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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Leie.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg from

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Speaker 1: New York City. Good morning to you Wall on the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg TV. I'm really happy to

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Speaker 1: say that the National Economic Councils Director Larry Cutlow joins

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Speaker 1: us now in reaction to the payrolls report. Larry always

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Speaker 1: great to get your thoughts on payrolls Thursday this time around,

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Speaker 1: and I think everyone just wants the initial reaction to

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Speaker 1: the job's report and what it means for the next

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Speaker 1: fiscal package. How did these numbers shape the fiscal effort

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Speaker 1: in Washington over the next several weeks. Well, look, first

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Speaker 1: of all, it's as spectacular number and it helps the

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Speaker 1: overall situation enormously, So you know, that's really the key point.

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Speaker 1: We've created a lot of jobs in the last couple

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Speaker 1: of months, and the trends continue. I want to say

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Speaker 1: one thing I was listening to that earlier conversation. I

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Speaker 1: don't think people understand that relationship. The rescue package that

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Speaker 1: the President led with bipartisan support and Congress, and the

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Speaker 1: p p P that Secretary manution Uh fostered and implemented.

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Speaker 1: It's the temporary layoffs, John, it's the furloughs that are

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Speaker 1: coming down. We kept people connected to their employers. Okay,

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Speaker 1: they did receive assistance, but we kept them connected so

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Speaker 1: that as the economy reopened and the businesses reopened, roughly

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Speaker 1: of small business reopened. So we saw it again today.

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Speaker 1: I mean, sixty three and a half percent of unemployed

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Speaker 1: now are temporary workers. That number was seventy and was

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Speaker 1: seven point seven million. I don't see why that trend

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Speaker 1: can continue. That's the point making I don't. I'm not sure.

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Speaker 1: It's like an intellectual disconnect why that trend can continue.

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Speaker 1: A lot of temporary layer us will go back to work.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of people believe you can't extra

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Speaker 1: polay this out too far because we've had to slow

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Speaker 1: down or reverse the reopenings elsewhere, Larry, and for that reason,

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Speaker 1: many people think more help is needed. This is what

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Speaker 1: the President had to say in the last twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours when he was asked about more direct payments for individuals.

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Speaker 1: He said, I support it, but it has to be

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Speaker 1: done properly, and I support actually larger numbers than the Democrats.

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Speaker 1: So that doesn't sound like a consideration anymore. It sounds

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Speaker 1: like the President's made a decision. It's not a fair characterization.

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Speaker 1: Larry Well, No, I don't think final decision has been

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Speaker 1: made at all. Uh. President has always favored that, but

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Speaker 1: he wants it to be done in a very smart way,

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Speaker 1: in in a targeted way. So I think the shape

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Speaker 1: of any kind of package is still very much up

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Speaker 1: in the air. Look, he has emphasized a number of

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Speaker 1: programs now again, negotiations won't formally begin until after the

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Speaker 1: recess to life worth recess. He's talked about payroll tax cut.

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Speaker 1: He's talked about reemployment benefits and bonuses because we don't

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Speaker 1: like the six hundred dollars plus up on unemployment. It's

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Speaker 1: a disincentive to work. He's talked about helping the restaurant industry,

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Speaker 1: the tourism ministry, the entertainment industry with better business write offs.

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Speaker 1: He's talked about capital gains, He's talked about investment rite offs.

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Speaker 1: There's still a very large package here, and you know,

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Speaker 1: we won't know until we go into these negotiations. So

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Speaker 1: he's right, Uh, everything's on the table. Where many things

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Speaker 1: are on the table. It's just a question of shaping

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Speaker 1: it and do it smart. I thought the original rescue

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Speaker 1: package was very smart. I don't know if everything has

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Speaker 1: to apply all over again, we'll see. We assess the economy,

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Speaker 1: that's the key point. Well, let's assess the dates up.

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Speaker 1: What's the evidence of the enhanced unemployment benefits of being

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Speaker 1: a disincentive through sense of work? Well, right now, I

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Speaker 1: can only give you anecdotal evidence. I hear this a

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Speaker 1: lot of his Here this secretary minution, here's this um

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Speaker 1: Jane Scalia at labor. So many business people have said

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Speaker 1: to us, particularly the smaller business, particularly some sense the

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Speaker 1: most vulnerable to the pandemic, the restaurants, the small stores

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Speaker 1: and shops. They can't hire people back because the unemployment

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Speaker 1: benefits are very generous. Now, I happen to think the

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Speaker 1: generous unemployment package was probably a good thing at the

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Speaker 1: beginning of this pandemic when we put it, when we

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Speaker 1: put it on the table in mid March and late March. Okay,

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Speaker 1: working with the p p P program pay or protection.

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Speaker 1: I think the unemployment compensation could be a good thing.

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Speaker 1: But now that moment has passed, we're moving into the

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Speaker 1: reopening and as these numbers shows spectacular job numbers, people

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Speaker 1: are starting to move back. They want to go to work.

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Speaker 1: So I think we have to look at this a

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Speaker 1: little differently now, and I think reemployment benefits probably will

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Speaker 1: help fill the bill, and those two have to be

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Speaker 1: targeted to the right people who maybe we're having trouble

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Speaker 1: getting a job or competing with the unemployment at six

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Speaker 1: It will be a better story for the small businesses.

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Speaker 1: It will be more manageable. They'll be able to afford people.

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Speaker 1: That's the key point, Larry. Unfortunately, you were the team

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Speaker 1: have only given me another sixty seconds for this interview,

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Speaker 1: which is unfortunate because I have so much to cover

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Speaker 1: with you. So let me get to China. A caught

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Speaker 1: up with Ambassador Bolton in the last twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: in the Wall Street Journal. In the last couple of weeks,

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Speaker 1: he referred to Secretary Manuchin as a panda hugger. You

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Speaker 1: came off lightly. You were called a free trader, but

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Speaker 1: he said there is an intellectually fractured approach to fit

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Speaker 1: all things China. He said that the president was leaning

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Speaker 1: on President g to get the best possible outcome, to

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Speaker 1: lean on States and by soybeans, etcetera, to help him

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Speaker 1: win an election. They were his words that the president

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Speaker 1: of the United States was leaning on a foreign leader

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Speaker 1: to help win the election. Now, Larry, my question is,

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Speaker 1: at the moment with Hong Kongan, the news and the

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Speaker 1: likes of Secretary Pompeio, go and get that, I'm making

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Speaker 1: a lot of noise about how hot you will be

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Speaker 1: on China. How can we take that seriously? When a

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Speaker 1: former employee of this administration is gona around saying the

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Speaker 1: older president wants is the president she to help him

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Speaker 1: win the next election, Well, I'll just say I haven't

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Speaker 1: read Mrs Bolton's book. Uh. Many people who were at

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Speaker 1: that dinner in Japan completely disagree and say that that

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Speaker 1: was an unfactual remark. Okay, that's what I know. Uh,

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Speaker 1: China is a huge problem. We are engaging with them

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Speaker 1: on trade, but what they are doing in Hong Kong

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Speaker 1: as well as other problems, becomes a larger and larger

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Speaker 1: difficulty in our relations. As Secretary Pompeio and National Security

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Speaker 1: Advisor O'Brien have said time and time again, I want

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Speaker 1: to pivot to a much better story. July one, the

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Speaker 1: U s m c A trade deal went into place.

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Speaker 1: That is a hugely important, pro growth, job creating trade

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Speaker 1: deal which will help agg worker and farmers and manufacturers

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Speaker 1: and the blue collar boom can re arise. We've got

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Speaker 1: currency stability, We've got intellectual property protections. It's a tremendous deal.

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Speaker 1: I don't know why it doesn't get more coverage. The

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Speaker 1: leaders are probably gonna come here next week to celebrate

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Speaker 1: it with President Trump. U s m c A is

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Speaker 1: a solid winner and it will be pro growth and

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Speaker 1: by the bye it will add to growth next year after.

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Speaker 1: I think we have a strong second half and that's

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Speaker 1: looking forward and I don't see anything reasons block that.

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Speaker 1: As long as people know, and I'll end with this, John,

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Speaker 1: people know they must exercise best practices. Don't forget the guidelines. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the masks, the distancing, the testing, and the personal hygiene

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Speaker 1: are important to mitigate this higher flashpoint in the Southwest.

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Speaker 1: It's not necessarily nationwide. It's a few states in the Southwest.

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Speaker 1: Use those mitigation best practices and we will get out

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Speaker 1: of that more as and we will grow this economy

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Speaker 1: and spectacular fashion. Larry, I'm not sure how we got

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Speaker 1: from leaning on foreign leaders to wearing a mask, but

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Speaker 1: I'm pleased that is the administration's approach at the moment

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Speaker 1: to where a mask. Larry. I would talk about U S.

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Speaker 1: M c A, but unfortunately, because of your team, I've

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Speaker 1: got to cut this interview short and hopefully we can

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Speaker 1: pick up where we end this another time in the

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Speaker 1: next couple of weeks. Larry, count love that National Economic

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Speaker 1: Council Director. Right now, we have to look systemically at

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Speaker 1: the systematic, multi strategy approach of black rock, and we

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Speaker 1: can do that with Jeffrey Rosenberg. He joins us now

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Speaker 1: hugely prodigious on the dynamics of the market and how

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Speaker 1: it folds back into fixed income. Jeff, let me get

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Speaker 1: out front of your next July note. What is the

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Speaker 1: distinction right now in bond dynamics that has your attention

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Speaker 1: well on the on the bond dynamic side, away from

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Speaker 1: the payroll report. You know, it's it's really about yesterday's news,

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Speaker 1: and it's about the discussion around yield curve control or

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Speaker 1: what the FED wants to call it. Yield curve targeting

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Speaker 1: because the front end of the yield curve is pinned

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Speaker 1: at zero. There's no doubt about that. The uncertainty in

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Speaker 1: the bond market is about the shape of the yield

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Speaker 1: curve as you move further out in the maturity. That's

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Speaker 1: really where monetary policy and the uncertainty is centered, because

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Speaker 1: you have these two great unprecedented pressures on that curve.

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Speaker 1: On the one side, the fiscal policy that Jonathan just

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Speaker 1: talked about, UH support for the economy, for financial markets

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Speaker 1: is being funded in the treasury market, and it is

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Speaker 1: an historic expansion in the amount of supply of debt.

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Speaker 1: On the other side is the FED that it's set

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Speaker 1: up till now for markets functioning. They're going to expand

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Speaker 1: the balance sheet to maintain that market functioning. So we're

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Speaker 1: going to start to pivot away from that market functioning

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Speaker 1: conversation to a conversation around chewy, around l steps, around

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Speaker 1: further accommodation, and so in the bond market, that's where

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Speaker 1: all the uncertainty lies. It's about the ship in the curve,

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Speaker 1: about yield curve targeting. When the market moves, you do

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Speaker 1: more data checks for your futures. Up thirty seven Dow

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Speaker 1: futures up. It's a round number, so I'll mention it

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Speaker 1: four zero zero up, four hundred points right up, buttressed

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Speaker 1: on twenty six thousand on the DALLA. The VIX comes

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Speaker 1: in a big stick one point six six points twenty

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Speaker 1: six point nine six on the VIX. Jeff Rosenberg's bond

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Speaker 1: markets asleep UH to year yield point one six percent.

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Speaker 1: Jeff doesn't care about the ten year or the thirty year.

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Speaker 1: I look, Jeff Rosenberg at the bond dynamics here and

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Speaker 1: come on, equity market up looking out to two thousand

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Speaker 1: twenty one. Is there a risk here that the bond

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Speaker 1: market looks out to two thousand twenty one and all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden it's yield up, price lower. Possibly. You know,

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Speaker 1: we're talking about the back end of the curve, and

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Speaker 1: that's what you know where you're just highlighting there's no

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Speaker 1: movement in the front end of the curve because that's

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Speaker 1: all pinned. You know, it is really going to be

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Speaker 1: about whether or not we've had success on the virus

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Speaker 1: and the combination of fiscal and monetary policy getting success

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Speaker 1: around inflation expectations. Very hard to see that today at

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Speaker 1: historical levels of inflation and inflation expectations. But if you're

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Speaker 1: going to have a scenario where you could have the

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Speaker 1: bond market up and the equity market up, getting back

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Speaker 1: to a little bit of inflation could be a positive.

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Speaker 1: It's a tricky conversation because there could be a slippery

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Speaker 1: slope from a little bit of inflation being good to

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Speaker 1: a little bit of inflation being uh, not good. And

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Speaker 1: so that's going to be that further out one dynamic,

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Speaker 1: certainly not the dynamic today in terms of inflation and

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Speaker 1: inflation fears. But remember this is the goal fighting inflation

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Speaker 1: from below, meaning we have too little inflation. So if

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Speaker 1: there's good to be higher interest rates, it might be

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Speaker 1: welcomed by the Fed in a little bit steeper of

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Speaker 1: a curve pricing in a little bit higher inflation expectation. Jeff,

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Speaker 1: In a day like today, we're getting all this data

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Speaker 1: with respect to the US labor market, would you trade

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Speaker 1: on any of it? You know? I think that Mike

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Speaker 1: McKee had the framing of the data exactly right, that

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Speaker 1: this is old news. It's good news, but it's news

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Speaker 1: that it was already reflected in prices and we've moved

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Speaker 1: beyond the kind of early June market to in a

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Speaker 1: high frequency basis really having the debate in market prices

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Speaker 1: about the next payroll reports, which is, if you look

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Speaker 1: at this one, you know the biggest category of improvement

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Speaker 1: is leisure and hospitality. It was down over seven million

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Speaker 1: in in in April, it was up in May, it's

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Speaker 1: up today over two million. That's going to go down

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Speaker 1: in July if these shutdowns, if the spread of the

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Speaker 1: virus remains uncontained, and that's what the markets focused on

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Speaker 1: in the high frequency data. So I think this is

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Speaker 1: a little bit of good news, but not news to

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Speaker 1: move the market. So, Jeff, this is what surprises me.

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Speaker 1: You're saying it was priced in and people are looking

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Speaker 1: to the potential bad news going forward. The higher frequency

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Speaker 1: data that we got the eight thirty release was the

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Speaker 1: initial jobless claims data, which was worse than expected with

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Speaker 1: more than one point four million jobless claims coming in

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Speaker 1: and with the ongoing UH the ongoing claims also coming

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Speaker 1: in higher than expected. Why is the market focusing more

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Speaker 1: on the upside surprise in the June jobs report when

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Speaker 1: that is farther backward looking than the initial jobless claims,

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Speaker 1: which point towards an acceleration of reclosure. Well, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's a it's a it's a great question. I think

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Speaker 1: it's really important to remember just the scope of flows

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Speaker 1: that we're talking about here. So these are unprecedented leads,

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Speaker 1: large flows into the labor market and out of the

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Speaker 1: labor market. So when you're looking at that four point

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Speaker 1: eight million number, that's a net number her of maybe

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Speaker 1: fifteen million uh leaving uh and and and or ten

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Speaker 1: million leaving and fifteen million entering. And so these are

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Speaker 1: really really large gross flows. And inside of that, the

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Speaker 1: scope of uncertainty is just you know, we are we

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Speaker 1: really don't know what to expect. Remember the range in

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg survey was was was minus five thousand plus

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Speaker 1: nine million. I mean, no one really knows how to

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Speaker 1: forecast these flows in employment. So to one point four

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Speaker 1: to seven on initial jobless claims versus you know that survey,

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Speaker 1: it's within the margin of error. And that's why you're

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Speaker 1: not really seeing a market reacting to that higher initial

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Speaker 1: jobless claims. It's more the story of this report, which

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Speaker 1: is the story of June economy, reopening flows back into

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Speaker 1: into the economy, big increases in retail, leisure and hospitality.

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Speaker 1: The change, as Jonathan highlighted, the decline in hourly earnings

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Speaker 1: is a reflection of the labor force starting to redistribute

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Speaker 1: back to the lower wage workers that were most harm

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Speaker 1: So all of that is consistent with what I think

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Speaker 1: we were pricing in back in early June. Jeff rozen

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Speaker 1: very one final question, and I'll keep it sort of

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Speaker 1: philosophic here on a sleepy summer Thursday. The Powell put

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Speaker 1: has never been more putty than the put is right now.

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Speaker 1: Is this a normal bond market? I mean, it's almost

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Speaker 1: like the systems rigged by central bank action. Are you

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Speaker 1: working systematically within a normal bond market? No, it's a

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Speaker 1: really good question, Tom, And you know you read the

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Speaker 1: Minute and they talk a lot about the historical precedence.

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Speaker 1: So it's it's not normal in any sense of what

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Speaker 1: we thought of as normal functioning of the bond markets.

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Speaker 1: We have had experiences with yield curve control, with financial

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Speaker 1: repression in the United States. It was the aftermath of

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Speaker 1: World War Two up until the fifty one Treasury Set accord.

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Speaker 1: That is the period that is more like where we

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Speaker 1: are today. So when you think about the treasury market

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Speaker 1: and you think about the functioning of risk free rates

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Speaker 1: in our financial markets as a base for understanding financial

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Speaker 1: market pricing, you really have to reassess your assumptions from

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Speaker 1: a systematic point of view. We have to re look

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Speaker 1: at what's in the data, what's underlying the data that

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Speaker 1: we see, and how that changes. When the fundamental underpinnings

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Speaker 1: of the structure of the Treasury rates are now really

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Speaker 1: pinned that zero the zero lower bound, and we're going

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Speaker 1: to debate over the next couple of months how far

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Speaker 1: out that control or that targeting moves out. The correpect

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Speaker 1: to answer your questions, is absolutely a very different environment

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Speaker 1: than anything in the in the post different one environment.

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Speaker 1: Jeff Rosenberg of black Rock, thank you so much. Today

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Speaker 1: it's all about the jobs data coming in much better

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Speaker 1: than expected. Let's dig a little bit deeper with Jay

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Speaker 1: Bryson Wells Fargo Chief Economists. I'll speak slowly, Ja for you,

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Speaker 1: because I know you're a graduate and a PhD graduate

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Speaker 1: of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill as

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Speaker 1: a Dukie here as a Dukey alumni, I'll speak a

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Speaker 1: little bit slowly, okay for you, doctor, So Jay, thanks

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Speaker 1: so much for we really appreciate it. What do you

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Speaker 1: make of this job's data here? Is this just kind

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Speaker 1: of catching up as we kind of reopened here or

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Speaker 1: do you see anything a little bit deeper in there? Well?

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Speaker 1: So yes, there is uh some catching up that to

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Speaker 1: be done here. Um. Recall that we lost between you know,

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Speaker 1: February and April, we lost twenty two million jobs. Um.

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Speaker 1: Now we have gotten about seven million backs. So you know,

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Speaker 1: as the economy reopened in you know, in May and

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Speaker 1: in June, this is what you're kind of seeing, you

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Speaker 1: know here. Um. I think it's gonna be interesting when

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Speaker 1: we get to the July report because you know, if

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Speaker 1: there's any bad news here at this morning, and I

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Speaker 1: don't want to stress that, but you know, initial jobless

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Speaker 1: claims remain high, continuing jobless claims remain high, and we

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Speaker 1: all know that some states have started to go into

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Speaker 1: reverse um recently in terms of reopening, and so these

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Speaker 1: big employment games are probably behind us at this point.

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Speaker 1: Jab Ryson with us, and wonderful to have you with us,

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Speaker 1: Jay today. Futures up forty Futures continue to advance up

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Speaker 1: four thousand, sixteen in the Dow, almost in two big

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Speaker 1: figures in the vix point six A Jay when I

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Speaker 1: saw the numbers, and I get the idea that this

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Speaker 1: is as good a get as it gets. And now

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Speaker 1: we really learned the cost of this pandemic. Great will

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Speaker 1: economists over the weekend, particularly Wells Fargo. Will they readjust

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Speaker 1: the level the percentage of unemployment rate we're gonna see

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Speaker 1: at the end of the year, or will they just

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Speaker 1: simply bring it in closer? These are better numbers. Is

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Speaker 1: the recovery of December now the recovery of October? Well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think Tom that there is something to be said

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Speaker 1: of that. I mean, it's interesting when you look at

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Speaker 1: the technical details here. What what the uh BLS has

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Speaker 1: been saying is that there's been people who have been

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Speaker 1: misclassified up until this point. That is, when the BLS

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Speaker 1: calls these people and ask them questions, these people were saying, yes,

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Speaker 1: I'm on, I didn't work, Um, I didn't work this

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Speaker 1: week because of quote other reasons. And you know it's

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Speaker 1: because of the pandemic. They were they were furlowed from

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Speaker 1: their jobs. And and so when you calculate the unemployment rate,

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Speaker 1: these people were considered to be employed, um, but they

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Speaker 1: really weren't. They were really furloughed um, and so there

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Speaker 1: was some sense that that was that was bringing down

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Speaker 1: the unemployment rate by too much. And what we we've

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Speaker 1: learned with this June report is that misclassification error is

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Speaker 1: a lot lower. So this eleven point one percent unemployment

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Speaker 1: rate seems to be closer to you know, the quote

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Speaker 1: true unemployment rate at this point, and so we're probably

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Speaker 1: not going to get a bounce back up. And so yeah,

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Speaker 1: I would think that we we are already pretty low

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Speaker 1: in terms of our unemployment rate at the end of

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Speaker 1: the year. So I don't know if we're going to

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Speaker 1: be making a lot of adjustments than that, but I

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Speaker 1: could see other shops bringing their unemployment rate numbers down.

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Speaker 1: Those sirens, you hear, folks, we welcome all of you worldwide.

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Speaker 1: That is the North Carolina State Police running to the

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Speaker 1: rescue of how we have someone from Duke and North Carolina.

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Speaker 1: And at the same time, those sirens are that's right,

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Speaker 1: just a little you know, trying to prevent a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a issue here. Jay. You know, it's interesting here,

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Speaker 1: what is your sense of kind of the underlying health

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Speaker 1: of the labor market here. I mean, again, we kind

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Speaker 1: of had a couple months here where we came back

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Speaker 1: better than expected. But as we shake out to the

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Speaker 1: other side of this thing, but it looks like we're

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Speaker 1: having some significant resurgence and some key markets, I think

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Speaker 1: about California, Texas, Florida, those are key labor markets. Do

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Speaker 1: you expect to see kind of some less than good

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Speaker 1: news over the next month or two. Yeah, so, I

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Speaker 1: far I was given a letter of grade. You know,

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Speaker 1: the unemployment or the tough of the economy, the labor

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Speaker 1: market back in February would have been in a where

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Speaker 1: are we now, We're you know, kind of at a

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Speaker 1: sea And I understand that because he is a really

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Speaker 1: good grade there, but you know, for most of us,

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Speaker 1: kind of bediocre. And you know, so, um, we have,

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Speaker 1: as we said earlier, we have gotten the bounce uh

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Speaker 1: from furlough workers coming back, but there are probably millions

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Speaker 1: of businesses that aren't coming back. They've closed for good,

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Speaker 1: and those key people aren't going to go back to

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Speaker 1: a job anytime soon. And so you know, by the

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Speaker 1: end of next year, you know, we're still thinking the

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Speaker 1: unemployment rate's going to be at six percent um and

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Speaker 1: in February was three point five percent. I mean, we're

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Speaker 1: not going back to that anytime soon. And so yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, we're moving in the right traction. Things are

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Speaker 1: getting are better, but there's still gonna be millions of

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Speaker 1: Americans who are going to be unemployed, and they're probably

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Speaker 1: going to be unemployed for a long period of time.

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Speaker 1: It's too short a time, Ja Brison, we gotta do

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Speaker 1: this again soon, Jay Brison, Wills Fargo, Thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: This is a year you could pack it in. But

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Speaker 1: that was never the spirit of Arthur Fiedler. And I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go back, folks to my childhood. Keith Lockhart doesn't

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Speaker 1: know this, but I was weaned, absolutely weaned on the

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Speaker 1: Boston Pops. I would sit in Swellesley Hills. My grandparents

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Speaker 1: had that eighteen twelve Tchaikovsky overture from the I think

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Speaker 1: it was a Minnesota Orchestra, and I was ordered a

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Speaker 1: gunpoint to listen to it six times a day around July.

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Speaker 1: And then something happened. Arthur learned from institution he had

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Speaker 1: the audacity to get old Paul. This was like Williams

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Speaker 1: to his dream Ski. It was that bad. I have

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Speaker 1: the clearest memory of Keith, who he came in under

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Speaker 1: the greatest pressure of anybody. I'm sure of anybody maybe

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Speaker 1: when Bernstein was thrown up New York Philharmonic. Other than that, No,

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Speaker 1: this was the toughest shoes to fill in the history

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Speaker 1: of classical music. And Keith Lockhart absolutely nailed it with

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Speaker 1: the Boston Pops twenty some years ago. We're throwing you

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Speaker 1: can join us right now. Keith, what was it like

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Speaker 1: the first Pops when you had to step into those shoes? Hi,

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Speaker 1: Tom High, Paul. Uh, you left out that other guy,

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Speaker 1: John Williams in between Arthur and Mike. He went off

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Speaker 1: the Hollywood made both well, you know, but he whatever

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Speaker 1: happened to John Williams exactly. Um, it was my first season,

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Speaker 1: so this would have been fourth of July, and uh,

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Speaker 1: it all went by on a blur. I started in

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Speaker 1: May with concerts. I did probably thirty five cons just

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Speaker 1: before the fourth of July, but I don't remember any

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Speaker 1: of them because I was just too busy, you know,

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Speaker 1: watching my world turn upside down. But I came out

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Speaker 1: to the fourth I think it's really the first moment

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Speaker 1: I noticed, because I walked out on to that stage

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Speaker 1: on the hatshell and saw a sea of people and

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Speaker 1: even the people I couldn't see because you can't see

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Speaker 1: five dred people. They can't all sit close enough for

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Speaker 1: you to see them. Um, and you could feel like

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Speaker 1: the humanity that that that incredible concentration. And I walked

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Speaker 1: out on that dads briskly to the center to take

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Speaker 1: a bow, and I was thinking to myself, WHOA, what

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Speaker 1: have you done now? Yeah, you look at this, Keith.

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Speaker 1: And of course this year is so different, folks. We've

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Speaker 1: pieced together the greatest hits of before because you can't

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Speaker 1: cut the crowd together as well, what do you do

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Speaker 1: with the orchestra? I mean, what do you do this

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Speaker 1: year to keep the cellos away from the violins because

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Speaker 1: of the pandemic, and how are you going to handle that? Well?

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Speaker 1: This year we are not there's no live there's no

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Speaker 1: live performance in the Bust Pops. There's no way we

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Speaker 1: you know, we announced it about a month ago, but honestly,

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Speaker 1: you know, by late March we're looking at each other, going,

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00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 1: this thing gonna happen. You know, nobody is going to

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Speaker 1: green light five people in the audience and eighty people

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00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,400
Speaker 1: on a tiny stage. People on a tiny stage. So

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00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 1: we started looking at what to do, and we decided

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Speaker 1: to do a retrospective concert that will air on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: at eight o'clock on fourth of July on all your platforms,

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Speaker 1: and uh it is some of the best moments, the

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Speaker 1: greatest guest artists we've had over the last three years

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00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 1: of content, which really gives us an a list like

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Speaker 1: you wouldn't believe because we could never have ordered to

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00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: have all those people on the same year. But it's

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Speaker 1: new introductions that I have done along with the Bloomberg

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00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 1: hosts for the telecast. We shot them on a early

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Speaker 1: empty hat shell a week ago to put into the show,

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00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 1: and some new content that is reflective of the time

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00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,119
Speaker 1: we're in recording of some of the heroes that has

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Speaker 1: done virtually with all the orcs to members in their

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Speaker 1: basements and they knew socially distance performance between me and

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00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: an amazing gospel singer name Bernice King that I hope

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00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:13,439
Speaker 1: will really stick in people's minds. Keith, how how are

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00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: your musicians faring here? I mean it's been you know,

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00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 1: several months here. They've obviously not been able to get

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Speaker 1: together as an orchestra. How are you keeping in touch

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00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 1: with them? How are they doing? What's going on there? Well,

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00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 1: this is, you know, the tough time for a lot

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Speaker 1: of people. But the performing arts industry has been particularly

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00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 1: badly hit because there is simply no outlet, no viable

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00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: outlet right now. People talk about coming back and having

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Speaker 1: capacity controls in the houses and things like that, but

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Speaker 1: you've gotta understand that the arts were a marginal business

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Speaker 1: at best um before all of this, and you can't

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Speaker 1: make the numbers work at a thirty percent house capacity.

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00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: So we have a situation the the Boston Symphony and

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Speaker 1: Boston Pops have hunkered down. There have been furloughs on

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Speaker 1: the staff, and they agreed to reduction of all those

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00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:04,199
Speaker 1: full time players. But the people you normally see on

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00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: the um Esplat on the fourth of July are all

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00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 1: freelancers who work for us, and they have all been

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00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: uh loose for the moment. So it is it's a

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00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:16,360
Speaker 1: very it's a very difficult time in some cases, an

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00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 1: existentially difficult time for a lot of my colleagues and friends.

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00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 1: She's a lock hard to look worldwide. And of course,

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00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 1: the leadership of the Boston Symphony for years, I mean truly, folks, decades,

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00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,679
Speaker 1: if not generations. If you're a read Grammophone magazine or

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00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,679
Speaker 1: the others of the classical industry. Right now, what do

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00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:37,679
Speaker 1: we need to do to get the kids engaged in

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00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 1: the expanse of classical music? What is your with all

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00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: your experience, all of our listeners want to know how

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00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 1: to get I get my kids interested in this? What's

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00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 1: the lock our prescription? Well, I would to say two things.

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00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: One of them is that the whole industry, especially us

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00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 1: at the Boston Pops, have really taken a giant step

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00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 1: forward in terms of our virtual presence and our ability

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00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 1: to reach people virtually. The online presence of the Boston

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00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 1: Pops and the Boston Symphony has grown immensely, uh, you know,

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00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,439
Speaker 1: many fold over these last three months. And that's a

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00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 1: tool that we can continue to use to bring people

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00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: to live performance, which is our ultimate goal. And it's

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00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,879
Speaker 1: obviously a tool by which our younger people get the

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00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 1: vast majority of their stimulation, good or bad. Um. And

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Speaker 1: the other thing I'd say to everybody, and this is

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00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: in the face of you know, a lot of school

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00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 1: distances are gonna have a hard time with this. People

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00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:34,479
Speaker 1: are gonna be laying off specialists. Participation is the biggest uh,

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00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 1: is the biggest key to a and an audience of

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00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 1: people who are interested in in the great things like

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Speaker 1: the performing arts and like music. Giving your kid via

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00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 1: one lessons when they asked for them, supporting them when

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00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 1: they want to play the trumpet, having them play in

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00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 1: the school band, the school orchestrasting in the choir. It's

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00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 1: just like baseball wouldn't survive if none of us had

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00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 1: ever played baseball. Uh, you know it's Uh, it's something

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00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: you really have to have an appreciate creation for what's

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00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 1: going on on the stage to really be eager to

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00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 1: find out more about what's in it. So I would

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00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: say that when people are looking at the easy things

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00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 1: to cut, like arts programs, that they should think very

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00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 1: carefully about that. From Arthur Fiedler to John Williams to

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00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 1: Keith Lockhart, thank you so much, Keith Lockhart. We really

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Speaker 1: look forward to the Blostom pop across all of the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg platforms. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: Keane Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio,