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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: A single best idea with a bonus today. We do

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Speaker 2: that on a Friday. We do that after an exhausting week.

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Speaker 2: Our team just a great set of guests. I think

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Speaker 2: not every day, but maybe two of the five days

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Speaker 2: this week we blew up the show not once, but twice,

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Speaker 2: just trying to keep up with the news flow. So

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Speaker 2: what we've got here, I'm gonna be as quick as

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Speaker 2: I can because we've got a bonus round at the end,

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Speaker 2: and that is the idea of the debate of the

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Speaker 2: Fed into the May one meeting. Michael McKee in the

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Speaker 2: front row at the FED meeting, we'll be doing the

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Speaker 2: Fed decides. Jonathan Fair, Lisa Bramwoitz, They let me darken

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Speaker 2: the door. That'll be fun, and we're gonna do that

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Speaker 2: on May one. But what we framed out this week

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Speaker 2: is a massive debate over should they raise rates, which

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Speaker 2: is an outlier lonely debate. Lindsay pigs on the other

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Speaker 2: day with single best idea or a lot of people

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Speaker 2: say saying, what are you waiting for? Cut rates? Franz

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Speaker 2: Latron was iconic at bear Stearn's wonderful career Tran Macro

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Speaker 2: Research and here is Francois Tron on the job market

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Speaker 2: in a Powell behind.

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Speaker 3: If you want it to be forward looking, you should.

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Speaker 3: You know, historically the trigger for the FED when inflation

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Speaker 3: is not an issue, and it hasn't been in almost

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Speaker 3: forty years, you know, is to look at the labor

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Speaker 3: market stats. I would say most leading indicators of employment

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Speaker 3: have turned at this point, and so telling you that

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Speaker 3: as you get into the second half of the year

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Speaker 3: the unemployment rate starts to take higher. I think that's

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Speaker 3: really going to put the FED to the test.

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Speaker 2: Just fascinating. Thank you to Lindsay Pigs against Steve Will

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Speaker 2: go in the other way. Look for that Apple podcast.

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Speaker 2: You can go back and look at our previous days

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Speaker 2: and it's like two minutes with Lindsay Pigs and it's

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Speaker 2: just brilliant where she's saying, look, they're not going to

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Speaker 2: do it, but they should. Race rates boys are different

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Speaker 2: from what we've heard from Francois Tron. You can hear

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Speaker 2: me on the tape. I'm gasping, I'm fighting it cold.

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Speaker 2: What can I say? There's like a fraud. It's the

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Speaker 2: end of April and there's a frost alert in New

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Speaker 2: York City last night, and I'm like, I'm waiting for spring.

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Speaker 2: It's out there, somewhere there.

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Speaker 4: It is the.

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Speaker 2: Obligatory cough, the obligatory focus this Sunday will be on Monday.

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Speaker 2: In Japan, it's unraveling. I don't want to get inflammatory,

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Speaker 2: but if you look at two standard deviations, you look

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Speaker 2: at the second derivative of dollar yen, which is the

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Speaker 2: major pair we look at, or you look at euro

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Speaker 2: yen somewhat secondary. And particularly if you look at yen

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Speaker 2: as compared to Pacific rim yen, sing dollar yang Philippines,

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Speaker 2: and of course particularly yen Chinese yuan, we are at

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Speaker 2: a stunning move of yen weakness off of and I'll

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Speaker 2: editorialize and say a failed Bank of Japan mof policy.

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Speaker 2: It'll be fascinating to see where this goes. You need

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Speaker 2: smart conversation from Rabobank Jane Foley.

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Speaker 4: Many people have said, well, look, you know this was

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Speaker 4: a Duvish Central Back meeting. I don't think that's right.

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Speaker 4: I don't think it was Duvish. For instance, we had

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Speaker 4: a statement in there suggesting that in the second half

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Speaker 4: of their forecast projection period, underlying inflation would be at

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Speaker 4: where they want it to be at two percent. That's

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Speaker 4: been the holy grail for decades. So we are achieving

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Speaker 4: or we are beginning to see what they wanted to see,

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Speaker 4: which is, you know, inflation coming back to where they

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Speaker 4: want it to be. That's fantastic for Japan. The problem

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Speaker 4: is it's has been a slow process and they certainly

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Speaker 4: don't want to hike too fars and put themselves back

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Speaker 4: at square one with inflation just being too low. And

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Speaker 4: this is the difficulty. It just wasn't hawkish enough for

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Speaker 4: the market.

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Speaker 2: Just a clinic from Jane Foley. It was on coordinated

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Speaker 2: versus non coordinated intervention. I don't think anybody sees a

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Speaker 2: coordinated effort here, which is usually more efficacious. And also

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Speaker 2: this it's a little inside baseball sterilized versus unsterilized intervention.

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Speaker 2: And she alluded to the idea of how lonely Japan

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Speaker 2: is is they make these decisions. And of course the

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Speaker 2: gift would be to see the FED moderate and bring

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Speaker 2: American interest rates down, and that would assist Japan. But

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Speaker 2: who says we're gonna do that. I mean, that's not

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Speaker 2: the way the program goes an audible. We do that

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Speaker 2: on single best idea. We particularly do it when we

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Speaker 2: get the message from Catherine Greifeld Greefeld she's out in

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Speaker 2: the woods somewhere.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: She's on a horse. Of course, maybe she's on Central Park.

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Speaker 2: She's like doing the horses around Central Park something like that. Anyways,

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Speaker 2: Katy Greefeld emails in and says, Tom, you fool. Nick

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Speaker 2: Coelis is from Haverford. So we've got Nick Colison, who's

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Speaker 2: like world class global and he's got like an Eastern

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Speaker 2: anthropology degree from Haverford. He we're birkenstocks before they remember

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Speaker 2: the clogs of wooden clogs with a little cloth. That's

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Speaker 2: what Nicholas used to wear at Haverford. And you know,

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Speaker 2: this is the time of year parents are having a

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Speaker 2: total complete cow over. You have to do a STEM

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Speaker 2: program or all that. How about just liberal arts. Here

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Speaker 2: is Nick Colis of Katie Greifeld's Haverford on the very

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Speaker 2: liberal arts.

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Speaker 1: Nothing wrong with stam let's just put that out there

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Speaker 1: right now. But liberal arts majors force you to learn

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Speaker 1: how to do two things. The first one is you

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Speaker 1: learn how to write. You learn how to put your

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Speaker 1: thoughts down on paper. In a way that's organized so

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Speaker 1: that other people can read it and understand what you're saying.

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Speaker 1: And then secondly, it gives you a real appreciation for

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Speaker 1: the scope of the human experience, whether that be in

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Speaker 1: history or philosophy, in any of those disciplines, it gives

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Speaker 1: you a much wider scope and understanding of what it

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Speaker 1: is to be human, and that's why they call it humanities.

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Speaker 2: I happen to agree, Nick Colis of Haverford There. Thank you,

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Speaker 2: Katie Greifield for that wonderful suggestion. It's been in a

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Speaker 2: stunning week by the team. Other way to put it

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Speaker 2: odd on Apple CarPlay, on Android play as well on

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Speaker 2: YouTube search, Bloomberg Podcast, and on Monday I'll have a

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Speaker 2: special announcement about what we're doing on YouTube. This is

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Speaker 2: single best idea.