1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's check in with 7 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 1: Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist and head of client 8 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 1: portfolio Management at Federated Hermes. Uh. They are big folks, 9 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: over six hundred billion dollars in assets under management. Phil. 10 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: I'm an equity investor. I'm looking at two I see 11 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: rates are gonna be rising. I see the economy is 12 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: going to be slowing. Is there any place for me 13 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:48,519 Speaker 1: to be in the equity markets? Uh? Yeah, It's certainly 14 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 1: going to be a more volatile year, certainly going to 15 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: be a choppier year. But we think when the dust 16 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: settles at the end of the year, stock market will 17 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: be maybe ten percent or so higher than forty hundred 18 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 1: where we started the year. We think will end the 19 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 1: year at about fifty three hundred. But that's going to 20 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 1: be a very back end loaded kind of performance. The 21 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: first nine months of the year. In our mind, UH 22 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 1: is going to be very choppy, very volatile, with the 23 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 1: focus on this soaring inflation, what's the federal Reserve doing 24 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 1: in terms of changing policy, and so you know, we 25 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 1: thought there would be an eight to twelve percent correction 26 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: or so over the first couple of quarters of the year. UM. 27 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 1: The emphasis here is going to be preserving capital, and 28 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: and that suggests owning the stocks that are cheaper, that 29 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,759 Speaker 1: have lower datas, that have higher dividend yield support. UM. 30 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: So we like domestic large cap and small cap value. 31 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 1: We like small cap stocks, we like international stocks, and 32 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 1: and those stocks have been performing a lot better than 33 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: the growthier technology stocks, which which have been trading at 34 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 1: at you know, sort of nosebleed valuation levels. So hang on, 35 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 1: you want to in preserving capital, you want to buy 36 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: a small cap stocks? How's that defensive? The small cap 37 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 1: stocks have gotten taken out behind the wood shed, So 38 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: the valuation is significantly more attractive than the large cap 39 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 1: growth names. The small cap stocks quite literally a cheaper 40 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: than the large cap stocks, and they've got better growth. Um. 41 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 1: Most people think that it's the small cap stocks that 42 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 1: are trading at you know, fifty or a hundred times 43 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 1: forward earnings. That's not the case. So the value stocks, 44 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: the small cap stocks, the international stocks are the places 45 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 1: you're gonna find better value. And then what do you 46 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,959 Speaker 1: look for a specific sign to get back into the 47 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: broader market If we're gonna ra at the end of 48 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 1: the year, or is there a certain time that you 49 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: want to do that, Well, certainly I think there's gonna 50 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: be chopped into the late summer early fall period. We 51 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 1: want to see how this inflation plays out. We want 52 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 1: to see what the FEDS change in policy is going 53 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: to be. We know the tapering is going to end 54 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:07,920 Speaker 1: in March. They told us that. We know they're going 55 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 1: to start to raise interest rates in March. They told 56 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 1: us that what we don't know is are they gonna 57 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 1: tighten policy, raise interest rates every meeting every other meeting. 58 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,839 Speaker 1: Are they gonna give us a bunch of twenty five 59 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 1: basis point heights? Are they going to front load with 60 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 1: a couple of fifties? Are they going to start to 61 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 1: aggressively shrink the balance sheet either passively or uh actively 62 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 1: in the middle of the year. There's a lot of 63 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 1: open questions, and importantly, We don't know who five of 64 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: the seven members of the Board of Governors UH is 65 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 1: going to be until the Senate confirms them or not 66 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 1: later this month. So there's a lot of open questions 67 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 1: surrounding inflation and federal reserve makeup and policy. Phil It's 68 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: it's interesting here. We we've had, you know, this pullback 69 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 1: in the marketplace. We've had a little bit of a 70 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: bounce back here over the past week here. Um one 71 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 1: of the sectors that has been really interesting. I look 72 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:10,119 Speaker 1: at w t I crude oil at a barrel. Yes, 73 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 1: it's had such a move. Have the stocks had their 74 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: day or is there still room to grow? I know 75 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 1: a lot of folks thinking about that. Well, there's no 76 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: question that energy has been the best performer to date, 77 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: and and deservedly so. Crude oil has gone from thirty 78 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 1: or thirty five dollars a barrel back in November of 79 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 1: as you said, we're now at ninety dollars a barrel 80 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: going higher. We're probably going to be a hundred hundred 81 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: twenty by the end of the year. Why is that 82 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 1: You've got this global reopening trade UH in which there 83 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:46,480 Speaker 1: is a significant demand for energy, Yet the largest energy 84 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: producer in the world. The United States, we voluntarily reduced 85 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: our production by over the course of the last year 86 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: because of fiscal policy. So as a result, what's the 87 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 1: clearing mechanism, price price has gone higher. Less less supply, 88 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: more demand, and and that trend is going to continue 89 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:10,279 Speaker 1: until either the demand slows or we're able to put 90 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 1: more more product onto the market. And the latter's looks 91 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 1: seemingly difficult, right, I mean, opec Um doesn't have that 92 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 1: much spare capacity. Well two issues. Number one, they're saying, well, 93 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: we're just going to slowly add four dred thousand barrels, 94 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: you know, a day over the next month to increase 95 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 1: that but there are legitimate questions as to whether or 96 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 1: not they've got any oil that they can put onto 97 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:38,720 Speaker 1: the market. They have they they may be uh, they 98 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,119 Speaker 1: may be running on empty right now. So the swing 99 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: producer is going to be the United States. And and 100 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,679 Speaker 1: you know, over the course of the last year, we've 101 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: taken our production down from thirteen million barrels a day 102 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 1: to eleven million barrels a day. So in order to 103 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: get the price lower, US producers need to be encouraged 104 00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: by the federal government to to start exploring and produce 105 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 1: you more. By the way, Philip, we're at the SMP 106 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 1: and crew is trading for hundred ten, hundred twenty. Where 107 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 1: do you see the tenure at the end of the year. 108 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: We think benchmark tens which are about one ninety now, 109 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 1: we think they'll be closer to two and a half 110 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: percent by the end of the calendar year. Interesting. See. 111 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 1: Phil always brings the goods, you know, always got some 112 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 1: headlines coming out of Philip Orlando. Phil, thanks so much 113 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:26,279 Speaker 1: for joining us. As always, we appreciate your clear calls 114 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 1: on these markets. Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist and 115 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: head of Client Portfolio Management. He's a federated at HERMIS. 116 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 1: Those federated folks are based in Pittsburgh, but uh fills 117 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: in New York City. All right, let's talk interest rates. 118 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 1: They're going higher. A lot of folks want to say 119 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 1: where we want to get an understanding of, you know, 120 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,479 Speaker 1: how quickly and how much preamra she does this for 121 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:54,719 Speaker 1: a living Managing director in Global head of rate Strategy 122 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 1: at TV Securities. Is my federal reserve gonna lift interest 123 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:02,599 Speaker 1: rates fifty basis points in mark? Thy thanks for having 124 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: me on. We don't think not in March. I mean, 125 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: it's not obvious to us that the benefits of going fifty, 126 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 1: which is not priced in, it would be a huge 127 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: shock to the market. It would tighten financial conditions that 128 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 1: it's worth it. From the Fed standpoint, I mean, I 129 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 1: think they're signaling that they're about to start hiking. We 130 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: think largely consecutive meetings of hikes until as well as 131 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: quantitative tightening until we figure out whether inflation is decelerating 132 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: in the second half of the year, which we do expect. 133 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: So we're looking for them to start in March, continue 134 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: to hike it connegative meetings, and then slow down into 135 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: your end because we see inflation declining. But I would 136 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: stress that quantitative tightening is likely to move into strates higher. 137 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: I mean, we don't think they go fifty, but if 138 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 1: they start letting the balance sheet run off. The balance 139 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: sheet is much larger than it was in seventeen, it 140 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 1: has a shorter week to average maturity, and that's going 141 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: to put a lot of treasury supply in the market, 142 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 1: which we think will take that tenure higher. So we're 143 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 1: looking forward to in a quarter on the tenure, the 144 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: pace is tricky. When does the market start to price it, 145 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: and you could get a faster move to that to 146 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 1: in a quarter. But I do think the long end 147 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 1: the front ense price for hikes. I think the long 148 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 1: end still has some some work to do in terms 149 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: of moving higher in rates to price. In this exit 150 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: from off the Fit, It's been twenty five years since 151 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: I took statistics from Hassan Rockmanny and at Antioch College. 152 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 1: And to be honest, I was in a college in 153 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 1: Yellow Springs, Ohio, really great, great place, and it was 154 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: super fun, which is why I didn't pay much attention 155 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 1: in statistics. But um, so the language I don't I 156 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: don't have downpad. But you know, there can be a 157 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 1: couple of different scenarios when you're making forecasts. Right, On 158 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: the one hand, you can have a high degree of 159 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,080 Speaker 1: probability your base case is very likely to happen when 160 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 1: you're looking at say um you know, year end fed 161 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: UM policy and inflation. On the other hand, you can 162 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 1: have a really broad distribution of probability these right. I mean, 163 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: as you said, we don't know what's going to happen 164 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:05,559 Speaker 1: with inflation. Maybe it turns around in the middle of 165 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 1: the year and then the fat doesn't have to hike five, six, 166 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 1: seven times, or maybe inflation keeps coming on strong and 167 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: they have to do not just one, but multiple fifty 168 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 1: basis point rate hikes. Is this a situation where the 169 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: likelihood we're forecasting the end game is much more difficult? Yes, 170 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: it is, And I would say for a couple of reasons, 171 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: we're still in the midst of a pandemic. Um. I mean, 172 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: as much as we'd like to think that it's behind us, 173 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 1: the impact of it on supply chains, on the goods 174 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 1: to services, that that demand transition that we've been reading 175 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 1: now for a year, I mean there's some aspect of 176 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 1: that that flows into not just the labor market, but 177 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: also inflation, because as much as inflation was a supply 178 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,239 Speaker 1: chain issue, was also a demand issue. There was significant 179 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: demand for goods. So we're still trying to figure out 180 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 1: the impact over the how COVID itself, um, you know, 181 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: how how the pandemic progresses, How is the impact of 182 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: that flow through. So there's that macro risk. And then 183 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 1: to your point, I mean trying to figure out the 184 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 1: timing of when inflation will decline. And at the same 185 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 1: time you have a FED that I think has stepped 186 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 1: back from forward guidance. They're telling us they're likely to 187 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,959 Speaker 1: start the exit soon, but after that, all options around 188 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 1: the table because of being I think inherent uncertainty around 189 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 1: the data and I think concerns that they might be 190 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:27,559 Speaker 1: behind the curve, which is why I think that fifty 191 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: basis point will give a very strong signal that the 192 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 1: FED things there behind the curve. But I think they 193 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 1: want to keep all options on the table because they 194 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 1: may have to go faster. And that's the case. Where 195 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 1: can they go faster on QT or can they go 196 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,280 Speaker 1: more hikes market pricing? In about five and a half 197 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: hikes this year there are seven meetings, they could technically 198 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 1: go seven times, just twenty five, and it's much more 199 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 1: than Well, Also, the hikes probably aren't going to have 200 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:55,959 Speaker 1: and as much of an effect on markets as QT 201 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 1: are they. I mean, if they if they unwind two 202 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 1: or three trillion dollars from their balance sheet, they still 203 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:04,559 Speaker 1: haven't gone through everything they build up since the beginning 204 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: of the pandemic, and that would hit markets. I think, 205 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,719 Speaker 1: you know, that's way more than anyone expects. Exactly, and well, 206 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: we've noticed real rates as well as the equity market 207 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 1: or financial conditions in general seem to react much more 208 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: to QT because there's a permanence to it. While on hike, 209 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 1: if all we're doing is moving a hike from two thousand, 210 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: twenty three to twenty two, you know it's a big 211 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: deal if you're trading fret front futures, But it doesn't 212 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: matter as much in terms of interest rates because you've 213 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 1: just taken front loaded the hikes as opposed to increase 214 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: the number of hikes. And notice the endpoint of the 215 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: hiking cycle, the market pricing of that hasn't changed. It's 216 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 1: been between one seventy five and one nine, so it's 217 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 1: not like the markets adding more hikes. We're just moving 218 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:48,680 Speaker 1: hikes from one year to another. But QUT is a 219 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 1: different story. At that point, there's a lot more treasuries 220 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 1: and we need to find that marginal buyer for treasuries 221 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 1: in auctions that every other week the Treasury has auctions. 222 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: So yes, I think QUT is a bigger One of 223 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: the reasons why we think the FIT would not have 224 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 1: to hike as much is because of all right, prea 225 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Always appreciate a 226 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:09,199 Speaker 1: pre MISERM Managing director and global head of Rate strategy 227 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: at TV Securities. Let's continue our discussion of the US 228 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 1: labor market. We can do that now with Nolan Church, 229 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 1: CEO and co founder of Continuum. Nolan former chief people 230 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:26,680 Speaker 1: Officer Carter, former head of Talented door Dash, former recruiter Google, 231 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: so he knows all about this hiring and retaining talent 232 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 1: stuff and captain of in Captain baseball team, the baseball 233 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 1: team at the Universe with the name like Nolan, do 234 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 1: you have to I think you have to be a 235 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: baseball player. You can't go out there and you know, 236 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:43,199 Speaker 1: be a frisbee ultimate frisbe play. You're gonna be a 237 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:46,080 Speaker 1: bas frisbee golf exactly. Nolan, thanks so much for joining 238 00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 1: us here. One of the many questions I have about 239 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:51,439 Speaker 1: this unique place in time in our in our labor market, 240 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:54,200 Speaker 1: is you know, the four to five million people that 241 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 1: aren't in the labor market today that we're there pre pandemic, 242 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 1: Who are they? Where did they go? And are they 243 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 1: ever coming back? Yeah, it's a great question. First of all, 244 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: it's great to be here. Thanks for having me on. Guys. 245 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 1: I think that's the big mystery we're all trying to solve. Now. 246 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:11,560 Speaker 1: What I would tell you is is that I can't 247 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 1: tell you for certain for all four to five million, 248 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: you know where they are ended up right now, But 249 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:18,599 Speaker 1: I will tell you that I think a large majority 250 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 1: of those people have actually become solo preneurs. I think 251 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 1: that they've started to work for themselves. I think that 252 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:28,959 Speaker 1: they're starting to consult, advise, become angel investors. And I'm 253 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: seeing that especially being the case with executives that have 254 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 1: deep expertise in a functional area. So how do we 255 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 1: do that? Well, you gotta work in radio a little longer. 256 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: Uh No, I honestly believe what it comes down to 257 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 1: is is that if you look at the labor market 258 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 1: right now, and specifically the case with the executives, which 259 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: is where I've spent a bunch of my time, these 260 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 1: people are the most in demand. So if you think 261 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 1: about executive recruiting, which is the function in which we 262 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:01,959 Speaker 1: connect executives to companies today, these searches usually cost a 263 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 1: hundred k or more, they usually take six to nine months. 264 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,320 Speaker 1: And right now there's a phenomenon I've never seen before, 265 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: which is these executive recruiters are so busy they are 266 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:14,439 Speaker 1: turning away business. And so if you think about that 267 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:16,079 Speaker 1: on one side, and you think about the other side 268 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 1: is these people have been in their careers for ten, fifteen, 269 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: twenty plus years and they're tired. They've been working their 270 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 1: tails off for typically one company at a time, and 271 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 1: you know they look in tech Crunch every morning and 272 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 1: they're starting to see all their CEOs become angel investors 273 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: to do other things outside of just the CEO job, 274 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 1: and they're wondering, Hey, I've had my head down this 275 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: entire time. Is there something else that I can do 276 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 1: that's interesting for me, that gives me more time back 277 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 1: in my life, but still allows me to make an 278 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 1: income and to challenge myself intellectually. So, Nolan, as you 279 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 1: talk to your clients as they think about trying to hire, 280 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 1: and we know it's such a difficult hiring environment right now. 281 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 1: We see for you know, help one as signs every 282 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: ay where and it's not just at the local bakery 283 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 1: and local store, it's corporate America as well. Is hybrid workforce? 284 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 1: Is that just table stakes? Do I just have to 285 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 1: offer that as an employer? I actually don't think so. Now. 286 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 1: What I will say is everything is a trade off 287 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: right now, and so if you don't want to be 288 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: remote first or hybrid, then you will take longer to 289 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: hire somebody period, full stop, especially people that have experienced Yeah, 290 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 1: that makes sense, right, especially depending on where you are 291 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 1: what kind of I mean, your clients are higher end 292 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 1: uh looking to fill higher end jobs, right, So I mean, 293 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 1: if you're an executive and you're doing well, I don't 294 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 1: think your boss probably cares most of the time what 295 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 1: office you're in. That's that's what we're seeing now. And 296 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: the COVID forced us all to become zoom native, uh 297 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 1: to to just like everyone's got a webcam severn set 298 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: up now, and so I think all of us are 299 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 1: now used to this. What's happening though, is that just 300 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 1: because these searches take so long, And it's the case 301 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 1: for executives certainly, but frankly, all the way through the 302 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 1: stack and the company, I think companies are are saying, actually, 303 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 1: this trade off that we wanted to have everybody in 304 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 1: the office just isn't worth it anymore, and now we 305 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: need to optimize for speed. And if you're optimizing for speed, 306 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 1: what we're seeing companies do is obviously they're going to 307 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 1: remote first. Number one, we're seeing them pay more. Um 308 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: So increasing compensation as number two, and then number three 309 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 1: is that they're they're starting to explore these new options. 310 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 1: So instead of hey, I thought I needed somebody for 311 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: you know, I wanted somebody for a full time role 312 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 1: working forty plus hours a week, I will now take 313 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 1: somebody that's working twenty to thirty hours a week because 314 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 1: I can get them in the building faster. By the way, 315 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 1: how many people are you putting into you know, um, 316 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 1: highly skilled, high level jobs normally where they need to 317 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 1: be in New York City or in Chicago or in 318 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: l A And they say, no, I'm gonna do with 319 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: the job from like the mountains in Montana. That is, 320 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 1: I would say of the executives in our market place 321 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:17,920 Speaker 1: are now like that. It is unbelievable. And and what's 322 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 1: fascinating is is that you know, companies, they're they're starting 323 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 1: to catch up, but still many of them are quite 324 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,639 Speaker 1: slow for this. And so we primarily work with with 325 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 1: pre I p O startups in the technology sector, and 326 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:33,400 Speaker 1: I would say the large majority of those companies are 327 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 1: now being founded as remote first companies. Those that aren't 328 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,640 Speaker 1: are living on this line between man, I really want 329 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 1: to be intentional about my culture I want people in 330 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:46,399 Speaker 1: the office. We have this office, I want people to 331 00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:52,360 Speaker 1: use it, but it's taking forever to hire. And so okay, 332 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:56,199 Speaker 1: maybe I'll now explore somebody fractionally that doesn't work in 333 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 1: the office because they can come solve my problems today. 334 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 1: Look at this is where the the world is moving 335 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:03,639 Speaker 1: in this direction, and I think the people that jump 336 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: on this train now will deal with a lot less 337 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 1: pain than those that continue to be headstrong about getting 338 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:11,239 Speaker 1: people in the I'll get on the train. I need 339 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 1: to get on the you're gonna miss the train. We 340 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 1: need to get Alan Anthony from Jersey on the train. 341 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 1: That's what we need, all right. Nolan Church, thanks so 342 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,400 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Fascinating discussion here this half hour 343 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,920 Speaker 1: about the changing labor environment. Boy, you gotta get people 344 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 1: back in the office, or do you? All right? Nolan Church, 345 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: CEO and co founder of Continuum, fascinating discussion. All right, 346 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 1: let's talk manufacturing here and Fan Dazzi, Chief executive Officer. 347 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 1: Richie Brothers. Richie Brothers is a publicly traded company that's 348 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 1: six and a half billion market cap. Stocks been kind 349 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:48,119 Speaker 1: of flat over last year. The company sells used and 350 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: unused industrial equipment, including equipment using the construction, transportation, mining, forestry, petroleum, 351 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 1: and agricultural industries. I didn't even know there was such 352 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 1: a thing, but it makes perfect sense. And we love 353 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:02,680 Speaker 1: chatting with the ancause it's a good sense of what's 354 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:06,159 Speaker 1: going on in industrial America, supply chain, all that stuff. So, 355 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,640 Speaker 1: and thanks so much for joining us. How about let's 356 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 1: just talk about how's your market is. How's the market 357 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:16,640 Speaker 1: for using and I guess new industrial equipment? Yeah, so 358 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 1: thanks for having me on the show. The market is 359 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:23,679 Speaker 1: white hot because the demand is so high. The issue 360 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 1: is the supply chain and that we're a global company, uh, 361 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 1: and we're feeling it all over the globe. So Richie 362 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 1: Brothers Transact primarily used equipment, and as you said, in 363 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: the industrial transportation space. Unfortunately, Uh, if you don't have 364 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,640 Speaker 1: a new piece of equipment to replace your use piece 365 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,400 Speaker 1: of equipment, you cannot give up the uth piece of equipment. 366 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 1: So we see the demand the sky high, resulting in 367 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:54,640 Speaker 1: just incredible prices for youth equipment in the marketplace because 368 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,119 Speaker 1: they cannot get you to replace at the same clip 369 00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 1: they will so I want to So I'm guessing is 370 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:05,160 Speaker 1: an auction platform that you have it. Yeah, so we uh. 371 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 1: We primarily go to market through an auction platform. We 372 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,920 Speaker 1: also have a listing service that we've had in Europe 373 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 1: for some time and just launched Ritchie List a couple 374 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,679 Speaker 1: of months ago in North America. So we allow people 375 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 1: to list their own equipment, sell it themselves, we can 376 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 1: finance that, we can inspect it for them, we can 377 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:27,240 Speaker 1: help close the transaction, or if you just need liquidity, 378 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 1: we are happy to sell it on your behalf. So um, 379 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,879 Speaker 1: I mean it sounds awesome business like I want to 380 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 1: go on the website and check it out. But I 381 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: imagine that your turnover hasn't been so much higher over 382 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 1: the past couple of years, but the prices have just soored. 383 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 1: Is that the case, or do you even have more turnover? Yeah, no, 384 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 1: that's exactly right. Our units are down. So two things 385 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 1: are happening in our marketplace. The prices are sky high 386 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 1: because the man the sky high. The units are down because, 387 00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:59,919 Speaker 1: as you say, we you know, low turnover, we ken 388 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,680 Speaker 1: we can't get the new equipment. And also the mix 389 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 1: of the equipment, so the things that are coming are 390 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:09,919 Speaker 1: older smaller. Again, you know, when people really have to 391 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 1: turn the equipment they do. Otherwise they just hold onto 392 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 1: it much longer. Now, the beauty of our businesses as 393 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 1: that equipment continues to sit there, it continues to age. 394 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 1: So sooner or later, when the supply chain catches up, uh, 395 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,680 Speaker 1: that equipment will need to be turned Uh. And that's 396 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 1: where we come in. So we're we're but the but 397 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: the but the opportunity for you here, I mean, I'm 398 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 1: looking at your stock here going from basically forty to 399 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 1: sixty pre pandemic to now, which is you know, gain 400 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 1: is better than a stick in the eye. But your opportunity, 401 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 1: I guess is to um really boost your brand awareness here. 402 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:50,439 Speaker 1: You know, I think of the car space and pre pandemic, 403 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,680 Speaker 1: most people wanting a new car would just go down 404 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: the dealership lot and pick one out. But there aren't 405 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 1: any on the dealership lots, so they've had to familiarize 406 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:02,879 Speaker 1: themselves with Auto Trader, car Max, car Gurus, etcetera. And 407 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,439 Speaker 1: so fourth, I guess what you want to do is 408 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 1: make everybody aware that Richie Brothers Auctions is the place 409 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: to go for this kind of equipment. Yeah, that's beautifully said. 410 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 1: We actually take a lot of cues from the car industry. 411 00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 1: I personally spent almost over a decade in big Auto 412 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 1: prior to a couple of uh CEO gigs outside of 413 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,120 Speaker 1: auto and now Richie Brothers. It's a perfect analogy. So 414 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 1: we are very fortunate because the space of used equipment 415 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 1: ready for this, three hundred billion dollars of used equipment 416 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,359 Speaker 1: in a normal year change his hands every year. Three 417 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:42,439 Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars. We transact roughly six billion of that 418 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:46,080 Speaker 1: every year. So the opportunity space is huge. Uh, and 419 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:49,399 Speaker 1: our transition is just beginning from kind of a pure 420 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 1: play auctioneer to really a marketplace. Think about all the 421 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:57,679 Speaker 1: things that exists in cars, Kelly blue Book, car facts, 422 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 1: as you set all of different formats to trend that 423 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 1: we're actually putting those in place. We acquired Rouse to 424 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 1: help us build the Kelly Bluebook of our industry. We 425 00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 1: launched the listing service that facilitate transactions outside of the 426 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 1: auction channel, and then obviously kind of the pre eminent 427 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 1: auction player all over the globe. All right, fascinating stuff. 428 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: We're gonna have to get you back on and I 429 00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 1: got a million in one questions, like me too, When 430 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,200 Speaker 1: is the supply chain? Thinking would be over. I want 431 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 1: to and you get over this whole market, right. You 432 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,120 Speaker 1: want to become like the Mannheim of equipment. I want 433 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 1: to get a big like earth Mover or something like that. 434 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 1: And Fandazi, chief executive officer for Richie Brothers. Thanks for 435 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:40,359 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and 436 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 1: listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform 437 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt 438 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,400 Speaker 1: Miller three. Pet On bal Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at 439 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us 440 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:55,920 Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio