WEBVTT - TechStuff Predicts 2022 0:00:04.400 --> 0:00:07.800 Welcome to tech Stuff, a production from I Heart Radio. 0:00:12.039 --> 0:00:14.680 Hey there, and welcome to tech Stuff. I'm your host, 0:00:14.760 --> 0:00:17.560 Jonathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer with I Heart Radio, 0:00:17.600 --> 0:00:21.279 and I love all things tech, and I figured for 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:25.960 the last new episode of twenty twenty one, we should 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:30.720 talk predictions for twenty twenty two. This is actually gonna 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:36.080 be a pretty short episode because it's hard. It's always 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:40.680 hard to predict tech full stop, Like whether you know 0:00:40.920 --> 0:00:42.800 it's a good year or a bad year, it's always 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:47.280 tough to predict tech. In the era of a pandemic 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:52.440 and semiconductor shortages and all that stuff, it has grown 0:00:53.400 --> 0:00:57.320 increasingly difficult to predict tech at least in any way 0:00:57.360 --> 0:01:01.320 that isn't like gloomy. So uh, this is also gonna 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:03.440 be short because it is kind of a gloomy episode, 0:01:03.440 --> 0:01:06.119 and I apologize for that. It may just very well 0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:10.880 be a reflection of my own mental state as opposed to, 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:15.840 you know, an actual vision of what will become. So 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:18.720 take solace in that it could very well be then 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:22.600 I am just being incredibly pessimistic with some of these predictions. Also, 0:01:22.640 --> 0:01:25.560 I should say like I have a pretty strong track 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:29.600 record for not being right, So that should also be 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:33.120 some comfort because I'm the guy who said that I 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:36.080 was skeptical the iPad was ever going to be a hit. 0:01:36.120 --> 0:01:38.479 I thought it was gonna be a flop, and obviously 0:01:38.520 --> 0:01:41.640 I was completely wrong on that. So, you know, with 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:45.640 that kind of bold prognosticating, I think we can all 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:48.280 rest comfortably at the end of this episode, all right. 0:01:48.760 --> 0:01:51.160 I actually thought at first about making this sort of 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:56.720 a wild and inaccurate predictions episode as a joke, you know, 0:01:56.760 --> 0:02:00.800 like predicting stuff like person an, old jet packs and 0:02:00.840 --> 0:02:03.240 all that kind of stuff. Except obviously that joke would 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:06.080 get old within a minute, and then I would just 0:02:06.120 --> 0:02:08.200 have to keep doing it, you know, and commit to 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:10.400 the joke until we had an episode on our hands, 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:13.040 and that would be miserable. So to spare all of 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:17.240 us us that, you know, terrible fate. Here's some basic 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:21.240 predictions I think we'll see come to pass in twenty two, 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:26.880 and I mentioned the semiconductor shortage. I think the semiconductor 0:02:26.960 --> 0:02:32.040 shortage will continue throughout next year. There are some tech 0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:35.840 analysts and some leaders who think that we might emerge 0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:40.040 from this shortage sometime in twenty twenty two, either by 0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:43.920 mid year or maybe late year, but I tend to 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:47.680 be a bit more pessimistic about that. I agree with 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:51.960 Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger, who believes it will stretch into 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:56.680 twenty twenty three. Now, there are a lot of companies 0:02:56.720 --> 0:02:59.920 out there that are rushing to build out production capable 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:03.920 at these you know, manufacturing facilities, factories in other words, 0:03:04.919 --> 0:03:07.800 but those are still years out from coming online. Like 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:11.720 that process is not fast, it's gonna take a long time. 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:15.600 And again we're operating in a pandemic. Things like giant 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:22.440 construction UH projects are hard to do. So also, chip 0:03:22.480 --> 0:03:25.800 production is just one part of this challenge. There's also 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:29.840 the packaging side of the business. Most of the packaging 0:03:29.919 --> 0:03:33.600 happens in places like China, which receives the freshly produced 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:37.480 semiconductors and then slaps them into packaging before they are 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:41.560 shipped off. It is kind of crazy to think about 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:47.800 how it is more economically viable to produce chips in 0:03:47.880 --> 0:03:52.040 one country, ship them to another country to be packaged, 0:03:52.480 --> 0:03:56.360 and then go off to go to warehouses around the 0:03:56.400 --> 0:04:00.840 world and stuff that that is actually cheaper than doing 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.680 it all in the same country. But when you're talking 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:06.760 about operating at scale, and when you're talking about countries 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:11.920 that have uh not great worker practices. That's the way 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:16.200 that kind of pans out. Anyway, The packaging part is 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:19.360 another issue, right, Like, even if we ramp up production, 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:22.240 we still have to have the other parts of this 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:27.120 moving machine working. So it's possible that even should we 0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:30.520 see production capacity rise, will have a bottleneck in the 0:04:30.560 --> 0:04:33.560 packaging side of the chain. And then we have other 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:36.960 general supply chain issues that we still have to deal with. 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:40.719 And then there's the continuing uncertainty that just goes along 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:44.480 with COVID in general. I suspect we will have moved 0:04:44.520 --> 0:04:49.520 beyond a macron sometime early in two at least I 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:54.120 hope so. But then who knows what variant could be next. 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:58.840 Like I would love to see COVID go from pandemic 0:04:58.920 --> 0:05:05.120 to endemic, uh, to have that shift happen in two 0:05:05.480 --> 0:05:08.920 and I really hope it happens. But you know, I 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:10.760 had hoped it would happen by the end of twenty 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:13.880 and here we are. So I'm sad to say I 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:16.279 feel we won't see the other side of the semiconductor 0:05:16.400 --> 0:05:21.240 shortage in two UH, and that is going to affect 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:26.320 numerous other industries. The computer and electronics industries are obviously 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:28.880 going to be hit by this, but it also extends 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:32.640 to other kinds of tech, including you know, automobiles. It 0:05:32.720 --> 0:05:35.800 might be a while before we start seeing super futuristic 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:39.000 options available again, or even just you know, some of 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:41.040 those cool options you saw on some of the higher 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:46.440 end vehicles, things like really advanced entertainment systems and things 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:49.360 like that. Some of that's gonna get scaled back because 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:53.760 carmakers will have to kind of dial back a little 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:58.880 bit in order to continue producing cars. Otherwise they may 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:01.200 find out that their production quotas are held up because 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:04.320 they don't have enough semiconductors to make these other, you know, 0:06:04.560 --> 0:06:10.400 tertiary systems alright. So that prediction in general is actually 0:06:10.400 --> 0:06:13.440 going to factor into a lot of other predictions I have. Uh. 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:15.760 I like to look at other people who are making 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:18.960 predictions as well and see what I think about them. 0:06:19.839 --> 0:06:23.400 One prediction I saw is from the chief Strategy Officer 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:29.400 of lux Excel, person named Guido Gerert, who predicts that 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:34.000 mixed reality glasses and other products in that that area 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:36.960 are going to have a big year in two So 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:40.520 these would be devices that tap into stuff like virtual 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:46.160 reality and augmented reality experiences. Presumably these kinds of things 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:49.680 would be really important for many of the proposed incarnations 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:54.040 of a future metaverse, which obviously is in the hype 0:06:54.040 --> 0:06:59.000 cycle right now. I would love to see mixed reality 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:05.120 headset really take off, but my prediction is they're gonna flop. Now. 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:08.000 I hope I'm actually wrong about that. I, like I said, 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:10.360 I want to see him succeed. I want to see 0:07:10.360 --> 0:07:14.360 them emerge from the niche market there in now. I mean, 0:07:14.400 --> 0:07:16.920 when Microsoft first started showing off the hollow lens a 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:21.280 few years ago, I was really intrigued. But this technology 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:25.440 has mostly been kept to the business sector. It's not 0:07:25.760 --> 0:07:29.960 like a consumer electronics product, and the stuff we have 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:33.360 seen in the consumer space hasn't really established a considerable 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:36.920 user base. I worry there aren't going to be nearly 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:40.680 enough applications for this technology to really make it seem 0:07:40.720 --> 0:07:44.120 worthwhile to the average consumer. I mean, you're gonna have 0:07:44.200 --> 0:07:47.720 your early adopters. They'll rush out and get it. You'll 0:07:47.720 --> 0:07:49.960 have a few tech enthusiasts who are going to jump 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:53.040 in there. I mean, I'm one of the people who 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:57.280 actually owned a pair of Google glass, so I get 0:07:57.320 --> 0:08:00.720 that early adopter tech enthusiast thing. But unless there are 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:05.440 some really compelling experiences and software that go along with 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:10.040 the hardware, I don't think we're gonna see this catch on. 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:13.680 Uh and even with really good applications, I still think 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:17.360 this is an uphill battle. Folks have traditionally been a 0:08:17.400 --> 0:08:21.520 bit unimpressed or uninterested in headsets, from the failure of 0:08:21.640 --> 0:08:26.840 three D television to the relatively small VR gamer user base. 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:29.640 I mean, I just feel like this is a tech 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:34.360 that just isn't clicking with the mainstream, and without mainstream money, 0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:37.880 I'm not sure how many companies will stick around the 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:42.640 mixed reality space for the long haul. Okay, but I 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:46.400 do have one huge caveat to all of this. If 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:51.200 Apple actually debuts it's rumored mixed reality headset this year, 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:54.920 not necessarily offering it on sale, but at least showing 0:08:54.960 --> 0:09:00.400 it off, that might be enough to get the ball rolling, 0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:03.560 because Apple has proven a few times now that it 0:09:03.600 --> 0:09:06.160 can take a tech that has failed to hook the 0:09:06.200 --> 0:09:10.640 mainstream and then turn it around. Uh. That being said, 0:09:10.880 --> 0:09:13.280 it has been a while since Apple has done that, right. 0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:16.360 I mean, like they did it with the iPod, they 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:19.520 did it with the iPhone, they did it with the iPad. Uh. 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:22.920 They've done it to some extent with Matt computers, but 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:27.600 it's been a while so UH. I don't know if 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:30.080 Apple still has the same magic. But I would say 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:32.640 that if anyone can get this thing moving in the 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:36.440 right direction, that is getting people to adopt mixed reality, 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:39.240 I would imagine Apple would be sort of the gateway. 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:42.880 It'll also be incredibly expensive, but they might open up 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:47.199 doors for others. I do think mixed reality has a 0:09:47.280 --> 0:09:50.000 valid place in technology. I think it's possible to make 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:53.960 something really cool and exciting and useful. Uh. I saw 0:09:54.040 --> 0:09:57.440 potential in Google Glass, but that was a very early 0:09:57.640 --> 0:09:59.760 version of what I hope to see in the future. 0:10:00.640 --> 0:10:02.440 But I am skeptical that we're going to see any 0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:07.280 mixed reality headsets. Hardware software really established itself as a 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:11.920 core technology in two at least not for the average person. 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:16.640 I also mentioned the metaverse just then, and I feel 0:10:16.640 --> 0:10:19.160 like that's something else we're gonna hear some more hype about, 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:22.439 but I don't expect that to work out anytime soon either. 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:27.920 The computational power required to make a really robust, immersive 0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:32.600 and immense metaverse something that can support thousands or even 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:35.640 tens of thousands of people being on at the same time. 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:39.360 That's just something that we don't have. We don't have 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:42.080 that computational power at our disposal, at least not on 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:45.440 a scale that would be really impressive. And when you 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:50.120 think about all the challenges involved, like building the tech foundation, 0:10:50.920 --> 0:10:54.280 figuring out what standards you want to use, like is 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:57.880 your your system going to work with people who don't 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:01.200 have say a VR setup, If it works with VR, 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:02.840 is it going to work with all of them? Is 0:11:02.840 --> 0:11:04.959 it going to work with a subset of them? If 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:07.760 it works with a subset, then you're automatically cutting out 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:11.480 people who don't have that particular hardware. These are all, 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:15.840 you know, basic problems that you have to tackle. You 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:20.160 also have to support a coherent and persistent virtual landscape, 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:23.720 and that might mean building in redundancy to handle issues 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:26.400 like when the system might go down. We've seen a 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:31.880 lot of issues with the Internet integrity in one. Obviously, 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:34.520 you don't want the quote unquote future of the Internet 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:37.839 to be unstable or unreliable. So these are really big 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:42.520 engineering problems, made more complicated by the fact that at 0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:45.920 least most concepts of the metaverse include being in this 0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:50.400 very uh convincing and immersive experience. I mean that just 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:54.680 requires a lot of of computer power. Now, it's I 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:58.960 don't think that these problems are insurmountable, but I also 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:03.120 think we're a long way from actually rising to meet 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:06.240 the challenge. Not that we won't eventually do it, but 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:08.679 that I don't think it's going to happen in two. 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:12.560 I actually worry that if someone rushes out to try 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:15.040 and get people excited in the idea and they release, 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:19.560 you know, like an alpha version that is really stripped down, 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:22.040 then the people who try it are probably gonna end 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:25.600 up being disappointed when when they see what is actually 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:28.440 possible is not measured up to what they thought was 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:31.560 going to be possible what they were promised, which is 0:12:31.679 --> 0:12:35.240 essentially how people felt with VR back in the day. 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:38.960 So I think the metaverse is just going to be 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:43.120 a dud in two. I'm not saying it's never gonna happen. 0:12:43.160 --> 0:12:46.200 I just don't think we'll see any substantial progress next year. 0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:49.559 Now I could be totally wrong about that. And as 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:51.439 to whether or not I think the metaverse is a 0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:55.120 good idea, I'm skeptical about that too. I worry that 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.520 we're going to see a bunch of very wealthy, out 0:12:57.520 --> 0:13:03.480 of touch folks. Mark Zuckerberg head the design of virtual 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:06.280 worlds that are gonna put the wealth and digital divides 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:10.400 under an extremely bright spotlight. And I imagine accessing the 0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:14.320 metaverse whenever we do get one, is going to require 0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:18.080 some pretty hefty hardware and a really fast Internet connection, 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:21.839 and that those requirements are going to cut off a 0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:24.800 substantial amount of the world's population. They will not be 0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:28.080 able to participate in this. And so what you end 0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:32.880 up with is potentially the tech elite playing a part 0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:36.720 in a world of digital conspicuous consumption, and no one 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:40.880 else can participate. Honestly, if it's just conspicuous consumption, I'm 0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:44.400 okay with being left out. It'll just be gross. But 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:46.720 that's what I think it's going to turn out to be. 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:50.000 And again, I don't think we'll actually see that in two. 0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:53.240 All Right, we're gonna take a quick break when we 0:13:53.320 --> 0:14:03.480 come back a few more predictions. Something I do think 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:06.520 we're gonna see in two this is not necessarily a 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:10.120 good thing, is an explosion of tech in the healthcare space. 0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:13.880 You better believe there are tons of folks out there 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:17.160 eyeing the medical world and looking for any angle they 0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:19.840 can exploit. So my guess is we're going to see 0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:23.280 a lot of startups taking aim at various aspects of 0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:26.320 healthcare and medicine. I mean that's already been the case, 0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:30.840 Like there's been a healthcare healthy if you will, healthcare 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:34.360 tech sector for a long time. I think it's going 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:40.280 to explode in Some of the startups are you know, 0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:43.680 kinda be good. They're gonna take aim at various aspects 0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:47.920 of medicine and make them better. But others I fear 0:14:48.240 --> 0:14:51.040 might fall more along the lines of Tharah no nos. 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:54.000 You know, companies that tackle what turns out to be 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:58.200 an impossible task. Uh. With Sarahs it was this idea 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:01.640 of creating a desktop device that could test a micro 0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:05.800 drop of blood for hundreds of different potential signs of 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:11.520 disease and conditions. Turned out that really wasn't viable. I'm 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:13.520 worried we're gonna see a lot more of that because 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:17.240 there's this tendency for folks to look at technology and 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:20.480 see it as a general purpose solution that could fix 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:22.960 any problem as long as you throw enough R and 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:26.560 D and money at it. But as we've seen, that's 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:29.880 not necessarily the case. Anyway, I'm certain by the end 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:32.320 of two we will see a lot of companies that 0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:36.000 are a blend of tech and medicine. I hope more 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:39.000 of them are helpful and fewer of them are a 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:42.920 waste of time, money, and resources. And I really hope 0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:46.720 we don't see another case like Theoriness, which was a 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:50.200 company that not only burnt through investment capital with nothing 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:53.520 to really show for it, but in the process caused 0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:56.720 harm to innocent human beings who were relying on products 0:15:56.800 --> 0:16:01.040 or services from that company. Uh. That's the real tragedy 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:05.120 of theiriness. I think two might be the year where 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:09.960 we see companies actually put blockchain to an effective use. 0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:14.840 Maybe I don't think it's gonna be as grandiose as 0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:19.280 a fully fledged Web three, largely because no one's really 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:22.640 nailed down what that's gonna look like. But some companies 0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:27.480 are bound to find at least some useful purpose for blockchain. Uh. This, 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:30.480 by the way, is another story that frustrates me, because 0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:32.960 I think a lot of folks out there saw blockchain 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:35.720 as again, kind of like a cure all solutions, sort 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:38.760 of the way the cult of technology looks at tech. 0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:42.840 They think of blockchain and say that's our our, our solution, 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:45.720 but they didn't define the problem that needed to be 0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:48.920 solved by blockchain, and that led to folks saying that 0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:53.400 blockchain could underpin all sorts of systems, but they never 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:56.840 actually defined the first problem. So, in other words, this 0:16:56.920 --> 0:16:59.320 felt like a case where you have a solution and 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:01.840 you're looking are a problem to fix that is not 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:04.680 the best way to go about problem solving. In fact, 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:07.320 it kind of reminds me of the as seen on 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:10.320 TV type gadgets that I used to see on late 0:17:10.400 --> 0:17:14.199 night television, you know, back when I still watched television, 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:17.159 and I'm pretty sure I heard some variation of it 0:17:17.240 --> 0:17:20.360 solves a problem you never even knew you had on 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:23.320 those kinds of things, and a problem you don't know 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:26.640 you have is usually not a problem at all. I mean, 0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:28.840 if you have a problem, usually you're aware of it. 0:17:28.840 --> 0:17:31.679 It's possible that you have some problems you're not aware of, 0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:34.440 But for this kind of stuff, yeah, you you kind 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:36.040 of say like, oh, there's gotta be a better way 0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:39.800 to do this, and often this is not a better way, 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:43.439 it's just a different way. Potentially you're actually making the 0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:47.080 process of dealing with whatever it is, you're doing more complicated, 0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:50.880 and you're incorporating a technology poorly. I feel that's how 0:17:50.960 --> 0:17:55.639 companies have been tackling blockchain. However, I do think we're 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:59.880 gonna see at least some blockchain applications emerge in two 0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:03.920 that will be of actual use to companies. I still 0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.880 remain a bit skeptical over the whole concept of Web three, 0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:09.880 but I need to do a full episode about that. 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:15.200 I will say there are a lot of extremely intelligent people, 0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:18.680 people smarter than I am, and some of whom might 0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:21.240 have a personal stake in the concept of Web three, 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:23.840 so that creates a bit of bias. But there are 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:25.960 a lot of smart people who say that is the 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:29.880 way forward, Web three is the future. They might be right. 0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:33.000 I feel this is an area where my own lack 0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:38.040 of awareness and understanding could be coloring my prediction. I 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:42.800 just haven't seen much there there, you know, like I 0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:48.040 haven't seen substance to this. It's a lot of notions, 0:18:48.920 --> 0:18:52.040 like the idea of a decentralized Internet where the people 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:56.720 participating have ownership of the actual Internet, and it breaks 0:18:56.720 --> 0:19:00.280 the Internet free from giant monoliths like m is on 0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:05.399 in Google and Facebook, but I haven't actually seen, like 0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:09.760 how I hear what it's supposed to do, I haven't 0:19:09.840 --> 0:19:12.720 really seen how it's supposed to do it. Um, I 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:15.880 have seen a lot of venture capitalists get really excited 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:19.600 about it, and like Jack Dorsey, the former CEO of Twitter, said, 0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:22.720 it may very well be that you're just looking at 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:26.560 not a decentralized Internet. It'll just be centralized in different 0:19:27.080 --> 0:19:30.960 you know, areas of power, namely the venture capitalists who 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:36.160 are funding everything. But anyway, I very much doubt Web 0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:38.480 three is going to be a thing anytime soon, at 0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:41.439 least not in two But I also have to admit 0:19:42.080 --> 0:19:44.840 I need to do a ton more research into this topic. 0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:48.600 It's very possible I'm just not seeing the obvious here, 0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:51.119 and so I know that's a long way of saying 0:19:52.720 --> 0:19:54.919 I might be wrong, but like, and I need to 0:19:54.960 --> 0:19:58.520 couch all that because while I feel a lot of skepticism, 0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:01.760 I also have to admit there's a lack of knowledge 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:04.479 there on my part, and that that you know, you 0:20:04.520 --> 0:20:07.879 can't just be skeptical skeptical of something just because you 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:11.160 didn't bother to learn more about it. So I will 0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:13.600 do another episode, a full episode about Web three in 0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:16.520 the future. Once I get some time to really dive 0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:20.600 into it, I suspect we will see China take a 0:20:20.680 --> 0:20:25.840 harder regulatory stance in the tech industry. Within China, um 0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:29.520 Si Jinping has proven to be pretty proactive in reining 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:34.200 in companies that get very large, very wealthy, very quickly. Now, 0:20:34.200 --> 0:20:36.040 whether that is to make sure the companies are not 0:20:36.080 --> 0:20:39.840 gonna balloon out of control or cause harm like, there's 0:20:40.160 --> 0:20:44.480 obviously the fear about collecting data, right, we see this 0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:47.359 this concern around the world, this idea of companies collecting 0:20:47.520 --> 0:20:51.560 enormous amounts of data about private individuals and how harmful 0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:54.360 that can be. Well, that's some of the reasoning behind 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:58.000 the regulations in China. There are others who say that 0:20:58.080 --> 0:21:02.000 perhaps this is more about a play in keeping any 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:05.560 entity from rivaling the power of the communist government in China, 0:21:06.359 --> 0:21:09.280 the idea that you don't want to create corporations so 0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:13.679 powerful that they hold sway over the government like you 0:21:13.760 --> 0:21:17.320 might in other countries. But the end result here is 0:21:17.359 --> 0:21:19.960 that a lot of companies in China, and tech companies 0:21:20.040 --> 0:21:23.159 in particular in China, have been hit with some heavy 0:21:23.200 --> 0:21:26.800 regulations this past year, and I expect that's going to continue. 0:21:27.640 --> 0:21:30.240 I also think that's going to convince more companies to 0:21:30.400 --> 0:21:33.840 follow in the footsteps of Yahoo, which pulled up stakes 0:21:33.880 --> 0:21:36.600 as far as doing business in China is concerned, I 0:21:36.600 --> 0:21:38.960 think we're gonna see more companies come to a similar 0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:43.200 conclusion that the revenues generated in China are not worth 0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:47.280 the price of doing business there. Okay, I've got a 0:21:47.320 --> 0:21:50.640 few more predictions to go through, but before we get 0:21:50.640 --> 0:22:00.600 to that, let's take another quick break. As we see 0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:04.399 countries commit to a move toward being carbon neutral or 0:22:04.760 --> 0:22:08.600 even carbon negative, I think we should also expect to 0:22:08.640 --> 0:22:11.520 see a lot of companies offer up products and services 0:22:12.000 --> 0:22:17.000 targeted at supporting those efforts. So I suspect in two 0:22:17.080 --> 0:22:21.400 we're gonna see lots of pushes to expand renewable energy capabilities, 0:22:22.160 --> 0:22:27.560 energy storage solutions, and similar implementations. I also worry about 0:22:27.600 --> 0:22:31.480 this a lot. Not because I think that renewable energy 0:22:31.520 --> 0:22:34.240 technology is a bad thing. I don't. I think it's 0:22:34.240 --> 0:22:38.520 a good thing. But the reason I worry is, once again, 0:22:39.320 --> 0:22:42.000 too many of us have this tendency to put a 0:22:42.040 --> 0:22:45.160 lot of faith in technology and then just assume that 0:22:45.320 --> 0:22:48.680 the problem has been fixed. I think that's a very 0:22:48.760 --> 0:22:52.440 dangerous mindset, and I worry about it. In fact, as 0:22:52.480 --> 0:22:55.560 a little anecdote, I remember, before it was a podcaster, 0:22:56.240 --> 0:22:59.920 I remember listening to a podcast about skepticism and critical 0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:04.879 thinking in which one of the hosts largely dismissed climate 0:23:04.960 --> 0:23:09.040 change concerns, essentially saying, we would engineer our way out 0:23:09.040 --> 0:23:12.440 of it, we would use technology to solve the problem. 0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:17.320 And I think that is an extremely dangerous response, and 0:23:17.400 --> 0:23:22.200 it ignores issues like holding people and companies accountable for 0:23:22.280 --> 0:23:27.040 how they contribute to climate change and carbon emissions. So 0:23:27.600 --> 0:23:29.680 I guess what I'm saying is that I do want 0:23:29.680 --> 0:23:32.399 to see more renewable energy solutions. I want to see 0:23:32.440 --> 0:23:36.160 a lot of that in two but I don't want 0:23:36.280 --> 0:23:39.199 us to let that serve as a smoke screen for 0:23:39.240 --> 0:23:42.000 companies and nations that are still dumping tons of carbon 0:23:42.040 --> 0:23:46.080 dioxide into the atmosphere and contributing to climate change. Like 0:23:46.800 --> 0:23:50.760 we can't just say, oh, we made more solar panels, 0:23:50.760 --> 0:23:53.520 so everything's okay. Now, we have to take a bigger 0:23:53.520 --> 0:23:57.719 picture view of this, or else we're not really solving 0:23:57.760 --> 0:23:59.600 the problem. It's kind of the issue I have with 0:24:00.800 --> 0:24:04.359 a lot of of of carbon taxing and things of 0:24:04.400 --> 0:24:08.040 that nature, and carbon offsets. I feel like a lot 0:24:08.080 --> 0:24:10.960 of that ends up just being carte blanche for companies 0:24:10.960 --> 0:24:14.159 to continue to dump enormous amounts of carbon dioxide with 0:24:14.359 --> 0:24:18.920 the intent of capturing it in some way, but that 0:24:19.000 --> 0:24:22.879 falls to other people other places. Uh, it may just 0:24:22.960 --> 0:24:27.080 mean that that becomes a bottom line expense in a 0:24:27.119 --> 0:24:30.560 company ledger and nothing is actually done about it. And 0:24:31.119 --> 0:24:34.119 the fact is that, yeah, you might call it carbon 0:24:34.240 --> 0:24:36.280 capture or whatever, but if you're not actually doing it, 0:24:36.400 --> 0:24:38.920 then all you're really doing is shifting some money around 0:24:39.600 --> 0:24:43.120 and the world just keeps getting more polluted. So that's 0:24:43.160 --> 0:24:46.640 why I get on my high horse about that. Uh. 0:24:46.800 --> 0:24:48.840 One thing that we will definitely see more of in 0:24:48.880 --> 0:24:52.919 two This is such an obvious prediction that I almost 0:24:52.920 --> 0:24:55.320