WEBVTT - Fractured Israel Unites Around a Singular Goal

0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:05.680
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:09.440
<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

0:00:09.520 --> 0:00:13.680
<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:19.000
<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:23.479
<v Speaker 2>It is day four, heading into day five since the

0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:27.080
<v Speaker 2>surprise Hamas attack on Israel, and in today's Bloomberg Big Take,

0:00:27.120 --> 0:00:30.080
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News Israel bureau chief who we talked to yesterday,

0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:34.360
<v Speaker 2>Ethan Brauner, writes about a nation in which a political

0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:37.680
<v Speaker 2>divisions have really driven anti government protesters into the streets

0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:40.360
<v Speaker 2>for nine months. That's been the backdrop ahead of this

0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:44.000
<v Speaker 2>and that have now those divisions have now vanished in

0:00:44.040 --> 0:00:47.159
<v Speaker 2>the face of Hamasa's slaughter at the weekend and fears

0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:49.559
<v Speaker 2>that the conflict could spread to Lebanon. You know, we

0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:53.360
<v Speaker 2>see that this right tim often tough times, conflict can

0:00:53.400 --> 0:00:55.320
<v Speaker 2>often bring divided sides together.

0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:57.720
<v Speaker 3>The question is, I think how long this lasts, especially

0:00:57.760 --> 0:01:01.080
<v Speaker 3>in a government that has been divided divided for such

0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:02.720
<v Speaker 3>a long time. With more on how the nation has

0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:05.039
<v Speaker 3>come together and yet the risks that still face it's

0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:08.240
<v Speaker 3>politically challenged and questioned. Prime Minister Benjamin net and Yahoo.

0:01:08.520 --> 0:01:12.360
<v Speaker 3>We've got Bloomberg News economy and government reporter Khalat Alstein

0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:15.160
<v Speaker 3>joining us on Zoom from Tel Aviv right now. Ghalat,

0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:17.280
<v Speaker 3>good to have you with us. First of all, I

0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:19.880
<v Speaker 3>just want to say thanks for joining us, especially so

0:01:20.000 --> 0:01:22.759
<v Speaker 3>late and in a time that you know, people are

0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:25.280
<v Speaker 3>so concerned about their security in Tel Aviv. Just just

0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:27.320
<v Speaker 3>give us an idea of what you're experiencing right now,

0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:32.639
<v Speaker 3>what you're seeing, and really what you're doing, so as.

0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:36.520
<v Speaker 4>You're asking me on a personal note. So yeah, So,

0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:41.120
<v Speaker 4>actually Tel Aviv has also been targeted over the past

0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:47.039
<v Speaker 4>four days. I live in a very northern vicinity of

0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:50.000
<v Speaker 4>Tel Aviv, so I think it's a little less targeted

0:01:50.080 --> 0:01:53.840
<v Speaker 4>than other parts of the city. But we did have

0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:57.040
<v Speaker 4>two missile alerts today, had to go down to the

0:01:57.080 --> 0:02:02.000
<v Speaker 4>bomb shelter. It is now around ten to thirty pm here,

0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:04.960
<v Speaker 4>so there were they were saying on the news a

0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:10.200
<v Speaker 4>bit earlier that missiles were expected to be shot at

0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:14.000
<v Speaker 4>Tel Aviv at nine pm. That didn't happen up till now,

0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:16.560
<v Speaker 4>but some people are still, you know, waiting to see

0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:19.480
<v Speaker 4>if that happens. And that's basically what's going on on

0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:20.840
<v Speaker 4>the ground here in Tel Aviv.

0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:22.799
<v Speaker 3>Ugalie are you are you? Is it to the point

0:02:22.800 --> 0:02:24.919
<v Speaker 3>where you're you know, the missiles are coming and they're

0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:27.880
<v Speaker 3>being intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system.

0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:32.320
<v Speaker 4>So yes, hopefully so it is. You know, as you

0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:35.160
<v Speaker 4>probably will know, this is a very efficient system that

0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:39.160
<v Speaker 4>that Israel has you know, made up and built and

0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:42.400
<v Speaker 4>has made operational. But it does, you know, miss sometimes

0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:45.359
<v Speaker 4>so but most of the times it's it's pretty accurate

0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:49.160
<v Speaker 4>and it does an amazing job at intercepting the missiles.

0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:53.560
<v Speaker 2>Yes, you know, in covering it yesterday here certainly at

0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:56.040
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg and during our live broadcast were some of the

0:02:56.040 --> 0:02:59.640
<v Speaker 2>headlines that came out of Benjamin not in Yahoo's evening

0:02:59.720 --> 0:03:03.440
<v Speaker 2>televised address the Prime Minister of course and talking about

0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:08.920
<v Speaker 2>unifying government. Tell us about remind our world about the

0:03:08.960 --> 0:03:13.200
<v Speaker 2>backdrop that's been Israel for the last nine or ten months.

0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:19.360
<v Speaker 4>Yeah so so. Benjamin Ataniel, who's Israel's longest ever reigning

0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:23.960
<v Speaker 4>prime minister, came back to power at the very end

0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:26.600
<v Speaker 4>of last year, at the very end of December last year,

0:03:27.160 --> 0:03:31.760
<v Speaker 4>and he put together a governing coalition that is constituted

0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:38.560
<v Speaker 4>of very far right nationalist parties and Orthodox parties, Jewish

0:03:38.680 --> 0:03:44.640
<v Speaker 4>Orthodox parties, making that the I think, you know, you

0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:48.680
<v Speaker 4>can say that that is like the most some would

0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:52.000
<v Speaker 4>say the most right leaning government Israel has ever had.

0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:55.600
<v Speaker 4>Some would say it is the most extreme government the

0:03:56.560 --> 0:04:00.560
<v Speaker 4>Israel has ever had. And on that backdrop, after the

0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:04.640
<v Speaker 4>government transformed, just as Justice Ministerry live Levine, who was

0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:08.680
<v Speaker 4>a member of Benjamin Ataniella's party that he could, came

0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:12.240
<v Speaker 4>out and put out an announcement that he is initiating

0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:16.320
<v Speaker 4>a judicial overhaul which was basically meant to weaken the

0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:19.719
<v Speaker 4>power of courts, mainly the Supreme Court Israel Supreme Court,

0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:25.640
<v Speaker 4>and that immediately brought on very intense public protests that

0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:29.560
<v Speaker 4>went on until last Saturday. So it went on for

0:04:29.560 --> 0:04:33.880
<v Speaker 4>forty weeks straight. It got bigger and bigger as time

0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:38.279
<v Speaker 4>went by and the weeks went on, and it turned

0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:41.200
<v Speaker 4>out to be the biggest protest movement that Israel had

0:04:41.200 --> 0:04:45.880
<v Speaker 4>ever seen. And the division was very, very big, and

0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:49.240
<v Speaker 4>you know, it was felt everywhere because I think that

0:04:49.320 --> 0:04:51.800
<v Speaker 4>in my perception and I think many will tell you

0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:55.200
<v Speaker 4>that that at some point it went away beyond the

0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:58.680
<v Speaker 4>controversial judicial overhaul, which is always at the foundation of

0:04:58.760 --> 0:05:01.920
<v Speaker 4>things but you know, it was a very big opposition

0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:05.120
<v Speaker 4>to Nathaniel's government because a lot of other things that

0:05:05.160 --> 0:05:08.360
<v Speaker 4>they were trying to pass through in Parliament and in

0:05:08.400 --> 0:05:11.520
<v Speaker 4>other ways that a big part of the public very

0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:12.320
<v Speaker 4>much resented.

0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:16.159
<v Speaker 2>Here, It's safe to say his political future was much

0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:20.000
<v Speaker 2>in question now as he seeks a more unified government,

0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:24.159
<v Speaker 2>and you understand why everyone would be rallying, you know,

0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:27.520
<v Speaker 2>behind unification, or at least everybody kind of on the

0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.520
<v Speaker 2>same mission, if you will, in terms of any kind

0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:34.839
<v Speaker 2>of retaliation. Does it change the political course of Benjamin

0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:35.640
<v Speaker 2>net and Yahoo?

0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:42.400
<v Speaker 4>Not necessarily. I mean, I don't think so. You know,

0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:45.720
<v Speaker 4>there's been a lot of dog that's being pushed back,

0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:50.120
<v Speaker 4>both by Israeli officials, Israeli politicians, leaders, and also by

0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:53.520
<v Speaker 4>some you know, people in the general public. So there's

0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:56.080
<v Speaker 4>been a big pushback, you know on the questions of

0:05:56.120 --> 0:05:58.840
<v Speaker 4>you know, how this even happened, right, I mean, it's

0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:02.479
<v Speaker 4>it's pretty amazing that that that even happened to a

0:06:02.520 --> 0:06:03.600
<v Speaker 4>country like Israel.

0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:07.000
<v Speaker 2>Is he being held responsible for that? Within sight? What's

0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:10.359
<v Speaker 2>what's the conversations that you you are hearing there in

0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:13.719
<v Speaker 2>industry all about his responsibility for missing on the intelligence

0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:14.400
<v Speaker 2>side of things.

0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:17.839
<v Speaker 4>So you know, some people are saying that he has

0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:21.760
<v Speaker 4>a big part in it. You know, obviously most people

0:06:21.760 --> 0:06:24.160
<v Speaker 4>think that there was you know, an intelligence failure here,

0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:27.280
<v Speaker 4>but there is talk about you know, first of all,

0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:30.520
<v Speaker 4>him being responsible for for everything that goes on as

0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:34.560
<v Speaker 4>Prime minister, and also that pressure that the government had

0:06:34.640 --> 0:06:41.440
<v Speaker 4>put for instance, to shift military powers from the Gaza

0:06:41.480 --> 0:06:46.480
<v Speaker 4>area to the West Bank, for instance, to secure settlements,

0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:49.719
<v Speaker 4>especially during the Jewish holidays that they were just you

0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:52.880
<v Speaker 4>know coming to an end just last Saturday. So so

0:06:52.880 --> 0:06:54.920
<v Speaker 4>so they're also saying, you know, it's so so it's

0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:59.000
<v Speaker 4>not just his overall responsibility for the situation, but actually,

0:06:59.040 --> 0:07:02.039
<v Speaker 4>you know, some some things that were brought on by

0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:05.680
<v Speaker 4>his government, by their policies, by you know how much

0:07:05.720 --> 0:07:09.200
<v Speaker 4>they wanted to go towards the settlements, you know, and

0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:11.840
<v Speaker 4>allow them to do things in the West Bank that

0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:14.960
<v Speaker 4>needed a lot of security. So so, yes, he is

0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:16.720
<v Speaker 4>being blamed for this.

0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:18.880
<v Speaker 3>So I just want to clarify. I just want to clarify.

0:07:18.920 --> 0:07:24.200
<v Speaker 3>Are you saying focusing and instead of focusing on the

0:07:24.240 --> 0:07:29.080
<v Speaker 3>border with Gaza, potentially moving resources from that area to

0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:29.800
<v Speaker 3>the West Bank.

0:07:30.960 --> 0:07:33.720
<v Speaker 4>Yes, that is that is part of the conversation here

0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.640
<v Speaker 4>in Israel. I want to be clear that it is not,

0:07:37.240 --> 0:07:39.880
<v Speaker 4>you know, one hundred percent of the conversation that everyone

0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:42.360
<v Speaker 4>is saying this, and even the people are saying this,

0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:44.360
<v Speaker 4>you know, are not saying that this is you know,

0:07:44.440 --> 0:07:47.239
<v Speaker 4>one hundred percent to you know, he's one hundred percent

0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:50.240
<v Speaker 4>to be blamed for what happened. But there is talk

0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:53.240
<v Speaker 4>about the specific point that I was just talking about

0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:57.840
<v Speaker 4>that because they wanted to allow settlers in Judean and

0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:02.720
<v Speaker 4>Samaria to have all these ceremonies and all these events

0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:08.120
<v Speaker 4>during the Jewish holiday season, they did move some military powers.

0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:10.160
<v Speaker 4>They did shift them to the West Bank, and this

0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:14.760
<v Speaker 4>left Gaza a little bears, as you know, in relevance

0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:18.760
<v Speaker 4>to what is usually over there in terms of military powers.

0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:23.680
<v Speaker 2>Just got about a minute or so left, forty five seconds, goalie,

0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:27.200
<v Speaker 2>I can't even imagine, you know, to be in your shoes.

0:08:27.360 --> 0:08:29.040
<v Speaker 2>What are you thinking at this point as you look

0:08:29.080 --> 0:08:30.640
<v Speaker 2>at out towards the rest of the week.

0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:35.160
<v Speaker 4>Well, you know, if you listen to the rhetoric of

0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:38.800
<v Speaker 4>everyone you know who's been speaking to US leaders, idea

0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:42.880
<v Speaker 4>of officials, they're speaking about a very very long military

0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:45.760
<v Speaker 4>operation that's coming ahead and there's a big question if

0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:49.880
<v Speaker 4>Lebanon will be joininge and Lebanon will be joining in.

0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:51.839
<v Speaker 4>And this is you know, this is causing a lot

0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:54.600
<v Speaker 4>of concern. I'm speaking now, you know, of the civilians

0:08:54.600 --> 0:08:57.800
<v Speaker 4>of the general public in Israel, because you know, when

0:08:57.800 --> 0:09:00.040
<v Speaker 4>there was a war in Israel, then the public is

0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:03.280
<v Speaker 4>targeted by missiles, and when you look at Prisbella, there

0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:06.080
<v Speaker 4>are a much bigger threats in that sense than come us.

0:09:06.760 --> 0:09:10.160
<v Speaker 4>So you know, people are concerned, and you know, it's

0:09:10.160 --> 0:09:12.360
<v Speaker 4>pretty clear that we're looking at something that's going to

0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:17.360
<v Speaker 4>be very long, ongoing weeks, maybe months, and we have

0:09:17.440 --> 0:09:18.440
<v Speaker 4>to see how it plays out.

0:09:18.920 --> 0:09:20.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and this is something we talked about yesterday. I

0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:23.880
<v Speaker 2>think somebody referred to it as Iranian proxies? Was it

0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:26.920
<v Speaker 2>Lebanon and some other areas in terms of as this

0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:30.360
<v Speaker 2>size and scope may expand out. Khaleat, stay safe and

0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:34.080
<v Speaker 2>thank you so much. Galita Alstein on zoom from Tel Aviv,

0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:36.240
<v Speaker 2>of course, Bloomberg News Economy and Government Reporter.

0:09:37.400 --> 0:09:40.960
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:44.360
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on

0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:48.160
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com. The iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business

0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:50.440
<v Speaker 1>app or watch us live on YouTube.

0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:54.480
<v Speaker 2>That ipo for burken Stock pricing at forty six dollars

0:09:54.480 --> 0:09:56.719
<v Speaker 2>a share, coming from Wall Street Journal. It was a

0:09:56.840 --> 0:09:59.520
<v Speaker 2>range of forty four to forty nine. So just to

0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:02.440
<v Speaker 2>give an eye da in there point right, they were

0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:05.000
<v Speaker 2>looking different. Raised about one point six billions. It'll be

0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:05.880
<v Speaker 2>a little bit below that.

0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:07.199
<v Speaker 3>You have burks thirty two.

0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:11.840
<v Speaker 2>I have some books. Yeah, they belong to my daughter

0:10:11.880 --> 0:10:12.080
<v Speaker 2>I had.

0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:15.920
<v Speaker 3>Did you Yeah, like probably high school.

0:10:16.240 --> 0:10:17.720
<v Speaker 2>Of course you were there, you lived in Califori.

0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:20.240
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they were like they're yeah. I mean they're back

0:10:20.280 --> 0:10:23.040
<v Speaker 3>now now they're cool. I wasn't cool then. I'm not

0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:23.520
<v Speaker 3>cool now.

0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:25.040
<v Speaker 2>Just wear them because you were kind of a nerdy

0:10:25.080 --> 0:10:25.760
<v Speaker 2>California kid.

0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:26.960
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's exactly right.

0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:32.120
<v Speaker 2>I wonder if bike CEOs wear them.

0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:35.160
<v Speaker 3>It depends on this. Just hanging out, yeah, you know

0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:37.280
<v Speaker 3>at the beach. Yeah, maybe wearing some berks.

0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:40.120
<v Speaker 2>No, you can't see it anyway. We do have big

0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:42.360
<v Speaker 2>bank earnings coming in your way this week. JP Morgan

0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:44.480
<v Speaker 2>Chase City Group in Wells Fargo. They do report on

0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:47.480
<v Speaker 2>Friday the thirteenth. We're focused on the sector, the impact

0:10:47.520 --> 0:10:49.800
<v Speaker 2>of higher rates we talked about a little bit earlier

0:10:49.840 --> 0:10:52.079
<v Speaker 2>with Ira Jersey and some of our team just met

0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:54.960
<v Speaker 2>and also weighing in so important in terms of what

0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:57.680
<v Speaker 2>they can tell us about the lending environment, whether it's corporate,

0:10:57.880 --> 0:11:02.240
<v Speaker 2>retail loans, mortgages, like all this good stuff.

0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:04.079
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and keeping with that, we have a member of

0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:06.560
<v Speaker 3>the banking community joining us right now. Priscilla Sims Brown

0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:09.720
<v Speaker 3>is CEO of Amalgamated Bank. She joins us on Zoom

0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:13.160
<v Speaker 3>from Martha's Vineyard this afternoon. Good to have you with us, Priscilla,

0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:13.640
<v Speaker 3>how are you.

0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:18.360
<v Speaker 5>I'm well and I have a pair of Birkenstocks in case.

0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:21.720
<v Speaker 3>Okay, I like that. Well, you're also in Martha's vinyard

0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:23.800
<v Speaker 3>right now, so it kind of makes sense. Hey, I

0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:25.559
<v Speaker 3>want to talk about the bank in the history of

0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:26.920
<v Speaker 3>the bank in just a minute, but first I just

0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:29.199
<v Speaker 3>want to get your view on what you're seeing from

0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:32.520
<v Speaker 3>the consumer, what you're seeing across your industry right now.

0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:39.360
<v Speaker 5>Look, I mean, clearly, as the markets are showing, we

0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:45.800
<v Speaker 5>have consumers who are having a hard time getting mortgages,

0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:49.439
<v Speaker 5>trying to figure out what is going to happen to

0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:53.920
<v Speaker 5>rates overtime. I don't have a crystal ball either on that,

0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:57.640
<v Speaker 5>But I do feel that the change makers we do

0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:03.320
<v Speaker 5>business with are really the organizations that are doing good

0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:07.320
<v Speaker 5>are more important than ever right now because they're sort

0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:09.280
<v Speaker 5>of helping the underserved, and we try to help the

0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:11.360
<v Speaker 5>underserved to get access to capital.

0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:13.719
<v Speaker 2>When you say, and I want to get into kind

0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:16.840
<v Speaker 2>of more broadly of who you guys work with on

0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:19.600
<v Speaker 2>a regular basis, consumers having a hard time, what does

0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:23.520
<v Speaker 2>that mean? Are they defaulting? Are they what is it?

0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:26.560
<v Speaker 2>Are they not borrowing? What are you seeing that that

0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:27.400
<v Speaker 2>that needs you.

0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:32.960
<v Speaker 5>Say that, Well, I'm saying that because interest rates are

0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:37.480
<v Speaker 5>high and it's difficult to get a mortgage for many people. Also,

0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:41.240
<v Speaker 5>access to capital for businesses, small businesses in particular that

0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:45.640
<v Speaker 5>are expanding, is more expensive, and so it's you know,

0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:48.560
<v Speaker 5>the equations are different, the math is different than it

0:12:48.640 --> 0:12:51.760
<v Speaker 5>used to be for a number of people who are

0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:56.160
<v Speaker 5>used to the lower interest rate environment. So how that

0:12:56.240 --> 0:12:59.280
<v Speaker 5>will affect consumer sentiment over time, How that will affect

0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:03.720
<v Speaker 5>the sentiment of the small businesses we work with, That's

0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:08.480
<v Speaker 5>a question yet to be answered. But we certainly do

0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:13.400
<v Speaker 5>hear about and see that consumers and small businesses are

0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:14.200
<v Speaker 5>concerned about it.

0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:17.760
<v Speaker 3>So what are you seeing in terms of consumer spending.

0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:22.560
<v Speaker 5>Well, I don't have a real gauge on consumer spending.

0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:26.600
<v Speaker 5>I read what you do, but I do think that

0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:32.800
<v Speaker 5>at least in our universe, which again is we do

0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.920
<v Speaker 5>have some consumers, but we are largely a bank for

0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:40.160
<v Speaker 5>change makers. And what I do see there is that

0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:44.320
<v Speaker 5>there are people feeling more that it's more important than

0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:48.719
<v Speaker 5>ever as we look around at the status of migrants

0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:52.520
<v Speaker 5>as a status of the wealth gap and more and more,

0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:56.440
<v Speaker 5>this division of wealth that you see the median wealth

0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:59.560
<v Speaker 5>is in this country is something that people are concerned about,

0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:03.400
<v Speaker 5>and so our change makers are looking to try to

0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:04.400
<v Speaker 5>help close that gap.

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:06.839
<v Speaker 2>Well, and I so get it. Change makers, you guys,

0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:10.120
<v Speaker 2>were started back in the early nineteen twenties. It was

0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:13.680
<v Speaker 2>about serving immigrant women who are working in what was

0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:16.840
<v Speaker 2>called the needle trades. As somebody whose grandmother sewed a

0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 2>lot and was a seamstress, my grandfather was a tailor.

0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:23.360
<v Speaker 2>Like I totally get like that economy from which it

0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:27.400
<v Speaker 2>was created. You talk about change makers, so it's one

0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:33.880
<v Speaker 2>thousand plus unions. You're talking about political groups, if you will,

0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:35.400
<v Speaker 2>so talk to us a little bit about the people

0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:38.120
<v Speaker 2>that you do work with regularly. And what that tells

0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:41.440
<v Speaker 2>you the unions I'm really interested in. You know, you've

0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:45.440
<v Speaker 2>seen an increase, have you, in business when it comes

0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:47.640
<v Speaker 2>to the one thousand plus unions that you work with,

0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:49.720
<v Speaker 2>especially as we've seen it, what seems to feel like

0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:54.040
<v Speaker 2>a resurgence in the unionized workforce here in the United States.

0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:59.880
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, that's right. I think it's those are all great observation.

0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:02.760
<v Speaker 5>We were started one hundred years ago, as you say,

0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:06.800
<v Speaker 5>by the needle trade. These were textile workers, mostly immigrants,

0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:09.040
<v Speaker 5>who came to this country and they couldn't get banking.

0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:13.000
<v Speaker 5>They couldn't find a way to get services everything from

0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:18.680
<v Speaker 5>savings accounts to loans and for their mortgages, for their homes,

0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:23.200
<v Speaker 5>to expand their businesses. They couldn't find loans to get

0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:25.520
<v Speaker 5>their kids in college, those kinds of things, and so

0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:28.240
<v Speaker 5>they started their own bank. And here we are almost

0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:31.320
<v Speaker 5>exactly one hundred years later, and still we care a

0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:34.880
<v Speaker 5>lot about workers' rights. Forty percent of our publicly traded

0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:39.520
<v Speaker 5>stock is owned by unions. The rest is owned in

0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:44.720
<v Speaker 5>the market broadly, like most banks, and we serve people who,

0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:48.280
<v Speaker 5>as you say, you know, really what they hell have

0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:50.440
<v Speaker 5>in common is they're trying to make a positive difference

0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:54.480
<v Speaker 5>in the world and society forward. It includes everybody from

0:15:55.400 --> 0:16:01.520
<v Speaker 5>political groups, whether that be candidates or political parties, racial

0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:07.440
<v Speaker 5>justice organizations, social justice organizations, foundations, and of of course

0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:10.160
<v Speaker 5>climate organizations and yes, unions.

0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:11.920
<v Speaker 3>Well, you know, I think is so interesting about this.

0:16:11.960 --> 0:16:15.840
<v Speaker 3>You go to your bank's website and there's literally up

0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:19.360
<v Speaker 3>there with personal, small business, commercial, institutional investing. There's issues

0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:21.120
<v Speaker 3>we care about a lot of things you just mentioned.

0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:24.240
<v Speaker 3>Why do you think so many corporations shy away from

0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:26.680
<v Speaker 3>speaking out about these things, whereas you guys embrace them.

0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:28.119
<v Speaker 3>Just in the last forty five seconds.

0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:28.480
<v Speaker 1>That we have with you.

0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:32.920
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, Look, I think the reason we embrace them is

0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:36.000
<v Speaker 5>because we are proving a concept that you can do

0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:37.800
<v Speaker 5>well and do good. And we've been doing that for

0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:42.520
<v Speaker 5>one hundred years and before it was ever fad. And

0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:47.480
<v Speaker 5>we think that people have a conscience and business leaders

0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:52.400
<v Speaker 5>have a conscience and they serve the underserved in minor ways.

0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:54.200
<v Speaker 5>We do it in major ways, and we want to

0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:56.520
<v Speaker 5>see others do so as well.

0:16:57.280 --> 0:16:58.640
<v Speaker 2>All right, we've run out of time, but do you

0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:00.320
<v Speaker 2>come back soon. I love to get you, need the

0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:03.800
<v Speaker 2>conversation with you. Priscilla Sims Brown CEO of Amalgamated Bank,

0:17:04.440 --> 0:17:08.240
<v Speaker 2>joining us on the phone from Arthur's vineyard. And you know, interesting,

0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:11.480
<v Speaker 2>a very different take on a financial institution in terms

0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:13.359
<v Speaker 2>of how they were creating what they've all about, and

0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:15.720
<v Speaker 2>they kind of they continue that that mission if you

0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:16.280
<v Speaker 2>I mean.

0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:19.840
<v Speaker 3>These are these are issues that corporations run away from.

0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:22.600
<v Speaker 3>Let alone, you know, highlight them on their website.

0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:25.160
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's really cool. We'll get our back real soon.

0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:28.000
<v Speaker 2>You're listening and watching Bloomberg Business Week on this Tuesday,

0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:30.560
<v Speaker 2>Carol Master, Tim Stenevik, and this is Bloomberg Radio.

0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:37.600
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:41.639
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio,

0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:45.119
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app and YouTube. You can also listen

0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:48.320
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:57.960
<v Speaker 1>Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty a Bromarco a journal.

0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:01.040
<v Speaker 2>Now about you let me drive Oh no, no, no.

0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:05.679
<v Speaker 1>No, jug honey please gravels.

0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:07.480
<v Speaker 2>Let's I want to try it.

0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:10.639
<v Speaker 3>It's a good question.

0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:17.679
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the globe. Do a thing

0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:20.840
<v Speaker 1>well around other Don on Bloomberg Radio.

0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:22.639
<v Speaker 2>All right, how many of you are attempted to just

0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:24.680
<v Speaker 2>like I don't know, call into bed and then come

0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:26.920
<v Speaker 2>come back and wake up in about three or four months?

0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:30.640
<v Speaker 3>Are you asking me, hyber me to hibernate, hibernate.

0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:33.040
<v Speaker 2>And then come back and I think the markets of

0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:34.240
<v Speaker 2>like three or four months from now?

0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:35.680
<v Speaker 3>Fine, sign me up.

0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:38.280
<v Speaker 2>Why does that not surprise me?

0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:39.480
<v Speaker 3>You know how I roll?

0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:41.960
<v Speaker 2>All right, Well, let's see how our next guest rolls.

0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:43.800
<v Speaker 2>Doug Sioak is back with a CEO and partner at

0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:47.400
<v Speaker 2>Kavar Capital on Zoom and Leewood, Kansas. Doug, so good

0:18:47.440 --> 0:18:49.120
<v Speaker 2>to have you back with us. There's a lot going

0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:51.840
<v Speaker 2>on geopolitically, as you know, and you know we've been covering,

0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:56.639
<v Speaker 2>but a lot coming out investors, just uh generally speaking.

0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:58.439
<v Speaker 2>Having said that, what do you think if we all

0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:01.000
<v Speaker 2>went to bed and then came back in three or

0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:03.720
<v Speaker 2>four months, did the hibernation thing? Well, actually that would

0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:06.560
<v Speaker 2>be like more like five or six months. What kind

0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:08.640
<v Speaker 2>of environment might we have in four months or six

0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:09.359
<v Speaker 2>months from now?

0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:12.680
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, that's a great question, and thank you for having

0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:14.480
<v Speaker 6>me back on. You know, I think we would have

0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:17.200
<v Speaker 6>an environment that we've missed a lot of fantastic opportunities.

0:19:17.600 --> 0:19:19.760
<v Speaker 6>You know, I think, like you kind of mentioned, there's

0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:22.879
<v Speaker 6>been a lot of negativity. Obviously, the emotional weight of

0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:25.320
<v Speaker 6>what transpired in Israel over the weekend is heavily on

0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:28.760
<v Speaker 6>everyone's hearts and minds. And you know, the markets historically

0:19:28.880 --> 0:19:33.160
<v Speaker 6>don't really know how to calibrate prospects of geopolitical escalation

0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:37.320
<v Speaker 6>right there, knee jerk reactions into haven's and out of risk.

0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:40.520
<v Speaker 6>But then there's a realization that conflict galvanizes government interventions

0:19:40.560 --> 0:19:42.560
<v Speaker 6>and that could be an increase in capital and liquidity.

0:19:42.600 --> 0:19:46.440
<v Speaker 6>And so it's kind of an emotional tension between I

0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:48.480
<v Speaker 6>should say, it's sort of a tension point between emotion

0:19:48.600 --> 0:19:51.280
<v Speaker 6>and economic and that kind of defines what the market's

0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:54.040
<v Speaker 6>been but for various reasons throughout the year, No question.

0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:57.360
<v Speaker 2>I like that combination between emotion and economic. That makes

0:19:57.400 --> 0:19:57.880
<v Speaker 2>a lot of sense.

0:19:57.960 --> 0:20:00.119
<v Speaker 3>Well, so where are we right now, because it it

0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:04.080
<v Speaker 3>seems like it's less emotional at least today in terms

0:20:04.119 --> 0:20:06.639
<v Speaker 3>of what's what's driving the market, because it seems like

0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:08.720
<v Speaker 3>it's a sort of a well maybe it's maybe it

0:20:08.760 --> 0:20:11.119
<v Speaker 3>is emotional, but maybe it's just dubvish.

0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:13.199
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I think, Tim, you could say, well, today's the

0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:17.480
<v Speaker 6>Rafio Bastik or Philip Jefferson rally, you get a little

0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:20.439
<v Speaker 6>attribution to Mary Daily because her acknowledgment of race efficiency

0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:22.359
<v Speaker 6>was a bit more of a reversal than the end.

0:20:22.440 --> 0:20:25.560
<v Speaker 2>Because our Lisa bramo Its did the most conversation, the

0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:28.160
<v Speaker 2>most amazing conversation with her at the New York Economic Club.

0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:29.560
<v Speaker 2>I have to just put a shout out for Lisa

0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:33.679
<v Speaker 2>because it was pretty amazing. But anyway, go ahead, well great,

0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:35.800
<v Speaker 2>and then go on top of that, I mean, lastly,

0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:37.720
<v Speaker 2>a well elevated Chinese stimulus.

0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:40.080
<v Speaker 6>And then I saw something interesting this morning from beastpoke

0:20:40.160 --> 0:20:42.479
<v Speaker 6>and talking about the dollar has been in a bit

0:20:42.480 --> 0:20:44.239
<v Speaker 6>of a decline over the last couple of weeks, and

0:20:44.600 --> 0:20:46.480
<v Speaker 6>even in spite of the haven demand that eminated over

0:20:46.520 --> 0:20:49.399
<v Speaker 6>the weekend. So today's a pretty good day, particularly you

0:20:49.440 --> 0:20:51.840
<v Speaker 6>consider that the equit A S and P is outperforming

0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:54.119
<v Speaker 6>the market cap waited by about thirty basis points for

0:20:54.119 --> 0:20:56.359
<v Speaker 6>those that are concerned about an absence of breath, and

0:20:56.560 --> 0:20:59.959
<v Speaker 6>no doubt this forty level the SMP has held pretty solidly.

0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:00.800
<v Speaker 6>It's last week.

0:21:00.920 --> 0:21:02.720
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, just Bett was talking about a week or dollar

0:21:02.840 --> 0:21:03.920
<v Speaker 2>two impacking the trade.

0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:06.480
<v Speaker 3>So Doug, do you think. I mean, it's hard to

0:21:07.400 --> 0:21:09.080
<v Speaker 3>I don't even look back on the declines we saw

0:21:09.160 --> 0:21:11.560
<v Speaker 3>last week and then see the surge we saw this week.

0:21:11.760 --> 0:21:14.680
<v Speaker 3>I'm wondering if we're going to test those lows again,

0:21:14.760 --> 0:21:16.600
<v Speaker 3>not just the lows from last week, but last October

0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:17.159
<v Speaker 3>this cycle.

0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:19.840
<v Speaker 6>It's a great question.

0:21:19.880 --> 0:21:20.040
<v Speaker 4>You know.

0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:23.960
<v Speaker 6>It's interesting, tim like essimists have been spewing this pretty

0:21:23.960 --> 0:21:27.920
<v Speaker 6>well worn narrative, right, like, expect these brisistently high interest

0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:31.000
<v Speaker 6>rates to number one, deccellerrate the economy, number two, undermind

0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:34.200
<v Speaker 6>consumer competence, number three, rerate mark multiples and then lastly

0:21:34.280 --> 0:21:37.520
<v Speaker 6>shift capital and or conservative corners, and all of that

0:21:37.600 --> 0:21:39.960
<v Speaker 6>makes sense, right. And I also have said for a while,

0:21:39.960 --> 0:21:42.359
<v Speaker 6>I don't know that the market is getting credit for

0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:45.919
<v Speaker 6>time served last year. Right, Yes, we had a nice bounce,

0:21:45.960 --> 0:21:49.600
<v Speaker 6>We're we're still not taken out the prior period highs, right,

0:21:49.680 --> 0:21:50.959
<v Speaker 6>even though we've had the bounce in the one year

0:21:51.000 --> 0:21:52.840
<v Speaker 6>university in a couple of days ago of those lows,

0:21:53.480 --> 0:21:55.800
<v Speaker 6>but historically right, when you just look at where we

0:21:55.840 --> 0:21:59.600
<v Speaker 6>are at current real yields, it's actually a coin toss

0:21:59.640 --> 0:22:03.520
<v Speaker 6>between stock and bond performance. Looking out twelve months, both

0:22:03.560 --> 0:22:06.520
<v Speaker 6>are positive. Again. This is historically not predictive, just perspective.

0:22:06.800 --> 0:22:08.800
<v Speaker 6>But inflation has come down a bunch off the peak.

0:22:08.800 --> 0:22:09.960
<v Speaker 6>And this is what we know, and I read this

0:22:10.000 --> 0:22:13.800
<v Speaker 6>from Golden Sacks last week. Since nineteen forty five, the

0:22:13.960 --> 0:22:15.879
<v Speaker 6>S and P is there isn't twenty one percent on average,

0:22:15.920 --> 0:22:18.360
<v Speaker 6>and then two years after LUISA data showing a peak

0:22:18.400 --> 0:22:21.160
<v Speaker 6>and CPI, if you take out episodes with a recession,

0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:23.359
<v Speaker 6>that means you're looking at more like a twenty eight

0:22:23.359 --> 0:22:25.560
<v Speaker 6>percent game over that two year period. So I do

0:22:25.600 --> 0:22:28.840
<v Speaker 6>think because the wall of warry is so steep, a

0:22:28.840 --> 0:22:31.359
<v Speaker 6>lot of that is reflected in valuations, and there's some

0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:34.080
<v Speaker 6>pretty attracted places to put money right now, and there's

0:22:34.119 --> 0:22:36.240
<v Speaker 6>some pretty important inflection points that are building.

0:22:36.680 --> 0:22:40.200
<v Speaker 2>So when you say market getting credit for time served,

0:22:40.240 --> 0:22:43.040
<v Speaker 2>you're talking equity market specifically.

0:22:43.119 --> 0:22:45.480
<v Speaker 6>And fixed income, right, Carolcause you figure last year is

0:22:45.520 --> 0:22:47.520
<v Speaker 6>what the seventh worst year in the history of stocks,

0:22:47.800 --> 0:22:50.119
<v Speaker 6>the first worst year of the history of bonds. It

0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:51.920
<v Speaker 6>was a single worst year for bonds, the single worse

0:22:51.920 --> 0:22:53.959
<v Speaker 6>three year period of monds, seven, five and ten year

0:22:54.000 --> 0:22:56.080
<v Speaker 6>period in bonds. Don't why I said those out of

0:22:56.200 --> 0:22:58.560
<v Speaker 6>the chronologic order, but so there was a lot of

0:22:58.640 --> 0:23:01.760
<v Speaker 6>time served, a lot of unwine, a lot of slack

0:23:01.840 --> 0:23:06.359
<v Speaker 6>and access left both both markets, which needed to happen.

0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:06.560
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:23:06.600 --> 0:23:09.119
<v Speaker 6>There was just so much liquidity that has now come

0:23:09.160 --> 0:23:10.960
<v Speaker 6>out of the market, and it's still coming out of

0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:12.200
<v Speaker 6>the market, and it's one of the reasons why we're

0:23:12.200 --> 0:23:14.680
<v Speaker 6>seeing the back end of the curve rising as it hass.

0:23:14.600 --> 0:23:17.639
<v Speaker 2>So in other words, both stocks and bonds have gotten

0:23:17.640 --> 0:23:21.360
<v Speaker 2>the heck beaten out of them, and so let's remember

0:23:21.440 --> 0:23:23.639
<v Speaker 2>that in terms of when we look at the trade today.

0:23:24.520 --> 0:23:27.480
<v Speaker 6>Absolutely, that's a much better and more concise way to

0:23:27.480 --> 0:23:27.720
<v Speaker 6>say that.

0:23:27.880 --> 0:23:29.760
<v Speaker 2>I could have used another four letter word, but you know,

0:23:29.960 --> 0:23:32.800
<v Speaker 2>we are Bloomberg and I like to keep it clean anyway,

0:23:32.880 --> 0:23:35.040
<v Speaker 2>But it's no, that's a really good point. So, having

0:23:35.200 --> 0:23:39.240
<v Speaker 2>said that, it's an interesting week, Doug with bank earnings,

0:23:39.280 --> 0:23:42.399
<v Speaker 2>and we're looking for a lot of guidance and understanding

0:23:42.440 --> 0:23:43.840
<v Speaker 2>of kind of where we go from here from the

0:23:43.840 --> 0:23:45.479
<v Speaker 2>big bank CEO. So who can tell us a lot

0:23:45.600 --> 0:23:48.520
<v Speaker 2>right about the lending environment, especially when you've got the

0:23:48.520 --> 0:23:51.320
<v Speaker 2>FED concerned about tightening financial conditions. That's why I think

0:23:51.640 --> 0:23:53.320
<v Speaker 2>what we get from the banks is even more important.

0:23:53.320 --> 0:23:55.320
<v Speaker 2>But you've also got some FED minutes and those inflation

0:23:55.400 --> 0:24:01.040
<v Speaker 2>prints is this potentially a very important for you and

0:24:01.119 --> 0:24:04.119
<v Speaker 2>maybe how you think about the markets and where it

0:24:04.119 --> 0:24:06.359
<v Speaker 2>goes from here or what you know.

0:24:06.560 --> 0:24:09.280
<v Speaker 6>I think every piece is incremental, right, what we've had

0:24:09.320 --> 0:24:13.320
<v Speaker 6>this obsession with and likely because it's been big center

0:24:13.640 --> 0:24:16.000
<v Speaker 6>point over the media, but then also feeling questions from

0:24:16.000 --> 0:24:19.400
<v Speaker 6>our clients is is there a chance for a soft landing?

0:24:19.480 --> 0:24:21.000
<v Speaker 6>And to your point here, when we're going to get

0:24:21.000 --> 0:24:26.640
<v Speaker 6>some aspects of that case that can be affirmative or

0:24:27.240 --> 0:24:30.359
<v Speaker 6>counter and we think there's a chance for a soft landing.

0:24:30.359 --> 0:24:32.600
<v Speaker 6>And if you really think about we have stable and

0:24:32.680 --> 0:24:35.280
<v Speaker 6>accelerating economic growth, do you realize that the GDP and

0:24:35.320 --> 0:24:37.879
<v Speaker 6>out the Atlanta Federate is protecting a third quarter GDP

0:24:38.000 --> 0:24:41.280
<v Speaker 6>of four point nine percent? Do you believe it so

0:24:42.280 --> 0:24:44.400
<v Speaker 6>a GDP? Say it again?

0:24:45.080 --> 0:24:46.040
<v Speaker 3>I was going to say, I mean, they have a

0:24:46.080 --> 0:24:47.040
<v Speaker 3>pretty good track record.

0:24:48.040 --> 0:24:50.080
<v Speaker 6>They do have a pretty good track record, right, And

0:24:50.119 --> 0:24:53.280
<v Speaker 6>you have stable to falling CPI and PCE. And we

0:24:53.320 --> 0:24:56.760
<v Speaker 6>saw on Friday last Friday this ridiculously strong headline at

0:24:56.760 --> 0:25:00.760
<v Speaker 6>a P number but also with significant dry up and

0:25:01.119 --> 0:25:04.320
<v Speaker 6>this name it in its drop of our average all yearnings.

0:25:04.320 --> 0:25:07.080
<v Speaker 6>So you've got an economy that's resilient. A consumer that's

0:25:07.080 --> 0:25:11.640
<v Speaker 6>still spending even though they've lost some leverage and celerityed negotiations,

0:25:11.760 --> 0:25:13.840
<v Speaker 6>which we saw on the quits rate as well, is

0:25:13.960 --> 0:25:16.520
<v Speaker 6>actually okay, is some of the stuff that they're buying

0:25:16.760 --> 0:25:18.120
<v Speaker 6>is dropping in price.

0:25:18.280 --> 0:25:22.080
<v Speaker 3>Ryes I clumbate, So Stabler accelerating growth, a consumer who's

0:25:22.080 --> 0:25:24.600
<v Speaker 3>still spending. What else is on the team self planning?

0:25:24.680 --> 0:25:24.880
<v Speaker 1>Yeah?

0:25:24.920 --> 0:25:26.280
<v Speaker 3>What else is on team self landing?

0:25:26.400 --> 0:25:29.440
<v Speaker 6>Well, it got to consider the consumer so importantly because

0:25:29.440 --> 0:25:32.000
<v Speaker 6>it's sixty eight percent of GDP is wrapped up in

0:25:32.040 --> 0:25:34.920
<v Speaker 6>consumers contribution. So you still have a strong employment pick

0:25:34.960 --> 0:25:37.320
<v Speaker 6>that I mentioned, you have low leverage, it's percentage of

0:25:37.320 --> 0:25:40.719
<v Speaker 6>household net worth. And then this is really fascinating art

0:25:40.720 --> 0:25:43.280
<v Speaker 6>on Wall Street Journal over the weekend talked about the

0:25:43.320 --> 0:25:46.119
<v Speaker 6>shifting and the burden of purchasing from the younger of

0:25:46.160 --> 0:25:49.560
<v Speaker 6>the older cohort in this country. And I didn't realize

0:25:49.560 --> 0:25:52.760
<v Speaker 6>that people aged sixty five and up spend twenty two

0:25:52.800 --> 0:25:55.880
<v Speaker 6>percent of all the dollars in this country annually. That's

0:25:55.960 --> 0:25:59.879
<v Speaker 6>up from fifteen percent in twenty ten. And American the

0:26:00.320 --> 0:26:03.679
<v Speaker 6>seventy in higher control twenty six percent of the household wealth.

0:26:04.200 --> 0:26:07.040
<v Speaker 6>So you have this cohort of people that is also

0:26:08.320 --> 0:26:10.919
<v Speaker 6>going through this emotional catharsis of you know what, we

0:26:10.960 --> 0:26:13.800
<v Speaker 6>went through the pandemic. You know what life can be short.

0:26:13.840 --> 0:26:16.400
<v Speaker 6>You know what I'm gonna spend right, it seems five

0:26:16.400 --> 0:26:19.280
<v Speaker 6>to seven percent elevation and I've spending it very.

0:26:18.920 --> 0:26:20.959
<v Speaker 2>I got family members who are doing that and traveling

0:26:21.000 --> 0:26:23.320
<v Speaker 2>and doing all that kind of things. Doug Sioka, thank

0:26:23.320 --> 0:26:26.840
<v Speaker 2>you so much of Kavar Capital. This is Bloomberg.

0:26:27.280 --> 0:26:31.919
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:26:32.080 --> 0:26:35.760
<v Speaker 1>and anywhere else you hit your podcast. Listen live weekday

0:26:35.800 --> 0:26:39.439
<v Speaker 1>afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

0:26:39.480 --> 0:26:42.800
<v Speaker 1>the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App.

0:26:42.840 --> 0:26:45.800
<v Speaker 1>You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

0:26:46.040 --> 0:26:48.240
<v Speaker 1>and always on the Bloomberg Jermany alone