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Speaker 2: Question or interview to day Jean Beavan out of Princeton,
Speaker 2: all of his good work at Black Crack, and of
Speaker 2: course with his Montreal heritage, with a real understanding of Canada.
Speaker 2: We're doing Canada in this half hour. Stay with us, folks.
Speaker 2: It's going to be interesting, Jean Lescott, get away from
Speaker 2: Canada first to the moment at hand. What I love
Speaker 2: about your note is you talk about time. You talk
Speaker 2: about the x axis. President Trump's x axis is a
Speaker 2: little different than the leader of China's x axis, isn't it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think totally.
Speaker 4: I mean, there's, uh, there's a speed at which things
Speaker 4: are happening right now that is, you know, unprecedented lots
Speaker 4: to figure out. Ninety days is a short period of time,
Speaker 4: and you know, I don't it doesn't seem that China,
Speaker 4: for sure is is on the same time frame right now.
Speaker 3: So there's there's a there's a bit of a gap there.
Speaker 3: We'll see how that gets resolved with.
Speaker 2: All the resources of black Rock has. When you hear
Speaker 2: the word negotiation, the President loves to say this negotiation.
Speaker 2: We're working towards a deal, are they, Jean.
Speaker 4: Beava, I think you know, one one of the key
Speaker 4: things that we've come to a conclusion now is, you know,
Speaker 4: trying this negotiation, trying to understand what will be the
Speaker 4: tit and tat steps along the way, it's probably like
Speaker 4: a futile exercise.
Speaker 3: I think. I think we need to think more about.
Speaker 4: Like what are the kind of you know, the forces
Speaker 4: that will be at play that would shape the outcome.
Speaker 3: No matter what the intent or the negotiation tactics are.
Speaker 4: So we think there are some mutable laws at play
Speaker 4: here that you know, you cannot break.
Speaker 3: And so that's what we try to focus on.
Speaker 4: One is on the trade supply chain wirring that cannot
Speaker 4: be kind of on one overnight or very quickly, so
Speaker 4: that's gonna play into the shaping the outcome in the
Speaker 4: near term. And the other is the dead level in
Speaker 4: the US that's going to be a constraint as well.
Speaker 5: John, I think you know, most of our viewers and
Speaker 5: listeners grew up in a world where globalization was the
Speaker 5: backdrop for global trade, global free trade.
Speaker 4: Is that over, Well, it's gonna be evolving for sure,
Speaker 4: based on you know what what what is being contemplated here.
Speaker 4: I think you know, again, this this, these are decades
Speaker 4: in the making, and you know it can evolve. I
Speaker 4: don't think it's going to feel very different here from now.
Speaker 4: We're very linked, we're very intertwined.
Speaker 5: Uh.
Speaker 4: And again there are these immutable laws, right so, I
Speaker 4: mean we've built this you know, international trade framework for
Speaker 4: many decades.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 4: And you know there's no way to flip and close
Speaker 4: Crain account deficit and at the same time rely on
Speaker 4: foreign investors to finance.
Speaker 3: Thirty percent of the debt.
Speaker 4: Right So those two things, you know, you cannot one
Speaker 4: and not the other. And so that that's kind of
Speaker 4: these forces that will be there. I think, so globalization
Speaker 4: is being rewired. It's going to look different, but I think.
Speaker 3: There's going to be a version of globalization that's going
Speaker 3: to still be very much there.
Speaker 5: And I guess Jehan as recently as the beginning of
Speaker 5: this year, the I think the discussion among most investors
Speaker 5: was about the US economic exceptionalism visa via the rest
Speaker 5: of the world.
Speaker 3: Is that now over?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Well, that is certainly the big question in every comline conversation.
Speaker 4: I spent a week in Europe last week, and you
Speaker 4: know that's the starting point of all conversations, especially since
Speaker 4: we subscribe to this, to this idea that like europ
Speaker 4: inequities would be outperforming for fundamental reasons that is being tested,
Speaker 4: that shaken, certainly, and that's not a given for lobal rassers.
Speaker 4: I do think for US, we focus on what we
Speaker 4: call mega forces like ai UH and think about where
Speaker 4: they're more likely to play out and quickly and generate profit.
Speaker 4: And that still leads us to see the US as
Speaker 4: as a place where we're going to see return over
Speaker 4: like a one two year horizon. But clearly it is
Speaker 4: more uncertainty now imanating from the US, and that is
Speaker 4: denting that that teases that exception.
Speaker 2: Can I go nerd?
Speaker 5: Jean be sure?
Speaker 2: Okay, We're gonna go nerd right now, Folks the Global
Speaker 2: Wall Street, you can do this with doctor Boven of
Speaker 2: Blackrock Sean. What if I'm fascinating here is the media
Speaker 2: is fixation on OMG, It's all over we're all gonna die.
Speaker 2: And the other side of the coin is somehow we're
Speaker 2: gonna get back to what we did pre Trump and
Speaker 2: what I'm thinking of here out of Princeton, and there
Speaker 2: was all sorts of great work there is we get
Speaker 2: almost a dampening function to and in between this a
Speaker 2: sign your sotal dampening function of this complex real GDP
Speaker 2: trade and all where we just moderate over time after
Speaker 2: some new middle tendency between doom and gloom and the
Speaker 2: American exceptionalism. We do is that where we're heading is
Speaker 2: to some middle tendency out there somewhere.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Well, I think that's another way to talk about these
Speaker 4: what I've been talking about, these immutable forces. I think
Speaker 4: we you know, we it's very easy to get stuck
Speaker 4: on the fact that uncertainty is high. I think this
Speaker 4: is the word that is I still not cannot pronounce
Speaker 4: it properly, but that's the word that This is the
Speaker 4: most often mentioned these days, uncertainty.
Speaker 3: And I think this is easy to stop there.
Speaker 4: I think, you know, it might not be the outcome
Speaker 4: that people would have liked that's gonna come, but I
Speaker 4: think we're going to get more clarity the smoke's gonna
Speaker 4: come out. There are forces that will shape what's gonna happen,
Speaker 4: independent of independently of like the opening gambits, we're gonna
Speaker 4: hear and I think this is what we need to
Speaker 4: focus on. And it's kind of a middle ground that
Speaker 4: will will discumber, of course in the next few months.
Speaker 2: Jean Bovan with us with Black Crock on this moment
Speaker 2: that we're all living futures negative seven the vics. Paul
Speaker 2: noted under twenty eight yesterday at twenty eight point three six.
Speaker 2: All right, now we welcome all of you on your
Speaker 2: commute across North America. Good morning in Mexico City, Good
Speaker 2: morning in Canada, and of course on YouTube, growing each
Speaker 2: and every day. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. Lisa Mataloe humbled
Speaker 2: by the growth there. It's absolutely it's because of her
Speaker 2: newspaper paper.
Speaker 5: Second, yeah, you know, absolutely, no question.
Speaker 2: Jean, let us switch to Canada. I was supposed to
Speaker 2: do a seminar with you in Toronto. You couldn't make it.
Speaker 2: You were with Martin Sant Louis trying to get the
Speaker 2: Canadians into the playoffs, and Jean, I look at this
Speaker 2: moment in Canada and I think we can look at
Speaker 2: it as the liberal tradition of Quebec and Lower Canada,
Speaker 2: Upper Canada and then out to the west, a far
Speaker 2: more conservative tradition some would say, almost trump like in
Speaker 2: its nature. How will Canada move forward after this election?
Speaker 3: Well, you know, I think the the.
Speaker 4: The Canadian experience over the last two months, uh is
Speaker 4: is another kind of testimony of the unprecedented the world
Speaker 4: we live in. Things have been completely upended compared to
Speaker 4: where they stood, you know in January. Uh and this
Speaker 4: is entirely driven by uh, you know, what's happening south
Speaker 4: of the border.
Speaker 3: So that has.
Speaker 4: Completely uh changed the political calculus in in Canada and
Speaker 4: uh we see that elsewhere in the world.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 4: So I think this is we'll see what happens on Monday,
Speaker 4: but clearly this is about how Canada we'll deal with
Speaker 4: the US going forward. It's about how it's gonna kind
Speaker 4: of rewire itself given the evolution uh and you know
Speaker 4: uh and one of the big questions will be on
Speaker 4: how internally, uh they are able to increase competitiveness between
Speaker 4: and across provinces, because we know that trade barrier between
Speaker 4: provinces are higher than with the US, So there's an
Speaker 4: opportunity there, I guess to explore.
Speaker 2: Are you optimistic that Canada can find a new productivity
Speaker 2: as America has.
Speaker 4: I've been working you know, on commissions and things like
Speaker 4: that for the last thirty years and Kenda trying to
Speaker 4: think about how we increase the productivity and the king
Speaker 4: productivity which is.
Speaker 3: Still is not resolved.
Speaker 4: But I think I do think that, like you know,
Speaker 4: increasing trade across provinces and reducing those barriers is one way.
Speaker 3: To do it.
Speaker 4: I think that might also give an impetus to to
Speaker 4: spend on things that you know, we were relying on
Speaker 4: other partners due to supply and so that could create
Speaker 4: as well some some opportunities in Canada. So you know,
Speaker 4: I'm not I'm going to be skeptical until I see it,
Speaker 4: but you know, they are their opportunities.
Speaker 5: Well, John, you're you mentioned you're over in Europe speaking
Speaker 5: with black Rock clients recently. What are they viewing How
Speaker 5: are they thinking about the US, the US markets, the
Speaker 5: safe haven nature of the US. Are they viewing the
Speaker 5: US these days?
Speaker 4: When I was exactly there during the week where this
Speaker 4: kind of came to an head, right when we saw
Speaker 4: the ten year and through the year, like move like
Speaker 4: very aggressively up on over the course of hours and days.
Speaker 4: And I think that that certainly cut the attention of investors.
Speaker 3: And I think.
Speaker 4: What's happening here is like and it's a natural tendency.
Speaker 4: Right when you're facing something you don't understand and it's
Speaker 4: out there, I think you tend to go back home
Speaker 4: and stay closer to the home base.
Speaker 3: I think this is.
Speaker 4: Exacerbating a bit of the home bias that is a
Speaker 4: natural you know, we've been talking to clients globally for
Speaker 4: years about like you need to reduce your home bias,
Speaker 4: you need to diversify internationally. Well, in an environment like this,
Speaker 4: it kind of goes in the opposite direction and reinforces it.
Speaker 3: So that's certainly something you could pick up, I think.
Speaker 4: At the same time, and I do think that you know,
Speaker 4: people understand that like treasuries has been taken as the
Speaker 4: safe as asset in the world and unquestionably, uh and
Speaker 4: now you know, people ask.
Speaker 3: Questions about this. So I still think this is you know,
Speaker 3: this is this is.
Speaker 4: At the margin and uh, you know, this is an
Speaker 4: immutable force that we uh, it's a freshole equilibrium. But
Speaker 4: we in the US cannot afford you have a term
Speaker 4: premium that blows out because the debt will become you know,
Speaker 4: unmanageable and so on. So I think they'll at the
Speaker 4: end of the day that's going to be contained. But
Speaker 4: the fact that people are asking those questions it is
Speaker 4: certainly notable.
Speaker 2: Jean, thank you so much. Doctor Bovan with Blackrock thrilled
Speaker 2: that he could be with us today.
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Speaker 2: Brian Kingston is hugely qualified. He's got a fancy title
Speaker 2: with the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association, but he's all also,
Speaker 2: I got bulletproof academics led by Carlton University on trade
Speaker 2: and on what it means for auto manufacturers. What is
Speaker 2: the biggest conceit myth thing we get wrong, Brian about
Speaker 2: that bridge between Windsor and Detroit.
Speaker 7: Well, look, I think the biggest myth that we see
Speaker 7: there is that this bridge and the bilott of relationship
Speaker 7: in auto between Canada and the US primarily benefits Canada
Speaker 7: when the fact is we're so deeply integrated over sixty
Speaker 7: years and now the United States actually has an automotive
Speaker 7: surplus with Canada. And what many people don't realize is
Speaker 7: that Canada is the largest export destination for US manufactured
Speaker 7: vehicles by far. The Americans send more cars to Canada
Speaker 7: than they do to China, Germany, and Mexico combined. So
Speaker 7: we're deeply integrated and we effectively build vehicles together.
Speaker 2: What is the tone of the layoffs right now? Over
Speaker 2: a beverage of my choice, I'm noting Volva laying off.
Speaker 2: I believe it was nine hundred people. But give us
Speaker 2: the immediate Thursday morning state of the labor economy in
Speaker 2: this trade war.
Speaker 7: Well, look, it's all about uncertainty at the moment. Automotive
Speaker 7: is a huge sector in Canada. We've got over one
Speaker 7: hundred and thirty thousand Canadians directly employed in manufacturing, but
Speaker 7: if you look at the broader industry impact, it's closer
Speaker 7: to half a million. And there's just no clarity on
Speaker 7: what the path forward is right now. I mean, the
Speaker 7: tariffs are on, then they're off. The interpretation of the
Speaker 7: tariffs changes consistently, so for anybody in this industry, it's
Speaker 7: just so difficult to plan right now, and of course
Speaker 7: that has a huge impact on the labor market.
Speaker 2: Okay, one thousand, Henry Ford's center drive Yep, and Google
Speaker 2: misspelled it. It's center. They misspelled center. I don't understand
Speaker 2: that this is in Windsor Ford Motor Company, Windsor Engine plant, Paul.
Speaker 2: Imagine the conversation in there this morning.
Speaker 5: So, Brian, when you talk to the k and manufacturers,
Speaker 5: what are they doing today? How are they planning? How
Speaker 5: are they are they just kind of how are they
Speaker 5: just going day to day?
Speaker 7: Well, what we're seeing is because of the uncertainty, it
Speaker 7: makes it very difficult for companies to move forward with investments,
Speaker 7: to deploy new capital, of course, and Canada has received
Speaker 7: over forty billion dollars in new auto investments since twenty twenty,
Speaker 7: huge reinvestment into the industry. A lot of that's related
Speaker 7: to electric vehicle production. So there are some big, big
Speaker 7: projects underway or on the books, but until we have
Speaker 7: clarity on the tariff situation, it's very difficult to proceed.
Speaker 7: And just to give you a sense of how expensive
Speaker 7: these tariffs are, we're estimating that US based manufacturers are
Speaker 7: going to incur about one hundred and seven point seven
Speaker 7: billion dollars in cost if they remain in plate So
Speaker 7: what makes it hard to move forward with any project?
Speaker 2: We're talking with Jean Beavan, Blackrock, you know, Montreal, Brian,
Speaker 2: it's a city up to the right, it's up this
Speaker 2: Saint Lawrence. We're talking with Joe Bovent And to me,
Speaker 2: the basic idea is this word negotiation. I don't know
Speaker 2: what it means. What if whoever the new Prime Minister
Speaker 2: of Canada, what if they just say no to President Trump,
Speaker 2: We're not going to participate in this trade war. What
Speaker 2: are the consequences for Lower Canada and Upper Canada?
Speaker 7: All the consequences are are massive. I mean, the Canadian
Speaker 7: economy is so highly dependent and integrated with the US,
Speaker 7: you know, and that goes back to we had a
Speaker 7: bilateral trade agreement initially then NAFTA and of course now
Speaker 7: the US MCA. And because of that, all of our
Speaker 7: supply chains are on a north south basis. So it's
Speaker 7: not as though Canada has the ability to diversify and
Speaker 7: do it quickly, pivot to Asia Europe. We are truly
Speaker 7: connected with the American economy. So you know, I think
Speaker 7: negotiating with the US day one for the incoming Prime
Speaker 7: minister has got to be the top priority. And for
Speaker 7: auto over nine eighty percent of what we build in
Speaker 7: Canada goes to the United States. That's how the industry
Speaker 7: has that we found it.
Speaker 3: That is zero amazing, Brian.
Speaker 5: What does all this uncertainty within the auto industry mean
Speaker 5: for the transition to electric vehicles? It seems like it
Speaker 5: was kind of sputtering anyway. People were unsure about the demand.
Speaker 5: I can't charge so on and so forth. The prices
Speaker 5: are too high. Does this make the transition to EV's
Speaker 5: even more difficult? Is that what you're hearing from some
Speaker 5: of your manufacturers.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it definitely does. I mean, first of all, we're
Speaker 7: anticipating because of the terrorists that vehicle prices could go
Speaker 7: up by as little as forty seven hundred US dollars,
Speaker 7: but could increase up to over ten thousand US dollars.
Speaker 7: And for EV adoption that's particularly problematic because evs are
Speaker 7: more expensive. It's still a new technology, and so you
Speaker 7: price gap in Canada of about fourteen thousand dollars between
Speaker 7: a gas powered vehicle and an electric vehicle. So now
Speaker 7: you throw in the economic uncertainty that these tariffs are
Speaker 7: creating the potential for a downturn, which obviously has an
Speaker 7: impact on new vehicle sales, plus a price gap that
Speaker 7: could even widen because a lot of the battery components
Speaker 7: come from other parts of the world which will be
Speaker 7: impacted by the US reciprocal tariffs. And it doesn't add
Speaker 7: up to a good situation for ev adoption.
Speaker 2: Got one, This is brilliant, Brian. I got one final question,
Speaker 2: whether the Canadians are going to Myrtle Beach or Palm Beach.
Speaker 2: It's over, isn't it.
Speaker 7: Nobody's traveling right, No, I mean, the the numbers that
Speaker 7: we're seeing are just phenomenal. Some of our major border crossings,
Speaker 7: you're seeing travel down in some instances over forty percent.
Speaker 7: And so Canadians have really taken this personally. We're so
Speaker 7: closely tied to America and it's been such a strong
Speaker 7: relationship that a lot of Canadians just feel really kind
Speaker 7: of saddened by what's going on, and so they're canceling trips.
Speaker 7: So it is having a big impact on the tourism industry.
Speaker 2: We look for just speaking to you again. Brian Kingston's
Speaker 2: President of the chief executive officer the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers
Speaker 2: Association and is closely affiliated with a VAMP Forum, which
Speaker 2: is a wonderful economic effort up at Canada.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 1: Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Hugh von Steinas with you yesterday with Oliver Wyman. When
Speaker 2: Hu von Steinas wants to understand sanctions, there's one person
Speaker 2: he turns to joining us now from Oliver Wyman in Washington,
Speaker 2: Daniel Tannembaum. He's been a huge support for all of
Speaker 2: our efforts here. Just you know tannabomb one oh one,
Speaker 2: Dan Tannerbaum. Has sanctions against Russia been successful?
Speaker 6: Well, Tom, thank you for the intro, and it was
Speaker 6: good to see Hugh on yesterday. I think sanctions on
Speaker 6: Russia have played a role, But I think the challenge
Speaker 6: we've seen, particularly since Trump has taken office again, is
Speaker 6: the US really hasn't been driving on sanctions policy much
Speaker 6: at all. When I talked to my clients in the
Speaker 6: European Union, in the UK government, they're really not getting
Speaker 6: the same level of engagement. So without the continued usage
Speaker 6: of sanctions and then the enforcement of them for those
Speaker 6: who would violate them, it is hard to say that
Speaker 6: they're actually effective.
Speaker 5: So, Daniel, you're done in Washington, DC, the IMF meetings here,
Speaker 5: What are our trading partners telling you about kind of
Speaker 5: where they think the next hours will be, days will be,
Speaker 5: in weeks and months.
Speaker 6: Well, I mean we talked about this at Davos. Cautious
Speaker 6: optimism I think has shifted into just pure fatigue at
Speaker 6: this point. I think we saw the market spikes over
Speaker 6: the last few days with the announcements related to China.
Speaker 6: But my anticipation last night was we hadn't heard from China,
Speaker 6: and obviously we did over and their reaction was we're
Speaker 6: not actually talking. So everyone's really looking for smooth air,
Speaker 6: for some degree of a clear path forward, and I
Speaker 6: just don't think we're seeing that yet.
Speaker 2: Dan, at George Washington University a few years ago you
Speaker 2: took the courses. Is brutal. You think you're going to
Speaker 2: go in and get an a tannabomb. Was lucky you
Speaker 2: got out with the C plus negotiation three to two tannabomb.
Speaker 2: When President Trump says he's negotiating, is he negotiating?
Speaker 6: Well, that's the question. I mean, there are certainly some
Speaker 6: talks going on bilaterally with different trading partners post liberation Day,
Speaker 6: but China's made very clear we don't know what you're
Speaker 6: talking about. And that is a bit of the question
Speaker 6: right now of where is this discussion happening. Some countries
Speaker 6: are certainly having them, but remember all of these deals
Speaker 6: in ninety days was always going to be a tall order,
Speaker 6: and China is the one that probably requires the most attention,
Speaker 6: more so than anyone.
Speaker 5: So, Daniel, are we literally going to be trying to
Speaker 5: negotiate seventy odd trading negotiations and deals and all that
Speaker 5: kind of stuff?
Speaker 3: Is that what we're Is that our strategy.
Speaker 6: If you're to listen to people like Peter Navarro, Yes,
Speaker 6: because we're not doing this in any sort of block form.
Speaker 6: These are really one off trade deals where we had
Speaker 6: kind of broader alliances where you could impose trade on
Speaker 6: a broader scale. So that does seem like what may happen.
Speaker 6: I hope there'll be broader blocks that come in for
Speaker 6: some of the discussions with USTR and other parts of
Speaker 6: the government, but that is a bit of the question
Speaker 6: at this point of how they're going to navigate all
Speaker 6: of these.
Speaker 2: Now, Dantannabam, I want to come back to that discussion
Speaker 2: of doctor Navarro with some real criticism. I would say,
Speaker 2: within the Zeit case of doctor Navarro and Paul, would
Speaker 2: you say he's been sidelined the last week or two.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I certainly have not seen him as much as
Speaker 5: we had it right.
Speaker 2: I could never see Dantannabam's sideline norigy. Mister Tannabob's going
Speaker 2: to stay with us with Oliver Wyman here as we
Speaker 2: get this key claim data out here, we say good
Speaker 2: morning to all of you across the nation on your commute.
Speaker 2: The kept goods orders and non defense exit they come
Speaker 2: in and they're a little I'm going to call them
Speaker 2: a little shaky as well, and claims are spot on
Speaker 2: survey once again, Michael McKee absolutely nailing it that DOSEE
Speaker 2: doesn't have much to do with claims because claims come
Speaker 2: in post severance. We have a two hundred and twenty
Speaker 2: two thousand statistic a non revision as well, So pretty
Speaker 2: much quiescent claims. Here is somebody waits the cracking of
Speaker 2: the job economy. All of our economic data, our study
Speaker 2: of it, including Michigan sentiment tomorrow up on a lot
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Speaker 2: We're going to jump back to Dan Tanabaum with Oliver Wyman.
Speaker 2: His claims came in quietly, a non event d'An tanabam,
Speaker 2: just the summation of all the corporate officers you talk to.
Speaker 2: They're talking to you about sanctions. What are you listening
Speaker 2: for from corporate America?
Speaker 6: Well, they're not just talking to me about sanctions. We're
Speaker 6: spending a lot of time talking about broader trade policy.
Speaker 6: And right now, the question that people are asking, even
Speaker 6: though they know the answer they're going to get, is
Speaker 6: where do we go from here? And I think that
Speaker 6: is the real question people are craving. The market is
Speaker 6: craving some degree of a clear path forward, whether it's
Speaker 6: more broadly on trade, I mean the topic of Russia Ukraine. Admittedly,
Speaker 6: it's been very quiet here in Washington this week on
Speaker 6: the topic, despite the fact that there were nine more
Speaker 6: people killed in an attack on Kiev last night, and
Speaker 6: the US is busy trying to put pressure on the
Speaker 6: Ukrainians for a deal, and not the Russians who were
Speaker 6: the one firing the missiles in Ukraine. So it is
Speaker 6: a bit of an odd time at the moment. But
Speaker 6: I think a lot of companies are standing by waiting
Speaker 6: for some degree of a clear path forward. We're going
Speaker 6: back and forth so quickly now.
Speaker 2: I mean, this is really really interesting. And of course
Speaker 2: here's the tweet from President Trump as he listens to
Speaker 2: Dan Tannebam. I am not happy with the Russian strikes
Speaker 2: on Kiev. Not necessary and very bed timing. Vladimir all
Speaker 2: caps stop, exclamation point. Five thousand soldiers a week are dying.
Speaker 2: Let's get the peace steel done, Dann. That wasn't in
Speaker 2: your textbooks at George Washington. I mean this, you know
Speaker 2: I'm going to go back to angry beavers. I mean,
Speaker 2: that's where I learned my international relations. Dan Tannabam, this
Speaker 2: is nuts. We had a palm Sunday set of murders.
Speaker 2: We had the missile attacks last night in the heart
Speaker 2: oft Kiev. Why are we doing this, Dan tannebomb.
Speaker 6: Well, and you know, it's wonderful. The President was pissed
Speaker 6: at Putin a few weeks ago. I think we saw
Speaker 6: that on one of the Sunday morning shows. But he
Speaker 6: needs to actually take action against Russia. There have been
Speaker 6: two major moves that the US has made on Russia
Speaker 6: since Trump has taken office again. One was by quietly
Speaker 6: extending Biden error Russia sanctions a week and a half
Speaker 6: ago with little fanfare. The other was actually by not
Speaker 6: doing something and letting an energy waiver expire to ban
Speaker 6: the trading or financing of Russian energy. But the President
Speaker 6: needs to be more active on actually using the considerable
Speaker 6: power that the US government has to put more pressure
Speaker 6: on Russia and those supporting it.
Speaker 2: Mister tannab I'm really honored to have you here as
Speaker 2: we get that tweek from the President of the United States.
Speaker 2: Daniel Tannebaum is with Oliver Wyman.
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Speaker 2: Tina Fordham joins US now with Fordham Global. For say,
Speaker 2: when she was in school a few years ago, there
Speaker 2: was no course on how to interpret tweets. Tina Fordham
Speaker 2: Vladimir Kamma all caps stop, exclamation point. That's what we
Speaker 2: got from the President of the United States today. How
Speaker 2: does this move forward? Do we move our foreign diplomacy
Speaker 2: of Kissingerian real politic of those against Henry Kissinger? Do
Speaker 2: we move it forward by tweet?
Speaker 8: You have no idea how painful your words are to someone.
Speaker 8: I mean, I've had the immense privilege of interviewing Henry
Speaker 8: Kissinger a couple of times before he left US, and
Speaker 8: I am a great admirer of his colleagues Malan Albright
Speaker 8: and other is you know, yes, we are. This is
Speaker 8: the tictokification of global politics and it's definitely not helping
Speaker 8: investors in business leaders or global leaders work out how
Speaker 8: to deal with United States, although it will cause jubilation
Speaker 8: in some quarters.
Speaker 5: So I don't know, Tina is is it as simple
Speaker 5: as to say that the era of US economic exceptionalism
Speaker 5: is that at risk here?
Speaker 8: So I mean that expression which has become part of
Speaker 8: investor parlance. US exceptionalism, of course predates this period by
Speaker 8: a very long time. The US is the exceptional nation,
Speaker 8: you know. So that goes back to manifest destiny and
Speaker 8: this idea of the US as having this, you know,
Speaker 8: all of these special privileges before we got to the
Speaker 8: dollar having exorbitant privilege. It is hard to see how
Speaker 8: this trend can be reversed in an enduring way. Quickly said,
Speaker 8: that's me being diplomatic. I think Ken Griffin said something
Speaker 8: with a bit more alarm in his remarks. But as
Speaker 8: we're talking about sorry secretaries of State, I was thinking
Speaker 8: about Madlon Albright and the US as the indispensable nation.
Speaker 8: We're seeing the consequences now of the US deciding it
Speaker 8: doesn't want that job anymore.
Speaker 2: What's so interesting here is in the business world, somebody
Speaker 2: will comment on your own Powell, and I guess we
Speaker 2: have adults within the administration counseling the president. According to reports,
Speaker 2: including our Josh Wingrove, Sir, maybe you don't want to
Speaker 2: say that, maybe you want to back up in the
Speaker 2: teen of Fordham World. Are there adults within our diplomacy
Speaker 2: or frankly at the Pentagon advising the president for example,
Speaker 2: on Ukraine? Sir, maybe you don't want to say that,
Speaker 2: back up? Where's Rubio on this?
Speaker 8: It certainly appears. I mean, experts were not in the
Speaker 8: room a long time ago, and serious people are marginalized.
Speaker 8: And when you have these what can only be I
Speaker 8: guess leaks about Scott Bescent having to wait until Howard
Speaker 8: Lutnik was in a different part of the White House
Speaker 8: to get the President to write out a tweet. This
Speaker 8: is where the CEOs that we talked to are starting
Speaker 8: to say, Okay, this is not three dimensional chess, if
Speaker 8: it ever was. This is haphazard.
Speaker 5: So what do you advise your clients here is it?
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm just looking at the markets. It's been
Speaker 5: selling stocks, it's been selling the US dollar, it's been
Speaker 5: buying gold, I guess, But I mean, what are your
Speaker 5: discussions with your clients like these days?
Speaker 8: I mean, in practical terms, this is an extremely difficult
Speaker 8: time to be the CEO of a company that has
Speaker 8: to get any goods from anywhere else. You know, there
Speaker 8: is no question that it's complex. What we are seeing
Speaker 8: is the you know, the natural impulse is to say,
Speaker 8: let's wait and see, let's wait for a bit more
Speaker 8: clarity to emerge, for the dust to settle. And there's
Speaker 8: always this temptation, isn't there to say, you know, right,
Speaker 8: musk is up or out, or so and so is down.
Speaker 8: This is noise. I think we're moving out of the
Speaker 8: era of trying to read the president's mind and get
Speaker 8: in his good graces. We saw some side deals, whether
Speaker 8: it's Columbia University, my alma mater, or some US law firms,
Speaker 8: but we're starting to see more assertive pushback. Not across
Speaker 8: the board. Harvard can do this. Perhaps some other companies
Speaker 8: are are you know, in a position and feel they
Speaker 8: have influence on the discussion, But the pushback is starting.
Speaker 2: Tina, thank you so much. Too short of visit Tina
Speaker 2: Fordum with this Fordum Blue Foresight.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Right to it with the newspapers. Here's Lisa Mateo.
Speaker 9: Okay, yeah, we all know, right the gold market surgeon.
Speaker 9: Remember at top about thirty five hundred dollars an ounce
Speaker 9: on Tuesday. So one hot spot for precious metal collectors.
Speaker 9: Can you guess where it is?
Speaker 2: Imagine?
Speaker 9: Yes, Costco Costco telling you gold bars, coins, They sell
Speaker 9: them online some of the store. But here's the thing
Speaker 9: that's different now, it's shoppers. They are cashing in on
Speaker 9: the company's rewards for gold purchases. So you had the
Speaker 9: Costco executive members using the Costco City credit card who
Speaker 9: could see a net reward of about one to two
Speaker 9: percent of the purchase price. So they're buying thousands of
Speaker 9: dollars in these gold you know, coins or bars, and
Speaker 9: they're getting that little incentive that little cake back.
Speaker 2: Does she have a deal? We don't know, I.
Speaker 5: Mean, ZiT down.
Speaker 2: Did she number new kat Kirkland address?
Speaker 3: So next?
Speaker 9: Okay, for those of you out there who have a
Speaker 9: child who's graduating the class of twenty twenty five, some
Speaker 9: pretty bad news that the job market not looking so bright.
Speaker 9: The Wall Street Journal kind of looks into this with
Speaker 9: a couple steadies. Employers are now expecting to hire the
Speaker 9: same number of graduates and they did last year, and
Speaker 9: that's really down because it was supposed to be a
Speaker 9: seven point three percent increase. Another report showing consulting firms
Speaker 9: or actually planning to hire fewer graduates, and those are
Speaker 9: the ones like the potential first employer for a lot
Speaker 9: of college grads. So that's another thing that's falling back.
Speaker 9: So they're just saying that the future out there is
Speaker 9: not so bright right now as of this current.
Speaker 2: The history of this, folks, is when it goes, it goes.
Speaker 2: When you get more difficult unemployment numbers. It's not some
Speaker 2: glide path. It's like suddenly, boom, I wonder if that's
Speaker 2: where we are in thirty three minutes next.
Speaker 9: Yes, yes, and we missed this yesterday, but a big
Speaker 9: milestone for YouTube twenty years old yesterday, so it hit
Speaker 9: this milestone celebration. It's really taken off. The first video
Speaker 9: upload was yes April twenty third, two thousand and five.
Speaker 9: It wasn't really exciting. It was just this man standing
Speaker 9: in front of an elephant exclosure at the San Diego Zoo.
Speaker 9: Take a listen to it.
Speaker 7: So here we are one of the elephants. And cool
Speaker 7: thing what these guys spent is that they have really
Speaker 7: really really long trunk trunks.
Speaker 9: Told you're not that exciting, but the guy was actually
Speaker 9: one of the platform's founders who left the company two
Speaker 9: thousand and six. But it just shows how it's grown
Speaker 9: like it has. You know, it's given TV a run
Speaker 9: for its money, right the platform has rising stars. People
Speaker 9: go there for reviews. I know, people check out vacations, hotels, restaurants,
Speaker 9: things like that. Even music videos, especially guys.
Speaker 6: This one.
Speaker 9: It was the first music video on the Internet to
Speaker 9: reach one billion views op.
Speaker 2: On Coardam Stars Condam Star, Yes to.
Speaker 1: Me Racket Now.
Speaker 9: That is South Korean singer rapper Side That was one
Speaker 9: of my favorite jams July twenty twelve. It was incredible,
Speaker 9: one billion, the first to hit one billions.
Speaker 2: Today because you had a sugar gelato? Is that what
Speaker 2: this is about. It's incredible. That's going to be in
Speaker 2: my newspaper. And they came to me just over fifteen
Speaker 2: months ago and they said, Tom, we want to do
Speaker 2: YouTube internationally and I said, yeah, whatever, And I've been
Speaker 2: absolutely mumbled by the international growth of what we're doing.
Speaker 2: We say good evening to all of you in Asia
Speaker 2: Gham style. Remember the ham stock? Where did that come from?
Speaker 5: South Korea?
Speaker 2: Yes, good morning in South Korea?
Speaker 3: Why did you give us?
Speaker 2: We say good morningredible? That's wonderful, Lisa Mateo, thank you
Speaker 2: so much the newspapers.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the
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