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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by Bed threety

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Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our Week twelve Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Milman,

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Speaker 1: chiefs Content Officer of the Action Network. Oh boy, oh boy.

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Speaker 1: We are coming off of a one and four week

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Speaker 1: in our contest, the worst week we've had all season. Also,

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Speaker 1: by the way, the hardest week in the contest all

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Speaker 1: season across the board. We reviewed our record extensively in

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Speaker 1: our Sunday Night recap episode, but since we did have

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Speaker 1: a contest playing the Broncos on Sunday Night Football for posterity,

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Speaker 1: we lost that. We also won the Eagles, which we

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Speaker 1: were excited about last night. Too bad we didn't put

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Speaker 1: in the contest. The bad news, as I said, it

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Speaker 1: was our worst week of the year. The good news

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Speaker 1: news after Thanksgiving we can drop our two worst weeks

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Speaker 1: of the season so far. That will definitely be one

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Speaker 1: of them. A lot of the lines we liked have

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Speaker 1: already moved since Sunday, which is why you need to

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Speaker 1: listen to the Sunday Show if you want to get

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Speaker 1: the best of the number. Today is a very special episode. Reminder,

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Speaker 1: we will not have a Thursday show because in theory,

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Speaker 1: you should all be spending time with your families on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: even though we know you will be shouting at your family, well,

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Speaker 1: you were sweating games. So for today's show, we will

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Speaker 1: deliver the whole Enchilada Foxhall, Simon says exac decision, Big Balls,

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Speaker 1: Bet of the Week, plus a Thanksgiving Day version, very

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Speaker 1: special holiday edition of Shark Calls. Also reminder me and

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Speaker 1: Simon special live episode of The Favorites Podcast December third,

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Speaker 1: Shepherd and the Knucklehead in Hoboken, New Jersey. Free to

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Speaker 1: get in, free drinks, free chance to bet with me

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Speaker 1: and Simon. You must RSVP. It's the Sunday night episode

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Speaker 1: will go on live. You must RSVP check out the

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Speaker 1: link in the description page here, both on the show's

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Speaker 1: YouTube page and in the podcast episode page or eventwright

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Speaker 1: dot com. Check it there. Search the Favorites Podcast for

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Speaker 1: more on info and to our SVP. We will discuss

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Speaker 1: the games we like right now for the contest, will

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Speaker 1: lock those in as usual Sunday morning. Two big reminders

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Speaker 1: regarding the contest. Number one, the Thanksgiving and Black Friday

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Speaker 1: games not in the contest. Once again, the entire leaderboard

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Speaker 1: getting shake up after this week when everyone's two lowest

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Speaker 1: scores get dropped and the leaderboard recalibrates. Now, let's bring

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Speaker 1: in my co host, May BFF, my companion, Michael Padre

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Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter. Simon the season starts anew.

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Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving to you.

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Speaker 3: And happy Thanksgiving to you. This is you know, there's

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Speaker 3: some things in life that just fit. And I think

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Speaker 3: when you talk about football, thanksgiving, traditional rivalries and being there,

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Speaker 3: that's a good fit.

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Speaker 2: He's just very optimistic. Yeah, tough week last week, excited

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Speaker 2: about this week that hopefully bounce back. Things obviously didn't

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Speaker 2: bounce our way last week, and you know we're already

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Speaker 2: off to a good start this week. We probably should

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Speaker 2: have lost that Eagles bet, but lucky for us, the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs didn't really think they needed wide receivers. And who

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Speaker 2: would have thought, Chad, you probably need one good, reliable

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Speaker 2: ride receiver another team could have got Hopkins. Doesn't make

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Speaker 2: sense why they didn't go get Hopkins, just a guy

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Speaker 2: you can rely on third downs. Clearly Mahomes is missing it.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it doesn't matter how great you are, right like,

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Speaker 2: you need guys who can catch the ball. We saw

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Speaker 2: it last year with Aaron Rodgers in that Green Bay offense.

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Speaker 2: They didn't have any pass catchers. He suffered. This year,

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Speaker 2: we're really seeing to Mahomes. It's crazy, like the Eagles

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Speaker 2: should have lost that game. But what is it? Three

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Speaker 2: or four weeks now, I think people have posted that

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Speaker 2: Chiefs have only scored a touchdown or less in the

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Speaker 2: second half. Yep, that's crazy to think with Mahomes run offense.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, as an Eagles fan, feeling pretty good, Chad. Great,

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Speaker 2: crazy to have be a fan of a team that's

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Speaker 2: again the number one seed outright in the NFL right now.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, as a better felt good. Didn't feel good

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Speaker 2: at half? I probably you're probably the same as me.

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Speaker 2: It's just like, wow, we're down ten at half. But yeah, nice.

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Speaker 2: Nice to end the week with another prime time under

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Speaker 2: as well, Chad. I think we're up to what is it,

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Speaker 2: evan twenty eight, twenty eight, twenty or maybe it's twenty seven. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: twenty seven primetime unders have hit this year, so it's crazy.

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Speaker 2: Can't believe it. Last week we lost on Thursday, and

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Speaker 2: then we got it Sunday night and Monday night, so

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Speaker 2: it went to and one last week Primetime under is

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Speaker 2: gon gonna keep riding the trend? Chad, I mean until

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Speaker 2: until they lose three in a row to overs. I'm

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Speaker 2: just gonna keep riding this trend.

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Speaker 1: Sim and I am nothing if not irrationally and unrealistically

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Speaker 1: optimistic about the opportunities that lie ahead. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five.

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Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen or older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. As a reminder, catch every

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Speaker 1: episode of the favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying

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Speaker 1: it on YouTube already, don't forget to give us a like.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. Here's the update

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Speaker 1: for week eleven Contest Office Week Yet in the contest,

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Speaker 1: like I said, only thirty eight entries finished five and zero.

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Speaker 1: Congrats to Razor the Guru. Enjoy the cash, my friend,

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Speaker 1: you came in first. This week's Producer's Couple ward goes

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Speaker 1: to Ken Flemia for finishing dead fucking alaskoing on and

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Speaker 1: five and mist in the tiebreaker at three hundred and

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Speaker 1: eighteen yards. Ken, email producer Matt Mitchell at podcasts at

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Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com to claim your non cash prize, thanks

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Speaker 1: for playing. Week twelve is now live the tiebreaker total

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Speaker 1: passing yards on Monday Night Football. All right, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: start with Thanksgiving Day, normally Thursday, as we let our

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Speaker 1: director of research, Evan Abrams end the show, but he

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Speaker 1: has so many jaw dropping trends regarding Thanksgiving that we

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Speaker 1: wanted him to kick it off since those going to

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Speaker 1: be the games we get into right away. Evan Abrams,

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Speaker 1: take it away, brother.

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Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers. We're thankful for you.

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Speaker 4: God. I try to keep my information pretty simple, you know,

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Speaker 4: for the fans, make it easy to understand. There's nothing

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Speaker 4: simpler than Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 2: So hear me out.

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Speaker 4: If the Lions, Cowboys, and forty nine Ers all closees

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Speaker 4: seven point favorites, it will be seven point favorites or higher.

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Speaker 4: It will be the first Thanksgiving slate with three touchdown

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Speaker 4: favorites or higher. Ever since two thousand and six we've

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Speaker 4: had three games or more. It's never happened, and before

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Speaker 4: that two thousand and one would be the last time

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Speaker 4: both games were sus minus seven are higher. So pretty crazy.

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Speaker 4: We are in that zone now that leads us to

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Speaker 4: trend number one touchdown favorites or higher, twenty one and

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Speaker 4: two straight up and seventeen six against the spread on

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Speaker 4: Thanksgiving since two thousand and six. Basically, it's just chalk

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Speaker 4: in the wildcard era, so that since nineteen ninety they

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Speaker 4: are twenty seven and four straight up, twenty three and

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Speaker 4: eight against the spread, one step further favorites of over

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Speaker 4: ten points eight and oh against his spread on Thanksgiving

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Speaker 4: since two thousand and five, eleven and oh against the

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Speaker 4: spread in the last thirty years. Now, now let's talk

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Speaker 4: about the road for a second. That's what I'm saying, Chad.

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Speaker 4: There's really nothing more simpler than this. Last twenty years,

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Speaker 4: favorites of seven or more on the road on Thanksgiving

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Speaker 4: nine and oh straight up eight and one against the spread.

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Speaker 4: The only Ats loss was the Bills last year, road

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Speaker 4: favorites on Thanksgiving twenty four and one straight up nineteen

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Speaker 4: six against the spread since two thousand and four. Now,

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Speaker 4: finally the Cowboys, they've lost four straight games against the

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Speaker 4: spread on Thanksgiving. They are one one and eleven against

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Speaker 4: his spread in their last twelve games on Thanksgiving dating

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Speaker 4: back to twenty eleven, and Dak Prescott one in five

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Speaker 4: against his spread on Thanksgiving. That one in five mark

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Speaker 4: worst of any quarterbacks in nineteen ninety. That's Thanksgiving. It's favorites.

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Speaker 4: They usually cover, doesn't matter where, even on the road,

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Speaker 4: except for the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is going to be interesting because that's

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Speaker 1: one of the biggest numbers. And Simon and I are

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Speaker 1: going to have to dig in because it's a game

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Speaker 1: that the more research I did forget about Thanksgiving, the

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Speaker 1: more it felt like there was one side that we

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Speaker 1: should be taking. All Right, we got a lot to

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Speaker 1: get through. We want to get through every game. Like

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Speaker 1: I said, we got to do big Balls, we gotta

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Speaker 1: do Foxhole, we got to do Simon says, we got

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Speaker 1: to do exec Decision. Simon Normally we would do sharp calls.

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Speaker 1: We thought about maybe doing a sharp calls just on

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Speaker 1: Thanksgiving games, but you've basically had twenty four hours to

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Speaker 1: connect with the brethren since we last podcasted anything worth

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Speaker 1: discussing it all from a sharp call point of view.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there, I'm talking Rain.

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Speaker 1: Rain telephone range. I'm man.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll just fly through it. I won't break it

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Speaker 2: down too much for a break it down anyway. But

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Speaker 2: Evan nailed it, Like Thanksgiving is very easy. A lot

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Speaker 2: of guys just go by the trends, that just go

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Speaker 2: by the book, and it's pretty simple. You fade the cowboys,

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Speaker 2: you bet the favorites, and that's just what we'll guys

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Speaker 2: have done. I mean, ever since I've joined the show chat,

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Speaker 2: it's what we've done. You can go back and listen

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Speaker 2: to all our Thanksgiving shows if you want. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: do the exact same thing basically this week. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: professional Betters the one where I didn't really dive much

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Speaker 2: into it. Maybe that's when I need to take a

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Speaker 2: harder look at was that at Seahawks game. I just

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Speaker 2: I thought Gina was gonna play, so I was just

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Speaker 2: gonna be on the forty nine ers. It's looking like

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Speaker 2: Gina is gonna play, and the numbers come down. It

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Speaker 2: was at seven now it's down to six and a half.

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Speaker 2: So it's definitely a game we need to break down. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: games we're gonna be on. The Pros love This will

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Speaker 2: not be shocking to people Houston, Texans. The Pros love them.

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Speaker 2: I love them this week. To think they're plus one

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Speaker 2: and a half against the Jaguars at home, that's one

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Speaker 2: that a lot of guys talked about. One you already

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Speaker 2: talked about on Sunday Chad Vegas Raiders. I think it

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Speaker 2: was nine and a half. Ten Now it's down to

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Speaker 2: nine against the Chiefs. You know, shocking to me because

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Speaker 2: I'm on the other side of this one. The Pros

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Speaker 2: love the Bills. I like the Eagles. Talked to a

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Speaker 2: lot of guys they really liked the Bills at three

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Speaker 2: and a half. I said, I bet you do. I

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Speaker 2: bet you liked that three and a half. How nice

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Speaker 2: of them to give you that hook on that Bills team.

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Speaker 2: So that's when we'll have to break down another another

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Speaker 2: two that the pros love. Arizona Cardinals dog at home

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Speaker 2: against the Rams and the Cleveland Browns catching two and

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Speaker 2: a half in Denver. So yeah, some early bets here.

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Speaker 2: But like Chad said, I'm in Hawaii, so this is

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Speaker 2: just Monday. Like I didn't even talk to I have

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Speaker 2: a couple of messages this morning, but nothing like, hey,

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Speaker 2: six figures coming in on this side, you need to

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Speaker 2: hit this side. Nothing, no crazy big bets. I've seen

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Speaker 2: a couple, you know, five figure bets, but nothing too

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Speaker 2: crazy yet. Bet there will be big bets. I'll try

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Speaker 2: to tweet it out. But Thanksgiving games, there's gonna be

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Speaker 2: big bets. It's a standalone. The books will take whatever

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Speaker 2: kind of money you want to get down. If you

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Speaker 2: have an angle, they're gonna take your money. This is

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Speaker 2: like Chad just said. Or I don't know, Chad, maybe

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Speaker 2: it was my metro. I'll lose my mind. But this

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Speaker 2: is a holiday weekend for betters. Like a lot of

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Speaker 2: us don't have wives and kids right like Thanksgiving. Yes,

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Speaker 2: you guys are all spending your time with your family.

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Speaker 2: We're working this is a big business day for a

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Speaker 2: lot of us, and the fact they've added the Friday,

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Speaker 2: you know, I thought there'd be a lot more action

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Speaker 2: on the Jets from the pros. I haven't heard anything, Chad.

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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna let that number run. What's it

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Speaker 2: up to ten? Now, I'll check what it's on bet

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Speaker 2: three six five, But it's been running. So yeah, people

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Speaker 2: I know want an opinion on that game from the pros.

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Speaker 2: I really haven't heard one. People. I think they're just

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Speaker 2: like me. They're gonna wait for that number to get up.

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Speaker 2: Like I don't want to be on the Jets and

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Speaker 2: it's not gonna be fun. But that's that's a big

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Speaker 2: number for a divisional games. So yeah, Like for sharp calls,

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Speaker 2: Evan kind of nailed it, like Thanksgivings are pretty boring

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Speaker 2: by the trends kind of day, like you just you

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Speaker 2: bet the trends and you hope it hits all right.

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Speaker 1: Well, let's get into it. First game up right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's the one to talk about right away. It's green

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Speaker 1: Bay at Detroit.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think our first instinct, even when we talked about

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Speaker 1: it on Sunday was green Bay, and then we started

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Speaker 1: talking about it a little more and a little deeper.

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Speaker 1: We don't expect the Lions to have two bad games

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Speaker 1: in a row. And if you look at the Packers

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Speaker 1: like they had key drops that the Chargers had key

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Speaker 1: drops from Keenan Allen on scoring opportunities, one on third

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Speaker 1: down that would have been a first down at the

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Speaker 1: goal line and then one touchdown. The defense was truly

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Speaker 1: terrible for the Chargers. The Lions are a better coach team.

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Speaker 1: Now we've got the stats about liking the favorites, and

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Speaker 1: it makes sense, right it's a short week, you're getting

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Speaker 1: the better team. They're a big favorite for a reason.

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Speaker 1: There's less sort of schematically teams have to figure out

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Speaker 1: when they're the good team versus the bad team that

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Speaker 1: needs to find the tricker you to keep it close.

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Speaker 1: Here's the thing that scares me, and it's a stat

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Speaker 1: we've loved all season, is playing these road dogs in

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Speaker 1: the division. If you think about road dogs, road favorites,

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Speaker 1: home dogs, home favorites, the best then diagram of this

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Speaker 1: is the road dog, which covers it a fifty four

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Speaker 1: percent clip so at the past twenty years. So that's

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Speaker 1: sort of the only thing. But I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: enough for me to say I want to go in

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Speaker 1: on Green Bay right now.

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Speaker 2: No, I like the lines, and I'll break it down

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Speaker 2: way more because I think we're doing a game by

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Speaker 2: game and convinced me for our Yeah yeah, Thanksgiving special.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, if you really want an in depth breakdown

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Speaker 2: of each of these games, we'll give it to you.

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Speaker 2: But can already tell you right now my Thanksgiving slate,

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Speaker 2: we gonna run through these three games. It's gonna be

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be Washington, gonna be Seattle most likely. The

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Speaker 2: lines so pretty boring by me. I was. I wanted

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Speaker 2: to get there in the forty nine, especially all the

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Speaker 2: stats Evan gave. But like Chad just said, these it's

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Speaker 2: tough these divisional games to not take the dog for

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Speaker 2: me and Thanksgiving Chad's dry, Like I gotta break away

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Speaker 2: from that. I just can't take all the dogs here.

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Speaker 2: So I am forcing this lins pick a little bit.

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Speaker 2: But I think Chad just talked about it's like, do

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Speaker 2: we really think Golf's can have a back to back

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Speaker 2: three turnover game? No, It's that was just such an outlier,

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Speaker 2: such a bad game that they were due for. And

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Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure Evan said before that game, he'd been

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Speaker 2: an eleven to zero ATS run against the North, so

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Speaker 2: the Bears broke that. Wouldn't be shocked to see him

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Speaker 2: start another another run here, right, It's like the green

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Speaker 2: Bay coming high off a win, like you said, a

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Speaker 2: short week now on the road. The Lions know that

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Speaker 2: stolen there, right. I don't think Dank Campbell's gonna be

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Speaker 2: blowing smoke up their ass all week. I think it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be like you, guys, got lucky, You better get ready.

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Speaker 2: We got another divisional game coming in here. So I'm

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Speaker 2: right there with you, Chetta. I wanted to be on

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Speaker 2: Green Bay, but I like the lines here, especially at

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Speaker 2: seven and a half. I don't. I don't mind that

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Speaker 2: number at all.

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Speaker 1: Washington at Dallas this game, we both like. Washington here

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Speaker 1: got have a lot. This one got a lot of

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Speaker 1: attention from us on Sunday night, so it matches the

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Speaker 1: criteria of that sort of ATS edge for the road

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Speaker 1: dog in the division. Dak terrible and Thanksgiving mm hmm.

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Speaker 1: The only reason we held off is we thought it

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Speaker 1: might even go up a little bit more. It's pretty

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Speaker 1: much State at eleven. This is a pros Joe's game

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Speaker 1: right now. There's money on the Commanders, there's bets on

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and pretty simple one. Maybe we finally get caught

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Speaker 2: this year, and maybe we could caught again next year.

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Speaker 2: But I said, every year, you're gonna get three two

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Speaker 2: to three free points of value every Thanksgiving beat against

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys. And Evan just gave you the stats that

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Speaker 2: it plays out that way. What was it, Evan, eleven

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Speaker 2: to one, the last twelve ats Faith and the Cowboys

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Speaker 2: like the Cowboys. I mean, think about that. You're one

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Speaker 2: and eleven if you bet them the last twelve every Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 2: And here we are again, Chad, another Thanksgiving. They're getting

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Speaker 2: all the money. And I can tell you just from

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Speaker 2: off my memory, we had no hope last year. I'm

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Speaker 2: almost pozose. Last year we were down double digits with

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Speaker 2: Daniel Jones needing to get a last second touchdown. I

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Speaker 2: think even a two point or something crazy just to

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Speaker 2: cover whatever the number was last year, and Dallas took

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Speaker 2: the ball all the way down the field. Right they're

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Speaker 2: about to be up twenty one. I think they get

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Speaker 2: a turnover and the Giants go all way down the

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Speaker 2: field and get this the back door in a meaningless

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Speaker 2: score with you know, thirty seconds left, and it's just

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Speaker 2: that's how it kind of breaks for this Cowboys team. So, yeah,

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Speaker 2: we've been lucky. I know we're riding a really lucky

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Speaker 2: trend here, but I can't avoid it. I told you,

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Speaker 2: it's just you're just gonna get these free points every

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Speaker 2: every year because we already see it right now, seventy

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Speaker 2: percent of the bets, seventy percent of the tickets, it's

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Speaker 2: on the Cowboys. Like, that's just the public is that's

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Speaker 2: the public darling right now. So I'm right there with you, Chad.

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Speaker 2: The the Washington just got embarrassed. Lost at Home is

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Speaker 2: a big favorite to the Giants. Everyone's off of well,

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Speaker 2: no one's gonna be better. We'll take the eleven.

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Speaker 1: I'm surprised that you feel strongly about Seattle here. Plus

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Speaker 1: seven opened it four and a half, moved up to

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Speaker 1: six while we were doing the show on Sunday, largely

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Speaker 1: because of the Geno Smith lack of news.

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Speaker 2: No. Yeah, like I threw a bet on them just

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Speaker 2: because just in case.

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Speaker 1: But then Pete Carroll says he's gonna be fine, he's

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Speaker 1: gonna play, So now it's as seven. I don't I

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Speaker 1: don't love this game, like I I feel like, I

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Speaker 1: don't love Seattle. I don't think they're good enough. But

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Speaker 1: I don't like Kyle Shanahan as a big road favorite.

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Speaker 1: It's historically a pretty bad spot for him. So what's

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Speaker 1: my edge here? Why do you feel strongly about Seattle?

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Speaker 2: I mean a bunch of reasons. I would say a

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Speaker 2: divisional home dog. Usually those trends are are good to

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Speaker 2: us taken, especially at this number. But yeah, the only

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Speaker 2: the only like the negative for me, why I'm not

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Speaker 2: gonna bett a lot on it just because of the

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Speaker 2: trends Evan just gave us, Like you bet favorites on Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 2: It's that's just the way it is, Like you just

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Speaker 2: bet the favorites on Thanksgiving and you're gonna be profitable

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Speaker 2: long term. We'll never makes sense why the books don't

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Speaker 2: bump the dogs up, but they don't like for some

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Speaker 2: reason they know they'll get the money back by Sunday anyway.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's I'm with you, chat. It's there's hard

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Speaker 2: to find reasons why you like Seattle here, But my

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Speaker 2: my biggest reason would just be yes, it's a short week.

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Speaker 2: The forty nine ers on the Road after what I

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Speaker 2: think was a lucky cover. Baker had his first interception

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Speaker 2: in the red zone in three or four years. For

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Speaker 2: them to get that cover, you know, a lot of

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Speaker 2: things just don't go right for Tampa the end there,

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Speaker 2: and it feels a little bit like you just said

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Speaker 2: the numbers moved Because I thought Gino was gonna be out,

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Speaker 2: it made sense to the number moving, But if he's

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Speaker 2: gonna play, it feels like numbers moved a little too much. So, yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's seven, I'm gonna be on the Seahawks. But if

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Speaker 2: it gets back down the six, I probably could talk

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Speaker 2: back into going back on the forty nine ERDs. That's

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Speaker 2: what I have right now, is I have a six ticket.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, if it's Day seven, yeah I'm gonna have

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Speaker 2: a lot more money on the Seahawks at that seven.

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Speaker 2: That's just too big of a number for a divisional game.

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Speaker 1: You make a great point about Baker, which we're gonna

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Speaker 1: get to later in the show and we break down

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Speaker 1: the Bucks game. It's a it's an interesting team to

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Speaker 1: be thinking about right now. We just went through the

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Speaker 1: Thanksgiving games. Detroit, we like Washington, we like Simnon, like Seattle,

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Speaker 1: US seven I'm not quite convinced yet, kind of just

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Speaker 1: going to wait around on that one. Miami at the

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Speaker 1: New York Jets Black Friday game. First every Black Friday

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Speaker 1: game Cow Miami at the New York Jets. The numbers

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Speaker 1: at ten at BET three sixty five. It was at

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Speaker 1: nine and a half. It's gone up. This was a

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Speaker 1: game where I think you and I might have talked

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Speaker 1: about and we wanted to wait to see if it

401
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Speaker 1: went up. So there's a backup quarterback trend. Okay, we

402
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Speaker 1: should consider Tim Boyle is going to be playing in

403
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Speaker 1: place of Zach Wilson. Backup quarterbacks fifty three percent against

404
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Speaker 1: the spread the last five years in their first game,

405
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Speaker 1: fifty six percent the past two years, and in the

406
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Speaker 1: first of the games they played their fifty five percent.

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Speaker 1: So there is a little bit of an edge for

408
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Speaker 1: Tim Boyle against the spread based on history. Also the

409
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Speaker 1: blowout factor teams that lost by twenty points against teams

410
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Speaker 1: that haven't lost by twenty points since twenty twenty covering

411
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Speaker 1: at sixty seven percent. To me, it feels like you

412
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Speaker 1: wanted back the Jets here. My fear is that the

413
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Speaker 1: Dolphins just came off a horrific game where they probably

414
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Speaker 1: should have scored eight million points and left so many

415
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Speaker 1: opportunities on the field. I mean, they had nine possessions

416
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Speaker 1: through the third quarter and no punts and only had

417
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Speaker 1: a three point lead in the game. Do I worry

418
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Speaker 1: also that the Jets defense, like they showed their frustrations

419
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Speaker 1: at the end of that Bills game. Are they just

420
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Speaker 1: done because of how bad that offense is that they

421
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Speaker 1: have to support? So eleen Jets? But I'm anxious.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the Jets are gonna keep fighting though.

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Speaker 2: That's why they're making the qv change. The big thing

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Speaker 2: to me too with them is the fact that Rogers

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Speaker 2: is in the building, like him coming in every day,

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Speaker 2: and they see the work he's putting in the try

427
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Speaker 2: to get back. It's gonna inspire you a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Right.

429
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 2: It's like, listen, we don't have a quarterback right now.

430
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 2: We know if we win a couple of games, this

431
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 2: guy might be back. We just got to keep at it.

432
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,439
Speaker 2: And he mixed into this is a divisional game, the

433
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: number one team in your division. Yeah, this is a

434
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 2: huge game for the Jets. So I'm with you, chat,

435
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait, I'm gonna get this. I'll wrap to

436
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 2: ten now, just in case, I'm not gonna put a

437
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 2: lot on it. I think it's still we'll keep going up.

438
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 2: But yeah, whoever is the quarterback for the Jets, I

439
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 2: was gonna be on them this week. It makes me happy. No,

440
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 2: it's not. Zach Wilson is as bad and as nobody

441
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 2: as Tim Boyle might be. At least I know that

442
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 2: he might have some type of upside. I just don't

443
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 2: have that with Zach Wilson. We know exactly what Zack

444
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 2: Wilson is. So yeah, we can't put this in the

445
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 2: contest though, right, No, that's up, Yeah Friday. I like

446
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 2: the Jets. I would have liked them at ten and

447
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,439
Speaker 2: a half in contest, but yeah, we can't put it in,

448
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 2: So I guess that's mute.

449
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 1: I think it. I think it will get there. The

450
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 1: numbers at.

451
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 2: Ten h me too. But the pros might come in

452
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 2: on this and it alsome. We wake up and it's

453
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 2: down to seven and a half, you know, well.

454
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 1: A little bit like we'll get a little bit of

455
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: a clue if it's headed in that direction. But even

456
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,919
Speaker 1: on Sunday or like Friday, think about this, it's a

457
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 1: standalone game. There's going to be a huge.

458
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 2: Rush, all the things giving teasers, money line parlayser tied

459
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 2: to it.

460
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, but Friday, Friday morning, people are just going to

461
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 1: load up on the Dolphins, Like, this is not a

462
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 1: game where I'm nervous I'm going to miss the best

463
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 1: of the number. I think we're gonna get it whenever

464
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 1: we want it. The next game on our list the

465
00:24:55,600 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 1: New England Patriots visiting the New York Football the Resurgent Giants.

466
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 1: This was a game that you tagged on Sunday night.

467
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: It was at three and a half. I betted at

468
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 1: three and a half. It moved to a bunch of

469
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 1: books and forget track everything we're doing. In the Action

470
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 1: Network app, you can see the bets at least that

471
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 1: I've made since Sunday. This is one of them. To me,

472
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 1: it is about Mac Jones, right, doesn't matter the Patriots

473
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 1: had to buy, doesn't really matter who the coaches like.

474
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 1: Mac Jones can't execute and he doesn't have the team anymore.

475
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Tommy DeVito is bad. I know he's bad.

476
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 2: I know he got really lucky last week. But I

477
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 2: don't think Mac Jones is that much better. Mac Jones

478
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 2: just makes bad decisions. Consistently, and he might even be

479
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,919
Speaker 2: the one playing. He might Who knows the Patriots are

480
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 2: going to play here? Chad, Like, no one really knows.

481
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 2: We just know it's not a good quarterback, and that

482
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 2: to me is all that really matters. Right, It's like

483
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 2: these two teams aren't that different because the Patriot Patriots

484
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 2: have such bad injuries to that defense that like their

485
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,199
Speaker 2: advantage having a great defense. I mean it falls on

486
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 2: the coach, but I feel like the Giants have better

487
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:13,919
Speaker 2: guys on their side right defensively, It's it's an interesting matchup,

488
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,199
Speaker 2: but nothing's changed here. Yeah, there's still there's still some

489
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 2: three and a half's out there. We'll make this a

490
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,120
Speaker 2: quick one. Like if this is three and a half

491
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 2: in the contest, me and Chat are both you know,

492
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 2: comfortable taking this number at that against the Patriots. They're

493
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,199
Speaker 2: just the pros are going to keep betting the Patriots.

494
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 2: I talked to a couple of guys I'd even mention

495
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:31,640
Speaker 2: that they like the Patriots, and I just laughed at them,

496
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 2: just like, Okay, I bet you do. And it's like

497
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 2: I'm done with that life. So yeah, maybe they'll maybe

498
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 2: they'll catch us here for back in time. We DeVito

499
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 2: after the game of his life. But it's it's more

500
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 2: backing just the Giants. Yeah, I could see that I'm

501
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 2: losing this game, but not by more than a field goal,

502
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 2: right shait? Like, who are these Patriots to be catching

503
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,239
Speaker 2: this kind of number? So weird weird numbered be hung

504
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 2: by the books here.

505
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 1: The Patriots should not be getting the hook on the road. No,

506
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 1: just shouldn't create hot against By the way, I like

507
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 1: to call him touchdown Tommy TD stands for touchdown with me.

508
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 1: Can we get that going?

509
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 2: Uh?

510
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 1: Touchdown Tommy, He's the best. I love when you say, uh, yeah,

511
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 1: I bet you do. That sounds like just like such

512
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 1: a Philly asshole thing to say, you know, it's it's

513
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 1: so philly. One thing to think about. H I want

514
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 1: to bet the dogs in the low total games NFL

515
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 1: underdogs in game with totals below forty two, which is

516
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 1: this game, sixty percent against the spread since twenty eighteen.

517
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 1: Also thirty four, twenty one, and two this season, so

518
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 1: that's about sixty percent this season as well. So we

519
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 1: like the Giants here, We're not afraid find that hook though,

520
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 1: right we talked about Tampa Bay before we talked about

521
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield. This is such an interesting confounding team to me.

522
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: They're at Indianapolis. Indianapolis is a two point underdog right

523
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 1: now in this game. I'm sorry, Indianapol's two point favorite

524
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:19,160
Speaker 1: in this game. Every game, the Bucks look like they

525
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,919
Speaker 1: are a play or two away from covering. And you

526
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 1: mentioned Baker and his red zone interception this past week

527
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 1: that would have helped them cover. Like that game against

528
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 1: the Niners, every series it felt like, oh yeah, they

529
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 1: got a shot, they got a shot, Like the Niners

530
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 1: weren't dominating, despite the fact brock Purdy had a perfect

531
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:47,239
Speaker 1: QB rating. It just felt like the Bucks were in

532
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 1: it the whole time. But neither of these teams are

533
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: standouts and anything, which is why the line is what

534
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: it is. I don't really see an edge here.

535
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 2: Do just in the sense that everywhere, all the public,

536
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 2: everyone's gonna bet the Golts like the pro The pros

537
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 2: are the only ones betting the Bucks. And this game

538
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 2: is the exact same game as when the Bucks played

539
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 2: Houston the number was two and a half. It landed

540
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 2: on two no one. I mean I literally had to

541
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 2: beg people to bet the Bucks in that game, and

542
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 2: I hated every minute of it, like we were dead.

543
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 2: We needed Baker have the most insane game ever against

544
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 2: Houston to cover that number because CJ was playing so well.

545
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 2: So totally get it. Like I was so mad at

546
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 2: the Bucks last week. I mean, I again, I did

547
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 2: terrible last week, but that one really hurt losing that

548
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 2: one of the Bucks because it was right there. They

549
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: had multip opportunities to cover that backdoor and they just

550
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:47,719
Speaker 2: couldn't get there. So it's it's tough. Like I get

551
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 2: where you're coming from, Chad, Like, no real read on it,

552
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 2: but I do like the Bucks. I just I like

553
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 2: what they can do offensively to keep up with this

554
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 2: Colts team, and especially with it being indoors the cold

555
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 2: second he's terrible. The best thing about this Bucks team

556
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 2: or the receivers like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans still

557
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 2: playing at one of the highest levels you can ask,

558
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 2: like it's crazy how talented they are, both of them.

559
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 2: So yeah, if people want my read on this one,

560
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 2: I'm sorry to do it, do you. I do like

561
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 2: the Bucks here.

562
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 1: I think this number is going to go up.

563
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 2: It could. If it doesn't, though, that should even be

564
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 2: more of a reason to like the bucks. If this

565
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 2: doesn't get up to three, that just shows you the

566
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 2: really smart money's holding this number at two and a half.

567
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 2: Because right now I'm looking at the books, it's eighty

568
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 2: seven percent of the handle and fifty eight percent of

569
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 2: the bets right now are on the Colts. So that

570
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 2: means all the early money, it's only Tuesday, all the

571
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: early money right now is on the Colts, and that

572
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 2: number is not budged.

573
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, the books also have a really sneaky good third

574
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 1: receiver in Trey Palmer.

575
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 2: Would you go to high school with his dad or something?

576
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 1: No, I just keep watching the bus gates because fucking

577
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 1: betting this team and every time like this kid's making

578
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 1: some great play.

579
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, now they got they got a bunch of random guys.

580
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 2: Like even even that running back they're brought up, he's

581
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 2: been all right. Like it's just the bucks. For me,

582
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 2: what they're lacking is coaching. I just think they had

583
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 2: bad coaching.

584
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 1: Indianapolis just wave. This is from producer Tito Darius Leonard.

585
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 1: Darius Leonard, who had been an All Pro, had signed

586
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 1: a massive deal, has struggled with injuries the past couple

587
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 1: of years, had basically been moved down to the depth

588
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 1: chart where he was playing maybe first and second down

589
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 1: in a series in that just waves that is that

590
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 1: defense is hasn't been great. It's it's stats are okay,

591
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 1: but strategically and at the wrong moments, they have given

592
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 1: up the worst plays. That's that's interesting. Interesting. Okay, No,

593
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 1: I didn't go to high school with his dad. By

594
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 1: the way, don't think that like your old jokes are

595
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 1: gonna get by me.

596
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 2: It wasn't in that old joke. I mean, the dude's

597
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 2: probably in his early twenties. It's just like you, it's

598
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 2: just such a random name drop. It's like, why don't

599
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 2: you talk about everyone's third, third receiver of their team.

600
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 2: I was just like, what's happening?

601
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 1: Well, I just happened to see him make some place

602
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 1: to other day and I thought thought he was going

603
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 1: to help us get to a cover there. And it

604
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 1: turns out, you know, Baker kept it from happening. The Saints,

605
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 1: our favorite team, the New Orleans Saints. We didn't have

606
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 1: to bet him last week that. Uh, this number is

607
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 1: kind of all over the board, like, yeah, they were

608
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 1: one point favorites, now they're one point underdogs. Desmond Ritter

609
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 1: is starting again for the Falcons. Ye, in my hopes

610
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 1: and dreams, we're just gonna walk away from this.

611
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, we can pass, and I do, obviously, I do.

612
00:32:56,560 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 2: Like the Saints. It's a drug I can't quit. The

613
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 2: only pushback I'll give is I think Ritters finally figured

614
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 2: out that he is not a quarterback and that he

615
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 2: needs to rely on his legs more. And we saw

616
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 2: Dobbs just the other week give this Saints defense a

617
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 2: ton of trouble being able to scramble. Now, this is

618
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 2: crazy to say, but Ritter is nowhere, nowhere close to

619
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 2: the pocket presence that Dobbs has. Right Like Ritter, he

620
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 2: makes one read. If it's not there, he pulls it

621
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 2: down and runs it, or he'll throw it at that

622
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 2: read that's in triple coverage and just say screw it, like,

623
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 2: go make a play. He's terrible. So I don't know, Chad.

624
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 2: I mean, all I can think of is that stat

625
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 2: that Evan gives us about a team moving from a

626
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 2: favorite to a dog. You have that here with Atlanta

627
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 2: makes me like the Saints even more. But yeah, we

628
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 2: sit here really early in the week. All the money

629
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 2: looks like all the money's coming in Atlanta. Interesting and

630
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 2: I need to know more about Derek Carr. So I

631
00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 2: have no money bet on this game yet, but I'm

632
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,479
Speaker 2: with Chad like, hopefully we stay away, stay away from

633
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 2: this one for all of you guys.

634
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 1: Hopefully, hopefully we can stay away. Hopefully we can resist.

635
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 2: People are sick of it.

636
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 1: Every urge in the fiber of our beings to not

637
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 1: bet on the Saints because they have done nothing but

638
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 1: broken our heart this year. Really, in every scenario, they

639
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,280
Speaker 1: have underperformed exactly when we need them to perform.

640
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 2: It's and again, I can't quit them because it's the

641
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 2: defense and the weapons they have on offense. It's like

642
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,800
Speaker 2: they should be such a good team in this horrible division,

643
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:35,320
Speaker 2: but the end of the day, they have Derek Carr

644
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 2: and Dennis Allen. It's like those are the two the

645
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 2: biggest negative factors of that team. So yeah, Chat, it's

646
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 2: it's a tough one. But don't worry people, I got

647
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:45,879
Speaker 2: some I got some good ones coming up for you're

648
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 2: coming up.

649
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 1: We got a whole like the Afternoon Slate. It feels

650
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 1: like every game I want to bet and you already

651
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 1: mentioned one off the top that is really interesting that

652
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: we're going to get into As a reminder, you can

653
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 1: catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For

654
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 1: those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like,

655
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 1: subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. Okay, Carolina is

656
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 1: visiting Tennessee. Tennessee right now is down to a three

657
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. It was four, So that

658
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:18,879
Speaker 1: tells you a little bit about where the money's coming

659
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:22,959
Speaker 1: in right now. Frank Wright might be coaching for his job.

660
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:28,839
Speaker 1: He truly coached a horrible game against the Cowboys just

661
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:31,279
Speaker 1: I mean, the team didn't help, for sure, but he

662
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 1: did not put his team in a position to succeed.

663
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: Mike Rabel might might be auditioning for new jobs right

664
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 1: Mike Rabel could be the next Patriots head coach. They

665
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 1: got Derek Henry is going to be a free agent.

666
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: Will Levis, who you've pointed out, he's just not good.

667
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 1: And look at the stats from this past weekend, And

668
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 1: we always talk about this on the show, like understanding

669
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 1: the difference between what you see on paper and what

670
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 1: the wise guys are doing, which is looking a little

671
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 1: bit deeper at the numbers. And Levis's stats from this

672
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:10,760
Speaker 1: past week are a perfect example of that. Thirteen to seventeen,

673
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty eight yards, nine point three yards

674
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 1: per attempt, two touchdowns.

675
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 3: Not bad.

676
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 1: Well, the YPA is held by the fact he had

677
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 1: a forty three yard flee flicker to DeAndre Hopkins. One

678
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 1: hundred and seven of his passing yards came after the

679
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 1: Titans were already out of the game against soft coverage. Overall,

680
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 1: this team only ran thirty eight plays. Thanks to Music

681
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: Citymiracles dot Com, by the way, for these great stats

682
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:39,840
Speaker 1: that I'm ripping. The problem is the Panthers are just

683
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 1: as bad as the Titans. I think most of these

684
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 1: teams want the season to end already.

685
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,439
Speaker 2: I just love that they have a site based on

686
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 2: one play in Titan's history. It's like the Eagles with

687
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 2: the Hungry Dog Mask. Like there's so many companies in

688
00:36:57,200 --> 00:37:00,399
Speaker 2: Philadelphia that popped up called Hungry Dogs because all those

689
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 2: players were dog mask. It's just god bless football fans.

690
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 1: Well, look, you know I was in You know, I

691
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 1: wrote the best selling book The Odds and about the season.

692
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 1: I spent in Las Vegas track and professional betters, and

693
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 1: I happened to be with the main better. I was

694
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 1: tracking that Saturday of the Music City Miracle. He had

695
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:24,919
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars on the Titans to win that game.

696
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 2: Oh my god.

697
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 1: We were eating breakfast in a diner and on his pager,

698
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 1: because don't forget this is nineteen ninety nine. He saw

699
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 1: that the Bills were winning with god knows how much

700
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: time left, and he throws his pager on the table.

701
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 1: He's disgusted. We pay the bill. We're walking out of

702
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,760
Speaker 1: the restaurant to his gold corvette in the parking lot.

703
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 1: We get in the car and his cell phone rings

704
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,320
Speaker 1: and it's his partner saying, can you fucking believe we

705
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 1: won that game? Between the time we paid the bill

706
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 1: and the time we got to the car, the Music

707
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,320
Speaker 1: City Miracle had happened. He had won one hundred thousand

708
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 1: dollars and then spent the rest of the car ride

709
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:04,839
Speaker 1: home figuring out where else he was going to put

710
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: that money in play, because that's betting, my friend.

711
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I want to apologize for Matt Mitchell

712
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 2: for saying anything. I don't even know. I'm so sorry, Matt.

713
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: I'm just glad that we have so much time on

714
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 1: this episode to go into stories like this, So it's.

715
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 2: It's wonderful keeping going.

716
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 1: Ah, Simon, what do you think of this game?

717
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 2: I can't believe I'm about to say this people, but

718
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 2: it's we're betting Carolina. No fuck Carolina. My only option

719
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 2: is Tennessee and my survival pool. This is We're in

720
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 2: week twelve, this is where we're at, so fucking hate it.

721
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 2: I gotta I gotta believe in the Titans. If you've

722
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 2: been riding with me, you six tons of bitches, you

723
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,320
Speaker 2: better go with me. Because we lose, we all lose together.

724
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 2: So Titans survivor pick. I'm taking the minus three and

725
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 2: a half. I don't care if it's super chalky. Give

726
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 2: Derek Henry fifty touches for all our care. This is

727
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 2: such a verable game, like this is everything they know.

728
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 2: They need this one desperately, and the fear is that

729
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 2: they've quit on him and that they've kind of rolled over.

730
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,839
Speaker 2: I just don't see it. Like Carolina, that makes more sense, right,

731
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 2: Like Frank Reich does even last the season there, That

732
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:17,320
Speaker 2: makes more sense rather than verable. So yeah, not making

733
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:19,399
Speaker 2: this pig balls or anything like that. But Survivor pick,

734
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 2: Oh my god, on a rookie quarterback gotta do it.

735
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 2: Gotta take the Titans. It's the only option I got.

736
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:27,319
Speaker 1: All right, can I give you?

737
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 2: So?

738
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:30,840
Speaker 1: Look the number is moving in Carolina's direction, right, So

739
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 1: that's number one, number two. And again this is just

740
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 1: about the spread. Yeah, teams after losing by twenty plus

741
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 1: points at home getting three plus points the next week

742
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 1: seventy percent against the spread since twenty seventeen. There's one

743
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 1: game that fits that trend in Week twelve, Carolina Panthers,

744
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 1: my friend.

745
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's a great matchup of them. They're going

746
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 2: up against Will Lovis. But damn it, I don't know

747
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:00,799
Speaker 2: what else to do. It's the only thing I can

748
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 2: do for survivors.

749
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 1: So can we pause the podcast for fifteen minutes so

750
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,359
Speaker 1: I can reread the odds and come up with some

751
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 1: more anecdotes from the book, so I can annoy Matt

752
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 1: Mitchell to no end in his busiest week of the year.

753
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh gets Cincinnati this game. It flipped right, So I

754
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:23,760
Speaker 1: think Pittsburgh was a one point underdog on Sunday. Indeed,

755
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 1: you loved it, you bet it. It's now flipped. Cincinnati

756
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:31,360
Speaker 1: is plus one. Don't forget teams that open as underdogs

757
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 1: close His favorites struggle to cover that number forty nine

758
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 1: eighty six against the spreadsince twenty nineteen nineteen and thirty

759
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 1: nine in the last two seasons. Pittsburgh's one of those teams.

760
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 2: God damn it, no, no, but.

761
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,279
Speaker 1: You got them. Like that's like the Rams last week, right,

762
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 1: I bet the Rams at plus one. They closed it

763
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 1: minus too. You just got to get him when they're

764
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,279
Speaker 1: an underdog, not when they're a favorite. So if you're

765
00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,359
Speaker 1: listening to the show, you kind of want to avoid

766
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 1: the Steelers. Of the point, I actually feel like we

767
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 1: might want to go in on the Bengals. We've got

768
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 1: the backup quarterback theory that I talked about before versus

769
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 1: a playmaking Steelers defense, which is scary. But the thing

770
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 1: that like is the X factor to me is Matt

771
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 1: Cannona got fired this morning. So how much does that

772
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 1: change the offense in four days or is it more

773
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:28,359
Speaker 1: about psyche or at this point is the game of pass?

774
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, we can, we can pass on it for now.

775
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 2: That's what thinks about doing this on Tuesday. It's like,

776
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:36,720
Speaker 2: I wish I had a harder opinion on this one,

777
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 2: but see, I just gave you all the stats, like

778
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 2: it's it's scaring me off the Steelers. But I do

779
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 2: like the Steelers, especially the fact they fired Mecanna just

780
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 2: so that fan base can learn he wasn't a problem.

781
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:51,919
Speaker 2: The problem is you don't have a quarterback. I think

782
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:55,279
Speaker 2: that's the issue. It's like, since since he's been there,

783
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 2: he had Roethlisberger to Rudolph to a dude, Dame Hodges

784
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 2: to just a bunch of trash, and you know, Pittsburgh fans,

785
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 2: I just want to blame someone, and he was the

786
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 2: easy guy to blame. And I'm sure they're gonna start

787
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 2: blaming Tomlin even though they've never had a losing season

788
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 2: with Tomlin. It's just fans are dumb. Like we say

789
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:17,879
Speaker 2: all the time, fans are dumb. I mean, I grew

790
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:20,720
Speaker 2: up listening to WIP Philadelphia Radio. Some of the dumbest

791
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:23,959
Speaker 2: fans in the world. Philadelphia Baby, Like just people calling

792
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,399
Speaker 2: up every week to fire Andy Reid, the future Hall

793
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 2: of Fame coach. It's just the way it is. It's

794
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 2: just how people are. So I'm with you, like the

795
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 2: Canda thing might be actually beneficial to them, just because

796
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 2: maybe that does give him extra motivation of this game.

797
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 2: Who knows, But Chad's right, Like, there's just a lot

798
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:44,880
Speaker 2: of stats that favor the first start for the backup

799
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 2: in their first game. And that's what this is here.

800
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 1: I actually wrote in the notes when I was sort

801
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 1: of going through the rundown, this game, to me is

802
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 1: not one that we can make a decision today, Like,

803
00:42:57,320 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 1: I just need more evidence. You just said the same thing. Yeah,

804
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 1: do it on Tuesday. I will say we haven't delivered

805
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 1: anything yet. Foxhole exec decision. Simon says, big balls.

806
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 2: Are we saving them? Where you? Because I thought we're

807
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 2: doing the end of the show. I can do them

808
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 2: now if you want to do them.

809
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 1: I think if we pass a game that we want

810
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 1: to name one of those bets, we should be doing it. Okay,

811
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:21,400
Speaker 1: I have a Simon says.

812
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 2: First one. We can make it. Simon says, I'll do

813
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 2: that Giants number. I do think it comes down to three,

814
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 2: So grab the three and a half if you.

815
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 1: Can do it, all right, I was going to say

816
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 1: the end.

817
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 2: Of the show, but yeah, I can do it.

818
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 1: Throughout I wanted to. I was wondering if we want

819
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,759
Speaker 1: to make Foxhole, make the Giants Foxhole? But let's make it.

820
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 1: Simon says, Okay, Well, That's fine because I don't think

821
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 1: any of these games we talked about, like Bucks two

822
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:52,359
Speaker 1: and a half, uh since then, Like that's the only

823
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 1: game we've really gone in on. Yeah, I don't think

824
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 1: we've missed anything, and I don't think we need to

825
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 1: make the Thanksgiving games, you know, the Foxholes and things

826
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 1: like that. Jacksonville at Houston, here we go. I mean,

827
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: there's so many ways to look at this game, right.

828
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 1: The Jags are of a value because they just brought

829
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 1: the Titans. The Texans are undervalued because CJ looked human

830
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:15,240
Speaker 1: against the Cardinals, and a lot of books are probably

831
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 1: still not even properly rating them. There's no real scenario

832
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:23,400
Speaker 1: as a divisional matchup. Houston's defense is top ten in

833
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 1: pressure percentage with a very low blitz percentage, which I

834
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 1: like defensively, but Trevor Lawrence has the quickest release in football,

835
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:38,359
Speaker 1: tied with two at one point nine seconds. You said

836
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 1: you like Houston, explain yourself.

837
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,240
Speaker 2: I like Houston for a bunch of reasons. The biggest

838
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 2: one it's a nice spot for them after such a

839
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 2: bad game and the fact they got away with that win.

840
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 2: I feel like you're playing a little bit of house

841
00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:52,959
Speaker 2: money here. People are mad at them, right, they didn't

842
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 2: get the cover. We talk all the time, what's CJ's

843
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 2: record as a dog? He's pretty damn good. Like I

844
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 2: feel like he's a covering the spread as an underdog.

845
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 2: You say five and one, yep, yeah, and he's zero

846
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:08,359
Speaker 2: and four is a favorite. Pretty talent trends to start

847
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,799
Speaker 2: this guy's career. It's like you want to back them

848
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 2: as a dog, especially as a home dog. I feel

849
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 2: like that's a good spot to take it. So you

850
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 2: want to make this our big balls or our foxhole.

851
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:19,320
Speaker 1: Let's put it in the foxhole.

852
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

853
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 3: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit.

854
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 2: To a city. I'm a foxhole guy.

855
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's put it in the foxhol This is going

856
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 1: to be the foxhile Houston is the foxhole.

857
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 2: And just looking at this matchup, I get the love

858
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 2: for the Jaguars, right, I mean, when it's when it's working,

859
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 2: their offense is really fun. Trevor Lawrence passing it looks amazing.

860
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,759
Speaker 2: I mean they're finally using Ridley, who's really good. Etn

861
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 2: is a great back. I mean he's really carried to

862
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 2: help carry that team when Trevor struggled this season. But

863
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 2: Houston defense is much better than Tennessee's defense, especially in

864
00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 2: the secondary. I mean the Titans, they got rid of

865
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 2: their best defender on the secondary to the Eagles, like

866
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 2: they traded him weeks ago, and you've kind of seen

867
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 2: that pop up. Their secondary is just bad Tennessee. So

868
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 2: any team can look really good against Tennessee secondary. That's

869
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 2: not shocking at all. We know that coming to the

870
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 2: year too. It's like Tennessee's run defense, when of the

871
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 2: best in the league, their pass defense terrible. Houston's pass

872
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:18,759
Speaker 2: defense is actually pretty good, Like they're surprisingly not as

873
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:21,319
Speaker 2: bad as people perceive. And you know, even in really

874
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 2: hard matchup, I mean against Joe Burrow, they had some

875
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 2: big plays and clutch moments against a really tough passing

876
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 2: and offense. And I just look at this number. They're

877
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 2: at home again. If you're scared because the number is

878
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:35,360
Speaker 2: so low, put them in a teaser then I mean,

879
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 2: you can get this up to seven and a half

880
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 2: right now, just on a six point teaser. That's a

881
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 2: great number for Houston at home in this position. So

882
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 2: I love divisional dogs. I'm really really hoping this one

883
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:48,719
Speaker 2: will keep going up. Like if we could get this

884
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 2: two two and a half in contest, the easiest one

885
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 2: of our five this week, but even at one and

886
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 2: a half down to point half, as long as they

887
00:46:57,040 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 2: stay a dog, Me and Chad will have Houston come

888
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 2: Sunday in our contest.

889
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like the Texans here too. That defense, to

890
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:09,399
Speaker 1: me is starting to get much better. Sean Kerner talked

891
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 1: about it on convinced me like Will Anderson he had

892
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 1: so many pressures and was playing so well without any sacks,

893
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 1: and you saw some of the stuff that he did

894
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 1: this past week, and he was getting closer and closer

895
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:27,960
Speaker 1: to the quarterback and really disrupting things. So against a

896
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:33,640
Speaker 1: mediocre offensive line without any pressure coming from the blitz,

897
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:37,759
Speaker 1: Will Anderson has a chance to make some noise in

898
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:41,399
Speaker 1: this game. So I like it on both sides where

899
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:47,720
Speaker 1: really we're agreed. Houston Texans fox home La Rams at Arizona.

900
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 1: This line is moving all the money coming into Arizona.

901
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 1: You know, I think people are realizing that Kyler Murray

902
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,600
Speaker 1: is back, that he's a great athlete. I think people

903
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 1: feel like the Rams probably got a little bit lucky

904
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 1: last week in the way they won the game and

905
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 1: covered those of us who Adam as dogs. Thank you

906
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 1: to Drew Locke. Not a strong opinion of this game though.

907
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:19,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I don't know if Evan has any

908
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 2: trends on this, but it does feel like Arizona usually

909
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:24,640
Speaker 2: plays the Rams really well. But maybe I have that wrong.

910
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:27,359
Speaker 2: I just remember there's something weird with this division where

911
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 2: it's like each team has their matchup and that's who

912
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 2: they play really well against. But you know, Arizona is

913
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 2: just a team that you talked about it last week.

914
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 2: I just kept saying, I just think people are undevaluating

915
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 2: or undervaluing what Kyler means to this team and how

916
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:47,759
Speaker 2: athletic he is and how good he is. And got

917
00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:51,839
Speaker 2: extremely lucky last week with this team, Like they came

918
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 2: out on fire, put up a bunch of points and

919
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 2: then just did nothing in the second half. And then

920
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:58,239
Speaker 2: lucky for them, Houston doing this anything in the second

921
00:48:58,280 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 2: half either, so they were able to cover that five

922
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:03,680
Speaker 2: and a half. You know, this number. To me, there

923
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:05,640
Speaker 2: shouldn't be they shouldn't be a dog like I do

924
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:09,960
Speaker 2: have it as them as a slight favorite. So okay,

925
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:12,799
Speaker 2: so I but the other way, the Rams own Arizona.

926
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 2: The Arizona is two and eleven ats versus the Rams

927
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:19,799
Speaker 2: since twenty seventeen, I knew there was something weird when

928
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:23,240
Speaker 2: one of these teams to own the other one. That's crazy.

929
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe I'll maybe I'll walk away from it,

930
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:29,280
Speaker 2: but I do. I do like Arizona in this spot.

931
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 2: But that is a very telling sign just McVeigh. He

932
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 2: knows how to play against this Arizona team clearly since

933
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 2: he's taken over the Rams. That's that's wild. Since twenty seventeen,

934
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 2: two and eleven ats the Rams are I mean, the

935
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 2: Arizona is against the Rams. So yeah, it making me

936
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 2: coward a little bit here. I already bet the Arizona

937
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 2: might have bet it too early here.

938
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, this game feels like we need to get more information,

939
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:59,280
Speaker 1: like I would let the market dictate ultimately what I decided.

940
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:02,800
Speaker 1: Do you hear? Because this one feels a little bit trippy,

941
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 1: like both teams are sort of mired in meek mediocrity

942
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:12,319
Speaker 1: and two worse if you're the Cardinals, except they feel

943
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 1: a little ascendant and the Rams feel like they're plateauing,

944
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:18,759
Speaker 1: and the Rooms plateau was just so much higher than

945
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:19,880
Speaker 1: the Cardinals, right, Now.

946
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I need as someone that heavily bet the Rams

947
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:26,759
Speaker 2: win total over this. This would go a long way

948
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 2: for me if the Rams did win this game. But yeah,

949
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:32,720
Speaker 2: my model says there's value in Arizona, but the trends

950
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:35,400
Speaker 2: clearly show the Rams are probably the better bet.

951
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 1: All Right, the next game up, we're talking about Denver

952
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:43,319
Speaker 1: and Cleveland. And you mentioned this in the in the

953
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:46,279
Speaker 1: sharp call segment. Now, Cleveland is a two and a

954
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 1: half point underdog. We know this is a luck under game.

955
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:54,680
Speaker 1: I kind of feel like the books are trying to

956
00:50:54,880 --> 00:51:01,879
Speaker 1: trap us here in that this is a a pros

957
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 1: Joe's game a little bit. But also like somehow the

958
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,400
Speaker 1: Broncos are early two games out of first in the

959
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:13,359
Speaker 1: AFC West and they are in the playoff race. How

960
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 1: does this make sense?

961
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:20,960
Speaker 2: In Cleveland was a rookie quarterback, it's gonna be just

962
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:24,279
Speaker 2: because of the turnover look like the I think they

963
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 2: had ten turnovers in the last three games or something

964
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:29,799
Speaker 2: like that. This Denver team, which is just stupid, Like

965
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:33,879
Speaker 2: that's just it's impossible to keep. And I would say

966
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 2: anyone that took Denver last week feels like they got

967
00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 2: robbed just because they kicked five field goals. Like in

968
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 2: a game where your defense is getting all these turnovers

969
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 2: and you're just kicking field goals, It's like, what is

970
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 2: happening here? Now? That was a brutal, bad beat. And

971
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:50,399
Speaker 2: that's why I originally I wanted to be on Denver

972
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:51,960
Speaker 2: here because it's just like I feels like I'm getting

973
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:54,959
Speaker 2: value on them just because they didn't cover last week

974
00:51:55,000 --> 00:52:00,320
Speaker 2: and they did struggle offensively. But I took a step

975
00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 2: back and I listened to the guys and then them

976
00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:03,960
Speaker 2: give me the reasons why I should be on Cleveland.

977
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 2: It does. It does make sense to sound right where

978
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:09,719
Speaker 2: it's like, you have what's the best unit on the

979
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 2: field in this game between these two teams, it's by

980
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:15,800
Speaker 2: far the Cleveland defense. And a strength of the Cleveland

981
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:17,439
Speaker 2: team is running the ball. What do we see last

982
00:52:17,480 --> 00:52:21,000
Speaker 2: week with Denver's team? They still cannot Yeah, and they

983
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:24,600
Speaker 2: can't make tackles, like the first guy can't make the tackle.

984
00:52:24,640 --> 00:52:26,440
Speaker 2: They always need the second or third guy to bring

985
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:30,680
Speaker 2: the running back down. So, man, I hated this one

986
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:32,759
Speaker 2: because I wanted to fade Cleveland's so bad. I mean,

987
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 2: it's a rookie on the road. You can get Denver

988
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:37,640
Speaker 2: under a field goal. It feels like a really good number.

989
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:40,279
Speaker 2: But yeah, I gotta I gotta listen to my brother

990
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:42,359
Speaker 2: and the pros like they got this one lined up

991
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 2: and I'm with them, like if if, if they end

992
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:47,600
Speaker 2: up as one of our five, I wouldn't be shocked,

993
00:52:47,600 --> 00:52:50,880
Speaker 2: just because this is a good matchup for Cleveland's defense,

994
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:53,719
Speaker 2: especially going against a Denver team that is so reliant

995
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 2: now on turnovers. Without the turnovers, they wouldn't be winning

996
00:52:57,239 --> 00:52:59,400
Speaker 2: and covering these these games the last couple weeks, right,

997
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:04,480
Speaker 2: that's really changed the season around for that team. So yeah,

998
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:07,680
Speaker 2: Chad one of those dogs where it's like I didn't

999
00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 2: see it. I needed others to tell me what I'm seeing,

1000
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:11,359
Speaker 2: And now when they broke it down and it made

1001
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:13,240
Speaker 2: sense where it's like you know, you're right, Like Cleveland

1002
00:53:13,280 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 2: is probably the good good spot to take here. They're

1003
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:19,000
Speaker 2: the better team. They're playing in a hard division. That's

1004
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 2: why I like, you throw the records out and you're

1005
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:23,279
Speaker 2: just looking at these two teams just blank on a

1006
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 2: piece of paper, and it's just like, you know what

1007
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:27,880
Speaker 2: I get that Denver has been playing well, it's just

1008
00:53:27,960 --> 00:53:30,239
Speaker 2: it just still feels like the best shootit on the

1009
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 2: field by far that that Cleveland defense.

1010
00:53:33,280 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 1: Look, the best player on the field might be Miles Garrett.

1011
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, no doubt.

1012
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:42,880
Speaker 1: They that defensive line especially. We talked about this with

1013
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:47,080
Speaker 1: the Ravens. It's a playmaking defensive line. It's not a

1014
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 1: defensive line that is just stopping people. It is a

1015
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:52,960
Speaker 1: defense that is putting their team in a position to

1016
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 1: win week after week after week, no matter who is

1017
00:53:56,840 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 1: playing quarterback, no matter how good the other team is.

1018
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:04,640
Speaker 1: The entire unit realizes a little bit like the Steelers,

1019
00:54:04,640 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 1: like they have to step up and make plays, and

1020
00:54:06,680 --> 00:54:08,840
Speaker 1: they've got the athletes to do it, and with Jim Schwartz,

1021
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:11,680
Speaker 1: they've got the scheme to do it. So yeah, I

1022
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 1: get it. To me, this feels like it needs to

1023
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 1: be our big balls better the week because we're betting

1024
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:21,920
Speaker 1: a quarterback and his second start, a rookie quarterback going

1025
00:54:21,960 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 1: a mile high on the road as a short dog. Like,

1026
00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:30,000
Speaker 1: there's no reason against a team in the Broncos that

1027
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:32,640
Speaker 1: has I think won four in a row. Now they

1028
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:35,359
Speaker 1: part of the season one in five and they won

1029
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:39,880
Speaker 1: in prime time. Like this is a big balls play.

1030
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:43,919
Speaker 2: To me, Big balls better the week, Big balls Better

1031
00:54:44,000 --> 00:54:44,440
Speaker 2: the week.

1032
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns plus two and a half. One more stat.

1033
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:53,880
Speaker 1: I want to get you bought in on big balls

1034
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:57,200
Speaker 1: before I gave you another stat to make you feel

1035
00:54:57,200 --> 00:55:00,200
Speaker 1: even better about why we're doing it. I mentioned this

1036
00:55:00,280 --> 00:55:05,400
Speaker 1: earlier bet. The dogs are low total games NFL underdogs

1037
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 1: with games and games with the total of below forty two,

1038
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:13,120
Speaker 1: sixty percent against the spread since twenty eighteen and sixty

1039
00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:17,959
Speaker 1: percent ish this year. This game is totaled at about

1040
00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:21,239
Speaker 1: thirty five thirty five and a half right now. And

1041
00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:23,920
Speaker 1: it's also a luck under. You know the luck rankings,

1042
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:26,359
Speaker 1: which we're going to talk about. We got a luck

1043
00:55:26,440 --> 00:55:31,839
Speaker 1: matchup this week, a big luck matchup luck totals which

1044
00:55:31,840 --> 00:55:35,400
Speaker 1: are performing very well. This is a luck under bet.

1045
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:40,000
Speaker 1: The Browns bet the under Kansas City at Las Vegas.

1046
00:55:40,120 --> 00:55:43,479
Speaker 1: Las Vegas currently nine and a half. We talked about

1047
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:46,120
Speaker 1: this on the Sunday Show. I am going to make

1048
00:55:46,320 --> 00:55:49,360
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders my exact decision.

1049
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:55,359
Speaker 2: Wow, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are

1050
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 2: you av your honor's texting your number? Executive decision?

1051
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:02,800
Speaker 1: I think I'm flying high on exec decisions lately.

1052
00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 2: I do like it. The way here is that this

1053
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:10,600
Speaker 2: probably should be ten and it's come down a lot.

1054
00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:15,080
Speaker 2: Maybe the Chiefs are bad or they aren't as good

1055
00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:18,160
Speaker 2: and they shouldn't be this big of a favorite. But man,

1056
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:21,400
Speaker 2: that that's that's that's a lot of movement for a

1057
00:56:21,480 --> 00:56:24,360
Speaker 2: Vegas team that got really lucky to cover last week

1058
00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:27,279
Speaker 2: and a Chiefs team that got really unlucky not to

1059
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:29,200
Speaker 2: cover this past week. I mean, they had a Kelsey

1060
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:31,560
Speaker 2: fumble in the red zone, then they had a drop

1061
00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:34,160
Speaker 2: touchdown at the end of the game. This number would

1062
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:37,759
Speaker 2: be what at ten ten and a half if the

1063
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 2: Chiefs had covered.

1064
00:56:38,760 --> 00:56:40,799
Speaker 1: So they'll might get there go back.

1065
00:56:41,120 --> 00:56:44,160
Speaker 2: I don't think it will though, just because the public

1066
00:56:44,280 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 2: is going to be on Vegas, Like every one of

1067
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:49,760
Speaker 2: their grandma for the most part, was on the Chiefs

1068
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:52,279
Speaker 2: last night. I mean everyone, like anyone I talked to

1069
00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:55,680
Speaker 2: was just like, yeah, it's it's mahomes like under under

1070
00:56:55,760 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 2: three points. Like I know a lot of guys I

1071
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:00,279
Speaker 2: liked the two and a half. They took the money

1072
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:04,040
Speaker 2: line on the Chiefs and they're pissed. They're all pissed off.

1073
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:05,759
Speaker 2: So I wouldn't be shocked to see this be a

1074
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:09,359
Speaker 2: big public dog this week in Vegas. Jet. So yeah,

1075
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:10,720
Speaker 2: I'm not trying to talk to you off your bet.

1076
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 2: Just just just be just be careful here with this one,

1077
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 2: just because I think the public and everyone else is

1078
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:18,439
Speaker 2: just off this Chiefs team at this point.

1079
00:57:18,480 --> 00:57:21,760
Speaker 1: Now, Oh look, the Chiefs, like you pointed out, I

1080
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:24,400
Speaker 1: think five straight games without a touchdown in the second half.

1081
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:27,120
Speaker 2: I think I think they have one game right with

1082
00:57:27,200 --> 00:57:28,080
Speaker 2: a touchdown the second half.

1083
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 1: That's the game.

1084
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:29,520
Speaker 2: But crazy.

1085
00:57:29,800 --> 00:57:31,920
Speaker 1: I think there's a couple of things colliding here. I

1086
00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:36,440
Speaker 1: think one strategically and philosophically. Andy Reid sort of pulls

1087
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:38,120
Speaker 1: back the rains a little bit in the second half

1088
00:57:38,120 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 1: because his teams are usually up and he's playing the clock,

1089
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:44,280
Speaker 1: Like he starts thinking about the end of that game

1090
00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:46,440
Speaker 1: as soon as they get into the second half. And

1091
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:49,520
Speaker 1: number one, number two they don't have who can make

1092
00:57:49,520 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 1: plays downfield.

1093
00:57:50,880 --> 00:57:53,120
Speaker 2: Did you see this staff from Evan? What do you

1094
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:56,680
Speaker 2: say Vegas is getting eighty percent of the tickets now

1095
00:57:56,960 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 2: percent of the money?

1096
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:02,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can't count anything on Tuesday. Oh shit though,

1097
00:58:03,240 --> 00:58:06,000
Speaker 1: Oh well, the scariest thing you said to me is

1098
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:09,400
Speaker 1: public dog. When you say public dog, it makes me

1099
00:58:09,440 --> 00:58:11,840
Speaker 1: so upset because I hate being on the side of

1100
00:58:11,840 --> 00:58:12,520
Speaker 1: the public dog.

1101
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:14,560
Speaker 2: But like you said it is. Evan just said it

1102
00:58:14,600 --> 00:58:17,560
Speaker 2: to it. It's it is crazy early. Yeah, but it

1103
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:19,880
Speaker 2: just that's what my original read was going to be.

1104
00:58:19,920 --> 00:58:22,520
Speaker 2: It's just like I feel like no one's gonna be

1105
00:58:22,560 --> 00:58:24,000
Speaker 2: the Chiefs right now. They're just going to be getting

1106
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 2: bad mouths smacked around. And it reminds me a lot

1107
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 2: of that Bills spot this past week of the Bills

1108
00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:31,480
Speaker 2: were kind of left for dead right against the Jets.

1109
00:58:31,840 --> 00:58:33,640
Speaker 2: Then you saw the Pros come in. That number got

1110
00:58:33,680 --> 00:58:34,800
Speaker 2: at the eight and a half and a lot of

1111
00:58:34,800 --> 00:58:38,959
Speaker 2: books right before I kickoff on the Bills team. So yeah,

1112
00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 2: this just it just this is and it might be

1113
00:58:42,240 --> 00:58:44,400
Speaker 2: a good spot for this Chiefs team. Chat. So I'm

1114
00:58:44,440 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 2: just I have no money bet on this yet. On

1115
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:48,440
Speaker 2: Sunday night we talked about it. I was with you

1116
00:58:48,480 --> 00:58:50,840
Speaker 2: then on Vegas and now I'm just a little hesitant

1117
00:58:51,000 --> 00:58:54,240
Speaker 2: just because the value might start shifting towards this Chiefs team.

1118
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:55,520
Speaker 2: This number keeps coming.

1119
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 1: Down, well hey, it keeps coming down. It could be

1120
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 1: a time for a little you know, action for Milman.

1121
00:59:05,560 --> 00:59:08,400
Speaker 2: Middleman Patrick Mahomes.

1122
00:59:08,040 --> 00:59:10,400
Speaker 1: More than a field goal favorite thirty five and forty

1123
00:59:10,640 --> 00:59:14,680
Speaker 1: against the spread, more than a touchdown favorite, eighteen twenty two.

1124
00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:16,959
Speaker 2: Geeesh agree.

1125
00:59:17,000 --> 00:59:19,680
Speaker 1: Look, we defied the odds last week and bet him

1126
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:22,320
Speaker 1: is bet against him as less than fieldal favorite when

1127
00:59:22,360 --> 00:59:24,880
Speaker 1: he crushes, So you know it's true. All right, you

1128
00:59:24,920 --> 00:59:26,280
Speaker 1: mentioned this game with the top Buffalo.

1129
00:59:26,440 --> 00:59:28,120
Speaker 2: I got back one tenth of all that money I

1130
00:59:28,160 --> 00:59:29,360
Speaker 2: lost in the Super Bowl. How great.

1131
00:59:29,840 --> 00:59:33,000
Speaker 1: It's nice. Before the season began, Philadelphia right now is

1132
00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:35,840
Speaker 1: a three and a half point favorite. Before the season began,

1133
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:38,720
Speaker 1: this was the second lowest odds for a Super Bowl

1134
00:59:38,720 --> 00:59:40,880
Speaker 1: matchup at twenty to one, behind the Chiefs and the Eagles.

1135
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:43,520
Speaker 1: Now mc dermott's on the hot seat. The Bills have

1136
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:46,520
Speaker 1: fired their offensive coordinator. They celebrate beating the Jets like

1137
00:59:46,560 --> 00:59:50,160
Speaker 1: as the playoffs. The Eagles just avenge their Super Bowl

1138
00:59:50,160 --> 00:59:55,160
Speaker 1: in a dramatic defensive battle. The Eagles defense is fierce. Yeah,

1139
00:59:56,000 --> 00:59:58,080
Speaker 1: it feels like I know you said you like the

1140
00:59:58,080 --> 01:00:00,840
Speaker 1: Eagles because the wise guys are on the Bills.

1141
01:00:00,880 --> 01:00:02,840
Speaker 2: The wise guy like the Bills for me.

1142
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:05,800
Speaker 1: The hook says we should be on the Bills. And

1143
01:00:05,840 --> 01:00:08,880
Speaker 1: in fact, after I wrote all these notes, I don't

1144
01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:10,440
Speaker 1: know if you saw this, we got a note in

1145
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 1: our slack channel for luck rankings. I've not massive, massive

1146
01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:21,320
Speaker 1: advantage for the Bills in the luck rankings.

1147
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:27,400
Speaker 2: I don't care. I don't care. Oh god, No, it's

1148
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:29,920
Speaker 2: just what is this number? Is this the Bills? Is

1149
01:00:29,960 --> 01:00:34,320
Speaker 2: this twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two Bills? No, And

1150
01:00:34,360 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 2: that's this number would make sense if that's what those

1151
01:00:36,600 --> 01:00:39,640
Speaker 2: teams were. And that's why we don't like that chief number.

1152
01:00:39,640 --> 01:00:41,720
Speaker 2: I felt like that was a chief number from last year,

1153
01:00:41,840 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 2: not this year. And it feels the same with the

1154
01:00:43,600 --> 01:00:45,400
Speaker 2: Bills in this number against the Eagles, where it's like

1155
01:00:46,560 --> 01:00:50,800
Speaker 2: the Eagles can play bad, they can struggle, they can

1156
01:00:50,840 --> 01:00:53,680
Speaker 2: get down double digits and you never really lose faith

1157
01:00:53,720 --> 01:00:56,000
Speaker 2: in that team. That's just how good that this Egles

1158
01:00:56,000 --> 01:00:58,960
Speaker 2: team this year is. The Bills have none of that.

1159
01:00:59,160 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 2: Like the Bills. If I need a touchdown from Josh Allen,

1160
01:01:02,400 --> 01:01:04,240
Speaker 2: I don't have faith in Josh Allen right now. I

1161
01:01:04,320 --> 01:01:06,280
Speaker 2: faith they he'll throw a pick because he's trying to

1162
01:01:06,280 --> 01:01:09,080
Speaker 2: force it in and do too much. The Bills need

1163
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 2: to get a stop. They cannot get a stop. They

1164
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:13,640
Speaker 2: do not have the guys on defense to get the stop.

1165
01:01:13,760 --> 01:01:17,760
Speaker 2: So yeah, not shocking the pros like and not shocking.

1166
01:01:17,760 --> 01:01:20,439
Speaker 2: The money's coming on the Bills. I mean, it's nice

1167
01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:22,480
Speaker 2: to get three and a half. I think people are

1168
01:01:22,560 --> 01:01:24,000
Speaker 2: happy to get three and a half in the Bills

1169
01:01:24,000 --> 01:01:26,800
Speaker 2: because they think it's all good because they just won

1170
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:29,960
Speaker 2: a game. Like after firing their OC against the Jets.

1171
01:01:30,120 --> 01:01:33,840
Speaker 2: It's like, man, I don't know about backing them in

1172
01:01:33,880 --> 01:01:37,520
Speaker 2: this spot here, so here we go, thank you. Having

1173
01:01:37,600 --> 01:01:39,440
Speaker 2: Eagles are three to zero straight up in games when

1174
01:01:39,440 --> 01:01:42,520
Speaker 2: trailing by ten points or more at any point, and

1175
01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:44,720
Speaker 2: five and two straight up since it started last year

1176
01:01:44,760 --> 01:01:47,560
Speaker 2: when they're down by ten or more points. Every other

1177
01:01:47,680 --> 01:01:52,080
Speaker 2: team in all of football the entire NFL is sixty seven,

1178
01:01:52,200 --> 01:01:54,360
Speaker 2: two hundred and ninety nine and two straight up, so

1179
01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:57,360
Speaker 2: eighteen point three percent in that spot the last two seasons.

1180
01:01:57,360 --> 01:02:01,080
Speaker 2: So it's an Eagles team that they're just really good,

1181
01:02:01,320 --> 01:02:03,840
Speaker 2: Like people have such high expectations for them that they

1182
01:02:03,840 --> 01:02:07,120
Speaker 2: don't play perfect and they look sloppy. Doubt creeps in,

1183
01:02:07,160 --> 01:02:09,600
Speaker 2: they go something's wrong about this team. I mean every week,

1184
01:02:09,680 --> 01:02:12,200
Speaker 2: I think since Week one, we've heard something's not right

1185
01:02:12,240 --> 01:02:16,280
Speaker 2: about this Eagles team. And here they are ten to one,

1186
01:02:16,600 --> 01:02:19,280
Speaker 2: nine o one whatever they're at now. It's just it's

1187
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:21,640
Speaker 2: crazy how good and dominant they've been this season, So

1188
01:02:22,520 --> 01:02:24,200
Speaker 2: I get why the pros are coming on the Bills.

1189
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:26,160
Speaker 2: They think it's a good number. Again, Josh Allen is

1190
01:02:26,200 --> 01:02:29,960
Speaker 2: a dog, they like the spot. Historically, the Eagles defense

1191
01:02:30,000 --> 01:02:33,360
Speaker 2: has struggled with running quarterbacks. I just don't think this

1192
01:02:33,400 --> 01:02:36,880
Speaker 2: Bills team deserves this kind of respect. Like my model

1193
01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:40,200
Speaker 2: makes this five, I personally could see this being six.

1194
01:02:40,920 --> 01:02:43,040
Speaker 2: So right now my model has this off by one

1195
01:02:43,040 --> 01:02:44,640
Speaker 2: and a half. I like the value there, and then

1196
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:48,600
Speaker 2: me personally, I think it's off by even more. So Yeah,

1197
01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:50,640
Speaker 2: I can't get there the Bills chat. I'm sorry, brother,

1198
01:02:50,680 --> 01:02:52,600
Speaker 2: I just I like the Eagles of this number, especially

1199
01:02:52,640 --> 01:02:55,600
Speaker 2: the fact that it's early again early in the week.

1200
01:02:55,680 --> 01:02:57,800
Speaker 2: But I'm looking at the books right now in the

1201
01:02:57,840 --> 01:03:01,400
Speaker 2: Action app eighty five percent the handle right now is

1202
01:03:01,440 --> 01:03:04,560
Speaker 2: on the Bills, so early money is slam in that

1203
01:03:04,640 --> 01:03:05,280
Speaker 2: three and a half.

1204
01:03:08,440 --> 01:03:10,480
Speaker 1: What got me was when you just said your model.

1205
01:03:11,240 --> 01:03:13,400
Speaker 1: I listen, We've said the same thing about the Eagles

1206
01:03:13,440 --> 01:03:17,240
Speaker 1: all season. They're just a good team. They don't seem

1207
01:03:17,280 --> 01:03:20,480
Speaker 1: to ever be afraid when they're losing. They seem completely confident.

1208
01:03:20,520 --> 01:03:23,360
Speaker 1: They make the right decisions in the right spots. They

1209
01:03:23,440 --> 01:03:26,680
Speaker 1: are you know what they are They're a group of

1210
01:03:26,720 --> 01:03:31,320
Speaker 1: professionals playing professional football, and like, I know that sounds silly,

1211
01:03:31,360 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 1: there is a nuanced distinction between that and say, how

1212
01:03:34,600 --> 01:03:37,560
Speaker 1: other teams go up and down emotionally. These guys are

1213
01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:41,720
Speaker 1: about their business and they get their job done even

1214
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:46,440
Speaker 1: under the most, even when the circumstances aren't perfect for them.

1215
01:03:46,840 --> 01:03:48,720
Speaker 1: So I can see why you're saying it. I can

1216
01:03:48,760 --> 01:03:51,440
Speaker 1: see what you would say about the number. I've got

1217
01:03:51,480 --> 01:03:54,680
Speaker 1: a lot of conflicting emotions right now. I'm sure we

1218
01:03:54,720 --> 01:03:56,960
Speaker 1: will have deeper conversations when it's time to make a pick.

1219
01:03:57,000 --> 01:03:59,080
Speaker 1: We'll see how the number moves. You're gonna be on

1220
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:01,240
Speaker 1: the Eagles bit the Bills. I don't know that we'll

1221
01:04:01,240 --> 01:04:03,720
Speaker 1: be able to put this in a contest, especially depending

1222
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:04,880
Speaker 1: on where the number lands.

1223
01:04:05,560 --> 01:04:07,440
Speaker 2: I don't buy out, maybe I'll get you there chat.

1224
01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:09,840
Speaker 2: It's or in the week. I mean, right, who doesn't

1225
01:04:09,840 --> 01:04:11,640
Speaker 2: make a bet on Monday or Tuesday and buy out

1226
01:04:11,640 --> 01:04:12,200
Speaker 2: their position.

1227
01:04:12,400 --> 01:04:14,680
Speaker 1: It's just a ready everyone buys out. It's the most

1228
01:04:15,240 --> 01:04:16,320
Speaker 1: in the world, simon.

1229
01:04:16,800 --> 01:04:19,880
Speaker 2: But I was just gonna say one thing I did,

1230
01:04:19,960 --> 01:04:21,760
Speaker 2: like Peyton Manning on the Manning Cast said about the

1231
01:04:21,760 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 2: Eagles team, which is very true. Is that these Super

1232
01:04:24,800 --> 01:04:27,800
Speaker 2: Bowl teams, the best teams are complete teams, right. They

1233
01:04:27,920 --> 01:04:29,960
Speaker 2: have a good special teams, they have a good defense,

1234
01:04:30,000 --> 01:04:32,960
Speaker 2: and they have a good offense. And when one group lags,

1235
01:04:33,040 --> 01:04:35,280
Speaker 2: you need the other group to pick up what's lagging.

1236
01:04:35,440 --> 01:04:40,000
Speaker 2: And last night the defense was lagging, right, they couldn't

1237
01:04:40,000 --> 01:04:42,439
Speaker 2: stop the run the first half, and the second half

1238
01:04:42,440 --> 01:04:44,960
Speaker 2: they picked it up. The offense was lagging, couldn't couldn't

1239
01:04:44,960 --> 01:04:46,720
Speaker 2: score it, go and move the ball picked up in

1240
01:04:46,720 --> 01:04:48,920
Speaker 2: the second half, and then special teams. You know, the

1241
01:04:48,960 --> 01:04:51,280
Speaker 2: punter basically won the game for the Eagles, Like he

1242
01:04:51,320 --> 01:04:53,560
Speaker 2: made some huge punts in the rain that really pined

1243
01:04:53,560 --> 01:04:56,400
Speaker 2: the team back. So you know, when guys like Peyton

1244
01:04:56,400 --> 01:04:58,280
Speaker 2: Manning talk about that stuff, it really sinks in where

1245
01:04:58,280 --> 01:05:01,440
Speaker 2: it's like it's true, it doesn't matter if you have

1246
01:05:01,640 --> 01:05:03,760
Speaker 2: the best offense in all of football, if you have

1247
01:05:03,800 --> 01:05:06,760
Speaker 2: a shit defense and shit special teams like football, you

1248
01:05:06,840 --> 01:05:08,960
Speaker 2: really do need to be good all three fasts of

1249
01:05:09,000 --> 01:05:11,800
Speaker 2: the game. And again, the Eagles right now playing at

1250
01:05:11,800 --> 01:05:14,520
Speaker 2: a high level all three ways. The Bills, the only

1251
01:05:14,560 --> 01:05:17,080
Speaker 2: thing you could turn to is their offense, and an

1252
01:05:17,120 --> 01:05:19,760
Speaker 2: offense that you can make one dimensional. So I get

1253
01:05:19,760 --> 01:05:21,480
Speaker 2: the love for the Bills chat. I'm just telling you,

1254
01:05:21,520 --> 01:05:23,840
Speaker 2: don't bet this line like it's twenty twenty two. Bet

1255
01:05:23,840 --> 01:05:26,600
Speaker 2: it like it's twenty twenty three. This ain't your dad's bills.

1256
01:05:26,920 --> 01:05:29,520
Speaker 2: This is this is a bad Bills team.

1257
01:05:29,600 --> 01:05:32,960
Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving, Matt Mitchell Simon. Can you name the fastest

1258
01:05:32,960 --> 01:05:35,480
Speaker 1: growing ticketing up in the United States?

1259
01:05:35,960 --> 01:05:36,800
Speaker 2: Game Time?

1260
01:05:37,160 --> 01:05:39,480
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game

1261
01:05:39,480 --> 01:05:42,000
Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One, they sponsor this show too.

1262
01:05:42,160 --> 01:05:45,280
Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got

1263
01:05:45,320 --> 01:05:48,160
Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals and all sorts of tickets, including

1264
01:05:48,640 --> 01:05:52,240
Speaker 1: pro and college games. Speaking of which, I'm opening Game

1265
01:05:52,280 --> 01:05:56,000
Speaker 1: Time right now from my house here in Connecticut. You

1266
01:05:56,040 --> 01:05:58,760
Speaker 1: know what I see? I see the New York Jets

1267
01:05:58,840 --> 01:06:02,880
Speaker 1: playing on Friday, Black Friday. Go check out the malls

1268
01:06:02,880 --> 01:06:04,680
Speaker 1: in Jersey, and why not go to the game for

1269
01:06:04,760 --> 01:06:07,439
Speaker 1: less than one hundred and forty dollars. By the way,

1270
01:06:07,800 --> 01:06:12,400
Speaker 1: Also great college basketball happening the NIT tip Off and Barclays.

1271
01:06:12,440 --> 01:06:15,400
Speaker 1: You can get into that for twenty bucks this week.

1272
01:06:15,480 --> 01:06:17,760
Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time map,

1273
01:06:17,760 --> 01:06:19,680
Speaker 1: get out and have some fun this week. Go sweat

1274
01:06:19,720 --> 01:06:22,680
Speaker 1: your bets live and in person, and you can redeem

1275
01:06:22,680 --> 01:06:24,960
Speaker 1: code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase in

1276
01:06:25,040 --> 01:06:26,680
Speaker 1: terms of flying game, just download the app and in

1277
01:06:26,720 --> 01:06:29,600
Speaker 1: her Coode favorites twenty dollars off last minute tickets West

1278
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:34,120
Speaker 1: Price guaranteed. All Right. Two more games Baltimore at Los

1279
01:06:34,160 --> 01:06:39,400
Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers. This one's at four four and a half

1280
01:06:39,400 --> 01:06:41,760
Speaker 1: on Sunday night. We talked about it that you probably

1281
01:06:41,800 --> 01:06:43,200
Speaker 1: had to take the Chargers at four and a half.

1282
01:06:43,280 --> 01:06:46,480
Speaker 1: I didn't make a play on this game. It's a

1283
01:06:46,480 --> 01:06:51,880
Speaker 1: weird spot because the philosophy dictates take the Chargers. It's

1284
01:06:51,960 --> 01:06:58,240
Speaker 1: just a mismatch at every level. But John Harbaugh Lamar

1285
01:06:58,360 --> 01:07:03,640
Speaker 1: Jackson not very good as favorites. Lamar thirty nine, twenty nine,

1286
01:07:03,720 --> 01:07:07,080
Speaker 1: thirty four as a favorite, Harborught eighty seven, ninety and

1287
01:07:07,120 --> 01:07:12,680
Speaker 1: five as a favorite. So we're talking about a.

1288
01:07:12,640 --> 01:07:15,200
Speaker 2: Lamar's thirty nine and twenty four as a favorite, twenty

1289
01:07:15,280 --> 01:07:17,680
Speaker 2: nine and thirty four. Okay, okay, As we would say,

1290
01:07:17,680 --> 01:07:18,840
Speaker 2: what do you mean, it's not very good?

1291
01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:23,000
Speaker 1: You know, not very good. So you know, I think

1292
01:07:23,040 --> 01:07:26,280
Speaker 1: that the spot is the Chargers. Yeah, but it's it's

1293
01:07:26,320 --> 01:07:27,840
Speaker 1: a it's hard to pull the trigger on that one

1294
01:07:27,880 --> 01:07:29,200
Speaker 1: because I think this team is creating.

1295
01:07:31,000 --> 01:07:32,160
Speaker 2: I know, and I had to pro say to me,

1296
01:07:32,240 --> 01:07:35,200
Speaker 2: this is why you should take the Chargers like this horse, Yeah,

1297
01:07:35,440 --> 01:07:36,960
Speaker 2: I said him. I just it's hard for me to

1298
01:07:36,960 --> 01:07:39,840
Speaker 2: get there. Like you're just saying, so another game where

1299
01:07:40,000 --> 01:07:42,360
Speaker 2: comes Sunday. This might be in me and Chad's five,

1300
01:07:42,520 --> 01:07:44,520
Speaker 2: just because we should be betting this one. It reminds

1301
01:07:44,520 --> 01:07:47,760
Speaker 2: me a lot of Green Bay against the Chargers. Green

1302
01:07:47,760 --> 01:07:49,920
Speaker 2: Bay was three and a half in our contest. YEP

1303
01:07:50,360 --> 01:07:52,760
Speaker 2: should have got there. We knew that was a good number,

1304
01:07:52,800 --> 01:07:54,840
Speaker 2: and I just I just didn't have the balls to

1305
01:07:54,880 --> 01:07:57,760
Speaker 2: pull pull the trigger on it. And it's just something

1306
01:07:57,840 --> 01:07:59,640
Speaker 2: I'm definitely gonna live with a regret the rest of

1307
01:07:59,680 --> 01:08:04,160
Speaker 2: my life. Chad. But no, this this Chargers game, It's

1308
01:08:04,240 --> 01:08:07,320
Speaker 2: like Chad's so right, we should be on the Chargers here.

1309
01:08:07,360 --> 01:08:09,960
Speaker 2: We play this number on the Chargers. This is when

1310
01:08:09,960 --> 01:08:12,120
Speaker 2: you want to back the Chargers, not when their favorites,

1311
01:08:12,200 --> 01:08:14,919
Speaker 2: but when they're over a three point dog. Usually that's

1312
01:08:14,960 --> 01:08:17,679
Speaker 2: really good to us because Herbert just plays these close,

1313
01:08:17,920 --> 01:08:24,559
Speaker 2: ugly games. So yeah, Chad, like a game this might

1314
01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:26,080
Speaker 2: be one of our five. Like the more we're talking

1315
01:08:26,080 --> 01:08:28,080
Speaker 2: about thinking about I get I agree with Chad, I

1316
01:08:28,120 --> 01:08:29,719
Speaker 2: didn't bet the Sunday Night. I don't have a penny

1317
01:08:29,720 --> 01:08:32,640
Speaker 2: on this game. I wish I did. Now it's just

1318
01:08:33,280 --> 01:08:35,120
Speaker 2: a nice number in a nice spot to back the

1319
01:08:35,240 --> 01:08:39,720
Speaker 2: Chargers team. So uh yeah, the hope is I'm gonna

1320
01:08:39,720 --> 01:08:41,360
Speaker 2: grab this three and a half. Now grab the four

1321
01:08:41,360 --> 01:08:43,080
Speaker 2: when we get off this call, and then by kickoff

1322
01:08:43,120 --> 01:08:44,920
Speaker 2: it's down to three. And I feel good because I

1323
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:48,400
Speaker 2: got closing line value. But yeah, this this game, this

1324
01:08:48,439 --> 01:08:49,760
Speaker 2: game turns your stomach, doesn't it.

1325
01:08:49,840 --> 01:08:55,280
Speaker 1: Chad totally makes me sick. But that's betting. That's what

1326
01:08:55,320 --> 01:08:58,720
Speaker 1: we do. The Chicago Bears visiting the Minnesota Vikings and

1327
01:08:58,760 --> 01:09:03,080
Speaker 1: Monday Night football guy look trend wise, slight edge to

1328
01:09:03,160 --> 01:09:05,360
Speaker 1: the road favorite right in the division, I mean to

1329
01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:11,080
Speaker 1: the to the road team in the division. So the

1330
01:09:11,120 --> 01:09:13,759
Speaker 1: Bears needed four turnovers to stay in that game against

1331
01:09:14,120 --> 01:09:18,240
Speaker 1: It's still barely covered, so to me is one now

1332
01:09:18,400 --> 01:09:20,320
Speaker 1: six in a row. No, they won five in a row.

1333
01:09:20,320 --> 01:09:21,280
Speaker 1: They lost last week.

1334
01:09:21,600 --> 01:09:25,840
Speaker 2: It covered or whatever, right, it did cover, but we were.

1335
01:09:25,720 --> 01:09:28,400
Speaker 1: Off of that Minnesota team. They just happened to play

1336
01:09:28,840 --> 01:09:31,040
Speaker 1: a team in Denver that couldn't stop the run for

1337
01:09:31,080 --> 01:09:34,559
Speaker 1: a day. So it was really challenging to try to

1338
01:09:34,560 --> 01:09:38,320
Speaker 1: handicap this game. Don't feel strongly about it right now.

1339
01:09:39,400 --> 01:09:41,640
Speaker 2: See I was shocked. I thought the Vikings would be

1340
01:09:41,720 --> 01:09:44,760
Speaker 2: the luckiest team in the luck rankings. Like you have

1341
01:09:44,840 --> 01:09:48,960
Speaker 2: Josh Dobbs throwing one, jumping up in the air, throw

1342
01:09:48,960 --> 01:09:54,120
Speaker 2: off his back foot, get a perfect throw. It doesn't

1343
01:09:54,160 --> 01:09:59,680
Speaker 2: make sense. Like this guy, he's playing like a five

1344
01:09:59,760 --> 01:10:02,920
Speaker 2: year All pro that played at Ohio State, Like he

1345
01:10:03,400 --> 01:10:07,400
Speaker 2: is what justin field should be, like a cocky, smart

1346
01:10:07,960 --> 01:10:11,360
Speaker 2: great in the pocket, uses us athleticism when he needs to,

1347
01:10:11,439 --> 01:10:13,439
Speaker 2: but then usually makes the right read throwing the ball,

1348
01:10:13,560 --> 01:10:16,400
Speaker 2: Like it doesn't make sense because Dobbs is a horrible

1349
01:10:16,439 --> 01:10:18,160
Speaker 2: passer and you saw it in that game. Like there's

1350
01:10:18,160 --> 01:10:19,559
Speaker 2: sometimes where he had all the time in the world

1351
01:10:19,600 --> 01:10:22,880
Speaker 2: he could set his feet and he's throwing terrible balls,

1352
01:10:22,960 --> 01:10:24,960
Speaker 2: or he's throwing in double coverage, Like that's that's the

1353
01:10:24,960 --> 01:10:28,920
Speaker 2: guy's issue. It's not as lethleticism. So yeah, I want

1354
01:10:28,960 --> 01:10:31,920
Speaker 2: to be on the Bears. Like this guy Dobbs is

1355
01:10:31,960 --> 01:10:34,840
Speaker 2: not as good as he's perceived by the public right now,

1356
01:10:34,880 --> 01:10:37,840
Speaker 2: it's it doesn't make sense how he keeps doing it.

1357
01:10:38,400 --> 01:10:40,240
Speaker 2: I totally get it. If you're scared off. You don't

1358
01:10:40,280 --> 01:10:42,000
Speaker 2: want to do it, but I'm telling you, the value

1359
01:10:42,080 --> 01:10:43,760
Speaker 2: is on the Bears. Like this numbers should be two

1360
01:10:43,800 --> 01:10:47,200
Speaker 2: and a half three. You know the fact that it's

1361
01:10:47,320 --> 01:10:51,040
Speaker 2: three and a half. I'll take the numbers just because

1362
01:10:51,800 --> 01:10:54,439
Speaker 2: Chad said it. Like the Bears obviously are a bad team.

1363
01:10:54,479 --> 01:10:58,599
Speaker 2: They're not that good, but they do have such good weapons,

1364
01:10:58,600 --> 01:11:00,800
Speaker 2: Like on their offensive side of the you saw that

1365
01:11:00,840 --> 01:11:03,720
Speaker 2: when they're running fields out that piston't look and it's

1366
01:11:03,720 --> 01:11:05,200
Speaker 2: like he can run the ball to the left, or

1367
01:11:05,240 --> 01:11:07,160
Speaker 2: he can fake the run and then throw it to DJ.

1368
01:11:07,320 --> 01:11:09,680
Speaker 2: It's like they have it all there. They just they

1369
01:11:09,680 --> 01:11:11,760
Speaker 2: just haven't put it together in a complete game. So

1370
01:11:12,680 --> 01:11:16,479
Speaker 2: you know, rams defense, they have looked better, like they

1371
01:11:16,720 --> 01:11:19,960
Speaker 2: they they made moves and those moves have improved that team.

1372
01:11:20,000 --> 01:11:22,360
Speaker 2: The linebacking corps gotten better, Like they're better against the

1373
01:11:22,439 --> 01:11:25,000
Speaker 2: run now as we get later into this season, which

1374
01:11:25,000 --> 01:11:27,040
Speaker 2: will bode well for them against the Vikings, because that's

1375
01:11:27,080 --> 01:11:29,240
Speaker 2: what the Vikings do. They run to set up the pass.

1376
01:11:29,320 --> 01:11:31,600
Speaker 2: Like that's I think Chris told us they're one of

1377
01:11:31,640 --> 01:11:37,920
Speaker 2: the heaviest play action team in all football. So yeah,

1378
01:11:38,040 --> 01:11:43,000
Speaker 2: so I'm on the Bears. Don't know if it's gonna

1379
01:11:43,000 --> 01:11:44,479
Speaker 2: be one of our five. Heere we sit on Tuesday.

1380
01:11:44,479 --> 01:11:45,800
Speaker 2: But I can tell you there is value on the

1381
01:11:45,840 --> 01:11:47,880
Speaker 2: line like this. This number should not be above three.

1382
01:11:47,920 --> 01:11:49,920
Speaker 2: You're getting value right now on a divisional dog a

1383
01:11:50,000 --> 01:11:52,080
Speaker 2: three and a half. So I'm gonna take that with

1384
01:11:52,120 --> 01:11:55,080
Speaker 2: the Bears. But definitely a tough one to do, just

1385
01:11:55,120 --> 01:11:58,559
Speaker 2: because Dobb's been so incredibly lucky this since he's taken

1386
01:11:58,600 --> 01:11:59,719
Speaker 2: over with this Vikings team.

1387
01:12:00,520 --> 01:12:02,519
Speaker 1: Uh, we're gonna get to what our five would be

1388
01:12:02,600 --> 01:12:04,080
Speaker 1: right now at the end. And I'm looking at our

1389
01:12:04,080 --> 01:12:07,599
Speaker 1: list and it's pretty ugly right now. But that's betting folks.

1390
01:12:08,000 --> 01:12:15,479
Speaker 1: Money line underdog round, robin dog blocks your dog, Your

1391
01:12:15,600 --> 01:12:19,200
Speaker 1: dog blocks mot dog. Here are the notes that I've

1392
01:12:19,200 --> 01:12:24,320
Speaker 1: been taking so far. Texans love it, Browns love it.

1393
01:12:25,040 --> 01:12:30,040
Speaker 1: Chargers all right, you have to I threw Washington in there.

1394
01:12:30,360 --> 01:12:34,120
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, give us a big dog in there, big.

1395
01:12:33,920 --> 01:12:36,320
Speaker 1: Dog in there. I'm torn on the fifth.

1396
01:12:36,960 --> 01:12:39,400
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm a sick dog. So I'd either go

1397
01:12:39,520 --> 01:12:43,400
Speaker 2: with the Jets because that's such an insane number that

1398
01:12:43,439 --> 01:12:46,600
Speaker 2: could really bump us up. Oh we didn't do the Giants.

1399
01:12:47,000 --> 01:12:49,800
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, well let's do the Giants then.

1400
01:12:49,960 --> 01:12:51,920
Speaker 2: I'd rather do the Giants much more than the Jets.

1401
01:12:52,080 --> 01:12:54,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, take out the Jets, take out the Giants

1402
01:12:54,760 --> 01:12:56,479
Speaker 1: and take out the Giants. The Jets and put in

1403
01:12:56,479 --> 01:13:04,120
Speaker 1: the Giants. Okay. Houston Browns charge Washington Giants is our

1404
01:13:04,439 --> 01:13:10,080
Speaker 1: money line Underdog round Robin Simon, Let's make Little Caesars,

1405
01:13:10,080 --> 01:13:12,360
Speaker 1: which is the official pizza sponsor of the NFL, part

1406
01:13:12,360 --> 01:13:16,040
Speaker 1: of your game day. We're already in mid November, Simon,

1407
01:13:16,280 --> 01:13:19,599
Speaker 1: this Thanksgiving, are you the most grateful for Little Caesars Pizza?

1408
01:13:21,080 --> 01:13:24,639
Speaker 1: I am order online during our pizza pizza pre game

1409
01:13:24,640 --> 01:13:27,160
Speaker 1: one hour before NFL games and get ready to for

1410
01:13:27,360 --> 01:13:30,639
Speaker 1: some football. In fun, choose your favorite Little Caesar's pizza

1411
01:13:30,960 --> 01:13:35,720
Speaker 1: or pick the toppings you crave. Simon, my friend, what

1412
01:13:35,760 --> 01:13:39,439
Speaker 1: do you think about this new motto I invented? Are

1413
01:13:39,439 --> 01:13:39,880
Speaker 1: you ready?

1414
01:13:40,400 --> 01:13:40,759
Speaker 2: Yes?

1415
01:13:41,120 --> 01:13:45,760
Speaker 1: Even if your car is coated in rust, you can

1416
01:13:45,880 --> 01:13:50,760
Speaker 1: always afford crazy crust. However you order your pizza, you win.

1417
01:13:50,840 --> 01:13:55,200
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or

1418
01:13:55,240 --> 01:13:58,000
Speaker 1: our in store pizzaa portal pickup, So grab some friends

1419
01:13:58,000 --> 01:14:01,880
Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game. Survivor the

1420
01:14:01,920 --> 01:14:10,400
Speaker 1: survivorpool pick of the week for Week twelve, you already

1421
01:14:10,439 --> 01:14:13,519
Speaker 1: said it, Tennessee. Has anything made you change your mind?

1422
01:14:13,960 --> 01:14:16,000
Speaker 2: The Vikings one stands out a little bit now that

1423
01:14:16,040 --> 01:14:18,040
Speaker 2: we're like breaking it down where I haven't used the

1424
01:14:18,120 --> 01:14:21,400
Speaker 2: Vikings either. I feel a little better with Dobbs than

1425
01:14:21,439 --> 01:14:24,120
Speaker 2: I deal with Will Levis. God damn the pressure here

1426
01:14:24,120 --> 01:14:26,840
Speaker 2: because I know you people count on me. God damn you.

1427
01:14:27,680 --> 01:14:29,559
Speaker 2: The only thing that'scaming off the Panthers is that it's

1428
01:14:29,600 --> 01:14:33,519
Speaker 2: stat that Chad gave I got these damn teams. Fucking hey, dude,

1429
01:14:34,120 --> 01:14:36,800
Speaker 2: fuck Will Levis. I can't go with Will Levis. I wait,

1430
01:14:37,560 --> 01:14:39,439
Speaker 2: I'd win so much money if I win this damn

1431
01:14:39,439 --> 01:14:43,080
Speaker 2: Survivor pool. I'm gonna I'm gonna go with Minnesota. You

1432
01:14:43,120 --> 01:14:45,960
Speaker 2: know what, Hopefully Evan saved my life with that stat

1433
01:14:46,000 --> 01:14:50,080
Speaker 2: about the Panthers. I'm gonna go with Minnesota. Dobbs outright,

1434
01:14:50,640 --> 01:14:52,200
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna try to thread the needle here. I

1435
01:14:52,240 --> 01:14:54,920
Speaker 2: have this land on a field goal. I'll take take

1436
01:14:54,920 --> 01:14:57,560
Speaker 2: the Bears in the spread. I'm taking the Vikings to

1437
01:14:57,680 --> 01:14:59,400
Speaker 2: an out right. I hate Survivor pools.

1438
01:14:59,760 --> 01:15:04,240
Speaker 1: Oh, oh my god, You're gonna be excruciating agony on Monday.

1439
01:15:04,000 --> 01:15:05,920
Speaker 2: I'm already I'm already dreading it, but I just the

1440
01:15:05,920 --> 01:15:08,719
Speaker 2: Will Levis thing is killing me, Like he is so bad.

1441
01:15:09,400 --> 01:15:11,800
Speaker 1: All right, I know it's only Tuesday at this point.

1442
01:15:11,840 --> 01:15:14,679
Speaker 1: Do you have, like Tuesday eight am for you already?

1443
01:15:16,000 --> 01:15:21,040
Speaker 1: Any bets that feel relatively big at this point?

1444
01:15:21,320 --> 01:15:25,679
Speaker 2: I mean depressing, I would say depressing wise, it's probably

1445
01:15:25,760 --> 01:15:30,880
Speaker 2: the Giants, Giants Houston. Yeah, that's about it, because I'm

1446
01:15:30,960 --> 01:15:33,679
Speaker 2: hoping that Cleveland line gets up to three. I'm hoping

1447
01:15:33,680 --> 01:15:36,479
Speaker 2: the Eagles gets down to three. I'm hoping Tampa gets

1448
01:15:36,560 --> 01:15:39,280
Speaker 2: up to three again. Like Chad said, it's so early

1449
01:15:39,320 --> 01:15:43,439
Speaker 2: in the week, I really haven't yet, but yeah, gross wise, like,

1450
01:15:43,479 --> 01:15:45,840
Speaker 2: I'm heavily invested in the Giants because I just thought

1451
01:15:45,840 --> 01:15:47,160
Speaker 2: that it would be three by now in the three

1452
01:15:47,200 --> 01:15:48,439
Speaker 2: and a half would be gone. I didn't want to

1453
01:15:48,439 --> 01:15:50,679
Speaker 2: miss it. And I bet a lot on the Houston

1454
01:15:50,760 --> 01:15:53,519
Speaker 2: just in case they do flip to be a favorite.

1455
01:15:53,560 --> 01:15:56,880
Speaker 2: So yeah, most mostly waiting on a lot of these numbers.

1456
01:15:56,920 --> 01:16:02,040
Speaker 2: But yeah, again, it's Tuesday, early bets on fortune heavily

1457
01:16:02,080 --> 01:16:03,000
Speaker 2: invested in the Giants.

1458
01:16:03,800 --> 01:16:06,160
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet

1459
01:16:06,200 --> 01:16:09,280
Speaker 1: three six five Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.

1460
01:16:09,280 --> 01:16:10,960
Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with

1461
01:16:11,080 --> 01:16:14,599
Speaker 1: anyone else. Every day they power up the odds on

1462
01:16:14,720 --> 01:16:16,880
Speaker 1: hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more.

1463
01:16:17,160 --> 01:16:19,800
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five boost specific markets your winnings and

1464
01:16:19,840 --> 01:16:22,160
Speaker 1: even parlays, and they don't stop there. Keep an eye

1465
01:16:22,200 --> 01:16:24,760
Speaker 1: out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible

1466
01:16:25,120 --> 01:16:27,720
Speaker 1: super Boost. Check out the boost and see why it's

1467
01:16:27,840 --> 01:16:30,759
Speaker 1: never ordinary at Bet three six five. Must be twenty

1468
01:16:30,800 --> 01:16:34,519
Speaker 1: one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

1469
01:16:35,000 --> 01:16:38,200
Speaker 1: or eighteen or older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

1470
01:16:38,200 --> 01:16:41,360
Speaker 1: a gambler or one a undred bets off in Iowa terms.

1471
01:16:41,400 --> 01:16:45,800
Speaker 1: Conditions restrictions apply. Here's the recap. Foxhol Houston plus one

1472
01:16:45,800 --> 01:16:50,240
Speaker 1: and a half, Simon says, New York Giants plus three

1473
01:16:51,240 --> 01:16:58,000
Speaker 1: Executive Decision, Las Vegas plus nine Big Balls Cleveland plus

1474
01:16:58,040 --> 01:17:02,360
Speaker 1: two and a half. The round Robin Houston, Cleveland, Los

1475
01:17:02,400 --> 01:17:05,960
Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers, Washington, New York Giants. If we had to

1476
01:17:06,040 --> 01:17:10,519
Speaker 1: lock in five right now, we had a lock in

1477
01:17:10,560 --> 01:17:15,240
Speaker 1: five right now, Simon, I'm going Giants, I'm going Houston.

1478
01:17:16,320 --> 01:17:22,840
Speaker 1: I'd probably go Cleveland, I'd probably go Raiders, and then

1479
01:17:23,160 --> 01:17:24,960
Speaker 1: I'd probably go Chargers.

1480
01:17:25,400 --> 01:17:26,880
Speaker 2: I don't hit it, And I'm just gonna do a

1481
01:17:26,920 --> 01:17:28,720
Speaker 2: quick quick update on a lot of lines because they

1482
01:17:28,720 --> 01:17:32,040
Speaker 2: are moving like crazy. The Rams that one of the

1483
01:17:32,080 --> 01:17:35,959
Speaker 2: most public books have flipped from a minus one favorite

1484
01:17:36,000 --> 01:17:38,479
Speaker 2: against the Arizona to a plus one and a half

1485
01:17:38,520 --> 01:17:41,200
Speaker 2: dog against Arizona, which is pretty big movement. That's two

1486
01:17:41,200 --> 01:17:44,200
Speaker 2: and a half points of movement in the last hour.

1487
01:17:46,120 --> 01:17:49,679
Speaker 2: The Pittsburgh Steelers are up the plus uh one minus

1488
01:17:49,680 --> 01:17:52,720
Speaker 2: one and a half. So if you like Cincy, like

1489
01:17:52,760 --> 01:17:54,840
Speaker 2: cha I was talking about that that first game as

1490
01:17:54,880 --> 01:17:56,559
Speaker 2: a dog, you might be able to wait. That number

1491
01:17:56,640 --> 01:17:59,120
Speaker 2: might keep going up. The fact that's up to one

1492
01:17:59,160 --> 01:18:00,479
Speaker 2: and a half is kind of the big deal because

1493
01:18:00,479 --> 01:18:04,760
Speaker 2: that's like it's getting towards the two. So yeah, some

1494
01:18:04,880 --> 01:18:08,799
Speaker 2: late movement here on these lines, Chad. But yeah, for

1495
01:18:08,800 --> 01:18:11,000
Speaker 2: for our five the ones you just said, and then

1496
01:18:11,040 --> 01:18:15,879
Speaker 2: the Giants, the Giants have moved. There's only two books

1497
01:18:15,880 --> 01:18:18,559
Speaker 2: now showing three and a half for the Giants, So

1498
01:18:19,680 --> 01:18:21,400
Speaker 2: you want to grab that number that that number is

1499
01:18:21,400 --> 01:18:23,640
Speaker 2: literally moving while we do the show. It's moved at

1500
01:18:23,720 --> 01:18:24,320
Speaker 2: five books.

1501
01:18:25,120 --> 01:18:26,719
Speaker 1: That's why you got to watch the show on Sunday.

1502
01:18:26,760 --> 01:18:28,400
Speaker 1: That's why you got to listen to this live so

1503
01:18:28,439 --> 01:18:32,840
Speaker 1: you can get the best of the number. Speaking of live,

1504
01:18:33,040 --> 01:18:36,000
Speaker 1: the Favorites is doing it live on December third, Baby

1505
01:18:36,479 --> 01:18:41,600
Speaker 1: Live from New Jersey December third, This Sunday show, This

1506
01:18:41,800 --> 01:18:45,400
Speaker 1: Sunday show. We'll be live December third from The Shepherd

1507
01:18:45,439 --> 01:18:49,639
Speaker 1: and the Knucklehead in Hoboken. You get prizes, you get drinks,

1508
01:18:49,680 --> 01:18:52,479
Speaker 1: you get in for free warm embraces from me and

1509
01:18:52,560 --> 01:18:57,679
Speaker 1: Simon also free, so much more. You must RSVP go

1510
01:18:57,760 --> 01:19:01,799
Speaker 1: to the link in our description, in the episode pages,

1511
01:19:02,280 --> 01:19:07,640
Speaker 1: on YouTube, and on the podcast page. Be sure to

1512
01:19:07,800 --> 01:19:11,439
Speaker 1: catch the next episode of The Favorites Live this Sunday

1513
01:19:12,280 --> 01:19:18,760
Speaker 1: at seven thirty pm Eastern. Happy Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving gamblers.

1514
01:19:18,800 --> 01:19:21,000
Speaker 1: We do give thanks to you to down Let us

1515
01:19:21,000 --> 01:19:24,160
Speaker 1: from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe,

1516
01:19:24,200 --> 01:19:26,600
Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want feedback as

1517
01:19:26,640 --> 01:19:30,679
Speaker 1: a gift until Thursday until Sunday, seven thirty pm Eastern.

1518
01:19:31,479 --> 01:19:31,960
Speaker 3: Love You.

1519
01:19:37,840 --> 01:19:42,400
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1520
01:19:42,400 --> 01:19:45,200
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, Help us

1521
01:19:45,240 --> 01:19:48,360
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler