Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Leie.
Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
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Speaker 1: New York City. Good morning to you Wall on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg TV. I'm really happy to
Speaker 1: say that the National Economic Councils Director Larry Cutlow joins
Speaker 1: us now in reaction to the payrolls report. Larry always
Speaker 1: great to get your thoughts on payrolls Thursday this time around,
Speaker 1: and I think everyone just wants the initial reaction to
Speaker 1: the job's report and what it means for the next
Speaker 1: fiscal package. How did these numbers shape the fiscal effort
Speaker 1: in Washington over the next several weeks. Well, look, first
Speaker 1: of all, it's as spectacular number and it helps the
Speaker 1: overall situation enormously, So you know, that's really the key point.
Speaker 1: We've created a lot of jobs in the last couple
Speaker 1: of months, and the trends continue. I want to say
Speaker 1: one thing I was listening to that earlier conversation. I
Speaker 1: don't think people understand that relationship. The rescue package that
Speaker 1: the President led with bipartisan support and Congress, and the
Speaker 1: p p P that Secretary manution Uh fostered and implemented.
Speaker 1: It's the temporary layoffs, John, it's the furloughs that are
Speaker 1: coming down. We kept people connected to their employers. Okay,
Speaker 1: they did receive assistance, but we kept them connected so
Speaker 1: that as the economy reopened and the businesses reopened, roughly
Speaker 1: of small business reopened. So we saw it again today.
Speaker 1: I mean, sixty three and a half percent of unemployed
Speaker 1: now are temporary workers. That number was seventy and was
Speaker 1: seven point seven million. I don't see why that trend
Speaker 1: can continue. That's the point making I don't. I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: It's like an intellectual disconnect why that trend can continue.
Speaker 1: A lot of temporary layer us will go back to work.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people believe you can't extra
Speaker 1: polay this out too far because we've had to slow
Speaker 1: down or reverse the reopenings elsewhere, Larry, and for that reason,
Speaker 1: many people think more help is needed. This is what
Speaker 1: the President had to say in the last twenty four
Speaker 1: hours when he was asked about more direct payments for individuals.
Speaker 1: He said, I support it, but it has to be
Speaker 1: done properly, and I support actually larger numbers than the Democrats.
Speaker 1: So that doesn't sound like a consideration anymore. It sounds
Speaker 1: like the President's made a decision. It's not a fair characterization.
Speaker 1: Larry Well, No, I don't think final decision has been
Speaker 1: made at all. Uh. President has always favored that, but
Speaker 1: he wants it to be done in a very smart way,
Speaker 1: in in a targeted way. So I think the shape
Speaker 1: of any kind of package is still very much up
Speaker 1: in the air. Look, he has emphasized a number of
Speaker 1: programs now again, negotiations won't formally begin until after the
Speaker 1: recess to life worth recess. He's talked about payroll tax cut.
Speaker 1: He's talked about reemployment benefits and bonuses because we don't
Speaker 1: like the six hundred dollars plus up on unemployment. It's
Speaker 1: a disincentive to work. He's talked about helping the restaurant industry,
Speaker 1: the tourism ministry, the entertainment industry with better business write offs.
Speaker 1: He's talked about capital gains, He's talked about investment rite offs.
Speaker 1: There's still a very large package here, and you know,
Speaker 1: we won't know until we go into these negotiations. So
Speaker 1: he's right, Uh, everything's on the table. Where many things
Speaker 1: are on the table. It's just a question of shaping
Speaker 1: it and do it smart. I thought the original rescue
Speaker 1: package was very smart. I don't know if everything has
Speaker 1: to apply all over again, we'll see. We assess the economy,
Speaker 1: that's the key point. Well, let's assess the dates up.
Speaker 1: What's the evidence of the enhanced unemployment benefits of being
Speaker 1: a disincentive through sense of work? Well, right now, I
Speaker 1: can only give you anecdotal evidence. I hear this a
Speaker 1: lot of his Here this secretary minution, here's this um
Speaker 1: Jane Scalia at labor. So many business people have said
Speaker 1: to us, particularly the smaller business, particularly some sense the
Speaker 1: most vulnerable to the pandemic, the restaurants, the small stores
Speaker 1: and shops. They can't hire people back because the unemployment
Speaker 1: benefits are very generous. Now, I happen to think the
Speaker 1: generous unemployment package was probably a good thing at the
Speaker 1: beginning of this pandemic when we put it, when we
Speaker 1: put it on the table in mid March and late March. Okay,
Speaker 1: working with the p p P program pay or protection.
Speaker 1: I think the unemployment compensation could be a good thing.
Speaker 1: But now that moment has passed, we're moving into the
Speaker 1: reopening and as these numbers shows spectacular job numbers, people
Speaker 1: are starting to move back. They want to go to work.
Speaker 1: So I think we have to look at this a
Speaker 1: little differently now, and I think reemployment benefits probably will
Speaker 1: help fill the bill, and those two have to be
Speaker 1: targeted to the right people who maybe we're having trouble
Speaker 1: getting a job or competing with the unemployment at six
Speaker 1: It will be a better story for the small businesses.
Speaker 1: It will be more manageable. They'll be able to afford people.
Speaker 1: That's the key point, Larry. Unfortunately, you were the team
Speaker 1: have only given me another sixty seconds for this interview,
Speaker 1: which is unfortunate because I have so much to cover
Speaker 1: with you. So let me get to China. A caught
Speaker 1: up with Ambassador Bolton in the last twenty four hours
Speaker 1: in the Wall Street Journal. In the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: he referred to Secretary Manuchin as a panda hugger. You
Speaker 1: came off lightly. You were called a free trader, but
Speaker 1: he said there is an intellectually fractured approach to fit
Speaker 1: all things China. He said that the president was leaning
Speaker 1: on President g to get the best possible outcome, to
Speaker 1: lean on States and by soybeans, etcetera, to help him
Speaker 1: win an election. They were his words that the president
Speaker 1: of the United States was leaning on a foreign leader
Speaker 1: to help win the election. Now, Larry, my question is,
Speaker 1: at the moment with Hong Kongan, the news and the
Speaker 1: likes of Secretary Pompeio, go and get that, I'm making
Speaker 1: a lot of noise about how hot you will be
Speaker 1: on China. How can we take that seriously? When a
Speaker 1: former employee of this administration is gona around saying the
Speaker 1: older president wants is the president she to help him
Speaker 1: win the next election, Well, I'll just say I haven't
Speaker 1: read Mrs Bolton's book. Uh. Many people who were at
Speaker 1: that dinner in Japan completely disagree and say that that
Speaker 1: was an unfactual remark. Okay, that's what I know. Uh,
Speaker 1: China is a huge problem. We are engaging with them
Speaker 1: on trade, but what they are doing in Hong Kong
Speaker 1: as well as other problems, becomes a larger and larger
Speaker 1: difficulty in our relations. As Secretary Pompeio and National Security
Speaker 1: Advisor O'Brien have said time and time again, I want
Speaker 1: to pivot to a much better story. July one, the
Speaker 1: U s m c A trade deal went into place.
Speaker 1: That is a hugely important, pro growth, job creating trade
Speaker 1: deal which will help agg worker and farmers and manufacturers
Speaker 1: and the blue collar boom can re arise. We've got
Speaker 1: currency stability, We've got intellectual property protections. It's a tremendous deal.
Speaker 1: I don't know why it doesn't get more coverage. The
Speaker 1: leaders are probably gonna come here next week to celebrate
Speaker 1: it with President Trump. U s m c A is
Speaker 1: a solid winner and it will be pro growth and
Speaker 1: by the bye it will add to growth next year after.
Speaker 1: I think we have a strong second half and that's
Speaker 1: looking forward and I don't see anything reasons block that.
Speaker 1: As long as people know, and I'll end with this, John,
Speaker 1: people know they must exercise best practices. Don't forget the guidelines. Okay,
Speaker 1: the masks, the distancing, the testing, and the personal hygiene
Speaker 1: are important to mitigate this higher flashpoint in the Southwest.
Speaker 1: It's not necessarily nationwide. It's a few states in the Southwest.
Speaker 1: Use those mitigation best practices and we will get out
Speaker 1: of that more as and we will grow this economy
Speaker 1: and spectacular fashion. Larry, I'm not sure how we got
Speaker 1: from leaning on foreign leaders to wearing a mask, but
Speaker 1: I'm pleased that is the administration's approach at the moment
Speaker 1: to where a mask. Larry. I would talk about U S.
Speaker 1: M c A, but unfortunately, because of your team, I've
Speaker 1: got to cut this interview short and hopefully we can
Speaker 1: pick up where we end this another time in the
Speaker 1: next couple of weeks. Larry, count love that National Economic
Speaker 1: Council Director. Right now, we have to look systemically at
Speaker 1: the systematic, multi strategy approach of black rock, and we
Speaker 1: can do that with Jeffrey Rosenberg. He joins us now
Speaker 1: hugely prodigious on the dynamics of the market and how
Speaker 1: it folds back into fixed income. Jeff, let me get
Speaker 1: out front of your next July note. What is the
Speaker 1: distinction right now in bond dynamics that has your attention
Speaker 1: well on the on the bond dynamic side, away from
Speaker 1: the payroll report. You know, it's it's really about yesterday's news,
Speaker 1: and it's about the discussion around yield curve control or
Speaker 1: what the FED wants to call it. Yield curve targeting
Speaker 1: because the front end of the yield curve is pinned
Speaker 1: at zero. There's no doubt about that. The uncertainty in
Speaker 1: the bond market is about the shape of the yield
Speaker 1: curve as you move further out in the maturity. That's
Speaker 1: really where monetary policy and the uncertainty is centered, because
Speaker 1: you have these two great unprecedented pressures on that curve.
Speaker 1: On the one side, the fiscal policy that Jonathan just
Speaker 1: talked about, UH support for the economy, for financial markets
Speaker 1: is being funded in the treasury market, and it is
Speaker 1: an historic expansion in the amount of supply of debt.
Speaker 1: On the other side is the FED that it's set
Speaker 1: up till now for markets functioning. They're going to expand
Speaker 1: the balance sheet to maintain that market functioning. So we're
Speaker 1: going to start to pivot away from that market functioning
Speaker 1: conversation to a conversation around chewy, around l steps, around
Speaker 1: further accommodation, and so in the bond market, that's where
Speaker 1: all the uncertainty lies. It's about the ship in the curve,
Speaker 1: about yield curve targeting. When the market moves, you do
Speaker 1: more data checks for your futures. Up thirty seven Dow
Speaker 1: futures up. It's a round number, so I'll mention it
Speaker 1: four zero zero up, four hundred points right up, buttressed
Speaker 1: on twenty six thousand on the DALLA. The VIX comes
Speaker 1: in a big stick one point six six points twenty
Speaker 1: six point nine six on the VIX. Jeff Rosenberg's bond
Speaker 1: markets asleep UH to year yield point one six percent.
Speaker 1: Jeff doesn't care about the ten year or the thirty year.
Speaker 1: I look, Jeff Rosenberg at the bond dynamics here and
Speaker 1: come on, equity market up looking out to two thousand
Speaker 1: twenty one. Is there a risk here that the bond
Speaker 1: market looks out to two thousand twenty one and all
Speaker 1: of a sudden it's yield up, price lower. Possibly. You know,
Speaker 1: we're talking about the back end of the curve, and
Speaker 1: that's what you know where you're just highlighting there's no
Speaker 1: movement in the front end of the curve because that's
Speaker 1: all pinned. You know, it is really going to be
Speaker 1: about whether or not we've had success on the virus
Speaker 1: and the combination of fiscal and monetary policy getting success
Speaker 1: around inflation expectations. Very hard to see that today at
Speaker 1: historical levels of inflation and inflation expectations. But if you're
Speaker 1: going to have a scenario where you could have the
Speaker 1: bond market up and the equity market up, getting back
Speaker 1: to a little bit of inflation could be a positive.
Speaker 1: It's a tricky conversation because there could be a slippery
Speaker 1: slope from a little bit of inflation being good to
Speaker 1: a little bit of inflation being uh, not good. And
Speaker 1: so that's going to be that further out one dynamic,
Speaker 1: certainly not the dynamic today in terms of inflation and
Speaker 1: inflation fears. But remember this is the goal fighting inflation
Speaker 1: from below, meaning we have too little inflation. So if
Speaker 1: there's good to be higher interest rates, it might be
Speaker 1: welcomed by the Fed in a little bit steeper of
Speaker 1: a curve pricing in a little bit higher inflation expectation. Jeff,
Speaker 1: In a day like today, we're getting all this data
Speaker 1: with respect to the US labor market, would you trade
Speaker 1: on any of it? You know? I think that Mike
Speaker 1: McKee had the framing of the data exactly right, that
Speaker 1: this is old news. It's good news, but it's news
Speaker 1: that it was already reflected in prices and we've moved
Speaker 1: beyond the kind of early June market to in a
Speaker 1: high frequency basis really having the debate in market prices
Speaker 1: about the next payroll reports, which is, if you look
Speaker 1: at this one, you know the biggest category of improvement
Speaker 1: is leisure and hospitality. It was down over seven million
Speaker 1: in in in April, it was up in May, it's
Speaker 1: up today over two million. That's going to go down
Speaker 1: in July if these shutdowns, if the spread of the
Speaker 1: virus remains uncontained, and that's what the markets focused on
Speaker 1: in the high frequency data. So I think this is
Speaker 1: a little bit of good news, but not news to
Speaker 1: move the market. So, Jeff, this is what surprises me.
Speaker 1: You're saying it was priced in and people are looking
Speaker 1: to the potential bad news going forward. The higher frequency
Speaker 1: data that we got the eight thirty release was the
Speaker 1: initial jobless claims data, which was worse than expected with
Speaker 1: more than one point four million jobless claims coming in
Speaker 1: and with the ongoing UH the ongoing claims also coming
Speaker 1: in higher than expected. Why is the market focusing more
Speaker 1: on the upside surprise in the June jobs report when
Speaker 1: that is farther backward looking than the initial jobless claims,
Speaker 1: which point towards an acceleration of reclosure. Well, you know,
Speaker 1: it's a it's a it's a great question. I think
Speaker 1: it's really important to remember just the scope of flows
Speaker 1: that we're talking about here. So these are unprecedented leads,
Speaker 1: large flows into the labor market and out of the
Speaker 1: labor market. So when you're looking at that four point
Speaker 1: eight million number, that's a net number her of maybe
Speaker 1: fifteen million uh leaving uh and and and or ten
Speaker 1: million leaving and fifteen million entering. And so these are
Speaker 1: really really large gross flows. And inside of that, the
Speaker 1: scope of uncertainty is just you know, we are we
Speaker 1: really don't know what to expect. Remember the range in
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg survey was was was minus five thousand plus
Speaker 1: nine million. I mean, no one really knows how to
Speaker 1: forecast these flows in employment. So to one point four
Speaker 1: to seven on initial jobless claims versus you know that survey,
Speaker 1: it's within the margin of error. And that's why you're
Speaker 1: not really seeing a market reacting to that higher initial
Speaker 1: jobless claims. It's more the story of this report, which
Speaker 1: is the story of June economy, reopening flows back into
Speaker 1: into the economy, big increases in retail, leisure and hospitality.
Speaker 1: The change, as Jonathan highlighted, the decline in hourly earnings
Speaker 1: is a reflection of the labor force starting to redistribute
Speaker 1: back to the lower wage workers that were most harm
Speaker 1: So all of that is consistent with what I think
Speaker 1: we were pricing in back in early June. Jeff rozen
Speaker 1: very one final question, and I'll keep it sort of
Speaker 1: philosophic here on a sleepy summer Thursday. The Powell put
Speaker 1: has never been more putty than the put is right now.
Speaker 1: Is this a normal bond market? I mean, it's almost
Speaker 1: like the systems rigged by central bank action. Are you
Speaker 1: working systematically within a normal bond market? No, it's a
Speaker 1: really good question, Tom, And you know you read the
Speaker 1: Minute and they talk a lot about the historical precedence.
Speaker 1: So it's it's not normal in any sense of what
Speaker 1: we thought of as normal functioning of the bond markets.
Speaker 1: We have had experiences with yield curve control, with financial
Speaker 1: repression in the United States. It was the aftermath of
Speaker 1: World War Two up until the fifty one Treasury Set accord.
Speaker 1: That is the period that is more like where we
Speaker 1: are today. So when you think about the treasury market
Speaker 1: and you think about the functioning of risk free rates
Speaker 1: in our financial markets as a base for understanding financial
Speaker 1: market pricing, you really have to reassess your assumptions from
Speaker 1: a systematic point of view. We have to re look
Speaker 1: at what's in the data, what's underlying the data that
Speaker 1: we see, and how that changes. When the fundamental underpinnings
Speaker 1: of the structure of the Treasury rates are now really
Speaker 1: pinned that zero the zero lower bound, and we're going
Speaker 1: to debate over the next couple of months how far
Speaker 1: out that control or that targeting moves out. The correpect
Speaker 1: to answer your questions, is absolutely a very different environment
Speaker 1: than anything in the in the post different one environment.
Speaker 1: Jeff Rosenberg of black Rock, thank you so much. Today
Speaker 1: it's all about the jobs data coming in much better
Speaker 1: than expected. Let's dig a little bit deeper with Jay
Speaker 1: Bryson Wells Fargo Chief Economists. I'll speak slowly, Ja for you,
Speaker 1: because I know you're a graduate and a PhD graduate
Speaker 1: of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill as
Speaker 1: a Dukie here as a Dukey alumni, I'll speak a
Speaker 1: little bit slowly, okay for you, doctor, So Jay, thanks
Speaker 1: so much for we really appreciate it. What do you
Speaker 1: make of this job's data here? Is this just kind
Speaker 1: of catching up as we kind of reopened here or
Speaker 1: do you see anything a little bit deeper in there? Well?
Speaker 1: So yes, there is uh some catching up that to
Speaker 1: be done here. Um. Recall that we lost between you know,
Speaker 1: February and April, we lost twenty two million jobs. Um.
Speaker 1: Now we have gotten about seven million backs. So you know,
Speaker 1: as the economy reopened in you know, in May and
Speaker 1: in June, this is what you're kind of seeing, you
Speaker 1: know here. Um. I think it's gonna be interesting when
Speaker 1: we get to the July report because you know, if
Speaker 1: there's any bad news here at this morning, and I
Speaker 1: don't want to stress that, but you know, initial jobless
Speaker 1: claims remain high, continuing jobless claims remain high, and we
Speaker 1: all know that some states have started to go into
Speaker 1: reverse um recently in terms of reopening, and so these
Speaker 1: big employment games are probably behind us at this point.
Speaker 1: Jab Ryson with us, and wonderful to have you with us,
Speaker 1: Jay today. Futures up forty Futures continue to advance up
Speaker 1: four thousand, sixteen in the Dow, almost in two big
Speaker 1: figures in the vix point six A Jay when I
Speaker 1: saw the numbers, and I get the idea that this
Speaker 1: is as good a get as it gets. And now
Speaker 1: we really learned the cost of this pandemic. Great will
Speaker 1: economists over the weekend, particularly Wells Fargo. Will they readjust
Speaker 1: the level the percentage of unemployment rate we're gonna see
Speaker 1: at the end of the year, or will they just
Speaker 1: simply bring it in closer? These are better numbers. Is
Speaker 1: the recovery of December now the recovery of October? Well, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think Tom that there is something to be said
Speaker 1: of that. I mean, it's interesting when you look at
Speaker 1: the technical details here. What what the uh BLS has
Speaker 1: been saying is that there's been people who have been
Speaker 1: misclassified up until this point. That is, when the BLS
Speaker 1: calls these people and ask them questions, these people were saying, yes,
Speaker 1: I'm on, I didn't work, Um, I didn't work this
Speaker 1: week because of quote other reasons. And you know it's
Speaker 1: because of the pandemic. They were they were furlowed from
Speaker 1: their jobs. And and so when you calculate the unemployment rate,
Speaker 1: these people were considered to be employed, um, but they
Speaker 1: really weren't. They were really furloughed um, and so there
Speaker 1: was some sense that that was that was bringing down
Speaker 1: the unemployment rate by too much. And what we we've
Speaker 1: learned with this June report is that misclassification error is
Speaker 1: a lot lower. So this eleven point one percent unemployment
Speaker 1: rate seems to be closer to you know, the quote
Speaker 1: true unemployment rate at this point, and so we're probably
Speaker 1: not going to get a bounce back up. And so yeah,
Speaker 1: I would think that we we are already pretty low
Speaker 1: in terms of our unemployment rate at the end of
Speaker 1: the year. So I don't know if we're going to
Speaker 1: be making a lot of adjustments than that, but I
Speaker 1: could see other shops bringing their unemployment rate numbers down.
Speaker 1: Those sirens, you hear, folks, we welcome all of you worldwide.
Speaker 1: That is the North Carolina State Police running to the
Speaker 1: rescue of how we have someone from Duke and North Carolina.
Speaker 1: And at the same time, those sirens are that's right,
Speaker 1: just a little you know, trying to prevent a little
Speaker 1: bit of a issue here. Jay. You know, it's interesting here,
Speaker 1: what is your sense of kind of the underlying health
Speaker 1: of the labor market here. I mean, again, we kind
Speaker 1: of had a couple months here where we came back
Speaker 1: better than expected. But as we shake out to the
Speaker 1: other side of this thing, but it looks like we're
Speaker 1: having some significant resurgence and some key markets, I think
Speaker 1: about California, Texas, Florida, those are key labor markets. Do
Speaker 1: you expect to see kind of some less than good
Speaker 1: news over the next month or two. Yeah, so, I
Speaker 1: far I was given a letter of grade. You know,
Speaker 1: the unemployment or the tough of the economy, the labor
Speaker 1: market back in February would have been in a where
Speaker 1: are we now, We're you know, kind of at a
Speaker 1: sea And I understand that because he is a really
Speaker 1: good grade there, but you know, for most of us,
Speaker 1: kind of bediocre. And you know, so, um, we have,
Speaker 1: as we said earlier, we have gotten the bounce uh
Speaker 1: from furlough workers coming back, but there are probably millions
Speaker 1: of businesses that aren't coming back. They've closed for good,
Speaker 1: and those key people aren't going to go back to
Speaker 1: a job anytime soon. And so you know, by the
Speaker 1: end of next year, you know, we're still thinking the
Speaker 1: unemployment rate's going to be at six percent um and
Speaker 1: in February was three point five percent. I mean, we're
Speaker 1: not going back to that anytime soon. And so yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, we're moving in the right traction. Things are
Speaker 1: getting are better, but there's still gonna be millions of
Speaker 1: Americans who are going to be unemployed, and they're probably
Speaker 1: going to be unemployed for a long period of time.
Speaker 1: It's too short a time, Ja Brison, we gotta do
Speaker 1: this again soon, Jay Brison, Wills Fargo, Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: This is a year you could pack it in. But
Speaker 1: that was never the spirit of Arthur Fiedler. And I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go back, folks to my childhood. Keith Lockhart doesn't
Speaker 1: know this, but I was weaned, absolutely weaned on the
Speaker 1: Boston Pops. I would sit in Swellesley Hills. My grandparents
Speaker 1: had that eighteen twelve Tchaikovsky overture from the I think
Speaker 1: it was a Minnesota Orchestra, and I was ordered a
Speaker 1: gunpoint to listen to it six times a day around July.
Speaker 1: And then something happened. Arthur learned from institution he had
Speaker 1: the audacity to get old Paul. This was like Williams
Speaker 1: to his dream Ski. It was that bad. I have
Speaker 1: the clearest memory of Keith, who he came in under
Speaker 1: the greatest pressure of anybody. I'm sure of anybody maybe
Speaker 1: when Bernstein was thrown up New York Philharmonic. Other than that, No,
Speaker 1: this was the toughest shoes to fill in the history
Speaker 1: of classical music. And Keith Lockhart absolutely nailed it with
Speaker 1: the Boston Pops twenty some years ago. We're throwing you
Speaker 1: can join us right now. Keith, what was it like
Speaker 1: the first Pops when you had to step into those shoes? Hi,
Speaker 1: Tom High, Paul. Uh, you left out that other guy,
Speaker 1: John Williams in between Arthur and Mike. He went off
Speaker 1: the Hollywood made both well, you know, but he whatever
Speaker 1: happened to John Williams exactly. Um, it was my first season,
Speaker 1: so this would have been fourth of July, and uh,
Speaker 1: it all went by on a blur. I started in
Speaker 1: May with concerts. I did probably thirty five cons just
Speaker 1: before the fourth of July, but I don't remember any
Speaker 1: of them because I was just too busy, you know,
Speaker 1: watching my world turn upside down. But I came out
Speaker 1: to the fourth I think it's really the first moment
Speaker 1: I noticed, because I walked out on to that stage
Speaker 1: on the hatshell and saw a sea of people and
Speaker 1: even the people I couldn't see because you can't see
Speaker 1: five dred people. They can't all sit close enough for
Speaker 1: you to see them. Um, and you could feel like
Speaker 1: the humanity that that that incredible concentration. And I walked
Speaker 1: out on that dads briskly to the center to take
Speaker 1: a bow, and I was thinking to myself, WHOA, what
Speaker 1: have you done now? Yeah, you look at this, Keith.
Speaker 1: And of course this year is so different, folks. We've
Speaker 1: pieced together the greatest hits of before because you can't
Speaker 1: cut the crowd together as well, what do you do
Speaker 1: with the orchestra? I mean, what do you do this
Speaker 1: year to keep the cellos away from the violins because
Speaker 1: of the pandemic, and how are you going to handle that? Well?
Speaker 1: This year we are not there's no live there's no
Speaker 1: live performance in the Bust Pops. There's no way we
Speaker 1: you know, we announced it about a month ago, but honestly,
Speaker 1: you know, by late March we're looking at each other, going,
Speaker 1: this thing gonna happen. You know, nobody is going to
Speaker 1: green light five people in the audience and eighty people
Speaker 1: on a tiny stage. People on a tiny stage. So
Speaker 1: we started looking at what to do, and we decided
Speaker 1: to do a retrospective concert that will air on Bloomberg
Speaker 1: at eight o'clock on fourth of July on all your platforms,
Speaker 1: and uh it is some of the best moments, the
Speaker 1: greatest guest artists we've had over the last three years
Speaker 1: of content, which really gives us an a list like
Speaker 1: you wouldn't believe because we could never have ordered to
Speaker 1: have all those people on the same year. But it's
Speaker 1: new introductions that I have done along with the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: hosts for the telecast. We shot them on a early
Speaker 1: empty hat shell a week ago to put into the show,
Speaker 1: and some new content that is reflective of the time
Speaker 1: we're in recording of some of the heroes that has
Speaker 1: done virtually with all the orcs to members in their
Speaker 1: basements and they knew socially distance performance between me and
Speaker 1: an amazing gospel singer name Bernice King that I hope
Speaker 1: will really stick in people's minds. Keith, how how are
Speaker 1: your musicians faring here? I mean it's been you know,
Speaker 1: several months here. They've obviously not been able to get
Speaker 1: together as an orchestra. How are you keeping in touch
Speaker 1: with them? How are they doing? What's going on there? Well,
Speaker 1: this is, you know, the tough time for a lot
Speaker 1: of people. But the performing arts industry has been particularly
Speaker 1: badly hit because there is simply no outlet, no viable
Speaker 1: outlet right now. People talk about coming back and having
Speaker 1: capacity controls in the houses and things like that, but
Speaker 1: you've gotta understand that the arts were a marginal business
Speaker 1: at best um before all of this, and you can't
Speaker 1: make the numbers work at a thirty percent house capacity.
Speaker 1: So we have a situation the the Boston Symphony and
Speaker 1: Boston Pops have hunkered down. There have been furloughs on
Speaker 1: the staff, and they agreed to reduction of all those
Speaker 1: full time players. But the people you normally see on
Speaker 1: the um Esplat on the fourth of July are all
Speaker 1: freelancers who work for us, and they have all been
Speaker 1: uh loose for the moment. So it is it's a
Speaker 1: very it's a very difficult time in some cases, an
Speaker 1: existentially difficult time for a lot of my colleagues and friends.
Speaker 1: She's a lock hard to look worldwide. And of course,
Speaker 1: the leadership of the Boston Symphony for years, I mean truly, folks, decades,
Speaker 1: if not generations. If you're a read Grammophone magazine or
Speaker 1: the others of the classical industry. Right now, what do
Speaker 1: we need to do to get the kids engaged in
Speaker 1: the expanse of classical music? What is your with all
Speaker 1: your experience, all of our listeners want to know how
Speaker 1: to get I get my kids interested in this? What's
Speaker 1: the lock our prescription? Well, I would to say two things.
Speaker 1: One of them is that the whole industry, especially us
Speaker 1: at the Boston Pops, have really taken a giant step
Speaker 1: forward in terms of our virtual presence and our ability
Speaker 1: to reach people virtually. The online presence of the Boston
Speaker 1: Pops and the Boston Symphony has grown immensely, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: many fold over these last three months. And that's a
Speaker 1: tool that we can continue to use to bring people
Speaker 1: to live performance, which is our ultimate goal. And it's
Speaker 1: obviously a tool by which our younger people get the
Speaker 1: vast majority of their stimulation, good or bad. Um. And
Speaker 1: the other thing I'd say to everybody, and this is
Speaker 1: in the face of you know, a lot of school
Speaker 1: distances are gonna have a hard time with this. People
Speaker 1: are gonna be laying off specialists. Participation is the biggest uh,
Speaker 1: is the biggest key to a and an audience of
Speaker 1: people who are interested in in the great things like
Speaker 1: the performing arts and like music. Giving your kid via
Speaker 1: one lessons when they asked for them, supporting them when
Speaker 1: they want to play the trumpet, having them play in
Speaker 1: the school band, the school orchestrasting in the choir. It's
Speaker 1: just like baseball wouldn't survive if none of us had
Speaker 1: ever played baseball. Uh, you know it's Uh, it's something
Speaker 1: you really have to have an appreciate creation for what's
Speaker 1: going on on the stage to really be eager to
Speaker 1: find out more about what's in it. So I would
Speaker 1: say that when people are looking at the easy things
Speaker 1: to cut, like arts programs, that they should think very
Speaker 1: carefully about that. From Arthur Fiedler to John Williams to
Speaker 1: Keith Lockhart, thank you so much, Keith Lockhart. We really
Speaker 1: look forward to the Blostom pop across all of the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg platforms. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or
Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom
Speaker 1: Keane Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide.
Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio,