1 00:00:01,760 --> 00:00:04,240 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers game with Ryan Grdusky. Thank 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:07,480 Speaker 1: you all for being here. It is Monday, September twenty second, 3 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:11,120 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, and we have just forty three days 4 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 1: left until the twenty twenty five elections in New Jersey, 5 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. It is coming by fast. 6 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: We're actually only one hundred days left of the year 7 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:24,799 Speaker 1: of twenty twenty five until twenty twenty six, which is 8 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: insane because I feel like we're only halfway there, but 9 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: we are three quarters through the entire year. I just 10 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: got back from the West Coast from a family vacation. 11 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: I was in California over last week. I was in Carmel, 12 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 1: which was really beautiful. I was very cute town in California. 13 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: I had a family wedding for my cousin out in 14 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: San Francisco, and then we made our way down the coast. 15 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:49,840 Speaker 1: California is such a beautiful state. It is so such 16 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 1: like an amazing place with such bad politics. But I 17 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 1: bring up the trip because it was weird how many 18 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 1: people in that part of the country. Actually around San 19 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 1: Francisco just assume you're a liberal. People talk to me 20 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 1: about politics all over the place. The checkout girl at 21 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: Target brought up Obama while I was trying to buy 22 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 1: like a container of ice coffee. I was like, Melissa, 23 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: I'm just trying to have a day, like I don't 24 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:20,840 Speaker 1: need to bring up like Obama. It was so bizarre. 25 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 1: The guy in front of me at the Alamo rental 26 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: car like checkout at the airport, he wasn't working there. 27 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 1: He was just standing in front of me, and I 28 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 1: complimented his tattoo, and then he started telling me which 29 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 1: parts of Ohio were the most progressive. I was like, 30 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 1: do you think I care? Like, sir, we are on 31 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: a line at an Alamo rental car. This relationship that 32 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: we have is not going to last another five more 33 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: minutes unless there's a strike. Like why why do you 34 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: need to tell me which cities in Ohio are the 35 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 1: most supportive of transgender people playing sports? I don't give 36 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: a ship, sir. Like this was maddening. My brother went 37 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: to a restaurant and he asked the waitress which bars 38 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 1: were opened nearby, and the waitress started telling, warning, not 39 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: even telling warning him, which bar owners were Trump supporters. 40 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 1: I just think that they have this opinion that they 41 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 1: know what a Republican must look and sound like. And 42 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 1: because I wasn't toothless or had a Confederate flag tattoo 43 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:26,959 Speaker 1: on my forehead, they presumed that I must have voted 44 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: for Kamala like. It was very strange. And I also 45 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 1: ran into a longtime listener of the podcast and someone 46 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: I followed on social media named Jake. He was terrific. 47 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:37,639 Speaker 1: I want to give him a shout out really quickly. 48 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: Tell you the Italian pastries that he treated me to 49 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: were excellent. I know that no one listens to me 50 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: to hear my travel stories. I just wanted to tell 51 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: you all because just liberals are very inclined to give 52 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: you their opinion and presume that if you're not walking 53 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: around in an NRA T shirt that you must be 54 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: one of them. And I, like a dope, just pretended 55 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: like I just wanted to keep the conversation and I 56 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: give the conversation, I mean, just keep the day moving, 57 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: and I did not engage and argue. It was like, 58 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: let's just get this out of the way, and why 59 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 1: don't I just keep my vacation happening. Next time, maybe 60 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 1: I will blurt out something I don't know and before 61 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 1: I start talking about the upcoming elections. I just want 62 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 1: to mention I watched clips of Charlie Kirk's memorial service 63 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: in Arizona. I'm not exactly sure how many people showed up. 64 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 1: It seems to be the official estimates range from between 65 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: ninety five thousand to two hundred thousand based upon things 66 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 1: I've read online, which according to my research and I 67 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: did some research, this Charlie Kirks memorial is the largest 68 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 1: private citizens memorial since the death of Elvis Presley. I 69 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 1: might say private, sis, I don't mean like Reagan. I 70 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: mean like someone who didn't serve in any official capacity. 71 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 1: I think he is the last person to draw this 72 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: kind of a crowd since Elvis Presley's death, and the 73 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,839 Speaker 1: last political figure to draw this kind of Crowdsincemartin Luther 74 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 1: King Junior's assassination in nineteen sixty eight. So that's pretty 75 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: incredible when you really think about it as a generational event. 76 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 1: I didn't watch the full funeral. I watched parts of it. 77 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 1: The parts of his turning point colleagues was very moving. Erica, 78 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: his wife's speech was extremely moving. Really, I mean she 79 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 1: is very very strong for me able to give that 80 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 1: kind of a speech in this moment since losing her husband, 81 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 1: and the New York Times right up with her was 82 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: very impactful. She seems like a very profound person, and 83 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: I've been praying for her a lot. Forgiving Charlie's killer 84 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 1: and talking about him as the young man Charlie had 85 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: tried to intervene in. I think was just I don't 86 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:40,360 Speaker 1: know if I could have collected my words and if 87 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: I was in such a state as she's in. So 88 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: she was really, really, really, really just monumental, and I 89 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 1: think very highly of her. I didn't really ever hear 90 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: her speak before this, and I'm kind of blown away 91 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 1: by how talented she is as an auditor. The memorial 92 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:01,839 Speaker 1: also sparked a lot of questions about Christian revivalism in America. 93 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: I saw that being chatted about online. It was very evangelical. 94 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 1: There were a lot of pastors there, and I know 95 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: some people were Catholic and other religions, but it was 96 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: a conversational. Christian revivalism is being talked about, and I 97 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 1: think I'm going to do a podcast episode about that idea. 98 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:23,039 Speaker 1: Is it really happening? What is church attendance for young people? Really? Like? 99 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: Are people just identifying as being Christian but not actually practicing. 100 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: I'm going to look to see if I can get 101 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: a good guess to talk about it, because I'm curious 102 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 1: about I've had many conversations with people who do believe 103 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 1: in it, and I'm always a skeptic unless I see data. 104 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 1: It's just who I am. So yeah, that was my 105 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 1: only thoughts. And also one last thing, and this is 106 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 1: more of the negative side. I have to say, I've 107 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:50,159 Speaker 1: been extremely disappointed by some quote unquote right wing influencers 108 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,279 Speaker 1: and how they have acted over the last eleven days. 109 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: There are a number of people who suffer from main 110 00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 1: character syndrome where they have to make themselves the star 111 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: of the show at any given thing, and they have 112 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 1: used Charlie's death to talk about themselves. And I'm not 113 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: talking about any one person. I'm talking about multiple people 114 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 1: who have kind of put themselves in the middle of 115 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: it rather than talking more about him and his life 116 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,280 Speaker 1: and his kids and you know whatnot. And I just 117 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,039 Speaker 1: find that so disappointing and so classless. And I just 118 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:24,599 Speaker 1: wanted to say that there's not it's not one person, 119 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: it's many, many, many people. And it's been very disheartening 120 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 1: that they've done that in this time. So all right, 121 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 1: let's go to politics. It is forty three days, as 122 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:37,599 Speaker 1: I said to the election, Let's start off in the 123 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 1: Commonwealth of Virginia. Virginia's election didn't start in forty three days. Actually, 124 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:47,160 Speaker 1: Virginia's election has started a few days ago because in 125 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 1: that state they have six weeks of early voting. I 126 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,159 Speaker 1: do not believe that they should have that much early voting, 127 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:55,919 Speaker 1: but they do. So it is what it is. I'm 128 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 1: just I'm not my I don't make the rules as usual. 129 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 1: I have been a godfather four times and I have 130 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 1: been a god zero times. And is my great lot 131 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: in life that I don't make rules for other people. 132 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: So something you need to remember about Virginia is that 133 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 1: they do not register voters by party, Unlike New Jersey, 134 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: unlike New York City, unlike Pennsylvania, where there's big election 135 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: statewide elections this year, there's no way of knowing how 136 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: people identify themselves other than if they say it out loud. 137 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: But there's no registration form. You're not registered to only 138 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: be a Republican or only be a Democrat. So when 139 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 1: I compare the data that I'm about to give you, 140 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 1: I am talking about presumed identification based upon electoral data, 141 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: based upon how data companies model how they think people 142 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 1: are going to be voting, or how they are registered 143 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 1: if they could register party, and also the past performances 144 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 1: of the areas that they vote in, because a lot 145 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 1: of areas are landslide Democrat or landslide Republican counties, So 146 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: if anyone votes there, you can presume they're more than 147 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: likely voting a Democrat or Republican. Okay, let's start at 148 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 1: the early voting. Early voting is not we don't have 149 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 1: the date of the entire state, it's just a few counties. 150 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: Republicans actually showed surprisingly good early data in some strong 151 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: Trump counties. Highland, Virginia, a place that Trump one by 152 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:24,239 Speaker 1: fifty eight points, is already one hundred and twenty five 153 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: percent of their first day of early voting in twenty 154 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: twenty four. What does that mean. That means they are 155 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 1: exceeding presidential turnout in the first day of early voting. 156 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 1: The top five counties that are either exceeding or coming 157 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 1: close to their twenty twenty four totals of their first 158 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:47,359 Speaker 1: day early voting are all Republican strongholds. Highland King and Queen, Goochlin, 159 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 1: Wife and Cumberland Counties are all about eighty eight percent 160 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: to one hundred and twenty five percent of their twenty 161 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:57,839 Speaker 1: twenty four totals. That is very good for Republicans. The 162 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 1: weakest area compared to them is in compared to the 163 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four early vote, is Saint Petersburg City. It 164 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 1: is a place that Kamala Harris won by seventy three points. 165 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: They are only turning out about thirty four percent of 166 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 1: the rate they did in twenty twenty four. Falls Church City, 167 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 1: another very blue area that Kamala Harris won by sixty 168 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: two points, is having very poor turnout of thirty two 169 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: percent of their first day in twenty twenty five compare 170 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 1: their first day in twenty twenty four. Now that this 171 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that all the Republicans are showing up in 172 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 1: strongholds Buchanan, Tazewell, Galax City. They all have pretty poor 173 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 1: turnouts and those are big Republican areas. You may be asking, 174 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 1: like Ryan, I don't really care about these individual places. 175 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 1: I want to talk about the state as a whole. 176 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 1: You have to remember that there's more on the ballot 177 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: than just the governor's race. There's also the lieutenant governor's race, 178 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 1: which in Virginia, the lieutenant governor and governor are voted separately. 179 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: They're not on the same tickets, so it's possible to 180 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 1: have a Republican governor and a Democrat lieutenant governor or 181 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 1: vice versa, or a Democrat governor and a lieutenant lieutenant 182 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 1: governor governor who's Republican. There's also the attorney General's race, 183 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: where the incumbent ag is the only statewide office holder 184 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 1: to be seeking reelection he's a Republican. And there's also 185 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 1: the state legislature. Democrats hold a two seat majority in 186 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 1: both the State House and the state Senate. They're hoping 187 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: for a landslide victory this year in the governor's mansion 188 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: that could bolster up a huge majority in the state 189 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 1: Legislature and even give them possibly a veto proof majority 190 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 1: in the state House. These early vote returns are bad 191 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 1: for Democrats in some of those key swing districts in Virginia, 192 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 1: like in the House District. That's a district that Kamala 193 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 1: Harris won in the presidential election, but a Republican represents 194 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 1: in the state legislature. What we're looking at with the 195 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 1: data shows that black voters, specifically lower pensity Black voters 196 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,559 Speaker 1: who vote in presidential elections and not other elections are 197 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 1: really not showing up in big numbers. That's bad for 198 00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 1: Democrats in some very key state legislatives. Now, early in 199 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 1: person voting is just one method to how people cast 200 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 1: a BALLID, because of course they have mail in voting 201 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 1: according to political models. Now, this is what data companies 202 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: estimate will be how people registered to vote if they could. 203 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 1: In twenty four almost two hundred and twenty five thousand 204 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 1: likely Democrats have requested a mail in BALLID, eighty two 205 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 1: thousand Republicans have requested mail in BALLID, and one hundred 206 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: and two thousand likely independents have requested mail in ballads. 207 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 1: So more Democrats have requested mail in ballads than Republicans 208 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 1: and independents combine. According to my buddy Christian Hyens, I 209 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 1: think that's how you're pronouncing your last name, Christian, I'm 210 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 1: not exactly sure. He's a very smart Republican data guy 211 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: out of Virginia. He thinks about two thirds of all 212 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: the early vote in the first day have broken for Democrats, 213 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,199 Speaker 1: but a big part of that is because a big 214 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: blue counties like Fairfax have a very high raw vot data. 215 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 1: He told me, what we're seeing so far is tremendous 216 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 1: turnout at a very white liberal areas like in the 217 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 1: Richmond suburbs, while Republicans have had decent turnout in some 218 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 1: of these swing areas, and the black turnout is substantially 219 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,200 Speaker 1: lower than it needs to be for Democrats to capture 220 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 1: a super majority in the state legislature. It's very early, 221 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: though there are some decent signs of Republicans in some 222 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:25,199 Speaker 1: down ballot races. Democrats have had a good job at 223 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 1: turning out high propensity voters. Republicans have had some decent 224 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:33,080 Speaker 1: turnout when it comes to low propensity voters, but once 225 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:37,079 Speaker 1: again very very early, they will need a lot more 226 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 1: of it. To have some kind of an upset. Republicans 227 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: need to show up in much stronger numbers to counter 228 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 1: what is happening in Northern Virginia and the increased suburbs, 229 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 1: but the increased turnout rather in the Richmond suburbs. A 230 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: lot of people are commenting on the state of Lieutenant 231 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 1: Governor wins some series campaign. She's at the top of 232 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: the ticket, She's probably the most important campaign. To look 233 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: at what she has done in this election is very interesting. 234 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: She's talked a lot about trans rights and transgender people 235 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 1: playing girls' sports, transgender I guess, women playing biological women's sports. 236 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 1: It's become the focus of the campaign over other pocketbook issues. 237 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 1: And I think that her method, what she's hoping for, 238 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: is that she could turn out the Trump base, turn 239 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 1: out low propensity voters to see if they will counter 240 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 1: the high turnout. She's basically hoping for a Republican size 241 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: turnout on the Republican side, and she's using cultural issues 242 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: to get there, even if it's possibly at the expense 243 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 1: of talking about pocketbook issues that independent voters really care about. 244 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 1: We'll see if it works. She has forty three days 245 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 1: to sit there and pull a miracle because she's very 246 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,800 Speaker 1: behind in the polls. What's going on in New Jerseys, 247 00:13:54,840 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 1: you're what you're asking? That's coming up next. On Sunday, 248 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 1: the New York Times reported that the Democratic National Committee 249 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: has announced they're pouring another one point five million dollars 250 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: into the New Jersey governor's election, bringing there total they 251 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 1: have invested to three million. A group associated with the 252 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: Democratic Governor's Association has committed twenty million dollars to help 253 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 1: Mickey Cheryl, the Democratic nominee, win. That's significantly more than 254 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: the Republican Governors Association, which has only spent one point 255 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: five million on recent ads in support of Jack Chitdarelli, 256 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 1: the Republican nominee. On Tuesday, the purchase another one point 257 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: one million. Four years ago, the DNC spent less than 258 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: half as much helping Governor Murphy win re election against Chittarelli, 259 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 1: the former assemblymen who came in a very tight race 260 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: for governor in twenty twenty one. This late stage ad purchase, 261 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 1: and this is a quote, This late stage ad purchase 262 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: on behalf of the Democrats show that they are not 263 00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: confident that they are going to win the state, a 264 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 1: state where Democrats have over eight hundred and sixty thousand 265 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: more registered voters than Republicans. Republican Jack Chiarelli and Democrat 266 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 1: Mickey Scherrid debated yesterday and that clip, the clip that 267 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 1: I think people are seeing anyway, is going viral. It's 268 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 1: earned several million views on Twitter and Instagram that I 269 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 1: have seen, and it is a comeback from Jack Citarelli 270 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: over accusations. That not accusations, it's most the Democrat Mickey Cheryl. 271 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 1: She sat there and said, I'm going to make sure 272 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: that you can't hold off again. I want you guys 273 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 1: to hear that clip. Now. It doesn't matter because I'm 274 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 1: going to make sure that he doesn't get to serve 275 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 1: again when I went for governor in November. 276 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:45,440 Speaker 2: Of this year. There's another big difference between her public service. 277 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 2: In my public service, it actually cost me money the 278 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 2: time I put in and took away from my company. 279 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 2: In the seven years that she's been in Congress, she's 280 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 2: tripled her net worth. There's another big difference between the 281 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 2: two of us. Okay, she broke the law. 282 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 3: She had to pay fines for violating federal law on 283 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 3: stock trades and stock reporting. And the New York Times 284 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 3: reports that while you're sitting on the House Armed Services Committee, 285 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 3: you were trading defense stocks. 286 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,840 Speaker 1: That was probably the best comeback guy I ever heard 287 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 1: from a politician since Trump told Hillary that she would 288 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 1: be in jail. I mean, because what it does is 289 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: not only defines Mickey Cheryl as being an insider who 290 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 1: is corrupt and saying that Jack has been lost money 291 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: while serving in office, he is a very wealthy man. 292 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 1: But it is sat there and said that she is 293 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: heart of the blob in Washington. That is politics as 294 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 1: usual that voters hate, that independent voters hate. Sheitda really 295 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 1: had a reasonably strong debate performance. It was one awkward 296 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 1: moment where he tried to fist bump a young kid 297 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 1: and the young kid wouldn't fist bump him back. But 298 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 1: besides that, it was a very strong debate performance, and 299 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 1: debate performances don't usually matter for local offices unless a 300 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 1: Canada has a blowout moment where they say something that 301 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: hurts them, say something that their face. Jack Chiarelli's comeback 302 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 1: was extremely good because it defined the Democrat in a 303 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 1: way you want to ahead of the election so close 304 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,360 Speaker 1: where people are actually paying more attention. The other interesting part, 305 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:12,879 Speaker 1: and I don't have the clip, but it's not important 306 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,159 Speaker 1: because it lasted for just a second, was that the 307 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:19,680 Speaker 1: Democrat Mickey Cheryl, refused to commit to not raising taxes. 308 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:24,439 Speaker 1: That's if you don't want two clips ahead of an election, 309 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 1: that's where you don't want them. Should a rally got 310 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 1: more good news, however, Right before the debate, an internal 311 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 1: poll showed him leading the Democrat by one point. The 312 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 1: poll was conducted by National Research. Now this is an 313 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 1: internal poll, right, so his own campaign was doing the polls. 314 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 1: That means you should treat it with a little grain 315 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 1: of salt because we don't know if it was an 316 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 1: informed poll or it was the poll before the information. 317 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 1: What an informed poll is for those who don't know, 318 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:57,880 Speaker 1: is that pollsters who are polling for a campaign will 319 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,080 Speaker 1: say to a voter, who are you likely to vote? 320 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 1: You know, John or Mary, and say John has fifty 321 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: and Mary has fifty. Then they'll read and John is 322 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 1: doing the poll. Then they'll read a bunch of statements. 323 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 1: Mary is prefers cats over dogs. Mary voted to raise taxes, 324 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 1: you know, I don't know, supports abortion on demand. Now 325 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 1: who are you more likely to vote for? And then 326 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 1: like Jack will have fifty five and Mary, we'll have 327 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: four to five, and you'll see, oh, okay, well this 328 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 1: is the strongest issue to attack them in. This is 329 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,160 Speaker 1: why the polls are being done internally, so we don't 330 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 1: know if it's in an informed pole or not an 331 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 1: informed pole. There's not a ton of information behind this 332 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 1: because it was internal in the campaign. I will say 333 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,880 Speaker 1: this though, the one reason not even reporting this information 334 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 1: because usually I would not report an internal poll to 335 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 1: you guys, is that it was conducted by National Research 336 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 1: and they were the most accurate pollster in the twenty 337 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,919 Speaker 1: twenty one New Jersey governor's race. They predicted Murphy Wooin 338 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,879 Speaker 1: by three and Murphy won by three. Usually polster with 339 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 1: high level credibility does not want to leak out a 340 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 1: pole that is compos completely going to destroy their reputation. 341 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 1: They don't really love that idea, so especially coming off 342 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 1: of a big successful year as they did in twenty 343 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,920 Speaker 1: twenty one. This is the first poll that has ever 344 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 1: showed Chitterrelly leading. Most poles have been losing between six 345 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 1: and eight points, which is what Trump lost in twenty 346 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 1: twenty four against Khma He lost by six points. So 347 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 1: it's an outlier, but it is a very strong polster 348 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:29,320 Speaker 1: with a very good reputation. There's a series of a 349 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 1: plus pollsters, people that are highly accredited in the industry, 350 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:34,680 Speaker 1: who have announced since that poll came out that they're 351 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 1: going to go back in the field re examine the 352 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 1: governor's race. We'll have more polling that comes out about that. 353 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 1: This poll has Chitarelly leading among independence by twenty one points. 354 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:49,320 Speaker 1: That seems like a lot to me personally. That's one 355 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 1: thing I'm like, Eh, poll, is this poll accurate? Is 356 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 1: this an informed pole? Twenty one points is a lot. 357 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: There are two point three million independents in the state 358 00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: of New Jersey, so they need everything. As I said before, 359 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 1: Democrats have an eight hundred and sixty one thousand voter 360 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 1: advantage over Republicans, but Republicans have done a very good 361 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:13,160 Speaker 1: job at shipping away at Democrats lead. Since twenty twenty one, 362 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:17,880 Speaker 1: there are two hundred and twenty two thousand more registered 363 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 1: Republicans than there were the last time that Chittarelli ran 364 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 1: for governor. This time and in that same time period, 365 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:29,680 Speaker 1: there's been over two hundred thousand new Republicans. There's only 366 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 1: been five thousand new Democrats. So what Cheryl is hoping 367 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:38,960 Speaker 1: to do in this election to galvanize these Democrats that's 368 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 1: who have a big lead, but it is a smaller 369 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:43,720 Speaker 1: lead than it used to be, and try to win 370 00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:46,520 Speaker 1: over independent support. And you can see it in her 371 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: debate performance. You can see in the adset she's running 372 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,879 Speaker 1: is she's trying to nationalize this election. She's trying to 373 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 1: make it about Donald Trump. This is the same thing 374 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 1: that Governor Murphy did in twenty twenty one against Hitarelli. 375 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 1: In two twenty one, Murphy's campaigns about Chitdarelli talked about 376 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 1: January sixth. This time, Cheryl's comments and ads talk a 377 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 1: lot about the big beautiful bill about Medicaid cuts, and 378 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:16,200 Speaker 1: she's trying to make Shitarelly own what the Republican Congress 379 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 1: has done, which is fairly unpopular, especially in the state 380 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 1: of New Jersey, especially among independents, and trying to galvanize 381 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: Democrats to show up and vote. Chitarelly is making the 382 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 1: election more about New Jersey. He's saying, I've served in 383 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: every level of state office New Jersey, from the Assembly 384 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,920 Speaker 1: to the local government. This would be like the next thing, 385 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 1: and I know this state like the back of my hand. 386 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:44,160 Speaker 1: Reducing energy costs, reducing cost of living, reducing taxes, that's 387 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 1: how we're going to get businesses to stay in New Jersey. 388 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 1: That's how we're going to get New Jersey thriving again. 389 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,159 Speaker 1: He's even brought the fact that New Jersey went from 390 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:55,640 Speaker 1: number two to number twelve and education ratings and talking 391 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,919 Speaker 1: about how to make New Jersey's education more dynamic. It 392 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 1: is a much more or diverse way of speaking for 393 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: a candidate in the same way that when some seers 394 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 1: over in Virginia is trying to nationalize this election to 395 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 1: make it more about the Republican issues as a whole, 396 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 1: the trans issue, especially in the state of Virginia, Chittarelli 397 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,399 Speaker 1: is trying to do the exact opposite in New Jersey. 398 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 1: It's very very weird, actually, Cheryl Mickey. Cheryl is running 399 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 1: a campaign that is more like whin some Seers than 400 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,960 Speaker 1: Jack Chitarelli is, and Jack Darella is running a campaign 401 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 1: that is much more deeply focused on the state of 402 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 1: New Jersey and what the inter politics are in the state. 403 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:40,879 Speaker 1: It's very interesting. It looks like it's going to be 404 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: a closer election than Virginia. The polls showing it being closer. 405 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,479 Speaker 1: Jactually performed very strongly last time. Early voting in New 406 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 1: Jersey begins October twenty fifth. I'm going to do a 407 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 1: deep dive in episode in New Jersey. Do not worry. 408 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,119 Speaker 1: I think next Monday, I'm hoping to do Virginia and 409 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 1: then I'll go to New Jersey. There's all so the 410 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:04,439 Speaker 1: State Supreme Court races coming up in Pennsylvania. This is 411 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 1: incredibly important and no one, I promise your most election 412 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 1: podcasts are talking about this. It is important because the 413 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania Supreme Court is overwhelmingly Democrat. And what did the 414 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:20,640 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania Supreme Court decide that has national implications for us 415 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one, they decided over redistricting. They decided 416 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 1: to make certain districts lean more Democrat. Going into twenty 417 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 1: twenty eight, this will be the last election that will 418 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 1: really decide the state of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Going 419 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 1: into twenty twenty, twenty thirty, twenty thirty, we go through 420 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,640 Speaker 1: redistricting again in Pennsylvania is likely to lose one more 421 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 1: congressional district. The Supreme Court is going to be very 422 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 1: influential and deciding how many Democratic seats are drawn in 423 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,080 Speaker 1: the state. It is something to be mindful of and 424 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 1: to pay attention to. Pennsylvania has a very large mail 425 00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:01,880 Speaker 1: in voting apparatus. Republicans are doing a much much better 426 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,639 Speaker 1: job at asking for mail in votering than they used to. 427 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 1: Democrats absolute leading it like they always will, but Republicans 428 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 1: are actually requesting mail in ballads. I'm at a significantly 429 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,680 Speaker 1: higher rate than they usually do. I'm going to bring 430 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,080 Speaker 1: you the exact numbers on Pennsylvania probably next Monday when 431 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 1: I go into Virginia. I just want you guys to 432 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,399 Speaker 1: know about it. It's something to pay attention to. No 433 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,400 Speaker 1: one else is talking about it. Up next is Ask 434 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 1: Me Anything. Welcome back to the Ask Me Anything segment. 435 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,639 Speaker 1: If you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment, 436 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: email me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com. That's 437 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:41,680 Speaker 1: Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast plural Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. 438 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:43,960 Speaker 1: Love getting your emails. I read every one of them. 439 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: This comes from my old buddy, Peter Fumbap. Peter emails 440 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 1: me all the time. Try to get to your questions 441 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 1: as often as possible, Peter, but I do enjoy them. 442 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 1: He mentions someone I had on my podcast about the 443 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 1: young Man from Angola about being well informed and doing debate, 444 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 1: and he asked who could be a successor to Charlie 445 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,399 Speaker 1: Kirk at TPUSA. Well, obviously, Erica Kirk is going to 446 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 1: take over as the CEO of Turning Point and she 447 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 1: seems extremely eloquent. I don't really know her aside from 448 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,760 Speaker 1: her public announcements that she's had since Charlie's death, so 449 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 1: I don't know her debate signing skills, or even if 450 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,879 Speaker 1: she would want to do a public debate like Charlie 451 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 1: used to, given that that's how her husband was assassinated. 452 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,000 Speaker 1: I could see how she would not want to. But 453 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 1: Charlie was really unique in the sense that he was 454 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,919 Speaker 1: a politico. He had a political mind, and he was 455 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:40,560 Speaker 1: able to really find new rising talent in the GOP, 456 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 1: get behind them early, support them, and put money and 457 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:49,159 Speaker 1: effort in a ground game together in important states, not 458 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 1: only for a tenant's running for office, but also for 459 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 1: the presidential campaign. That was one half of Charlie's talent, 460 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 1: and the other half was the half that you that 461 00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 1: if you're a listener, has used. Saw his ability to debate, 462 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: which is a unique talent. His ability to host a 463 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:07,000 Speaker 1: two hour radio show is a unique talent. His ability 464 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,440 Speaker 1: to do Fox News clips, which are very I did 465 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 1: was on Laurer Ingram. You're only on for three minutes. 466 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: You could get all your talking points out in a 467 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: very short period of time. That's a different talent, and 468 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,120 Speaker 1: Charlie was extremely good at all those different things. Who 469 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,399 Speaker 1: could replace him to do all of those things? I 470 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 1: don't know. I don't think that there's anyone who could 471 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:26,719 Speaker 1: do everything that Charlie did, because he was very talented 472 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 1: in a number of places, and he made information palatable 473 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:32,720 Speaker 1: better than I certainly do. One of my aunts was like, 474 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 1: I don't know what you're ever saying sometimes because she's 475 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,600 Speaker 1: not into politics like my listeners are. But that's okay. 476 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,520 Speaker 1: I have a very niche I have a very uniche opinion, 477 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,840 Speaker 1: a very niche listening audience people who are a highly informed, 478 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 1: highly engaged, and want to be highly informed. It's not 479 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 1: for just people who have a passing fancy I think 480 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 1: with politics. But that's okay, you know, teach their own. 481 00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:54,679 Speaker 1: I think that Charlie made things very palpable for the 482 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 1: average person, for young people. Who could replace him all 483 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,679 Speaker 1: those things, I don't know. I imagine someone's going to take 484 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:04,240 Speaker 1: over each individual role that he did. He was really 485 00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: really uniquely talented, and as I've said this before, I 486 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 1: wrote this down on my substack, that he over time 487 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 1: got better, which is rare. A lot of people start 488 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 1: out strong and kind of just sputter across the time, 489 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 1: and he was constantly becoming smarter, becoming more capable running 490 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 1: tv USA is a better organization, And yeah, I think 491 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 1: that that's really, really, really says a lot about him 492 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 1: as a man, and to do it all at thirty 493 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 1: one years old is kind of jaw dropping. But yeah, 494 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,159 Speaker 1: rust in peace, Charlie Again. I don't know, it's just 495 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 1: so sad. Every time I think about it's so so 496 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,480 Speaker 1: incredibly sad. But who can replace him Erica as CEO 497 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,920 Speaker 1: and I don't know who replace him at everything because 498 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:47,480 Speaker 1: he was really once in a generation kind of talent 499 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:48,919 Speaker 1: for a lot of this stuff. I don't have an 500 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:50,440 Speaker 1: answer for you. I usually try to get an answer 501 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,720 Speaker 1: for all my listeners, but I don't have an answer 502 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,239 Speaker 1: for that one. Anyway, thank you for listening. I'll be 503 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,400 Speaker 1: back on Thursday. We'll talk then. Please like and subscribe 504 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 1: on the iHeartRadio app, apple Potcast wherever you get your podcasts, 505 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,360 Speaker 1: and I'll speak to you guys on Thursday.