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Speaker 3: We are following the breaking news we got less than
Speaker 3: an hour ago from Hamas, which says that it has
Speaker 3: accepted a ceasefire proposal put forward by mediators Cutter and Egypt.
Speaker 3: Hamas says the head of its poll up bureau informed
Speaker 3: Cutter's Prime Minister and Egypt's Minister of Intelligence that had
Speaker 3: agreed to the proposal that was put forward by the
Speaker 3: two countries. This is according to a statement on the
Speaker 3: group's telegram channel. We have yet, though, to hear from
Speaker 3: Israel as to whether or not they have in turn accepted,
Speaker 3: or from Cutter or Egypt for that matter. But of course,
Speaker 3: this follows a phone call that happened earlier today between
Speaker 3: President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister bb Net Yahoo, in
Speaker 3: which they discussed not only the efforts towards a c spire,
Speaker 3: but also questions around RAFA and a potential invasion which
Speaker 3: the US has been pushing against for more. Now we
Speaker 3: go to Michelle jem Risco, a Bloomberg White House reporter
Speaker 3: who was joining me here in our Washington, d C.
Speaker 4: Studio. So, Michelle, obviously we are still.
Speaker 3: A waiting confirmation from any of the other parties that
Speaker 3: have been involved in the ceasefire talks. What we do know, though,
Speaker 3: is that the administration has been pushing aggressively for an
Speaker 3: agreement like this to be reached, not just President Biden
Speaker 3: when speaking with Netanyahu earlier today, but Bill Burns, who
Speaker 3: has been in the region, the director of the CIA,
Speaker 3: and of course Secretary of State Anthony B. Lincoln was
Speaker 3: on his seventh trip to the Middle East just last week.
Speaker 5: That's right.
Speaker 1: It's been an all hands on deck approach, even more
Speaker 1: so in recent days, and we were getting vibes from
Speaker 1: the White House and others in the administration that things
Speaker 1: might be moving closer. So we have yet to see
Speaker 1: with this Hamas news. You know, that adds another layer
Speaker 1: of uncertainty as to whether that fits into the fast
Speaker 1: evolving developments here. But they did talk this morning that
Speaker 1: it was a multi you know, multifaceted call really, as
Speaker 1: they often are. Between those two leaders, and a lot
Speaker 1: of reading in between the lines and what they discussed.
Speaker 1: But we'll have to see, you know, when it concerns
Speaker 1: Holocaust Remembrance Day this week, when it concerns the Rafa
Speaker 1: operation that may or may not move forward, and we've
Speaker 1: seen tentative signs of that, the evacuation is certainly happening.
Speaker 1: When it concerns humanitarian aid, all these questions, those are
Speaker 1: certainly the topics that were forefront in this call.
Speaker 4: But you know, again a lot of fast moving developments here.
Speaker 4: Well on your point of Rafa.
Speaker 3: When we came in this morning, we thought the conversation
Speaker 3: would be having is that a ceasefire agreement was potentially
Speaker 3: even farther away rather than a closer given the stalling out.
Speaker 3: It seemed that talks experienced in Cairo over the weekend,
Speaker 3: and then to your point, Israeli Israeli military signaling to
Speaker 3: civilians in Rafa they needed to start moving out of
Speaker 3: parts of the city which could have laid the groundwork
Speaker 3: for that ground operation. What we know that the administration,
Speaker 3: the Biden administration, is vary against that. They have said
Speaker 3: as much publicly on many occasions. Is Prime Minister Netanyahu
Speaker 3: in a position now where if he were not to
Speaker 3: agree in turn to a ceasefire agreement that Hamas has
Speaker 3: agreed to, that he would be in serious trouble with
Speaker 3: this White House.
Speaker 1: Well, it's very interesting because there's a lot of diplomatic
Speaker 1: games that might be at work here as well. And
Speaker 1: we don't know. I mean, you use the word signaling,
Speaker 1: which I think is appropriate at this point in time.
Speaker 3: They did.
Speaker 1: We do know that the Israeli military has signaled for
Speaker 1: some evacuation of Rafa, not a full evacuation of those
Speaker 1: member of those civilians there, but at least in part.
Speaker 4: And we do know that's moving forward.
Speaker 1: Now, we don't know how long that would take, what
Speaker 1: the ground offensive would look like if it does move forward,
Speaker 1: and what it's connected to, what the purpose is there.
Speaker 1: But as you mentioned, that does create another wrinkle in
Speaker 1: Prime Minister Netnyahu's strategy. If Hamas has agreed to this deal,
Speaker 1: he's going to have to figure out do you move
Speaker 1: forward and do you move forward with the sort of
Speaker 1: purpose that he originally intended for this sort of operation,
Speaker 1: But certainly, as you mentioned, not supported by the US
Speaker 1: in its full form.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I wonder what we'll hear from President Biden
Speaker 3: about this tomorrow when he's planned to give a big
Speaker 3: speech it was announced last week and Holocaust Rememberance Day
Speaker 3: it will be tomorrow Tuesday on Capitol Hill. After he
Speaker 3: spoke from the White House last week about what we're
Speaker 3: seeing on campus protest. How would we expect that the
Speaker 3: tenor of that speech would change if a ceasefire agreement
Speaker 3: is actually in place before the President gives that address.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it certainly makes it much more complicated.
Speaker 1: I mean, this week was already pretty tricky in terms
Speaker 1: of messaging with the Holocaust Rememberance Day. Of course, the
Speaker 1: Biden administration has been, you know, at this tricky position
Speaker 1: to balance a lot of different things. They certainly want
Speaker 1: to hammer home the message that their commitment to Israel
Speaker 1: security is ironclad, as they've been saying and as the
Speaker 1: President himself has said, and they want to hammer home
Speaker 1: the message of being fully in support of, you know,
Speaker 1: observing Holocaust Remembrance Day, remembering what it's for, and backing
Speaker 1: those who are fighting anti Semitism, as well as what
Speaker 1: they say is other hate field speech, you know, to
Speaker 1: speak to these other issues campus protests and everything.
Speaker 4: But at the same.
Speaker 1: Time, they want to make fully clear that, and they
Speaker 1: have in certain ways that you know, US policy could
Speaker 1: change if the Rapa offensive moves forward. So we're going
Speaker 1: to have to see how these developments affect the tone
Speaker 1: and tenor, as you say, of the president speech tomorrow.
Speaker 3: But all said domestically, when considering the domestic layout for
Speaker 3: President Biden, let alone what this would mean for Palestinian civilians,
Speaker 3: for the families of hostages, for the hostages themselves, of
Speaker 3: a ceasefire agreement were.
Speaker 4: To be reached.
Speaker 3: If this were to be confirmed by Israel, it could
Speaker 3: potentially alleviate some of the pressure here on President Biden
Speaker 3: here at home with Arab American Muslim voters, young voters
Speaker 3: who have been so dissatisfied with the way this administration
Speaker 3: has approached this conflict.
Speaker 4: Yes, that's right, and we do have a word.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's some other reporting and the axios and
Speaker 1: others talking about, you know, the possibility of an ammunition
Speaker 1: shipment being delayed from US to Israel, which would be
Speaker 1: if it is true, I mean, that would be a
Speaker 1: big sign of some sort of change in a long
Speaker 1: running policy of continue to support militarily Israel and its
Speaker 1: fight against Hamas, and we have as you know, as
Speaker 1: I mentioned, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, among others,
Speaker 1: has said, you know, if this RAFA operation moves forward,
Speaker 1: which it looks like in some format, might then you know,
Speaker 1: we will tweak our policy in some way.
Speaker 4: We don't know what that looks like, and maybe this
Speaker 4: is part of it.
Speaker 1: But you know, again a lot of moving parts, and
Speaker 1: we see the ceasefied deal maybe on, maybe off, but
Speaker 1: you know that also has an influence here in terms
Speaker 1: of both the diplomatic side as well as the military side.
Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg's Michelle Jamrisco, who covers the White House
Speaker 3: for US, thank you so much for joining us again.
Speaker 3: What we're dealing with here is Hamas, which says that
Speaker 3: it has accepted the ceasefire agreement.
Speaker 4: Put forward by Egypt and Cutter.
Speaker 3: We have not yet heard word from Israel on this matter,
Speaker 3: so of course we'll keep you updated if and when
Speaker 3: we do. But we turn now to another expert on
Speaker 3: this region, Aaron David Miller, I'm pleased to say is
Speaker 3: joining us. He is a senior fellow at the Carnegie
Speaker 3: Endowment for International Peace. It's always great to have you
Speaker 3: here on Bloomberg Television and Radio erin. Obviously, we are
Speaker 3: still awaiting confirmation from Israel that the ceasefire agreement has
Speaker 3: been reached. Would it surprise you if it had, considering
Speaker 3: the rhetoric, the developments that we had gotten out of
Speaker 3: this region just in the last forty eight hours.
Speaker 6: Not really. I guess it's a question of urgency.
Speaker 7: I think as of this morning, I concluded that there
Speaker 7: is insuvision urgency and the part of Hamas and the
Speaker 7: Israelis to sign anything. And the urgency that really existed
Speaker 7: was only on the part of the Bibe administration. Understand,
Speaker 7: I mean, I think we have to be very sober
Speaker 7: here though. Number one, we have to wait for an
Speaker 7: Israeli response, and number two, the quote unquote proposal ceasefire
Speaker 7: agreement has been reported in many places, in many different forms.
Speaker 7: I would suspect that what if, in fact Hamas has
Speaker 7: agreed to anything and expects the Israelis to agree, it
Speaker 7: would be to.
Speaker 6: A phase one that it was, that is to say,
Speaker 6: the exchange of.
Speaker 5: Thirty three.
Speaker 7: Women the elderly in the infirm in exchanged for an
Speaker 7: asymmetrical number of Palestinian prisoners, as much as seven hundred
Speaker 7: or one thousand, one hundred of whom have you been
Speaker 7: accused of or convicted of killing Israelis?
Speaker 6: And a forty day That was the number mentioned.
Speaker 7: In one of the reports, a forty day temporary sees fired.
Speaker 7: What had blocked the negotiation so far is that the
Speaker 7: Israelis one of the issues. The Reels had not accepted
Speaker 7: amasa's demand that this Phase one basically produce a comprehensive
Speaker 7: seats fired and with throw all of Israeli forces from Godsam,
Speaker 7: essentially an end to the war. So it's not clear
Speaker 7: to me whether or not AMAS has accepted. When they
Speaker 7: say they've accepted the Egyptian cuttery proposal, is this the
Speaker 7: broader proposal for three phases to actually end the war,
Speaker 7: or is it Phase one, which is the more limited exchange.
Speaker 6: So I think the good news here is.
Speaker 7: That it could preempt any sort of significant Israeli ground campaign.
Speaker 7: It would result in freedom for the hostages, women in
Speaker 7: particular who are being abused, and a temporary cease fire,
Speaker 7: cessation of hostilities, along with the redeployment of Israeli forces
Speaker 7: from certain areas of Gosm and an end to Israeli
Speaker 7: overflights during the hours where this hostage exchange for prisoners
Speaker 7: is going to take place.
Speaker 6: And remember, I would bet.
Speaker 7: That it will be a few weeks, maybe not that
Speaker 7: long before implementation of phase one could take place, given
Speaker 7: the complexity that surrounded the You remember the initial exchange
Speaker 7: if one hundred and two hostages for four hundred Palestinian
Speaker 7: prisoners in mid November.
Speaker 6: A lot we don't know.
Speaker 7: And you know, there's also the dead cat on your
Speaker 7: doorstep theory, which is that Hamas is accepted, trying to
Speaker 7: put the ball in Israel's court and now leaving Benjamin
Speaker 7: Nataniel with the decision whether to agree or not. President's
Speaker 7: phone call this morning clearly they discussed this issue. And
Speaker 7: since Bill Burns is in Doha.
Speaker 6: And Cutter SEEI director, I think this is probably more
Speaker 6: more real than not real.
Speaker 3: Okay, And to your point, there are still a lot
Speaker 3: of details we don't know. The statement that we got
Speaker 3: from Hamas did not provide further details on what exactly
Speaker 3: this deal would look like, what it all entails, and
Speaker 3: we still have not gotten word from Israel. But Erin,
Speaker 3: it's worth kind of going back to that point you
Speaker 3: were just making about. Now it kind of does put
Speaker 3: the ball in bibing at in Yahu's court. If Hamas says, okay,
Speaker 3: we agree, what kind of position is he in if
Speaker 3: he does not do so in return, not just geopolitically,
Speaker 3: in terms of the consequence he could face from a
Speaker 3: Biden administration that might be very unhappy with that decision,
Speaker 3: but also domestically, knowing the great deal of pressure that
Speaker 3: he is under at home.
Speaker 7: Yeah, well, I think you know, to quote the president,
Speaker 7: here's the deal. Secretary of State Blinkett described the Israeli
Speaker 7: proposal last week as quote extremely generous unquote, thereby I
Speaker 7: think locking the administration in to whatever the Prime Minister
Speaker 7: was prepared to agree to that over the last ten
Speaker 7: days Hamas had rejected. So if in fact Hamas's agreement
Speaker 7: puts on the table new conditions and they expect the
Speaker 7: Americans to press the Israelis hard, the bid administration is
Speaker 7: going to have a tougher time having praised N'tagnao's initial off.
Speaker 7: So this is what I mean by this sort of
Speaker 7: diplomatic gamesmanship one upsmanship that's circulating here. But I suspect,
Speaker 7: given the fact that the President had a conversation with
Speaker 7: the Prime Minister in the last several hours, the fact
Speaker 7: that CI Director Burns has been in Cairo and Doha
Speaker 7: managing all of this. He knows what's in that deal,
Speaker 7: and I suspect he'll be able to give the administration
Speaker 7: a pretty accurate read as to what to expect from
Speaker 7: the Israelis. I wouldn't imagine under these circumstances. If Hamasa's
Speaker 7: acceptance is real and if it applies to what the
Speaker 7: Israelis had agreed to, then I think chances are you'll
Speaker 7: see you'll see moved to the next phase, which will
Speaker 7: be the preparation for implementation of phase one. On the
Speaker 7: other hand, if Hamas has put stuff on the table
Speaker 7: and the administration thinks it's reasonable and realistic that you know,
Speaker 7: had not agreed, then you may see some friction. Yeah.
Speaker 3: Well, it's worth pointing out that in the statement that
Speaker 3: Hamas posted on telegram, they said they were accepting a
Speaker 3: proposal put forward by the two countries of Cutter and Egypt,
Speaker 3: not Israel. So I wonder if there is maybe a
Speaker 3: difference in what the administration was talking about versus what
Speaker 3: Hamas says it's agreeing to.
Speaker 4: Today.
Speaker 3: Again, we're still awaiting details just finally, Aerin, given that
Speaker 3: you were suggesting that this may take weeks to actually implement,
Speaker 3: is there's still a chance in your mind in our
Speaker 3: final minute with you, that Israel could move into Rafa
Speaker 3: in the interim, as they have already signaled to civilians
Speaker 3: there they should begin moving out.
Speaker 7: No, well, no, if in fact Hamas has accepted a
Speaker 7: creditble proposal that's within the Israeli ballpark, I think the
Speaker 7: odds that the Israelis are moving too ratha under those
Speaker 7: circumstances to jettison a deal on which the administration has
Speaker 7: banked almost everything Kirby had meant the other day, there's
Speaker 7: no plan B. President wants to change the pictures of Gaza,
Speaker 7: free to ostages, surge your manditarian assistance, and try to
Speaker 7: manage the domestic political fallout from accusations that he's mismanaged
Speaker 7: this war, unhappy with progressives, and the Israelis jettison well,
Speaker 7: I think you can draw your own conclusions what might
Speaker 7: happen as a consequence.
Speaker 3: All right, Aaron, It's always great to have you on
Speaker 3: balance of power, but especially on a daylight today with
Speaker 3: this developing news.
Speaker 4: Thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 3: Aaron, David Miller, of course, as a senior fellow at
Speaker 3: the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and I would remind
Speaker 3: our listeners and viewers what we have right now as
Speaker 3: a statement from Hamas that it has accepted a ceasefire
Speaker 3: proposal put forward by.
Speaker 4: Cutter and Egypt.
Speaker 3: We have not yet heard from either of those two countries,
Speaker 3: nor have we heard from Israel as to whether it
Speaker 3: has accepted this agreement. In turn, so we will continue
Speaker 3: to keep you a prize here on Bloomberg Television and radio,
Speaker 3: and we'll have much more.
Speaker 4: Coming up in just a few minutes. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 3: We are dealing with some breaking news. Hamas has said
Speaker 3: that it is accepting a ceasefire proposal that has been
Speaker 3: put forward by Mediator's Cutter and Egypt. This is according
Speaker 3: to a statement that was put on the group's telegram channel.
Speaker 3: We have not yet though heard fir a word from Israel.
Speaker 3: Channel twelve now reporting, according to a headline crossing the
Speaker 3: Bloomberg terminal, that Israel is studying this updated ceasefire proposal.
Speaker 3: Remember Hamas has said here, it accepted a proposal put
Speaker 3: forward by two other countries, Cutter and Egypt, not necessarily
Speaker 3: the same as the Israeli proposal that we heard about
Speaker 3: from the Biden administration last week when Secretary of Saint
Speaker 3: Anthony Blincoln called Israel's proposal generous. We do not have
Speaker 3: details on what exactly this all may entail, and again
Speaker 3: no confirmation.
Speaker 4: Yet from the other parties involved.
Speaker 3: We want to turn now to Genie Shanze Noo, Bloomberg
Speaker 3: Politics contributor in Chape and Fay Republican Strategists and managing
Speaker 3: director at ACTAM. Thank you both for being here, Genie,
Speaker 3: while we wait for a firm confirmation of this news.
Speaker 3: Of course, it does have great political weight on President
Speaker 3: Biden domestically, especially ahead of a speech on anti Semitism
Speaker 3: he is set to give tomorrow on Holocaust Remembrance Day.
Speaker 3: What do you just make of the timing of all
Speaker 3: of this news colliding simultaneously ahead of a big address
Speaker 3: like that on the day that Columbia University announced its
Speaker 3: main commencement ceremony is not happening because of protests there.
Speaker 3: It is a very complex picture, both at home and abroad.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean it is fascinating because we're less than
Speaker 8: twenty four hours away from the President's speech for Holocaust
Speaker 8: Remembrance Day, and the idea that we could also be
Speaker 8: within sight. Perhaps as you keep talking about, of a
Speaker 8: cease fire, temporary, I may be permanent, might change the
Speaker 8: trajectory of what the President has to say tomorrow. So
Speaker 8: very very tough for the White House to manage all
Speaker 8: of this, But I do think that the best case scenario,
Speaker 8: not just for Joe Biden politically, but more importantly for
Speaker 8: everybody involved, including and especially the hostages, there would be
Speaker 8: a cease fire. But I think we have to be
Speaker 8: very very cautious on all of this because we still
Speaker 8: haven't gotten confirmation, and of course we know Israel was
Speaker 8: on the brink of moving into RAFA, and of course
Speaker 8: if Hamas put any conditions on this, I think that
Speaker 8: that could blow the entire thing up. So I think
Speaker 8: we have a lot more questions here, and that does
Speaker 8: make the White House's job a little more difficult as
Speaker 8: they're looking at this big speech tomorrow for the president.
Speaker 3: Well, another headline just crossing the Bloomberg terminal. The President
Speaker 3: of Turkey, Regip Type Erdawan, says that Turkey welcomes Samasa's
Speaker 3: move to accept the ceasefire. Again, though that's from Turkey,
Speaker 3: not from Cutter, Egypt or Israe, the three countries that
Speaker 3: we are awaiting a firm word from chape And just
Speaker 3: to bring you in here, of course, this is happening
Speaker 3: roughly seven months into the war between Israel and Hamas
Speaker 3: and now less than six months ahead of an election
Speaker 3: in November. To what extent do you expect this issue,
Speaker 3: what is happening in the Middle East, the conduct an
Speaker 3: approach to the relationship with Israel is going to factor
Speaker 3: into who ultimately wins the presidency come November.
Speaker 9: Well, I will qualify this with six months in politics
Speaker 9: as sort of a lifetime, and with the way that
Speaker 9: things shore so rapidly in today's day and age, I
Speaker 9: think there is a chance that this is in everyone's
Speaker 9: There is a chance that this is at everyone at
Speaker 9: least in America politics review.
Speaker 5: Some people are in an America Poltice review window.
Speaker 9: Of course, it will not be for the people going
Speaker 9: through it and released, so I do think there will
Speaker 9: be a lessening of it. I think now is probably
Speaker 9: in retrospect, might be a huge inflection point.
Speaker 5: Right the President's going to give his speech, there.
Speaker 9: Are talks of cease fires, so it is like Ginny said,
Speaker 9: is you know, it does put him in a harder
Speaker 9: position as he's trying to give this speech and navigate
Speaker 9: the internal domestic politics. But it's a great opportunity for
Speaker 9: him to get out there talk about the anti Semitism
Speaker 9: problem that's happening across the country. He'll be able to,
Speaker 9: you know, as presidents usually do, scold Israel a little bit,
Speaker 9: show some support from Palacinian people, and see if he
Speaker 9: can sort of thread that very careful needle on his
Speaker 9: side of the aisle, which which in my view is
Speaker 9: a little bit fractured on you know, support for Israel
Speaker 9: or the Palestadians or Kasa or whatever is happening on
Speaker 9: college campuses these days. So I do think it's it's
Speaker 9: all colored by that, and I do think he has
Speaker 9: a huge opportunity, and of course it will be under
Speaker 9: the shadow of whether there is actually a ceasefire or not.
Speaker 9: It would be great for the President to be able
Speaker 9: to stand up there after a ceasefire at least in
Speaker 9: principle or at least has been announced that they're you know.
Speaker 5: Close to one.
Speaker 9: That would be I think a good backdrop for his
Speaker 9: speech to sort of head out of this and into
Speaker 9: the summer months when economy, gas prices inflation, as people
Speaker 9: leave college campuses right and go home, students go home,
Speaker 9: that will wane right in time to convene them to
Speaker 9: convene two months before the election again after at the
Speaker 9: end of the summer, but we'll see what the state
Speaker 9: of the world is at that point.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Well, time is a weird thing in politics shape and
Speaker 3: your point is very well taken. Six months is basically
Speaker 3: a lifetime. So I will say what I'm about to
Speaker 3: say with that caveat that there's only so much polls
Speaker 3: can tell you, surely six months out. But I do
Speaker 3: want to point out a few polls that we have
Speaker 3: gotten over the weekend, one being ABC and IPSOS doing
Speaker 3: some polling on the general election contest between President Biden
Speaker 3: and former President Trump. Basically shows they're locked in a
Speaker 3: tight race. We all know that excluding people who say
Speaker 3: they wouldn't vote, Trump is winning forty six to forty four.
Speaker 3: When you narrow it though to registered voters and then
Speaker 3: likely voters, Biden forty nine, Trump forty five. So once
Speaker 3: you get to those who are at actually likely to
Speaker 3: turn out at the ballot box, Genie Biden is ahead.
Speaker 3: Does that just underscore that all of this is ultimately
Speaker 3: going to be at the end of the day about turnout.
Speaker 8: It will, And of course, you know, I'm so glad
Speaker 8: you mentioned the screening. That's critically important. You need to
Speaker 8: look at likely voters to get a really good sense.
Speaker 8: But of course, the other issue here is we're talking
Speaker 8: national polls versus Bloomberg's poll, which is a you know,
Speaker 8: the critical state that we look at, and those key
Speaker 8: states are going to decide this election. So the national
Speaker 8: polls are obviously fascinating. I love to look at them,
Speaker 8: but the real question of a winner and a loser
Speaker 8: here is going to come on those states, you know,
Speaker 8: those seven critical states. Although Trump's team wants to add
Speaker 8: Minnesota and Virginia, we understand over the weekend, I don't
Speaker 8: know that they deserve to be there. That's the other
Speaker 8: complication here. But the poll was fascinating because it did
Speaker 8: show obviously, you know, it is a neck and neck race,
Speaker 8: and Joe Biden's challenges remain in the demographics young people,
Speaker 8: African Americans. You know that it is a critical challenge
Speaker 8: for him. This has to be a referendum on Donald
Speaker 8: Trump for him to win, and vice versa for you know,
Speaker 8: Joe Biden.
Speaker 6: For Donald Trump to.
Speaker 8: Win, it has to be a referendum on Joe Biden.
Speaker 8: They are both incredibly unpopular.
Speaker 3: Well, Jeanie teeing me up perfectly for the next question
Speaker 3: I wanted to ask chapin, which is are we only
Speaker 3: really talking about seven swing states or should we be
Speaker 3: talking about nine. Trump's team says their polling suggests that
Speaker 3: Minnesota and Virginia are in play.
Speaker 4: Chap and you buy it.
Speaker 5: Sure, I'll buy it. You know, like you said, it's
Speaker 5: six months out.
Speaker 9: Maybe you know this this game and the map will change,
Speaker 9: expand and shrink on both sides. I'd love to see
Speaker 9: a time lapse of you know, internal strategies, you know,
Speaker 9: electoral maps in each campaign office and see.
Speaker 5: How they move and shift over the days.
Speaker 9: I do think there will be some wild cards, as always,
Speaker 9: you know, a state like Virginia may pop at the
Speaker 9: end for Trump, you know, six.
Speaker 5: Months from now. Who knows the point.
Speaker 9: I would everything you guys have said so far I
Speaker 9: think is true. I think the elector to shrinking. And
Speaker 9: what I mean by that is the persuadable, the persuadables, right.
Speaker 9: I think Axios this morning or last night had an
Speaker 9: article about how both campaigns are saying the persuadables in
Speaker 9: these seven swing states or however many you want to
Speaker 9: call it is all less than ten percent. So they're
Speaker 9: fighting for not only these few states, they're fighting for
Speaker 9: less than ten percent in each of these states as
Speaker 9: persuadable voters. So to sort of circle back, it is
Speaker 9: going to be incredibly important for their basis to be
Speaker 9: energized and out and voting in full force to sort of,
Speaker 9: you know, counteract the referendum on each particular candidate, which
Speaker 9: this is turning out to be. And no one should
Speaker 9: be surprised by this because you know, Donald Trump and
Speaker 9: Joe Biden's name recognition, you know, nobody does. It is
Speaker 9: not I don't think anyone in this election is because
Speaker 9: they have to read more about each candidate and figure
Speaker 9: out who I'm voting right, that's less than ten percent
Speaker 9: that we're talking about. Everyone else knows these people and
Speaker 9: has an opinion already, which is the difficulty.
Speaker 5: Then you have to get those people to vote.
Speaker 4: Yeah, very true.
Speaker 3: And when talking about the demographics and the makeup of
Speaker 3: the Democratic base specifically, Genie, some other polling I wanted
Speaker 3: to point to Washington Post and IPSOS a poll of
Speaker 3: war than thirteen hundred Black adults finds only sixty two
Speaker 3: percent of them say they're absolutely certain to vote. That
Speaker 3: is down twelve points from the seventy four percent who
Speaker 3: said so in twenty twenty. And the drop and turnout
Speaker 3: interest is sharpest among younger Black people. How is the
Speaker 3: Biden campaign likely to look at this polling, Genie.
Speaker 8: This is devastating for the Bret Biden team. You know,
Speaker 8: they've got a money and time advantage right now. If
Speaker 8: anything puts lights of fire under them, it should be
Speaker 8: those numbers you just read. Joe Biden got eighty four
Speaker 8: percent of African Americans in twenty twenty. He had them
Speaker 8: by big numbers Africa Americans, younger African Americans in twenty twenty.
Speaker 8: To lose that is devastating for the campaign. So They've
Speaker 8: got to use the time and the money they have
Speaker 8: while Donald Trump is in court with this fundraising advantage
Speaker 8: to appeal to that demographic in these swing and I
Speaker 8: don't care if we call them seven or nine states.
Speaker 8: They've got to go on the air and they've got
Speaker 8: to talk about what a Donald Trump presidency means for
Speaker 8: these people. They've got to remind people the impact on healthcare,
Speaker 8: the impact on reproduction, the impact on the Supreme Court,
Speaker 8: the impact on freedom and liberty, all of those things
Speaker 8: that Joe Biden can, you know, look at these polls
Speaker 8: and say people give them a slight advantage, including in
Speaker 8: the ABC Bowl, in terms of character. That's the only
Speaker 8: way they can do it, and it's going to be
Speaker 8: an uphill battle. These are really difficult numbers with the
Speaker 8: African American and young community.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Another figure from this poll, nearly one in five black
Speaker 3: voters who turned out for Biden in twenty twenty say
Speaker 3: they are less than certain about whether they will vote
Speaker 3: at all this year. Jeanie Shanzno Bloomberg Politics contributor in
Speaker 3: Shape and Fay actim managing director and Republican strategist our
Speaker 3: political panel today, thank you so much for joining me.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then
Speaker 2: Freud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg Television and Radio.
Speaker 3: Or of course, we're keeping an eye on all of
Speaker 3: the happenings here in Washington, but we also have to
Speaker 3: keep an eye on what's happening in New York today,
Speaker 3: as it's a new week in Donald Trump's criminal hush
Speaker 3: money trial, the proceedings kicking off today with him being
Speaker 3: found in contempt of court again for another instance of
Speaker 3: violating the gag order that he has been placed under
Speaker 3: in this case, and find another one thousand dollars for
Speaker 3: that violation. It brings the total finds up to ten
Speaker 3: thousand dollars after he was charged with nine different counts
Speaker 3: of that found in contempt of court for nine different
Speaker 3: instances last week. The thing is he's a billionaire, at
Speaker 3: least on paper, and the judge seems to recognize that.
Speaker 3: He said today in court when handing down this order
Speaker 3: that he fears that a thousand dollars finds are not
Speaker 3: acting as a deterrent, and he threatened to actually put
Speaker 3: the former president in jail, although he did emphasize that
Speaker 3: he is reluctant to do so might be a last resort.
Speaker 3: Is there are a number of complicating factors that would be
Speaker 3: involved in that, including the fact that his former president
Speaker 3: he is entitled to Secret Service protection. Would make the
Speaker 3: whole thing very logistically complicated. So we want to get
Speaker 3: more now with Josh Naftalis. He is a partner at
Speaker 3: Palace Partners, also a former federal prosecutor, was the assistant
Speaker 3: attorney at the Southern District of New York. Thank you
Speaker 3: so much for being here. On balance of power, Josh,
Speaker 3: how likely is it in your mind that Donald Trump
Speaker 3: may actually end up spending some time in jail for
Speaker 3: violating this gag order?
Speaker 10: Thanks for having me. As you said, the judge is
Speaker 10: trying to avoid that at all costs, which makes sense.
Speaker 10: He doesn't want to disrupt the trial, and obviously logistically
Speaker 10: it's a nightmare for the Secret Service. So I think
Speaker 10: the judge is keeping it out there as an option,
Speaker 10: but we're not.
Speaker 6: There yet obviously.
Speaker 3: Well, when you say it would disrupt the trial. Can
Speaker 3: you just shed some light as to what realistically we're
Speaker 3: talking about. It was pointed out to me earlier today
Speaker 3: by one of our legal editors here at Bloomberg that
Speaker 3: is a frequent occurrence that a defendant is brought in
Speaker 3: from jail to attend court trial proceedings. How disruptive would
Speaker 3: it be? Would it just be it lengthens the time
Speaker 3: of the trial. Would it have to be put on
Speaker 3: pause for some period of time? What realistically are we
Speaker 3: talking about?
Speaker 10: I think both of those issues our potential complications. It
Speaker 10: could delay the trial because there's I would imagine the
Speaker 10: Secret Service would have to adjust and set up a
Speaker 10: protocol to bringing mister Trump to and from court and
Speaker 10: how he would be held overnight. That's just you know,
Speaker 10: secret Service one on one. There's also then the delay
Speaker 10: that would impact the trial and the worry of telling
Speaker 10: the jurors potentially the president had been remanded into custody.
Speaker 10: And then there's also the appellate issues that this creates.
Speaker 10: I imagine Donald Trump and his lawyers would argue this
Speaker 10: is interfering with his defense, that he's no longer able
Speaker 10: to properly prepare, so all.
Speaker 6: Of these delays.
Speaker 10: Again, you know, as a government prosecutor, you don't want
Speaker 10: delays in your trial. You want the evidence to come
Speaker 10: in and get to the verdict. You don't want to
Speaker 10: risk losing your jury or have appellate issues get raised.
Speaker 4: Fair enough.
Speaker 3: And of course it is the aim of protecting not
Speaker 3: just potential witnesses or likely witnesses in the case, but
Speaker 3: also members of the jury that this gag order is
Speaker 3: designed for. Right, Can you just speak to why this
Speaker 3: is so important that a judge might actually be willing,
Speaker 3: if not super reluctantly, to throw a former president in
Speaker 3: jail because of it. Why is this so consequential that
Speaker 3: incarceration could be justified?
Speaker 10: Sure so, I mean, it's the judge's courtroom. He sets
Speaker 10: the rules, and what mister Trump is doing is he's
Speaker 10: flouting those rules, including to try to intimidate witnesses or
Speaker 10: get his narrative out there or such that maybe jurors
Speaker 10: would learn about it. But in the end, it's the
Speaker 10: idea that he deserves a fair trial, but so does
Speaker 10: the government. He's not allowed to speak outside of the
Speaker 10: walls of the courtroom and try to get things in
Speaker 10: front of the jury or just at large to disrupt
Speaker 10: the witnesses, and that's just how trials are run.
Speaker 3: Fair enough, and of course trials are also run with
Speaker 3: witnesses taking the stand and giving testimony, which we are
Speaker 3: continue continuing to see today Today was not just about
Speaker 3: a gag order violation of the actual testimony. We've heard
Speaker 3: so far from everyone from a former White House aid
Speaker 3: Hope Hicks to David Pecker, formerly of the National Inquirer.
Speaker 3: What has been the most compelling so far into the
Speaker 3: actual substance of the accusations here in the question that
Speaker 3: the jury is considered.
Speaker 10: That's a good question. I mean, I think it's all
Speaker 10: a mosaic as to what's the most important the government's
Speaker 10: trying to put in each little piece. Whether it's Hopex
Speaker 10: and the drama of it, whether it's when we get
Speaker 10: to Michael Cohen and specifically what was said, whether it's
Speaker 10: Packer and how the business worked. I'm not sure which
Speaker 10: is the most dramatic. I mean, Hopeix obviously sounds like
Speaker 10: it's been.
Speaker 6: The most dramatic.
Speaker 10: I haven't been in the courtroom, but each piece in
Speaker 10: the end is important to the government because they're going
Speaker 10: to pull it all together and say it to the jury. Listen,
Speaker 10: this shows that he's guilty. It's not just one day
Speaker 10: they got him. It's all the evidence that comes in
Speaker 10: over a number of weeks.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Fair enough, And it is worth keeping in mind that
Speaker 3: there is kind of multiple things that the prosecutors are
Speaker 3: trying to prove here. One that he falsified business records
Speaker 3: by misclassifying as legal costs essentially repayments to Michael Cohen
Speaker 3: over the actual hush money itself. And then the other
Speaker 3: part of this being that there were political incentives here,
Speaker 3: that this was done with the effort to influence the
Speaker 3: outcome of the twenty sixteen election. So we've heard a
Speaker 3: lot of substance on the business side in terms of
Speaker 3: the actual documentation, where money was moving, who was moving it,
Speaker 3: kind of how all of this logistically worked. Perhaps the
Speaker 3: more boring testimony perhaps that we could hear. We have
Speaker 3: yet to hear some of the more salacious testimony that
Speaker 3: we could hear, including from Stormy Daniels, the Poor and
Speaker 3: Star herself who was in question in this case, or
Speaker 3: Karen McDougall for that matter, a former Playboy model. Will
Speaker 3: that be mostly just it gets the headlines, It gets
Speaker 3: the attention of the jury. It's the human interest kind
Speaker 3: of part of the story that kind of factors into
Speaker 3: this case. Or could their testimony bring real substance that
Speaker 3: informs whether or not the jury convicts him of these charges.
Speaker 10: Oh, I think there's definitely substance. So what their testimony
Speaker 10: will will be including because the evidence is going to
Speaker 10: be why did they agree to take the money, what
Speaker 10: happened with mister Trump, what was his motive? And in
Speaker 10: the end, what the issue is for the jury, and
Speaker 10: I think the government's going to argue is did mister
Speaker 10: Trump intend to commit these crimes? And when you hear
Speaker 10: the testimony of the two women, if you hear it
Speaker 10: from Michael Cohen as so was what mister Trump was saying.
Speaker 10: That's how they're gonna be able to put the pieces
Speaker 10: together and say it's not just him signing checks. He
Speaker 10: knew exactly what he was doing was wrong.
Speaker 3: Well, on the subject of Michael Cohen, I'm glad you
Speaker 3: brought him up. Obviously, one of the instances or several
Speaker 3: of them in which Trump has been found in violation
Speaker 3: of this gag order was attacking him, calling him things
Speaker 3: like a sleezebag. For example, clearly the defense is trying
Speaker 3: to paint him a picture of him as being an
Speaker 3: untrustworthy witness because he has in fact spent time in
Speaker 3: prison and lied and all of these things. All of
Speaker 3: that is a matter of fact. Michael Cohen, of course,
Speaker 3: maintain is that he did so in protecting Donald Trump,
Speaker 3: so everything should be viewed with that lens. But does
Speaker 3: that make him a credible or a compromised witness in
Speaker 3: your mind?
Speaker 10: Josh So, mister Cohens is obviously a difficult witness, but
Speaker 10: I don't think he brings that much more baggage to
Speaker 10: the table than the average cooperating witness, which is, most
Speaker 10: cooperating witnesses are being called because they were involved in.
Speaker 6: The scheme itself.
Speaker 10: There's an old saying that prosecutors use, which is, you
Speaker 10: don't call priests and rabbis to testify as to what happened,
Speaker 10: because those aren't the type of people that commit the crimes,
Speaker 10: and the defendant you call the co conspirators. So obviously,
Speaker 10: mister Cohen brings a lot of baggage to the table,
Speaker 10: but that's sort of the point. That's the kind of
Speaker 10: person you ask to commit a crime for you and
Speaker 10: with you and I think the government's going to be
Speaker 10: able to weaponize that as much as mister Trump is
Speaker 10: afraid of him.
Speaker 3: Fair enough, and final question for you, Josh, as we
Speaker 3: watch the remainder of this week of the trial unfold potential,
Speaker 3: we have several more weeks to go. How important is
Speaker 3: it just the idea that the defense could so doubt
Speaker 3: in the mind of even just a single juror enough
Speaker 3: to make sure that a conviction does not happen, Rather
Speaker 3: than trying to disprove whether or not these payments were
Speaker 3: actually a made or anything like that, the actual evidence
Speaker 3: of the case, where the money was going, and how
Speaker 3: it was classified. Is it just about casting enough of
Speaker 3: a shadow over this idea that this really was intended
Speaker 3: to change the outcome of twenty sixteen.
Speaker 10: So I think the strategy that had his lawyer's todd
Speaker 10: An email and Susan are going to go after is
Speaker 10: trying to find that one jar and so the doubt.
Speaker 10: They don't need to prove to twelve people that mister
Speaker 10: Trump is innocent not guilty, They need to find one
Speaker 10: person who just can't do it. Whether that's because they
Speaker 10: don't want to do it, because they don't think the
Speaker 10: fact support it. Whatever the reason is, they're just trying
Speaker 10: to get the lowest common denometer level of proof in
Speaker 10: front of one drew such that the jury hanks.
Speaker 6: I think that's his best option.
Speaker 10: I mean, the idea that twelve people would find him
Speaker 10: not guilty is unlikely. It almost never happens in a
Speaker 10: criminal case, but particularly one like this where the evidence
Speaker 10: is pretty straightforward. That really the question is, you know,
Speaker 10: did he intend to do it?
Speaker 5: All?
Speaker 11: Right?
Speaker 3: Joshnav Talis, great to have you back here on Lumberg
Speaker 3: Television and Radio, former federal prosecutor and partner at Palace Partners.
Speaker 4: We appreciate your time today.
Speaker 3: Now, I do you just want to quickly update you
Speaker 3: on some breaking news we have been following throughout this hour. Hamas,
Speaker 3: of course, had said in a statement that it had
Speaker 3: accepted a cease fire deal proposed by Egypt and Cutter.
Speaker 3: We now do have confirmation from the US State Department
Speaker 3: that Hamas has issued a ceasefire response. This is according
Speaker 3: to spokesperson Matt Miller. He says the US is now
Speaker 3: reviewing that response from Hamas with regional partners. Again, we
Speaker 3: have not yet heard firmly from Israel whether or not,
Speaker 3: They too are going to accept the proposal in question.
Speaker 3: We will bring you more details on Andberg television and
Speaker 3: radio as we have them. We also want to get
Speaker 3: you an update on what's happening on Capitol Hill. As Congress,
Speaker 3: or at least the House is back in Washington today.
Speaker 3: The Senate isn't going to be back until tomorrow, but
Speaker 3: there is a big deadline looming at the end of
Speaker 3: this week. The FAA reauthorization needs to happen by May tenth.
Speaker 3: The question is will it. Jack Fitzpatrick covers Congress for
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Government, and he is joining me now from Capitol Hill.
Speaker 3: So Jack, obviously we're working under a deadline here, and
Speaker 3: yet the Senate isn't even in today. Is this going
Speaker 3: to happen in time or are we looking at another
Speaker 3: short term extension.
Speaker 11: It's a real gamble at this point, they have said.
Speaker 11: Senator Schumer has said he does not want another short
Speaker 11: term extension. The key question is can they negotiate a
Speaker 11: unanimous consent agreement to hold a quick vote in the Senate,
Speaker 11: which is contingent on allowing amendments that members want. That's
Speaker 11: usually the demand from a variety of members that they
Speaker 11: want an amendment on this piece of legislation that they like,
Speaker 11: or this tweak to the bill that is still being negotiated.
Speaker 11: It is not easy to get unanimous consent in the Senate,
Speaker 11: but we know that if they don't get that via
Speaker 11: an agreement on a package of amendment votes, likely amendments
Speaker 11: that would fail so that they don't change the underlying
Speaker 11: bill but at least give votes, then they're not going
Speaker 11: to make the Friday deadline and they would be forced
Speaker 11: to rely on a short term extension. So that's what's
Speaker 11: being negotiated now. It is dicey when you bring in
Speaker 11: tough major pieces of legislation and say I want an
Speaker 11: amendment on that. For example, the tax bill that the
Speaker 11: House passed that Senator Widen has pushed to attach to
Speaker 11: this FAA bill. That is a tough one because this
Speaker 11: is a carefully negotiated package, so making major changes would
Speaker 11: also cause a hold up potentially, But they're still negotiating
Speaker 11: those amendment votes and trying to get it done by
Speaker 11: the end of this week.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess when it says it's been described the
Speaker 3: last train to leave the station, everybody's going to try
Speaker 3: and get as much baggage on that train is as
Speaker 3: humanly possible. So we'll be watching for that in the
Speaker 3: Senate this week.
Speaker 7: Jack.
Speaker 3: Meantime, in the House, we also are and watch to
Speaker 3: see if Marjorie Taylor Green, the congresswoman from Georgia, does
Speaker 3: as she was promised to do and actually force a
Speaker 3: vote on her motion to vacate against how Speaker Mike Johnson.
Speaker 3: Do we have any indication of when that might actually happen.
Speaker 11: It could be as soon as today. She is supposed
Speaker 11: to meet with the Speaker today. According to some of
Speaker 11: my colleagues, the congresswoman has not backed down at all
Speaker 11: from her claim that she will force a vote. She
Speaker 11: was tweeting earlier that she's being threatened with losing her
Speaker 11: committee assignments, so there is no detante. There is no
Speaker 11: easing of tensions there. We don't know about the exact timing,
Speaker 11: but it could be as soon as today. There is
Speaker 11: a plan to vote to table it, which is a
Speaker 11: little easier for Democrats to vote to do away with
Speaker 11: the motion rather than casting a vote for Mike Johnson
Speaker 11: as speaker. But as for the timing, it really is
Speaker 11: up to Marjorie Taylor Green as to when she pulls
Speaker 11: the trigger on this and makes it happen, and she
Speaker 11: is not divulged exactly when that's going to happen, other
Speaker 11: than saying that she is going to do it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So we'll be watching for updates from that meeting,
Speaker 3: which is supposed to be.
Speaker 4: A later this afternoon.
Speaker 3: Jack, just quickly in our final minute with you, it's
Speaker 3: also worth parting out that a Democratic Congressman, Henry Quaer
Speaker 3: of Texas, was indicted by the DOJ. We learned this
Speaker 3: on Friday, accused of accepting six hundred thousand dollars in bribes.
Speaker 3: Are we going to see an effort to oust him
Speaker 3: like we saw when Congressman former Congressman George Santos was
Speaker 3: kicked out of the body before he was actually found
Speaker 3: guilty in a court of law.
Speaker 11: That is possible. We haven't gotten to that point just
Speaker 11: yet because this just broke on late on Friday. He
Speaker 11: did have to step down from a committee leadership role.
Speaker 11: These are serious charges each, some of them carry sentences
Speaker 11: of up to twenty years, so it's not something that
Speaker 11: members are overlooking. It's certainly something to keep an eye
Speaker 11: on to see if, especially starting with Republicans push for
Speaker 11: him to resign. That is a possibility.
Speaker 3: Well, we know you will have your eye on that
Speaker 3: for us, as you have your eye on so many
Speaker 3: things on Capitol Hill. Jack Fitzpatrick, Congressional reporter for Bloomberg Government,
Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining me.
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 9: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
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