WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2024 NFL Week 11 Guessing Lines Show 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:02.520 Betting on sports can be hard, but hiring Morgan and 0:00:02.560 --> 0:00:05.880 Morgan is easy. Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury 0:00:05.920 --> 0:00:08.600 law firm. They have over one hundred offices nationwide and 0:00:08.640 --> 0:00:11.960 more than one thousand lawyers. Their fee is free unless 0:00:12.000 --> 0:00:14.600 they win. For more information, go to four the people 0:00:14.640 --> 0:00:17.960 dot com slash Best Bets, or dial pound law pound 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:20.239 five two nine from your cell phone. That's f o 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:23.360 R the People dot com slash best bets. This is 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:30.560 a paid advertisement. Check it down, man, I mean I'm 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:32.680 just told the story now. It's ondos. 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:35.440 Idiots will believe in the analytics. This is a numbers 0:00:35.479 --> 0:00:38.400 game with Gil Alexander Gone Good. 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:40.760 Monday Morning Tune is a numbers game of dcent V 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:46.199 sports betting Networks, dot com games. iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Of 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:48.800 course the VS and app should probably start things with that. 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:51.559 That's right. Watch we're listen live. It's a numbers game 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:54.319 right here, kil Alexander Kelly Bild live from Circa. How 0:00:54.360 --> 0:00:56.440 you doing, man, okay, how are you doing back from 0:00:56.480 --> 0:00:58.440 your your absence on Friday? Yeah? 0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:01.279 Yeah, back back feeling okay? Uh but yeah, we got 0:01:01.280 --> 0:01:02.560 a lot of good NFL to discussion. 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:04.319 That doesn't sound like one hundred percent to me. Not 0:01:05.920 --> 0:01:09.080 plan Hurt's plan hurt. I'll just have to carry it. 0:01:09.319 --> 0:01:11.919 That's right, as always, buddy, No, not as always? 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:14.480 Can we update Circus Survivor though, real quick at the 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:16.640 top before we get into guessing lines for a week 0:01:16.640 --> 0:01:19.000 eleven in the National Football League, where we try to 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:25.240 extract value from the upcoming weeks NFL lines, we have eliminations, uh, 0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:28.600 specifically forty six of them, thirty of which were on 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:31.880 the Giants, fourteen on the Bears, two on the Falcons. 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:34.840 That brings the number of current live entries down to 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:38.920 one oh five one oh five out of the initial 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:44.479 fourteen thousand, two hundred and sixty six. The intrinsic value 0:01:44.640 --> 0:01:47.000 of each of those remaining one hundred five entries, Kelly 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:53.160 isooooooo one hundred and thirty five thousand dollars one hundred 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:56.600 thirty five thousan eight hundred nine dollars and fifty two cents. 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.240 So we have not only past one hundred k, we have. 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:03.040 Uh going by it. We're soared by it. One of 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:05.920 the one oh five is one of the co founders 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:08.680 of profit X Oh really, yeah, he's been on the 0:02:08.680 --> 0:02:11.200 show before, not Dean, but Luke. See if Luke is 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:13.080 wanting to come on the show, and then we're what 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:17.160 we're two Sundays away from the whole Thanksgiving strategicy. That 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:18.200 is going to be awesome. 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:20.240 And what I found out like a whole two weeks 0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:21.240 ago that Mitch Moss was. 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:23.400 Still in it. I was shocked he's still in it. 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.600 He got bounced yesterday. Yeah, I think that's what That's 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:29.120 what Bill had in the news. Who did he have? Giants? 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:30.960 I believe that's tough. 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:33.280 Which also we get to the part of the season 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:35.600 now where we've been elimited it for so long. When 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:37.720 I see these things, I'm like, how are there so 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:39.359 many people on the Giants? 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:41.919 How about that? Were there's so many people? Well? Function 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:43.960 of what you had left right exactly exactly. 0:02:44.040 --> 0:02:46.280 That's where it gets easy to criticize at this point when. 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:48.680 You're at when you've been out of it. Congratulations to whomever. 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:51.120 How many people are responsible for those one hundred and 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:54.040 five entries. So we'll try to keep that going as 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:55.920 well now for those who or at least keep it, 0:02:56.080 --> 0:02:58.440 keep the track of it. Of course. Uh, here's the deal. 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:00.800 If you if you're new to guess lines. What we 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:02.919 do here is I don't know the lines. Kelly will 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:06.400 tell them after we go over yesterday's games, and we 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:08.760 do it through the prism of what next week's matchups are. 0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:11.760 And the point of the whole exercise is to extract value. 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:15.680 Try to have a first reaction that shows value based 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:18.200 on our guesses visa v what the actual lines are. 0:03:18.240 --> 0:03:21.480 Shall we begin, sir, let's do it guessing lines. Fired 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:23.360 up week number eleven and. 0:03:24.200 --> 0:03:31.720 There is Yeah another clight Thursday night down shut down, 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:37.120 just love it, scratching right there, Dan, Yeah, there you go. 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:40.440 Commanders at Eagles this Thursday night. Oh, I never heard 0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:43.880 this lug trail part. I'm sorry. Commanders at Eagles. Yes, 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:47.080 what a Thursday night football game. Commodores lose to the 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:49.760 Steelers in a game I just pounded my fist on 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:51.839 the desk in a game that could have gone either way, 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:55.360 but Mike Tomlin's Magic Beans wins out in the end. 0:03:56.600 --> 0:03:59.880 What a football game. Pittsburgh in a scoreless game. Seventy 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:03.560 seventy yard drive Wilson to Pickens from sixteen out, great 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:05.920 Cats seven and nothing Pittsburgh a little less than halfway 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:08.480 through the first quarter. Later Pittsburgh up seven and nothing. 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:10.760 They kind of let Washington back in this game. It 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:13.240 was a fourth and fifteen at their own sixteen, and 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:15.160 they decided to go with the fake punt. James Pierre 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:17.360 was completely uncovered. Miles Kilbrew gets it to him, but 0:04:17.400 --> 0:04:20.920 it's dropped. Washington set up at Pittsburgh sixteen. Three plays later, 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:23.520 Eckler in from one. We're tied three forty four left 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:27.279 in the first quarter. Later, though, Washington gave it right back. 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:31.919 Corlis Weightman punt muffed by Ola mede Zychaius Ben Scarneck. 0:04:32.240 --> 0:04:34.120 How do you pronounce that again, Scarneck? You that's your guy? 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:38.480 CoronaCheck Scoruncheck recovers Kelly Love pronouncing that guy's name. 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:41.000 Pittsburgh set up in the Washington fourteen. Wilson a Friar 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:43.159 moved from three out of fourteen to seven Pittsburgh early 0:04:43.240 --> 0:04:46.880 second quarter, Then in a fourteen to ten game late second, 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:50.800 late second quarter, Washington ninety four yard drive Jayden Daniels 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:53.280 to Luke McCaffrey for twenty three the big chunk on 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:55.560 third and fourth of Pittsburgh thirty eight. Then Eckler eventually 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:59.320 in from one. Washington leads at the half seventeen o fourteen, 0:04:59.800 --> 0:05:03.400 and and then they perfect the double dip. They come 0:05:03.520 --> 0:05:05.440 right out of the third quarter with a seventy one 0:05:05.520 --> 0:05:08.800 yard drive Daniels to McLaurin, the incomparable Terry McLaurin for 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:11.560 fifty four to open the drive. Three plays later to McLaurin. 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:14.400 Have I mentioned he's incomparable for sixteen on third and 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:16.440 ten to the one McNichols in from there, And the 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:19.440 Skins are up twenty four to fourteen, early third quarter, 0:05:19.440 --> 0:05:22.599 and you're thinking, maybe maybe this is the day. No. 0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:25.480 Pittsburgh comes right back seventy five yard drive Wilson to 0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:27.080 Pickens for thirty four. The big one on second in 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:29.920 twenty from the Washington forty six leads a few plays 0:05:29.960 --> 0:05:31.840 later to a Naji touchdown in from two twenty four 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:34.279 to twenty one. Then later when it's twenty seven to 0:05:34.360 --> 0:05:38.279 twenty one later in the game, now Pittsburgh matriculates the 0:05:38.320 --> 0:05:40.040 second and seven at the Washington eight. We were just 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:43.160 talking about this off air Warren for seven stripped of 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:45.920 the one by Kway Martin recovered by Jeremy Chin, and 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:49.760 you're thinking, oh my goodness, Washington is team Magic not 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:52.960 Mike Tomlin. Yeah, it's sure, Phella. Yeah, that felt huge. 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:55.320 I thought you you and the commanders were going to 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:56.279 be looking good after that. 0:05:56.600 --> 0:05:59.880 Yeah, not so much because then and you just have 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:02.720 to tip your cap here. Sometimes you just kinda tip 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:04.960 your cap. Pittsburgh gets the ball back again, down six. 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:07.000 They're set up at the Washington forty six with five 0:06:07.080 --> 0:06:08.880 forty six to go. They get it to third and 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:11.599 nine at the Washington thirty two. Wilson under pressure, the 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:15.800 perfect Russell Wilson moon ball, the perfect moon ball to 0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:17.960 Mike Williams at the end zone. Touchdown twenty eight, twenty 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:20.840 seven Pittsburgh with two twenty two left, but Washington has 0:06:20.880 --> 0:06:22.960 time take over at their own thirty five with all 0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:25.840 three timeouts and the two minute warning with two sixteen left, 0:06:26.160 --> 0:06:28.560 Fourth and nine in midfield with one twenty eight left, 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:32.559 Daniels to Ertz right at the sticks, rulled just shy 0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:36.440 of the marker, and it survives replay for the Steelers. 0:06:37.000 --> 0:06:40.239 Katie bar the door. That's it. Well. Actually, the Skins 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:42.480 did have another chance because they had all three timeouts left, 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:44.840 but on fourth and one at the Washington forty nine 0:06:44.880 --> 0:06:47.520 with one h two left, Johnny Newton jumps off sides 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:51.880 induced Steelers win at twenty eight twenty seven. Huh. 0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:54.039 I don't even want to complain at the celebration, but 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:55.880 it was a little over the top, like we drew 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:56.719 him off sides. 0:06:57.000 --> 0:06:59.640 We won the Super Bowl. The rookie, the rookie jumps. 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:04.000 Of course he does listen that play at the sticks. 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:07.800 I can't. I can't engender the outrage for it. He 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:11.360 was probably whatever was called on the field was going. 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:14.640 To say, exactly, it's that right, it's it's it's We 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:16.760 might argue about a lot of these rules in. 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:18.400 The NFL, but that's not one of them. Aren't we 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:20.520 used to this one by now? Yeah? And Washington is 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:22.640 exactly what I what I have said in the last 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:24.480 couple of weeks. They're probably like the eighth best team. 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:27.280 They probably can't beat the great teams. This was a 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:29.239 game they could have won very easily, but they didn't. 0:07:29.880 --> 0:07:32.360 Twenty eight twenty seven. Pittsburgh coast to seven and two 0:07:32.840 --> 0:07:36.840 seven and two, seven and two. Oh good. Washington only 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:38.440 in the end ended up with two hundred and forty 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:41.160 two total yards. Jaden was fine as seventeen for thirty 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:43.480 four for two oh two, No touchdowns, don't picks. Who 0:07:43.520 --> 0:07:46.600 was a and they're playing in Philly. Philly beats Dallas. 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:48.880 Not a whole bunch to say about it. Well, actually, 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:50.680 you know the first half of this game is going 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:53.040 to get sort of washed away that it was actually competitive. 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:57.760 Dallas first play, Cooper Rush fumbled. Dallas. First play of 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:01.480 their second drive, Cooper Rush fumbles at their own twenty. 0:08:02.000 --> 0:08:04.360 On the exchange, Milton Williams recovers Philly set up at 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:06.680 the Dallas seventeen. Third and six of the Dallas thirteen 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:09.560 hurts the Saquan who's hemmed in, but somehow manages twelve anyway, 0:08:09.720 --> 0:08:11.320 they get took his push from the one. They're up 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:14.000 seven to nothing midway through the Midway through the first 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:17.960 it was seven to three when Philly matriculated again. First play, 0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:20.720 second quarter, first and ten, the Dallas twelve hurts pick 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:23.800 by Trayvon Diggs in the end zone. Great pick, and 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:26.880 then Dallas down four, goes all the way downfield, first 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:30.920 and goal to six. Zeke hit by Zach Bonn, fumbles 0:08:30.960 --> 0:08:33.160 into the end zone recovered by Cooper de Gen three 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:35.720 to zero, four left in the second quarter. You're like, wow, 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:38.080 Dallas could have taken the lead there. Philly. Second play 0:08:38.120 --> 0:08:39.800 of the ensuing drive, second to nine at their own 0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:42.960 twenty six, Hurts sacked by Micah Parsons. He fumbles. Great 0:08:42.960 --> 0:08:44.840 for Dallas to have Micah back, even though it's not 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:48.959 really mattering. In the end, Maris Leu foul recovers. Dallas 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:52.400 set up the Philly six again, down four, chance to lead. 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:54.360 They can't get in. They settle for an rby twenty 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:56.600 three yard field goal. But remember now, last two minutes 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:58.400 of the second quarter. This is a seven to six 0:08:58.440 --> 0:09:01.520 football game, seven to six game between the Eagles and 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:03.920 the Cowboys, and that Ladies and gentlemen, will be the 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:06.400 peak moment of the Cowboys in this football game, because 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:09.280 right after that, Philly went eighty four yards in eighty 0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:13.000 five seconds, Hurts the goddard from fourteen out fourteen to six, 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:15.080 and the route was on. Here's all you need to 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:16.880 know for Dallas in the second half. You're ready for this. 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:19.440 Dallas three and out. Dallas third and nine at their 0:09:19.440 --> 0:09:24.320 own thirty one. Rush stripsacked Dallas, Ferguson fumble Dallas Trey 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:26.640 Lance now in the game picked by CJ. Gardner Johnson, 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:30.640 Dallas punt that's the Dallas Cowboys second half. They held 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:33.560 Dallas Philly did to one hundred and forty six total yards, 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:37.360 eleven first downs, and they induced five turnovers for a 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:41.839 plus three turnover margin. Washington at Philly Thursday night and 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:45.839 NFC East Showdown between the seven and three Skindies and 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:50.040 the seven and two Eagles Philly minus three. Gotta be right, three, 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:52.880 three and a half, three and a halfs. There are 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:55.560 three and a halves out there as blatantly disrespectful as 0:09:55.559 --> 0:09:56.000 what that is. 0:09:56.280 --> 0:10:00.120 I believe most spots opened this three, but we we 0:10:00.120 --> 0:10:01.320 got a lot of three and a halfs out there. 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:02.920 I think these are two. I think these are two 0:10:02.920 --> 0:10:07.040 playoff teams. And you know, whoever wins their season series, 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:10.079 whych they'll probably split. But if one of these teams wins, 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:12.560 you know, you know, big step on a limb here, 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:16.200 But if you sweep this series, you're probably winning the division. Yes, yeah, 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:20.600 a huge game, awesome game. Can't wait for this one. Eagles. 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:22.520 This is a little bit more of a. 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:24.200 Proven game for the Eagles to be than it is 0:10:24.200 --> 0:10:26.920 for the commander. This is you know me, I'm a 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:29.400 bit higher on the Eagles, I think than most, but Okay, 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:31.320 the past few weeks have looked awesome. Let's go and 0:10:31.320 --> 0:10:33.520 do it against a real opponent now and with the Commanders, 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:34.920 and that's it's a big time game. 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:37.480 Say that again. Say this about the Commanders. They while 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:39.600 they did not beat Baltimore, they lost by seven. While 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:41.520 they did not be Pittsburgh, they lose by a point, 0:10:41.600 --> 0:10:44.400 could have easily won, just as easily. They do not 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:47.680 get blown off a field ever, Like, this is a 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:51.880 really solid football team, and they are what they are 0:10:51.920 --> 0:10:53.959 at this point. They're probably a year or two away. 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:57.560 They're probably the Quinn Essential make the playoffs, maybe win 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:00.840 a game, then get crushed in the set playoff game 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:03.199 or get beaten the first game. But that's that's their 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:06.839 level probably, But also like what a huge advancement from 0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:08.880 a year ago, right, that's the and then you make 0:11:08.920 --> 0:11:11.280 the that's a great point no matter what. If you 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:14.520 told any any Commodore's fan that before the season started, 0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:17.640 you'd be like, really, gimme that. This is kind of 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:19.760 its kind of like where to like just to take 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:20.520 it to another team. 0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:22.640 It's kind of like the Bears conversation of the past week, 0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:24.640 where I'm like, what did we all expect like, I don't. 0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:26.920 It's not like their win total was eleven and a half. Bro, 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:29.679 we'll get to them. I mean it was. It was 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:33.440 even more. Chris Filika Eloso reminded me before the show 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:36.880 Good Good that we got in that Bear's adjusted season 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:42.600 win total under. Yeah, when we did, because that yesterday, 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:44.840 we'll get to them, might have been their last chance 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:47.200 to win a football game. I'm being completely serious. 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:48.920 Well, what was the Remember we were looking at it 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:51.080 last week and it was like under was juiced to 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:53.600 like minus one sixty five or one seventy or something 0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:55.560 like that. Didn't even they didn't want your buddy on 0:11:55.600 --> 0:11:57.800 the unders. Was it even that juice to I think 0:11:57.880 --> 0:12:00.320 it was really Yeah, I think it was. They there 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:03.000 is a scenario where they go from four and two 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:03.800 to four and thirteen. 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:04.280 Yeah. 0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:07.240 Yeah, but that's that's for later. That was about Philly 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:09.720 and Washington. I said, Philly minus three. You said it's 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:11.199 minus three or minus you have three three and a half. 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:12.320 There are three and a halves out there. 0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:15.520 Okay, guessing lines we look for value, maybe we'll find 0:12:15.559 --> 0:12:17.760 some more difference between the guests and the actual the 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:19.280 guests and the actual coming up. 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.559 Numbers. Game on v said the Sports Vetting. 0:12:30.280 --> 0:12:32.360 Network with Somebody, sports and action. There's no better time 0:12:32.360 --> 0:12:34.680 to put the Visa experts to work for you. Become 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:36.840 a visent Pro subscriber today. Get instant access to our 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:39.320 daily best bets with the leaderboard to see which Visa 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:42.080 expert has the hot hand, nineteen hours of live programming, 0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:45.440 power strength and better ratings post are exclusive betting splits Starts. 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:47.319 Visent Pro subscription today were as little as nine to 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:49.679 ninety nine and see everything Visa has to up your 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:53.040 betting game. Sign them today at Visa dot com slash subscribe. 0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:57.720 That's vsi n dot com slash subscribes. Gill Alexander's Kelly 0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:01.079 Bidlin guessing lines for Week eleven in the National Football League. 0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:03.760 What is next? Or what's on Sunday Sunday early Window. 0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:05.920 We were just talking about him Packers at the Bears. 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:09.360 Oh okay, so Packers were idle and the Bears who 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:12.280 we did just begin the conversation about the Bears. The 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:14.920 Bears lose to the Patriots, and just like we did 0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:16.800 with the Cowboys in the second half, let me just 0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:20.000 give you the Bears drives for the entire game. We 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:22.280 don't even have to mention New England, who won this 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:25.320 football game nineteen to three, because this had less to 0:13:25.360 --> 0:13:28.079 do with New England, sorry, Patriots fans and backers, than 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:30.400 it did with the Bears. Bears. You ready for this 0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:33.880 three and out punt set up at own forty eight, 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:37.680 three and out Santo's thirty three yardfield goal. There you go, hey, 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:44.040 that's three punt, second half punt, punt three and out, 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:46.640 three and out, Then fourth and ten at their own 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:49.800 forty six. Turnover on downs Caleb and complete intended for 0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:53.760 Keenan Allen. Then turnover on downs again. There is your ballgame. 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:58.560 There are your Chicago Bears, everybody. Caleb Williams the number 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:02.319 one pick in the draft of thirty for one twenty 0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:08.880 no touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked nine times nine nights. 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:14.400 By point of comparison, Now with those nine sacks, Caleb 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:17.760 Williams has now been sacked thirty eight times this year 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:20.520 in nine games, or, as we like to say in 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:24.520 the business, halfway to Derek to David Carr in two 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:27.280 thousand and two. Wow, he's halfway to David Gard. Now, 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:30.000 I remember David Carr was sixteen games. Caleb has played nine, 0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:33.080 so He's not exactly on pace, but he is on 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:36.080 pace for seventy two sacks, which would be tied for 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:38.760 a second with a Randall Cunningham season seventy. 0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:41.520 Four more than c J. Stroud, five more than Deshaun Watson. 0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:42.960 Deshaun Watson's still third. O. 0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:44.720 There By the way, I went to a deep dived, 0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:48.280 a deep David car dive thing on this his first 0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:51.600 five seasons. Here are four of his seasons, the four 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:54.760 seasons where he played all sixteen games, seventy six his 0:14:54.840 --> 0:14:57.760 rookie year, which is still the record sacks, then two 0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:00.680 years later and three and four years later forty nine, 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:07.200 sixty eight and forty one. Oh my god, anyway, Caleb's 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:10.080 got thirty eight. The Bears managed one hundred and forty 0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:13.600 two total yards in this game, out gained three twenty 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:16.960 eight to one forty two. They had eleven first downs, 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:22.280 and they were one of fourteen on third. Chicago has 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:24.840 not reached the end zone in back to back games. 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:28.960 That has gone twenty three straight offensive drives without a touchdown, 0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:32.360 which marks the longest active streak in the NFL. Or 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:37.680 As Merril Hodge said about Caleb Williams, Startell has that ready, 0:15:38.000 --> 0:15:43.680 or we'll get that later. Here's the thing. Yeah, it's 0:15:43.720 --> 0:15:46.600 not all Caleb's fault, because obviously there's an offensive line 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:49.320 that should be considered in all this. They have no 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:52.120 running game as a result of that offensive line. But yeah, 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:55.680 it's not working out. I'll say, Packers minus five and 0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:57.560 a half on the road. Put it in no man's like. 0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:00.560 You are light, I believe. Come on, really, six and 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:01.440 a half is where? 0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:05.000 Wow? Yes, I thought I was. I thought I was 0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:07.920 doing it on the high end. Yeah. 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:11.080 No, okay, Packers six and a half. 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:13.480 So you're telling me if the Packers were at home, 0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:16.760 they would be damn near a ten, like a nine 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:20.200 point ten point favorite. Yeah wow, okay, cool? 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:23.960 Next Yeah, yeah, they'd be ten at least ten. 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:27.520 I want to hear that Merril Hodge thing. What's the next? Next? 0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:31.520 Don't let me know what it's ready? Okay, Jackson Lions, Oh, 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:36.480 Jagson Lions. Oh the Lions. Okay, Jags. Yesterday lose to 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:40.760 the Vikings, but somehow cover the number three to nothing 0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:44.000 game Minnesota Jacksonville seventy yard drive behind Mac Jones back 0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:46.400 in from one, seven to three Jacksonville. That would be 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:48.800 sort of the high water mark for the jag Wires 0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:52.360 yesterday Minnesota, then this is this was the story of 0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:54.880 the game, and Minnesota overcame all of this. These are 0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:58.600 the next four drives for Minnesota. Minnesota from their own sixteen, 0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:01.040 they get it to second goal, the Jacksonville seven. Darnald 0:17:01.160 --> 0:17:03.080 much time picked in the end zone. Oh no, I 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:05.439 skipped one first and tenth of the Jacksonville thirty one 0:17:05.520 --> 0:17:07.520 twenty seven left in the first quarter, Darnald picked by 0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:11.200 Foye sad olaquan. Next Minnesota drive from their own sixteen, 0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:13.320 they get it to second goal, the Jacksonville seven. Darnald 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:15.919 much time picked in the end zone by Monteric Brown. 0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:19.399 Next time Minnesota got the ball, Andre Cisco misses a 0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:23.600 sure fire pick on first down three and out. Anyway 0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:26.240 that'll get washed away in history. Then on the fourth 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:29.440 drive in this sequence, Minnesota matriculates third and fourth of 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:32.720 Jacksonville eighteen. Darnald picked at the goal line by Darnell Savage. 0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:35.480 So literally it should have been four straight drives where 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:37.359 Darnald got picked and said it was three of four. 0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:43.400 No matter because they're playing the Jacksonville Jaguars. John Parker 0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:45.800 Romo added a field goal to make it seven to 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:50.800 six Jacksonville, and then in the fourth quarter, Romo squeaks 0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:52.679 in a thirty four yarder to make it nine to 0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:55.199 seven Minnesota. Jacksonville second play, second and thirteen of their 0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:58.080 own twenty seven football on exchange, Harrison Smith recovers that 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:01.520 led to another JP Romo twenty nine yardfield will make 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:04.120 it twelve to seven. Jacksonville still had two chances down 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:07.439 five to win this game. The first try, second and 0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:09.159 eight at their own thirty two. Jones was picked by 0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:11.680 Byron Murphy Junior, and then the next time they took 0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:14.120 over their own seventeen with two forty two left first 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:16.320 and ten at the Minnesota forty three, they were forty 0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:19.000 three yards away from winning this Jones picked by Cameron 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:22.000 Binam And by the way the game ended, you thought 0:18:22.000 --> 0:18:25.080 the Washington jumping off sides was bad. Minnesota at their 0:18:25.119 --> 0:18:27.920 own one, they're set to punt, but on third down 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:30.000 of the sequence they get it just you know, they 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:31.840 get some room pass the goal line, but it's still 0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:36.040 third down. Unnecessary roughness penalty on Jacksonville in getting the 0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:39.919 ball back. Oh yeah, ball game brutal. And then the 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:41.960 Detroit Lions for those of you who missed this ball 0:18:42.000 --> 0:18:44.119 game last night. This was the to me, this was 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:46.920 the headline of the of the NFL weekend, even more 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:49.760 so than that Bengals Ravens game on Thursday. Really, oh, 0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:52.960 this game last night? Are you kidding me? The Detroit 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:58.320 Lions overcome five count the five picks from Jared Goff 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:00.280 to come from behind to beat the Houston tech Since 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:03.840 twenty six to twenty three, second and eleven at their 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:06.520 own forty one less than two minutes into the game. 0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:09.000 Golf deflected in the air picked by Jimmy Ward, sets 0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:11.199 up Houston at the Detroit thirty three. They convert a 0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:13.520 third and ten. They convert a third and sixteen. Mikes 0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:16.640 it in form eight, seven to nothing. Houston later it's 0:19:16.680 --> 0:19:19.120 ten to nothing. Might have been the three and out. 0:19:19.119 --> 0:19:22.080 Golf then hit Jamison Williams instead for twenty three on 0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:25.200 third and sixteen that matriculated the ball down the field 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:27.280 for them. Eleven plays, seventy yards golf to Laporter for 0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:30.399 twenty touchdown, ten to seven Houston, and you're figuring, Okay, 0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:33.720 Detroit's gonna come back real quick. Nope, not the case. 0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.280