1: want to do. I think that's the way to go

527
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 1: nowhere else it's plus money Brighton minus one. So that's

528
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: where I'm heading. Going back to the Seagulls after an

529
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 1: impressive performance at Liverpool last weekend. BJ what about you?

530
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 2: Yeah? Five thirty eight has Newcastle at sixty one percent

531
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 2: to get relegated, So the minus one ten actually has

532
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,159
Speaker 2: some value right now. But I totally agree with you

533
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 2: Brighton minus one and plus one twenty five. We saw

534
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 2: the difference that Basuma and and Waypou playing together makes

535
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 2: when they started against Liverpool. They're pressing makes a load

536
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 2: of a difference. It really helps Brighton get going on

537
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 2: the counter tack. They made them look just like the

538
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 2: team we all fell in love with last season, and

539
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 2: this is another situation where I think they're just gonna

540
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 2: be able to thrash Newcastle's defense. Newcastle in transition has

541
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 2: been horrible. They've allowed the most expected goals in the

542
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 2: Premier League. They've allowed twenty big scoring chances. They're allowing

543
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 2: sixteen shots per ninety all of that is dead last

544
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 2: in the Premier League. They've also spent three hundred and

545
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 2: twelve minutes this season behind by at least one goal,

546
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:57,439
Speaker 2: which is the most outside of Norwich. And when they're behind,

547
00:23:57,680 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 2: they're allowing one point five to three expected goals per

548
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 2: ninety minutes. So even though Brighton's offense hasn't been that great.

549
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 2: I mean their nineteenth and non penalty expected goals, so

550
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 2: they're not creating like they were last year. Newcastle's defense

551
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 2: is very easy to break down and once they get ahead,

552
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to press them and get going forward.

553
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 2: Because offensively Newcastle hasn't been great at all. Their last

554
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 2: four matches only two point four expected goals created against Chelsea, Tottenham,

555
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 2: Wolves and Crystal Palace. Brighton is top ten and non

556
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 2: penalty expected goals allowed. But what I love about most

557
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 2: about this matchup is Brighton's press is incredible. Newcastle is

558
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 2: one of the worst teams in the Premier Leage against

559
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 2: the press, so this one could get out of hand

560
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:37,640
Speaker 2: very quickly at the American Express Community Stadium and they're

561
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 2: over in beautiful seaside Brighton. I love the Seagulls minus

562
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 2: one at plus one twenty five. I have there spread

563
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 2: projected at minus point nine to five, so I think

564
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,400
Speaker 2: you're getting a decent amount of value on that plus

565
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: one twenty five. So I think this one is probably

566
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 2: going to be you know, we're maybe going to start

567
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 2: talking about is Newcastle really going to get relegated or

568
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 2: are they actually going to bring in a new, actual

569
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 2: high profile man, because right now no manager actually looks

570
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:03,479
Speaker 2: like they want to touch that job with a ten

571
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 2: foot pole. I mean, Lunaiamor said no, which was kind

572
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 2: of shocking to me for him to come out and

573
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 2: say no. So we'll see what happens going forward with Newcastle.

574
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 2: But yeah, I love Brighton minus one up plus one

575
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 2: twenty five.

576
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's just a team that's going to

577
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,680
Speaker 1: be fun to bet against. Newcastle also obviously, traveling from

578
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:20,920
Speaker 1: the northeast of England all the way down to the

579
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 1: south coast, it's just a real recipe for disaster. If

580
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 1: you don't want to play Brighton on the alternate lines

581
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,479
Speaker 1: or whatever, they're probably pretty good parlay piece as well

582
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 1: on the money line. I like this next game a

583
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 1: lot too, just from a narrative standpoint, because I can't

584
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 1: believe Arsenal or minus two fifty five against anybody there.

585
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 1: Home against Watford we're seven to one the draws plus

586
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 1: three ninety. I get that Arsenal is a much better

587
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: team than Watford and their home and they've been playing better,

588
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,160
Speaker 1: but who in their right mind would trust this team

589
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 1: enough to lay that kind of price bj can you no,

590
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 1: But I just.

591
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 2: Want to there's a narrative out there right now because

592
00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 2: you know, obviously in the analytics committee we look at

593
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 2: it expect goals, we look at expected gold differential. If

594
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 2: you pop up understat right now, you'll see Arsenals in

595
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:06,640
Speaker 2: sixth place and they have a negative four point five

596
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 2: expected gold differential regression regression, they're going to be terrible

597
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,239
Speaker 2: hold on. Their first three matches of the season were

598
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 2: really bad. They got thrashed by Chelsea City and Brentford.

599
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 2: But their last seven matches they've picked up seventeen points,

600
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 2: that's second most behind Chelsea in the Premier League. They

601
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 2: have a plus three point seven to three expected gold

602
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 2: differential in those matches. And when the difference is is

603
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 2: because Gabrielle and Ben White are the center back pairing,

604
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 2: which those two are either out or not playing together

605
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 2: for the first three matches. Since they've been together, only

606
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 2: one point zero three expected goals allowed per match for Arsenal.

607
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,399
Speaker 2: So this is a team that's going to improve. And

608
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 2: also Aaron Ramsdell has been the second best keeper in

609
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,120
Speaker 2: the Premier League. Is a plus two point two plus

610
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 2: minus for post shot expected gold differential it's second behind

611
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,639
Speaker 2: only obviously Edward Mendy for Chelsea. So I'm not going

612
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 2: to play Arsenal at this big of a price. I

613
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 2: think as we see going forward, if Arsenal teams played

614
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 2: this well, they're going to be overpriced and I'm going

615
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 2: to have to bet against them, which I don't enjoy doing.

616
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 2: But Watford's really bad. I know they scored five goals

617
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 2: against Everton, but they came back down to earth against Southampton.

618
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 2: They're dead last in the Premier League and non penalty

619
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 2: expectacles allowed fifteenth and shots allowed for ninety seventeenth in

620
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 2: box entries allowed, so this could be an Arsenal route.

621
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 2: Arsenal could struggle and fall and like they do a

622
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 2: lot against inferior opponents, so it's stay away from me.

623
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 2: I have Arsenal projected at minus twenty eighty four, but

624
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 2: I do think that Arsenal could potentially be a team

625
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 2: maybe to bet on. When they play better teams inferior opponents,

626
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 2: They're going to be overvalued every time because the name value.

627
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 2: But when they play upcoming they have a couple matches

628
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 2: against Chelsea and Manchester United, we could see them actually

629
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 2: get priced as a maybe have some value so to

630
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 2: pass for me. But I do think this Arsenal team

631
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 2: has turned a corner and they're going to start challenging

632
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 2: maybe for the top four.

633
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:45,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's the right way to look at

634
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: this one, right. It's almost like a watch and see

635
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,199
Speaker 1: kind of game. This is still a really young team too,

636
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,440
Speaker 1: that's playing for Arsenal, right, so there's spect to be

637
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 1: a top six team and you'll have players who are

638
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 1: you know, this is their first kind of real kick

639
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 1: at the can in play for a quote unquote you know,

640
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 1: elite Premier League club, So they will they have mistakes

641
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,360
Speaker 1: in them. But you did mention Aaron Ramsdale the whole

642
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,719
Speaker 1: soccer community always and big killer teded apology right now

643
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 1: because that move was lampooned and it seems like the

644
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,880
Speaker 1: kind of pundit tree or pundits out there. US two

645
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: like analysts are swinging and missing a lot more on

646
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 1: things like this, like with David Moys and Ramstill, and

647
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 1: this team is similar to United, a little bit of

648
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 1: a roller coaster. Anthony, do you have anything on this one?

649
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 3: Yeah? You know, if you're looking to play Arsenal, I'd

650
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 3: recommend a first half look instead of a second half.

651
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 1: Look.

652
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 3: The reason for that is Arsenal have actually in the

653
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 3: first twenty minutes of games, and Bija and I have

654
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 3: joked about this off pod. They've been the second third

655
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 3: best team in the league by expected goal difference. They've

656
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 3: come out firing in a lot of games. And I

657
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 3: know the samples are small, you can't read a ton

658
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 3: into it, but it is legitimate. I mean they've come

659
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 3: out hair on fire, pressing, winning a lot of balls

660
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 3: high up the pitch, turning that into good attacks and

661
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 3: then looking great dangerous to score from there. What has

662
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 3: happened when they've gotten leads And the reason I don't

663
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 3: like laying the goal in a half here is that

664
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 3: when they've got up two or three goals, they've sat

665
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 3: off quite a bit. They did it against Tottenham. Tottenham

666
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 3: kind of dominated the second half and for good reason,

667
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 3: they'd won the match, the match was over. The same

668
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 3: thing happened against Villa. Even if with the lead against

669
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 3: Palace they did not look that impressive. They blew the

670
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 3: lead Ultimately, when they've been up one, two or three

671
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 3: goals this year, they're actually in the bottom ten expected

672
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 3: goal difference. They're actually the second worst team went up

673
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 3: multiple goals, so I don't want Arsenal up to here

674
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 3: kind of just mosing around with the ball, conceding a

675
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 3: dumb goal and losing to one and a half. I

676
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 3: think if you're going to back Arsenal here, you've got

677
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 3: to take them in the first half on the money line,

678
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 3: expect them to come out, make an early statement and

679
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 3: then kind of sit. You could also look for a

680
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 3: potential live under as well.

681
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 2: Hey, we're still just trying to learn how to play

682
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 2: with the lead. Okay, it takes people time. We haven't

683
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 2: been in this position before, but you know, maybe those

684
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 2: things will change.

685
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 1: The managerial matchup's funny too, with Rinieri coming into town

686
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 1: take over the Squatford team. Who knows how long he'll

687
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 1: be in the job because Watford likes to flip their

688
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 1: managers every six matches or so. Right, let's move on

689
00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 1: nine am Sunday kickoff as well. This is leads there

690
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 1: plus one eighty at home against Leicester plus one fifty

691
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: the draws plus two fifty five. I'll take a pretty

692
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 1: heavy look at Leicester in this one. I haven't played

693
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 1: it yet. Thinking about it, I don't think leads should

694
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 1: be this short. Is the point like they did just win,

695
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 1: but they beat Norwich City to one, so it's not

696
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 1: like they're back or whatever. There certainly aren't raffine you

697
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 1: look good though. I mean they're gonna get results because

698
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 1: they do have enough talent and Bielsa his teams are

699
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 1: tough to play against, but this lesser team is their

700
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 1: offense continues to get better, So no way, I'm trusting

701
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 1: this Leads defense to get the stops needed and not

702
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 1: make the mistakes to beat a team that's this clinical

703
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 1: in front of goal. Anthony, what about you?

704
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 3: Yeah? Leicester City is actually one of my favorite bets

705
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 3: of the weekend. It's funny how anti we were an

706
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 3: anti Lester podcast early in the season. Now we're almost

707
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 3: a pro Leicester podcast. I think we've been backing them

708
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 3: a lot more recently, but we are most definitely and

709
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 3: anti Leads podcast. Leaves I am did not actually watch

710
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 3: Lee Leads Norwich match, but digging through the box after

711
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 3: the fact, very unimpressed their performance from Leads against. Some

712
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 3: are saying the worst team since Darby County. Well, if

713
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 3: that's the case, Leeds barely beating them and not looking

714
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 3: particularly impressive and doing so is a major red flag.

715
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 3: They're still having some injury issues as well, so I'm

716
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 3: not really looking to buy into this team at all,

717
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 3: and so I think this is underpriced. I've got Lester

718
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 3: minus one forty six on the drawing no bet line.

719
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 3: I've been low on leads all year though, so I

720
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 3: do take that into into consideration. But when you look

721
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 3: at this Lester attack, it's just been a straight trend

722
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 3: line upwards. We're seeing more Daca, We're seeing more Ianacho,

723
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 3: They've been contributing more. Madison, who's kind of been at

724
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 3: a form, has been playing less. Brendan Rodgers is tweaking

725
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 3: with the system a little bit, They're playing on the

726
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 3: counter more. All these things are things I like to see,

727
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 3: especially heading into a game against Leeds, who is going

728
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 3: to give Lester a lot of space to run into

729
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 3: and is going to allow them to get in behind

730
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 3: quite a bit as well. So Leicester City drawing a

731
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 3: bet minus one twenty one twenty five fine with me.

732
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 3: That's one of my favorite plays of the weekend.

733
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think when you're handicapping leads, you're looking at

734
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: their opponents saying how much is this offense capable of punishing?

735
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 1: At very poorest defense, and BJ I think you're going

736
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 1: to tell us that lesser is pretty capable of doing that.

737
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 2: Absolutely, a lesser team total over one and a half

738
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 2: at even money. We talked about it last pot, but

739
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 2: Lester's really turned a quarter offensively. They didn't score against Arsenal,

740
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 2: but they did create two point one expected goals. Since

741
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:28,480
Speaker 2: September twentieth, after they lost to Brighton, they've created nine

742
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 2: point one six expected goals in five matches. That's the

743
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 2: third best mark in the Premier League, behind only West

744
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 2: Ham and Liverpool. They'll be afforded a ton of space

745
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 2: going forward. It's a Leeds defense that's sixteenth and non

746
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 2: penalty expect goles allowed seventeenth and shots allowed for ninety Also,

747
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 2: when Brendan Rodgers went up against Marcelo Bielsa's Leads team

748
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 2: last year, they scored a combined five goals and created

749
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 2: five point one to eight expected goals in the two meetings.

750
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 2: So for one of the hot, hottest offenses, that is

751
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 2: an incredible counter attacking team. Against the Leeds high press,

752
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 2: they're going to be afforded tons of space. This is

753
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: a hort like Anthey mintioned. This is a horrible match

754
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 2: up for Leeds, who's really regressed. So I love less

755
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 2: your team total over one and a half at even

756
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 2: money in a game that probably won't be as wide open.

757
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 2: We got Tottenham visiting Everdon Spurs plus one fifty five

758
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,239
Speaker 2: road favorites Everdon plus two hundred on the money line

759
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 2: to Druss plus two fifteen another nine am kickoff on Sunday.

760
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 1: Spurs obviously have a new manager coming to town in

761
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 1: Antonio Conte. Everton they looked horrible in the last twenty

762
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 1: minutes against Watford, and then they looked even worse in

763
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: the first forty five minutes against Wolves, but then they

764
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 1: looked pretty good against Wolves in the second half. I

765
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: don't know which team's going to show up, but I

766
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 1: do think that this number on Tottenham is too short.

767
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 1: And I get there's gonna be a new manager bounce,

768
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 1: and there could be some you know, motivated players who

769
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 1: probably weren't too inspired to play for the sad Jedi

770
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 1: Nuno Aspiritosanto. But I think this Everdon team maybe is

771
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 1: a little undervalued, coming off of two performances that I

772
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 1: think people Yes, the Watford one was terrible, the Wolves

773
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 1: won they were even unexpected goals. The game state have

774
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,239
Speaker 1: a little bit to do with that perhaps, but they

775
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 1: really did look impressive in that second half, so I

776
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 1: think two to one is a good enough number to

777
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 1: get involved with Everton. Here, Anthony, I know you are

778
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 1: super excited to welcome Antonio Conte to North London, so

779
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 1: something tells me that you're going to be on the yids.

780
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 3: Here Rivaderce to new know Espirato Santo, Goodbye, Welcome Antonio Conte.

781
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 3: One of my favorite managers. You know, since I've been

782
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:31,239
Speaker 3: a fan of the sport we call football, somebody who

783
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 3: has won everywhere he's gone, somebody who has more importantly

784
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 3: improved the chances created and the chances allowed very quickly,

785
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,320
Speaker 3: the expected goals numbers at every club he's been to

786
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:46,359
Speaker 3: in the last decade. For whether it was Juve, whether

787
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 3: it was at Chelsea when he won the Premier League,

788
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 3: whether it was at inter Milan where he just ended

789
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 3: Juventus's run of Scudeto's. This guy has a system that

790
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 3: I actually think fits Tattenham really well. I wrote about

791
00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 3: this on the Action Network. He loved Emerson royalees right

792
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,760
Speaker 3: wing back. He wanted to inter Milan. He loved Tangy

793
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 3: and Dumbley as a center midfielder. He wanted him in

794
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 3: inter Milan. He's going to have to make some changes

795
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,320
Speaker 3: in personnel and Tottenham has to get better before I

796
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,800
Speaker 3: think they really challenge for Top four this year. I

797
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 3: think it might be a bridge too far. But this

798
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 3: weekend I think you're going to see a very inspired

799
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 3: Tottenham effort. I mean they have looked flat for the

800
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 3: last month and you know the reports out of the

801
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,760
Speaker 3: training where that they didn't really believe in a Spirito

802
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 3: Santo was actually senior players who went to chairman Daniel

803
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 3: Levy and said, look, we don't really believe in this guy.

804
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 3: He doesn't seem to have a plan in training and

805
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 3: it looked like they had no plan on the pitch too,

806
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:36,359
Speaker 3: in terms of how to progress the ball up the pitch.

807
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 3: Kante has an established, proven system. He's been training with

808
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 3: the team all week. They're going to actually get a

809
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 3: match on Thursday, which I think actually helps Tottenham in

810
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 3: this situation in the sense that they're going to be

811
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 3: able to kind of tinker around with it and get

812
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 3: a game under their belt in the Conte system and

813
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 3: start playing in the three five to two. The big

814
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 3: question mark and this is what is given me a

815
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 3: little bit of pause, is do I I think Harry

816
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 3: Kane is cooked? Is he in a bad run? Does

817
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 3: he not want to be at Tottenham? Or was it

818
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:06,399
Speaker 3: a new note thing and he's gonna play harder now.

819
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: I don't know the.

820
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 3: Answer to that. I think that's gonna be the one

821
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 3: lingering question we're gonna have to find out. I'm guessing

822
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 3: there's gonna be a new striker coming in as well.

823
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 3: But in terms of Tottenham's long and medium term prospects,

824
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 3: I love the move to get Conte. In the short term,

825
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,320
Speaker 3: I think they win on Sunday. We've talked about the

826
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 3: new manager bounce. Some of it is a little bit

827
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 3: over hyped because what happens is managers tend to get

828
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 3: sacked because teams are running unlucky. That's not really the

829
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 3: case with Tottenham. They were just bad. But when you

830
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 3: look at the collection of players in this Tottenham team,

831
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 3: they are better then their positioning. The table indicates they're

832
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 3: better than they're expected. Goals numbers indicates there will be

833
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 3: a regression coming and under a more solidified system they

834
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 3: should be able to pick apart an Everton team who

835
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:49,320
Speaker 3: I continue to not be impressed by and Michael and

836
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 3: I have. We've gone back and forth, and he cashed

837
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 3: a lot of Everton tickets early, near to his credit.

838
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 3: But they're starting to look a lot more like the

839
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 3: team I was expecting. No Calvert Lewin is blunting the

840
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,120
Speaker 3: attack a little bit and the defense is looking a

841
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 3: little bit thin right now. So I like Spurs. I

842
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,879
Speaker 3: grabbed the play early, but I still like the money

843
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 3: line here. I wouldn't look to the draw no bet

844
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 3: as much because it's a little bit steep and juice now.

845
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:16,479
Speaker 3: But contes in town and Tottenham is coming back. Sorry, BJ,

846
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:17,879
Speaker 3: that's fine.

847
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 1: You're right about the Everdent defense being thin. I think

848
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:23,359
Speaker 1: they've let six point eight expected goals in their last

849
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,399
Speaker 1: three matches. Those three matches were without Yery Mina, who's

850
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 1: their best center back. If he's back, I think that

851
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:31,360
Speaker 1: makes this evident number much more palatable. You also have

852
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 1: to worry about Luca Dean, who the past weekend at Wolves,

853
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 1: so there are evident injury issues, so you can definitely wait.

854
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 1: I think, just like you said, Anthony, like I think

855
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 1: there's going to be some more action to come on

856
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 1: Tottenham too, because of the Conte thing. So this number

857
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 1: on Everyden could keep going up, but I think two

858
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 1: to one are better. It's good enough for me. BJ

859
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,360
Speaker 1: Where are you going for one of the podcast Darby's

860
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 1: Everdent and Spurs.

861
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, you want to know how much a new manager

862
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 2: bump is? Well, Everton opened at plus one fifty and

863
00:37:57,760 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 2: out there two to one. I mean, I understand Antonio

864
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:01,719
Speaker 2: is one of the best managers in the world and

865
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 2: that he's going to bring in a system that's really

866
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 2: going to improve Harry Kane and Hun min Son and

867
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 2: the Tottenham attack. That's eighteenth and non penalty expecting goals

868
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 2: this season. But that's a little crazy for me. And

869
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 2: I don't really want to take this averaging team without

870
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 2: your amina because their defense is really bad. But if

871
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:20,760
Speaker 2: the Tottenham offensive numbers pick up with the Everton defensive

872
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 2: numbers being as bad as they are, I do think

873
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 2: we have a chance of seeing it over here because listen,

874
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 2: Everton they created one point nine to eight expected goals

875
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:28,799
Speaker 2: against Wolves. They look much better in the second half

876
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,800
Speaker 2: even without Dominique Calvert Lewin this season. In the seven matches,

877
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 2: Everton's created ten point nine to four expected goals well

878
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 2: Tottenham's defense in the last seven matches is allowed eleven

879
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 2: expected goals, so I think we have a chance potentially

880
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:43,720
Speaker 2: a high scoring game here. Interested to see what happens

881
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 2: on Thursday with Conte and the style he kind of plays.

882
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:48,800
Speaker 2: If it's more open or if it's more compact like

883
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 2: New played, we'll see, or I don't know who they're

884
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 2: playing him at fake eure up a conference league right now.

885
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 3: It's the Tests, the Dutch side who beats tall on

886
00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,040
Speaker 3: one nil two weeks ago, Chelsea.

887
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 2: The Chelsea loan club. Perfect, yes, but I have two

888
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 2: point seven goals projected for this one, so I do

889
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:07,399
Speaker 2: think there's a shot at over two and a half goals,

890
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 2: given how bad Avertons defense has been and how actually

891
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 2: good their offense has been without Dominique Calvert loaning there in,

892
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 2: Tottenham's offense should improve with contest, So over two and

893
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 2: a half goals at plus one five for me.

894
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:20,800
Speaker 1: It's funny when Rafiad beneath this took over for Everton.

895
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:22,880
Speaker 1: Everyone said he's going to get your organized, he's going

896
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 1: to improve your defense. If you actually ended up doing

897
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 1: kind of the opposite. Their offense is much better than

898
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 1: it was expected. To be even without Calvert Lewin and

899
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 1: their defense has been shambolic at times and they seem

900
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 1: to lose sight of the fundamentals, which is go figure.

901
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 1: It's impossible to predict sports. So here we are the

902
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 1: co main event, a afternoon kickoff on Sunday. West Ham

903
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 1: plus three eighty home underdogs Liverpool minus one forty five

904
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 1: the draw plus three twenty. These are two top four teams.

905
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 1: These are two of the four best teams in the

906
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:57,879
Speaker 1: Premier League right now, which is why I like west

907
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 1: Ham right This is a team at home nearly four

908
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,400
Speaker 1: to one, and yes, I do understand Liverpool. Look, I

909
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 1: bet against Liverpool a lot because I just think their

910
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 1: numbers are always overvalued. But they win a lot, so

911
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 1: I end up losing a lot of money on betting

912
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 1: against them. At some point maybe I'll stop doing that,

913
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:15,400
Speaker 1: but my self control is not at that maturity let yet,

914
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 1: and I can't stop betting this west Ham team, especially

915
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 1: at this price plus three eighty. This is a team

916
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:24,160
Speaker 1: that is basically top five in every metric we look at,

917
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 1: and we try to play on both offense and defense. Yes,

918
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 1: Liverpool's offense is a lot trickier to handle than most

919
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 1: of the other teams that west Ham has seen this season,

920
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 1: but this team is just really, really good. And when

921
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 1: they're playing a team like Liverpool, or they're playing a

922
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,439
Speaker 1: team like Chelsea or Manchester City, their number is gonna

923
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,320
Speaker 1: be inflated because they aren't they don't have the name recognition.

924
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 1: So I'm backing west Ham plus three eighty. I really

925
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 1: really like this bet. If you don't want to bet

926
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 1: the money line, I think you know if you want

927
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 1: to back them plus a goal or plus half a

928
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 1: goal or whatever, however however you want you want to

929
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 1: bet it. I know I tend to be much more

930
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 1: happy taking risks than the most folks, but I just

931
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 1: really can't look away from this number. BJ. What about you?

932
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 2: I agree? I love, love love this west Ham team,

933
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:09,520
Speaker 2: the way they're playing right now. Fourth and non penalty

934
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:11,839
Speaker 2: expected goals fifth and shots brandy and fourth and big

935
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 2: scoring chanceas. But what's huge in this matchup is they

936
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 2: are top five in offensive pass for defensive action and

937
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:20,720
Speaker 2: pressure success rate alout, which were two stats that Brighton

938
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:22,440
Speaker 2: was near the top in as well, and we saw

939
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 2: how they were able to handle Liverpool's high press and

940
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 2: go forward on the counter. Now Liverpool will have some

941
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:29,720
Speaker 2: of their midfielders back for Binho played in the Champions

942
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:31,880
Speaker 2: League today. It looks like the Ago is probable to

943
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:35,400
Speaker 2: play on Saturday, So the handicap of Liverpool is midfield

944
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 2: not being able to handle Thomas Seychek and Dekland. Rice

945
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 2: is kind of out the window. But these two are

946
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 2: still maybe one of the best defensive midfield pairing in

947
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 2: the entire Premier League right now. They play really well

948
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 2: off each other, Soychik is kind of the guy who

949
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 2: likes to go forward and press a lot more, while

950
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 2: Rice kind of stays back and is that last ditch

951
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:53,359
Speaker 2: effort before you get to the back line. Declan Rice

952
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 2: this season is basically in He's in the form of

953
00:41:56,000 --> 00:42:02,280
Speaker 2: his life. He is sixth in interceptions and tackles this season.

954
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 3: Well.

955
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 2: Sychek has the sixth best pressure success rate for players

956
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 2: who have over one hundred pressures this year. But the

957
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 2: question is is west can west Ham's backline hold up

958
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 2: against Liverpool's attack, which you know wasn't great that against

959
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 2: Brighton this past weekend they only created one point three

960
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 2: seven expected goals. They obviously got the red card and

961
00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 2: was able to thrash Athletti co Madrid. We'll see if

962
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:26,880
Speaker 2: west Ham's defense can hold up. They are, you know,

963
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 2: near the top and pretty much every defensive metric. But

964
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 2: I do like west Ham plus half a goal, which

965
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:33,360
Speaker 2: is currently at plus one twenty. The line of Liverpool

966
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 2: is kind of crashing. They opened around minus one sixty

967
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 2: and they're already down to minus one forty, so it

968
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 2: looks like there is some west Ham money coming in.

969
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:41,920
Speaker 2: It looks like people do believe in the Hammers, so

970
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 2: it might be a good idea to grab west Ham. Now,

971
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 2: a lot of projection models out there Liverpool closer to

972
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 2: fifty percent. I only have them at plus one oh nine,

973
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 2: so I love west Ham plus half a goal at

974
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 2: plus one twenty.

975
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 1: That's a great match too to send the Premier League

976
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 1: into the international break. All right, we'll move on from

977
00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 1: England to Germany the bundes Liga. My favorite bet in

978
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 1: Germany this week is Union Berlin. They're taking on Cologne

979
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 1: Sunday eleven thirty am, kickoff, Berlin plus two thirty on

980
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 1: the money line. Their defense has been good. I like

981
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 1: to back good defenses at big numbers, so yes, the

982
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:17,760
Speaker 1: Clone offense is good, but I think that this Berlin

983
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 1: defense can handle it, and you're probably going to score

984
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:24,239
Speaker 1: against this defense. No clean sheets for Clone in the

985
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 1: Bundesliga yet this season. So as mediocre and pedestrian as

986
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:32,320
Speaker 1: Junion Berlin's offenses, I'll take a step here at a

987
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 1: decent number BJ what about you, Yeah.

988
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 2: Let's go Hurth of Berlin Leverkusen under two and a

989
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 2: half goals at plus one ten Hurder. Berlin's one of

990
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,319
Speaker 2: the worst offenses in Germany, creating only one point one

991
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:44,840
Speaker 2: six expected goals per match. They're also dead last and

992
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 2: shots per ninety box entries and crosses completed into the

993
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:50,879
Speaker 2: penalty area. But they've actually been pretty good defensively. Their

994
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 2: numbers are a little inflated because they have a five

995
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:54,840
Speaker 2: to zero loss to Byron six to SOHO lost RBIY Leipsig,

996
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 2: but in their last four matches against Freiburg, frank Bert

997
00:43:57,239 --> 00:44:02,439
Speaker 2: Hoffenheim and Freiberg there only allowed three point eight nine

998
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 2: expected goals and three of those four offenses are head

999
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:08,239
Speaker 2: of Leverkusen unexpected goals. Because we've talked about it, I

1000
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 2: think at nauseum and you guys are probably sick of

1001
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 2: hearing about it. But Leverkusen's offense is overrated. They've scored

1002
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,439
Speaker 2: twenty three goals off of fifteen point one eight expected goals.

1003
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 2: They're tenth in shots for ninety sixteenth in big scoring chances,

1004
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 2: and we saw a lot of that regression come against

1005
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 2: Wolfberg this past weekend. The only created point six y

1006
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:27,399
Speaker 2: one non penalty expected goals. I only have two point

1007
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 2: three to four goals projected for this match, so I

1008
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:31,960
Speaker 2: think there's some value on under two and a half

1009
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 2: goals at plus one ten. But hey, these teams will

1010
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 2: probably score like four goals off of like one point

1011
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 2: two expected goals and we'll all have our head in

1012
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:42,239
Speaker 2: our head in our hands. But whatever, let's take under

1013
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:43,440
Speaker 2: two and a half goals at plus one ten.

1014
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 1: Anthony, what's your favorite bet in Germany? This weekend?

1015
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 3: It was actually poetic seeing Leverkusen miss a stoppage time

1016
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 3: penalty that was irrelevant to the result. The game was over,

1017
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 3: but I did. I did crack a smile, shed a tear,

1018
00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 3: cashed a Leverkusen fade. It was like hitting the lottery

1019
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:04,320
Speaker 3: twice in a row. I am passing on my Leverkusen

1020
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:05,960
Speaker 3: fade for now. I may end up actually playing hur

1021
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:07,920
Speaker 3: at the two agree with bj on that one. I'm

1022
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 3: looking at Wolfsburg. My guy, Florian Koltfeldt is in van

1023
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 3: Bommel is out a disastrous run for him. After a

1024
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 3: hot start. They were a mess. The team was falling apart.

1025
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:20,920
Speaker 3: They were a little bit unlucky. They were undperforming their

1026
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:22,759
Speaker 3: expected goals in front of net by quite a bit.

1027
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 3: But Lutz Vegast, my guy, my striker, is back in

1028
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 3: the lineup. He played really well. He didn't get a goal,

1029
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 3: but he played really well in the Champions League against Salzburg.

1030
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:34,799
Speaker 3: Osburg is off. I mean, they are the worst team

1031
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 3: by expected goals allowed in the Bundesliga. Their they play

1032
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 3: a bit of a counter attacking style, that an extreme

1033
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:44,280
Speaker 3: counter attacking style, but they're conceding lots of good chances

1034
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:48,880
Speaker 3: and Wolfsburg's defense is excellent at preventing big scoring chances.

1035
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 3: That's where Osburg will look to get at this Wolfsburg team.

1036
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:53,479
Speaker 3: I'm not sure how they do it, but I'm riding

1037
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 3: the Coltfeldt train. He was at Verte Bremen the last

1038
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 3: few years. Got relegated with Verte Bremen, but back to

1039
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:00,840
Speaker 3: back years they were underperforming their spa to goals like

1040
00:46:01,000 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 3: quite a bit. They should not have been relegated. A

1041
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:06,439
Speaker 3: little unlucky. There an underrated manager making some changes, making

1042
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 3: some improvements. I got a Wolfsburg team who's coming for

1043
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 3: some positive aggression. I'm backing them again minus one, minus

1044
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 3: one ten taking a favorite in the Bundesliga. What can

1045
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 3: go wrong?

1046
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 1: He's got a he wears a turtleneck. Really well, that gentleman,

1047
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,879
Speaker 1: Let's travel south to Italy, Anthony. I'll go right back

1048
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 1: to you for your favorite bet in Syria this weekend.

1049
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:28,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go to the Milan Derby. It's the game

1050
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 3: of the weekend. Some will say the game of the

1051
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:34,320
Speaker 3: year in Syria. Inter Milan AC Milan. A lot of

1052
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 3: Milan's being played, but the original Milan, the actual Milan,

1053
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 3: I should say, is overrated, still in the market, and

1054
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:44,919
Speaker 3: we're getting, you know, a look at you know, after

1055
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 3: about ten matches you can kind of draw some conclusions.

1056
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:50,319
Speaker 3: How is AC Milan different this year than last year?

1057
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:53,720
Speaker 3: Their defense is improved. For Kayo Tamori has been excellent

1058
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:57,320
Speaker 3: in the defensive line. Mike Manions out injured, but the

1059
00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:00,839
Speaker 3: backup goalie is done a relatively solid job at shotstop keeping.

1060
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 3: This defense pretty solid and Ishbiel Beniser their best defensive midfielder,

1061
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:06,879
Speaker 3: one of the more underrated defensive midfielders in the world,

1062
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:08,839
Speaker 3: got a lot of buzz for some big clubs until

1063
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 3: he had an injury issue last year. He's been healthier,

1064
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:14,200
Speaker 3: which has made this Milan defense much better going up

1065
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 3: against inter who started the year blazing hot in attack

1066
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 3: and have cooled off considerably since then. They're still one

1067
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:25,360
Speaker 3: of the best attacks in Syria, but they're not quite

1068
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:28,879
Speaker 3: as good as the numbers indicate. They have overperformed quite

1069
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:31,400
Speaker 3: a bit early in the season. I don't mind splitting

1070
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:33,359
Speaker 3: a unit here on the first half under one point

1071
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 3: twenty five and the full game under three. That's probably

1072
00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:37,800
Speaker 3: where I'll end up being on this game. Have to

1073
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:40,320
Speaker 3: dig a little bit more into the numbers. But Milan's

1074
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 3: defense trending up, inter Milan's offense trending down. I like

1075
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:47,400
Speaker 3: under three minus one thirty here the actual number on

1076
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 3: inter Milan. They have scored twenty eight goals from twenty

1077
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 3: one expected, so still some regression going to be coming there.

1078
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 3: Atara Martinez career average finisher, same with Edwin Jeco. No

1079
00:47:57,600 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 3: real reason they should be overperforming by this much, so

1080
00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 3: I think this is going to be a KG low

1081
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:03,279
Speaker 3: scoring affair where a point is good for both teams

1082
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 3: given their current situations in the table.

1083
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:07,760
Speaker 1: At BJ, what is your favorite bet in Syria?

1084
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Juventus minus one fifty. I think it's

1085
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:12,800
Speaker 2: just a perfect buy low spot for them. They obviously

1086
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 2: looked fantastic in the Champions League. We're all on Zene,

1087
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:18,839
Speaker 2: but they looked fantastic against them on Wednesday. They're due

1088
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 2: for some positive aggression. Offensively, They've created nineteen point zero

1089
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:24,399
Speaker 2: one expected goals and I've only scored fifteen. And listen,

1090
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 2: I've been against Fiorentina quite a bit this season, but

1091
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 2: they have been steadily improving. Their defense is fourth and

1092
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:34,360
Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals allowed, they're first and shots per

1093
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:37,320
Speaker 2: ninety allowed, their first in box entries allowed. But in

1094
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:39,960
Speaker 2: their big four, biggest four matches of the Syrias season

1095
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:44,040
Speaker 2: against Roma, Atalanta, inter Anapoli, they were absolutely thrashed nine

1096
00:48:44,040 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 2: point two nine expected goals allowed in those four matches.

1097
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:49,359
Speaker 2: So basically they're just dominating inferior opponents. So I need

1098
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 2: to know mark that down and I take one of

1099
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:53,799
Speaker 2: these teams like Specy at five to one against them.

1100
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 2: Maybe I should just move on with my life and

1101
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:57,279
Speaker 2: not take it. But as the stands for this match,

1102
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:00,319
Speaker 2: Fiorentina is not that great away from home to two

1103
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 2: point nine to five non penalty expected goal differential and

1104
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:04,759
Speaker 2: six matches, I've only created three point six to one

1105
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:08,400
Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals in those matches, and also seven

1106
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 2: of Fiorentina's five goals this season have come off of

1107
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:13,840
Speaker 2: penalties or set pieces, and Juventus defensively is still pretty

1108
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 2: good six the non penalty expected goals allowed seventh and

1109
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 2: shots for ninety allowed. I have Uventus projected at minus

1110
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:21,880
Speaker 2: two twenty one, so I think this is a good

1111
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:26,319
Speaker 2: by low spot against an offense that is pretty much

1112
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 2: only built on scoring off of set pieces. So Juventus

1113
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:30,319
Speaker 2: minus one to fifty is my pick.

1114
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:33,279
Speaker 1: All right, We'll move on to La Liga and for

1115
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 1: the first time in ages, I won't be betting the

1116
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 1: Athletic Gobao draw. Instead, I'll be backing Riassociate Dodd plus

1117
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 1: one forty at Osasuna on Sunday at twelve thirty associate

1118
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:48,960
Speaker 1: dot top four defense. Osasuna terrible offense. So I'll just

1119
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:51,120
Speaker 1: trust the numbers and think that this is a good

1120
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 1: number on a really good team in Spain that we

1121
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:55,600
Speaker 1: all like. I'll probably end up betting the Athletic Bobou

1122
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 1: draw anyways, Anthony, what about you?

1123
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:02,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, great cash on the Billboo draw last weekend. Down

1124
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:06,320
Speaker 3: a man in stoppage time, no problem for them. But

1125
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:08,840
Speaker 3: I'm looking at the Celta Ego Barcelona game. One of

1126
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 3: these times Barcelona's offense is going to explode. Like They're

1127
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 3: so close on a lot of chances to really get

1128
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:19,400
Speaker 3: some goals. They've missed a ton of big chances, especially recently.

1129
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 3: In we go back to El Classico, we go back

1130
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:26,760
Speaker 3: to the miss penalty against Ryovacano and then against Dinamo

1131
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:29,440
Speaker 3: Kiev in the Champions League. They hit the post a

1132
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 3: couple of times. They had a couple other big chances.

1133
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:35,080
Speaker 3: Ansufazi is healthy and firing, looks like he's in really

1134
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 3: good form right now. Memphis to Pie is still one

1135
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 3: of the best ball progressing and creators in the world,

1136
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:44,239
Speaker 3: and Aguero is probably not gonna play, which at this

1137
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 3: point in his career is probably in that positive and

1138
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:50,840
Speaker 3: so I think this is a Barcelona attack that is

1139
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:54,200
Speaker 3: due for some positive aggression. They're underperforming their expected goals,

1140
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:57,880
Speaker 3: which Barcelona has almost never done, partly because they had

1141
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 3: Lionel Messi was the greatest finisher ever. But they still

1142
00:51:00,560 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 3: have other guys who I expect them to run marginally

1143
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:07,040
Speaker 3: above you know, five percent above their expected goals numbers

1144
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 3: in attack. Defensively, there are still some concerns in transition,

1145
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:12,799
Speaker 3: which is where celt of Ego has kind of been

1146
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:14,839
Speaker 3: able to make, you know, a bit of a living

1147
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:17,759
Speaker 3: in terms of you know, applying some pressure, winning the

1148
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 3: ball I have to pitch, turning that into a quick attack.

1149
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 3: That's an area where I think Barcelona is still vulnerable.

1150
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 3: So eventually the Barsai explosion is coming. I think they're

1151
00:51:25,600 --> 00:51:28,680
Speaker 3: also still vulnerable defensively. So over two and a half

1152
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:31,880
Speaker 3: goals is minus one thirty. That's where I'm looking here

1153
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 3: in this game. You can take it over two and

1154
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 3: a three quarters if you want to, don't want to

1155
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:39,640
Speaker 3: pay the juice, but that's where I'm looking and hopefully,

1156
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 3: you know, back in this Barsa team again. Here we

1157
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:46,040
Speaker 3: are doing well in the Champions League, going to eventually

1158
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:47,799
Speaker 3: improve in La Liga.

1159
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 1: Barcelona is nine points a drift of Associated Dad in

1160
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 1: La Liga and they're fourteen to one, So I don't

1161
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:56,359
Speaker 1: know if that's worth a bet, but it's just something

1162
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 1: to keep in mind. If you are a Barsa believer

1163
00:51:58,640 --> 00:52:01,880
Speaker 1: and BJ Cunningham I think you are a Barsa believer,

1164
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:03,360
Speaker 1: a Barsa buyer.

1165
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:06,120
Speaker 2: This weekend, yeah, it's time to buy low on Barcelona.

1166
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 2: Just Anthony hit the nail on pretty much. I feel

1167
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 2: like he just took all my notes right off my

1168
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:12,319
Speaker 2: page for this whole thing. But yeah, the six point

1169
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 2: seven expected goals created in those last three La Liga matches,

1170
00:52:16,239 --> 00:52:18,480
Speaker 2: only two put in the back of the net. Celta

1171
00:52:18,560 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 2: Vigo offensively hasn't been that great this season. Like I

1172
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:23,840
Speaker 2: agree with Anthony, might be able to do something in transition,

1173
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 2: but only eleven point six to nine non penalty expected

1174
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:28,320
Speaker 2: goals in twelve matches. They only created point six to

1175
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 2: one against a rye about a condo team that yielded

1176
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:33,080
Speaker 2: two point nine to seven expect goals to Barcelona. It's

1177
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 2: also a Celta ego team that's really bad against pressure.

1178
00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:38,479
Speaker 2: Their fifteenth in pressure success rate in Barcelona is number

1179
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:41,360
Speaker 2: one in pressing this season in La Liga. So I

1180
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:43,719
Speaker 2: have Barcelona projected at minus one twenty six. So at

1181
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:45,600
Speaker 2: plus one oh five, I think it's a good by low.

1182
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:47,719
Speaker 1: Spot for them, all right, and we'll go right back

1183
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 1: to BJ Cunningham, iowa's foremost league oh expert. What is

1184
00:52:52,640 --> 00:52:54,440
Speaker 1: your favorite bet in France this weekend?

1185
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 2: Let's go back to LIL They catch the plus one

1186
00:52:57,160 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 2: and a half against PSG last week. They look really

1187
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:02,359
Speaker 2: like the better team in the first half and they

1188
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 2: kind of just fell apart at the end. But this

1189
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,840
Speaker 2: is still a really good team. They just beat a

1190
00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 2: very very good Sevia team on the road in the

1191
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:12,560
Speaker 2: Champions League on Wednesday, and this is another situation where

1192
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:15,120
Speaker 2: I think that they're undervalued based on their place in

1193
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 2: the table. They're averaging one point five to six expected

1194
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:19,440
Speaker 2: goals for match, that's fourth in league gun and more

1195
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:22,480
Speaker 2: than they averaged during their entitled campaign last year their

1196
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 2: third and big scoring chances, and their defense is still

1197
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:29,520
Speaker 2: playing at a extremely high level. They're fourth in non

1198
00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 2: penalty expected goals allowed, so the four to four to

1199
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:34,360
Speaker 2: two is still working and this angers team that they're playing.

1200
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:36,239
Speaker 2: The reason that they started out so hot and the

1201
00:53:36,280 --> 00:53:38,280
Speaker 2: reason they're in eighth place is because of their defense.

1202
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:40,960
Speaker 2: They're top four and non penalty expected goles allowed, shots

1203
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:43,320
Speaker 2: for ninety and big scoring tants allowed, but their offense

1204
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:47,520
Speaker 2: has really been struggling as late. They are fifteenth in

1205
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:50,759
Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals, eighteenth in box entries, and they're

1206
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:54,480
Speaker 2: also eighteenth in pressure success rate allowed. So Lil's four

1207
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:55,919
Speaker 2: to four to two press should be able to create

1208
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:58,440
Speaker 2: some havoc. I have little projected at minus one fifty five,

1209
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:00,719
Speaker 2: so I think there's still a little value on them

1210
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:02,160
Speaker 2: at minus one twenty five.

1211
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:05,040
Speaker 1: And with that we'll move on to our favorite portion

1212
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:07,640
Speaker 1: of the program. I like to warrant all the listeners

1213
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:10,399
Speaker 1: that these bets are not for the fan of heart.

1214
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:13,520
Speaker 1: Of course, these are long shots underdogs for reason. My

1215
00:54:13,640 --> 00:54:16,839
Speaker 1: favorite underdog this weekend is west Ham. I spoke at

1216
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 1: length about them. I think just if you covered up

1217
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 1: the names, put the numbers next to each other, you'd

1218
00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:24,279
Speaker 1: say these two teams, west Ham and Liverpool are a

1219
00:54:24,320 --> 00:54:27,399
Speaker 1: lot closer than this plus three to eighty money line

1220
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 1: at home suggests. So I'll take the Hammers and pass

1221
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:32,880
Speaker 1: it over to you, Anthony.

1222
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:34,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have not won to bet on this team

1223
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:39,439
Speaker 3: all season, so we're gonna try again. Groidtherir Firth plus

1224
00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:42,920
Speaker 3: two to eighty in the Bundesliga, there's not a ton

1225
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 3: to like about this group. Groid the fir team. They

1226
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:47,560
Speaker 3: do have some positive aggression coming. They've been really really

1227
00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:50,520
Speaker 3: bad at taking their chances. In terms of their chance

1228
00:54:50,560 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 3: conversion rate is the lowest in the Bundesliga, second lowest

1229
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:55,239
Speaker 3: Wolfsburg and let us a trend there our teams I'm

1230
00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:58,520
Speaker 3: betting on this weekend. Groidther Firth doesn't have a lot

1231
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:00,200
Speaker 3: to like, but they did show a lot of fight.

1232
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:04,360
Speaker 3: They had some serious COVID issues last week against Freiburg,

1233
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:06,560
Speaker 3: conceded a couple of goals, but the match was relatively

1234
00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 3: even for a large stretches of the match. They did

1235
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 3: get on the scoreboard. Ultimately, I think we're dealing with

1236
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 3: a Frankfurt team that has had major issues. The reporting

1237
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:18,120
Speaker 3: out of preseason training camp was that Oliver Glasner was

1238
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:20,399
Speaker 3: having a lot of issues with Frankfurt this year. I'm

1239
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 3: kind of kicking myself for not fading them more. Frankfort

1240
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 3: had a lot of issues coming into the year. They

1241
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:28,359
Speaker 3: have performed really poorly, perhaps the worst relative to expectations

1242
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:30,800
Speaker 3: in the entire league, since losing Addie Hooter, their manager

1243
00:55:30,880 --> 00:55:33,560
Speaker 3: from last season. They also lost Andre Silva, their main striker.

1244
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 3: Production upfront has been really, really bad. They just should

1245
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:39,000
Speaker 3: not be this big of a favorite against any team

1246
00:55:39,040 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 3: in the league on the road. So you gotta play

1247
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 3: the number I make frankfort plus one fifty two. So

1248
00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 3: I'm going to play the number here on groidther Firth

1249
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:50,560
Speaker 3: on the money line at plus two sixty plus two

1250
00:55:50,600 --> 00:55:52,600
Speaker 3: eighty whatever you can find out there. Anything over two

1251
00:55:52,680 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 3: forty is gonna be worth a look here on groiter Firth.

1252
00:55:56,800 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go Wolves, who is somehow north of two

1253
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:02,960
Speaker 2: to one at Crystal Palace. I really don't understand why

1254
00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:06,279
Speaker 2: they're underdogs here. Crystal Palace has been good defensively, only

1255
00:56:06,280 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 2: allowing one point one to one non penalty expected goals

1256
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:11,880
Speaker 2: per matched, but there are some concerning things with their defense.

1257
00:56:11,920 --> 00:56:14,560
Speaker 2: Eleventh in box entry is allowed, sixteenth and crosses completed

1258
00:56:14,600 --> 00:56:17,320
Speaker 2: in their own penalty area, twelfth in progressive passes allowed,

1259
00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:20,080
Speaker 2: and they press a ton now under Patrick Vieira, but

1260
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:23,719
Speaker 2: there are only fourteenth and passes per defensive action and

1261
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:26,680
Speaker 2: seventeenth and precious success rate. So facing a team like

1262
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:28,960
Speaker 2: Wolves who is just gonna pick them apart with their

1263
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:33,120
Speaker 2: combination passing going forward against the press is a terrible matchup,

1264
00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 2: and Crystal Palace hasn't really done much going forward. Offensively.

1265
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:39,760
Speaker 2: They're sixteenth in non penalty expected goals seventeenth and shots

1266
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:41,360
Speaker 2: per ninety, so I don't really know how they're going

1267
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 2: to create a ton of chances against a Wolves defense

1268
00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:45,839
Speaker 2: that's second and non penalty expected goals allowed, and it's

1269
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:49,160
Speaker 2: only allowed six big scoring chances this season. So I

1270
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:52,640
Speaker 2: have Wolves projected as a small favorite at plus one

1271
00:56:52,760 --> 00:56:55,520
Speaker 2: sixty four, So give me them a met plus two

1272
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:57,720
Speaker 2: oh five. Let's hope we don't get another stoppage time penalty.

1273
00:56:58,320 --> 00:57:01,800
Speaker 1: If you wrap all three of those underdogs together and parlayam,

1274
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:05,080
Speaker 1: it's fifty two to one. That's just about what the

1275
00:57:05,160 --> 00:57:07,759
Speaker 1: Dallas Stars are to win the Stanley Cup. So let's

1276
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:11,040
Speaker 1: move on to the final portion of the program, our

1277
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:14,720
Speaker 1: favorite bets in the Premier League for this weekend. Bjay

1278
00:57:15,280 --> 00:57:18,120
Speaker 1: will start with you where are you looking? Yeah?

1279
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 2: Lester team total over one and a half at even money.

1280
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 2: We talked about how Lester has basically turned a corner offensively,

1281
00:57:23,840 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 2: nine point one six expected goals in their last five matches,

1282
00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:29,000
Speaker 2: and I know they didn't score against Arsenal, but they

1283
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 2: still created two point one expected goals. There's going to

1284
00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:34,120
Speaker 2: be a ton of space going forward against mar Marcello

1285
00:57:34,160 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 2: Bielsa's side when Brendan Rodgers and Lester face leads. Last season,

1286
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 2: they scored a combined five goals and created five point

1287
00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 2: one eight expected goals in the two meetings. So for

1288
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:45,200
Speaker 2: one of the hottest offenses that's going up against the

1289
00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:48,120
Speaker 2: defense that's really regressed from last season, leads to seventeenth

1290
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:51,520
Speaker 2: to non penalty expected goals. I love Lester over one

1291
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 2: and a half goals.

1292
00:57:52,600 --> 00:57:55,200
Speaker 1: At even money, Anthony, what's your favorite bet in the

1293
00:57:55,240 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 1: Premier League this weekend?

1294
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 3: So only the second time I bet on them all year.

1295
00:57:59,240 --> 00:58:01,240
Speaker 3: I have really look to stay away from this team

1296
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 3: because I had major concerns about them coming into the season,

1297
00:58:04,280 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 3: thought they'd be worse than their North London rivals. They

1298
00:58:06,600 --> 00:58:09,840
Speaker 3: have been. But it is time to buy some Tottenham

1299
00:58:10,160 --> 00:58:14,720
Speaker 3: Hotspur money line plus one fifty against Everton I like

1300
00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 3: anything plus one forty five or better. My projections actually

1301
00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:20,240
Speaker 3: show a little bit of value on Everton, but once

1302
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 3: I add the new manager bump in which studies disagree

1303
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:25,400
Speaker 3: on how much that's really worth. But the reality is

1304
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:29,240
Speaker 3: it exists. It tends to be an inspired effort, especially

1305
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:31,760
Speaker 3: the first four to five matches under the new manager.

1306
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:34,520
Speaker 3: The motivation levels are high. It's a fresh new face,

1307
00:58:34,560 --> 00:58:37,360
Speaker 3: it's a respected face at Tottenham. They have a more

1308
00:58:37,480 --> 00:58:41,919
Speaker 3: established way to play one and two progress the ball

1309
00:58:42,000 --> 00:58:43,640
Speaker 3: through the middle of the pitch, which has been the

1310
00:58:43,720 --> 00:58:47,080
Speaker 3: biggest issue for Tottenham this season. Kante will give them

1311
00:58:47,120 --> 00:58:49,680
Speaker 3: the plan, he will give them the blueprint and they

1312
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:51,919
Speaker 3: get a match on Thursday, which actually I think works

1313
00:58:51,960 --> 00:58:54,360
Speaker 3: to their benefit with the new manager coming in to

1314
00:58:54,480 --> 00:58:56,320
Speaker 3: kind of get some kinks worked out and figured out

1315
00:58:56,600 --> 00:58:58,720
Speaker 3: how they're going to get this going. Everton is in

1316
00:58:58,840 --> 00:59:00,960
Speaker 3: a team that I'm looking to play against right now,

1317
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:02,880
Speaker 3: going through a big rough patch with a bit of

1318
00:59:02,880 --> 00:59:06,880
Speaker 3: an injury crisis, whose defensive numbers are mighty concerning. Give

1319
00:59:06,920 --> 00:59:09,880
Speaker 3: me Tottenham on the money line plus one fifty away

1320
00:59:09,880 --> 00:59:12,440
Speaker 3: from home at Everton on Sunday morning and I'll wrap

1321
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:12,760
Speaker 3: it up.

1322
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:16,120
Speaker 1: Can't stay away from this bet, can't talk about it enough.

1323
00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:18,080
Speaker 1: I like west Ham plus three eighty on the money

1324
00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:20,880
Speaker 1: line against Liverpool. That's my favorite bet this weekend. Any

1325
00:59:20,920 --> 00:59:23,520
Speaker 1: form of betting west Ham I think is worth it.

1326
00:59:23,920 --> 00:59:25,960
Speaker 1: This team is really really good.

1327
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:26,480
Speaker 2: All right.

1328
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:29,200
Speaker 1: That'll do it for this episode of Wonder Goal. We

1329
00:59:29,320 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 1: will take a little bit of a break while the

1330
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:34,400
Speaker 1: international break takes place, so we will be back not

1331
00:59:34,640 --> 00:59:38,120
Speaker 1: next week but the following Wednesday. And just remember to

1332
00:59:38,400 --> 00:59:41,240
Speaker 1: leave us a review and if you drop your Twitter

1333
00:59:41,320 --> 00:59:43,880
Speaker 1: handle in that review, you will automatically be entered into

1334
00:59:43,920 --> 00:59:46,600
Speaker 1: a contest to win soccer jersey of your choice for

1335
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:50,160
Speaker 1: this season. So for BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo, I'm

1336
00:59:50,200 --> 00:59:52,400
Speaker 1: Michael Leebuff paying good luck this week and into the

1337
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:53,480
Speaker 1: international break we go.