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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up,

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Speaker 1: Straight Fire fan? It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Friday, October.

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Speaker 1: It's Halloween weekend. I know everybody's fired up for some

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Speaker 1: really good NFL content On this podcast. We have a

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Speaker 1: great guest. He's new to the gambling scene. He has

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Speaker 1: joined the New York Post a little while back and

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Speaker 1: is doing a bunch of gambling for them. Eric Richter,

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Speaker 1: I think you guys will enjoy it. Um, lengthy uh

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Speaker 1: talk about NFL M m A. It's good. And after

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Speaker 1: that I will break down all my bets that are

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Speaker 1: in and the potential for the contest this week. It's weird.

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Speaker 1: I kind of like a lot of games. Um. But

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Speaker 1: first we've got to address the fading Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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Speaker 1: Holy cow, folks, this is stunning. Not only did Tampa

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Speaker 1: waste a ten three halftime lead and get their doors

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Speaker 1: blown off in the second half by the Baltimore to

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Speaker 1: fall to three and five. Blah blah blah blah. Wait

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Speaker 1: it gets worse. Afterward, Todd Bowles announced that the best

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Speaker 1: defensive lineman for the Bucks Shack Barrett Achilles injury. It

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Speaker 1: doesn't look good. He's going to have an m R.

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Speaker 1: I folks, listen, I know it feels like the season

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Speaker 1: is over for Tampa. And I'm the nerd who went

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Speaker 1: through their UM schedule and I looked at the games

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Speaker 1: and and I don't care what you say that, oh, well,

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Speaker 1: that that's not a loss. They lost to Pittsburgh, they

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Speaker 1: lost to Carolina. This team is not good. They're just

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Speaker 1: not good. Right now. They have the Rams next week. Now,

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Speaker 1: the Rams are coming off the Niners game, which is

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Speaker 1: gonna be a huge rivalry game. Rams are gonna put

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Speaker 1: everything into that game. They cannot lose with the Niners

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Speaker 1: in Then they got a game against Seattle. I think

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Speaker 1: that is that the game in Germany. Rob That is correct, Okay,

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Speaker 1: So then they got to fly to Germany against Seattle.

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Speaker 1: And listen, Seattle before the season. That's a win right now.

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Speaker 1: I don't Seattle better than Tampa. Seattle might be, I

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Speaker 1: don't freaking know. Then you get Cleveland, which likes to

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Speaker 1: run the football, and then you say, well, Tampa's run defense. Well,

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Speaker 1: if you listen to yes or his interview with the

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Beat reporter for the Athletic, Tampa's run defenses

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Speaker 1: and Jack squad and I'm looking at the stats here

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Speaker 1: and uh, they kind of got trucked again. If you

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Speaker 1: if you didn't think it was bad Carolina running all

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Speaker 1: over them. Guss the bus got his and then Kenyan Drake,

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Speaker 1: who I like a jackass. I benched him in fantasy, thinking, Oh,

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Speaker 1: it's Tampa, I can be able to do anything. Gus

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Speaker 1: At sixty five, Drake sixty two, Lamar forty three, duvern A, Uh,

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Speaker 1: either reverse or an end around thirty three, Justice Shi

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Speaker 1: two and thirty one yards on the ground for Baltimore. Guys,

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Speaker 1: are you this is not a good Tampa run defense.

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Speaker 1: And now Shack Barrett's done with an achilles? Are you

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Speaker 1: kidding me? I listen. I don't want to go through

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Speaker 1: every single game on the schedule and bore you, but

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Speaker 1: the bottom line right now, this is like a seven

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Speaker 1: or eight win team in Tampa Bay. I personally, I

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Speaker 1: don't think they're winning in San Francisco in December. By

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Speaker 1: the time they play the Bengals in December, Joe Joe

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Speaker 1: Burrow will have Jamar Chase back Jamar Chase. Obviously you

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Speaker 1: saw the news out four to six weeks. Not ideal,

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Speaker 1: but he should be back for that game. Uh, the

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Speaker 1: game in Arizona on Christmas Day. Listen, I think Arizona's

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Speaker 1: trending upward. We'll get the best bet later. I think

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Speaker 1: they can. Basically I got them covering against Minnesota and

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Speaker 1: I have them on the money line. I think this

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Speaker 1: arrow is pointing up on Arizona. And they closed with

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Speaker 1: Carolina and Atlanta, and they were struggling with both of

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Speaker 1: them this year. So, you know, we talked about Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady in retirement. I just can't believe Tom Brady came

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Speaker 1: back for this. You know, Tom Brady comes back, puts

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Speaker 1: his marriage on the line, and he's got a seven

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Speaker 1: win Tampa Bay team. Now, they still could get to

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Speaker 1: the postseason because, and this is embarrassing, they might host

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Speaker 1: a home playoff game. Now, memory serves rob when Tampa

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Speaker 1: went to the Super Bowl and beat the Chiefs, they

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Speaker 1: had to go to Washington in the first round because

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Speaker 1: Washington hosted a playoff game because they won the division.

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Speaker 1: I think that happened, right, Yes, So there is a

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Speaker 1: chance that seven and ten or eight and nine Tampa

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Speaker 1: hosts a playoff game because they win the really really pathetic,

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Speaker 1: the moribund NFC South. All that being said, Rob, if

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Speaker 1: you're Tom Brady, you could see the frustration mounting with

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Speaker 1: the penalties. He threw a touchdown pass to this tight

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Speaker 1: end who actually the guests yesterday Greg mentioned, I'm not

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Speaker 1: even making this up. My son plays fantasy against his buddy.

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Speaker 1: The dad listens to the podcast. The kid picked up

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Speaker 1: the tight end Otto, whatever his name is. The guy

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Speaker 1: catches a touchdown from Brady, there's a flag, it's holding.

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Speaker 1: It comes back and and Brady like threw up his hands.

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Speaker 1: He was ticked off, and frustration is setting in. Listen.

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Speaker 1: This is this is the that I don't know if

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Speaker 1: this is rock bottom and Tom Brady's career, but it

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Speaker 1: certainly has to be close. Rob. Oh, absolutely, I mean,

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Speaker 1: and it's not like to your point, it's not even

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Speaker 1: just on the football field, like his life around him

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Speaker 1: is falling apart. He sacrificed his his family basically so

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Speaker 1: he could play the Carolina Panthers twice a year and

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Speaker 1: be on a three and five football team. And I

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Speaker 1: feel stupid for saying, you know, a few weeks ago

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Speaker 1: that I thought they were the most dangerous team. They

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Speaker 1: were my pick to come out of the NFC, and

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Speaker 1: I feel dumb, not because I said it. I feel

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Speaker 1: dumb because the writing was on the wall. It should

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Speaker 1: have been there when I made that proclamation. Look, this

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Speaker 1: Chief's team has not played a even solid offensive game

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Speaker 1: all season. The only time you can even point it

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Speaker 1: out would be against the Chiefs when they lost one.

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Speaker 1: But that game was twenty one to three in the

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Speaker 1: first quarter and a half, and so Kansas City went

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Speaker 1: to like a prevent defense moves of the way and

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Speaker 1: just said, all right, go ahead, You're not gonna catch

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Speaker 1: up into us at this rig So we go ahead,

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Speaker 1: and you know, take your yards. Tom Brady, like, this

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Speaker 1: offense looks so bad, it's boring, it's born. And you

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Speaker 1: know what's funny is you and I were joking before

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Speaker 1: the podcast because I know where I get to the

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Speaker 1: NBA today because it's the Football Friday. But I was

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Speaker 1: saying that the Sixers and the Nets should be so

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Speaker 1: thankful that the Lakers exist because nobody's talking about their

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Speaker 1: ugly starts. It's it's all about the Lakers. Similarly, Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady should be so thankful that the Green Bay Packers

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Speaker 1: exist because this taple look all much better than green

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Speaker 1: Bay right now. No, but because Aaron Rodgers does his

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Speaker 1: weekly hits on Pat McAfee show, and he throws his

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Speaker 1: teammates under the bus. That's all anyone's talking about. Well,

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Speaker 1: that that's an interesting comment right now. Who do you

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Speaker 1: think is in worsshape as a team? Green Bay or Tampa.

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Speaker 1: That's actually I was gonna say green Bay because Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers just throwing his teammates under the bus. Brady hasn't

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Speaker 1: gone there. But Brady plays plays a Thursday and in

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Speaker 1: football game at home, loses, frustrated as hell, goes home

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Speaker 1: and his wife ain't even there, and the kid probably

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Speaker 1: not the kids either, and he's all alone in this mansion.

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Speaker 1: Now he's got like the mini bye week, right, and

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Speaker 1: what's he doing is he is his family even with him.

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Speaker 1: You know, you feel a little sad for Tom. He's

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Speaker 1: had enough good things in his life happened obviously. Obviously

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Speaker 1: to answer your question, though, the team that I'm more

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Speaker 1: worried about would be the Green Bay Packers um, even

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Speaker 1: though I think they have a better chance to improve

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Speaker 1: because their issues is really just they have inexperienced guys

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Speaker 1: a receiver, and so you would think as the year

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Speaker 1: goes on, they would get better and better. But to

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Speaker 1: your point, the biggest reason why I'm more confident in

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Speaker 1: Tampa than green Bay is because the NFC South is

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Speaker 1: just terrible and and to your point, they can be

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Speaker 1: a sub five team winning that division and Green Bay

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Speaker 1: doesn't have that luxury at all. By the way, Tampa

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Speaker 1: rushed for whopping forty four yards. That's it, Baltimore two

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Speaker 1: and thirty one. Listen, I would love to crow bar

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Speaker 1: in some NBA some nutjob nets fan through a drink

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Speaker 1: at Luca Um. But I do have to say this

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Speaker 1: about the Bucks and Ravens game. Rob. I had never

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Speaker 1: heard of Isaiah Likely in my life. He went to

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Speaker 1: Coastal Carolina. He was a backup to Mark Andrews. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if he had any any catches or or anything. Um,

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Speaker 1: but I cannot recall Isaiah Likely ever coming on my

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Speaker 1: radar in college or even um in the NFL. Had

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Speaker 1: you heard of him? Yes? And fantasy team no. But

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Speaker 1: because friend of the show Matthew Berry, I'm avid listener

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Speaker 1: to his podcast and he has been talking up Isaiah

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Speaker 1: Likely since the preseason. He was like, Hey, this guy

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Speaker 1: could be the number two option because of how much

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson throws at the tight ends. Now, I didn't

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Speaker 1: need to get him because I had Travis Kelsey, But

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Speaker 1: shout out to a friend of the show, Matthew Berry,

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Speaker 1: for being on this one early. Yeah. Holy cow. So

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Speaker 1: coming into this game, he had looks like eight team

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Speaker 1: catches for a hundred four yards. In this game he

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Speaker 1: had seven for seventy seven and his first NFL touchdown.

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Speaker 1: He just moves like like a big receiver. I mean

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Speaker 1: some of these, some of these moves that he had,

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Speaker 1: and like the toe tap in the back of the

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Speaker 1: end zone was like, this guy's athletic as hell. What

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Speaker 1: a pick in the fourth round. And you know what happens,

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Speaker 1: rob when I see these guys like fourth rounders pop

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Speaker 1: like this, I instantly go to the draft look around

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Speaker 1: there and pray that my Jets didn't riff on some

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Speaker 1: meatball and then they miss out on a guy like

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Speaker 1: Isaiah Likely. Um. But at anyway, Tampa Bay's in a

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Speaker 1: world of trouble and um uh, this is gonna be

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Speaker 1: a long week of soul searching for Is it Thomas

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Speaker 1: Edward Brady? I don't care. I think that I think

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Speaker 1: cold blooded. All right with that, let's get to our

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Speaker 1: guests on today's podcast from The New York Post, Eric Richter.

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Speaker 1: Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes

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Speaker 1: to sports. I know what sports fans want, but for

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Speaker 1: everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. Let's

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Speaker 1: just say I know a guy who knows a guy

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Speaker 1: who knows another guy. All Right, you guys go on

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Speaker 1: straight fire. We like to kind of find the up

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Speaker 1: and coming dudes before they pop um and give him

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Speaker 1: some shine. I've always loved to do that on the

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Speaker 1: Saturday radio show I had back in the day for

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Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio. We've done it a little bit on

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Speaker 1: this podcast. And the next guest here is a guy um.

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Speaker 1: I worked with a buddy, Ryan Glassbeagle at the Big

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Speaker 1: Lead way back, and you know he's into gambling and

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Speaker 1: he's at the New York Post now when he tells

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Speaker 1: me to Jay, gotta get on this guy, Eric, he

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Speaker 1: he just started here. He's moving m m a lines,

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Speaker 1: he's killing the props. So I start following Eric on

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Speaker 1: Twitter and I'm like, all right, dude, you gotta come

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Speaker 1: on the show. So let's welcome in of the New

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Speaker 1: York Post Eric Richter, Eric, how are you man? Well?

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Speaker 1: That is a hell of an introduction. Thanks, Jason. I

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Speaker 1: appreciate it. Man. Yeah, yeah, so you are kind of well,

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Speaker 1: we'll get the NFL in a sect. But your background

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Speaker 1: of not only do you cover and gamble on m

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Speaker 1: m A, but you are a jiu jitsu fighter yourself, Yes, sir, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: blue belt jiu jitsu, have been training for almost four

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Speaker 1: years and absolutely love it. That's kind of where I

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Speaker 1: started betting on mm A. UM. Also obviously huge sports fan.

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Speaker 1: I cover every sport football, basketball, or my probably my

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Speaker 1: main betting sports as long as well as M m A.

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Speaker 1: But otherwise I think baseball is not as much of

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Speaker 1: a thing. I feel it's just all walk based barrel

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Speaker 1: percentage is I'm sure the Yankees can relate to that

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Speaker 1: with the Aaron Judge complaints on that home run. But

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Speaker 1: but yeah, sports betting with the New York Post. Prior

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Speaker 1: to that, I was with the Action Network that does

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Speaker 1: their sports betting powerhouse that they have become. UM. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: so super hugged to be here and I appreciate you

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Speaker 1: having yeah, and so you know, gambling on social media. Eric,

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Speaker 1: I, I I know you're a little on the younger side obviously,

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Speaker 1: but it's just so funny the the anonymous guys always

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Speaker 1: win all the time. They don't post their picks, but

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Speaker 1: they tell you they win all the time, and then

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Speaker 1: they come after when you lose. Um, I'm just curious.

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Speaker 1: You are on the rise. How much of this gambling

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Speaker 1: social media nonsense do you take in or are you

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Speaker 1: able to totally avoid it? It's mostly bs uh, to

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Speaker 1: be honest with you, all of the gambling touts out there,

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Speaker 1: there are some legitimate ones, and yet you really have

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Speaker 1: to pick and choose. But when you have, you know,

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Speaker 1: people are just like, well, you know this is my

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Speaker 1: lock of the week, my max bomb play twenty units here,

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Speaker 1: twenty five units here. That's not real sports betting. And

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Speaker 1: and to be honest with you, like with the parlays

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Speaker 1: and all that stuff, like it's cool to parlay sometimes,

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Speaker 1: and I can go into teaching people how to actually

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Speaker 1: parlay and do same game parlays, but there is there's

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Speaker 1: a way to do it. There's a way not to

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Speaker 1: do it, and a lot of things you see online

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Speaker 1: it's not how you do it. Um, But if it wins,

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Speaker 1: you know you get all you get all the Twitter cloud.

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Speaker 1: You have fifty followers on Twitter, and you know, and

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Speaker 1: then you can probably sell it to somebody at from

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Speaker 1: that point, you know, I have a big following, but

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Speaker 1: there is a way to do it right and there's

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Speaker 1: a way to do it wrong. And a lot of

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Speaker 1: Twitter gambling Twitter is just nonsense. So one last thing,

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Speaker 1: because you're younger, So I'm on a bunch of different

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Speaker 1: group text chains for gambling with buddies. And literally today

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Speaker 1: a guy sent me a TikTok of some guy I

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Speaker 1: have no idea who he is, hyping up all his

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Speaker 1: winds and giving out all these crazy picks. I am curious, Eric,

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Speaker 1: you're of the younger set. Are you on TikTok? And

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Speaker 1: have you seen these gambling people on TikTok? I'm not

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Speaker 1: a big TikTok guy, I'll be honest, um, but that

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Speaker 1: I have heard that there's a lot of stuff that

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Speaker 1: goes on with TikTok. Like there's this one guy I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna say his name, but you know he's always

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Speaker 1: like getting into like fake Twitter beefs with people just

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Speaker 1: to like that's his way of getting like, um, just

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Speaker 1: more followers. Everyone likes controversy three so everyone, so he'll

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Speaker 1: like attack somebody for getting a pick wrong and then

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Speaker 1: they'll have a back and forth and then he'll get

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Speaker 1: the rug from it. It's really it's really odd the

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Speaker 1: way people get followers on social media in gambling Twitter.

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Speaker 1: It's bizarre and it's just really not how like the

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Speaker 1: real world works. You're just giving people bad advice. Totally agree. Alright,

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Speaker 1: let's so let's get every every Friday, we break out

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Speaker 1: the NFL schedule, go through it, go through picks. I

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Speaker 1: haven't bet a lot this week. I'll confess up front. Uh,

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Speaker 1: Monday night hurt bad. I was on the Patriots big

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Speaker 1: they knocked me out of both of my survivor pools.

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Speaker 1: UM one is a very big money one. It hurts.

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Speaker 1: So I didn't look at gambling for I think like

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Speaker 1: almost forty eight hours. I just avoided everything. Um, I'm

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Speaker 1: back in now. I have a couple of bets. Any

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Speaker 1: games jump out to you on the week eight card

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Speaker 1: this weekend. Um, you can start with the London game.

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Speaker 1: You can go to any high profile games. A couple

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Speaker 1: of double digit uh spreads? Uh? Any what what what

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Speaker 1: do you see that you like? Pop? One that I

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Speaker 1: looked at was my King's card. I don't really, I

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Speaker 1: don't really see how the Vikings are three and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorites. Uh, they're probably there besides the Giants, right,

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Speaker 1: they're lucky. They're really lucky five and one team. Um

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Speaker 1: and just looking at it, uh, through like overall the

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Speaker 1: offenses here are just going to clash. These are horrible

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Speaker 1: defensive teams at best. This is gonna be a coin

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Speaker 1: flip game. You get the Cardinals here a plus one

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Speaker 1: fifty five on DraftKings. I mean, I'm all over that.

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Speaker 1: I like the over as well. Um and uh, former

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Speaker 1: colleague of mine at the Action now with Seawan Corner

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Speaker 1: created something called the luck Rankings. I'm not sure if

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Speaker 1: you're familiar where your listeners are familiar, but essentially what

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Speaker 1: he did was he created um expected scores of each game,

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Speaker 1: combined them into into expected records, so he didn't expected

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Speaker 1: scores of each game, and then combined into expected records

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Speaker 1: with the goal of having the luckiest team in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: So the number one luckiest team in the NFL is

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Speaker 1: the New York Giants, the least lucky team is the

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Speaker 1: New England Patriots, which might surprise people. Seven the YEP

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Speaker 1: then and then the seventh luckiest team or the Minnesota Vikings,

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Speaker 1: so UM, and so that would say that they're five

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Speaker 1: one records a little bit flukey, right, so you can

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Speaker 1: kind of throw out the record on that one, UM,

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Speaker 1: and then you'll just say, you know, the Cardinals are

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Speaker 1: right where they're supposed to be in terms of luck.

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Speaker 1: They're sixteenth, which is directly in the middle, and there

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Speaker 1: are three and four, so it makes sense. UM, so

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Speaker 1: that you know, self, I think is very valuable and

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Speaker 1: against the spread, they're hitting at picks. When when when

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Speaker 1: you compare the luck rankings, UM, and then when you

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Speaker 1: go into the actual like nuts and bolts of the game,

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Speaker 1: the Vikings their ninth ranked on a profile Pro Football

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Speaker 1: Focus UM in defense that's really on the back of

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Speaker 1: the run defense. The third best run defense in the

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Speaker 1: NFL according to Pro Football Focus, but they have the

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Speaker 1: second worst past defense. Cardinals are really running the ball

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Speaker 1: anyway they're gonna be, they're gonna be airing it out.

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Speaker 1: So and then you have the Cardinals were also the

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Speaker 1: third worst coverage defense. So you're looking at these two,

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Speaker 1: it screams and over on forty nine, it screams a

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Speaker 1: coin flip game where you know anything to kind of happened.

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Speaker 1: You take the those plus one um and you can

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Speaker 1: you can go plus three and a half. You want,

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Speaker 1: you want that hook. I mean that hook is very important.

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Speaker 1: But I'd say right off the bat, you're looking at

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals there if you want to tack some props,

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Speaker 1: Kyler Murray rushing yards, Kyler Murray rushing touchdown, DeAndre Hopkins everything,

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Speaker 1: because Kyler Murray loved well. I think also the Vikings,

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Speaker 1: according a Football Outsiders, have ranked thirty feet in the

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Speaker 1: league defender defending number one wide receivers. They've just gotten

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Speaker 1: torched their dead last against tight end. So I have

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Speaker 1: an Earth's prop. I was going to give out later,

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Speaker 1: but I'm with you. Arizona one of the teams. I

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Speaker 1: bet I am curious. You know trends, We talked about

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Speaker 1: them a lot, right, So there's all these trends. Fox

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Speaker 1: provides them to me. They have Cliff Kingsbury fifteen three

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Speaker 1: and two against the spread as an underdog on the road. Right,

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Speaker 1: So now people will say, well, wait is it what

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Speaker 1: about the Seattle game? They just lost that because and

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Speaker 1: I'll say no, they were actually favored in that game.

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Speaker 1: I was on Arizona. That one hurt uh, Cliff Kinsbury's

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Speaker 1: one eighth straight on the road as a dog, like

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Speaker 1: for whatever a reason getting away from Arizona, Like, does

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Speaker 1: that matter at all to you? Obviously it's baked into

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Speaker 1: the spread. But when you hear that and trends in general,

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Speaker 1: what is it? What do they do for you? Everything

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Speaker 1: is case by case, right, so not everything is something

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Speaker 1: but not Uh, something is everything, but not everything is

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Speaker 1: something when it comes to that. So, um, when it

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Speaker 1: comes to like playing as an underdog, that is something

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Speaker 1: that you'll take into account. But when you're talking about like, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, um on the road on you know, second October,

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Speaker 1: a second week of October, like in the last like

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Speaker 1: five years, Like I was looking at um, it's like,

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Speaker 1: how are the Patriots do against the Jets? Historically? Throw

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Speaker 1: it out the window. It doesn't matter because you know,

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Speaker 1: you have Brady and Belichick. It's a different team, different culturally,

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Speaker 1: different everything. So when it comes to the trends, I'm

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Speaker 1: a little ify on them. Um, you know, the ones

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Speaker 1: that really matter here, I would say, are the wins

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Speaker 1: on single possession? How many wins did they have at

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Speaker 1: that very end of the game. Let's say those are

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Speaker 1: the ones that matter as an underdog. I'll take that

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Speaker 1: into account. It's not going to factor a ton um,

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Speaker 1: but you know, it is, like it is important to

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Speaker 1: know if Kyler Murray is good as an underdog. You know,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of variants involved there. Yeah, the Vikings, Um,

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Speaker 1: they beat the Lions by four, they got lucky, they

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Speaker 1: had to come back late. They beat the Saints by

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Speaker 1: three that London game. Again some luck involved last second

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Speaker 1: field goal, beat the Bears when they survived a late

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Speaker 1: justin fields drive. And then they beat the Miami second

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Speaker 1: and third string quarterbacks. So and they were good offensively

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Speaker 1: in that game. Like, I like this team a lot,

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Speaker 1: I just don't think they're that good. So I would

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Speaker 1: agree with the luck rankings. Would you say they were seventh?

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Speaker 1: So the Vikings are seventh, and then the Cardinals are

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Speaker 1: smacking a little middle at sixteen, that's right where they

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Speaker 1: should be. The Vikings at seventh, I would put them

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Speaker 1: in the elite category in the NFL's very likely not that,

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Speaker 1: especially with Week one they beat the Packers and that

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Speaker 1: that wins and look at yeah that's a great point.

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Speaker 1: So the number one team you said in luck is

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Speaker 1: the New York Giants and they are six and one,

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Speaker 1: and I think some people are gonna be surprised that

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Speaker 1: their road dogs in Seattle. It's a tough road spot, right,

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Speaker 1: they get back from London, they're at home against the

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Speaker 1: Ravens team then fly down to Jacksonville. Now they're flying

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Speaker 1: to Seattle. They got the bye week coming up. Seattle's hot.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I I'm I think I'm going to take

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Speaker 1: the Giants here in the contest, but I don't feel

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Speaker 1: totally convinced of it. Um or you have anything on

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Speaker 1: this game, I probably talk you off the ledge on

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Speaker 1: that one. Um so set fan. Yeah, so I was

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Speaker 1: at I'm a Giants fan. I was at the game

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Speaker 1: against the Ravens. I was, I was on the Ravens,

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Speaker 1: and then I went to Jacksonville. I was, I was

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Speaker 1: on jackson I was on the jet the Giants in Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: I flew to Jacksonville for the game. And that was

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Speaker 1: a Giants home game if I've ever seen one. It

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Speaker 1: was sevent Giants fans. I've never seen anything like it

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Speaker 1: like Jacksonville. I don't know if they just don't have fans.

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Speaker 1: My first time going to their stadium, but it was

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Speaker 1: unreal that was a Giant's home game, So yeah, it

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Speaker 1: was a road game technically, but if you were you know,

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Speaker 1: they were plus three. If that was gonna be a

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Speaker 1: money line at the Giants home stadium, it was pretty

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Speaker 1: much I pick him there. When you go to Seattle,

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Speaker 1: you're dealing with the twelfth Man and they are fired

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Speaker 1: up right now. They had Pete Carroll has that team

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Speaker 1: jumping up and down. They are talking all sorts of

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Speaker 1: sh about Russell Wilson. Um, they're doing the whole thing

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Speaker 1: right now. So I would say Giants are probably a

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Speaker 1: stay away there. Even at the plus three, I think

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks are probably gonna win out right and cover. Um.

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Speaker 1: I just not. I'm not into the Giants on the

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Speaker 1: road yet. I'll see, but these last two upsets, those

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Speaker 1: were home games. Don't let the location actually for you.

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Speaker 1: The home road thing is weird. So Daniel Jones, for whatever,

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Speaker 1: I stopped betting him at home because he was so

426
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 1: bad on the road fifteen and six against the spread.

427
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's the bright light to New York,

428
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,679
Speaker 1: but the only reason I brought this game up was uh,

429
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:51,439
Speaker 1: and it applies to the Arizona game. One of the

430
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,240
Speaker 1: things I look at is pressure rate getting to the quarterback.

431
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 1: Arizona they love to dial up the blitz. They pressure

432
00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: the hell out of the quarterbacks. I think Kirk Cousins

433
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 1: will struggle. He historically has against pressure. The other guy,

434
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 1: Gino Smith, Arizona dialed up the pressure their number two

435
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,360
Speaker 1: in pressure rate, and Gino had like his worst game

436
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 1: of the season. Now they still won because freaking Cliff

437
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 1: Kingsbury's an idiot when kid Field goals. Um, but I'm

438
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 1: just curious, Wink Martindale is gonna blitz the ship out

439
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 1: of Gino And I was just wonder is Geno gonna crumble?

440
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 1: No DK Metcalf at least it looks like he's not

441
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,639
Speaker 1: gonna play. Um, you know, maybe you could throw it

442
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 1: up the locket a little bit, but I don't know,

443
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,439
Speaker 1: I think, and again I don't like the Giants have

444
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,440
Speaker 1: a Jets guy, But I don't know. We'll see, we'll

445
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 1: we'll TBD that one. Um, do you have any other

446
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 1: games that you have fired on yet or are you

447
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 1: looking at getting into for sure? So I'm interested in

448
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 1: em Bears if they were to get to tend that's

449
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 1: something to look at their right not gonna have everywhere.

450
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 1: I'm interested at ten just because they run the ball

451
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 1: in the and the Cowboys have a bad run defense

452
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 1: their fifth worst by Pro Football Focus. And that's important

453
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 1: because the Cowboys haven't really played any high pressure or

454
00:22:55,840 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: high quality run offenses. They're not facing Lamar Jackson yet, um,

455
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 1: you know, so that's something to look at because the

456
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 1: Cowboys run defense is ranked very low by Profoble group

457
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 1: Profball Focus, fifth worst. Didn't love what I saw from

458
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,919
Speaker 1: Dak looked like a rich Man's Cooper rush. Mobility has

459
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 1: kind of gone from his game, uh, to be honest,

460
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 1: and and mobility has kind of gone for from his

461
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 1: game in the reality. So you know, I just I

462
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 1: don't really trust the Cowboys. They're as ten point favorites.

463
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 1: And I think that the Bears, Yes, like it was

464
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 1: like a lucky little situation. They had a bunch of

465
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 1: momentum going with the Patriots, but they at least got

466
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 1: Justin Field out of the pocket, right, They weren't doing

467
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 1: that by the way we're used to, Eric, were you

468
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:37,439
Speaker 1: surprised that the Patriots did not spy Justin Fields? Like?

469
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 1: Belichick is a great coach obviously, and and and he

470
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 1: had nobody's spine. Field Field just tucked and run. I

471
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 1: felt like every other play. Yeah, that was unreal. You know,

472
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 1: I don't even think it's a belt. It was definitely

473
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 1: a Belichick problem. But I also think it's more of

474
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 1: a personnel problem, um, because I don't think that he

475
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 1: has a linebacker. He doesn't have Dante Hi Tower anymore. Right,

476
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: Like that's a problem, Like they haven't been able to

477
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,639
Speaker 1: get that linebacker in the door. They can get that

478
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 1: linebacker in the door one day. Maybe they can do

479
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 1: more things like that. But if you're gonna ask a safety,

480
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 1: do you ask Jalen Mills to go out there and

481
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 1: and spy him? Like? Probably not. Um. I think he

482
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 1: was actually kind of trying to do that with Matthew

483
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:19,680
Speaker 1: Judon Uh, to be honest with you, he's an animal.

484
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 1: I think that they were trying to do that with

485
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 1: Judon Um a little bit with Fields, but he's just

486
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,120
Speaker 1: not fast enough. There's and you know, it just seems

487
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 1: like he didn't know what to do with with a

488
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 1: moving quarterback, Belichick, and that's a problem. I am curious

489
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 1: speaking of moving quarterbacks, justin Fields will be facing a

490
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 1: Cowboys defense that I mean, obviously Michael Parsons is a beast.

491
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,679
Speaker 1: I think they lead the league in sex. One interesting

492
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 1: nugget is they've now faced I mean, if we're gonna

493
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 1: count Daniel Jones Jalen Hurts, they faced three running quarterbacks

494
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:51,359
Speaker 1: so far. So this will not be really anything new.

495
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 1: And I am curious, like you can't quantify it. But

496
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 1: Bears win a incredible primetime game. Everybody says, oh, suddenly,

497
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 1: they're probably not the worst team the league. They're probably

498
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 1: not thirty one. And I don't know if you stall

499
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 1: a locker room videos. They were dancing like they won

500
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 1: the super Bowl. But there's Justin, Justin Fields doing every

501
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 1: dance known demand, there's I mean, it was a long

502
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 1: celebration and now you've got to kind of not a

503
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 1: quick turnaround, but short week, and you got to travel again,

504
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 1: this time to Dallas, and Dallas did not look good.

505
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 1: They didn't look sharp. I was on Detroit, and of

506
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 1: course Detroit was covering for fifty six minutes to start

507
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 1: the game and screw it up with Jared. I was

508
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 1: looking at Dallas. Here you think at tenants the Bears?

509
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 1: Is it Dallas and half nine and a half to

510
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 1: stay away? Um, I'm not. I don't. It's not even

511
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 1: so much. The Cowboys defense is elite. I have them

512
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 1: pretty much in every fantasy team. Like I love the

513
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: Cowboys defense, They're extremely elite. My problem is their offense.

514
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 1: I really don't think that Doc is what he used

515
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 1: to be, and I think that without Zeke there might

516
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 1: not even have the ball control. Everyone's really on Tony

517
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 1: Pollard's like, you know, you know Tony Pollard RB one season, right,

518
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 1: everybody's staying that. But for me, I would say that

519
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 1: I have issues with the Cowboys offense more so than

520
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 1: the Cowboys defense. If the Bears can do a little

521
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: do a little stay away, keep away, and um, the

522
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 1: Cowboys run defense, like I said, not great, doesn't rank

523
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: well in full advanced stats. I'll take the Bears at

524
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 1: plus ten nine and a half. I'm not touching about

525
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 1: I forgot to ask what about the Robert Quinn trade.

526
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know that it's a fire sale

527
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: because they don't have much talent. But after you get

528
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: a big win, you're like all fired up, and then

529
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 1: they trade their second best defensive player. I think I saw, um,

530
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: what's the linebacker? Um, ro Quan Smith. I think he

531
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,959
Speaker 1: was like tearing up over the lost crime. Yeah, how

532
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 1: does the locker room react? Like again, I would think

533
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 1: they would be like, oh, nobody cares, but Carolina trades

534
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 1: McCaffrey and then they beat Tampa Bay. So can you

535
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,639
Speaker 1: can you factor that into the handicap at all? Not really?

536
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: I mean if we were just say, like, you know,

537
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 1: some quarterbacks are worth barely a half of a point

538
00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 1: on a spread, I would say, you know, a defensive end,

539
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 1: even even if he's like a top level one, I'd

540
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 1: say your maximum is probably worth half a point for

541
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,679
Speaker 1: for one player. So I would say Bears with Robert Quinn,

542
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 1: the Cowboys aren't gonna be passing the ball very much anyway,

543
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: unless it's just an emotional thing. Could be an emotional

544
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,439
Speaker 1: thing for sure, where it just you know, frustrates like

545
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 1: the team in the locker room and stuff like that.

546
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 1: But in terms of like points, like, there's even stats

547
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,879
Speaker 1: out there to quantify the point differential on a spread

548
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,360
Speaker 1: compared from the starter to back up, and I think

549
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 1: like the highest one last year was Aaron Rodgers worth

550
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:36,879
Speaker 1: like six points to the spread versus love um, I

551
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 1: would say that Robert Quinn is probably worth half the

552
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 1: point even joke that Butler was worth a point and

553
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 1: a half to the Chiefs not having him killed him

554
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 1: against Uh was it the Colts game? They they special teams,

555
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 1: just a disaster. Um, here's something so, you know, on

556
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,679
Speaker 1: the Herd on Thursday, Mark Sanchez said something interesting. He

557
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: was announcing the Chargers Seahawks game, and you know they

558
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 1: talk to the teams before and he said on air,

559
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: just so people don't think I'm divulging anything, He's like, yeah,

560
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 1: the Chargers were talking about the bye week and they

561
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 1: were getting ready to ahead of the bye week, and

562
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: you know, the vibe was bye week and they come

563
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: out and they're down seventeen nothing. And I started to

564
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 1: look at this. Um. So I looked at the last

565
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 1: three weeks. Teams playing before their by have gone eight

566
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 1: and two heading into the bye only two teams lost.

567
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 1: They were coached by bad coaches, Brandon Staley and Dan Campbell.

568
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell got destroyed in New England twenty nine nothing.

569
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 1: When you hear something like that, is it even worth

570
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 1: a look? Because there are six teams getting ready to

571
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 1: go on the bye week this week, and again, I

572
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 1: know that's tough to factor into a handicap because you

573
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 1: can't put a number on it. But again it's a mindset.

574
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: You're an athlete, you do jiu jitsu. You know you're

575
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: going on vacation next week. You know the girlfriends saying, hey,

576
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: should we packed this? Or wife? Whatever you got? Um.

577
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 1: You know these guys on the in the NFL, they're

578
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 1: kind of excited for the bye week. I mean they

579
00:28:57,880 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 1: haven't seen their families or spent time with him since

580
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: in August. I don't know, does that factory because Dallas

581
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 1: is on the buy next week? I have McCarthy. I

582
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 1: don't know if you like McCarthy as a coach or not. UM,

583
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 1: I'll just say the other teams are Cleveland, they play

584
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 1: Monday Night. Their coaches not great. Denver Nathaniel Hackett maybe

585
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 1: gets left in London. Uh, the Giants are going into

586
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: the buy, but they have a good coach. Uh. Pittsburgh

587
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 1: Tomlin and then San fran which is interesting we'll talk

588
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 1: about in a second. That's interesting. UM. I actually haven't

589
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: heard of that staff before eating two going into a

590
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 1: bybe with the two coaches who lost are terrible. Man,

591
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: that is a tough one. UM. I would say, again,

592
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 1: everything is something something. Uh, everything is something. Not everything

593
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 1: is everything. Not something is everything. Um, but that's a

594
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: that's a tough one because, like, you know, eating two

595
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:47,959
Speaker 1: bad coaches lost, I'd like, I'd like to see like

596
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 1: all the coaches now ended up winning. Um. My only

597
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 1: reason for that is because like why, like it was

598
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 1: were they on the road? Were they at home? Like

599
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,080
Speaker 1: I feel like there's more data to breakdown. That's just

600
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 1: just sitting on like an eating two going into the

601
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 1: bye with the two coaches being bad, I kind of

602
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 1: would want to see the other teams that ended up winning.

603
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 1: And then also, um, you know what, there are other

604
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 1: circumstances where road home underdog favorite stuff like that. Though

605
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 1: the Chargers bad loss, Brandon's Daley is not looking good

606
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 1: and me and Glass people have been on it for

607
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 1: a little bit. Chargers not to make the playoffs was

608
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 1: plus three hundred after week one, Um, and that is

609
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: looking for not that team has been decimated, absolutely decimated

610
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 1: by injuries. Well, the only the only thing is Denver

611
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 1: stinks and I don't know if the Raiders are good

612
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: so they could luck. I mean, the a f C

613
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 1: has been really upside down. I mean, hell, you know, Bengals,

614
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 1: Ravens have not been able to get separation. You know,

615
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 1: it's that's a I think that's a good bet. You know,

616
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 1: plus three hundred. You said, yeah, yeah, but then you

617
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 1: got a root against Justin Herbert, who I think is very,

618
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 1: very likable. Another game, I'm curious if you're if you

619
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 1: have anything on this. UM, the Carolina Panthers go to Um, Atlanta.

620
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 1: Carolina not good, but just beat Tampa. A lot of

621
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 1: people I think would think I will just fade them

622
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 1: Atlanta covering machine that they ran out of gas last

623
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 1: week against the Bengals, and I wonder, but then you

624
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 1: look at the line movement and money coming in on Carolina.

625
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 1: There are cluster injuries in the secondary for Atlanta that

626
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 1: is really troublesome. Now, d J Moore, I haven't been fantasy.

627
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 1: I don't know if you do fantasy, but I haven't

628
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: played DJ more in weeks because he's kind of a bump.

629
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 1: But I think I'm starting in this week against Atlanta. Yeah,

630
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 1: hotlant a terrible defense. UM and you know, I mean

631
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 1: I believe Mario would have had like, whats like, what

632
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:46,479
Speaker 1: are they doing in Atlanta? Arthur Smith not a huge fan. UM,

633
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 1: you know, Carolina money coming in on Carolina. I saw

634
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 1: there plus five, plus five and hats going down. It's

635
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 1: going down to four. That's very interesting. Um, here's here's

636
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:58,959
Speaker 1: what I say about that. P J. Walker is a

637
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 1: clear upgrade. Were big that it's clear at this point

638
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: that Baker Mayfield one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.

639
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 1: And it's nothing against him, but um, that's just kind

640
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 1: of where Carolina is. I think they actually kind of

641
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 1: believed in PIJA Walker a little bit last week. I

642
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: think that that was a big part of it. He

643
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 1: looked pretty good. Um at plus four, I would say, yeah,

644
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 1: I mean, that's probably a decent spot. If it gets

645
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 1: to three, though, I'm not touching it. That's there. Your

646
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 1: number there is big four. Four, Okay, three absolutely not

647
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: So you know, it's it's funny how those things can change.

648
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 1: But when when you're looking at the spreads four versus three,

649
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 1: I mean, it's tough, but three not not a touch

650
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 1: at three. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk

651
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 1: lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows at

652
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: Fox sports Radio dot com and within the I Heart

653
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 1: Radio app. Search f s R to listen live to

654
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 1: double digit games. Philadelphia is minus ten and a half

655
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: I'm seeing at home against Pittsburgh and the Packers are

656
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: eleven and a half point dogs in Buffalo. Um, are

657
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 1: you paying attacks if you're betting those two? Because I

658
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 1: think everybody the narrative right now is Buffalo, Ksey and

659
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 1: Philly are by far the best teams in the league,

660
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 1: and then there's a ship ton of middle class and

661
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: so I feel like if you're betting on Buffalo or

662
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 1: or Philly, you're paying a little bit of attacks, right

663
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 1: for sure? And well it's not even just attacks, um,

664
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 1: because you know you're getting the elite teams. It's attacks

665
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 1: because you're also getting them off of a bye. Everyone's like, oh, well,

666
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 1: you know, Buffalo off of a bye, Philadelphia off of

667
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 1: a bye. You know, like you need to get extra

668
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 1: time to prepare. But let's be honest, here, are the

669
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: Eagles really sitting up at night, you know, paying extra

670
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: attention to preparing for Kenny Pickett? Probably not right, you

671
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 1: know that that's not what's really happening there. So um,

672
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 1: in terms of the Eagles one staying away. UM, I'd

673
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: actually lean Packers at plus eleven and a half because

674
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 1: that's just an absurd number. Plus eleven and a half

675
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 1: absurd Packers. I mean, and here's here's the case for

676
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: green Bay. They're running offense is fantastic. Aaron Jones and

677
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 1: a J. Dillon are very solid players. Buffalo is obviously

678
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 1: going to stack the box. This might be an opportunity

679
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: for Aaron Rodgers, who's also called out all of his

680
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 1: teammates over the last week. There could be a spot

681
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: where maybe Romeo Dobbs doesn't dropped the game winning touchdown

682
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:14,720
Speaker 1: his pagris, maybe this is the spot where he actually

683
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 1: catches it, you know, hold onto the ball. Um, you know,

684
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 1: if they're going to stack the box with a J.

685
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 1: Dillon and Aaron Jones, I think plus eleven is fine. Um,

686
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 1: if you had told me preseason that the Packers and

687
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 1: plus four versus Bills take that all day, you know.

688
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: But I mean, I'm not sure if they went out right,

689
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 1: you know in Buffalo. But you know, Packers aren't afraid

690
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 1: of any a little cold, so I'd say plus eleven

691
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 1: and a half. I mean, come on, and this is

692
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:44,239
Speaker 1: a Bills team last year that lost against Jacksonville Pittsburgh.

693
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 1: I think they had a third pretty weak loss that

694
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 1: was just unimpressive. And one more thing is that Um,

695
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 1: there are there is sharp money coming in on Green

696
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,399
Speaker 1: Bay as of today of the money is on Green

697
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 1: Bay and the bets. So whenever the bets the the

698
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 1: amount of the percent of bets is lower than the

699
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 1: amount of money that's coming in, that's when you know

700
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 1: sharp money is coming in. Short money is coming in

701
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 1: on a Green Bay at this point. So that's that's

702
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 1: good that you brought that up because we've had a

703
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:15,439
Speaker 1: couple of guests say that they look at the bet percentages. Um. Now,

704
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 1: sometimes you know that you'll say eighty percent of the

705
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: money is coming in on a certain team. But was

706
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 1: that at was that at eleven and a half? Is

707
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: that eleven is a ten and a half? Ten? Like?

708
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 1: Do they break that down for you? I don't know

709
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 1: where you where you find that. I think Visan has

710
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 1: a page with that for DraftKings, But um, do they

711
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: break it down like how much money was coming in

712
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 1: at what number? So they don't have that in terms

713
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 1: of coming in at each number. But it's something that

714
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 1: you should probably especially like sports betting, like I am

715
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 1: something you should probably keep it keep on top of.

716
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 1: There was no sharp money coming in as of two

717
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 1: days ago. Last time that I look, there's no sharp

718
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 1: money coming in on Green Bay. UM as of today,

719
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 1: eight percent of the money on Green Bay. So, I

720
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 1: mean a couple of big bets came in in the

721
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 1: last forty hours last time I looked, UM. So a

722
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 1: couple of big bets coming in there would point to

723
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: some wise guys are probably going to start attacking eleven

724
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 1: and a half most likely the value there. UM. You

725
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 1: know there's sharp action big money UM are kind of

726
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 1: what you want to look for, and both of them

727
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:20,240
Speaker 1: are right there. Yeah, it's interesting that you say a

728
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 1: road dog of double digits getting that. I mean, that's

729
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 1: kind of unheard of. Yeah, I don't think I get

730
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 1: that often. Uh. Let's wrap up with any props that

731
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 1: jump out of you. For instance, UH, forty Niners rams

732
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 1: UM Shanahan has dominated McVeigh, but there are significant injuries

733
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 1: to the Niners. I can't bet san France in this UM.

734
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 1: It looks like Deebo Samuel may not play. And it's

735
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: funny because Debo has killed the Rams all their prestap motion.

736
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 1: They I don't know if they lose track of Deebo Samuel,

737
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 1: but he has murdered and San France missing use check

738
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 1: their fullback. I think they're gonna be down like three

739
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 1: or four defensive starters. But I just don't like what

740
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 1: the Rams are putting out, the product they're they're sending out,

741
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 1: So I'm skipping this game. But are there any props

742
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 1: that that you've looked at? Uh, Cooper Cup, I believe

743
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 1: is receiving prop was and a half. You'll probably get

744
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 1: into a hundred um. I mean, that's just what make

745
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:15,839
Speaker 1: a lot of money just betting Cooper Cup every week basically, right, Yeah,

746
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 1: Cooper Cup overs pretty much on the regular um but

747
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 1: interest in terms of coverage UM, the forty Niners don't

748
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 1: have a very good coverage unit UM and Cooper Cup

749
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: is typically crushed them me is over a hundred yards

750
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: I think four straight games prior to the last time

751
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 1: that these two teams played, so um. I would say

752
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 1: like that, if you want to, like look at a

753
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 1: Cooper Cup, maybe uh score touchdown probably like minus one twenty.

754
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 1: I'm not really targeting that game for props. I do

755
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 1: have a couple of problems for the Jets versus um

756
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 1: um well overs, but maybe not in the way that

757
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 1: you're thinking. Let me let me get Zach Wilson passing yardage?

758
00:37:55,920 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 1: What is it? Uh one s nine? The line has

759
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 1: not come out for that one yet at the time,

760
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: but it's probably like one seven. It's probably in that area.

761
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 1: He hasn't passed forever. He might need to if they

762
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,720
Speaker 1: were there behind here. That's my issue with Zack Wilson

763
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:16,360
Speaker 1: right um. His completion percentage when he's under pressure that

764
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 1: is unbelievably bad. He's been pressured forty two times as

765
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 1: fifty four yards with two interceptions. I will target Zach

766
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 1: Wilson to throw an interception anything better than mine if

767
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 1: you can give me anything better than taking it. If

768
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 1: it's one and a half minus one, so a little

769
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:35,719
Speaker 1: bit of juice. All he has to do is throw

770
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 1: a pick. Now. The only problem with that is let

771
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 1: special teams. The Jets have been excellent. Let's say that

772
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 1: the Patriots, who, by the way, did you see their

773
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 1: punter was terrible on Monday, so now they brought in

774
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 1: new punters, special teams a little shaky. If the Jets

775
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 1: happened to take advantage and they're up, I don't know,

776
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 1: ten ten, ten three. I don't think we're gonna see

777
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 1: a lot of Zach Wilson throwing I think Sale thinks

778
00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 1: his defense could. I don't know if you saw the

779
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,399
Speaker 1: stat I think it was from Football Focus that Matt

780
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 1: Jones has been the worst quarterback e p A against

781
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:08,400
Speaker 1: the Blitz this year by a mile. Russell Wilson second.

782
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 1: And it's like, if the Jets can't get the lead somehow,

783
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 1: I don't think that's gonna be throwing the ball a lot. No. No,

784
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 1: Robert Salo has made it very clear he does not

785
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 1: trust Sack Wilson. So Pro Football Focus grade for for

786
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson under pressure was twenty three. The only one

787
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 1: worse was Mac Jones at two point. Those are the

788
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 1: worst quarterbacks in the NFL against the pressure. It's really bad. Um.

789
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 1: Just take a step further. Average yards per attempt when

790
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:34,919
Speaker 1: under pressure is that Wilson is just dumping the ball

791
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 1: off one point seven yards per attempt under pressure. It's

792
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: just terrible, UM, Robert Sala, either he's not coaching him

793
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 1: up enough, or the floor is not helping him enough

794
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 1: and not giving enough three bees, which is what's really

795
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 1: important for growing quarterback, or they just don't trust him,

796
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 1: they don't think he's the guy. I'm not sure which

797
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 1: one's which, um, But for In terms of a prop

798
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 1: for that one, I'm on microL Carter over receptions pretty

799
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 1: much anywhere you can get it. He's going to be

800
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 1: the clear receiving back. Thing. Just and shout out to Jacksonville.

801
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 1: This is how you trade a player that you clearly

802
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,759
Speaker 1: don't want. They got a six a conditional fifth for

803
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 1: James Robinson. The Giants just got a third for con

804
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 1: aias Tony, so that that does even make sense. James

805
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,479
Speaker 1: Robinson is the eighth worst running back in the NFL

806
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 1: according a Pro Football Focus two point yes, eighth worst

807
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 1: running back and with his elusive rating, Um, he's a

808
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 1: decent pass blocker. That's like his only redeeming quality. That's

809
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:28,799
Speaker 1: so James Robinson does not make people miss. Well, that's

810
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 1: not good behind this Jets offensive line. No, the Jets

811
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,240
Speaker 1: offensive line, and so that's another thing. The Jets offensive

812
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 1: line is the seventh worst against the run block run blocking,

813
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 1: and Jacksonville is the eighth worst with run blocking. So

814
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 1: when you obviously those are gonna be the same. You

815
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 1: have Michael Carter who's ranked in the top half of

816
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:47,320
Speaker 1: running backs, and they have James Robinson, who's ranked eighth worst.

817
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 1: You trade a fifth round pick form really didn't make sense.

818
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 1: Jackson was probably leaping up and down when they got

819
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 1: that trade off for panic. Trade shows me that they

820
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 1: don't trust Wilson um and that they aren't going to

821
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 1: plan just to run the ball off the middle NonStop.

822
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 1: I don't I don't really know. It really makes sense

823
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 1: to me um on that one. So I'll take Michael

824
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 1: Carter receiving props because he will be the past guy.

825
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:08,239
Speaker 1: Have they shown the number yet? What is it? Four

826
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 1: and a half? I believe it's too and I believe

827
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 1: it's two and a half. But really, oh yeah, that's

828
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 1: the reserve for Camaro only. I mean, I just look

829
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 1: at Robinson. He's They're not go how many players We

830
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: saw McCaffrey get traded what Thursday before the game, and

831
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 1: they had him run like ten what fifteen snaps? There's

832
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 1: no way James Robinson's playing twenty snaps. No, I can't

833
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 1: imagine that unless he learns the playbook unbelievably quick. Yes,

834
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 1: so this is gonna be the car right right? UM.

835
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 1: I'm trying to think, Uh, did the Bears use running back? No?

836
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 1: They just use fields. Yeah, well they use clear clear

837
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 1: Herbert as well. In the past game he did have

838
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 1: that awesome touchdown that was a great throw by. It's

839
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 1: got to give him props. Let's so we got a

840
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 1: lot of NFL. I am curious on the m m

841
00:41:56,719 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 1: A um is it heavily stat Bay East gambling for

842
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 1: the cop for for combat sports or what are you

843
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 1: using to become a better gambler in that um so?

844
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:08,759
Speaker 1: There are one of the companies I worked for in

845
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 1: the past, Katina owns best fight Outs dot Com. That's

846
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:14,239
Speaker 1: a really really good one because it will show you

847
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:16,239
Speaker 1: it breaks down every method of victory. And that's that's

848
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:17,800
Speaker 1: the name of the game. When you're betting m m A.

849
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 1: It's not just money lines. You're gonna want to know

850
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 1: method of victory, fight to go the distance. That's a

851
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 1: huge part of m m A betting. Um so, like

852
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:27,240
Speaker 1: like this week you have Arnold Allen who was originally

853
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 1: a plus one thirty underdog, and it tells you and

854
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 1: they'll it'll tweet right when the line opens Arnold Allen's

855
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,359
Speaker 1: plus one thirty and then you know, sharp money comes

856
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:37,319
Speaker 1: in immediately on all Alan's now favorite. Um SO, that's

857
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 1: something like it'll tell you immediately when the lines when

858
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 1: the lines open, then you can bet it um. Same

859
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 1: thing with like Sean O'Malley. Right, seanamalley this past weekend

860
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: at UFC two eighty was plus three fifty on the

861
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:48,839
Speaker 1: money line when he opened, and then he got bet

862
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:50,919
Speaker 1: down to plus one plus one nine d I believe

863
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:54,440
Speaker 1: by fight time. So that's like a huge difference here

864
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 1: and implied probability and whatever, and however you score that

865
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 1: fight doesn't really matter because Sean O'Malley ended up winning

866
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 1: ashing is a plus three fifty dog if you've got

867
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: him at the right time. UM. Basically, my my best

868
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 1: advice to anyone betting m m A is do not

869
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 1: bet um. Try to bet earlier in the week, right

870
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 1: when the line's open um. And then usually method of

871
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 1: victories will come out on Thursday on like a FanDuel

872
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,839
Speaker 1: or points bet or DraftKings. Usually method of victories come

873
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 1: out on Thursday. That's your big day for for M

874
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:25,359
Speaker 1: m A betting, So Thursday today that your method of victories. UM,

875
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,439
Speaker 1: and don't wait until Saturday on those because the juice

876
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,840
Speaker 1: gets crazy on the method of victory. Interesting now because

877
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 1: NFL apparently you know the usually the late move is

878
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 1: sometimes the best move right, you have the most information.

879
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:38,359
Speaker 1: It's right before kickoff you can get down is a

880
00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 1: lot of money. Um. But if you're saying it's the

881
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 1: opposite of m m ah huh, yeah, because the Jew

882
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 1: it's it's really about the juice for the method of

883
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 1: victory props because you can't bet under anything like in

884
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,400
Speaker 1: the in the NFL, you can bet you know, under

885
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 1: his overs there there has to be enough. They're trying

886
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 1: to get action both ways. It's not really like that

887
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 1: in m m A because if you're trying to bet

888
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 1: Arnold Allen by knockout, there's that line is just gonna

889
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 1: move and there's no corresponding under or no no corresponding

890
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 1: opposite line. It's not really gonna move any other way. Um.

891
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 1: So that's like an important piece of it. Um. You know,

892
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 1: sometimes the bet chooses you. Like that's something that I

893
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 1: always say, like, sometimes you don't choose the bet, the

894
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 1: bet is going to choose you. It's the same thing,

895
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:20,760
Speaker 1: um in the NFL with Mac Jones this past Monday,

896
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:25,360
Speaker 1: you know, Adam Schefter says on Monday Night on ESPN, Hey,

897
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 1: like Mac Jones is gonna play some It might be

898
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 1: Bailey's appy who knows, you know, bet the under on

899
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:34,919
Speaker 1: Mac Jones, Like, I didn't choose under. I had handicapped under.

900
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 1: I mean I had a lean, But sometimes the bets

901
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 1: gonna choose you. And and something that me at me

902
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 1: and some coworkers at the post talk about is you know,

903
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 1: when like Josh Jacobs was sick, um, you know, a

904
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 1: couple weeks ago, um, and he ended up taking his

905
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,240
Speaker 1: own private flight to the game. You know, Zamir White

906
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:54,799
Speaker 1: was plus score a touchdown and Josh Jacobs was sick

907
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 1: getting flown to the game, UM when it wasn't wasn't

908
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,319
Speaker 1: sure if he was gonna play. Zamir White was being

909
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:05,839
Speaker 1: hung at plus hundred for the whole day, UM Draft Kings,

910
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:09,319
Speaker 1: and I tweeted, right now, go go go like Zamir Way,

911
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 1: Zamir Way, Zamir White. And then he got that all

912
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 1: the way down to minus one ten and you know,

913
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs ended up playing. But the reality there is

914
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 1: it's more about the process and the value then because

915
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 1: eventually that's gonna you're gonna go the other way on that.

916
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:25,880
Speaker 1: When you're beating the book by se on a bet,

917
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:28,399
Speaker 1: that's when you that's everything that you need to know.

918
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 1: That's that's unbelievably significant. Um. And there are some people

919
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 1: that were tweeting me out, some crazy ones. Was like

920
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 1: Zamir White first touchdown of the day on Sunday two one,

921
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:40,839
Speaker 1: and then it was better and then that was bet

922
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:42,439
Speaker 1: all the way down to you know, ten to one.

923
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 1: By the way, did I did? I don't remember did

924
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:47,800
Speaker 1: he do anything? So Zamir White didn't end up playing,

925
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:54,239
Speaker 1: But the process is what is definitely DraftKings knew that

926
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:56,480
Speaker 1: they had made a mistake because they moved that line

927
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 1: and they moved it down to minus one ten from

928
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 1: plus twenty two hundred. Jacobs end up playing. But you

929
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 1: know that's a bet that chooses you. You take that

930
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 1: a hundred times that of a hundred for being the

931
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:09,239
Speaker 1: beating the book by that much. Yeah, congratulations on that.

932
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:13,320
Speaker 1: CONGRATU your success. Eric Richter follow him on social media.

933
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,360
Speaker 1: Let's see E E R I c h T E

934
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 1: R R R three RS three rs Richter Um. Also

935
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,319
Speaker 1: the post pis newsletter. You can see the link in

936
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 1: my Twitter bio as well. You know, when those bets

937
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 1: choose you, When those bets choose you and some information

938
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 1: comes out, I'm always trying to be on it. But

939
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 1: you know, when the insiders tell you something, listen because

940
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:36,799
Speaker 1: they'll help you with betting. All right, man, and good

941
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 1: luck with that jiu jitsu. Eric, I appreciate it and

942
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:42,879
Speaker 1: thank you very much. Fox Sports Radio has the best

943
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 1: sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our

944
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 1: shows at Fox sports Radio dot com and within the

945
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 1: I Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.

946
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 1: The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching

947
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:01,880
Speaker 1: the game. He's making money while you do it. Here's

948
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:07,839
Speaker 1: your best bat good good stuff from Eric Richter. New

949
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 1: guy on the scene, New guy. I like that, you know,

950
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:14,200
Speaker 1: you know it's it's weird. I'm I'm not fully immersed

951
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 1: in the gambling community. I don't like to be. I've

952
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 1: told you guys the story when I was one of

953
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 1: the bloggers back in the day sports blogs Gee's two

954
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 1: thousand five six seven six seven eight maybe, And you know,

955
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 1: it was like a tight knit community of a bunch

956
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:31,440
Speaker 1: of up and coming sports bloggers, and everybody started to

957
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:33,959
Speaker 1: kind of go their own way. A couple of people

958
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 1: started to pull away and separate themselves from the pack,

959
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:39,120
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of jealousy and weirdness and it's

960
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 1: just clicky losory nous, and I'm already sensing that in

961
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 1: the sports gambling community. It's like, oh, well, I'm I'm

962
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 1: a smart guy over here with these guys, and like,

963
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 1: I don't know that guy. He doesn't kiss my ass

964
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 1: or kiss the ring or follow me on Twitter. I

965
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 1: was like, I don't. I'm sorry, dude, I don't care.

966
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 1: I'm breaking down sports games here, you know, trying to

967
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:59,959
Speaker 1: make some money on the side. I'm not into making

968
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 1: and friends in the sports gambling community. Like I have

969
00:48:02,239 --> 00:48:04,319
Speaker 1: a bunch of friends, but I don't get involved in

970
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:07,160
Speaker 1: the clicky stuff. And um, I think this guy Eric

971
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 1: is on the rise, right, He's doing good and I

972
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:11,320
Speaker 1: like his work, so I wanted to bring him on

973
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:13,480
Speaker 1: the podcast. All right, let's get to what everybody's waiting for.

974
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 1: Picks four week eight. Weeks seven was good. The Lions

975
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 1: let me down, the Patriots let me down. But other

976
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 1: than that, I think I almost hit every game, and

977
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:25,879
Speaker 1: I do kind of feel good about weekend. I don't

978
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 1: feel great, and you know, coming off that Ravens win,

979
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:31,400
Speaker 1: I you know, I like the Ravens, I don't like

980
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 1: the Bucks. I'm done with this team. You know we

981
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 1: talked about him at the outset. I'm not gonna go

982
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 1: back on it. I'll quickly go through the games. Uh Denver,

983
00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:42,799
Speaker 1: Jacksonville in London. I have zero read here. I want

984
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 1: to bet Jacksonville. I think to the side Nathaniel Hackett,

985
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 1: if he loses, do they leave him in London? Just

986
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 1: from a matchup perspective, I think Jacksonville could have some

987
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,879
Speaker 1: trouble with Denver. But Denver's beat up, and you guys

988
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:56,839
Speaker 1: heard me talk about going into the bye Denver's going

989
00:48:56,840 --> 00:49:00,160
Speaker 1: into a by next week. If they're gonna fire Hackett honestly, like,

990
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:02,320
Speaker 1: this is kind of the perfect time. You lose in London,

991
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:04,719
Speaker 1: you fallted two and six, it's over. You fire them

992
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:06,240
Speaker 1: during the bye week, you have one of the interim

993
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 1: one of the coaches take over and you start a

994
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 1: new Maybe you go on a fire sale. I mean,

995
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 1: they lose this game, is Bradley Chubb gonna get dealt? Like?

996
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:17,239
Speaker 1: I can't imagine it. They dealt Khalil was it Khalil Mack? No,

997
00:49:17,560 --> 00:49:20,359
Speaker 1: it was not Khalil Mack. It was Von Miller. That's right.

998
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 1: Von Miller was opposite uh Chubb last year they dealt him,

999
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 1: and it'll be interesting. You know, you unload Bradley Chubb,

1000
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 1: It's like, is that an easy replacement? You get some picks.

1001
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 1: I don't know. I can't back Denver at all. For me,

1002
00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 1: this is Jacksonville or pass. But I don't have a

1003
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:41,360
Speaker 1: huge feel here either way. I do think there actually

1004
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 1: could be some scoring. Um so I would look at

1005
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 1: the over, but not convincingly so. UM Chicago Bears Dallas Cowboys.

1006
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna put the Cowboys in the contest. I

1007
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 1: talked about this a little with Eric. It just feels

1008
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 1: like a letdown spot for the Bears. I think the

1009
00:49:56,560 --> 00:49:59,960
Speaker 1: matchup dan Quinn will be ready. They faced running quarterback

1010
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 1: and Hurts and Daniel Jones. I think they'll be ready.

1011
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 1: I don't see how the Bears move the ball successfully. Again,

1012
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:09,440
Speaker 1: it's a week to week league, right, don't just forget

1013
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 1: about what you saw last week? Right? The Bears? Are

1014
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 1: they the team we saw the first six weeks? Are

1015
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 1: they the team to beat the Patriots? You know, the

1016
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 1: Cowboys have a pretty darn good body of work. That

1017
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:21,240
Speaker 1: defense is excellent. They did get a little lucky because

1018
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,799
Speaker 1: Jared Goff vomited all over himself last week. Let's not

1019
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 1: repeat it. A Dallas or passed for me on that one.

1020
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 1: I can't bet Saints Raiders. I want to take the Saints.

1021
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 1: I definitely want to. I think the Saints are the

1022
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:33,359
Speaker 1: side here for sure. Problem is I'm not taking them

1023
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:35,640
Speaker 1: with a lot of more, a lot of more Um

1024
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:39,480
Speaker 1: not practicing and Michael Thomas still out and Landry They're

1025
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 1: just too beat up. I can see Taysom Hill running

1026
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:45,880
Speaker 1: all over these guys. I like the Saints here, but

1027
00:50:46,160 --> 00:50:50,799
Speaker 1: it's just so tough for me to bet my money

1028
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 1: or take them in the contest on a team where

1029
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 1: I know the secondary cannot contain Davante Adams like so again,

1030
00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:00,120
Speaker 1: another one probably gonna pass. I told you guys, um,

1031
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 1: I'm on the Carolina Panthers in this one. I know

1032
00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 1: that's a tough one to swallow. J you're really telling

1033
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 1: me p J Walker that's your guy, dude. I picked

1034
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:09,160
Speaker 1: him up at one of my fantasy leagues. You know,

1035
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 1: I have my homes as quarterback, and I said, let

1036
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 1: me give p J Walker shot. Cluster injuries for the

1037
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 1: Falcons in the secondary, d J Moore could be in

1038
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:18,880
Speaker 1: play to have a big game, and the Carolina defense

1039
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:22,520
Speaker 1: is pretty good. Guys. This Atlanta run was nice. Six

1040
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:26,120
Speaker 1: straight covers to start the season. They got absolutely obliterated

1041
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 1: by the Bengals. I know the Bengals look good. I

1042
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 1: think I think Carolina. Carolina can certainly cover here. Remember

1043
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:35,719
Speaker 1: the Falcons that big run was almost exclusively as underdogs

1044
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:38,360
Speaker 1: everywhere they went to think except Seattle. They were dogs.

1045
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:41,279
Speaker 1: And now you have to not only win, but win

1046
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 1: by four to school. Oh sorry, not two scores, but

1047
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:45,319
Speaker 1: more than a field goal. I don't know that the

1048
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:47,640
Speaker 1: Falcons could do that, So I think Carolina keeps this close.

1049
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,600
Speaker 1: It feels like a field goal game either way. So

1050
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 1: I'm on Carolina. Pittsburgh and the Eagles, I'm gonna pass

1051
00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:55,880
Speaker 1: on this one. It's just a Mike Tomlin factor that

1052
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 1: scares me. I know that they covered against Miami is

1053
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 1: big underdogs. Um they covered against Tampa as big underdogs.

1054
00:52:05,440 --> 00:52:08,680
Speaker 1: I know they got blasted by Buffalo. But Mike Tomlin

1055
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:11,319
Speaker 1: in these spots where he's got to get his team

1056
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 1: all amped to play, nobody respects us. We're big underdogs.

1057
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:19,080
Speaker 1: I think, kind of on principle, it's pittsburgher pass here.

1058
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:21,400
Speaker 1: I do think the Eagles you know, coming on, I

1059
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 1: saw a stat Oh my gosh, this is incredible. And

1060
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:25,880
Speaker 1: again though I wish I could just send everybody the

1061
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:29,239
Speaker 1: Fox packet. Um, it's great the Fox research back. I've

1062
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:33,759
Speaker 1: had this undefeated teams off of a bye. I don't

1063
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:36,799
Speaker 1: know how far this goes back. Unfortunately, eighteen and one

1064
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 1: straight up, seventeen and two against the spread. Now, I'm

1065
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:44,840
Speaker 1: sure there's some four no going into the bye, and

1066
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 1: there's probably some five and six, but those are kind

1067
00:52:47,960 --> 00:52:51,319
Speaker 1: of impressive numbers. But again, we're talking about winning by

1068
00:52:51,360 --> 00:52:55,840
Speaker 1: double digits against your in state opponent, and all Pittsburgh

1069
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 1: does is cover when they shouldn't. I don't think they

1070
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:02,200
Speaker 1: have the offense to keep up. I don't particularly like

1071
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:05,719
Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett. I don't know why anybody would. I just

1072
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:09,440
Speaker 1: I think the bed here probably go Eagles first half.

1073
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:12,960
Speaker 1: They're a first half covering machine. UM. I think there's

1074
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 1: six and oh in the first half this year against

1075
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:17,960
Speaker 1: the spread. Um. But ultimately not a contest play for me.

1076
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:21,320
Speaker 1: I'm looking at Detroit in the contest. I know, Jason,

1077
00:53:21,320 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 1: you glutton for punishment two weeks in a row. I

1078
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:26,640
Speaker 1: think this front is gonna give Miami some problems. The

1079
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 1: tackles were an issue against Pittsburgh. To it looked awesome.

1080
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:33,279
Speaker 1: If your first impression, oh two is back first quarter

1081
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 1: thirty nothing, they look great. They did like nothing the

1082
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:40,560
Speaker 1: rest of the way, guys, nothing. Tackles still are an issue. Obviously,

1083
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 1: the Detroit secondary is gonna get lit up like a

1084
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:46,600
Speaker 1: Christmas tree by Wattle and Tyreek Hill. But I just

1085
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:49,800
Speaker 1: I think there could be some issues for the Miami defense.

1086
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:52,319
Speaker 1: Have you seen They're gonna be down four maybe five

1087
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 1: starters due to injury, um, safety's cornerback, linebacker, like, they

1088
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 1: are really banged up defensively, and I don't know what

1089
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 1: we'll see the Detroit at home. They've been feisty. Um,

1090
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:09,200
Speaker 1: It's it's a tough one. But at three and a half,

1091
00:54:09,280 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 1: I think for me, it's Detroit or nothing. Arizona I

1092
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 1: already talked about extensively. I'm on the Cardinals here uh

1093
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:17,799
Speaker 1: to cover and on the money line Jets Patriots. I've

1094
00:54:17,880 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 1: spent way too much time talking about this game this

1095
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:22,920
Speaker 1: week on this podcast, on other podcasts I do radio shows.

1096
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:26,080
Speaker 1: People call me on come talk gambling, um, and on

1097
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:29,239
Speaker 1: the Herd. I can't bet the Jets of fourth straight

1098
00:54:29,280 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 1: week in a row. Guys, I can't do it. I

1099
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:36,279
Speaker 1: really want to. I did it against Pittsburgh, Miami, Green

1100
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:40,239
Speaker 1: Bay and last week against Denver been very profitable. I

1101
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:41,919
Speaker 1: had some guys send me a ticket that he did

1102
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 1: like a three thousand dollar and I don't endorse three

1103
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:47,359
Speaker 1: thousand dollar teasers on the Jets and the under last

1104
00:54:47,360 --> 00:54:52,200
Speaker 1: weekend it hit well done, sir um. This is I can't.

1105
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:56,080
Speaker 1: I can't say go bet Zack Wilson against Bill Belichick here.

1106
00:54:56,719 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 1: I just can't do it, even at home. Getting to

1107
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 1: and the reason the reason it's gone up to two

1108
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:02,799
Speaker 1: and a half, Mac Jones got named the starter. This

1109
00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 1: was like one after the Patriots got their doors blown

1110
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 1: off by the Bears. And now you've got a Jets

1111
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:12,720
Speaker 1: team that is plucky. But this will be the game

1112
00:55:13,239 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 1: that says a lot about Zack Wilson. Remember against Pittsburgh,

1113
00:55:16,040 --> 00:55:18,720
Speaker 1: he had an incredible rally in the fourth quarter, two drives,

1114
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:22,920
Speaker 1: some key fourth down conversion. Since that game, he hasn't

1115
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:24,520
Speaker 1: really had to do anything, and he's played with the

1116
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:28,560
Speaker 1: lead if the Jets can somehow snagg a lead and

1117
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 1: forced mac Jonas and mac Jones into some more mistakes

1118
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:34,799
Speaker 1: because he's been a mistake prone this year. I think

1119
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:37,640
Speaker 1: the Jets have a shot. The problem is if the

1120
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:40,359
Speaker 1: Jets fall behind, I don't know where's the offense gonna

1121
00:55:40,360 --> 00:55:42,759
Speaker 1: come from. Offensive line is banged up, so I unfortunately

1122
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:45,680
Speaker 1: I can't say go fire on the Jets this week.

1123
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 1: I'll be rooting like hell for them on Sunday. I'll

1124
00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:50,160
Speaker 1: probably be a mess because if they get to six

1125
00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:53,399
Speaker 1: and two, then I think it's like, okay, the trade

1126
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:56,320
Speaker 1: uh trade deadlines coming up, we need to make another

1127
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 1: move for the offensive line. Let's see what we can do.

1128
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:01,600
Speaker 1: Because at six and two in the A see especially

1129
00:56:01,640 --> 00:56:03,960
Speaker 1: if you see Denver go down, they're done. Season over

1130
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:06,600
Speaker 1: didn't or Jackson, but one of the whoever loses that

1131
00:56:06,680 --> 00:56:10,880
Speaker 1: game's toast. And then you know there's a chance Jamaar

1132
00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:14,960
Speaker 1: Chase goes down. Now, the Bengals in trouble um Baltimore,

1133
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna They're gonna probably pick up a

1134
00:56:17,120 --> 00:56:19,719
Speaker 1: little hot streak here. I don't know what if the

1135
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 1: Lions beat the Dolphins like it's the league is so

1136
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:24,439
Speaker 1: crazy this year. I love it, especially with my Jets

1137
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 1: of five and two rooting for six and two. I

1138
00:56:26,680 --> 00:56:30,040
Speaker 1: made a decision not not one. I feel great about that.

1139
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:33,440
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be that. I have bet the Tennessee Titans

1140
00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:36,360
Speaker 1: um at two and two and a half. Sounds like

1141
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:38,160
Speaker 1: Bryan Tannehill is going to be a go. But the

1142
00:56:38,239 --> 00:56:40,359
Speaker 1: concern with these guys who are like light practice, I'm

1143
00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 1: gonna give it a go is this season maybe more

1144
00:56:43,040 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 1: than others. I've seen guys jump in there, try to

1145
00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:48,920
Speaker 1: play and then they're sitting down by halftime done. Did

1146
00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:50,839
Speaker 1: you see the Thursday game Mark Andrews tried to go?

1147
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:54,719
Speaker 1: He was done? Gus Edwards like, I mean, these guys

1148
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:56,880
Speaker 1: are trying to force their way back. Amaras st Brown

1149
00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:00,360
Speaker 1: for the Lions last week. It took one hit, a

1150
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:02,319
Speaker 1: little stagger and they're like, no, we're pulling him. Like,

1151
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:05,760
Speaker 1: so what happens if Tannehill goes down early? Now Houston

1152
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:08,919
Speaker 1: has no pass rush? But is there a scenario where

1153
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:13,359
Speaker 1: Malik I've got money on Malik Willis, Like really? Now

1154
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:17,400
Speaker 1: the key is Derrick Henry. He has absolutely run over Houston.

1155
00:57:18,440 --> 00:57:20,640
Speaker 1: I think the last three outings he's gone over two

1156
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:23,760
Speaker 1: hundred yards. I watched Josh Jacobs because remember last week

1157
00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 1: I talked about it was like kind of like Houston

1158
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 1: and seventh. They were covering for like fifty minutes deep

1159
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:30,280
Speaker 1: end of the fourth quarter. That's a four point game.

1160
00:57:31,320 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 1: That was the right side. And then, of course, you know,

1161
00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:35,840
Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs goes bonkers and then there's a pick six.

1162
00:57:36,120 --> 00:57:38,720
Speaker 1: But that's the thing. Josh Jacobs ran all over this team.

1163
00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 1: The holes were massive. Now, Lovey Smith in the division

1164
00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 1: has pulled some upsets. He did beat Jacksonville. I don't

1165
00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:48,120
Speaker 1: like Tennessee at all. If you followed me on social

1166
00:57:48,240 --> 00:57:51,680
Speaker 1: or this podcast or any of my other professional endeavors,

1167
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:53,800
Speaker 1: you know I've been very sour on the Titans. I

1168
00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 1: don't think this team is very good. I don't think

1169
00:57:55,600 --> 00:58:00,600
Speaker 1: they're particularly talented. Jeffrey Simon's their best defender, Simmons. Jeffrey Simmons,

1170
00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Jeffrey Simmons their best defensive line in miss

1171
00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:05,520
Speaker 1: practice the first couple of days this week. If he's

1172
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:08,960
Speaker 1: out and Tannehill's down, I mean, his team is nothing special.

1173
00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:12,960
Speaker 1: So I'm probably gonna be on Tennessee. Well, I am

1174
00:58:13,000 --> 00:58:15,360
Speaker 1: on them betting, but in the contest, I'm leaning towards

1175
00:58:15,400 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 1: them as my fifth pick. Probably Tennessee we'll see a

1176
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:21,440
Speaker 1: lot can happen between now and Saturday around noon Pacific,

1177
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:25,480
Speaker 1: when you gotta get the picks in Giant Seahawks reluctantly.

1178
00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:30,920
Speaker 1: I'm betting the Giants here getting three. It could be

1179
00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 1: the end of the road for the Giants. I get

1180
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:37,640
Speaker 1: all that, but I'm I'm betting coaching here. Wink Martin Dale. Um,

1181
00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:39,240
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be able to dial up some

1182
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:42,440
Speaker 1: really fun stuff and getting Gino's head. No metcalf so

1183
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:44,360
Speaker 1: I don't know. I means Marquees good, wouldn't gonna catch

1184
00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:46,960
Speaker 1: a couple more touchdowns? You know, Tyler Lockett is very good.

1185
00:58:47,000 --> 00:58:49,520
Speaker 1: But I think the Giants can hang around. We've seen

1186
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:51,920
Speaker 1: Seattle has has been run on that. It's not a

1187
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:55,439
Speaker 1: great run defense. Sa Kwan. Can you do it again? Um?

1188
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 1: Giants heading into the Bys, this team might be exhausted

1189
00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:01,160
Speaker 1: and there's a chance and they're down twenty and nothing

1190
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:03,000
Speaker 1: in the third quarter. You know, there's a lot of

1191
00:59:03,160 --> 00:59:05,640
Speaker 1: London trip now, a cross country like this is a

1192
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:11,720
Speaker 1: tough spot. Go Giants. Washington, Indie probably a stay away

1193
00:59:11,760 --> 00:59:15,840
Speaker 1: from me. If anything, I kind of dig Indie with

1194
00:59:16,000 --> 00:59:19,920
Speaker 1: the new quarterback, the new energy, you've got what is

1195
00:59:19,920 --> 00:59:23,919
Speaker 1: it they call it, um, big backup energy, a big

1196
00:59:23,920 --> 00:59:26,760
Speaker 1: backup QB energy, because this is gonna be a different

1197
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:30,040
Speaker 1: look for Washington. There's like no tape on Ellinger outside

1198
00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:33,760
Speaker 1: of the preseason, which is irrelevant. Um, they're gonna, they're gonna,

1199
00:59:33,960 --> 00:59:35,800
Speaker 1: you know, Washington's gonna win the line of scrimmage because

1200
00:59:35,800 --> 00:59:38,480
Speaker 1: the Colds. The old Colts offensive line right now ranked

1201
00:59:38,560 --> 00:59:41,760
Speaker 1: thirty second out of thirty two teams by Pro Football Focus.

1202
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:43,960
Speaker 1: So they're gonna get run over. And it's gonna be like,

1203
00:59:44,000 --> 00:59:47,040
Speaker 1: can Ellinger just make plays with his legs and pull

1204
00:59:47,080 --> 00:59:49,200
Speaker 1: a Tim Tebow act? Because that's what he did in Texas.

1205
00:59:49,240 --> 00:59:51,240
Speaker 1: If you guys remember him, he was a fun quarterback

1206
00:59:51,280 --> 00:59:53,600
Speaker 1: to root four guys, just always making place happen. He's

1207
00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:56,800
Speaker 1: running over linebackers, big dude. I think it could be

1208
00:59:56,880 --> 01:00:00,240
Speaker 1: a fun one. I don't think it's gonna be a

1209
01:00:00,280 --> 01:00:03,280
Speaker 1: big play for me because you know, Washington is starting

1210
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:06,360
Speaker 1: to catch a couple of breaks and I did lose

1211
01:00:06,400 --> 01:00:09,520
Speaker 1: with them, um in the opener against Jacksonville, and I

1212
01:00:09,520 --> 01:00:12,680
Speaker 1: remember the losses unfortunately, but I'm looking culture nothing. I'll

1213
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:15,200
Speaker 1: probably end up on the rams just because of as

1214
01:00:15,240 --> 01:00:18,000
Speaker 1: we talked about earlier, the forty nine injury report is brutal,

1215
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:22,480
Speaker 1: and this is another team going into the bye I

1216
01:00:22,520 --> 01:00:25,760
Speaker 1: do wonder, Deebo Samuel, do you force him out there

1217
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:28,840
Speaker 1: when you've got bigger fish to fry later in the

1218
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:31,400
Speaker 1: season and in the playoffs. So San Fran, you know

1219
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:34,000
Speaker 1: they have dominated the Rams. Yes, you're gonna hear that

1220
01:00:34,000 --> 01:00:35,960
Speaker 1: all the Shanahan owns Big Bay. Yes we know that.

1221
01:00:37,160 --> 01:00:41,240
Speaker 1: Is it worth forcing Debot Armstead? Some of these defenders

1222
01:00:41,280 --> 01:00:45,160
Speaker 1: like given an extra give an extra week and play

1223
01:00:45,200 --> 01:00:47,200
Speaker 1: the big play the long game, go for the big picture.

1224
01:00:47,240 --> 01:00:49,320
Speaker 1: So I think the Rams actually will will get the

1225
01:00:49,400 --> 01:00:53,040
Speaker 1: dub at so far, although it might be like crowd

1226
01:00:53,040 --> 01:00:56,640
Speaker 1: maybe sixty Niners fans and Sunday Night football, it's gonna

1227
01:00:56,640 --> 01:00:58,800
Speaker 1: be Packers or nothing. For me. I can't make a

1228
01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 1: case for the Bills. I'm sorry, Packers first half, maybe

1229
01:01:01,880 --> 01:01:04,480
Speaker 1: Packers full game, and then you know we'll talk Monday

1230
01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:07,000
Speaker 1: Night football on Monday's podcast. But I did bet the

1231
01:01:07,040 --> 01:01:09,959
Speaker 1: Browns on the Jamaar Chase News three and a half.

1232
01:01:09,960 --> 01:01:12,680
Speaker 1: It's down to three, so uh, you know, I think

1233
01:01:12,680 --> 01:01:14,840
Speaker 1: the Browns are definitely gonna be live for the outright

1234
01:01:14,840 --> 01:01:18,440
Speaker 1: win on Halloween Night. It's a long podcast. It is

1235
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:21,680
Speaker 1: a long weekend. Stay safe out there in those Halloween streets.

1236
01:01:21,760 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you Monday.