1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 3 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,279 Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay and 4 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 5 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 6 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 2: on YouTube. 7 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 3: We are following the breaking news we got less than 8 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 3: an hour ago from Hamas, which says that it has 9 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:36,239 Speaker 3: accepted a ceasefire proposal put forward by mediators Cutter and Egypt. 10 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 3: Hamas says the head of its poll up bureau informed 11 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 3: Cutter's Prime Minister and Egypt's Minister of Intelligence that had 12 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 3: agreed to the proposal that was put forward by the 13 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 3: two countries. This is according to a statement on the 14 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 3: group's telegram channel. We have yet, though, to hear from 15 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 3: Israel as to whether or not they have in turn accepted, 16 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 3: or from Cutter or Egypt for that matter. But of course, 17 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 3: this follows a phone call that happened earlier today between 18 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 3: President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister bb Net Yahoo, in 19 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 3: which they discussed not only the efforts towards a c spire, 20 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 3: but also questions around RAFA and a potential invasion which 21 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 3: the US has been pushing against for more. Now we 22 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 3: go to Michelle jem Risco, a Bloomberg White House reporter 23 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 3: who was joining me here in our Washington, d C. 24 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 4: Studio. So, Michelle, obviously we are still. 25 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 3: A waiting confirmation from any of the other parties that 26 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 3: have been involved in the ceasefire talks. What we do know, though, 27 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 3: is that the administration has been pushing aggressively for an 28 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 3: agreement like this to be reached, not just President Biden 29 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 3: when speaking with Netanyahu earlier today, but Bill Burns, who 30 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 3: has been in the region, the director of the CIA, 31 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 3: and of course Secretary of State Anthony B. Lincoln was 32 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 3: on his seventh trip to the Middle East just last week. 33 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:40,759 Speaker 5: That's right. 34 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 1: It's been an all hands on deck approach, even more 35 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 1: so in recent days, and we were getting vibes from 36 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 1: the White House and others in the administration that things 37 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 1: might be moving closer. So we have yet to see 38 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: with this Hamas news. You know, that adds another layer 39 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: of uncertainty as to whether that fits into the fast 40 00:01:57,360 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: evolving developments here. But they did talk this morning that 41 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: it was a multi you know, multifaceted call really, as 42 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: they often are. Between those two leaders, and a lot 43 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,079 Speaker 1: of reading in between the lines and what they discussed. 44 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 1: But we'll have to see, you know, when it concerns 45 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:15,639 Speaker 1: Holocaust Remembrance Day this week, when it concerns the Rafa 46 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 1: operation that may or may not move forward, and we've 47 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 1: seen tentative signs of that, the evacuation is certainly happening. 48 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 1: When it concerns humanitarian aid, all these questions, those are 49 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: certainly the topics that were forefront in this call. 50 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 4: But you know, again a lot of fast moving developments here. 51 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:31,640 Speaker 4: Well on your point of Rafa. 52 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 3: When we came in this morning, we thought the conversation 53 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 3: would be having is that a ceasefire agreement was potentially 54 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 3: even farther away rather than a closer given the stalling out. 55 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 3: It seemed that talks experienced in Cairo over the weekend, 56 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 3: and then to your point, Israeli Israeli military signaling to 57 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 3: civilians in Rafa they needed to start moving out of 58 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:51,920 Speaker 3: parts of the city which could have laid the groundwork 59 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 3: for that ground operation. What we know that the administration, 60 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,839 Speaker 3: the Biden administration, is vary against that. They have said 61 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 3: as much publicly on many occasions. Is Prime Minister Netanyahu 62 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 3: in a position now where if he were not to 63 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 3: agree in turn to a ceasefire agreement that Hamas has 64 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 3: agreed to, that he would be in serious trouble with 65 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 3: this White House. 66 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: Well, it's very interesting because there's a lot of diplomatic 67 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:15,079 Speaker 1: games that might be at work here as well. And 68 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 1: we don't know. I mean, you use the word signaling, 69 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:19,519 Speaker 1: which I think is appropriate at this point in time. 70 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 3: They did. 71 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: We do know that the Israeli military has signaled for 72 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:27,119 Speaker 1: some evacuation of Rafa, not a full evacuation of those 73 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 1: member of those civilians there, but at least in part. 74 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 4: And we do know that's moving forward. 75 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 1: Now, we don't know how long that would take, what 76 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: the ground offensive would look like if it does move forward, 77 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 1: and what it's connected to, what the purpose is there. 78 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: But as you mentioned, that does create another wrinkle in 79 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 1: Prime Minister Netnyahu's strategy. If Hamas has agreed to this deal, 80 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: he's going to have to figure out do you move 81 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: forward and do you move forward with the sort of 82 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: purpose that he originally intended for this sort of operation, 83 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: But certainly, as you mentioned, not supported by the US 84 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: in its full form. 85 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I wonder what we'll hear from President Biden 86 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 3: about this tomorrow when he's planned to give a big 87 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 3: speech it was announced last week and Holocaust Rememberance Day 88 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 3: it will be tomorrow Tuesday on Capitol Hill. After he 89 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 3: spoke from the White House last week about what we're 90 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 3: seeing on campus protest. How would we expect that the 91 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 3: tenor of that speech would change if a ceasefire agreement 92 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 3: is actually in place before the President gives that address. 93 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it certainly makes it much more complicated. 94 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 1: I mean, this week was already pretty tricky in terms 95 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: of messaging with the Holocaust Rememberance Day. Of course, the 96 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,039 Speaker 1: Biden administration has been, you know, at this tricky position 97 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:35,839 Speaker 1: to balance a lot of different things. They certainly want 98 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:39,119 Speaker 1: to hammer home the message that their commitment to Israel 99 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 1: security is ironclad, as they've been saying and as the 100 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 1: President himself has said, and they want to hammer home 101 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 1: the message of being fully in support of, you know, 102 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:51,159 Speaker 1: observing Holocaust Remembrance Day, remembering what it's for, and backing 103 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: those who are fighting anti Semitism, as well as what 104 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: they say is other hate field speech, you know, to 105 00:04:57,600 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: speak to these other issues campus protests and everything. 106 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 4: But at the same. 107 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 1: Time, they want to make fully clear that, and they 108 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,479 Speaker 1: have in certain ways that you know, US policy could 109 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:09,840 Speaker 1: change if the Rapa offensive moves forward. So we're going 110 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: to have to see how these developments affect the tone 111 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 1: and tenor, as you say, of the president speech tomorrow. 112 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 3: But all said domestically, when considering the domestic layout for 113 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 3: President Biden, let alone what this would mean for Palestinian civilians, 114 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 3: for the families of hostages, for the hostages themselves, of 115 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 3: a ceasefire agreement were. 116 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 4: To be reached. 117 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 3: If this were to be confirmed by Israel, it could 118 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 3: potentially alleviate some of the pressure here on President Biden 119 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,719 Speaker 3: here at home with Arab American Muslim voters, young voters 120 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:38,480 Speaker 3: who have been so dissatisfied with the way this administration 121 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 3: has approached this conflict. 122 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 4: Yes, that's right, and we do have a word. 123 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 1: I mean, there's some other reporting and the axios and 124 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:48,799 Speaker 1: others talking about, you know, the possibility of an ammunition 125 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 1: shipment being delayed from US to Israel, which would be 126 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 1: if it is true, I mean, that would be a 127 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 1: big sign of some sort of change in a long 128 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 1: running policy of continue to support militarily Israel and its 129 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: fight against Hamas, and we have as you know, as 130 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: I mentioned, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, among others, 131 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 1: has said, you know, if this RAFA operation moves forward, 132 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 1: which it looks like in some format, might then you know, 133 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 1: we will tweak our policy in some way. 134 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 4: We don't know what that looks like, and maybe this 135 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 4: is part of it. 136 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 1: But you know, again a lot of moving parts, and 137 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 1: we see the ceasefied deal maybe on, maybe off, but 138 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,559 Speaker 1: you know that also has an influence here in terms 139 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: of both the diplomatic side as well as the military side. 140 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg's Michelle Jamrisco, who covers the White House 141 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 3: for US, thank you so much for joining us again. 142 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 3: What we're dealing with here is Hamas, which says that 143 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 3: it has accepted the ceasefire agreement. 144 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:42,239 Speaker 4: Put forward by Egypt and Cutter. 145 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 3: We have not yet heard word from Israel on this matter, 146 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:47,839 Speaker 3: so of course we'll keep you updated if and when 147 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 3: we do. But we turn now to another expert on 148 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 3: this region, Aaron David Miller, I'm pleased to say is 149 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 3: joining us. He is a senior fellow at the Carnegie 150 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 3: Endowment for International Peace. It's always great to have you 151 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 3: here on Bloomberg Television and Radio erin. Obviously, we are 152 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 3: still awaiting confirmation from Israel that the ceasefire agreement has 153 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 3: been reached. Would it surprise you if it had, considering 154 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 3: the rhetoric, the developments that we had gotten out of 155 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 3: this region just in the last forty eight hours. 156 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 6: Not really. I guess it's a question of urgency. 157 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 7: I think as of this morning, I concluded that there 158 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 7: is insuvision urgency and the part of Hamas and the 159 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 7: Israelis to sign anything. And the urgency that really existed 160 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 7: was only on the part of the Bibe administration. Understand, 161 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 7: I mean, I think we have to be very sober 162 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 7: here though. Number one, we have to wait for an 163 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 7: Israeli response, and number two, the quote unquote proposal ceasefire 164 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 7: agreement has been reported in many places, in many different forms. 165 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 7: I would suspect that what if, in fact Hamas has 166 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 7: agreed to anything and expects the Israelis to agree, it 167 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 7: would be to. 168 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 6: A phase one that it was, that is to say, 169 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 6: the exchange of. 170 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 5: Thirty three. 171 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 7: Women the elderly in the infirm in exchanged for an 172 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 7: asymmetrical number of Palestinian prisoners, as much as seven hundred 173 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 7: or one thousand, one hundred of whom have you been 174 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 7: accused of or convicted of killing Israelis? 175 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 6: And a forty day That was the number mentioned. 176 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 7: In one of the reports, a forty day temporary sees fired. 177 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 7: What had blocked the negotiation so far is that the 178 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:34,680 Speaker 7: Israelis one of the issues. The Reels had not accepted 179 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 7: amasa's demand that this Phase one basically produce a comprehensive 180 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 7: seats fired and with throw all of Israeli forces from Godsam, 181 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 7: essentially an end to the war. So it's not clear 182 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:49,560 Speaker 7: to me whether or not AMAS has accepted. When they 183 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 7: say they've accepted the Egyptian cuttery proposal, is this the 184 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 7: broader proposal for three phases to actually end the war, 185 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 7: or is it Phase one, which is the more limited exchange. 186 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 6: So I think the good news here is. 187 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 7: That it could preempt any sort of significant Israeli ground campaign. 188 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 7: It would result in freedom for the hostages, women in 189 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 7: particular who are being abused, and a temporary cease fire, 190 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 7: cessation of hostilities, along with the redeployment of Israeli forces 191 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:28,880 Speaker 7: from certain areas of Gosm and an end to Israeli 192 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 7: overflights during the hours where this hostage exchange for prisoners 193 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 7: is going to take place. 194 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 6: And remember, I would bet. 195 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 7: That it will be a few weeks, maybe not that 196 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 7: long before implementation of phase one could take place, given 197 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 7: the complexity that surrounded the You remember the initial exchange 198 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:58,319 Speaker 7: if one hundred and two hostages for four hundred Palestinian 199 00:09:58,320 --> 00:09:59,559 Speaker 7: prisoners in mid November. 200 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 6: A lot we don't know. 201 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 7: And you know, there's also the dead cat on your 202 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 7: doorstep theory, which is that Hamas is accepted, trying to 203 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 7: put the ball in Israel's court and now leaving Benjamin 204 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 7: Nataniel with the decision whether to agree or not. President's 205 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 7: phone call this morning clearly they discussed this issue. And 206 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:22,559 Speaker 7: since Bill Burns is in Doha. 207 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 6: And Cutter SEEI director, I think this is probably more 208 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 6: more real than not real. 209 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,320 Speaker 3: Okay, And to your point, there are still a lot 210 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 3: of details we don't know. The statement that we got 211 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 3: from Hamas did not provide further details on what exactly 212 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 3: this deal would look like, what it all entails, and 213 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 3: we still have not gotten word from Israel. But Erin, 214 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 3: it's worth kind of going back to that point you 215 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 3: were just making about. Now it kind of does put 216 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 3: the ball in bibing at in Yahu's court. If Hamas says, okay, 217 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:57,439 Speaker 3: we agree, what kind of position is he in if 218 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 3: he does not do so in return, not just geopolitically, 219 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 3: in terms of the consequence he could face from a 220 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 3: Biden administration that might be very unhappy with that decision, 221 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,320 Speaker 3: but also domestically, knowing the great deal of pressure that 222 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 3: he is under at home. 223 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 7: Yeah, well, I think you know, to quote the president, 224 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 7: here's the deal. Secretary of State Blinkett described the Israeli 225 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 7: proposal last week as quote extremely generous unquote, thereby I 226 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 7: think locking the administration in to whatever the Prime Minister 227 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 7: was prepared to agree to that over the last ten 228 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 7: days Hamas had rejected. So if in fact Hamas's agreement 229 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:46,599 Speaker 7: puts on the table new conditions and they expect the 230 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:51,439 Speaker 7: Americans to press the Israelis hard, the bid administration is 231 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:55,839 Speaker 7: going to have a tougher time having praised N'tagnao's initial off. 232 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 7: So this is what I mean by this sort of 233 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:05,079 Speaker 7: diplomatic gamesmanship one upsmanship that's circulating here. But I suspect, 234 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:07,959 Speaker 7: given the fact that the President had a conversation with 235 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 7: the Prime Minister in the last several hours, the fact 236 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 7: that CI Director Burns has been in Cairo and Doha 237 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 7: managing all of this. He knows what's in that deal, 238 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 7: and I suspect he'll be able to give the administration 239 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 7: a pretty accurate read as to what to expect from 240 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 7: the Israelis. I wouldn't imagine under these circumstances. If Hamasa's 241 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:37,080 Speaker 7: acceptance is real and if it applies to what the 242 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 7: Israelis had agreed to, then I think chances are you'll 243 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 7: see you'll see moved to the next phase, which will 244 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 7: be the preparation for implementation of phase one. On the 245 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 7: other hand, if Hamas has put stuff on the table 246 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 7: and the administration thinks it's reasonable and realistic that you know, 247 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 7: had not agreed, then you may see some friction. Yeah. 248 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 3: Well, it's worth pointing out that in the statement that 249 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 3: Hamas posted on telegram, they said they were accepting a 250 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 3: proposal put forward by the two countries of Cutter and Egypt, 251 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 3: not Israel. So I wonder if there is maybe a 252 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 3: difference in what the administration was talking about versus what 253 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 3: Hamas says it's agreeing to. 254 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 4: Today. 255 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 3: Again, we're still awaiting details just finally, Aerin, given that 256 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 3: you were suggesting that this may take weeks to actually implement, 257 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 3: is there's still a chance in your mind in our 258 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 3: final minute with you, that Israel could move into Rafa 259 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 3: in the interim, as they have already signaled to civilians 260 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 3: there they should begin moving out. 261 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 7: No, well, no, if in fact Hamas has accepted a 262 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 7: creditble proposal that's within the Israeli ballpark, I think the 263 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 7: odds that the Israelis are moving too ratha under those 264 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:55,959 Speaker 7: circumstances to jettison a deal on which the administration has 265 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 7: banked almost everything Kirby had meant the other day, there's 266 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:02,319 Speaker 7: no plan B. President wants to change the pictures of Gaza, 267 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:05,960 Speaker 7: free to ostages, surge your manditarian assistance, and try to 268 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 7: manage the domestic political fallout from accusations that he's mismanaged 269 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 7: this war, unhappy with progressives, and the Israelis jettison well, 270 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 7: I think you can draw your own conclusions what might 271 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 7: happen as a consequence. 272 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 3: All right, Aaron, It's always great to have you on 273 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 3: balance of power, but especially on a daylight today with 274 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 3: this developing news. 275 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 4: Thank you so much for joining us. 276 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 3: Aaron, David Miller, of course, as a senior fellow at 277 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 3: the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and I would remind 278 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 3: our listeners and viewers what we have right now as 279 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 3: a statement from Hamas that it has accepted a ceasefire 280 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 3: proposal put forward by. 281 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 4: Cutter and Egypt. 282 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 3: We have not yet heard from either of those two countries, 283 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 3: nor have we heard from Israel as to whether it 284 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 3: has accepted this agreement. In turn, so we will continue 285 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 3: to keep you a prize here on Bloomberg Television and radio, 286 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 3: and we'll have much more. 287 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:59,360 Speaker 4: Coming up in just a few minutes. This is Bloomberg. 288 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 289 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 290 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 2: roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also 291 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 292 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 293 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 3: We are dealing with some breaking news. Hamas has said 294 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 3: that it is accepting a ceasefire proposal that has been 295 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 3: put forward by Mediator's Cutter and Egypt. This is according 296 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 3: to a statement that was put on the group's telegram channel. 297 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 3: We have not yet though heard fir a word from Israel. 298 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 3: Channel twelve now reporting, according to a headline crossing the 299 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 3: Bloomberg terminal, that Israel is studying this updated ceasefire proposal. 300 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 3: Remember Hamas has said here, it accepted a proposal put 301 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 3: forward by two other countries, Cutter and Egypt, not necessarily 302 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 3: the same as the Israeli proposal that we heard about 303 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 3: from the Biden administration last week when Secretary of Saint 304 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 3: Anthony Blincoln called Israel's proposal generous. We do not have 305 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 3: details on what exactly this all may entail, and again 306 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 3: no confirmation. 307 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 4: Yet from the other parties involved. 308 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 3: We want to turn now to Genie Shanze Noo, Bloomberg 309 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 3: Politics contributor in Chape and Fay Republican Strategists and managing 310 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 3: director at ACTAM. Thank you both for being here, Genie, 311 00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 3: while we wait for a firm confirmation of this news. 312 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 3: Of course, it does have great political weight on President 313 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 3: Biden domestically, especially ahead of a speech on anti Semitism 314 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 3: he is set to give tomorrow on Holocaust Remembrance Day. 315 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 3: What do you just make of the timing of all 316 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 3: of this news colliding simultaneously ahead of a big address 317 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 3: like that on the day that Columbia University announced its 318 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 3: main commencement ceremony is not happening because of protests there. 319 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 3: It is a very complex picture, both at home and abroad. 320 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean it is fascinating because we're less than 321 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 8: twenty four hours away from the President's speech for Holocaust 322 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 8: Remembrance Day, and the idea that we could also be 323 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 8: within sight. Perhaps as you keep talking about, of a 324 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:02,360 Speaker 8: cease fire, temporary, I may be permanent, might change the 325 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 8: trajectory of what the President has to say tomorrow. So 326 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,120 Speaker 8: very very tough for the White House to manage all 327 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:11,360 Speaker 8: of this, But I do think that the best case scenario, 328 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 8: not just for Joe Biden politically, but more importantly for 329 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 8: everybody involved, including and especially the hostages, there would be 330 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 8: a cease fire. But I think we have to be 331 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 8: very very cautious on all of this because we still 332 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 8: haven't gotten confirmation, and of course we know Israel was 333 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,640 Speaker 8: on the brink of moving into RAFA, and of course 334 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 8: if Hamas put any conditions on this, I think that 335 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 8: that could blow the entire thing up. So I think 336 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 8: we have a lot more questions here, and that does 337 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 8: make the White House's job a little more difficult as 338 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 8: they're looking at this big speech tomorrow for the president. 339 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 3: Well, another headline just crossing the Bloomberg terminal. The President 340 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:54,880 Speaker 3: of Turkey, Regip Type Erdawan, says that Turkey welcomes Samasa's 341 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 3: move to accept the ceasefire. Again, though that's from Turkey, 342 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 3: not from Cutter, Egypt or Israe, the three countries that 343 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 3: we are awaiting a firm word from chape And just 344 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 3: to bring you in here, of course, this is happening 345 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,960 Speaker 3: roughly seven months into the war between Israel and Hamas 346 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:11,919 Speaker 3: and now less than six months ahead of an election 347 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 3: in November. To what extent do you expect this issue, 348 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 3: what is happening in the Middle East, the conduct an 349 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 3: approach to the relationship with Israel is going to factor 350 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:25,159 Speaker 3: into who ultimately wins the presidency come November. 351 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 9: Well, I will qualify this with six months in politics 352 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 9: as sort of a lifetime, and with the way that 353 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 9: things shore so rapidly in today's day and age, I 354 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:37,720 Speaker 9: think there is a chance that this is in everyone's 355 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 9: There is a chance that this is at everyone at 356 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 9: least in America politics review. 357 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 5: Some people are in an America Poltice review window. 358 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,200 Speaker 9: Of course, it will not be for the people going 359 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 9: through it and released, so I do think there will 360 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 9: be a lessening of it. I think now is probably 361 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 9: in retrospect, might be a huge inflection point. 362 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 5: Right the President's going to give his speech, there. 363 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 9: Are talks of cease fires, so it is like Ginny said, 364 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 9: is you know, it does put him in a harder 365 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 9: position as he's trying to give this speech and navigate 366 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 9: the internal domestic politics. But it's a great opportunity for 367 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 9: him to get out there talk about the anti Semitism 368 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 9: problem that's happening across the country. He'll be able to, 369 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 9: you know, as presidents usually do, scold Israel a little bit, 370 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 9: show some support from Palacinian people, and see if he 371 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 9: can sort of thread that very careful needle on his 372 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 9: side of the aisle, which which in my view is 373 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 9: a little bit fractured on you know, support for Israel 374 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:34,439 Speaker 9: or the Palestadians or Kasa or whatever is happening on 375 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,879 Speaker 9: college campuses these days. So I do think it's it's 376 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 9: all colored by that, and I do think he has 377 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:44,680 Speaker 9: a huge opportunity, and of course it will be under 378 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 9: the shadow of whether there is actually a ceasefire or not. 379 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 9: It would be great for the President to be able 380 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 9: to stand up there after a ceasefire at least in 381 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:54,919 Speaker 9: principle or at least has been announced that they're you know. 382 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 5: Close to one. 383 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 9: That would be I think a good backdrop for his 384 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 9: speech to sort of head out of this and into 385 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 9: the summer months when economy, gas prices inflation, as people 386 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 9: leave college campuses right and go home, students go home, 387 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 9: that will wane right in time to convene them to 388 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 9: convene two months before the election again after at the 389 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 9: end of the summer, but we'll see what the state 390 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 9: of the world is at that point. 391 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:19,399 Speaker 4: Yeah. 392 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,680 Speaker 3: Well, time is a weird thing in politics shape and 393 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 3: your point is very well taken. Six months is basically 394 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 3: a lifetime. So I will say what I'm about to 395 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 3: say with that caveat that there's only so much polls 396 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 3: can tell you, surely six months out. But I do 397 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 3: want to point out a few polls that we have 398 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:37,400 Speaker 3: gotten over the weekend, one being ABC and IPSOS doing 399 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 3: some polling on the general election contest between President Biden 400 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 3: and former President Trump. Basically shows they're locked in a 401 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 3: tight race. We all know that excluding people who say 402 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 3: they wouldn't vote, Trump is winning forty six to forty four. 403 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 3: When you narrow it though to registered voters and then 404 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 3: likely voters, Biden forty nine, Trump forty five. So once 405 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 3: you get to those who are at actually likely to 406 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,920 Speaker 3: turn out at the ballot box, Genie Biden is ahead. 407 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 3: Does that just underscore that all of this is ultimately 408 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,359 Speaker 3: going to be at the end of the day about turnout. 409 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,879 Speaker 8: It will, And of course, you know, I'm so glad 410 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 8: you mentioned the screening. That's critically important. You need to 411 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,639 Speaker 8: look at likely voters to get a really good sense. 412 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,479 Speaker 8: But of course, the other issue here is we're talking 413 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 8: national polls versus Bloomberg's poll, which is a you know, 414 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 8: the critical state that we look at, and those key 415 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 8: states are going to decide this election. So the national 416 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,320 Speaker 8: polls are obviously fascinating. I love to look at them, 417 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 8: but the real question of a winner and a loser 418 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 8: here is going to come on those states, you know, 419 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,520 Speaker 8: those seven critical states. Although Trump's team wants to add 420 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 8: Minnesota and Virginia, we understand over the weekend, I don't 421 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 8: know that they deserve to be there. That's the other 422 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,680 Speaker 8: complication here. But the poll was fascinating because it did 423 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 8: show obviously, you know, it is a neck and neck race, 424 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 8: and Joe Biden's challenges remain in the demographics young people, 425 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:05,440 Speaker 8: African Americans. You know that it is a critical challenge 426 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 8: for him. This has to be a referendum on Donald 427 00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 8: Trump for him to win, and vice versa for you know, 428 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:11,920 Speaker 8: Joe Biden. 429 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 6: For Donald Trump to. 430 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 8: Win, it has to be a referendum on Joe Biden. 431 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,920 Speaker 8: They are both incredibly unpopular. 432 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 3: Well, Jeanie teeing me up perfectly for the next question 433 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 3: I wanted to ask chapin, which is are we only 434 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 3: really talking about seven swing states or should we be 435 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,440 Speaker 3: talking about nine. Trump's team says their polling suggests that 436 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 3: Minnesota and Virginia are in play. 437 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 4: Chap and you buy it. 438 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,680 Speaker 5: Sure, I'll buy it. You know, like you said, it's 439 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:37,400 Speaker 5: six months out. 440 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,440 Speaker 9: Maybe you know this this game and the map will change, 441 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,440 Speaker 9: expand and shrink on both sides. I'd love to see 442 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,440 Speaker 9: a time lapse of you know, internal strategies, you know, 443 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 9: electoral maps in each campaign office and see. 444 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,360 Speaker 5: How they move and shift over the days. 445 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 9: I do think there will be some wild cards, as always, 446 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 9: you know, a state like Virginia may pop at the 447 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 9: end for Trump, you know, six. 448 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,680 Speaker 5: Months from now. Who knows the point. 449 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:06,639 Speaker 9: I would everything you guys have said so far I 450 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 9: think is true. I think the elector to shrinking. And 451 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:13,160 Speaker 9: what I mean by that is the persuadable, the persuadables, right. 452 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 9: I think Axios this morning or last night had an 453 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 9: article about how both campaigns are saying the persuadables in 454 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 9: these seven swing states or however many you want to 455 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 9: call it is all less than ten percent. So they're 456 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 9: fighting for not only these few states, they're fighting for 457 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,120 Speaker 9: less than ten percent in each of these states as 458 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:36,199 Speaker 9: persuadable voters. So to sort of circle back, it is 459 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 9: going to be incredibly important for their basis to be 460 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:43,120 Speaker 9: energized and out and voting in full force to sort of, 461 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 9: you know, counteract the referendum on each particular candidate, which 462 00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 9: this is turning out to be. And no one should 463 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 9: be surprised by this because you know, Donald Trump and 464 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:55,439 Speaker 9: Joe Biden's name recognition, you know, nobody does. It is 465 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 9: not I don't think anyone in this election is because 466 00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 9: they have to read more about each candidate and figure 467 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,639 Speaker 9: out who I'm voting right, that's less than ten percent 468 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 9: that we're talking about. Everyone else knows these people and 469 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 9: has an opinion already, which is the difficulty. 470 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 5: Then you have to get those people to vote. 471 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, very true. 472 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,159 Speaker 3: And when talking about the demographics and the makeup of 473 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,400 Speaker 3: the Democratic base specifically, Genie, some other polling I wanted 474 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 3: to point to Washington Post and IPSOS a poll of 475 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,720 Speaker 3: war than thirteen hundred Black adults finds only sixty two 476 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 3: percent of them say they're absolutely certain to vote. That 477 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 3: is down twelve points from the seventy four percent who 478 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,440 Speaker 3: said so in twenty twenty. And the drop and turnout 479 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 3: interest is sharpest among younger Black people. How is the 480 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 3: Biden campaign likely to look at this polling, Genie. 481 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,199 Speaker 8: This is devastating for the Bret Biden team. You know, 482 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 8: they've got a money and time advantage right now. If 483 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 8: anything puts lights of fire under them, it should be 484 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 8: those numbers you just read. Joe Biden got eighty four 485 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 8: percent of African Americans in twenty twenty. He had them 486 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:02,959 Speaker 8: by big numbers Africa Americans, younger African Americans in twenty twenty. 487 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 8: To lose that is devastating for the campaign. So They've 488 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 8: got to use the time and the money they have 489 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,919 Speaker 8: while Donald Trump is in court with this fundraising advantage 490 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 8: to appeal to that demographic in these swing and I 491 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,680 Speaker 8: don't care if we call them seven or nine states. 492 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 8: They've got to go on the air and they've got 493 00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:24,120 Speaker 8: to talk about what a Donald Trump presidency means for 494 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 8: these people. They've got to remind people the impact on healthcare, 495 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 8: the impact on reproduction, the impact on the Supreme Court, 496 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 8: the impact on freedom and liberty, all of those things 497 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,960 Speaker 8: that Joe Biden can, you know, look at these polls 498 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 8: and say people give them a slight advantage, including in 499 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 8: the ABC Bowl, in terms of character. That's the only 500 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 8: way they can do it, and it's going to be 501 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,879 Speaker 8: an uphill battle. These are really difficult numbers with the 502 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:49,679 Speaker 8: African American and young community. 503 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 6: Yeah. 504 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 3: Another figure from this poll, nearly one in five black 505 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,480 Speaker 3: voters who turned out for Biden in twenty twenty say 506 00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 3: they are less than certain about whether they will vote 507 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 3: at all this year. Jeanie Shanzno Bloomberg Politics contributor in 508 00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 3: Shape and Fay actim managing director and Republican strategist our 509 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,000 Speaker 3: political panel today, thank you so much for joining me. 510 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 511 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,439 Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then 512 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,479 Speaker 2: Freud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 513 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 514 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,680 Speaker 3: Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg Television and Radio. 515 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:33,720 Speaker 3: Or of course, we're keeping an eye on all of 516 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 3: the happenings here in Washington, but we also have to 517 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,439 Speaker 3: keep an eye on what's happening in New York today, 518 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,480 Speaker 3: as it's a new week in Donald Trump's criminal hush 519 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 3: money trial, the proceedings kicking off today with him being 520 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 3: found in contempt of court again for another instance of 521 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:50,920 Speaker 3: violating the gag order that he has been placed under 522 00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 3: in this case, and find another one thousand dollars for 523 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,800 Speaker 3: that violation. It brings the total finds up to ten 524 00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 3: thousand dollars after he was charged with nine different counts 525 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,159 Speaker 3: of that found in contempt of court for nine different 526 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 3: instances last week. The thing is he's a billionaire, at 527 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 3: least on paper, and the judge seems to recognize that. 528 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 3: He said today in court when handing down this order 529 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 3: that he fears that a thousand dollars finds are not 530 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 3: acting as a deterrent, and he threatened to actually put 531 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 3: the former president in jail, although he did emphasize that 532 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,679 Speaker 3: he is reluctant to do so might be a last resort. 533 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:26,879 Speaker 3: Is there are a number of complicating factors that would be 534 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,160 Speaker 3: involved in that, including the fact that his former president 535 00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,199 Speaker 3: he is entitled to Secret Service protection. Would make the 536 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,479 Speaker 3: whole thing very logistically complicated. So we want to get 537 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:37,879 Speaker 3: more now with Josh Naftalis. He is a partner at 538 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:41,120 Speaker 3: Palace Partners, also a former federal prosecutor, was the assistant 539 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 3: attorney at the Southern District of New York. Thank you 540 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 3: so much for being here. On balance of power, Josh, 541 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 3: how likely is it in your mind that Donald Trump 542 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,720 Speaker 3: may actually end up spending some time in jail for 543 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:54,280 Speaker 3: violating this gag order? 544 00:27:55,840 --> 00:28:00,080 Speaker 10: Thanks for having me. As you said, the judge is 545 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 10: trying to avoid that at all costs, which makes sense. 546 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,719 Speaker 10: He doesn't want to disrupt the trial, and obviously logistically 547 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:09,720 Speaker 10: it's a nightmare for the Secret Service. So I think 548 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,919 Speaker 10: the judge is keeping it out there as an option, 549 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:14,200 Speaker 10: but we're not. 550 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 6: There yet obviously. 551 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 3: Well, when you say it would disrupt the trial. Can 552 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,639 Speaker 3: you just shed some light as to what realistically we're 553 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 3: talking about. It was pointed out to me earlier today 554 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:28,199 Speaker 3: by one of our legal editors here at Bloomberg that 555 00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,959 Speaker 3: is a frequent occurrence that a defendant is brought in 556 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 3: from jail to attend court trial proceedings. How disruptive would 557 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,800 Speaker 3: it be? Would it just be it lengthens the time 558 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 3: of the trial. Would it have to be put on 559 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,640 Speaker 3: pause for some period of time? What realistically are we 560 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:43,320 Speaker 3: talking about? 561 00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:49,960 Speaker 10: I think both of those issues our potential complications. It 562 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:54,240 Speaker 10: could delay the trial because there's I would imagine the 563 00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,840 Speaker 10: Secret Service would have to adjust and set up a 564 00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,480 Speaker 10: protocol to bringing mister Trump to and from court and 565 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:05,000 Speaker 10: how he would be held overnight. That's just you know, 566 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,000 Speaker 10: secret Service one on one. There's also then the delay 567 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:12,840 Speaker 10: that would impact the trial and the worry of telling 568 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:16,280 Speaker 10: the jurors potentially the president had been remanded into custody. 569 00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 10: And then there's also the appellate issues that this creates. 570 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,040 Speaker 10: I imagine Donald Trump and his lawyers would argue this 571 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,160 Speaker 10: is interfering with his defense, that he's no longer able 572 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 10: to properly prepare, so all. 573 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:29,440 Speaker 6: Of these delays. 574 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:33,239 Speaker 10: Again, you know, as a government prosecutor, you don't want 575 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 10: delays in your trial. You want the evidence to come 576 00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:36,440 Speaker 10: in and get to the verdict. You don't want to 577 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 10: risk losing your jury or have appellate issues get raised. 578 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 4: Fair enough. 579 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 3: And of course it is the aim of protecting not 580 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,240 Speaker 3: just potential witnesses or likely witnesses in the case, but 581 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 3: also members of the jury that this gag order is 582 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,480 Speaker 3: designed for. Right, Can you just speak to why this 583 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,440 Speaker 3: is so important that a judge might actually be willing, 584 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 3: if not super reluctantly, to throw a former president in 585 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,480 Speaker 3: jail because of it. Why is this so consequential that 586 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:04,360 Speaker 3: incarceration could be justified? 587 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,040 Speaker 10: Sure so, I mean, it's the judge's courtroom. He sets 588 00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 10: the rules, and what mister Trump is doing is he's 589 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 10: flouting those rules, including to try to intimidate witnesses or 590 00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:16,840 Speaker 10: get his narrative out there or such that maybe jurors 591 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 10: would learn about it. But in the end, it's the 592 00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,600 Speaker 10: idea that he deserves a fair trial, but so does 593 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:26,040 Speaker 10: the government. He's not allowed to speak outside of the 594 00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,280 Speaker 10: walls of the courtroom and try to get things in 595 00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,640 Speaker 10: front of the jury or just at large to disrupt 596 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 10: the witnesses, and that's just how trials are run. 597 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,360 Speaker 3: Fair enough, and of course trials are also run with 598 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,760 Speaker 3: witnesses taking the stand and giving testimony, which we are 599 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 3: continue continuing to see today Today was not just about 600 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 3: a gag order violation of the actual testimony. We've heard 601 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,440 Speaker 3: so far from everyone from a former White House aid 602 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:57,120 Speaker 3: Hope Hicks to David Pecker, formerly of the National Inquirer. 603 00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:00,360 Speaker 3: What has been the most compelling so far into the 604 00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:04,360 Speaker 3: actual substance of the accusations here in the question that 605 00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:05,880 Speaker 3: the jury is considered. 606 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 10: That's a good question. I mean, I think it's all 607 00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,240 Speaker 10: a mosaic as to what's the most important the government's 608 00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 10: trying to put in each little piece. Whether it's Hopex 609 00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,640 Speaker 10: and the drama of it, whether it's when we get 610 00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:23,880 Speaker 10: to Michael Cohen and specifically what was said, whether it's 611 00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 10: Packer and how the business worked. I'm not sure which 612 00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,520 Speaker 10: is the most dramatic. I mean, Hopeix obviously sounds like 613 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:29,920 Speaker 10: it's been. 614 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:30,320 Speaker 6: The most dramatic. 615 00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:32,560 Speaker 10: I haven't been in the courtroom, but each piece in 616 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,920 Speaker 10: the end is important to the government because they're going 617 00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 10: to pull it all together and say it to the jury. Listen, 618 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,920 Speaker 10: this shows that he's guilty. It's not just one day 619 00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 10: they got him. It's all the evidence that comes in 620 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:44,320 Speaker 10: over a number of weeks. 621 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:46,200 Speaker 7: Yeah. 622 00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 3: Fair enough, And it is worth keeping in mind that 623 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,840 Speaker 3: there is kind of multiple things that the prosecutors are 624 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,400 Speaker 3: trying to prove here. One that he falsified business records 625 00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 3: by misclassifying as legal costs essentially repayments to Michael Cohen 626 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,760 Speaker 3: over the actual hush money itself. And then the other 627 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,880 Speaker 3: part of this being that there were political incentives here, 628 00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 3: that this was done with the effort to influence the 629 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:12,800 Speaker 3: outcome of the twenty sixteen election. So we've heard a 630 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,320 Speaker 3: lot of substance on the business side in terms of 631 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,960 Speaker 3: the actual documentation, where money was moving, who was moving it, 632 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:22,080 Speaker 3: kind of how all of this logistically worked. Perhaps the 633 00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:24,960 Speaker 3: more boring testimony perhaps that we could hear. We have 634 00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,600 Speaker 3: yet to hear some of the more salacious testimony that 635 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,560 Speaker 3: we could hear, including from Stormy Daniels, the Poor and 636 00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,040 Speaker 3: Star herself who was in question in this case, or 637 00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 3: Karen McDougall for that matter, a former Playboy model. Will 638 00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,640 Speaker 3: that be mostly just it gets the headlines, It gets 639 00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,040 Speaker 3: the attention of the jury. It's the human interest kind 640 00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,560 Speaker 3: of part of the story that kind of factors into 641 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,240 Speaker 3: this case. Or could their testimony bring real substance that 642 00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 3: informs whether or not the jury convicts him of these charges. 643 00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,760 Speaker 10: Oh, I think there's definitely substance. So what their testimony 644 00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,520 Speaker 10: will will be including because the evidence is going to 645 00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 10: be why did they agree to take the money, what 646 00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:10,480 Speaker 10: happened with mister Trump, what was his motive? And in 647 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,600 Speaker 10: the end, what the issue is for the jury, and 648 00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:16,680 Speaker 10: I think the government's going to argue is did mister 649 00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:20,280 Speaker 10: Trump intend to commit these crimes? And when you hear 650 00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,560 Speaker 10: the testimony of the two women, if you hear it 651 00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,640 Speaker 10: from Michael Cohen as so was what mister Trump was saying. 652 00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:27,600 Speaker 10: That's how they're gonna be able to put the pieces 653 00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,320 Speaker 10: together and say it's not just him signing checks. He 654 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 10: knew exactly what he was doing was wrong. 655 00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,360 Speaker 3: Well, on the subject of Michael Cohen, I'm glad you 656 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:39,280 Speaker 3: brought him up. Obviously, one of the instances or several 657 00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:41,160 Speaker 3: of them in which Trump has been found in violation 658 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,000 Speaker 3: of this gag order was attacking him, calling him things 659 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,280 Speaker 3: like a sleezebag. For example, clearly the defense is trying 660 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,480 Speaker 3: to paint him a picture of him as being an 661 00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 3: untrustworthy witness because he has in fact spent time in 662 00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,920 Speaker 3: prison and lied and all of these things. All of 663 00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 3: that is a matter of fact. Michael Cohen, of course, 664 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,680 Speaker 3: maintain is that he did so in protecting Donald Trump, 665 00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:05,280 Speaker 3: so everything should be viewed with that lens. But does 666 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,560 Speaker 3: that make him a credible or a compromised witness in 667 00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 3: your mind? 668 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:13,960 Speaker 10: Josh So, mister Cohens is obviously a difficult witness, but 669 00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,239 Speaker 10: I don't think he brings that much more baggage to 670 00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,479 Speaker 10: the table than the average cooperating witness, which is, most 671 00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:24,560 Speaker 10: cooperating witnesses are being called because they were involved in. 672 00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:25,360 Speaker 6: The scheme itself. 673 00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:29,160 Speaker 10: There's an old saying that prosecutors use, which is, you 674 00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:33,680 Speaker 10: don't call priests and rabbis to testify as to what happened, 675 00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:35,720 Speaker 10: because those aren't the type of people that commit the crimes, 676 00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:39,560 Speaker 10: and the defendant you call the co conspirators. So obviously, 677 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:41,800 Speaker 10: mister Cohen brings a lot of baggage to the table, 678 00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,200 Speaker 10: but that's sort of the point. That's the kind of 679 00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:46,960 Speaker 10: person you ask to commit a crime for you and 680 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,600 Speaker 10: with you and I think the government's going to be 681 00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,640 Speaker 10: able to weaponize that as much as mister Trump is 682 00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 10: afraid of him. 683 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:57,200 Speaker 3: Fair enough, and final question for you, Josh, as we 684 00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,920 Speaker 3: watch the remainder of this week of the trial unfold potential, 685 00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:04,440 Speaker 3: we have several more weeks to go. How important is 686 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:08,000 Speaker 3: it just the idea that the defense could so doubt 687 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,480 Speaker 3: in the mind of even just a single juror enough 688 00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:15,240 Speaker 3: to make sure that a conviction does not happen, Rather 689 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,799 Speaker 3: than trying to disprove whether or not these payments were 690 00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:21,720 Speaker 3: actually a made or anything like that, the actual evidence 691 00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:23,719 Speaker 3: of the case, where the money was going, and how 692 00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:28,000 Speaker 3: it was classified. Is it just about casting enough of 693 00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,640 Speaker 3: a shadow over this idea that this really was intended 694 00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:33,160 Speaker 3: to change the outcome of twenty sixteen. 695 00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:37,879 Speaker 10: So I think the strategy that had his lawyer's todd 696 00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,480 Speaker 10: An email and Susan are going to go after is 697 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:42,960 Speaker 10: trying to find that one jar and so the doubt. 698 00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,880 Speaker 10: They don't need to prove to twelve people that mister 699 00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,960 Speaker 10: Trump is innocent not guilty, They need to find one 700 00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:52,319 Speaker 10: person who just can't do it. Whether that's because they 701 00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,440 Speaker 10: don't want to do it, because they don't think the 702 00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:58,080 Speaker 10: fact support it. Whatever the reason is, they're just trying 703 00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:02,799 Speaker 10: to get the lowest common denometer level of proof in 704 00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,520 Speaker 10: front of one drew such that the jury hanks. 705 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:06,880 Speaker 6: I think that's his best option. 706 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,200 Speaker 10: I mean, the idea that twelve people would find him 707 00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,520 Speaker 10: not guilty is unlikely. It almost never happens in a 708 00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:15,600 Speaker 10: criminal case, but particularly one like this where the evidence 709 00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:18,160 Speaker 10: is pretty straightforward. That really the question is, you know, 710 00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:19,200 Speaker 10: did he intend to do it? 711 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:21,080 Speaker 5: All? 712 00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:21,279 Speaker 11: Right? 713 00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,520 Speaker 3: Joshnav Talis, great to have you back here on Lumberg 714 00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,960 Speaker 3: Television and Radio, former federal prosecutor and partner at Palace Partners. 715 00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:28,880 Speaker 4: We appreciate your time today. 716 00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:30,600 Speaker 3: Now, I do you just want to quickly update you 717 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,640 Speaker 3: on some breaking news we have been following throughout this hour. Hamas, 718 00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,560 Speaker 3: of course, had said in a statement that it had 719 00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,920 Speaker 3: accepted a cease fire deal proposed by Egypt and Cutter. 720 00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:42,320 Speaker 3: We now do have confirmation from the US State Department 721 00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:45,800 Speaker 3: that Hamas has issued a ceasefire response. This is according 722 00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,640 Speaker 3: to spokesperson Matt Miller. He says the US is now 723 00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:51,960 Speaker 3: reviewing that response from Hamas with regional partners. Again, we 724 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,799 Speaker 3: have not yet heard firmly from Israel whether or not, 725 00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,600 Speaker 3: They too are going to accept the proposal in question. 726 00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:00,840 Speaker 3: We will bring you more details on Andberg television and 727 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:04,080 Speaker 3: radio as we have them. We also want to get 728 00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:06,800 Speaker 3: you an update on what's happening on Capitol Hill. As Congress, 729 00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,880 Speaker 3: or at least the House is back in Washington today. 730 00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:11,840 Speaker 3: The Senate isn't going to be back until tomorrow, but 731 00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,799 Speaker 3: there is a big deadline looming at the end of 732 00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:17,680 Speaker 3: this week. The FAA reauthorization needs to happen by May tenth. 733 00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:21,279 Speaker 3: The question is will it. Jack Fitzpatrick covers Congress for 734 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,920 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Government, and he is joining me now from Capitol Hill. 735 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,239 Speaker 3: So Jack, obviously we're working under a deadline here, and 736 00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,000 Speaker 3: yet the Senate isn't even in today. Is this going 737 00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:30,680 Speaker 3: to happen in time or are we looking at another 738 00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:31,719 Speaker 3: short term extension. 739 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,479 Speaker 11: It's a real gamble at this point, they have said. 740 00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,560 Speaker 11: Senator Schumer has said he does not want another short 741 00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:42,480 Speaker 11: term extension. The key question is can they negotiate a 742 00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,520 Speaker 11: unanimous consent agreement to hold a quick vote in the Senate, 743 00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:50,080 Speaker 11: which is contingent on allowing amendments that members want. That's 744 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:52,440 Speaker 11: usually the demand from a variety of members that they 745 00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,520 Speaker 11: want an amendment on this piece of legislation that they like, 746 00:37:56,040 --> 00:38:00,200 Speaker 11: or this tweak to the bill that is still being negotiated. 747 00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,840 Speaker 11: It is not easy to get unanimous consent in the Senate, 748 00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:05,479 Speaker 11: but we know that if they don't get that via 749 00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:09,480 Speaker 11: an agreement on a package of amendment votes, likely amendments 750 00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:11,800 Speaker 11: that would fail so that they don't change the underlying 751 00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,120 Speaker 11: bill but at least give votes, then they're not going 752 00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:16,040 Speaker 11: to make the Friday deadline and they would be forced 753 00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,160 Speaker 11: to rely on a short term extension. So that's what's 754 00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:22,600 Speaker 11: being negotiated now. It is dicey when you bring in 755 00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:26,040 Speaker 11: tough major pieces of legislation and say I want an 756 00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:29,000 Speaker 11: amendment on that. For example, the tax bill that the 757 00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:32,719 Speaker 11: House passed that Senator Widen has pushed to attach to 758 00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:36,360 Speaker 11: this FAA bill. That is a tough one because this 759 00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:39,879 Speaker 11: is a carefully negotiated package, so making major changes would 760 00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:44,200 Speaker 11: also cause a hold up potentially, But they're still negotiating 761 00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,719 Speaker 11: those amendment votes and trying to get it done by 762 00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:47,479 Speaker 11: the end of this week. 763 00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:50,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess when it says it's been described the 764 00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,040 Speaker 3: last train to leave the station, everybody's going to try 765 00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,160 Speaker 3: and get as much baggage on that train is as 766 00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,480 Speaker 3: humanly possible. So we'll be watching for that in the 767 00:38:57,520 --> 00:38:58,200 Speaker 3: Senate this week. 768 00:38:58,320 --> 00:38:58,520 Speaker 7: Jack. 769 00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:00,960 Speaker 3: Meantime, in the House, we also are and watch to 770 00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:03,759 Speaker 3: see if Marjorie Taylor Green, the congresswoman from Georgia, does 771 00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:07,200 Speaker 3: as she was promised to do and actually force a 772 00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:10,480 Speaker 3: vote on her motion to vacate against how Speaker Mike Johnson. 773 00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,200 Speaker 3: Do we have any indication of when that might actually happen. 774 00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:16,800 Speaker 11: It could be as soon as today. She is supposed 775 00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:20,120 Speaker 11: to meet with the Speaker today. According to some of 776 00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:25,600 Speaker 11: my colleagues, the congresswoman has not backed down at all 777 00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:29,000 Speaker 11: from her claim that she will force a vote. She 778 00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:32,080 Speaker 11: was tweeting earlier that she's being threatened with losing her 779 00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:35,719 Speaker 11: committee assignments, so there is no detante. There is no 780 00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,560 Speaker 11: easing of tensions there. We don't know about the exact timing, 781 00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:41,880 Speaker 11: but it could be as soon as today. There is 782 00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,960 Speaker 11: a plan to vote to table it, which is a 783 00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:48,000 Speaker 11: little easier for Democrats to vote to do away with 784 00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,840 Speaker 11: the motion rather than casting a vote for Mike Johnson 785 00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,440 Speaker 11: as speaker. But as for the timing, it really is 786 00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,840 Speaker 11: up to Marjorie Taylor Green as to when she pulls 787 00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,840 Speaker 11: the trigger on this and makes it happen, and she 788 00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:02,839 Speaker 11: is not divulged exactly when that's going to happen, other 789 00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:04,560 Speaker 11: than saying that she is going to do it. 790 00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:08,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, So we'll be watching for updates from that meeting, 791 00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:09,160 Speaker 3: which is supposed to be. 792 00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:10,520 Speaker 4: A later this afternoon. 793 00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,839 Speaker 3: Jack, just quickly in our final minute with you, it's 794 00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:15,720 Speaker 3: also worth parting out that a Democratic Congressman, Henry Quaer 795 00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:18,359 Speaker 3: of Texas, was indicted by the DOJ. We learned this 796 00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:22,520 Speaker 3: on Friday, accused of accepting six hundred thousand dollars in bribes. 797 00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,919 Speaker 3: Are we going to see an effort to oust him 798 00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:28,560 Speaker 3: like we saw when Congressman former Congressman George Santos was 799 00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:31,000 Speaker 3: kicked out of the body before he was actually found 800 00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:32,120 Speaker 3: guilty in a court of law. 801 00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:36,400 Speaker 11: That is possible. We haven't gotten to that point just 802 00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:40,560 Speaker 11: yet because this just broke on late on Friday. He 803 00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:43,319 Speaker 11: did have to step down from a committee leadership role. 804 00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:47,160 Speaker 11: These are serious charges each, some of them carry sentences 805 00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,440 Speaker 11: of up to twenty years, so it's not something that 806 00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,920 Speaker 11: members are overlooking. It's certainly something to keep an eye 807 00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,920 Speaker 11: on to see if, especially starting with Republicans push for 808 00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:56,799 Speaker 11: him to resign. That is a possibility. 809 00:40:58,200 --> 00:40:59,880 Speaker 3: Well, we know you will have your eye on that 810 00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:01,879 Speaker 3: for us, as you have your eye on so many 811 00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:05,960 Speaker 3: things on Capitol Hill. Jack Fitzpatrick, Congressional reporter for Bloomberg Government, 812 00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:08,239 Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining me. 813 00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:14,279 Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 814 00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:18,040 Speaker 9: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 815 00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,680 Speaker 9: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 816 00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:24,000 Speaker 9: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 817 00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:25,720 Speaker 9: at Bloomberg dot com.