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Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on.

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Speaker 1: Next year is going to be an ugly election year

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Speaker 1: in which you can expect very little to get done.

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Speaker 1: To death going to become a fernitia political tool which

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Speaker 1: doesn't help you the party. Bloomberg Sound On Politics, Policy

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Speaker 1: and Perspective from DC's top names work. Confident at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day that the Senate is going to

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Speaker 1: put American families first heard a thirty million Americans are

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Speaker 1: expecting and waiting for us to move the ball forward

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Speaker 1: and get stuff done. And when that doesn't happen, in

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Speaker 1: his frustration, Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: You've made it to Friday and to sound on the

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Speaker 1: fastest hour in politics. I'm Emily Wilkins here with my

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Speaker 1: fellow Bloomberg Government reporter Jack Fitzpatrick. We are filling in

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Speaker 1: today for Joe Matthew. Well, in just a few minutes

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Speaker 1: we're going to speak with Congressman Mark Pocan. But first

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Speaker 1: the big news of today. It's then the big news

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Speaker 1: I think both in Wall Street and in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 1: The inflation numbers out this morning showing some of the

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Speaker 1: highest inflation that we've seen in the last thirty nine years.

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Speaker 1: President Biden did go ahead and speak on this today.

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Speaker 1: The White House kind of tried to actually downplay this

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Speaker 1: report before it came out, but President Biden said that

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Speaker 1: he understood that prices are higher now and that this

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Speaker 1: is hurting families. So I think it's uh, it really is.

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Speaker 1: It's a real bump in the road. It does affect families.

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Speaker 1: When you walk in the grocery store and you're paying

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Speaker 1: more for whatever you're purchasing, it matters, It matters to people.

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Speaker 1: And that was President Biden speaking a little bit earlier today.

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Speaker 1: Now wanted to bring in on this conversation. Wisconsin Democratic

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Speaker 1: Congressman Mark Polkan Congressman, thank you so much for joining

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Speaker 1: us today. Um, obviously, you know we're hearing President Biden

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Speaker 1: say that this is hitting families, but he's also saying

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Speaker 1: that we've hit the peak of an relation that it's

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Speaker 1: only going to get better from here. Is this message

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Speaker 1: resounding in your district? Congressman, yep, Hey, how are you

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Speaker 1: doing today? And that was a little bit I'm good.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if if you if you heard the

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Speaker 1: last minute there, but we were chatting a little bit

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Speaker 1: just about the higher inflation numbers are seen today and

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Speaker 1: President Biden's message that while it is bad, it is

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Speaker 1: going to get better, and I wanted to see how

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Speaker 1: that message is resounding with your constituents. Well, I we've

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Speaker 1: heard that from pretty much every economists we've talked to. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm a small business owner, have been for

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Speaker 1: thirty or four years, and you know I can tell you, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, we see it very directly in our small business,

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Speaker 1: just like our constituents too, when you have everything kind

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Speaker 1: of reopen at once, as things kind of did, and

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Speaker 1: you have most people, uh who didn't have any inventory,

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Speaker 1: and companies just pranking back up, especially overseas where it

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Speaker 1: appears most things going to be made these days. Uh.

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Speaker 1: What happened is there's a scarcity of items, and that

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Speaker 1: scarcity has often resulted in some of the inflation as

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Speaker 1: well as some other factors. But clearly that's something that

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, people understand is part of coming

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Speaker 1: out of COVID. And the economists have told us that

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Speaker 1: with the help of the Build Back Better Act and

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Speaker 1: time and some other efforts, we should be out of

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Speaker 1: this about you know, hopefully halfway through next year, Congressman,

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Speaker 1: I know Republicans have really tried to hit you guys

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Speaker 1: on build back better and the deficit impact that it

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Speaker 1: could have, at least in certain years. It's sort of

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Speaker 1: frontloaded in terms of spending, uh, And the implications seems

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Speaker 1: to be that could add to inflation. I would note

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Speaker 1: that economists have said that's fairly minor compared to the

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Speaker 1: supply chain issues. But I'm wondering what you make of

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Speaker 1: the CBO report today showing that if the expiring measures

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Speaker 1: in the reconciliation bill that you all are trying to

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Speaker 1: pass were all extended without separate pay for is we'd

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Speaker 1: be talking about a three trillion dollar addition to the

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Speaker 1: deficit rather than around two billion. Does that change, uh,

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Speaker 1: anybody's mind on on the inflationary impact of this bill. No,

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Speaker 1: the long term tenure ravocations are still the same. This

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Speaker 1: as a bill that is paid for by the wealthiest

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Speaker 1: and by corporations that often haven't paid their fair share,

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Speaker 1: which is completely different than how the Republicans passed the

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Speaker 1: tax break for the wealthiest in this country just a

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Speaker 1: few years ago. You know, they didn't do anything to

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Speaker 1: have a single penny of paid for, UH, and yet

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Speaker 1: you know we've done just the opposite. So you know

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Speaker 1: this will have diminative effects in the economy and the

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Speaker 1: sense of create good family supporting wages. It will help

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Speaker 1: women be able to enter the workforce, It provides assistance

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Speaker 1: to the average working family, and again, UM, we do

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Speaker 1: it in a way that UH won't have an impact.

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Speaker 1: It's paid for, and you have to look always at

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Speaker 1: the longer term, the tenure as we score things, not

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Speaker 1: any given year, because that really distorts I think reality. Congressman, obviously,

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Speaker 1: the Senate is working on that social tax and Spending

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Speaker 1: bill right now. The House passed it several weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer has said that he would like to get

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Speaker 1: this done before December, but the end of December rather,

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Speaker 1: But the time is running out. If this doesn't get

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Speaker 1: done by the end of the year, is that going

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Speaker 1: to make it that much more difficult to actually get

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Speaker 1: this bill over the finish line? You know, I've spent

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Speaker 1: for months when reporters have asked when is it going

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Speaker 1: to get done? That no one in my district asked

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Speaker 1: when what day it's happening, And they want to know

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Speaker 1: what's in the bill, right, So I think I've focused

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Speaker 1: really on that, and there are a lot of really

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Speaker 1: great provisions, from childcare to senior fair to prescription drug

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Speaker 1: pricing to the child tax breaks for forty million American families.

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Speaker 1: That's the one issue that if we don't get it done,

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Speaker 1: I think by mid January, when that next check would

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Speaker 1: go out, that people would see an impact, because otherwise

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Speaker 1: it would be continuous from what we've had happened. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, through the COVID release, but you know again

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Speaker 1: what day it happens. I wish checks you were the

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Speaker 1: best to be great to have it done soon, because

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Speaker 1: I'd love to share with the constituents what benefits are there.

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Speaker 1: But less important is the day gets done. More important

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Speaker 1: is the important provisions that are in there in that

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Speaker 1: stay in there. Well, I want to push back on

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Speaker 1: you a little bit there because there are some provisions

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Speaker 1: that are going to be expiring at the end of

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Speaker 1: this year, including that child tax credit that a lot

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Speaker 1: of families have now come to rely on that ends

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Speaker 1: with the end of December. If you cannot get the

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Speaker 1: build the so called build back better the Social Tax

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Speaker 1: and Welfare package, the big thing done, should the Congress

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Speaker 1: move on a smaller bill that would just extend that

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Speaker 1: and a couple of other important tax credits that will

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Speaker 1: otherwise expire. Yeah, and that's the one I did mention.

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Speaker 1: So what I was saying is because that check doesn't

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Speaker 1: go to mid January, we could still have a couple

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Speaker 1: more weeks to do it, and you can make it retroactive.

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Speaker 1: We do that quite often. Um, So that one, to

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Speaker 1: me isn't in crisis, and many of the other ones

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Speaker 1: are annual tax items that definitely don't have to happen

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Speaker 1: uh in the next two weeks. It's something that you

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Speaker 1: can do and still make retroactive, which is something Congress

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Speaker 1: does quite often. So again, the day it passes is

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Speaker 1: significantly less important than what actually passed. Real, real quick

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Speaker 1: follow up, and I hate to just focus on process

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Speaker 1: over substance. But does that basically mean there's a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a deadline in maybe mid January that matters

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Speaker 1: that we should be looking for. Not really, I mean again,

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Speaker 1: you know, we can do anything retroactive. You know, I

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Speaker 1: understand why I get asked this by reporters, but I

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Speaker 1: can tell you real people in my district don't ask that.

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Speaker 1: They just want to know does this mean I'm going

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Speaker 1: to pay less for childcare and have more money for

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Speaker 1: my family, as the answer hopefully will be yes. People

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Speaker 1: ask if you know they're going to be able to

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Speaker 1: pay less for description drugs, especially for people who who

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Speaker 1: all use insulin, and the answer will likely be yes.

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Speaker 1: But those are the things that I think are what

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Speaker 1: are really important. And you know, the daily kind of

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Speaker 1: dog race of everything and a worse rate of everything

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Speaker 1: that many reporters asked isn't nearly as important as that.

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Speaker 1: Make sure we make sure that those important provisions stay

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Speaker 1: in the bill. I don't know how many people necessarily

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Speaker 1: know about the debt limit, but I know it would

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Speaker 1: have been very important if this whole debt limit back

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Speaker 1: and forth had gone wrong. It sounds like a debt

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Speaker 1: limit bill is going to come back to the House,

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Speaker 1: uh sometimes probably early next week, and you guys can

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Speaker 1: clear that looks like basically a glide path. I'm curious

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Speaker 1: what you, as a Progressive Caucus member, make of this

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Speaker 1: deal to you know, you've got Senate Republicans to vote

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Speaker 1: to preemptively block themselves from filibustering. Some Democrats I've talked

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Speaker 1: to have said, you know, we could bend the Senate

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Speaker 1: rules for other important bills too. Is there a resident

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Speaker 1: here on this debt limit deal that you see? Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I wish we could figure that out, honestly,

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Speaker 1: because there are many things that I think we need

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Speaker 1: to get done for our country that you know, the

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Speaker 1: our team rules of the Senate that require sixty votes

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Speaker 1: not just do one votes make it difficult in this

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Speaker 1: particular case. You know, the debt ceiling looking the death

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Speaker 1: ceiling is really um one of the more Washington type

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Speaker 1: things when you try to explain to people back home,

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Speaker 1: because when we've authorized the expending, we have a second

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Speaker 1: attempt at it really mucking things up through lifting the

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Speaker 1: debt ceiling to then you know, put the check in

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Speaker 1: the mail, so to speak. If any real person signs

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Speaker 1: a home mortgage, you don't then decide every month whether

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Speaker 1: or not you're going to mail the check in. And

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Speaker 1: that's kind of what the federal government does with the

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Speaker 1: death seiling. So I think this is one where I'm

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Speaker 1: glad Republican leadership, um, you know, did the right thing

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Speaker 1: and make sure that we're getting you know, our responsibility

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Speaker 1: done because it's important for the full faith and credit

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Speaker 1: of the United States. However, and many other issues. I

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Speaker 1: wish they would see it that way also because that's

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Speaker 1: the way things always did operate. I mean, this is

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Speaker 1: unfortunately a pretty rough time to be in Washington because

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Speaker 1: of the divisions are so strong. Um, you know, the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party really has no leader other than a former

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Speaker 1: president and extile and uh, you know, it's it's it's

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Speaker 1: really difficult given how they seem to still, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: wait for approval from the former president rather than just

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Speaker 1: getting their jobs done while they're in Washington. Well, Congress

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Speaker 1: and Mark Pocain, thank you so much for taking some

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Speaker 1: time out of your Friday afternoon to join us and

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Speaker 1: go through, uh, just the laundry list of things that

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Speaker 1: Congress has been doing and has coming up. I mean, Jack,

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Speaker 1: this has been I know that you've particularly been following

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Speaker 1: the debt limit debate very very closely, and it seems

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Speaker 1: at this point that they are going to get it

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Speaker 1: done well before that December fifteen deadline. Yeah, this bill

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Speaker 1: essentially has a glide path, and I'm I think the

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Speaker 1: next big question is do we see agreements like this

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Speaker 1: in the future where they say we don't want to

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Speaker 1: need sixty votes in the Senate well, coming up, we

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Speaker 1: assemble the panel to discuss continue to discuss the news

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Speaker 1: of the day. I'm Emily Wilkins here with Jack Fitzpatrick.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg you sound on

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Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Jack Fitzpatrick, co

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Speaker 1: hosting today with my Bloomberg Government colleague Emily Wilkins. We're

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Speaker 1: in for Joe, who is off today. And now we

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Speaker 1: are joined by our regulars, the Bloomberg Politics contributors, Genie

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Speaker 1: she in Zano and Rick Davis. Happy to have you

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Speaker 1: guys with us now. Emily played earlier in the hour

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Speaker 1: that sound from the President discussing the severity of the

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Speaker 1: numbers we've seen on inflation. He followed up on the

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Speaker 1: Labor Department report showing a x point eight percent annual

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Speaker 1: gain in the CPI in November, the most since n two. Uh.

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Speaker 1: He did use the phrase bump in the road, and

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm curious about sort of the communication tactics by

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Speaker 1: the President on this one. Rick, I'm curious what you

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Speaker 1: make of the President's comments. He he says we're around

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Speaker 1: the peak. He expects it to go down, though he

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Speaker 1: does seek to assure people he understands how severe this issue.

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Speaker 1: How is this playing do you think just with the public, Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think initially the denial that they were

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Speaker 1: in this administration and this would include the FED where

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Speaker 1: they were talking about all this UH inflation was transitory,

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Speaker 1: really left out the American public, right it was it

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Speaker 1: was impacting people, and and they were just not sounding

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Speaker 1: very empathetic. This is a this is a full change, right,

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Speaker 1: even the fetists said, hey, it's not we're not talking

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Speaker 1: transitory anymore. Uh and and Biden is obviously getting into

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Speaker 1: the game of saying, hey, we know the is affecting

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Speaker 1: real people. So this is the first we've seen this

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Speaker 1: administration really start to empathize a little bit with people

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Speaker 1: who are paying the price of inflation. That said, I mean, like,

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Speaker 1: why in the world would you create the expectation that

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Speaker 1: it's peaking, which means you're now under the gun to

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Speaker 1: have it go down the next time, you know, this

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Speaker 1: report the CPI comes out, And when we look at

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Speaker 1: others who we know, Larry Summers has said, this is

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Speaker 1: UH inflation. It's going to last around a couple of years,

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Speaker 1: maybe more UH and and it's going to be much

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Speaker 1: more difficult to get rid of. And so if he's

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Speaker 1: even only partially right, Biden is setting himself up for

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Speaker 1: failure when he's finally starting to empathize with the American

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Speaker 1: public over the the situation around inflation. So I think

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Speaker 1: he's putting himself right back in another box that could

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Speaker 1: be very tenuous in a political, uh election year. Right,

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Speaker 1: if you're gonna make predictions, they had better be right

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Speaker 1: if you're the president giving a speech. Um. I'm curious, again,

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Speaker 1: as I mentioned in the interview with the congressman, I

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Speaker 1: don't want to give the impression and that we think

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Speaker 1: all of the inflation comes from the bills we're seeing

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Speaker 1: Congress work on, but that has kind of dominated the

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Speaker 1: discussions around the main reconciliation bill that Democrats are trying

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Speaker 1: to pass. Genie, I'm curious, looking at this six point

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Speaker 1: eight percent number, how does that work its way into

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Speaker 1: the mind of Joe Mansion. What What is his response

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Speaker 1: going to be. I think his response is going to

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Speaker 1: remain what it has been, which is that they are

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Speaker 1: not under the gun to pass this bill before Christmas, certainly,

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Speaker 1: and he's very clear on areas in which he would

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Speaker 1: like the bill to be amended and changed, and he's

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Speaker 1: been very clear that the time frame can be extended.

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Speaker 1: So I think this is just adding more fuel to

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Speaker 1: his fire that they need to take another look at this.

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Speaker 1: And I would say when I heard Joe Biden say

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Speaker 1: today about reaching the peak, I cringed because the signs

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Speaker 1: are opposite. You look at the supply chain, you look

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Speaker 1: at the labor shortage, and all I could picture was

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Speaker 1: going into two the amount of campaign commercials that Republicans

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Speaker 1: could use against him with that very clip, if it

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Speaker 1: indeed hasn't peaked, and we should reiterate that it doesn't

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Speaker 1: even have to be the actual number. It's the amount

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Speaker 1: of pain that people are feeling that's gonna come back

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Speaker 1: to haunt this administration. So I think they have to

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Speaker 1: be very careful with this messaging about this is a peak,

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Speaker 1: it's a bump in the road. We're on, you know,

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Speaker 1: the right side of this at this point, because that

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Speaker 1: is very likely not going to be the case. So, Genie,

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Speaker 1: I know that you've been saying this now for all along,

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Speaker 1: but it seems now with these numbers out today, it

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Speaker 1: is the chances that that social tax uh and spending

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Speaker 1: bill get past this year. They just went from from

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Speaker 1: slim to almost none. And and I'm in New York, Emily,

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Speaker 1: so Chuck Schumer hopefully isn't going to have my head

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Speaker 1: on this. But I can't imagine anyway that they push

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Speaker 1: this through with this kind of inflation numbers. You know,

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Speaker 1: they don't have to do it. They've successes that they

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Speaker 1: could talk about. They can revisit this in the new year.

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Speaker 1: They could take some steps. I mean you would you

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Speaker 1: were just talking about this three trillion dollar add to

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Speaker 1: the deficit, and that's something they need to address. So

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Speaker 1: I don't see how this happens this year, And if

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Speaker 1: it happened this year, it's probably something that would make

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Speaker 1: it a really, really hard for some of these Democrats

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Speaker 1: running in moderate districts. You know, Ricky, I know we've

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Speaker 1: talked so much between time inflation with the so called

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Speaker 1: build back better, but I'm wondering, are there other things

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Speaker 1: that Congress can do to help ease some of this

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Speaker 1: pain from inflation, things with supply chain, other other points

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Speaker 1: where they can sort of alleviate some of the pressure

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Speaker 1: Americans are feeling. Yeah, I mean, this is the pitch

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Speaker 1: that the Biden administration started to roll out this week.

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Speaker 1: UM wanted to take pressure off of spending so that

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Speaker 1: they can continue to spend and and and get past

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Speaker 1: the build back Better plan, but also to try and

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Speaker 1: focus on issues that they actually may have a bigger

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Speaker 1: impact on, like the supply chain. Gino Raimondo, Secretary of

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Speaker 1: Commerce formerly governor of Rhode Island, really went out hard

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Speaker 1: and said, hey, look, part of what's driving inflation isn't

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Speaker 1: just the spending, right, Let's not. Let's spending can be

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Speaker 1: good and it's driving the economy, but but we've got

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Speaker 1: to fix the supply chain backups because that puts pressure

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Speaker 1: on spending. Also, when you when you can't find product

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Speaker 1: you need, when when when stores can't put product on

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Speaker 1: the shelf, it creates that pressure. So I definitely think

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Speaker 1: that this is something they think they can do uh

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Speaker 1: and still be able to convince people they need that

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Speaker 1: build back Better plan. Well, coming up, we're going to

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Speaker 1: talk to Congressman French Hill, Republican from Arkansas, with a

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Speaker 1: lot of experience in banking and financial services, a good

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Speaker 1: person to talk to economy with. I'm Jack Fitzpatrick. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Broadcasting live from our Nation's Capital, Bloomberg to

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Speaker 1: New York, Bloomberg eleven Frio to Boston, Bloomberg one oh

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Speaker 1: six one do San Francisco, Bloomberg nine six te to

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Speaker 1: the Country, Serious XM General one nineteen and around the globe,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg seld On with Joe Matthew. Today's inflation before

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Speaker 1: is continuing to shake up debate in Congress. We're going

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Speaker 1: to be getting the latest with Arkansas Republican Congressman french

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Speaker 1: Hill here in just a minute. I'm Emily Wilkins here

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Speaker 1: with my co host Jack Fitzpatrick. We're here now with

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Speaker 1: Arkansas Republican Congressman french Hill, a member of the Finance

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Speaker 1: Committee and also someone who definitely has some thoughts. I know,

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Speaker 1: Congressman on today's numbers and news about inflation, and Congressman,

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Speaker 1: I know that we've tied so much of this conversation

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Speaker 1: to the so called build back better that social spending

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Speaker 1: and tax plan, but I wanted to just get away

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Speaker 1: from that for just a minute and see what you

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Speaker 1: think Congress needs to do to address this inflation, anything

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Speaker 1: that they need to actually actively do rather than not

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Speaker 1: do well. I think there are three components to why

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Speaker 1: we're seeing this inflation in length, thanks for having me on.

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Speaker 1: First that classic definition of too much money chasing too

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Speaker 1: few goods. That classic definition is fueled by both fiscal policy,

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Speaker 1: which is while the Build Back Better Bill is relevant,

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Speaker 1: and secondly to the super accommodative monetary policy that we've

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Speaker 1: had uh intensively since the pandemic, but effectively since the

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Speaker 1: financial crisis. We've had very low rates, almost zero rates,

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Speaker 1: and we've been buying treasury securities an agencies securities a

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty billion dollars a month. So first is,

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Speaker 1: we do need to begin to taper monetary policy, and

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Speaker 1: I would argue we should not be spending more fiscal

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Speaker 1: policy providing more fiscal stimulus. Third thing, anything that we

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Speaker 1: can do to help the supply chain become untangled is important.

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Speaker 1: And recently, Congress just last week, on about partisan basis,

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Speaker 1: passed the bill that will assist in cargo shipping in

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Speaker 1: order to facilitate that in a better way. For example,

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Speaker 1: So Congressman, I am I'm confused, maybe not confused, but

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Speaker 1: I want you to kind of drill down on the

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Speaker 1: Republican uh line of attack on this reconciliation bill and

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Speaker 1: sort of educate me why the fiscal side right now

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Speaker 1: is so important to you. I'm looking at the latest

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Speaker 1: uh CBO numbers on the the deficit impact of the

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Speaker 1: Build Back Better Bill. You know, in the first year

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Speaker 1: of enactment, it would add about a hundred fifty five

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Speaker 1: billion to the deficit. Even if you assume extensions of

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Speaker 1: expiring policies. The next year it adds two sixty billion.

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Speaker 1: These are not numbers that are close to zero, but

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Speaker 1: they don't seemed to be numbers that are that big

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Speaker 1: in the context of a twenty plus trillion dollar economy

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Speaker 1: and inflation. Why do we hear Republicans talk so much

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Speaker 1: about Build Back Better in the context of these inflation

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Speaker 1: numbers in the near term. Well, I think it's I

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Speaker 1: think it's in the context that we are running a

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Speaker 1: regular budget deficit that's very high from our four and

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Speaker 1: a half trillion that we spent annually, and we've had

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Speaker 1: three large bills proposed this year one point nine billion

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Speaker 1: not paid for in additional COVID relief, when we already

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Speaker 1: had a trillion unspent that was appropriated in by the Congress.

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Speaker 1: In February. Then the Infrastructure Bill, which was supposed to

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Speaker 1: be a paid for bill, which only about half of

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Speaker 1: it over its ten year period was paid for. Now

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Speaker 1: we come to build back better, which has a price

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Speaker 1: tag listed that you're requoting from of one point seven

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Speaker 1: five billion, But today's CBO confirmed it would add three

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Speaker 1: trillion dollars to the AT over the next ten years

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Speaker 1: and is actually going to run at five trillion dollars,

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Speaker 1: not one point seven five And their logic was look,

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Speaker 1: as President Reagan warned us, there's nothing so permanent as

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Speaker 1: a temporary government program, and so CBO in that analysis

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Speaker 1: assumes that these programs are made permanent and that when

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Speaker 1: you don't pay for it. Whether you're talking to Larry

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Speaker 1: Summer's Democratic Treasury secretary or Jason Furman, Democratic economist, these

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Speaker 1: are inflationary fiscal stimulus actions. Well, I certainly take your

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Speaker 1: point on the anticipation that these would be extended. Democrats

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Speaker 1: want to do that. On the monetary side, what does

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Speaker 1: today's news say about the FEDS UH stands at its

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Speaker 1: current stance on tapering, should they have been acting more quickly?

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Speaker 1: Do you have complaints? What do you think about the

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Speaker 1: monetary side on today's news. Yeah, such a good, good question,

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Speaker 1: And this goes back to Chairman J pal recently announced

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Speaker 1: that he would be reappointed to Congress two weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: that we needed to drop the word transitory about inflation,

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Speaker 1: something I've been talking about for the better part of

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Speaker 1: a year. That there was a high risk that it

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Speaker 1: wasn't transitory meeting, it wasn't tied purely to the supply

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Speaker 1: chain disruption. So I would have started tapering early had

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Speaker 1: I been a voting member of the Open Market Committee.

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Speaker 1: And one reason for that is look out what the

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Speaker 1: reverse repurchase agreements have been in the marketplace over the summer.

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Speaker 1: They've grown and grown, which means I think there's way

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Speaker 1: too much liquidity out in the in the system, so

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Speaker 1: I would have begun tapering a bit sooner. I think

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Speaker 1: the Fed next week will be analyzing their forecast for inflation. Ino.

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Speaker 1: We may have a flat to slightly higher commodity set

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Speaker 1: of prices, say in the oil and gas production, but

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Speaker 1: I believe that residential real estate, for example, is way

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Speaker 1: understated in this year's CPI and could continue year on

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Speaker 1: year growth that pushes the CPI up in the first

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Speaker 1: half it next year. Congressman, we're also getting some news

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Speaker 1: now that on Tuesday you will be taking a vote

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Speaker 1: on a piece of legislation that would create a special

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Speaker 1: envoy to combat Islamophobia. And this comes after one of

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Speaker 1: your colleagues, Congressman Lauren Bobert, compared a Muslim member of

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Speaker 1: Congress to a suicide bomber. Now, I don't believe this

432
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 1: legislation actually touches on Congresswoman Bobert at all. She's not included.

433
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,199
Speaker 1: It's just creating a special envoy. Congressman, will you be

434
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 1: supporting this legislation? You're you're breaking news to me today.

435
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,719
Speaker 1: I haven't seen it or read it. I don't know

436
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:39,120
Speaker 1: that we need a special envoy for islamaphobia. We need

437
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 1: to fill the special envoy jobs that are vacant now

438
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,680
Speaker 1: at the State Department working on key issues. Uh, there's

439
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 1: no doubt about that. For example, we need a permanent,

440
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 1: uh special envoid confirmed by the Senate for negotiations. Congressman,

441
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 1: do you think that islamophobia Do you think that islamophobia, though,

442
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: is an issue? Based on some of the remarks that

443
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 1: we've heard from your call leaks, I listen, I listened

444
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 1: to a lot of terrible rhetoric from both the left

445
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: and the right. Annie submitted from the left and smart

446
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 1: Alec comments that could be considered Annie Muslim on the right.

447
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:20,200
Speaker 1: Occasionally both are bad. Both should be condemned. We shouldn't

448
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 1: tolerate that people who are elected public office ought to

449
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: be able to speak in a civil tone. We have

450
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: that kind of rhetoric. Congressman french thank you so much

451
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 1: for taking the time too. I see that was Congressman

452
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 1: french Hill. Coming up, we reassemble the panel, get into

453
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 1: some of the other topics making news outside of Washington today.

454
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:46,400
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Sound On with

455
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:52,679
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Big week coming up next

456
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 1: week for lawmakers, as Democrats try to wrap up work

457
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 1: on a debt limit measure, and as we have been discussing,

458
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 1: our Democrats want to make progress on their main social

459
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 1: tax and spending Build Back Better Reconciliation bill, a bill

460
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: of many titles. But as we have heard from Congressman

461
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 1: Pocn earlier today and as a Congressman Gottheimer said yesterday,

462
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 1: they don't feel that there's a deadline. Maybe even the

463
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 1: child tax credit expires at the end of the year,

464
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 1: but they work through it, they make it retroactive. This

465
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 1: could be a January thing rather than a December thing.

466
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 1: This was also the topic of conversation today because of

467
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 1: a Congressional Budget Office score requested by Republicans who said, Okay,

468
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 1: Democrats call this a one point seven trillion dollar one

469
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: point seven five trillion dollar bill or so, but they've

470
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 1: used a bunch of gimmicks to have many provisions, including

471
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 1: the child tax credit expire. Obviously Democrats do want to

472
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 1: re up those provisions. So Republicans say, what is the

473
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 1: real cost? What is the real gope? And the CBO says,

474
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,439
Speaker 1: if all of them were extended through a decade and

475
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 1: there's no additional pay force, we're looking at a three

476
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 1: trillion dollar addition to the deficit over ten years, rather

477
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 1: than the original score of the actual bill of two billion.

478
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 1: So Senator Graham is talking about this, he has a

479
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 1: number of things to say, Emily, what do you make

480
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,360
Speaker 1: of this CBO score? Well, I just wanted to see

481
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 1: if we can clarify something real quick here, because we've

482
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 1: been telling listeners on this show correctly that there is

483
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: a good chance that Republicans could take the House next year,

484
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: so Republicans are controlling at least one chamber, maybe two.

485
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 1: They could take the Senate. I mean, how likely is

486
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 1: it that some of these programs are actually going to

487
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 1: get extended? That is going to be really tough. I

488
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,640
Speaker 1: am getting ahead of myself now, but I'm fascinated by

489
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 1: December because not only does this reconciliation bill aim to

490
00:27:56,280 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 1: extend this child tax credit to December two, but as

491
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 1: we've been reporting, their aiming to kick the debt limit

492
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 1: to sometime after the mid terms. Um, if Republicans take

493
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,399
Speaker 1: either chamber, do we see Democrats then have to rush

494
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 1: to do a reconciliation bill to address child tax credit,

495
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 1: debt limit, all the things they want to do at

496
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 1: the last minute before seeding power in at least one

497
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 1: chamber to Republicans. I think that's a key question for them. Uh.

498
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,120
Speaker 1: And it doesn't sound like they expect much help from

499
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 1: Republicans on the child tax credit. Uh. And that's not

500
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 1: surprising because there's been so much pushback from Republicans on

501
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 1: the facets of this reconciliation bill. So following this number,

502
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 1: that again is a projection, it's not the actual bill

503
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 1: we're looking at, but a projection of what could happen

504
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 1: if they extend all of these programs that number a

505
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 1: lot from republic are going to hear that from Republicans

506
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 1: quite a bit. Here is what Senator Lindsey Graham, the

507
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 1: top Republican on the Budget Committee, had to say about

508
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 1: the reality of ex stending these provisions. The original bill

509
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 1: was scored at one point seven five treeon dollars in cost.

510
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: And the way they got that number is they took

511
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 1: seventeen new programs that would be created created by Bill

512
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 1: back better, and a sunseted the programs one year, two years,

513
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 1: three years. If you believe these programs go away after one,

514
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 1: two or three years, you shouldn't have a driver's license.

515
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 1: That's a good line. You shouldn't have a driver's license

516
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 1: if you believe that. Um, Genie, I've got to ask

517
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 1: you about this because you have been our resident skeptic

518
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 1: of Democrats getting their top bills done. And let's say

519
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 1: they do get this reconciliation bill done and create these

520
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 1: programs and extend a little bit the child tax credit,

521
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 1: do they actually manage as Republicans evidently think they will,

522
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,719
Speaker 1: to extend all of them what happens in the future.

523
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 1: Do do we actually see everything extended without pay for

524
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 1: us or what? What? What should we expect? Yeah, and

525
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 1: I have been a skeptic on the time and the size.

526
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 1: I have always said, I think it's going to get

527
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 1: done at the rate about one point five trillion, So

528
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,280
Speaker 1: you know, I do think it gets done, and I

529
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 1: do think it is helpful to the economy, and I

530
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 1: think it gets done in the new year. In terms

531
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 1: of this uh CBO score, I have to agree with

532
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden when they say it fails

533
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 1: to take into account the offsetting that's going to occur

534
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 1: with new revenue and new savings, and that is a

535
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 1: major issue. Sure Republicans are going to use this number

536
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 1: going into the midterms. Democrats are going to have to

537
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 1: counter by letting people know the reality of this was

538
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: that they have new revenues coming in, they have savings,

539
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 1: and they were going to offset. That was always the plan.

540
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 1: So I had a bit of uh, you know, empathy

541
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 1: for Chuck Schumer when he called this a fake CBO

542
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 1: score For that reason, Rick, I also wanted to come

543
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 1: to you a little bit. I mean, let's say that

544
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 1: we are in. Republicans did really well in the mid terms.

545
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 1: We have a speaker, Kevin McCarthy, and he is facing

546
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 1: the expiration of some of these programs. I mean, what

547
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 1: what is going to be the thought process here on

548
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: whether these programs wind up expiring or not. I mean,

549
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 1: is Lindsay Graham correct that there's sort of any chance, uh,

550
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 1: that that they wind up expiring? Absolutely? I mean, this

551
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 1: is the problem with reconciliation, right. It's not a process

552
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 1: where you're supposed to legislate for legislation should go through

553
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: committees that should be marked up and before it becomes

554
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 1: a law that therefore doesn't need to be re upped

555
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 1: every year or during expiring periods. You you actually have

556
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 1: some confidence that you know what's going to be funded

557
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 1: every year when you go through reconciliation. It's just as

558
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: easy to change reconciliation every year as it is to

559
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: get it. So you're you're you're cheating the system by saying, oh,

560
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 1: we're gonna bypass all those rules, We're gonna bypass all

561
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 1: that procedure. We're just going to throw the stuff into reconciliation.

562
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 1: We're gonna pay for with temporary revenue raising. This is

563
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 1: not permanent revenue raising. This is temporary because it's in

564
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 1: a reconciliation bill, meaning, as you point out, next year,

565
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: not December, but in January. If everyone Republicans do take

566
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 1: control of the House of Representatives. If they do, they

567
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 1: could change of this stuff. It doesn't even have to

568
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 1: be expiring provisions. It can be the entire bill because

569
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: under reconciliation you could change everything within one year. Well,

570
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 1: one other major story we need to touch on today,

571
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 1: of course, was the Supreme Court decision to leave in

572
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 1: place Texas ban on abortion after about six weeks of pregnancy,

573
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 1: refusing to block that law while letting clinics and doctors

574
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 1: press part of a legal challenge at a lower court.

575
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: So this is not the end of the legal story

576
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: on this, but a significant decision that really steeply divided

577
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 1: the liberal and conservative justices on the courts. Um genie,

578
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: I'm curious what first your initial thoughts on today's news, uh,

579
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 1: and in particular following up on that, what uh, what

580
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 1: happens next? How significant is today's decision by the Supreme

581
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 1: Court to not step in in Texas. I think it

582
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 1: is critically important. You know, this is in the wake

583
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 1: of their hearing the other week of the Mississippi challenge,

584
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 1: And of course I was reading very very carefully Chief

585
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 1: Justice John Roberts partial descent and his joining with the

586
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 1: liberals on this, and I am empathetic to his concern

587
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 1: that the goal of this law was to strip the

588
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: Supreme Court's authority, and by allowing this decision to stand today,

589
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 1: they have essentially allowed that to happen. I mean, he

590
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 1: said in part that you are stripping the courts authority.

591
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 1: They have already decided row and they are now denying

592
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 1: that right to be protected. So I think his is

593
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: a very institutional list approach, and I think it's critically

594
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: important that the Court retains its legitimacy and very hard

595
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 1: to do in the wake of these kinds of decisions.

596
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 1: And of course it could be that we see other states,

597
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 1: whether it's in gun rights or other areas, choose this path,

598
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,319
Speaker 1: and what would the Supreme Court say then? So I

599
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 1: think it's a dangerous decision, although we may see them

600
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: after this comes up from the lower courts later change

601
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:29,320
Speaker 1: their mind. Another big story in Washington this week, although

602
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 1: of course a somber one, was the passing of former

603
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 1: Senator Bob Dole. Rick, I actually understand that that you

604
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 1: were at the funeral today, and I'm wondering if you

605
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 1: can just sort of talk about what the what the

606
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 1: sense of it was, what people were saying, what the

607
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 1: vibe of of it was. Yeah, it was pretty somber.

608
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 1: I mean, there was a really amazing crowd at the

609
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 1: National Cathedral to celebrate uh Bob Dole's life and and

610
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:02,959
Speaker 1: say goodbye UM to presidents President Biden, President Clinton, were there,

611
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 1: the joint chiefs of staff, UH, what seemed like almost

612
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,439
Speaker 1: the entire United States Senate, a chamber that Bob Bill

613
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 1: managed UH and and really held in great reverence. I

614
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 1: would say that the comments at the uh funeral by

615
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 1: his fellow Senators Pat Roberts from Kansas and Tom Dashall

616
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 1: from South Dakota were particularly uh touching about their experience

617
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: with him and and what he meant to the chamber.

618
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 1: And I think it's a great reminder, especially those senators

619
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:41,320
Speaker 1: who attended the event and the other official Washington types

620
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: cabinet members, to remember that there were people in a

621
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:49,799
Speaker 1: time when compromise was not a dirty word, UH, and

622
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 1: that that we could actually get things done in the

623
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 1: normal course of events. UH. In the Senate between Republicans

624
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 1: and Democrats, and you kind of hope that there's just

625
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 1: this little bit, colonel that gets into the the psyche

626
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,839
Speaker 1: of these officeholders, that um, maybe they maybe they can

627
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 1: return to, at least partially a better time. And that

628
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 1: certainly was the theme of today's uh funeral, and I

629
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 1: think Bob Dole would have been very proud of that message.

630
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: Right Listening, in particular to the President's comments seemed almost

631
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 1: to be eulogizing a different time, in different generation, rather

632
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 1: than just one person in Bob Dole. Thank you so much,

633
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:31,320
Speaker 1: Rick Davis, great comments there, Jeannie she and Zano. Thanks

634
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 1: again to Mark Polkan and French Hill, the congressman who

635
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:37,360
Speaker 1: joined us earlier today, and my co host Emily Wilkins

636
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Government. I'm Jack Fitzpatrick. This is Bloomberg