1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: The Favorite podcast is presented by FanDuel Sports Book. There's 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: no better place to make every moment more than with FanDuel. 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,320 Speaker 1: I bet with FanDuel because they're safe and secure, they 4 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: offer great odds and markets across the NBA, n h L, 5 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: and more, and because it's fun to combine multiple bets 6 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: into same game parlays. So if you're new, just download 7 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 1: the FanDuel Sports Book app to get started now. Sign 8 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: up with promo code Favorites so they know I sent you. 9 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 1: You must be over in president in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, 10 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia or Louisiana. 11 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred next step or text 12 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,279 Speaker 1: next step to five three three four two in Arizona 13 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash 14 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 1: r G in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey. In Virginia one 15 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,520 Speaker 1: eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit 16 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 1: CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight seven 17 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: zero seven one one seven for confidential help in Michigan 18 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 1: one eight seventh s S T O P in Louisiana 19 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 1: called the Tennessee Red Line one eight eight nine nine, 20 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: or visit one eight gambler dot net in West Virginia. 21 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. 22 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 1: I am Chad Moment, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. 23 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 1: Big Big Things today, folks. Uh. Later on in the show, 24 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 1: I'm going to be joined by my bff, my companion, 25 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:39,959 Speaker 1: Mike Padre professional Better Simon Hunter. You guys have been 26 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:45,199 Speaker 1: sending us a boatload of questions. We're doing a mail 27 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 1: bag today. You've been sending us questions about everything from 28 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 1: bank roll management to what are our days like Simon 29 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: and I during NFL off seasons two? Do we like 30 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: our jobs? What else we do? All those kinds of things. Um, 31 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: So we're excited to answer those. They're really thoughtful questions. 32 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: We love when you guys send those in, and we 33 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 1: love being able to give honest, forth right answers. But first, Simon, 34 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 1: we got another one are the Odds segment. For those 35 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: of you who don't remember, we have started a new 36 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: segment called what are the Odds, where listeners send in 37 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 1: their most inane coincidences, ironies, whatever you want to call them, 38 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:38,359 Speaker 1: and we have our experts Sean Kerner and Nick Giffen 39 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 1: of our Predictive Analytics group figure out what the odds 40 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: are of something inane and crazy happening, and then they 41 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 1: come on they tell us what the odds are and 42 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 1: they explain their math. You can send all these in 43 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 1: podcasts at Action network dot com or just send them 44 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: directly to producer Matt Mitchell boy uncle Mitch uh on Twitter. 45 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: They're great. These are phenomenal. I love doing these, Simon, 46 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,079 Speaker 1: how much do you love these? It's hilarious. It's just 47 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: hilarious here in the stories and hearing what the actual 48 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: odds are for that said story, it's just amazing because 49 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: we'll read this story and this one is freaking insane, 50 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:22,959 Speaker 1: and then Nick Giffen is going to join us over 51 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 1: the phone from the wilds of Virginia. And Nick, by 52 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 1: the way, has more math degrees than you and I 53 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 1: have fingers and toes combined. Uh. And yet somehow he's 54 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 1: decided that what he wants to spend as I'm doing 55 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: is instead of solving the world's problems with math, he 56 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 1: wants to spend it on this and we're happy to happen. 57 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: Here is the question. This is from Christopher Frost listener, 58 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 1: Christopher Frost, I read this and I was astonished. I'm 59 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: meeting launched with two colleagues at work making conversation. None 60 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:58,040 Speaker 1: of us are particularly close and we don't know each 61 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: other particularly well. So as we make conversation about sports, 62 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: one colleague, Mitch, mentions that he has a massive collection 63 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 1: of sports illustrated magazines dating back forty years. Mitch remarks 64 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: that one of his first and favorite Sports Illustrated has 65 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 1: Michael Jordan's on the cover, back when he was at 66 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 1: U n C. When he mentions this, the other colleague 67 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:26,039 Speaker 1: sitted with us, Roger Google's the cover and then tells 68 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: Mitch to look at the letter to the Editors section 69 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 1: of the magazine when he gets home, because when Roger 70 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 1: was twelve years old, he sent a letter to s 71 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: I about a hockey player who was suspended for accidentally 72 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 1: tripping a referee, which was published in that edition. Mitch 73 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: was amazed, and when he returned home he found the magazine, 74 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 1: opened it and saw Roger's letter right there in print 75 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: from November. The following day, I run into Mitch. This 76 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,599 Speaker 1: is Christopher, who is the I? He tells me he 77 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 1: had just spoken to Roger and discovered something even crazier. 78 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 1: Mitch had a daughter who was a junior at Ohio State. Remember, 79 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,039 Speaker 1: Mitch is the guy who collects the s I s 80 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 1: not particularly good friends with any people he was talking to. 81 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 1: Roger is the guy who wrote the letter of the 82 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 1: editor that was in the s SI. Now Mitch has 83 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: a daughter who was a junior at Ohio State. Roger 84 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 1: had a son, also a freshman at Ohio State. And 85 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 1: when Roger called his son and mentioned the Crazy Sports 86 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 1: Illustrated coincident work, his son said that he might actually 87 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: know Mitch's daughter. So now two guys who worked together 88 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 1: barely know each other find out that one is collecting 89 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 1: Sports Illustrated that the other one had written a letter 90 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 1: to the editor when he was twelve. And now it 91 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 1: turns out their kids both go to Ohio State and 92 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 1: know each other. What are the odds on that? Right? 93 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: Here we go, as it turns out Roger's son was 94 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: pledging a fraternity Ohio State, and as part of the process, 95 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 1: he was required to create a daily puppy pledge pick, 96 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 1: which was a picture of a puppy with a positive 97 00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 1: motivational message, and he must send this puppy picture to 98 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 1: a designated upper classman sorority student in a partnering process 99 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: that is entirely random. You guessed it. Roger's son was 100 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 1: partnered with Mitch's daughter, a fact they never ever would 101 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 1: have learned if the topic of old sports illustrated covers 102 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 1: hadn't come up. Wow, Nick Giffen, come on, brother, give 103 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 1: us your take. Hi everybody, Hi afternoon. This this one's 104 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 1: a doozy. We we essentially have a three partner here. 105 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 1: We have the magazine coincidence, we have the going to 106 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 1: Ohio State coincidence, and then we have the fact that 107 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 1: they knew each other through this random process. So we'll 108 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: break down all three of those. First, Let's start with 109 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:58,840 Speaker 1: the magazines. And given that this was a collection from 110 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 1: over forty years ago and these guys are working together, 111 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: we can assumedly put this in an age range where 112 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 1: where these men are in let's say the forty five 113 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: to sixty age range. If I'm wrong, I apologize at 114 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 1: five overestimated ages. But given that's what was said in 115 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: the story, we're gonna go with about forty five to 116 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: sixty year olds. So what how many forty five to 117 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: six year olds that are alive now, we're there in 118 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 1: uh you know, the nineteen eighties when this Michael Jordan's 119 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: cover was out there. And we also have to count 120 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 1: for the people that are no longer alive today because 121 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 1: if they had written a letter to the editor, uh, 122 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: this coincidence may not have come up. So we came 123 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: up with a population of forty five six year olds 124 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 1: alive today between thirty and thirty five millions, and then 125 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 1: if you count those that aren't alive, we stretch it 126 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 1: up just to be conservative to fifty million, and also 127 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: to have nice round numbers. So let's say we're working 128 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: with a population of fifty million, which would put a 129 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: hard cap on the magazine number. That still doesn't answer 130 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 1: our question. Uh let's say, you know, we've got several 131 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: years of sports illustrated magazines and they came out what weekly, 132 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 1: and there's maybe two to five leditors to the editor 133 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 1: per magazine, and a lot of these people, uh, you know, 134 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 1: could have written multiple letters to the editor. So we 135 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 1: put it about potentially two hundred fifty unique writers out 136 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: of a fifty million population, So we would take two 137 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: fifty million. But then how many times has he told 138 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:34,200 Speaker 1: this magazine you know collection Sports Illustrated magazine collection icebreaker story. 139 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: So we put it over a five year frame of 140 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: maybe around a hundred people have heard this story. So 141 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 1: when you take two hundred fifty fifty million multiplied by 142 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:46,959 Speaker 1: one for the magazine part, we get about one in 143 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: two thousand chants of you know, this guy having a 144 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 1: collection and the other guy writing into one of these 145 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 1: not magazines. Now, we could boil it down further and say, well, 146 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,199 Speaker 1: are the oddsios is exact favorite, But I feel like 147 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 1: it probably would have come up in general if we 148 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: have a Sports to the Series collection from the eighties 149 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 1: and this guy wrote into you know, s I and eighties, 150 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 1: they probably would have figured out as well. So that's 151 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 1: why we're sticking with one in two thousand on that part. 152 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: So now we need to go to the fact that 153 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: their kids both go to Ohio State. And this is 154 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 1: where Sean and I we tried to throw a lot 155 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: of cold water on this um. But the fact that 156 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 1: they both go to Ohio State and they work at 157 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 1: the same place probably means they're located in the same place. 158 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 1: I would guess in Ohio. That seems to be most likely. 159 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 1: So Sean and I rolled with that assumption. Doing that, 160 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 1: we were able to calculate the population of of uh, 161 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:44,679 Speaker 1: you know, in state kids and who goes to Ohio State, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. 162 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 1: What we found out is that there's about one and 163 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: twenty chance an adult male in the forty five to 164 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 1: sixty eight range has a kid if they live in Ohio. 165 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 1: How's the kid going to Ohio State? However, that's a 166 00:09:57,520 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 1: random sample that would include if you ask the farmer 167 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 1: in the middle of the country, or you know, asked 168 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: people of various income levels, etcetera. So the fact that 169 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 1: they're at this specific job, the kids pledge sororities and 170 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:13,440 Speaker 1: fraternity you know, there's there's a little bit of a 171 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:16,680 Speaker 1: selection bias here. And we're referring referring to last week's 172 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 1: story where we're gonna call this the chop house factor 173 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 1: or the chop factor. There's a lot of underlying chop here. So, uh, 174 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:27,319 Speaker 1: you know, we just have to kind of gues estimate 175 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: as best we can. Instead of one in twenty, we 176 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 1: think the fact that they're working in the same place, uh, 177 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 1: you know, they're all sports fans. The kids went to 178 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:37,839 Speaker 1: stories and fraternities there's probably a lot higher chance than 179 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 1: one in twenty that two random adult men would both 180 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 1: have kids going to Ohio States. So we put it 181 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: one in five for each. So one in five times 182 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 1: one in five is one twenty five. So that's the 183 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 1: probability of both of these men who have now connected 184 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: through this magazine also having kids that went to Ohio State. 185 00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: Now we need to figure out what's the probability those 186 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 1: kids knew each other. And yes, this was a randomized 187 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 1: sorority process, but we also would have brought this story 188 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:07,719 Speaker 1: up if they had had a class together, or they 189 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 1: had a mutual friend in the dorm together, etcetera, etcetera. 190 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: So we just wanted to calculate the probability that two 191 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:16,199 Speaker 1: people to students at Ohio State would know each other. 192 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: And we said, well, given that they're both in sorority fraternity's, uh, 193 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 1: they probably run into a lot of people over their time. 194 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 1: So we took essentially the population of Ohio State. UH said, 195 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 1: they've running around three hundred four hundred people that you know, 196 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:37,679 Speaker 1: they could probably recall knowing, and came up with about 197 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: one in a hundred and thirty three one hundred fifty 198 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 1: chants that they would know each other. So you take 199 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 1: one fifty times one times one and two thousands and 200 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 1: we come up with a number in let's say the 201 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 1: six to seven and a half million range. But we're 202 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: not done there. We think there's still some underlying chop right, 203 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 1: Like the fact that they're in sororities and fraternities probably 204 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 1: means they're more likely to be sports fans. That they're 205 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: more likely to be sports fans. Their parents are more 206 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: likely to be sports fans. That means their parents are 207 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 1: more likely to have Sports Illustrated magazine collections and more 208 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: likely to write in the Sports Illustrated magazine. So all 209 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 1: of this underlying chop is is something we can't really quantify. Right, 210 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 1: There's this correlated factor, but it probably brings it down 211 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 1: to around we would say three to five million range, 212 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: so one in three to one in five million range, 213 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 1: and I'd actually even air towards a little bit lower 214 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: side than that, but we are probably talking close to 215 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 1: a one in a million events. All Right, I'm really 216 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 1: glad you said that, because Matt Mitchell, you know, I 217 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:49,079 Speaker 1: love this segment. I think it's great. The problem is 218 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 1: outside of sort of my professional life, whether it's as 219 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 1: a media executive, a content creator, someone who is in 220 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 1: betting community. I want mystery and romanticism. I want impossibilities 221 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: in my narratives. I want wow in my storytelling. We 222 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,959 Speaker 1: get a story like this from Christopher Frost, which is amazing, 223 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: and then we got like the fucking geeks coming on 224 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 1: and pouring cold water on everything. I'm glad that we 225 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 1: stayed in like the north of one million chances, because 226 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:31,839 Speaker 1: if you had said to me at the end of 227 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: the day, we really think it's like one in ten thousand, 228 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 1: I would have had to reach through the phone and 229 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:46,679 Speaker 1: you know, been unpleasant. Nick. Yeah, well, thankfully we don't 230 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 1: get the unpleasant trees here, because this is I mean, 231 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 1: like I said at the start, this one is an 232 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,840 Speaker 1: absolute doozy and it really is a three parter. And 233 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:57,559 Speaker 1: when you add all these extra factors you start multiplying 234 00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 1: them together, that really starts to almost exponentiate the odds here. Simon, 235 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 1: do you have thoughts on where we landed on this. 236 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 1: I was honestly hoping for the ending of being like 237 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 1: and now they're married. It's heartbreaking. Then my man couldn't 238 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:15,079 Speaker 1: close the deal like serendipity. He had all the signs 239 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 1: pointed to it, and it didn't happen. I guess I'm 240 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: a little heartbroken. I was waiting for a better ending chat. 241 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: But it's still pretty interesting. Dude, the kids a team. 242 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 1: He's eighteen, she's probably there's still time. And by the way, 243 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 1: you know, I love love, huge fan of it. Nobody 244 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 1: loves it more than me. Like it's a very good 245 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 1: possibility that the dad that Christopher Frost here's this story 246 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: from the podcast, tells his new best friends Roger and 247 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 1: Mitch about the relationship to the Odds and the magazine 248 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: and their kids. And then the kids start hanging out together. 249 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 1: And who cares that she's a little bit older, that 250 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 1: she might graduate while he's a sophomore. And then it 251 00:14:57,680 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: could be two years of a long distance love affair. 252 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: Maybe she's going to get a job in Cleveland, maybe 253 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 1: she gets a job in Cincinnati. Maybe she gets your 254 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 1: job in New York and he goes to visit her 255 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 1: every once in a while. Who knows, who cares? That's 256 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: the beauty this could this could be the beginning of 257 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:15,760 Speaker 1: the romance. You're the best. Chad's such a romantic. I 258 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: am a romantic. By the way, you met you. You 259 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 1: you said a keyword here Serendipity, which was an incredible 260 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 1: movie with John Cusack, and I believe it was Kate Beckinsale, 261 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 1: who is phenomenal. Is that what she writes her number 262 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 1: in the book? Yes? That, And I feel like we 263 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 1: have to have Nick and Sean. They gotta figure out 264 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 1: the odds for that, because that is actually a fronone 265 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. Can we get Nick and Shawn to do that? Sure? Sure, 266 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 1: our audience has been begging for it. We can be 267 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 1: expanding this too. You're such a stickler for what the 268 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 1: audience wants. We could be expanding this into like fictional realms. 269 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 1: Couldn't agree more? Sounds great? Oh my god, Nick, Nick 270 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 1: is totally Nick Giffen predictive analysts and math maven for 271 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: the Action Network. Oh my god, I'm so glad we're 272 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: doing this. Nick has one of the best media setups 273 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 1: when he's in his home, and I'm super excited for 274 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: him for him to relocate and get it all settled again, 275 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 1: because he's the true pro. And I appreciate you coming on, buddy, 276 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 1: Thanks for having us as always, eisi super fun to do, 277 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: so keep them coming, Keep them coming. Keep them coming listeners, 278 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 1: what are the odds? Send them along? Podcasts at Action 279 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 1: Network dot com is the best way to do it. 280 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: You can always DM me DM Matt Mitchell, but that's 281 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: the best way to do it. Pretty good stuff. It 282 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 1: makes me happy. Simon, you would that you would herd 283 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 1: out on that I got. I kind of got lost 284 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 1: midway through it because there's just so many numbers are 285 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: probabilities starting around, but then I came back around. 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In Michigan called the Tennessee Redline 313 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,440 Speaker 1: one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine, 314 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 1: or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Simon, Yes, sir, 315 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: It's time for us to get to our reader questions. 316 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 1: It was a great mix. It was a great mix 317 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:44,240 Speaker 1: of people who wanted to know real knitty gritty stuff 318 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 1: and people who wanted to know some more personal stuff. 319 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 1: I already know that, like Matt Mitchell likes this to 320 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 1: be a very focused podcast, he does not like when 321 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 1: we veer off topic. You can tell by the fact 322 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 1: I wanted to do the odds of serendipity and he's like, 323 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:03,639 Speaker 1: I fucking hate you. So I'm forcing him to let 324 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: us include some more personal questions because if it was 325 00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:11,440 Speaker 1: up to him, it would only be very utility driven stuff. Okay, 326 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 1: that's fair. Here we go. I think this is a 327 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:18,680 Speaker 1: good one for you. This is from MO two bank 328 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:23,119 Speaker 1: roll management question. I had a winning NFL record last season, 329 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 1: going seventy six and sixty four. I still lost money. 330 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: I bet too much on losing favorites and not enough 331 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 1: on winning underdogs. Wondering if my distribution is off. If 332 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 1: you had one hundred dollars, how would you distribute between 333 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: a minus one forty teaser, a minus one parlay, a 334 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 1: minus one ten straight bet on a favorite, and a 335 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: plus one thirty dog or we know the answer to 336 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,920 Speaker 1: this question? Should I stop playing parlays and teasers where 337 00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,720 Speaker 1: I typically lose the most. Let me answer the first question. 338 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:01,639 Speaker 1: Let me answered that last question first, and then Simon, 339 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:03,440 Speaker 1: I want you to get into the distribution. I'll give 340 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:07,199 Speaker 1: you second to do the math. Stopped playing the parleys 341 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 1: and teasers last year when I played only the games 342 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,119 Speaker 1: that were straight bets, where I felt like I was 343 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 1: going with my principles based on conversations Simon and I had, 344 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,479 Speaker 1: based on what I know about the market, overvaluation on 345 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:25,160 Speaker 1: one side or the other, etcetera. I was winning, and 346 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 1: I was down for much of the year because I 347 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:32,879 Speaker 1: was spending way too much on parlays and teasers and 348 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: way too much on like these money line around robins 349 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 1: that Simon and I would do, and I was giving 350 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 1: back all my winnings. And it wasn't until the playoffs 351 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: where I went side player props and just individual bets 352 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:45,640 Speaker 1: that I made it out back and ended up having 353 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 1: a winning year. I say, get out of the parley 354 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 1: and teaser business. Yeah, I mean, it's all about what 355 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:57,360 Speaker 1: you're looking for now. It's a tough question, buddy. Um. 356 00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: I I advised people just a bet straight because personally 357 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,640 Speaker 1: that's what works for me. And I would say about 358 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 1: nine other professionals. But I don't know. I doubt you're 359 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 1: trying to beat like a pro. But if you are, 360 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 1: that's that's how it is, man. It's not some sexy 361 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 1: get rich scheme. It's a grind where, yeah, if you're 362 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,439 Speaker 1: starting out, I would just do one unit, So if 363 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: one unit to use a hundred dollars, I would just 364 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 1: do everything you're doing that one unit. Maybe bump it 365 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 1: up when you think you have a good read. But 366 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,440 Speaker 1: to me, I broke it down here. I'm a dog 367 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,399 Speaker 1: better with the NFL. NFL is very unique in that sense, 368 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,879 Speaker 1: and I'm a big believer. If you're trying to keep 369 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 1: it simple, throw three units on the number, so plus six, 370 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 1: plus seven whenever you're gonna get, And then you throw 371 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,440 Speaker 1: half a unit or one unit on the money line 372 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,919 Speaker 1: and like that. If you just stick to that and 373 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 1: you pick your spots, you build a bankroll. It's it's 374 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 1: really not that hard. The hard part is you, like, say, 375 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 1: we win really big for first three weeks, then you 376 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 1: start upping up your stake. Then you start doing these 377 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 1: parlays and you start doing more teasers again, and you 378 00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,199 Speaker 1: start just messing with your money instead of sticking to 379 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 1: what got you up for those first three weeks. UM. 380 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:04,640 Speaker 1: So when it comes to money management, there's a there's 381 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,360 Speaker 1: a million different ways to do it. But if you're 382 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 1: just starting out and you're just trying to build a 383 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 1: bank roll, I would take a nice and easy and 384 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 1: just do one, one unit at a time because you're 385 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:15,639 Speaker 1: kind of just trying to figure out the rhythm of 386 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 1: the sport you're betting. It's like most pros that do 387 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,240 Speaker 1: it for real five into five years into them be 388 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,480 Speaker 1: a professional better. They really start getting the money management down, 389 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 1: so like they might have lost ten years before then 390 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 1: came a pro and it took another five years to 391 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,880 Speaker 1: really fagre out to manager their money. So there really 392 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,440 Speaker 1: is no one answer, sadly mode, but I would say 393 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: be patient and just understand you're not gonna get rich quick. 394 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,679 Speaker 1: It's it's just a very grinding, grinding thing to do 395 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:48,879 Speaker 1: sports betting. Uh. From might Oh and from our friends 396 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,239 Speaker 1: at full Slate. Two related questions, I think these are 397 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:54,479 Speaker 1: better for you, Simon, is there an industry standard on 398 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: how runners are compensated? And if you ever had a 399 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 1: major issue with a runner miscounting fat to incorrect wage 400 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: replacement et cetera. Of course to the second one. Yeah, 401 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,440 Speaker 1: I mean there's always gonna be a little issues here 402 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,440 Speaker 1: and there, but I would say it's always with the new, 403 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 1: the new people breaking into it. That's why it's really 404 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,679 Speaker 1: hard to get in as a new person, as a runner, 405 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:18,439 Speaker 1: because some of these people are being handed bags of 406 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 1: cash and they've never had a bag of cash and 407 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:24,440 Speaker 1: their entire life, and you know, it's easy to pull 408 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 1: a runner. So, I mean we've talked a little bit 409 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 1: about it, like getting guys driver's license, getting their parents 410 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,959 Speaker 1: home address, getting their parents phone number, like people they 411 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,399 Speaker 1: care about. I mean, it's it gets a little murky, 412 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 1: but they're talking about a lot of money, people handing 413 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,880 Speaker 1: a lot of money. So yeah, I mean I've had 414 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,360 Speaker 1: my own drama with runners, but nothing compared to other 415 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 1: people in this industry. I've been very lucky where I've 416 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,399 Speaker 1: either had runners, I worked with other pros and I 417 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:53,160 Speaker 1: knew them already they're good people, or I've hired people 418 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 1: personally they're just very loyal to me. So um yeah, 419 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 1: nothing nothing to nothing too bad for me. Um how 420 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,680 Speaker 1: they're conversated individually, different for everyone. Uh, what are you 421 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 1: looking to do? Do Do you want to run just NFL. 422 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,919 Speaker 1: Do you want to run all four major sports? You 423 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 1: want to only run soccer and cricket, which means you're 424 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 1: all up at weird hours of the night, um, all 425 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:18,400 Speaker 1: the time. It's it's kind of hard to say. Um. 426 00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:20,200 Speaker 1: I'd say, if you're you're just trying to get into 427 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 1: the industry. I ran for picks like I Honestly, I 428 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 1: always offered money, but I would just rather run and 429 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,440 Speaker 1: get really good professional betters picks and use their picks 430 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 1: to mild build my own bank a wollt now I 431 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 1: talked about with Chad on the show. I went broke 432 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,679 Speaker 1: a bunch of times doing that, but I was again, 433 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 1: I was just newing the industry again, getting my feet wet. 434 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 1: I was trying to figure out my own style. So 435 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: for me as a runner, I didn't get paid probably 436 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 1: for like a year or two at least when I 437 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:51,159 Speaker 1: first started out. Most guys, if you're lucky, um, you know, 438 00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 1: you might get a salary, But I would say most 439 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 1: work off tips. Like you're you're running a bag of money, 440 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 1: They're gonna take care of you. But again, it's it's 441 00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,200 Speaker 1: just hard getting your foot in the door. But most 442 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 1: of these guys are if they're willing to spend money 443 00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 1: on a runner, they're gonna take care of you. So 444 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,360 Speaker 1: I would say, at worst, at minimum you might get 445 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 1: twenty K for running one sport for a season. Uh, 446 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 1: we got got, we got so many good questions, Matt Mitchell, 447 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:21,400 Speaker 1: We're gonna have to do a second uh mail bag pod. 448 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 1: This one's from Conrad Simon. You and I are going 449 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 1: to have completely different opinions on this our NFL all 450 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:33,160 Speaker 1: day n f T s complete junk or something fans 451 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:38,399 Speaker 1: will appreciate and trade for years to come. You have 452 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,119 Speaker 1: thoughts on n f T s. I have thoughts and 453 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,520 Speaker 1: n f T s you go first. I think n 454 00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:47,880 Speaker 1: f T s are cool. Um, they maybe someday will 455 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,240 Speaker 1: have value again values all what people give this stuff, 456 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,480 Speaker 1: I mean everything, Nothing really has value unless we give 457 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 1: it value or it takes incredible work to make said products. 458 00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,080 Speaker 1: So I don't know what to think of that n 459 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: f T stuff. I mean, me and Chad love the 460 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:05,439 Speaker 1: basketball stuff, but that fizzled out very quick. Um. I 461 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,120 Speaker 1: just still think we're just so far ahead of what 462 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:12,239 Speaker 1: they're projecting for this stuff. But yeah, me personally, if 463 00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 1: I'm investing money into hard cards like buying Pokemon cards 464 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 1: or baseball cards or baseball cards. I'm still doing hard 465 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: hard to copy over digital like I still bought every year. 466 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 1: I do the same thing, which is no secret. I 467 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,880 Speaker 1: buy all the rookie cards I can. Of the quarterbacks drafted, 468 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 1: So the five quarterbacks that drafted last year, I got 469 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:34,880 Speaker 1: all them year before, which is looking like gold. Joe 470 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 1: Burrow justin Herbert to Jalen Hurts, I mean that's that 471 00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:40,919 Speaker 1: to me is keeping it safe. But the n f 472 00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,240 Speaker 1: T stuff not not for me right now with investing 473 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:49,800 Speaker 1: my money. Simon mentioned like we for a minute, we 474 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:54,840 Speaker 1: got really into NBA Top Shop, and I think when 475 00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 1: it comes to sports and f T s, you gotta 476 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,919 Speaker 1: think about them the same way you think about the 477 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:05,159 Speaker 1: hard cards, as Simon just said, by the ones that 478 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 1: you think are interesting, by the ones that you think 479 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:11,240 Speaker 1: you would like to own. Don't think about, oh, this 480 00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:15,399 Speaker 1: will be a great investment one day. Don't overspend in 481 00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,640 Speaker 1: a hot market thinking you're going to turn that over 482 00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:25,719 Speaker 1: because it's way too unpredictable. It's way too event driven, 483 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:30,959 Speaker 1: career driven, and honestly taste driven, and it's not something 484 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:35,760 Speaker 1: that has real underlying metrics or fundamentals that you can 485 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:42,160 Speaker 1: rely on as an investment. Um. So for me, it's 486 00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,640 Speaker 1: not a question of are they complete junk. I think 487 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,159 Speaker 1: it's a question of if you love the NFL you 488 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,359 Speaker 1: wanna be a part of sort of the next phase 489 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:54,359 Speaker 1: of collectibles at a price you can forward, then you 490 00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 1: should do it. I loved opening the top shot packs, 491 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,399 Speaker 1: but I just got sick of seeing the price saying 492 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,880 Speaker 1: in the market being so frenzied, and then it created 493 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:05,880 Speaker 1: and it's just not that interesting to me anymore. So 494 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 1: you can't do it because you think you're gonna get 495 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:13,199 Speaker 1: rich off it. It's like betting. That's my take. Uh. 496 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 1: When it comes to the other n f t s, 497 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 1: forget about it, board apes or whatever they are, Like, 498 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,400 Speaker 1: I know people love them. To me, it's am it 499 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 1: feels so arbitrary. It feels so driven by a taste 500 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:30,880 Speaker 1: for something that I don't see. Uh. I get Crypto, 501 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 1: I'm in crypto. I'm not uncomfortable with crypto. The other 502 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,439 Speaker 1: n f t s like, it's just not it's not 503 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 1: my bag personally, and it just again it's um, yeah, 504 00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,280 Speaker 1: we'll keep it moving, but it's just it's just different 505 00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:45,959 Speaker 1: where we don't get n f t s because it's 506 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 1: too early. It's the same thing with the Internet. It's 507 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:49,800 Speaker 1: like have you ever seen the old news Clippers and 508 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: then talking about l L and the Internet and the 509 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 1: ninth they're the late nineties, early two thousands, or like 510 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,600 Speaker 1: what is the Internet? It's the same thing right now, 511 00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:58,240 Speaker 1: the n f T S. It's just we're very early 512 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 1: in it. So I don't have an hour to talk 513 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 1: about it. But it's UM, it's whatever you make it. 514 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 1: It's art is whatever someone's willing to pay for it 515 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,920 Speaker 1: gives it the value. So all right, We're gonna do 516 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 1: two more questions, UM, and then we will do another 517 00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:17,320 Speaker 1: mail back because we have so many more from Sheila Simon. 518 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 1: You start, what interested you most about a career in 519 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:27,960 Speaker 1: sports betting? Are you satisfied with how it has turned out? Um? 520 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 1: What interested me in it? I always was into it. 521 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 1: I can tell you that. I mean, my earliest memory 522 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:35,640 Speaker 1: I think I talked on the show was the Tennessee 523 00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 1: Rams Super Bowl and I had Tennessee on a bet 524 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 1: against my brother. Again, it might have been for a dollar. 525 00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 1: I was a little kid, and the Tennessee gut got 526 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,600 Speaker 1: tackled at the one yard line, and I just remember 527 00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,800 Speaker 1: it just being pure mayhem, where it was just like 528 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:50,400 Speaker 1: a rush. As a little kid, I remember feeling that 529 00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,040 Speaker 1: rush of like I don't care about either of these teams, 530 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,000 Speaker 1: but I care about winning that dollar and I got 531 00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:59,200 Speaker 1: stopped to the one yard line. So I definitely I 532 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,160 Speaker 1: think that was something that started really young for me 533 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,400 Speaker 1: with sports betting, but I was always into sports. I 534 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: grow up playing sports, so it just it came together. 535 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 1: Where as I got older, I loved math and when 536 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,040 Speaker 1: I met my you know, my handler and my boss Bob, 537 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,480 Speaker 1: it was kind of like not that he had a 538 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,520 Speaker 1: time machine, but he pretty much described it that way. 539 00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:19,840 Speaker 1: It's like it's all in the numbers. It's like, don't 540 00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,720 Speaker 1: don't even look at the schedule or the teams or 541 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 1: their what what their record is. It's like, just take 542 00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:27,959 Speaker 1: a week by week, look at the numbers, look at 543 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:29,800 Speaker 1: the look at the matchups, and that's how you find 544 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 1: the value. So it's definitely gone way better than could 545 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 1: ever imagined. And that's why when people asking you how 546 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 1: to get into it, I say, don't do it because 547 00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:39,680 Speaker 1: it's like I don't know if I came in with 548 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,240 Speaker 1: twenty five guys there might be three of us left 549 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,400 Speaker 1: that are doing this for real, and only two of 550 00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 1: us are doing like pro ship. The one guy is 551 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,520 Speaker 1: a grinder, like living in a one bedroom studio in Vegas, 552 00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 1: driving his shitty car he still has had from two 553 00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 1: thousand two. It's like, not everyone makes it the same way, 554 00:30:56,840 --> 00:31:00,440 Speaker 1: So it's it's tough. If you had told we dream 555 00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 1: at your best scenario, I could never have dreamed the 556 00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 1: way my life and betting has turned out. I mean, 557 00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 1: it's just been again a lot of work and sacrifice. 558 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't come on here a bit about 559 00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:12,800 Speaker 1: my life because I know people have real ship going on. 560 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 1: But it's it's not easy. But yeah, it's like you can. 561 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:19,360 Speaker 1: I couldn't have dreamed a better, better way from my 562 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 1: left to go on this whole betting spear. How about you, Chad? 563 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 1: I would say, I've told the story before, so I'll 564 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:28,080 Speaker 1: keep it as succinct as possible. I was an editor 565 00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,880 Speaker 1: at ESPN, the magazine in someone has signed me a 566 00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:35,880 Speaker 1: story about who was setting the points bread for March 567 00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:39,840 Speaker 1: Madness in Las Vegas. And this is right when offshore 568 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:45,000 Speaker 1: internet online betting was becoming popular. So the Stardust Hotel 569 00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 1: in Las Vegas, which was the the hotel that was 570 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 1: featured in the book, in the movie Casino like, it 571 00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 1: was the premier destination for sports betting. You'd get lines 572 00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 1: out the door for people wanting to bet those lines, 573 00:31:57,960 --> 00:31:59,800 Speaker 1: and that was what sort of set the agenda for 574 00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:03,280 Speaker 1: the entire country. There was a domino effect. Whoever said 575 00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 1: those lines, that's what the rest of the market followed 576 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 1: in Vegas and then how word, every illegal bookmaker all 577 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 1: around the country. Right. So I wrote a story about 578 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 1: this guy Joe Lupo and Bob Scucci who used to 579 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 1: be the co host of the pod years ago, and uh, 580 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 1: that story became the book The Odds, in which I 581 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 1: spent six months in Vegas tracking the bookmakers and a 582 00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 1: professional better named Alan Boston, who at the time was 583 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,880 Speaker 1: the best college basketball better in the world, literally betting 584 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,840 Speaker 1: more than a million dollars a day on college basketball. 585 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,400 Speaker 1: And I was into it, not because I was into betting. 586 00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:42,280 Speaker 1: I loved, as I noted before the romance, the language 587 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 1: wise guys sharps, betting dimes, betting nickels, like, all of 588 00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,560 Speaker 1: that was fascinating to me. And I loved the interplay 589 00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,800 Speaker 1: between the bookmakers and the professionals and sort of there 590 00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:57,480 Speaker 1: was a four hundred million dollar market, four hundred billion 591 00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:00,720 Speaker 1: dollar market. I mean that was living in the shadows 592 00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 1: that everywhere around the country was impacted by whether they 593 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,160 Speaker 1: knew it or not. That's what interested me, and that 594 00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,680 Speaker 1: just evolved into writing columns. I was at ESPN writing 595 00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,720 Speaker 1: columns for ESPN dot com, doing the podcast for ESPN, 596 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,400 Speaker 1: doing stuff on television for ESPN. Then when I became 597 00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:18,560 Speaker 1: an executive, you know, launching the betting be at ESPN 598 00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 1: and hiring people to do it, and then ultimately getting 599 00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,600 Speaker 1: called by the Churning Group to help them launch Action, 600 00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:29,320 Speaker 1: which has been just a crazy, incredibly satisfying experience from 601 00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:34,000 Speaker 1: a personal perspective, professional perspective, financial perspective. So I'm very 602 00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,080 Speaker 1: pleased with how it turned out. It's funny how you 603 00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:39,000 Speaker 1: worried that where It's like, I honestly had no idea 604 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,680 Speaker 1: there were professional sports betters. I had seen whatever is 605 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 1: the Two for the Money whatever the movie was, McConaughey 606 00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 1: and al Paccino. Yeah, I gotta say, if I learned anything, 607 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,160 Speaker 1: it's that gambling is not your problem, not even close. 608 00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,479 Speaker 1: You see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 609 00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 1: go to win. When we go to gamble, we go 610 00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:59,959 Speaker 1: to lose subconsciously. But all I knew was a professional 611 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 1: poker players like I watched brought as a poker growing up. 612 00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,520 Speaker 1: And I'll just never forget when when I talked to Bobby, 613 00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:07,440 Speaker 1: that's what he told me. He did, I go, what 614 00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:09,320 Speaker 1: the hell do you mean? Like you've got the Farmer's Almanac, 615 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,520 Speaker 1: Like how does one make a living off sports betting? 616 00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:14,640 Speaker 1: So that that's cool that you came in from that 617 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:16,800 Speaker 1: angle of like you knew about the world before you 618 00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,279 Speaker 1: even got into it, where I literally didn't know a 619 00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,480 Speaker 1: single thing about any of it until I got into it. 620 00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:25,840 Speaker 1: This is how cosmically connected you and I are, Signment, 621 00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:28,359 Speaker 1: It's why we are kindred spirits. When you were just 622 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:34,040 Speaker 1: a young boy barely getting rid of your English accent 623 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:38,319 Speaker 1: moving here from across the pond, uh and watching that 624 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:42,279 Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans St. Louis Rams game uh and loving the 625 00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 1: excitement of it. That was one of the pinnacle moments 626 00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:47,400 Speaker 1: in the odds because I happened to be at the 627 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,440 Speaker 1: Stardust reporting in that season. That's the season that I 628 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:56,279 Speaker 1: did it, and that was season two thousand, Super Bowl 629 00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:00,040 Speaker 1: rams were two one, and it actually had his the 630 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,760 Speaker 1: Oracle change to how bookmakers set odds on NFL teams. 631 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:08,120 Speaker 1: Because the bookmakers were so overexposed on the rams, they 632 00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:10,560 Speaker 1: ended up losing millions of dollars even though they won 633 00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,440 Speaker 1: the game because they had because the rams covered, they 634 00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:17,520 Speaker 1: end up losing millions of dollars and UM on the 635 00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,680 Speaker 1: game and uh on the on the rams. And so 636 00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:24,120 Speaker 1: they started shrinking the future's odds. And they really don't 637 00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:27,359 Speaker 1: make teams that long anymore, and they certainly don't take 638 00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:31,360 Speaker 1: big numbers on those long odds for context that that 639 00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:34,239 Speaker 1: would be betting Houston to win it all this year. Yes, 640 00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,080 Speaker 1: that's how I'm saying that is That's how insane it was. 641 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,680 Speaker 1: And then and like you gotta remember, Kurt Warner was 642 00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:47,799 Speaker 1: a backup quarterback. All right. Last question from Kellen what sophomware? 643 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,280 Speaker 1: What software does Simon used for his modeling? Excel, Python, 644 00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:56,239 Speaker 1: something else? Oh man, that's hard to say, because, like 645 00:35:56,840 --> 00:36:00,920 Speaker 1: I I did used to do sell but I stopped 646 00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,960 Speaker 1: doing that. Um, I've got a lot of model questions. 647 00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:10,600 Speaker 1: I keep telling people that, I mean, the model is 648 00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:13,160 Speaker 1: important for sure to what I do. It is very 649 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:15,359 Speaker 1: important to get a number, get a base on, and 650 00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:17,600 Speaker 1: go and work off of those numbers. I mean, me 651 00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:19,279 Speaker 1: and you had talked about all the time. That's super Bowl. 652 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:20,960 Speaker 1: That was a big deal of this past super Bowl. 653 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,239 Speaker 1: We we made the line three. We believed in that 654 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,839 Speaker 1: line being three for two weeks. We stuck to it 655 00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,319 Speaker 1: and the game landed on three. Like that's the dream 656 00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:33,000 Speaker 1: for building a system, But for most people out there, 657 00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:36,120 Speaker 1: it's that's like you can have to be really really 658 00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,960 Speaker 1: smart with math, and I don't think enough people, like 659 00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,680 Speaker 1: especially people listening to the show, do that. So like 660 00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,279 Speaker 1: when people ask me, what's the most basic system to do? 661 00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,920 Speaker 1: Rank all thirty two teams and like that's that's literally 662 00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,160 Speaker 1: how most systems are done. Like, yeah, you want to 663 00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,600 Speaker 1: break down, like I do, what the get off speed 664 00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,480 Speaker 1: of different offensive lineman is on turf first crass or 665 00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,000 Speaker 1: what d lineman have the fastest three cone drill? And 666 00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,880 Speaker 1: how does that translate to them every year being faster 667 00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,879 Speaker 1: than the offensive linement, Or which linebackers play better off 668 00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:08,239 Speaker 1: ball or in coverage. It's like that's murky. So yeah, 669 00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,040 Speaker 1: I don't know. People are asking all the time about 670 00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,799 Speaker 1: building out a system, and I told I told people. 671 00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:14,960 Speaker 1: The basics for me is, you know, I use three 672 00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:16,879 Speaker 1: different websites and I try to get a median number 673 00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,120 Speaker 1: from all three for each number I use. And I 674 00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:23,320 Speaker 1: use that just because if you're just using one site, um, 675 00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:26,240 Speaker 1: you know, if you want to just use pro Football, 676 00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:31,000 Speaker 1: their numbers are great. I don't know. I like to 677 00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,120 Speaker 1: have more than just one website because there is no 678 00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:37,160 Speaker 1: one answer to all this. So yeah, for building out systems, 679 00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:40,319 Speaker 1: people would keep wanting advice on that. I would say, 680 00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:42,440 Speaker 1: keep researching online and try to find a free one 681 00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:44,359 Speaker 1: to use as a base and then build from there. 682 00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,480 Speaker 1: If you eventually want to buy one off a website 683 00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,920 Speaker 1: or buy off another person online, I would do it 684 00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:51,759 Speaker 1: once you're ready to really build it out because it 685 00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:55,279 Speaker 1: is very time consuming. Before we break, we're doing a 686 00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,200 Speaker 1: speed round. Matt Mitchell. You've got a bunch of questions Simon, 687 00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:01,600 Speaker 1: and I will answer with one sentence. First reaction, Matt Mitchell, go, 688 00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:06,560 Speaker 1: if Simon could pretend to hold any college degree, what 689 00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,439 Speaker 1: would it be and where would it be from? Oh man, 690 00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,960 Speaker 1: my dream used to be to go to Pepperdine and 691 00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,600 Speaker 1: I would be I guess business major. Just played safe. 692 00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:20,840 Speaker 1: Oh no, The answer is psychology major from Oxford in 693 00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:24,560 Speaker 1: his home country. I don't know. I can't. I can't 694 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:28,680 Speaker 1: handle hearing people's problems all that there's nobody listen. Nobody 695 00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,160 Speaker 1: is a better reader of human nature than you. You 696 00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:34,400 Speaker 1: have nailed it every single time we have a conversation 697 00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,719 Speaker 1: on air or off about human nature. You and I 698 00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:39,719 Speaker 1: are gonna go hang out in Philadelphia next week at 699 00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,000 Speaker 1: the Phillies game. It will be three hours of you 700 00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:48,360 Speaker 1: giving me insights on everything that I hadn't even concerned Jane. Wait, Chad, 701 00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,759 Speaker 1: if there was a good old fashioned book burning and 702 00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:54,360 Speaker 1: you could only save a single copy of a single 703 00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,560 Speaker 1: book you've written, which one do you say? It's got 704 00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:00,480 Speaker 1: to be The Detonators? Because The Detonators was the book 705 00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:04,160 Speaker 1: I wrote that was about. It's a true story about 706 00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:08,080 Speaker 1: a terrorist attack on New York Harbor in nineteen in 707 00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:12,160 Speaker 1: which German spies blew up New York Harbor, destroyed the 708 00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:16,960 Speaker 1: Statute of Liberty, decimated Manhattan all the way up to Midtown. Right. 709 00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:21,360 Speaker 1: Incredible story, crazy, fun book to report, one of my 710 00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,440 Speaker 1: favorite books to work on. Nobody bought it, and it 711 00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:27,400 Speaker 1: just crushed me, absolutely crushed me. I was supposed to 712 00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:29,920 Speaker 1: be on the Today Show and then Israel bomb Libya. 713 00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,600 Speaker 1: I got canceled and like all the momentum for the 714 00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,880 Speaker 1: book stopped for like two years. I was depressed. I 715 00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:37,600 Speaker 1: don't even know if I would ever write another book again. 716 00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:39,200 Speaker 1: I was so upset. So it would have to be 717 00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:42,600 Speaker 1: The Detonators because it was my truest labor of love. Yes, 718 00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:49,239 Speaker 1: you guys switched bodies in a freaky Friday situation for 719 00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:52,279 Speaker 1: one year. Who would get the better side of that deal? 720 00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:57,120 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm young, single and have tons of money. 721 00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,200 Speaker 1: I think chat I would have a great time to 722 00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:02,040 Speaker 1: travel in the world spending my money. Yeah, this is 723 00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,640 Speaker 1: a no brainer. I treat my body like a temple. 724 00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,800 Speaker 1: I'm an incredible shape. I have the heartbeat of an athlete. 725 00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:11,200 Speaker 1: And by the way, like my wife is pretty hot, 726 00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:15,680 Speaker 1: and I've got a really comfortable lifestyle, uh, a fair 727 00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:19,200 Speaker 1: amount of money and zero, like not a ton of 728 00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:21,359 Speaker 1: responsibilities because my kids are older. So it's a pretty 729 00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,319 Speaker 1: good gig for Simon too. But dude, if I could 730 00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:26,960 Speaker 1: live like a slaven the NFL better for a year, yeah, 731 00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:29,520 Speaker 1: and just drink and do whatever I mean it's and 732 00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:32,240 Speaker 1: know that I could go back to my life after 733 00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:35,120 Speaker 1: the abating as long as Simon didn't suck it up 734 00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:39,960 Speaker 1: and get me divorced. Is there any behavior from Batters 735 00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:44,200 Speaker 1: that makes you immediately think this person is a total loser? 736 00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:46,719 Speaker 1: Oh my god. I mean there's a million things. If 737 00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,080 Speaker 1: I'm in If I'm in line and there's a guy 738 00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,799 Speaker 1: counting his tickets, all this parlay tickets ahead of me, 739 00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:56,239 Speaker 1: and it's a Sunday morning, I lose my mind, Like 740 00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:57,719 Speaker 1: I just want to make my two bets and get 741 00:40:57,760 --> 00:40:58,759 Speaker 1: out of there, and I have to wait for this 742 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,040 Speaker 1: guy to put all the tickets down on the counter 743 00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:04,000 Speaker 1: as he does his thirty different partlays it's to me, 744 00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:06,200 Speaker 1: that is the worst thing ever. It's like just doing 745 00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,239 Speaker 1: a little chiosk like booth or do it at one 746 00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,560 Speaker 1: of the computer screens. Don't bring them up to the 747 00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,000 Speaker 1: counter with the rest of the other bettors. This is 748 00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:18,799 Speaker 1: so easy. The single easiest thing to identify in an 749 00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,719 Speaker 1: asshole better is someone who says they've got it all 750 00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:25,640 Speaker 1: figured out. Yeah. I've spoken to so many people, and 751 00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:29,759 Speaker 1: believe me, doing this job, most of my time has 752 00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,000 Speaker 1: spent looking for talent. I can't tell you how many 753 00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:34,960 Speaker 1: people I've spoken to have been like they think this 754 00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:38,000 Speaker 1: is a hot ticket to get into because they want 755 00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,160 Speaker 1: to be famous, they want to be on TV, they 756 00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:43,000 Speaker 1: want to be in sports media. Everybody wants betting. I'll 757 00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:44,520 Speaker 1: talk to people who'll be like, yeah, I've been doing 758 00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:46,239 Speaker 1: it for six months. I totally got to figure it 759 00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:51,799 Speaker 1: out and finally, what Action Network personality would make the 760 00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:57,080 Speaker 1: most effective US president. I'd go Leadoff. I mean, I 761 00:41:57,200 --> 00:42:01,319 Speaker 1: like crazy and honest. Honest. He's crazy and he's honest. Like, 762 00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:03,320 Speaker 1: that's to me that that would be the perfect president. 763 00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,400 Speaker 1: Sadly we haven't had in a long time. Wow, you 764 00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,120 Speaker 1: know what, I hadn't thought of Mike Lieboff for that. 765 00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:13,399 Speaker 1: I was thinking Stucky because he never sleeps, He's got 766 00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:17,560 Speaker 1: a good he's got a background in finance. He's risky 767 00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:21,319 Speaker 1: but still thoughtful about his risks. Has great with analytics. 768 00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,320 Speaker 1: But Leeboff did run for mayor in his Long Island 769 00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:28,400 Speaker 1: town and he only didn't win when he was like twenty. 770 00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:29,920 Speaker 1: And I think he didn't win because he went to 771 00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,120 Speaker 1: like some summer concert festival instead of showing up for 772 00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,200 Speaker 1: a debate. He would say he wasn't invited and then 773 00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:37,480 Speaker 1: went to the summer festival. I don't know if that's true. 774 00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:40,240 Speaker 1: But I do think Leeboff has a lot of empathy, 775 00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:45,120 Speaker 1: so maybe a Stucky Leeboff ticket would be the way 776 00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:49,399 Speaker 1: to go Stucky. Yeah, a slip deprived maniac with a 777 00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:56,760 Speaker 1: financial background sounds like exactly the kind of person, very savvy. 778 00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,600 Speaker 1: I feel like I would also put ray Bun in there. 779 00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:05,640 Speaker 1: Raybon is freakishly smart. If we wanted like the freakishly 780 00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:10,600 Speaker 1: smart analytical ticket, we'd have to do Raybon in Kerner, 781 00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:12,680 Speaker 1: which I also think would be a really good ticket. 782 00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:15,960 Speaker 1: I look forward to raybonds four day State of the 783 00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:21,320 Speaker 1: Union address if he shows up because he is because 784 00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:23,960 Speaker 1: because the night before he might have gotten so drunk 785 00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:26,279 Speaker 1: he couldn't even bother to show up in time to 786 00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:28,399 Speaker 1: the State of the Union. That's right, Yeah, he didn't 787 00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,440 Speaker 1: know what times are Listen. These have been amazing questions, 788 00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:34,080 Speaker 1: and there's still more like what is sign that and 789 00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:36,400 Speaker 1: I do during the offseason? What are our thoughts on 790 00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:41,680 Speaker 1: a Sunday ticket moving to sort of a streaming service? Um? 791 00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,040 Speaker 1: What what do we think about different contests to enter? 792 00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:48,960 Speaker 1: So we will do another mail bag before the NFL 793 00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:53,120 Speaker 1: season begins again. If you have mail bad questions, send 794 00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:57,800 Speaker 1: them to podcasts at Action network dot com. Simon, Matt Mitchell, 795 00:43:57,800 --> 00:43:59,640 Speaker 1: and I will also send out a tweet before we 796 00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:02,399 Speaker 1: do our next mailbag episode just so people can weigh 797 00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:06,640 Speaker 1: in with questions directly. Um, but we appreciate listeners. We 798 00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:10,560 Speaker 1: appreciate you sending us questions. We appreciate you giving us feedback. 799 00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:16,320 Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Volume podcast Network 800 00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:19,080 Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell, I am Chad Moman. 801 00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:26,319 Speaker 1: Download rate review, subscribe, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, give us those 802 00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:29,160 Speaker 1: five star reviews. Say whatever you want in the comments. 803 00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:33,160 Speaker 1: We appreciate it. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, 804 00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:34,160 Speaker 1: I Love you,