WEBVTT - Repairable Deterrence.  Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>The US response has increased intensity eight times as many

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<v Speaker 1>targets were hit compared to the last time the US

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<v Speaker 1>responded to Iran firing on ships in the Strait. The

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<v Speaker 1>targets include some sixty Revolutionary Guards small boats. Sencom also

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<v Speaker 1>says the strikes included defense systems, command and control networks,

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<v Speaker 1>coastal radar sites, and anti ship capabilities. And we have

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<v Speaker 1>video of the US strikes hitting in Bandarabas. Iran responded

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<v Speaker 1>by firing into their neighbors Kuwait and Bahrain. The official

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<v Speaker 1>Iranian news agency claims to have hit some eighty five

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<v Speaker 1>targets in those countries. Details on the number of targets

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<v Speaker 1>are not confirmed by other sources, but sirens sounded in

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<v Speaker 1>Kuwait and Bahrain.

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<v Speaker 2>Now this isn't an I rerun. We aren't still on

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<v Speaker 2>vacation and you're listening to old shows. We are back

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<v Speaker 2>and this is new. We are back at war with Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>It would seem Iran struck several ships in the Strait,

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<v Speaker 2>violating the MoU According to Trump, which he says is

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<v Speaker 2>now dead, we hit ran pretty hard. I guess we'll

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<v Speaker 2>find out how hard when we ask lines here in

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<v Speaker 2>a second. And then Iran struck the countries around them,

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<v Speaker 2>as they like to do. Where it goes from now,

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<v Speaker 2>I do not know. Welcome Mike Lyons to the Armstrong

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<v Speaker 2>Engetti show again. Mike served with various military organizations in

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<v Speaker 2>both the United States and Europe throughout his career. Got

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<v Speaker 2>his degree from the United States to Military Academy at

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<v Speaker 2>West Point. Hey, Mike, what did you think of that?

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<v Speaker 2>How big a deal was this? How hard to strike?

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<v Speaker 2>Was this just a like a little love tap, I'll

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<v Speaker 2>let you know we're still paying attention or did we

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<v Speaker 2>hit them hard?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah? Thanks for having me back.

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<v Speaker 4>I've always thought that this has been the end of

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<v Speaker 4>escalation management from the very beginning.

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<v Speaker 3>So I published an article and we'll see.

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<v Speaker 4>Journal about that, and sent Com is reporting eighty targets

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<v Speaker 4>hit with precision munitions. So this is not a proportional

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<v Speaker 4>response back. This is not a tit for.

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<v Speaker 3>Tat what we had been doing good in the past,

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<v Speaker 3>and so I think that that's a good sign.

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<v Speaker 4>I do believe. Now it just gets back to you know,

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<v Speaker 4>what are those targets. It looks like Iranian air defense systems,

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<v Speaker 4>command and control networks, the coastal rate our sites.

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<v Speaker 3>Those are so key.

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<v Speaker 4>It looks like some of their anti ship missile capabilities

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<v Speaker 4>now are more out in the open and roun Revolutionary

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<v Speaker 4>Guard Corps, I mean, the small boats. You know, it

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<v Speaker 4>just shows you the target rich environment. It is from

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<v Speaker 4>a military perspective. When we stop, probably stops too soon,

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<v Speaker 4>and it looks like our response back is disproportional.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Trump just said a few minutes ago, we're probably

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<v Speaker 2>going to hit them hard again tonight. So you're saying

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<v Speaker 2>there's plenty of stuff to.

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<v Speaker 4>Hit, Yeah, no question, And I think you know we were.

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<v Speaker 4>You've got to figure out a way still to you know,

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<v Speaker 4>make sure that it's it's not completely destroyed when the

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<v Speaker 4>country's you know, when we finally move this thing forward.

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<v Speaker 4>And so I'm for this, you know, this preparable deterrence

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<v Speaker 4>going after some of their revenue capabilities, but not necessarily

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<v Speaker 4>destroying you know, entire oil fields and entire things. But

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<v Speaker 4>but there are quasi military targets that would make them

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<v Speaker 4>very easy to repair when the time comes, but set

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<v Speaker 4>them back when it comes to trying to raise revenue

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<v Speaker 4>and things like that. So there's there's still many military

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<v Speaker 4>targets that hit many many to go after. And we're

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<v Speaker 4>at the cleanup phase of that now, I think.

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<v Speaker 3>So.

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<v Speaker 2>There was some reporting over the weekend that Trump had

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<v Speaker 2>decided a while back we were going to use our

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<v Speaker 2>military and force that straight back open, and Saudi Arabia

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<v Speaker 2>talked him out of it. So I guess that still

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<v Speaker 2>might be on the table if Iran's not willing to,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, stop firing on ships.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that would really ramp up with our off tempo,

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<v Speaker 4>the pace that our military is working. We'd have to

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<v Speaker 4>bring maybe some more destroyers and cruisers into the into

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<v Speaker 4>the region, even though we have three carriers strike groups

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<v Speaker 4>right now that they're more focused on the aircraft and

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<v Speaker 4>the carrier themselves. But that's you know, a mission that

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<v Speaker 4>we could do. It could take months, but it means

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<v Speaker 4>really softening up any of the coastal batteries.

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<v Speaker 3>That seem to exist that are there.

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<v Speaker 4>The fact that they can get off any shots whatsoever,

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<v Speaker 4>either using drones or any kind of you know, precision

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<v Speaker 4>munitions to shows they still have this capability.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Trump's over there. All the NATO leaders the Big

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<v Speaker 2>NATO meeting and the NATO Secretary General said this morning

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<v Speaker 2>that what the United States did was perfectly appropriate, had

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<v Speaker 2>to be done I mean, and that's not the way

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<v Speaker 2>NATO's really been talking about this whole Iran operation the

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<v Speaker 2>whole time. So is there any chance we get any

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<v Speaker 2>help from any of our NATO allies on this at

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<v Speaker 2>this point?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 4>You know, Mark Rute's influence on Trump, to me is

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<v Speaker 4>a masterclass.

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<v Speaker 3>And how to manage him, right.

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<v Speaker 4>All these other NATO leaders are just can't manage Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 4>McCrone thinks he's smarter than him. You know, the Germans tried,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, to be more technical. Let's say Keir Starmer.

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<v Speaker 4>That's you know, he failed miserably. But I think I

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<v Speaker 4>think Route cracks the code. He validates him publicly as

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<v Speaker 4>soon as Trump got on with that, the MoU is over.

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<v Speaker 3>Rute couldn't say it any quicker.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm with you in the same breath, right, So very

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<v Speaker 4>clearly he's because a Trump whisper when it comes to that. Now,

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<v Speaker 4>the downside is that he's really only managing him. He's not,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, maybe not advising him, but he at least

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<v Speaker 4>speaks his language. He's not trying to be Macron, he's

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<v Speaker 4>not trying to be some other leader that that's trying

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<v Speaker 4>to be Trump's peer. He let's kind of Trump be Trump,

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<v Speaker 4>and I think from what we are right now.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's still a good thing. I think it's

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<v Speaker 3>a good thing for NATO. I think it's going to

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<v Speaker 3>keep you, you know, well in sant of NATO.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's talking as we're talking to you, so he's saying

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<v Speaker 2>more things like we may put the blockade on the

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<v Speaker 2>straight of Horne moves back in place, so we might

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<v Speaker 2>be back right back to where we were two and

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<v Speaker 2>a half weeks ago by the end of tonight.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, the whip song is challenging to the military, going

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<v Speaker 4>back and forth again. The blockade just means repositioning some.

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<v Speaker 3>Of those ships.

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<v Speaker 4>I think most of the military community that I had

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<v Speaker 4>spoken to didn't think we had finished the job, so

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<v Speaker 4>to speak. We gave the president enough leverage to start

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<v Speaker 4>to talk. I think he needed that for making sure

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<v Speaker 4>that oil prices didn't go crazy, and he was, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>keeping one eye.

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<v Speaker 3>On the politics of this.

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<v Speaker 4>But I think those in the military we felt that

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<v Speaker 4>it really wasn't finished. That this campaign should have gone

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<v Speaker 4>on longer than thirty seven days is really what it

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<v Speaker 4>went on for, should have went on at least.

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<v Speaker 3>Forty five, even sixty.

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<v Speaker 4>It should have had a better logical conclusion with a

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<v Speaker 4>clear sign of US victory.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the Wall Street journals reporting today is that they

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<v Speaker 2>were making no progress whatsoever, like zero on the whole

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<v Speaker 2>details around nuclear weapons, which is what the whole war

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<v Speaker 2>was about. So which doesn't surprise me in the least.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's the worst case scenario. Worst case scenario obviously

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<v Speaker 2>is that Oram gets a nuclear weapon, but we prosecute

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<v Speaker 2>this war, we continue to go forward and put pressure

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<v Speaker 2>on us. What should we watch out for that could

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<v Speaker 2>go wrong?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, you know, they had some kind of internal revolution

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<v Speaker 4>and that you have this humanitarian crisis that exists inside

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<v Speaker 4>the country because it implosed United States gets blamed for

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<v Speaker 4>that or something. I think I don't think we have

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<v Speaker 4>to worry about. You know, there's potentially some of our

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<v Speaker 4>military targets, but there's not a situation that I could

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<v Speaker 4>see that we're in trouble now unless the.

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<v Speaker 3>Chinese decided to enter the picture.

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<v Speaker 4>Off they decide, which I think should have been part

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<v Speaker 4>of the MoU. Anyway, I think that we should have

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<v Speaker 4>made sure that no other countries were going to come

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<v Speaker 4>in and assist the Roan, that that MoU is all

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<v Speaker 4>front loaded for the Iranians, it was you know, all

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<v Speaker 4>the all the United States activities were on the back

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<v Speaker 4>side of it. We don't want the Chinese in there,

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<v Speaker 4>we don't want any other countries in there, and we

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<v Speaker 4>often need stronger Gulf states to make sure that they're

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<v Speaker 4>focused on making sure we take this to the end.

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<v Speaker 3>But but what goes wrong?

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<v Speaker 4>I think the real the real challenge would be more

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<v Speaker 4>inside of Iran humanitarian crisis. Ninety million people's will have

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<v Speaker 4>to feed and keep water, and if the Ranian government collapses,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, how do they do that?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's a good point.

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<v Speaker 2>So also part of the Wall Street Journal reporting day

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<v Speaker 2>was that Iran has gotten back a fair amount of

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<v Speaker 2>their capability, was that with the help of China and

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<v Speaker 2>Russia that they rebuilt all that stuff.

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<v Speaker 4>I think they just basically took that out of the

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<v Speaker 4>mountains and they had a lot to begin with. And

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<v Speaker 4>again from a scale perspective, they still can't deploy hundreds.

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<v Speaker 3>At a time.

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<v Speaker 4>But when you have a lot, when you sneak, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>take a thousand rockets, let's say, or a thousand missiles

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<v Speaker 4>and hide them in the mountains and hide them in places.

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<v Speaker 4>If you look at the geography of Iran easy to do,

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<v Speaker 4>and all that they're doing now is just deploying those

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<v Speaker 4>that are out there. So that's where there's more targets

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<v Speaker 4>for us to kind of go after. I think that's

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<v Speaker 4>really what happened. There's no industrial capability to fix anything

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<v Speaker 4>that's not really on the table. It's the fact that

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<v Speaker 4>just shows you the level of ballistic missile capability. They

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<v Speaker 4>always had tens of thousands of missiles that they had ready,

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<v Speaker 4>that had built them be ready for the fight.

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<v Speaker 2>Are any of those countries surrounding around that keep getting

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<v Speaker 2>hit by the Iranians going to finally like really join

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<v Speaker 2>us in this battle.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, that's another great question.

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<v Speaker 4>And you know, it just shows you how Middle Eastern

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<v Speaker 4>politics are, you know more in some ways based on religion.

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<v Speaker 4>A lot of it has to with that, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>the Shia Sunni divide that exists in that part of

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<v Speaker 4>the world, and so that they you know, you can't

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<v Speaker 4>change the geography, right, I mean, Tatar and the UAE

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<v Speaker 4>are doing what they can to avoid the straits, right,

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<v Speaker 4>they're building tunnels and things like that, but they should

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<v Speaker 4>have been building them before the Saudi's already did that.

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<v Speaker 4>They've got a pipeline going to the Red Sea. But

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<v Speaker 4>the politics are just not what we're used to, and

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<v Speaker 4>that they have to they recognize that there are what

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<v Speaker 4>they are.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I have a feeling there's a chance we might

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<v Speaker 2>be talking to you again later this week after a

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<v Speaker 2>couple of more rounds of strikes in Iran. Mike Lyons

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<v Speaker 2>military analysts. You can follow him on Twitter at m

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<v Speaker 2>A j is in Major at Major m Aj. Mike Lyons,

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<v Speaker 2>I go there whenever something happens to see what you

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<v Speaker 2>thought about it.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks Mike, Thanks for having.

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<v Speaker 2>The war's back on. I think clearly, well let's play

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<v Speaker 2>this just because we got a moment.

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<v Speaker 3>To me, I think it's over.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't want to deal with them. You know what

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<v Speaker 5>scum is. There's gum, there's sick people. They're lit by

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<v Speaker 5>sick people. There's something wrong with them. They're cuckoo. As

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<v Speaker 5>far as I'm concerned, it's over.

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<v Speaker 2>That he was asking about the MoU, the memorandum of

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<v Speaker 2>Understanding that you know, brought about the sixty day cease

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<v Speaker 2>fire and they get their money back before we start

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<v Speaker 2>the nuclear talks, which never happened. Shock shock shock, Trump

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<v Speaker 2>saying it's over. They're cuckoo, it's over. I hope he

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<v Speaker 2>means it, because he says this sort of stuff about

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<v Speaker 2>Putin or the Mullahs or the IRGC, and then you know,

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<v Speaker 2>by the end of the day he'll say, noh, he

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<v Speaker 2>talked to do a guy and he sounds like he's

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<v Speaker 2>a it's really exciting.

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<v Speaker 3>JD.

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<v Speaker 2>Vans will come out and say, you know, it's really cool,

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<v Speaker 2>is they They they now understand that they've been doing

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<v Speaker 2>the wrong thing all these years, which was just the

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<v Speaker 2>lamest thing that has ever come out of Jade Vancel's mouth.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh Armstrong, Hetty