Speaker 1: Welcome to tech Stuff, a production from I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Hey there, and welcome to tech Stuff. I'm your host,
Speaker 1: Jonathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer with I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: and I love all things tech, and I figured for
Speaker 1: the last new episode of twenty twenty one, we should
Speaker 1: talk predictions for twenty twenty two. This is actually gonna
Speaker 1: be a pretty short episode because it's hard. It's always
Speaker 1: hard to predict tech full stop, Like whether you know
Speaker 1: it's a good year or a bad year, it's always
Speaker 1: tough to predict tech. In the era of a pandemic
Speaker 1: and semiconductor shortages and all that stuff, it has grown
Speaker 1: increasingly difficult to predict tech at least in any way
Speaker 1: that isn't like gloomy. So uh, this is also gonna
Speaker 1: be short because it is kind of a gloomy episode,
Speaker 1: and I apologize for that. It may just very well
Speaker 1: be a reflection of my own mental state as opposed to,
Speaker 1: you know, an actual vision of what will become. So
Speaker 1: take solace in that it could very well be then
Speaker 1: I am just being incredibly pessimistic with some of these predictions. Also,
Speaker 1: I should say like I have a pretty strong track
Speaker 1: record for not being right, So that should also be
Speaker 1: some comfort because I'm the guy who said that I
Speaker 1: was skeptical the iPad was ever going to be a hit.
Speaker 1: I thought it was gonna be a flop, and obviously
Speaker 1: I was completely wrong on that. So, you know, with
Speaker 1: that kind of bold prognosticating, I think we can all
Speaker 1: rest comfortably at the end of this episode, all right.
Speaker 1: I actually thought at first about making this sort of
Speaker 1: a wild and inaccurate predictions episode as a joke, you know,
Speaker 1: like predicting stuff like person an, old jet packs and
Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff. Except obviously that joke would
Speaker 1: get old within a minute, and then I would just
Speaker 1: have to keep doing it, you know, and commit to
Speaker 1: the joke until we had an episode on our hands,
Speaker 1: and that would be miserable. So to spare all of
Speaker 1: us us that, you know, terrible fate. Here's some basic
Speaker 1: predictions I think we'll see come to pass in twenty two,
Speaker 1: and I mentioned the semiconductor shortage. I think the semiconductor
Speaker 1: shortage will continue throughout next year. There are some tech
Speaker 1: analysts and some leaders who think that we might emerge
Speaker 1: from this shortage sometime in twenty twenty two, either by
Speaker 1: mid year or maybe late year, but I tend to
Speaker 1: be a bit more pessimistic about that. I agree with
Speaker 1: Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger, who believes it will stretch into
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. Now, there are a lot of companies
Speaker 1: out there that are rushing to build out production capable
Speaker 1: at these you know, manufacturing facilities, factories in other words,
Speaker 1: but those are still years out from coming online. Like
Speaker 1: that process is not fast, it's gonna take a long time.
Speaker 1: And again we're operating in a pandemic. Things like giant
Speaker 1: construction UH projects are hard to do. So also, chip
Speaker 1: production is just one part of this challenge. There's also
Speaker 1: the packaging side of the business. Most of the packaging
Speaker 1: happens in places like China, which receives the freshly produced
Speaker 1: semiconductors and then slaps them into packaging before they are
Speaker 1: shipped off. It is kind of crazy to think about
Speaker 1: how it is more economically viable to produce chips in
Speaker 1: one country, ship them to another country to be packaged,
Speaker 1: and then go off to go to warehouses around the
Speaker 1: world and stuff that that is actually cheaper than doing
Speaker 1: it all in the same country. But when you're talking
Speaker 1: about operating at scale, and when you're talking about countries
Speaker 1: that have uh not great worker practices. That's the way
Speaker 1: that kind of pans out. Anyway, The packaging part is
Speaker 1: another issue, right, Like, even if we ramp up production,
Speaker 1: we still have to have the other parts of this
Speaker 1: moving machine working. So it's possible that even should we
Speaker 1: see production capacity rise, will have a bottleneck in the
Speaker 1: packaging side of the chain. And then we have other
Speaker 1: general supply chain issues that we still have to deal with.
Speaker 1: And then there's the continuing uncertainty that just goes along
Speaker 1: with COVID in general. I suspect we will have moved
Speaker 1: beyond a macron sometime early in two at least I
Speaker 1: hope so. But then who knows what variant could be next.
Speaker 1: Like I would love to see COVID go from pandemic
Speaker 1: to endemic, uh, to have that shift happen in two
Speaker 1: and I really hope it happens. But you know, I
Speaker 1: had hoped it would happen by the end of twenty
Speaker 1: and here we are. So I'm sad to say I
Speaker 1: feel we won't see the other side of the semiconductor
Speaker 1: shortage in two UH, and that is going to affect
Speaker 1: numerous other industries. The computer and electronics industries are obviously
Speaker 1: going to be hit by this, but it also extends
Speaker 1: to other kinds of tech, including you know, automobiles. It
Speaker 1: might be a while before we start seeing super futuristic
Speaker 1: options available again, or even just you know, some of
Speaker 1: those cool options you saw on some of the higher
Speaker 1: end vehicles, things like really advanced entertainment systems and things
Speaker 1: like that. Some of that's gonna get scaled back because
Speaker 1: carmakers will have to kind of dial back a little
Speaker 1: bit in order to continue producing cars. Otherwise they may
Speaker 1: find out that their production quotas are held up because
Speaker 1: they don't have enough semiconductors to make these other, you know,
Speaker 1: tertiary systems alright. So that prediction in general is actually
Speaker 1: going to factor into a lot of other predictions I have. Uh.
Speaker 1: I like to look at other people who are making
Speaker 1: predictions as well and see what I think about them.
Speaker 1: One prediction I saw is from the chief Strategy Officer
Speaker 1: of lux Excel, person named Guido Gerert, who predicts that
Speaker 1: mixed reality glasses and other products in that that area
Speaker 1: are going to have a big year in two So
Speaker 1: these would be devices that tap into stuff like virtual
Speaker 1: reality and augmented reality experiences. Presumably these kinds of things
Speaker 1: would be really important for many of the proposed incarnations
Speaker 1: of a future metaverse, which obviously is in the hype
Speaker 1: cycle right now. I would love to see mixed reality
Speaker 1: headset really take off, but my prediction is they're gonna flop. Now.
Speaker 1: I hope I'm actually wrong about that. I, like I said,
Speaker 1: I want to see him succeed. I want to see
Speaker 1: them emerge from the niche market there in now. I mean,
Speaker 1: when Microsoft first started showing off the hollow lens a
Speaker 1: few years ago, I was really intrigued. But this technology
Speaker 1: has mostly been kept to the business sector. It's not
Speaker 1: like a consumer electronics product, and the stuff we have
Speaker 1: seen in the consumer space hasn't really established a considerable
Speaker 1: user base. I worry there aren't going to be nearly
Speaker 1: enough applications for this technology to really make it seem
Speaker 1: worthwhile to the average consumer. I mean, you're gonna have
Speaker 1: your early adopters. They'll rush out and get it. You'll
Speaker 1: have a few tech enthusiasts who are going to jump
Speaker 1: in there. I mean, I'm one of the people who
Speaker 1: actually owned a pair of Google glass, so I get
Speaker 1: that early adopter tech enthusiast thing. But unless there are
Speaker 1: some really compelling experiences and software that go along with
Speaker 1: the hardware, I don't think we're gonna see this catch on.
Speaker 1: Uh and even with really good applications, I still think
Speaker 1: this is an uphill battle. Folks have traditionally been a
Speaker 1: bit unimpressed or uninterested in headsets, from the failure of
Speaker 1: three D television to the relatively small VR gamer user base.
Speaker 1: I mean, I just feel like this is a tech
Speaker 1: that just isn't clicking with the mainstream, and without mainstream money,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure how many companies will stick around the
Speaker 1: mixed reality space for the long haul. Okay, but I
Speaker 1: do have one huge caveat to all of this. If
Speaker 1: Apple actually debuts it's rumored mixed reality headset this year,
Speaker 1: not necessarily offering it on sale, but at least showing
Speaker 1: it off, that might be enough to get the ball rolling,
Speaker 1: because Apple has proven a few times now that it
Speaker 1: can take a tech that has failed to hook the
Speaker 1: mainstream and then turn it around. Uh. That being said,
Speaker 1: it has been a while since Apple has done that, right.
Speaker 1: I mean, like they did it with the iPod, they
Speaker 1: did it with the iPhone, they did it with the iPad. Uh.
Speaker 1: They've done it to some extent with Matt computers, but
Speaker 1: it's been a while so UH. I don't know if
Speaker 1: Apple still has the same magic. But I would say
Speaker 1: that if anyone can get this thing moving in the
Speaker 1: right direction, that is getting people to adopt mixed reality,
Speaker 1: I would imagine Apple would be sort of the gateway.
Speaker 1: It'll also be incredibly expensive, but they might open up
Speaker 1: doors for others. I do think mixed reality has a
Speaker 1: valid place in technology. I think it's possible to make
Speaker 1: something really cool and exciting and useful. Uh. I saw
Speaker 1: potential in Google Glass, but that was a very early
Speaker 1: version of what I hope to see in the future.
Speaker 1: But I am skeptical that we're going to see any
Speaker 1: mixed reality headsets. Hardware software really established itself as a
Speaker 1: core technology in two at least not for the average person.
Speaker 1: I also mentioned the metaverse just then, and I feel
Speaker 1: like that's something else we're gonna hear some more hype about,
Speaker 1: but I don't expect that to work out anytime soon either.
Speaker 1: The computational power required to make a really robust, immersive
Speaker 1: and immense metaverse something that can support thousands or even
Speaker 1: tens of thousands of people being on at the same time.
Speaker 1: That's just something that we don't have. We don't have
Speaker 1: that computational power at our disposal, at least not on
Speaker 1: a scale that would be really impressive. And when you
Speaker 1: think about all the challenges involved, like building the tech foundation,
Speaker 1: figuring out what standards you want to use, like is
Speaker 1: your your system going to work with people who don't
Speaker 1: have say a VR setup, If it works with VR,
Speaker 1: is it going to work with all of them? Is
Speaker 1: it going to work with a subset of them? If
Speaker 1: it works with a subset, then you're automatically cutting out
Speaker 1: people who don't have that particular hardware. These are all,
Speaker 1: you know, basic problems that you have to tackle. You
Speaker 1: also have to support a coherent and persistent virtual landscape,
Speaker 1: and that might mean building in redundancy to handle issues
Speaker 1: like when the system might go down. We've seen a
Speaker 1: lot of issues with the Internet integrity in one. Obviously,
Speaker 1: you don't want the quote unquote future of the Internet
Speaker 1: to be unstable or unreliable. So these are really big
Speaker 1: engineering problems, made more complicated by the fact that at
Speaker 1: least most concepts of the metaverse include being in this
Speaker 1: very uh convincing and immersive experience. I mean that just
Speaker 1: requires a lot of of computer power. Now, it's I
Speaker 1: don't think that these problems are insurmountable, but I also
Speaker 1: think we're a long way from actually rising to meet
Speaker 1: the challenge. Not that we won't eventually do it, but
Speaker 1: that I don't think it's going to happen in two.
Speaker 1: I actually worry that if someone rushes out to try
Speaker 1: and get people excited in the idea and they release,
Speaker 1: you know, like an alpha version that is really stripped down,
Speaker 1: then the people who try it are probably gonna end
Speaker 1: up being disappointed when when they see what is actually
Speaker 1: possible is not measured up to what they thought was
Speaker 1: going to be possible what they were promised, which is
Speaker 1: essentially how people felt with VR back in the day.
Speaker 1: So I think the metaverse is just going to be
Speaker 1: a dud in two. I'm not saying it's never gonna happen.
Speaker 1: I just don't think we'll see any substantial progress next year.
Speaker 1: Now I could be totally wrong about that. And as
Speaker 1: to whether or not I think the metaverse is a
Speaker 1: good idea, I'm skeptical about that too. I worry that
Speaker 1: we're going to see a bunch of very wealthy, out
Speaker 1: of touch folks. Mark Zuckerberg head the design of virtual
Speaker 1: worlds that are gonna put the wealth and digital divides
Speaker 1: under an extremely bright spotlight. And I imagine accessing the
Speaker 1: metaverse whenever we do get one, is going to require
Speaker 1: some pretty hefty hardware and a really fast Internet connection,
Speaker 1: and that those requirements are going to cut off a
Speaker 1: substantial amount of the world's population. They will not be
Speaker 1: able to participate in this. And so what you end
Speaker 1: up with is potentially the tech elite playing a part
Speaker 1: in a world of digital conspicuous consumption, and no one
Speaker 1: else can participate. Honestly, if it's just conspicuous consumption, I'm
Speaker 1: okay with being left out. It'll just be gross. But
Speaker 1: that's what I think it's going to turn out to be.
Speaker 1: And again, I don't think we'll actually see that in two.
Speaker 1: All Right, we're gonna take a quick break when we
Speaker 1: come back a few more predictions. Something I do think
Speaker 1: we're gonna see in two this is not necessarily a
Speaker 1: good thing, is an explosion of tech in the healthcare space.
Speaker 1: You better believe there are tons of folks out there
Speaker 1: eyeing the medical world and looking for any angle they
Speaker 1: can exploit. So my guess is we're going to see
Speaker 1: a lot of startups taking aim at various aspects of
Speaker 1: healthcare and medicine. I mean that's already been the case,
Speaker 1: Like there's been a healthcare healthy if you will, healthcare
Speaker 1: tech sector for a long time. I think it's going
Speaker 1: to explode in Some of the startups are you know,
Speaker 1: kinda be good. They're gonna take aim at various aspects
Speaker 1: of medicine and make them better. But others I fear
Speaker 1: might fall more along the lines of Tharah no nos.
Speaker 1: You know, companies that tackle what turns out to be
Speaker 1: an impossible task. Uh. With Sarahs it was this idea
Speaker 1: of creating a desktop device that could test a micro
Speaker 1: drop of blood for hundreds of different potential signs of
Speaker 1: disease and conditions. Turned out that really wasn't viable. I'm
Speaker 1: worried we're gonna see a lot more of that because
Speaker 1: there's this tendency for folks to look at technology and
Speaker 1: see it as a general purpose solution that could fix
Speaker 1: any problem as long as you throw enough R and
Speaker 1: D and money at it. But as we've seen, that's
Speaker 1: not necessarily the case. Anyway, I'm certain by the end
Speaker 1: of two we will see a lot of companies that
Speaker 1: are a blend of tech and medicine. I hope more
Speaker 1: of them are helpful and fewer of them are a
Speaker 1: waste of time, money, and resources. And I really hope
Speaker 1: we don't see another case like Theoriness, which was a
Speaker 1: company that not only burnt through investment capital with nothing
Speaker 1: to really show for it, but in the process caused
Speaker 1: harm to innocent human beings who were relying on products
Speaker 1: or services from that company. Uh. That's the real tragedy
Speaker 1: of theiriness. I think two might be the year where
Speaker 1: we see companies actually put blockchain to an effective use.
Speaker 1: Maybe I don't think it's gonna be as grandiose as
Speaker 1: a fully fledged Web three, largely because no one's really
Speaker 1: nailed down what that's gonna look like. But some companies
Speaker 1: are bound to find at least some useful purpose for blockchain. Uh. This,
Speaker 1: by the way, is another story that frustrates me, because
Speaker 1: I think a lot of folks out there saw blockchain
Speaker 1: as again, kind of like a cure all solutions, sort
Speaker 1: of the way the cult of technology looks at tech.
Speaker 1: They think of blockchain and say that's our our, our solution,
Speaker 1: but they didn't define the problem that needed to be
Speaker 1: solved by blockchain, and that led to folks saying that
Speaker 1: blockchain could underpin all sorts of systems, but they never
Speaker 1: actually defined the first problem. So, in other words, this
Speaker 1: felt like a case where you have a solution and
Speaker 1: you're looking are a problem to fix that is not
Speaker 1: the best way to go about problem solving. In fact,
Speaker 1: it kind of reminds me of the as seen on
Speaker 1: TV type gadgets that I used to see on late
Speaker 1: night television, you know, back when I still watched television,
Speaker 1: and I'm pretty sure I heard some variation of it
Speaker 1: solves a problem you never even knew you had on
Speaker 1: those kinds of things, and a problem you don't know
Speaker 1: you have is usually not a problem at all. I mean,
Speaker 1: if you have a problem, usually you're aware of it.
Speaker 1: It's possible that you have some problems you're not aware of,
Speaker 1: But for this kind of stuff, yeah, you you kind
Speaker 1: of say like, oh, there's gotta be a better way
Speaker 1: to do this, and often this is not a better way,
Speaker 1: it's just a different way. Potentially you're actually making the
Speaker 1: process of dealing with whatever it is, you're doing more complicated,
Speaker 1: and you're incorporating a technology poorly. I feel that's how
Speaker 1: companies have been tackling blockchain. However, I do think we're
Speaker 1: gonna see at least some blockchain applications emerge in two
Speaker 1: that will be of actual use to companies. I still
Speaker 1: remain a bit skeptical over the whole concept of Web three,
Speaker 1: but I need to do a full episode about that.
Speaker 1: I will say there are a lot of extremely intelligent people,
Speaker 1: people smarter than I am, and some of whom might
Speaker 1: have a personal stake in the concept of Web three,
Speaker 1: so that creates a bit of bias. But there are
Speaker 1: a lot of smart people who say that is the
Speaker 1: way forward, Web three is the future. They might be right.
Speaker 1: I feel this is an area where my own lack
Speaker 1: of awareness and understanding could be coloring my prediction. I
Speaker 1: just haven't seen much there there, you know, like I
Speaker 1: haven't seen substance to this. It's a lot of notions,
Speaker 1: like the idea of a decentralized Internet where the people
Speaker 1: participating have ownership of the actual Internet, and it breaks
Speaker 1: the Internet free from giant monoliths like m is on
Speaker 1: in Google and Facebook, but I haven't actually seen, like
Speaker 1: how I hear what it's supposed to do, I haven't
Speaker 1: really seen how it's supposed to do it. Um, I
Speaker 1: have seen a lot of venture capitalists get really excited
Speaker 1: about it, and like Jack Dorsey, the former CEO of Twitter, said,
Speaker 1: it may very well be that you're just looking at
Speaker 1: not a decentralized Internet. It'll just be centralized in different
Speaker 1: you know, areas of power, namely the venture capitalists who
Speaker 1: are funding everything. But anyway, I very much doubt Web
Speaker 1: three is going to be a thing anytime soon, at
Speaker 1: least not in two But I also have to admit
Speaker 1: I need to do a ton more research into this topic.
Speaker 1: It's very possible I'm just not seeing the obvious here,
Speaker 1: and so I know that's a long way of saying
Speaker 1: I might be wrong, but like, and I need to
Speaker 1: couch all that because while I feel a lot of skepticism,
Speaker 1: I also have to admit there's a lack of knowledge
Speaker 1: there on my part, and that that you know, you
Speaker 1: can't just be skeptical skeptical of something just because you
Speaker 1: didn't bother to learn more about it. So I will
Speaker 1: do another episode, a full episode about Web three in
Speaker 1: the future. Once I get some time to really dive
Speaker 1: into it, I suspect we will see China take a
Speaker 1: harder regulatory stance in the tech industry. Within China, um
Speaker 1: Si Jinping has proven to be pretty proactive in reining
Speaker 1: in companies that get very large, very wealthy, very quickly. Now,
Speaker 1: whether that is to make sure the companies are not
Speaker 1: gonna balloon out of control or cause harm like, there's
Speaker 1: obviously the fear about collecting data, right, we see this
Speaker 1: this concern around the world, this idea of companies collecting
Speaker 1: enormous amounts of data about private individuals and how harmful
Speaker 1: that can be. Well, that's some of the reasoning behind
Speaker 1: the regulations in China. There are others who say that
Speaker 1: perhaps this is more about a play in keeping any
Speaker 1: entity from rivaling the power of the communist government in China,
Speaker 1: the idea that you don't want to create corporations so
Speaker 1: powerful that they hold sway over the government like you
Speaker 1: might in other countries. But the end result here is
Speaker 1: that a lot of companies in China, and tech companies
Speaker 1: in particular in China, have been hit with some heavy
Speaker 1: regulations this past year, and I expect that's going to continue.
Speaker 1: I also think that's going to convince more companies to
Speaker 1: follow in the footsteps of Yahoo, which pulled up stakes
Speaker 1: as far as doing business in China is concerned, I
Speaker 1: think we're gonna see more companies come to a similar
Speaker 1: conclusion that the revenues generated in China are not worth
Speaker 1: the price of doing business there. Okay, I've got a
Speaker 1: few more predictions to go through, but before we get
Speaker 1: to that, let's take another quick break. As we see
Speaker 1: countries commit to a move toward being carbon neutral or
Speaker 1: even carbon negative, I think we should also expect to
Speaker 1: see a lot of companies offer up products and services
Speaker 1: targeted at supporting those efforts. So I suspect in two
Speaker 1: we're gonna see lots of pushes to expand renewable energy capabilities,
Speaker 1: energy storage solutions, and similar implementations. I also worry about
Speaker 1: this a lot. Not because I think that renewable energy
Speaker 1: technology is a bad thing. I don't. I think it's
Speaker 1: a good thing. But the reason I worry is, once again,
Speaker 1: too many of us have this tendency to put a
Speaker 1: lot of faith in technology and then just assume that
Speaker 1: the problem has been fixed. I think that's a very
Speaker 1: dangerous mindset, and I worry about it. In fact, as
Speaker 1: a little anecdote, I remember, before it was a podcaster,
Speaker 1: I remember listening to a podcast about skepticism and critical
Speaker 1: thinking in which one of the hosts largely dismissed climate
Speaker 1: change concerns, essentially saying, we would engineer our way out
Speaker 1: of it, we would use technology to solve the problem.
Speaker 1: And I think that is an extremely dangerous response, and
Speaker 1: it ignores issues like holding people and companies accountable for
Speaker 1: how they contribute to climate change and carbon emissions. So
Speaker 1: I guess what I'm saying is that I do want
Speaker 1: to see more renewable energy solutions. I want to see
Speaker 1: a lot of that in two but I don't want
Speaker 1: us to let that serve as a smoke screen for
Speaker 1: companies and nations that are still dumping tons of carbon
Speaker 1: dioxide into the atmosphere and contributing to climate change. Like
Speaker 1: we can't just say, oh, we made more solar panels,
Speaker 1: so everything's okay. Now, we have to take a bigger
Speaker 1: picture view of this, or else we're not really solving
Speaker 1: the problem. It's kind of the issue I have with
Speaker 1: a lot of of of carbon taxing and things of
Speaker 1: that nature, and carbon offsets. I feel like a lot
Speaker 1: of that ends up just being carte blanche for companies
Speaker 1: to continue to dump enormous amounts of carbon dioxide with
Speaker 1: the intent of capturing it in some way, but that
Speaker 1: falls to other people other places. Uh, it may just
Speaker 1: mean that that becomes a bottom line expense in a
Speaker 1: company ledger and nothing is actually done about it. And
Speaker 1: the fact is that, yeah, you might call it carbon
Speaker 1: capture or whatever, but if you're not actually doing it,
Speaker 1: then all you're really doing is shifting some money around
Speaker 1: and the world just keeps getting more polluted. So that's
Speaker 1: why I get on my high horse about that. Uh.
Speaker 1: One thing that we will definitely see more of in
Speaker 1: two This is such an obvious prediction that I almost
Speaker 1: didn't even put it in here, is that we're gonna
Speaker 1: see a lot more focus on cybersecurity. We're gonna see
Speaker 1: calls around the world to create regulations to boost cybersecurity
Speaker 1: practices and hold companies and organizations responsible for following cybersecurity
Speaker 1: best practices. Like I would not be surprised to see
Speaker 1: countries pass laws that say when a patch is released,
Speaker 1: like a security patch is released for a product that
Speaker 1: has a known vulnerability in it. The companies will have
Speaker 1: a maximum amount of time they're allowed before they have
Speaker 1: to implement the patch, or else they will be fined.
Speaker 1: I think that's gonna be a thing. I'm less convinced
Speaker 1: that we're gonna see something like that done in the
Speaker 1: United States. Um, even though we saw several high profile
Speaker 1: ransomware cases play out in the United States, I don't
Speaker 1: think we're gonna see a whole lot of movement in
Speaker 1: the US on this from a political standpoint, simply because
Speaker 1: the US is in the middle of a pretty dark
Speaker 1: era and there's increasing polarization between the left side of
Speaker 1: the political spectrum and the right side of the political spectrum,
Speaker 1: and the likelihood of reaching consensus on anything seems optimistic
Speaker 1: to the extreme because a lot of the energy seems
Speaker 1: to be dedicated toward demonizing the other side and less
Speaker 1: about getting stuff done. However, I really do hope we
Speaker 1: actually see real movement to make cybersecurity a top priority
Speaker 1: in all industries, because it is clear that the cyber
Speaker 1: attacks are not going to just stop, so we have
Speaker 1: to put that work in to fight against it. I
Speaker 1: think we're gonna see companies struggle to figure out what
Speaker 1: the new normal is. I think for a lot of people,
Speaker 1: there's now an expectation that having to go into the
Speaker 1: office is no longer a given requirement, that should not
Speaker 1: be part of the job. Necessarily for people who want
Speaker 1: to go sure, but I think a lot of folks
Speaker 1: say that should not be a requirement for all offices
Speaker 1: every there, and companies that push for employees to return
Speaker 1: to the office might find themselves struggling to attract and
Speaker 1: retain talent as folks migrate to other companies that are
Speaker 1: less adamant about office life, or they go and found
Speaker 1: their own businesses. Now, I don't think we're saying goodbye
Speaker 1: to offices everywhere. I don't think office culture is dead
Speaker 1: and gone, but I do think there's gonna be a
Speaker 1: pretty big shift, and obviously that will start to have
Speaker 1: an impact on things like office space in general. We
Speaker 1: haven't yet seen trends of massive office spaces going vacant
Speaker 1: in the sense that companies have actually pulled out of
Speaker 1: their lease and no one else has come in. We
Speaker 1: haven't really seen that trend yet. We've definitely seen the
Speaker 1: trend of empty offices. I mean, whenever I go to
Speaker 1: the office these days, I might see as many as
Speaker 1: two or three other people. I think on the busiest
Speaker 1: day I saw five. But otherwise, like, there have been
Speaker 1: several times where I've had to go into the office
Speaker 1: and I am the only on there, and I know
Speaker 1: that's not unusual, but again, we have that office space.
Speaker 1: I'm saying that in two we're going to see companies
Speaker 1: start to scale back on the amount of office space
Speaker 1: they actually have, that they won't need as much because
Speaker 1: they'll adopt a different approach to work. I'm not super
Speaker 1: confident about this prediction, however, because there might be a
Speaker 1: strong enough effort from companies to push back on that
Speaker 1: and get back to a return to commuting into work
Speaker 1: every day or at least a few times every week,
Speaker 1: that maybe that won't come to pass. However, another trend
Speaker 1: that I expect we will see continue in two is
Speaker 1: one that's being called the Great Resignation. UH. The United
Speaker 1: States Labor Department has been tracking the rate at which
Speaker 1: people have been quitting their jobs so before the pandemic,
Speaker 1: the number of people who are resigning, that is, quitting
Speaker 1: voluntarily as opposed to being encouraged to depart, which is
Speaker 1: just another way of saying getting canned. Uh that rate
Speaker 1: was around three and a half million people per month.
Speaker 1: Late this year, those numbers grew to more than four
Speaker 1: million people per month. Employers are posting more job openings,
Speaker 1: but there's a labor shortage at this point. Meanwhile, the
Speaker 1: folks who are left behind when someone quits are frequently
Speaker 1: burdened with extra work that can be demoralizing. That can
Speaker 1: then end up contributing to people who are left behind
Speaker 1: to say, you know what, I'm out of here too,
Speaker 1: And it becomes a vicious cycle and you start to
Speaker 1: see more and more people resign. Many of those resigning
Speaker 1: are older workers, and we're seeing larger numbers of them
Speaker 1: for an early retirement. Uh so they're not going to
Speaker 1: work for somewhere you know different, They're just they're just retiring.
Speaker 1: Early a third of all people who quit are saying
Speaker 1: they set out to start their own business, which is
Speaker 1: pretty incredible. I mean, thirty three of people resigning saying
Speaker 1: they want to go into business for themselves. I mean,
Speaker 1: it is a hustle culture out there. It's a lot
Speaker 1: of health hustle to have your own business. But then again,
Speaker 1: I mean, we've been training an entire generation of people
Speaker 1: to hustle. That's that's the way they get by, So
Speaker 1: maybe it's all going to work out. At the moment,
Speaker 1: workers have the leverage in this situation. It's more of
Speaker 1: a workers market than a company market, and I expect
Speaker 1: we will see that continue at least into the first
Speaker 1: half of twenty twenty two. And those are my predictions.
Speaker 1: Like I said, it's a little bit of a shorter episode.
Speaker 1: Didn't want to get too granular in this because, honestly,
Speaker 1: with COVID making such a huge impact, it's hard to
Speaker 1: make more granular predictions. Like I thought about predicting which
Speaker 1: video games would not come out in two and we
Speaker 1: get pushed into three, but then that starts to sound
Speaker 1: kind of ugly, and I didn't want to get ugly
Speaker 1: on this episode, not any uglier than I already did.
Speaker 1: I hope you out there all are having a lovely
Speaker 1: holiday season. I wish you all the best in two.
Speaker 1: I really hope my gloomy predictions are all wrong. I
Speaker 1: would love to come to the end of two and say,
Speaker 1: why twenty two rocked it so hard and I was
Speaker 1: so wrong. That would be a fantastic thing to have
Speaker 1: to do at the end of the year. Here's hoping.
Speaker 1: And if you have suggestions for topics I should cover
Speaker 1: in future episodes of tech Stuff, please reach out to
Speaker 1: me on Twitter. The handle for the show is text
Speaker 1: Stuff H s W and I'll talk to you again
Speaker 1: in the new year. Text Stuff is an I Heart
Speaker 1: Radio production. For more podcasts from my Heart Radio, visit
Speaker 1: the i Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you
Speaker 1: listen to your favorite shows.