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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube without.

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Speaker 2: Question or interview to day Jean Beavan out of Princeton,

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Speaker 2: all of his good work at Black Crack, and of

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Speaker 2: course with his Montreal heritage, with a real understanding of Canada.

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Speaker 2: We're doing Canada in this half hour. Stay with us, folks.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be interesting, Jean Lescott, get away from

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Speaker 2: Canada first to the moment at hand. What I love

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Speaker 2: about your note is you talk about time. You talk

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Speaker 2: about the x axis. President Trump's x axis is a

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Speaker 2: little different than the leader of China's x axis, isn't it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think totally.

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Speaker 4: I mean, there's, uh, there's a speed at which things

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Speaker 4: are happening right now that is, you know, unprecedented lots

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Speaker 4: to figure out. Ninety days is a short period of time,

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Speaker 4: and you know, I don't it doesn't seem that China,

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Speaker 4: for sure is is on the same time frame right now.

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Speaker 3: So there's there's a there's a bit of a gap there.

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Speaker 3: We'll see how that gets resolved with.

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Speaker 2: All the resources of black Rock has. When you hear

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Speaker 2: the word negotiation, the President loves to say this negotiation.

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Speaker 2: We're working towards a deal, are they, Jean.

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Speaker 4: Beava, I think you know, one one of the key

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Speaker 4: things that we've come to a conclusion now is, you know,

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Speaker 4: trying this negotiation, trying to understand what will be the

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Speaker 4: tit and tat steps along the way, it's probably like

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Speaker 4: a futile exercise.

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Speaker 3: I think. I think we need to think more about.

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Speaker 4: Like what are the kind of you know, the forces

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Speaker 4: that will be at play that would shape the outcome.

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Speaker 3: No matter what the intent or the negotiation tactics are.

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Speaker 4: So we think there are some mutable laws at play

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Speaker 4: here that you know, you cannot break.

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Speaker 3: And so that's what we try to focus on.

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Speaker 4: One is on the trade supply chain wirring that cannot

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Speaker 4: be kind of on one overnight or very quickly, so

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Speaker 4: that's gonna play into the shaping the outcome in the

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Speaker 4: near term. And the other is the dead level in

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Speaker 4: the US that's going to be a constraint as well.

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Speaker 5: John, I think you know, most of our viewers and

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Speaker 5: listeners grew up in a world where globalization was the

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Speaker 5: backdrop for global trade, global free trade.

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Speaker 4: Is that over, Well, it's gonna be evolving for sure,

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Speaker 4: based on you know what what what is being contemplated here.

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Speaker 4: I think you know, again, this this, these are decades

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Speaker 4: in the making, and you know it can evolve. I

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Speaker 4: don't think it's going to feel very different here from now.

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Speaker 4: We're very linked, we're very intertwined.

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Speaker 5: Uh.

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Speaker 4: And again there are these immutable laws, right so, I

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Speaker 4: mean we've built this you know, international trade framework for

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Speaker 4: many decades.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 4: And you know there's no way to flip and close

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Speaker 4: Crain account deficit and at the same time rely on

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Speaker 4: foreign investors to finance.

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Speaker 3: Thirty percent of the debt.

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Speaker 4: Right So those two things, you know, you cannot one

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Speaker 4: and not the other. And so that that's kind of

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Speaker 4: these forces that will be there. I think, so globalization

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Speaker 4: is being rewired. It's going to look different, but I think.

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Speaker 3: There's going to be a version of globalization that's going

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Speaker 3: to still be very much there.

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Speaker 5: And I guess Jehan as recently as the beginning of

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Speaker 5: this year, the I think the discussion among most investors

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Speaker 5: was about the US economic exceptionalism visa via the rest

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Speaker 5: of the world.

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Speaker 3: Is that now over?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Well, that is certainly the big question in every comline conversation.

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Speaker 4: I spent a week in Europe last week, and you

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Speaker 4: know that's the starting point of all conversations, especially since

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Speaker 4: we subscribe to this, to this idea that like europ

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Speaker 4: inequities would be outperforming for fundamental reasons that is being tested,

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Speaker 4: that shaken, certainly, and that's not a given for lobal rassers.

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Speaker 4: I do think for US, we focus on what we

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Speaker 4: call mega forces like ai UH and think about where

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Speaker 4: they're more likely to play out and quickly and generate profit.

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Speaker 4: And that still leads us to see the US as

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Speaker 4: as a place where we're going to see return over

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Speaker 4: like a one two year horizon. But clearly it is

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Speaker 4: more uncertainty now imanating from the US, and that is

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Speaker 4: denting that that teases that exception.

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Speaker 2: Can I go nerd?

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Speaker 5: Jean be sure?

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Speaker 2: Okay, We're gonna go nerd right now, Folks the Global

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Speaker 2: Wall Street, you can do this with doctor Boven of

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Speaker 2: Blackrock Sean. What if I'm fascinating here is the media

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Speaker 2: is fixation on OMG, It's all over we're all gonna die.

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Speaker 2: And the other side of the coin is somehow we're

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Speaker 2: gonna get back to what we did pre Trump and

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Speaker 2: what I'm thinking of here out of Princeton, and there

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Speaker 2: was all sorts of great work there is we get

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Speaker 2: almost a dampening function to and in between this a

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Speaker 2: sign your sotal dampening function of this complex real GDP

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Speaker 2: trade and all where we just moderate over time after

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Speaker 2: some new middle tendency between doom and gloom and the

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Speaker 2: American exceptionalism. We do is that where we're heading is

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Speaker 2: to some middle tendency out there somewhere.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think that's another way to talk about these

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Speaker 4: what I've been talking about, these immutable forces. I think

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Speaker 4: we you know, we it's very easy to get stuck

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Speaker 4: on the fact that uncertainty is high. I think this

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Speaker 4: is the word that is I still not cannot pronounce

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Speaker 4: it properly, but that's the word that This is the

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Speaker 4: most often mentioned these days, uncertainty.

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Speaker 3: And I think this is easy to stop there.

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Speaker 4: I think, you know, it might not be the outcome

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Speaker 4: that people would have liked that's gonna come, but I

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Speaker 4: think we're going to get more clarity the smoke's gonna

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Speaker 4: come out. There are forces that will shape what's gonna happen,

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Speaker 4: independent of independently of like the opening gambits, we're gonna

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Speaker 4: hear and I think this is what we need to

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Speaker 4: focus on. And it's kind of a middle ground that

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Speaker 4: will will discumber, of course in the next few months.

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Speaker 2: Jean Bovan with us with Black Crock on this moment

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Speaker 2: that we're all living futures negative seven the vics. Paul

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Speaker 2: noted under twenty eight yesterday at twenty eight point three six.

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Speaker 2: All right, now we welcome all of you on your

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Speaker 2: commute across North America. Good morning in Mexico City, Good

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Speaker 2: morning in Canada, and of course on YouTube, growing each

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Speaker 2: and every day. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. Lisa Mataloe humbled

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Speaker 2: by the growth there. It's absolutely it's because of her

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Speaker 2: newspaper paper.

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Speaker 5: Second, yeah, you know, absolutely, no question.

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Speaker 2: Jean, let us switch to Canada. I was supposed to

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Speaker 2: do a seminar with you in Toronto. You couldn't make it.

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Speaker 2: You were with Martin Sant Louis trying to get the

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Speaker 2: Canadians into the playoffs, and Jean, I look at this

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Speaker 2: moment in Canada and I think we can look at

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Speaker 2: it as the liberal tradition of Quebec and Lower Canada,

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Speaker 2: Upper Canada and then out to the west, a far

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Speaker 2: more conservative tradition some would say, almost trump like in

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Speaker 2: its nature. How will Canada move forward after this election?

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, I think the the.

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Speaker 4: The Canadian experience over the last two months, uh is

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Speaker 4: is another kind of testimony of the unprecedented the world

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Speaker 4: we live in. Things have been completely upended compared to

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Speaker 4: where they stood, you know in January. Uh and this

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Speaker 4: is entirely driven by uh, you know, what's happening south

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Speaker 4: of the border.

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Speaker 3: So that has.

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Speaker 4: Completely uh changed the political calculus in in Canada and

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Speaker 4: uh we see that elsewhere in the world.

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Speaker 6: Right.

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Speaker 4: So I think this is we'll see what happens on Monday,

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Speaker 4: but clearly this is about how Canada we'll deal with

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Speaker 4: the US going forward. It's about how it's gonna kind

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Speaker 4: of rewire itself given the evolution uh and you know

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Speaker 4: uh and one of the big questions will be on

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Speaker 4: how internally, uh they are able to increase competitiveness between

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Speaker 4: and across provinces, because we know that trade barrier between

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Speaker 4: provinces are higher than with the US, So there's an

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Speaker 4: opportunity there, I guess to explore.

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Speaker 2: Are you optimistic that Canada can find a new productivity

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Speaker 2: as America has.

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Speaker 4: I've been working you know, on commissions and things like

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Speaker 4: that for the last thirty years and Kenda trying to

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Speaker 4: think about how we increase the productivity and the king

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Speaker 4: productivity which is.

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Speaker 3: Still is not resolved.

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Speaker 4: But I think I do think that, like you know,

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Speaker 4: increasing trade across provinces and reducing those barriers is one way.

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Speaker 3: To do it.

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Speaker 4: I think that might also give an impetus to to

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Speaker 4: spend on things that you know, we were relying on

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Speaker 4: other partners due to supply and so that could create

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Speaker 4: as well some some opportunities in Canada. So you know,

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Speaker 4: I'm not I'm going to be skeptical until I see it,

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Speaker 4: but you know, they are their opportunities.

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Speaker 5: Well, John, you're you mentioned you're over in Europe speaking

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Speaker 5: with black Rock clients recently. What are they viewing How

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Speaker 5: are they thinking about the US, the US markets, the

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Speaker 5: safe haven nature of the US. Are they viewing the

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Speaker 5: US these days?

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Speaker 4: When I was exactly there during the week where this

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Speaker 4: kind of came to an head, right when we saw

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Speaker 4: the ten year and through the year, like move like

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Speaker 4: very aggressively up on over the course of hours and days.

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Speaker 4: And I think that that certainly cut the attention of investors.

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Speaker 3: And I think.

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Speaker 4: What's happening here is like and it's a natural tendency.

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Speaker 4: Right when you're facing something you don't understand and it's

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Speaker 4: out there, I think you tend to go back home

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Speaker 4: and stay closer to the home base.

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Speaker 3: I think this is.

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Speaker 4: Exacerbating a bit of the home bias that is a

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Speaker 4: natural you know, we've been talking to clients globally for

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Speaker 4: years about like you need to reduce your home bias,

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Speaker 4: you need to diversify internationally. Well, in an environment like this,

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Speaker 4: it kind of goes in the opposite direction and reinforces it.

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Speaker 3: So that's certainly something you could pick up, I think.

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Speaker 4: At the same time, and I do think that you know,

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Speaker 4: people understand that like treasuries has been taken as the

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Speaker 4: safe as asset in the world and unquestionably, uh and

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Speaker 4: now you know, people ask.

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Speaker 3: Questions about this. So I still think this is you know,

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Speaker 3: this is this is.

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Speaker 4: At the margin and uh, you know, this is an

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Speaker 4: immutable force that we uh, it's a freshole equilibrium. But

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Speaker 4: we in the US cannot afford you have a term

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Speaker 4: premium that blows out because the debt will become you know,

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Speaker 4: unmanageable and so on. So I think they'll at the

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Speaker 4: end of the day that's going to be contained. But

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Speaker 4: the fact that people are asking those questions it is

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Speaker 4: certainly notable.

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Speaker 2: Jean, thank you so much. Doctor Bovan with Blackrock thrilled

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Speaker 2: that he could be with us today.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch US Live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Brian Kingston is hugely qualified. He's got a fancy title

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Speaker 2: with the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association, but he's all also,

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Speaker 2: I got bulletproof academics led by Carlton University on trade

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Speaker 2: and on what it means for auto manufacturers. What is

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Speaker 2: the biggest conceit myth thing we get wrong, Brian about

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Speaker 2: that bridge between Windsor and Detroit.

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Speaker 7: Well, look, I think the biggest myth that we see

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Speaker 7: there is that this bridge and the bilott of relationship

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Speaker 7: in auto between Canada and the US primarily benefits Canada

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Speaker 7: when the fact is we're so deeply integrated over sixty

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Speaker 7: years and now the United States actually has an automotive

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Speaker 7: surplus with Canada. And what many people don't realize is

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Speaker 7: that Canada is the largest export destination for US manufactured

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Speaker 7: vehicles by far. The Americans send more cars to Canada

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Speaker 7: than they do to China, Germany, and Mexico combined. So

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Speaker 7: we're deeply integrated and we effectively build vehicles together.

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Speaker 2: What is the tone of the layoffs right now? Over

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Speaker 2: a beverage of my choice, I'm noting Volva laying off.

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Speaker 2: I believe it was nine hundred people. But give us

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Speaker 2: the immediate Thursday morning state of the labor economy in

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Speaker 2: this trade war.

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Speaker 7: Well, look, it's all about uncertainty at the moment. Automotive

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Speaker 7: is a huge sector in Canada. We've got over one

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Speaker 7: hundred and thirty thousand Canadians directly employed in manufacturing, but

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Speaker 7: if you look at the broader industry impact, it's closer

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Speaker 7: to half a million. And there's just no clarity on

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Speaker 7: what the path forward is right now. I mean, the

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Speaker 7: tariffs are on, then they're off. The interpretation of the

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Speaker 7: tariffs changes consistently, so for anybody in this industry, it's

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Speaker 7: just so difficult to plan right now, and of course

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Speaker 7: that has a huge impact on the labor market.

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Speaker 2: Okay, one thousand, Henry Ford's center drive Yep, and Google

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Speaker 2: misspelled it. It's center. They misspelled center. I don't understand

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Speaker 2: that this is in Windsor Ford Motor Company, Windsor Engine plant, Paul.

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Speaker 2: Imagine the conversation in there this morning.

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Speaker 5: So, Brian, when you talk to the k and manufacturers,

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Speaker 5: what are they doing today? How are they planning? How

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Speaker 5: are they are they just kind of how are they

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Speaker 5: just going day to day?

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Speaker 7: Well, what we're seeing is because of the uncertainty, it

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Speaker 7: makes it very difficult for companies to move forward with investments,

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Speaker 7: to deploy new capital, of course, and Canada has received

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Speaker 7: over forty billion dollars in new auto investments since twenty twenty,

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Speaker 7: huge reinvestment into the industry. A lot of that's related

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Speaker 7: to electric vehicle production. So there are some big, big

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Speaker 7: projects underway or on the books, but until we have

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Speaker 7: clarity on the tariff situation, it's very difficult to proceed.

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Speaker 7: And just to give you a sense of how expensive

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Speaker 7: these tariffs are, we're estimating that US based manufacturers are

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Speaker 7: going to incur about one hundred and seven point seven

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Speaker 7: billion dollars in cost if they remain in plate So

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Speaker 7: what makes it hard to move forward with any project?

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Speaker 2: We're talking with Jean Beavan, Blackrock, you know, Montreal, Brian,

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Speaker 2: it's a city up to the right, it's up this

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Speaker 2: Saint Lawrence. We're talking with Joe Bovent And to me,

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Speaker 2: the basic idea is this word negotiation. I don't know

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Speaker 2: what it means. What if whoever the new Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: of Canada, what if they just say no to President Trump,

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Speaker 2: We're not going to participate in this trade war. What

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Speaker 2: are the consequences for Lower Canada and Upper Canada?

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Speaker 7: All the consequences are are massive. I mean, the Canadian

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Speaker 7: economy is so highly dependent and integrated with the US,

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Speaker 7: you know, and that goes back to we had a

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Speaker 7: bilateral trade agreement initially then NAFTA and of course now

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Speaker 7: the US MCA. And because of that, all of our

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Speaker 7: supply chains are on a north south basis. So it's

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Speaker 7: not as though Canada has the ability to diversify and

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Speaker 7: do it quickly, pivot to Asia Europe. We are truly

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Speaker 7: connected with the American economy. So you know, I think

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Speaker 7: negotiating with the US day one for the incoming Prime

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Speaker 7: minister has got to be the top priority. And for

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Speaker 7: auto over nine eighty percent of what we build in

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Speaker 7: Canada goes to the United States. That's how the industry

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Speaker 7: has that we found it.

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Speaker 3: That is zero amazing, Brian.

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Speaker 5: What does all this uncertainty within the auto industry mean

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Speaker 5: for the transition to electric vehicles? It seems like it

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Speaker 5: was kind of sputtering anyway. People were unsure about the demand.

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Speaker 5: I can't charge so on and so forth. The prices

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Speaker 5: are too high. Does this make the transition to EV's

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Speaker 5: even more difficult? Is that what you're hearing from some

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Speaker 5: of your manufacturers.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, it definitely does. I mean, first of all, we're

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Speaker 7: anticipating because of the terrorists that vehicle prices could go

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Speaker 7: up by as little as forty seven hundred US dollars,

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Speaker 7: but could increase up to over ten thousand US dollars.

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Speaker 7: And for EV adoption that's particularly problematic because evs are

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Speaker 7: more expensive. It's still a new technology, and so you

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Speaker 7: price gap in Canada of about fourteen thousand dollars between

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Speaker 7: a gas powered vehicle and an electric vehicle. So now

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Speaker 7: you throw in the economic uncertainty that these tariffs are

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Speaker 7: creating the potential for a downturn, which obviously has an

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Speaker 7: impact on new vehicle sales, plus a price gap that

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Speaker 7: could even widen because a lot of the battery components

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Speaker 7: come from other parts of the world which will be

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Speaker 7: impacted by the US reciprocal tariffs. And it doesn't add

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Speaker 7: up to a good situation for ev adoption.

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Speaker 2: Got one, This is brilliant, Brian. I got one final question,

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Speaker 2: whether the Canadians are going to Myrtle Beach or Palm Beach.

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Speaker 2: It's over, isn't it.

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Speaker 7: Nobody's traveling right, No, I mean, the the numbers that

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Speaker 7: we're seeing are just phenomenal. Some of our major border crossings,

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Speaker 7: you're seeing travel down in some instances over forty percent.

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Speaker 7: And so Canadians have really taken this personally. We're so

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Speaker 7: closely tied to America and it's been such a strong

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Speaker 7: relationship that a lot of Canadians just feel really kind

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Speaker 7: of saddened by what's going on, and so they're canceling trips.

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Speaker 7: So it is having a big impact on the tourism industry.

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Speaker 2: We look for just speaking to you again. Brian Kingston's

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Speaker 2: President of the chief executive officer the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers

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Speaker 2: Association and is closely affiliated with a VAMP Forum, which

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Speaker 2: is a wonderful economic effort up at Canada.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Hugh von Steinas with you yesterday with Oliver Wyman. When

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Speaker 2: Hu von Steinas wants to understand sanctions, there's one person

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Speaker 2: he turns to joining us now from Oliver Wyman in Washington,

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Speaker 2: Daniel Tannembaum. He's been a huge support for all of

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Speaker 2: our efforts here. Just you know tannabomb one oh one,

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Speaker 2: Dan Tannerbaum. Has sanctions against Russia been successful?

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Speaker 6: Well, Tom, thank you for the intro, and it was

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Speaker 6: good to see Hugh on yesterday. I think sanctions on

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Speaker 6: Russia have played a role, But I think the challenge

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Speaker 6: we've seen, particularly since Trump has taken office again, is

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Speaker 6: the US really hasn't been driving on sanctions policy much

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Speaker 6: at all. When I talked to my clients in the

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Speaker 6: European Union, in the UK government, they're really not getting

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Speaker 6: the same level of engagement. So without the continued usage

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Speaker 6: of sanctions and then the enforcement of them for those

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Speaker 6: who would violate them, it is hard to say that

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Speaker 6: they're actually effective.

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Speaker 5: So, Daniel, you're done in Washington, DC, the IMF meetings here,

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Speaker 5: What are our trading partners telling you about kind of

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Speaker 5: where they think the next hours will be, days will be,

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Speaker 5: in weeks and months.

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Speaker 6: Well, I mean we talked about this at Davos. Cautious

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Speaker 6: optimism I think has shifted into just pure fatigue at

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Speaker 6: this point. I think we saw the market spikes over

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Speaker 6: the last few days with the announcements related to China.

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Speaker 6: But my anticipation last night was we hadn't heard from China,

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Speaker 6: and obviously we did over and their reaction was we're

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Speaker 6: not actually talking. So everyone's really looking for smooth air,

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Speaker 6: for some degree of a clear path forward, and I

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Speaker 6: just don't think we're seeing that yet.

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Speaker 2: Dan, at George Washington University a few years ago you

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Speaker 2: took the courses. Is brutal. You think you're going to

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Speaker 2: go in and get an a tannabomb. Was lucky you

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Speaker 2: got out with the C plus negotiation three to two tannabomb.

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Speaker 2: When President Trump says he's negotiating, is he negotiating?

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Speaker 6: Well, that's the question. I mean, there are certainly some

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Speaker 6: talks going on bilaterally with different trading partners post liberation Day,

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Speaker 6: but China's made very clear we don't know what you're

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Speaker 6: talking about. And that is a bit of the question

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Speaker 6: right now of where is this discussion happening. Some countries

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Speaker 6: are certainly having them, but remember all of these deals

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Speaker 6: in ninety days was always going to be a tall order,

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Speaker 6: and China is the one that probably requires the most attention,

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Speaker 6: more so than anyone.

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Speaker 5: So, Daniel, are we literally going to be trying to

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Speaker 5: negotiate seventy odd trading negotiations and deals and all that

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Speaker 5: kind of stuff?

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Speaker 3: Is that what we're Is that our strategy.

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Speaker 6: If you're to listen to people like Peter Navarro, Yes,

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Speaker 6: because we're not doing this in any sort of block form.

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Speaker 6: These are really one off trade deals where we had

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Speaker 6: kind of broader alliances where you could impose trade on

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Speaker 6: a broader scale. So that does seem like what may happen.

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Speaker 6: I hope there'll be broader blocks that come in for

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Speaker 6: some of the discussions with USTR and other parts of

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Speaker 6: the government, but that is a bit of the question

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Speaker 6: at this point of how they're going to navigate all

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Speaker 6: of these.

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Speaker 2: Now, Dantannabam, I want to come back to that discussion

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Speaker 2: of doctor Navarro with some real criticism. I would say,

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Speaker 2: within the Zeit case of doctor Navarro and Paul, would

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Speaker 2: you say he's been sidelined the last week or two.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I certainly have not seen him as much as

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Speaker 5: we had it right.

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Speaker 2: I could never see Dantannabam's sideline norigy. Mister Tannabob's going

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Speaker 2: to stay with us with Oliver Wyman here as we

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Speaker 2: get this key claim data out here, we say good

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Speaker 2: morning to all of you across the nation on your commute.

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Speaker 2: The kept goods orders and non defense exit they come

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Speaker 2: in and they're a little I'm going to call them

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Speaker 2: a little shaky as well, and claims are spot on

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Speaker 2: survey once again, Michael McKee absolutely nailing it that DOSEE

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Speaker 2: doesn't have much to do with claims because claims come

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Speaker 2: in post severance. We have a two hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: two thousand statistic a non revision as well, So pretty

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Speaker 2: much quiescent claims. Here is somebody waits the cracking of

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Speaker 2: the job economy. All of our economic data, our study

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Speaker 2: of it, including Michigan sentiment tomorrow up on a lot

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Speaker 2: of housing data next week. It's brought to you by Commonwealth.

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Speaker 2: We're going to jump back to Dan Tanabaum with Oliver Wyman.

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Speaker 2: His claims came in quietly, a non event d'An tanabam,

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Speaker 2: just the summation of all the corporate officers you talk to.

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Speaker 2: They're talking to you about sanctions. What are you listening

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Speaker 2: for from corporate America?

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Speaker 6: Well, they're not just talking to me about sanctions. We're

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Speaker 6: spending a lot of time talking about broader trade policy.

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Speaker 6: And right now, the question that people are asking, even

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Speaker 6: though they know the answer they're going to get, is

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Speaker 6: where do we go from here? And I think that

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Speaker 6: is the real question people are craving. The market is

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Speaker 6: craving some degree of a clear path forward, whether it's

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Speaker 6: more broadly on trade, I mean the topic of Russia Ukraine. Admittedly,

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Speaker 6: it's been very quiet here in Washington this week on

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Speaker 6: the topic, despite the fact that there were nine more

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Speaker 6: people killed in an attack on Kiev last night, and

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Speaker 6: the US is busy trying to put pressure on the

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Speaker 6: Ukrainians for a deal, and not the Russians who were

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Speaker 6: the one firing the missiles in Ukraine. So it is

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Speaker 6: a bit of an odd time at the moment. But

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Speaker 6: I think a lot of companies are standing by waiting

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Speaker 6: for some degree of a clear path forward. We're going

439
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 6: back and forth so quickly now.

440
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 2: I mean, this is really really interesting. And of course

441
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 2: here's the tweet from President Trump as he listens to

442
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,400
Speaker 2: Dan Tannebam. I am not happy with the Russian strikes

443
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 2: on Kiev. Not necessary and very bed timing. Vladimir all

444
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 2: caps stop, exclamation point. Five thousand soldiers a week are dying.

445
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 2: Let's get the peace steel done, Dann. That wasn't in

446
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 2: your textbooks at George Washington. I mean this, you know

447
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 2: I'm going to go back to angry beavers. I mean,

448
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 2: that's where I learned my international relations. Dan Tannabam, this

449
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 2: is nuts. We had a palm Sunday set of murders.

450
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 2: We had the missile attacks last night in the heart

451
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 2: oft Kiev. Why are we doing this, Dan tannebomb.

452
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 6: Well, and you know, it's wonderful. The President was pissed

453
00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 6: at Putin a few weeks ago. I think we saw

454
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 6: that on one of the Sunday morning shows. But he

455
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,360
Speaker 6: needs to actually take action against Russia. There have been

456
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 6: two major moves that the US has made on Russia

457
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 6: since Trump has taken office again. One was by quietly

458
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 6: extending Biden error Russia sanctions a week and a half

459
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 6: ago with little fanfare. The other was actually by not

460
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 6: doing something and letting an energy waiver expire to ban

461
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 6: the trading or financing of Russian energy. But the President

462
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 6: needs to be more active on actually using the considerable

463
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 6: power that the US government has to put more pressure

464
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 6: on Russia and those supporting it.

465
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 2: Mister tannab I'm really honored to have you here as

466
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 2: we get that tweek from the President of the United States.

467
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 2: Daniel Tannebaum is with Oliver Wyman.

468
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,880
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

469
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Karplay and Android

470
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

471
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

472
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

473
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:03,880
Speaker 2: Tina Fordham joins US now with Fordham Global. For say,

474
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,640
Speaker 2: when she was in school a few years ago, there

475
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 2: was no course on how to interpret tweets. Tina Fordham

476
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 2: Vladimir Kamma all caps stop, exclamation point. That's what we

477
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 2: got from the President of the United States today. How

478
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 2: does this move forward? Do we move our foreign diplomacy

479
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 2: of Kissingerian real politic of those against Henry Kissinger? Do

480
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 2: we move it forward by tweet?

481
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 8: You have no idea how painful your words are to someone.

482
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 8: I mean, I've had the immense privilege of interviewing Henry

483
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 8: Kissinger a couple of times before he left US, and

484
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:58,880
Speaker 8: I am a great admirer of his colleagues Malan Albright

485
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 8: and other is you know, yes, we are. This is

486
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 8: the tictokification of global politics and it's definitely not helping

487
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 8: investors in business leaders or global leaders work out how

488
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 8: to deal with United States, although it will cause jubilation

489
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 8: in some quarters.

490
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 5: So I don't know, Tina is is it as simple

491
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 5: as to say that the era of US economic exceptionalism

492
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 5: is that at risk here?

493
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 8: So I mean that expression which has become part of

494
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 8: investor parlance. US exceptionalism, of course predates this period by

495
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 8: a very long time. The US is the exceptional nation,

496
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 8: you know. So that goes back to manifest destiny and

497
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 8: this idea of the US as having this, you know,

498
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,399
Speaker 8: all of these special privileges before we got to the

499
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 8: dollar having exorbitant privilege. It is hard to see how

500
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 8: this trend can be reversed in an enduring way. Quickly said,

501
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 8: that's me being diplomatic. I think Ken Griffin said something

502
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 8: with a bit more alarm in his remarks. But as

503
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:26,640
Speaker 8: we're talking about sorry secretaries of State, I was thinking

504
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 8: about Madlon Albright and the US as the indispensable nation.

505
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 8: We're seeing the consequences now of the US deciding it

506
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 8: doesn't want that job anymore.

507
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 2: What's so interesting here is in the business world, somebody

508
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 2: will comment on your own Powell, and I guess we

509
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 2: have adults within the administration counseling the president. According to reports,

510
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 2: including our Josh Wingrove, Sir, maybe you don't want to

511
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 2: say that, maybe you want to back up in the

512
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 2: teen of Fordham World. Are there adults within our diplomacy

513
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 2: or frankly at the Pentagon advising the president for example,

514
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 2: on Ukraine? Sir, maybe you don't want to say that,

515
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 2: back up? Where's Rubio on this?

516
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 8: It certainly appears. I mean, experts were not in the

517
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 8: room a long time ago, and serious people are marginalized.

518
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 8: And when you have these what can only be I

519
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 8: guess leaks about Scott Bescent having to wait until Howard

520
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:33,679
Speaker 8: Lutnik was in a different part of the White House

521
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:37,120
Speaker 8: to get the President to write out a tweet. This

522
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 8: is where the CEOs that we talked to are starting

523
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 8: to say, Okay, this is not three dimensional chess, if

524
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 8: it ever was. This is haphazard.

525
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 5: So what do you advise your clients here is it?

526
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm just looking at the markets. It's been

527
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 5: selling stocks, it's been selling the US dollar, it's been

528
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 5: buying gold, I guess, But I mean, what are your

529
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 5: discussions with your clients like these days?

530
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 8: I mean, in practical terms, this is an extremely difficult

531
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 8: time to be the CEO of a company that has

532
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 8: to get any goods from anywhere else. You know, there

533
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 8: is no question that it's complex. What we are seeing

534
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 8: is the you know, the natural impulse is to say,

535
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 8: let's wait and see, let's wait for a bit more

536
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 8: clarity to emerge, for the dust to settle. And there's

537
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 8: always this temptation, isn't there to say, you know, right,

538
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 8: musk is up or out, or so and so is down.

539
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 8: This is noise. I think we're moving out of the

540
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 8: era of trying to read the president's mind and get

541
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 8: in his good graces. We saw some side deals, whether

542
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 8: it's Columbia University, my alma mater, or some US law firms,

543
00:29:56,040 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 8: but we're starting to see more assertive pushback. Not across

544
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 8: the board. Harvard can do this. Perhaps some other companies

545
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 8: are are you know, in a position and feel they

546
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 8: have influence on the discussion, But the pushback is starting.

547
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 2: Tina, thank you so much. Too short of visit Tina

548
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 2: Fordum with this Fordum Blue Foresight.

549
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

550
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

551
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

552
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

553
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

554
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 2: Right to it with the newspapers. Here's Lisa Mateo.

555
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 9: Okay, yeah, we all know, right the gold market surgeon.

556
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 9: Remember at top about thirty five hundred dollars an ounce

557
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 9: on Tuesday. So one hot spot for precious metal collectors.

558
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 9: Can you guess where it is?

559
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 2: Imagine?

560
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 9: Yes, Costco Costco telling you gold bars, coins, They sell

561
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 9: them online some of the store. But here's the thing

562
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 9: that's different now, it's shoppers. They are cashing in on

563
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 9: the company's rewards for gold purchases. So you had the

564
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 9: Costco executive members using the Costco City credit card who

565
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 9: could see a net reward of about one to two

566
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 9: percent of the purchase price. So they're buying thousands of

567
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 9: dollars in these gold you know, coins or bars, and

568
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 9: they're getting that little incentive that little cake back.

569
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 2: Does she have a deal? We don't know, I.

570
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 5: Mean, ZiT down.

571
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 2: Did she number new kat Kirkland address?

572
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 3: So next?

573
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 9: Okay, for those of you out there who have a

574
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 9: child who's graduating the class of twenty twenty five, some

575
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 9: pretty bad news that the job market not looking so bright.

576
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 9: The Wall Street Journal kind of looks into this with

577
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 9: a couple steadies. Employers are now expecting to hire the

578
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,479
Speaker 9: same number of graduates and they did last year, and

579
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 9: that's really down because it was supposed to be a

580
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 9: seven point three percent increase. Another report showing consulting firms

581
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 9: or actually planning to hire fewer graduates, and those are

582
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 9: the ones like the potential first employer for a lot

583
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 9: of college grads. So that's another thing that's falling back.

584
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 9: So they're just saying that the future out there is

585
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 9: not so bright right now as of this current.

586
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 2: The history of this, folks, is when it goes, it goes.

587
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 2: When you get more difficult unemployment numbers. It's not some

588
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 2: glide path. It's like suddenly, boom, I wonder if that's

589
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 2: where we are in thirty three minutes next.

590
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 9: Yes, yes, and we missed this yesterday, but a big

591
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 9: milestone for YouTube twenty years old yesterday, so it hit

592
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 9: this milestone celebration. It's really taken off. The first video

593
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 9: upload was yes April twenty third, two thousand and five.

594
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 9: It wasn't really exciting. It was just this man standing

595
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 9: in front of an elephant exclosure at the San Diego Zoo.

596
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 9: Take a listen to it.

597
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 7: So here we are one of the elephants. And cool

598
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 7: thing what these guys spent is that they have really

599
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:59,719
Speaker 7: really really long trunk trunks.

600
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 9: Told you're not that exciting, but the guy was actually

601
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 9: one of the platform's founders who left the company two

602
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 9: thousand and six. But it just shows how it's grown

603
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 9: like it has. You know, it's given TV a run

604
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 9: for its money, right the platform has rising stars. People

605
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 9: go there for reviews. I know, people check out vacations, hotels, restaurants,

606
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 9: things like that. Even music videos, especially guys.

607
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 6: This one.

608
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 9: It was the first music video on the Internet to

609
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 9: reach one billion views op.

610
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 2: On Coardam Stars Condam Star, Yes to.

611
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 1: Me Racket Now.

612
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 9: That is South Korean singer rapper Side That was one

613
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 9: of my favorite jams July twenty twelve. It was incredible,

614
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 9: one billion, the first to hit one billions.

615
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 2: Today because you had a sugar gelato? Is that what

616
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 2: this is about. It's incredible. That's going to be in

617
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:04,719
Speaker 2: my newspaper. And they came to me just over fifteen

618
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:08,080
Speaker 2: months ago and they said, Tom, we want to do

619
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 2: YouTube internationally and I said, yeah, whatever, And I've been

620
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 2: absolutely mumbled by the international growth of what we're doing.

621
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,240
Speaker 2: We say good evening to all of you in Asia

622
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 2: Gham style. Remember the ham stock? Where did that come from?

623
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 5: South Korea?

624
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 2: Yes, good morning in South Korea?

625
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 3: Why did you give us?

626
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 2: We say good morningredible? That's wonderful, Lisa Mateo, thank you

627
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 2: so much the newspapers.

628
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

629
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

630
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

631
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

632
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

633
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Don't se