1 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:12,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET 2 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network. 3 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:19,240 Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network, live from 4 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: our Tommy Jones home studios. I'm joined as always by 5 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, Mike Padre, my BFF professional 6 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 1: better Assignmon Hunter ed. 7 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 2: Oh, so I am mad Chad. How is your birthday week? Brother? 8 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: Oh my god, dude, I got so lucky. I do 9 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 1: a trip every year with friends, all my high school 10 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 1: buddies and their wives. There's about twenty five people that go. 11 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: We've been going for seven or eight years. It's the 12 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: highlight of my year. It is a phenomenal weekend, no kids. 13 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: It is constant ball busting laughing. It is truly a 14 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: gift of a trip. And my birthday happened to be 15 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: the weekend of this trip this year, so it was 16 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: just it was a weekend of love and laughter, a 17 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 1: day of love and laughter turning old and it was fantastic. 18 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 1: Simon just great. 19 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 2: Well, so other us were working watching the combine, So 20 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 2: I'm happy you had a good time. I was literally 21 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 2: bored out of my mind. I always forget how much 22 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 2: I love and hate the combine. It's cool at moments. 23 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 2: Other moments are just like what am I doing in 24 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 2: my life? Why am I even watching this? Am I 25 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,960 Speaker 2: gaining anything from this? So yeah, another weekend of NFL 26 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 2: Combine gone, and yeah, already onto the next season. Brother, 27 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 2: it feels like that's the kickoff party. So into twenty 28 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 2: twenty five week go. 29 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,759 Speaker 1: I did get a nice text from you, which I loved. 30 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: So kind of you to think of me on my birthday. 31 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna call, but God bless women. Dude. 32 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 2: I was out at dinner with a girl and the 33 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 2: luckily I was with her the day before and told 34 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 2: her I had texted you to make sure throughout the dinner. 35 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 2: She goes, you call your buddy, Chad. I go, holy shit, 36 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 2: I almost reach out to them before the birthday. Did 37 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 2: hit him on the birthday, So thank god for women. 38 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of a preemptive birthday text, like 39 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: if I remember, if I remember the day before, I'm like, 40 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: oh shit, it's their birthday tomorrow. I'll send it the 41 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 1: day before me like this counts is your birthday text? 42 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 1: I'm not sure it's going to enter the banks tomorrow. 43 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 1: Speaking of NFL, signmon. Today is our first off season 44 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: mailback episode. We're going to answer questions submitted from listeners. 45 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 1: As you would expect, so many of these questions are 46 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 1: NFL related. So I'm glad you're thinking about it. I'm 47 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: thinking about it. We've both put in futures bets into 48 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,640 Speaker 1: the app. I've already put in I think the Niners, 49 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: and I put in the Packers. You've put in the Rams. 50 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 2: I did put it. The Rams in got it. 51 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 1: Rams didn't come up when we had our last conversation 52 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 1: for what they did. 53 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 2: I like the Rams, I said, I just didn't bet 54 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 2: them because the unknown of Stafford. Once I knew what 55 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 2: was gonna happen with Stafford was going to do it. 56 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 2: And yeah, I mean, we can get into it, but 57 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 2: it was definitely a weekend of rumors, I'll tell you 58 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 2: that much. Chad like the hold Stafford to the Raiders. Yeah, 59 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:03,839 Speaker 2: I almost got caught in that one because I thought 60 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:07,080 Speaker 2: that was like, legit gonna happen. He was basically like 61 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 2: a done deal kind of thing. And then the last 62 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 2: minute the Rams came back and we're just like, you know, 63 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 2: we'll pay you. So, yeah, Glad, I did not put 64 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 2: the Raiders into the Action app because that's looking like 65 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 2: a Sam Darnold kind of bet. So yeah, glad I 66 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 2: avoided the Raiders Super Bowl Futures bet. 67 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 1: Well, look, if you had put in the Raiders, it 68 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: could have been in our mail bag. Twenty twenty six. 69 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:27,959 Speaker 1: Is your worst futures bet of twenty twenty nives out, 70 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:30,800 Speaker 1: which is one of the questions that we have today 71 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 1: as a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by 72 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty 73 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 1: five customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus 74 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: bets when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo 75 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five 76 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 1: dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. 77 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, 78 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: and more. 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Was basically 101 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: a moment in which Matt Mitchell created questions for people 102 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: to bash me and then get free hoodies. So that 103 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: sounds like it's going to be a good time. Some 104 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 1: folks might have asked why Chicago. One of the biggest 105 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:39,280 Speaker 1: reasons It's Bet three sixty five is launching in the 106 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 1: state of Illinois in the weeks ahead. Very exciting development 107 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 1: for the fine folks of Illinois, my statehood brethren. All Right, Simon, 108 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: first question, the day before our Chicago live show. Friend 109 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: of the podcast, Chris Long turns forty. Man's getting old. 110 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:04,280 Speaker 1: We love Chris. He retired after a stellar career as 111 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: a defensive end, a fantastic career, multiple Super Bowls. He's 112 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 1: hosted the green Light podcast for many years now. Most importantly, 113 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: Chris Long was and remains a physical beast. So the 114 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 1: question is, if we froze my current physical condition in place, 115 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,359 Speaker 1: what age would Chris Long have to be for me 116 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 1: in Chad Milman twenty twenty five years to confidently defeat 117 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 1: him in a fight. What do you think? The answer is, 118 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: I mean. 119 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 2: I think you're scrappy, Chad. I think you're a little 120 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 2: scrapp for the people perceive so I guess, just because 121 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 2: of the genetic freak, I guess at some point in 122 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 2: his eighties, right, like his hips, his knees, something's gonna 123 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 2: go on that guy. He's pushed his body to the limit. 124 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 2: Chad here not so much. So I feel like you 125 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 2: have an advantage there. So I guess, Yeah, I guess 126 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 2: Chris Long eighty five, Chad could easily take him down. 127 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 1: All right, So I thought a lot about this. And 128 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 1: you know, I exercise a lot. I'm on the rowing machine, 129 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 1: I'm on the peloton, I do light weightlifting. You know, 130 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: I'm about bone density, I'm about flexibility, I'm about stability, 131 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 1: I'm about eating right, I'm about BO two max, all 132 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: those things. I'm looking for health span, Okay, not lifespan, 133 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: health span. And I believe I am in better physical 134 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 1: condition today than I've been in my entire life. So 135 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: if I was able to freeze this in place. My 136 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 1: diet consists of nuts, legomes, beans, occasional chicken, lots of salmon, vegetables, 137 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 1: very little sugar, very little processed food. I am a 138 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: specimen right now, Simon. I like I have tensile strength, 139 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 1: tensile strength. I'm doing the weighted step ups, and you 140 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 1: got a dumbbell in both hands. I'm stepping up. I 141 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 1: did it at the gym when we were in Palm Springs. 142 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: I went twice in the three days we were there. 143 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 2: I think any of this is going to help you 144 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 2: in a fight in any way. 145 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 1: My point, it's a good time for me to freeze 146 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,480 Speaker 1: myself in place. The age for Chris long for me. 147 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 1: You said eighty five. I wrote down eighty three, and 148 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: my thoughts were, by then, maybe he'll have let himself go. 149 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 1: Like clearly he's physical marvel, naturally gifted, naturally athletic, naturally strong, 150 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: and then he did all the work with criored on 151 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: top of that, which he maintains. He's taller, he's stronger. 152 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: But I think by eighty three, maybe he's let himself go. 153 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:40,679 Speaker 1: I think some of the achiness from football, like he 154 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: might not be able to move around. I'll be able to, 155 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: you know, maneuver, scurry, deflect. So I had it at 156 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:51,720 Speaker 1: eighty three, Oh. 157 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:53,200 Speaker 2: Said, that's the only way you could beat him, because 158 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 2: if he got his hands on you, it would even 159 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 2: at that age, old man's strength. Like I was gonna say, 160 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 2: I've seen like you were talking about you beat in 161 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 2: great shape. I've seen guys in peak physical fitness get 162 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 2: dropped by senior citizens because it's all about technique and fighting, 163 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 2: and Chris had the ultimate cheek code. He has a 164 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 2: house full of freak brothers who I'm sure they fought 165 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 2: a ton growing up. So yeah, we would both need 166 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:18,559 Speaker 2: Chris to be incredibly old to be able to take 167 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 2: him down. 168 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: You're right, the brother factor and sort of the muscle 169 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 1: memory of being in that position. It's not the same 170 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:30,079 Speaker 1: for me, given that I had a sister who was 171 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:33,559 Speaker 1: seven years younger than I am. At all, we get 172 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 1: a lot of questions about your model, namely, what are 173 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 1: the most important inputs, So let's start with that question. 174 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, we tell people like to start at the top. 175 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 2: If you're trying to build a football model, the most 176 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 2: important position pretty basic, Go to the quarterback, and then 177 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 2: I think not enough people realize the next position on. 178 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 2: You know, fans think of the running backs, the wide receivers, 179 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 2: those type of positions, right, chare And we always talk 180 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 2: about it's all about the DEAL line, the O line. 181 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 2: So for me, if you want to go D line 182 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 2: over O line, no problem. I know plenty of people 183 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 2: who value that higher than they do O line. I 184 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:13,319 Speaker 2: do put O line above D line and then you 185 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 2: can build out from there. So yeah, for me, it 186 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 2: really is all about the quarterback, the O lines D lines, 187 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 2: and then you know, I know plenty of people that 188 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 2: factor in the coaching and you know, the biggest adjustment 189 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 2: this year, I mean, I know that's part of this 190 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 2: question coming up. What's the you know, adjustments I'm making 191 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 2: through the model. It's going to be. We talked about 192 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 2: the fourth down success rate, Like I can't overlook how 193 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 2: important that was this past season, how much that changed football, 194 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 2: Like we just we've never seen it go up like 195 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 2: it did this past season. That's something I really do 196 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 2: need a factor in my model. You know, teams being 197 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 2: more risk averse and that's that is a big deal. 198 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 2: And we talk about like we did this past year, 199 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 2: about the favorites compared to the dogs, Right, the better quarterbacks, 200 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 2: even if they're on that not that much better of 201 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 2: a team. If the quarterback is such an important position 202 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 2: that if they teams have the trust to go from 203 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 2: their fourth downs rather than a team that you know, 204 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 2: like the Saints and Derek Carr, which means you had 205 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 2: to have zero faith on fourth down that it's going 206 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 2: to be a completion. It is a big difference when 207 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 2: youre talking about betting, Like I'm more I'm more able 208 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 2: to put money on it's a quarterback of a favorite 209 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:18,560 Speaker 2: that I believe in rather than a dog at this 210 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 2: point with a quarterback I don't believe in, because these 211 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 2: fourth down tendencies are just it's just different in the 212 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 2: NFL than it was just say, four years ago. Like 213 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 2: this is really a new age type of thing we're 214 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 2: dealing with here. So that's definitely something this offseason I'm 215 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 2: going to dive way more into. Is the fourth down 216 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:32,839 Speaker 2: success rate? 217 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 1: When you say quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, do you 218 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:44,559 Speaker 1: do anything with overall offensive power ratings, defensive power ratings? 219 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 1: Like to me, I would start top down offensive power rating, 220 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 1: defensive power rating, and then like incorporate quarterback and then 221 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 1: offensive line. But I feel like those two sides plus 222 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:00,280 Speaker 1: quarterback would end up being like eighty five percent of 223 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 1: what I was looking at. 224 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 2: You could I use what I use grading for, especially 225 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 2: like Pro Football Focus is like going to their grades 226 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:09,680 Speaker 2: about different players where I'm not keen in on right, 227 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:11,839 Speaker 2: Like there's a couple of guys that come in to 228 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:14,319 Speaker 2: the league and you're not really sure about and you're 229 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 2: not paying attention to those teams, and they kind of 230 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 2: pop on film. Film doesn't really all explain if a 231 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:20,839 Speaker 2: player is good or not. And that's really like you're 232 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 2: talking about individual stats and numbers. Definitely that's something I 233 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 2: dive into. But if you're trying to incorporate all that 234 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 2: into your model, you can do that, but that is 235 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 2: a ton of work, and you know them might muddy 236 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 2: the waters a little bit because it could make you 237 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 2: over adjust the different things. Like you know, we joked 238 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:39,199 Speaker 2: about a Cooper de Gene join the Eagles. You look 239 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 2: at how he ended the year. He ended out of 240 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 2: the year is like a top five cornerback Nickel, Like, 241 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:46,559 Speaker 2: that's that's the type of thing where you do need 242 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:48,680 Speaker 2: to be ahead of and adjust that in your model. 243 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:50,959 Speaker 2: The fact that he isn't proven a defense that much. 244 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 2: So I agree with you. There are there are individual 245 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,719 Speaker 2: stats to dive into. But yeah, for what I do now, 246 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 2: it's it's kind of a median, right. I use them 247 00:12:58,400 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 2: and a bunch of other different websites to try get 248 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 2: one media number on each player grade rather than individual 249 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 2: each player grade. 250 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: Right, But what I'm saying, is overall offensive power raiding 251 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 1: overall defensive. 252 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 2: You're saying, you know that's v though we talk about 253 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:15,679 Speaker 2: that all the time. That's that's DVA, Like do you 254 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 2: want to do that? 255 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, why do you hate DVOA. 256 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 2: I don't. I just think it's like it's just the 257 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:25,079 Speaker 2: boying lazy man tool in a lot of ways. Right, 258 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 2: Like the Lions played the the Washington the playoffs, DVOA, 259 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 2: they had a way better grade because they were better 260 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 2: all season. If they even if they adjust by the 261 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 2: season goes along, you know, dv O was gonna favorite 262 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 2: big time the Lions team against that Washington team, where 263 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 2: when you really break it down, their DVO is much 264 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 2: closer because that Washington kept on improving throughout the season 265 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:50,079 Speaker 2: towards heading to the playoffs. Or on the flip side, 266 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 2: the Lions were just dying, like they were just slowly 267 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:55,079 Speaker 2: dying and there was nothing they could really do. So 268 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 2: I do love DVA, but I explained to you, I 269 00:13:57,720 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 2: just think it's a tool where some people just simp 270 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,079 Speaker 2: use that as their metric for every bet they make 271 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 2: on just I think that's way too risky and too 272 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 2: basic to use like that. 273 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:07,199 Speaker 1: No, I don't think you can do that. I've actually 274 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 1: you and I've talked about this from about the past month, 275 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 1: been thinking really hard about modeling and what the inputs 276 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: should be. And everyone I talked to they don't use 277 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 1: DVA exclusively, but they do use some form of offensive 278 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 1: power rating, defensive power rating, quarterback rating. Offensive line comes 279 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 1: up less, defensive line comes up less. And then like 280 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 1: success metrics, you know, because and that's a new advanced 281 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: analytic for the NFL that does measure sort of how 282 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 1: well you perform in those ten yard increments, right, And 283 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 1: so to me, that's a really interesting metric to start 284 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 1: to think about if you are looking for new keys 285 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: too analyzing teams, because it tends to indicate how well 286 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: a team is performing in the most basic of expectations, 287 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: which is getting a first down. 288 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, but like those numbers two you're diving into there, 289 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 2: that's that's also people looking for matchups that can take 290 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 2: advantage of. Right. So yeah, that makes total sense in 291 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 2: my view. 292 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: I like when you agree with me makes me happy. 293 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: As I get older, Simon just makes me feel like 294 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: I'm getting smarter, But so are you, because you're thinking 295 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: on my level now. As an old person looking back 296 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: at last season. The first the worst futures bet you 297 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 1: made for me? It's easy, Like I saw this question 298 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 1: and I didn't have to think hard at all. I 299 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 1: bet on the Vikings to have the worst record in 300 00:15:56,280 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 1: the NFL because I had so little faith in Sam Donald. 301 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 1: I thought the team needed to restock. I was not 302 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 1: a fan of the signing of Andrew van Ginkel and 303 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 1: getting rid of Daniel Hunter, so I just thought, this 304 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: is a team that is going to start over. Little 305 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 1: did I know Kevin O'Connell really was the genius that 306 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: I thought he was, and Sam Donald was gonna have 307 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 1: a brilliant year. So for me, that's the one. 308 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll join you on that one. That was definitely 309 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 2: our worst take, but it's also it's why we love football, right. 310 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 2: They were basically every one of those games were play 311 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:39,920 Speaker 2: away pretty much from being you know, four and thirteen, 312 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 2: Like they had a ton of really good luck in 313 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 2: one square games and Sam Donald played it insane level 314 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 2: that there is no one in the world that can 315 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 2: say they knew that Sam Donald was gonna play at 316 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 2: that level for that whole season. So they're going to 317 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 2: be coming up a lot here. If we're talking about 318 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 2: worst things we did this past season, because it took 319 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 2: me a minute to believe in this Vikings team, like 320 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 2: I was fighting them, Like we talked about we were 321 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 2: heavy on them being the worst team. Like my three 322 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 2: worst teams were them, Tennessee and New England nailed the 323 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 2: other two got absolutely slaughtered obviously on the Vikings. But 324 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:13,200 Speaker 2: we talk all the time. It's tough to know how 325 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:16,359 Speaker 2: these quarterbacks can perform in new situations and new teams. 326 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 2: And Sam Darnold, you know, totally totally played out of 327 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 2: this world, just like we've seen Baker playing in Tampa. Like, 328 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 2: these guys get to these new teams, if they have 329 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 2: the right coach and the right talent around them, it's 330 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 2: pretty incredible what they can do. But yeah, the Vikings 331 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 2: clearly don't believe in the long term. They'll let him walk. 332 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:36,880 Speaker 1: What's interesting about the Bucks and Baker that has been 333 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 1: really impressive. That bodes well I think for him back 334 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 1: to back years now with a new offensive coordinator. Yeah, 335 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 1: and did great both years from Canalis to Liam Khne 336 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:50,439 Speaker 1: and now he's going to have to do it again. 337 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:53,440 Speaker 1: I would be less worried about it if I were 338 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 1: a Bucks fan, then I might have previously been because 339 00:17:56,560 --> 00:18:00,440 Speaker 1: he's proven what he's good at. They's got moxie get 340 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 1: behind and all of a sudden, I think that's a 341 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: lot to build on versus a right, here's another journeyman 342 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 1: QB that we're not really sold on. I think that's 343 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 1: gonna be the problem with Donald is you're gonna have 344 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 1: to see if people really start to rally around him 345 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 1: as he decided, if he ends up going somewhere else, 346 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: and if he can repeat the success the way Baker 347 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 1: has done it. Simon which individual game bet to you 348 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,159 Speaker 1: look back on and hate the most. I have a 349 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 1: list of so many, and I've been trying to figure 350 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 1: out which one I hate the most. You tell me 351 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 1: what yours is. 352 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 2: Mine's mind's easy. It's Week two. I'm almost positive was 353 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 2: week too. It was forty nine ers first the Vikings, 354 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 2: and it was like definitely one of these moments where 355 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 2: like everyone thinks the shit don't stink, and I had 356 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 2: a moment there where I was like, I thought I 357 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 2: was smarter than a lot of guys who I respect 358 00:18:56,760 --> 00:19:00,159 Speaker 2: in this business. They basically told me all week to 359 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 2: bet my house on the Vikings first to forty nine ers. 360 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 2: I think the Vikings opened as a plus six dog 361 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 2: or plus six and a half and it got down 362 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 2: to four and a half four by kickoff and whatever 363 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 2: happened that someday Morening, Not only did I load up 364 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 2: on the four nineers, I made you put them in 365 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 2: the competition. Well, we both knew. I said it too, 366 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,880 Speaker 2: this is going to lose, but I need to bet 367 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 2: it anyway. Like I have no idea what I was 368 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,199 Speaker 2: going through at that time period, my head wasn't just 369 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 2: spinning because normally nine out of ten times I would 370 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 2: have been on the Vikings in that spot ultimate trap spot, 371 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 2: undervalue team as a dog at home. And yeah, my 372 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 2: hate for the Vikings was just too strong. Again, we 373 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 2: all make mistakes, especially as a professional, but that was 374 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 2: when I was just like, fuck, that was such an 375 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:47,359 Speaker 2: amateur bet, so that that definitely haunted me this past season. 376 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 1: I am going to go to first week of October, 377 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 1: October sixth, Joe Burrow and the Bengals against the Baltimore 378 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: raven Yeah, Bengals are two and a half point dogs. 379 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,359 Speaker 1: We still believe in the Bengals at this point. The 380 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 1: Ravens defense has been playing terribly. They're letting teams back 381 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: in it NonStop in the first half of the year. 382 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:16,919 Speaker 1: We're thinking, Bengals outright is the play? So two and 383 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:17,920 Speaker 1: a half is value. 384 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 2: I swear you were gonna go Bears. Bears commanders here, 385 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 2: but that was such a Chad moment. 386 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 1: That was That was God, that was pretty bad too. 387 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 1: I forgot about it, you know what I want. 388 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 2: I'm sorry you blocked it. I should never even brought 389 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 2: it up. 390 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 1: You just I totally forgot about it. Because the Bears 391 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 1: game that was on my list was when we had 392 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,200 Speaker 1: the Lions minus nine and a half and they were 393 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 1: they should have been up there in the first half 394 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: and the Bears covered. It was Cincinnati two and a half, 395 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 1: because that was a game that also to me, like 396 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:53,200 Speaker 1: the Bears. Whatever. The Bears, you know, they weren't a 397 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 1: team that we believed in. They were a team that 398 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 1: that if anything good happened, we were excited. That was 399 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: a bad beat, but this was a beat that felt 400 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: indicative of the season. 401 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,960 Speaker 2: Okay for us, where. 402 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: We're winning, we're winning, we're winning. Joe Burrow, who has 403 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:14,800 Speaker 1: the best year he's ever had, maybe has the worst 404 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 1: play he makes the entire season, and we end up 405 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 1: losing the bet on a field goal by a kicker 406 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 1: who was having his worst season and happened to make 407 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 1: his best kick in that game. So it wasn't like 408 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 1: it wasn't like, oh, things weren't going our way. It's 409 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 1: like the extremes didn't go our way. No, and that 410 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:41,879 Speaker 1: game was indicative of everything that went wrong for our season. 411 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:44,159 Speaker 2: They're brutal. 412 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: You remember you know the game I'm talking about. 413 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,359 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I remember Moll Brother. I don't remember the wins. 414 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 2: I remember all the losses. 415 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 1: Well, that's what makes this next question so hard. Like 416 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 1: when I saw this question, I made a bunch of 417 00:21:55,840 --> 00:22:00,200 Speaker 1: notes in the script and I had I had seven 418 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:05,120 Speaker 1: or eight answers for this one, including any Tennessee boy 419 00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 1: to bet at any point in the season, and any 420 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 1: Carolina bet in the first half of the season, and 421 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 1: basically any Jets bet all season, right because because they 422 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 1: were fucking us all year, the ones I liked. I 423 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 1: basically had three games a bet that I look back 424 00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:29,160 Speaker 1: on and it still makes me happy. I pinpointed Miami 425 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 1: minus five and a half at the Jets in early December, 426 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,679 Speaker 1: where because jeff Elbrick is such a bad head coach, 427 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,240 Speaker 1: and made such terrible decisions when it came to fourth 428 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 1: downs and managing the clock. Even when Miami had no 429 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 1: business covering a six point spread, they did it in 430 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 1: overtime against the Jets and it never felt like we 431 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:57,399 Speaker 1: were out of it. And then Carolina covering again, covering 432 00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 1: a six point spread against Tampa first week of to 433 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 1: say also was a big one for me. 434 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:05,879 Speaker 2: Yeah, I would just say regular season, that's that's a 435 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,199 Speaker 2: big one for me. The Panthers over the Bucks just 436 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 2: because we love them, We hammered them. We kept saying 437 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,159 Speaker 2: that was a great spot to take them. The Bucks 438 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 2: were going one way, the Panthers were going another way, 439 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 2: and yeah, that one was going for for the full season, 440 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 2: I would say I'd have to go to the playoffs. That 441 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 2: That Washington over the Lions game was just epic. It's 442 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 2: why I love the show like it was one of 443 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 2: the rare times we really loved the dog. We talked 444 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 2: about them a NonStop, even game out the money line, 445 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 2: and it's the best because you hear a ton of 446 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:42,120 Speaker 2: noise those types of weeks, right because there's only four 447 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 2: games going on, Especially Lions fans, right, they have every 448 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,120 Speaker 2: right to be really passionate about their team and them 449 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,879 Speaker 2: and there the line fans and the backers of that 450 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 2: team were just NonStop that whole week. Like anytime I'd 451 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 2: say anything on social media, even if I didn't say shit, 452 00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 2: I was getting messages constantly how big of a fucking 453 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 2: idiot I am. And just to see the fact that 454 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 2: they rolled like they did in Washington, the fact that 455 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 2: Jane Daniels played a perfect game. Their defense had the 456 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 2: three picks, the pick six, our four interceptions, three off golf, 457 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,119 Speaker 2: but all of the just lined up and it was 458 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:16,159 Speaker 2: just you know, obviously the Eagles fan, Eagle games as 459 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:17,880 Speaker 2: a fan, those are the most fun games to watch. 460 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 2: Is just astray better. That Washington game was so much 461 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:22,879 Speaker 2: fun to watch because of the build up to it 462 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,480 Speaker 2: and the fact that it just kept going their way 463 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 2: throughout the game. Right, It was a nice slow burn 464 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 2: of just dominating that Detroit team because it was I mean, 465 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 2: people forget it was back and forth that Troy was 466 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 2: running for like two hundred yards. They could do whatever 467 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:37,640 Speaker 2: they want, and then all of a sudden that pick 468 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 2: six happened and it just flipped that entire game. So yeah, 469 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,200 Speaker 2: that was a really fun memory that Washington Lions game. 470 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 1: Here's another question, Simon. So many of our listeners are 471 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:53,720 Speaker 1: pondering but are afraid to ask. Luckily, using my incredible 472 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,120 Speaker 1: powers of discernment, I am channeling that question right now. 473 00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:00,879 Speaker 1: These listeners, they are uncomfortable and they're daily lives. They 474 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 1: lack the confidence to achieve greatness. What the access can 475 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,679 Speaker 1: they do? How can they transform their lives for the better? 476 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:13,280 Speaker 1: What tools do they lack? Well, I've got good news listeners. 477 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 1: Everything you need is just to click away one click 478 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,199 Speaker 1: to Tommy john dot com slash favorites to transport you 479 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 1: to a world of comfort, confidence, and transformative change. 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Simon, why 485 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:47,080 Speaker 1: will you be wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty five? 486 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 2: Because comfort is king? 487 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:52,119 Speaker 1: Right now, you can shop Tommy john dot com slash 488 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 1: favorites and get twenty five percent off your first order. 489 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 1: Save twenty five percent at Tommy john dot com slash favorites. 490 00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 1: That's Tommy john dot com slash favorites. This is going 491 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,720 Speaker 1: to be the eighth NFL season since passed about The 492 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 1: Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act was repealed in May of 493 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. What are some of the biggest changes you've seen, 494 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 1: Simon in NFL betting markets? What are some of the 495 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:26,359 Speaker 1: biggest differences between years prior to legalization and today. That 496 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:34,159 Speaker 1: could be teaser pricing, market choices, sharper lines, availability to information, scrutiny, 497 00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:35,120 Speaker 1: you name it. 498 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 2: Oh, it's tough, brother, because I hate being negative more 499 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,640 Speaker 2: of the offseason. But people that bitch and moan about 500 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,840 Speaker 2: the good old days, they're kind of right. In the systems. 501 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:48,040 Speaker 2: Everything is just worse. Everything is just absolutely worse in 502 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 2: this field. But it's always darkest before the dawn, my friend, 503 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,480 Speaker 2: and things will get turned around the future. I just 504 00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,920 Speaker 2: think we're in a weird, very weird time period right 505 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,120 Speaker 2: now when it comes to sports betting values. I mean 506 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,080 Speaker 2: some book legit give out I mean, Chad knows they 507 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 2: give out a minus one twenty on a side and 508 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,080 Speaker 2: a minus one twenty on the other side. I can't 509 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 2: believe that's legal in this country, that these books can 510 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 2: do that type of stuff. So it's there's a lot, 511 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 2: there's there's so much I could go, well, get down. 512 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 2: It's been an episode on a whole episode on that 513 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:20,280 Speaker 2: type of question. But my biggest one I always preach 514 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 2: to people is have multiple books. I hope, I hope 515 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 2: you're in a state where you have multiple books. We 516 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 2: can price and shop around because I mean, every dime 517 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 2: does matter, every every cent they take from you on 518 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 2: the line does matter, and that adds up if you 519 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,439 Speaker 2: want to be a long term successful better it's a 520 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,399 Speaker 2: big deal. But to me, the good thing in this 521 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:44,159 Speaker 2: industry is that someone like me personally, I've got to 522 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 2: know people at different sports books, work with guys, and 523 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,200 Speaker 2: there are good guys out there running books that will 524 00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:50,840 Speaker 2: take bets and you can work with them and they'll 525 00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 2: reach out to you and try to help bounce their 526 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,679 Speaker 2: books out. But a couple of the books that are 527 00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:57,840 Speaker 2: just too big to fail, that can do whatever the 528 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,399 Speaker 2: hell they want. It's it's just a different, totally different world. 529 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,560 Speaker 2: So yeah, as the public, my best advice would be 530 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,199 Speaker 2: multiple books. It's the key to everything here is just 531 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:08,439 Speaker 2: shop around, find the best number in the best line. 532 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 1: It's so interesting you say, you know, every every dime 533 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 1: matters if you want to be a long term successful 534 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:22,560 Speaker 1: better I don't know if people do want to be that. 535 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,679 Speaker 1: You know, when we started Action and I when I 536 00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 1: saw this question, the immediate answer to me was same 537 00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 1: game parlays. And I don't mean that as a negative 538 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:40,400 Speaker 1: or a positive. The question was what is the biggest difference. Obviously, 539 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 1: same game parlays were not a thing before we launched 540 00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:50,160 Speaker 1: Action and before the repeal of PASPA, they just didn't exist, right, 541 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:54,160 Speaker 1: And so when we launched Action, we thought everyone want 542 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 1: to everyone would want to bet the way we do, 543 00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 1: which is you don't care about the team that's playing. 544 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:04,400 Speaker 1: You're searching for the biggest edge at the best price 545 00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 1: on sides totals. That's really where that's the markets that 546 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 1: were most dominantly available, and that's how we approached it, 547 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 1: That's how operators were approaching it. And so remember this, 548 00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: we wanted best bet, no matter the team, at best 549 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 1: price with the biggest edge. Parlays have become so popular. 550 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 1: Same game parlays have become so popular. And while there 551 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:39,000 Speaker 1: are certainly edges and we do our best to identify 552 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 1: the edges and the opportunities and the value and all 553 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 1: these things. Those still aren't the bets that you make 554 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:49,800 Speaker 1: that are the most ROI positive, the most positive ev 555 00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 1: And so it turns out people kind of just want 556 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:57,600 Speaker 1: the worst bets on their favorite team that's going to 557 00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 1: make in the most money in the shortest amount of time. 558 00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,920 Speaker 1: And so to me, that's kind of the biggest difference 559 00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 1: is the advent of these parlay markets. 560 00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I've obviously tons of people I grew up with, 561 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 2: friends I've known a long time that's I could tell 562 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,440 Speaker 2: them exactly the answers to the test, but they're going 563 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 2: to want to do their own take their own tests, right, 564 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,480 Speaker 2: They don't. They don't want to bet the smart starup 565 00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 2: sides like you talked about. Well, they might throw my 566 00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 2: bet into the parlay, but what you just talked about 567 00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 2: so true. Chat, I don't argue against it because you're right. 568 00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,720 Speaker 2: Most people watching, you know, they don't care. That's why 569 00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 2: I love our show. It's unique where we're doing pick contests. 570 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,000 Speaker 2: That's why most people listen to us as we're trying 571 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 2: to help them with their pick contests and give their 572 00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,440 Speaker 2: view of a different perspective on a pick contest where 573 00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,360 Speaker 2: you know, most betters these days, especially guys I know, 574 00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,400 Speaker 2: if they have one hundred dollars to bet that Sunday, 575 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:52,760 Speaker 2: they want to do ten different five team t parlays 576 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 2: or whatever with ten dollars on each one, and they're 577 00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:56,680 Speaker 2: hoping to hit just one of them to get their 578 00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,040 Speaker 2: money back, or maybe make twenty bucks on top or 579 00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,440 Speaker 2: something like that. I get that's a lot of the 580 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:03,680 Speaker 2: people now, and you know, Chad knows we have the 581 00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 2: numbers that back it up. But I still think there 582 00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:10,080 Speaker 2: are a lot of guys that they like to see 583 00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:11,840 Speaker 2: the other side even how the pros do do it. 584 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:13,479 Speaker 2: So I do think there is a market for what 585 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 2: we do, which is, you know, pick games straight up, 586 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,760 Speaker 2: which is we talk all the time. It's hard as shit. 587 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 2: You want to go and make easy money, go bet 588 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 2: player props, right, That's that's an easy market. That's a 589 00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 2: small market. And you know, if you don't need to 590 00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,880 Speaker 2: get big money down you can bet player markets. But 591 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,520 Speaker 2: if you want to make real money long term, like 592 00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:34,320 Speaker 2: Chad just talked about, you got to bet it straight. 593 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,960 Speaker 2: It's the only way. These guys online posting their five 594 00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:42,280 Speaker 2: team parlays making a million dollars every week. Only suckers 595 00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,800 Speaker 2: fall for that. Anyone that's in this long enough knows 596 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,520 Speaker 2: that that's not long term winning. These guys are betting 597 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:50,560 Speaker 2: both sides. They're messing with you. It's not real. It's 598 00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,560 Speaker 2: fake tickets. So yeah, it's tough out there, Like people 599 00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 2: want me to call people out all the time, and 600 00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,200 Speaker 2: it's just like it's a waste. People need to learn. 601 00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 2: Like all everyone's going through, everyone's been a sucker online 602 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 2: At some point the paint picks to someone that's a 603 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,160 Speaker 2: fraud or thinking this guy who's winning these parlays all 604 00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:08,680 Speaker 2: week is going to keep hitting them for the rest 605 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 2: of the year, where it's like, no, that was the 606 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,920 Speaker 2: one week this year it's going to hit So Chad's right. 607 00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,360 Speaker 2: It's a weird way the league that the sports betting 608 00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 2: world has gone. But I saw it coming a mile away. 609 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:21,080 Speaker 2: It's everyone used sports but as a get rich quick scheme, 610 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,800 Speaker 2: and it's just that's the biggest lie they're being sold. 611 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:24,840 Speaker 2: It's just simply is not. 612 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:29,640 Speaker 1: Well. I never saw it coming. I'll be honest. I 613 00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,680 Speaker 1: feel like I've been pretty pruscient about this business and 614 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:40,480 Speaker 1: where it was going, and I thought, like I thought 615 00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,720 Speaker 1: player props would become much much bigger, and they have 616 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,520 Speaker 1: and I'm a fan of them, and I think that 617 00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 1: that the transition from fantasy to daily fantasy and the 618 00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:57,840 Speaker 1: ability to project player performance has been wondrous and fascinating 619 00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,240 Speaker 1: to watch. I did not see sort of the parlay 620 00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 1: market becoming the lottery ticket that it has become. It's 621 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 1: fascinating to see it, and you know, we covered as 622 00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,840 Speaker 1: best we can. But to me, that's the biggest difference 623 00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:18,719 Speaker 1: in sort of pre PASPA and post PASPA is you know, 624 00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:22,200 Speaker 1: you're less I am. You're more cynical than I am. 625 00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:26,040 Speaker 1: So I didn't think people would want to get rich 626 00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,719 Speaker 1: quick in sports betting because it seems impossible to do it. 627 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:30,680 Speaker 1: I figured people want to just be good at this 628 00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,360 Speaker 1: because they're enjoying it for watching the sports, and they 629 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:34,760 Speaker 1: want to make a little bit of money and feel 630 00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,280 Speaker 1: connected and be the smartest person in the room, all 631 00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,760 Speaker 1: the things that interest me in it. So, yeah, the 632 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:46,920 Speaker 1: sgps were a surprise for sure. Can change can happen 633 00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:51,480 Speaker 1: quickly in the NFL as of today, Simon, what NFL 634 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:56,400 Speaker 1: team would you least like to be a fan of? 635 00:33:56,560 --> 00:34:04,400 Speaker 1: Because their status, their future, their hopes feels least, it 636 00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:05,920 Speaker 1: feels most hopeless. 637 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's hard because that's why we love football, right, 638 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:12,799 Speaker 2: is that your team can be changed on one draft. Right. 639 00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,279 Speaker 2: We saw that with Washington. I mean heuse all that 640 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:17,800 Speaker 2: with Houston as well. Like you get the quarterback in there, 641 00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:19,920 Speaker 2: a couple of our pieces fall into place. You can 642 00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:24,240 Speaker 2: change your organization, and that's what so special about football. 643 00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:26,839 Speaker 2: But some some organizations can just cannot get it right. 644 00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,440 Speaker 2: It does not matter what they do. Even if they 645 00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:31,359 Speaker 2: get the guy, they let the guy either a coach 646 00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,120 Speaker 2: or whoever, they let them out of the building. So 647 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:36,920 Speaker 2: for me, the team, I don't know what the hell 648 00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,440 Speaker 2: they're going to do going forward. It's the Saints. I 649 00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,000 Speaker 2: really don't know what the Saints are going to do 650 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:47,680 Speaker 2: and what their game plan is. You know, maybe they 651 00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:49,640 Speaker 2: found their head coach. Maybe they found their guy and 652 00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:52,200 Speaker 2: he can you know, show some things this year and 653 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 2: then next year maybe they get their quarterback or whatever. 654 00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:56,800 Speaker 2: It's just when I really dive into their numbers and 655 00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:59,680 Speaker 2: their team and how bad they've done in drafts, money management, 656 00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,239 Speaker 2: all it, I just I feel like it's about to 657 00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,920 Speaker 2: be ten fifteen twenty years of just the dark ages 658 00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 2: right now for the Saints, so they're definitely my number one. 659 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:09,719 Speaker 1: I had him on my list. They were the first 660 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,080 Speaker 1: team I thought of as well, and then I added 661 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:17,400 Speaker 1: on my list Brown's, Titans and Raiders Saints for all 662 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,759 Speaker 1: the reasons you mentioned, I think that the cupboard is 663 00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:25,200 Speaker 1: kind of bear. They've got huge cap management issues, they 664 00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 1: have not historically drafted that well Brown's, They've got the 665 00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:34,680 Speaker 1: d Shawn albatross. They've got ownership that I just don't 666 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 1: think is very good. All that savvy reputationally not known 667 00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:43,200 Speaker 1: as the sharpest knives in the drawer in the NFL community. 668 00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 1: Now their best player in a generation in Miles Garrett 669 00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:50,759 Speaker 1: wants out because he sees how bad things are. They 670 00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:54,560 Speaker 1: have no real hope at quarterback right now unless they 671 00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:58,800 Speaker 1: can get you know, turn cam Ward into something brilliant. 672 00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:02,360 Speaker 1: But the Raids on him are not can't miss prospect. 673 00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:04,719 Speaker 1: The Titans because I think there's a lot of the issues, 674 00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:07,120 Speaker 1: like they're drafting number one at a time where there 675 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,880 Speaker 1: isn't a can't miss prospect in a position that can 676 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,880 Speaker 1: really change the game. And the Raiders not great ownership. 677 00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:21,520 Speaker 1: Totally bear cupboard just complete utter mismanagement from every level 678 00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:26,200 Speaker 1: over the past ten years. I would not want to 679 00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:29,840 Speaker 1: be a fan of that team. All fair want to 680 00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:33,640 Speaker 1: make extra money daily from your sports betting. Simon knows 681 00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:37,400 Speaker 1: I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting 682 00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,719 Speaker 1: to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell 683 00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:43,400 Speaker 1: you about edge boost, the financial platform that pays you 684 00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:48,439 Speaker 1: cash back to wager. Edge Boost is an online bank 685 00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,200 Speaker 1: account that pays you for every deposit with the edge 686 00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:55,640 Speaker 1: Boost Visa debit card, you receive up to a half 687 00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 1: a percent cash back on all your sports book, daily 688 00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:03,520 Speaker 1: fantasy site and transactions. That's free money back in your 689 00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:07,360 Speaker 1: pocket for doing what you're already doing. 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He did get better as 706 00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:14,000 Speaker 2: the season went along. I know that's not saying much 707 00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:17,640 Speaker 2: to a lot of people, but it's such an ugly 708 00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:19,960 Speaker 2: gross position chat when we've seen it. I mean, there's 709 00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:21,800 Speaker 2: just some teams that just have nothing at the position. 710 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:25,160 Speaker 2: So yeah, would I rather than him than you know, 711 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,960 Speaker 2: the thirtieth or you know Marcus Mariotea who I love 712 00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,000 Speaker 2: Marcus mariotte as a backup, but you don't want him 713 00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,240 Speaker 2: as I want of the thirty started thirty two starting quarterbacks. 714 00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,360 Speaker 2: So yeah, I think Rogers still has a place in 715 00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,440 Speaker 2: this league. Sure, but it's just hard because we're so 716 00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,040 Speaker 2: used to him being great, and you know a lot 717 00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,080 Speaker 2: of people don't like him because it was all field 718 00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,240 Speaker 2: antics and what he says off field, but just strictly 719 00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:50,160 Speaker 2: on field, I guess I'd still take them, like, if 720 00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,279 Speaker 2: you have nothing at the position, I'd give him a 721 00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:55,200 Speaker 2: job just because he does have. These moments are brilliance 722 00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:58,399 Speaker 2: and he does not a command at offense. But yeah, 723 00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:02,040 Speaker 2: it's it's just sad times. I mean, you know, this 724 00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:03,919 Speaker 2: might be it for him this year as a starter 725 00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:04,680 Speaker 2: of this league. 726 00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:10,520 Speaker 1: I think he's irrelevant as a player. I think if 727 00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:14,880 Speaker 1: you don't have an offensive line that is perfect with 728 00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:19,960 Speaker 1: him as your quarterback, you're destined to be disappointed. I 729 00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:23,120 Speaker 1: think if you don't have uber talented receivers who can 730 00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:27,920 Speaker 1: read his mind, you're destined to be disappointed. I think 731 00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:33,279 Speaker 1: he will come in and change the chemistry of your 732 00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:37,799 Speaker 1: franchise in a way that you can't expect or understand 733 00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,800 Speaker 1: until he's in the building. I think the only reason 734 00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:43,200 Speaker 1: he's relevant is because people still like to talk to 735 00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,279 Speaker 1: him and talk about him, because he's always going to 736 00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,080 Speaker 1: give an interesting answer. He's always going to give an 737 00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:52,359 Speaker 1: answer where he is kind of smirking, kind of thinking 738 00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:54,520 Speaker 1: he's the smartest guy in the room, kind of think 739 00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:58,480 Speaker 1: he's getting one over on you. And for those reasons, alone, 740 00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:01,000 Speaker 1: you're going to want to talk about the guy. Are 741 00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:04,160 Speaker 1: those football reasons? No, but he's still going to be 742 00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:07,520 Speaker 1: a guy that has relevance because Aaron Rodgers at the 743 00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:09,879 Speaker 1: tail end of his career and things haven't been going 744 00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:13,560 Speaker 1: well and the expectations are always so high. So yeah, 745 00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:19,440 Speaker 1: he's relevant. Unfortunately. Last question, last question. We started the 746 00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:25,840 Speaker 1: show talking about inputs for models, offensive line, defensive line, quarterback. 747 00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:30,200 Speaker 1: What is your least relevant position. 748 00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:38,320 Speaker 2: In football? Sheesh man, they're all tough. 749 00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:42,280 Speaker 1: I thought about this a lot. I had two answers. 750 00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:48,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say, I guess, I guess it is 751 00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:52,160 Speaker 2: because it's kind of going extinct. Would be the fullback. 752 00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:54,920 Speaker 1: That was my answer. 753 00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:58,399 Speaker 2: That's a good one. I would say fullback's a good one. 754 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:00,920 Speaker 2: I'm trying to think. It's like like I like to 755 00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:04,200 Speaker 2: make fun of kickers and punters, but they're they're crazy important, 756 00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:09,080 Speaker 2: Like they're crazy important to the team. If I had 757 00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,680 Speaker 2: to put one down, though, I would say, you could 758 00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:14,520 Speaker 2: win a game of all the positions. Have the worst 759 00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,440 Speaker 2: player in the entire field. You could win a game 760 00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:20,280 Speaker 2: if your slot corner, I guess it's just absolutely terrible. 761 00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:22,400 Speaker 2: Like if there's one position you could get away on 762 00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:25,800 Speaker 2: the field because everyone else, like, if you're a linebackers awful. 763 00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:27,239 Speaker 2: If there's a guy in the line that's just the 764 00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:31,080 Speaker 2: worst player on the team, safety, cornerback, Yeah, I think 765 00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:32,920 Speaker 2: I think Nichol is the only place you get away 766 00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:35,080 Speaker 2: with having just an absolute horror because maybe you can 767 00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:39,359 Speaker 2: just double that guy and you know, yeah, that's really tough. Though, 768 00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,959 Speaker 2: that's tough. Worst the least important position on the field, 769 00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:42,560 Speaker 2: it's really tough. 770 00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:44,799 Speaker 1: Well, I think the least important position has to be 771 00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:49,440 Speaker 1: the position that is basically no longer in existence. How 772 00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:52,920 Speaker 1: many full backs can you name? Right, there's like three 773 00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:56,680 Speaker 1: full backs and uh two of them one of them 774 00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:58,319 Speaker 1: plays for the Ravens and one in place for the 775 00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,840 Speaker 1: Chargers and one in place for the Chiefs. And the 776 00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:03,200 Speaker 1: fullbacks for the Ravens and the Chargers end up just 777 00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:05,840 Speaker 1: being guys that the hardballs like to play both ways. 778 00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:09,720 Speaker 1: And so I think that's got to be the least 779 00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,920 Speaker 1: relevant because they don't even have to be on the field. 780 00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:16,200 Speaker 1: Their impact is so minimal. I thought punter kicker for 781 00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:21,240 Speaker 1: less than half a second, because anybody knows kickers, forget 782 00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:24,799 Speaker 1: about how important they are. Punters. You have two bed 783 00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:26,880 Speaker 1: punts in a game. It could fuck you. It could 784 00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:28,680 Speaker 1: change the entire tenor of the game. 785 00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:31,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, brutal. 786 00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,000 Speaker 1: We're going to do another mail bag. I didn't get 787 00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:36,600 Speaker 1: to all the questions today. We are going to do 788 00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:39,000 Speaker 1: another mail bag because they come flying in so we 789 00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:41,960 Speaker 1: want to get to as many as we can. As 790 00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:45,239 Speaker 1: a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three 791 00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:48,200 Speaker 1: sixty five and now new Bet three six five. Customers 792 00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:50,239 Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when 793 00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,840 Speaker 1: you bet five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites, 794 00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:55,960 Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars place to bet for five dollars to 795 00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:58,520 Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those 796 00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,080 Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, 797 00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,640 Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. At Bet 798 00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:05,600 Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older in 799 00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:11,280 Speaker 1: President Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, 800 00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:14,919 Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. 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Joe's on Weed 810 00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:49,400 Speaker 1: in Chicago RSVP in the link in the episode description. 811 00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:52,440 Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of 812 00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:54,920 Speaker 1: The Favorites on the Action of Work You two page Thursday, 813 00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:59,840 Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern with special guest Field Yates talking NFL. 814 00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:04,440 Speaker 1: Download us some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, 815 00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:06,719 Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is 816 00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:16,960 Speaker 1: a gift. Until next time. I Love You. Action Network 817 00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:21,120 Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. 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