1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game, ju Us prout 2 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:05,640 Speaker 1: read enough. 3 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 2: They're all running a game. 4 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 3: So smoothe so sweet. 5 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 2: Mid sixteen, just glorious extracution. Guys. All I'm looking for 6 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 2: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time. 7 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 1: How shot with that shop with mind, buddy, and that's why. 8 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 3: You see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the. 9 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 2: Most dangerous a mount of the planet. 10 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 3: Nobody, kitchen, the. 11 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 1: Shit shut up. I'm trying. 12 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 2: For all. It's left to one of the wide eyed, 13 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 2: drilled bibused. How on earth that happens? 14 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wondergold, the soccer betting podcast 15 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: from the Action Network. I am your host today, BJ 16 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 1: cunning In Michael Leebob is out for episode. I'll be 17 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 1: joined by my friend and co host, Anthony Dbundo in 18 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 1: just a second. But first I need to tell you 19 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 1: that wonder Goal is presented by BET three sixty five, 20 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 1: the world's favorite sportsbook brand. 21 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 3: Sign Up with promo code action. 22 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: To get BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer 23 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:19,119 Speaker 1: in New Jersey, Colorado and Ohio Bet one dollar get 24 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:21,960 Speaker 1: two hundred free. All right, we're coming with you a 25 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 1: little midweek Premier League action. We have six matches on 26 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: the docket. Then we'll touch a little bit on a 27 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: little DFB pocal, maybe some Copa Italia Semifinal Copa del 28 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: rey Semis. All right, there's only one place to start, 29 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 1: and it's on Tuesday at three pm Eastern time at 30 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 1: Stanford Bridge. The Graham potterless Chelsea will be taking on Liverpool. 31 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 1: Chelsea sitting at plus one forty five, Liverpool at plus 32 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: one eighty, with the draw sitting at plus two forty. 33 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 3: We are recording this. 34 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 1: On early Sunday evening, so the news of Graham Potter's 35 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: sacking just came out, so we are reacting to this live. 36 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 3: I'llkick it to you first, Anthony. 37 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: I think it's generally if they're not getting nogglesmen right away, 38 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: I think it's generally insane that they sacked Potter at 39 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 1: this juncture and not before the international break. 40 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't imagine that it Well, right before the 41 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 2: international break, they were actually doing pretty well in terms 42 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 2: of form. You know, they had had some pretty good results. 43 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:20,399 Speaker 2: They advanced in the Champions League, they had beaten leads. 44 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:23,519 Speaker 2: You know, the performances seem to have started to turn 45 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 2: especially the results more importantly, And I said on the 46 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 2: show that you know, I didn't think Bully was stupid 47 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 2: enough to get rid of him this quickly. And I 48 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 2: still think that the only reason you would do that 49 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 2: is if you knew you had noglesmen and that you 50 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 2: could get him, because it doesn't really make a ton 51 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 2: of sense otherwise. Like I love Graham Potter, I think 52 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 2: there's clear evidence that he had turned things a little 53 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 2: bit at Chelsea from an underlying performance perspective. They finally 54 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 2: had in Golo Conte back in the team, which was 55 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 2: something that you know, they have not had all season long, 56 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 2: and they played really well against Villa for the most part. 57 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 2: I know that the final score they lost to know 58 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 2: at home, and it's a results industry and that's how, 59 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 2: you know, that's how managers and club judge their you know, 60 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:08,639 Speaker 2: talent and their managers themselves. But they had been much better, 61 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 2: you know, really since probably you know, middle of January. 62 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 2: I had them. You know, Macro Football Analysis has them 63 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 2: plus points sixty three per ninety since New Year's Day. Now, 64 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 2: the actual goal difference per ninety was negative. They were 65 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 2: one goal below at below par. So the main reason 66 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 2: was finishing. I mean they were producing one point sixty 67 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 2: four x G per match and scoring about fifty percent 68 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 2: of their chances fifty percent of that expected the value 69 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 2: level that's just never going to be sustainable for a 70 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 2: manager to override because at the end of the day, 71 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 2: it's results and they weren't getting them. So you know, 72 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 2: he has to go and they're gonna have to shake 73 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 2: things up. I don't really think it changes my opinion 74 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 2: of Chelsea particularly much. It will be fascinating from a 75 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 2: drama perspective. I still like them. On Tuesday against Liverpool, 76 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 2: I was planning about them either way at home as 77 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 2: a pick them. But yeah, I mean I just think that, 78 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 2: you know, this is like the Island of the Misfit Toys. 79 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 2: Somebody had a tweet today and they said, you know, 80 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 2: if you had to pick Chelsea's best eleven, who would 81 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 2: it be? And you'd get like eight different answers. I 82 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 2: don't know, and then that kind of is hard. You know, 83 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 2: Mudrik hasn't really taken. Felix been good, but the finishing 84 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 2: hasn't been there. Haverig has been good, but the finishing 85 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 2: hasn't been there. So all of these like weird pieces 86 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 2: not really quite fitting together has led to a weird situation. 87 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 2: But again I think it was a mistake and I'll 88 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 2: keep saying that even as the performances will probably say 89 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:38,679 Speaker 2: the same and the result will improve going forward. 90 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:41,719 Speaker 1: No, I agree, it's definitely a mistake, not only that, 91 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 1: but for Chelsea to spend the amount of money that 92 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: they did with that, and they kept saying like, we 93 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 1: have this long term plan, we have this long term 94 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,479 Speaker 1: plan under Potter. We're not gonna, you know, panic, you know, 95 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 1: because obviously you know Arsenal is the is the model, right. 96 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 1: They held on to Michel Arteta even through the hard 97 00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 1: times and look what they got the reward for it. 98 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:03,599 Speaker 1: So yeah, I think the timing is just generally insane, Like, 99 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: I mean, you're playing Real Madrid in less than two 100 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: weeks time in the Champions League to progress and now 101 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 1: you're going to probably be doing that under interim manager 102 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 1: unless they get the Nogglesman deal across the line very 103 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 1: very soon. So I think it's generally insane as far 104 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 1: as their matchup against Liverpool is concerned. I mean Liverpool, 105 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: I mean yet again like another really poor performance away 106 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: from home. It's the problem is and it's something we've 107 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 1: been talking about for a long time now. It's like 108 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: Liverpool's team is designed to set up to be able 109 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 1: to press high, to be able to win the ball 110 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 1: in the final third, get it going forward. They're also 111 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: set up to be a very possession dominant team. Suddenly 112 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: when they're not able to hold that type possession and 113 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: they're the one getting the field tilted on them, you 114 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:47,840 Speaker 1: see how much how lost they are and how much 115 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 1: they struggle to play that type of la bloc. I 116 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 1: mean again, against United excuse me not United City, they 117 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 1: had to pass per defensive action of seventeen point five 118 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 1: and force just one high turnover like that is not 119 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: a yergen clop Liverpool. 120 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 3: So they give up. 121 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:03,280 Speaker 1: Four goals, they give up two point four expected goals 122 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 1: to City and they just romp them in the second half. 123 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 1: So in this match in particular, I was going to say, 124 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,159 Speaker 1: you know, if Potter was in charge, I was assuming 125 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 1: that Chelsea was gonna be able to sustain a lot 126 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 1: of possession, tilt the field. I mean they did over 127 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: did have over an eighty percent field tilt against Villa 128 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:19,719 Speaker 1: and they create over two expected goals and just nothing 129 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: finds the back of the net and suddenly, you know, 130 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:25,359 Speaker 1: Potter gets sacked, so we'll see what happens. This is 131 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,359 Speaker 1: also the rematch of the thrilling zero zero draw on 132 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:32,359 Speaker 1: January twenty first, that you know, over around three expected 133 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 1: goals were created. You know, Liverpool still have glaring defensive 134 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: issues that don't seem to be sold, don't seem to 135 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: be solid anytime soon, and their defense has been pretty 136 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: poor away from home. So Liverpool is essentially two choices 137 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 1: in this match. They can play passive like they did 138 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 1: against City. They can sit deep and they can look 139 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 1: to counter Chelsea, or they can try and press them 140 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: high or do some type of hybrid pressing to be 141 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: able to win the ball in the final third and 142 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 1: catch Chelsea out of position. Well, Chelsea is one of 143 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: the better teams in the Premier League playing through pressure. 144 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 1: There's sixth inn offensive pass per defensive action. So there's 145 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 1: really no like good method of for for Liverpool essentially 146 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: stopping when they have to go up and face one 147 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 1: of these big sides. You know, they've had good defensive 148 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 1: performances against Palace, good defensive performances against Wolves, but Chelsea 149 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 1: is a completely different animal. So and I don't know 150 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:22,239 Speaker 1: if it's going to be a new manager type bounce 151 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 1: because I the general census that I had. 152 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 3: I mean, maybe I'm wrong. 153 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 1: I'm not in the Chelsea dressing room, but it seemed 154 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 1: like that they liked grand Potter. It didn't seem like 155 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: they absolutely hated and wanted gone. And like you know, 156 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 1: Antonio Conte with Tottenham. So yeah, so I'll be on 157 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 1: I'll be on the over here. Over two and a 158 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 1: half minus one fifteen. I think it is a little low, 159 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 1: giving what happened in the previous meeting and how bad 160 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: Liverpool's defense is. So and I do project a lower 161 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: three goals for it. So over two and a half 162 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: for me in Chelsea Liverpool, all right, Yeah. 163 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 2: Look, I think if you want to do you want 164 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 2: to think about? Do you want to think about kind 165 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 2: of how the market responds to your managerial firing? Uh, 166 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 2: Chelsea took money against them in this Liverpool match on 167 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 2: Tuesday after the firing, and Chelsea went from plus one 168 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 2: twelve to plus one fifty to advance against Real Madrid 169 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 2: in the Champions League the first leg. Real Madrid went 170 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 2: from minus one twenty up to about minus won forty 171 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 2: con centsus now, so the market said, oh, you fired 172 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 2: Graham Potter. Well he's so bad that we now think 173 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 2: you're worse. Yeah, so obviously, you know, the market had 174 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 2: respect for Potter and no market really downgraded them off 175 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 2: of yesterday's performance. No, And I keep tabs on kind 176 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 2: of the lines, and they didn't. And so you know, 177 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 2: it's clearly not a plus TV firing based on the 178 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 2: current situation. We'll see who they hire and we'll see 179 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 2: what happens. But I will be happy to bet Chelsea 180 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:41,959 Speaker 2: the better price going forward if they're gonna give me 181 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 2: a discount, because I still think this is I mean, 182 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 2: it's the first game. You expect some kind of response, 183 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 2: and again the positive variance that we've talked about for months, 184 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 2: I talked about for months especially Yeah, so I like Chelsea. 185 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,719 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's just it's generally it's insane to 186 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: spend the amount of money that they did under the 187 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 1: assumption that it was going to be under what Graham 188 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 1: Potter wanted and then just to fire him essentially two 189 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: or three months later. So generally insane. But you know what, 190 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 1: this is the world, this is world football, the results 191 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 1: driven business. And we'll get to another manager that got 192 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:17,599 Speaker 1: sacked because now we're up to twelve. 193 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 3: In the Premier League so far of the season. 194 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to one of my six 195 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 1: super bowls throughout the season, Manchester United hosting Brentford on 196 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: Wednesday at three pm Eastern time. Manchester United is somehow 197 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: a minus one sixty seven home favorite Brentford sitting at 198 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 1: plus four fifty, with the draw sitting at plus three hundred. 199 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: I think everybody knows where this conversation is going to go, Anthony. 200 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 1: Manchester United is still going to be without Castamiro. Brentford 201 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: put in a although they conceded a boatload of expected 202 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: goals to Brighton, I didn't think they were overly that 203 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 1: bad against them. But let's get your thoughts first round. 204 00:09:57,480 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: United Brentford, Well. 205 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 2: You can take your victory lap time. 206 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, I mean, come on, people, I mean, 207 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:04,680 Speaker 1: what are we doing here? We know this and I'll 208 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: get to it in my notes. 209 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 3: But United they don't play up the competition. 210 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 1: They've been dominating the bottom of half the table and 211 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: suddenly everybody thinks they're good. No no, no, no, no 212 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 1: no no. This team, I mean they did absolutely nothing 213 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: against Newcastle. Three shots in the first seventy minutes, nothing 214 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 1: of value. Oh sorry, this is I'm way too biased. 215 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:24,959 Speaker 1: I'll let you get your thoughts first. 216 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 2: Now, look, I watched every minute of the match today 217 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 2: with a Man United fan and that was a fun experience. 218 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 2: But I think that it was very evident from very 219 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:38,680 Speaker 2: early on how bad mcdonmanay and Silencer were in possession today. 220 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 2: They were non existent. And you know United had a 221 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 2: fifty four percent of the possession in this match. And 222 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 2: it's not like they trailed the whole way. I mean 223 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 2: Newcastle didn't really score until what was the seventieth minute. 224 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 2: They finally scored a sixty fifth minute, so this was 225 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 2: a very even game state For the majority of the 226 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 2: match United had the ball. Mcdonm and ay is so 227 00:10:56,480 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 2: bad in possession. He had some value defensively and he 228 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 2: gets some shots, but he doesn't do anything on the ball. 229 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 2: He doesn't show for the ball against pressure. Sobitzer and 230 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 2: mcdonmini's from mark our stats on Twitter too, they contributed 231 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 2: less ball progression via the pass than Bruno alone. So 232 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 2: it's like playing down a man with the ball. I mean, 233 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 2: it essentially is, because they're about half of a player, 234 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 2: and that's a huge problem against Brentford because Brentford, you know, 235 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 2: we talked about this in the last episode Heartbreak for 236 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 2: Michael's plus four fifty ticket to give a stoppage time 237 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 2: penalty away on a handball, but I mean it was 238 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 2: there's almost another handball and it basically stopped the goal 239 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 2: from happening, So you can't complain. But you know, Brentford 240 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 2: is very comfortable without the ball, and they have still 241 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 2: yet to lose a match this season in which they've 242 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 2: had less possession than their opponents. So why would I 243 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,080 Speaker 2: not back them at plus one here? I have to 244 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 2: do it, and I'm probably probably gonna regret it because 245 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 2: I didn't get in on the United State on the road. 246 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:58,680 Speaker 2: But Casimiro being out huge loss. Fred coming off the 247 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 2: bench not sure or he's fully fit at the moment either, 248 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 2: And that's a big loss relatively speaking, because now you're 249 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 2: down Ericson who's so good as a passer, Castamiro who's 250 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 2: kind of the metronome of this team in the midfield, 251 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 2: and then Fred, who look, I don't think he's like 252 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 2: a world class player, but a good player for the 253 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 2: for United. So when you take them all out, you 254 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 2: have a big hole there, and I don't think that's 255 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 2: gonna work well against Brentford, so I will take the goal. 256 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 2: Minus one eighteen is the best number I found out 257 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 2: there right now, So I like the Bees, and y 258 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 2: Bees is a dog. We're all gonna take it. Michaelill 259 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 2: probably put the money line too. 260 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, No, I'll probably take the money line too. 261 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 1: I mean, we talk about this all the time and you, 262 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 1: I mean you said up very perfectly that Brentford is 263 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: so comfortable without the ball, they're so good at defending 264 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 1: their penalty area, and you know, United, what's been happening 265 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 1: consistently for them is like they're very, very good as 266 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: a direct, counter attacking style team. And you kind of 267 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 1: saw it today, like you mentioned, they didn't where they 268 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 1: actually held fifty four percent possession and they tried to 269 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: build up against Newcastle. Well it didn't really work because 270 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: Newcastle forced nine high turnovers and then they got them 271 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 1: going in transition and then exploited them for about two 272 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:08,199 Speaker 1: point eight expected goals. So now you get in a 273 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 1: situation where Brentford, who is very comfortable at the ball. 274 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 1: But that's not to say that Brentford just doesn't provide 275 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:16,680 Speaker 1: any resistance and they just let you into their final 276 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 1: third to do whatever, Like Brentford is still eighth and 277 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 1: passed per defensive action. If we remember the last time 278 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 1: these two teams met, albeit it was at the beginning 279 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: of the season, so obviously a ton has changed since then. 280 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: But Brentford pressed United high and build up play and 281 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:33,199 Speaker 1: they forced a bunch of mistakes from them. So now 282 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: United's in a situation where they say, Okay, we don't 283 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 1: have Casamirow, who's our best transitional defender. The way that 284 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:44,839 Speaker 1: we have the most success is when a match becomes transitional, right, 285 00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 1: Like they're very very good in counter attacking opportunities, they're 286 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 1: not very good when they're saying, okay, let's just build 287 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 1: off in the back, especially without Casta Meiro. So if 288 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 1: they're gonna build out of the back and Brentford's gonna 289 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:57,599 Speaker 1: press them, I mean there's gonna be so many opportunities 290 00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 1: in transition without Casamira. I mentioned in the last podcast 291 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 1: with Casimiro, they're units allowing one point one expected goals 292 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 1: without them, it's one point sixty eight. It's a massive 293 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 1: difference for them defensively, and a lot of that has 294 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 1: to do with in transition and Brentford. If you're first 295 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: time listener of this podcast, they are one of the 296 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,560 Speaker 1: best team. They are the best team right now because 297 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 1: Brighton has had some bad results playing against the Big 298 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: Six this season. They are the only team outside of 299 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 1: obviously the Big Six playing against each other, but the 300 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 1: only team outside of the Big Six that it plays 301 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 1: the Big Six that has a plus a positive expected 302 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 1: gold official plus point eight and when you factor in also, 303 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 1: like you mentioned, every match against the Big six Big 304 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 1: Six they've held less than forty percent possession and they 305 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: still have a positive expected gold differential, so they are 306 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:47,440 Speaker 1: perfectly fine not having possession encountering United. A lot of 307 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 1: their success obviously they've had. 308 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 3: They've been poor on the road. 309 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 1: They've been much better all Trafford, but a lot of 310 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: their successes come against the bottom half of the table. 311 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 1: Against the top half of the table this season, they 312 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: have a minus five point eight expected gold differential. They 313 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: have not played well up to competition. So and the 314 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 1: splits for Renford arn't is drastic going versus at home 315 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: versus away, they're plus five expect gold frenchial home versus 316 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 1: minus one at the road. Plus I mean Brentford's drawn 317 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 1: Arsenal and they've beaten City on the road like they've 318 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: proven that they can do it. So yeah, I mean 319 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: this is a crazy price. I mean, let's think about 320 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 1: this like the way that Brighton's playing right now. I 321 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 1: know the results haven't been there, but I mean this 322 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 1: is United's price just a little bit above Brighton right 323 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: now without Casimir. Are they generally that much better than 324 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: Brighton at this given juncture. 325 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 3: No they're not. 326 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 1: So I have United projected at minus one out five, 327 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 1: So yeah, I love our b's plus. I'm with you 328 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 1: on plus one and I'll probably be sprinkling the money 329 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 1: line as well. 330 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 3: All right, let's. 331 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 1: Move on to Tuesday two forty five pm Eastern time. 332 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 1: Bourne myth coming off that rousing two to one victory 333 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 1: over Fulham. They're taking on Brighton. Bournemouth is a five 334 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 1: to one home underdog, Brighton sitting at minus one eighty eight, 335 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: with the draw sitting at plus US three twenty at 336 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 1: these odds, as always coming from our wonderful sponsor at 337 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 1: bet three sixty five, I'll turn over to you first, Anthony. 338 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: What do you have for Bourne with Brighton? 339 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm gonna pass here. I see your point 340 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 2: that you're gonna make in a second on why you 341 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 2: like goals here, and I absolutely see it. I mean, 342 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 2: Brighton has been an absolute juggernaut in the last two months, 343 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 2: essentially since February started. They averaged the most expected coals 344 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 2: four in the PREM and it's not even that close. 345 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 2: They're upbridge close to two point five x G per ninety. 346 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 2: The next closest is two point three. That's that's super 347 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 2: nova stuff. You know. Now they're playing one of the 348 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 2: two or three worst defenses in the Prem by most 349 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 2: numbers except for goals loud, and so I think that, 350 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 2: you know, you can look at this Bournemouth team and say, 351 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 2: how do they stop them? You know, they've conceded, like 352 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 2: I said, the most they're actually now they're actually the 353 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 2: most expected goals loud in the league this season. So 354 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 2: I don't see a ton of things here. It's not 355 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:04,200 Speaker 2: as if Brighton is particularly overvalued. The numbers about right 356 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 2: for me. Total is a little low. I need to 357 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 2: deal over it with you, but I have not bet 358 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 2: this match. 359 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: I will be on over two and f goals at 360 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,239 Speaker 1: you can find out a minus one zero six as 361 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: the best price. I mean you mentioned, I mean Brian 362 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 1: just haves it offensive for so, I mean they're some 363 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,400 Speaker 1: XG models had them creating four point five expected goals 364 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 1: against Brentford. That is insane to think about how good 365 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 1: that is. Obviously there's a penalty in there, but it 366 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:31,199 Speaker 1: just goes to show you how good they are offensively 367 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 1: and how many numbers they commit forward under deserve ya 368 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:35,919 Speaker 1: against the bottom half the half of the table this season, 369 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:39,360 Speaker 1: they're averaging one point nine expected goals. 370 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 3: In eleven matches. That's insane. 371 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 1: I mean this is also the previous match was bright 372 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 1: and one at the very end one nothing on a 373 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:50,960 Speaker 1: Matoma late winner. But I mean they did essentially to 374 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:53,479 Speaker 1: Bourne with what they just did to Brentford. I mean 375 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,360 Speaker 1: they held over seventy percent possession, they'd a field till 376 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,400 Speaker 1: it over seventy five percent and created two point two 377 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 1: expected goals. But the thing with Deserby and what happened 378 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 1: against Brentford, which I'm starting to think that like Bournemouth 379 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 1: is like this Brentford junior. They're obviously not as good 380 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 1: or even close to it, but the style of play 381 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 1: and how they're able to create these chances are kind 382 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 1: of reminiscent of what Brentford's doing. I mean in that 383 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 1: match they still create a one point one expected goals 384 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,919 Speaker 1: against Brighton, and it's because Deserbe's style of play is 385 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 1: uber uber aggressive and it leads them vulnerable in transition defense. 386 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:25,360 Speaker 1: Now they have Kai Seto who's an incredible transition defender 387 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:27,919 Speaker 1: and it helps them. But the numbers they are committing 388 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:31,200 Speaker 1: forward to try to create overloads to try to break 389 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,159 Speaker 1: down these low blocks, it does leave you exposed and 390 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 1: you commit that many men forward. Bournemouth, I mean that 391 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 1: was they cooked Fulham. They created two point six expected goals. 392 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,919 Speaker 1: I believe that is their best expectable output of the 393 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:48,199 Speaker 1: entire season. Maybe the match against Everton right before the 394 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 1: World Cup break might have been a little bit more. 395 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: But since January twenty first, the Cherries have created nine 396 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,119 Speaker 1: point six expected goals in eight matches. Like that is 397 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 1: that is halfway decent for what is supposedly the worst 398 00:18:58,359 --> 00:18:59,760 Speaker 1: worst offense in the Premier League. 399 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 3: And they just do such a good job. 400 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 1: Of creating these one or two great chances per match, 401 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 1: so you know they're they they're a top five extra 402 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 1: per set piece team. Now brent Brighton, I mean they're 403 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,400 Speaker 1: bottom five set piece defense. They conceded one against Brentford. 404 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 1: They haven't been that good against them and Brighton. Honestly, 405 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 1: their transition defense hasn't been that great either, So I 406 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: think this is a good spot here for some goals. 407 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:26,120 Speaker 1: I project a little over three goals for this match, 408 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 1: so I like over two and a half at minus 409 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:32,399 Speaker 1: one o five. All right, let's move on to a 410 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 1: Midlands derby, Leeds taking on Nottingham Forest. Leads is sitting 411 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 1: at minus one twenty five, Nottingham Forest sitting at plus 412 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 1: three fifty, with the draw sitting at plus two sixty. 413 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,840 Speaker 1: This match is on Tuesday at two forty five pm 414 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 1: Eastern time. I got nothing on this match. I think 415 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: Leeds is properly priced here. Leeds worries me a little 416 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,880 Speaker 1: bit without Tyler Adams, but you know, Nottingham I have 417 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 1: no interest of playing Forest on the road. Who's still 418 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: I believe is just still scored three goals on the road. 419 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 3: So I'll be passing. Do you have anything for leads 420 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:04,199 Speaker 3: selling for us? 421 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 2: I do not either. I am passing here, my first 422 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 2: non bet On leads in like three years. But it's interesting. 423 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,119 Speaker 2: I don't know if you watched Saturday the BJ I 424 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,679 Speaker 2: did today and window Leads almost scored in the eleven 425 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:21,679 Speaker 2: seconds in. They had a chance that rams down how 426 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:23,879 Speaker 2: to make a good save on Yeah, I was. I 427 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 2: was getting ready to take a very premature victory. 428 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 1: Laugh. 429 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 2: They made a sweat, we got our goal. Another another 430 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 2: another Arsenal BTTs cash maating that defense in a game 431 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,680 Speaker 2: that was not competitive otherwise. But yeah, no, I've got 432 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,400 Speaker 2: nothing here, I think. Uh yeah, I don't want to bet. 433 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,679 Speaker 2: Leadings is a minus one twenty five favorite against anybody 434 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,440 Speaker 2: in this league right now given their defensive issues. Wilbur 435 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,679 Speaker 2: remains out with an injury. That's a problem, and so 436 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 2: I will sit this one out and we can move 437 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 2: on to the other matches, which I have more to 438 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 2: say about. 439 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's move on to one of the other managers 440 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:57,400 Speaker 1: who just got fired on Sunday. 441 00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 3: Leicester taking on aston. 442 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:04,399 Speaker 1: Villa Tuesday at two forty five pm Eastern Time. Lester 443 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,439 Speaker 1: is sitting at a plus one fifty home favorite aston 444 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 1: Villa at plus one eighty with a draw a plus 445 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 1: two thirty for four years. Brendan Rodgers has been sacked again. 446 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 1: The timing, it's in mutual consent. The timing's very weird. 447 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 1: Considering how bad Lester started the season, and he probably 448 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:22,879 Speaker 1: should have been sacked when they were sitting at the 449 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: bottom of the table. But all everything I read was 450 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 1: that they couldn't afford to sack him. So it looks 451 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 1: like they maybe found some mutual consent where both parties 452 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: are happy. 453 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 3: But I mean Lester, I mean they got. 454 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 1: They got Roy Hodgton on Saturday. I mean the Crystal 455 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:43,239 Speaker 1: Palace destroyed them. I mean it was insane how I mean, 456 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,959 Speaker 1: I tweeted it out at one point once Lester went 457 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 1: ahead on their on the goal. 458 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 3: I mean shots were twenty one to three. 459 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't understand what's going on at Lester, 460 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 1: but I have nothing on this match. I think that 461 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,399 Speaker 1: the price is generally fine. I still don't really want 462 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 1: Tom back this left team, but you do. 463 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 2: First time all season. 464 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,199 Speaker 1: Yeah, I backed them against United. 465 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 2: So I mean from a by high, by low and 466 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 2: sell high perspective, this is a great situational spot and 467 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:12,920 Speaker 2: this is a great market spot. The look ahead here 468 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 2: was was Leicester plus one twenty five one twenty. We 469 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 2: got a ton of market movement because they got the 470 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,120 Speaker 2: ship beat out of them by Crystal Palace and because 471 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 2: Villa got a road win at Chelsea that was entirely undeserved. 472 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,400 Speaker 2: Look Villas up to ninth in the table, and look, 473 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,359 Speaker 2: I have a bet on them to be the top 474 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,879 Speaker 2: non Big six team that has some life. We're only 475 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 2: what six points behind there, so you know it has 476 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 2: some light. But really, if you look at the underlying 477 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 2: numbers of this Villa team, uh, they continue to be 478 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:47,119 Speaker 2: extremely average. They're unbeaten in they had a very nice 479 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 2: unbeaten run here, five straight matches in the league, unbeaten, 480 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 2: four wins in a draw. They have had generally okay performances. 481 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 2: You know, they had won three of them on XG. 482 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:57,280 Speaker 2: But again, you know, they go to west Ham, they 483 00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 2: go to Chelsea, they played pretty solidly and they get 484 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,359 Speaker 2: results from those matches despite conceding over two XG in 485 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 2: both of them. And it's continuously the same problem. I mean, 486 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 2: they have been trying to Emery is insistent on playing 487 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 2: out for the back and look, they played with fire 488 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 2: on Saturday against Chelsea. They got away with it. They're 489 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,439 Speaker 2: winning right now. Therefore they keep getting away with it, 490 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 2: They're not gonna keep getting away with it forever. And 491 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 2: I think that's the kind of style that Lester needs here. 492 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 2: I've said this all year. I don't think Lester has 493 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:24,720 Speaker 2: no talent. I don't think they're one of the three 494 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 2: worst teams in this league. They're now sitting in eighteenth. 495 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,960 Speaker 2: I think what happened is it got stale. And I 496 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 2: know it's a narrative thing, and it's what you're hear 497 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 2: all the pundits will say about Rogers Lester. But you 498 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 2: could almost see it about halfway through last season that 499 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 2: the cliff had just come for Vardi and they had 500 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:47,400 Speaker 2: no other real answers for that, and the defensive regression 501 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 2: was very real. And I think that will get fixed 502 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:53,400 Speaker 2: for one game. For the short term, they do need 503 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 2: some squad refreshing. I'm not saying Lester's gonna go on 504 00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:58,800 Speaker 2: a big winning run now, but at home as a 505 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,920 Speaker 2: pick them against Villa, they're only marginally worse than Villa 506 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:05,440 Speaker 2: as a team, I'm gonna take them here. I'm gonna 507 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:07,200 Speaker 2: ply low on a team that has not gotten a 508 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 2: result in five matches and against the team that has 509 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,160 Speaker 2: gotten a result in five straight. Yeah. 510 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,400 Speaker 3: No, it's and you know the reverse a year. 511 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you mentioned in the verse picture, I 512 00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,919 Speaker 1: mean Lester pressed them high and caused all sorts of 513 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 1: problems and that was the reason why they won. For one, 514 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 1: it was all just aston Villa playing out of the 515 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,680 Speaker 1: back and just counterattacking opportunities. So yeah, I mean I 516 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 1: don't hate it. I mean from a situational spots standpoint, 517 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: it's probably as good as you're gonna get for Lester 518 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:35,680 Speaker 1: for the remainder of the season. All right, let's move 519 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 1: on to the final match of the six match slate. 520 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: This is Wednesday at three pm Eastern time. West Ham off. 521 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,919 Speaker 1: They're a one nail win against Southampton. They are plus 522 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,359 Speaker 1: two sixty against Newcastle, who is a plus one to 523 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,520 Speaker 1: fifteen road favorite, with the draw sitting at plus two 524 00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:56,719 Speaker 1: twenty five. You know, I was going to pass on this, 525 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,160 Speaker 1: and then now Newcastle is starting to take some money, 526 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 1: so now I'm starting to you think, maybe a bit 527 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:06,160 Speaker 1: on west Ham. I do have Newcastle at. 528 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,640 Speaker 3: You know, plus one forty. 529 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,399 Speaker 1: Plus one thirty six to be exact, So if you 530 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:17,159 Speaker 1: give me west Ham minus one twenty five minus one 531 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 1: twenty or better, I'll probably end up taking it. 532 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,879 Speaker 3: You know. The problem I have with this is that. 533 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,200 Speaker 1: And I mean, listen, the reverse fixture west Ham played 534 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 1: them very, very evenly. I believe it was one of 535 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: those matches we were all on west Ham when it 536 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 1: was at Newcastle. 537 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 3: Yep. 538 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 1: Newcastle scored in the third minute and then from that 539 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: point on they only were able to create point seven 540 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:39,879 Speaker 1: expected goals. I mean this west Ham team did a 541 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 1: great job of controlling the match against Southampton on Sunday. 542 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:45,240 Speaker 1: They obviously they got the goal in around the twentieth 543 00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 1: minute and then from that point on I mean, Southampton 544 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,240 Speaker 1: one big chance at the end, but other than that, 545 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 1: west Ham controlled a lot of possession and controlled that 546 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 1: match very very well. So I don't hate to look 547 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 1: at west Ham here plus a half, especially at home there. 548 00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 1: They're still desperate, they still need to get out of 549 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,840 Speaker 1: the relegation zone, while Newcastle one of the biggest home 550 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,159 Speaker 1: road splits teams in the Premier League, so generally it 551 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 1: is a decent spot here for Newcastle. So I will 552 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 1: be on west Ham if the market continues to take 553 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,360 Speaker 1: money or Newcastle continues to take money. 554 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,440 Speaker 3: Other than that, I'll probably end the staying way. Do 555 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:16,400 Speaker 3: you have anything for this match? 556 00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:17,440 Speaker 1: Yeah? 557 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,400 Speaker 2: I agree, it's west Ham or nothing here. I am 558 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,080 Speaker 2: waiting a little bit this month, like you said the 559 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,120 Speaker 2: market did move heavily toward Newcastle. I mean, how could 560 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,639 Speaker 2: it not after the performance of their season. But you know, 561 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 2: you have the biggest win arguably of your entire season. 562 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:30,280 Speaker 2: Then you have to go on the road against a 563 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 2: very scrappy, good defensive West Ham team, and Newcastle as 564 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,160 Speaker 2: a road favorite in this league still has flaws because 565 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 2: they don't commit numbers forward, they don't take a lot 566 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,800 Speaker 2: of chances, they don't break down settled possession or settle 567 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 2: defenses all that well. They want to have high turnovers, 568 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:48,119 Speaker 2: they want to get numbers advantages, and you're just not 569 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,639 Speaker 2: going to get that against this passive Moisey and style. 570 00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,199 Speaker 2: So it's west Ham or nothing. If it gets to 571 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:54,680 Speaker 2: like I said, I agree with you one hundred percent. 572 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:56,840 Speaker 2: My number is pretty close to yours. If I get 573 00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 2: plus a half at a little bit less choose, I will 574 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 2: be on the Hammers to win that one. But yeah, Newcastle, 575 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:04,399 Speaker 2: I mean top. 576 00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,760 Speaker 3: Four races, I'd say, yeah, bright. 577 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,920 Speaker 2: In Liverpool Spurs all in that race for those two spots. 578 00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it was a it was a great 579 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,439 Speaker 1: weekend for Newcastle top four betters. 580 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:15,239 Speaker 3: I mean that was uh. 581 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,679 Speaker 1: I mean with obviously with bright and drawing, and we 582 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,679 Speaker 1: still have U recording this on Sunday. We still have 583 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,040 Speaker 1: Tottenham Everton on Monday, which should be a a rousing 584 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:26,119 Speaker 1: match as well. Bang we should be a banger a 585 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 1: wonder gold Darby. But uh yeah, all right, so that 586 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 1: I'll do it for the Premier League slate. Uh, let's 587 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:37,639 Speaker 1: move on to uh some some cup matches from around Europe. 588 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 1: Let's start with in the Bundesliga with some DFP pocale 589 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:47,119 Speaker 1: in the quarterfinals. Uh. The headliner is gonna be Leipzig 590 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,040 Speaker 1: against Dartmann, which I'm gonna be on the same side 591 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 1: as you Would'll let you discuss it first. 592 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 3: It's the Marco Rosa Love Triangle Bowl again. 593 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,200 Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, you know, we talked a lot of 594 00:27:56,359 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 2: your class Seeker on the show with Eric last week, 595 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,640 Speaker 2: and what would we get from Byron that Dormund match man? 596 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,560 Speaker 2: Like the first ten minutes, I thought Dormant played really well. 597 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 2: They were in the game, they were causing problems. You 598 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:11,800 Speaker 2: could just see it on Koble's face. As soon as 599 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 2: he whiffed the game was over. They never recovered. I 600 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,840 Speaker 2: mean it was embarrassing. And look, you know, Byron is 601 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 2: clearly the better team. They were at home, they won whatever, 602 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 2: But the first goal in the third goal I had 603 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,120 Speaker 2: under so I was tilting but I lost the can. 604 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,520 Speaker 2: But just seeing, you know, the guy who's been, you know, 605 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 2: the best goal in the league arguably this season, who's 606 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:34,680 Speaker 2: been elite as a shot stopper for more than a 607 00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:40,080 Speaker 2: year now have those two blunders. Was hilarious and sad 608 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 2: at the same time. But the Tutter race is not over, however, 609 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 2: I do think there's a hangover problem there. Like now 610 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 2: you go on the road to Leipzig. Leipzig just had 611 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:51,720 Speaker 2: an embarrassing home loss to Minds. They got destroyed at 612 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,680 Speaker 2: home again. Fine, their title, their top four hopes are 613 00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 2: in trouble. This is a revenge angle. This is a 614 00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 2: get right spot for Leipzig. They're a still better team 615 00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 2: in my power ratings. They're at home and they're only 616 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,920 Speaker 2: a plus one thirty under a favorite on the money line, 617 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,280 Speaker 2: so I have value on them here. I'm taking them here. 618 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 2: If you go back to that first or the last 619 00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:14,920 Speaker 2: meeting which had just happened in Dortmund, Leipzig struggled a 620 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 2: little bit with some direct stuff over the top, but 621 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 2: the regular you know, play moments the midfield exchanges getting 622 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,560 Speaker 2: the ball in the Oteen's penalty area. It wasn't even 623 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 2: really close. How much better Leipzig was than Dormant, and 624 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 2: that was at Dorman, so coming home in the ocal 625 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:32,920 Speaker 2: and this is a good spot. I think Leipzig had 626 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 2: this one circled then they were they were flat coming 627 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,280 Speaker 2: off the break, and I think there is definitely a 628 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 2: type of a hangover that comes for Dortmand after getting 629 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,480 Speaker 2: embarrassed like that. I don't necessarily think there's a bounce 630 00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,360 Speaker 2: back here from them. So I like the spot and 631 00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 2: the number for Leipsig at home. 632 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,160 Speaker 3: Yeah you mentioned that. I agree. I'm going to be 633 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:48,840 Speaker 3: on Lepsig as well. 634 00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 1: I project them at minus one eleven, so I'm projecting 635 00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 1: pretty decent value on here at home. And even that 636 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:58,440 Speaker 1: previous meeting. I mean, you know, Dortmund did win to one, 637 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,160 Speaker 1: but I mean they Leipzig one unexpected goals two point 638 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 1: two to one point two and Doormant had a penalty 639 00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:07,160 Speaker 1: like they created nothing from hope and play, so uh, 640 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 1: you know Leipzig, I mean towards the end of the match, 641 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:13,280 Speaker 1: I mean Leipzig outshot them in the second half fourteen 642 00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:17,080 Speaker 1: to three like it was a completely dominant second half performance. 643 00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 1: And again, like you mentioned embarrassing home performance against Mines, 644 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,520 Speaker 1: you know, Dortmand Obviously that was that was their super bowl. 645 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 1: They needed, they needed that one to I would think 646 00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:27,760 Speaker 1: to have any shot at winning the title. Obviously the 647 00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 1: title race is no over. They still still but that was. Yeah, 648 00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:37,280 Speaker 1: that was a worst Yeah, exactly so. But yeah, I 649 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 1: mean Marco Rosea against his former team. Uh, we'll see again. 650 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:44,840 Speaker 1: But no, I agree with you. This is a good 651 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,720 Speaker 1: Leipzig spot here, a Leipzig team that also is very 652 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 1: very good on set pieces of Dortmant is still having 653 00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:50,400 Speaker 1: problems with those. 654 00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:55,160 Speaker 2: So it's also a decent Frankfurt spot there. 655 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,880 Speaker 3: I know I saw that too. It's gross, it's gross. 656 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:00,560 Speaker 2: But Frankfurt beat the sh out of them a couple 657 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:04,920 Speaker 2: of weeks ago and lost and true form and Idrek 658 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,720 Speaker 2: comes home now. Same more price to this one. Un 659 00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:12,240 Speaker 2: you know, has this real Europa League thing going. Uh 660 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 2: they're out now, but yeah, I mean they're they're gonna 661 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,400 Speaker 2: be more focus. I think the PoCA true yeah, uh 662 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 2: that they're more focused on I think on the but 663 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 2: I don't know, but I don't want to bet Frankfort 664 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:25,640 Speaker 2: because I don't like them either. It's a luckbox bowl. 665 00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,080 Speaker 2: But Frankfort does have the better underline numbers and is 666 00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 2: at home, so it could be a good Frankfort spot. 667 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's move on to uh let's move 668 00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 1: down to Italy the Copa Italian semifinals. 669 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:38,959 Speaker 3: You have something for us in these semifinal matches. 670 00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, I keep going back and fortheen betting on and 671 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,320 Speaker 2: against you inter Milan. I bet on them, they lost. 672 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,160 Speaker 2: I bet against them, they lost, So I'm betting on 673 00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:50,200 Speaker 2: them again on the road at Juventus plus one thirty 674 00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,160 Speaker 2: five drawn o bet at bet It this morning. I 675 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,440 Speaker 2: just think that's a wild miss price. I'm expecting a 676 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 2: very conservative approach from both managers. Really, the biggest problem 677 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,440 Speaker 2: has been the finishing. I mean, Martinez and Lucaco have 678 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 2: been brutal in front of goal for the last month 679 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:05,959 Speaker 2: and it has cost him. They just can't score. I mean, 680 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:07,880 Speaker 2: when your entire attack is built around getting good shots 681 00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:09,800 Speaker 2: for those two guys, you get those good shots and 682 00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,160 Speaker 2: they don't finish them, you run into the problem they 683 00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,360 Speaker 2: have now where you know, against Porto and the Champions 684 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,160 Speaker 2: League they squeaked by because they couldn't finish anything, and 685 00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:21,080 Speaker 2: they get rolled by Juventus and then they lose to 686 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 2: Fiorentina in a match they were the better side. So 687 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,360 Speaker 2: eventually positive regression is coming for these two. I don't 688 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 2: expect Lucaco and Martinez to miss forever and I like 689 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 2: them better than Enter or Juventus, so even on the road, 690 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:37,280 Speaker 2: I like them in this spot. Uh Jonovett plus one thirty. 691 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 2: It should be a good matchup. It's fun because you know, 692 00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 2: you get to the it's like a cup week and 693 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,600 Speaker 2: there's all these pretty high profile matches, including the one 694 00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:44,479 Speaker 2: we're gonna talk about next. 695 00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 3: Ye. 696 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:46,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, I read something in Gazi he's got three matches 697 00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 1: to save his job. 698 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,560 Speaker 2: So yeah, he's in Zag. He's done. I think at 699 00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 2: the end of the year either way. Yeah, unless they 700 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:54,800 Speaker 2: like win the Champions League. 701 00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,400 Speaker 3: But which means you know who's coming back then, right? 702 00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 1: I don't think Kante back to Oh of course he 703 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,840 Speaker 1: comes back to Enter, Come on, I don't think so. 704 00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:03,920 Speaker 3: We'll see. 705 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,800 Speaker 1: I thought they were targeting Deserby as well, like everybody 706 00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:11,200 Speaker 1: wants Deservey now, like stay away from Desservey, let him 707 00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:12,400 Speaker 1: stay upright and four more season. 708 00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 3: But yeah, we'll see all. 709 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,320 Speaker 1: Right, let's move on to another UH Cup semi final 710 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 1: down over in Spain, the Copa del Rey semifinals. We 711 00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:27,840 Speaker 1: have an o'classico between again again, third classic in like 712 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,800 Speaker 1: a month. It was just like the sixth meeting between 713 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 1: these two so far this season. 714 00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,280 Speaker 3: Actually, I think it is the we should be. 715 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,240 Speaker 2: The meeting, right, yeah, okay, two meetings, two Cup meetings, 716 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:43,000 Speaker 2: be the third Cup meeting. Barci's cooking them of late. 717 00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:43,960 Speaker 2: They've won three in a row. 718 00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, Barcelona has been has been cooking as late. They 719 00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:50,440 Speaker 1: do have a one nil aggregate lead over Real Madrid. 720 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 1: Let's talk about that naturally quick because Barcelona, after they 721 00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 1: just played two weeks ago in or right for the 722 00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,560 Speaker 1: international break in La Liga, Barcelona sitting up one oh 723 00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:02,200 Speaker 1: eight Real Madrid a plus two to forty with the 724 00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:04,880 Speaker 1: draw sitting at plus two forty five. This is generally 725 00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:06,920 Speaker 1: the same price that they were two weeks ago, and 726 00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 1: they won that match to one. It was you know, 727 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 1: I thought, I a pready deserved Barcelona win. I have 728 00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,200 Speaker 1: them projected at plus one oh five, so I don't 729 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,400 Speaker 1: I don't really see much value on it. You know, 730 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:20,680 Speaker 1: over under is sitting pretty much priced at you know, 731 00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:24,359 Speaker 1: minus won ten both ways, so I think it's just 732 00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,520 Speaker 1: generally fairly priced, just like it was two weeks ago. 733 00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:28,400 Speaker 1: Do you have anything for Barsa Real Madrid. 734 00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:30,799 Speaker 2: Though, Yeah, I mean I bet the over two weeks ago. Uh, 735 00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,239 Speaker 2: And I still do like the over here a little bit, 736 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,400 Speaker 2: not as much in the Cup match, just because you know, 737 00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,799 Speaker 2: we saw Barsa. So the first leg last month, Real 738 00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:41,920 Speaker 2: is minus one ten at home, you flip it now 739 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:43,719 Speaker 2: it's Barsa. I project Barsa a little bit more of 740 00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 2: a favorite too. I have them like minus one o eight. 741 00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:50,480 Speaker 2: But Barsia when it was a very conservative approach, they 742 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:52,719 Speaker 2: didn't even really want the ball. They didn't even have Levenoski. 743 00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:56,000 Speaker 2: They played fran Torres as the loan striker, basically sat 744 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,120 Speaker 2: extremely deep. And so let's just get the point. Now 745 00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,320 Speaker 2: they come home, Real has to go for it. I 746 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:01,960 Speaker 2: think they're gonna have more of the ball again, just 747 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 2: because of the game state. I think that Barsla could 748 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:06,880 Speaker 2: just defend and try to shut it down. This bars 749 00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:11,440 Speaker 2: of defense is run like gods all year, and Real's 750 00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:15,600 Speaker 2: transition defense remains flawed. So yeah, I see the case 751 00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:17,879 Speaker 2: for the over. Probably ended up sitting this one out. 752 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:19,320 Speaker 2: But if you had to bet it, it would be 753 00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:20,799 Speaker 2: the over again for me. I mean, I gu said 754 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,480 Speaker 2: I bet it. Two weeks ago there were over two 755 00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:25,120 Speaker 2: point nine I think XG and it was a very 756 00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:28,040 Speaker 2: controversial bar that went off that screwed it as well. 757 00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,920 Speaker 2: But it was a clear over and I would look 758 00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:32,440 Speaker 2: that way again. 759 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,280 Speaker 1: Well. The other semi final match is what I'm actually 760 00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:41,360 Speaker 1: very intrigued by bill Bao and Osasuna. I mean, I 761 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,440 Speaker 1: love both teams to score no. Minus one forty eight. 762 00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:47,000 Speaker 1: I mean, there's just no reason that a both teams 763 00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,840 Speaker 1: to score no should be sitting below minus one fifty 764 00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:54,480 Speaker 1: and a match between these two teams. Osasuna has created 765 00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:59,760 Speaker 1: over one expected goal in one match since November eighth 766 00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:01,080 Speaker 1: of twenty twenty two. 767 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:02,719 Speaker 3: It's been that bad. 768 00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,040 Speaker 1: Offensively, they have not scored for four matches. The last 769 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:09,600 Speaker 1: time they scored was in the first leg against bill. 770 00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:10,439 Speaker 3: Bao at home. 771 00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,080 Speaker 1: They won the match one nothing despite creating around er 772 00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:18,600 Speaker 1: point seven expect goals. These are two of the best 773 00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:22,040 Speaker 1: defenses in the Premier excuse me in La Liga at 774 00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,360 Speaker 1: preventing you from getting into the penalty area. You know, 775 00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:27,160 Speaker 1: as soon as defense has regressed a tad bit, you know, 776 00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:30,040 Speaker 1: they've considered over one expected goal to Vigo, Valencia and 777 00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:33,120 Speaker 1: via Real as of late, but they have one nil 778 00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,799 Speaker 1: aggregate lead, so it's very it's gonna be a very 779 00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,440 Speaker 1: very defensive approach. They're just gonna defend their penalty area. 780 00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,759 Speaker 1: They are top five in La Liga in penalty in 781 00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:46,440 Speaker 1: final third to penalty box conversion rate so allowed. So 782 00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:49,680 Speaker 1: you know, Bill bow Is obviously in amazing offense. They're 783 00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,640 Speaker 1: very very good in counter attacking opportunities, but asking them 784 00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:55,440 Speaker 1: to have the ball control a ton of possession against 785 00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,000 Speaker 1: the Sosa Sooner team not really what they want to do. 786 00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,719 Speaker 1: So given how bad ooston Is off has been and 787 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:02,440 Speaker 1: the fact that there, it's gonna be a very very 788 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,279 Speaker 1: passive approach for them. And even if they can seede, 789 00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,399 Speaker 1: I mean, the game plan doesn't change at all. They're 790 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,400 Speaker 1: gonna have to concede two before they actually come out 791 00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:12,000 Speaker 1: of their low block and actually try to get forward 792 00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,239 Speaker 1: and actually you know, put this game away. So giving 793 00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,560 Speaker 1: how bad that offensive performances have ben I think both 794 00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,520 Speaker 1: teams have scored now at minus one forty eight is 795 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,719 Speaker 1: far far too low. Should be probably around minus one 796 00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:26,160 Speaker 1: seventy five. All right, that'll do it. For this episode 797 00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:28,600 Speaker 1: of Wonder Goal. Thank you all for tuning in. We 798 00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,960 Speaker 1: will all three of us will be back on Wednesday 799 00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:36,600 Speaker 1: along with Eric Winalda to preview the weekend slate. As always, 800 00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:39,080 Speaker 1: rate at five stars. Tell us how much we suck. 801 00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:40,879 Speaker 1: I don't care. Please give us a five star review. 802 00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:44,120 Speaker 1: It really goes a long way for us. And good 803 00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,680 Speaker 1: luck with your wagers in the midweek. We'll see you 804 00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:52,800 Speaker 1: all on Thursday. 805 00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:59,279 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 806 00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:02,080 Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 807 00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:05,200 Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler