1 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple card playing Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:21,440 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 2: Say the action here is not in a stock market today. 7 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 2: It's in bitcoin up seven point eight four hundred, almost 8 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 2: forty five hundred dollars higher. For now it's sixty one 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 2: thousand and ninety. What is going on there? I have 10 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 2: no idea, but I know somebody who does. That's Mike mcloan. 11 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 2: He's a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins 12 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 2: is on Zoom from our Miami BI outpost down there 13 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,840 Speaker 2: in South Beach. Mike, you've been on this thing since 14 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 2: day one, consistent from day one. You know, fixed supply, 15 00:00:56,000 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 2: presumably ever increasing use cases which will drive demand and 16 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 2: that's all you need. So is that still the case here? 17 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 3: It's certainly the case. So I appreciate you saying consistent, 18 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 3: because I haven't been that consistent. I was quite concerned 19 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 3: that it was getting a little too speculatively excessive around 20 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 3: the launch all of the ETFs in the beginning of 21 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 3: the year, but it's still the case. In April, we'll 22 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 3: have The having is when you cut the supply right 23 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 3: now you can only mind nine hundred bit coins a day, 24 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 3: it'll drop to four hundred and fifty. That's every four years, 25 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 3: so it'll cut the supply. And we have obviously from 26 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 3: ETF flows just in the last week this week a 27 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 3: loan one billion of in flows since ETF's have been launched, 28 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 3: a total of about seven billion. Yeah, Eric Belchun has 29 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 3: been all but that's it, and I'm glad you mentioned 30 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,119 Speaker 3: so there's a key. But the thing that really struck 31 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 3: me is that the ETF conference, the big one they 32 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 3: have in Miami every year. 33 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 2: So that wasn't the one in Cleveland in February. This 34 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 2: is one in Miami. If okay, right, no hurry to 35 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 2: go to Cleveland February. 36 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 3: But so Eric was moderated, a panel in the room 37 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 3: was packed, So I went to another presentation room at 38 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 3: the same time where actually bigger and no one was 39 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 3: no one really cared what they were presenting on. So everybody, 40 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 3: all these professional money managers were really looking at watching 41 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 3: bitcoin and want to learn about bitcoin. 42 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: ETFs. 43 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 4: Wait, can you just break down this whole having thing. 44 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 4: I don't understand how that's okay to do that. 45 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 3: You got, Hello, it's it's in the code. I have 46 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:21,679 Speaker 3: a son who's a programmer, I asked. Thembuddy says, no, 47 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 3: it's the code dead. It's just by by by code. 48 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 3: Every four years the supply gets cut in half. So 49 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 3: right now all the miners in the world will only 50 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 3: be going to creating nine hundred coins a day, and 51 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 3: then as of having it cut the four fifties, so 52 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 3: it doesn't have that high price cure that you really 53 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 3: see effect most commodities and why most commodities are in 54 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,959 Speaker 3: bear markets with exception of goal, but also on the 55 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:47,079 Speaker 3: supply side, it's just the way it set up. And 56 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 3: as our colleague Zeke false roade out wrote, number go up. Well, 57 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 3: that's bitcoin is designed to go up. But now it's 58 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 3: becoming an alternative currency on a global basis, and the 59 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:58,519 Speaker 3: US is jumping in that frame. We also a key 60 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 3: thing you have to look at it from a macroeconomic 61 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 3: standpoint is China's kind of pushing back. Remember China's going 62 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 3: for gold, the largest gold buyer in the world, and 63 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 3: they were associated with this war and the US is 64 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 3: just to prove ETFs and bitcoins. So you see where 65 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 3: the world's going towards intangible assets and bitcoins the most 66 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 3: significant in cryptos. 67 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 2: So how do we let me go back to something 68 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 2: really fundamental, How do we value this thing? How do 69 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,919 Speaker 2: we decide whether it's expensive or not? Is there any 70 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 2: fundamental analysis here or is it just the it's a 71 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 2: commodity and supplying demand, it'll go up and then you. 72 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 4: Should buy it at some point. Yes, well I do. 73 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 3: I do appreciate that pole Typically coming from an equity 74 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 3: kind of person, that's a question often getting commodities. The 75 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 3: one way you can value it is by watching the 76 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 3: hash rate. That's just the amount of transactions and and 77 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 3: and I guess you could say computer power in the 78 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 3: space kind of looking at the voltage and things, and 79 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 3: it's it's exponential, still rising rapidly. But one thing also 80 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 3: like the tilt over to when people push back on 81 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 3: this particular crypto, I mean, rememb there's thirty thousand wannabes. 82 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 3: Is I like to say, when you go on any 83 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 3: of the major crypto sites and you click on volume, 84 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 3: the number one traded crypto is the dollar via tokens 85 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 3: and then one and that is Tether basically trades double 86 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 3: the volume of bitcoins, So I'd say bitcoin's the leading 87 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:19,559 Speaker 3: one is like gold in the space. But when people 88 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 3: push back to the technology, I'm saying, it's really the 89 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 3: whole world's gone for the space, and the base layer 90 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 3: they've gone for is the dollar, not any other currency. 91 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 4: That's actually quite interesting. What about ether though, for example, 92 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 4: Like you mentioned tether, but ether I've read like ethere 93 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 4: ETFs maybe coming too, and I'm wondering what the effect 94 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 4: of that would be on the thesis that you have. 95 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 3: Well, to answer your question, Alex, to me, it's a 96 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 3: matter of time get ETFs to track a broad index 97 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 3: in the space. So Bloomberg Intaligence first proposed the Bloomberg 98 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 3: Galaxy Crypto index in twenty seventeen and we launched that 99 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 3: in twenty eighteen, so that's what almost six years now. 100 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:58,040 Speaker 3: It's just a matter of time. But ethereum ether ETFs 101 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:00,279 Speaker 3: will come. It's a question of when the key that 102 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 3: theorem has it, do you do have a yield in ethereum? 103 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 3: And that's where most equity people come in and say, oh, well, 104 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 3: I can do that and then cost. So it's part 105 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 3: of it's the technology e theorem is really kind of 106 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 3: making possible. What's happening in the space is NFTs might 107 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 3: be speculative, but also coaching token's tokenization of most assets. 108 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 3: As I mentioned, the dollar is the most widely traded crypto. 109 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 2: All right, so let's let's back away. We got to 110 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 2: let cryptos going higher. I get it in the commodity 111 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 2: space that you look at, Mike, you look at everything, 112 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 2: and we'll get the pork bellies later. That's that's my 113 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,159 Speaker 2: air of expertise. What do you like right now? What 114 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 2: are you talking to clients about these days? 115 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: Gold? 116 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 3: I have to say, because that's what that's what really 117 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 3: brought me into cryptos in the first place. And gold 118 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 3: is the most enduring, outperforming commodity over time, particularly in 119 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 3: times when you have maybe i'd say, in the back 120 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 3: end of FED rate hikes, which we're heading towards easing 121 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 3: and with China potentially declining. So right now gold is 122 00:05:57,640 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 3: up about ten percent on a one year basis, and 123 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 3: broad commodity and this they're down about ten percent. I 124 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 3: think that's going to accelerate. The key thing I think 125 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,239 Speaker 3: that's been saying about gold forever now is you can't 126 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 3: really hold gold anymore without some bitcoin in space and 127 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 3: the mess you're willing to take a risk that the 128 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 3: world is not going to continue advancing towards a digitalization. 129 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 3: So I see gold going higher. And here's a key 130 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 3: take is I think crude oil at seventy eight dollars 131 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 3: a barrel WTI is more likely head towards fifty. And 132 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,479 Speaker 3: there's a good indication for that, and that's natural gas. 133 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 3: US natural gas, the number one measure for heat, electricity 134 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 3: and fertilizer, has dropped at least a monthly a couple 135 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 3: of weeks ago. It dropped to the lowest price when 136 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,599 Speaker 3: it was first traded in futures in nineteen ninety. 137 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 1: Wow. 138 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,039 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's pretty bad. But I mean there's reasons for 139 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,280 Speaker 4: that in terms of demand here in the US, which 140 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 4: is different than say the broader look for oil. So 141 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 4: why do you think we're going to go to fifty? 142 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 4: I mean, there's no way that OPEC plus will be. 143 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 5: Down with that. 144 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 3: That's the problem. They don't control oil anymore, which just 145 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 3: look at the facts. The excess of US and Canadian fuel, 146 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 3: liquid fuel and crude oil supply over demand now is 147 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 3: about six million barrels a day. And guess what OPEC's 148 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 3: spare capacity is about six million barrels a day. So 149 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 3: they're fighting a losing battle. But the key fact is 150 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 3: if Crudell catches up to industrial metals, it kept us 151 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 3: up to grains and corn and virtually all the other commodities, 152 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 3: it will go to fifty dollars a barrel. So I 153 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 3: look at the premium, the geopolitical premium. Right now, Crudell 154 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 3: is about twenty bucks. 155 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 4: Twenty buck really yeah, that's really interesting because the thesis 156 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 4: out there, like the common thought on the street, is 157 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 4: that there is no geopotical growth premium, or it's there, 158 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 4: it's like a couple bucks. Because you've had the backsup 159 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 4: of US supply that's kind of helped offset that. And 160 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 4: because Russia is still doing their thing despite sanctions. 161 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 3: Yes, I do appreciate that. And then it's oftentimes they 162 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 3: ignore the other commodities. So number one natural gas, number 163 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 3: two corn, number three copper, You look at all of them, 164 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 3: they're all in pretty severe beer markets. And the laggard 165 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 3: in this commodity bear market is crude oil at the moment. 166 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 3: So I look at it to me, I just published. 167 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 3: I think it's on a cliff's edge. And obviously I've 168 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 3: been a bit early. If I was a trader, I 169 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 3: would have been stopped out. But now the trend is 170 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 3: clearly lower and you have to ask yourself what keeps 171 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 3: it elevated? And I say, you have to have sustained 172 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 3: deal political risk. But every day we turn around that 173 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 3: these prices right are above the US average cost of production, 174 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 3: which is around fifty five dollars a barrel. You just 175 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 3: see more supplying coming on and demand is not really 176 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 3: picking up. And here's a key fact that I can 177 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 3: mentioned is diesel demand in this country is stagnated to 178 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 3: about the same level as it was in twenty seventeen. 179 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 3: That's virtually never happened without a recession, unlet a gas 180 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 3: to manage declining paperboard demand is declining. So certainly from 181 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 3: the largest economy standpoint, we have a problem. And then 182 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 3: you look over at China, the number one importer. They 183 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 3: are completely dependent on fiscal monetary stimulus for economic buoyancy 184 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 3: at the moment. So the outlook for me for crude oils, 185 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 3: I'll put phil kill on it. This year. Initially I 186 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 3: said forty about two years ago, and I'm going to 187 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 3: at least give it this year if it's going to 188 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 3: make it. 189 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 2: There, Phil and killing nice. 190 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 4: Yeah. 191 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 2: So when you get stopped out of a trade, did 192 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 2: you put it right back on Mike back in the day. 193 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 6: Well, I used to have hair and you can see 194 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 6: on the YouTube, but no, it's it all depends a 195 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,199 Speaker 6: lot of times it was with my own money, with clients, 196 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 6: or with institutional money. 197 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 3: But that was the key thing that really struck me 198 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 3: is I was way early. But now that's the advantage 199 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 3: I have is being an X trader. I can see 200 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:12,559 Speaker 3: where I would have been stopped out, and as an analyst, 201 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 3: I can point out the macro. But I think the 202 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 3: key thing that people really missed last two years was 203 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 3: the significant macro economic stimulus of this unlimited friendship between 204 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 3: President Z and President Putin. It's tilted the whole world 205 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 3: backwards versus against China, and China was an emoral source 206 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,679 Speaker 3: at demand poll for comminities. And then you also had 207 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 3: this incentive of high prices because of a war which 208 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 3: really kicked in that elasticee. A supplying demand which has 209 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 3: been US has been leading that way in almost all 210 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 3: commodities I mean yeah, so I think it just accelerated 211 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 3: those forces. 212 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 4: Hey, Mike, we gotta leave it there. 213 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,199 Speaker 2: And we're gonna do port bellies next time. Don't worry 214 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 2: about it. 215 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 4: I'm all up for pork bellies, man. We can definitely 216 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 4: hit that for sure. Cattle chicken anyway. Mikelgon on Boomberg Intelligence, 217 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 4: Senior Commodity Strategists, you're listening. 218 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:01,559 Speaker 1: To the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast just live weekdays at ten 219 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 1: am Eastern on Apple car Play and Android Otto with 220 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live on Amazon 221 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa 222 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 1: play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 223 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 4: The S and P is just down one tenth and 224 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 4: one percent. I mean, we can say that investors are conscious, 225 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 4: we can say the stocks are lower, but volume is light. 226 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 4: It's hard to get excited about any kind of quote 227 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 4: unquote selloup. And my real question is like, what's it 228 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 4: going to take for the markets to actually consistently go down? 229 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 4: An Barry is founder and managing partner over at thread Needle. 230 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 4: She joins us, right now, what's it going to take 231 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:38,840 Speaker 4: in for markets to really go down? Here? 232 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 7: Alex, I think it's going to take one of two things. 233 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 7: At the macro levels. 234 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 8: Why they're going to take really strong inflation and then 235 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 8: for even more resetting by the market of what they 236 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 8: think the FED is going to do in terms of 237 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 8: continuing to push out rate cuts or is that the 238 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 8: macro level or when it comes looking at fundamentals, we 239 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:59,079 Speaker 8: need to see a flew of earnings. So we sort 240 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 8: of through the season now, but looking ahead for another 241 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 8: three months that basically continues to sort of reset expectations 242 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 8: to be a bit more realistic around some of these 243 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 8: big productivity boosts and AI boosts that people have been sitting. 244 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 7: We've seen that. 245 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:14,679 Speaker 8: Break a little bit already in places like Palowel to networks, 246 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 8: for example. But I think we need some more expectation 247 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:19,559 Speaker 8: resetting and it just hasn't happened as any season I 248 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:20,679 Speaker 8: think some people thought it might. 249 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,679 Speaker 2: So that kind of brings me to valuation here and 250 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,320 Speaker 2: should we have some valuation concerns in this market because 251 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 2: we've seen a big move off of the October lows, 252 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 2: yet I'm not sure we saw a commentsar horizon earnings 253 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 2: per share of this market. How do you think about valuation? 254 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 8: I think I've long been saying and Alex I've had 255 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 8: this conversation that this market feels extremely overvalued on a 256 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 8: couple of different dimensions. If you take a look at 257 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 8: the equity of RESC premium, it's absolutly low relative to 258 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:50,199 Speaker 8: some of the macro risk factors out there, and if 259 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,559 Speaker 8: you look back historically, so that's number one. Number two, 260 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 8: we're looking at p ratios p to growth ratios that 261 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 8: are completely unprecedented across the entire industry and then within sectors, 262 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 8: particularly within tech. So I've long been of the view 263 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 8: that we were in over valued territory. I think the 264 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 8: question is what is that capitalist going to be to 265 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:10,319 Speaker 8: get people to focus on. 266 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 7: That again, rather than the sort of vague euphoria. 267 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:17,959 Speaker 4: HSBC had the most reluctant call change I'm beginning I've 268 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 4: ever seen. They've had a tactical underweight stands for a while, 269 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 4: and they finally said that sentiment and positioning have been 270 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 4: stretched and remain elevated, but it isn't enough to prompt 271 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 4: a significant correction and risk assets at the same time, 272 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 4: and we have I don't I mean Goldman, I'm trying 273 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 4: to think Barclays that ubs all kind of chasing the 274 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 4: rally and upgrading their price forecasts for the S and 275 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 4: P for this year. I mean, what does that tell you? 276 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:46,560 Speaker 8: I mean there's a little bit of function alex of 277 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 8: upgrading of certain of the really big stocks that take 278 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 8: up such a big chunk of the S and P 279 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 8: and of the NASDAC. So when you're getting big companies 280 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 8: like Nvidio getting rerated upwards, when you're getting a lot 281 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 8: of the big tech companies rerated up with that sort 282 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 8: of lifting the entire And that's where I get really nervous. 283 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 8: Back to this point, I think tech has been such 284 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,200 Speaker 8: a massive driver of uplift. I do think the sector 285 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 8: is over valued and that's spilling over into much broader 286 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 8: market sort of bubble charity, and so I'm nervous about it. 287 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 2: So what does that mean for kind of when you 288 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 2: talk to your clients here, is it kind of get 289 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 2: out of tech those names are lightening up on some 290 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:24,679 Speaker 2: of those tech names, try to sign find some value 291 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 2: in other parts of the market, or like hold. 292 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 7: Well, it's a little bit of a hybrid. 293 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:33,679 Speaker 8: So it's really trying to look the secular tailwinds I 294 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:35,079 Speaker 8: think are going to be there in the long term. 295 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 7: And I'll give you an example cybersecurities that they. 296 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 8: Throw out their pallele outer networks I have invested, for example, 297 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 8: this is on the private side of as you clients 298 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 8: in a private company that is in the of deep 299 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 8: fake detection. So if you think about whether it's Taylor 300 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 8: Swift Images or whether it's President Biden's voice being deep faked, 301 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,200 Speaker 8: this is an area in cybersecurity that's really picking up 302 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 8: in terms of public attention. That's the kind of space 303 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 8: that is going to be I think why for consolidation, 304 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,559 Speaker 8: and players like the Palo Alto Networks and others I 305 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:05,079 Speaker 8: think are going to be the acquirers of these companies. 306 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 8: So this is one where I say, look, you've got 307 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 8: to look for industries of sexuler tael Insider being one 308 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 8: of them. 309 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,679 Speaker 7: Look for breakpoints. In this case, I did buy that stop. 310 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 8: When I saw it go down with a ninety billion 311 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 8: dollars set off, just because the CEO had dared to say, 312 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 8: we need a real strategy around pricing, and it's going 313 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 8: to be a little bit less, a little bit more aggressive, 314 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 8: a little bit less casually positive than someone you thought. 315 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 8: So those are the breakpoints I like CEOs that are 316 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 8: coming out in these kinds of sectors saying, look, here's reality. 317 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 8: It's really tough to execute, but here's a plan. This 318 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 8: is how we're going to do it. And when we 319 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 8: see cell offs in those names, that's why I'm looking 320 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 8: to go back in. 321 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 4: What about what do you do with the big guys 322 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 4: like say Google that's gotten hit hard and also Apple, 323 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 4: which were making a bit a lot of hay about 324 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 4: technical levels. The chart doesn't look that great when you're 325 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 4: looking at maybe a breakdown of some of the big 326 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 4: tech names. Do you go on and buy I do. 327 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 7: Alex And it really depends on why the breakdown has happened. 328 00:14:57,560 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 8: I thought that I think a bit more forgiveness when 329 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 8: it to big companies that at the end of the day, 330 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 8: our cash flow machines have real market share and big 331 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 8: growing markets. When those companies come out and say, look, 332 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 8: we've made a mistake or we're going to shut your 333 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 8: product line, as Apple has done when it comes to 334 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 8: ev for example, or when we see GEM and I 335 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 8: get rolled out too quickly and we see therefore a 336 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 8: missteff put Google and therefore Alphabet now saying look, we're 337 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 8: really going to have to invest behind slowing this down 338 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 8: and fixing it. I've got patience for that, Alex because 339 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 8: I think those are still fundamentally good businesses. Where again, 340 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 8: we're seeing these companies experiments. 341 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 7: Sometimes they'll get it wrong. 342 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 8: I'd like to make sure they're not shredding too much 343 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 8: capital in the process, and they're being disciplined in their allocation. 344 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 8: But at the end of the day, you can't take 345 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 8: away the fact these companies aren't going anywhere. They will 346 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 8: redirect resources to more profitable outlets, and I've got patients 347 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 8: for that. I see those are buying opportunities of them. 348 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 8: The rest of the market's running in those. 349 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 2: Moments talking about making a pivot or having some patients 350 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 2: for a business line. How about Apple kind of saying 351 00:15:56,800 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 2: back and away from the electric vehicle business, autonomous vehicle business. 352 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 2: That's a pretty big move, would it? Would you make 353 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 2: of that? 354 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 7: It is a big move. 355 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 8: But here's what I say about Apple again, to compare 356 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 8: it specifically and deliberately to another tech names, and that's Amazon. 357 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 7: If you take a look at Amazon, the amount of. 358 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 8: Forgiveness that there has been over the over the decade 359 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 8: for that company to experiment throw a bunch of money 360 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 8: into big new ideas, whether it's in grocery or whether 361 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 8: it's in healthcare, and if it fails, Amazon shuts down 362 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 8: relatively quickly those experiments. The market thinks that's great, and 363 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 8: they say this is called to its culture and this 364 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 8: is why it's such an agile. 365 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:36,320 Speaker 7: Nimble company and will continue to win in the long run. 366 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 8: For some reason, that attitude has faded when it comes 367 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 8: to the Apples of the world. I have forgiveness for 368 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 8: that because Apple tried. It's still got a huge cash 369 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 8: flow machine in its core iPhone eye. 370 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 7: Products, and if easy it's not going to generate return. 371 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 7: I'd much rather they. 372 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 8: Shut up, shut up shop in that front, and go 373 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 8: refocus and reinvest behind more profitable lines. So I think 374 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 8: it's a good thing when companies come out and say 375 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 8: didn't work, to move. 376 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 4: On right and thanks lot really appreciate it. Always fun 377 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 4: to get your perspective. And Barry founder and managing partner 378 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 4: at Thread Needle, I kind of say when I interviewed CEOs, 379 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 4: I feel the same way, like when you deliver information 380 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:13,920 Speaker 4: to the CEO and they're like, no, no, it's great, 381 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:16,160 Speaker 4: Like this is a great buying opportunity for our stock. 382 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,680 Speaker 4: Everything's amazing. You're like, okay, yea, we know, we know 383 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 4: what you're doing. Guys, we can see through that. 384 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 2: And I saw, yeah, Apple just kind of coming right out. Well, 385 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 2: I guess they didn't say it's Mark Drman re reporting. Yeah, 386 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 2: they haven't had a statement that I was correct on 387 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 2: that earlier today, But basically Mark German Bloomberg News reporting 388 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 2: that you know, we're going to back away from electric 389 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 2: vehicle business. A lot of employees assigned to it, some 390 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,640 Speaker 2: of them will be re allocated to their AI efforts, 391 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 2: some probably losing the jobs. But again it's a big, 392 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:43,400 Speaker 2: big pivot there. 393 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:45,680 Speaker 4: I mean, it also makes sense like if you want 394 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 4: to be a services business at the end of the day, 395 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 4: how does a car kind of fit into that. 396 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 397 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play and 398 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 1: then Broud Otto with the Bloomberg Pistons. What listen on 399 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 400 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 401 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 4: David Welch is our Detroit bureau chief. He joins us 402 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 4: now on Zoom from Detroit. Hey David, when we talked 403 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 4: about Apple pushing back from the EV market, Is there 404 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 4: a China connection there, that China's flooding the market with 405 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 4: their own cheap evs, every other car maker's having a 406 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 4: hard time with it. Is there something to that? 407 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 9: Very very little, honestly, I mean. 408 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:34,159 Speaker 3: I think, sorry, thanks, No, it's in a way in 409 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 3: the sense that the EV market's tough. 410 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 9: It's very competitive in China, even Tesla's losing share there, 411 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,159 Speaker 9: and it's even tougher here, and then there's a lot 412 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 9: of competition in Europe. But look, really, you take the 413 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:50,160 Speaker 9: airplane up about twenty thousand feet on Apple's decision, their 414 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:54,160 Speaker 9: margins are what thirty or forty percent, and gross margins 415 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 9: for Tesla and General motors about the same these days 416 00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,200 Speaker 9: at about sixteen percent, And you have to spend billions 417 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 9: of dollars to make this vehicle. Why would they do that? 418 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 9: So I think that's really what this is about. And 419 00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:09,160 Speaker 9: it's you know, they're also looking at they were looking 420 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,119 Speaker 9: at a an electric vehicle that was going to be 421 00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 9: about one hundred thousand dollars, So this was gonna be 422 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 9: a luxury Apple EV and we're you know, we see Rivian, 423 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:21,920 Speaker 9: we see Lucid. Yeah, you know, that's rarefied air that's 424 00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 9: a tough sell. There's just they're just don't that many 425 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,919 Speaker 9: people who can afford one hundred thousand dollars vehicle. And 426 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,399 Speaker 9: then one other thing I'd like to bring up with 427 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,880 Speaker 9: Apple is they talked about Apple TV for a long 428 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,239 Speaker 9: time and everyone thought we were going to have this 429 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 9: Apple TV hanging on the wall. But making television just 430 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 9: allows you high capital the bow marching business kind of 431 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 9: like automobiles. And then they gave us a box with content. 432 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 9: So you know, Apple supplies car plator automakers. You know, 433 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 9: they may still have an auto play with some kind 434 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,399 Speaker 9: of content sort of thing in their vehicles. But I 435 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 9: think they looked at the capital side of this and 436 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 9: and said, you know, that's not what they do. They 437 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 9: create cool stuff and kind track someone else to make it. 438 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 9: The business just never made a lot of sense. 439 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 2: But hey, David, what's the feeling in Detroit these days 440 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 2: as to kind of how this ev thing is going 441 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 2: to evolve going forward? I mean, it seems to have 442 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,960 Speaker 2: hit kind of a lull here in terms of the enthusiasm, 443 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 2: and I guess a lot of folks are trying to 444 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 2: get a sense of is it because the costs is 445 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 2: just too high. Is it because people just don't like evs? 446 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,200 Speaker 2: Is it because there's not enough choice, there's not enough 447 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 2: charging stations. What's the feeling in Detroit is how this 448 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:30,159 Speaker 2: thing will evolve? 449 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 9: It's all of that, But I would say especially choice and. 450 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 1: Price. 451 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 9: I mean, look, there's one EV on the US market 452 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 9: that sells for less than forty thousand dollars. Now it's 453 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 9: a Nissan Lead. It's a compact hatchback, which Americans hate, 454 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 9: that gets about two hundred miles of range, which nobody thinks, 455 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,119 Speaker 9: isn't it, And so everything else is much more expensive 456 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 9: than that, and for most Americans that doesn't cut it, 457 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 9: particularly when the charging network is bad. So all these 458 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 9: things are sort of related. But you know, I think 459 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 9: the carmakers are now really cautiously watching this, and in 460 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 9: the vehicle to watch in the next year is General 461 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,679 Speaker 9: Motors is going to sell an electric Chevy Equinox. So 462 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:21,120 Speaker 9: the Equinox is a small crossover suv. It's that's kind 463 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,440 Speaker 9: of the new family car because no one buys Sidanzen. 464 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 9: And they're going to sell that EV for thirty five 465 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 9: thousand dollars and it'll go three hundred and twenty miles 466 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,280 Speaker 9: on a charge, which is pretty good, and that will 467 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 9: kind of tell us if the mass market is ready 468 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 9: to go electric, because right now, a lot of the 469 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 9: people who buy evs, they're not just early adopters and 470 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 9: rich people. They are early adopters and rich people with 471 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 9: three or four other cars in the garage. So if 472 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:44,719 Speaker 9: they need to drive on a long road trip, they 473 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,480 Speaker 9: pull the land rover out, gass it up, and go. 474 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:54,120 Speaker 9: And so can the industry sell evs to people who 475 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 9: have one car in their garage? 476 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 7: And we'll see. 477 00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 9: So that's going to tell us a lot about what's 478 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,959 Speaker 9: going to happen with this market and how flat the 479 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,360 Speaker 9: middle of this S curve is in order to get 480 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:05,200 Speaker 9: to the next way. 481 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 4: Those are the people that can qualify for the one 482 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 4: it in that survey, right, so some of us may 483 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 4: fall short. David, I'm also wondering just the mood, I mean, 484 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 4: to Paul's point, the mood in Detroit, Like, how do 485 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 4: the workers feel about all of this? Right? I mean, 486 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 4: we know the shift to evs eventually, when you're just 487 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 4: making EV's, you need less workers, et cetera. And I'm 488 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,359 Speaker 4: just wondering, kind of, yeah, like how do they feel 489 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 4: right now? 490 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 10: So? 491 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 9: I'm not totally convinced by the way that it's going 492 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,879 Speaker 9: to need fewer workers. I think over a long period 493 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,399 Speaker 9: of time maybe, but that's a different issue. That the 494 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 9: union worker does think that, and they also think that 495 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 9: the engine and transmission jobs will be gone and batteries 496 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 9: will come in from someplace else and they won't be 497 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:50,400 Speaker 9: the ones making them. 498 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 5: So there is a lot. 499 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,520 Speaker 9: Of fear, and I think they're breathing some kind of 500 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 9: a sigh of relief that maybe a lot of these 501 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 9: workers are a bit older, they'll be retired before this 502 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,920 Speaker 9: is a real issue. And so I think if you're 503 00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,679 Speaker 9: the union, you're looking at this transition as being longer 504 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,880 Speaker 9: and slower than everybody thought probably two years ago, and 505 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,919 Speaker 9: so to be more manageable. You know that the you know, 506 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 9: the attrition can be just done by retirements and people 507 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 9: want to lose their jobs and be left with nothing. 508 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 2: It'll just But it is the commitment from the car 509 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 2: companies still there, David, because I could make an argument 510 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 2: I think half of this country will never go electric 511 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,240 Speaker 2: for reasons other than economics, other than powertrain. 512 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 4: Was it like, look or what politics? 513 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 2: I'm not going green? 514 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 9: You know that's interesting I've sort of thought for a 515 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 9: long time that Elon Musk has gone conservative for two reasons. One, 516 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 9: he's been fighting with the government, so he hates regulators. 517 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 9: Democrats get pinned with regulation, so he went conservative. I 518 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,719 Speaker 9: think the other is that guy's a brilliant marketer. It's 519 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 9: the most underrated thing about Elon Musk. And he knows 520 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 9: that EV's have been politicized. He knows those conservatives don't 521 00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 9: like them, and so I think he went conservative because 522 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 9: maybe they'll buy evs from their guy. Right, he's the 523 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,159 Speaker 9: guy on Twitter letting them say whatever they want. And 524 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 9: I've always sort of thought, with no evidence, that maybe 525 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:14,920 Speaker 9: that's what he's doing. 526 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:15,439 Speaker 7: But look, I. 527 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,199 Speaker 9: I eventually everyone's going to go EV because I'll just 528 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 9: be the powertrain available. Question is how long does it 529 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:25,239 Speaker 9: take to get there? And I do think it's going 530 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 9: to take a very long time. Price is one thing, 531 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 9: and the Parker dwellers and all of that. I mean, 532 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,439 Speaker 9: there's just practical reasons why not. But look, you know, 533 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 9: in the eighties, cell phones were the sides of a suitcase. 534 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,359 Speaker 9: They were very expensive, the services obuseeing. A lot of 535 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:39,919 Speaker 9: people said I'll never get a cell phone and now 536 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:43,160 Speaker 9: everyone's eighty seven percent of the market has a smartphone 537 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,639 Speaker 9: glued to their head or in their hands, So you know, 538 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 9: never is a very long time. I think it will happen, 539 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 9: but it's not twenty thirty five or twenty thirty like 540 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 9: Mercedes and General Motors tell this. It's like twenty forty five. 541 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 2: Okay, because I'm you know, I think there's a reasonable 542 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 2: argument to be made in the boardrooms, like what if 543 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,119 Speaker 2: this isn't the mass market we thought it was, And 544 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,920 Speaker 2: I don't know, everything else has been politicized, why not that? 545 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:09,920 Speaker 4: But then at some point you're just gonna have regulations 546 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:11,920 Speaker 4: that's going to demand it, so you don't have a choice, 547 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:13,840 Speaker 4: which is kind of where we were, and now some 548 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 4: of that's being rolled back a little bit. So I 549 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 4: think it's it's the whole idea that you're in an 550 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,360 Speaker 4: industry that is in a structural shift, but there's all 551 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,280 Speaker 4: these short term headwinds, like how do you manage a 552 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 4: business like that? That must be very difficult. 553 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 2: Yep, that's why. 554 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,680 Speaker 4: Then again, I don't buy a car from Mary Barra, right, No, 555 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 4: I mean, I guess only Tesla. You'd buy it for 556 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:32,160 Speaker 4: ELM maybe. 557 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know. All right, David, thanks so much 558 00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,679 Speaker 2: for joining us. David Welch, Detroit bureau chief for Bloomberg News. 559 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,359 Speaker 2: He's in Detroit. I mean he's got his you know, 560 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 2: feet to the ground, ear to the ground, that all 561 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 2: that kind of stuff for what's happening in the auto business. 562 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,280 Speaker 2: But it's tough. I mean, it's tough to to make 563 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,640 Speaker 2: the case to invest in GM or Ford Stock is tough. 564 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,960 Speaker 2: I know, these industries that are in fundamental transition, and 565 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 2: I equate the auto industry to the entertainment industry fundamental. 566 00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:58,120 Speaker 4: Change and the energy industry. 567 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, exactly right, exact fundament change to their 568 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,119 Speaker 2: core business model, and you want me to invest in 569 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 2: the equity of this thing. 570 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:06,359 Speaker 4: I mean, I think the difference is that there's a 571 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,159 Speaker 4: manufacturing element, whether you're in media or whether you're in 572 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:12,440 Speaker 4: a car company, versus energy where it's the underlying hydrocarbon. 573 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:16,000 Speaker 4: It's different. So they can actually make money. Well, this 574 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:17,920 Speaker 4: is all happening, which is a novel idea. 575 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:23,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 576 00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:27,399 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 577 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 578 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,480 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, just 579 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,160 Speaker 1: say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 580 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,120 Speaker 4: We also got that data that was pretty solid, right, 581 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,760 Speaker 4: you get a second quarter of the second read on 582 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,360 Speaker 4: the fourth quarter GDP coming a little lighter than estimated, 583 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,160 Speaker 4: but really that was an inventory issue. The personal consumption 584 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,120 Speaker 4: part added about two points to that at three percent. 585 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,919 Speaker 4: Again super solid. It's a big head scratcher. It is 586 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,159 Speaker 4: joining us now, Heaving in a trades managing partner and 587 00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 4: director of economic policy at Beta partners Man. There's a 588 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,120 Speaker 4: lot to get through. There's this, there's politics. But if 589 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,440 Speaker 4: I'm Biden's campaign, do I like these numbers? 590 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,400 Speaker 5: I mean, there's a double edged sword here. On one hand, 591 00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 5: you want the Fed to cut interest. 592 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 11: Rates, not that they're encouraging them to or in any 593 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 11: way manipulating it, but the perceived benefit of the Fed 594 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:24,639 Speaker 11: cutting interest rates is something that any administration running for 595 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,160 Speaker 11: reelection would like to see going into an election year. 596 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 11: But simultaneously, strong GDP growth, which is what we're forecasting 597 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 11: and expecting and is consensus at this point and even 598 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,119 Speaker 11: being revised upwards by NAB and groups like it, is 599 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,639 Speaker 11: also a strong indicator. So I have to say, I 600 00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:43,359 Speaker 11: don't know that there's losing data for Biden in the 601 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,920 Speaker 11: upcoming economic information that we're about to be getting out. 602 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 11: What you really want to see, and I think is 603 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:53,400 Speaker 11: a really interesting dynamic, is actual inflation come down, particularly 604 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 11: on household. 605 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:55,959 Speaker 5: Goods and groceries. 606 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 11: There is some a study that I conducted a few 607 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:03,119 Speaker 11: weeks back about the the gap between women's perception of 608 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:07,560 Speaker 11: the US economy and men's perception, and in a number 609 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 11: of cases it's you know, sixty seventy eighty, even ninety 610 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 11: three percent negative views amongst on the economy from Republican women. 611 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,400 Speaker 11: And it's an outsized portion of women versus men who 612 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,360 Speaker 11: believe the economy is struggling right now, and. 613 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:22,680 Speaker 5: That's mostly because of inflation. 614 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,040 Speaker 11: So I think the most important data for the Biden 615 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,440 Speaker 11: campaign writ large is really just inflation on household goods 616 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:29,119 Speaker 11: and groceries. 617 00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 2: So on that end, I guess, Henriette, Tomorrow's going to 618 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 2: be an important day here with the PC deflator data. 619 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:37,440 Speaker 2: What do you expect me to see here? 620 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:44,120 Speaker 11: I mean, we've seen economic expectations and forecasts for consumer 621 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,240 Speaker 11: sentiment come down. You have to think that there's some 622 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,160 Speaker 11: inflation related components to that, but it could also just 623 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 11: be that the four month rise that we've seen is 624 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 11: you know, just sort of plateauing or something along those lines. 625 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 11: So I don't think inflation is going to be cured 626 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,720 Speaker 11: by any PC is still going to be a problem. 627 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,480 Speaker 11: I think it's just really slow going and a struggle 628 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:07,280 Speaker 11: for the Fed, which is why the market is repricing 629 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 11: so aggressively on whether there will be interest freecuts. One 630 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,280 Speaker 11: of the conversations that I used to have a lot 631 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,160 Speaker 11: was how many cuts are we going to get, you know, 632 00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 11: between March and June, And now it's more question of 633 00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 11: are they actually going to cut in March or will 634 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,560 Speaker 11: it come in June? And I think that signals that 635 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 11: there's still a long way to go on inflation. 636 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 4: Right, like no longer how many, but sort of when 637 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:29,840 Speaker 4: it actually starts, it does feel like maybe some of 638 00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:34,440 Speaker 4: the repricing has finally worked its way through. Henrietta tie 639 00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 4: this into the Michigan primaries yesterday. What did we learn? 640 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 4: And I say that because it did feel like anti 641 00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 4: Israel pro Palestinian group there really sort of put the 642 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 4: screws to the Biden campaign, right, And I wonder how 643 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,720 Speaker 4: much that's going to start affecting the campaign versus say, 644 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:55,960 Speaker 4: how much I'm paying for eggs at the grocery store. 645 00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:01,160 Speaker 11: Well, I obviously Michigan is a critic state. There's two 646 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:04,400 Speaker 11: hundred to three hundred thousand Muslim or Arab voters in 647 00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 11: that state. Biden was able to win the state by 648 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 11: one hundred and fifty thousand last time around, so he 649 00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:14,880 Speaker 11: does have a cushion. But you know, if female voters, 650 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 11: if youth voters, if black voters are migrating to Trump, 651 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 11: which is what the polling is suggesting but not necessarily 652 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 11: representative of primary turnout data, then you have a problem 653 00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,680 Speaker 11: when every vote counts. You know, in twenty sixteen, the 654 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:32,320 Speaker 11: threshold was just a couple ten or so thousand voters. 655 00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,200 Speaker 5: So you really want to work for everyone. 656 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:39,880 Speaker 11: But I think there's a misunderstanding of what happened last 657 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:44,440 Speaker 11: night because a lot of the takeaways were sort of 658 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,520 Speaker 11: gelled in the public consciousness a little early in the night. 659 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:51,320 Speaker 11: It takes fifteen percent for the undeclared vote to send 660 00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,520 Speaker 11: a delegate to the DNC this summer, and they're only 661 00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 11: at thirteen percent. 662 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 5: As of this morning. 663 00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,800 Speaker 11: So this is really the last hurrah in terms of 664 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:04,520 Speaker 11: national attention that Michigan and these voters specifically are going 665 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,920 Speaker 11: to have in a way that I think will carry 666 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 11: any of the weight that we've seen for the Biden 667 00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 11: team to be worried about for the last you know, 668 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:12,840 Speaker 11: three or four weeks now that they're not. 669 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 5: Worried about the Israel Kaza situation in general. 670 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,680 Speaker 11: They ask for a massive funding request, including humanitarian aid, 671 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,080 Speaker 11: all the way back in October, and Congress has yet 672 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 11: to authorize that, which makes it difficult for Biden to 673 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:28,000 Speaker 11: get any messages across. But in general, I think the 674 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:32,320 Speaker 11: undeclared vote was not the political earthquake that a lot 675 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,600 Speaker 11: of folks in that community wanted it to be. And 676 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:37,920 Speaker 11: I think that there should be a lot of breathing 677 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 11: room for the Biden administration understanding that they will not 678 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:43,880 Speaker 11: have to worry about a delegate from this contingency at 679 00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:45,240 Speaker 11: the DNC this summer. 680 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:49,840 Speaker 2: All right, So staying on the political front, here are 681 00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 2: good friends in Congress. So I guess they're getting back 682 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 2: to work today or tomorrow, who knows. Let's put that 683 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 2: in quotes, yam, Yes, what are they going to do 684 00:31:56,880 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 2: here about keeping this government open? Should the markets be concerned. 685 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 2: Learned that we could have an issue here, but either 686 00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 2: this Friday or next Friday. 687 00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 11: Next Friday would be a big issue, and it comes 688 00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 11: at a very precarious time for the Biden administration specifically. 689 00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:12,640 Speaker 11: But here's the state of play as I understand it. 690 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 11: We're going to get another short term cr It's just 691 00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 11: a matter of how long. This Friday's deadline only covers 692 00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 11: about twenty five percent of US federal spending. 693 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 5: It is a three. 694 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 11: Hundred and twenty one billion dollars if I'm not mistaken. 695 00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,000 Speaker 11: Next Friday is the big cahuna at one point two trillion. 696 00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 5: So I do think that there's. 697 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,080 Speaker 11: Going to be a deal to avert a shutdown this week. 698 00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:36,200 Speaker 11: That's contrary to my earlier view. What happened is the 699 00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 11: House changed its schedule. They decided to actually come back 700 00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,480 Speaker 11: into town, as you point out, instead of being gone 701 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 11: all week, they are coming back today so that they 702 00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:45,720 Speaker 11: will be in a position to at least. 703 00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 5: Take some votes. 704 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 11: But you can tell from Speaker Johnson's reticence to even 705 00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 11: release text that this is going to get slammed and 706 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:53,680 Speaker 11: Daylight is going to kill it. 707 00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:55,120 Speaker 5: If he releases it too early. 708 00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 11: So we need to see text, you know, no earlier 709 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 11: than tonight, and a vote would come on Friday, but 710 00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:05,959 Speaker 11: the potential for a short team CR is effectively guaranteed. 711 00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,320 Speaker 11: The real lynchpin here is that, for the first time 712 00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:13,720 Speaker 11: in two cycles, the Senate Republican conference is really hoping 713 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:18,680 Speaker 11: not to lose their races through unforced errors or through 714 00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:21,720 Speaker 11: endorsing MAGA candidates. This is their last best chance in 715 00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 11: a while, and they've got eight Democratic seats in purple 716 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:33,320 Speaker 11: states that are highly at risk. On that list is Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana. Certainly, so, 717 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,280 Speaker 11: the Senate Republicans are effectively trying to pull rank on 718 00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,400 Speaker 11: House Republicans here and say, yo, let me get a 719 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 11: majority in Congress and in the US Senate. Don't shut 720 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 11: it down. Don't ruin our chances by making us all 721 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,800 Speaker 11: look dysfunctional. Let's keep the government open. I on the prize, 722 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:52,720 Speaker 11: focus on the White House, focus on immigration, and move 723 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:56,880 Speaker 11: on from these, you know, sort of futile efforts to 724 00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:01,120 Speaker 11: cut federal spending from very popular programs like so. 725 00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:02,760 Speaker 5: I think that is very helpful. 726 00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,360 Speaker 11: I would like to see Minority Leader McConnell have a 727 00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:09,720 Speaker 11: little bit more sway over House Republicans and particularly Speaker Johnson. 728 00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:11,520 Speaker 11: I think we will get there and we'll avoid a 729 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 11: shutdown on Friday, and then optimistically, we'll avoid a bigger 730 00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:19,840 Speaker 11: one next Friday. The one caveat or the several caveats 731 00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:23,719 Speaker 11: are one. It's super Tuesday, next Tuesday. The President will 732 00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:25,520 Speaker 11: deliver the State of the Union address on Thursday, and 733 00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:27,200 Speaker 11: then that big shutdown would come on Friday. 734 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,600 Speaker 5: So there's a lot of moving parts here to be watching. 735 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:31,160 Speaker 4: Oh I love It's like, I don't want to be 736 00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,000 Speaker 4: the most dysfunctional person in my friting. I like that's 737 00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,319 Speaker 4: the bar for some Hey, Henritta, thanks a lot, Henry 738 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,760 Speaker 4: to tre Is, managing partner and director of Economic Policy 739 00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,160 Speaker 4: at Veda Partners. But I also wonder we didn't get 740 00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 4: a chance to ask about Nikki Haley. But we know 741 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:46,239 Speaker 4: the nomination is not going to happen, but she keeps 742 00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,520 Speaker 4: making the case like thirty to forty percent of the 743 00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,600 Speaker 4: voters in this state don't want Trump, and I wonder 744 00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:55,040 Speaker 4: how that eventually evolves over the next few months. 745 00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:56,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, and a lot of folks we talked to in 746 00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 2: the political front say that she may stay in this 747 00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,120 Speaker 2: race longer, if for no other reason than to get 748 00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,240 Speaker 2: to the convention and just kind of be there. 749 00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,399 Speaker 4: And just sit there and see what happens. Yeah, I've 750 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,360 Speaker 4: heard that too. I wonder what that winds up looking 751 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,319 Speaker 4: like and if the polling winds up showing up. 752 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:14,760 Speaker 2: The conventions this year are actually going to be very interesting, 753 00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:16,680 Speaker 2: I think, I mean, I think both of them are 754 00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,560 Speaker 2: going to be very interesting, and maybe not for the incumbents, 755 00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 2: but there's gonna be a lot of rhetoric out there, 756 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:23,520 Speaker 2: so we'll pay attention to them this summer. 757 00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:29,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 758 00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:33,240 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 759 00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business Act. You can also listen 760 00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,240 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 761 00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,360 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 762 00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,360 Speaker 4: Let's drill deeper now into the bond market here. We 763 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,480 Speaker 4: had a ton of supply coming on this week in 764 00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:51,920 Speaker 4: the corporate bond market. We had record February issuance for 765 00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:56,360 Speaker 4: the month. We had seven two fives for the treasury market, 766 00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:58,640 Speaker 4: all doing really well. I want to bring in Jerry Kudziel, 767 00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:02,880 Speaker 4: He's a group managing director in General's generalist portfolio manager 768 00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,200 Speaker 4: at t c W. Let's kind of get into fixed 769 00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:08,719 Speaker 4: income here. What is the pain trade headed into tomorrow's 770 00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:10,440 Speaker 4: PCE in the bond market? 771 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,480 Speaker 10: Well, good afternoon, Thanks for having me. I appreciate it. 772 00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:19,439 Speaker 10: It's a it's a it's a great question. I think 773 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:24,560 Speaker 10: the reality is the the market has set itself up 774 00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:28,879 Speaker 10: for complacency kind of across the board. What we would 775 00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:31,000 Speaker 10: say is the pain trade is probably for a little 776 00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:35,320 Speaker 10: bit of a of a of a higher print on inflation, 777 00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:39,520 Speaker 10: although what you know, the the reality is that there's 778 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,160 Speaker 10: not a lot of room for error price into the 779 00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:42,279 Speaker 10: markets at all either way. 780 00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:47,440 Speaker 2: So it feels like, is it safe to say, though, Jerry, 781 00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:50,120 Speaker 2: that from your perspective that we've seen peak inflation? Can 782 00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:51,239 Speaker 2: we at least say that. 783 00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:57,840 Speaker 10: I think we would say we've definitely seen piece whether 784 00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 10: whether or not inflation ticks back up a little bit 785 00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:06,080 Speaker 10: or or we see we're both a little bit stronger. 786 00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:09,080 Speaker 10: I think ultimately, when you look at the numbers of 787 00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:12,360 Speaker 10: the three month or six month annualized the Feds already 788 00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 10: hit their target. You know, we're already at we're already 789 00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,640 Speaker 10: at two percent inflation numbers. And I think the data 790 00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:22,840 Speaker 10: that we're seeing the micro up time internally here is 791 00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:26,320 Speaker 10: that macro views and formed by the micro you know, 792 00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:31,719 Speaker 10: laural of anecdote is data a little bit. We're seeing 793 00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,520 Speaker 10: a lot of things under the surface that lead us 794 00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:37,640 Speaker 10: to believe that the economy is not as healthy and 795 00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 10: that inflation is not is not going to remain as 796 00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,320 Speaker 10: strong as so, yes, we've already seen peak inflation. 797 00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:46,239 Speaker 4: In our view, does that mean that you like steepeners 798 00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 4: even though if you were in steepeners the last six 799 00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:49,760 Speaker 4: months you got you got hurt. 800 00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:56,359 Speaker 10: Indeed, I think the calling the timing of a FED cut, 801 00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,360 Speaker 10: and I think we all want to everyone wants to 802 00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:01,120 Speaker 10: know everyone's opinion of when is the FED going to 803 00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:03,839 Speaker 10: get moving on interest rate cuts? Are they going to cut? 804 00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:06,040 Speaker 10: How are they going to roll it back? I think 805 00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:13,520 Speaker 10: our view is inflation is peaked, real comfortable adding duration, uh, 806 00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:16,440 Speaker 10: and we think the curve is going to and will normalize, 807 00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:20,719 Speaker 10: and so we we do we do like steepeners. I 808 00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:24,000 Speaker 10: think the reality is this has been you know, obviously 809 00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:26,879 Speaker 10: the market's pushed pushed just out it. But our view 810 00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,560 Speaker 10: is that's a little bit reflexive. There's a there's a 811 00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:33,440 Speaker 10: lot of complacency in the market. You can see that 812 00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,480 Speaker 10: in VIX, you can see that in S and P, 813 00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:39,239 Speaker 10: you can see that in individual equities. You can see 814 00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,840 Speaker 10: that in the corporate bond, in disease UH, in the 815 00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:45,120 Speaker 10: face of record issue with alex as you mentioned, we're 816 00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:48,080 Speaker 10: staring at just about all time tights or you know, 817 00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:52,440 Speaker 10: definitely post GFC tights, and the and the reality is 818 00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:55,120 Speaker 10: is not, in our opinion, not a lot of not 819 00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:56,560 Speaker 10: a lot of room for error. But yeah, I think 820 00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:59,760 Speaker 10: the short answer to the question is we we like steepeners, 821 00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:01,120 Speaker 10: and we like and we like duration. 822 00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:04,439 Speaker 2: How about corporate credit, how do you feel about going 823 00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:06,760 Speaker 2: out on the risk premium a little bit? 824 00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:11,239 Speaker 10: Well, I think let's look at it this way. We'd 825 00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:16,040 Speaker 10: say you're supposed to be high grading your credit portfolios 826 00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:20,480 Speaker 10: right now. When you think about the investment grade credit 827 00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:25,360 Speaker 10: diet of eighty seven over treasuries, the high yield index 828 00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:27,719 Speaker 10: trades at three oh seven. But when you start stripping 829 00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:30,920 Speaker 10: out distressed the high yield index, if you take out 830 00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:33,280 Speaker 10: the four percent of the high old index that's distressed, 831 00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,880 Speaker 10: the high yield index trades that have spread at two forty. 832 00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:41,120 Speaker 10: If you pull that back historically, that's a really difficult 833 00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:44,040 Speaker 10: time to invest in high yield, and it's a really 834 00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,520 Speaker 10: difficult time to go out the risk spectrum. We've seen 835 00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:50,520 Speaker 10: spread compression, whether that's between credit quality, between high yield 836 00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:54,399 Speaker 10: and investment grade, and so we would not recommend going 837 00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:57,000 Speaker 10: out this picture. The risk spectrum was thing's supposed to 838 00:39:57,000 --> 00:40:01,279 Speaker 10: be high grading portfolios, being moving up in quality, and 839 00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:04,920 Speaker 10: we don't. We would not recommend moving out the risk 840 00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:08,120 Speaker 10: spectrum right now. We've we've been highgrading our portfolios across 841 00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:08,439 Speaker 10: the board. 842 00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:12,400 Speaker 4: Where do you think you could be wrong? Is it 843 00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:15,480 Speaker 4: going to be the when the FED cuts? 844 00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:16,360 Speaker 8: Is it? 845 00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:20,120 Speaker 4: Is it going to be a consistently stronger economy? And 846 00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:21,960 Speaker 4: I was talking to someone earlier today. They talk very 847 00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:25,040 Speaker 4: much about a two speed economy. On the one hand, 848 00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:28,320 Speaker 4: you have big banks, you have a lot of liquidity, 849 00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:30,960 Speaker 4: and that's pointing us in a positive direction, consumer spending 850 00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:32,960 Speaker 4: relatively okay. And then the flip side, you have mid 851 00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:35,719 Speaker 4: sized banks, small caps not doing really well. And it's 852 00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:37,520 Speaker 4: hard to kind of look at those two and see 853 00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:38,239 Speaker 4: who's going to win. 854 00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:42,040 Speaker 10: Yeah, No, it's we asked this are to ourselves all 855 00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,239 Speaker 10: the time, Where could we where could we be wrong? 856 00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:49,560 Speaker 10: I'd say the consumer has been significantly more resilient than 857 00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,520 Speaker 10: certainly we anticipated. I think certainly that. I think that 858 00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:56,359 Speaker 10: probably the majority of the markets anticipated. Could you get 859 00:40:56,360 --> 00:41:00,719 Speaker 10: a productivity enhanced you know, expansion and boom and the 860 00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:04,640 Speaker 10: you know a AI you know a AI productivity boom. 861 00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:08,120 Speaker 10: I think we we ask ourselves this all the time. 862 00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:11,680 Speaker 10: It's really can the can the economy grow? Can the 863 00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:15,680 Speaker 10: consumer remain resilient? And can you continue to see uh 864 00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:22,560 Speaker 10: upward momentum in or sustained growth in wages. I think 865 00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,799 Speaker 10: we've we've considered all these things. We would say we 866 00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:29,840 Speaker 10: think we're closer to consumer exhaustion then than not. Excess 867 00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:33,719 Speaker 10: savings have been spent down. We think the labor market 868 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,040 Speaker 10: underneath is definitely a little bit weaker than the headline 869 00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,839 Speaker 10: would imply. So we do ask ourselves out all the time. 870 00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:42,560 Speaker 10: The reflation, growth, productivity boom, those are kind of the 871 00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:46,440 Speaker 10: things that would where where you know, kind of a 872 00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:50,120 Speaker 10: duration long and a steepener call would certainly prove to 873 00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:52,960 Speaker 10: be premature, you know. 874 00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:56,239 Speaker 2: I finally Jerry got around yesterday truly to watching the 875 00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:58,680 Speaker 2: Big Short, so I got to ask a question about 876 00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:02,359 Speaker 2: mortgage back secure agency mortgages. How do you feel about 877 00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:03,240 Speaker 2: that part of the market. 878 00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:07,720 Speaker 10: Yeah, I was, it's that's a great question. So agency 879 00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:13,160 Speaker 10: mortgages look attractive nominally, but they look really attractive relative 880 00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:17,000 Speaker 10: to corporals. You think about where agency mortgages, you know, 881 00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,640 Speaker 10: the spread on agency mortgage I'll just put it this way. 882 00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:23,520 Speaker 10: The spread on agency mortgages relative to corporates looks like 883 00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:30,480 Speaker 10: looks like multi standard deviations, differential, and so our opinion 884 00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:36,279 Speaker 10: is that we like we like agency mortgages. Essentially, what 885 00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:40,359 Speaker 10: you're doing is trading duration risk for credit risk, you know, 886 00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:45,200 Speaker 10: full faith and credit of the government. Our thought is 887 00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:47,560 Speaker 10: at one hundred and fifty five over on current coup 888 00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:51,000 Speaker 10: on agency mortgages, and we can adjust for negative convexity 889 00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:53,880 Speaker 10: and some other things that we don't need to get into. Ultimately, 890 00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:57,840 Speaker 10: we think they're really attractive. There are parts of the 891 00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:02,560 Speaker 10: mortgage market, commercial mortgages, some other areas that are a 892 00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:04,279 Speaker 10: little bit more concerting. We think there'll be a lot 893 00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:10,319 Speaker 10: of opportunity there, but ultimately, you know, we're being but 894 00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:13,880 Speaker 10: we're certainly buying DC mortgages and we like agency mortgages 895 00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:14,160 Speaker 10: a lot. 896 00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:16,560 Speaker 4: All right, Jerry, thanks a lot, really appreciate. Jerry Kudz, 897 00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:20,560 Speaker 4: Group Managing Director and Generalist Portfolio manager at TCW. So 898 00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:24,840 Speaker 4: did you like it most? Kay? Everybody think it's better though. 899 00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:27,719 Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, you know, but no, it's good. 900 00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:31,560 Speaker 4: So you're only catching up to that now exactly. Time 901 00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:32,680 Speaker 4: to kill us time. 902 00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:35,120 Speaker 2: Going to the Nick game last night, and my day 903 00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:37,840 Speaker 2: is over at twelve, literally over at twelve, so I 904 00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,799 Speaker 2: had to wait around the Nick game, So I went up. 905 00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:42,560 Speaker 4: What does one do? You can't make fun of him 906 00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:44,879 Speaker 4: because you're watching a documentary on the Crimean War. Okay, 907 00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:49,120 Speaker 4: so I'm up to part three now, Yeah, okay, that's 908 00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:50,080 Speaker 4: just what we do for fun. 909 00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:55,640 Speaker 1: Here guys, this is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on apples, Spotify, 910 00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:59,080 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 911 00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:03,840 Speaker 1: weekday ten amterinoon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, 912 00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,640 Speaker 1: tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also 913 00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:10,120 Speaker 1: watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on 914 00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:11,200 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal